Semiconductor DQ Monday Report
Introduction to Semiconductor DQ Monday Report
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report allows Gartner
Dataquest analysts to share opinions and analysis of key
events as they unfold.
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Issue 5
Contents
DRAM Spot Market Pricing ..................................... 2
State of the Worldwide Semiconductor
Industry ....................................................................... 3
State of the Worldwide DRAM Industry ................ 6
SATA: A Quick Update ............................................. 7
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Finally: A Configurable Standard
Processor ................................................................... 10
CoWare Acquires LISATek...................................... 10
OMAP Expands......................................................... 11
Press.gartner.com ...................................................... 11
In the News ................................................................ 11
New Reports ............................................................. 12
Upcoming Gartner Conferences ............................ 12
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©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
1
2
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
DRAM Spot Market Pricing
Table 1 shows the average spot market pricing for DRAM as tracked by Gartner
Dataquest for the weeks ending 31 January and 7 February.
Table 1
DRAM Spot Market Pricing (U.S. Dollars)
31-Jan-03
64Mb (8Mbx8 PC133)
07-Feb-03
Weekly Change (%)
Low
Range
High
Range
Low
Range
High
Range
Low
Range
High
Range
1.20
1.65
1.20
1.65
0.0
0.0
128Mb (16Mbx8 PC133)
2.25
2.45
2.30
2.50
2.2
2.0
128Mb (16Mbx8 DDR266)
2.10
2.45
2.00
2.35
-4.8
-4.1
256Mb (32Mbx8 PC133)
3.50
3.85
3.60
3.95
2.9
2.6
256Mb (32Mbx8 DDR266)
4.20
4.60
4.00
4.40
-4.8
-4.3
128Mb (8Mbx16 RDRAM 400MHz)
3.55
4.00
3.55
3.95
0.0
-1.3
Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2003)
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
Last week spot pricing was mixed; pricing changes ranged from a 4.8 percent decrease to
a 2.9 percent increase. Figure 1 shows a 52-week history of average DRAM spot pricing
for the six key devices tracked.
Figure 1
Average DRAM Spot Pricing, 52-Week History
U.S. Dollars
10
64Mb PC-133
Average
9
8
128Mb PC-133
Average
7
256Mb PC133
Average
6
5
128Mb DDR266
Average
4
3
256Mb 266DDR
Average
2
128Mb RDRAM
Average
1
ar
-M
ar
19
-Ap
r
10
-M
ay
31
-M
ay
21
-Ju
n
12
-Ju
l
2-A
ug
23
-Au
g
13
-Se
p
4-O
ct
25
-O
ct
15
-N
ov
6-D
ec
27
-D
ec
17
-Ja
n
7-F
eb
29
8-M
15
-Fe
b
0
112930-00-01
Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2003)
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
3
Pricing on the 256Mb 32Mbx8 DDR266 was in the range of US$4.00 to US$4.40 — low-end
pricing was down 4.8 percent while high-end pricing was down 4.3 percent on the week.
Pricing on DDR SDRAM 128Mb devices was down 4.8 percent for low-end pricing during
the past week, while high-end pricing was down 4.1 percent. Pricing ended the week in
the range of US$2.00 to US$2.35.
Pricing on the 128Mb 16Mbx8 PC133 device was up 2.2 percent for low-end pricing for the
week, while high-end pricing was up 2.0 percent. Pricing ended the week in the range of
US$2.30 to US$2.50. Pricing on the higher-density 256Mb 32Mbx8 PC133 device was up
2.9 percent for low-end pricing for the week, while high-end pricing was up 2.6 percent.
Pricing ended the week in the range of US$3.60 to US$3.95.
RDRAM pricing was flat for low-end pricing while high-end pricing was down
1.3 percent during the week. Pricing was in the range of US$3.55 to US$3.95.
Spot pricing was mixed during the week; SDRAM was up, DDR SDRAM was down. For
the 128Mb density, spot pricing on the SDRAM device is above the DDR SDRAM devices
as supply of the older technology to the spot market has been reduced. This week is likely
to be a slow one for the spot market.
By Andrew Norwood (andrew.norwood@gartner.com)
State of the Worldwide Semiconductor Industry
Recently released World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) figures for December
2002 put semiconductor sales at US$13.5 billion, up 8 percent from US$12.4 billion in
November 2002 and up 20 percent from US$11.2 billion in December 2001.
Again, this month's technical analysis confirms that our models are working well for
short-term forecasting and continues to suggest that industry expectations for revenue
growth this year are likely to be revised down as the year progresses.
Technique One: Interpretation of Three-Month and 12-Month Growth
Curves
2002 Ends With a Whimper and Uncertainty Clouds 2003 Visibility
Figure 2 shows worldwide semiconductor revenue and three-month and 12-month
annual revenue growth. Three-month annual growth to December was 23 percent, up
slightly from September, while corresponding 12-month annual growth was 1 percent, up
from negative 6 percent the previous month.
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
As expected, rolling annual growth finally broke into positive territory in December 2002,
bringing to an end nearly 18 months of negative growth. December sales were in line with
our internal estimate of $13.5 billion.
However, the bad news is that the rate of rolling annual sales growth is expected to slow,
with the short-term outlook for quarterly sales growth looking weak in the first half of
2003. Geopolitical uncertainty is combining with normal seasonal factors to suggest flat or
lower quarterly revenue in the first quarter, followed by flat to slightly higher quarterly
revenue in the second quarter.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
4
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
Figure 2
WSTS Monthly Revenue and Growth Rates
Millions of U.S. Dollars
Percent
25
20
60
Revenue
3M ARG
12M ARG
40
20
15
0
10
-20
5
-40
0
Ja
n-9
9
Ma
r-9
Ma 9
y-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Se
p-9
No 9
v-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
r-0
Ma 0
y-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Se
p-0
No 0
v-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
r-0
Ma 1
y-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Se
p-0
No 1
v-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
r-0
Ma 2
y-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Se
p-0
No 2
v-0
2
-60
112930-00-02
Source: WSTS
The good news is that this slowdown will only be a pause, before the industry heads for
much stronger growth beginning in the second half of 2003. Unfortunately, before the
expected healthier market in 2004, the industry will have to endure another transition
year this year, with annual growth unlikely to reach double digits. From a technical
analysis standpoint, the critical quarter that will make or break 2003 as far as annual
growth is concerned is the second quarter. A relatively strong second quarter would
enable annual growth this year to reach the high end of a forecast range extending from
negative 5 to 10 percent. However, if global political tensions continue and the
macroeconomic environment shows no signs of improvement, weak business and
consumer confidence could push out spending on electronic hardware into the third
quarter. If this happens, then semiconductor revenue this year could easily struggle to
exceed those in 2002.
Our last official forecast, published in the fourth quarter of 2002, called for 12 percent
growth this year. We will soon publish our first-quarter forecast update, which will show
a reduction in our estimate for growth this year, most likely 9 percent. However, we will
be monitoring the market closely in the coming months in case a more significant
reduction in the annual growth forecast is called for in our second-quarter update.
Technique Two: A Statistical Semiconductor Forecast Model
December Actual Sales Were 1 Percent From Estimates
In last month's State of the Worldwide Semiconductor Industry update, Gartner
Dataquest’s statistical semiconductor forecast model predicted December sales to be
US$13.442 billion, with an upper bound of US$15.462 billion and a lower bound of
US$11.686 billion. Actual sales of US$13.467 billion were quite close to this estimate.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
5
Table 2 shows our forecast of WSTS monthly semiconductor sales, using a time series
statistical model. In the December release, note that WSTS made a minor revision to the
October 2002 historical data and a rather significant upward revision to the November
2002 data.
For more information, please see the Gartner Dataquest Focus Report "A Statistical
Semiconductor Forecast Model Based on Monthly WSTS Data" (SCSA-WW-FR-0121).
Table 2
Forecast of WSTS Monthly Semiconductor Sales Using Time Series Statistical
Model
Month
Actual
(US$B)
Expected Lower
Bound (US$B)
Expected
Sales (US$B)
Expected Upper
Bound (US$B)
Sep-02
14.4
12.8
14.7
16.9
Oct-02
11.7
10.8
12.5
14.2
Nov-02
12.4
10.3
11.8
13.6
Dec-02
13.5
12.1
13.9
16.0
Jan-03
NA
9.1
10.5
12.0
Feb-03
NA
9.8
11.2
12.9
Mar-03
NA
12.0
13.7
15.8
Apr-03
NA
8.9
10.2
11.8
May-03
NA
9.4
10.8
12.4
Jun-03
NA
11.0
12.7
14.6
Jul-03
NA
8.6
9.9
11.4
Aug-03
NA
9.4
10.8
12.4
Sep-03
NA
11.3
13.0
15.0
Oct-03
NA
9.1
10.5
12.0
Nov-03
NA
9.8
11.3
13.0
Dec-03
NA
10.5
12.1
13.9
NA = Not applicable
Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2002)
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
The statistical forecast model is rather sensitive to sales in the latest month. In our January
statistical forecast model release, Gartner Dataquest announced expected semiconductor
industry growth of negative 4 percent for this year. This was based on the model that
suggested a range of negative 14 percent to 8 percent growth. The latest data changes the
expected range only slightly because December's actual sales were in line with expected
sales. If the trend continues, the growth range for semiconductor sales in 2003 will be
between negative 13 percent and 9 percent, with expected growth of negative 3 percent, a
slight improvement. Though Gartner Dataquest is not officially offering a downward
revision to its 12 percent semiconductor forecast, clients should remain aware of potential
weakness in this year's semiconductor sales. For the record, the next official forecast
update will occur in our next quarterly semiconductor forecast database release. Clients
should expect the official Gartner Dataquest semiconductor forecast to move to 9 percent
growth this year. Though this remains at the high end of the 95 percent confidence
interval in our statistical model, industry expectations still call for a mild recovery in the
second half of the year.
By Richard Gordon (richard.gordon@gartner.com) and
Jeremey Donovan (jeremey.donovan@gartner.com)
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
6
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
State of the Worldwide DRAM Industry
Recently released WSTS figures for December put worldwide DRAM sales at
US$1.35 billion, down 4.5 percent from US$1.41 billion in September. Figure 3 shows
worldwide DRAM revenue and three-month and 12-month annual revenue growth.
Three-month annual revenue growth to December was 90.1 percent, down from
103.3 percent in November, while corresponding 12-month annual revenue growth was
36.2 percent, improvement from 20.5 percent the previous month.
The summary for December is that pricing was down 4.8 percent, and megabyte
shipments were up 0.2 percent, meaning that DRAM revenue was down 4.5 percent
month over month.
Figure 3
Worldwide DRAM Revenue and Three-Month, 12-Month Annual Revenue
Growth, 1998-2002
Millions of U.S. Dollars
Percent
120
3,500
100
Revenue
3M ARG
12M ARG
3,000
80
2,500
60
40
2,000
20
1,500
0
-20
1,000
-40
500
-60
-80
c-0
2
2
De
2
p-0
Se
n-0
Ju
r-0
2
1
c-0
Ma
1
De
1
p-0
Se
01
n-0
Ju
0
c-0
Ma
r-
0
De
p-0
Se
n-0
0
0
Ju
r-0
9
c-9
Ma
9
De
9
p-9
Se
n-9
Ju
r-9
9
Ma
De
c-9
8
0
112930-00-03
Source: WSTS
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
In December 2002, DRAM ASPs declined 4.8 percent to US$0.20 per megabyte. The recent
low point for ASPs was in September 2001 at US$0.13 while the most recent high was last
March at US$0.31.
Megabyte shipments reached 6.85 billion in December 2002, a 0.2 percent increased from
6.83 billion shipped the previous month. The 12-month annual bit growth moved down
10.2 percent in December 2002 to 40.8 percent.
In December 2002, the 256Mb device accounted for 71.9 percent of bit shipments, up from
69.3 percent, while 128Mb accounted for 20.7 percent, down from 23.4 percent in
December 2002. The 512Mb devices accounted for only 0.9 percent of bit shipments.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
7
From a regional perspective, the Americas showed a 6.4 percent decline in sales for
December 2002, while revenue from Europe declined 2.9 percent. Revenue from Japan
declined 11.3 percent, and Asia/Pacific revenue showed a 0.6 percent decline. The
Americas accounted for 36.8 percent of the market, Europe 20.1 percent, Japan
11.7 percent and Asia/Pacific 31.4 percent.
According to WSTS figures for 2002, revenue increased 36.2 percent; this compares with
Gartner Dataquest's preliminary 2002 DRAM market share numbers, which showed that
the market increased 36.7 percent in 2002. For more information, please see "Preliminary
DRAM Market Shares, 2002" (SEMC-WW-DP-0227).
By Andrew Norwood (andrew.norwood@gartner.com)
SATA: A Quick Update
During the next few years, serial ATA (SATA) will become the dominant standard for
physical storage interfacing on computing platforms. This next-generation technology
will replace parallel ATA (PATA), which has led that market for the past two decades in
desktop and mobile platforms.
The point-to-point technology establishes a dedicated channel between each storage
device and a host controller. The technology employs 8-bit/10-bit encoding as the method
to serialize data transmitted to and from the target storage device.
As with any point-to-point link, only a single-device-per-controller interface can be
supported. Controllers can service multiple devices, but each device requires a separate,
dedicated port. This configuration ensures each device connected will have full
bandwidth available at all times.
Features such as a thinner (four-pin) cable, dedicated high-speed serial links and error
detection mechanisms make SATA a more reliable and scalable technology than its
parallel predecessor.
Some of the most salient features that differentiate the technology are listed in Table 3.
Table 3
Serial ATA and Paralle ATA Feature Comparisson
Signaling
SATA
PATA
Serial
Parallel
Configuration
Point-to-Point
Shared Bus
Transmission
Full-Duplex
Half-Duplex
Cable Conductor Pin Count
4
40 or 80
Cable Length
1 meter
18 inches
Hot-Pluggable
Yes
No
Error Detection Features
CRC
No
Power Management
Less Power Consumption/More
Air Flow
Higher Power Consumption/Less
Air Flow
Applications
Mobile Computing
Desktop Computing
Maximum Data Rate
1.5 Gbps
1 Gbps
Performance
Full Performance to Each Drive
Shared Bandwidth Among Every
Device
Road Map
3 Gbps and 6 Gbps
No Growth Plan
Source: Gartner Datquest (February 2003)
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
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Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
SATA has a ten-year road map consisting of three product generations. The first
generation, known as SATA 1.0, was finalized in August 2001 and has a transfer rate of
150 MB/s. The second generation, which extends through mid-2004, includes the SATA II
extensions to SATA 1.0. SATA II was divided in two phases and is intended to address
individual requirements of specific storage applications. SATA II Phase 1, introduced in
October 2002, was conceived to address the requirements of network storage applications
via enclosure management specifications and cabling performance improvements.
Products based on this specification are expected to begin production during the second
half of the year.
The SATA II Phase 2 specification, under development and expected to finalize during the
second half of the year, focuses on next-generation signaling speeds of 300 MB/s.
Products based on the second phase of the specification are expected to begin production
during the second half of 2004.
With the support of an industry organization and the backing of major vendors,
interconnect technology is slowly gaining momentum. Table 4 lists some of the
SATA-based product offerings that are in production and under development.
Traditionally, PATA has been targeted at low- and midrange systems that run everyday
business applications. Gartner Dataquest expects SATA to follow the same trend of
adoption experienced by PATA. Serial technology can be considered a cost-effective
alternative, suitable for low- and midrange applications that require internal or directattached storage connectivity and run storage applications with low-to-medium
performance and reliability requirements.
For mission-critical applications requiring higher data rates, distributed configurations
(for example, storage area networks) or both, serial-attached SCSI (SAS) should be
considered a more appropriate technology to adopt, especially in cases in which SCSI and
FC are already in place.
To leverage the physical work that SATA Working Group has endured, SCSI Trade
Association is collaborating with the SATA group to develop specifications that will
ensure compatibility between systems based on these interconnect technologies.
SAS and SATA will provide solutions consistent (backward-compatible) with their
parallel counterparts. When cost is the primary design consideration, a SATA
configuration is indicated, providing a bounded solution and performance at a modest
price.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
9
Table 4
Serial ATA Product Offerings
Vendor Name
Product Code
Product Type
Product Availability
3ware
Escalade 8500 Series
SATA RAID Controller
In-Volume Production
Adaptec
NA
SATA RAID Controller
1Q03
Adaptec
NA
SATA ASIC
4Q03
Agere
NA
SATA SOC
2H03
Fujitsu
NA
2.5-inch SATA HDD
1Q03
Intel
31244
SATA Controller
1Q03
Intel
SRCS14L
SATA RAID Controller
In-Volume Production
LDIC
Atlas
ATA to SATA Controller
In-Volume Production
LDIC
Neptune
PCI-X to SATA RAID
Controller
In-Volume Production
LSI Logic
MegaRAID SATA 150-6
SATA RAID Controller
In-Volume Production
LSI Logic
MegaRAID SATA 150-2
SATA RAID Controller
In-Volume Production
LSI Logic
S-ATA 1.0 Link &
Transport
ASIC
In-Volume Production
LSI Logic
S-ATA 1.0 PHY Cores
ASIC
In-Volume Production
Marvell
88i8030
SATA Bridge
3Q03
Marvell
88SX5080
SATA Host Bus
Controller
In-Volume Production
Maxtor
NA
5400 RPM SATA HDD
1H03
Maxtor
NA
7200 PM HDD
1H03
Palmchip
BK-3719
SATA Host Bus
Controller
In-Volume Production
Promise Technology
SATA150 TX2plus
2-port SATA Controller
3Q03
Promise Technology
SATA150 TX4
4-port SATA Controller
3Q03
Qlogic
GEM424
Enclosure Management
Controller
In-Volume Production
ServerWorks
SWC-IB7453
PCI-X to SATA Quad
Host Bus Controller
Currently Sampling
ServerWorks
SWC-IB7451
PCI-X to SATA Octal Host
Bus Controller
Currently Sampling
Sierra Logic
NA
SATA Processor
Under Development
Silicon Image
Sil 3012
SATA PHY
In-Volume Production
Silicon Image
Sil 3112
PCI to SATA Host Bus
Controller
In-Volume Production
Silicon Image
Sil 3611
SATA to ATA Bridge
In-Volume Production
Vitesse
VSC7174
PCI/PCI-X to SATA Host
Bus Controller
2Q03
Vitesse
VSC420
Enclosure Management
Controller
2Q03
Vitesse
VSC425
Enclosure Management
Controller
2Q03
NA = Not applicable
Source: Gartner Datquest (January 2003)
By Marielena Oppenheimer (marielena.oppenheimer@gartner.com)
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
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Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
Finally: A Configurable Standard Processor
MIPS Technology is extending its RISC processor offerings with CorExtend, the ability of
an OEM to embed unique logic in the MIPS architecture so that specialized instructions
can perform customized operations on data to meet the needs of the OEM's application.
Standard Verilog tools allow the design of just the right functionality in instructions of
MIPS's Pro Series core processors to accelerate critical operations as determined by the
OEM. Initial Pro Series cores include the synthesizable 32-bit 4KE, M4K and 4KSd MIPS
processors.
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
During the past few years, ARC and Tensilica have tantalized designers with configurable
microprocessors that let the OEM put together the electronic equipment to not only make
use of traditional instructions but to craft its own instructions that manipulate data in the
precise way that best fits the application. Why use generic operations when a very specific
operation can do the job more efficiently? If the operation is a lengthy combination of
adds, ANDs, and branches or lots of tricky masking and rearranging of bits, a custom
instruction could speed up the task 20 times.
The problem with configurable processors was that they were built as part of a completely
different instruction set architecture, with no history, development tools or software. If
only this customization was available on an industry-standard processor. The Pro Series
gives much of this configurable freedom on the foundation of perhaps the original RISC
microprocessor. With the wide usage of the MIPS cores, broad development tool support
from third parties and legends of programs running in systems, the addition of
customizable instructions will be a welcome feature. As a widely supported licensable
core, MIPS is already in the right environment for engineers that want to hone their own
instructions in silicon. While CorExtend does not offer every capability of the full
configurable processor, by providing the ability to build individual instructions on a
leading architecture, most of the temptations of the configurables are kept at bay, and
users should be thrilled.
By Tom Starnes (tom.starnes@gartner.com)
CoWare Acquires LISATek
CoWare, the leading supplier of system-level electronic design automation (EDA)
software, announced that it has acquired LISATek, a company that automates embedded
processor creation for system-on-a-chip designs. Source: Press Release
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
Three acquisitions in the first month of the year is a good indication of what we can expect
for the rest of the year. What is impressive about this acquisition is that it is taking place at
the electronic system level (ESL). This acquisition is about the future of EDA. Once we
complete the automation of the RT level, including framework, we will be moving up to
the next level of abstraction: the ESL. Being the leader in the ESL is a fairly tenuous
position, once you understand that we do not have a working ESL methodology, which
means that we do not have an ESL flow. That of course means we really don't have a very
good idea of what EDA tools will be needed to use in the ESL Flow. CoWare understands
this as well as anyone, and they are moving rapidly to position themselves with some of
the best ESL technology available. With the recent 90-nm complexity crisis, the
development of the ESL methodology, flow and tools have become the priority of the
power users. The window of opportunity is starting to close, and many EDA vendors will
be left at the station when the ESL train pulls out.
By Gary Smith (gary.smith@gartner.com)
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
11
OMAP Expands
Texas Instruments is adding five processors to its OMAP product family. OMAP is TI's
program of data or control processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), software and
algorithms, and designs for the multimedia-rich smart phones and handheld PCs.
Running the gamut from highly integrated to powerful and expanded systems, the
OMAP730 and OMAP732 provide a well-honed GSM/GPRS Class 12 digital baseband on
a C54x DSP accompanied by an ARM processor for applications, while the three
OMAP16xx chips offer the ARM and a C55 DSP, some hardware accelerators and
numerous peripherals to run the exotic multimedia applications on a handheld. Every
chip enhances performance by using the ARM926TEJ processor core, which greatly
improves the execution of Java, graphics and multimedia. Special security hardware
tightens the protection in vulnerable portable and network-linked equipment. Some of
these chips make use of stacking in the package to add memory without expanding the
space on the circuit board that it takes up. Parts will start appearing this quarter with
production by the end of the year.
Gartner Dataquest Analysis
TI continues to expand its OMAP offering with these announcements. TI's biggest
strength is the firm grasp it has on the underlying wireless phone technology in which
these handheld devices connect to the cellular network. TI is open to every application OS
standard as Palm, Microsoft PocketPC and Symbian develop followings behind its
advanced offerings. The ARM926 is a standard processor that will attract broad support
from application developers. The variety of TI's chips from performance to integration
means that OEMs will find a chip or chipset that fits the target criteria of the handheld
device. With its DSP pedigree, having a DSP readily at hand for the applicationprocessing and not just for the baseband is a good bonus in the media-rich future. Adding
not-quite-external memory by stacking 256MB of DRAM in the package keeps
performance high while assuring a small footprint and ready flexibility for other memory
configurations. Competition is heating up in the handheld market, so the availability,
selection, performance, power consumption, cost and support of these central chips will
be key to success as cellular phones move to third-generation (3G) phones and become
"smart," personal digital assistants (PDAs) go multimedia, "killer apps" emerge and
corporations embrace PDAs.
By Tom Starnes (tom.starnes@gartner.com)
Press.gartner.com
Press.gartner.com is designed to guide you through the correct procedure of
obtaining a Gartner Dataquest analyst's quote. If your company would like to issue a
press release quoting one of our analysts, you must submit your request to
quote.requests@gartner.com. Standard requests will be approved within 48 hours.
In the News
JMAR Restructures Operations
JMAR Technologies said that it will restructure and streamline its operations to improve
profitability and better support the commercialization of its emerging CPL semiconductor
manufacturing systems and related technology. Under the restructuring, JMAR will sell
its JMAR Precision Systems motion and metrology equipment manufacturing operation
in Chatsworth, California, and form its JMAR Research, JMAR/SAL NanoLithography
and JMAR semiconductor operations in a single corporate entity with three specialized
divisions.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
12
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
ON Reports 4Q02 and 2002 Results
ON Semiconductor said revenue in the fourth quarter of 2002 was US$266 million, a
decrease of US$6 million, or 2 percent, from the third quarter of 2002 and a decrease of
US$1 million from the fourth quarter of 2001. ON reported a net loss of US$42 million in
the fourth quarter of 2002, which included US$17.5 million of restructuring and other
charges, compared with a net loss of US$23 million in the third quarter of 2002. Revenue
for 2002 was US$1.1 billion, down 11 percent from $1.2 billion in 2001. The net loss for
2002 was US$150 million. The gross margin increased to 26.3 percent in 2002 from
17.7 percent in 2001. This increase in gross margin was driven by manufacturing cost
reductions as well as the release of newer, higher-margin products.
ST Unveils Details of Nomadik
STMicroelectronics' family of multimedia application processor chips will enable portable
terminals to play music, take pictures, record video and host two-way visual
communications in real time. These processors are aimed at 2.5G/3G mobile phones,
PDAs and other portable wireless products with multimedia capability. In addition, the
family of chips will find applications in automotive multimedia. Called "Nomadik," ST's
multimedia application processor family offers ultra-low power consumption. ST will
deliver the first samples of Nomadik processors using 130-nm technology early this year.
These processors will be offered in a stacked package with flash memory chips. ST said
that future versions of the chips will be in 90-nm CMOS and include support for 3D
graphics and content security.
New Reports
YE02 Semiconductor Manufacturing Market: Packaging Equipment
Although the first half of 2002 saw a mild upturn in spending for assembly equipment,
the market remained stagnant for the remainder of the year. A significant upturn is likely
in 2003. (Gartner Dataquest Focus Report, SCEM-WW-FR-0146, 5 February 2003,
US$1,295)
Asia/Pacific Semiconductor Consumption by Electronic Application
Forecast, Winter 2002
After growing an estimated 7 percent in 2002, the value of semiconductors consumed in
Asia/Pacific for electronics is expected to grow another 14 percent in 2003, attaining a
five-year growth rate of 13 percent by 2006. (Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics,
SCSI-AP-MS-0123, 30 January 2003, US$6,995)
Upcoming Gartner Conferences
Gartner and Gartner Dataquest host the IT industry's most respected conferences and
strategic forums in locations around the world. For more information, please contact
Gartner Worldwide Events from within the United States at +1-800-778-1997 or visit the
Gartner Web site at gartner.com.
Breakfast Briefing
Semiconductor Industry and Market Update, 1Q03
Gartner Dataquest invites you to attend the Semiconductor Industry and Market Update,
1Q03 Breakfast Briefing on Thursday 27 February at 7:30 a.m. Pacific at our San Jose office
on 251 River Oaks Parkway. Registration will begin at 7 a.m.
As the latest semiconductor industry upcycle struggles to gain traction, Gartner
Dataquest's semiconductor team will present the latest (first quarter 2003) update to our
semiconductor forecast and our latest thinking on the outlook for manufacturing.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
13
Agenda
■
7:30 a.m.-8:30 a.m. — Breakfast with the analysts (join us for breakfast and meet
with the semiconductor group's team of analysts)
■
8:30 a.m.-9:15 a.m. — Device Market Update (Mary Olsson and Team)
■
9:15 a.m.-9:30 a.m. — Interactive Questions and Answers/Break
■
9:30 a.m.-10:15 a.m. — Applications Market Update (Jeremey Donovan and Team)
■
10:15 a.m.-10:30 a.m. — Interactive Questions and Answers/Break
■
10:30 a.m.-11:15 a.m. — Manufacturing Update (Klaus Rinnen and Team)
■
11:15 a.m.-11:30 a.m. — Interactive Questions and Answers/Break
■
11:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m. — Networking with Analysts
The cost of this briefing is US$129. To register, please e-mail or fax the form below to
Becky Tonnesen at becky.tonnesen@gartner.com or +1-408-468-8055.
NAME________________________________TITLE_______________
COMPANY_________________________________________________
ADDRESS__________________________________________________
CITY_______________________________________________________
STATE_____________________________________________________
ZIP CODE__________________________________________________
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Credit Card receipts will be faxed to your office when processing has been completed.
©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
10 February 2003
14
Semiconductor DQ Monday Report, Issue 5
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