ANNEX 1: Main elements for the construction of the CAFE Baseline

ANNEX 1: MAIN ELEMENTS
SCENARIO
FOR THE
CONSTRUCTION
OF THE
CAFE BASELINE
For the CAFE baseline scenario, it is envisaged to that three main elements are needed: i)
projections of emission generating activities, ii) emission inventories and emission
control options and iii) information about the penetration of emission control measures.
The role of these elements in the construction of the CAFE baseline are discussed in this
annex.
A.1 Projections of Emission Generating Activities
Baseline projections will include assumptions about the general economic development,
such as
(i) GDP growth rates for the different economic sectors,
(ii) energy (specifying demand and supply of different fuel types at the various economic
sectors),
(iii) agricultural production (e.g., number of animals, type of agricultural practice),
(iv) transport (e.g., fuel consumption by vehicle types, off-road activities, etc.) and
(v) industrial production (distinguishing a different kinds of goods and their production
methods).
RAINS will compile three perspectives of future economic development and its
consequences to the use of, e.g., energy and transport services. One will reflect the most
recent projections made for the European Commission (i.e., the Energy Outlook 2030
developed by DG-TREN1).
In order to understand the significance of the Kyoto Protocol, additional analysis is
required. This is because it is not known at the moment to what extent the Member States
will take advantage of the flexible mechanisms2 of the Kyoto Protocol and what the
consequent effects on the fuel mix (and thus air pollution) are likely to be. It needs to be
emphasised that the emissions of greenhouse gases after 2012 are not governed by the
first commitment period (2008-12) of the Kyoto Protocol.
Thus, a variant with additional climate policies will be analysed as a second baseline
scenario.
1
The forthcoming Energy Outlook 2030 does not make assumptions on how Member States are likely to
achieve their Kyoto commitments. Thus, the exact consequences to energy mix are not known either,
given the potentials for reducing non-CO2 gases as well as flexible mechanisms, etc. The energy
baseline includes current policies and those in the process of being implemented. However, the
construction of Kyoto scenarios is under consideration as part of Energy Outlook 2030. Such Kyoto
scenarios involve new additional policies to reduce CO2 emissions that have not yet been agreed or
implemented.
2
International Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism.
Using the same macro-economic assumptions as applied for the energy projections, the
baseline development of the transport sector will be developed under the TREMOVE
contract using the SCENES model.
As it is possible that views of Member States and Accession Candidate Countries on the
driving forces of emissions are slightly different from those of the Commission, it is
important to include such views when the CAFE baseline is developed. Thus a third
baseline will reflect projections of different Member States. Naturally it is desirable that
these projections are as close as possible, but it is understandable that, e.g. due to timing
differences, some divergences may appear.
Nevertheless, the baseline variant scenarios need to be based on full compliance with
existing and adopted international agreements as well as Community-wide and national
legislation. Thus, they must comply not only e.g. with the Air Quality, LCP and NEC
directives but also with the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets that the EU
Member States have ratified in the Kyoto Protocol3.
In order to comply with the CAFE work plan, Member States and Accession Candidate
Countries will need to provide their national projections of emission generating activities,
i.e., by December 2002, following article 8.1 of the NEC Directive (see also section
4.2.1) and the guidelines for estimating and reporting emission data of the CLRTAP.
Member States are furthermore obliged to provide projections of activity data (energy,
transport, agriculture, waste) and of greenhouse gas emissions under the EU Monitoring
Mechanism for CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions (Council Decision 93/389/EEC)
by 31 December 20024. It would be very helpful if Accession Candidate Countries also
provided such information – on a voluntary basis. All this information will also be useful
for CAFE.
A.2 Emission Inventories and Emission Control Options
A.2.1 Emission Inventories
The second ingredient for an emission baseline scenario is an accurate description of the
structural composition of the emission sources in the base year. If the year 20005 will be
used as base year for CAFE, detailed emission inventories for this year will be necessary
for the analysis.
According to NEC directive (article 8.1.), Member States must provide to the
Commission emission inventories for the year 2000 (and 2001) before 31 December
3
When developing the baseline scenarios it is also important to deal with possible non compliance of
existing legislation. This issue was raised in the note “Wisdom starts from facing the facts:
Construction of the baseline in CAFE”, which was discussed in the CAFE Steering Group on 11-12
December 2001. The note stated e.g. that “the CAFE Secretariat is of the view that the CAFE baseline
should include implementation failure where there are clear signs that this is likely to occur.”
4
A workshop was organised, under the Monitoring Mechanism, on national energy and greenhouse gas
projections in February 2002. Information is available at:
http://etc-acc.eionet.eu.int/docs/meetings/0201_EnProjWS_27feb2002/meeting0201.html
Note: a report at the end of the year is for the previous year's emissions. Thus the report at the end of
2002 is reporting the emissions of 2001.
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2
2002 as well as projections for 2010, using the nomenclature for reporting (NFR) as
agreed upon by the CLRTAP (see below).
In addition, under the CLRTAP, all Member States and Accession Candidate Countries
are obliged to report their emissions for the year 2000 (and 2001) in the NFR6 that suits
the needs for integrated assessment modelling before February 15, 2003. For the
construction of the CAFE baseline and variant scenarios it is of important that all Parties
to CLRTAP follow these reporting requirements.
Under the EU greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism the Member States shall also report
by 31 December 2002 their emissions by sources and removals by sinks of the Kyoto
Protocol greenhouse7 in the year 2000, and all underlying activity data (e.g. energy
balances, number of animals) in the Common Reporting Format (CRF). These underlying
data can provide additional information for improving the quality of emission inventories
and activity data within CAFE.
Lastly, under the IPPC directive, Member States will have to report before June 2003 on
emissions coming from main industrial sources (Commission decision of 17 July 2000 on
European Pollutant Emission Register, EPER). The data in EPER may be a useful source
when the inventories are validated.
The emission inventories from Member States are essential to calibrate the databases of
the RAINS model, so that emission projections have a validated starting point. In other
words, with the calibration we ensure that the emission control measures introduced in
Member States and Accession Candidate Countries by the year 2000 are accurately
reflected in RAINS baseline and other scenarios.
A.2.2 Emission Control Options
The RAINS model contains databases describing the technical and economic features of
available emission control options. The present RAINS databases for controlling SO2,
NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions were reviewed by Member States in the course of
preparing the NEC directive. For CAFE it will be necessary
(1)
to include information about new emission control technologies that could
realistically gain relevant market shares in the coming years,
(2)
to incorporate non-technical measures, and
(3)
to describe the remaining emission control potentials in more detail (e.g., for
small domestic stoves, off-road mobile sources, etc.).
It is planned that these extensions will be carried out in cooperation with the IPTS/JRC8
Sevilla and the Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGTEI) established under
6
For details please consult the Draft Guidelines for Estimating and Reporting Emissions Data available
at http://www.unece.org/env/documents/2002/eb/ge1/eb.air.ge.1.2002.7e.pdf
7
These are CO2, CH4, N2O and fluorinated gases (HFC, PFC and SF6)
8
The IPPC Bureau is based at the IPTS. The European IPPC Bureau catalyses an exchange of technical
information on best available techniques under the IPPC Directive 96/61/EC by compiling reference
3
CLTRAP, with the possibility of holding a specific workshop where these issues will be
discussed with stakeholders. The revised databases will be made available for review to
all stakeholders.
A.3 Penetration of Emission Control Measures
The third essential element of an emission baseline scenario is a thorough understanding
of the penetration of emission control measures at the various sources in each country.
While the general provisions of Community-wide legislation are clearly specified,
information about country-specific implementation plans will be critical for an accurate
emission projection.
Under Article 8(2) of the National Emission Ceilings Directive 2001/81/EC, Member
States are obliged to report information on adopted and envisaged policies and measures
and quantified estimates of the effect of these policies and measures on emissions of the
pollutants in 2010 to the Commission by 31 December 2002. The contractors will review
the information provided by Member States and introduce it into the model databases.
Note that by date of accession, the Accession Candidate Countries (ACC) need to agree
what their country specific emissions ceilings would be. The Commission has specified
that the ACC would adhere at least to the ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol. As part of
the screening exercise the ACC have informed the Commission on the steps they have
taken to implement the NEC directive. By accession, the ACC need to give the list of
measures. In other words, for the CAFE baseline, information on these measures will not
arrive on time, unless the ACC provide this on voluntary basis. If no information were
provided, we would know that the baseline emissions would be compatible with the
Gothenburg Protocol but we would not know how the emissions would be reduced.
The deadline for submitting the plans and programmes to meet the limit values of the
First Air Quality Daughter Directive is 31 December 2003, i.e., not in time for the
development of the CAFE baseline, but perhaps still useful for further integrated
assessment modelling. For instance the plans and programmes reported by countries
could be plugged into the integrated assessment model and we could see their cost and
environmental implications.
documents (BREFs). The results of the IPPC Bureau provide therefore an important input for the
CAFE baseline analysis.
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