International Expert’s Meeting on Strengthening R&D Effectiveness in the Light
of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (CN-235)
February 17-21, 2015
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LLNL-PRES-666679
This work was performed under the
auspices of the U.S. Department
of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract
DE-AC52-07NA27344. Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC
Hazardous airborne releases are a rapid and effective means to impact large populations.
NARAC has capabilities to respond to toxic industrial chemical spills, nuclear-power plant
accidents, fires, radiological dispersal devices (RDDs), nuclear detonations, chemical/biological
agents, and some natural airborne hazards.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
2
National Atmospheric Release
Advisory Center (NARAC)
Plume model predictions
w 
Airborne or Ground Contamination
w 
Dose
w 
Protective Action Guidelines
Access to world-wide weather data and
geographical information
NARAC
Capabilities
Provides real-time
predictions of atmospheric
transport of radioactivity
from a nuclear accident or
incident
w 
Observed & forecast weather data
w 
Terrain & land surface
w 
Maps
w 
Population
Real-time access to NARAC models
w 
Unclassified (Internet / Web) and
classified communications
w 
Standalone simple plume models
24x7 scientific & technical support
3
LLNL Computer Systems
Central System: Automated model set-up and execution software Measurement
CBRN Material
Dose/Risk
Weather Data & Geographic/Terrain
Data
Property Data
Data
Factor Data
Forecasts
Data-driven
Source
Prompt Effects
3-D Meteorological, Dispersion
modeling tools
models
Models
and Fallout Models
Mapping and product
Population, casualty and
generation software
fatality estimation
User interfaces and
Analysis Tools for
LLNL scientists
Remote Access
Computer System
Internet/Intranet
HotSpot
EPICode
Standalone models
and mapping
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
External
User Tools
CM/NARAC/IXP Web
• Over 400 software
applications
• 50 databases
• 3 million lines of
computer code
• 28 servers
• 8 data storage
systems
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Daily weather forecasts to
support mission planning
and situational awareness
Hypothetical NRC
scenario
§  Estimates of possible dose
in Japan based on
hypothetical U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission
radionuclide release
scenarios to support
protective action planning
for U.S. citizens in Japan
Predictions of Possible US
Arrival Times and Dose
§  Predictions of possible
arrival times and dose
levels at U.S. locations
§  Source term estimation
and plume model
refinement based on field
data
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Source estimation and model
refinement
Sugiyama et al.,2012: Health Physics, 102, p 493–508
LLNL-PRES-666679
5
§  Collaborative effort with US
Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) for
nuclear power plant accidents
• 
Expanded electronic files
to share/import complex
nuclear power plant
release information into
NARAC model simulations
• 
Default set of nuclear
reactor release scenarios
• 
Exploratory efforts to
determine whether/how
SNL’s MELCOR severe
accident analysis code
could be effectively
coupled to atmospheric
dispersion models
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Different iodine gas
partitioning:
•  (Left) 100%
respirable particles
•  (Right) 25% particles
in respirable size
range, 45%
organically-bound
gas, and
30% inorganic gas
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) used to provide high-resolution meteorology
•  Solves atmospheric equations of momentum, heat, and moisture
•  Provides efficient model nesting capability
•  Provides additional meteorological fields (e.g. precipitation)
•  4-dimensional data assimilation (4DDA) found to improve the accuracy of WRF simulations
when a sufficient density of observations is available
•  Analysis nudging on outer domains
•  Observational nudging capability on inner domain
•  Sensitivity of results to user specification of observation radius of influence (smaller radii
typically improve results in complex terrain)
• 
Surface weather stations used in
4DDA study
WRF predicted 2013 Dec 09 12:00 UTC
snow depth w/o observational nudging
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
WRF simulation with observational
nudging improves predicted snow depth
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Particle dry deposition: Petroff &
Predicted
relative
ground
deposition
pattern
without (right)
and with (left)
spatially and
temporallyvarying
precipitation
scavenging
Zhang (2010)
•  Parameterizes effects of
vegetation canopies
•  Applicable/validated against
widest range of land-use types
§  Gas dry deposition: Wesley (1998
& 2002) surface canopy
resistance model
§  Particle-size and precipitation-rate
dependent wet deposition with
separate treatment of in-cloud
and below-cloud processes
•  In-cloud scavenging: Hertal et
al. (1995) and Stohl et al.
(2010)
•  Below-cloud scavenging: Slinn
(1984) and Loosmore &
Cederwall (2005)
•  Height of cloud base and top:
Seiber & Arnold (2013)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
GFS
Comparison
of Japan
wet
deposition
pattern from
lower
resolution
GFS/LODI
(left) and
higher
resolution
WRF/LODI
(right)
simulation
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Building-resolving computational fluid
dynamics model Aeolus coupled to Lagrangian
dispersion code
•  First principles physics solution
•  Particulate, gas, and denser than air gases
for static and moving sources
§  Rapid automated model grid generation using
NARAC US Cities based on NGA/USGS
building data
§  Fast-running Reynolds Averaged Navier-
RANS simulation
Stokes model (RANS) steady state solution
and higher-fidelity time-dependent Large Eddy
Simulation (LES) solution
§  Excellent performance for 12 different tracer
releases from Joint Urban 2003 field study
§  Computational performance suitable for
operational applications
§  Current effort to add radiological material
properties, source terms and processes
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LES simulation including building deposition
Akshay Gowardhan
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Modeling of effects of building sheltering/
shielding to calculate indoor dose exposures
and improve casualty estimates
§  LLNL PFscreen model provides estimates of
building protection factors
§  LLNL Regional Sheltering Analysis tool
estimates potential protection against gamma
radiation for a variety of shelter strategies
based on existing database of building
properties (e.g., U.S. FEMA HAZUS data)
Pfscreen
Building Protection Factor =
ratio of outdoor/indoor exposures = 4
Outdoor
Exposure
1 m agl
1 R/hr
Infinite Plane of Fallout Radiation
Indoor
Exposure
0.25 R/hr
§  Infiltration models and building leakiness
databases
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
PFScreen: Steve Homann
LLNL-PRES-666679
RSA: Michael Dillon
10
§  DOE-funded compute cluster integrated
into NARAC operational system
§  Software performance enhancements
•  Core physics model run times reduced
from 2 hours to 5 min for complex
problems
•  Model output pre- and post-processing
times reduced from 1+ hour to 10 min
for large problems
•  Improved restart capability
•  On-going performance optimization of
meteorological data processing
software and other subsystems
Configuration
§  336 processor
cores (3.46 GHz
Intel 5690 chipset)
§  1344 GB total
memory (4 GB/
processing core)
§  High-speed
communications
network/switch (40
Gbit QDR)
§  Linux-based
system
Software upgrades and cluster utilization have reduced computational times for
complex long-duration simulations involving multiple radionuclides by a factor of 25
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
S. Larsen et al.
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Initial model predictions
guide measurement
surveys
Measurement surveys and
sensor data (DOE field &
AMS)
Updated predictions using
measurement data
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Measurement data
transferred
electronically to LLNL/
NARAC
Software selects, filters and
statistically compares
measurements and predictions
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Monitoring / Field Data
-  Multi-agency data / databases
-  Electronic data acquisition
(standardized and custom
formats)
Aerial Measurement - Gamma
Spectroscopy
In situ field assays – Gamma Spec,
Alpha/Beta Survey, Dose Rate
Air Filters (paper, charcoal) – Gamma
Spec, Alpha/Beta Counters, Lab
Analysis
Soil and Soil Cores – Gamma Spec,
Lab Chemistry
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Data
Processing
-  Electronic
acquisition
-  Quality assurance
-  Filtering, grouping,
outlier elimination
-  Background
corrections
-  Source ratio
scaling
Data-Model
Comparisons Refined
Model Predictions
Graphical/Statistical Data/
Model Comparison Tools
-  Data-model comparisons paired in space
time
-  Statistical metrics (e.g. bias, [geometric]
variance, standard deviation, root mean /
normalized mean square area, factor of R)
-  Measurement map displays
-  Graphical model-data
LLNL-PRES-666679
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for null data)
§  Cost functional minimization
§  Source-receptor optimization starting with a
priori estimate (“predictor-corrector”)
§  Bayesian inferencing and stochastic
sampling
• 
• 
Statistically-rigorous technique
Backwards analyses to determine
probabilistic distribution of unknown
source characteristics
• 
Optimal forward predictions for
consequence assessment
• 
Dynamic reduction in uncertainty as
additional data become available
• 
Complex sources (e.g., multiple,
moving)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
NARAC
chemical
odor source
location
analysis
based on
backward
trajectories
1250
Measured
SET 3
24-Hr Averaged Air Concentration(uBq/m3)
§  Backward trajectory methods (accounting
1000
Ispra, Italy
750
500
250
0
01 June 02 June 03 June 04 June 05 June 06 June 07 June
Measurement Ending Date
NARAC
operational
analysis
reconstruction of
probable source
area and emission
rate for Algeciras
steel mill Cs-137
release
Chemical Odor Analysis: Matthew Simpson
LLNL-PRES-666679
Algeciras: Luca Delle Monache
14
§  NARAC-hosted CMweb system used to store
and share information with DOE and the
supported interagency community
•  Model predictions (300+ analyses and 115
shared products)
•  Radiological measurement data
•  Mapped data products
•  Reports
•  Status logs
§  NARAC-hosted International eXchange Program
(IXP) Web-based system allows DOE-authorized
users to:
•  Run radiological atmospheric dispersion and dose
calculations on a NARAC computer system
•  Receive dispersion and dose calculations done by
experts at NARAC and other Global Dose
Assessment Centers (GDACs) in Japan (JAEA)
and Russia (FEERC)
§  IXP used by approximately 40 countries and 3
international organizations
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Tool tip help explains contents of a
folder
Status and contents of each folder is
now indicated
• For large event/exercise, check the box at top, next to “Name”, to
create all Folders and Blogs
• For limited events or for testing, check boxes for individual
Folders/Blogs you would like to include (to avoid time consuming
effort to delete unneeded folders)
• Then,
click
“Create Folders” Brenda Pobanz, Joe Guensche, Bill Eme
Lawrence Livermore
National
Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Estimate potential dose bases
on route and stay times
•  Select route by clicking on
monitoring route points
•  Upload monitoring route or
use DOE “10 Point Plan”
•  Edit arrival times and stay
times
•  Shift route times to account
for time variation of
groundshine dose
•  Display calculated dose rate,
dose, instrument readings
•  Extensions: aerial monitoring
and evacuation planning
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Brenda Pobanz, Joe Guensche, Bill Eme
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  U.S. DOE is leading the development of
radiological/nuclear “Briefing Products”
•  Goal: improve the communication of
technical information to planners,
decision makers, and emergency
responders
•  Focus on actions and decisions that
need to be considered (evacuation/
sheltering, relocation, worker protection,
agricultural embargoes)
•  Based on existing pertinent agency-
published documents for guidance
•  Developed with extensive interagency
input
§ 
Designed for Subject Matter Experts
briefing of officials and responders (not
intended for the general public)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Briefing Products available for nuclear
power plant accidents, radiological
dispersal devices, nuclear detonations,
and chemical/biological releases
K. Yu (LLNL), K. Foster (ret.), H. Clark (RSL)
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Model improvements
§  Data-model fusion enhancements
§  Enhanced products and tools to support decision makers and responders
§  Procedural and software management updates to assist in managing large
volumes of information during major events
§  Training to increase skill level and experience of scientific and technical
staff critical in handling complex analyses on an emergency basis and
developing non-standard types of analysis and products on the fly
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Web: narac.llnl.gov
Email: narac@llnl.gov
Event Information
§ 
Weather data
§ 
Nuclear, radiological,
chemical, and biological
source information
§ 
§ 
Terrain, land use, and
population databases
Measurement data and
observations
Operational Services and
Expertise
§  Suite of stand-alone to
advanced WMD modeling
tools (multi-scale models)
Actionable Information
§ 
Hazard areas and affected
populations
§ 
Health effect, public
protective action, and
worker protection levels
based on federal
guidelines
§ 
Casualty, fatality, and
damage estimates
§ 
Planning and consequence
assessments
§  24/7/365 expert scientific
staff (< 5 min. reach-back)
§  Detailed analysis, expert
interpretation, quality
assurance, and training
§  Event reconstruction
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Standard suites of CBRN technical products
Briefing
products for
radiological
dispersal
devices, nuclear
detonations,
nuclear power
plant accidents,
CB releases
that show plume hazard areas, affected
populations, health effects, protective action
guide levels, and geographical information
§  Consequence reports documenting results,
inputs, assumptions, and plot interpretation
§  Interagency-developed Briefing Products for
decision makers and emergency responders
focused on actions that need to be
considered to protect the public and the
environment
Evacuation / shelter-in-place, relocation,
worker protection, agricultural embargo
•  Operational products: radiological
dispersal devices, nuclear detonations,
nuclear power plant accidents
•  Draft versions: toxic industrial chemicals,
chemical/biological agents
Animations and time
series plots to display
evolving impacts
• 
§  Supplementary analyses (meteorology,
deposition, field data, animations)
§  Product output in multiple formats for
integration into user’s GIS systems
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
PDF, PowerPoint,
HTML/XML, JPG/PNG
graphics
ESRI Shape and
Google Earth KMZ GIS
files with plume areas
Briefing Products: Kevin Foster, Kristen Yu (LLNL),
LLNL-PRES-666679
Harvey Clark (RSL)
22
§  DOE/NNSA mission: Assess
the consequences of releases
from the Fukushima Daiichi
Nuclear Power Plant
§  DOE/NNSA deployed
personnel and home teams
•  Predictive modeling
•  Air/ground monitoring and
sample collection
•  Laboratory sample analysis
•  Dose assessment
•  Data interpretation
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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AMS dose rate
measurement
points from
aircraft
Model
predicted dose
rate areas
NARAC modeled dose rate levels overlaid
with March 18 AMS data. Meteorology
based on Japanese weather observations
NARAC modeled dose rate levels overlaid
with March 26 AMS data (data not used in
source estimation process).
Dose rate levels greater than 100, 10, 1, 0.1, 0.01 µGy h-1 (10, 1, 0.1, 0.01, 0.001 mrad h-1)
areLivermore
shown as
darkLaboratory
red, red, dark orange, orange, and yellow contours respectively 24
Lawrence
National
LLNL-PRES-666679
March 14, 2011 10:00 UTC
March 14, 2011 19:00 JST
March 15, 2011 06:00 UTC
March 15, 2011 15:00 JST
March 14, 2011 20:00 UTC
March 15, 2011 05:00 JST
March 16, 2011 01:00 UTC
March 16, 2011 10:00 JST
• Time series shows combined air
immersion dose and ground
shine dose from the
accumulation of ground
contamination during March 14
0600 – March 16 0100 UTC
•  Dose rate contours:
120.0 µGy h-1 (red)
4.0 µGy h-1 (dark orange)
0.4 µGy h-1 (orange)
0.04 µGy h-1 (dark yellow)
0.004 µGy h-1 (yellow)
(12, 0.4, 0.04, 0.004, 0.0004
mrad/hr)
•  Baseline” release estimate
from March 14 0600 UTC to
March 16 0100 UTC
(Sugiyama et al., 2012,
Health Physics)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  Significantly reduced time for complex NARAC
atmospheric dispersion simulations, using new dedicated
336-processor compute cluster and optimized software. (Run
times reduced by factor of 10-100, e.g., from 2 hours to 5
min)
§  Development of higher-resolution modeling of dry
deposition and precipitation / wet deposition, which was
key to prediction of ground contamination levels in Japan
§  Expanded electronic files to import complex nuclear
power plant release information from US Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC) in to NARAC model
simulations, and created a default set of release scenarios
§  New decision-maker briefing versions of NARAC
products for nuclear power plant accident scenarios for more
effective communication of information on actions that are
warranted to protect workers and the public (e.g., evacuation,
sheltering, relocation) in collaboration with DHS/FEMA and
other US government agencies
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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Model was validated using data from 12 different
trials during Joint Urban 2003 field campaign
§  Concentrations predicted by the model were found
to be in good agreement with the field data (~50%
were predicted within a factor of 2, ~70% within a
factor of 5 and ~80% within a factor of 10)
§  Performance on quad-core laptop
•  RANS model took ~200 sec for each of these
cases (4.5 million grid points)
•  Lagrangian dispersion model took ~80 sec
(using 0.5 million particles)
§ 
Contours of 30 minute averaged concentration overlaid
with 30 min averaged field concentration data (color
coded circle): horizontal slice (x-y plane) at 2 m AGL.
Scatter plot of predicted
and observed 30 minute
averaged concentration
(g/m3) paired in space
and time on a horizontal
slice (xy plane) at 2 m
above ground level
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Aeolus predicts
Important urban flow
features including
channeling, reversed
flow, vortices,
divergence etc.
LLNL-PRES-666679
Aeolus: Akshay Gowardhan
27
§  Data imported in a variety of formats for importing measurement data
(e.g., XML, Excel, CSV, ASCII text/table)
§  Graphical displays for displaying and comparing measurement data
with plume model predictions (geospatial and time series
representations, text-based output, scatter plots, Google Earth
overlays)
§  Rapid selection, grouping, and editing of measurement data for
analyses (e.g., geospatial inclusion/exclusion zones, centerline-located
data, measurement sampling, minimum/maximum data ranges,
streamlined capabilities for fast turnaround)
§  Identification and removal of measurement outliers using Pierce and
Gould data rejection method
§  Statistical comparison of measurements and predictions using
measurement-to-model ratio statistics (e.g., percentage of values with
factor R, bias, etc.)
§  GUI-based post-processing capabilities to linearly scale predicted
source term quantities
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
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§  International eXchange Program (IXP) is a
Web-based system that allows authorized
users around the world to:
• 
Run radiological atmospheric dispersion
and dose calculations on a NARAC
computer system for their country only
• 
Receive dispersion and dose calculations
done by experts at NARAC and other
Global Dose Assessment Centers (GDACs)
in Japan (JAEA) and Russia (FEERC)
§  The IXP web site https://ixp.llnl.gov/ provides
secure and password-controlled access for
users approved by DOE/NNSA and their
country’s competent authority
§  The IXP is used by approximately 40 countries
and 3 international organizations including the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
European Commission Joint Research Centre,
Nuclear Energy Agency, Org. for Economic
Cooperation and Development)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
29
§  NARAC Operations Scientists, Customer
Support, System Administrators, Systems
Team – plume modeling, CMweb support,
24/7 systems support, tool updates
§ 
RSL/SNL/LANL/LLNL CMHT – monitoring
data; health physics support
§  CMHT Laboratory Team – sample analysis
§  Radiological Triage – Spectral analysis for
isotopic mix
§  DOE HQ Nuclear Incident Team –
Management, coordination and
prioritization of Interagency and White
House tasking
§  NRC – reactor and spent fuel source term
DOE/NNSA Principal Deputy
Administrator Neile Miller (in yellow)
with the NARAC team.
analyses
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
LLNL-PRES-666679
30
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