Teaching & Learning Plans Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses Junior Certificate Syllabus Leaving Certificate Syllabus The Teaching & Learning Plans are structured as follows: Aims outline what the lesson, or series of lessons, hopes to achieve. Prior Knowledge points to relevant knowledge students may already have and also to knowledge which may be necessary in order to support them in accessing this new topic. Learning Outcomes outline what a student will be able to do, know and understand having completed the topic. Relationship to Syllabus refers to the relevant section of either the Junior and/or Leaving Certificate Syllabus. Resources Required lists the resources which will be needed in the teaching and learning of a particular topic. Introducing the topic (in some plans only) outlines an approach to introducing the topic. Lesson Interaction is set out under four sub-headings: i. Student Learning Tasks – Teacher Input: This section focuses on teacher input and gives details of the key student tasks and teacher questions which move the lesson forward. ii. Student Activities – Possible and Expected Responses: Gives details of possible student reactions and responses and possible misconceptions students may have. iii. Teacher’s Support and Actions: Gives details of teacher actions designed to support and scaffold student learning. iv. Checking Understanding: Suggests questions a teacher might ask to evaluate whether the goals/learning outcomes are being/have been achieved. This evaluation will inform and direct the teaching and learning activities of the next class(es). Student Activities linked to the lesson(s) are provided at the end of each plan. Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses Aims • To learn that by tossing two coins and observing the results (two heads, two tails, one head and one tail) not all results are equally likely Prior Knowledge Students should have prior knowledge (from T&L Plan 1 and/or from primary school) of some terms associated with chance and uncertainty. They should be familiar with probability expressed as fraction or decimal in the range 0 to 1, or as a percentage in the range 0% to 100%. Learning Outcomes As a result of studying this topic, students will be able to • list the two possible outcomes when tossing a coin and calculate the probability of getting a head or a tail • list all the possible outcomes when tossing 2 coins • relate the number of outcomes to the fundamental principle of counting • determine the probability of an event using the results of an experiment and use this to predict the result of a repetition of the experiment, for equally likely outcomes • use the term ‘independent events’ © Project Maths Development Team 2009 www.projectmaths.ie 1 Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses Relationship to Junior Certificate Syllabus Sub-topics Ordinary Level Higher Level 1.5 Counting List all possible outcomes of an experiment. Apply the fundamental principle of counting. 1.6 Concepts of Estimate probabilities from probability experimental data. Recognise that, if an experiment is repeated, there will be different outcomes and that increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability. 1.7 Outcomes of simple random processes Apply the principle that, in the case of equally likely outcomes, the probability is given by the number of outcomes of interest divided by the total number of outcomes. Use binary/counting methods to solve problems involving successive events where only two possible outcomes apply to each event. Relationship to Leaving Certificate Syllabus Sub-topics Foundation Level 1.1 Counting List outcomes of an experiment. Apply the fundamental principle of counting. 1.2 Concepts of probability Ordinary Level Estimate probability from experimental data; appreciate that, if an experiment is repeated, there will be different outcomes and that increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability. Associate the probability of an event with its long run frequency. Calculate expected value. Resources Required Coins for students. © Project Maths Development Team 2009 www.projectmaths.ie 2 • ½ © Project Maths Development Team 2009 »» Fill in on Student Activity 1B. www.projectmaths.ie • 15 heads, 15 tails »» If you were to toss a coin 30 times predict and write down how many heads you would expect to get and how many tails. »» Fill in on Student Activity 1A. • ½ »» Given that there are 2 possible outcomes, heads and tails, what is the probability of getting a head when you toss a coin? Probability of a tail? »» Are the outcomes equally likely and why? • Yes because of the symmetry of the coin. • 2 – a head and a tail »» Toss a coin. How many outcomes are there and what are they? »» Fill in the Table on Student Activity 1. Student Activities: Possible and Expected Responses Student Learning Tasks: Teacher Input • student answer/response »» Can students work out the expected value? »» Can all students fill out their tables correctly? Checking Understanding KEY: » next step »» Circulate checking written predictions and then ask a student for an answer. »» Circulate to see if students are filling in the table correctly and ask a student for the answer. »» Emphasise that students must think about this before calculating probabilities. »» Distribute Student Activity 1. »» Distribute some coins to a few students first. Teacher’s Support and Actions Lesson Interaction Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses 3 »» Results should be close to predicted values. Student Activities: Possible and Expected Responses »» Are students keeping tallies correctly? Checking Understanding © Project Maths Development Team 2009 www.projectmaths.ie KEY: » next step • student answer/response »» Do students understand that the events are independent of each other? • No because the outcomes are independent – the outcome of one trial does not influence the outcome of any other trial. »» If I get four heads in a row does that increase the chances of getting a tail next time? »» Can you think of any other real life situations which have only 2 possible outcomes? »» Do students see the connection between relative frequency and probability? • Because of the larger number of trials the relative frequency is approx. equal to probability. »» Enter results from the whole class on the board. »» Were most students »» Circulate and look at tables able to make correct of results, asking different predictions? groups how many heads and tails they got. »» Circulate and remind students about the time limit, checking progress. »» Distribute coins to the rest of the class. Teacher’s Support and Actions »» Why are the results now closer to the predicted values? »» Check against your prediction. Complete in Student Activity 1F. »» Fill results into your own master »» Results should show closer agreement with predicted table Student Activity 1E and values. complete the table. »» Compare your result with your prediction and fill in Student Activity 1 D. »» Now, working in pairs, toss a coin 30 times and fill in the table on Student Activity 1C. You have a time limit of ________. Student Learning Tasks: Teacher Input Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses 4 • HH,TT,HT,TH • Yes, as the coins are symmetrical »» Given 2 coins make a list of all the possible outcomes you could get using the table in Student Activity 2A. »» Are all outcomes equally likely? © Project Maths Development Team 2009 • A head and a tail (HT or TH) – 14 times • TT- 7 times www.projectmaths.ie • Predict and write down the outcomes you might get if you were to toss 2 coins simultaneously 28 times. (Why didn’t I pick 30?) • HH – 7 times • Probability of head and tail = 2/4 =1/2 »» the probability of getting a head and a tail? »» Fill in on Student Activity 2B. • Probability of 2 tails = ¼ »» the probability of getting 2 tails? »» Using the information from the table: »» what is the probability • Probability of 2 heads =¼ of getting 2 heads? Student Activities: Possible and Expected Responses Student Learning Tasks: Teacher Input »» Circulate and check predictions asking for justifications. KEY: » next step • student answer/response »» Can students calculate the theoretical probability given equally likely outcomes? »» Have they got 4 possible outcomes? »» Circulate and check the list of outcomes, questioning where necessary. • Emphasise equally likely outcomes »» Do students see HT as a different outcome to TH? Checking Understanding »» Distribute Student Activity 2. Teacher’s Support and Actions Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses 5 »» Students should get approx twice as many H and T combinations as HH or TT. »» Working in pairs, toss 2 coins simultaneously 28 times and record your results in table (Student Activity 2C). www.projectmaths.ie • Coin 1 has 2 possible outcomes and coin 2 has 2 possible outcomes so total number of possible outcomes is 2x2=4. »» How does this fit in with what you learned in the fundamental principle of counting? © Project Maths Development Team 2009 • Since one head and one tail can occur as HT or TH, the number of outcomes for HH and TT should be half that for a head and a tail. »» The table only gives one option for heads and tails combination, while the original table showed HT and TH. Will this make a difference to the results? Why? • student answer/response »» Can students relate back to the fundamental principle of counting? »» Can students see that as the number of trials increases the relative frequency approaches the probability? »» Have students been able to make correct predictions and justify them? »» Can students see that there are 2 possible ways of getting a head and a tail? Checking Understanding KEY: » next step »» Enter results from the whole class on the board. »» Results should now be closer to predictions. »» Fill in results on master table Student Activity 2D from the board. »» Are these results in agreement with your predictions? »» Ask a number of groups to call out their results while walking around check others. »» Results should be close to predictions. Teacher’s Support and Actions »» Do your results agree with your predictions? »» Your time limit is________. Student Activities: Possible and Expected Responses Student Learning Tasks: Teacher Input Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses 6 • HH—250 »» If you tossed 2 coins simultaneously 1000 times how many of each of the possible outcomes would you expect? © Project Maths Development Team 2009 3. Calculate expected value for a large number of trials. »» Write down any questions you may have. www.projectmaths.ie 4. Note that the outcome of any one trial does not affect the outcome of any other trial – independent events. 2. How to use the list of all possible outcomes to judge fairness. 1. How to list all possible outcomes for tossing 1 coin and tossing 2 coins »» Write down anything you found difficult. Reflection »» Write down 3 things you learned about probability today. »» Is a game ‘fair ‘or ‘unfair’ if • Unfair! B has twice the A wins if he gets two heads probability of winning. and B wins if the outcome is one head and one tail. • Make it fair by allowing A to win for HH or TT. »» How would you make the game ‘fair’? • A head and a tail – 500 • TT—250 Student Activities: Possible and Expected Responses Student Learning Tasks: Teacher Input • student answer/response »» Are they using the terminology with understanding and communicating with each other using these terms? »» Have all students learned and understood these items? »» Do students recognise the need for a numeric representation of the phrase “probably won’t”? »» Are students able to calculate the expected value given the probability? Checking Understanding KEY: » next step »» Circulate and take note particularly of any questions students have and help them to answer them. Teacher’s Support and Actions Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses 7 Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses Student Activity 1 Student Activity 1A Tossing a coin Possible outcome Number of times it can appear Probability of getting a head________________ Probability of getting a tail________________ Student Activity 1B Tossing a coin 30 times I predict that I will get _________________ heads and _________________ tails. Student Activity 1C Results of the experiment Outcome Tally Frequency Relative frequency Student Activity 1D Do the results agree with my predictions? Student Activity 1E Master table of class results Outcome Heads Tails Counts from each group Frequency Relative frequency Student Activity 1F Do the results agree with my predictions? © Project Maths Development Team 2009 www.projectmaths.ie 8 Teaching & Learning Plan 4: Outcomes of Coin Tosses Student Activity 2 Student Activity 2C Tossing 2 coins simultaneously: List all the possible outcomes in the table. Coin 1 Coin 2 To help you visualise what’s happening list the possible outcomes on the diagrams below. H Coin 1 Coin 2 Student Activity 2C Using the information from the table, What is the probability of getting 2 heads?________________________________ What is the probability of getting 2 tails?________________________________ What is the probability of getting one head and one tail?________________________________? Student Activity 2C Table for experiment Outcome HH HT or TH TT Tally Frequency Student Activity 2C Master table for experiment Outcome HH HT or TH TT Frequency (from each group) © Project Maths Development Team 2009 www.projectmaths.ie Total Relative frequency 9

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