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 December 2007
Short‐Term Energy Outlook December 11, 2007 Release
Highlights ƒ Global oil markets will likely remain tight through the forecast period. EIA projects that world oil demand will grow much faster than oil supply outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), leaving OPEC and inventories to offset the resultant upward pressure on prices. However, at last week’s meeting in Abu Dhabi, OPEC decided to maintain its existing production quotas, noting that, in its view, the global oil market continued to be well supplied. Additional factors contributing to expectations that prices will remain high and volatile through 2008 include ongoing geopolitical risks, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) inventory tightness, and worldwide refining bottlenecks. ƒ
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) monthly crude oil prices averaged more than $85 per barrel in October and almost $95 per barrel in November, up $27 and $36 per barrel, respectively, from a year earlier. The daily closing spot price for WTI peaked at $99.16 per barrel on November 20 but started falling near the end of the month in anticipation of additional OPEC production, and is expected to continue to decline slightly through 2008. Monthly average prices for WTI are expected to exceed $80 per barrel over the next year. ƒ
The $80‐plus per barrel projected crude oil prices are likely to result in historically high prices for the major petroleum products. Residential heating oil prices are projected to average $3.23 per gallon this heating season, a 30‐
percent increase over the previous heating season. Both motor gasoline and diesel prices are projected to average well over $3 per gallon in 2008, with gasoline prices peaking at over $3.40 per gallon next spring. ƒ
Working natural gas in storage was 3.44 trillion cubic feet (tcf) as of November 30. This high level of storage going into the heart of the winter, combined with limited remaining fuel switching capability, has insulated the natural gas market from the impact of the recent price increases in petroleum markets to some extent. Consequently, while petroleum product prices are expected to Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
1
increase and remain historically high, only moderate gains are expected for natural gas prices through 2008. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average about $7.21 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2007 and $7.78 per mcf in 2008. Average household natural gas expenditures this winter are expected to show an increase of about 7 percent compared with last winter. Global Petroleum Markets Expectations that tight market conditions will persist into 2008 are keeping oil prices high. Despite the OPEC decision last week to hold production quotas steady and downward revisions to projected consumption growth in 2008, the oil balance outlook remains characterized by rising consumption, modest growth in non‐OPEC supply, fairly low surplus capacity, and continuing risks of supply disruptions in a number of major producing nations. Although the balance assumes a mild slowdown in world economic growth, the major downside risk remains the possibility of a sharper‐than‐
expected economic slowdown brought on by the fallout from the unsettled financial markets, which would dampen oil demand and ease oil price pressures. Consumption. China, non‐OECD Asia, and the Middle East countries are expected to remain the main drivers of higher world oil consumption through 2008. World oil consumption in the fourth quarter of 2007 is expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) above fourth quarter 2006 levels and total oil consumption in 2008 is projected to rise by 1.4 million bbl/d over 2007. Both projections are slightly lower than last month’s assessment. Indeed, higher prices appear to have dampened oil consumption in a few countries, including the United States, in recent months. (Table 3a indicates U.S. consumption in third quarter 2007 was 210,000 bbl/d lower than third quarter 2006 levels, compared with a year‐over‐year rise of 170,000 bbl/d during the first half of 2007.) In 2008, China alone is expected to account for over 400,000 bbl/d, or one‐third, of world oil consumption growth. Downward revisions in consumption growth are certainly possible, particularly if the slowdown in world economic growth is greater than expected (World Oil Consumption). Non‐OPEC Supply. Non‐OPEC production is expected to rise by 0.5 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared with fourth quarter 2006 levels (Non‐OPEC Oil Production Growth). For 2008, non‐OPEC supply is projected to grow by 0.9 million bbl/d over 2007. Gains in Brazil, the United States, Russia, and Canada will more than offset lower production in a number of countries, including Mexico, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Egypt. Russia and the other countries of the former Soviet Union combined are projected to account for nearly half of the gain in non‐OPEC supplies in 2008. Non‐OPEC supply is expected to increase by less than global oil consumption in 2008, putting pressure on OPEC and inventories to bridge this gap. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
2
Projected growth of production capacity is very sensitive to the progress of several large‐scale projects, including the already‐delayed Sakhalin II project in Russia, the Marlim field in Brazil, and the ACG project in Azerbaijan. Recent history has shown that non‐OPEC capacity growth projections often fall short of expectations. OPEC Supply. OPEC members decided to maintain existing production targets at last week’s meeting in Abu Dhabi. The combination of recent price weakness, downward revisions in demand projections, and higher supplies already expected from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, and Abu Dhabi (after recent maintenance), led OPEC to dismiss the need for additional supplies. EIA projects that OPEC crude production in the first quarter of 2008 will average about 31.6 million bbl/d, an increase of 400,000 bbl/d from fourth quarter 2007 levels. For the full year of 2008, EIA’s balance assumes that OPEC crude oil production will average 31.7 million bbl/d. In addition, OPEC production of non‐crude liquids is expected to increase by 300,000 bbl/d in 2008. OPEC countries’ plans to add substantial crude oil production capacity in 2008, with growth totaling roughly 1.3 million bbl/d by year’s‐end, should help meet growing oil demand. Saudi Arabia and Angola will account for most of the growth in capacity. Despite higher capacity, our petroleum balance indicates that OPEC surplus production capacity, held mostly in Saudi Arabia, will remain fairly low, averaging about 2 to 3 million bbl/d (OPEC Surplus Oil Production Capacity). Inventories. Total OECD commercial inventories continue to fall. Preliminary and partial data indicate commercial OECD inventories fell by 16 million barrels in October, leaving inventories slightly below the 5‐year average, at an estimated 2.6 billion barrels. Last year at the same time, inventories were 125 million barrels above the 5‐year average. Preliminary data for the U.S. indicate that inventories declined by more than the past 5‐year average during November. EIA’s oil balance suggests that OECD commercial stocks will be just below their 5‐year average at year’s‐end. Even with the additional OPEC production expected next year, OECD commercial inventories (measured on a days‐supply basis) would remain in the low end of the 5‐
year range in 2008 (Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks). U.S. Petroleum Markets Consumption. Total domestic petroleum consumption is projected to average 20.8 million bbl/d in 2007, up 0.4 percent from the 2006 average (U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth). A further 1.1‐percent increase to an average of 21.0 million bbl/d is projected for 2008. Motor gasoline consumption is projected to increase by 0.6 percent in 2007 and 1.0 percent in 2008. Reflecting moderate economic growth and Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
3
assumptions of normal weather during the upcoming winter season, total distillate consumption is projected to increase by 1.8 percent in 2007 and 1.4 percent in 2008. Production. In 2007, domestic crude oil production is projected to average 5.1 million bbl/d, 0.2 percent higher than 2006 production levels (U.S. Crude Oil Production). Domestic production in 2008 is projected to rise by 2.3 percent to 5.2 million bbl/d. Contributing to output growth are the Atlantis deepwater platform, which began production in October, and the Thunderhorse platform, expected to come on stream late in 2008. Prices. The refiner acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil is projected to increase from an average of $60.23 per barrel in 2006 to $67.89 per barrel in 2007. Although RAC prices are expected to decline slowly from their November peak, they are expected to average almost $80 per barrel in 2008 (Crude Oil Prices). WTI prices are projected to increase from an average of $66.02 per barrel in 2006 to $72.05 per barrel in 2007 and to nearly $85 per barrel in 2008. Slower U.S. economic growth of 2.1 percent is projected for 2007 and 1.8 percent for 2008, compared with 2.9 percent in 2006, which may be a mitigating factor for even higher crude oil prices. Gasoline prices, which hit a recent weekly peak of $3.11 per gallon in mid‐November, fell by about 10 cents per gallon over the last half of the month, corresponding to the drop in crude oil prices. Nevertheless, by the middle of next spring they are projected to rebound to over $3.40 per gallon as the driving season begins. In 2008, heating oil prices are projected to average $3.11 per gallon while diesel fuel prices are expected to average $3.21 per gallon. Inventories. Commercial crude oil inventories have generally been declining since May, a trend that is expected to continue through the forecast (U.S. Crude Oil Stocks). As of November 30, total motor gasoline inventories were an estimated 201 million barrels, down 3.4 million barrels from 2006 and 5.5 million barrels below the previous 5‐year average. Distillate stocks were an estimated 132 million barrels on November 30, down 8 million barrels from 2006 but about equal to the previous 5‐year average. Natural Gas Markets Consumption. Total natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 5.0 percent in 2007 (Total U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Growth), largely driven by increases in the residential, commercial, and electric power sectors that occurred earlier this year. The projected return to near‐normal weather in 2008 is expected to increase total consumption by 1.1 percent. Even though consumption of natural gas in the industrial sector is projected to decline by 0.7 percent in 2007, the weaker U.S. dollar and global demand for natural‐gas‐intensive goods produced domestically are Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
4
expected to contribute to a 0.8‐percent increase in industrial sector consumption in 2008. Production and Imports. Total U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to rise by 2.1 percent in 2007 and by 1.6 percent in 2008. In 2007, a portion of the 2.8‐
percent rise in marketed natural gas production in the Lower‐48 onshore region is being offset by a 1.7‐percent decline in Gulf of Mexico production. However, new deepwater supply infrastructure in the Gulf and ongoing efforts to develop unconventional reserves are expected to increase Gulf of Mexico and Lower‐48 onshore production by 5.1 and 1.0 percent, respectively, in 2008. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to reach about 790 billion cubic feet (bcf) in 2007, a 35‐percent increase over 2006, and about 940 bcf in 2008, a 19‐
percent increase over 2007. In recent months, LNG imports have slowed due to complications with key production and liquefaction facilities as well as increases in global demand. The expansion of global liquefaction capacity is expected to boost LNG shipments to the United States in 2008, but the risk of project delays and production shortfalls, as well as negative price differentials between the U.S. market and other LNG‐consuming countries, could temper the number of spot cargoes directed to U.S. ports next year. Inventories. On November 30, 2007, working natural gas in storage was 3,440 bcf (U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage). Current inventories are now 273 bcf above the 5‐year average (2002‐2006) and 32 bcf above the level during the corresponding week last year. Prices. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $7.31 per mcf in November, $0.37 per mcf more than the average October spot price. Despite high storage levels and the relatively moderate winter weather thus far, the onset of seasonal natural gas demand for space heating has caused a steady increase in the monthly average spot price since September. Spot prices at the Henry Hub are projected to reach a winter peak of $8.22 per mcf in January 2008. On an annual basis, the Henry Hub spot price is expected to average about $7.21 per mcf in 2007 and $7.78 per mcf in 2008 (Natural Gas Prices). Electricity Markets Consumption. Total electricity consumption in 2007 is projected to increase by 1.9 percent over last year (U.S. Total Electricity Consumption). Cooling degree‐days in 2008 are assumed to be about 12 percent lower than in 2007. The assumed return to near‐normal temperatures should keep residential electricity sales growth relatively Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
5
flat at a rate of 0.2 percent next year. Slow macroeconomic growth in 2008 will also limit growth in electricity sales to the commercial and industrial sectors. Prices. U.S. residential electricity prices are expected to average 10.6 cents per kilowatthour in 2007 (U.S. Residential Electricity Prices), 2.1 percent above prices in 2006. Residential prices are expected to grow at a somewhat slower rate of 1.7 percent in 2008. Most States that had planned to let price caps expire within the next year have either delayed those plans or changed the expiration schedule so that increases occur over a longer time frame. Coal Markets Consumption. Electric‐power‐sector coal consumption, which accounts for more than 90 percent of total U.S. coal consumption, is expected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2007. Slow growth in electricity consumption, combined with projected increases in natural‐
gas‐fired and hydroelectric generation, will lead to a 0.5‐percent decline in electric‐
power‐sector coal consumption in 2008 (U.S. Coal Consumption Growth). Production. U.S. coal production (U.S. Coal Production), which increased by 2.8 percent in 2006, is expected to fall by 1.0 percent in 2007. Interior region coal production is expected to grow slightly (by 0.5 percent) in 2007. The projected decline in coal consumption, coupled with continued draws on inventories, will lead to a 1.7‐
percent decline in total coal production in 2008, with declines occurring in all coal producing regions. Inventories. Withdrawals from primary (producer/distributor) and secondary (consuming sectors) inventories are expected to supply approximately 28 percent of the projected coal consumption increase in 2007. Total coal stocks are expected to fall by 3.6 percent in 2007 to 180 million short tons. Primary inventories are projected to fall by an additional 11.2 percent in 2008, and secondary inventories are projected to be 2.2 percent lower than in 2007. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook-- December 2007
6
Table WF01. Selected U.S. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- December 2007
Winter of
Forecast
Fuel / Region
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06 Avg.01-06 06-07
07-08
% Change
Natural Gas
Northeast
Consumption (mcf**)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (mcf)
Price ($/mcf)
Expenditures ($)
Households (thousands)
Heating Oil
Northeast
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (gallons)
Price ($/gallon)
Expenditures ($)
Households (thousands)
67.7
9.41
637
84.3
9.99
842
79.9
11.77
941
79.7
12.65
1,008
73.8
16.40
1,211
77.1
12.03
928
74.7
14.69
1,097
77.0
15.61
1,202
3.2
6.3
9.6
78.2
6.26
490
92.3
7.61
702
85.7
8.77
751
85.3
10.04
857
82.3
13.45
1,107
84.8
9.22
781
84.9
11.06
939
85.0
11.75
999
0.2
6.2
6.4
52.7
8.17
431
60.4
9.03
545
55.4
10.67
591
53.8
12.17
655
53.5
16.46
880
55.2
11.25
620
54.6
13.59
742
53.5
14.57
780
-1.9
7.2
5.2
47.8
7.08
338
45.1
7.55
340
46.1
8.84
408
47.1
10.18
479
47.0
12.96
609
46.6
9.33
435
47.6
11.20
533
47.5
11.73
557
-0.1
4.7
4.7
62.5
7.45
465
59,264
71.2
8.42
600
59,096
67.2
9.81
659
59,708
66.8
11.04
737
60,364
64.5
14.58
941
61,036
66.4
10.24
680
59,893
65.8
12.35
813
61,721
65.9
13.12
865
62,375
0.2
6.3
6.5
1.1
544.8
1.18
641
676.1
1.42
963
641.6
1.46
935
641.4
1.93
1,237
593.0
2.45
1,453
619.4
1.69
1,046
599.2
2.50
1,499
619.2
3.25
2,012
3.3
29.9
34.2
449.4
1.03
463
533.8
1.35
720
492.9
1.34
661
486.9
1.84
895
469.4
2.38
1,116
486.5
1.59
771
487.7
2.40
1,168
490.8
3.19
1,563
0.6
33.0
33.8
342.9
1.13
387
423.7
1.41
597
398.2
1.45
578
382.9
1.95
746
377.8
2.45
925
385.1
1.68
646
368.1
2.37
872
373.6
3.11
1,162
1.5
31.2
33.2
338.9
1.09
369
304.6
1.39
422
318.2
1.46
463
327.7
1.98
650
327.3
2.50
817
323.3
1.68
544
327.2
2.57
842
330.5
3.20
1,057
1.0
24.3
25.6
542.6
1.16
627
8,071
658.7
1.41
932
7,883
624.7
1.44
903
7,867
622.4
1.92
1,198
7,868
584.2
2.45
1,430
7,866
606.5
1.68
1,018
7,911
590.6
2.48
1,466
7,857
606.0
3.23
1,955
7,857
2.6
30.0
33.4
0.0
Table WF01. Selected U.S. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- December 2007
Winter of
Forecast
Fuel / Region
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06 Avg.01-06 06-07
07-08
% Change
Propane
Northeast
Consumption (gallons)
741.2
914.5
870.1
869.3
807.8
840.6
816.1
841.3
3.1
Price ($/gallon)
1.40
1.55
1.65
1.87
2.20
1.74
2.29
2.74
19.4
Expenditures ($)
1,040
1,414
1,436
1,629
1,774
1,459
1,870
2,301
23.1
Midwest
Consumption (gallons)
733.1
858.1
799.2
790.3
765.2
789.2
791.6
796.2
0.6
Price ($/gallon)
1.00
1.07
1.20
1.42
1.67
1.27
1.74
2.12
21.8
Expenditures ($)
734
919
955
1,119
1,275
1,000
1,380
1,690
22.5
South
Consumption (gallons)
494.7
574.7
532.8
513.8
517.5
526.7
518.5
513.4
-1.0
Price ($/gallon)
1.24
1.45
1.57
1.79
2.12
1.63
2.16
2.69
24.5
Expenditures ($)
613
835
838
918
1,096
860
1,121
1,382
23.3
West
Consumption (gallons)
618.5
582.9
590.0
599.3
596.3
597.4
605.2
600.2
-0.8
Price ($/gallon)
1.25
1.38
1.54
1.78
2.09
1.61
2.18
2.54
16.3
Expenditures ($)
776
806
906
1,068
1,245
960
1,322
1,524
15.3
U.S. Average
Consumption (gallons)
634.5
719.9
679.5
670.4
657.0
672.2
669.0
670.0
0.1
Price ($/gallon)
1.16
1.29
1.42
1.64
1.95
1.49
2.02
2.43
20.5
Expenditures ($)
736
926
962
1,102
1,281
1,002
1,349
1,629
20.7
Households (thousands)
4,979
4,906
4,929
4,951
4,985
4,950
5,020
5,055
0.7
Electricity
Northeast
Consumption (kwh***)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
Midwest
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
South
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
West
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
U.S. Average
Consumption (kwh)
Price ($/kwh)
Expenditures ($)
Households (thousands)
8,956
0.111
997
10,529
0.109
1,148
10,128
0.114
1,153
10,109
0.117
1,183
9,564
0.133
1,269
9,857
0.117
1,150
9,643
0.139
1,339
9,860
0.142
1,399
2.3
2.2
4.5
10,224
0.075
762
11,397
0.074
841
10,850
0.075
818
10,792
0.077
830
10,552
0.081
850
10,763
0.076
820
10,784
0.085
917
10,815
0.087
945
0.3
2.7
3.0
8,171
0.075
615
8,817
0.074
650
8,446
0.078
655
8,304
0.082
677
8,297
0.092
765
8,407
0.080
673
8,341
0.096
801
8,277
0.097
802
-0.8
0.9
0.1
7,284
0.090
659
6,969
0.091
635
7,095
0.091
642
7,189
0.092
661
7,181
0.097
695
7,143
0.092
659
7,195
0.102
735
7,212
0.106
762
0.2
3.5
3.8
7,980
0.083
663
30,926
8,531
0.082
697
30,992
8,258
0.085
699
31,335
8,190
0.088
717
31,700
8,103
0.096
782
32,035
8,212
0.087
712
31,398
8,158
0.101
823
32,352
8,145
0.103
838
32,675
-0.2
2.0
1.9
1.0
104,152 106,950 107,962
730
889
972
0.9
9.3
All households (thousands) 103,240 102,877 103,839 104,883 105,922
Average Expenditures ($)
550
670
704
783
945
Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31.
* Prices include taxes
** thousand cubic feet
*** kilowatthour
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Chart Gallery for December 2007
Crude Oil Prices
100
Forecast
80
Dollars
per
barrel
60
40
20
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Average Refiner Acquisition Cost (RAC)
0
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices
400
360
320
Forecast
Retail Regular Gasoline
Wholesale Gasoline
Refiner Acquistion Cost
280
Cents
per
gallon
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices
400
360
Forecast
Retail Diesel
Retail Heating Oil
Refiner Acquisition Cost
320
280
Cents
per
gallon
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Natural Gas Prices
20
Forecast
18
16
14
Dollars 12
per
10
thousand
cubic feet 8
6
4
Residential Price
Henry Hub Spot Price
Composite Wellhead Price
2
0
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
World Oil Consumption
95
4.5
Forecast
90
Million
barrels 85
per day 80
Total Consumption
4.0
3.5
3.0
75
2.5
Annual Growth
70
2.0
65
1.5
60
55
1.0 Million
barrels
0.5 per day
50
0.0
45
-0.5
2000
2001
2002
China
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
2003
2004
United States
2005
2006
2007
Other Countries
2008
World Oil Consumption Growth
(Change from Previous Year)
1.2
1.0
Forecast
0.8
0.6
Million
barrels
per day
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
2006
OECD*
2007
Non-OECD Asia
2008
FSU** and Eastern Europe
Other
* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
** Former Soviet Union
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
World Oil Production Growth
(Change from Previous Year)
2.0
Forecast
1.5
1.0
Million
barrels 0.5
per day
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2006
2007
OPEC Countries
North America
North Sea
2008
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth
(Change from Previous Year)
0.8
0.6
2008
2007
2006
0.4
Million 0.2
barrels
per day 0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Mexico
Norway
Oman
United Kingdom
Other North Sea
Syria
Egypt
Ecuador
Colombia
Gabon
Malaysia
Australia
India
Vietnam
China
Sudan
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Kazakhstan
United States
Russia
Canada
Brazil
Azerbaijan
-0.6
World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production
(Change from Previous Year)
5
35
Forecast
4
30
25
3
20
2
15
Million
barrels 1
per day
0
10
5
Dollars
per
barrel
0
-1
-5
World Oil Consumption (left axis)
Non-OPEC Production* (left axis)
WTI Crude Oil Price (right axis)
-2
-10
-3
-15
2004-Q1
2005-Q1
2006-Q1
2007-Q1
2008-Q1
* Includes OPEC non-crude production
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
6
Forecast
5
4
Million
barrels 3
per day
2
1
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Note: Shaded area represents 1996-2006 average (2.8 million barrels per day)
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
70
Forecast
65
60
Days of
55
supply
50
45
400
Jan 2002
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
NOTE: Colored band represents the 5-year minimum/maximum range for each month.
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Jan 2008
U.S. Crude Oil Production
6
35%
Forecast
5
Million
barrels
per day
30%
4
25%
Lower 48 Production
20%
3
2
15%
Alaska Production
1
10%
3.9%
0
Annual Growth
5%
Change
from
Prior
-5% Year
1.3%
0%
-1
-1.4%
-0.2%
-2
-1.0% -0.3% -1.0% -1.1%
-3.1%
-0.8%
-4.6% -4.4%
-5.9%
-3
-10%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Crude Oil Stocks
400
Forecast
380
360
340
320
Million
300
barrels
280
260
240
220
200
0
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
NOTE: Colored band represents "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth
(Change from Previous Year)
500
400
300
Forecast
-0.6%
0.4%
1.1%
200
Thousand 100
barrels
0
per day
-100
-200
-300
-400
2006
Total
Motor Gasoline
2007
Jet Fuel
2008
Distillate Fuel
Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Other
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories
260
Forecast
Total Motor Gasoline Inventory
240
220
200
180
Million
160
barrels
140
Total Distillate Fuel Inventory
120
100
80
600
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
NOTE: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption
68
Forecast
Consumption
66
16%
Billion
64
cubic feet
per day 62
60
14%
12%
10%
58
8%
Annual Growth
56
6%
5.0%
3.9%
54
52
18%
1.5%
0.8%
3.5%
4%
0.7%
1.1%
0.2%
50
-0.4%
48
-2.1%
46
-3.2%
-2.5%
-4%
-4.4%
44
-6%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage
(Percent Difference from Previous 5-Year Average)
40%
Forecast
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
Change
from
0% Prior
Year
-2%
2%
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
U.S. Coal Consumption Growth
(Percent Change from Previous Year)
5%
4%
Forecast
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2006
2007
Total Demand
Retail and General Industry
2008
Electric Power Sector
Coke Plants
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Annual Coal Production
1400
Forecast
1200
1000
Million
short
tons
800
600
400
200
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total U.S.
Appalachian Region
Western Region
Interior Region
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Total Electricity Consumption
13
Forecast
Billion 12
kilowatt 11
hours
10
per day
9
Consumption
8%
7%
6%
Annual Growth
7
5%
3.7%
6
4
10%
9%
8
5
11%
4%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
1.8%
3%
2.1%
1.7%
1.9%
0.8%
3
1.2%
0.2%
0.3%
2
1
-0.7%
0
2% Change
from
1%
Prior
0% Year
-1%
-2%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Residential Electricity Price
13
22%
Forecast
12
Cents
11
per
kilowatt 10
9
hour
20%
18%
Monthly Average Electricity Price
16%
14%
8
12%
10.1%
7
10%
Annual Growth
6
8%
5.6%
5
6% Change
4% from
2% prior
0% year
4.2%
3.2%
4
3
2.6%
2.1% 1.7%
0.9%
0.9%
2
1
-0.5%
-2.0%
0
1996
1997
-1.2%
1998
-2%
-1.6%
-4%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures As Percent
of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days
(Population-weighted)
450
400
350
300
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Normal
250
200
150
100
50
0
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
AUG
SEP
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days
(Population-weighted)
1200
1000
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Normal
800
600
400
200
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions
AK
Pacific
WEST
MIDWEST
NORTHEAST
WA
ND
MT
OR
SD
Pacific
WY
ID
NV
Mountain
CO
CA
VT
WI
West
North
Central
NE
ME
MN
MI
North
Middle
Atlantic
Central OH
MO
KS
PA
DE
WV
NM
Pacific
HI
VA
KY
East TN
OK
TX
West
South
Central
AR
South
Central
LA
MS
MD
NC
South
Atlantic
SC
GA
LEGEND
REGION
Division
AL
State
FL
SOUTH
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2007
MA
RI
CT
NJ
IN
IL
UT
AZ
NH
NY England
East
IA
New
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................
5.07
5.15
5.07
5.13
5.17
5.20
5.00
5.07
5.26
5.22
5.10
5.33
5.10
5.11
5.23
Dry Natural Gas Production
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
50.35
50.33
51.09
51.29
51.01
51.58
52.26
52.63
52.83
52.58
52.74
52.73
50.77
51.88
52.72
Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................
289
292
290
291
285
285
288
293
288
268
287
290
1,163
1,151
1,132
Petroleum
(million barrels per day) ..............................
20.54
20.55
20.91
20.75
20.77
20.65
20.70
20.93
20.99
20.83
21.09
21.08
20.69
20.76
21.00
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
71.47
52.34
54.11
60.02
78.82
53.57
56.59
61.00
78.93
54.27
56.52
62.74
59.44
62.43
63.09
Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................
273
261
301
278
278
268
306
285
283
262
300
286
1,113
1,137
1,132
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................
10.13
10.03
11.81
9.84
10.45
10.12
11.91
10.14
10.46
10.16
11.98
10.17
10.46
10.66
10.69
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
1.73
1.88
1.64
1.67
1.83
1.85
1.68
1.58
1.74
1.84
1.75
1.68
6.92
6.94
7.01
Total Energy Consumption (d)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
25.79
23.90
25.45
25.18
26.83
24.36
25.77
25.57
27.25
24.57
25.93
25.92
100.31
102.52
103.68
Crude Oil (e)
(dollars per barrel) .......................................
56.23
64.54
65.15
54.56
53.95
62.44
71.29
83.32
82.24
82.34
79.02
76.00
60.23
67.89
79.89
Natural Gas Wellhead
(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................
7.49
6.19
5.96
6.02
6.37
6.89
5.90
6.40
6.89
6.40
6.68
7.36
6.41
6.39
6.83
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................
1.69
1.70
1.70
1.69
1.76
1.78
1.77
1.75
1.80
1.81
1.79
1.76
1.69
1.76
1.79
Real Gross Domestic Product
(billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................
11,239
3.3
11,307
3.2
11,337
2.4
11,396
2.6
11,413
1.5
11,520
1.9
11,631
2.6
11,669
2.4
11,682
2.4
11,719
1.7
11,787
1.3
11,869
1.7
11,319
2.9
11,558
2.1
11,764
1.8
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(Index, 2000=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
115.4
3.2
116.4
3.5
117.0
3.2
117.5
2.7
118.8
2.9
119.5
2.7
119.8
2.3
120.2
2.3
121.0
1.9
121.4
1.5
121.9
1.8
122.4
1.8
116.6
3.2
119.6
2.6
121.7
1.8
Real Disposable Personal Income
(billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................
8,344
3.1
8,349
2.6
8,385
3.3
8,511
3.2
8,624
3.4
8,636
3.4
8,729
4.1
8,760
2.9
8,822
2.3
8,903
3.1
8,964
2.7
9,038
3.2
8,397
3.1
8,687
3.5
8,932
2.8
112.3
4.9
113.9
5.5
115.2
6.1
114.6
3.6
114.9
2.3
116.1
2.0
117.3
1.8
117.2
2.2
117.3
2.1
117.6
1.3
118.1
0.7
118.8
1.4
114.0
5.0
116.4
2.1
118.0
1.4
2,018
36
423
398
94
863
1,461
72
2,196
43
508
377
71
886
1,493
113
2,189
40
532
349
97
777
1,614
79
3,996
1,369
4,268
1,419
4,432
1,245
Energy Consumption
Nominal Energy Prices
Macroeconomic
Manufacturing Production Index
(Index, 2002=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Table 2. U.S. Energy Nominal Prices
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ..............
Imported Average .................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ........................
Petroleum Products (cents per gallon)
63.27
54.72
56.23
70.41
63.62
64.54
70.42
63.78
65.15
59.98
53.39
54.56
58.08
53.13
53.95
64.98
62.29
62.44
75.46
70.35
71.29
89.69
82.02
83.32
87.00
80.98
82.24
87.33
81.34
82.34
84.00
78.01
79.02
81.00
75.02
76.00
66.02
59.02
60.23
72.05
66.98
67.89
84.83
78.87
79.89
176
184
175
225
217
199
216
217
195
168
186
173
176
184
170
238
212
196
222
224
208
239
258
249
242
257
247
273
259
244
253
248
232
222
239
227
197
201
183
219
220
206
248
251
238
186
125
96
212
129
103
214
126
107
186
109
95
181
111
95
209
129
111
220
144
119
259
177
144
259
178
143
258
171
142
249
162
138
240
158
136
200
122
100
218
140
117
251
167
140
234
239
250
245
196
285
289
284
257
200
284
288
292
256
197
226
231
256
246
198
236
241
255
250
204
302
306
281
261
212
285
290
290
268
205
297
301
328
322
240
302
306
329
323
245
336
341
329
313
241
318
323
318
294
225
286
291
310
298
233
258
262
270
248
198
281
285
288
272
216
311
315
321
311
238
Average Wellhead ..............................................
7.49
Henry Hub Spot ..................................................
7.93
End-Use Prices
Industrial Sector ................................................
9.46
Commercial Sector ...........................................
13.08
Residential Sector ............................................
14.08
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
6.19
6.74
5.96
6.27
6.02
6.83
6.37
7.41
6.89
7.76
5.90
6.35
6.40
7.34
6.89
8.03
6.40
7.40
6.68
7.40
7.36
8.27
6.41
6.93
6.39
7.21
6.83
7.78
7.51
11.40
13.96
7.14
11.06
15.84
7.26
11.06
12.52
8.02
11.36
12.30
8.11
11.64
14.18
6.76
11.23
16.48
8.10
11.52
13.11
8.77
12.29
13.16
7.74
11.45
13.73
7.58
11.80
16.32
8.96
12.40
13.80
7.88
11.97
13.75
7.76
11.44
13.14
8.29
12.11
13.67
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ............................................................
Diesel Fuel ........................................................
Heating Oil ........................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .............................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ...............................
Propane to Petrochemical Sector .....................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..............................
Gasoline All Grades (b) ....................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ....................................
Heating Oil ........................................................
Propane ............................................................
Natural Gas (dollars per thousand cubic feetf)
Coal ..................................................................
Natural Gas ......................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) .........................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...............................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
1.69
7.96
7.97
12.62
1.70
6.74
7.70
14.57
1.70
6.72
8.16
13.23
1.69
6.63
7.16
12.43
1.76
7.35
7.18
12.44
1.78
7.62
8.36
14.48
1.77
6.62
8.75
15.33
1.75
7.29
11.29
17.47
1.80
7.85
11.28
17.53
1.81
7.21
10.85
17.42
1.79
7.36
10.32
16.62
1.76
8.02
10.05
16.21
1.69
6.92
7.80
13.21
1.76
7.14
8.65
14.95
1.79
7.56
10.61
16.94
Industrial Sector ................................................
Commercial Sector ...........................................
Residential Sector ............................................
5.9
9.0
9.7
6.1
9.4
10.6
6.5
10.0
10.9
6.1
9.3
10.2
6.1
9.3
10.0
6.3
9.7
10.9
6.7
10.0
11.0
6.3
9.4
10.5
6.2
9.3
10.1
6.4
9.7
11.0
6.8
10.2
11.3
6.4
9.7
10.7
6.2
9.5
10.4
6.4
9.6
10.6
6.5
9.8
10.8
- = no data available
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http://Intelligencepress.com); WTI crude oil price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
2007
2008
Year
2007
2008
21.59
8.33
3.29
3.71
4.78
1.48
63.01
33.86
35.29
30.80
4.49
12.16
3.84
11.71
84.60
21.47
8.45
3.40
3.52
4.55
1.54
63.39
33.21
34.99
30.46
4.53
12.63
3.90
11.87
84.86
21.44
8.68
3.60
3.32
4.31
1.53
65.95
34.32
36.57
31.74
4.83
13.02
3.88
12.48
87.39
51.51
49.30
49.87
50.82
48.90
21.09
0.34
2.22
15.41
4.81
5.03
37.87
4.60
0.75
8.17
8.60
15.77
86.77
50.04
21.08
0.36
2.26
15.65
5.32
5.38
38.58
4.97
0.81
8.44
8.90
15.47
88.62
49.31
20.69
0.35
2.25
15.62
5.16
5.24
35.42
4.33
0.78
7.27
8.58
14.45
84.73
49.21
20.76
0.34
2.31
15.38
5.09
5.33
36.58
4.48
0.79
7.68
8.67
14.96
85.78
49.38
21.00
0.35
2.21
15.37
5.23
5.21
37.78
4.66
0.80
8.12
8.76
15.43
87.16
-0.68
-0.20
-0.28
-1.16
-0.13
-0.35
-0.48
-0.96
0.37
-0.08
-0.11
0.18
-0.06
-0.20
0.39
0.13
0.14
0.19
0.60
0.92
-0.06
-0.06
-0.10
-0.23
1,006
2,563
1,013
2,602
978
2,575
1,031
2,675
972
2,546
978
2,575
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Supply (million barrels per day) (a)
OECD (b) ..........................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (c) ..................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC-11 ........................................
OPEC-12 (d) ..................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union (e) ................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Production .....................
21.83
8.20
3.29
3.80
5.12
1.42
62.54
33.92
35.36
30.96
4.40
11.81
3.85
11.52
84.37
21.44
8.34
3.16
3.79
4.72
1.43
62.83
33.83
35.19
30.74
4.45
12.07
3.87
11.70
84.26
21.47
8.38
3.31
3.71
4.52
1.54
63.67
34.18
35.66
31.11
4.54
12.26
3.85
11.91
85.14
21.62
8.40
3.39
3.52
4.77
1.54
62.99
33.51
34.97
30.40
4.57
12.48
3.81
11.73
84.61
21.76
8.45
3.42
3.59
4.81
1.49
62.43
32.87
34.51
29.93
4.57
12.61
3.92
11.39
84.19
21.49
8.53
3.33
3.61
4.49
1.54
62.96
32.88
34.58
30.07
4.51
12.60
3.96
11.82
84.45
21.14
8.40
3.38
3.46
4.33
1.55
63.67
33.29
35.05
30.56
4.49
12.56
3.87
12.19
84.81
21.49
8.41
3.48
3.43
4.57
1.60
64.47
33.80
35.80
31.25
4.55
12.75
3.85
12.07
85.97
21.60
8.67
3.56
3.34
4.51
1.52
64.80
34.07
36.25
31.60
4.65
12.78
3.86
11.91
86.41
21.46
8.68
3.60
3.36
4.30
1.52
65.48
34.12
36.36
31.62
4.74
12.88
3.88
12.36
86.95
21.14
8.57
3.62
3.30
4.11
1.54
66.59
34.49
36.73
31.83
4.90
13.12
3.88
12.85
87.73
21.54
8.81
3.62
3.27
4.32
1.52
66.91
34.59
36.93
31.90
5.04
13.30
3.89
12.79
88.45
Non-OPEC Production (f) .................
49.01
49.07
49.49
49.64
49.69
49.87
49.75
50.17
50.15
50.59
51.00
Consumption (million barrels per day) (g)
OECD (b) ..........................................
50.41
U.S. (50 States) .............................
20.54
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.37
Canada ..........................................
2.26
Europe ............................................ 15.95
Japan .............................................
5.89
Other OECD ...................................
5.40
Non-OECD ........................................
34.96
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.37
Europe ............................................
0.83
China ..............................................
7.02
Other Asia ......................................
8.53
Other Non-OECD ...........................
14.20
Total World Consumption .................
85.37
48.12
20.55
0.36
2.20
15.22
4.72
5.08
35.19
4.07
0.77
7.30
8.62
14.43
83.31
48.94
20.91
0.34
2.28
15.60
4.75
5.06
35.34
4.21
0.72
7.24
8.45
14.72
84.28
49.77
20.75
0.34
2.26
15.72
5.29
5.42
36.17
4.66
0.78
7.53
8.73
14.47
85.94
49.57
20.77
0.30
2.34
15.28
5.39
5.49
36.07
4.51
0.85
7.43
8.62
14.67
85.64
48.08
20.65
0.32
2.28
14.96
4.61
5.26
36.27
4.22
0.78
7.62
8.71
14.94
84.35
48.84
20.70
0.36
2.35
15.55
4.73
5.16
36.61
4.41
0.73
7.69
8.53
15.25
85.45
50.33
20.93
0.36
2.28
15.72
5.62
5.42
37.35
4.80
0.79
7.97
8.82
14.97
87.68
50.31
20.99
0.36
2.23
15.42
5.95
5.37
37.13
4.64
0.86
7.83
8.73
15.06
87.44
48.25
20.83
0.35
2.15
15.00
4.84
5.08
37.53
4.43
0.80
8.05
8.81
15.44
85.79
Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)
U.S. (50 States) ................................
0.07
-0.41
Other OECD (b) ................................
-0.07
-0.33
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
1.00
-0.20
Total Stock Draw ............................
1.00
-0.95
-0.61
-0.54
0.29
-0.86
0.71
0.16
0.47
1.33
0.48
0.35
0.62
1.45
-0.57
-0.19
0.67
-0.10
0.11
0.07
0.47
0.64
0.54
0.52
0.65
1.71
0.18
0.38
0.48
1.04
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,005
OECD Commercial Inventory (b) .....
2,593
1,097
2,759
1,031
2,675
988
2,597
1,039
2,668
1,026
2,648
972
2,546
950
2,489
1,041
2,655
2006
- = no data available
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol.
(b) OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(c) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(d) OPEC-12: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. OPEC-11
does not include Angola.
(e) Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(f) Non-OPEC Supply does not include petroleum production from Angola and does not include OPEC non-Crude liquids production.
(g) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
2007
2008
Year
2007
2008
15.33
3.29
3.71
8.33
15.38
3.40
3.52
8.45
15.60
3.60
3.32
8.68
5.23
0.78
2.95
0.51
0.51
0.48
4.56
0.80
2.17
0.54
0.54
0.51
4.63
0.79
2.32
0.53
0.51
0.48
4.98
0.79
2.71
0.51
0.50
0.48
4.75
2.48
1.29
0.34
4.97
2.54
1.41
0.37
5.45
2.79
1.60
0.39
5.21
2.60
1.58
0.37
4.96
2.54
1.42
0.35
13.11
0.96
1.53
9.95
0.19
0.67
13.35
1.02
1.54
10.11
0.19
0.67
13.52
1.09
1.57
10.20
0.19
0.67
12.39
0.65
1.39
9.68
0.18
0.67
12.85
0.85
1.45
9.89
0.18
0.66
13.25
1.00
1.53
10.04
0.19
0.67
1.54
0.68
0.45
0.36
1.53
0.68
0.44
0.35
1.52
0.68
0.44
0.35
1.51
0.67
0.44
0.35
1.62
0.74
0.45
0.38
1.56
0.70
0.45
0.36
1.53
0.68
0.44
0.35
7.49
0.67
3.85
0.91
0.71
0.35
7.50
0.61
3.86
0.91
0.74
0.37
7.55
0.61
3.88
0.92
0.73
0.41
7.62
0.63
3.88
0.92
0.74
0.45
7.65
0.60
3.89
0.93
0.74
0.49
7.36
0.55
3.84
0.85
0.73
0.36
7.46
0.62
3.90
0.89
0.71
0.35
7.58
0.61
3.88
0.92
0.74
0.43
2.85
0.69
0.43
0.24
0.49
2.85
0.65
0.44
0.25
0.50
2.90
0.64
0.46
0.25
0.54
2.95
0.63
0.46
0.25
0.58
2.93
0.63
0.46
0.25
0.59
2.94
0.63
0.47
0.25
0.60
2.60
0.67
0.39
0.24
0.38
2.78
0.66
0.42
0.24
0.46
2.93
0.63
0.46
0.25
0.58
49.87
49.75
50.17
50.15
50.59
51.00
51.51
49.30
49.87
50.82
4.51
54.38
4.49
54.25
4.55
54.72
4.65
54.80
4.74
55.33
4.90
55.90
5.04
56.55
4.49
53.79
4.53
54.40
4.83
55.65
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
North America ...................................
Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................
15.29
3.29
3.80
8.20
15.29
3.16
3.79
8.34
15.41
3.31
3.71
8.38
15.31
3.39
3.52
8.40
15.47
3.42
3.59
8.45
15.47
3.33
3.61
8.53
15.25
3.38
3.46
8.40
15.32
3.48
3.43
8.41
15.57
3.56
3.34
8.67
15.64
3.60
3.36
8.68
15.49
3.62
3.30
8.57
15.70
3.62
3.27
8.81
Central and South America ............
Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Ecuador ...............................................
Other Central and S. America .............
4.28
0.79
1.90
0.54
0.55
0.51
4.57
0.81
2.15
0.55
0.54
0.52
4.83
0.81
2.40
0.55
0.54
0.53
4.54
0.79
2.21
0.54
0.52
0.48
4.24
0.80
1.94
0.53
0.50
0.47
4.64
0.80
2.32
0.53
0.51
0.48
4.90
0.79
2.58
0.53
0.51
0.49
4.75
0.79
2.42
0.53
0.53
0.48
4.48
0.79
2.21
0.52
0.49
0.48
4.87
0.79
2.61
0.50
0.49
0.48
5.34
0.79
3.06
0.51
0.50
0.48
Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom ...................................
Other North Sea ..................................
5.79
2.94
1.77
0.41
5.39
2.71
1.61
0.40
5.19
2.73
1.43
0.36
5.44
2.77
1.61
0.39
5.47
2.73
1.69
0.38
5.16
2.47
1.65
0.37
4.99
2.54
1.42
0.37
5.23
2.67
1.54
0.36
5.16
2.62
1.54
0.36
4.94
2.52
1.44
0.35
FSU and Eastern Europe .................
Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU/Eastern Europe .................
12.04
0.56
1.31
9.50
0.17
0.67
12.30
0.61
1.37
9.63
0.19
0.69
12.49
0.69
1.39
9.74
0.18
0.67
12.70
0.73
1.47
9.83
0.17
0.67
12.83
0.84
1.44
9.89
0.19
0.66
12.81
0.88
1.45
9.84
0.17
0.65
12.78
0.80
1.43
9.90
0.18
0.66
12.98
0.89
1.46
9.95
0.18
0.67
13.00
0.93
1.51
9.90
0.19
0.67
Middle East ........................................
Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................
1.67
0.77
0.46
0.39
1.62
0.74
0.45
0.37
1.60
0.73
0.45
0.36
1.61
0.73
0.44
0.38
1.60
0.72
0.45
0.38
1.57
0.71
0.46
0.35
1.55
0.69
0.45
0.35
1.55
0.69
0.45
0.36
Asia and Oceania ............................
Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................
7.34
0.49
3.85
0.85
0.75
0.37
7.29
0.50
3.87
0.86
0.68
0.35
7.39
0.61
3.85
0.83
0.72
0.36
7.43
0.61
3.81
0.88
0.76
0.36
7.43
0.57
3.92
0.89
0.71
0.36
7.48
0.61
3.96
0.87
0.70
0.35
7.43
0.63
3.87
0.89
0.70
0.34
Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................
2.60
0.68
0.39
0.25
0.36
2.61
0.67
0.39
0.24
0.36
2.58
0.66
0.39
0.23
0.39
2.60
0.66
0.39
0.22
0.42
2.65
0.64
0.40
0.24
0.40
2.75
0.67
0.41
0.24
0.45
Total non-OPEC liquids (a) ..............
49.01
49.07
49.49
49.64
49.69
OPEC non-crude liquids .................
Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......
4.40
53.41
4.45
53.52
4.54
54.03
4.57
54.21
4.57
54.26
2006
- = no data available
FSU = Former Soviet Union
(a) Angola is not included in totals for Non-OPEC oil production.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
2007
2008
Year
2007
2008
1.37
0.89
3.77
2.54
1.68
2.22
0.82
9.15
2.53
2.47
27.44
1.37
1.99
30.80
30.46
31.74
5.04
4.49
4.53
4.83
36.73
36.93
35.29
34.99
36.57
33.62
34.10
34.34
1.39
0.89
3.78
2.60
1.69
2.22
0.82
10.50
2.55
2.47
28.91
1.37
1.99
32.27
32.57
33.87
2.00
2.27
2.44
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.01
1.35
0.02
0.00
1.47
0.00
0.00
1.47
2.12
2.13
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Crude Oil
Algeria ...........................................
Indonesia ......................................
Iran ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC-10 Total ...........................
Angola ...........................................
Iraq ................................................
OPEC-12 Total ...........................
1.38
0.92
3.85
2.56
1.66
2.23
0.80
9.41
2.50
2.50
27.82
1.38
1.77
30.96
1.36
0.91
3.77
2.53
1.70
2.18
0.80
9.22
2.50
2.50
27.46
1.30
1.98
30.74
1.37
0.89
3.75
2.55
1.70
2.18
0.84
9.20
2.60
2.43
27.51
1.41
2.18
31.11
1.37
0.86
3.72
2.50
1.67
2.27
0.82
8.78
2.53
2.45
26.97
1.40
2.03
30.40
1.36
0.86
3.70
2.43
1.68
2.11
0.79
8.65
2.49
2.36
26.43
1.57
1.93
29.93
1.36
0.85
3.70
2.42
1.68
2.06
0.79
8.60
2.50
2.40
26.36
1.64
2.07
30.07
30.56
31.25
31.60
31.62
31.83
31.90
Other Liquids ..................................
4.40
4.45
4.54
4.57
4.57
4.51
4.49
4.55
4.65
4.74
4.90
Total OPEC-12 Supply ...................
35.36
35.19
35.66
34.97
34.51
34.58
35.05
35.80
36.25
36.36
Crude Oil Production Capacity
Algeria ...........................................
Indonesia ......................................
Iran ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC-10 Total ...........................
Angola ...........................................
Iraq ................................................
OPEC-12 Total ...........................
1.38
0.92
3.85
2.60
1.66
2.23
0.80
10.50
2.50
2.50
28.94
1.38
1.77
32.09
1.38
0.91
3.77
2.60
1.70
2.18
0.80
10.50
2.50
2.50
28.83
1.30
1.98
32.12
1.38
0.89
3.75
2.60
1.70
2.18
0.84
10.50
2.60
2.43
28.88
1.41
2.18
32.47
1.40
0.86
3.75
2.60
1.70
2.27
0.85
10.50
2.60
2.45
28.98
1.40
2.03
32.41
1.42
0.86
3.75
2.60
1.70
2.11
0.85
10.50
2.60
2.45
28.84
1.57
1.93
32.34
1.42
0.85
3.75
2.62
1.70
2.07
0.85
10.50
2.60
2.43
28.78
1.64
2.07
32.49
32.65
32.81
33.40
Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Algeria ...........................................
0.00
Indonesia ......................................
0.00
Iran ................................................
0.00
Kuwait ............................................
0.04
Libya ..............................................
0.00
Nigeria ...........................................
0.00
Qatar .............................................
0.00
Saudi Arabia .................................
1.09
United Arab Emirates ....................
0.00
Venezuela .....................................
0.00
OPEC-10 Total ...........................
1.13
Angola ...........................................
0.00
Iraq ................................................
0.00
OPEC-12 Total ...........................
1.13
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.28
0.00
0.00
1.37
0.00
0.00
1.37
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.30
0.00
0.00
1.36
0.00
0.00
1.36
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.10
0.03
0.00
0.03
1.72
0.07
0.00
2.01
0.00
0.00
2.01
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.17
0.02
0.00
0.06
1.85
0.11
0.09
2.41
0.00
0.00
2.41
0.06
0.00
0.05
0.20
0.02
0.01
0.06
1.90
0.10
0.03
2.42
0.00
0.00
2.42
2.09
1.56
1.80
2006
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data
Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) ..................................
Alaska ..........................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ............................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ........................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) .................................
SPR Net Withdrawals .....................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ..........
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) .................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries .....................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain ................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production ......................
Other HC/Oxygenates Adjustment (e) .............
Fuel Ethanol Production ...............................
Product Net Imports (c) ...................................
Pentanes Plus ..............................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ..............................
Unfinished Oils .............................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ...................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .......................
Finished Motor Gasoline ..............................
Jet Fuel .........................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ..........................................
Residual Fuel Oil ..........................................
Other Oils (f) .................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Total Supply ........................................................
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
5.07
0.80
1.24
3.03
9.80
-0.02
-0.21
0.02
14.66
5.15
0.79
1.32
3.04
10.26
-0.02
0.07
-0.03
15.43
5.07
0.65
1.48
2.94
10.48
0.00
0.04
0.15
15.74
5.13
0.72
1.45
2.96
9.82
-0.01
0.22
-0.03
15.12
5.17
0.76
1.39
3.03
9.87
0.00
-0.22
-0.04
14.76
5.20
0.74
1.40
3.05
10.12
-0.02
-0.25
0.17
15.22
5.00
0.65
1.30
3.05
10.13
-0.03
0.43
-0.01
15.52
5.07
0.72
1.39
2.96
9.73
-0.05
0.21
0.10
15.06
5.26
0.78
1.44
3.03
9.78
-0.07
-0.21
0.03
14.79
5.22
0.71
1.49
3.02
10.30
-0.07
-0.02
0.07
15.50
5.10
0.67
1.39
3.04
10.19
-0.06
0.21
0.05
15.50
5.33
0.71
1.53
3.09
9.58
0.00
0.05
0.03
14.99
5.10
0.74
1.37
2.99
10.09
-0.01
0.03
0.03
15.24
5.11
0.72
1.37
3.02
9.96
-0.02
0.04
0.06
15.14
5.23
0.72
1.46
3.05
9.96
-0.05
0.01
0.05
15.20
0.98
1.69
0.47
0.30
2.45
0.03
0.18
0.61
0.02
0.54
0.47
0.11
0.28
0.23
-0.02
0.30
20.54
0.96
1.75
0.48
0.30
2.38
0.02
0.29
0.70
-0.05
0.83
0.33
0.18
0.14
0.03
-0.08
-0.46
20.55
1.03
1.76
0.53
0.33
2.51
0.00
0.36
0.79
-0.01
0.70
0.33
0.18
0.10
0.02
0.03
-0.66
20.91
1.00
1.76
0.51
0.35
1.85
0.02
0.27
0.65
-0.01
0.57
0.21
0.11
0.09
-0.01
-0.04
0.50
20.75
0.99
1.71
0.57
0.38
2.03
0.02
0.19
0.74
-0.04
0.66
0.20
0.18
0.15
0.12
-0.19
0.69
20.75
0.97
1.77
0.59
0.40
2.40
0.02
0.19
0.79
-0.05
0.84
0.40
0.23
0.08
0.06
-0.15
-0.30
20.65
1.02
1.78
0.61
0.43
2.06
0.03
0.20
0.68
-0.03
0.75
0.34
0.19
0.03
0.01
-0.13
-0.29
20.70
0.99
1.74
0.61
0.45
2.15
0.06
0.29
0.56
-0.01
0.67
0.32
0.17
0.14
0.06
-0.11
0.38
20.93
0.99
1.76
0.66
0.51
2.32
0.03
0.27
0.64
0.01
0.64
0.39
0.14
0.17
0.13
-0.10
0.46
20.99
1.00
1.76
0.70
0.55
2.46
0.03
0.27
0.63
-0.01
0.88
0.35
0.20
0.13
0.07
-0.09
-0.59
20.83
0.99
1.77
0.71
0.56
2.42
0.03
0.32
0.66
-0.01
0.79
0.41
0.20
0.09
0.05
-0.11
-0.29
21.09
1.02
1.74
0.72
0.57
2.29
0.04
0.26
0.59
-0.02
0.61
0.41
0.16
0.20
0.14
-0.11
0.32
21.08
0.99
1.74
0.50
0.32
2.30
0.02
0.28
0.69
-0.01
0.66
0.33
0.14
0.15
0.07
-0.03
-0.08
20.69
0.99
1.75
0.60
0.42
2.16
0.03
0.22
0.69
-0.03
0.73
0.32
0.19
0.10
0.06
-0.14
0.12
20.76
1.00
1.76
0.70
0.55
2.37
0.03
0.28
0.63
-0.01
0.73
0.39
0.17
0.15
0.09
-0.10
-0.03
21.00
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus .................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................
Unfinished Oils ................................................
Finished Petroleum Products
Motor Gasoline ................................................
Jet Fuel ............................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .............................................
Residual Fuel Oil .............................................
Other Oils (f) ....................................................
Total Consumption .............................................
0.08
2.21
0.02
0.06
1.93
0.08
0.06
1.97
-0.01
0.13
2.11
0.04
0.10
2.36
0.11
0.10
1.93
0.05
0.11
1.91
-0.08
0.12
2.18
-0.01
0.12
2.40
0.02
0.11
1.91
0.01
0.11
1.96
-0.03
0.12
2.19
-0.01
0.08
2.05
0.03
0.11
2.10
0.02
0.11
2.11
0.00
8.94
1.58
4.29
0.85
2.58
20.54
9.31
1.66
4.05
0.63
2.82
20.55
9.47
1.67
4.08
0.66
3.01
20.91
9.28
1.62
4.26
0.62
2.69
20.75
9.03
1.60
4.39
0.82
2.36
20.77
9.39
1.64
4.13
0.73
2.67
20.65
9.49
1.64
4.11
0.70
2.82
20.70
9.32
1.64
4.34
0.74
2.60
20.93
9.10
1.61
4.48
0.82
2.45
20.99
9.48
1.65
4.20
0.70
2.77
20.83
9.60
1.68
4.16
0.70
2.90
21.09
9.41
1.66
4.36
0.75
2.61
21.08
9.25
1.63
4.17
0.69
2.78
20.69
9.31
1.63
4.24
0.75
2.61
20.76
9.40
1.65
4.30
0.74
2.68
21.00
Total Petroleum Net Imports
............................
12.25
12.64
12.99
11.67
11.89
12.52
12.19
11.88
12.11
12.76
12.60
11.87
12.39
12.12
12.33
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) ..............................
Pentanes Plus .................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................
Unfinished Oils ................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ......................................
Total Motor Gasoline .......................................
Finished Motor Gasoline ..............................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. .......................
Jet Fuel ............................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .............................................
Residual Fuel Oil .............................................
Other Oils (f) ....................................................
Total Commercial Inventory ................................
Crude Oil in SPR ................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ...........................................
342.7
8.8
72.8
95.3
11.2
208.7
124.2
84.6
42.0
120.5
40.8
62.2
1,005
686
2.0
336.7
12.3
108.1
91.2
8.7
213.3
119.1
94.1
39.4
129.9
42.7
58.6
1,041
688
2.0
332.7
16.9
140.4
89.8
11.5
214.1
120.5
93.6
41.9
149.3
43.4
57.1
1,097
688
2.0
312.3
12.0
113.1
83.8
10.4
211.8
116.1
95.7
39.1
143.7
42.4
62.3
1,031
689
2.0
331.9
11.3
70.3
95.2
10.2
201.2
108.8
92.4
40.1
119.7
39.1
69.2
988
689
2.0
354.8
10.9
102.4
88.8
10.5
204.9
116.7
88.2
41.2
123.4
36.1
65.7
1,039
690
2.0
315.3
12.1
125.2
91.5
13.4
198.7
112.3
86.4
42.9
133.6
37.0
56.4
1,026
693
2.0
296.2
11.2
93.9
81.2
12.7
205.3
109.3
96.0
39.8
136.0
37.2
58.9
972
697
2.0
315.1
9.7
59.7
93.0
14.0
205.5
105.8
99.6
38.2
110.9
36.1
67.5
950
703
2.0
316.9
10.6
100.5
89.7
13.6
211.8
115.4
96.3
39.6
121.8
36.5
64.5
1,006
710
2.0
297.4
11.4
132.2
88.6
14.2
202.8
110.1
92.7
40.3
135.4
35.2
55.1
1,013
715
2.0
292.8
9.5
99.1
81.3
13.5
209.8
116.3
93.5
39.4
137.8
37.9
57.2
978
715
2.0
312.3
12.0
113.1
83.8
10.4
211.8
116.1
95.7
39.1
143.7
42.4
62.3
1,031
689
2.0
296.2
11.2
93.9
81.2
12.7
205.3
109.3
96.0
39.8
136.0
37.2
58.9
972
697
2.0
292.8
9.5
99.1
81.3
13.5
209.8
116.3
93.5
39.4
137.8
37.9
57.2
978
715
2.0
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Other HC/oxygenates adjustment balances supply and consumption and includes MTBE and fuel ethanol production reported in the EIA-819M Monthly Oxygenate Report . This adjustment was previously
referred to as "Field Production."
(f) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and
miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
Refinery Inputs
Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery Inputs ..............................................
14.66
0.18
0.32
0.42
0.48
0.07
0.00
16.14
15.43
0.19
0.27
0.43
0.66
0.36
0.00
17.34
15.74
0.17
0.29
0.45
0.82
0.16
0.00
17.63
15.12
0.20
0.39
0.47
0.68
-0.06
0.00
16.80
14.76
0.16
0.32
0.46
0.50
0.18
0.00
16.38
15.22
0.19
0.26
0.47
0.81
0.30
0.00
17.24
15.52
0.18
0.29
0.48
0.72
0.19
0.00
17.38
15.06
0.21
0.35
0.57
0.69
0.08
0.00
16.95
14.79
0.18
0.31
0.63
0.49
0.11
0.00
16.50
15.50
0.19
0.24
0.64
0.66
0.28
0.00
17.51
15.50
0.19
0.26
0.64
0.70
0.22
0.00
17.51
14.99
0.20
0.36
0.66
0.68
0.08
0.00
16.97
15.24
0.18
0.32
0.44
0.66
0.13
0.00
16.98
15.14
0.18
0.31
0.49
0.68
0.19
0.00
16.99
15.20
0.19
0.29
0.64
0.63
0.17
0.00
17.12
Refinery Processing Gain .................................
0.98
0.96
1.03
1.00
0.99
0.97
1.02
0.99
0.99
1.00
0.99
1.02
0.99
0.99
1.00
Refinery Outputs
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery Output .............................................
0.49
7.97
1.47
3.84
0.65
2.69
17.11
0.82
8.53
1.46
4.02
0.62
2.86
18.31
0.77
8.57
1.51
4.20
0.64
2.97
18.66
0.43
8.37
1.48
4.11
0.63
2.79
17.80
0.54
8.13
1.44
3.98
0.66
2.62
17.37
0.85
8.42
1.43
4.10
0.64
2.78
18.22
0.75
8.45
1.46
4.19
0.70
2.85
18.40
0.42
8.45
1.44
4.23
0.68
2.73
17.94
0.54
8.14
1.45
4.04
0.68
2.64
17.49
0.84
8.55
1.47
4.19
0.64
2.82
18.51
0.76
8.48
1.49
4.22
0.64
2.91
18.50
0.44
8.49
1.50
4.19
0.64
2.74
17.99
0.63
8.36
1.48
4.04
0.64
2.83
17.98
0.64
8.36
1.44
4.12
0.67
2.75
17.98
0.65
8.42
1.48
4.16
0.65
2.78
18.12
Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................
Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............
15.00
17.36
0.86
15.78
17.39
0.91
16.16
17.39
0.93
15.46
17.40
0.89
15.13
17.46
0.87
15.49
17.45
0.89
15.74
17.45
0.90
15.31
17.45
0.88
15.16
17.45
0.87
15.85
17.45
0.91
15.85
17.45
0.91
15.36
17.45
0.88
15.60
17.38
0.90
15.42
17.45
0.88
15.56
17.45
0.89
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
Prices (cents per gallon)
Refiner Wholesale Price ......................
176
225
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Excluding Taxes
PADD 1 (East Coast) ..........................
187
236
PADD 2 (Midwest) ..............................
187
232
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ...........................
187
235
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ..................
181
229
PADD 5 (West Coast) .........................
194
255
U.S. Average ...................................
188
237
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
236
285
PADD 2 ..............................................
232
278
PADD 3 ..............................................
228
277
PADD 4 ..............................................
226
274
PADD 5 ..............................................
243
306
U.S. Average ...................................
234
285
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
239
289
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
52.8
PADD 2 ..............................................
54.5
PADD 3 ..............................................
64.6
PADD 4 ..............................................
6.1
PADD 5 ..............................................
30.7
U.S. Total ........................................
208.7
Finished Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
34.5
PADD 2 ..............................................
37.2
PADD 3 ..............................................
39.1
PADD 4 ..............................................
4.4
PADD 5 ..............................................
9.0
U.S. Total ........................................
124.2
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
18.3
PADD 2 ..............................................
17.3
PADD 3 ..............................................
25.5
PADD 4 ..............................................
1.7
PADD 5 ..............................................
21.8
U.S. Total ........................................
84.6
2008
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
216
168
176
238
222
239
242
273
253
222
197
219
248
232
229
229
244
245
233
177
175
173
183
197
179
186
183
181
181
213
188
244
253
247
259
266
251
230
244
232
245
232
235
244
246
242
249
259
247
250
252
246
250
270
254
282
285
280
286
305
287
266
266
262
274
283
269
235
233
231
240
250
237
208
206
206
210
223
210
227
232
226
234
243
231
258
259
255
263
277
261
284
277
273
291
303
284
288
225
221
214
231
250
226
231
235
229
222
228
268
236
241
295
302
289
307
326
302
306
280
292
275
292
292
285
290
295
294
284
296
316
297
301
300
299
290
296
322
302
306
334
332
324
332
359
336
341
318
314
306
321
337
318
323
287
280
275
287
304
286
291
258
252
248
256
276
258
262
277
280
268
281
301
281
285
310
306
299
309
331
311
315
57.2
50.9
67.7
5.8
31.7
213.3
57.6
54.9
66.4
6.3
28.9
214.1
54.3
53.7
66.5
7.1
30.2
211.8
54.2
49.1
63.5
6.5
27.9
201.2
53.1
49.8
65.3
6.3
30.5
204.9
51.0
49.9
62.8
6.1
28.8
198.7
54.0
49.4
66.3
6.0
29.7
205.3
53.4
50.2
66.0
6.2
29.7
205.5
57.8
51.2
67.2
5.6
29.9
211.8
52.3
50.8
64.8
5.7
29.2
202.8
54.6
51.9
66.8
6.4
30.1
209.8
54.3
53.7
66.5
7.1
30.2
211.8
54.0
49.4
66.3
6.0
29.7
205.3
54.6
51.9
66.8
6.4
30.1
209.8
29.3
35.3
40.1
4.3
10.2
119.1
30.7
37.8
38.6
4.4
9.0
120.5
29.3
37.2
37.8
4.9
6.9
116.1
25.8
33.6
36.7
4.6
8.2
108.8
30.0
34.5
38.2
4.4
9.7
116.7
28.5
34.1
36.7
4.4
8.6
112.3
27.8
33.4
37.4
4.1
6.6
109.3
24.9
33.5
35.8
4.5
7.1
105.8
29.8
34.6
38.9
4.2
8.0
115.4
26.5
34.8
37.2
4.3
7.2
110.1
29.2
36.2
39.7
4.5
6.6
116.3
29.3
37.2
37.8
4.9
6.9
116.1
27.8
33.4
37.4
4.1
6.6
109.3
29.2
36.2
39.7
4.5
6.6
116.3
27.9
15.5
27.7
1.5
21.5
94.1
26.9
17.1
27.8
1.8
19.9
93.6
24.9
16.4
28.7
2.3
23.4
95.7
28.5
15.5
26.8
1.9
19.7
92.4
23.1
15.3
27.1
1.9
20.8
88.2
22.5
15.8
26.1
1.7
20.3
86.4
26.1
16.0
28.9
1.8
23.1
96.0
28.5
16.7
30.1
1.7
22.6
99.6
28.0
16.6
28.3
1.5
21.9
96.3
25.8
15.9
27.6
1.4
21.9
92.7
25.4
15.7
27.0
1.9
23.5
93.5
24.9
16.4
28.7
2.3
23.4
95.7
26.1
16.0
28.9
1.8
23.1
96.0
25.4
15.7
27.0
1.9
23.5
93.5
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4d. U.S. Regional Heating Oil Prices and Distillate Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
2007
3rd
Prices (cents per gallon)
Refiner Wholesale Prices
Heating Oil .........................
175
199
Diesel Fuel .........................
184
217
Heating Oil Residential Prices Excluding Taxes
Northeast ...........................
234
245
South .................................
235
239
Midwest .............................
220
241
West ..................................
239
265
U.S. Average ..................
233
245
Heating Oil Residential Prices Including State Taxes
Northeast ...........................
245
257
South .................................
245
249
Midwest .............................
232
255
West ..................................
248
274
U.S. Average ..................
245
257
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
195
217
173
186
170
184
196
212
208
224
249
258
247
257
244
259
232
248
227
239
183
201
206
220
238
251
245
236
247
265
245
236
226
228
253
235
240
228
225
247
238
249
237
247
258
248
256
248
259
265
255
309
296
302
309
307
310
297
299
312
308
300
288
292
307
298
281
272
280
293
280
285
277
281
293
284
237
233
229
250
236
261
251
257
273
260
299
287
289
303
297
257
246
262
271
256
247
235
241
259
246
252
238
238
254
250
262
248
262
265
261
268
259
274
272
268
324
308
320
317
322
325
310
316
320
323
314
300
309
315
313
295
284
296
301
294
300
289
297
301
298
249
243
242
259
248
273
262
272
280
272
313
299
306
311
311
Total Distillate End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
PADD 1 (East Coast) ............
45.1
55.4
69.4
PADD 2 (Midwest) ................
30.1
25.5
30.6
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) .............
30.6
33.5
33.9
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ....
2.6
3.0
2.9
PADD 5 (West Coast) ...........
12.0
12.6
12.5
U.S. Total ...........................
120.5
129.9
149.3
68.6
27.1
32.5
3.2
12.2
143.7
43.6
28.5
31.9
3.3
12.4
119.7
44.8
30.1
33.5
3.1
11.9
123.4
57.2
29.2
32.5
2.7
12.0
133.6
57.8
30.7
31.6
3.0
12.9
136.0
38.7
27.8
29.8
2.9
11.6
110.9
45.9
29.2
31.9
2.9
11.8
121.8
60.4
29.3
31.2
2.7
11.7
135.4
59.8
29.8
32.3
3.2
12.7
137.8
68.6
27.1
32.5
3.2
12.2
143.7
57.8
30.7
31.6
3.0
12.9
136.0
59.8
29.8
32.3
3.2
12.7
137.8
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) for inventories and to U.S. Census regions for prices.
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” and "Census region" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4e. U.S. Regional Propane Prices and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
Prices (cents per gallon)
Propane Wholesale Price (a) .....
96
103
Propane Residential Prices excluding Taxes
Northeast ..................................
211
220
South .......................................
203
201
Midwest ....................................
159
157
West ........................................
199
199
U.S. Average .........................
186
190
Propane Residential Prices including State Taxes
Northeast ..................................
220
230
South .......................................
213
211
Midwest ....................................
167
166
West ........................................
210
210
U.S. Average .........................
196
200
Propane End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
PADD 1 (East Coast) ...................
2.5
4.6
PADD 2 (Midwest) .......................
11.3
20.6
PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ....................
15.6
22.5
PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ...........
0.3
0.5
PADD 5 (West Coast) ..................
0.4
1.4
U.S. Total .................................
30.0
49.6
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
107
95
95
111
119
144
143
142
138
136
100
117
140
230
201
159
191
187
219
204
162
201
188
220
207
167
211
194
233
212
169
206
201
242
207
167
197
195
260
254
197
235
228
262
257
203
243
233
262
245
198
232
229
259
231
187
217
214
255
240
195
231
222
217
202
160
198
188
235
223
177
214
205
260
247
197
233
226
241
211
168
202
197
229
214
171
213
198
230
218
177
223
204
244
222
178
217
212
252
217
176
208
205
272
267
208
249
240
274
270
215
257
245
274
257
209
246
241
271
242
198
229
225
266
252
206
244
233
227
213
169
210
198
246
234
187
226
216
271
259
209
246
238
5.0
26.4
36.6
0.5
2.6
71.1
5.3
22.7
31.2
0.5
2.0
61.6
3.2
8.6
14.4
0.4
0.4
27.0
3.7
16.6
21.8
0.4
1.3
43.8
4.5
23.5
27.5
0.4
2.5
58.3
4.6
18.4
25.9
0.4
1.9
51.2
2.5
8.7
12.4
0.3
0.7
24.5
3.8
18.0
22.3
0.4
1.4
45.9
4.8
24.6
33.2
0.5
2.6
65.7
4.7
19.9
27.4
0.5
1.8
54.2
5.3
22.7
31.2
0.5
2.0
61.6
4.6
18.4
25.9
0.4
1.9
51.2
4.7
19.9
27.4
0.5
1.8
54.2
- = no data available
(a) Propane price to petrochemical sector.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) for inventories and to U.S. Census regions for prices.
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” and "Census region" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
2007
2008
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
52.61
1.41
7.79
43.42
50.35
11.44
10.20
1.24
2.04
9.40
0.19
10.55
70.49
0.97
71.47
52.67
1.27
7.77
43.63
50.33
11.33
9.26
2.06
1.91
9.42
0.14
-10.25
49.64
2.70
52.34
53.45
0.98
7.90
44.57
51.09
11.62
10.00
1.63
1.81
9.82
0.18
-7.68
53.40
0.71
54.11
53.66
1.23
7.69
44.73
51.29
11.48
10.02
1.46
2.18
9.30
0.18
2.82
63.59
-3.57
60.02
53.32
1.34
7.65
44.33
51.01
13.01
10.96
2.05
2.25
10.75
0.20
16.26
78.22
0.60
78.82
53.97
1.14
7.63
45.19
51.58
12.62
9.55
3.07
1.87
10.75
0.13
-10.63
51.83
1.74
53.57
54.62
1.23
7.38
46.02
52.26
12.31
9.84
2.47
1.80
10.51
0.17
-7.60
55.34
1.24
56.22
55.00
1.36
7.95
45.69
52.63
10.58
9.51
1.06
1.75
8.82
0.17
3.75
65.37
-4.37
61.00
55.21
1.35
8.29
45.57
52.83
11.85
9.89
1.97
2.19
9.66
0.20
15.55
78.24
0.69
78.93
54.94
1.21
8.23
45.49
52.58
11.86
9.13
2.72
1.85
10.01
0.15
-9.77
52.97
1.29
54.27
55.11
1.22
7.63
46.27
52.74
12.39
9.51
2.88
1.78
10.61
0.17
-8.93
54.59
1.93
56.52
55.10
1.35
8.04
45.71
52.73
12.08
9.36
2.72
1.87
10.21
0.18
4.13
67.25
-4.51
62.74
53.10
1.22
7.79
44.09
50.77
11.47
9.87
1.60
1.98
9.49
0.17
-1.18
59.25
0.19
59.44
54.23
1.27
7.65
45.31
51.88
12.12
9.96
2.16
1.92
10.21
0.17
0.39
62.64
-0.21
62.34
55.09
1.28
8.05
45.76
52.72
12.05
9.47
2.57
1.92
10.12
0.18
0.23
63.25
-0.16
63.09
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential ...................................
22.64
Commercial .................................
12.69
Industrial ......................................
19.20
Electric Power (c) .........................
11.91
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.09
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
1.88
Vehicle Use .................................
0.07
Total Consumption ..........................
71.47
7.67
5.74
17.24
17.14
3.09
1.38
0.07
52.34
3.79
4.15
17.07
24.48
3.13
1.43
0.07
54.11
13.82
8.60
18.26
14.55
3.15
1.58
0.07
60.02
25.74
14.00
19.51
14.29
3.13
2.08
0.07
78.82
8.37
6.19
16.86
17.50
3.17
1.41
0.07
53.57
3.77
4.19
16.92
27.01
3.21
1.41
0.07
56.59
13.92
8.80
17.97
15.52
3.14
1.58
0.07
61.00
25.74
14.04
19.35
14.53
3.14
2.05
0.08
78.93
8.46
6.16
16.95
18.08
3.12
1.41
0.08
54.27
4.05
4.26
17.05
26.57
3.12
1.40
0.08
56.52
14.59
9.09
18.46
15.81
3.12
1.59
0.08
62.74
11.93
7.77
17.94
17.05
3.11
1.56
0.07
59.44
12.90
8.27
17.81
18.61
3.16
1.62
0.07
62.43
13.19
8.38
17.95
18.76
3.13
1.61
0.08
63.09
End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)
Working Gas Inventory ................
1,692
Producing Region (d) ................
624
East Consuming Region (d) ......
831
West Consuming Region (d) .....
236
2,617
850
1,404
363
3,323
970
1,903
450
3,070
953
1,726
391
1,603
649
715
239
2,580
899
1,309
372
3,291
971
1,888
432
2,953
935
1,617
402
1,538
639
656
243
2,427
873
1,202
352
3,248
1,008
1,819
421
2,868
936
1,563
369
3,070
953
1,726
391
2,953
935
1,617
402
2,868
936
1,563
369
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................
2006
Year
2007
1st
2008
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet/ Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Residential Sector
New England ..............
Middle Atlantic ............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central .............
S. Atlantic ...................
E. S. Central ...............
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
Total ........................
Commercial Sector
New England ..............
Middle Atlantic ............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central .............
S. Atlantic ...................
E. S. Central ...............
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
Total ........................
Industrial Sector
New England ..............
Middle Atlantic ............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central .............
S. Atlantic ...................
E. S. Central ...............
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
Total ........................
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
0.92
4.21
6.39
2.08
2.12
0.95
1.53
1.67
2.76
22.64
0.37
1.39
2.02
0.59
0.56
0.24
0.47
0.60
1.44
7.67
0.14
0.61
0.90
0.29
0.33
0.12
0.28
0.30
0.82
3.79
0.41
2.18
4.14
1.31
1.35
0.55
0.85
1.13
1.90
13.82
0.99
4.67
7.46
2.42
2.37
1.03
2.01
1.89
2.89
25.74
0.40
1.64
2.27
0.66
0.67
0.25
0.54
0.61
1.34
8.37
0.14
0.62
0.86
0.29
0.33
0.11
0.28
0.29
0.86
3.77
0.49
2.25
4.14
1.31
1.42
0.52
0.83
1.11
1.87
13.92
1.02
4.73
7.34
2.46
2.44
1.05
1.81
1.95
2.95
25.74
0.40
1.63
2.29
0.67
0.66
0.25
0.48
0.65
1.45
8.46
0.15
0.66
0.98
0.28
0.35
0.11
0.30
0.33
0.89
4.05
0.49
2.32
4.35
1.37
1.48
0.53
0.85
1.22
2.00
14.59
0.46
2.09
3.35
1.07
1.09
0.46
0.78
0.92
1.72
11.93
0.50
2.28
3.67
1.16
1.19
0.47
0.91
0.97
1.74
12.90
0.51
2.33
3.73
1.19
1.23
0.48
0.86
1.03
1.82
13.19
0.54
2.52
3.15
1.27
1.44
0.59
0.98
0.96
1.24
12.69
0.24
1.17
1.15
0.47
0.68
0.23
0.51
0.45
0.85
5.74
0.14
0.87
0.74
0.30
0.55
0.18
0.42
0.28
0.68
4.15
0.28
1.50
2.14
0.85
1.05
0.39
0.69
0.67
1.02
8.60
0.60
2.70
3.52
1.44
1.58
0.64
1.15
1.05
1.33
14.00
0.27
1.27
1.30
0.50
0.76
0.25
0.56
0.45
0.84
6.19
0.13
0.91
0.73
0.30
0.55
0.18
0.43
0.28
0.69
4.19
0.32
1.71
2.15
0.85
1.06
0.38
0.69
0.64
1.00
8.80
0.59
2.82
3.52
1.43
1.61
0.65
1.11
1.00
1.32
14.04
0.25
1.30
1.23
0.49
0.74
0.25
0.56
0.46
0.88
6.16
0.14
0.90
0.69
0.30
0.56
0.18
0.45
0.29
0.74
4.26
0.32
1.71
2.24
0.88
1.11
0.38
0.72
0.69
1.04
9.09
0.30
1.51
1.79
0.72
0.93
0.35
0.65
0.59
0.95
7.77
0.33
1.64
1.92
0.77
0.98
0.36
0.71
0.60
0.96
8.27
0.32
1.68
1.92
0.77
1.00
0.36
0.71
0.61
1.00
8.38
0.31
1.07
3.62
1.30
1.53
1.30
6.63
0.89
2.55
19.20
0.21
0.86
2.75
1.11
1.44
1.19
6.57
0.68
2.44
17.24
0.16
0.80
2.61
1.14
1.39
1.17
6.61
0.66
2.51
17.07
0.22
0.92
3.19
1.26
1.45
1.26
6.62
0.84
2.49
18.26
0.33
1.08
3.85
1.39
1.51
1.38
6.68
0.90
2.40
19.51
0.22
0.85
2.76
1.15
1.35
1.19
6.45
0.65
2.25
16.86
0.16
0.80
2.57
1.18
1.33
1.11
6.44
0.74
2.59
16.92
0.24
0.90
3.12
1.26
1.42
1.27
6.57
0.87
2.32
17.97
0.31
1.05
3.73
1.37
1.50
1.37
6.73
0.90
2.40
19.35
0.18
0.83
2.67
1.15
1.34
1.21
6.51
0.73
2.34
16.95
0.16
0.80
2.46
1.15
1.35
1.17
6.74
0.74
2.49
17.05
0.25
0.94
3.21
1.34
1.46
1.32
6.64
0.89
2.41
18.46
0.23
0.91
3.04
1.20
1.45
1.23
6.61
0.77
2.50
17.94
0.23
0.91
3.07
1.24
1.40
1.24
6.53
0.79
2.39
17.81
0.23
0.90
3.02
1.25
1.41
1.27
6.65
0.81
2.41
17.95
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5c. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
7.49
7.93
6.19
6.74
5.96
6.27
6.02
6.83
6.37
7.41
6.89
7.76
5.90
6.35
6.40
7.34
6.89
8.03
6.40
7.40
6.68
7.40
7.36
8.27
6.41
6.93
6.39
7.21
6.83
7.78
17.86
15.63
12.98
12.67
16.95
15.87
12.92
12.10
12.87
14.08
17.26
15.96
12.59
13.16
18.66
16.46
14.27
12.69
11.53
13.96
19.45
18.57
14.27
15.87
22.18
18.58
17.60
14.90
11.62
15.84
16.52
14.65
10.97
11.44
15.69
13.74
12.60
10.78
11.34
12.52
15.98
14.22
10.98
11.38
14.90
13.16
10.69
10.61
11.73
12.30
16.91
15.74
12.81
13.48
18.57
15.69
14.49
11.72
12.64
14.18
19.09
18.64
15.24
17.04
23.91
18.15
16.54
14.50
12.47
16.48
16.41
15.40
11.64
11.95
16.13
14.47
13.18
11.26
11.60
13.11
16.27
15.43
11.66
11.95
15.71
14.17
12.12
11.20
12.43
13.16
16.32
15.63
12.44
12.89
18.35
15.03
13.74
11.32
12.04
13.73
19.18
19.20
14.81
16.41
22.31
18.35
16.74
14.54
12.59
16.32
17.03
15.90
12.40
12.65
16.76
15.08
13.97
11.99
12.54
13.80
17.55
15.64
12.38
12.57
17.18
15.48
13.46
12.02
12.02
13.75
16.48
15.09
11.70
12.19
16.42
14.14
12.27
11.26
11.96
13.14
16.67
15.85
12.21
12.54
16.85
14.77
13.22
11.72
12.40
13.67
15.87
14.30
12.37
11.78
14.87
14.73
11.48
11.08
12.06
13.08
14.32
11.77
11.16
10.46
13.18
13.18
9.97
10.57
10.31
11.40
13.99
10.72
10.69
10.50
12.78
12.10
10.44
11.18
10.00
11.06
13.90
11.93
10.32
10.01
12.68
12.20
10.16
9.79
10.43
11.06
14.13
12.45
10.67
10.62
12.70
12.05
9.66
9.63
11.06
11.36
14.20
12.08
11.12
10.84
12.84
12.57
10.61
9.97
11.04
11.64
13.32
10.97
10.82
10.50
12.76
12.75
10.35
10.60
10.63
11.23
13.30
12.60
10.65
10.26
13.34
12.89
10.67
10.49
10.55
11.52
14.44
13.64
11.47
10.97
14.01
13.27
10.56
10.75
11.45
12.29
13.42
12.23
10.86
10.50
13.08
12.13
10.07
10.19
10.35
11.45
13.66
12.02
11.45
10.95
13.40
12.52
10.84
11.44
10.65
11.80
14.55
13.46
11.59
11.21
14.12
13.51
11.58
11.29
11.50
12.40
14.93
12.76
11.41
10.93
13.63
13.44
10.68
10.63
10.90
11.97
13.87
12.24
10.75
10.54
12.90
12.44
10.18
10.03
10.85
11.44
14.20
13.13
11.41
10.97
13.79
13.06
10.76
10.88
11.09
12.11
14.90
12.89
10.99
10.47
11.47
11.80
8.09
10.08
9.18
9.46
12.37
10.19
9.60
7.55
9.25
8.99
6.74
9.26
7.19
7.51
10.78
9.39
8.62
7.62
8.77
8.50
6.50
9.27
6.95
7.14
11.66
10.24
8.65
7.81
8.89
8.82
6.31
9.20
8.30
7.26
12.91
11.68
9.66
8.82
9.35
8.90
6.99
9.44
9.00
8.02
12.56
10.87
9.99
8.07
9.40
8.88
7.61
9.08
8.12
8.11
10.55
10.08
9.78
7.09
8.77
8.15
6.48
8.68
7.62
6.76
11.71
11.10
9.42
8.16
9.54
9.16
7.26
9.34
8.40
8.10
13.32
11.97
10.18
9.22
10.24
9.84
7.80
9.94
9.05
8.77
11.90
10.26
9.50
7.89
9.12
8.93
7.19
8.83
7.46
7.74
11.01
10.45
9.62
7.93
9.32
8.94
7.37
9.26
7.98
7.58
12.56
11.57
10.08
8.93
10.34
9.88
8.21
9.85
9.11
8.96
12.91
11.01
9.74
8.44
9.71
9.63
6.89
9.49
7.96
7.88
12.18
11.07
9.66
8.09
9.29
8.82
7.08
9.17
8.29
7.76
12.49
11.23
9.96
8.56
9.81
9.45
7.64
9.51
8.42
8.29
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http://Intelligencepress.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
Supply (million short tons)
Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................
289.1
103.5
37.6
148.0
-0.1
9.0
10.7
6.6
4.1
287.3
292.4
100.3
36.8
155.3
-0.2
8.0
12.6
7.1
5.5
287.6
289.8
94.3
38.8
156.8
2.1
10.4
13.5
6.7
6.8
288.8
291.4
93.8
38.2
159.4
-3.4
8.9
12.9
7.1
5.8
284.1
284.8
99.2
38.2
147.4
2.5
8.8
11.1
6.7
4.4
285.0
284.9
94.8
36.3
153.8
1.5
8.4
14.7
7.9
6.8
280.1
288.2
95.1
38.8
154.3
2.4
10.6
16.2
9.2
7.0
284.9
293.4
92.9
38.8
161.7
-0.7
9.1
15.1
8.1
7.0
286.8
287.8
98.0
37.7
152.1
-1.7
8.8
12.2
6.3
6.0
282.7
268.0
89.2
34.1
144.7
1.1
9.9
14.8
8.2
6.6
264.2
286.8
95.3
37.5
154.0
1.2
10.1
17.6
10.2
7.5
280.4
289.6
93.1
37.9
158.6
2.9
9.0
15.3
9.2
6.1
286.2
1162.7
391.9
151.4
619.4
-1.6
36.2
49.6
27.5
22.1
1147.8
1151.3
382.1
152.1
617.1
5.8
36.9
57.1
31.9
25.2
1136.9
1132.2
375.6
147.2
609.4
3.4
37.9
60.0
33.8
26.2
1113.5
Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....
Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................
-10.7
3.5
280.1
-24.2
3.1
266.4
8.4
3.6
300.8
-14.6
3.5
273.0
-0.7
3.1
287.4
-13.3
3.3
270.1
13.8
3.7
302.5
1.2
3.8
291.8
-3.1
3.7
283.4
-5.7
3.7
262.2
16.3
3.7
300.4
-4.2
3.7
285.7
-41.1
13.6
1120.3
0.9
13.9
1151.7
3.3
15.0
1131.7
Consumption (million short tons)
Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................
5.7
250.9
16.4
1.0
15.5
273.0
5.8
240.4
15.3
0.6
14.7
261.5
5.8
279.6
15.5
0.6
14.9
300.9
5.7
255.8
16.5
1.0
15.5
277.9
5.3
257.4
15.8
1.0
14.8
278.5
5.7
247.1
14.9
0.6
14.3
267.7
5.9
284.4
15.5
0.6
14.8
305.8
5.9
260.2
18.9
1.2
17.7
285.0
5.9
259.8
17.7
1.5
16.2
283.4
6.0
240.7
15.5
0.8
14.7
262.2
6.1
278.3
16.0
0.8
15.2
300.4
5.7
262.6
17.4
1.3
16.1
285.7
23.0
1026.6
63.8
3.2
60.5
1113.4
22.7
1049.2
65.1
3.5
61.7
1137.1
23.7
1041.4
66.6
4.4
62.2
1131.7
7.1
4.9
-0.2
-5.0
8.9
2.3
-3.4
6.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.9
14.6
0.0
End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)
Primary Inventories (d) ......................
35.1
Secondary Inventories (e) ................
120.0
Electric Power Sector ....................
112.1
Retail and General Industry ...........
5.1
Coke Plants ..................................
2.8
35.3
144.2
135.7
5.7
2.8
33.2
135.8
126.9
6.1
2.8
36.5
150.4
141.0
6.5
2.9
34.0
151.1
143.0
5.8
2.4
32.5
164.5
156.4
5.7
2.4
30.1
150.7
143.9
5.1
1.7
30.8
149.5
146.0
3.2
0.2
32.5
152.5
149.5
2.7
0.4
31.4
158.2
154.9
2.9
0.5
30.2
142.0
138.1
3.4
0.5
27.3
146.2
141.9
3.6
0.7
36.5
150.4
141.0
6.5
2.9
30.8
149.5
146.0
3.2
0.2
27.3
146.2
141.9
3.6
0.7
6.26
6.26
6.26
6.26
6.16
6.16
6.16
6.16
6.06
6.06
6.06
6.06
6.26
6.16
6.06
0.297
0.297
0.295
0.266
0.279
0.295
0.299
0.294
0.292
0.292
0.292
0.280
0.289
0.292
0.289
1.69
1.70
1.70
1.69
1.76
1.78
1.77
1.75
1.80
1.81
1.79
1.76
1.69
1.76
1.79
Discrepancy (c)
Coal Market Indicators
Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines, generation plants, and distribution points.
(e) Secondary stocks are held by users. It includes an estimate of stocks held at utility plants sold to nonutility generators.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
10.61
10.90
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.19
10.48
Industrial Sector .........................
0.40
0.40
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.05
0.05
Total Supply ..................................
10.66
10.94
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.54
0.91
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
9.73
9.64
Residential Sector ......................
3.67
3.32
Commercial Sector .....................
3.32
3.50
Industrial Sector .........................
2.73
2.80
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.40
0.39
Total Consumption .......................
10.13
10.03
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
1.69
1.70
Natural Gas ...............................
7.96
6.74
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
7.97
7.70
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
12.62
14.57
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
9.7
10.6
Commercial Sector .....................
9.0
9.4
Industrial Sector .........................
5.9
6.1
2007
3rd
4th
1st
12.49
12.04
0.42
0.02
0.07
12.55
0.74
10.52
10.10
0.40
0.02
0.04
10.56
0.72
11.09
10.67
0.40
0.02
0.07
11.16
0.70
11.39
4.49
3.99
2.89
0.02
0.42
11.81
9.44
3.33
3.42
2.67
0.02
0.40
9.84
1.70
6.72
8.16
13.23
10.9
10.0
6.5
2nd
2008
2006
Year
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2008
10.96
10.55
0.39
0.02
0.11
11.07
0.94
12.70
12.28
0.39
0.02
0.09
12.79
0.88
10.77
10.38
0.38
0.02
0.03
10.80
0.66
10.99
10.57
0.40
0.02
0.06
11.04
0.58
11.01
10.60
0.39
0.02
0.05
11.05
0.90
12.68
12.23
0.43
0.02
0.10
12.77
0.79
10.89
10.47
0.40
0.02
0.03
10.92
0.75
11.13
10.70
0.41
0.02
0.05
11.18
0.73
11.38
10.97
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.46
0.80
11.39
10.97
0.41
0.02
0.06
11.45
0.76
10.06
3.92
3.47
2.65
0.02
0.39
10.45
9.74
3.34
3.61
2.77
0.02
0.39
10.12
11.52
4.55
4.09
2.86
0.02
0.39
11.91
9.77
3.50
3.55
2.70
0.02
0.37
10.14
10.08
3.91
3.48
2.66
0.02
0.38
10.46
9.78
3.37
3.63
2.76
0.02
0.37
10.16
11.57
4.56
4.15
2.84
0.02
0.41
11.98
9.78
3.49
3.59
2.68
0.02
0.39
10.17
10.05
3.70
3.56
2.77
0.02
0.40
10.46
10.28
3.83
3.68
2.75
0.02
0.38
10.66
10.30
3.83
3.72
2.73
0.02
0.39
10.69
1.69
6.63
7.16
12.43
1.76
7.35
7.18
12.44
1.78
7.62
8.36
14.48
1.77
6.62
8.75
15.33
1.75
7.29
11.29
17.47
1.80
7.85
11.28
17.53
1.81
7.21
10.85
17.42
1.79
7.36
10.32
16.62
1.76
8.02
10.05
16.21
1.69
6.92
7.80
13.21
1.76
7.14
8.65
14.95
1.79
7.56
10.61
16.94
10.2
9.3
6.1
10.0
9.3
6.1
10.9
9.7
6.3
11.0
10.0
6.7
10.5
9.4
6.3
10.1
9.3
6.2
11.0
9.7
6.4
11.3
10.2
6.8
10.7
9.7
6.4
10.4
9.5
6.2
10.6
9.6
6.4
10.8
9.8
6.5
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
136
369
532
277
907
325
454
225
425
15
3,665
115
302
438
241
838
279
512
232
350
14
3,321
140
416
594
329
1,148
402
716
314
422
14
4,494
119
323
478
248
830
279
439
220
373
15
3,326
142
389
564
300
966
348
505
243
442
16
3,916
115
330
467
245
843
286
462
234
346
14
3,341
140
416
615
344
1,172
417
683
336
412
14
4,548
127
346
499
258
899
291
463
229
376
15
3,503
141
389
569
291
995
346
478
247
441
16
3,913
115
318
456
241
857
279
495
237
359
14
3,371
143
430
620
336
1,161
398
714
331
411
14
4,559
127
342
496
256
881
286
455
238
392
15
3,488
127
353
511
274
931
321
531
248
392
15
3,703
131
370
536
287
970
336
529
260
394
15
3,828
131
370
535
281
974
327
536
264
401
15
3,834
150
430
482
246
738
207
389
226
434
17
3,320
142
425
490
257
810
225
452
251
435
17
3,503
161
487
550
292
926
265
520
277
498
17
3,994
141
422
480
252
784
213
422
240
450
18
3,421
151
454
503
256
778
215
421
236
442
18
3,472
150
443
513
261
829
231
453
256
454
17
3,606
165
499
565
300
944
272
526
293
505
17
4,086
146
442
499
254
817
227
454
241
452
18
3,550
155
458
504
249
798
216
414
232
440
17
3,484
149
446
508
255
852
230
468
253
449
17
3,628
169
514
569
292
972
271
558
285
504
18
4,153
150
447
502
255
830
224
461
245
462
18
3,593
148
441
500
262
815
228
446
249
455
17
3,561
153
460
520
268
842
236
464
257
463
17
3,680
156
466
521
263
863
235
476
254
464
18
3,715
61
201
579
228
419
355
437
193
240
14
2,726
64
204
576
233
442
356
461
213
235
14
2,797
66
214
590
242
446
360
476
225
254
15
2,886
64
195
553
228
418
353
435
198
214
14
2,673
61
195
578
225
416
351
407
192
210
14
2,650
64
202
595
235
438
354
428
217
224
14
2,770
66
209
604
247
441
361
449
230
241
15
2,863
63
198
562
236
422
356
434
203
209
15
2,698
62
197
578
229
401
353
409
200
215
14
2,658
63
202
600
239
426
358
420
218
222
14
2,762
66
208
604
252
440
351
431
232
237
15
2,836
62
196
578
237
414
355
401
207
213
14
2,677
64
203
575
233
431
356
452
207
236
14
2,771
64
201
585
236
429
355
430
210
221
14
2,746
63
201
590
239
420
354
415
214
222
14
2,734
348
1,012
1,595
751
2,068
887
1,281
644
1,101
46
9,732
322
941
1,505
730
2,093
861
1,425
695
1,023
44
9,640
368
1,128
1,736
863
2,522
1,027
1,712
816
1,177
46
11,395
326
951
1,513
729
2,035
844
1,297
659
1,040
47
9,440
356
1,051
1,648
782
2,164
914
1,333
671
1,096
47
10,061
330
986
1,576
740
2,114
871
1,343
706
1,026
45
9,738
373
1,135
1,785
891
2,560
1,051
1,659
859
1,160
46
11,519
339
998
1,561
748
2,140
873
1,352
673
1,039
48
9,772
359
1,055
1,654
770
2,198
916
1,301
679
1,098
47
10,077
328
977
1,565
736
2,139
867
1,383
708
1,033
46
9,781
380
1,164
1,795
880
2,576
1,020
1,703
849
1,155
47
11,570
341
995
1,577
748
2,128
865
1,318
690
1,069
48
9,779
341
1,008
1,587
768
2,180
905
1,429
704
1,085
46
10,055
349
1,042
1,643
790
2,245
927
1,422
728
1,080
47
10,275
352
1,048
1,648
784
2,261
917
1,427
732
1,089
47
10,304
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
15.9
12.5
8.5
7.4
9.1
7.7
10.9
8.4
10.5
9.7
16.0
13.4
9.5
8.4
9.9
8.5
11.7
9.2
11.7
10.6
16.1
14.3
9.6
8.8
10.2
8.4
11.9
9.4
13.1
10.9
16.0
13.0
8.9
7.7
9.7
7.9
11.2
8.6
11.2
10.2
16.7
12.9
9.1
7.4
9.3
7.8
10.8
8.5
11.1
10.0
16.7
14.3
10.1
8.6
10.1
8.5
11.5
9.5
11.8
10.8
16.3
14.9
10.1
8.9
10.4
8.4
11.4
9.8
13.0
11.0
16.2
13.7
9.5
7.8
10.0
8.1
11.3
8.9
11.9
10.5
16.5
13.2
9.2
7.5
9.6
7.8
10.5
8.6
11.4
10.1
17.0
14.3
10.2
8.7
10.3
8.6
11.7
9.6
12.2
11.0
17.1
15.2
10.3
9.1
10.5
8.5
12.1
9.8
13.0
11.3
17.1
14.1
9.6
7.9
10.1
8.4
11.3
9.1
11.8
10.7
16.0
13.4
9.1
8.1
9.8
8.2
11.5
9.0
11.6
10.4
16.5
14.0
9.7
8.2
10.0
8.2
11.2
9.2
11.9
10.6
16.9
14.2
9.8
8.3
10.1
8.3
11.5
9.3
12.1
10.8
14.6
11.8
7.8
6.2
8.1
7.7
9.3
7.4
9.8
9.0
14.5
12.5
8.3
6.8
8.4
8.1
9.1
7.7
11.3
9.4
14.9
13.9
8.4
7.2
8.6
8.1
9.5
7.8
12.7
10.0
14.1
12.3
8.1
6.2
8.6
7.7
9.0
7.5
10.8
9.3
14.9
12.3
8.3
6.2
8.5
7.8
9.2
7.4
10.1
9.3
14.5
13.1
8.8
6.9
8.6
8.1
9.4
7.8
11.1
9.7
14.9
14.1
8.8
7.3
8.8
8.0
9.5
7.9
12.5
10.0
14.2
12.7
8.3
6.3
8.7
8.0
9.2
7.6
10.7
9.4
14.5
12.2
8.2
6.2
8.5
8.0
9.2
7.4
10.5
9.3
14.9
13.0
8.7
7.0
8.7
8.2
9.4
7.8
11.5
9.7
15.8
14.3
8.8
7.4
8.9
8.1
9.8
7.9
12.7
10.2
15.1
12.9
8.5
6.4
8.8
8.2
9.4
7.8
11.1
9.7
14.5
12.7
8.2
6.6
8.5
7.9
9.3
7.6
11.2
9.5
14.6
13.1
8.5
6.7
8.7
8.0
9.3
7.7
11.1
9.6
15.1
13.1
8.5
6.8
8.7
8.1
9.5
7.7
11.5
9.8
11.5
7.5
5.1
4.6
5.2
4.3
7.3
5.3
7.0
5.9
11.5
7.6
5.4
5.0
5.3
4.9
7.1
5.5
7.8
6.1
11.7
8.2
5.6
5.5
5.8
5.3
7.3
5.9
8.6
6.5
11.6
7.7
5.3
4.7
5.4
4.6
7.0
5.4
8.0
6.1
12.7
7.8
5.8
4.8
5.3
4.8
7.0
5.4
7.4
6.1
12.2
8.1
5.7
5.2
5.5
5.2
7.1
5.6
7.7
6.3
12.4
8.4
6.0
5.5
6.0
5.4
7.1
6.2
8.5
6.7
12.6
8.0
5.8
4.8
5.6
4.9
7.1
5.6
7.9
6.3
12.8
8.0
5.7
4.9
5.5
4.8
7.0
5.4
7.2
6.2
12.8
8.1
5.8
5.3
5.6
5.2
7.2
5.7
7.6
6.4
13.2
8.5
6.1
5.7
6.2
5.7
7.6
6.2
8.4
6.8
13.1
8.1
5.8
4.9
5.7
5.0
7.4
5.6
7.7
6.4
11.6
7.8
5.4
4.9
5.5
4.8
7.2
5.5
7.9
6.2
12.5
8.1
5.8
5.1
5.6
5.1
7.1
5.7
7.9
6.4
13.0
8.2
5.9
5.2
5.7
5.2
7.3
5.7
7.7
6.5
14.5
11.2
7.1
6.1
8.0
6.3
9.2
7.1
9.4
8.4
14.4
11.7
7.5
6.7
8.4
6.9
9.4
7.5
10.6
8.9
14.8
13.0
7.9
7.3
8.8
7.3
9.9
7.9
12.0
9.5
14.3
11.6
7.3
6.3
8.4
6.5
9.1
7.2
10.3
8.7
15.3
11.7
7.7
6.2
8.3
6.6
9.2
7.2
10.0
8.7
14.8
12.5
8.0
6.9
8.5
7.0
9.4
7.7
10.6
9.1
15.0
13.3
8.3
7.4
9.1
7.2
9.6
8.2
11.8
9.6
14.6
12.1
7.8
6.3
8.6
6.8
9.2
7.4
10.6
9.0
14.9
11.8
7.7
6.3
8.4
6.7
9.0
7.2
10.2
8.8
15.2
12.4
8.0
7.0
8.7
7.1
9.6
7.8
10.9
9.2
15.8
13.5
8.4
7.5
9.1
7.4
10.2
8.2
11.9
9.8
15.4
12.3
7.9
6.4
8.7
7.0
9.4
7.6
10.7
9.1
14.5
11.9
7.5
6.6
8.4
6.8
9.4
7.5
10.6
8.9
14.9
12.4
7.9
6.8
8.6
6.9
9.4
7.7
10.8
9.1
15.4
12.5
8.0
6.8
8.8
7.1
9.6
7.7
10.9
9.3
- = no data available
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables (d) ............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................
2007
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
5.463
1.773
0.011
0.146
0.088
0.021
0.029
0.007
2.204
-0.017
0.019
5.058
2.155
0.010
0.143
0.090
0.020
0.029
0.005
2.157
-0.016
0.019
5.782
3.073
0.011
0.192
0.134
0.023
0.029
0.006
2.295
-0.018
0.020
5.439
1.909
0.010
0.127
0.080
0.022
0.020
0.005
2.129
-0.017
0.019
5.397
2.012
0.011
0.164
0.093
0.019
0.049
0.003
2.157
-0.018
0.020
5.495
2.198
0.011
0.175
0.108
0.024
0.038
0.004
2.196
-0.018
0.020
5.436
2.229
0.011
0.152
0.098
0.022
0.027
0.006
2.196
-0.017
0.019
0.628
0.035
0.001
0.094
0.028
0.040
10.377
0.750
0.037
0.001
0.111
0.029
0.043
10.569
0.844
0.036
0.003
0.119
0.026
0.042
10.596
0.672
0.040
0.003
0.089
0.028
0.043
12.229
0.640
0.036
0.001
0.105
0.028
0.043
10.467
0.781
0.040
0.001
0.073
0.028
0.038
10.704
0.697
0.039
0.002
0.087
0.028
0.040
10.971
0.726
0.037
0.002
0.106
0.028
0.043
10.967
0.004
0.013
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023
0.003
0.009
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.018
0.003
0.009
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.018
0.003
0.010
0.000
0.002
0.003
0.018
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.010
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.019
0.004
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.023
0.003
0.011
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.010
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.019
0.047
0.194
0.034
0.012
0.017
0.048
0.201
0.032
0.010
0.017
0.050
0.176
0.028
0.010
0.016
0.048
0.203
0.033
0.013
0.016
0.048
0.196
0.034
0.012
0.017
0.055
0.228
0.035
0.012
0.018
0.053
0.188
0.030
0.011
0.017
0.054
0.203
0.033
0.011
0.017
0.048
0.193
0.032
0.011
0.016
0.051
0.204
0.033
0.012
0.017
0.007
0.076
0.002
0.388
10.958
0.006
0.079
0.002
0.395
12.699
0.009
0.073
0.002
0.378
10.772
0.009
0.076
0.002
0.401
10.988
0.007
0.077
0.002
0.392
11.006
0.007
0.085
0.002
0.426
12.677
0.010
0.078
0.002
0.404
10.890
0.008
0.078
0.002
0.406
11.133
0.008
0.076
0.002
0.389
11.382
0.008
0.079
0.002
0.406
11.393
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5.379
1.407
0.011
0.154
0.081
0.017
0.053
0.003
2.203
-0.016
0.020
5.087
2.010
0.011
0.153
0.081
0.020
0.049
0.003
2.074
-0.016
0.020
5.798
2.884
0.011
0.206
0.130
0.021
0.053
0.003
2.292
-0.021
0.020
5.319
1.734
0.010
0.143
0.081
0.017
0.043
0.002
2.059
-0.019
0.019
5.498
1.722
0.011
0.212
0.136
0.029
0.040
0.006
2.262
-0.016
0.019
5.206
2.084
0.010
0.160
0.098
0.018
0.040
0.004
2.093
-0.016
0.020
5.883
3.108
0.011
0.185
0.116
0.024
0.040
0.005
2.293
-0.020
0.020
5.392
1.867
0.010
0.142
0.083
0.024
0.032
0.003
2.138
-0.019
0.020
0.848
0.040
0.001
0.074
0.030
0.039
10.189
0.961
0.038
0.002
0.077
0.025
0.037
10.479
0.676
0.041
0.002
0.060
0.030
0.039
12.038
0.643
0.041
0.001
0.081
0.028
0.038
10.097
0.759
0.041
0.001
0.090
0.030
0.041
10.668
0.790
0.039
0.002
0.093
0.026
0.039
10.547
0.614
0.041
0.003
0.073
0.030
0.041
12.281
0.004
0.011
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.023
0.004
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.023
0.004
0.012
0.001
0.002
0.004
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.023
0.054
0.196
0.034
0.012
0.016
0.055
0.197
0.034
0.010
0.017
0.056
0.217
0.034
0.012
0.016
0.052
0.203
0.031
0.011
0.017
0.048
0.201
0.032
0.013
0.016
0.009
0.078
0.002
0.401
10.613
0.006
0.075
0.002
0.396
10.897
0.007
0.080
0.002
0.424
12.486
0.010
0.077
0.002
0.404
10.524
0.009
0.075
0.002
0.395
11.087
1st
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
2nd
2008
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
2.78
11.54
0.28
0.14
0.03
0.10
0.01
2.64
16.80
0.27
0.14
0.03
0.10
0.00
3.04
24.13
0.37
0.22
0.04
0.10
0.01
2.78
14.23
0.26
0.14
0.03
0.09
0.00
2.86
13.97
0.37
0.23
0.06
0.08
0.01
2.71
17.20
0.29
0.16
0.04
0.08
0.01
3.09
26.09
0.33
0.20
0.05
0.08
0.01
2.82
15.17
0.25
0.13
0.05
0.06
0.01
2.85
14.20
0.27
0.15
0.04
0.06
0.01
2.64
17.77
0.26
0.15
0.04
0.06
0.01
3.02
25.65
0.34
0.22
0.05
0.06
0.01
2.85
15.46
0.22
0.13
0.04
0.04
0.01
2.81
16.70
0.29
0.16
0.03
0.10
0.01
2.87
18.13
0.31
0.18
0.05
0.07
0.01
2.84
18.28
0.27
0.16
0.04
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.03
1.89
0.02
0.03
1.93
0.02
0.03
2.12
0.02
0.02
1.99
0.02
0.02
1.97
0.02
0.02
1.90
0.02
0.02
1.97
0.02
0.02
1.74
0.02
0.02
2.01
0.03
0.02
1.93
0.02
0.02
2.25
0.03
0.03
1.86
0.02
0.03
1.98
0.02
0.02
1.90
0.02
0.02
2.01
0.03
2.81
13.55
0.30
2.67
18.86
0.29
3.06
26.40
0.39
2.80
16.36
0.28
2.88
16.07
0.40
2.73
19.24
0.31
3.11
28.19
0.35
2.85
17.01
0.27
2.87
16.31
0.30
2.66
19.81
0.28
3.05
28.04
0.36
2.88
17.42
0.25
2.84
18.82
0.32
2.89
20.15
0.33
2.87
20.41
0.30
End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector
Coal (mmst) ..............................
112.1
135.7
126.9
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
31.9
31.5
29.5
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
18.3
18.2
18.0
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
3.5
3.3
3.2
141.0
28.8
18.0
3.4
143.0
23.1
16.9
3.2
156.4
26.2
16.9
2.8
143.9
24.9
17.3
3.0
146.0
25.3
17.8
13.3
149.5
23.9
17.6
6.4
154.9
26.4
17.8
6.8
138.1
24.7
17.7
7.2
141.9
27.9
18.1
7.8
141.0
28.8
18.0
3.4
146.0
25.3
17.8
13.3
141.9
27.9
18.1
7.8
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Wind .............................................
Wood ............................................
Biofuels and Biomass ...................
Other Renewables .......................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Wind ..........................................
Wood .........................................
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Geothermal ..............................
Wood ..........................................
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Biofuels and Biomass (b) ...........
Total Consumption ........................
2nd
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
0.722
0.087
0.018
0.065
0.529
0.095
0.101
1.735
0.722
0.087
0.018
0.065
0.529
0.097
0.101
1.859
0.722
0.087
0.018
0.065
0.529
0.107
0.101
1.641
0.722
0.087
0.018
0.065
0.529
0.114
0.101
1.656
0.691
0.086
0.016
0.081
0.561
0.121
0.158
1.715
0.725
0.083
0.017
0.084
0.559
0.130
0.148
1.747
0.570
0.087
0.018
0.067
0.567
0.141
0.163
1.612
0.585
0.076
0.016
0.086
0.526
0.147
0.137
1.574
0.691
0.078
0.016
0.101
0.545
0.164
0.137
1.732
0.774
0.076
0.018
0.108
0.548
0.177
0.127
1.828
0.624
0.085
0.018
0.082
0.597
0.182
0.153
1.741
0.598
0.077
0.016
0.097
0.552
0.185
0.146
1.671
2.889
0.349
0.070
0.258
2.114
0.412
0.404
6.891
2.571
0.333
0.067
0.319
2.213
0.539
0.606
6.648
2.686
0.317
0.068
0.388
2.242
0.709
0.562
6.971
0.763
0.078
0.001
0.067
0.048
0.057
0.990
0.875
0.078
0.002
0.070
0.040
0.056
1.124
0.622
0.078
0.002
0.055
0.048
0.059
0.875
0.592
0.078
0.001
0.075
0.046
0.059
0.823
0.683
0.078
0.001
0.081
0.048
0.061
0.952
0.718
0.075
0.002
0.084
0.044
0.059
0.984
0.565
0.079
0.002
0.067
0.047
0.062
0.823
0.577
0.068
0.001
0.086
0.044
0.061
0.837
0.682
0.070
0.001
0.101
0.046
0.064
0.964
0.768
0.068
0.002
0.108
0.041
0.061
1.050
0.618
0.077
0.002
0.082
0.045
0.064
0.888
0.589
0.069
0.001
0.097
0.044
0.064
0.863
2.852
0.312
0.005
0.266
0.182
0.231
3.812
2.544
0.301
0.006
0.319
0.183
0.244
3.596
2.657
0.284
0.006
0.388
0.176
0.254
3.764
0.008
0.001
0.367
0.034
0.392
0.008
0.001
0.367
0.034
0.392
0.008
0.001
0.367
0.034
0.392
0.008
0.001
0.367
0.034
0.392
0.008
0.001
0.393
0.090
0.588
0.006
0.001
0.396
0.083
0.581
0.005
0.001
0.400
0.094
0.596
0.008
0.001
0.366
0.071
0.447
0.008
0.001
0.380
0.068
0.458
0.006
0.001
0.387
0.060
0.454
0.006
0.001
0.432
0.082
0.521
0.009
0.001
0.391
0.076
0.477
0.030
0.004
1.469
0.136
1.568
0.027
0.004
1.555
0.338
2.212
0.029
0.004
1.590
0.287
1.910
0.000
0.004
0.016
0.001
0.032
0.000
0.004
0.016
0.001
0.032
0.000
0.004
0.016
0.001
0.032
0.000
0.004
0.016
0.001
0.032
0.000
0.003
0.019
0.001
0.029
0.000
0.003
0.019
0.001
0.029
0.000
0.003
0.019
0.001
0.029
0.000
0.003
0.015
0.001
0.023
0.000
0.003
0.018
0.001
0.026
0.000
0.003
0.019
0.001
0.027
0.000
0.003
0.020
0.001
0.030
0.000
0.003
0.016
0.001
0.025
0.001
0.014
0.065
0.005
0.130
0.001
0.013
0.073
0.005
0.111
0.001
0.013
0.073
0.005
0.108
0.005
0.098
0.016
0.119
0.005
0.098
0.016
0.119
0.005
0.098
0.016
0.119
0.005
0.098
0.016
0.119
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.004
0.101
0.015
0.120
0.018
0.390
0.065
0.474
0.015
0.403
0.061
0.479
0.016
0.403
0.061
0.480
0.090
0.115
0.124
0.134
0.132
0.137
0.148
0.158
0.171
0.186
0.191
0.196
0.462
0.574
0.744
1.734
1.876
1.641
1.667
1.827
1.855
1.676
1.585
1.739
1.837
1.749
1.682
6.919
6.942
7.007
- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol supply includes production but excludes imports, exports, and stock change. Fuel ethanol consumption in transportation sector represents total fuel ethanol blended into motor
gasoline.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Energy Indicators
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
2007
2008
2006
Year
2007
2008
11,869
11,319
11,558
11,764
8,964
9,038
8,397
8,687
8,932
1,720
1,718
1,727
1,875
1,816
1,729
-4.14
-3.63
-0.20
1.25
5.84
-3.03
-1.68
122.9
123.1
123.2
123.3
123.5
121.9
122.9
123.5
138.2
138.5
138.7
138.9
139.2
139.6
136.2
138.0
139.1
91.4
91.7
92.1
92.3
92.7
93.1
93.6
89.9
91.6
92.9
112.2
114.9
110.8
97.1
113.2
116.1
112.3
96.7
114.3
117.3
112.8
96.3
114.1
117.2
113.3
95.9
114.2
117.3
113.7
95.8
114.4
117.6
114.0
95.8
114.8
118.1
114.5
96.1
115.3
118.8
115.0
96.3
111.2
114.0
107.7
98.5
113.4
116.4
112.3
96.5
114.7
118.0
114.3
96.0
109.8
109.3
109.7
105.3
102.3
109.9
107.5
110.1
111.6
108.2
107.8
107.5
108.1
108.7
110.6
109.6
109.4
111.3
110.6
106.0
109.6
112.4
109.6
111.3
112.6
109.3
108.6
110.4
112.5
109.9
109.8
112.8
110.7
110.1
110.8
112.7
109.7
106.9
112.7
111.9
111.7
110.9
112.8
109.5
104.9
112.2
112.3
113.6
111.0
113.1
109.8
103.7
112.7
112.5
113.7
111.2
113.4
110.4
103.3
112.7
112.7
115.2
111.4
110.3
110.3
112.7
112.1
107.5
116.6
110.0
111.4
110.2
109.7
111.1
109.5
108.2
109.9
113.0
109.8
104.7
112.6
112.4
113.6
111.1
2.03
2.02
2.04
2.07
2.08
2.11
2.12
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.02
2.07
2.13
1.65
1.67
1.64
1.67
1.73
1.74
1.77
1.78
1.77
1.78
1.77
1.65
1.73
1.78
1.77
2.14
2.08
1.73
1.76
2.22
2.26
2.50
2.48
2.62
2.45
2.26
1.93
2.19
2.45
115.4
116.4
117.0
117.5
118.8
119.5
119.8
120.2
121.0
121.4
121.9
122.4
116.6
119.6
121.7
7,841
8,497
8,386
8,110
7,777
8,497
8,447
8,176
7,895
8,542
8,462
8,117
8,209
8,226
8,254
528
549
558
548
545
560
565
558
551
568
577
569
546
557
566
313
341
341
328
321
346
351
338
330
353
358
345
331
339
346
239.3
252.7
258.0
239.1
242.0
251.8
255.9
251.4
255.4
272.6
278.0
259.0
247.3
250.3
266.3
0.297
0.297
0.295
0.266
0.279
0.295
0.299
0.294
0.292
0.292
0.292
0.280
0.289
0.292
0.289
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
(billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) .......
11,239
11,307
11,337
11,396
11,413
11,520
11,631
11,669
Real Disposable Personal Income
(billion chained 2000 Dollars - SAAR) .......
8,344
8,349
8,385
8,511
8,624
8,636
8,729
1,901
1,892
1,870
1,836
1,815
1,829
3.84
12.41
8.91
-1.79
-4.98
120.9
121.3
121.6
121.9
135.4
135.9
136.4
89.3
89.6
Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2002=100)
Total Industrial Production ............................
109.5
Manufacturing ................................................
112.3
Food .............................................................
106.6
Paper ............................................................
98.6
Chemicals .....................................................
Petroleum ......................................................
Stone, Clay, Glass ........................................
Primary Metals ..............................................
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
1st
2nd
3rd
11,682
11,719
11,787
8,760
8,822
8,903
1,823
1,796
1,750
-4.18
-2.00
-0.96
122.2
122.5
122.7
137.0
137.4
137.9
90.0
90.5
91.0
111.2
113.9
107.0
98.1
112.3
115.2
107.5
98.7
111.9
114.6
109.7
98.6
109.0
110.0
114.5
112.5
108.3
115.6
109.9
110.4
108.8
113.9
116.4
109.9
120.0
111.0
112.0
113.3
112.4
114.3
109.5
121.1
111.8
1.99
2.02
1.63
4th
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
Real Fixed Investment
(billion chained 2000 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2000 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2000=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................
- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2000)
New England ...............
621
623
624
626
Middle Atlantic .............
1,706
1,714
1,717
1,724
E. N. Central ...............
1,644
1,646
1,644
1,645
W. N. Central ..............
716
719
720
722
S. Atlantic ....................
2,070
2,084
2,091
2,102
E. S. Central ................
534
536
537
539
W. S. Central ..............
1,173
1,183
1,188
1,196
Mountain .....................
724
732
738
746
Pacific .........................
1,956
1,972
1,983
1,998
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 1997=100)
New England ...............
106.9
108.1
109.2
108.2
Middle Atlantic .............
106.5
107.8
108.9
107.9
E. N. Central ...............
110.7
111.9
112.7
111.8
W. N. Central ..............
118.2
120.2
122.3
121.6
S. Atlantic ....................
110.3
111.6
112.4
111.3
E. S. Central ................
115.7
116.9
117.5
116.6
W. S. Central ..............
115.5
118.1
120.5
120.2
Mountain .....................
121.6
124.0
126.1
125.9
Pacific .........................
113.4
114.8
116.6
116.7
Real Personal Income (Billion $2000)
New England ...............
546
545
545
556
Middle Atlantic .............
1,461
1,464
1,462
1,491
E. N. Central ...............
1,400
1,402
1,402
1,421
W. N. Central ..............
603
605
604
616
S. Atlantic ....................
1,754
1,755
1,767
1,793
E. S. Central ................
467
470
471
480
W. S. Central ..............
977
982
990
1,013
Mountain .....................
604
604
612
623
Pacific .........................
1,611
1,608
1,622
1,650
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,475
5,477
5,481
5,485
Middle Atlantic .............
15,134
15,139
15,147
15,156
E. N. Central ...............
17,811
17,829
17,848
17,868
W. N. Central ..............
7,908
7,925
7,938
7,949
S. Atlantic ....................
21,955
22,033
22,114
22,196
E. S. Central ................
6,940
6,956
6,969
6,980
W. S. Central ..............
12,202
12,245
12,285
12,327
Mountain .....................
7,692
7,739
7,785
7,830
Pacific .........................
16,770
16,814
16,858
16,902
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
Middle Atlantic .............
18.4
18.4
18.5
18.5
E. N. Central ...............
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.6
W. N. Central ..............
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
S. Atlantic ....................
26.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
E. S. Central ................
7.7
7.7
7.8
7.8
W. S. Central ..............
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
Mountain .....................
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.7
Pacific .........................
20.4
20.5
20.6
20.7
2007
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2006
Year
2007
2008
626
1,725
1,642
724
2,108
539
1,200
750
2,001
632
1,740
1,655
730
2,128
544
1,213
759
2,021
638
1,755
1,669
736
2,149
549
1,229
766
2,039
639
1,759
1,673
738
2,158
551
1,236
770
2,047
639
1,759
1,673
738
2,162
551
1,239
772
2,049
641
1,762
1,675
740
2,171
553
1,246
775
2,056
644
1,771
1,683
744
2,185
556
1,255
780
2,068
648
1,782
1,692
748
2,203
559
1,265
787
2,083
623
1,715
1,645
719
2,087
536
1,185
735
1,977
634
1,745
1,660
732
2,136
546
1,220
761
2,027
643
1,769
1,681
743
2,180
555
1,251
779
2,064
108.7
108.0
111.5
122.2
111.6
117.1
120.3
127.7
117.1
110.1
108.7
112.7
123.8
112.7
118.1
121.9
129.5
118.3
111.3
109.8
113.9
125.1
113.6
119.2
123.4
131.1
119.7
111.1
109.5
113.7
125.0
113.1
118.7
123.4
131.0
119.8
111.3
109.4
113.7
125.3
113.1
118.8
123.8
131.4
120.2
111.5
109.5
113.8
125.7
113.1
118.8
124.1
131.9
120.7
111.9
109.8
114.3
126.4
113.4
119.3
124.8
132.7
121.4
112.4
110.3
115.0
127.3
113.9
120.0
125.4
133.6
122.1
108.1
107.8
111.8
120.6
111.4
116.7
118.6
124.4
115.4
110.3
109.0
113.0
124.0
112.8
118.3
122.2
129.8
118.7
111.8
109.8
114.2
126.2
113.4
119.2
124.5
132.4
121.1
565
1,533
1,440
622
1,818
485
1,024
631
1,671
567
1,528
1,441
624
1,826
487
1,032
635
1,675
573
1,542
1,454
630
1,846
491
1,045
642
1,691
575
1,546
1,458
631
1,855
492
1,051
646
1,697
578
1,555
1,468
635
1,870
496
1,061
651
1,708
582
1,566
1,477
639
1,887
498
1,070
657
1,721
585
1,575
1,484
642
1,901
501
1,077
662
1,732
589
1,587
1,494
647
1,919
504
1,087
669
1,745
548
1,470
1,406
607
1,767
472
991
611
1,623
570
1,537
1,448
627
1,836
489
1,038
639
1,683
584
1,571
1,481
641
1,894
500
1,074
660
1,727
5,488
15,165
17,888
7,959
22,282
6,993
12,367
7,877
16,945
5,493
15,175
17,908
7,969
22,367
7,004
12,405
7,923
16,987
5,498
15,185
17,929
7,980
22,452
7,016
12,440
7,970
17,030
5,502
15,191
17,945
7,988
22,533
7,026
12,470
8,014
17,068
5,509
15,207
17,972
8,001
22,625
7,040
12,506
8,060
17,117
5,517
15,224
18,001
8,015
22,721
7,055
12,544
8,108
17,166
5,524
15,239
18,029
8,029
22,814
7,069
12,580
8,153
17,215
5,531
15,256
18,057
8,044
22,909
7,084
12,618
8,200
17,264
5,485
15,156
17,868
7,949
22,196
6,980
12,327
7,830
16,902
5,502
15,191
17,945
7,988
22,533
7,026
12,470
8,014
17,068
5,531
15,256
18,057
8,044
22,909
7,084
12,618
8,200
17,264
7.0
18.6
21.6
10.2
26.5
7.8
14.9
9.8
20.8
7.0
18.6
21.6
10.2
26.6
7.8
15.0
9.8
20.9
7.1
18.6
21.6
10.2
26.7
7.9
15.0
9.9
20.9
7.1
18.6
21.7
10.3
26.8
7.9
15.1
9.9
21.0
7.1
18.6
21.7
10.3
26.8
7.9
15.1
10.0
21.0
7.1
18.7
21.7
10.3
26.9
7.9
15.2
10.0
21.0
7.1
18.7
21.7
10.3
27.0
7.9
15.2
10.0
21.1
7.1
18.7
21.7
10.3
27.1
7.9
15.3
10.1
21.1
7.0
18.5
21.6
10.1
26.2
7.8
14.7
9.6
20.6
7.0
18.6
21.6
10.2
26.6
7.9
15.0
9.9
20.9
7.1
18.7
21.7
10.3
26.9
7.9
15.2
10.0
21.0
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - December 2007
2006
1st
2nd
Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
810
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,621
616
E. N. Central .................
2,812
639
W. N. Central ................
2,872
499
South Atlantic ...............
1,392
179
E. S. Central .................
1,711
180
W. S. Central ................
1,031
31
Mountain .......................
2,204
532
Pacific ...........................
1,462
493
U.S. Average ............
2,018
423
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
91
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
157
E. N. Central .................
1
175
W. N. Central ................
5
312
South Atlantic ...............
100
596
E. S. Central .................
35
508
W. S. Central ................
117
963
Mountain .......................
12
547
Pacific ...........................
2
236
U.S. Average ............
36
398
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353
2007
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2008
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Year
3rd
4th
2006
2007
2008
161
113
154
176
28
40
9
181
79
94
1,891
1,701
2,107
2,252
937
1,308
792
1,861
1,081
1,461
3,283
2,973
3,171
3,215
1,446
1,776
1,270
2,260
1,371
2,196
910
716
721
673
247
292
149
622
501
508
169
74
115
126
14
10
1
98
91
71
2,142
1,869
2,104
2,297
963
1,249
793
1,751
1,075
1,493
3,242
2,970
3,165
3,255
1,461
1,765
1,122
2,259
1,424
2,189
930
749
790
725
237
279
98
702
542
532
177
122
156
183
25
33
9
171
100
97
2,250
2,042
2,268
2,457
1,048
1,357
864
1,937
1,143
1,614
5,810
5,051
5,712
5,799
2,536
3,239
1,863
4,779
3,115
3,996
6,504
5,633
6,111
6,311
2,670
3,327
2,213
4,731
3,038
4,268
6,599
5,883
6,379
6,620
2,771
3,434
2,093
5,069
3,209
4,432
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
438
621
576
759
1,144
1,087
1,505
953
640
863
0
1
0
4
198
40
192
73
38
72
0
0
3
12
126
50
103
32
13
43
83
202
273
320
575
543
728
472
178
377
426
595
615
785
1,235
1,249
1,428
996
634
886
16
43
46
29
272
111
277
77
17
113
0
0
1
3
122
37
99
17
7
40
69
140
198
263
576
469
800
394
158
349
360
521
502
650
1,088
1,003
1,428
853
522
777
0
5
8
12
212
63
181
68
42
79
528
779
753
1,080
2,038
1,671
2,777
1,586
916
1,369
525
840
936
1,146
2,209
1,953
2,536
1,577
841
1,419
429
666
709
928
1,998
1,572
2,508
1,332
729
1,245
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceaenic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
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