e as ty re

e as ty re
Power
interruPtions
currently cost
eu businesses
€150bn
a year
Global electricity
demand will increase
115% by 2050
by then
the euroPean
renewable
enerGy
sector
will emPloy
6 million
PeoPle
THE FUTURE
OF ENERGY
An
independent
report for
Oracle Utilities
14–10–2011
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p10
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9
10
Overview
2050: vision of a low carbon economy
Energy efficiency
Data intelligence
Generation and storage
Low carbon transport
Country snapshots
Key take-outs
Glossary
Bibliography
This document
As part of our continuing commitment to sustainability, this document is designed to be easily read and shared in a digital format.
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About us
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2
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Introduction
Introduction
Demand for energy continues to rise
unabated. Yet it does so against huge
challenges: the long-term environmental
sustainability of fossil fuels, vulnerabilities
in the energy supply chain and volatility
in energy markets. Left unchecked, these
could have serious social, economic and
environmental impacts worldwide.
An energy revolution to rival the roll-out
of electrification in the 20th Century
is required.
3
The Future of Energy
1
Overview
The scale of the energy challenge means action must be taken now to secure
our future energy needs in a sustainable fashion.The solution lies in the
decarbonisation of our industry and society. To achieve this we need to develop
Smart Grids capable of integrating clean technologies - such as wind and
solar energy - and also be able to efficiently align power supply and demand.
115%
The projected
increase in global
electricity demand
by 2050, created
in part by the
industrialisation
of emerging
economies
4
The Future of Energy
1
Overview
By 2050 the energy landscape will be transformed into a
two-way power infrastructure where embedded intelligence
enables real time coordination and dynamic decision making.
Intermittent renewable energy and storage will be ubiquitous,
consumerisation of smart energy will be part of our daily lives
and clean electricity will power our cars, residences and
economies in a reliable and affordable way.
Data will be as important as energy itself in the power grid of the
future and the successful interpretation of these data will be of
central importance in safeguarding our energy security. Only the
convergence of data, energy, and ICT into active components
in the grid, in the plant and office, in the home and appliances,
in the car and transport will enable the energy transformation.
The smart grid
Putting intelligence into infrastructure
The smart grid brings two-way digital
technology to the energy network, creating
an intelligent system better able to
balance power supply and demand. Full
deployment will result in a more robust
and resilient infrastructure, one that
suffers fewer outages and possesses the
necessary flexibility to accommodate
renewable generation, electric vehicles and
other low carbon technologies. Customers
will also be able to make more informed
decisions about their energy use and its
associated costs. Successful deployment of
the smart grid could save €52bn annually
in the EU alone, both by reducing losses
from electricity distribution and by
enabling greater energy efficiency.
5
The Future of Energy
This report highlights the issues that must be addressed over
the next four decades and the trends that will combine to make
the smart grid and smart energy a reality. It also emphasises
the commercial investment, consumer engagement and political
leadership that will be essential if the carbon emissions targets
of 2050 are to be met. Our study also draws attention to
technological advances such as electric vehicles that will act
as a vital catalyst for change in moving towards this future
of smart energy.
Energy security in a turbulent world
In June 2011, the 28 members of the
International Energy Agency made 60m
barrels of oil available to the market
to counter the impact of the conflict in
Libya. The event served to highlight
the increasing fragility of oil and gas
supplies from politically unstable regions.
Yet energy security is increasingly
concerned by more than combating supply
disruption and price volatility. The rapid
industrialisation of emerging economies
will add to a projected 115% increase in
global electricity demand by 2050. With
the European Union currently importing
half of its energy requirements, a desire
for greater energy independence has joined
environmental concerns as the major drivers
of investment in renewable energy.
Investment in the sector grew globally
by 30% to $211bn in 2010, with China the
single largest investor ($49bn) and the
Middle East & Africa increasing investment
the most rapidly (up 104% in 2010).
Overview — Key Take Outs
1
Overview
1.1Expert
Contributors
Frits Bliek, principal consultant, KEMA
Dr Andreas Breuer, senior vice president, innovation
and new technologies, RWE
Paul Smith, operations manager of the UK’s Energy
Networks Association.
Monika Stajnarova an economist at BEUC, the
European Consumers’ Organisation
Jeff Erikson, senior vice president of thinktank SustainAbility
John Mullins, chief executive, Bord Gáis
Gerard Evenden, design director and senior partner at
Foster + Partners.
Bastian Fischer, vice president, industry strategy,
Oracle Utilities
Steve Heinen, secretariat, International Energy Agency
Miguel Stilwell d’Andrade, board member EDP
Distribuição
Ali Saleh Al-Barrak, Saudi Electricity Company
Jessica Stromback, executive director of the Smart
Energy Demand Coalition (SEDC)
Hans Martens, chief executive, European Policy Centre
Mark Ossel, vice president, Echelon Energy & Utility
Will Pearson, analyst of global energy and natural resources,
Eurasia Group
Simon Power, technical director, Arup
6
The Future of Energy
David Weatherall, housing strategy manager, Energy
Saving Trust
Dr Gerry Wolff, UK coordinator, Desertec
2
2
2050: vision of a low carbon economy
The energy landscape of 2050 is already being defined. Legislators in many territories
have set out the targets that must be achieved on the path to a low carbon economy.
€7
trillion
Estimated cost
of realising an
80% reduction
in greenhouse
gas emissions
through a near
zero-carbon power
supply over the
next 40 years
Source: European
Climate Foundation
7
The Future of Energy
7
2
‘Smart grid
technology can
help achieve
goals without
changing
lifestyles, and
sometimes with
relatively small
investments. It
creates a winwin situation: we
reduce the use
of carbon based
fuel. We reduce
emissions. We
stimulate
growth, jobs and
innovation. And
we save money.’
2050: the vision of a low carbon economy
In 2007 the European Council committed to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions by 20%, to increase the share of renewable
energy by 20% and to make 20% improvements in energy
efficiency by 2020. This 20:20:20 agreement represents an
initial step towards the Low Carbon 2050 Strategy, which calls
for an 80-95% cut of greenhouse gas emissions below 1990
levels by 2050.
The Roadmap 2050 study, initiated by the European Climate
Foundation (ECF), reveals that an 80% reduction can only be
realised with a near zero-carbon power supply. This transition
will cost an estimated €7 trillion over the next forty years with
an annual increase of €270bn in public and private investment.
The Roadmap emphasises that this figure will be significantly
higher if the radical transformation of the energy system is not
started in earnest within the next five years.
Hans Martens,
chief executive,
the European
Policy Centre
8
The Future of Energy
Some national governments and utilities within the EU are
already seizing the initiative. One illustration is the roll-out
of smart metering, a key enabling technology of the smart
grid. In Italy, smart meters have been installed in almost all
households, while penetration rates across Scandinavia are
over 50%. National regulators have demanded full deployment
of smart meters by 2016 in France, 2018 in Spain and 2020
in the UK. In the Netherlands and Germany progress is being
made and roadmaps with defined actions, defined decision
criteria and a preliminary timeline are being developed to
determine the details of a large scale roll-out. According to
Dr Andreas Breuer, senior vice president of innovation and
new technologies at RWE in Germany: ‘Next year a costbenefit analysis will be completed from the perspective of
our politicians and our regulator. They will decide whether
Germany wants to achieve 80% on smart meters by 2020.
I believe that in 2014 we will get the signal for a full roll-out
of smart meters.’
2
77%
2050: the vision of a low carbon economy
In a number of countries, however, predominantly in Eastern
Europe, smart metering has not yet become a political or social
issue. Turkey is one of the fastest growing economies in the
region, with GDP forecast to increase by 4.3% in 2011. Yet
it is the only country in the OECD not to have set a national
emissions target for 2020 and a suggested target of a 7% cut
in emissions remains tentative. Like many rapidly developing
economies, Turkey’s most pressing challenge remains meeting
increasing energy demands, expected to grow by over 6% a
year over the next decade. The country does have an active
strategy to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas. The
government plans for renewable resources to have a 30%
share of the energy market by 2023. At present wind, thermal
and hydroelectric production is growing at 218%, 53% and
13% respectively.
Meanwhile, Russia plans for a 15-25% cut in the 1990 level of
greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and a 50% cut by 2050.
However, there was a 40% fall in emissions between 1990 and
2009 due to Russia’s economic collapse following the breakup
of the Soviet Union. As a result, the planned 2020 ‘cut’
represents a substantial increase in current emissions levels.
The United Nations
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
believes that as
much as 77% of
the world’s energy
demands could be
met by renewable
energy by 2050
Hydropower generates 16% of Russia’s energy needs but other
renewable sources account for just 1% of energy demand –
perhaps unsurprising for a country that is the world’s largest
oil producer. Nevertheless, official energy policy seeks to more
than quadruple this share to 4.5% by 2020. Russia’s Federal
Grid Company (FGC UES) also plans to invest $15bn on energy
storage and smart grid technology by 2012 with the aim to
reduce electricity loss by 25%.
9
The Future of Energy
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) believes that as much as 77% of the world’s
energy demands could be met by renewable energy by 2050.
The panel highlights that almost half of electricity production
capacity installed globally between 2008 and 2009 were
renewable resources. Such investment in energy generation
and in enabling smart grid technologies is essential if the 2050
vision of a low carbon economy is to be realised. The varied
progress to date emphasises the critical importance of political
will, corporate commitment and public engagement to make
this vision a reality.
According to Hans Martens, chief executive of the European
Policy Centre, smart grid technologies are essential: ‘It is one
of the most important measures because it can help achieve
goals without changing lifestyles, and sometimes with relatively
small investments. Using ICT also creates a win-win situation:
we reduce the use of carbon based fuel, we reduce emissions,
we stimulate growth, jobs and innovation and we save money.’
3
Energy efficiency
Encouraging and sustaining greater energy efficiency involves two key areas of activity:
influencing consumer behaviour, and updating an ageing energy infrastructure.
Change coin deposit
lamp by Tima Naskanen,
Finland. The lamp raises
environmental awareness
by forcing users to place
a coin into the base to
turn it on and to remove
the coin to turn it off
10
The Future of Energy
3
33
€150
£7.3
£7.3
billion
Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency
enerGy efficiency for consumers:
enerGyPolicies
efficiency
industry:
consumers:
nudGe
andfor
choice
architecture
anudGe
oncePolicies
in a lifetime
oPPortunity
and choice architecture
Potential savings
Potential
savings
in
UK customers’
in UKbills
customers’
fuel
over
Annual
cost
fuel
bills
over
20
years
from
of years
power
20
fromof
the
roll-out
interruptions
the
roll-out
smart
meters of
which
for European
smart
meters
begins
in 2014which
Union businesses
begins
in 2014
Recent years have seen changes in consumer behaviour
Many aspects
of the
energy
infrastructure
arebehaviour
several
decades
Recent
years have
seen
changes
in consumer
across
advanced
economies
towards
a greater
awareness
of
old.
In
the
UK,
pre-1937
electricity
cut-outs
are
being
replaced
across advanced
economies and
towards
a greater
awareness
environmental
sustainability
a move
towards
leaner, of
by 2013.
‘Wedown
occasionally
encounter
assets
thatmotivated
date
backbyto
environmental
sustainability
and a this
move
leaner,
more
pared
lifestyles.
While
is towards
partly
the
beginning
of
the
last
century,’
says
Paul
Smith,
Operations
more
paredeconomic
down lifestyles.
While
thisrepresents
is partly motivated
the
global
downturn,
it also
a more by
Manager
the
UK’s
Energy
Association.
‘The rollthe
globalof
economic
downturn,
also represents
a more
fundamental
shift
away
from Networks
theit excesses
of hyperout
of
smart
meters
and
smart
grid
technologies
represents
fundamental shift
from
the excesses
of hyperconsumption.
The away
public’s
growing
environmental
concerns a
once
in
a
lifetime
opportunity
to
address
many
legacy
issues.’
consumption.
The public’s
growing
environmental
concerns
have
forced companies
to adopt
clear
sustainability
strategies.
These
include
practices
which
are
labour
intensive,
inefficient
havechallenge
forced companies
sustainability
strategies.
The
however, to
hasadopt
beenclear
to provide
the appropriate
and inconvenient
for customers,
and
The
challenge
however,
has behaviour.
beensuppliers
to provide
thenetwork
appropriate
cues
to influence
consumer
operators
alike. Smith
estimates
there are network operators
cues
to influence
consumer
behaviour.
who
currently
have
to
deal
with
20,000
a week.
The answer has been to develop ‘nudge’network
policies issues
and choice
‘There
are
insufficient
resources
to
manage
this
situation
in the
The answer has
been to develop
‘nudge’
and The
choice
architecture
to encourage
greater
energypolicies
efficiency.
long-term,’
he
says.
architecture
to encourage
greater
The
Swedish
National
Society for
Roadenergy
Safety,efficiency.
for example,
Swedish driving
National
Society
Road
for example,
reduced
speeds
byfor
22%
in aSafety,
pilot project
that entered
‘The newdriving
wealth
of data
gives
utilities
a granular
insight
into
reduced
speeds
by
22%speed
in a pilot
project
that
entered
motorists
travelling
within
the
limit
into a lottery
prize
usage
patterns,
into
the
status
of
the
distribution
network
motorists
travelling
the speed
into
a lottery
prize
draw.
Similar
‘nudge’within
techniques
havelimit
been
used
to reduce
and allows
planning
andincluding
optimisation
of their
supply
draw.
Similar
‘nudge’
techniques
have been
used
todisplays
reduce
drivers’
fuelbetter
consumption
too,
dashboard
chain,
pre-empting
network
disorders
and
maximising
network
drivers’
fuel
consumption
too,
including
dashboard
displays
that
turn
fuel-efficient
driving
into
a game:
a US Department
availabilities
and
minimising
network
restoration
times,’
that
turn fuel-efficient
driving
into a game:
US Department
of
Energy
study says that
aggressive
drivinga can
reducesays
Bastian
Fischer,
vice
president
of
industry
strategy
at Oracle
of Energy study
says
thatThe
aggressive
driving
reduce
efficiency
by up to
33%.
roll-out of
smartcan
metering
for
Utilities.
Better
management
is
essential
as
the
pressures
on
efficiencyand
by up
to 33%. The
roll-out
of smartpromises
meteringafor
domestic
commercial
energy
consumers
similar
the
power
infrastructure
increase.
The
US
Energy
Information
domestic
andincommercial
energy As
consumers
promises housing
a similar
step
change
energy efficiency.
David Weatherall,
Administration
anticipates
total world
consumption
of ‘Without
energy
step
change
in energy
efficiency.
As David
Weatherall,
housing
strategy
manager
of the
Energy
Saving
Trust,
puts it,
to increase
by 49%
2007 toSaving
2035.
The combination
of a
strategy
manager
offrom
the efficiency
Energy
Trust,
it, telling
‘Without
them,
promoting
energy
has been
a puts
bit like
rapidly
growing
population
and
rich
regional
oil
reserves
mean
them, promoting
energy
efficiency
has been
like telling in
people
to drive slower
when
they don’t
have aa bit
speedometer
the market
for energy
in the they
Middle
East
is expected
people
to drive
slower when
don’t
have
a speedometer in
their
car.’
to increase
their
car.’ by 82% over the same period.
11
13
11
The Future of Energy
The Future
Future of
of Energy
Energy
The
The OECD reports that smart meter information may
To provide
reliable
supplies
meet thisconsumption
rising
The
OECD domestic
reports energy
that
smart
metertoinformation
may demand
encourage
users
to reduce
domestic
will
continue
to
be
of
critical
importance,
especially
as
encourage
domestic
to reducethat
domestic
by
up to 20%.
Bain &users
Co calculates
a 20%consumption
reduction
in
economies
move
to
an
even
greater
dependence
on
by up to
20%. Bain &will
Coreduce
calculates
that a by
20%
reduction
in
power
consumption
emissions
48%.
Adigital
recent
technology.
interruptions
currently
cost
European
power
will
by
48%.
A recent
trial
of consumption
smartPower
meters
by reduce
Ireland’semissions
Commission
for
Energy
Union
an estimated
a year.
Meeting
peakof
trial
ofbusinesses
smart
by Ireland’s
Commission
for
Energy
Regulation
in meters
10,000
homes
and€150bn
businesses
found
that 82%
demand
presents
the
greatest
challenge,
particularly
in
rapidly
Regulation customers
in 10,000 homes
businesses
that
82%
of
residential
made aand
change
in theirfound
energy
use.
‘Pilot
growing economies
where
power infrastructure
may
simply
residential
customers
madethe
a acceptance
change
in their
energy
use.
‘Pilot
projects
show
that customer
is key,’
says
Jessica
be unableshow
toexecutive
cope.
authorities
in Shanghai
extended
their
projects
that The
customer
acceptance
is key,’
says
Jessica
Stromback,
director
of the
Smart
Energy
Demand
power
rationing
this
summer
with
24,000
factories
and
3,000
Stromback,
executive
director
of the
Smart Energy
Demand
Coalition
(SEDC).
‘Once
they have
customer
involvement,
shopping
malls and
office
blocks
subject
mandatory
Coalition
(SEDC).
they
have
customer
involvement,
these
initiatives
are‘Once
delivering
results
yeartoafter
year.’ The
powerEnergy
cuts. Saving
these
initiatives
are delivering
resultsthat
yearthe
after
year.’of
The
UK’s
Trust calculates
roll-out
smart
UK’s Energy
Trustsave
calculates
that the£7.3bn
roll-out
smart
meters
from Saving
2014 could
UK customers
inof
fuel
bills
meters
2014 could save UK customers £7.3bn in fuel bills
over
20from
years.
over 20 years.
With consumer support in mind, many governments have
With consumer
in mind,
governments
have
provided
a rangesupport
of incentives
tomany
help reduce
the energy
provided aplaced
range on
of the
incentives
help reduce
the
energy leads
demands
grid by to
domestic
users.
Germany
demands
placed
on the
gridpanels
by domestic
users. Germany
leads
the
way on
domestic
solar
with a photovoltaic
market
theover
way860,000
on domestic
solarinstalled,
panels with
a photovoltaic
of
systems
generating
12,000 market
GWh of
of over 860,000
systems
installed,
12,000sold
GWh
electricity.
Ensuring
a fixed
price forgenerating
solar electricity
toof
electricity.
Ensuring
a fixed price
solarrise
electricity
sold to
grid
operators
has encouraged
thefor
sharp
in installations.
grid operators has encouraged the sharp rise in installations.
3
Energy efficiency
Mark Ossel of Echelon Energy & Utility, says that a particularly
impressive example is a project by the SEAS-NVE energy
company in Denmark: ‘They have been putting a proper
system in place and doing a great job with communicating with
consumers through text messages, mobile apps, web portals,
whatever the consumer likes. They have provided regular
feedback, as well as incentives, to help change consumer
behaviour. The result has shown a decrease of 17.4% in energy
consumption. There are significant opportunities to have fairly
instant impact on consumers.’
Legislation has also been used to promote change. The UK
government has stipulated that all new homes must meet
zero-carbon regulations by 2016, with improved materials to
increase energy efficiency. The EU estimates that over the
next decade investment in energy saving building materials
and components will need to be increased by up to €200bn.
Taking a city-wide approach to energy efficiency, the Masdar
project in the United Arab Emirates aims to be the world’s
first completely carbon neutral and zero-waste city powered
entirely by solar energy. When completed in 2025, Masdar
could be home to 50,000 people. ‘We’re now getting
information on performance and the data is beginning to build.
This will influence construction and urban planning around
the world,’ says Gerard Evenden, design director and senior
partner at Foster + Partners. ‘The buildings themselves have
to perform better passively if we are going to be able to reduce
energy consumption to a level that can be sustainably
supplied with renewables. We’re achieving about a 50–60%
energy reduction.’
12
The Future of Energy
Veolia Water: A Smart Grid for Water
The water industry provides some
precedents for smart energy. In March
2011, Veolia Water announced the creation
of a new company specialising in remote
environmental data and water meter reading
services. M2o city, a joint venture with
mobile telecommunications operator Orange,
improves the gathering and management
of data related to water usage, and has
significant implications for the reduction
of waste. Individual customers are invoiced
for exact water usage and receive automatic
alerts in case of any abnormal consumption.
Companies and real estate managers are
able to keep a check on year-round usage
across a number of properties. The real
time monitoring of the water network
also enables the detection of serious or
persistent leaks, and the detection of
backflows. To develop the m2o city, Veolia
has implemented Oracle Utilities Meter Data
Management, which will enable it to manage
the vast amounts of data involved, and
provides Veolia with the potential to expand
operations beyond water in the future.
In the more immediate term, m2o city has
already helped improve customer satisfaction
levels: remote meter readings mean that
customers are not disturbed by house visits,
resulting in fewer complaints and billing
inquiries. The project, which is initially
being rolled out in France, also means
that customers can actively monitor their
consumption for conservation programmes.
Overview — Key Take Outs
3
€150
billion
Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency for industry:
a once in a lifetime opportunity
Many aspects of the energy infrastructure are several decades
old. In the UK, pre-1937 electricity cut-outs are being replaced
by 2013. ‘We occasionally encounter assets that date back to
the beginning of the last century,’ says Paul Smith, Operations
Manager of the UK’s Energy Networks Association. ‘The rollout of smart meters and smart grid technologies represents a
once in a lifetime opportunity to address many legacy issues.’
These include practices which are labour intensive, inefficient
and inconvenient for customers, suppliers and network
operators alike. Smith estimates there are network operators
who currently have to deal with 20,000 network issues a week.
‘There are insufficient resources to manage this situation in the
long-term,’ he says.
Annual cost
of power
interruptions
for European
Union businesses
‘The new wealth of data gives utilities a granular insight into
usage patterns, into the status of the distribution network
and allows better planning and optimisation of their supply
chain, pre-empting network disorders and maximising network
availabilities and minimising network restoration times,’ says
Bastian Fischer, vice president of industry strategy at Oracle
Utilities. Better management is essential as the pressures on
the power infrastructure increase. The US Energy Information
Administration anticipates total world consumption of energy
to increase by 49% from 2007 to 2035. The combination of a
rapidly growing population and rich regional oil reserves mean
the market for energy in the Middle East is expected
to increase by 82% over the same period.
13
The Future of Energy
To provide reliable energy supplies to meet this rising demand
will continue to be of critical importance, especially as
economies move to an even greater dependence on digital
technology. Power interruptions currently cost European
Union businesses an estimated €150bn a year. Meeting peak
demand presents the greatest challenge, particularly in rapidly
growing economies where the power infrastructure may simply
be unable to cope. The authorities in Shanghai extended their
power rationing this summer with 24,000 factories and 3,000
shopping malls and office blocks subject to mandatory
power cuts.
3
Business as Unusual
In the coming decades, the use of advanced demand-side
management tools to encourage load-shifting away from
periods of peak demand will be vital. Meeting peak demand
often requires the most expensive, inefficient and polluting
generating capacity to be deployed. Across the EU, between
5% and 8% of installed capacity is only used to meet the
highest 1% of demand. The roll-out of smart grid technologies
over the coming decades will mitigate this through the use
of automated load control programmes, both for domestic
and commercial customers. Although some tools have been
available for decades, the smart grid provides the scalability
to make demand-side management cost-effective.
The PowerMatching City project in Groningen, Netherlands,
consists of 25 households and aims to develop a smart grid
market model using coordination mechanisms. ‘A concern for
distribution companies is that they will run out of capacity,
for example when everyone starts charging their electric
vehicle at night,’ says Frits Bliek principal consultant at KEMA.
‘Automation using smart appliances will help manage demand
without inconveniencing the customer. For example, a smart
washing machine can be instructed to switch on at times
when energy demand and prices are lower.’
14
The Future of Energy
Pecan Street Project:
Collaborating on Smart Energy
Essential to developing smart energy
infrastructure is cooperation between
government, private enterprise and
technological research. In Austin, Texas,
the Pecan Street Project is a collaborative
research project that has developed into
a real world case study. Founded by the
City of Austin, Austin Energy, The
University of Texas, the Austin Technology
Incubator, the Greater Austin Chamber of
Commerce and the Environmental Defense
Fund, it also enlisted the participation
of nearly a dozen private companies to
explore the technical, economic and policy
implications of an energy system that
relies on better energy efficiency, locally
generated renewable energy and a new
economic model for electric utilities.
In early 2010, smart grid monitoring
systems were installed in the first 100
homes in Austin’s Mueller community. Austin
Energy has now built a Customer Information
System (CIS) using software from Oracle.
The CIS is integrated with a smart grid
infrastructure and provides multiple
pricing models and pricing features, as
well as Demand Side Management, allowing
households to wield greater control
over their own energy usage and bills.
It is hoped that demonstration project
will help establish industry standards
for smart grids in the United States.
4
Data Intelligence
The development of the smart grid will produce a dramatic increase in the quantities of data
available to utilities: Lux Research estimates a 900% increase in data volume over the next decade.
$4.1
billion
Estimated value
of the smart grid
analytics market
by 2015, a rise
from $356m
Source: Pike
Research
15
The Future of Energy
4
‘Guaranteeing
privacy is
important
for customer
confidence and
is essential in
encouraging
consumers to
benefit and
participate in
smart energy.’
Bastian Fischer,
vice president,
industry strategy,
Oracle Utilities
16
Data Intelligence
Data analytics: bringing knowledge to power
The ability to turn terabytes of data into intelligent business
decisions will become central to utilities’ efficiency and
competitiveness. ‘Every one of these energy decisions has not
only a financial implication but also a physical implication on
the energy network and energy supply,’ says Bastian Fischer at
Oracle Utilities. The need to extract the value contained within
smart grid data is already encouraging utilities to invest heavily
in data management services and data analytics. Last year Pike
Research estimated that the smart grid analytics market would
grow from $356m to over $4.1bn by 2015.
Smart information systems able to respond in near real time
will enable dynamic pricing, which will have a pronounced
influence on energy use. Providing consumers with timedifferentiated electricity prices creates a clear incentive for
them to modify their behaviour. The US Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) assessment of over 70 pilot
projects suggests dynamic pricing could reduce peak demand
by an average of 20%. ‘The current grid might require more
peaking power plants to compensate for the increasing share
of variable renewable energies. The smart grid can facilitate
the integration of variable renewables by increasing the
flexibility of the electricity system,’ says Steve Heinen at the
International Energy Agency (IEA). ‘Smart Grid technologies
can optimise asset utilisation and reduce peak demand. The
deployment of demand response and controlled smart charging
of electric vehicles for example, could reduce projected peak
demand in 2050 by 12–26 % in OECD countries.’
The Future of Energy
••
••
••
The ready availability of consumer data and dynamic energy
rates will encourage the development of new business models,
fostering competition and altering the competitive landscape.
Energy aggregators will pool customers with similar demand
profiles in order to optimise this demand according to cost or
emissions criteria.
Energy advisors will provide similar optimisation services to
domestic and small commercial customers, either individually
or in groups, according to their cost and risk profiles.
For regulators, promoting competition by ensuring the open
access to both the grid and energy data will remain a central
challenge over the next decade.
4
Data Intelligence
Consumer engagement and data security
– the new vulnerabilities
Despite strong investment in smart grid technologies, many
utilities are not matching their commitment with similar
investments in consumer awareness and education. The Oracle
Smart Grid Rollout report found that 18% of EMEA utilities
surveyed do not have a smart meter customer communication
plan in place. In the short-term this failure to act will blunt the
effectiveness of such enabling technologies. ‘The consumer is
not sure of the technology and that must be addressed before
the deployment of smart meters can be successful,’ says
Monika Stajnarova, an economist at the European Consumers’
Organisation (BEUC). ‘Consumers must be engaged with smart
meters if their energy behaviour is to be changed.’
With the EU aiming for 80% of users to have smart meters
by 2020 this process of customer education will begin in
earnest in the near future. The BEUC believes that companies
should ensure end-to-end privacy and security but notes that
common standards are not yet in place. The level of detail
available on consumers’ energy usage could potentially allow
similar insight into their lifestyles. To forestall accusations of
unwanted intrusion it is essential that the smart grid provide
data transparency in gaining the necessary consumer support.
Bastian Fischer says, ‘Guaranteeing privacy is important for
customer confidence and is essential in encouraging them to
participate in smart energy.’
Such confidence is also closely linked to the wider public
perception of the security of the smart grid. Whilst intelligent
energy systems will provide greater network resilience,
they also introduce new vulnerabilities. The threat of cyber
terrorism and energy theft are real enough. The UK Cabinet
Office estimates that cyber crime already cost the UK
17
The Future of Energy
economy alone some £27bn in 2010. ‘We cannot afford to have
this impact on the energy networks,’ says Fischer, ‘because
we cannot just shut down our energy infrastructure. The
protection of ICT platforms and integrity of all active smart
grid components is a prerequisite.’
The potential for criminal disruption or exploitation of a highly
interconnected energy smart grid is already galvanising an
effort to coordinate security standards. Jessica Stromback of
the SEDC points to public confidence in online banking and
is optimistic about public acceptance. ‘As long as the issue is
given the proper respect and built into regulatory structures
I don’t think this will be a long-term barrier,’ she says. David
Weatherall of the UK’s Energy Saving Trust agrees: ‘If we
get the education and awareness phase right I think people
will be willing to let their information be used in a flexible and
empowering way so that we can help them save energy.’
In Germany this has proved a major factor in the
implementation of smart energy policy: ‘The government is
currently developing a protection profile for smart meters.
Once this has been established, we will be able to begin
installing smart meters in every new building and any existing
buildings with consumption higher than 6000 kWh per year,’
says Dr Andreas Breuer at RWE. According to Mark Ossel at
Echelon Energy & Utility, it is a problem that can be overcome:
‘People need to distinguish between the data needed to
manage the grid and personal data. These days the technology
is there for data to be safe, as in financial systems. It is a
matter of methods and procedures, particularly with the human
interface, which is the bigger risk rather than the technology.’
5
Generation and storage
The smart grid will enable distributed generation of power and this will increase the penetration
of renewables – such as solar and wind – at the same time as delivering improved efficiency
and reliability. But the challenge is in managing these sources’ variable outputs.
Solar Sinter by Markus
Kayser. This sand- and
solar-powered 3D printer
uses a Fresnel lens to
focus a beam of sunlight
hot enough to melt silica
sand, which is then
used as ink to print
glass objects
18
The Future of Energy
5
Generation and storage
Renewable Energy Generation – meeting the
twin desire for environmental responsibility
and energy independence
The EU’s 2050 Low Carbon Strategy targets require the almost
complete decarbonisation of the power sector, which currently
accounts for 37% of all CO2 emissions. The share of low
carbon technologies in the electricity generation sector is
estimated to increase from 45% today to approximately 60% in
2020, 80% in 2030 and nearly 100% in 2050. Carbon capture
and nuclear power offer a partial solution but significant use
of renewables is essential, particularly in markets such as
Germany, which plans to phase out its nuclear plants by 2022.
The EU target of a 20% share for renewables by 2020 is
just the start.
Today 80% of global energy comes from fossil fuels, but the
WWF argues that obtaining 100% of our energy needs from
renewables by 2050 is an achievable target. Renewables
consultancy, Ecofys, says this scenario would include a 15%
cut in energy demand over the next four decades and
estimates a worldwide annual saving of nearly €4 trillion
compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario. Its calculations
highlight both the potential and the difficulties presented
by renewable energy. For example, an additional 1.1m wind
turbines could meet 25% of the world’s electricity needs
by 2050. Today, wind power accounts for only 2% of global
electricity demand, although in Denmark it is responsible
for 20%.
19
The Future of Energy
The motivation for such decarbonisation is not simply to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also to ensure energy
independence and security. The European Commission
estimated that energy imports in 2008 cost the EU €350bn, or
€700 per citizen. Countries such as Turkey are eager to reduce
their dependence on imported oil and gas, often sourced from
increasingly expensive and volatile international markets. The
country imports over 90% of its oil and 95% of its natural gas,
while only 4% of electricity produced comes from renewables.
The European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) calculates
that by 2050, wind and photovoltaic energy will contribute
approximately 30% each towards EU electricity consumption.
Geothermal is anticipated to provide an additional 12%, with
an additional 10% from biomass sources. Half of the EU’s
energy demands is for heating and cooling, and biomass will
account for 45% of this specific area of demand by 2050.
Solar thermal and geothermal sources are expected to expand
rapidly from 2030 onwards to meet the remaining 55% of
demand. The EREC believes the number of people employed
in the renewable energy sector in Europe could increase from
500,000 today to over 6m in 2050.
5
30%
By 2050, wind
and photovoltaic
energy will
contribute
approximately
30% each towards
EU electricity
consumption
Source: European
Renewable Energy
Council
Generation and storage
Even oil rich regions will see significant growth in renewables
over the next four decades. Biomass and wind power in Russia
and solar energy in the Middle East have huge development
potential. Will Pearson, global energy and natural resources
analyst at the Eurasia Group, believes renewables’ overall share
of these energy markets will remain small in the medium term.
‘This is particularly true of Russia as it has abundant coal and
natural gas, which can be used domestically, combined with
strong government support for nuclear energy,’ he says. ‘In
the Middle East there is a drive to preserve hydrocarbons for
export, but again the share of renewables is likely to remain
pretty minimal overall.’
‘The momentum is going to increase over the next 40 years
but we’re not going to see as much progress in the early years
as we will in the later years,’ says Jeff Erikson, senior vice
president of thinktank SustainAbility. ‘Distributed generation
will become more pronounced. It’s going to become much more
of a mosaic of energy sources.’ The proper government policies
could accelerate this process but Erikson believes the move
towards a low carbon energy future will happen only when
there is price parity between different sources of energy. Will
Pearson agrees, saying ‘the unconventional gas boom creates
further uncertainty for renewables because it will reduce the
cost of natural gas, delaying the price parity of renewables
and extending their dependence on subsidy programmes.’
Natural Energy
advertising hoarding by
DDB Paris for Tropicana,
France. The advertising
agency harnessed the
power of 2,500 oranges
to create a 100% orangepowered billboard
20
The Future of Energy
5
6
million
Estimated number
of people in
Europe employed
in the renewable
energy sector
in 2050, up from
500,000 today
Source: European
Renewable Energy
Council
21
Generation and storage
Storage – the key to maintaining
always-on power
Smart grid technologies will be essential to maximising the
full benefits of renewables, not only because renewable
sources are often distributed across many locations, rather
than concentrated in central power plants, but also because
many have variable and unpredictable outputs. Greater
interconnection, such as switching to daylight solar in the
South and night time wind in the North will increase a
network’s ability to accommodate variable renewables,
but infrastructure limitations remain.
The IEA highlights Denmark for its ability to accommodate
63% renewables, partly thanks to its connections with other
Nordic markets. This figure falls to 48% for the Nordic market
in general, 31% for the British Isles and 27% for Iberia. The
ability to balance supply and demand has always been required
of energy networks but the variability of renewables means
that storing energy is essential to maintaining the provision
of always-on power. Currently both storage technology and
infrastructure are a weak link in the route towards a low
carbon economy.
The Future of Energy
Pumped hydro storage allows water to be pumped to a higher
altitude at times of low demand, storing huge amounts of
energy that can be released when required. This process has
a modest energy loss of about 25% but its feasibility depends
on suitable geography. Superconductors can store electricity
within a magnetic coil at extremely low temperatures without
any energy loss. Alternatively cheap electricity can be stored in
compressed air used to drive turbines when demand increases.
Approximately 40% of energy is lost in the process.
5
Generation and storage
Batteries
Energy can be stored in batteries to
manage power fluctuations, usually over
periods of less than an hour. Round
trip energy efficiency can be 80% or
more but high costs and limited battery
lifespan are disadvantages.
Electric vehicles
Not only can smart grid technology
charge electric vehicles (EV) when
energy is cheap, it could also draw
energy from car batteries at times of
peak demand, adding an additional
storage option. An EV battery could
meet the power needs of the average
family for five days but batteries are
expensive and repeated recharging
reduces their lifespan.
Thermal Storage
Energy generated by solar thermal
plants is particularly well suited to being
stored as heat. A range of technologies
has been developed including graphite,
pressurised steam and molten salts. The
process of heating salts to over 220
degrees Celsius can retain up to 93% of
the energy, which can be stored for up
to a week.
Capacitors
Able to store and release sizeable
quantities of electricity in a matter
of seconds, capacitors are an
inexpensive and reliable solution
to frequency regulation.
Pumped Storage
Surplus energy can also be used to
pump water to a reservoir at a higher
altitude which then be drained through
turbines at times of peak demand. Huge
quantities of energy can be stored in
this way with only a 20%–30% loss in
the process. The construction costs are
however, considerable.
Flywheel
These devices are able to store and
release energy almost instantaneously,
making them ideal for managing very
short-term variation in electricity
generation. Airtight encapsulation
and magnetic bearings increase
efficiency significantly.
22
Hydrogen
Using renewable energy to extract
hydrogen from water or natural
gas is a comparatively wasteful
process in which up to half the energy
is lost. However, the hydrogen can
be stored in compressed gas or liquid
states and its energy density makes it
a huge potential for specific applications
such as fuel for vehicles.
Superconductors
Advanced superconducting magnetic
energy storage (SMES) systems use
magnetic fields in superconducting coils
to store energy. Cooling these coils to
near absolute zero (–273 Celsius) allows
energy to be stored indefinitely with
almost zero loss.
The Future of Energy
Compressed Air
Air can be compressed by surplus
electricity and stored in tanks or in
sealed caves. When it is released it can
be used to power turbines. 40% of the
energy is lost in the process but this
storage technology is relatively cheap.
5
Generation and storage
Peak Load Shifting
The development of storage technology and infrastructure will
also address the need to store energy for a matter of minutes
or seconds in order to optimise turbine energy production and
manage a stable power supply. Batteries are currently efficient
but expensive and typically used for periods of less than 30
minutes. Capacitors and flywheels are well suited for regulating
the second-by-second frequency of highly variable renewables
such as wind.
The use of hydrogen as an energy store will be significant in
the decades ahead, particularly for specific power uses. The
gas can be extracted from water or natural gas and, although
50% of the energy is lost in the process, hydrogen is suitable
as a high grade fuel for high energy density applications such
as transport – including aviation. Starting in 2013, the Audi
e-gas project aims to turn hydrogen into synthetic methane
using renewable energy from North Sea wind farms. Audi’s A3
TCNG can run on this e-gas and could potentially offer carbon
neutral motoring.
Just as important for the balancing of
the grid is peak load shifting. This means
reduction of electricity energy demand
during a utility’s peak generation period,
and is particularly useful where there is
a high ratio of volatile or intermittent
renewable energy supply. This can happen
very precisely, in discrete geographical
areas by, for example, controlling
switchable loads such as heat pumps.
It can also be done on a large scale
by interrupting the work of a few large
industrial sites, such as aluminium
production. This strategy is well
established: it was piloted on an urban
scale by Beijing during the 1990s, driven
in part by an over-burdened coal industry.
Industrial manufacturers and the government
worked to introduce price differentials
for peak and off-peak energy, replaced
inefficient machinery and interrupted
production during peak times. The net
result of these measures was a reduction
in the peak demand of 50 MW in 1997
and an additional 50 MW in 1998: there
was an increase of 150 GWh in energy
consumption during the off-peak period.
‘The largest and most recent example is
in Japan,’ says Bastian Fischer, ‘where
they were dealing with the massive
reconfiguration of the Japanese energy
network after the shutdown of several
nuclear power plants, the start up of
several conventional plants alongside
imposed load shifting and energy
conservation. Although the trigger for
this was a natural disaster followed by
a nuclear accident, it is a situation
which provides many lessons and insights.’
23
The Future of Energy
6
Low carbon transport
On the back of promises to spur infrastructure investment, encourage new services
and promote consumer understanding of energy use, electrictransportation
is regarded as a crucial application of the smart grid.
Nissan Leaf by Nissan,
an all-electric car that
produces no exhaust
pollution or greenhouse
gas emissions
24
The Future of Energy
6
100
million
Global sales of
electric vehicles
by 2050
Source:
International
Energy Agency
25
Low carbon transport
The EU transport sector is 98% dependent on oil for its energy
supplies. European greenhouse gas emissions from transport
rose by 26% between 1990 and 2007 in contrast to a decline
in emissions from non-transport sectors. The decarbonisation
of transport is an important component of the future of energy
and the European Commission’s Transport 2050 strategy calls
for a cut in carbon emissions of 60% by 2050. To achieve
this target over the next four decades we will see the removal
of conventionally fuelled cars for urban transport, a 40% use
of low carbon fuels in aviation and a 50% shift in mediumdistance freight and passenger traffic away from roads towards
rail and shipping.
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles will have a dramatic
impact on the smart grid by spurring infrastructure investment,
encouraging new services and promoting public awareness
and engagement with their energy use. Large cities will adopt
the technology first, driven by a need to improve air quality
and by consumers who predominantly require their car for
short journeys. The MOBI.E project in Portugal recently
saw the installation of 1,350 public charging stations across
25 municipalities. Management consultancy McKinsey says
plug-in hybrid cars and battery-only electric vehicles will
account for 16% of new car sales in New York, 9% in Paris
and 5% in Shanghai by 2015.
Biofuels will be one of the factors that will make this transport
growth sustainable, particularly before 2020, the time by which
the Renewable Energy Directive requires at least a 10% share
for renewable energy in transport. But beyond 2020 the role of
renewable electric vehicles becomes more pronounced. Peter
Voser, chief executive officer of Royal Dutch Shell, recently
said that plug-in electric vehicles would represent 40% of
the global car market by 2050. The IEA suggests global sales
targets of electric vehicles will be 7m in 2020, 30m in 2030
and 100m by 2050.
Mark Ossel says that an important factor will be the uneven
distribution of the technology: ‘Some may say that in 2020,
only 5% or 10% of cars may be electrical. But the reality will be
that in certain areas of the city, there might be 15% of people
with a second car as an electrical car. This will mean a greater
energy demand in specific areas of a city, placing a greater
urgency on the implementation of a smart energy system.’
Global auto manufacturers are already looking beyond hybrids
towards fully electric cars. Nissan, manufacturers of the allelectric Leaf, aims to sell 1.5m electric cars by the end of 2016.
It will face competition from models such as the Audi e-tron,
the Chevrolet Volt and the Tesla Model S. By the beginning of
2011 there were 30 electric vehicle models in various markets,
with an additional 40 expected to be introduced during the
course of the year. Uptake will be promoted by government
policies, too. The German government is allocating €1bn for
research and development. It hopes to have 1m electric cars
on the country’s roads by 2020.
The Future of Energy
6
Low carbon transport
‘The charging infrastructure required by electric vehicles
is a big issue and will help to move the whole discussion of
smart energy forward,’ says Frits Bliek principal consultant
with energy consultancy KEMA. Utilities and grid companies
will be forced to invest in smart grid technologies in order
to accommodate the power demands of millions of electric
vehicles. ‘I’m convinced that electric vehicles are one of the
primary catalysts moving us towards a low carbon future,’
says Jeff Erikson of think tank SustainAbility.
Smart metering will be required not only to collect, aggregate
and communicate consumption and event data records to a
sophisticated CRM, billing and fulfilment platform – but also
to an advanced and distributed network management system
aimed at optimising the balance of supply and demand in
the low voltage distribution network. It will have to do this
while maximising the potential of renewable energy. The
smart charging of electric vehicles, the optimised use of
heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and other
smart appliances will enable switching demand from peak
time, such as in the early evening, to times of low demand
– after midnight. In the future electric vehicles will become
an intelligent and efficient means of decentralised electricity
storage, mitigating the network congestion on low voltage
and ultimately allowing individuals to sell back to the grid in
order to help further manage supply and demand.
Perhaps most importantly of all is that the rapid adoption of
electric vehicles will prompt public awareness and engagement
of the issue of energy usage.
26
The Future of Energy
Electric Vehicles in Portugal:
Building the Infrastructure
In Portugal, the MOBI-E pilot project –
an integrated platform for the deliverance
of electric mobility – is being rolled out
across 25 municipalities and the country’s
main highways. As part of this governmentled project, Inteli, a privately owned
non-profit association, is installing
1,300 slow charging stations and 50 fast
charging stations. Oracle is working with
Inteli to provide the ICT infrastructure
to operate the network – this includes
the implementation of Oracle Utilities
Customer Care and Billing, Oracle Fusion
Middleware and Oracle Database 11g. This
will deliver base rating and billing,
enabling monthly flat rate and time-ofday rating of electricity consumption
and network usage. It will also allow
charging for additional services, such as
parking, roaming between electric vehicle
operators and energy retailers, as well
as the settlement and clearing of all
transactions among the service providers.
7
Country Snapshots
Which of the smart grid technologies or renewable energy resources a country
chooses to invest in – if they choose to invest in them at all – is influenced by
factors ranging from geography to political expediency. These snapshots show
the differing futures of key territories across Europe and the Middle East.
Masdar City concept, the
world’s first carbonneutral, car-free and
zero-waste city,
by Foster + Partners,
Abu Dhabi
27
The Future of Energy
7
€1.5
billion
Country Snapshots
Germany: Rejecting Nuclear and
Focusing on Renewable
A decision was made in 2002 to phase out Germany’s nuclear
power plants, but only last year Chancellor Angela Merkel
announced plans to extend their operational lifetimes by an
average of 12 years in order to help the country meet its
ambitious target of a 40% cut in carbon emissions by 2020.
This changed dramatically after the disaster at Japan’s
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Seven of Germany’s
reactors were taken offline almost immediately and the
government announced the last of the country’s nuclear
capacity would now be shut down in 2022.
The IEA highlights the challenge now facing Germany in
replacing 50 TWh of low carbon nuclear electricity with wind
and solar. The government has said it wants 35% of power
to come from renewables by 2022, compared to 16% today,
but that is unlikely to replace the lost low carbon capacity of
the nuclear plants. Nevertheless, political reality means the
IEA is currently revising downwards its estimate of nuclear
accounting for 14% of world energy output by 2035.
Funding available
from the German
government
reserved for
research and
development
projects in the
ICT industry,
essential to
developing the
country’s smart
energy system
in the future.
Source: Germany
Trade and Invest
28
The Future of Energy
The Federal Environment Agency believes that all electricity
will come from renewable energy sources by 2050. Germany
already enjoys a strong position as the world’s second biggest
producer of wind energy after the United States. The feed-in
tariffs laid down in the Renewable Energy Act have also made
the country a world leader in photovoltaics. The country
currently produces over 17,000MW of photovoltaic energy
compared to less than 4,000MW in second-place Spain.
The German government is placing great emphasis upon the
development of smart energy systems, and the essential ICT
systems to accompany it: it has described its mission as being
to create an ‘internet of energy.’
As in other countries, the growth of alternative energy supplies
and decentralised power generation will create increasing
demand for a smart energy system. ‘There are new patterns
of demand across the country,’ says Dr Andreas Breuer of
RWE. ‘In the Ruhr Valley, for example, old coal mines that
have closed down, have now the location for new service
companies, which places a new demand on the grid. We are
already implementing a smart grid, we cannot handle the
changes in energy demand and supply in any other way. It
is not a revolution, it is an evolution.’
7
Country Snapshots
Iberia: A Centre for Solar Energy Generation
2.6GW
Solar power
capacity installed
in Spain in
2008: more than
the entire solar
capacity installed
worldwide in 2007
29
Spain’s primary energy supply has declined by some 11% since
2007, largely because of the economic downturn, but the
long-term trend will see increasing demand for electricity.
In a bid to reduce the country’s dependence on imported oil
and gas, Spain has increased the share of nuclear power from
3% to 11% over the last 40 years. Renewables have increased
from 5% to 9% over the same period, thanks in recent years
to government policies that promoted solar thermal and
photovoltaics. Such incentives are essential to encourage an
industry with high upfront installation costs and a need to build
investor confidence.
However, the experience of the Spanish solar sector illustrates
how building the infrastructure fit for tomorrow’s energy
needs not only political support but also policy consistency.
The incentives for solar energy introduced in 2004 – feed-in
tariffs – proved far more effective than anticipated. A target of
400MW of solar power capacity by 2010 was comprehensively
exceeded. A total of 2.6GW was installed in 2008 alone – more
than the entire solar capacity installed worldwide in 2007. In
the face of unsustainable costs exacerbated by recession,
the government introduced retrospective cuts to subsidies,
causing widespread uncertainty and disruption in the sector.
The Future of Energy
Portugal faces a similar situation. According to Miguel Stilwell
d’Andrade, board member of EDP Distribuição, the key
challenge facing energy suppliers in Europe is meeting the 2020
European goals. This will require ‘a major change in the way we
produce and consume energy. Achieving these goals will require
not only the increase in electrification of the economy (for
example in transportation) but also the decarbonisation of the
power sources (with a higher share of renewable energy and
distributed generation).’ Stilwell d’Andrade sees smart grids as
central to this, and EDP is conducting a pilot project, InovGrid,
involving more than 30,000 clients in the district of Évora.
This project is part of the MOBI.E roll-out (see Low Carbon
Transport). ‘We can already say that many small businesses
can reduce their consumption by over 10% as a result of the
information and value added provided by the project,’ he says.
The future of this project depends on the extension of such
pilots to other municipalities in Portugal during 2012, and on the
regulatory conditions. The Portuguese government has yet to
decide on a national roll-out of the smart grid project.
7
‘There are
stringent Kyoto
targets we have
to meet. The
country is looking
at developing
the supply
side through
renewables and
the demand side
through smart
energy to get a
low carbon count
for Ireland.’
John Mullins,
chief executive,
Bord Gáis
30
Country Snapshots
Ireland: A Future for Wind Power
and Smart Energy
Recent economic woes have caused problems for Ireland’s
renewable energy market. ‘The reduced availability of bank
finance has hit small energy producers. Many projects can’t
get funded or if they can get funded at a premium,’ says John
Mullins, chief executive of Bord Gáis. Nevertheless, it is more
important than ever to increase renewable energy production:
‘There are stringent Kyoto targets we have to meet,’ says
Mullins. ‘None of us wants to pay fines, so the country is
looking at developing the supply side through renewables and
the demand side through smart energy to get a low carbon
count for Ireland.’
However, at the moment renewable sources account for
only 2% of primary energy supply. Ireland remains a thirsty
consumer of oil. The combined share of oil (59%) and gas
(23%) in the country’s energy supply has almost doubled over
the last 20 years. While its domestic production of energy,
mainly through solid fuels (peat) and natural gas, has decreased
in recent years, the production of energy through renewable
sources has increased significantly: by 94%
since 1990.
The Future of Energy
This increase in renewable energy supply has been due to
the new wind power capacity. A €3.2bn programme of
construction and development of high voltage transmission
lines is already underway, which is essential to the incorporation
of wind power into the power grid. This is part of the Grid25
programme instigated by Ireland’s state-owned power operator,
Eirgrid. There have also been extensive trials for smart energy
systems, with 1800 smart meters installed across the country.
These trials will be completed in October 2011, but early
signs suggest a decrease of between 3%–5% in household
energy consumption. ‘This is purely on a reading basis,’ says
Mullins. ‘If you have an interaction between the meter and an
ICT algorithm, you could have a much higher level of demand
reduction at a household level, and the cost-benefit analysis of
these meters will go onwards and upwards.’
7
15%
The Desertec
Foundation
estimates that
a network of
concentrated
solar-thermal
power plants
throughout the
Middle East and
North Africa
could provide
Europe with 15%
of its energy
requirements
31
Country Snapshots
Middle East: Diversifying Away
from Oil Dependence
The rising price and growing demand for oil means depleting
reserves in the Middle East are exacerbated by the region’s
own growing energy needs. Saudi Arabia now consumes almost
130,000 barrels per day for domestic power generation, almost
double the amount of a decade ago. This costs the kingdom
$6.5bn a year in lost exports. According to Ali Saleh Al-Barrak,
chief executive officer of Saudi Electricity Company, there
has been an increased demand for electric power at the rate
of 8% per year in Saudi Arabia. ‘There is high residential
consumption, 55% of our energy consumed by domestic use,
and consumption per capita has doubled over the last 15 years,’
he says. This trend is spurring many countries in the region
to invest their petrodollars in clean energy and safeguard and
diversify their export revenues. This nascent revolution will
grow substantially over the coming decades. In 2010 alone
clean energy investment in the Middle East and Africa rose
104% to $5bn.
Egypt intends to source 20% of its energy from renewables
by 2020. Jordan has adopted a 10% target and Kuwait aims
for a more modest 5%. Much of the region is ideally suited to
solar energy with large areas of desert and reliable weather
conditions. A solar farm of 180 square kilometres, or 1% of the
country’s territory, could supply all of Kuwait’s energy needs.
Egypt built its first 140MW solar thermal plant last year and
a second $700m plant will come online in 2017. There is also
a growing interest in developing smart energy systems and
technology: ‘Unless we have a strong effort on the demand
side – with population growth, demand will continue to grow,’
says Ali Saleh Al-Barrak. ‘We are looking for more energy
preservation by giving the tools for the consumers. Over the
next few years investment of $40bn in generation expansion is
needed, and $24bn for expanding distribution, including
some investment in making our system more intelligent
and more smart.’
The Future of Energy
The Desertec Foundation calls for the establishment of
a network of concentrated solar-thermal power plants
throughout the Middle East and North Africa to usher in a new
era of energy exports. The 40-year, €400bn proposal could
provide Europe with 15% of its energy requirements. ‘In desert
regions, the potential of solar and wind power is colossal,’ says
Dr Gerry Wolff of Desertec-UK. ‘A small fraction of the world’s
deserts could generate electricity equivalent to the world’s
total energy consumption – although it would be prudent to
combine ‘desert’ power with other renewables in other parts
of the world’. The cost of renewables is coming down and
subsidies for traditional sources of power will be progressively
withdrawn. It is likely that, within 10 years, the commercial
balance will tilt increasingly in favour of renewables.
7
30%
Country Snapshots
Netherlands: Smart Technologies
for Domestic Consumers
The Dutch government has not yet announced a mandatory
national roll-out of smart meters. Despite this lack of political
impetus a number of experiments led by local utilities are
pioneering the development of smart grid technologies.
The smart energy Collective 5000 brings together more than
twenty companies to develop intelligent energy concepts.
The PowerMatching City project is a real world laboratory for
smart grid technologies. In the town of Hoogkerk, 25 homes
have been virtually connected together, with digital controls
used to match demand and supply. The project aims to develop
models that are simultaneously optimised for consumers and
network operators and at the same time seamlessly coordinate
hybrid heat pumps, smart appliances and electric cars.
‘Demand at the local level can be effectively balanced by giving
price incentives to consumers,’ says Frits Bliek of KEMA, the
company that reviewed the project. ‘At the same time energy
suppliers regard the network of energy generators in people’s
homes as one big power plant. They can increase or decrease
production as necessary and sell surplus energy on the wider
energy market.’
Reduction in gas
and electricity
use in homes
and offices in
the Netherlands
by 2020
32
The Future of Energy
The Dutch government has more ambitious plans with regard
to energy efficiency. By 2020 the Netherlands’ 2.4m homes
and offices must use 30% less gas and electricity than today.
The Meer met Minder (More with Less) Foundation believes
total carbon neutrality could be achieved by 2050. The Jouw
Energie Moment scheme in the city of Breda shows how this
target could be reached, with 300 homes incorporating the
latest energy saving technology, including solar panels, smart
appliances and electric vehicle chargers. The homes are
designed to give homeowners the awareness and choice
of the cheapest or most sustainable energy.
7
34%
GDP
Country Snapshots
Nordics: Green Taxes and Public Awareness
The Nordic governments are historically strong supporters
of green taxation. It’s a win-win approach that uses the fiscal
incentive of taxation to encourage green behaviour and
facilitate R&D and innovation. Finland was the first nation to
enact a carbon tax in 1990, a model that Norway, Sweden and
Denmark soon followed. Such measures are effective. In 1994
Denmark became the first nation to tax plastic bags, cutting
their use by 66%.
To reach the 2015 EU requirement that all new cars in Europe
must not exceed emissions of 130g/km CO2, Denmark
introduced a vehicle registration tax ranging from a punitive
105% to 180% of the purchasing price. It’s a cost that electric
car buyers are exempt from and are instead rewarded with
free parking in Copenhagen. Norway, Sweden and Finland have
similar emissions-based vehicle tax schemes as part of their
target of becoming carbon neutral by 2030.
The prohibition approach in Nordic countries has demonstrated
that economic growth does not equate to an increase in energy
consumption or CO2 emissions. Sweden increased GNP by
48% between 1990 and 2007 and decreased GHGs by 11.7%.
Denmark has witnessed 30 years of economic growth
without increasing energy consumption. Iceland’s green tax
reinvestment in geothermal means it no longer imports oil
for heating.
This heavy taxation on traditional fuels has spurred innovation
such as the planned collaboration between pork producer
Stjörnugrís and energy company Metanorka, which will build
Iceland’s first biological waste power plant. The Nordic states
are proving that an intelligent, hierarchical tax system can
make significant steps towards sustainability.
Revenue from clean
tech industry
in Denmark
Source: WWF
33
The Future of Energy
100,000
tonnes
per year
CO2 to be captured
at Europe’s
single largest
polluter, the
Belchatow power
plant, by 2015
34
7
Country Snapshots
Poland: The Need for Carbon Capture and Storage
With its dependence on coal for 90% of its electricity and 55%
of its energy supply, Poland has led the resistance to more
stringent carbon targets beyond the 20% reduction by 2020.
As a means of diversifying its energy sources, Warsaw will
develop the extraction of shale gas over the coming decades
despite environmental concerns. It’s a decision faced by a
number of Eastern European countries including Hungary,
Bulgaria and Romania. ‘Nuclear and renewables are very costly
and for a country like Poland that has other resources that are
less expensive,’ says Will Pearson. ‘There is pressure to keep
energy prices low as the economy grows.’
Poland’s dependence on fossil fuels will continue for many
years. Coal is anticipated to still provide 60% of energy needs
in 2030. As a consequence the country will become a leader in
the development of carbon capture and storage technology.
Europe’s single largest polluter, the Belchatow power plant,
will be the location of an Alstom pilot plant designed to capture
100,000 tonnes of CO2 a year by 2015. Such technologies,
combined with energy efficiency fostered by the roll-out of
the smart grid, will do much to help Poland meet its carbon
reduction targets.
The Future of Energy
Poland has the second lowest share of renewables in electricity
generation among the 28 members of the IEA. Growth will
continue to be led by technologies such as biomass, which
takes advantage of Poland’s agricultural land and relatively
low population density. An estimated 800,000 hectares of
biomass will be required to meet the government’s ‘Biogas
2020’ strategy, which commits to the generation of 2000MW
of electric power by 2020, with a facility in every municipality.
7
$10
billion
Country Snapshots
Russia: The Quest for Energy Efficiency
Russia is responsible for 12% of the world’s oil market and its
energy strategy until 2030 plans to increase the exploitation
of its huge oil and gas reserves. This is partly to meet its own
domestic electricity needs, which are expected to increase
from 1.8 to 2.2 trillion kWh over this period. But it is also
aimed at meeting an insatiable demand for energy exports,
particularly from emerging markets. The share of oil exports
accounted for by the Far East will increase from 6% to 20%
by 2030.
Despite its hydrocarbon wealth, Russia has also set a modest
target to obtain 4.5% of its electricity from renewables by
2020. The country is eager to exploit its natural advantage
in biomass and hydroelectric power. Specific local energy
sources will also be developed over the coming decades such
as geothermal in the Pacific Far East and wind power in the
republic of Kalmykia in the south west, which already obtains
60% of its power from wind turbines.
Equivalent cost
per year of the
12% of energy
in Russia that
is lost in
transmission
35
The Future of Energy
However, the main focus of the energy ministry’s strategy
until 2020 is efficiency. Russia is the third largest consumer
of energy in the world but decades of underinvestment mean
that the country’s grid requires substantial investment and
modernisation. It is estimated that 12% of energy is lost in
transmission, equivalent to $10bn a year. The government
plans to invest $300bn in order to increase energy efficiency
by 40% by 2020 including support for smart grid technologies.
7
Located close
to 73% of the
world’s proven
oil and 72%
of global gas
reserves, Turkey
has a profound
influence on the
energy security
of other markets
36
Country Snapshots
Turkey: Securing the Energy for
a Growing Economy
Contrasting with recession elsewhere, Turkey’s economy grew
at just under 9% in 2010 and even outpaced China in the first
quarter of 2011. The rising living standards of its young and
rapidly urbanising population will continue to contribute to what
the IEA anticipates will be a doubling in energy demand over
the next decade. Securing this energy supply is a key feature of
Turkey’s future energy plans and, as a major transit corridor, the
country also has a profound influence on the energy security of
other markets too. Turkey is located close to 73% of the world’s
proven oil and 72% of global gas reserves.
With an almost total dependence on imports for its
requirements of oil (93%) and gas (97%) the country has
signed long-term agreements with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
The pipelines across Turkey that connect the Caspian and
Northern Iraq to international markets will also play a crucial
role in supplying Europe’s energy imports, which are expected
to grow 15% by 2030. Will Pearson at the Eurasia Group
believes that recent energy policy decisions could strengthen
the case for infrastructure projects such as the proposed
Nabucco pipeline. ‘The decision to move away from nuclear
[in Germany and in Italy] is going to contribute towards
momentum for a southern corridor project.’
The Future of Energy
Over the coming decades Turkey will also turn to renewables to
mitigate its dependence on imports. The government aims for
the country to meet 30% of demand by 2023. Of Turkey’s 980
wind farms, 200 came online last year and the European Wind
Energy Association estimates this sector alone could ultimately
meet 20% of energy demand. Substantial additional supply will
come from solar, hydro and geothermal sources.
7
£8
billion
Business as Unusual
UK: Tapping Wind and Tidal Power
The UK has committed to providing 15% of electricity from
renewables by 2020 but there is considerable potential for a
higher share. As much as 35% of the UK’s energy requirements
could come from renewable sources by 2020 according to a
2011 review commissioned by the Department of Energy and
Climate Change (DECC). ‘It’s important to note that the annual
build that we were looking at in this study was not financially
constrained,’ says Simon Power, technical director of the study
at Arup. ‘It’s the art of the possible; an attempt to understand
what is blocking build out of 18 different technologies. It shows
what could be achieved.’
Onshore wind, particularly in Scotland, could grow as much
as 500% in that period, but offshore wind has even greater
deployment potential. 41GW could be generated offshore by
2030. The UK is currently the world’s largest single market for
offshore wind and the Department of Business, Innovation and
Skills (BIS) estimates the sector will employ 70,000 workers
and generate £8bn in revenue by 2020.
Estimated revenue
from offshore wind
in the UK by 2020
Source: BIS
37
The Future of Energy
The UK also has the largest marine energy resources in Europe
and is a world leader in other marine energy technologies,
principally wave, tidal stream and tidal range generation. The
Wave Hub off the north coast of Cornwall and the European
Marine Energy Centre in Orkney are major proving grounds for
marine energy technologies, which RenewableUK believes could
have 1–2GW of installed capacity by 2020. The organisation
calculates that wave and tidal power could ultimately meet
15–20% of the UK’s current electricity demand.
8
Key Take-Outs
••
••
••
38
Widely shared objectives of energy security, reduced
emissions and continued economic growth are dependent
on the development of a smart grid capable of delivering
energy efficiency and demand response, as well as integrating
renewable and variable sources of energy.
Electric vehicles will act as a major catalyst, encouraging
the necessary investment in energy technologies and
infrastructure. Recharging services will heighten public
awareness of their energy consumption, too.
The complexity and cost associated with the deployment of
the smart grid means that market forces alone are insufficient
to drive the necessary investment. Governments must take
the lead, putting in place the appropriate policy and regulatory
framework and ensuring the costs and benefits of investment
are aligned.
The Future of Energy
••
••
••
The development of successful large-scale pilot projects is
an important element in gaining the support of smart grid
developments. Such schemes are also vital in developing
robust business models that are adapted to the
circumstances of individual markets.
The need for public awareness and support is vital if the
necessary changes to energy use and consumption are to be
achieved. Greater efforts are required to educate the public
of the long-term benefits enabled by a smart
energy infrastructure.
The variable output of many renewable energy sources is likely
to increase peak power demand. The smart grid is an essential
means of balancing supply and demand and enabling the
development of a low carbon economy.
9
Glossary
Biofuels Fuels made from organic material including wood chip
and biogas from animal waste, but principally used to describe
biodiesel or ethanol made from crops such as sugarcane,
rapeseed or corn.
Low Carbon Technologies Technologies that cut the demand
for energy, and technologies that enable the exploitation of
sources of energy with no or low carbon emissions.
Megawatt The megawatt is equal to one million (106) watts.
Biomass Constituting the raw material of biofuels, biomass
includes managed woodland and agricultural crops. It has the
benefit of removing carbon from the atmosphere as it grows
but can compete for land and resources with food crops,
driving up food prices.
Carbon Capture Rather than releasing CO2 into the
atmosphere when burning fossil fuels, carbon capture schemes
aim to store it in natural underground containers such as
depleted oil and gas fields. The IEA estimates that 3,400
carbon capture and storage facilities will be required by 2050
to meet climate targets.
Carbon Neutral A process can be said to be carbon neutral
through the offsetting of unavoidable carbon emissions such
that emissions for the entire process are equal to zero. This
process is dependent on transparent and
rigorous measurement.
Cyber Crime Illegal activities undertaken for financial gain
which exploit vulnerabilities in the use of the internet and other
electronic systems.
Electric Vehicles Hybrid petrol-electric vehicles represent
a transitional technology towards fully electric transport
powered by electric or traction motors.
Load Shifting A principal demand-side management goal, load
shifting seeks to transfer demand for energy away from peak
usage periods to off-peak periods.
39
The Future of Energy
Peak Demand The period of greatest demand on an energy
system. This period is often short lived and can be mitigated
by only small alterations to consumer energy usage patterns.
Renewable Energy (renewables) This refers to new
renewables such as wind, solar, wave, tidal, geothermal,
biomass and hydroelectric power. 16% of world energy
consumption comes from traditional renewable biomass
(e.g. wood).
Smart Grid Intelligent electrical grid which can predict and
respond to the behaviour and actions of all electric power
users connected to it – suppliers, consumers and those that
do both.
Smart Meters Designed to provide customers with real time
information on energy consumption, smart meters have a
considerable range of specifications. The key differentiator
is whether the meter has data storage and two-way
communications capabilities.
Solar Energy Solar powered electrical generation includes the
use of use of photovoltaic panels and solar thermal collectors
to harness energy from the sun.
Wind Energy Kinetic energy present in wind motion that can
be converted to mechanical energy for driving pumps, mills,
and electric power
10
10
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