Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal Master of Science Thesis Stockholm 2008

Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal Master of Science Thesis Stockholm 2008
Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal
PUSHKAR K. SRIVASTAV
Master of Science Thesis
Stockholm 2008
Pushkar K. Srivastav
Clean Energy Scenario for Nepal
Supervisor & Examiner:
RONALD WENNERSTEN
Master of Science Thesis
STOCKHOLM 2008
TRITA-IM 2008:29
ISSN 1402-7615
Industrial Ecology,
Royal Institute of Technology
www.ima.kth.se
"Scenarios are a tool for helping us to take a long view in a world of great uncertainty.
The name comes from the theatrical term "scenario" – the script for a film or play.
Scenarios are stories about the way the world might turn out tomorrow, stories that
can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our present environment.
They form a method for articulating the different pathways that might exist for you
tomorrow, and finding your appropriate movements down each of those possible
paths. Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of
how they might turn out.”
Definition of scenario given by Peter Schwartz in
his book "The Art of the Long View" (1991)
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Abstract
The focus of this study was to develop energy futures under different growth
conditions in Nepal for 2050 and describes how the sustainable energy supply can be
made by using backcasting method to develop scenarios.The major distinguishing
characteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely to
happen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It involves working
backwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order to
determine the physical feasibility of the futures and what policy measures would be
required to reach that point. Typically backcasting is applied on long-term complex
issues, involving many aspects of society as well as technological innovations and
change. Furthermore in the long run, though, discontinuities are likely to occur and
should even be deliberately sought in some cases. Under these circumstances a
backcasting approach is an interesting alternative. With these reasons, this study
uses the same method to develop scenarios. The future pictures developed by
backcasting approach are self-fulfilling, this study concludes two of three future
pictures are satisfying the aim of the study.
There are three scenarios namely, the high growth (HG), the medium growth (MG)
and the business as usual (BAU) scenario developed in this study for year 2050.
These scenarios are developed on the basis of future population and economic
growth. The HG scenario considers highest economic growth rate of 9% while MG
and BAU scenario considers the growth rate of 6% and 4% respectively. The BAU
and MG scenario with 809, 1460 million GJ of energy demand respectively, meet the
aim of the study (i.e. to meet the future energy demand by renewable energy
resources in sustainable manner) while the HG scenario with energy demand of
4300 million GJ unable to meet its energy demand by sustainable energy resources
available in the country.
The energy crisis in Nepal is a major challenge for the current and future growth of
the country. The aim of the study is to describe how to establish the sustainable
energy system under different growth scenarios, Nepal may have by 2050.The urgent
needs in Nepal’s energy sector are ; to reduce the country’s energy dependency, to
use the resources efficiently and in a sustainable way and to provide the modern
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energy system on equitable basis. These needs can only be fulfilled with the
sustainable use of renewable energy resources, which is sufficient in the country.
The scenarios developed in the study are describing how these resources fulfilling
the future energy demand and how the demand can be reduced with the application
of appropriate technology.
The gap of energy use significantly varies across the different strata of population;
the study eliminates this gap by allocating energy on equitable basis. Nepal has one
of the lowest per-capita energy consumptions in the world; to know the level of percapita energy consumption, this study estimates the same for each scenarios
developed in this study.
Several measures and technologies and their potential are presented in the study (to
decrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) and these measures
are a reality today or will be in the near future. For example the use of efficient
cooking stove saves the fuelwood, passive building design reduces the heating and
lighting requirements, and these technologies are already in practice. These
measures have to be adopted in order to meet the demand by sustainable energy
supply. Further these measures are fulfilling the objective of providing the clean
energy to all. In all scenario the energy demand have been projected, afterward final
(reduced) energy demand calculated by considering measures and technologies for
reduction in energy use. This study primarily considers the measures and
technologies to reduce the energy demand in residential sector, which is the highest
energy consuming sector. Based on the final demand the sustainable energy supply
has been proposed for all scenarios. The scenarios are presented with three possible
alternatives for economic and population growth. The energy demand and supply
situation in each scenario tells whether the sustainable energy supply is possible or
not. Rather than comparison, these scenarios present the energy supply and demand
situation under the conditions they developed.
The three scenarios developed in this study are not exhausting the possible solutions
for sustainable energy supply in Nepal. The technologies and measures and the
futures are not evaluated from the cost perspective. This means the study does not
estimates, how much investment is required to realise these pictures hence it doesn’t
answer whether they are feasible from cost perspective or even desirable. The study
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also leaves out other perspectives like emissions reductions, earning through clean
development mechanism (CDM) etc.
The purpose to present different energy-futures of Nepal is to encourage and
stimulate stakeholders, policymakers and the citizens to take an active interest and to
start making the changes needed that leads to sustainable energy society.
The energy-futures show that together with the economic and population growth, the
energy use in future will increase as well. This is the reason for highest energy
demand in the scenario which considers highest economic growth and this demand
cannot be fulfilled by the renewable energy sources unless the technological
breakthrough in future. So high growth scenario does not satisfy the aim of the study;
however rest of the two scenarios are well in line with the aim and objectives of the
study.
The path to the presented energy-futures; the final step in the backcasting approach
has been left out in this study. The reason is due to, that requires further analysis of
the energy-futures from several other perspectives as well as analysis over decision
making and planning processes and involvement of different stakeholders. However
the presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures and
decisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments are needed.
The aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but the energy
futures that satisfy the objective of establishing the sustainable energy system in
Nepal. The renewable energy resources and the related technologies are mainly
considered to fulfill the future energy demand, which is the aim of the study. Finally,
this study involves high degree of uncertainty due to fact that future is unknown and
the uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made.
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Preface
It was a great learning experience for me to working on this thesis at Division of
Ecology of Royal Institute of Technology (KTH). Being worked as energy
professional, I was interested to evolve and shape energy future of my country.
Thanks to Ronald Wennersten my supervisor for his valuable suggestions and
support, in choosing my thesis topic and giving very good ideas, at all sharing his
knowledge and experience.
I am very appreciative to Tatiana Spitsyna who helped me in preparation of my thesis
work. I would like to thank her for continual support during this work, for her frequent
feedback and remarks, for the frequent discussion we had and for helping me when
the problems come across during this works. Without her this thesis work would not
have been in this shape.
My great thanks to Nils Brandt and Kosta Wallin to provide me the workplace and to
allow me to access the facilities at the Division of Industrial Ecology. Also I am
thankful to Karin Orve helping me to register for thesis work in this division.
I am always interested to learn new things, so I have selected this topic of future
study. It helps me to learn the new subjects about scenario development,
sustainability and energy backcasting and forecasting method. I feel these subjects
are really helpful to broaden my knowledge and for my professional career in energy
field.
I thank to my wife Shipra for her continuous help and support during this period. I
never forget this period for getting an in precious gift in my life, my son Ojas. I really
feel proud to become a father.
Finally I would like to dedicate this thesis to my mother who always supports me for
my entire life.
Stockholm, July, 2008
Pushkar Kumar Srivastav
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Table of contents
1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ........................................................................................................1
1.2.1 Aim ..............................................................................................................3
1.2.2 Objectives ....................................................................................................4
1.3 System boundaries ............................................................................................4
1.4 Data ...................................................................................................................5
1.5 Policy and Programs for the Energy Sector in Nepal .........................................6
1.5.1 Millennium Development Goals and Nepal ..................................................6
1.5.2 Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN) ..................................6
1.5.3 Water Resources Strategy (WRS) & National Water Plan (NWP) ...............7
1.5.4 Hydropower Development Policy, 2001 .......................................................7
1.5.5 The Tenth plan (2002 – 2007). ....................................................................7
1.5.6 Perspective Energy Plan (PEP) (1991-2017) ..............................................8
1.5.7 The Rural Energy Development Programme (REDP)..................................8
1.5.8 The Biogas Support Program ......................................................................8
1.5.9 Nepal Electricity Authority ............................................................................9
1.5.10 Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) ...........................................9
2 Methodology....................................................................................... 11
2.1 The Study’s Methodology................................................................................. 11
2.2 The Model for Scenario Development ..............................................................12
2.3 Determinants of energy demand ...................................................................... 13
2.4 Forecasting the future energy demand ............................................................14
2.5 General assumptions and limitations ............................................................... 16
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3 Present Situation’s Description........................................................... 17
3.1 Nepal’s demography ........................................................................................ 17
3.2 Energy flow as for the year 2005 ..................................................................... 18
3.2.1 The Energy Supply .................................................................................... 18
3.2.1.1 Traditional Energy Sources ................................................................. 19
3.2.1.2 Commercial Energy Sources .............................................................. 20
3.2.1.3 Alternate Energy Sources ................................................................... 20
3.2.2 The Energy Consumption .......................................................................... 21
3.3 Trend Analysis in per capita energy consumption ............................................ 21
4 Scenario Development for 2050 ......................................................... 25
4.1 Activity levels ................................................................................................... 25
4.1.1 Population Development until 2050 ........................................................... 25
4.1.1.1 Population trends in Nepal until 2050.................................................. 25
4.1.1.2 Population projections by areas until 2050.......................................... 26
4.1.1.3 Rural population projections by ecological regions ............................. 27
4.1.2 GDP Development until 2050 ....................................................................28
4.2 Estimation of the key variables for the scenarios to be developed ................... 29
4.3 Energy needs in different scenarios until 2050 ................................................ 30
4.3.1 Residential sector energy demand ............................................................ 30
4.3.2 Transport sector energy demand ............................................................... 31
4.3.3 Industrial sector energy demand ...............................................................31
4.3.4 Commercial sector energy demand ........................................................... 31
4.3.5 Agriculture sector energy demand ............................................................. 32
4.3.6 Summary of the total energy demand sector wise ..................................... 32
4.3.7 If the fossil fuels are included in energy supply 2050................................. 33
4.3.8 The inefficient use of biomass in residential sector ................................... 34
4.4 Future Energy Access in Nepal ........................................................................ 35
4.4.1 The challenges in Nepal’s energy sector ................................................... 35
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4.4.2 The energy and environment in context of Nepal ...................................... 36
4.4.3 Social aspects of energy in Nepal..............................................................36
4.4.4 Energy and Economics .............................................................................. 37
4.4.5 Potential of renewable fuels and their sustainability .................................. 37
4.4.5.1 The hydropower potential in Nepal ..................................................... 37
4.4.5.2 Biomass .............................................................................................. 41
4.4.5.3 Biofuels ............................................................................................... 43
4.4.5.4 Solar Potential ..................................................................................... 49
4.4.5.5 The Wind Energy Potential ................................................................. 51
4.4.5.6 Other energy resources ......................................................................53
4.4.5.7 Summary of the potential of renewable energy in Nepal ..................... 53
4.4.6 The sustainability matrix for Renewable Energy Technologies ................. 53
4.4.7 The application and priority matrix of Renewable Energy Technologies.... 55
5 Results ............................................................................................... 57
5.1 The 2050- BAU Scenario ................................................................................. 58
5.2 The 2050-MG Scenario .................................................................................... 60
5.3 The 2050-HG Scenario .................................................................................... 63
6 Discussion .......................................................................................... 67
7 Conclusion & Recommendations ....................................................... 73
8 References ......................................................................................... 75
9 Annexes ............................................................................................. 79
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List of figures
Figure 1 : Schematic representation of methodological framework ........................... 13
Figure 2: Change in ``energy consumption/population'' and ``GDP/population'' .
in 29 countries and 2 regions .................................................................... 15
Figure 3: Map of Nepal .............................................................................................. 17
Figure 4: Trend in per capita energy consumption.....................................................22
Figure 5: World’s and Nepal’s energy consumption per capita .................................. 23
Figure 6: Trend in Per Capita Energy Consumption by Fuel Type ............................ 23
Figure 7: Population Projection Urban / Rural .......................................................... 27
Figure 8: Rural Population Projection by Ecological Regions .................................... 28
Figure 9: Energy demand sector wise ....................................................................... 33
Figure 10: Amount of fossil fuel required sector wise in different scenarios .............. 34
Figure 11: Biogas Digester ........................................................................................ 44
Figure 12: Cooking on biogas fueled stove................................................................ 44
Figure 13: Garbage Collection by Chain Dozer .........................................................45
Figure 14: Garbage Unloading by Compacter ...........................................................45
Figure 15: Living Fences (Jatropha curcas L.) ............
....................................47
Figure 16: Mechanised Oil Expeller ........................................................................... 47
Figure 17: Solar technologies in Nepal ...................................................................... 49
Figure 18: Wind Energy in Nepal ............................................................................... 52
Figure 19: Renewables across sectors in 2050- BAU Scenario ................................ 59
Figure 20: Percentage Share of renewables in total energy supply
.
.
in 2050- BAU Scenario, ............................................................................ 60
Figure 21: Share of renewables across sectors in 2050- MG Scenario ..................... 62
Figure 22: Percentage share of renewables in total energy supply
.
in 2050- MG Scenario .............................................................................. 62
Figure 23: Share of renewables across sectors in 2050-HG ..................................... 64
Figure 24: Percentage share of renewables in total energy supply
.
.
in 2050-HG Scenario ............................................................................... 65
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List of tables
Table 1: Energy supply Nepal, 2005 .......................................................................... 19
Table 2: Energy Consumption Nepal, 2005 .............................................................. 21
Table 3: Population growth rate ................................................................................. 26
Table 4: Population Projection Urban / Rural
........................................... 26
Table 5: Rural Population Projection by Ecological Regions ..................................... 27
Table 6: GDP growth rates and estimated GDP ........................................................ 29
Table 7: GDP, Population and Energy Consumption in 3 different scenarios ........... 29
Table 8: Total residential energy demand by areas, ecological regions and end use 31
Table 9: Energy demand sector wise......................................................................... 32
Table 10: Summary of Economic Hydroelectric Development Opportunities ............. 40
Table 11. Fuel wood balance in Nepal, 2003/04 ........................................................42
Table 12: Potential of Renewable Fuels in different regions in Nepal ........................ 53
Table 13: Various factors of sustainability ................................................................ 54
Table 14: Sustainability matrix of various Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) . 54
Table 15: Renewable Energy technologies (RETs) for different sector for different
.
purposes ..................................................................................................... 55
Table 16: Priority Matrix for the resources allocation across sectors ......................... 56
Table 17: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- BAU scenario ................................ 58
Table 18: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-BAUscenario ....... 58
Table 19: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- MG scenario .................................. 60
Table 20: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-MG scenario ........ 62
Table 21: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- HG scenario .................................. 63
Table 22: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-HG scenario ........ 63
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Acronyms
AEPC
APP
BAU
BSP-Nepal
CBS
CDM
CHP
DHM
ECCA
ESAP
FUG
GDP
GJ
GoN
GWh
HG
INGO
INPS
IPCC
IPP
IWRM
kW
kwh
LPG
MDGs
MG
MOF
MWh
NEA
NGO
NPC
NWP
REDP
RET
SDAN
SNV/N
toe
UNDP
WECS
WRS
WWF
Environmental Camps for Conservation Awareness
Agriculture Perspective Plan
Business -as- Usual
Biogas Sector Partnership-Nepal
Central Bureau of Statistics
Clean Development Mechanism
Combined Heat & Power
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology
Environmental Camps for Conservation Awareness
Energy Sector Assistance Programme
Forest Users Group
Gross Domestic Product
Gigajoule
Government of Nepal
Gigawatt Hour
High Growth
International Non-Governmental Organization
Integrated Nepal Power System
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Independent Power Producers
Integrated Water Resource Management
Kilowatt
kilowatt-hour
Liquefied petroleum gas
Millennium Development Goals
Medium Growth
Ministry of Finance
Megawatt Hours
Nepal Electricity Authority
Non Governmental Organization
National Planning Commission, Nepal
National Water Plan
Rural Energy Development Programme
Renewable Energy Technology
Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal
Netherlands Development Organization in Nepal
tones of oil equivalent
United Nations Development Programme
Water & Energy Commission Secretariat
Water Resources Strategy
World Wildlife Fund
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Energy poverty is endemic among all the developing nations. The developing country
like Nepal is also facing acute energy crisis and the situation becoming bad to worst day
by day. Due to huge gap in energy supply and demand, the situation will not improve at
least for next decade instead of already ongoing hydropower projects .The reasons are
long time required to develop hydropower projects and the total capacity of these
ongoing projects is still insufficient to meet the ever increasing future energy demand.
So there is further increased level of gap upon the completion of these projects due to
economic and population growth of the country.”The gap between the supply and
demand both in terms of capacity and energy was so huge that NEA had no option but
to enforce system wide Load shedding” [1]. The reasons behind the national energy
crisis are lack of investment in energy sector, lack of capability of planner, lack of
commitment from government side and the decade long unstable political situation of the
country.
Nepal has huge renewable energy resources1, but most of the rural populations rely on
the traditional use of biomass. The reason is unavailability of modern energy and its
choices which causes increasing rate of deforestation and negative impact on health
due to indoor pollutions. Furthermore to collect the traditional fuel the poor households
daily spend long hours on cooking and household chores, this reflects to lost
opportunities for self-improvement and family well-being through the betterment of social
and economic status.
The current energy crisis in the country with huge renewable energy potential shows the
chronic imbalance between energy consumption and energy resource endowment. At
present only around 1.5% (613.5 MW) of feasible hydropower potential (32000 MW) has
been developed yet and around 40 percent of the total population has some form of
access to electricity [6].
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Theoretical hydropower potential is around 83000 MW, average solar insolation is about 4.5 kWh/m2/day
with the average sunshine hours is about 6.8 hours and 300 sunny days in a year, [6].
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This thesis work has been proposed to address the problems in energy sector of Nepal.
It is based on an approach that requires the total transformation in a way of using and
creating energy by shifting to the sustainable use of renewable resources that are
sufficient and freely available. In addition these resources have minimal negative
impacts, both in its production and consumption, on human health and the environment,
and that can be supplied continuously to future generations.
This study develops three scenarios based on the different population and economic
perspectives by 2050.The energy backcasting method2 is used to develop the scenarios.
All these scenarios with the different energy paths ultimately lead to the future energy
goal set by the study (i.e. the aim of the study in section 1.2.1).
The rational of developing long term scenarios with the fact that to achieve national
energy goal for the total transformation of energy sector, one has to plan from long term
perspective. The reason is an energy infrastructure takes time to build and has long
useful life. Further new energy technologies take time to develop and even longer time
to reach their maximum market share. So the analysis that seeks to tackle energy issues
needs to look ahead at least to the next thirty to fifty years. Such a long term perspective
has inherent uncertainty and also has limitation due to our knowledge. But do we leave
the development in its natural trend? Or should we try to change for the betterment of
the future. Even though future is by definition unknown and cannot be predicted but at
the same time it is not something predetermined. How it unfolds is to some extent
determined by the course of actions we decide to take.
The rational of using energy backcasting with the fact that for the substantial long-term
changes in energy sector, soft energy path in form of energy backcasting method is
mostly used. The backcasting analysis involves 'working backwards' from a particular
future end-point to the present to determine what measures would be required to reach
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The Backcasting method starts with a specific future outcome and then works backwards to the present
conditions and it can be divided in four stages. Stage 1 means identification of the problem in the form of
present situation description and trend analysis and stage 2 is to decide those criteria and objectives for
sustainability. In stages 3 the future pictures prepared and in stages four that” the road there” be analyzed
(illustration: Johan Swahn) [13].
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that future. The results are drawn from the images of the future states (Scenarios) where
the energy supply and demand satisfies the requirement of sustainability.
There are several scenarios in the field of energy and environment have been
developed by different groups such as Shell’s Scenarios, Stockholm Environment
Institute - Global Scenario Group (SPG), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Scenario etc. In order to understand the characterization of scenario on the basis
of their aim, the time horizon considered, the construction process and the type of tools
used (qualitative vs. quantitative), their work
have been reviewed to develop the
scenarios in this study.
1.2.1 Aim
The aim of the study is “to meet the future energy demand by renewable energy
resources in a sustainable manner.”
This thesis work is directed towards to build the sustainable energy futures for Nepal.
The aim is to investigate; will it be possible to meet the energy demand by 2050 in a
sustainable way? For this three scenarios are developed; the business as usual (BAU),
medium growth (MG) and high growth (HG) based on the different economic and
population development. The key focus is to create future pictures with the aid of
scenario methodology to meet future energy demand by renewable energy resources.
The future pictures will show the possible energy future of Nepal that can be
implemented on the sustainable basis. The scenario includes the assessment of future
energy demand in different sectors (e.g. energy demand in residential, transport,
industrial, commercial and agriculture sector until 2050), potential of renewable energy
resources (e.g. biomass, solar, wind, hydropower) that can be exploited with the help of
appropriate renewable energy technologies (e.g. solar photovoltaic, micro hydro, biogas
etc) to fulfill the future energy demand.
In this study, the future pictures are presented in the form of three scenarios that divides
itself on different points but they all directed toward the aim of the study.
The purpose of the study is to present various future pictures to stimulate entrepreneurs,
decision-makers, donors and individual society citizens to take an active interest and to
implement those changes to develop sustainable energy society in Nepal.
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1.2.2 Objectives
The objectives are formulated on the basis of ways to achieve the aim. Focus lies on
local energy resources that can be exploited in order to meet the energy demand in
sustainable manner
The objectives to meet the aim of the study are:
•
To explore the appropriate options of renewable energy technology (RET) to
exploit the local energy resources in sustainable way.
•
To provide sustainable energy solutions to improve the quality of life of the rural
people.
•
To ensure equitable, decentralized availability and development of sustainable
energy technologies, in order to reduce the unsustainable use of energy
resources.
•
To improve energy security by promoting clean, safe and sustainable energy
resources as a substitute for imported fossil fuels
1.3 System boundaries
Defining the boundaries is an important step since it determines which should be studied
and which should not. Determining system boundaries is done in the dimension of space
and time.
Space: this dimension bounds the geographic area under study. The geographic area
that is considered for this study is the physical spatial boundary of the country Nepal.
Time: this dimension determines the period for study. The study period considered for
this study is around 50 years (from 2005 to 2050). Year 2005 is the reference year for
this study because latter period data is not available.
Following parameters have been considered to meet the aim of the study.
I)
The future energy demand by 2050.
II)
The potential of renewable energy resources in future.
III)
The renewable energy technologies (RETs) to meet the energy demand by
renewable energy sources
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1.4 Data
The data used in this study are collected from the various sources like; WECS, CBS,
MOF, UN etc. These sources are mainly involved in maintaining and updating the data
of their interest. Their data are primarily based on well-established and institutionalized
methodologies and are therefore considered reliable.
Economy related data required for the study is obtained from the Economic Survey
report published by Ministry of Finance (MoF), Government of Nepal. The data related to
demographic, economy and environment is taken from the statistical year book which is
periodically published by Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), Government of Nepal. The
data related to energy is obtained from various reports of Water and Energy
Commission Secretariat (WECS)/Nepal which is responsible for maintaining and
updating the energy related data. The data of the population is taken from United
Nation’s report on population projection (i.e. 2007 Revision Population Database). The
energy balance data starting from 1980 is available but the consistent economic data is
available only for the period of 1995–2005, so for the trend analysis data for this period
is used. Also, due to changes in assumptions and other variables, economic data prior
to 1995 could not be used in this study. Therefore, forecasting of energy demand for the
proposed model is based on available data of energy and economy for the period 1995–
2005.
The GDP data at producer price and at constant price (at 1994/95 price) are used in this
study. The population growth data for mid variant (most likely growth rate) is used in this
study. The Population Division of the United Nation revises and updates the estimates
and projections of population in every two years, so future revision and updating will
affect the results of similar type study. However, the methodology introduced in the
study is correct so further studies can use the same methodology to obtain a useful
results if the data on different parameters and in different time are gathered. Wherever
data is not available in required form for the study, assumption and calculation is made
to use them. Due to the lack of complete set of data some data are estimated.
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1.5 Policy and Programs for the Energy Sector in Nepal
1.5.1 Millennium Development Goals and Nepal
The Millennium Summit of United Nation has drawn out the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) from the Millennium Declaration in September 2000. These goals are
outlined the development priorities to be achieved by 2015. Since Nepal has endorsed
the Millennium Declaration and has been committed to achieving the MDGs, it is
necessary to discuss about MDGs roles in achieving the future development. Among
eight MDGs, most important goal is to halve extreme poverty in the developing world
by 2015 and to achieve this there is urgent need to address both “human poverty”
(deprivation of basic social needs) and “income poverty” (lack of employment and
economic opportunities) [7]. To eradicate both types poverty, the role of energy must be
required regarding its accessibility, affordability and choice. During the MDG needs
assessment process, three major challenges have been identified in Nepal’s energy
sector (i.e. limited access of renewable energy services in rural areas, productive use of
renewable energy in rural areas and the sustainable development of renewable energy
services).
1.5.2 Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN)
The Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN) has been approved by the
cabinet on 14th July 2003. It defines sustainable development for Nepal as "The
overarching goal of sustainable development in Nepal is to expedite a process that
provides to its citizens and successive generations at least the basic means of
livelihoods with the broadest of opportunities in the field of social, economic, political,
cultural and ecological aspects of their lives" . The sectoral definition of sustainable
development in the field of energy is given as” meeting the domestic and industrial
needs of both rural and urban populations without causing environmental degradation
and without depleting the country's forests”. It is further said that the country's own
renewable energy sources must gradually decrease the dependence on imported fossil
fuel and biomass from forests. Similarly, the sectoral definition of sustainable
development in the field of hydropower is given as …" generation of sufficient power to
meet the electricity needs of all urban areas and rural areas where this is the least cost
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option" [12].The development of renewable energy resources with people's participation
is identified as key activity to meet the sectoral objectives of the energy sector of Nepal
1.5.3 Water Resources Strategy (WRS) & National Water Plan (NWP)
In year 2005 Government of Nepal has approved The National Water Plan (NWP)
(planning period 2002- 2027) in order to exploit the huge water resources in Nepal. The
plan is developed by realising the fact that sustainable development of water resources
can significantly contribute to poverty alleviation and economic growth in Nepal. The
Water Plan was prepared to fulfill the objectives identified in Water Resources Strategy
(WRS) and includes short, medium and long-term action plans for the water resources
sector, including investments and human resource development. The targets have been
set up in each subsector and actions progammes have been defined to achieve them.
Some of the programmes in energy sub sector are development of cost-effective micro,
small and medium hydropower, enhancement of rural electrification, improvement of
power system planning, encouragement of private players in hydropower development
[21], [22].
1.5.4 Hydropower Development Policy, 2001
The Hydropower Development Policy has been approved in year 2001 to utilize the
huge hydropower resources for the economic growth of the country. One of the
objectives of this policy is to extend the rural electrification for the development of rural
economy. The mechanism for special investment in infrastructure development of rural
electrification has been defined such as provision of rural electrification fund, grants for
small and micro hydropower. To develop the hydropower in rural areas several
provisions have been made such as royalty exemption on rural electricity consumption,
loan for small and micro hydro power, delicensing of small hydropower. To encourage
the private player to develop large hydropower is also one of the main objectives of the
policy [5].
1.5.5 The Tenth plan (2002 – 2007).
The Tenth plan is the periodic five year plans of the government for the development
infrastructure of the country. It has specifically identified targets in renewable energy
technology, such as installation of additional 200,000 biogas plants, 10 MW of electricity
7
through small hydropower, 52,000 Solar Home System (SHS) with the capacity of 3.5
MW etc. The industrial energy management program, environment sector support
program, standard enhancement program, and monitoring of electricity consumption
have been given priority in this plan [12].
1.5.6 Perspective Energy Plan (PEP) (1991-2017)
The PEP was prepared by the National Planning Commission (NPC) with the support of
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to forecast Nepal’s medium term
energy development within a macroeconomic framework. It forecasts energy
consumption will increase from current 12 GJ (base year 1991) per capita to 17 GJ, 19
GJ, or 25 GJ per capita in 2017 depending on GDP growth at the ongoing trend in 1991
(5.4%), at medium growth (6.4%) or at high growth (8.1%) respectively. The study has
also tied expected energy sector investments in 2017 to the three economic growth
scenarios as well as per capita carbon release [10], [12].
1.5.7 The Rural Energy Development Programme (REDP)
The Rural Energy Development Programme (REDP), a joint initiative of the Government
of Nepal (GoN) and UNDP was started in August 1996. The objective of the programme
is to promote micro hydro schemes, solar, wind energy and biogas technologies in rural
areas.
Status: After the successful completion of phase I and II, the third phase REDP-III has
been extended until the end of 2009 with the expanded coverage areas. The REDP
project is a great success in promoting renewable energy technologies in rural areas [9].
1.5.8 The Biogas Support Program
Since long the Biogas Sector Partnership-Nepal (BSP-Nepal) has been playing the key
role to promote the biogas plants in rural Nepal. BSP-Nepal, a Non-Government
Organization (NGO), is executing the BSP-IV with the financial and technical support
from Netherlands Development Organization in Nepal (SNV/N).
8
Status: The BSP, Phase-IV (July 2003-June 2009) is being implemented after
successful completion of the first three phases with the target to install 200,000 biogas
plants in rural areas [2], [3].
1.5.9 Nepal Electricity Authority
The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), a state owned electric utility company, is mainly
responsible for the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in the country.
The urban centers of the country are electrified through the Integrated Nepal Power
System (INPS) of NEA while most of the rural areas are not connected with INPS. The
reason is high cost of transmission. So to increase the electricity access in rural areas,
NEA has Small Hydropower and Rural Electrification Department which is responsible
for the construction, operation and maintenance of small hydropower plants and
implementation of rural electrification programs in remote hilly regions. Recently the
Community Rural Electrification Program (year 2003/2004) has been started to increase
the coverage of electricity supply and to promote the local participation for sustainable
growth. Under this program consumers form the cooperative and take the responsibility
of managing, maintaining and expanding the rural distribution of electricity [1].
1.5.10 Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC)
The Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) was established in November 3, 1996
to popularize and promote the use of renewable energy technology to raise living
standards of the rural people of Nepal. AEPC with the collaboration with different donor
agencies and government implements several programs in renewable energy field such
as Renewable Energy Project (REP), Energy Sector Assistance Programme Phase II
(ESAP II) etc.
In spite of several plan and policy documents to promote renewable energy technology
(RET), neither of them got the official status in governments policy documents.
Furthermore these plans/ programs have neither been supported by any investment
program nor by commitment in specific requirements of the projects/ programs.
Nonetheless RET promotion gained attention in periodical five years plan as the various
targets set in the tenth plan (2002-2007). In order to promote the RET in rural areas,
Government of Nepal (GoN) is providing subsidies and incentives through its various
9
institutions and the mechanism for subsidy appeared to be very instrumental. The
projects, programs run by NGO, INGO and with the joint collaboration of GoN and donor
agencies; sustainability of the projects appeared to be major concern. There are typically
at three different levels where the issues of sustainability appear especially for rural
energy projects /programs [9].
At community Level: at this level major issues are; whether the community based
institutions created will sustain themselves or not after the project is completed, whether
the technologies set up can be expected to continue functioning with the revenues that
they are generating. These issues are particularly relevant as the programme scales up,
and starts to withdraw from older programme areas.
At the district level: at this level major issues are; how well are the projects /programs
governance system integrated with the government machinery and what can be
realistically expected with respect to internalization of projects/programs at the district
level which is really the hub of all activity.
At the programme level: There is the larger issue of financial sustainability/ self
sufficiency, i.e. whether now, or at foreseeable time in the future, projects/ programs can
be expected to continue as a government programme, without donor support.
The issues are the major impediments to promote RET in rural areas in spite of huge
potential.
10
2 METHODOLOGY
This thesis work is directed towards to build the sustainable energy futures of Nepal.
The alternative scenarios/future pictures are developed on the basis of energy demand
due to economic and population development, resource availability and technological
progress. This study uses both forecasting and backcasting approach. The forecasting
method is used to assess the future energy demand by 2050.The reason to adopt the
forecasting method is the availability of historical data of energy and economy of the
country. The backcasting method is used to establish the sustainable energy supply in
future. For this assessment of renewable energy resources and technologies (RETs) is
done on the various aspects of sustainability in context of Nepal.
To obtain the results an integrated energy-modelling framework is adopted in this study.
This model facilitates the creation and analysis of various scenarios of energy demand
and supply at the national level. The model also used for the analysis of technology
options for each category of resource as well as sectoral end use demand.
2.1 The Study’s Methodology
This study is based on the data collecting and synthesizing from different sources. The
study uses backcasting method to develop the scenarios. The stages for the
backcasting are:
Stage 1: How to see the today’s situation?
In this stage the description of present situation of energy flow is presented. This is
stage one of the proposed backcasting method described by Johan Swahn, [13].
Stage 2: Join the current development with the problem to see whether it solves?
In this stage effort is made to see if the current trend solves the problem. The problem is
to meet the increased energy demand in future (in year 2050) due to the population and
economic growth. In this study three developed scenarios; Business as Usual (BAU),
Medium Growth (MG) and High Growth (HG) are analysed with current to see whether
the formulated objectives are achieved.
11
Stage 3- How the solution can be made?
In this stage various possibilities to change the energy use and supply are presented.
These possibilities are the basis for the development of future pictures. The measures
suggest in this stage are presented the change level of energy use and supply.
The presentation of future pictures with changed level in energy use and supply is done
on the basis of how energy is supplied to meet the future energy demand.
Stage 4: How the solution can be implemented?
The fourth, and last, step is to analyse the possibilities to implement solutions (i.e. the
possible need for a breaking of trends) described in the images. This final steps of
backcasting method, lies outside this study although the path to future pictures can give
more or less clear views if decisions required, investments that must be made,
restructurings etc. The reason is, to lay down the future energy path requires further
analysis of the energy-futures from several other perspectives. Further the stakeholder
involvement required for decision making and planning process which is impossible due
to time and resource limitations. Therefore this study does not performed a complete
backcasting study, but merely conducted the third step and, to some extent, the first and
the second step.
2.2 The Model for Scenario Development
This study identifies the need of model for the backcasting of future energy supply.
Therefore a model is proposed after an extensive literature review about the model used
in various studies of similar kind. The proposed model examines the pathways for
optimal energy supply to meet the end use services in energy-consuming sectors (e.g.
agriculture, commercial, residential, industrial, and transport etc.) under various
scenarios.
The inputs of the model are the future energy demand, potential of energy resources
and the technological options in demand and supply side. The availability and timeline of
possible technological options (existing and futuristic for both demand and supply side)
and their technological characterization is evolved on the basis of an extensive literature
12
review. These inputs are provided to the model to obtain the results over the study. The
results obtained from the model provide the following information.
•
Level of uptake of total energy resources.
•
Distribution of the energy resources across the consuming sectors.
•
The choice of technological options.
3
Figure 1 : Schematic representation of methodological framework
2.3 Determinants of energy demand
The energy demand is estimated by considering population and GDP developments are
the key drivers of the future energy demand. Several research papers on energy
consumption, GDP and population have been published and it is generally accepted
3
Adopted from the report titled “National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030, The Energy and
Resources Institute, India “and modified according to requirement of this study.
13
that, per capita energy consumption increases as per capita GDP (standard of living)
increases [11].
The factors for energy consumption considered are:
a) Increasing population.
b) Improvement in living standards.
c) Development of scientific technologies.
d) Unique conditions in each individual country, i.e. energy-savings, industrial
structure, lifestyle, and so on.
These four factors are complex and interrelated appropriately, factor (b) would be shown
by per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (GDP/population). Both the factors (c) and
(d)
would
be
collectively
shown
by
GDP
energy
consumption
(energy
consumption/GDP), because the energy consumption for each 1$ of GDP shows the
amount of energy consumption for each product of added value [11].
Now the energy consumption can be expressed by using these factors as:
(1)
Therefore, if these three factors [factor (a): population, factor (b): GDP/population, factor
(c) (d): energy consumption/GDP] are clarified, the energy consumption can be
deduced.
2.4 Forecasting the future energy demand
The basis for forecasting the future energy demand is the relation between per capita
energy consumption and per capita GDP for the 20 year period, 1970±1990, shown in
the figure 2. These figures are drawn from 29 countries and 2 regions (Latin America
and Africa). These 29 countries are the major energy consumers excluding Eastern
Europe and the former Soviet Union. Emphasizing the period from the 1980s, it is shown
to be linear by individual countries.
14
Figure 2: Change in ``energy consumption/population'' and ``GDP/population'' in 29 countries and
2 regions, (Source: Shiro K at el. (2000), [11])
From the figure it can be concluded that many countries have good correlations between
per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP for the 10 years, 1983 -1992.
Therefore following relation can be predicted [11].
(2)
Where ∆ represents the amount of difference, function f is a primary expression
including the constant term.
Therefore, equation (1) can be shown as follows.
15
The estimation of future energy demand based on above mentioned method. For the
past ten years (year 1995-2005) a recurrence curve is drawn against energy
consumption per capita and GDP per capita. The relation between Energy consumption
/Population and GDP / Population can be got from the regression equation in the form of
y= ax+b of the recurrence curve.
The population projection presented by the United Nations is used for the period of 2005
– 2050. Three different GDP growth rates (current, Medium and High) from year 2005 to
2050 are decided and accordingly GDPs are estimated. Then the per capita GDP is
calculated. The estimate of per capita energy consumption is obtained by the recurrence
line. Then the estimate of the whole energy consumption (demand) is calculated from
the equation (3).
The growth in five major sectors (agriculture, commercial, residential, industrial, and
transport) is considered as the economic growth of the country. Therefore the future
energy demand is divided among these sectors, based on their share in total energy
consumption in past years. Based on the available information from different sources the
resource availability is assessed.
2.5 General assumptions and limitations
The data used in this study is the secondary data collected from different sources such
as, from journal, articles, and reports and internet. Due to unavailability of extensive data
some assumptions are made to perform the calculations but effort is to keep its
relevance as much as possible with the actual condition.
In the analysis and discussions mainly the sustainability in using renewable energy
resources and technologies are taking into the account for the clean energy scenario.
Other aspects such as emission reduction, cost and investment required and the way to
realise scenario is left out in this study due to the time and resource limitations (see
section 2.1, stage 4 of backcasting). Since the past data available on primary energy
consumption and supply (period 1995-2005 from source [6]), the estimation is based on
the primary energy demand and supply. The estimation of sectoral energy demand is
based on their share in total energy consumption in past. The detailed assessment of
sectoral energy demand such as projection of households, vehicles, commercial and
industrial establishments etc lies outside of this study, because of the scarcity of data.
16
3 PRESENT SITUATION’S DESCRIPTION
3.1 Nepal’s demography
Nepal is landlocked country situated between the two of the most populous countries of
the world, India in the east, south, west and China in the north. The country with the total
area of 147,181 sq Km roughly in rectangular shape is stretching 885 Km from east to
west and between 145 to 241 Km from north to south. The country has varied ecological
zones and the wide range of biological and cultural habitats because of tremendous
variation in altitude relatively short distance with highest peak Himalayas in the north
and the tropical plans in south within a mean width of 193 Km [14].
There are three distinct ecological regions the mountain, hill and the plain running from
the North to the South respectively and form three parallel belts along the length of the
country [15]. The mountain region (Called Parbat in Nepali) is situated at 4,000 meters
or more above sea level consists of a large number of snow covered mountains
including Mount Everest (8848 meters) and covers about 15% of the total area of the
Figure 3: Map of Nepal, (Source: map of Nepal, [17])
country of which only 2% is suitable for cultivation. The region is sparsely populated and
characterized by inclement climatic and rugged topographic conditions, and human
habitation and economic activities are extremely limited and arduous.
17
The hill region (called Pahar in Nepali) with the altitude between 1,000 and 4,000 meters
lies in the middle part of the country. The higher elevations (above 2,500 meters) in the
region were sparsely populated because of physiographic and climatic difficulties, but
the lower hills and valleys were densely settled. This region with the 68% of total land
areas comprises of several attractive peaks, fertile valleys and basins including the
densely populated Katmandu (the capital city) and Pokhara valleys. About 46% of the
population resides in this region.
The plain region (called Madhesh in Nepali) with the altitude varying from 300 meters to
about 1000 meters has entirely different topography in contrast to the mountain and hill
regions. This is a lowland tropical and subtropical belt of flat, alluvial land stretching
along the Nepal-India border, and paralleling the hill Region. This region is becoming
Nepal's richest economic region because greater availability of plain and fertile land.
About 47% of total population resides in this region and the most of the industries are
established in this region.
The country with the diverse topography has almost all types of climatic zones of the
earth. The mean annual temperature is 15 degree Celsius, rainfall varies between 250
millimeters to 4000 millimeters and about 80% of the precipitation occurs during the
monsoon season (from June to September) [6]. The country with the diverse geography
has big opportunity for natural resource management for sustainable development.
3.2 Energy flow as for the year 2005
Energy in Nepal is predominated by traditional fuels such as fuel woods, agricultural
residues and animal dung etc. Most of the population resides in rural areas still rely on
inefficient use of traditional fuels. It is a big challenge to provide the sustainable energy
resources to population at large to fulfill their basic energy needs. The energy supply
and demand balance is presented in the annex A1.
3.2.1 The Energy Supply
In this report energy sources has been categorized in three broad categories. The basis
of categorisation is the modality of abstracting the inherent energy content from the
energy sources use [6].
18
1. Traditional energy sources include the fuel wood, animal and agricultural residues
which are used in traditionally way (direct combustion).
2. Commercial energy sources include fossil fuels (coal, petroleum products) and
electricity.
3. Alternative energy sources include new, renewable, and non-conventional forms
of energy such as micro hydro, solar power, wind power, biogas, briquettes etc.
Table 1 shows the energy supply from the various energy resources their quantity and
percentage share in year 2005. According to the table the primary energy supply is
369.787 Million GJ with the final energy supply of 367.394 million GJ. Out of total energy
supply traditional fuels are accounted for 322.105 million GJ, commercial fuels are
accounted for 433.34 million GJ and the renewable are accounted for 1.955 million GJ.
Table 1: Energy supply Nepal, 2005 (Source: [6])
in 000 GJ
Total Primary Energy
Fuel type
Traditional
Primary
supply ( Including export & Final Supply
Percentage
Production
Import)
share
(Including Losses)
322105
322105
322105
87.67%
Commercial
8828
45727
43334
11.79%
Renewable
1955
1955
1955
0.53%
Grand Total
332888
367394
100.00%
369787
3.2.1.1 Traditional Energy Sources
Traditional energy sources are major energy sources in Nepal. The reasons for
excessive reliance on traditional fuels are lack of other energy alternatives especially in
rural areas. The traditional use of biomass is characterized by the inefficient use of
biomass with high indoor pollution which causes health hazards. There are three types
of traditional energy sources.
(i)
The fuel wood is mainly derived from forest.
(ii)
The agricultural residues are derived from agricultural products such as paddy,
maize and sugarcane etc.
(iii)
The animal wastes mainly come from the livestock such as cattle and buffalo.
19
These sources of energy have a dominant role in the Nepalese energy system.
Fuelwood always have the greatest share in energy supply by the traditional energy
sources in past (see annex A2). In year 2005 around 28, 14 and 21 million GJ is
supplied by fuelwood, agriculture residues and animal dung respectively. The
percentage share is around 89% of fuelwood, 4% of agriculture residues and 7% of
animal dung in energy supply by the traditional energy sources (see Annex A1).
3.2.1.2 Commercial Energy Sources
Commercial energy includes fossil fuels and electricity. Fossil fuels are mainly imported
from India except small amount of low quality coal production in western part of the
country. Electricity is mainly produced from hydropower.
In year 2005 around 30, 6.4 and 6.6 million GJ energy is supplied by the petroleum
products, coal and electricity respectively. The percentage shares are 70% of petroleum
products, 15% coal and 15% electricity in energy supply by commercial sources.
3.2.1.3 Alternate Energy Sources
Alternative energy sources are solar, micro hydro, biogas and wind. These are the local
energy sources that can play vital role in providing the modern energy to the rural areas
in Nepal. Furthermore the development of alternative energy sources creates
employment in rural areas so the quality of the life of rural population will be improved.
Other benefits of utilizing alternative energy sources are reduction in GHG emission and
deforestation, substitution of imported fossil fuel etc.
The solar water heating systems are extensively used in urban centers especially in
capital city Kathmandu while the solar home systems (solar photovoltaic) are popular in
remote areas. The biogas from livestock is popular in rural areas for cooking purposes.
Electricity generation from micro hydro for local community in rural area is gaining
popularity due to the government support. Wind power is not developed yet due to lack
of knowledge and wind data
In year 2005 the energy supplied by renewables was around 1.9 million GJ with the
highest share of biogas (i.e. 99% of total renewable energy supply). The contribution of
20
other renewables is almost negligible in spite of huge potential but it is increasing in
recent years.
3.2.2 The Energy Consumption
The total energy consumption in Nepal is amounted 367 million GJ in year 2005.From
the table 2, it is found that residential sector is highest energy consuming sector with the
percentage share of 90% while rest of the sectors altogether have percentage share of
10% in total energy consumption.
Table 2: Energy Consumption Nepal, 2005, (Source: [6])
in 000 GJ
Sector/ Fuel
Traditional
Commercial
Renewable
Total
Percentage Share
317798
11815
1955
331568
90.28%
Industrial
2245
10516
0
12761
3.47%
Commercial
Residential
2049
3286
0
5335
1.45%
Transport
0
13894
0
13894
3.78%
Agriculture
0
3085
0
3085
0.84%
Others
Total
Percentage Share
13
599
0
612
0.17%
322105
87.71%
43195
11.76%
1955
0.53%
367255
100.00%
100.00%
The contribution by source type, the traditional energy sources has the highest share of
88% followed by commercial energy sources with the share of 12% and the little share
of 0.5% of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption (Table 2). The
maximum share of traditional energy sources in total energy consumption due to its
highest share (around 96%) in residential sector, the highest energy consuming sector.
The transport and agriculture sector’s energy consumption wholly fulfilled by the
petroleum products (commercial energy). The energy demand of commercial and
industrial sectors is mainly fulfilled by coal and electricity (commercial energy). The
others sector included the areas do not fall in five major energy consuming sectors and
these are the energy consumed in
street light, temples, mosques, church etc.
(see Annex A1).
3.3 Trend Analysis in per capita energy consumption
The trend analysis of per capita energy consumption in figure 4 shows the low growth
with declining trend after 2002 to 2005. The reason is the growing population meeting
21
their energy needs with fixed available energy resources .Other reasons are slower
economic growth period and low growth in energy sector. Nepal accounts for the lowest
share of commercial energy (around 500 kWh per capita per year) among all South
Asian countries [9]. In total population, around 40% (mainly in the urban areas and the
tarai region) use electricity out of which 7% use renewable energy sources like solar
power, biogas, micro-hydro etc. [9]. The reasons are lack of education, lack of
technology to exploit local energy resources in a sustainable manner.
0.33
0.32
TOE
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.30
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Figure 4: Trend in per capita energy consumption, period 1995-2005
(Source: own estimation based on the information in [6], [18] see Annex A4)
The comparison graph (figure 5) for the energy consumption per capita shows the huge
gap between the world average per capita energy consumption and Nepal’s per capita
energy consumption. This shows the energy poverty prevails in Nepal.
22
Figure 5: World’s and Nepal’s energy consumption per capita, period 1995-2005
(Source: own estimation based on the information in [6], [18], see Annex A4)
The trend analysis of fuel share in per capita energy consumption in figure 6 shows the
dominant share of traditional fuel such as fuelwood, agriculture residue and animal
waste. Most of the population still depends on the biomass and they traditionally use
(direct combustion) the biomass for cooking and heating purpose.
The reason for the dominating share of biomass is low access to electricity and to
commercial energy sources in the rural areas (about 5%), where the majority of the
population resides. The per capita energy consumption is slowly increasing and is
fluctuating around 13.5 GJ.
14.00
12.00
GJ/Capita
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Traditional Biomass
Petroleum Products
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
Figure 6: Trend in Per Capita Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, period 1995-2005
(Source: own estimation based on the information in [6], [18], see Annex A5)
23
24
4 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR 2050
This chapter presents the different fundamental conditions taking into consideration to
develop future scenarios for 2050. Three developed scenarios are; Business as Usual
(BAU), Medium Growth (MG) and High Growth (HG) scenario. These scenarios are
divided on the basis of different GDP and population growths
Section 4.1 presents the various activity levels that influence the energy use in different
scenarios. The population growth and economic development are considered the main
drivers of energy use in different scenarios.
Section 4.2 presents the estimated value of the key variables for the scenario
development.
The sector specific information is presented in section 4.3 where the future energy need
for three scenarios (BAU, MG and HG) is calculated.
Section 4.4 discusses the possible energy access, Nepal has to use in order to meet
their energy need in year 2050.
4.1 Activity levels
4.1.1 Population Development until 2050
4.1.1.1 Population trends in Nepal until 2050
The projection of population is essential to derive the future energy demand. This
section presents the population growth and projection data for the study period 20052050. The latest updated population data is used in this study (World Urbanization
Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database source: [18]).
Table 3 presents the population growth rates for different periods. One can see in the
table that there is negative growth in rural population while there is continuous positive
growth in urban population in later years. The growth in urban population is major
concern for the developing countries like Nepal. Lack of opportunities and lack of basic
facilities in rural areas are the main causes for migration of rural population to urban
25
areas. How to accommodate such a huge population in urban areas is a big question in
future.
Table 3: Population growth rate, period 2005-2005, (Source: [18])
Period
2005-
2010-
2015-
2020-
2025-
2030-
2035-
2040-
2045-
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
1.97
1.88
1.76
1.6
1.43
1.29
1.16
1.02
0.88
1.38
1.2
0.99
0.73
0.46
0.2
-0.06
-0.32
-0.61
4.87
4.67
4.42
4.13
3.83
3.56
3.3
3.03
2.75
Average annual
growth rate (%)
Rural annual
growth rate (%)
Urban annual
growth rate (%)
4.1.1.2 Population projections by areas until 2050
In Nepal the energy demand of the urban areas mainly catered by the large hydropower
plants through INPS, while the rural areas do not have grid connectivity due to
economical reasons but they are endowed with local energy resources that could be
sufficient to meet the local energy demand. Therefore it is essential to present rural and
urban population projection data to assess the energy demand of rural and urban
residential sector. Table 4 presents the projected rural, urban and total population,
based on the growth rates presented in table 3.
Table 4: Population Projection Urban / Rural period 2005-2050, (Source: own estimation on the
basis of information in [18], see Annex B2)
in million
Year
Rural Population
2005
22.79
2010
24.40
2015
25.90
2020
27.21
2025
28.22
2030
28.88
2035
29.16
2040
29.08
2045
28.62
2050
27.75
Urban Population
4.24
5.40
6.81
8.48
10.42
12.61
15.06
17.78
20.68
23.75
Total Population
27.03
29.80
32.71
35.69
38.64
41.48
44.23
46.86
49.29
51.50
Figure 7 shows the changing composition of rural and urban population in different
periods. It further shows that in year 2005, 90% of the total population is rural which
decreases to around 50% in year 2050. Therefore future population will have equal
composition of rural and urban population.
26
Population in Million
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Rural Population
Urban Population
Figure 7: Population Projection Urban / Rural period 2005-2050, (Source: Table 4)
4.1.1.3 Rural population projections by ecological regions
The reason for projecting the rural population by ecological regions is to know the
amount of energy required in residential sector in each region. Since these regions are
endowed with entirely different types of energy resources, it is necessary to know the
energy demand of each ecological region. This facilitates to allocate the energy
resources in optimal and realistic way. The priority is to utilize local energy resources to
meet the residential sector energy demand in each region. Table 5 presents the
distribution of rural population across ecological regions of the country until 2050.It
shows the plain region accommodates the highest population followed by the hill and
mountain. Availability of opportunities relative to other region is the main reason for
highest share of rural population in plain area.
Table 5: Rural Population Projection by Ecological Regions, Period 2005-2050
(Source: own estimation on the basis of information in [18], [16], see Annex B2)
Year
Mountain
2005
2.28
2010
2.44
2015
2.59
2020
2.72
2025
2.82
2030
2.89
2035
2.92
2040
2.91
in million
2045
2050
2.86
2.78
Hills
9.12
9.76
10.36
10.88
11.29
11.55
11.67
11.63
11.45
11.10
Plain
11.39
12.20
12.95
13.61
14.11
14.44
14.58
14.54
14.31
13.88
27
Figure 8 is the graphical representation of table 5.
35.00
Population in Million
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Mountain
Hills
Plain
Figure 8: Rural Population Projection by Ecological Regions, Period2005-2050, (Source: Table5)
4.1.2 GDP Development until 2050
Since economic and population development is the key determinants of future energy
consumption, the GDP is projected from the period of 2005 to 2050.Three GDP growth
rates are used to project GDP until year 2050 .These projected GDPs (see annex C )
are used to develop three scenarios .
1. Business - as –Usual (BAU) scenario uses the current GDP growth rate of 4%.
(i.e. the GDP growth rate of 4% is the average of the past decade GDP growths [16]).
2. Medium growth (MG) scenario uses the GDP growth rate of 6%.
(i.e. the GDP growth rate of 6% can be considered with the fact that after the
decade long conflicting period and with the restoration of democracy, Nepal has a
more possibility of achieving GDP growth rate of 6%, the possible condition).
3. HG (High Growth) scenario uses the GDP growth rate of 9%.
(i.e. the GDP growth rate of 9% can be considered under optimistic situation and it
can be achieved under all favourable condition for high economic growth.)
28
Table 6 presents the different GDP growth rates and the projected GDP for the study
period 2005- 2050.
Table 6: GDP growth rates and estimated GDP, period 2005-2050
(Source: own estimation on the basis of information in [16], see Annex C)
2050-BAU
2050-MG
2050-HG
4%
6%
9%
320729
320729
320729
1873434
4414710
15499962
GDP Growth Rate in percentage
GDP at producers prices(at constant
price) 2005, in million Nepalese rupees
GDP at producers prices(at constant
price) 2050, in million Nepalese rupees
4.2 Estimation of the key variables for the scenarios to be developed
In this study two key variables, the GDP and population growth are taken into
consideration for the scenario development.
The population growth for the estimation of population by 2050 is considered same for
all scenario (i.e. the mid variant population growth rate).
The estimation of GDPs based on the different growth rates considered for different
scenarios (see section 4.1.2 and annex C). The per capita energy consumption based
on the population and GDP development is calculated by the method described in
methodology section 2. Finally the total energy consumption/ demand are calculated for
each scenario.
The flow chart and calculation for the estimation of energy demand is presented in the
annex D. The detailed energy projection data for all scenarios (BAU, MG, and HG) are
available in annexes D2, D3 and D4. The table 7 shows the GDP, population, GDP per
capita, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption by 2050 in all
scenarios.
Table 7: GDP, Population and Energy Consumption in three different scenarios
(Source: own estimation on the basis of information in [6], [16], and [18], see ANNEX D1, D2, D3)
2050-BAU
2050-MG
2050-HG
1873434
4414710
15499962
Population (million persons)
51.50
51.50
51.50
GDP per capita (Rs.), 2050
36376
85720
300960
Energy Consumption per Capita (toe)
0.53
0.96
2.83
Total Energy consumption ( million toe)
27.44
49.55
146
GDP at producers prices(at constant price in million Rs) , 2050
29
4.3 Energy needs in different scenarios until 2050
In this section the total energy demand in each scenario is allocated across the major
consuming sectors (residential, commercial, agriculture, transport and industrial). This
allocation is based on the each sector’s share in total energy consumption in past years
(see annex A3). Then each sector is analysed separately and at the end sector specific
demands are put together.
That energy efficiency improvement occurs for each sector ” natural” and is the drive of
economic conditions and not of other perspectives about climates, environment, or
social aspects.
4.3.1 Residential sector energy demand
In this section the term “residential or household” has same meaning and either of them
is used based on their relevance in the particular sentence.
As the economy develops the more energy is consumed because people want to pursue
a better life which means proper heating and cooling, better equipment for cooking,
lighting and for amusement. Therefore the growing population and economic
development (GDP growth) are considered as the main factors that would result in
substantial expansion in total energy consumption, including household consumption in
this report.
Since the energy situations varies across the areas, it is necessary to estimate energy
demand in different areas for different purposes (see section 4.1.1.2 and 4.1.1.3). Table
8 shows the detailed data of energy consumption in residential sector. The purpose is to
know the energy demand in different areas (urban, rural), different ecological regions
(mountain, hill, plain) by end use (cooking, heating and lighting). It is shown in the table
that 90% of residential sector energy demand from rural areas reduces to 50% in year
2050 in all scenarios. This is due to higher population in urban areas increases the
urban residential sector energy demand.
30
Table 8: Total residential energy demand by areas, ecological regions and end use
(Source: Annex D9)
in million GJ
Scenario
2005
Area
Urban
Rural
Ecological
Belts/Use
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050BAU
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050-MG
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050-HG
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Cooking
30
21
92
103
291
42
186
207
526
76
336
374
1549
223
990
1102
Space-heating
15
5
18
32
146
11
36
65
263
19
66
118
775
57
193
347
Lighting &
Other Purposes
5
2
2
6
49
4
5
11
88
7
8
20
258
21
24
60
Total
50
28
112
141
485
57
227
284
877
102
410
512
2582
302
1207
1509
4.3.2 Transport sector energy demand
The need of transport is increased with population and economic development. In the
good economy people’s mobility as well as goods mobility is increased. The energy
requirement for transport sector is presented in table 9.
4.3.3 Industrial sector energy demand
Energy demand in industrial sector is increased with the economic development. Mainly
energy is used in industrial sector for process heating, motive power, water boiling in the
boilers and lighting. Currently 75% of energy consumed for process heating while 25%
of energy consumed for motive power and lighting. The data for transport sector energy
requirement is presented in table 9.
4.3.4 Commercial sector energy demand
With the increased economy and population the energy demand in commercial sector
(also called as service sector) is also increased, the energy consumed in commercial
establishments such as schools, hotels, restaurants, government and non-government
institutions etc. is considered as commercial sector energy demand. Main end uses in
31
this sector are heating, cooling, lighting, cooking etc. In table 9 the data is presented for
commercial sector energy demand.
4.3.5 Agriculture sector energy demand
Since Nepal is agrarian country and the agriculture sector has significant contribution in
total GDP. As the economy develops the energy demand in agriculture sector is also
increased. The energy in this sector is mainly used for irrigation, land preparation,
harvesting etc. The main equipments consumed energy are water pumps and tractors.
In table 9 the energy demand data for agriculture sector are presented.
The calculation of energy consumption of these sectors (i.e. commercial, industrial,
agriculture and transport sector) is calculated on the basis of their share in total energy
consumption in past years (for calculations see annex D5, D6 and D7).
4.3.6 Summary of the total energy demand sector wise
Table 9 presents the energy demand of major consuming sectors for all scenarios .The
energy use in year 2050 in all three scenarios (BAU, MG, and HG) is varied across the
sectors. It also shows that high growth scenario (HG) has the highest energy demand in
all sectors. The reason is the energy demand projected on the basis of population and
GDP growth. In high growth (HG) scenario the economy is growing at highest rate (9%)
while the population growth is assumed to be same for all three scenarios.
Table 9: Energy demand sector wise
(Source: own estimation based on the information in [32), [19], [20], see annexes D5, D6 and D7)
in million GJ
Sector
Residential
2005
2050-BAU
2050-MG
2050-HG
331
1053
1901
5600
Transport
15
47
84
249
Industrial
13
41
74
218
Commercial
6
18
32
93
Agriculture
4
12
21
62
32
Figure 9 is the graphical representation of table 9.
7000
6000
Million GJ
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2005
2050-BAU
Res idential
Trans port
2050-MG
Indus trial
Com m ercial
2050-HG
Agriculture
Figure 9: Energy demand sector wise, (Source: Table 9)
4.3.7 If the fossil fuels are included in energy supply 2050
This section presents the estimation of fossil fuel requirements in each sector if the
current trend continues in the future. The trend in past shows that around 3.5% of the
total residential energy consumption was fulfilled by the
fossil fuels, while in the
commercial sector this share was about 56% [12 ]. If the trend continues in the future,
combined demand of fossil fuels for residential and commercial sector is around 47, 85
and 248 million GJ in BAU, MG and HG scenario respectively.
In transport sector, the past trends shows that fossil fuel ( the petroleum products ) is
only the energy sources to meet the energy demand except limited number of electrical
vehicles are operated in capital city Kathmandu. If this trend continues in future the fossil
fuel requirement in this sector for BAU, MG and HG scenario is around 47, 84 and 249
million GJ respectively (see annex D11).
In industrial and agriculture sector, the past trend shows around 65% and 95 of the total
energy consumption is fulfilled by the fossil fuels in industrial and agriculture sector
respectively. With these trends the fossil fuels requirement for both sectors is amounted
to 38, 68 and 201 million GJ for BAU, MG and HG scenario respectively.
33
The addition of amounts of fossil fuel requirement in each sector gives the total
requirement of fossil fuel in future (year 2050). Therefore the requirement of fossil fuels
is amounted 132 million GJ for BAU, 236 million GJ for MG and 698 million GJ for HG
scenario , if the past trend continues in the future (see annex D11) .
The figure 10 presents the sector wise requirement of fossil fuels for all scenarios in year
2050, if the past trend continues in future.
Figure 10: Amount of fossil fuel required sector wise in different scenarios
(Source: Annex D10)
4.3.8 The inefficient use of biomass in residential sector
The inefficient use of biomass especially the fuelwood is the main cause of concern for
increased rate of deforestation in Nepal. This is due to the majority of population (rural)
meets their energy demand by combusting fuelwood (for cooking and space heating)
collected from the limited forest areas. If this trend continues in the future the fuelwood
requirement only for residential sector amounted 85% of total energy demand of all
scenarios which is equivalent to 995, 1795 and 5289 million GJ (59, 107 and 316 million
tons ) for BAU, MG and HG scenario respectively. In year 2004 the sustainable fuelwood
34
supply was 6.478 million tones. This shows the huge imbalance between supply and
demand of fuelwood for energy purpose in future.
4.4 Future Energy Access in Nepal
In this section the potential of renewable energy sources and their possibilities to access
are discussed in order to supply Nepal’s future energy need and also which pretension
Nepal can have on these. The section starts with the brief description about the Nepal’s
current energy system, followed by the discussion about the various aspects of
sustainability (environmental, social and economical) of using energy resources and
their current status in Nepal. The potential of these resources is assessed by discussing
the measures require in future to achieve sustainability in using them. The renewable
energy sources discussed are hydropower, biomass and sun energy and also energy
from the waste, wind and biofuels as a source of energy in future.
4.4.1 The challenges in Nepal’s energy sector
One of the major prerequisites for the social and economic development of the country
is the adequate and consistent availability of energy sources. In Nepal the adequate
energy supply even for the basic human needs has been a big challenge due to the poor
infrastructure development and lack of funds to develop and manage energy resources.
The country’s energy sector is characterized by the inefficient use of biomass which
causes unsustainability in using forest resources. Mainly biomass and hydropower are
two indigenous energy sources in Nepal.
Fuelwood supplies almost 80 percent of total energy demand and is extracted beyond
the sustainable supply capability of the forests indicating a growth in deforestation.
Whereas, electricity supplies only 1.8% of total energy consumption and only about 600
MW have been developed [6].
The fuelwood crisis increases the consumption of agriculture residues for energy
purposes which results in falling production, encroachment of marginal land for farming,
exposure to the risks of soil erosion and further degradation in crop productivity and
biomass supply.
35
4.4.2 The energy and environment in context of Nepal
The energy and environment can complement each other if they are managed in
integrated way and vice versa (i.e. no forests no rain so no hydropower). In past,
environmental issues were put aside for any development projects such as hydropower,
road projects etc. Now the consequences due to environment degradations (i.e. climate
change, acid rain, draught, flood etc.) force to look the environmental aspects of any
development project.
Recognizing the importance of environment, Government of Nepal has promulgated
Environment Protection Act (1996) and Environment Protection Rule (EPR) 1997 First
Amendment 1999. According to the Act, the proponent must implement environment
management plan to minimize the likely impact of the project [6].
4.4.3 Social aspects of energy in Nepal
In Nepal more than 50% of the total population comprised of woman but their
contributions in development activities are minimal. The reasons are illiteracy, poor
health, poverty and traditionally conservative attitude towards them. Without the
contributions of key stakeholders (The Nepalese woman), any development activities
are incomplete and meaningless.
In Nepal where most of the population meets their daily energy needs from biomass
which involves long hours of labor spent gathering and using this fuel mainly performed
unpaid by women. These activities impose the major challenge in woman development
because it hampers women’s ability to undertake education or perform more
economically productive work. The policy for improved energy access removes the daily
burden of fuel gathering and allows benefits such as better health and productivity.
Therefore active participation of woman in preparation of energy policy to address the
gender issues in energy sector is very much required to improve their quality of life.
Recognizing these facts, the government of Nepal made special provision in the
constitution to make women equal from the legal point of view and to ensure the
improvement of their personnel, economic and social development.
36
At present, there are several acts and regulations in energy sector in Nepal such as
Forest Act 1993, Electricity Act 1992, Electricity Regulations 1993, and Environment
Regulations 1995 etc., but none of them includes the gender issues except the Local
Self -Governance Act 1998 which is the landmark to ensure the participation of woman
in local development activities. This Act mandates 20% representation by women in
ward membership and this mandatory representation has brought around 40,000 women
in the local governance.
4.4.4 Energy and Economics
Energy consumption is one of the key determinants of country’s economic growth. There
is also a historical co- relation between energy and economy. Therefore, it is necessary
to understand the historical relation between the different economic parameters and
energy consumption. An investigation conducted by Chien-Chiang Lee revealed that
current as well as past changes in energy consumption that have a significant impact on
a change in income in developing countries [8]. The results clearly show in general that
energy is an important ingredient for economic development for the developing
countries. Therefore GDP growth is considered as one of the main driving forces for
increasing energy consumption in this study.
Developing country like Nepal has the low growth period in the past years. After coming
out from the decade long unstable political situation, Nepal has more possibility for the
rapid economic growth in future. Therefore with high economic growth country’s
requirements for energy and supporting infrastructure would also increase rapidly. In
order to enable policy-makers to undertake timely decisions, it is extremely important to
estimate the magnitude of total energy requirements as well alternative energy pathways
in future.
4.4.5 Potential of renewable fuels and their sustainability
4.4.5.1 The hydropower potential in Nepal
The theoretical potential of hydropower in Nepal is estimated around 83000 MW based
on the average river flow (Shrestha, H.M., 1966). However the economically exploitable
potential is only around 43000 MW (see Table 10). The reason is the technical and
37
economical limitations and the presence of difficult geology and accessible terrain in
Nepal.
There is big challenge to develop hydropower in Nepal, because of several complex and
interrelated factors. The next section includes the discussions about the various aspects
of sustainability (social, technical, environmental and economical) and the measures to
develop hydropower in sustainable way. The hydropower potential is estimated based
on these discussions.
Nepal is agrarian country where majority of the population (around 80%) depends upon
cultivation for their livelihood. In this context the major concern is inundation of large
cultivation areas due to construction of large dam for big hydropower which is otherwise
use for agriculture purposes. On the other hand hydropower development aids the
agriculture sector growth by providing irrigation facilities for cultivation. Nepal’s
agriculture sector has contribution around 36% to the GDP at real prices in fiscal year
2006/07 [24]. The dismal performance of agriculture sector is one of the main causes for
low economic growth. The reason is low productivity of the land due to the lack of
irrigation and lack of access of modern agriculture technology. Nepal has a cultivated
area of 2,642,000 hectares (ha) (18% of its land area), of which two-thirds is potentially
irrigable. If all irrigable lands were provided with year-round irrigation, total production
could increase by 50% (due to water inputs alone) [22]. If other inputs of agriculture such
as modern agriculture technology and fertilizer applied with irrigation there would be
manifold increase in land productivity. Therefore the development of multipurpose
projects could be the option for several solutions such as drinking water, irrigation and
hydropower in Nepal.
One of the major challenges of hydropower development is the rehabilitation issues
such as land acquisition, relocation and resettlement of the affected people due to
hydropower projects. The number of people need to relocate depends upon the size and
scale of the project. For example, 2,000 people had to be relocated to install a 14 MW
hydropower projects in Burkina Faso (Kompienga), while 29,000 people had to be
relocated for a 29 MW hydropower plant in Indonesia (Kedung Ombo) [23]. In Nepal
mostly the Run-of-River (ROR) plants are in operation and they are widely accepted by
the society, due to minimum impact on environment and population (rehabilitation and
relocation) and no conflict in riparian issues such as upstream and downstream benefits
38
and equitable share of water. But the problem with ROR plant is the large variation in
availability of energy (maximum availability in rainy season and minimum availability in
winter and summer when demand is high). Unless a transparent and well laid out
acquisition, compensation and rehabilitation plan, larger plants would be a disaster in a
country like Nepal with its limited land resources and intricacies of power within social
relations.
Past evidences show the direct relation between the economy and hydropower
development. The development of hydropower aids the local as well as country’s
economic growth because it creates employment, infrastructure. Further foreign
exchange can be earned by importing electricity to the neighboring countries India and
China. At present, substantial portion of foreign exchange earning spends on importing
fossil fuels from India. Further rising of fuel prices results in huge trade deficit and acute
energy crisis in future. Therefore replacing fossil fuel by hydro electricity and exporting it
to the neighbouring countries will help to reduce the trade deficit and increase the
energy security in the country.
Another major challenge is the cost of developing hydropower in Nepal which is highest
in the world (around US $ 2500/kW installed capacity) [25]. The reasons are heavy
reliance on bilateral and multilateral financing, extensive employment of international
contractors
and consultants, unstable geology of
hydropower sites, lack
of
manufacturing capability related to hydropower plant, lack of local capacity to build huge
project and the lack of infrastructure at project sites. On the other side ,it is interesting to
note that small hydro-power plants developed by the Nepalese Independent Power
Producers (IPP) are within the range of US$1500/kW installed capacity, and the reasons
is extensive use of indigenous local resources (manpower, equipments, contractors)[25].
Nevertheless in future Nepal will have indigenous resources to develop the large
hydropower in a cost effective and sustainable way.
The role of hydropower projects in creation of infrastructure is important in the
developing country like Nepal where the economic growth has been severely affected
due to the lack of infrastructure. It is found that hydropower project development
expands and improves the local as well as country’s economic and social infrastructure
such as schools, roads, hospital, trade, employment. If the development of large
hydropower plants is tied up with infrastructure development, their possibility of
39
accepting by the local people is high. The priority to the women and other deprived
groups in local employment created due to the large hydropower will improve the status
of these people in society. Further the infrastructure development such as roads,
hospitals and schools have multiplier effects on local as well as nation economy.
The impact on ecosystem (biodiversity, aquatic ecology, and watershed) due to large
hydropower development is a great concern in Nepal. From the lowland (called Teri) to
the peaks of the Himalayas, Nepal’s altitude varies over 28,000 feet within borders a
mere 150 miles apart, the largest variation on earth. This high altitude variation in short
span provides a wide range of habitats for biodiversity and a high level of biogeographical diversity in Nepal. Therefore ecological considerations such as
conservation of biodiversity, watershed, endemic, rare and endangered species, and
habitats should be given priority at every level of the development process of
hydropower from project planning, design, implementation and operation stage.
The other advantages of developing hydropower are the flood control by building dam
for hydropower storage projects and minimizing deforestation and pollutions (indoor and
outdoor) by replacing fuelwood with hydro electricity, a clean form of energy.
From the above discussion about, how to achieve sustainability in using hydropower
resources, this study concludes that hydropower development should be based on the
principle of integrated water resource management (IWRM). The IWRM principle
identifies the requirement of holistic, systematic approach that considers the social,
economical and environmental sustainability of use of water resources. The economic
viable hydropower potential is presented in the table 10.
Table 10: Summary of Economic Hydroelectric Development Opportunities, (Source: [22])
Category
Number of
Project Identified
Total Capacity
MW
Total Generation Potential
GWh/Year
10-100 MW (Medium)
157
6,200
38,000
100-300 MW (Medium)
47
7,815
42,056
300-1000 MW (Large)
20
9,437
45,723
5
19,463
50,985
229
42,915
176,764
> 1000 MW (Large)
Total
From the above data this study concludes all the medium scale (10-300 MW) and large
scale with capacity range 300-1000 MW project should be considered for future energy
40
supply since most of them are ROR type, widely accepted by the society. Among the
large scale projects, the Carnal Chisapani project (installed capacity of 10800 MW with
the average annual energy production 20842 GWh, source [26]), located in mid western
region (highly backward region) in Nepal is highly recommended for regional
development.
Other large hydropower projects Sapta Kosi (3300 MW) and Pancheshwar (5600 MW)
are the integral part of multipurpose project (for flood control, drinking water, irrigation
and hydropower) that would be developed under bilateral treaty with India. The progress
of these projects has been severely affected due to the unstable political situation and
the controversy in treaties. Nevertheless these existing bilateral projects and the new
bilateral projects in future are bound to happen for the prosperity of the regions. This
study assumes the scale of the project will be reduced in order to reduce the negative
impacts and the treaties will be ratified in transparent way with the participation and
consensus of all stakeholders. With the assumptions that these projects develop at
reduced scale in future, 50% of the energy generation by these projects (15000 GWh/
year) can be considered for future energy supply.
The role of small and micro-hydro schemes is significant in extending the electrical
energy consumption to the rural areas in Nepal. With the multiple benefits of developing
micro hydropower plants, they are highly considered for future energy supply with the
potential of 50 MW and annual energy generations about 1.58 million GJ.
4.4.5.2 Biomass
The substantial amount of energy (90% of total energy consumption) is supplied by
biomass energy resources (i.e. fuel wood, agricultural waste and animal dung) in Nepal.
This is because of majority of the population (90% of total population) fulfill their daily
energy needs by these resources. The traditional use of biomass (direct combustion)
leads to inefficient use of resources. Therefore present energy system of Nepal can be
characterized by three words: biomass, inefficiency and rural population [27].
Fuelwood
Fuelwood is one of the major fuels used by the rural population. The current fuelwood
supply and demand is presented in table 11.
41
Table 11.Fuel wood balance in Nepal, 2003/04, (Source: [6])
Unit in 000 tons
Sources
Off-Farm
Supply
On Farm Supply
Total Supply
Total Demand
Balance
Physiographic Region
Development Region
Terai Hills
Mountain FWDR MWDR WDR
CDR
844
461
1305
7889
-6584
2935
564
3499
6562
-3063
1565
110
1675
2318
-643
924
127
1051
2293
-1242
1152
193
1344
3023
-1679
651
245
896
3570
-2674
1228
261
1489
5080
-3591
EDR
1388
308
1696
2803
-1107
Total
5343
1135
6478
16769
-10291
As shown in the table 11, there is a huge gap between supply and demand of fuel wood.
This gap results in increased rate of deforestation, loss of bio-diversity, land slide,
siltation, indoors and out door air pollutions.
The sustainability in using fuel wood resources can be achieved by managing them in a
proper way. In this context Nepal already has implemented the community forestry
program to protect and use the forest resources in sustainable way. The community
forestry is managed by the forest users group (FUG) comprise of local people. The
community forestry has successfully linked the rural people with forests, trees, and the
products and benefits to be derived from them. The community forest program has
several advantages such as it increases the social cohesion by including the powerless
and isolated people of the society in the committee. Further these groups generate
revenue by the sale of forest products which can be credited or granted to the poor to
improve their condition. The development activities such as building schools and
hospitals are some of the example can be carried out through this programme.
Frequent training, workshops and exposure visits educate the people about the
management, leadership and community development.
This study assumes that in future community forest will have prominent role in
sustainable supply of fuelwood in future. Based on the sustainable fuelwood supply
potential this study estimates annual fuelwood supply is around 6.5 million tons which
contains energy around 108.8 million GJ.
42
Agriculture residues
Second major biomass resource is agriculture residues. In future the amount of
agriculture residues will increase with increase of food production to sustain growing
population. To maintain the production in proportion of population growth with present
farming system is one of the major challenges in future. In Nepal crop yield per unit area
is still well below their potential and the reason is the key inputs (i.e. improved seeds,
fertilizers and irrigation etc.) are either not met in a balance way or underutilized or over
utilized in some locations. Another concern is degraded condition of land system
resulting in the loss of soil fertility in agricultural lands and this is due to population
growth and exhaustion of the forest base resources. Therefore maintaining the soil
fertility without affecting the natural resources is a big challenge in future.
In future the integrated use of soil, water, and forest base with balanced use of modern
inputs such as fertilizer, pesticide is the key to achieve the sustainability in agriculture
sector.
To increase the productivity in sustainable manner a long term plan (for 20 years time
horizon) named Agriculture Perspective Plan (APP) was formulated in year 1995 in
Nepal [28]. The estimation of agriculture residues based on the growth rate of agriculture
sector set in APP, 5% for the study period 2005-2050 (see annex E5).
With this growth rate, the annual estimated potential of agriculture resides is 143.97
million which have energy content about 1808 million GJ in 2050(see annex E5).
4.4.5.3 Biofuels
This study considers the liquid and gaseous fuel produced from renewable biological
resources such as crop, animal residues, and municipal waste as a biofuel.
Biogas from animal residues (dung)
The use of biogas from the animal dung is popular in rural Nepal. The figure 11 shows a
woman in rural Nepal tends her biogas plant, which serves as a stove for cooking. There
are around 140,000 biogas currently in use and Nepal's Biogas Support Program plans
to have 200,000 biogas plants in place by 2009, affecting 66 of the nation's 75 districts
43
[2]. Figure 12 shows the biogas as a fuel used for cooking. The biogas can be used for
cooking, lighting, refrigeration as well as operating machines but in Nepal it is mainly
used for cooking (80%) and lighting (20%).
Figure 11: Biogas Digester
(Source: BSP/N (2008), [2])
Figure 12: Cooking on biogas fueled stove
The use of biogas has several advantages, such as;
•
It replaces fossil fuels so reduces expense on imported fuel.
•
It conserves forest because it also replaces fuelwood for cooking in rural areas.
•
The byproduct of biogas plant is slurry which serves as a fertilizer in the fields.
This enhances agricultural production and replaced the use of chemical fertilizers.
•
The social benefit from the biogas is to provide income generating opportunities
by saving the time to collect fuel wood for cooking and providing masonry work
available in this sector.
•
It has positive impact on health of the biogas users due to reduced indoor
pollution.
•
Earns income through carbon trading under the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM).Recently (in 2006) two biogas-related projects approved as 'Clean
Development Mechanism' (CDM) projects. Under this Nepal will receive 43.34
million rupee annually [40].
44
The potential of biogas plants is considered, based on the technical and geographic
feasibility study conducted by Biogas Support Program (BSP, 2004). It is estimated the
potential of biogas plants is around 1.9 million in Nepal: 57% in Plain, 37% in Hill and
6% in Mountain regions [29]. The small, fixed-dome biogas reactor with digester
capacity of 8 m3 is most popular one because of its technical and economical viability in
context of Nepal. The potential for this type of digester is around half million units but the
potential can be increased to 1 million by adopting some innovative method to promote it
such as subsidy, co-operatives, self help building [29].
Based on the data explained above, this study considers 1 million biogas plants with
digester capacity of 8 m3 until 2050.The total amount of energy generated by the biogas
plants is around 14.13 million GJ annually (see annex E6).
Energy from urban solid waste
The increasing rate of urbanization has created the major problem to dispose the urban
waste since no municipalities in Nepal have waste management plan. Therefore this
study considers the biogas generation from the urban waste as a solution for both the
growing energy demand and the waste disposal problem in urban areas of Nepal. The
rational is around 70% of the waste is organic which is highly suitable for biogas
generation and the rest (plastic, paper and glass) can be recycled. The biogas
generates from waste can be used in public transport buses or for other purposes such
as cooking, heating and lighting. Figure 13 and 14 shows the waste disposal process in
Nepal.
Figure 13: Garbage Collection by Chain Dozer
Figure 14: Garbage Unloading by Compacter
Source: K.C B. (2007), [30])
45
The calculation of annual energy generation from the solid waste is based on the urban
population in Nepal until 2050. Based on the estimation the annual energy generation
from the urban waste is 15.5 million GJ. The detailed calculation is in annex E8.
Ethanol
The ethanol is derived from the sugarcanes can be used as fuel for vehicles. In Nepal,
the promotion of ethanol in the gasoline is in line with the government's priority to reduce
vehicular air pollution and its adverse impacts on health especially in the urban centers.
Further the ethanol mixing improves the utilization of sugar mills and saves the foreign
earning spends on oil imports. Sugarcane is the cash crop and Nepal is agrarian country
where people mostly involve in cultivation. Therefore ethanol production will generate
employment and income to the rural people.
The bio- ethanol in Nepal is planned to produce from molasses (by-product of sugar
mill).Currently only one sugar mill (Sri Ram Sugar Mills Ltd) has installed a Molecular
Sieve Dehydration Plant of 30,000 liters per day capacity to produce anhydrous ethanol.
Besides this there are other five operating sugar mills in the country and they are
capable to produce ethanol as the demand increase in future .The sugarcane production
was 2.376 million tons in year 2004/05 from 59,400 hectares of land and the production
is increasing at around 5% per year [31].
The estimation of potential for ethanol production is based on the growth rate of 5%, the
sugarcane production in future and the ethanol yield from the molasses. See the
detailed calculation in annex E9.
The ethanol production is estimated around 147 million liter which contains energy
around 31 million GJ, See annex E9.
Bio Diesel
Nepal has good potential to produce bio diesel from the energy crop called Jatropha
(non-edible oilseed plant). A study shown that over 2 million hectares of unused land is
available and the Jetropha’s distribution is reported in all districts of plain, hills and on
low-lying areas in the mountain to an altitude of 1400 meter above the sea level. The
ability to grow in degraded land, Jatropha could be good option as a fuel in future. This
46
study considers the cultivation of Jatropha on unused land as a great opportunity to
produce biodiesel which replaces fossil fuels in future.
Figure 15:Living Fences (Jatropha curcas L.)
Source: Boswell M. (2001), [34])
Figure 16:Mechanised Oil Expeller
In a social sustainability perspective, the Jetropha’s ability to grow in waste and poor soil
and its local market potential reinforces social distribution of benefits to the people from
the most disadvantaged groups to the industrialists. Involving women from marginalized
communities in Jatropha farming provides an opportunity to translate the rhetoric of
women empowerment into reality. In addition Jatropha can be cultivated as a localized
and decentralized system of feedstock production in rural areas. This creates the wide
distribution of benefits in terms of job creation and income generation. Growing energy
crops is labor intensive and rural-based activity. Therefore major components of cost go
to the farmers in the form of labor wage and supply price of inputs [32].
In environmental sustainability perspective biodiesel has zero net carbon emission and
fewer emissions of other pollutants than petrol and diesel. The by-product of biodiesel
from Jatropha is pressed oilcake can be converted into organic fertilizer which will
substitute significant amount of imported chemical fertilizer with no additional
investment. Alternatively oilcakes can also be used as feedstock for biogas production
so more energy produced from the same amount of feedstock. Due to its potential to
thrive on marginal and poor soil, Jatropha plantation lends itself to make productive use
of waste and idle land and therefore its cultivation can be a useful technology for
rehabilitation of degraded land. Experiences reported from different parts of the country
on the use of Jatropha plants in soil conservation are encouraging.
47
In economical sustainability perspective, it saves foreign exchange earning spends on
oil imports. The ever increasing oil price put the major threat on energy security of the
country, the bio-diesel production from indigenous resources is the best option to
achieve energy independence. However the utilization of land for biodiesel production is
a big question in future (i.e. food production for growing population or bio-diesel?).The
Nepal’s economy is dominated by agriculture sector and biodiesel production from
Jatropha based on agriculture economy. Therefore income of the rural people will
increase by cultivating Jatropha this further causes high economic growth of the country.
Further bio diesel production saves foreign exchange and reduces energy expenditures
and allows developing countries like Nepal to put more of their resources into health,
education and other services for their neediest citizens.
The bio–diesel could be the cheapest option for agriculture sector’s energy requirement
since it can be produced locally in rural areas. Estimates show commercial production
of Jatropha feedstock is financially viable even at inflated cost and low returns and thus
can attract private investment [32].
In technical sustainability perspective no modification of conventional engines is required
to use biodiesel. It has same energy content as diesel and can be used alone or mixed
in any ratio with diesel fuel. The preferred ratio of mixture ranges between 5 and 20%
(B5 - B20) [33] and it also extends the life of diesel engines. The application of Jatropha
crude oil in diesel generator and stationary engines addressing energy requirement of
industrial units while the use in agro-processing mills, irrigation pump sets and tractors
addressing the agriculture sector energy requirement.
Based on the sustainability analysis this study estimated the biodiesel potential on the
basis of land available to cultivate Jatropha in future. The detailed assumptions and
calculations are described in annex E9.The annual estimated potential is 600 million liter
which contains energy about 19.8 million GJ, if it is cultivated in 50% of unused land until
2050.
This study considers that all the biofuels will be used for transportation and agriculture
sector (for irrigation and land preparation purposes) except the biogas produced from
livestock in rural areas is used for lighting and cooking purposes in rural residential
sectors.
48
4.4.5.4 Solar Potential
Solar is one of the modern sources of renewable energy and has enormous potential to
use in Nepal, where the average sunshine hours is about 6.8 hours 300 sunny days in a
year with average insolation about 4.5 kWh/m2/day [35] .
Traditionally solar energy is used for drying fruits and spices but the modern use as a
solar water heater started in early 70’s in urban areas and currently solar home systems
(solar photovoltaics) are gaining popularity in rural and remote areas due to government
support in form of subsidy.
Recently a drive called Solar Tuki4 for poor to replace the kerosene lamps has been
launched by the Environmental Camps for Conservation Awareness (ECCA) in Nepal.
The target groups are the people below the poverty line, not able to afford the upfront
cost of the Solar Tuki, which is US$50.To make this sustainable a micro financing
mechanism has been developed by mobilizing local groups and enabling the people to
purchase the Solar Tuki on an installment basis (capital fund being provided from the
revolving fund). Linkages have also been established with the existing users’ group /
saving and the credit groups developed by various other projects (Government of
Nepal/UNDP program, WWF, Winrock International, etc.) [36]. The figure 17 shows the
various solar systems are working in Nepal for different purposes.
Solar Water Heater System
Solar Photovoltaic
Solar Tuki set
Figure 17 : Solar technologies in Nepal, (Source: Shrestha P.K. (2008), [36], FoST (2008). [38)])
4
Tuki called in local language, to the inserting strands of cloth or “wicks” in glass bottles filled with
kerosene and the solar tuki is a White Light Emitting Diodes (WLED) based solar lighting system that
consists of two units of 0.3-Watt lamps with built-in Nickel Metal Hydride rechargeable batteries which is
charged by 3 Watt solar photo voltaic panel. The lamp unit also has a 3 volt outlet for connecting a FM/AM
radio.
49
This study identifies, solar is the major energy sources in Nepal which has to use
extensively in order to establish sustainable renewable energy system. Next paragraphs
describe about the various aspects of sustainability in using solar technologies.
The sustainability analysis from social point of view in an impact study5 on using solar
cooking shows that it reduces the health hazards and drudgery of the user, mainly the
women and children and provided them an ample opportunities for employment and
income generation. Further the diseases due to the contamination in drinking water
largely prevails in rural Nepal can be eliminated by pasteurizing water in solar cooker or
by installing Solar Powered Ozone Water Treatment System (SPOWTS).
A social impact study on the groups who are using Solar Tuki shows that, it creates
employments to manufacture and to install it. The light available all the time irrespective
of weather condition and the children become more competitive by studying in night and
listening different education programs in radio. Further a unique and encouraging result
is obtained in one village where the community charging station is in the school and all
the children have to come to class in order to charge the Solar Tuki, there is an indirect
but clear impact on the attendance numbers. Better health because of clean, white and
smokeless light by the Solar Tuki is also one of the key findings in the study.
The social sustainability of solar home system (solar photovoltaics) is the same except
its cost which is higher than Solar Tuki.
Regarding the solar water heating system, the solar water heater industry has created
large number of employment (currently around 120 solar water-heater manufacturers
running their business in Nepal). In high altitude areas where the skin disease is
common among the people and the reason is none bathing practice due to unavailability
of hot water. In this context the solar water heating system can help to prevent skin
disease by providing hot water for bath.
From the above discussion we can say the social sustainability of solar technologies is
high in Nepal in terms of improving the health of the people, creating employment
5
Currently about 3000 solar cookers of various models (including about 1000 of SK-14 solar cookers) are
in use in various part in Nepal,
promoted through collaborative efforts of various persons and
organizations
50
opportunities, providing clean energy to the rural people and to help educating the
people.
The sustainability analysis of solar technology from the environmental perspective
shows that, all the solar technologies are environmental friendly. They are clean, no
emissions from them so they are most promising technologies in future from
environmental perspective. Further the use of solar energy helps to preserve forest and
no cost of pollutions involves in using them.
The economical sustainability of solar technology is high in Nepal, since it saves the
foreign exchange spending on importing petroleum products. There are no costs
involved in its transport and is available any place within the sun’s rays. It reduces the
electricity bills and also helps to reduce the dependency on foreign sources of energy.
They are more suitable for the Nepal’s rural population, distributed sparsely. The
technical competency and the production at large scale will make them viable option for
energy in future.
The solar technology with long experience, ideal climate condition, large number of
industries and skilled manpower makes it technically sustainable in Nepal. As the
technology matures and the production level reaches the economies of scale, the unit
cost of production becomes lower. Therefore extensive promotions of solar technologies
make them cheaper in future. Various solar devices such as water heating system, solar
cooker and dryers can be manufactured by the use of local resources. Since the solar
technologies are simple, it is easier to train the people to install, maintain and operate
them especially in rural areas.
After analysing from the different aspects of sustainability, this study considers the use
of solar technologies for heating, cooking and lighting purposes .The estimated potential
of solar energy is 26. 6 million MW which can be used based on the time and availability
of solar energy.
4.4.5.5 The Wind Energy Potential
The wind energy in Nepal still not exploited except some unsuccessful efforts in past.
The reasons are lack of wind data, lack of awareness, lack of commitment from the
government and the potential is in mountainous regions where no infrastructure at all.
51
However the good thing is the regions where wind power can be generated are mostly
located in trekkers and tourists en route (Kagbeni and Chusang in Mustang District,
Thakmarpha, Khumbu and Khanjiroba).The wind power could be the viable option for
the hotels located in these routes. Utilizing wind power in tourist areas helps to achieve
the objectives of eco-tourism in Nepal. A study conducted by the Department of
Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in 1983 shows the high possibility of using wind
power to pump water in plain regions. The pump base irrigation by utilizing wind energy
is in line with the National Water Plan (NWP) which emphasizes the groundwater
irrigation is viable option for irrigation in plain region rather than surface irrigation. The
reasons is plain (Teri) has a tremendous potential of groundwater resources. The terai,
with a thick sequence of saturated detrital sediments of alluvial and colluvial origin is one
of the most productive aquifers in the subcontinent [21]. Therefore wind powered pump
would be the best option to reduce the dependency and spending on commercial energy
sources for water pumping and increase the agricultural productivity in a sustainable
way. Some researches are underway to manufacture wind turbine with low cost (wood)
natural material with available local resources. The potential of using wind turbine for
electricity generation is high in future.
This study assumes around 10% of the energy demand of irrigation is fulfilled by the
wind powered pump. The wind energy potential of 200 MW with an annual energy
production of 500 GWh electricity generation is considered for this study. This is
according to the study conducted by DANGRID, a Danish consulting firm in 1992 [6].
Figure 18 shows the use of wind energy for various purposes in Nepal.
Wind Generator installed in Jumla
Wind Pump Installed
Figure 18: Wind Energy in Nepal, (Source: Zahnd A. (2007), [37], GRID Nepal (2008), [39])
52
4.4.5.6 Other energy resources
The energy from the other sources such as electricity from cogeneration plants of sugar
industries, heat from geothermal energy resources etc. will be of significant amount but
because of scarcity of reliable data they are not considered for future energy supply in
this study.
4.4.5.7 Summary of the potential of renewable energy in Nepal
Table 12 presents the potential energy resources available in different areas of Nepal. It
shows the energy resources that can be used on sustainable basis in year 2050. These
data are the basis for the future energy supply in each scenario.
Table 12: Potential of Renewable Fuels in different regions in Nepal, year 2050, (Source: Annex E)
in million GJ
Types of Energy Sources
Urban
Rural
Plain
Biogas (Rural)
Agriculture Residues
Fuel wood
Hills
Total
Mountain
8.05
5.23
0.85
14.13
961.97
743.18
103.07
1808.22
21.93
58.80
28.15
108.88
Solar
Biogas from urban waste
186732.00
15.50
15.50
Hydropower Large
418.00
Micro Hydro
1.10
0.47
1.58
Ethanol
31.02
Bio Diesel
19.80
Wind
Total
1.80
15.50
991.96
808.31
132.54
189150.92
4.4.6 The sustainability matrix for Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs)
The evaluation of technology is based on various factors of each sustainability aspects.
These factors are listed below in table 13 and impact on them due to the application of
technology determines the high, low or medium rank on various sustainability aspects.
53
Table 13: Various factors of each sustainability aspect
Social
Environmental
Economical
Technical
Woman empowerment
Impact on
environment.
Impact on
ecosystem.
Effect on health
Impact on local and
national economy
Opportunity for
employment
Opportunity to increase
income of rural people
Degree of simplicity
Upliftment of the poor in
the society
Level of GHG
emissions.
Cost & affordability
Competency, capacity &
knowledge
Opportunity to isolated
groups in decision making.
Level of indoor and
outdoor pollutions
Opportunity to use local
resources
Degree of reliability and
appropriateness.
Opportunity for education
Level of indoor and
outdoor pollutions
Infrastructure
development
Proven track record
Equality in society
Inclusion of deprived
groups of the society
Ease of operation,
maintenance and installation
Degree of maturity &
adaptabity
These factors in the table 13 are self explanatory in nature. For example the micro
hydropower in rural area have high social sustainability because it empowers the
deprived groups by forming committee to manage the plant, it saves time to collect
biomass from forest and provide opportunity to study in night. The environmental
sustainability is also high because no emissions and no impact on environment and
ecology. Regarding the economic sustainability it boosts the rural economy by providing
the income generating opportunities. Since this technology is simple so it can be
cheaper by using local resources. Finally the technical sustainability of micro hydro is
high since it is a simple technology can easily maintain and operate by local people.
Also it is matured technology in Nepal with proven track record since long. Table 14
shows the RETs evaluation across the various factors of each sustainability aspect.
Table 14: Sustainability matrix of various Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs)
Technology
Social
Solar
High
Large Hydro
Environmental
Economical
Technical
High
High
High
Low
Low
High
High
Micro Hydro
High
High
High
High
Biomass
High
Medium
Medium
High
Wind
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Biofuel
High
High
High
High
Electrical Vehicles
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Renewable fueled Vehicles
High
High
Low
Low
54
4.4.7 The application and priority matrix of Renewable Energy Technologies
(RETs)
The renewable energy technologies (RETs) for future energy supply are considered on
the basis of their efficiency, affordability, adaptability and environmental, social and
health benefits. The table 15 shows the various RETs and their application across the
energy consuming sectors.
Table 15: Renewable Energy technologies (RETs) for different sector for different purposes
Technologies
Biomass technologies
Energy type
Application
Area/sector
Efficient cooking stoves
Heat
Cooking
Rural residential
Briquetting
Heat
Cooking & space heating
Rural & Urban
Residential
Biomass based gasification CHP plant Electrical & Heat Lighting , cooking & space heating Rural residential
Biomass based steam CHP plant
Electrical & Heat Lighting, cooking & space heating Urban residential
Biomass based boiler
Heat
process heat
Hydropower
Electricity
Lighting , cooking & space heating Urban residential
Micro hydro
Electricity
Lighting
Rural residential
Solar cell
Electrical & Heat Lighting & other purposes
Rural residential
Solar water heating system
Heat
Water heating
Urban residential
solar water pump
Electricity
water pumping
Agriculture
solar cooker
Heat
Cooking
Rural residential
Passive solar designed buildings,
Heat & light
Industrial
Solar Technologies
Lighting & space heating
Wind Technologies
Wind turbine
Electrical
Lighting, space heating, cooking
Rural areas
wind water pump
Non conventional transportation
system
mechanical
water pumping
Agriculture
Electrical vehicles
electricity
Transportation
Transport
Biogas fueled vehicles
chemical
Transportation
Transport
Ethanol vehicle
chemical
Transportation
Transport
Electrical ropeways
Electrical
Transportation
Transport
55
Priority Matrix is used to allocate the energy resources and technologies across major
energy consuming sectors. The energy resources and technologies are prioritized
(1-highest priority and so on) in the table 16 based on their ability in the fulfillment of the
energy demand of various sectors.
Table 16: Priority Matrix for the resources allocation across sectors
Sector
Cooking
Heating
Lighting
1.
District heating
1. Electricity from CHP
Residential Urban
1. Electricity from
CHP
2. Briquettes
2.
Electricity
2. Hydro Electricity
3. Briquettes
1. Solar cooking
Residential Rural
Mountain
1. Solar photovoltaic
2. Fuelwood
3. Biogas
2. Micro hydro
3. Wind
4. Briquettes
4. Biogas
1. Solar cooking
Residential Rural Hill
1. Briquettes
1. Briquettes
1. Solar photovoltaic
2. Fuelwood,
2. Micro hydro
3. Biogas
3. Biogas
4. Briquettes
Residential Rural Plain
Commercial
1. Solar cooking
2. Fuelwood,
1. Briquettes
3. Biogas from
4. Briquettes
1. Electricity from
CHP
2. Briquettes
1. Solar photovoltaic
2. Biogas
3. Hydro Electricity
1.
District heating
1. Electricity from CHP
2.
Electricity
2. Hydro Electricity
3. Briquettes
Motive Power
Process Heat
Lighting
1. Hydro Electricity
1. Agriculture
residues
1. Hydro Electricity
Industrial
2. Electricity from
CHP
Agriculture
2. Electricity from CHP
Land Preparation
Irrigation
1. Biodiesel
1. wind pump
2 Ethanol
2. Biodiesel
3. Hydro Electricity
1. Ethanol
Transport
2. Biogas from urban
waste
3. Biodiesel
4. Hydro Electricity
56
5 RESULTS
This section is started with the discussion about the inputs of the model (energy demand
projection across the sectors, potential of energy resources and the supply and demand
side technologies) followed by the presentation of the types and quantity of the
resources allocated across the major consuming sectors in each scenario by using
model proposed in section 2.2. This process (supply and demand analysis) tries to
establish the sustainable energy system in Nepal. This section also presents the amount
energy in surplus or in deficit in each scenario
The inputs of the model are:
•
Sectoral Energy demand of each scenario.
•
Potential of indigenous (renewable) energy resources.
•
Demand side end use technology.
•
Supply side resources conversion options (technology).
The sectoral energy demand projection is presented in section 4.3. The potential of
energy resources is presented in section 4.4.5.The demand and supply side
technologies described in sections 4.4.6 and 4.4.7.
In the demand side, it is found that around 34% energy demand can be reduced in
residential as well as in commercial sector with the application of RETs such as efficient
cooking stoves, solar cooking, passive building design, briquetting of biomass. In supply
side this study explores the RETs that can exploit the energy in sustainable way. For
example energy from the biomass can be efficiently produced through CHP plants rather
than using them traditionally (direct combustion).The assumptions in supply and demand
side technology are described in annex F1.
These inputs are provided to the model in order to obtain the results of the study which
provide information regarding the level of uptake of total energy resources, their
distribution across the consuming sectors, the choice of technological options at the
resource supply, conversion and end-use levels and end-use technological options
adopted. The results of the study obtained for all three scenarios are presented in the
next sections.
57
5.1 The 2050- BAU Scenario
The sectoral energy demand with the application of RETs for 2050-BAU Scenario is
presented in Table 17. This demand is 30% less than the original demand of 1170
million GJ (see table 9), mainly due to the application of RETs in residential and
commercial sector (for details see annex F).
Table 17: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- BAU scenario, (Source: own estimation based on
the information in Annex F, see Annex F2)
Sector
Energy demand
in Million GJ
Residential
commercial
695.86
Industrial
13.69
Agriculture
40.95
Transport
11.7
Total
46.8
809
The resource allocation across the consuming sectors is presented in Table 18. For
detailed information see annex F3. It can be concluded from the table that all available
renewable energy resources are contributing in total energy supply. The solar energy is
extensively used in residential sector. The biofuel are replacing the fossil fuels
completely in transport sector.
Table 18: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-BAU scenario,
(Source: own estimation based on the information in Annex F3, see Annex F9)
in million GJ
Sector/ Energy
sources
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
Total
Biomass
Hydro
Biofuel
Wind
Solar
Total
306.38
291.74
14.13
0.13
192.72
805.11
3.95
10.44
0.00
1.67
0.00
16.06
20.47
20.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
40.95
0.00
1.40
9.94
0.35
0.00
11.70
0.00
4.68
42.12
0.00
0.00
46.80
330.80
328.74
66.19
2.15
192.72
920.60
Figure 19 presents the share of different renewables the energy demand of various
sectors while figure 20 shows the percentage share of different renewables in total
energy supply6. In figure 19, it is shown that major sources are biomass, hydro and solar
in residential sector while the energy supply to industries is dominated by the biomass
6
Supply and consumption/demand are different term. In general the energy demand / consumption are
less than energy supply because of the losses occurs during the energy conversion process.
58
and hydro. The transport sector is totally depended on biofuel. Figure 20 shows that the
biomass has the highest contribution followed by the hydro, solar and biofuel in total
energy supply.
If the available potential of energy resources exploited to the full extent, 533.5 million GJ
electrical and 547 million GJ heat energy is available as a surplus energy after the
resource allocation, generating from various power plants (from hydropower, biomass
based gasification CHP plants and biomass based steam generation CHP plants). Also
the surplus ethanol amounted to 14 million GJ is available (see annexF6). These surplus
energy can be used for different economic purposes.
In summary, the BAU scenario with the population growth of 1.4 % and GDP growth of
4% (during the study period 2005-2050) has total energy demand of 809 million GJ. The
renewable energy available on sustainable basis is 189151 million GJ. Due to the
conversion losses and availability of energy sources especially solar energy, around
1900 million GJ can be exploited for final consumption. Therefore around 1095 million
surplus energy in form of electricity, heat and biofuel is available, that can be exported
or use for different purposes.
Figure 19: Renewables across sectors in 2050- BAU Scenario, (Source: Table 18)
59
Figure 20: Percentage Share of renewables in total energy supply in 2050- BAU Scenario,
(Source: Table 18)
5.2 The 2050-MG Scenario
The sectoral energy demand with the application of RETs for 2050-MG Scenario is
presented in table 19. This demand is 30% less than the original demand of 2112
million GJ (see table 9). This is mainly due to the application of RETs in residential and
commercial sector (for details see annex F).
Table 19: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- MG scenario, (Source: own estimation based on the
information in Annex F, see Annex F2)
Sector
Energy demand in
Million GJ
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
1256.37
24.71
73.93
21.12
84.49
Total
1460.62
The resource allocation across the consuming sectors is presented in table 20 (for
detailed information see annex F4).The residential sector energy supply meets by three
major sources biomass, solar and hydro. In this scenario solar has more contribution
than hydro and the reason is the extensive use of solar energy for cooking and lighting
in rural residential sector. Transport sector has increasing share of electricity (requires
more number of electrical vehicles) while industrial sector’s energy supply constitutes
biomass and hydro in equal proportion.
60
Table 20: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-MG scenario
in million GJ
Sector/ Energy
sources
Biomass
Residential
Hydro
Biofuel
Wind
Solar
Total
1045.54
307.06
14.13
0.61
347.96
1715.30
Commercial
14.54
15.75
0.00
1.19
0.00
31.48
Industrial
36.96
36.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
73.93
Agriculture
0.00
2.53
17.95
0.63
0.00
21.12
Transport
0.00
36.13
48.36
0.00
0.00
84.49
1097.05
398.44
80.45
2.43
347.96
1926.32
Total
Figure 21 is the graphical representation of table 20. Figure 22 shows the percentage
share of renewable fuel in total energy supply. It is found that biomass has the highest
share followed by hydro, solar and biofuel.
If the available potentials are exploited to the full extent around 226 million GJ electrical
and 432 million GJ heat energy is available as a surplus energy after the resource
allocation, generating from various power plants (from hydropower, biomass based
gasification CHP plants and biomass based steam generation CHP plants). These
surplus energies can be used for different economic purposes (see annex F7).
In summary, the MG scenario with the population growth of 1.4% and the GDP growth
of 6% (during the study period 2005-2050) has total energy demand of 1460 million GJ.
The renewable energy available on sustainable basis is 189151 million GJ. Due to the
conversion losses and availability of energy sources especially solar energy, around
2118 million GJ can be supplied for final consumption. Therefore around 658 million
surplus energy in form of electricity and heat is available that can be exported or use for
different purposes.
61
Figure 21: Share of renewables across sectors in 2050- MG Scenario, (Source: Table 20)
Figure 22: Percentage share of renewables in total energy supply in 2050- MG Scenario,
(Source: Table 20)
62
5.3 The 2050-HG Scenario
The sectoral energy demand with the application of RETs for 2050-HG Scenario is
presented in table 21. This demand is 30% less than the original demand of 6222
million GJ (see table 9). This is mainly due to the application of RETs in residential and
commercial sector. For details see annex F.
Table 21: The sectoral energy demand in 2050- HG scenario
(Source: own estimation based on the information in Annex F, see Annex F2)
Sector
Energy demand
in Million GJ
Residential
Commercial
3701.36
72.81
Industrial
Agriculture
217.8
Transport
62.23
Total
248.91
4303.1
The resource allocation across the consuming sectors is presented in table 22 (for
detailed information, see annex F5). The residential sector energy demand cannot meet
by the available energy resources. The column under ‘others’ category shows the
amount of energy in deficit that cannot be fulfilled by exploiting the available resources in
sustainable way. The 90% of transport sector’s energy supply is met by electricity, it
means majority of the transport should be based on electricity to realize this pictures.
Table 22: The share of energy resources across sectors in 2050-HG scenario,
(Source: own estimation based on the information in Annex F5, see Annex F9)
in million GJ
Sector/Energy
sources
Residential
Biomass
Hydro
Biofuel
Wind
Solar
Others
1234.45
2.21
14.13
0
1025.11
5.48
65.53
0
1.8
0
72.81
108.9
108.9
0
0
0
217.8
Agriculture
0
16.8
43.56
1.87
0
62.23
Transport
0
226.15
22.76
0
0
248.91
1348.82
419.58
80.45
3.67
1025.11
Commercial
Industrial
Total
1544.07
Total
1544.07
3819.97
4421.7
Figure 23 is the graphical representation of table 22 and the representation in
accordance with the data in the table.
Figure 24 shows the percentage share of different renewables in total energy supply.
The required contribution from other energy sources is the highest 35% followed by the
biomass, solar and hydro. This energy deficit amounted around 1544 million GJ, can be
63
generated by installing coal, atomic power plant which is not a sustainable solution or
extracting the power of sun, which is only possible by technological breakthrough.
In summary, the HG scenario with the population growth of 1.4% and the GDP growth
of 9% (during the study period 2005-2050) has total energy demand of 4303 million GJ.
The renewable energy available on sustainable basis is 189151 million GJ. Due to the
conversion losses and availability of energy sources especially solar energy, around
1544 million GJ energy in deficit to meet the demand. This amount of energy deficit can
only be fulfilled by importing energy or by technical breakthrough in future.
Figure 23: Share of renewables across sectors in 2050-HG, (Source: Table 22)
64
Figure 24: Percentage share of renewables in total energy supply in 2050-HG Scenario,
(Source: Table 22)
65
66
6 DISCUSSION
This thesis develops three future pictures to explore the possibilities to meet the
increased level of future energy demand by renewables due to the economic and
population development. Based on the results obtained in section 5, this section
describes the possibilities/ options to reach the aim of the study (i.e. meeting the future
energy demand with renewable energy resources in sustainable manner).
The original demand is 1170, 2112, 6223 million GJ for BAU, MG and HG scenario
respectively. The application of RETs in demand side reduces the demand to 809, 1460
and 4300 million GJ in BAU, MG and HG scenario respectively. By comparing the
current and future energy demand it can be said that the energy needs in Nepal is
increased from 367 million GJ in year 2005 to 809 million GJ in BAU, 1460 million GJ in
MG and 4300 million GJ in HG scenario in year 2050.
To meet the aim and objectives of the study, assessment of the potential and allocation
of the renewable energy resources across the sectors in each scenario resources have
been done. During this, the sustainability of the renewable energy resources in
exploiting and using energy has been duly considered. This has been done by the
assessing the appropriateness of technology and resources across the sectors. The
main focus has been given to optimize the use of renewable energy resources to meet
the future energy demand in sustainable manner. Considering all the factors of
sustainable energy supply the amount of energy required for supply
have been
estimated to 921, 1926 and 4422 million GJ in BAU, MG and HG scenario respectively..
The percentage contribution of renewables is however 100% in total energy supply since
this study consider only the renewable energy sources to meet the future demand
except in HG scenario where there is huge deficit in renewable energy supply to fulfill
the demand.
Although the contribution of renewables in year 2005 was around 90% but their supply
and uses were highly unsustainable, inefficient and health hazardous which is already
described in the earlier sections. In Nepal the energy use per capita in year 2005 was
lowest (0.46 toe, see section 3.3) in the world. Even this trend continues in future there
would be a huge energy crisis due to the population and economic growth.
67
This thesis work identifies hydro, solar and biomass as major renewable energy
resources in Nepal. The total renewable energy access only about 2418 million GJ
(excluding solar) on sustainable basis. It is also found that the need of renewable only
fuel supply to meet the demand is only possible by the extensive use of solar energy in
rural residential sector which also helps to meet the objectives of the study. Therefore
harnessing of solar energy with biomass and hydro energy will help to establish
renewable based sustainable energy system in Nepal. Further this study has concluded,
the future energy situation with current trend has to be discontinued in order to satisfy
the aim of the study. Therefore in this report, emphasis has been given to the
sustainable use of these major energy sources.
The rational for using solar energy with the fact that it is inexhaustible source of energy
and has several advantages. Also there is a high possibility of breakthrough in solar
technology due to the continuous research and development in this field. Further
sufficient solar insolation (4.5 KWh/m2.day) in majority of the days (300 days) in a year
and growing popularity in residential sector of Nepal makes it one of the major energy
sources. Taking into account all that, this study has found out that solar energy can meet
the residential sector energy demand (highest energy consumer) in most sustainable
manner especially in rural areas. Therefore the priority has been given to the solar
energy during the resource allocation and made its contribution around 20% in total
energy supply in all scenarios.
Rational for using agriculture residues for energy purposes with the fact that it is highly
underutilized in past and estimated potential is high due to growth is agriculture sector.
In year 2005 only 7% of the total potential of agriculture residues was used for energy
purposes and their use characterized by inefficiency and indoor pollutions. In year 2005,
if the total potential of agriculture residues was only used for energy purpose more than
two thirds of the total energy requirement of the country can be supplied solely from
agricultural residues while considering the heating value of the resources [6]. There is
high possibility of increased production of agriculture residues because it depends on
the growth of agriculture sector. At present, Nepal’s agriculture sector highly
underutilized due to the lack of infrastructure and modern inputs (i.e. irrigation, improved
seeds, modern technology and fertilizers etc.). In future the situation will improve and
agriculture production will increase in order to sustain the growing population. Therefore
68
this thesis assumes agriculture residues as a major biomass fuel that can significantly
contribute in future energy supply.
The hydropower is perceived by the government as only one natural resource that can
earn foreign exchange by exporting it to the neighboring countries, but the various
concerns and constraints jeopardize their future (see section 4.4.5.1). The reason to
encourage export oriented hydropower plants is to reduce the huge trade deficit with
neighbouring countries like India. Further hydropower development requires huge capital
and investment in this sector can only be possible by the international donor agencies or
by the private player from outside of the country. They are interested only when they are
ensured about the return on their capital investment which can be easily possible by
exporting hydro electricity to neighbouring country India (by making an agreement that
guarantees the power purchase). Further due to slower industrial growth and fragile
economic environment, investor are unable to see in near future they are able to sell
their electricity within the country and get the good return on their investment.
This thesis considers all the sustainability aspects to develop hydropower and
accordingly estimates the potential.
Mainly with these three major resources (also small quantity of biofuel), this study has
proposed the sustainable energy supply system for each future picture.
One of the aspects of sustainable energy system is the efficient demand side
management. However it involves various factors such as changing habits, income,
lifestyles, technologies and efficiency etc., but in this report only the role of technology in
residential sector demand side management have been (highest energy consuming
sector with highly energy inefficient sector) taken into consideration. The reason is the
uncertainty and small share in total energy consumptions in other sectors limits the
analysis of technological role in demand side management of these sectors. Further to
decrease the other sectors energy use requires big investment in infrastructure which
further requires the bold decision from all the sides which is quite uncertain in context of
Nepal. The scope of energy demand reduction in residential and commercial sector
seems achievable because effective investment can be rendered in area for area,
building for building, houses for houses instead of the whole solution for other sector
such as transportation or industrial sector. With these facts and reasons it has been
69
concluded that the effective demand side management with application of technology in
major energy consumer sector (residential) will significantly contribute towards the aim
of the study and present the clear picture about the total energy demand in each
scenario. The major technologies consider to reduce the energy demand in residential
and commercial are efficient cooking stoves and solar cooker for cooking, passive solar
building design for lighting and space heating and solar water heating system. These
technologies seem viable in future with support from various agencies in the future.
However this requires proper planning and implementation with investment plan.
Based on the sustainable energy system principles, three future pictures for Nepalese
energy system have been presented where the time perspective stretches far forward in
the time to 2050. The future pictures show generally how a future energy need can be
fulfilled which further depends on how and which choices have to make within the
sectors in the future and how their demand can be fulfilled. For all three picture energy
demand increases with compare to current level so the need of renewable fuel increases
accordingly. Only two scenarios (BAU and MG) meet the aim of the study where
sustainable energy supply meets their energy demand. For the HG scenario there is
huge energy deficit which can only be fulfilled by substantial amount of energy imports.
This is of course not the sustainable solution for the country since every country relies
on these limited and scares energy resources available for imports. Further the
increased rate of depletion of major energy sources especially fossil fuels will create
uncertainty in energy imports in future. On the other hand by utilizing the sustainable
energy resources to the full extent in both scenario (BAU and MG), Nepal has
substantial amount of surplus energy in different form (see annex F6, F7), that can be
export to earn foreign exchange or to utilised in other sectors for economic growth.
This study does not recommend any of the future pictures because the purpose is not
comparing the pictures rather to present the sustainable energy solution for different
growth situations in Nepal. Nevertheless this study's future pictures have to be taken
forward in order to establish sustainable energy system at different growth rates.
However it is a time consuming process and requires proper planning, implementation
and commitment from the all sides. It is up to the decision maker whether to establish
sustainable energy system or grow rapidly by overlooking it.
70
The future pictures developed in the study are build on a majority of the assumptions
which have been described in earlier sections and hence it is up to the reader to decide
its fairness, the assumptions and the future pictures relevance and validity by comparing
with other energy future studies. The assumptions of the study are mainly based on the
current trend in energy sector of Nepal. The assumptions related to the technology
directly build on current trends and overestimations of future technological developments
have been avoided. In this study, those technology solutions have been presented that
already exist today or is in reality within a near future. However future pictures are
uncertain about whether the existing technology remains in 2050 or what technological
breakthrough plays vital role in future.
The purpose of this study is to create visions and to aware all operators, politicians,
entrepreneurs as well as individual citizens about these pictures. These all three pictures
have perspective on the sustainable level of energy use in future. Therefore these future
pictures can be the basis for the long term planning of Nepal’s energy sector. Further
these future pictures present various technologies and measures that can be adopted in
early stage since changes in energy system happen slowly. The incorporation of these
measures in early stage planning would help to establish the sustainable energy system.
The results from the future pictures are not functioned as landmark in planning and for
continued investments but can as a whole be used in the strategic work around energy
questions.
The scanarios have not been analyzed on the basis of a cost perspective which is the
key to realize these future pictures. Therefore further study from cost and benefit
perspective will certainly helpful to realize these pictures. The selection of
measures/alternatives to this study is limited compared with the alternatives that exist,
available and possible for the future. However, the selection reflects those solutions as
the majority of energy future studies stress as plausible and current.
There are some other criteria not considered in this study that will be relevant in future
and need to be considered (e.g. climate and health problems, land use, equality,
resource use, aesthetics, economy, social aspects etc.). A future study by incorporating
those relevant factors would be helpful to realize these pictures.
71
The road to establish sustainable energy system in Nepal has been omitted but it is one
of the crucial parts to realize the future pictures developed in the study. The careful
study, analysis and discussion about how to established sustainable energy system in
Nepal by identifying the areas and the players that have key role in such a development
are the main tasks to laying down the roads to realize those pictures perhaps the
important subject for future study.
In this study backcasting method is implemented to develop the future scenarios. The
work load depends on the aspirations one has, and the level of details required. So the
difficulty lies precisely to assess and to decide the detail dissolution of the future
pictures. A clear and explicit objective wording facilitates to work with the structure of the
future pictures. The problem with backcasting method or in any future study the inherent
uncertainties because it permits closest infinite number of possible future pictures with
closer infinite possible alternatives and by combining together various measures appear
to future pictures. Another problem with backcasting method is the pictures are not
based on the condition of true society so there is a risk that realizing off future pictures
may not achieve the objectives. Further the society in 50 years has biggest probability to
change in entirely different compared to today’s society so these pictures may be
irrelevant in future.
In this study a stage has been omitted in backcasting methods, namely stage 4 (see
section 2.1) about how the future pictures can be implemented. Beside the creation of
the future pictures this is perhaps the core of backcasting study which requires thorough
understandings about decision-making processes and identification and involvement of
the stakeholders also the economic assessments. Further reason for omission of this
stage because the scope of the study will be too big and could not be completed due to
time and resource limitations.
72
7 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS
This study concludes that in two out of three scenarios (BAU and MG), a renewable
based sustainable energy supply is fully possible on the basis of the demarcations have
been done and the methodology has been used in the study. According to those two
future pictures the sustainably energy supply is only possible through the extensive
application of RETs in demand and supply side energy management. The energy
demand in high growth scenario cannot be met through sustainable energy supply due
to the higher energy demand than supply. The future pictures consider the existing
technology and the technology in near future in order to realize the future pictures in
reality.
In two scenarios; the business as usual (BAU) and the medium growth (MG) , the whole
energy demand can be meet by the renewable energy sources with the extensive
application of renewable energy technologies (RETs) such as solar, biomass, wind
power technologies. The future picture develops on the basis of population and
economic growth and the high economic growth picture (HG) has a high energy demand
and cannot be fulfilled in a sustainable manner. The major future challenge appears in
this study is to limits the economic and population growth and follow the sustainable
energy path or to overlook them. However lots can be done to reduce the gap between
supply and demand in future with the help of technology, changing lifestyles and
behavior, improving efficiency, innovations and new ideas.
The choice among the future pictures has not been made with the fact that, they are self
fulfilling in nature and developed for different context (i.e. for different population and
economic growth). This study rather estimates how much growth is sufficient to sustain
the renewable energy supply.
The extensive promotion of RETs in all energy consuming sectors, national energy plan
for the promotion of RETs, building code for energy efficient building, implementation of
energy efficiency improvement programmes and the application of new energy
technologies are some of the measures should be taken by the all stakeholders in order
to realise these scenario (i.e. to established the sustainable energy system). Last but not
least, a strong commitment from the government side to promote RETs would certainly
pave the path to establish sustainable society in Nepal.
73
74
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77
78
9 ANNEXES
79
Annexes A: Nepal Energy Situation
Annexes A1: Nepal Energy Supply Demand Balance, Year 2004/057
in 000 GJ
Fuel type
Total
Primary
Energy
Primary
Production Import Export supply
Statistical
Differences
Thermal
Energy Final
Generation Loss
Supply Residential Industrial Commercial Transport
Agriculture
Others Total
Traditional
322105
0
0
322105
0
0
0 322105
317798
2245
2049
0
0
13 322105
Fuel wood
286960
0
0
286960
0
0
0 286960
284138
773
2049
0
0
0 286960
Agricultural
Residue
13964
0
0
13964
0
0
0
13964
12478
1473
0
0
0
13
13964
Animal Dung
21181
0
0
21181
0
0
0
21181
21181
0
0
0
0
0
21181
Commercial
8828
36941
399
45727
-356
49
2442
43334
11815
10516
3286
13894
3085
599
43195
0
29846
0
30202
-356
0
0
30202
9061
1331
2893
13873
2905
0
30063
Petroleum
LPG
0
3821
0
3821
0
0
0
3821
2008
0
1700
113
0
0
3821
Motor Spirit
0
2548
0
2534
15
0
0
2534
0
0
0
2534
0
0
2534
Air Turbine
Fuel
0
2472
0
2417
55
0
0
2417
0
0
0
2417
0
0
2417
Kerosene
0
8460
0
8659
-199
0
0
8659
7053
413
1192
0
0
0
8659
HS Diesel
0
11685
0
11911
-225
0
0
11911
0
199
0
8807
2904
0
11911
Light Diesel
0
3
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
1
0
3
Fuel Oils
0
109
0
111
-2
0
0
111
0
-28
0
0
0
0
-28
Others
0
747
0
747
0
0
0
747
0
747
0
0
0
0
747
233
6227
0
6459
0
0
0
6459
25
6434
0
0
0
0
6459
8596
869
399
9066
0
49
2442
6673
2729
2750
394
21
180
599
6673
Renewable
1955
0
0
1955
0
0
0
1955
1955
0
0
0
0
0
1955
Biogas
1903
0
0
1903
0
0
0
1903
1903
0
0
0
0
0
1903
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
50
Solar
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
Others
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
332888
36941
399
369787
-356
49
2442 367394
331568
12761
5335
13894
3085
Coal
Electricity
Micro Hydro
Grand Total
7
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat.
80
612 367255
Annexes A2: Historical Trend of Energy Consumption by Fuel Type8
Fuel type/ Year
in 000 GJ
Share %
2005 in 1995
Share %
in 2005
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
258212
230651
10354
17207
263634
235495
10571
17568
267138
237555
11645
17937
272893
242687
11893
18314
278748
247884
12166
18698
284735
253199
12446
19091
290859
258636
12732
19492
302085
269158
13026
19901
308606
274960
13327
20319
315269
280888
13635
20746
322105
286960
13964
21181
91.14%
81.41%
3.65%
6.07%
87.71%
78.14%
3.80%
5.77%
24784
27759
29440
32741
34851
44956
43344
43852
43271
44863
43195
8.75%
11.76%
19119
643
1172
1357
6559
8597
149
406
236
2839
2826
21615
916
1380
1469
7568
9501
174
341
266
3085
3059
23623
1075
1497
1731
8841
9783
78
320
299
2540
3278
26619
1131
1572
1860
10226
11402
38
54
337
2579
3542
28180
1232
1674
2009
10696
11978
21
189
380
2893
3778
30224
1508
1862
2056
12006
11780
156
428
428
10504
4227
31286
1975
1984
2283
11472
12367
134
588
482
7446
4612
32305
2401
2119
1716
14018
10857
94
578
522
6481
5066
32116
2761
2259
1911
12641
11378
24
554
588
5721
5434
31596
3257
2276
2316
11271
11369
23
421
663
7292
5974
30063
3821
2534
2417
8659
11911
3
-28
747
6459
6673
6.75%
0.23%
0.41%
0.48%
2.32%
3.03%
0.05%
0.14%
0.08%
1.00%
1.00%
8.19%
1%
0.69%
0.66%
2.36%
3.24%
0.00%
-0.01%
0.20%
1.76%
1.82%
Renewables
Biogas
Micro Hydro
Solar
Others
319
298
21
0
0
435
412
23
0
0
561
536
25
0
0
705
678
27
0
0
856
826
30
0
0
1015
981
34
0
0
1217
1179
38
0
0
1432
1392
40
0
0
1665
1620
44
1
0
1779
1731
47
1
0
1955
1903
50
2
0
0.11%
0.11%
0.01%
0
0
0.53%
0.52%
0.01
0
0
Grand Total
283315
291827
297139
306339
314454
330706
335421
347369
353542
361910
367255
100.00%
100.00%
Traditional
Fuel wood
Agricultural Residue
Animal Dung
Commercial
Petroleum
LPG
Motor Spirit
Air Turbine Fuel
Kerosene
HS Diesel
Light Diesel
Fuel Oils
Others
Coal
Electricity
8
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat
81
Annexes A3: Percentage share of sectoral energy consumption at different years9
in percentage
Sector/Year
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Transport
Agriculture
Total
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
92.19 91.77 92.42 92.01 91.64 89.36
3.91 4.03 2.16 2.26 2.39 4.75
0.9 0.97 1.07 0.95 1.02 1.12
2.77 2.99 4.02 4.42 4.72 3.87
0.23 0.24 0.33 0.36 0.23
0.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average % Rounded %
89.9 90.71 90.72 90.31 90.46
91.04455
90
3.88 3.61 3.39 3.79 3.47
3.421818
3.5
1.23 1.42 1.48 1.47 1.45
1.189091
1.5
4.05 3.46 3.59 3.63 3.78
3.754545
4
0.94
0.8 0.82
0.8 0.84
0.59
1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Annexes A4: Historical Trend in Per Capita Energy Consumption11,1011
Year
Total Energy Consumption in
000' GJ
Population in Millions
Energy Consumption Per Capita
in GJ
Energy Consumption Per Capita
in TOE
World’s Average Energy
Consumption Per Capita in TOE
9
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
283315 291827 297139 306339 314454 330706 335421 347369 353542 361910 367255
21.67
22.19
22.72
23.26
23.82
24.39
24.90
25.41
25.94
26.48
27.03
13.07
13.15
13.08
13.17
13.20
13.56
13.47
13.67
13.63
13.67
13.59
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.32
1.63
0.32
0.32
0.32
1.67
0.32
0.32
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat
´12
2005
1 GJ = 0.0234622 TOE
11 Population data source World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database
82
Annexes A5: Per Capita Energy Consumption by Fuel Type in GJ/ capita12 13
Year
Traditional fuel (Biomass)
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
Renewables
12
Population data of Annex A4
13
Fuels data of Annex A2
1995
11.91
0.88
0.13
0.13
0.01
1996
11.88
0.97
0.14
0.14
0.02
1997
11.76
1.04
0.11
0.14
0.02
1998
11.73
1.14
0.11
0.15
0.03
1999
11.70
1.18
0.12
0.16
0.04
83
2000
11.67
1.24
0.43
0.17
0.04
2001
11.68
1.26
0.30
0.19
0.05
2002
11.89
1.27
0.26
0.20
0.06
2003
11.90
1.24
0.22
0.21
0.06
2004
11.91
1.19
0.28
0.23
0.07
2005
11.92
1.11
0.24
0.25
0.07
Annexes B: Population Development
Annex B1: Population growth rate in different periods (from 2005 to 2050)14
in percentage
Period
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Total annual growth rate
2.08
1.97
1.88
1.76
1.6
1.43
1.29
1.16
1.02
0.88
Rural annual growth
Urban Annual Growth
rate
rate
1.53
5.27
1.38
4.87
1.2
4.67
0.99
4.42
0.73
4.13
0.46
3.83
0.2
3.56
-0.06
3.3
-0.32
3.03
-0.61
2.75
Annexes B2: Percentage of Population resides in different areas17and different
Ecological Regions15 until 2050
Urban Population in
Year %
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Rural Population in
%
16
18
21
24
27
30
34
38
42
46
84
82
79
76
73
70
66
62
58
54
Percentage of Rural Population in
Ecological Regions
Mountain
Hill
Plain
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
10
40
Annexes B3: Population Projection period 2005-2050
Year Total
Rural
Urban
population Population Population
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
27033
29802
32711
35693
38641
41484
44230
46855
49294
51502
22788
24404
25904
27212
28220
28875
29165
29078
28615
27753
4245
5398
6807
8481
10421
12609
15065
17778
20679
23749
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
in thousand
Rural Population Distribution in Ecological Regions
Mountain
Hill
Plain
10% of Rural
40%of Rural
50%of Rural
Population
Population
Population
2279
9115
11394
2440
9762
12202
2590
10362
12952
2721
10885
13606
2822
11288
14110
2888
11550
14438
2916
11666
14582
2908
11631
14539
2862
11446
14308
2775
11101
13877
14
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database Available on
http://esa.un.org/unup/index.asp?panel=3.
15
Based on the information on of rural population distribution available on http://www.cbs.gov.np. The
data are verified from different sources.
84
.
Annexes C: Economic Development
Estimated GDP until 2050
In million rupees16
Year
GDP @ 4% growth GDP @ 6% growth GDP @ 9%growth
17
2005
320729
320729
320729
2010
390216
429208
493481
2015
474757
574377
759282
2020
577615
768646
1168250
2025
702757
1028621
1797497
2030
855011
1376527
2765672
2035
1040252
1842104
4255329
2040
1265625
2465151
6547352
2045
1539827
3298928
10073912
2050
1873434
4414710
15499962
16
17
Figures are rounded
GDP at constant price is used ; source:
Central
http://www.cbs.gov.np)
85
Bureau of
Statistics, Nepal (available on
Annex D: Energy demand projection until 2050
Flow chart of estimation of future energy demand
Economic Development
Future
Energy
Demand until 2050
until 2050
Population Development
until 2050
Sectoral energy demand is calculated
based on their share in past years (trend)
Commercial
Sector
Energy Demand
Transport
Sector
Energy Demand
Agriculture
Sector
Energy Demand
Industrial
Sector
Energy Demand
Residential
Energy Demand
Energy demand for different purposes
Energy demand across different areas based on the
based on the fuel share in past (trend)
proportion of the population resides in those areas
Purpose 1
Purpose 2
Urban Energy
Rural Energy
Demand
Demand
Purpose 3
Sector
Rural energy demand by ecological belts based on the
proportion of rural population resides in those belts
Energy demand
Energy demand
Energy demand
in Mountain
in Hill
in Plain
Residential sector energy demand by end use is calculated on the basis of information (% share of different
household purposes in total household energy use) found in related literatures
Energy
Cooking
demand
in
Energy
Lighting
86
demand
in
Energy demand in Space heating
Energy demand projection by regression curve
In this report with the use of regression quantitative predictions of one variable (energy
consumption per capita) is done from the values of another (GDP per capita)
Steps to project the future energy demand:
1. Take the past data of population, GDP, energy consumption (data from 1995 to 2005
is used here)
2. Calculate the energy consumption per capita
3. Calculate GDP per capita
4. Draw the regression curve between energy consumption per capita (on x-axis) and
GDP per capita (on y- axis)
5. Use the regression equation to project the energy consumption per capita (y variable)
so the future energy demand since future GDP per capita ((x variable) is known.
Energy Consumption/ Population (In kgoe)
Figure: The regression curve between energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita
period, 1995-2005
322.00
320.00
318.00
316.00
y = 0.0087x + 216.48
R2 = 0.8187
314.00
312.00
310.00
308.00
306.00
304.00
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
GDP/ Population ( in rupees)
The regression equation is y = 0.0087x + 216.48
Where variable x and y refers to energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita
respectively.
The r² value (the square of the correlation coefficient) is 0.8187, indicating that 81.87%
of the variation in one variable may be explained by the other. So it is good correlation
curve to predict the future energy demand
87
Annexes D1: The data* for regression analysis period 1995-2005
Energy
Total Energy
GDP in
GDP per
Consumption Consumption
million
Population capita in
per capita in in million
Year
rupees
in million
rupees
kgoe
kgoe
1995
219177
22
10113
307
6647
1996
230875
22
10404
309
6847
1997
243022
23
10696
307
6972
1998
250172
23
10754
309
7187
1999
261389
24
10974
310
7378
2000
277374
24
11373
318
7759
2001
292943
25
11767
316
7870
2002
291241
25
11460
321
8150
2003
301095
26
11606
320
8295
2004
312267
26
11792
321
8491
2005
320729
27
11864
319
8617
*Figures are rounded
Total Energy
Consumption Total Energy
in million
Consumption
TOE
in million GJ
7
283
7
292
7
297
7
306
7
314
8
331
8
335
8
347
8
354
8
362
9
367
Annexes D2: Energy demand projection* (in BAU Scenario) until 2050
Energy
Total Energy
GDP in
GDP per
Consumption Consumption
million
Population capita in
per capita in in million
Year
rupees
in million
rupees
kgoe
kgoe
2005
320729
27
11864
319
8617
2010
390216
30
13093
330
9847
2015
405825
33
12406
324
10612
2020
577615
36
16183
357
12752
2025
702757
39
18187
375
14479
2030
855011
41
20611
396
16419
2035 1040252
44
23519
421
18625
2040 1265625
47
27011
451
21154
2045 1539827
49
31237
488
24068
2050 1873434
52
36376
533
27448
*Figures are rounded
Total Energy
Consumption Total Energy
in million
Consumption
TOE
in million GJ
9
367
10
420
11
452
13
544
14
617
16
700
19
794
21
902
24
1026
27
1170
Annexes D3: Energy demand projection* (in MG Scenario) until 2050
Energy
Total Energy
GDP in
GDP per
Consumption Consumption
million
Population capita in
per capita in in million
Year
rupees
in million
rupees
kgoe
kgoe
2005
320729
27
11864
319
8617
2010
429208
30
14402
342
10186
2015
574377
33
17559
369
12078
2020
768646
36
21535
404
14414
2025 1028621
39
26620
448
17314
2030 1376527
41
33182
505
20956
2035 1842104
44
41648
579
25601
2040 2465151
47
52612
674
31590
2045 3298928
49
66923
799
39372
2050 4414710
52
85720
962
49557
*Figures are rounded
88
Total Energy
Consumption Total Energy
in million
Consumption
TOE
in million GJ
9
367
10
434
12
515
14
614
17
738
21
893
26
1091
32
1346
39
1678
50
2112
Annexes D4: Energy demand projection* (in HG Scenario) until 2050
Year
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Energy
GDP in
GDP per
Consumption
million
Population capita in
per capita in
rupees
in million
rupees
kgoe
320729
27
11864
319
493481
30
16558
361
759282
33
23212
418
1168250
36
32731
501
1797497
39
46518
621
2765672
41
66668
796
4255329
44
96209
1054
6547352
47
139735
1432
10073912
49
204363
1994
15499962
52
300960
2835
*Figures are rounded
Total Energy
Consumption Total Energy
Total Energy
in million
Consumption
Consumption
18
19
kgoe
in million TOE in million GJ
8617
9
367
10745
11
458
13687
14
583
17891
18
763
24003
24
1023
33042
33
1408
46596
47
1986
67105
67
2860
98314
98
4190
145999
146
6223
Annexes D5: Sectoral energy demand projection20 (in BAU) until 2050
in million GJ*
Year
Residential Transport Industrial Commercial Agriculture Total
2005
331
15
13
6
4
2010
378
17
15
6
4
2015
430
19
17
7
5
2020
489
22
19
8
5
2025
555
25
22
9
6
2030
630
28
24
10
7
2035
714
32
28
12
8
2040
811
36
32
14
9
2045
923
41
36
15
10
2050
1053
47
41
18
12
367
420
478
544
617
700
794
902
1026
1170
*Figures are rounded
Annexes D6: Sectoral energy demand projection* (in MG) until 2050
in million GJ
Year
Residential Transport Industrial Commercial Agriculture Total
2005
331
15
13
6
4
2010
391
17
15
7
4
2015
463
21
18
8
5
2020
553
25
22
9
6
2025
664
30
26
11
7
2030
804
36
31
13
9
2035
982
44
38
16
11
2040
1212
54
47
20
13
2045
1510
67
59
25
17
2050
1901
84
74
32
21
18
1TOE= 1000 kgoe
19
1 TOE= 42.6217 GJ
20
367
434
515
614
738
893
1091
1346
1678
2112
The sectoral energy demand is calculated on the basis of their share in past trend in total energy
consumption. see annex A3
89
Annexes D7: Sectoral energy demand projection* (in HG) until 2050
in million GJ
Year
Residential Transport Industrial Commercial Agriculture Total
2005
331
15
13
6
4
2010
412
18
16
7
5
2015
525
23
20
9
6
2020
686
31
27
11
8
2025
921
41
36
15
10
2030
1267
56
49
21
14
2035
1787
79
70
30
20
2040
2574
114
100
43
29
2045
3771
168
147
63
42
2050
5600
249
218
93
62
*Figures are rounded
367
458
583
763
1023
1408
1986
2860
4190
6223
Annexes D8: Percentage share of end use in total household energy consumption
Area
Urban
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Cooking
Space-heating
60.00%
30.00%
19.00%
74.00%
82.00%
16.00%
73.00%
23.00%
in million GJ
Lighting & Other
Purposes
10.00%
7.00%
2.00%
4.00%
Annexes D9: Residential sector energy demand21 by area, ecological region, end
use, scenario
Scenario Area
Urban
2005
Rural
Ecological
Regionss/Use Cooking
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050BAU
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050-MG
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
Urban
2050-HG
21
Rural
Mountain
Hill
Plain
30
21
92
103
291
42
186
207
526
76
336
374
1549
223
990
1102
Space-heating
15
5
18
32
146
11
36
65
263
19
66
118
775
57
193
347
in million GJ
Lighting &
Other
Purposes
Total
5
50
2
28
2
112
6
141
49
485
4
57
5
227
11
284
88
877
7
102
8
410
20
512
258
2582
21
302
24
1207
60
1509
The residential sector energy demand in different areas and for different household uses is calculated
on the basis of proportion of population resides in the area and the percentage share of end use in total
household energy consumption . See annex B1, B2,D8
90
Annexes D10: Fossil Fuel Requirement22 for different scenarios
in million GJ
BAU
Residential
Transport
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Total
22
MG
37
47
10
27
11
132
Estimation based on the past trend
91
HG
67
84
18
48
20
236
196
249
52
142
59
698
Annex E: Energy Supply Potential
Annex E1: Conversion Factors
Units
Kilo Calorie
GJ
TCE
TOE
Kcal
GJ
1.00
238.8459
7000.00
10290.00
TCE
0.0041868
1.00
29.3076000
426217000.00
TOE
0.0001429
0.0341208
1.0000000
1.4542880
0.0000972
0.0234622
0.0687622
1.00
Annex E2: Energy Contents in various types of fuel
Fuel type
Fuelwood
Charcoal
Agricultural
Waste
Unit
tonne
m3
tonne
m3
Kcal
GJ
TCE
TOE
4000
2800
7100
2485
16.75
11.72
29.73
10.4
0.57
0.4
1.01
0.36
0.39
0.27
0.69
0.24
3000
12.56
0.43
0.29
Animal Dung*
tonne
m3
tonne
2600
10.89
0.37
0.25
Biogas
000 m3
5800
23
0.83
0.56
Ethanol
Coal
LPG
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
Motor Spirit
ATF
Kerosene
High Speed
Diesel
LDO
Furnace Oil
Electricity
Other
1.43
0.7
2.86
0.35
m3
tonne
m3
tonne
m3
0.86
0.58
11760
8000
11290
8640
11130
8660
11130
21.1
25.12
30.08
49.24
33.49
47.27
36.17
46.6
36.26
46.06
1.68
1014
1.61
1.23
1.59
1.24
1.59
1.14
0.78
1.1
0.84
1.08
0.84
1.08
0.611
1.637
0.71
1.41
0.78
1.29
0.78
1.29
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
9060
10960
9350
10960
9860
10560
37.93
45.89
39.15
45.89
41.28
44.21
1.29
1.57
1.34
1.57
1.41
1.51
0.88
1.07
0.91
1.07
0.96
1.03
0.83
1.21
0.85
1.17
0.93
1.07
MWh
860
3.6
0.12
0.08
5.78
6000
92
m3
tonne
m3
tonne
tonne
tonne
KL
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
l
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
tonne
kl
GWh from
oil
Annex E3: Hydropower
Big Hydropower23 -The technical feasible potential 45610 MW with the annual energy
production is 90.45 million GJ.
Micro hydro24 – 50 MW amounted 1.58 million GJ /year from numerous rivers and
rivulets especially in hill and mountain region.
Based on different literatures on potential the table presented the sustainable
hydropower potential until 2050
Category
Capacity
Scale
Range
Micro Hydro
<100KW
Medium
10-100 MW
100-300
Medium
MW
300-1000
Large
MW
Large
>1000 MW
Total
Number
of
Projects
Identified
NA
Total
Capacity
in MW
Total
Generation
Potential
GWh/ Year
Economically
exploitable
Energy
generation in
Million GJ/year
Sustainable
Energy
generation Until
2050,Million
GJ/year
157
50
6200
438
38000
2
137
2
137
47
7815
42056
151
151
20
5
9437
19463
42965
45723
50985
177202
165
184
638
0
129
420
23
WECS, 1996, Energy Synopsis Report- 1994/95 and WECS , 1992, Energy Synopsis Report -1990/91
TERMINAL REVIEW REPORT Rural Energy Development Programme, United Nations Development
Programme, Nepal
24
93
Annex E4: Fuel wood
25
Sustainable fuelwood supply from Accessible/Reachable area in Nepal
in 000 tons
Years
1978/79
Fuel wood from
different sources
1994/95
2000/01
2003/04
Average
Sustainable
potential
6691
6491
6478
6625.25
6500
6841
6.5 million tons fuelwood have 108.8 (6.5 X 16.75) million GJ energy
Based on the sustainable fuel wood production in ecological belts in past years is as
follows
Mountain contributes -
26% of total fuel wood supply.
Hill contributes
-
54% of total fuel wood supply.
Plain contributes
-
20% of total fuel wood supply.
Sustainable fuelwood production and supply until 2050
Ecological Belts
26
Off-Farm Supply
27
On Farm Supply
Total
Sustainable Fuel wood
Production in thousand tons
Plain Hills
Mountain
847
2945
1570
462
566
110
1309
3510
1680
Annual Energy Generation
in Million GJ
Plain Hills
Mountain
14
49
26
8
9
2
22
59
28
Annex E5: Agriculture residues29:
The projection of the agriculture residues is based on the agriculture growth of the
country. The Agriculture perspective plan (20 years plan) of Nepal envisages 5% growth
in agriculture sector. Based on 5% growth the table presented the production of
agriculture residues until 2050.
Potential Production of Agriculture residues until 2050
million tons
Year
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Production
Potential
16.02
20.45
26.10
33.31
42.51
54.26
69.25
88.38
112.80
143.97
25
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and
Energy Commission Secretariat
26
Fuel wood derived forest, shrub land, Grass land and other land use types is known as off-
farm supplies
27
Fuel wood derived from cultivated lands are here termed as the On-Farm fuel wood supplies
94
The energy content in 143.97
1808.64(143.97X12.56) million GJ
Out of total agriculture residues –
million
tons
of
agriculture
residues
is
6% produces in mountain region; 41% produces in hill region; 53% produces in Plain
Based on the ecological region, the production of agriculture residues and the so the
energy derived from them presented in table
Potential production of agriculture residues and the energy derived from them by ecological belts
Plain
Production
in million tons
Energy in million GJ
Hill
76.59
961.97
Mountain
59.17
743.18
Total
8.21
103.07
143.97
1808.22
Annex E6: Biogas Potential from Animal residues (Dung).
Based upon a study of the technical and geographic feasibility, it is estimated that a total
of 1.9 million biogas systems can be installed in Nepal: 57 percent in Plain, 37% in Hill
and 6% In Mountain regions28.but the feasible (economically and technically) potential is
about half a million units which can be increased up to one million units with
innovative financing (subsidy structures, co-operatives) and delivery structures (self
help building),
In Nepal, fixed-dome biogas reactors with digester capacities of 4, 6, 8 and 10m3 are
installed but 8m3 reactors are the most popular ones.
In this study, it is assumed that 0.2m3(conservative estimate) of biogas is generated by
one cubic meter of digester volume. Therefore, an average sized (8m3) biogas reactor
produces about 584m3 (14.13 GJ of energy) of biogas annually29.
Based on above explained assumption total energy generation from biogas is around
14.13 million GJ annually.
Out of total biogas production
Plain has 57% share equivalent to 8 million GJ,
Hill has 37% share equivalent to 5 million GJ.
Mountain has 6% share equivalent to 1 million GJ.
28
THE NEPAL BIOGAS SUPPORT PROGRAM:A SUCCESSFUL MODEL OF PUBLIC PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIP FOR RURAL HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SUPPLY by Sundar Bajgain & Indira Shakya
29
Kyoto protocol and Nepal’s energy sector,Shaligram Pokharel, Energy Policy 35 (2007) 2514–2525
95
Annex E7: Solar energy potential
Nepal has annual solar energy potential is around 26.6 million MW30.
The average sun shines days/year -30031
Average sun shine hour – 6.532
Annual energy generation is equivalent to 186732 million GJ (51870 million MWh)
The daily average solar insolation33 in different regions are
Mountain
- 5.01 kWh/m².day
Hills
- 5.09 kWh/m².day
Plain
- 3.96 kWh/m².day
Annex E8: Biogas potential from the Urban Waste.
In Nepal the urban waste contains 70% organic waste34
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Total Urban population until 2050 in million
Average daily domestic waste generation35 (m3/person)
Estimated total domestic waste generation (in m3/d)
Street waste generation 10% (3) (in m3/d)
Commercial waste generation 10% (3) (in m3/d)
Waste from institutions neighboring cities 10% (3) (in m3/d)
Estimated total daily waste generation (in m3/d)
Loose density (density at source) (ton/m3)
Estimated total daily waste generation (in tons)
organic waste @ 70%
36
Energy content @ 8553 KJ per kg of organic waste in (KJ)
Total energy /day by waste (GJ/day)
Annual energy by waste (million GJ/Year)
30
22.8400
0.0010
22844.0000
2284.4000
2284.4000
2284.4000
29697.2000
0.2250
6681.8700
4677.3090
40005023877
40005.0239
14.60
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and
Energy Commission Secretariat
31
http://crtnepal.org/
32
ENVIRONMENT STATISTICS OF NEPAL,2006, CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS KATHMANDU,
NEPAL
33
Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment in Nepal, Center for Energy Studies Institute of
Engineering, Tribhuvan University Pulchowk, Lalitpur ,November 2005
34
ENVIRONMENT STATISTICS OF NEPAL,2006, CENTRAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS KATHMANDU,
NEPAL
35
Generation, storage, collection and transportation of municipal solid waste – A case study in the city of
Kathmandu, capital of Nepal, R. Alam et al.,2006 , Waste Management xxx (2007) xxx–xxx
36
http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/challenge/publications/methanequickref.html
96
Method 2: To estimate the waste generation.
Regression equation for waste generation and Population
y=1.212x- 29 where y= waste generation in 100 tons/year
x = population in thousand
Urban Population until 2050--- 22844 Thousands.
Waste generation in 100 tons (y) = 1.212 X 22844 - 29 =27657.9280
Annual waste generation in tons/year
Organic [email protected]% in tons/year
Energy @ 8553 KJ per kg of organic waste
Annual energy from urban waste (million GJ)
2765792.80
1936054.96
16559078072880.00
16.56
This study reports takes average of both methods = 15.5 million GJ.
Annex E9: Biofuels
Ethanol:
About 70% of total sugarcane is processed in the sugar mills of Nepal. Nepal produced
2.59 million tonnes of sugarcane in 2006/07, out of which 1.813 million tonnes is used
for sugarcane processing. Taking average value 4.34% molasses generation from
sugarcane, sugar mills produce 78684.2 tonnes of molasses as the by-product. This
accounts 18045 m3 bio-ethanol productions annually.
The sugarcane production is increasing @ 5% annually growth 37
Potential production of ethanol until 2050
Year
Production in
Kilo Liter
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
16367.35
20889.34
34026.54
55425.65
90282.54
147060.74
147060.74 Kilo liter Ethanol produces energy 38 around 31 million GJ annually.
37
Project Idea Note of Project – Ethanol Blended Gasoline, Nepal, Dec 2006
38
Energy content in ethanol =21.1 MJ /liter
97
Biodiesel from energy crop (Jatropha)
Nepal has 2 million hector of unused land this study assumes 50% of total unused land
for energy crop named “Jatropha” plantation to produce biodiesel
Plantation of Jatropha in 1 hector yields around 600 liter of biodiesel and the energy
content is around 33 MJ/liter39.
The biodiesel production from Jatropha plants in 1 million hector is equivalent to 600
million liter which has energy content around 19.8 million GJ.
Annex E10: Potential of Renewable Fuels in Nepal
in million GJ
Biogas (Animal Waste)
Agriculture Residues
Fuel wood
Solar
Biogas from urban waste
Hydropower Large
Micro Hydro
Ethanol
Bio Diesel
Wind
Total
14.13
1808.22
108.88
186732.00
15.50
418.00
1.58
31.02
19.80
1.80
189150.92
Annex E11: Potential of Renewable Fuels in different regions
in million GJ
Types of Energy
Sources
Urban
Rural
Plain
Biogas (Rural)
Agriculture Residues
Fuel wood
Solar
Biogas from urban
waste
Hydropower Large
Micro Hydro
Ethanol
Bio Diesel
Wind
Total
39
Hills
8.05
961.97
21.93
Total
Mountain
5.23
743.18
58.80
0.85
103.07
28.15
15.50
15.50
991.96
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jatropha
98
1.10
0.47
808.31
132.54
14.13
1808.22
108.88
186732.00
15.50
418.00
1.58
31.02
19.80
1.80
189150.92
Annex F: Energy Supply & Demand Analysis
AnnexF1: Assumptions
With the application of Renewable Energy Technology the energy demand is reduced in
different household purposes.
The Efficient Cooking Stoves (ESC) reduces the energy demand for cooking to 40%40
The Passive Solar Building Design41 reduces the
Lighting demand by 10% and Heating Demand by 50%
For the urban residential sector and commercial sector it is assumed that 15% cooking
demand reduced due to solar water heating system42.
10% of commercial energy demand in remote mountain areas (e.g. Hotels in tourist and
trekking routes/places and, schools, hospitals and government offices in mountain areas
etc.).The percentage of reduction in energy demand in different regions with the
application of renewable energy technologies is shown in the table.
Areas
Urban Residential
& Commercial
Rural Residential
Sector
Cooking
Space-heating
Lighting & Other Purposes
15.00%
50.00%
15.00%
40.00%
50.00%
15.00%
Percentage share of energy demand by Sector, end use43,44
Sector
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Spaceheating
End use
Percentage
Share
Cooking
End use
Percentage
Share
Motive power
End use
Percentage
Share
Irrigation
65%
Lighting &
Other Purposes
20%
Lighting
15%
Process heat
40%
10%
Land
preparation
30%
70%
50%
Note: for residential sector end use percentage share presented in annex: D8
It is estimated 10% of the irrigation demand can be fulfill by wind pump in various regions in Nepal
40
Promotional issues on alternative energy technologies in Nepal ,Shaligram Pokharel, Energy Policy 31
(2003) 307–318
41
http://findsolar.com/
http://www.sunraysolar.net/solar-water-heater.htm
43
A Country Case Study Wood Energy Planning: Nepal, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat
Kathmandu, Nepal, April 2001.
44
Energy Synopsis Report: Nepal, 2006, Report No: 7, Seq. No. 489, Government of Nepal, Water and
Energy Commission Secretariat
42
99
The use of agriculture residues
For space heating and cooking. – Briquettes describes in section
For electricity and heat production in rural areas- biomass based gasification CHP plant
(electrical efficiency 25% and thermal efficiency 30%)45
For electricity and heat production in urban areas- biomass based steam production
CHP plant ( electrical efficiency 25% and thermal efficiency 40%)41
Flow chart of use of agriculture residues in different purposes´
Briquettes
In
Hill,
mountain
and
inaccessible regions
production
for local requirement of
Rest is used for heat and power generation in
biomass gasification based CHP Plants for local
industries
heating and cooking
Agriculture Residues
In Plain and accessible
regions
45
Briquettes production for local
Industrial
as well as urban requirement of
process
heating and cooking
production
EPA Combined Heat and Power Partnership ,Biomass CHP Catalog
100
heat
Electricity
and
heat
production
in
CHP
Plant in urban
areas
Annex F2: Detailed Energy Demand with the application of Renewable Energy
Technologies until 2050
in million GJ
Scenario
Sector
Residential
Area
Urban
Rural
Ecological
Belts/Use
Mountain
Hill
Plain
commercial
2050-BAU
Cooking
247.6
25.19
111.66
124.26
9.7
Motive power Lighting
16.38
Industrial
Irrigation
Scenario
Lighting &
Space-heating
Other Purposes Total
72.82
41.27
361.69
5.39
3.38
33.96
18.16
3.86
133.68
32.63
9.65
166.53
1.75
2.24
13.69
4.09
Agriculture
Land preparation
3.51
8.19
Transport
46.8
Sector
Residential
Area
Urban
Rural
Ecological
Belts/Use
Mountain
Hill
Plain
commercial
2050-MG
Cooking
Space-heating
447.04
131.48
45.49
9.73
201.61
32.78
224.35
58.91
17.5
3.17
Process heat
20.47
11.7
46.8
808.99
Grand Total
Lighting & Other
Purposes
Total
74.51
653.03
6.1
61.31
6.97
241.36
17.42
300.67
4.04
24.71
Motive power lighting
process heat
29.57
7.39
36.96
irrigation
Land preparation
6.34
14.79
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
84.49
Grand Total
Scenario
21.12
84.49
1460.62
Industrial
Agriculture
Irrigation
Land preparation
18.67
43.56
Residential
commercial
2050-HG
73.93
Lighting & Other
Cooking
Space-heating
Purposes
Total
1317.01
387.35
219.5 1923.86
134
28.67
17.96
180.63
593.96
96.58
20.52
711.06
660.96
173.54
51.31
885.81
51.57
9.33
11.9
72.81
Motive power Lighting
Process heat
87.12
21.78
108.9
217.8
Sector
Transport
Area
Urban
Rural
Ecological
Belts/Use
40.95
Mountain
Hill
Plain
62.23
248.91
Grand Total
101
248.91
4303.1
Annex F3: Energy Demand & Supply Situation in 2050-BAU scenario
Industrial process
heat
Gasification based
CHP Plant
Steam based CHP
Plants
Fuel Wood
Cooking/ECS
Gasification based
CHP
Heat
20.47
822.70
899.71
108.88
58.98
56.18
0.00
20.47
Energy
form
218.15
218.15
Heat
261.78
261.78
Electricity
224.93
224.93
Heat
359.88
Heat
58.98
72.82
1.58
0.00
Electricity
&Heat
192.72
178.85
13.87
418.00
Electricity
418.00
247.60
42.98
1.58
Electricity
1.58
1.80
31.02
Electricity
Heat
1.80
31.02
Biofuel
Wind Turbine
For Vehicles
For Vehicles &
Water Pump
19.80
Heat
19.80
Biogas
from waste
For Vehicles
15.50
15.50
Wind pump
Water pumping
Heat
Mechanic
al
Wind
Ethanol
0.35
285.48
58.98
192.72
Micro Hydro Plants
0.00
Electricity
49.89
solar cell &
Cookers
Hydro Power
Plants
Resource
Surplus
or Deficit
0.00
Electricity
&Heat
Solar
Hydro
Electricity
Micro
Hydro
Transport
Land
preparation
20.47
irrigation
9.17
Agriculture
Process
heat
65.34
lighting
Heat
Motive
power
14.13
Lighting
14.13
Lighting
Heat
Space
Heating
14.13
1808.22
65.34
Amount
cooking
Briquettes
final supply
Biogas
Agriculture
Residues
Potential Energy
Resources
/Technology
Cooking stoves &
Lighting
Space
Heating
Demand Side
Commercial
Industrial
Residential
Cooking
Supply Side
in million GJ
0.00
0.00
8.42
2.01
16.38
4.09
1.40
4.68
1.16
0.13
0.42
1.27
0.18
0.22
1.75
0.35
0.35
102
90.42
8.19
16.76
0.00
14.26
9.86
0.00
15.50
0.00
0.00
Annex F4: Energy Demand & Supply Situation in different scenarios until 2050- MG Scenario
Agriculture
Residues
14.13 Heat
Land
preperatoin
irrigation
Agriculture Transport
Process
heat
lighting
Industrial
Lighting
Cooking
Space
Heating
Lighting
14.13
Space
Heating
14.13
Commercial
Resource
Surplus or
Deficit
0.00
1808.22
Briquettes
Industrial process heat
Gasification based CHP
0.00
165.77 Heat
165.77
36.96 Heat
36.96
803.73 Electricity
Plant
Heat
801.76 Electricity
Steam based CHP Plants
Fuel Wood
solar
cooking
Cooking stoves & Lighting
final Supply
Biogas
Energy
form
Resources/Technology
Amount
Residential
Potential Energy
in million GJ
Demand Side
Motive
power
Supply Side
Heat
63.07 101.42
1.28
0.00
36.96
0.00
204.69
204.69
245.63
245.63
200.44 119.20
320.70
77.61
3.64
131.48
0.00
2.85
186.37
108.88
0.00
Cooking/ECS
93.84 Heat
Gasification based CHP
15.03
Electricity
&Heat
347.96
Electricity
&Heat
347.96 322.91
418.00 Electricity
418.00 305.48
solar cell & Coocker
Hydro Electricity Hydro Power Plants
93.84
93.84
0.00
0.00
0.00
25.05
0.00
15.75
29.57 7.39
2.53
36.13
21.14
Micro Hydro
Micro Hydro Plants
1.58 Electricity
1.58
1.58
0.00
Wind
Wind Turbine
1.80 Electricity
1.80
0.61 0.47 0.32 0.40
0.00
Ethanol
For Vehicles
31.02 Heat
31.02
Biofuel
For Vehicles & Water Pump
19.80 Heat
19.80
Biogas from
waste
For Vehicles
42.98 Heat
15.50
Wind pump
Water pumping
0.63 Mechanical
3.17 14.79
0.63
0.63
103
31.02
0.00
1.85
0.00
15.50
0.00
0.00
Annex F5: Energy Demand & Supply Situation in different scenarios until 2050- HG Scenario
Biogas
Agriculture
Residues
14.13
Heat
14.13
Briquettes
Industrial
process heat
Gasification
based CHP
Plant
Fuel Wood
Cooking/ECS
Surplus
or Deficit
14.13
0.00
0.00
800.76
Heat
800.76
108.90
Heat
108.90
575.78
Electricity
143.95
Heat
172.73
322.78
108.88
108.88
Electricity
457.75
337.53
129.11
Heat
108.88
0.00
1025.1
1
0.32
0.00
108.90
0.00
1.88
142.07
172.73
80.70
Heat
5.16
80.70
0.00
129.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
108.88
Solar
Gasification
based CHP
solar cell &
Cooker
1025.11
Electricity
&Heat
Electricity
&Heat
Hydro
Electricity
Hydro Power
Plants
418.00
Electricity
418.00
Micro Hydro
Micro Hydro
Plants
1.58
Electricity
1.58
Wind
Wind Turbine
1.80
Electricity
1.80
Ethanol
For Vehicles
For Vehicles &
irrigation
31.02
Heat
31.02
23.76
19.80
Heat
19.80
19.80
For Vehicles
15.50
Heat
15.50
Wind pump
Resource
1808.22
Steam based
CHP Plants
Biofuel
Biogas from
waste
Transport
Land
preparation
irrigation
Agriculture
Process
heat
Motive
power
Industrial
Lighting
Space
Heating
Cooking
Commercial
Lighting
Space
Heating
cooking
final
Supply
Energy
form
Amount
Residential
Potential
Energy
Resources
/Technology
Cooking
stoves &
Lighting
in million GJ
Demand Side
lighting
Supply Side
Water
pumping
0.00
1.87
Mechanic
al
0.00
951.32
73.80
0.63 46.41
0.00
8.40
10.71
87.12
22
16.80
226.15
1.58
0.00
0.61
1.19
0.00
7.26
1.87
104
0.00
0.00
15.50
1.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
Annex F6: Energy resources supply and demand analysis- 2050- BAU Scenario
in million GJ
Supply
Sources
Demand
Electricity
Hydroelectricity
Biomass based CHP
(steam)
Biomass based CHP
(gasification)
Total
Heat
418.00
0.00
224.93
285.48
218.15
861.08
261.78
547.26
Chemical energy
Ethanol
Electricity
Surplus/ Deficit
Heat
327.58
0
327.58
0.00
Electricity
Heat
533.50
Chemical energy
Chemical energy
16.76
14.26
31.017
547.26
Annex F7: Energy resources supply and demand analysis- 2050-MG Scenario
in million GJ
Supply
Demand
Surplus/ Deficit
Sources
Electricity Heat
Electricity
Heat
Electricity
Heat
Hydroelectricity
418.00
0.00
597.30 134.33
Biomass based CHP
(steam)
200.44 320.70
Biomass based CHP
(gasification)
Total
204.69 245.63
823.13 566.33
597.30
134.33
225.83 432.00
Annex F8: Energy resources supply and demand analysis- 2050-HG Scenario
in million GJ
Supply
Sources
Hydroelectricity
Demand
Surplus/ Deficit
Heat in urban
He
Electricity Heat
Electricity areas
Electricity
at
418.00
0.00
2079.37
129.11
Biomass based CHP
(steam)
80.70 129.11
Biomass based CHP
(gasification)
143.95 172.73
Total
642.64 172.73
2079.37
105
129.11
-1436.73
0.0
0
Annex F9: Share of renewable fuels in total energy supply in different scenarios
in million GJ
Scenarios
2050 BAU
2050 MG
2050 HG
Sector/
Energy
sources
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
Total
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
Total
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agriculture
Transport
Total
Biomass
Hydro Biofuel
Wind
Solar
Others Total
14.13
0.13
192.72
805.11
306.38 291.74
3.95
10.44
0.00
1.67
0.00
16.06
20.47
20.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
40.95
0.00
1.40
9.94
0.35
0.00
11.70
0.00
4.68
42.12
0.00
0.00
46.80
330.80 328.74
66.19
2.15
192.72
920.60
1045.54 307.06
14.13
0.61
347.96
1715.30
14.54
15.75
0.00
1.19
0.00
31.48
36.96
36.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
73.93
0.00
2.53
17.95
0.63
0.00
21.12
0.00
36.13
48.36
0.00
0.00
84.49
1097.05 398.44
80.45
2.43
347.96
1926.32
1234.45
2.21
14.13
0.00 1025.11 1544.07 3819.97
5.48
65.53
0.00
1.80
0.00
72.81
108.90 108.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
217.80
0.00
16.80
43.56
1.87
0.00
62.23
0.00 226.15
22.76
0.00
0.00
248.91
1348.82 419.58
80.45
3.67 1025.11 1544.07 4421.70
106
TRITA-IM 2008:29
ISSN 1402-7615
Industrial Ecology,
Royal Institute of Technology
www.ima.kth.se
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