WIND FARM DECOMMISSIONING: A DETAILED APPROACH TO

WIND FARM DECOMMISSIONING: A DETAILED APPROACH TO

WIND FARM DECOMMISSIONING: A DETAILED APPROACH TO

ESTIMATE FUTURE COSTS IN SWEDEN

Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY WITH

FOCUS ON WIND POWER

Uppsala University

Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland

John McCarthy

June 5th 2015 iii

WIND FARM DECOMMISSIONING: A DETAILED APPROACH TO

ESTIMATE FUTURE COSTS IN SWEDEN

Dissertation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE WITH A MAJOR IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY WITH

FOCUS ON WIND POWER

Uppsala University

Department of Earth Sciences, Campus Gotland

Approved by:

Supervisor, Liselotte Aldén, Lecturer, Uppsala University

Supervisor, Anders Bernholdsson, Senior Project Engineer, Nordisk Vindkraft AB

Examiner, Heracles Polatidis, Senior Lecturer, Uppsala University

Date: June 5 th

2015 iv

ABSTRACT

Although targets for renewable energy exist in Sweden, developing wind energy has proven to be challenging for developers. This is due in part to the demands made by authorities for monetary amounts to be set aside to take care of wind turbine dismantling and site restoration costs at the end of their lifecycle. There has been a large degree of uncertainty surrounding the amounts being demanded and the level to which sites must be restored, partially due to a lack of guidelines. Coupled with ambiguity, there has been a tendency by authorities and developers to use figures from previous high court decisions and previous permit applications to project decommissioning costs for current applications.

This thesis evaluates seven different wind farm decommissioning scenarios using a model developed to estimate future costs, with the turbine model and the quantity of turbines being the parameters that vary. The model uses data from numerous sources, including real case decommissioning projects and figures from an existing model that had already been used to forecast costs in Sweden. One of the assumptions of the model developed is that scrap metals in wind turbines will have a residual value when decommissioning occurs; this was not allowed for in a recent decision made by a county administrative board following an environmental high court decision. An argument is made to justify that a minimum scrap value for wind turbines should be considered, based on the findings of the model. A further case is made to allow for the security bonds to be paid over an extended period of time, considering the initial value of wind farms.

The results of the model show that the turbine model has an impact on the decommissioning costs and the potential residual value that can be obtained. In addition, the quantity of the wind turbines has a considerable effect on the decommissioning costs. These results suggest that each wind development project should be treated on a case-by-case basis using a calculation-based approach when determining the cost for a security bond. Recommendations for future research include considering wind farm location in the model. v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to express my gratitude towards my supervisors Ms. Liselotte Aldén and

Mr. Anders Bernholdsson, for their guidance and support throughout the course of this research project. It would not have been possible without their encouragement and feedback.

A mention must be given to those who provided data for the purpose of this project.

In addition, I wish to thank my classmates and the department faculty and staff for making my time at Uppsala University Campus Gotland a truly unforgettable experience.

Last but not least, I wish to thank my family for their continued support throughout the duration of my studies. vi

EHC

EU

MW

NV

SEK

USD

WT

NOMENCLATURE

CAB Country Administrative Board (Länsstyrelse)

Environmental High Court (Miljööverdomstolen)

European Union

Mega Watt

Nordisk Vindkraft

Swedish Krona

United States Dollars

Wind turbine vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE

ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ vi

NOMENCLATURE ................................................................................................... vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................... viii

LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................... x

LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................... xi

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 12

1.1 PROBLEM FORMULATION .......................................................................... 13

1.2 NORDISK VINDKRAFT ................................................................................. 13

CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 14

2.1 SUMMARY OF PAPERS REVIEWED .......................................................... 22

2.2 DECOMMISSIONING REGULATIONS IN SWEDEN ................................. 24

2.3 SECURITY BONDS ........................................................................................ 25

2.4 METAL PRICES .............................................................................................. 33

2.4.1 History ........................................................................................................ 33

2.4.2 Future Projections ....................................................................................... 36

2.4.3 Summary of metal prices ............................................................................ 38

2.5 LEARNING CURVE ........................................................................................ 39

2.6 TENDER INDEX ............................................................................................. 42

2.7 NORDISK VINDKRAFT’S DECOMMISSIONING COSTS MODEL ........ 42

CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY AND DATA ........................................................ 44

3.1 MODEL ............................................................................................................ 45

3.1.1 General Assumptions .................................................................................. 46

3.1.2 Civil costs – assumptions ........................................................................... 47

3.1.3 Electrical costs - assumptions ..................................................................... 47

3.1.4 Turbine costs - assumptions ....................................................................... 48

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3.2 SCENARIOS .................................................................................................... 49

CHAPTER 4. APPLICATION OF THE METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS ....... 51

CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS ....................................................... 54

CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................. 58

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 60

APPENDIX A. COSTS AND FORMULAS USED IN THE MODEL ..................... 62

ix

LIST OF FIGURES PAGE

Figure 1. The identified activities and sub-activities as per the model ...................... 15

Figure 2. Categorised planning regulations for wind farms in Sweden ..................... 24

Figure 3. Average security bonds demanded by CABs throughout Sweden between 2009 and 2012 .............................................................................. 32

Figure 4. Aluminium prices in USD between 1990 and 2015 ................................... 34

Figure 5. Copper prices in USD between 1990 and 2015 .......................................... 35

Figure 6. Iron ore prices in USD between 1990 and 2015 ......................................... 36

Figure 7. Forecasted prices for aluminium in USD between 2015 and 2025 ............ 37

Figure 8. Forecasted prices for copper in USD between 2015 and 2025 ................... 37

Figure 9. Forecasted prices for iron ore in USD between 2015 and 2025 ................. 38

Figure 10. The learning curve shown in terms of marginal costs and volume .......... 39

Figure 11. The installed capacity of wind power in Sweden between 2002 and

2014 .......................................................................................................... 40

Figure 12. Forecasted decommissioning projects ...................................................... 41

Figure 13. A flowchart of the methodology ............................................................... 50

Figure 14. An illustration of the results for each of the seven scenarios tested ......... 52

x

LIST OF TABLES PAGE

Table 1. The parameters included in the model used by Pérez & Rickardsson ......... 15

Table 2. Decommissioning costs per wind turbine, per MW and per kWh ............... 18

Table 3. The mass of wind turbine components and material breakdown for a 2 MW Gamesa G8X model onshore wind turbine ................................... 19

Table 4. Payment structure for security bonds in Sweden between 2010 and 2012 .. 27

Table 5. Motives for permit appeals in relation to decommissioning between

2010 and 2012 ............................................................................................. 28

Table 6. A summary of the various scenarios tested in the model ............................. 49

Table 7. Estimated costs for decommissioning and estimated residual values for the selected scenarios as presented in Table 6 ....................................... 51

Table 8. Estimated costs for decommissioning and estimated residual values which account for the impact of scale on the output of the model ............. 51

Table 9. The impact of applying the tender index to the sourced costs ..................... 53

Table A1. Project inputs……………………………………………………………. 63

Table A2. Labour and equipment costs……………………………………………. 63

Table A3. Deposit fees……………………………………………………………... 63

Table A4. Residual Value………………………………………………………….. 64

Table A5. Cable weight calculation costs………………………………………….. 67 xi

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

Due to the environmental consequences resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, as well as their unpredictable supply and consistent depletion, the need to expand alternative sources of energy remains a major challenge for society. Renewable energy has enormous potential to combat these issues and make a greater contribution to energy demands. Its expansion can play a central role in achieving a low carbon economy. In 2009, the EU (European Union) released the 2009/28/EC directive to promote the use of renewable energy. It set out mandatory targets to be achieved by 2020, including a 20% share of energy consumption to be sourced for renewable energy by each EU member state (EC, 2012). Based on this directive, Sweden an EU member state, has aimed at surpassing this target, and increasing its share of renewable energy to 50% of national supply by 2020 (Sweden, 2015).

Wind energy, a renewable energy source, has been used for thousands of years for propulsion, for powering grain mills and for water irrigation (DP Energy, 2015). Despite its diminishing use in the past due to the availability of cheap fossil fuels, interest has been regained in its use over the last few decades, due to its environmental benefits, secure supply and its positive impact on the economy. On a global scale, it has been the fastest-growing source of renewable energy. Since 2000, in Sweden alone, production has increased from 0.5 to 11.5 terawatt hours annually (Sweden, 2015; Svensk Vindenergi, 2015). Due to the large number of wind farm developments in Sweden to date and, taking into account the targets that have been set for renewable energy, further windfarm developments can be expected in the future.

Modern wind turbines (WTs), the mechanical structures used to harness wind energy, which convert kinetic energy to electrical power, typically have an operational lifetime of 20 to 25 years (IWEA, 2015). Consequently, they no longer serve their purpose after this time period for economic and technical reasons. Some countries, such as Sweden, have introduced decommissioning regulations to ensure that WTs are dismantled and the surrounding land is restored once wind farms reach the end of their life service.

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1.1 PROBLEM FORMULATION

Due to the nature of WTs having a limited technical and economic lifespan, it is inevitable that they will one day need to be taken down. As a result, a demand for a security bond to cover decommissioning costs for WTs by County Administrative Boards (CABs) has emerged as a requirement in order to acquire planning acceptance. This amount has been seen to increase substantially over time. Overall, there is quite a lot of uncertainty surrounding the amount that should be set down, with some developers referring to previous Environmental

High Court (EHC) decisions and others attempting a calculation-based approach to determine the amount it will cost. If using a calculation-based approach, there are many factors likely to change over the forthcoming twenty years, making it difficult to estimate future costs.

Despite the value of WTs for resale, recycling or scrap value, CABs have not recognised the potential revenue from these sources when demanding an amount to be set down as a means of insurance. Over the past ten years, the amount accepted on a per-WT basis has been seen to increase by a number of factors. In addition, a lack of guidelines for decommissioning and restoration levels has caused ambiguity for both those intending to develop wind farms and the responsible authorities. This thesis goes about examining the benefits of using a model to estimate future decommissioning costs. Consideration is also given to how the model can be improved in order to make more accurate estimations. One way of reaching a more accurate outcome is by carrying out research in collaboration with a company, in this case NV, which has extensive experience in the industry and the capacity to provide relevant data.

1.2 NORDISK VINDKRAFT

This thesis was carried out with the assistance of Nordisk Vindkraft (NV). NV was previously known as Renewable Energy Systems (RES) Skandinavien AB, and is a subsidiary of RES, based in Sweden. The RES Group Ltd. was started in 1982 by the Sir

Robert McAlpine Company and has over 40 years of experience in construction and building engineering. RES has a global portfolio with 9 Giga Watts of onshore wind energy, as well as an Asset Management portfolio exceeding 1 Giga Watt. NV was started in 2002 and today, it has a portfolio of around 380 MW of onshore wind, which includes Sidensjö wind farm project currently under completion (Bernholdsson, 2015).

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CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

To date, there have been a number of publications dealing with wind farm decommissioning costs, both in Sweden and abroad. The literature review was carried out by initially reviewing publications that dealt with wind farm decommissioning costs as a whole. Subsequent chapters examine decommissioning regulations in Sweden, provide an analysis of the process for security bonds, evaluate metal prices, investigate the learning curve theory and explore the tender index. The literature review began by reviewing the master’s thesis “What goes up

must come down - Modelling economic consequences for wind turbine decommissioning”, which was published in 2008 (Pérez & Rickardsson, 2008).

This document is the result of some of the earliest research into decommissioning costs for wind farms in Sweden. It provides useful data from a study which focused on developing a model to estimate the economic consequences associated with the decommissioning process.

Much interest was gathered regarding the outcome of the publication, both on behalf of government authorities as well as those with private interests, due to the degree of uncertainty surrounding decommissioning WTs.

The purpose of developing a model was to assist developers to somehow assess the future costs that they would have to incur as part of decommissioning. The aim was not to get exact prices but instead to understand the factors affecting economic consequences. The various costs associated with decommissioning, which includes three phases - dismantling, scrapping and restoration of the site - were incorporated in the model. Data were collected from County

Administrative Boards (CABs) within Sweden, as well as from environmental courts with the objective of becoming familiar with the decommissioning requirements. Questionnaires were also sent to industry members to get their views. In addition, further data was obtained from published reports, which provided various figures on expected decommissioning costs. Due to the degree of assumptions and uncertainties involved, it was decided to perform a sensitivity analysis to establish the validity of the model.

Decommissioning was described in detail and the costs associated with the various stages are presented in the study. An Activity Based Costing method was applied; this method involved applying costs to activities in a direct manner, as well as acquiring a list of activities,

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determining the cost of each activity and finally selecting cost drivers that link activity costs to cost objects.

Figure 1. The identified activities and sub-activities as per the model

Source: Pérez & Rickardsson, 2008

This thesis is based on the theory that it will be unlikely that there will be a market for second-hand WTs when they are decommissioned. However, Pérez & Rickardsson model does allow a residual scrap value for the tower, nacelle, generator, rotor and the cables

(internal and external). The figures were calculated based on the scenario of decommissioning 10 land-based Vestas V82 1.65 MW WTs and 16 other types of WTs were subsequently evaluated for comparison. The model is restricted to a total of thirteen parameters, as illustrated in the Table 1.

Table 1. The parameters included in the model used by Pérez & Rickardsson

Source: Pérez & Rickardsson, 2008

One assumption of the model is that concrete can be disposed of without any costs incurred.

For the 1.65 MW Vestas V82 WT, the outcome of the model showed a cost of 110 000 SEK per WT. The study also examined ‘learning effects’; the impact of cumulative experience in carrying out decommissioning projects, and how it could potentially contribute towards the

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costs of decommissioning. In addition, fluctuations in metal prices in the past were analysed in order to model how they might affect the residual value of the WTs once they are no longer operational. Different scenarios were analysed with and without factors such as inflation, fluctuations in metal prices, the learning effect, etc. The best case scenario was based on including learning effects and excluding fluctuations. The lack of experience in the area, difficulty in predicting the future and the lack of conformity in the regulations were the biggest areas of concern according to those consulted in the interviews conducted. However, there was an assumption shared by many that the value of scrap metal would cover all of the decommissioning costs. The great deal of uncertainty surrounding metal prices in particular, was considered as the greatest source of ambiguity in terms of estimating the economic consequences of decommissioning.

Following the thesis publication by Pérez & Rickardsson (2008), the report “Vindkraftverk–

kartläggning av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering, återställande av plats och

återvinning, [“wind power - mapping activities and costs for dismantling, restoration and recovery of sites”] built upon the findings of the thesis (Ardefors et al., 2009). The report was produced as a result of collaboration between Consortis Producentansvar AB and Svensk

Vindenergi AB.

This publication emphasises the need to assess each wind farm on a case-by-case basis in order to provide an accurate figure for that particular development. There were a number of recommendations made for inclusion as part of the decommissioning process in the standard procedure in the permits for wind farms. These include:

Dismantling and removing the blades, rotor and tower

Uptake and removal of internal cables

Excavation of foundations and external cables

Recycling to be carried out to the maximum extent possible according with landfill being the last resort scenario

It was recommended that a restoration plan include the disposal process for each of the components. Proposed recommendations include a breakdown of both costs and revenues for sub-activities decomposed to following levels as a minimum:

Cost of dismantling the rotor, turbine and tower

Cost of removal of the above

Recycling cost

Cost of removal, removal and recycling of internal cables

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Cost of removal, removal and recycling of foundations and external cables

Revenue from the sale of scrap metal

Other extraordinary costs, such as permits, project management, insurance, etc.

According to the study by Ardefors et al. (2009), it is expected that the calculation be based on a reasonable assumption about the number of WTs dismantled, and at the same time with respect to exclusion of common overall costs, such as establishment costs. It is stressed that a careful and sustainable assessment of scrap metal prices be performed to allow for their value to be included.

The report recommends that inflation be accounted for in the calculations by allowing 2% annually over a recommended lifespan of 20 years. Further recommendations refer to introducing a requirement that the site be restored within 24 months after the last WT is disassembled. Costs for dismantling are also addressed, with a 1% per year reduction allowed for, due to the future learning effect.

The financial aspect of the decommissioning process was also touched upon. Measures which could be introduced in order to achieve an improved approach were assessed. These include whether provisions would be tax deductible, how dismantling would be included in accounts, if competitive neutrality should be accounted for, how a potential surplus capital would be allocated in the event that decommissioning would not cost as much as expected, what would happen in the event of a change in ownership and how the follow-up process after restoration would be completed.

In the paper “Preparing for end of service life of wind turbines” published in 2013, the fate of decommissioned WTs in the USA was examined (Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland, 2013). Four key issues regarding the end of service life of the WTs are presented. These are the challenges of managing of decommissioned WTs given growth rate of the industry; the options available such as remanufacturing and recycling; the critical activities in the reverse supply chain such as recovery methods, logistics of transportation, quality of returns, and quality of reprocessed WTs; and the economic and business issues associated with end of service life WTs.

It is outlined that, in the absence of reuse or remanufacturing, WTs can be sold for their scrap/material value. In order to assess the expected salvage value, which is usually included in decommissioning plans, three wind farm projects were examined (See Table 2 below).

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Table 2. Decommissioning costs per wind turbine, per MW and per kWh

Source: Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland, 2013

In all cases in Table 2, the salvage value per WT was lower than the decommissioning cost.

The impact of the variability scrap quality and value are emphasised in the study. Low selling prices that do not cover decommissioning costs or low quality components were seen to make reprocessing difficult. Before making any decision about whether each WT component should be disposed, recycled, remanufactured, or reused, the need to identify the individual contributions of the components to the total embodied energy and the overall WT cost, as well as the current disposal or recovery techniques available was stressed.

Current disposal techniques for WT components were identified as being focused on recycling for second purpose (open recycling). Closed recycling (recycling back into WTs), on the other hand, involves reutilisation, and reprocessing of critical materials such as steel, copper, rare earth magnets, and fiberglass. Carrying out closed recycling was identified as having the capacity to reduce the total global resource consumption and help mitigate unexpected market changes such as supply shortages. With an increasing market cost of these critical materials, a remanufacturing approach is seen as a means of contributing towards the long-term sustainability of the WT manufacturing industry.

In Table 3, the various materials in a 2 MW WT are identified, as well as the mass of the various components.

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Table 3. The mass of wind turbine components and material breakdown for a 2 MW

Gamesa G8X model onshore wind turbine

Source: Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland, 2013

With reference to recycling, the scrap value associated with materials such as steel, aluminium, and concrete were said to have increased due to technologies for reprocessing.

Additionally, there has been an increase on the global market for materials due to demand. It is claimed that the material recovered from a WT can reach as much as 80% of the total weight. Recycling of WTs is seen as a means to close material cycles, reduce imports, and decrease consumption of virgin materials while creating new business opportunities. The fact that potential markets for materials such as composites and rare earth minerals have not been explored previously is stated.

The study emphasised the need to establish a reverse logistics system for WTs whereby recovery channel structure is defined and secondary markets for used WTs be explored. This would consist of three phases; deconstruction in the blades, nacelle, and tower in that order; on-site separation into modules; and transportation in module/component form to the recovery or disposal facility. The destination of the components would be dependent on a number of factors including their condition and the market prices for scrap metal for example.

From the reverse logistics perspective, WTs are seen to have many advantages in comparison to other products. It was determined that attention should be given to the logistics of transportation of the WTs to the recovery facility as well as the quality of components

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returned. Transportation costs are claimed as having a major bearing on the process as a whole. In addition, the quality of returns is seen as having an impact on the associated reprocessing costs. Overall, the economic benefits associated with remanufacturing or recycling initiatives are maintained to be of benefit not only for project developers and independent recovery operators, but also current undeveloped markets that are emerging.

In 2014, the report “Nedmontering av vindkraftverk och efterbehandling av platsen”, [“wind farm decommissioning and site restoration”], was published (Aldén et al., 2014). The focus of this publication was analysing and comparing the wind power decommissioning laws, regulations, permits, history, activity costs and the disposal and restoration options in Sweden and in other parts of the world.

The report focused on case studies for decommissioning wind farms in Denmark, the USA and Sweden. Throughout the report, the lack of experience in decommissioning to date was emphasised. The key findings identified the installed capacity, the level of restoration and the location as having the greatest impact on decommissioning costs.

Regarding the after use of the WTs, refurbishing, reselling and recycling were all examined.

Refurbishing was said to be very much reliant on costs, reliability of the WT and availability of necessary components. Reselling ultimately depends on the demand of the market. Even with the limited experience of decommissioning projects to date, smaller WTs have proven easier to sell again. Recycling of WT parts was identified as being dependent on the size of the WT, the type of scrap available and current metal prices. It was also mentioned that, at the current point in time, the options for recycling WT blades are limited. Most blades are predominantly made of fibreglass and present many challenges for recycling. While it may be possible in theory, this does not mean that it is cost effective to do so. As a result landfill was seen as the most feasible option within Sweden.

For decommissioning projects in Sweden, 300 000 SEK per WT was the typical amount set aside as security bond demanded between 2010 and 2012, when the study was carried out.

Data from two real-case decommissioning projects carried out in Sweden were used for comparison with the amounts being demanded for security bonds. In addition, estimated data for decommissioning projects were sourced from two sources. The first was from a previous permit application, while the second was from the decommissioning of smaller turbines in the

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same place, taking into account construction costs incurred for a larger turbine. The estimates were for 40 2 MW WTs and 5 2 MW WTs respectively.

Geographic location was identified as having a major bearing on the costs due to the distance to the location of disposal or resale and the distance required to transport the necessary crane.

The cost was claimed to be impacted by the WT size, as a larger one would require a larger crane.

With regard to the prices for scrap metal, dimensions, separation costs and transportation costs were determined as having a major bearing on the amount than can be acquired.

Three metal types were evaluated in terms of their scrap value. Copper prices were said to be approaching a decline in value due to increased access to resources. Steel (iron ore and nickel) and aluminium, on the other hand, were deemed to be facing a gradual elevation in value. As well as the metals present in the WT components, the study also discussed how rebar could be removed from concrete, and in turn, also provide a scrap value.

Previous permits which were approved between 2009 and 2012 were also examined, and a mere 28% of cases demanded that the developer provide the full security bond up front.

Decisions made by CABs were said to be based on previous court decisions, leaving the conditions for the security bond open to ambiguity.

Referring to the site remediation process in Sweden, the lack of guidelines or conformed practice was outlined as a barrier to predicting decommissioning costs for wind farms. The discretion of CABs regarding the degree to which it is necessary to restore a site after the lifetime of the wind farm was said to have led to confusion in the process. This is in particular reference to concrete and cable removal requirements. The necessary remediation level is not outlined when the security bond is necessary, leading to ambiguity for the developer. A suggestion of setting a minimum level, like in France, was mentioned.

The thesis “Wind Farm Decommissioning: A perspective on regulations and cost assessment

in Italy and Sweden”, provides an in-depth analysis of the regulations and costs associated with decommissioning in Sweden, as well as a comparison with Italy (Giovannini, 2014).

As part of the research undertaken, it was noted that, in the past there was a tendency not to demand a security bond on behalf of the developers in Sweden. The current methods being used by developers were declared as insufficient by CABs, due to leaving many areas

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unexplored regarding the potential costs that might be involved in decommissioning. Rather than having a systematic approach to acquire a figure for the security bond, estimates included in permits were identified as having a similar output to the most recently accepted applications.

However, following the publication of the model by Pérez & Rickardsson (2008), it was noted that this led to some developers moving towards an approach based on doing calculations, instead of relying on previous decisions by the EHC. It was identified that most decommissioning of WTs in Sweden has been performed on those less than 1 MW. With further advances in technology and logistics, it is outlined that most of the more recent installations are significantly larger. It is outlined that, the larger the WTs are, the greater the costs incurred. This is claimed to be a result of the need for larger cranes, which are required for larger WTs.

The estimated costs for decommissioning 2 MW WT in Italy were shown to be at least twice as high as those in Sweden for the same WT. With the Italian authorities unwilling to allow for scrap metal prices to be counted as part of the security bond and considered demanding with regard to other legislative components, the amount demanded to cover decommissioning costs was shown to remain a major barrier to developing wind farms in Italy.

2.1 SUMMARY OF PAPERS REVIEWED

A total of five publications were analysed for the initial part of the literature review. The results of the findings are quite broad, but provide a basis to commence with further research.

The findings of the first publication, by Pérez & Rickardsson (2008), identified the lack of research in the area of decommissioning costs to date. The previous lack of research and the uncertainty surrounding costs provide a strong rationale for the research conducted in this thesis. The inclusion of first hand data and a sensitivity analysis added to the validity of this thesis. By using a method of breaking down the costs of activities and sub-activities in a transparent way has meant that data in the model could be used by others.

The model developed by Pérez & Rickardsson (2008) is based on the concept that there will be a scrap value for the metal components of the turbines at the end of their life cycle.

However, the nature of metal prices and their fluctuating values are identified as being the largest uncertainty in the model. In the paper written by Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland (2013)

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scrap value for aluminium and steel was claimed to have increased in recent years due to the availability of newer reprocessing technologies. Further research by Ortegon, Nies &

Sutherland (2013) showed that an increase in demand is expected for the materials commonly used in WTs. Aldén et al. (2014) claimed that two of the three metals most commonly used in turbines, steel and aluminium, were facing an increase in value in the years ahead. The report by Ardefors et al. (2009) stressed the importance of doing a good quality assessment of metal prices in order to include scrap metal values in calculations. In addition, this paper suggested allowing for a 1% reduction in costs due to the learning effect.

As mentioned by Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland (2013), transportation costs were considered to have a major impact on overall costs. The publication by Aldén et al. (2014) identified the location of wind farms as one of the factors that has the greatest impact on overall costs.

Smaller turbines were shown to be easier to resell, partially due to transportation costs.

Distance was considered as having a major bearing on costs due to the location of disposal or resale facilities, the need for a crane, and its associated travel costs.

According to Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland (2013), the quality of the materials was identified as having a considerable impact on the economic feasibility of recovery. This is further backed up by Aldén et al. (2014), who claim that potential to recycle WTs was seen to be heavily influenced by the type of metal, the size of the structure and the current metal prices.

Giovannini (2014) pointed out that most of the more recent installations are significantly larger than those previously decommissioned. As a result, they are likely to require larger cranes for decommissioning purposes, thus contributing to greater costs.

Ardefors et al. (2009) emphasised the need to treat decommissioning on a case-by-case basis.

However, as pointed out by Aldén et al. (2014), the lack of guidelines surrounding site restoration has been a problem for developers, particularly with regard to the removal of cables and the removal of foundations. This was identified as a major source of ambiguity in terms of predicting future decommissioning costs. The lack of clarity has contributed in that, many developers rely on previous court decisions for the necessary decommissioning bond, rather than using a calculation based approach.

Giovannini (2014) claimed that the legislation demanding a security bond that exists in Italy is proving to be a major barrier for those with intentions to develop wind farms in that jurisdiction. The cost of the bond is very high in comparison to that in Sweden. Due to the

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demands, developments have been limited because of the difficulties in sourcing capital to be set aside for the security bond

Overall, the impact of instability in metal markets, technological advances, and the location of a project were identified as being some of the most important factors that should be considered in estimating decommissioning costs. The potential to treat future developments on a case-by-case basis and the introduction of guidelines to Sweden are mentioned as potential means to contribute towards achieving an improved approach. The impact of failing to apply appropriate decommissioning legislation towards a lack of wind energy development is also outlined.

2.2 DECOMMISSIONING REGULATIONS IN SWEDEN

In Sweden, the applicable regulations for wind farms are based on the number of WTs proposed and the total height of the WTs. Permits, notifications or a combination of both may be required.

Figure 2. Categorised planning regulations for wind farms in Sweden

Source: Hagberg, 2011, cited in Giovannini, 2014

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As illustrated in Figure 2, if the proposed wind farm specification fulfils the criteria of the orange area, developers are required to apply for the permit under the Planning and Building

Act. Additionally, acquiring an environmental notification pursuant of the Environmental

Code is necessary. Both are reviewed by the local municipality. As developers who intend to install wind farms within these criteria can also apply for a permit under the Environmental

Act, they may do so, even though they are not required to. A key advantage of the permit under the Environmental Act is that it allows for conditions to be set for whole duration of the project, as opposed to the Planning and Building permit, whereby the conditions may change over the lifetime of the wind farm.

If the specifications of the wind farm are in line with the conditions of the red area, as the majority of proposed utility-scale wind farms nowadays are, a permit under the

Environmental Act is mandatory. For these cases, permission for a wind farm is reviewed by the CABs through environmental assessment delegations. As well as the input of the CAB, municipalities must give their consent as part of this process (Giovannini, 2014).

2.3 SECURITY BONDS

In Sweden, the wind farm operator holds responsibility for the removal of the WTs and the restoration of the surrounding land once the lifetime of the project has concluded. For wind farms that require a permit according to the Environmental Act, security bonds are requested to cover costs for dismantling and remediation measures. This is a monetary amount set aside for insurance purposes. The need for a security bond has emerged as a consequence of concerns that the developer might not be able meet its obligations. The obligation of taking care of the site after the operational life of the wind farm lies with the operator at the time when it is decided that there is no further use for the wind farm. If the operator cannot fulfil its responsibilities, the cost is likely to be covered by the landowner. In the event that neither party can provide the necessary finance, society is likely to be faced with the burden of decommissioning (Aldén et al., 2014).

The security bond provides a means of ensuring that decommissioning requirements will be met, acquitting the landowner and society of potential risks.

As part of the application process for a permit, the developer is required to make a proposal for the amount of capital required for decommissioning WTs and the restoration of land. The

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permit, when issued, sets the amount of money to be included in the security bond for future decommissioning operations as well as other conditions, such as when the money should be available for the security bond. As part of the conditions, the monetary value must be adjusted according to the consumer price index in all cases. Normally, the index date is taken for the year that the permit is granted (Aldén et al., 2014).

Once the permit application is submitted, it is then up to the CAB to make a judgement and decide whether the amount is reasonable or not. Further information may be sought from the developer, provided that it is considered relevant to the assessment. There may be a number of options to pay security bond; it could be gradually built up according to a plan, or alternatively demanded on an up-front basis. This is also left up to the CAB to decide.

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Table 4. Payment structure for security bonds in Sweden between 2010 and 2012

Source: Aldén et al., 2014

Payment structure according to environmental permits. 0 is a sum to be paid before the permit is actualised, 5 is a sum to be paid after 5 years, and so on.

Payment structure

0

Number of permits

33

0, 5

0, 5, 10

0, 10, 15

0, 5, 10, 15

0, 10, 15, 20

0, 5, 10, 15, 20

0, 15, 25

First for 5 wind turbines, then at construction

0, and then 300 000 SEK every year until year 10

0, and then up to 300 000 SEK per wind turbine consisting of at least

12 500 SEK per year

0, and then to x amount of hundred thousand SEK during 20 years

0, and then with at least 1/20-part of the remaining amount per year

0, and then from year 11

8

9

1

1

26

1

1

3

1

1

13

11

10

Total number of permits 119

Table 4 shows the range of decisions which have been deemed acceptable by CABs for the payment structure for wind farm security bonds. Where the figure ‘0’ stands alone; this shows where the entire security bond had to be paid in full up-front. When ‘0’ is followed by other figures such as ‘5’, ’10’ and ‘20’, this is where payments would be made to the CAB 5,

10, and 20 years after the commissioning of the project, following an initial amount being set down, so basically, the full amount did not need to be paid at first. There were also a range of other decisions that had other specifications, for example, for one payment structure, ‘0, and

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then from year 11’, there was some money demanded before the project started and the remaining capital was paid from year 11 onwards.

As illustrated in Table 4, the most popular decision made by CABs between 2010 and 2012 was to demand the full amount up front before the project goes ahead. For all other options, the security is built up over time. The option of providing instalments on a 0, 10, 15 and 20 year basis was also widely accepted, having been the selected outcome in 26 of the 119 cases.

There were a total of fourteen different options documented, which outlines the lack of conformity applied by CABs in Sweden.

After the amount and the payment structure is decided by the CAB, there is a window whereby appeals can be made based on the conditions of the security bond. During this time period, the decision can be appealed by stakeholders such as Non-Governmental

Organisations, municipalities, authorities and companies in the area surrounding the proposed development.

Table 5. Motives for permit appeals in relation to decommissioning between 2010 and

2012

Source: Aldén et al., 2014

Blekinge

Halland

Jämtland

Norrbotten

Västernorrland

Västra Götaland

Calculation of consumer price index

Payment structure of security bond

Security bond

Lower

Amount

1

Security bond

Higher amount

3

6

4

Permission time

3

Restoration level

1

2 2 2

1 1

As illustrated in Table 5, there were a range of reasons why appeals were made. However, the payment structure of the security bond was the most common motive for an appeal to be made, followed by concerns that the amount for the security bond was too low and needed to be increased.

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From the perspective of society and other affected stakeholders, the reason to request an increase would be to ensure that sufficient funds for the decommissioning and restoration will be available at the end of the lifecycle of a windfarm if the proposed amount would seem too low. However, the nature of the appeals procedure has meant that some cases have ended up in the EHC. The process of determining an acceptable security bond by the CAB has been shown to be heavily influenced by previous decisions made by the EHC, rather than exclusively referring to proposed wind farms on a case-by-case basis. As a result of some of the cases that were referred to in the EHC, a trend of increasing demands for security bonds throughout Sweden subsequently followed the decisions outlined below. Besides the CABs, there has also been a tendency by many companies to refer to previous decisions rather than presenting calculations.

Some of the key cases that have had an apparent impact on the amount demanded include;

Taka Aapua wind farm (Taka Aapua, 2008); Kårehamnsporten offshore wind farm

(Kårehamnsporten, 2009) and Treriksröset wind farm (Treriksröset, 2014).

In late 2008, Vindkompaniet received permission to erect 14 WTs, each with a maximum of

3.6 MW for a total of 51 MW at Taka (Karnataka) Aapua. The permit was appealed and went to the EHC. The appeal concerned the security amount, form and time of deposition.

"The company did not give any calculation or estimation of the costs of

dismantling the wind turbines but did give what the scrap value was and what is additionally required as security. Based on these data the EHC assessed the costs to be estimated at 300 000 SEK per turbine. In addition, EHC quoted that the purpose of a security bond is to protect society from the risk of having to bear the cost of the restoration in a situation where the operator is unable to fulfil his duties. On that basis, the EHC decided that the security bond shall cover the full cost of dismantling and that the scrap value should not be considered. The security bond was determined to be 300 000 SEK per turbine.

The operation to build the wind farm could not be started before the security was established and approved by the Environment Court, as the licensing

authority" (Taka Aapua, 2008, cited in Aldén & Barney, 2015).

The decision for Taka Aapua was particularly important as it outlined the scrap value should not be considered.

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Kårehamnsporten is located in Kalmarsund, and is under the jurisdiction of another CAB.

Construction commenced in 2013 for the first 16 WTs of 3 MW each after a court decision by the EHC. In the court decision for Kårehamnsporten, which came late in 2009, the security amount was set at 25 million SEK for 21 WTs, approximately 1.19 SEK million per WT. The appeal concerned the security amount, form and time of deposition.

"The EHC did not change the decision of the Environmental Court for

financial security. The security would amount to 25 million SEK for 21 wind turbines. The security bond shall be built up over 20 years. The security bond shall be indexed annually according to the consumer price index. An initial provision of 3 million SEK will be put to the county administration board

before the wind farm goes into operation" (Kårehamnsporten, 2009, cited in

Aldén & Barney, 2015).

Due to nature of the decision making process in Sweden, whereby previous decisions are oftenreferred to for other cases, the permits for Taka Aapua and Kårehamnsporten have created prejudices.

As well as the changes in the amounts being demanded, the means of paying the security bond demanded by the CABs has changed over time. There have been two court decisions from Vänersborg (Vänersborg, Environmental court M 1640-10, 2010 and Vänersborg,

Environmental Court M 2227-09, 2010, cited in Aldén & Barney, 2015) that have had a lasting impact. In these decisions it was stated that the security bond should be set down gradually and a sum of 300 000 SEK per WT should be built up over a period of 20 years. A further development came in August 2014 when the court decision for the Treriksröset wind farm stated that the security bond was not to be built up over time, but instead, provided up front (Treriksröset, EHC no M 9473-14, 2014, cited in Aldén & Barney, 2015). In this case, the conditions which were decided upon by the Environmental Trial Commission also stood in the EHC, stating that:

"The company should provide security for restoration measurers of the site to

the value of 500 000 SEK per wind turbine erected. The security bond shall be placed in full and approved by the Environmental Trial Commission before the

permit can to be utilised." (Treriksröset, 2014, cited in Aldén & Barney, 2015).

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In addition to the payment structure of the bond, there were also other notable considerations in this case. Initially, the company stated that the net cost of dismantling the wind farm would be approximately 350 000 SEK per WT at 2011 price levels, taking into account the proceeds from the sale of scrap. However, the CAB did not allow for the scrap value to be accounted for. It is understood that the decision for Case M 2210-08 (Taka-Aapua), which established that the safety bond should cover the entire restoration cost without considering the scrap value, was an influencing factor. The total cost without taking into account the scrap value estimated by the company was 539 000 SEK per turbine. The CAB insisted that the safety bond for Treriksröset should be 500 000 SEK, as the calculation was not exact. It was also stated that the entire security bond would have to be placed before the permit is deemed valid

(Vindlov, 2015). This measure was introduced as a means of insurance in the event that the wind farm would need to be decommissioned in its first few years and the owner would go bankrupt. At the time of writing, May 2015, the EHC decision for Treriksröset outlines the most up to date demands.

Having been heavily influenced by these decisions made by the EHC, the average amount demanded by the CAB, on a per WT basis, has increased considerably over the last ten years.

Many developers and authorities would agree that the bond was insufficient in its previous state. Apart from the increasing demands, the extent of uncertainty surrounding security bonds has proven to be an issue for all parties involved.

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Figure 3. Average security bonds demanded by CABs throughout Sweden between 2009 and 2012

Source: Aldén & Barney, 2015

As illustrated in Figure 3, the average amounts for the security bond ranged between approximately 100 000 and 1 300 000 SEK, over the period of four years. In Norrbotten

County, part one of the Markbygden wind farm, accounting for more than 300 turbines, had a security bond of 1 300 000 SEK. This is an identical amount to the security bond for the first wind farm in the Dragaliden area. In Blekinge County, the Ysane wind farm had a security bond of 700 000 SEK, which was based on the company’s reference to the report published by Consortis Producentansvar and Svensk Vindenergi (Aldén & Barney, 2015).

It may be difficult for developers to source capital for the security bond, but a solution may be in the payment methods used by developers to pay the security bond to the CAB. Under the current conditions of the permit for the Environmental Code, the security bond demanded does not allow for any potential revenue from recycling or scrap of wind farm components to be taken into consideration, and believed to be cause for considerable dissatisfaction to developers. The key is finding a medium whereby stakeholders and landowners are satisfied with the amount for the security bond. Moreover, it is crucial that the amount is enough to reassure authorities that decommissioning costs will be taken care of. While the security bond may have been low in the past, it is continuing to increase and beginning to concern

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developers more and more. It is worth noting that Swedish national law states that, the security bond does not need to be costly and shall not exceed the necessary amount

(Miljöbalken, 2013, cited in Aldén et al., 2014). The potential to include scrap metal prices can contribute towards modelling a more accurate estimation of decommissioning costs, and in turn, reduce the burden on developers to provide capital.

2.4 METAL PRICES

2.4.1 History

Metals are commodities which are traded on the global market. It is important to look at the history and patterns of metal prices in order to project their future prices. Production methods and global trade have changed a lot since they were first documented in the early 20 th century. As a result, it was decided to analyse pricing for copper, aluminium and iron ore, the most common metals found in WTs. This was performed for the 25 year period between 1990 and 2015. Data were acquired for metal prices from the World Bank webpage in United

States Dollars (USD) per metric tonne. Prices were given in nominal and real terms, with the base year selected for real values being for 2010.

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Aluminium

Figure 4. Aluminium prices in USD between 1990 and 2015

Source: World Bank, 2015

Figure 4 shows aluminium prices over the period between the beginning of 1990 and the second quarter of 2015. The real aluminium prices in 2010’s value were shown to range between 1 320 and 2 860 USD per metric tonne since 1990. The lowest and highest prices were in the years 1993 and 2008 respectively. Since the economic crisis impacted global trade in late 2008, the lowest nominal aluminium price observed was 1 330 USD per metric tonne. The median price for this period in real value terms of 2010 was 1 860 USD per metric tonne. Its current nominal value is 1 820 USD and its most recent real value in terms of

2010’s value was 1 765 USD.

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Copper

Figure 5. Copper prices in USD between 1990 and 2015

Source: World Bank, 2015

As illustrated in Figure 5, between the beginning of 1990 and the second quarter of 2015 cooper prices in terms of the real value of 2010 have been fluctuating between 1 950 and 8

105 USD per metric tonne, with 3 195 being the median value. Prices have been coming down in final months of 2014 and early months of 2015 following a few years of elevated prices, particularly during 2011. Its current nominal value is 5 730 USD and its most recent real value in terms of 2010’s value was 6 480 USD.

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Iron Ore

Figure 6. Iron ore prices in USD between 1990 and 2015

Source: World Bank, 2015

As presented in Figure 6, iron ore prices were shown to vary quite a lot over the past 25 years, with 30 and 155 USD per metric tonne being the lowest and highest real values respectively, in terms of the money value of 2010. The median real value was calculated to be

40 USD. Prices are currently plummeting following the highs of the early 2010s. Its current nominal value is 65 USD and its most recent real value in terms of 2010’s value was 90 USD.

2.4.2 Future Projections

The World Bank provides commodity forecast prices for aluminium, copper and iron ore for each quarter for following ten years. Data for the years between 2015 and 2025 were acquired.

Aluminium

According to the future projections made by the World Bank, the real value of aluminium is set to decrease over the coming years.

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Figure 7. Forecasted prices for aluminium in USD between 2015 and 2025

Source: World Bank, 2015

According to Figure 7, the real value of aluminium in 2010 prices is set to decrease by approximately 100 USD per metric tonne over the next ten years.

Copper

Similar to aluminium, the price of copper is expected to decrease somewhat over the coming ten years in the real money value terms of 2010.

Figure 8. Forecasted prices for copper in USD between 2015 and 2025

Source: World Bank, 2015

As illustrated in Figure 8, the price of copper is forecasted to reduce in value by approximately 700 USD per metric tonne over the course of the next ten years.

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Iron ore

Over the next ten years a trend of increasing iron ore prices is forecasted.

Figure 9. Forecasted prices for iron ore in USD between 2015 and 2025

Source: World Bank, 2015

The forecast, as shown in Figure 9, predicts an increase of 20 USD per metric tonne over the course of the next ten years.

2.4.3 Summary of metal prices

Generally, there is a large degree of variation for each of the metal prices analysed.

Regarding the history of aluminium prices, the current price is considerably close to the median, despite the fluctuations over the past 25 years. According to the predictions provided by the World Bank for the next 10 years, the price is set to decrease, but not by a great deal.

For copper, the price over the past 25 years can be seen to fluctuate quite a lot. Despite the more recent drop in prices, the World Bank does not predict that prices will return to the lows of the early 2000s again over the next 25 years.

Iron ore prices are much lower than both aluminium and copper on a per metric tonne basis.

Prices are currently dropping following some highs over the past 10 years. Despite this, prices are expected to increase again over the coming 10 years according to the forecast by the World Bank.

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2.5 LEARNING CURVE

The learning curve, also known as the experience curve, describes how unit costs decline with cumulative production (Boston Consulting Group, 1972; Bodde, 1976; Abell &

Hammond, 1979, cited in Neij, 1997). It has been used in many studies like this, which aim to estimate future costs. A specific characteristic of the experience curve is that cost declines by a constant percentage with each doubling of the total number of units produced.

Figure 10. The learning curve shown in terms of marginal costs and volume

Source: Biz Development, 2008

The relationship of the learning curve is summarised in Figure 10 above. As illustrated, once the volume begins to increase, so does the cost per unit. For many activities, an 80% progress rate for the learning curve is common, that is; if production quantities double, the average cost per unit decreases by 20% of that of previously (Pérez & Rickardsson, 2008). Learning curves are also an integral part of energy sector and macro-economic models that aim to understand the costs of adapting our economies to low carbon futures. A number of studies have used the concept of learning curves to assess cost evolutions of developing WTs

(Coulomb & Neuhoff, 2006, Pérez & Rickardsson, 2008). However, its application to the decommissioning phase of WTs is limited to date.

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Figure 11. The installed capacity of wind power in Sweden between 2002 and 2014

Source: Svensk Energi, 2014

As shown in Figure 11, it can be observed that the capacity of wind power in Sweden has been growing by 500 MW or more per year since 2009.

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Figure 12. Forecasted decommissioning projects

Based on the data in Figure 11, Figure 12 was created. It was assumed that the operational lifespan of a wind turbine would be 22 years. Taking that assumption, more than 500 MW per year will need to be decommissioned from 2030 to 2036. As wind farms are continuing to be erected in 2015, and further targets are set for the forthcoming years, a minimum level of 500

MW per year of decommissioning can be expected to continue beyond 2036.

To date, the magnitude to which decommissioning has been carried out has been very much limited. However, if decommissioning is carried out to such an extent, the economy of scale can be expected to contribute towards lowering the costs; a cost reduction of 20% occurs each time the volume is doubled according to the theory. As discovered from the analysis of data from previous decommissioning projects in Sweden, the cost of acquiring a crane can account for as much as 50% of total costs. This is a considerably high portion of costs, but with a big increase in the amount of wind farms being decommissioned, this could be reduced quite a lot. Furthermore, a lower marginal cost for decommissioning can be expected for the larger more recently constructed wind farms such as Sidensjö, which has a total of 48 WTs.

As well as the economics of scale, by the 2030s, further technological advances can be expected. Decommissioning WTs involves using a range of equipment and processes. If recycling of scrap metal is to be carried out for example, there is a strong possibility that

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improved equipment will be available for processing the metals, thus reducing costs incurred.

There may also be significant advances in transportation methods for the WT components.

2.6 TENDER INDEX

The tender index, or “Byggindex” as it is known in Swedish, is a series of publications of construction based costs. It can provide an overall picture of the most recent data and the latest trends in the construction industry. The data, which is published each month, covers over 200 different indices, all of which are divided into primary, lower and base groups. It sets out to measure the cost of the contractor's expenses without regard to productivity and wage drift. The most recent tender index compares current costs with those from 2011. Its content is sourced from an economic overview of statistics, data from the Swedish

Construction Federation, data from Building and Planning and data from the Institute of

Economic Research amongst others. Its purpose is to provide the construction industry, policy makers and opinion leaders, with timely and comparable statistics regarding the industry's position and development (Statistiska Centralbyrån, 2015).

2.7 NORDISK VINDKRAFT’S DECOMMISSIONING COSTS MODEL

Due to the requirements of the planning system in Sweden for a security bond, NV has attempted to model the future decommissioning costs for wind farms. Initially, discussions were held between construction and generation departments in both the UK and Sweden, as well as the engineering department in Sweden. This was done to develop a specific model for estimating costs in Sweden, based on a model that had been originally developed in the UK.

The civil engineering, turbine engineering and electrical engineering teams contributed with inputs to the formula and values, such as the date for the ‘assumptions’ and ‘residual metals’ components. There were also various inputs from counties as well as knowledge sourced from Swedish construction companies, as the numbers from the initial model developed in the UK needed to be altered according to costs in Sweden. The basis for the model developed involved making updates over time, based on in-house experience and knowledge from constructing and servicing wind farms (Bernholdsson, 2015).

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The latest model, which was first approved for use on October 13 th

2013, was tailored according to the conditions in Sweden, incorporating much of the detail of the previous model. The calculations also took into consideration the report published by Consortis

Producentansvar and Svensk Vindenergi, which is reviewed as part of this thesis, as well as the reports previously featured in various applications around Sweden. With multiple sources of data and extensive analyses carried out on the model, it provides an estimation of future costs that are as accurate as possible at the current time given the uncertainties involved

(Bernholdsson, 2015).

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CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY AND DATA

As this thesis was written in collaboration with NV, a company with over twelve years of experience in developing wind farms in Sweden, data were made available for the purposes of researching a decommissioning. As part of the writing process, communication was maintained with NV staff throughout in order to ensure that the work carried out was accurate and up-to-date.

The first phase of the thesis project involved meeting the staff at NV and engaging in meetings with those who have had direct experience with the process of decommissioning wind farms in Sweden. This enabled a base to be established regarding the underlying issues surrounding decommissioning wind farms. By using this approach, a range of expertise was provided on issues such as the various decommissioning stages, scrap metal values and the range of setbacks that can emerge due to the existence of the security bond. In addition, an indepth description of the components of the decommissioning model used by NV, as well as its history and development were provided.

The next step involved carrying out a literature review of published material. Due to the time limit, the material reviewed was carefully chosen and the most relevant publications were analysed. To select the most relevant material, advice was given by thesis supervisors and extensive searches of online databases were performed. This proved effective, and a range of papers focusing on decommissioning methods, costs, regulations and scrap metal prices became available for review. Once the most relevant material was selected, it was decided to carry out the literature review chronologically in order to avoid repetition. Firstly, the thesis written by Pérez & Rickardsson (2008) on modelling economic consequences for wind turbine decommissioning in Sweden was revised. This was followed by further analysis of a report by Svensk Vindenergi published ensuing the aforementioned thesis. A journal publication from the USA on dealing with end of service life turbines, a report on wind farm decommissioning and site restoration from Sweden and a master’s thesis comparing decommissioning costs and regulations in Italy and Sweden made up the remaining material analysed.

Once a comprehensive literature review of relevant publications was completed, efforts were made to contact those who may have been involved in decommissioning projects in Sweden.

This enabled various forms of data to be collected in an attempt to gather as much relevant

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material as possible. The objective of making contact was to acquire up-to-date data on decommissioning costs, with the objective of using the data in a model. With a goal of acquiring data that would be useful in terms of updating the model, a list of questions was drafted in order to obtain the sought data. The questions compiled referred to the subsequent use of the materials and the transportation costs incurred. In the event that confidentiality was an issue, negotiations were made with those who provided the data to ensure that they, or specific details project in question, remained anonymous.

An extensive review of regulations for developing wind farms in Sweden was carried out, with emphasis placed on the potential to include scrap value and to build up the security bond over time. The requirements for security bonds and how greater demands on behalf of the developer have emerged over the last number of years was also examined. This involved examining various published literature and examining previous decisions made by the EHC and the CABs.

As part of the assessment, research that involved examining the prices for scrap metals used in WTs was carried out. This was done, primarily by reviewing the history of metal prices and subsequently exploring how the potential market may change when a large volume of

WTs would be decommissioned. The impact of the learning curve was explored.

In order to reach the goal of developing a model, there were a number of stages. Firstly, a thorough evaluation of the NV model was performed, examining the components of the model which could be used for this thesis to predict future decommissioning costs. Once this was done, selected data were extracted from the NV model and combined with data acquired from pervious decommissioning projects in Sweden. Additionally, data were sourced from published material that dealt with decommissioning costs.

3.1 MODEL

Following the acquisition of data, a model was developed consisting of four components; residual value, civil costs, electrical costs and turbine costs, along with numerous subcategories. Microsoft Excel software was used to put together and run the model. In

Appendix A, the details of the costs and formulas used in the model for simulations are attached.

45

To calculate the lowest price of copper and aluminium used in the model, the lowest price according to the World Bank in the last 25 years, as outlined in the background, was divided by the current price, giving a percentage. This was then multiplied by the current price paid for scrap, sourced from a company that deals with scrap metal in Sweden. So, for example, if the current price and lowest price from the World Bank were 35 SEK and 25 SEK respectively, and the current metal price was 30, the following calculation would be made;

30*(25/35), working out as 21.42. The period of 25 years was chosen as it is long enough to show a good degree of variation, but allows for the impact of new markets and changes in technology, while also representing a typical lifespan for a WT.

To calculate the lowest price for scrap steel, the methodology applied to copper and aluminium produced a lower figure than a real-case decommissioning project in Sweden when iron ore was the chosen metal. Instead, a 600 SEK figure was used, which was sourced from a recently completed decommissioning project.

When sourcing the costs that were used in the model, the relevant date for each cost was noted. Following this, previously published tender index documents were sourced for the dates that were used, and the relevant tender index figures according to the category of the cost were noted. Once a figure was obtained for all available costs, the tender index figures for February 2015 were obtained for the same categories. The more recent tender index figure was then divided by the earlier one to give a figure which the initial costs were calculated from by multiplying. In the event that the date for the initial cost was not available, it was decided that the cost would remain the same.

3.1.1 General Assumptions

There are number of general assumptions. Firstly, it is assumed that the project is to be developed in a location with good infrastructure with easy access to cranes and recycling centres. Additionally, a presumption is made that goods and services, such as labour and equipment, are easily acquired in the surrounding area. The model used, which was similar to the NV model, was based on the idea that decommissioning would be performed in a similar manner to commissioning, with each component being taken down on a part-by-part basis as opposed to blasting for example. For each scenario, it is assumed that one met mast would be necessary given that the largest quantity of turbines is 35.

46

A reduction in costs of 1% per year is deducted from total costs. It is assumed that the project will be decommissioned in 22 years, and based on Figure 12, over 500 MW of wind energy is set to be decommissioned from 2030 onwards. A total of seven years with a 1% cost reduction is assumed for a project installed in 2015.

3.1.2 Civil costs – assumptions

The following is assumed:

All roads new and upgraded are left on site

All of the internal cable is dug out and removed from the site

Foundations are cut to a depth of 0.3 metres below surface and the area is refilled

The substation is demobilised and removed from the site

Foundation volumes are based on the known value for one of the chosen WTs used as a scenario, and calculated for the others based on the power of the other turbines. The ground conditions surrounding foundations are assumed not to be standard without any complications. The weight of rebar is calculated by assuming that it is 11% of the foundation volume. The weight of the transformer is assumed to be 1 tonne per MW installed. For all scenarios, it was assumed that WT foundations are partially removed to a depth of 0.3 metres.

All volume based transport including disposal is taken as an assumed average distance of 60 kilometres, at an average speed of 60 kilometres per hour for the truck. The calculated costs for disposal were calculated by NV and generally based on volumes calculated from generic drawing and available calculations such as construction cost estimates and land use calculations.

All civil works including ground works are based on the assumption that materials are distributed in the surrounding area. While machine time for the excavator was included, transportation costs to the site were not included.

3.1.3 Electrical costs - assumptions

The cable length required for each scenario was based on a ratio similar to previous NV projects and weighted according to the number of turbines in the different scenarios.

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It was assumed that 50 metres of cable is pulled per hour and 1 000 metres is pulled in order for cable to be loaded each time for transport to the scrap yard.

3.1.4 Turbine costs - assumptions

For the crane, both a mobilisation cost and an hourly rate based on size of crane required were included. The cost of moving the crane between turbines was included in the number of hours used for decommissioning a turbine. An initial figure of 600 000 SEK for Crane mobilisation and 5 000 SEK per hour for a 1000 tonne crane were sourced from a crane company. Based on published material, it was assumed that a 500 tonne crane would be required for hub-heights up to 100 metres, a 750 tonne crane required for heights up to 125 metres and a 1000 tonne crane necessary for a hub-height equal to or greater than 125 metres hub-heights. According to that available data for a 1000 tonne crane, the mobilisation and hourly operational costs for 500 tonne and 750 tonne cranes were acquired simply by dividing the cost by the weight of the crane.

As the weights of the tower sections were not available for all WT types, the available weights for the tower sections were used to calculate the other models. This was done on a weighted basis, taking into consideration the total height of the tower and the power of the turbine. The turbine hub-heights were sourced from available data from NV and from published material.

The weight of the hub and nacelle was calculated based on known weight for 3MW turbine and scaled for other turbines according to the power of the turbine. The weight of the turbine transformer was assumed to be 25% of the weight of the hub.

According to a decommissioning project carried out in Sweden that involved cutting up towers for scrap steel, an assumption of using two articulated lorries is used, considering that the scrap steel was cut in 14 metre lengths.

To calculate the weight of the cables to be removed, as presented in Table A5 in Appendix A, the following assumptions are made:

The weight of aluminium is approximately 2700 kilograms per metre cubed

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Three sizes of cable are available; 95, 240 and 400

For the cable trench, in terms of length, they use 50% of 95, 25% of 240 and 25% of

400

The cable cross section area i.e. 240 millimetres squared has a volume of 0.24 metres cubed/kilometre

3.2 SCENARIOS

Once the model was complete, a total of seven simulations were run to test the model, each for a different scenario with unique specifications, in terms of quantity and the model of WT, or both. Initially the scenarios tested were the first four, as presented in Table 6, followed by a further three used for the purpose of identifying the impact of the number of WTs on the costs.

Table 6. A summary of the various scenarios tested in the model

Scenario

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Turbine

Vestas V112

Nordex N117

Siemens SWT 107

Vestas V82

Vestas V112

Vestas V112

Vestas V112

Power

(MW)

3

2.4

3.6

1.65

3

3

3

Hub Height

(metres)

125

116.5

120

78

125

125

125

Quantity

13

35

8

20

8

20

35

The scenarios chosen, as outlined in Table 6, were selected based on the specifications of typical projects, proposed and installed in Sweden. These data were sourced by reviewing previous applications made by NV and other companies, and noting turbine characteristics and quantities. Scenario 1 represents the specifications of the previously proposed

Treriksröset wind farm in terms of the power output of the selected WT and the quantity of turbines, for which an EHC decision was based upon.

49

In order to assess the impact of scale on the cost of decommissioning and the revenue gained from scrap, the WT in scenario 1 of Table 6 was used for three further simulations; scenarios

5, 6 and 7, with the number of turbines being the only parameter that changed. The Vestas

V112 turbine was chosen as more data were publicly available for this model than for the other turbines.

Figure 13. A flowchart of the methodology

Figure 13 shows the various areas that are explored as part of the thesis. The thesis sets out to examine previously published materials, current regulations, scrap metal prices and the use of a model to estimate future costs.

In Chapter 4, the output of the model for all scenarios presented in Table 6 is outlined.

A discussion in Chapter 5 provides an evaluation of the findings regarding the results of the model simulations, applicable regulations and what the future holds for scrap metal.

In Chapter 6, the conclusion, recommendations for regulations are made according to the findings of the research carried out. In addition, proposals are provided in relation to how this research can be fostered and improved.

50

CHAPTER 4. APPLICATION OF THE METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS

In Chapter 4 the outcome of the scenarios outlined in the methodology are presented. The results for the cost of decommissioning and the residual value for seven different scenarios are illustrated on a cost per WT basis.

Table 7. Estimated costs for decommissioning and estimated residual values for the

Scenario selected scenarios as presented in Table 6

Turbine Quantity

Cost of decommissioning

per

WT (SEK)

Residual value per WT (SEK)

1 Vestas V112 – 3MW 13 478 950 228 360

2

Nordex N117 – 2.4 MW 35 405 400 213 120

3

Siemens SWT 107 – 3.6 MW 8 445 460 205 030

4

Vestas V82 – 1.65 MW 20 351 260 100 735

Table 7 presents the results of the scenarios illustrated in Table 6 in the methodology, where the model was applied taking into account the specifications of the WTs and their quantity.

The same assumptions were applied uniformly for all scenarios.

Table 8. Estimated costs for decommissioning and estimated residual values which account for the impact of scale on the output of the model

Scenario

Turbine Quantity

Cost of decommissioning

per

WT (SEK)

Residual value per WT (SEK)

5

Vestas V112 - 3MW

8 501 450 218 348

1 13 478 950 228 360

6

Vestas V112 - 3MW

Vestas V112 - 3MW

20 446 380 222 330

7

Vestas V112 - 3MW

35 428 950 222 480

In Table 8, the results of the scenarios used to evaluate the impact of the scale of the wind farm are presented, with only the quantity of WTs varying.

51

Figure 14. An illustration of the results for each of the seven scenarios tested

Figure 14 provides an illustration of the results obtained for each of the seven scenarios run using the model. Both the estimated costs of decommissioning and the residual value for each scenario on a per WT basis can be observed.

52

Table 9. The impact of applying the tender index to the sourced costs

B: Rates and Prices

1.40 Labour cost

1.41 Electrician

1.42 Technician

1.43 Welder / cutter

1.44 General operator / Field personnel

1.45 Banksman/ Unskilled labour / Rebar bender

1.46 Rigger

1.47 Construction worker

1.50 Equipment costs

1.51

Small excavator, wheel driven and/or caterpillar incl. Operator

1.52 Large excavator, caterpillar incl. operator

1.53 Pneumatic breaker

1.54 Dumper

1.55 Small to Medium Truck 3 or 4 axels

1.56 Large Truck & trailer, 30 ton

1.57 30 tonne all terrain crane

1.58 50 tonne all terrain crane

1.59 1000 tonne crane

1.60 750 tonne crane

1.61 500 tonne crane

1.62 Electric working platform (Skylift)

1.63 Telescopic loader

1.64 Oil pump

1.65 Waste container

1.66 Plate compactor (hydraulic)

1.67 Cherry picker access platform

Initial cost in SEK per hour

360

280

470

460

440

390

320

750

2 030

5 000

4 170

3 330

660

300

130

1 250

120

870

850

900

1 430

20

110

660

Price updated according to the 2015 tender index

450

380

330

350

270

460

470

760

2 050

5 000

4 170

3 330

670

300

130

1 310

120

880

830

880

1 440

20

110

660

Based on the costs acquired for labour and equipment, the tender index was applied to the figures and the results can be observed in Table 9. The column on the right represents the recent tender index for February 2015.

53

CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

This chapter contains comparison between data sourced and discussion of the results presented in Chapter 4.

In Table 7 it can be observed that, despite the expected impact of the economics of scale to reduce costs by simply having a larger quantity of WTs, it is not always the outcome. The results for scenario 1 show a higher cost for decommissioning than scenario 3 on a per unit basis, despite the greater number of WTs. When comparing scenarios 2 and 3 in Table 7, even though there is a higher decommissioning cost for scenario 3, the residual value per WT is lower than scenario 2. This outlines the importance of treating each case on a specific basis, to include WT specifications. For scenario 4 in Table 7, the decommissioning costs were considerably lower in comparison to the other scenarios. This can be partially attributed to the fact that this was the only scenario for which the 750 tonne crane was used. In addition, scenario 4 had a noticeably lower residual than the other scenarios. This is predominantly due to the lower WT tower, meaning less metal is available to contribute towards the residual value of the WT. For all of the scenarios presented, the residual value is much lower than the decommissioning cost; this identifies the need for a security bond to exist.

Taking into consideration the range in figures, as presented in Table 7 and Table 8, it is evident that the magnitude and specifications of a project can have a bearing on the costs of decommissioning. This strengthens the argument for wind farm decommissioning costs to be treated on a case-by-case basis as opposed to a “one size fits all” approach.

The results presented in Table 8 allow for the impact of scale to be determined as the WT model remains the same for all scenarios. From the table, it can be observed that, as the number of WTs increases, the cost decreases as expected. The residual value, on the other hand, changes somewhat but not to the same degree as costs. When comparing scenarios 6 and 7, where there is a difference in 15 WTs in quantity, there is very little difference in terms of residual value, while the difference in decommissioning cost is more evident. A figure close to 220 000 SEK is predicted as a residual value for each scenario. Once again, the results of this table, specifically those for decommissioning costs, outline the need to treat each wind farm on a case-by-case basis.

Table 9 illustrates the impact of the application of the tender index to acquired costs for labour and equipment. While some costs such as that for a large excavator increased, others

54

like the cost for small to medium 3 or 4 axel trucks decreased. It is important to consider that, for many of the costs that remained the same; the index could not be applied to update costs as a consequence of dates for the sourced costs not being available. Overall, for the costs that could be updated the impact was not large enough to cause figures to change by a lot.

However, many of the costs acquired were relevantly recent and released over the past two years, which may explain the lack of diversity in figures.

Regarding the assumptions in the model, a 22 year lifespan was assumed for WTs for the purpose of forecasting future decommissioning costs. This may represent a typical lifespan, but in Sweden many WTs have been decommissioned after 15 years. This trend has partly been as a result of the advantages of the option to repower WTs after 15 years, before their lifespan has ceased. However, it may be the case that WTs commissioned and installed today may well exceed the lifespan of 22 years. Green tradable certificates, the economic support mechanism for renewable energy in Sweden, are likely to play a role in the outcome. The application of a 1% reduction in costs for learning curve, as recommended by Pérez &

Rickardsson (2008), was shown to increase costs by approximately 7% for a seven year period. The scale at which wind farms are being developed on an international scale should contribute positively to the reduction in costs, and as soon as decommissioning begins on a large scale, this should be observed. Costs for cranes and metal processing for recycling in particular can be expected to reduce. Given the magnitude to which wind farm decommissioning is expected to occur, it is reasonable to assume that companies that specialise in providing this service will emerge.

With the assumption made to remove foundations to a depth of 0.3 metres, it may be necessary to increase this figure for farm land for example. This assumption was made in the absence of guidelines. CABs currently have discretion with regard to the degree to which it is necessary to restore a site after the lifetime of the wind farm. As mentioned previously, this has caused confusion for all parties involved. As well as the removal of foundations, this ambiguity also surrounds cable removal requirements. To reach a solution, a set of guidelines should be published and the necessary remediation level should be outlined when the security bond is demanded by the CAB.

Regarding costs, it is worth noting that between now and the time of decommissioning a WT, costs of transport and disposal may rise considerably. Currently, as outlined by Aldén et al.

55

(2014), landfill was seen as the most feasible option to dispose of WT blades within Sweden.

In some countries it is forbidden to send WT blades to landfill, and there is no reason to suggest that such legislation will not be introduced in Sweden. However, recent research has been performed on WT blades to identify how their composition could be made more environmentally friendly; this could make disposal future more straightforward.

As pointed out by Giovannini (2014), the cost of cranes in decommissioning can account for a large proportion of overall costs. Despite attempts to contact crane companies, there was a lack of data on crane costs for the purpose of this study. One key factor in decommissioning a wind farm is the location of the project. This was emphasised by Aldén et al. (2014) who discussed the impact of project location. Ortegon, Nies & Sutherland (2013) claimed that transport costs had a major bearing on overall costs, and these are ultimately affected by the location of the project and the destination for material transportation. In Sweden, locations such as the island of Gotland or rural parts of Norrbotten County may not have the required resources for decommissioning, such as cranes and scrap recycling facilities, meaning greater needs for material transportation. Given that the model assumes an average distance of 60 kilometres for the availability of most services, and an average speed of 60 kilometres per hour is assumed for travel, these are key limitations of the research. Ideally, the impact of location would have been tested as part of this study, but efforts to source data proved unsuccessful.

Current trends show that there is a considerably large market for second-hand turbines for further use, and also a market for spare parts. It is worth noting that, as pointed out by Aldén

et al. (2014), smaller WTs are easier to resell, and more recently commissioned turbines are larger than previously, which is likely to be a disadvantage for developers. As WTs grow in size, the quantity of metals is greater and this in turn means that more scrap metal will be available at the end of the WT lifecycle. Taking into consideration the review of metal prices over the past 25 years, it is clear that metal prices can fluctuate a lot. The metal prices used in the model are very realistic, as prices were initially sourced from a metal recycling company in Sweden and how the lowest market price may have a bearing was also factored into the inputs for the lowest metal prices used.

This model assumes that a scrap value for metal is allowed at the very least. Many of the previously decommissioned turbines in Sweden have been shipped abroad for further use, so

56

in theory, using the lowest scrap metal price would essentially be a worst case scenario. This model is based on the assumption that decommissioning is carried out similar to commissioning, whereby the WT is taken down part-by-part. If it was decided prior to decommissioning that all parts of the WT would be used for scrap and sent to landfill, it may be an option to do a controlled method using explosives. This would likely reduce costs by a considerable amount and mean that a large crane would no longer be required.

The options for paying security bonds presented in Table 4 illustrate a variety of approaches previously accepted by CABs. While many CABs demanded that the security bond was paid in full up front, there was also a range of alternative payment sequences accepted, with most popular of those options being an initial instalment followed by payments after 10, 15, 20 years of the project being commissioned. The need to provide the full amount up front may be challenging for some developers, particularly smaller ones. It is also worrying for developers that the amount being demanded has raised considerably in recent years. The most recent decision made for Treriksröset wind farm not to allow the security bond to be built up over time may have a major influence on future amounts demanded for security bonds, especially when previous EHC decisions are often considered. If at the very least, the amount for scrap metal price of WTs was factored, this would ease the pressure on developers to provide large amounts of capital up front. After all, it is reasonable and rational to assume that the metals used in WTs will have a value when the WT comes to the end of its service life. Facilitating numerous payment instalments would allow for revenue gained from electricity sales from the project to be paid to the CAB. Generally, in the early stage of a project, it is worth a lot, and this is a means of safety that adds to the case for gradually building up the security bond. A key advantage of the CAB to facilitate payments towards the security bond in numerous instalments is that the payments demanded can be made according to the economic situation. It is evident that, in order to reach a more improved approach,

CABs need to begin assessing developments on a case-by-case basis, rather than using an approach that predominantly relies on previous values.

As well as there being a tendency by CABs to refer to previous EHC decisions for recent developments, developers have also been identified to refer to previously made decisions and the model from the report produced by Consortis Producentansvar AB and Svensk

Vindenergi AB. This thesis in many ways encourages some developers to move to a calculation-based approach as opposed to referring to previous decisions and applications.

57

CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS

The overall objective of this project was, firstly to identify the need to use a model according to the specific project proposed and secondly, to make a case for scrap metal at the very least to be considered when a demand for a security bond is made by the CAB. As the use of a model-based approach has been somewhat limited to date as a means of estimating the cost for decommissioning, and the value scrap metal is currently disregarded in these figures, this is currently a relevant topic in Sweden. Initially, the background to the issue was investigated. This was followed by a review of published literature. A total of seven simulations run using a model showed results that outlined the impact of turbine specifications and scale. The application of a tender index to costs acquired allowed for the changes over time to be observed.

Due to the lack of data available, particularly for crane costs and WT specifications, this project was in many ways limited. There were a number of assumptions made that may not reflect the status of decommissioning in the future. In spite of the lack of data and the relatively short period of time that was available to complete this project, the outcomes identified how improvements could be made to the process of estimating future decommissioning costs. To reach a more comprehensive conclusion, a more detailed model that would identify the impact of wind farm location on the overall costs, rather than use the assumption that many goods and services are available within close proximity to the wind farm, would be beneficial.

The model used was put together using a range of data from published material, the NV model and information sourced from real-case decommissioning projects in Sweden. When details regarding WT specifications were not available, calculations were made based on available data and scaled accordingly. As part of the estimations, the residual value of metals in WTs was considered. The findings showed that the model of WT selected and the scale of the development had a considerable bearing on the estimated costs for decommissioning. In addition, in all scenarios, the cost of decommissioning was much higher than the estimated residual value. Overall, the need for a security bond is recognised and the need to treat proposed developments on a case-by-case basis is highlighted as better alternative to using a

“one size fits all” approach.

58

In Italy, decommissioning legislation has proven to be a major barrier in developing wind farms according to Giovannini (2014). To ensure further clean energy resources in the form of wind energy are developed, Sweden should now recognise the need to move towards facilitating developers more by encouraging a more detailed model-based approach to be used to recognise the individuality of each wind farm, considering that this is a factor in the costs that will be incurred. It is important that the security bond is realistic for all parties. It is logical to assume that the WT value will at least have residual value in the event that reselling is not feasible. As mentioned, the objective is to set a bond to cover costs, and not to exceed costs. A more accurate approach and a publication of further guidelines would see a greater sense of clarity for all stakeholders. By permitting scrap metal values to be accounted for in a model-based approach, and facilitating bonds to be paid over the duration of the project, this would allow for an extensive improvement to the overall process.

59

REFERENCES

Aldén, L., Ansén Nilsson, M., Barney, A., & Ekman, M. E. (2014). Nedmontering av

vindkraftverk och efterbehandling av platsen. Stockholm: Energimyndigheten.

Aldén, L & Barney, A. (2015). Security bonds per County Administrative Boards in Sweden year 2009 to 2012. Unpublished data.

Ardefors, F., Lindkvist, M., Pérez, O. & Rickardsson, E., (2009). Vindkraftverk–kartläggning

av aktiviteter och kostnader vid nedmontering, återställande av plats och återvinning.

Stockholm: Consortis AB.

Bernholdsson, A. (2015). Interviewed by: John McCarthy. (March 26 th

2015).

Biz Development, (2008) Sustainable Competitive Advantage (B). http://www.bizdevelopment.com/SupplyChain/6.2.Sustainable-Competitive-Advantage.htm

[Accessed

May 6 2015].

Coulomb, L., & Neuhoff, K. (2006). Learning curves and changing product attributes: the case of wind turbines. Available online at: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1810/131662/eprg0601.pdf?sequence

=1 [Accessed May 5 2015].

DP Energy, (2015). Technologies. Available online at: http://www.dpenergy.com/technologies/ [Accessed April 25 2015].

EC (European Commission) (2012). Directive 2011/92/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 December 2011 on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment (codification). European Commission OJ L 26; 1-

21. Available online at: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2012:026:0001:0021:EN:PDF

[Accessed April 27 2015].

Giovannini, G. (2014). Wind Farm decommissioning: A perspective on regulations and cost

assessment in Italy and Sweden. Published Master’s thesis. Uppsala University.

Available online at: http://www.divaportal.se/smash/get/diva2:767553/FULLTEXT01.pdf

[Accessed April 12, 2015].

IWEA (Irish Wind Energy Association), (2015). Wind Energy Technology. Available online at: http://www.iwea.com/technicalfaqs [Accessed April 26 2015].

Kårehamnsporten, Environmental High Court no M 5960-08, (2009). Environmental High

Court.

Ortegon, K., Nies, L. F., & Sutherland, J. W. (2013). Preparing for end of service life of wind turbines. Journal of Cleaner Production, 39, 191-199.

Pérez, O. & Rickardsson, E. (2008). What goes up must come down – modelling economic

consequences of wind turbine decommissioning. Published Master’s thesis. Lund

University. Available online at: http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=1351439&fileOId=2

435160 [Accessed April 10, 2015].

60

Statistiska Centralbyrån, (2015). Entreprenadindex. Available online at: http://www.byggindex.scb.se/BX-om.htm

[Accessed May 15 2015].

Svensk Energi, (2014). Elåret Verksamheten 2014. Available online at: http://www.svenskenergi.se/Global/Statistik/El%C3%A5ret/El%C3%A5ret%202014_slu tutg%C3%A5va.pdf

[Accessed May 6 2015].

Svensk Vindenergi, (2015). Statistik. Available online at: http://www.vindkraftsbranschen.se/statistik/2015-2/ [Accessed May 5 2015].

Sweden, (2015). Energy use in Sweden. Available online at: https://sweden.se/society/energy-use-in-sweden/ [Accessed April 25 2015].

Taka Aapua, Environmental High Court no M 2210-08, (2008). Environmental High Court.

Treriksröset, Environmental High Court no M 9473-14, (2014). Environmental High Court.

Vänersborg, Environmental court M 1640-10, (2010). Environmental Court Vänersborg.

Vänersborg, Environmental Court M 2227-09, (2010). Environmental Court Vänersborg.

Vindlov, (2015). Ekonomisk säkerhet/nedmontering. Available online at: http://www.vindlov.se/sv/Test/Ekonomisk-sakerhetnedmontering/ [Accessed April 7

2015].

World Bank (2015). Databank. Available online at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/chart.aspx

[Accessed April 29 2015].

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150422.pdf

[Accessed April 26 2015].

61

APPENDIX A. COSTS AND FORMULAS USED IN THE MODEL

Table A1. Project inputs

Decommissioning Cost Estimate of Wind Farm

A: Project Inputs

1.10 Project Description

1.11 Name of project

1.12 Location of Project

1.13 Level of foundation to be cut (depth)

1.14 Turbine make and model

1.20 Technical information

1.21 No. of Wind Turbines

1.22 Foundation size (m3)

1.23 Amount of rebar (tonne)

1.24 No. of Met Masts

1.25 No. of Control Buildings / Substations

1.26 No. of Grid Transformers

1.27 Weight of hub

1.28 Weight of nacelle

1.29 Weight of Transformer

1.30 Weight of tower - 5 base (tonne)

1.31 Weight of tower - 4 mid (tonne)

1.32 Weight of tower - 3 mid (tonne)

1.33 Weight of tower - 2 mid (tonne)

1.34 Weight of tower - 1 top (tonne)

1.35 Weight of turbine transformer (0.25*weight of hub)

1.36 Lowest price of scrap steel (SEK/tonne)

1.37 Lowest price of scrap Copper (SEK/tonne)

1.38 Lowest price of scrap Al (SEK/tonne)

1.39 Length of Cable trench (m)

Table A2. Labour and equipment costs

B: Rates and Prices

1.40 Labour cost

1.41 Electrician

1.42 Technician

1.43 Welder / cutter

1.44 General operator / Field personnel

1.45 Banksman/ Unskilled labour / Rebar bender

1.46 Rigger

1.47 Construction worker

1.50 Equipment costs

1.51 Small excavator, wheel driven and/or caterpillar incl. Operator

1.52 Large excavator, caterpillar incl. operator

1.53 Pneumatic breaker

1.54 Dumper

1.55 Small to Medium Truck 3 or 4 axels

1.56 Large Truck & trailer, 30 ton

1.57 30 tonne all terrain crane

1.58 50 tonne all terrain crane

1.59 1000 tonne crane

1.60 750 tonne crane

1.61 500 tonne crane

1.62 Electric working platform (Skylift)

1.63 Telescopic loader

1.64 Oil pump

1.65 Waste container

1.66 Plate compactor (hydraulic)

1.67 Cherry picker access platform

Table A3. Deposit fees

1.70 Deposit- / disposal fees

1.71 Low risk deposits

1.72 Standards risk deposits

1.73 High risk deposits

1.74 Oil (recyclable)

62

Hourly SEK/time

450

380

330

350

270

460

470

760

1 310

120

880

830

880

1 440

2 050

5 000

4 170

3 330

670

300

130

20

110

660

Unit

tonne tonne tonne

240 litres

Unit cost in SEK

0

100

1 200

320

1.10

1.11

1.20

1.23

1.30

1.33

2.24

2.25

2.26

2.27

2.28

2.00

2.20

2.23

Table A4. Residual Value

Ref Description

1.00 Electrical works

Disconnect grid

Disconnect conductors/ All cables and cart salvaged for scrap value

Decommission substation

Dismantle Substation equipment and cart to salvage transformer for Scrap value.

Decommission Turbine Transformers

Remove transformer and cart to salvage for scrap value

Turbine works

Dismantle Turbine

Remove nacelle from tower load directly onto transport and send to salvage for scrap value

Remove tower top section, cut up & cart to salvage for scrap value

Remove tower mid-section 1, cut up & cart to salvage for scrap value

Remove tower mid-section 2, cut up & cart to salvage for scrap value

Remove tower mid-section 3, cut up & cart to salvage for scrap value

Remove tower lower section, cut up & cart to salvage for scrap value

Tonne

Tonne

Tonne

Tonne

Tonne

Tonne

1

Unit

Tonne

Tonne

Rate

Min price Aluminium

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Min price scrap steel

Total units

(Tonne)

Total weight of cables

Weight of substation transformer

Weight of turbine transformer

Weight of component

Weight of component

Weight of component

Weight of component

Weight of component

Weight of component

No. Of

-

Number of substations

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Number of turbines

Cost

Rate*Total units

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

Rate*Total units*Number of

63

Table A5. Cable weight calculation costs

64

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