HISTO RICAL DA ATA REV

HISTO RICAL DA ATA REV
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
HISTORICAL DA
ATA REV
VIEW OF RADICAL
R
LIZATION
N AND THE
ECONO
OMY IN CANADA
C
Gauthie
er, M., Lam
moureux, T.., Samy, Y., and Race
e, P.
CAE Pro
ofessionall Services
Project Manager:
w Keown
Matthew
PWGSC
C CONTRA
ACT #: W77
711-088140
0
PWGSC
C CALL-UP
P #: 04
Contrac
ct Scientific Authority
y:
Dr. Lian
nne McLellan
Defence
e R&D Can
nada - Toro
onto
Terms of
o release:
The scien
ntific or tech
hnical validity
y of this Con
ntract Report
rt is entirely tthe responsiibility of the
contracto
or and the co
ontents do not
n necessarrily have the approval orr endorseme
ent of Defencce
R&D Can
nada
Defence
D
R&
&D Canada
a
Contrac
ct Report
DRD
DC Toronto
o CR 2012 -006
CAE
C
PS Doc
cument No
o. 5035-004
4 Version 0
03
1 1 T H J A N U A R Y 2012.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–i –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Princ
cipal Autho
or
Tab Lamoureuxx
Senio
or Consulta
ant
App
proved by
Liann
ne McLella n
Contract Scientific
S
Au
uthority
Approve
ed for releasse by
S. Sttergiopoulo
os
Chair, Do
ocument Re
eview and L
Library Com
mmittee
Defence
D
R&D Canada – Toronto
11th Janu
uary 2012
–ii –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
REVISION HISTORY
Revisiion
Reaso
on for Chan
nge
Origin
n Date
Version 01
Initial document
d
is
ssued
23 Deccember 201
10
Version 02
Comm
ments of SA incorporate
ed
22 Deccember 201
11
Version 03
Comm
ments of SA incorporate
ed
6 Janu
uary 2012
11th Janu
uary 2012
–iii –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Th
his page inttentionally lleft blank.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–iv –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
ABSTRACT
A contra
act was awa
arded to pe
erform a sta
atistical time
e series ana
alysis on re
eadily availa
able
open-so
ource data concerning
c
economic indicators a
and radicaliization overr the past 1
100
years. Upon
U
comm
mencing this
s work, it be
ecame clear that it wass difficult to
o obtain
compreh
hensive rad
dicalization data going back 100 yyears, altho
ough there were good
data from
m 1960 onw
wards. It als
so became clear that tthese data were not in
n electronicc
form and
d therefore needed to be manually entered into a brand
d new data
abase. This
database, combinin
ng socio-po
olitical, econ
nomic and radicalizatio
on data, wa
as duly
compiled
d and used
d to perform
m several sta
atistical ana
alyses, inclluding simp
ple descriptive
statistics
s, bivariate correlations, time seriies analysiss, and simp
ple and multiple linear
regression. Althoug
gh one might intuitively
y assume that povertyy or econom
mic hardship
are inex
xorably linke
ed with radiicalization, violent extrremism and
d terrorism, the statistical
analyses
s performed
d for this co
ontract do not
n support this assum
mption. Of th
he 31 socio
opolitical and economic variables, only tho
ose pertaining to urban and rural population
n
ratios we
ere statistic
cally signific
cantly relate
ed to total n
number of rradical even
nts. The
database nevertheless provides a basis for future d
detailed ana
alyses of op
pen-source
regional economic and radicalization data, or classified version
ns of the sa
ame.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–v –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
RÉSUMÉ
Un contrrat a été atttribué en vu
ue de l’analyse de sérries statistiq
ques chrono
ologiques à
partir de
e données d’accès
d
libre et facile portant
p
sur les indicate
eurs économiques et la
radicalis
sation des cent
c
dernièrres années
s. Dès le dé
ébut de la re
echerche, ill a fallu
reconna
aître qu’il éta
ait difficile d’obtenir
d
de
es donnéess complètess sur la radiicalisation q
qui
remonta
aient à cent ans, mais il a été pos
ssible de co
ompiler des données in
ntéressante
es et
utiles à partir
p
de 19
960. Toutefo
ois, ces données n’éta
aient pas so
ous forme é
électronique et
il a fallu les inscrire
e manuellem
ment dans une
u toute n
nouvelle basse de donn
nées. Nous
avons donc constitué cette ba
ase de donn
nées, avec des donné
ées à caracttère
sociopollitique et éc
conomique ainsi que des
d donnée
es sur la rad
dicalisation, et l’avons
utilisée pour
p
effectu
uer plusieurrs analyses
s statistique
es, dont dess analyses de statistiq
ques
descriptives, des co
orrélations bidimensio
onnelles, de
es analysess de séries chronologiq
ques
ainsi que
e des régre
essions liné
éaires simplles et multip
ples. Force
e est de con
nstater que la
pauvreté
é ou les diffficultés éco
onomiques ne sont pass inexorable
ement liéess à la
radicalis
sation, à l’ex
xtrémisme violent et au
a terrorism
me, comme les analyse
es statistiqu
ues
exécutées dans le cadre du co
ontrat l’ont révélé et co
ontrairement à ce qu’o
on aurait pu
u
imaginer. Des 31 variables
v
so
ociopolitique
es et écono
omiques étu
udiées, seu
ules celles q
qui
avaient trait
t
aux rattios de pop
pulation urba
aine et rura
ale présenta
aient un lien
statistiqu
uement significatif ave
ec le nombrre d’actes ra
adicaux. La
a base de d
données se
ervira
néanmo
oins de fond
dement à d’’autres ana
alyses détai llées de do
onnées économiques
régionales et de do
onnées sur la radicalis
sation libress d’accès, a
ainsi que de
e données
protégée
es.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–vi –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduc
ction: Defe
ence Resea
arch and De
evelopmentt Canada (D
DRDC) – T
Toronto wass
tasked to investigate the effec
ct of the 200
08 global ecconomic do
ownturn on the potential
for radic
calization within Canad
da. As a part of this efffort, CAE P
Professional Services w
was
contractted to condu
uct a historrical data re
eview of rad
dical groupss and eventts and theirr
relation to a range of socio-ec
conomic ind
dicators ove
er the past 100 years. The focus of
ative was to
o use existing electron
nic database
al events an
this initia
es of radica
nd socioeconomic factors in
n Canada in
n pursuit off a wide-ran
nging review
w of data to
o investigate
e
the link between
b
so
ocio-econom
mic factors,, and radica
alization an
nd violent exxtremism.
Methods: Initial effforts focuse
ed on the co
ompilation a
and mergin
ng of two co
omprehensive
1960
datasets
s: (1) radica
al, violent extremism and
a terroristt events related to Can
nada from 1
to 2007; and (2) so
ocio-econom
mic and political factorrs over the past 100 ye
ears. After
compilin
ng the data, the team conducted
c
a systemat ic series off statistical a
analyses off the
radicaliz
zation datab
base, culminating in tim
me series a
and regresssion analyses.
Quantita
ative analys
ses examined how soc
cio-econom
mic indicatorrs co-vary w
with indicators
of radica
alization and violent ex
xtremism in
n Canada.
Results
s: Correlatio
onal analyses between
n the Canad
dian socio-economic a
and radical
events data
d
uncove
ered few sig
gnificant co
orrelations. In particula
ar, there wa
as no
relations
ship betwee
en radical events
e
and other cycliccal econom
mic indicatorrs such as tthe
percenta
age of popu
ulation belo
ow the pove
erty line, unemploymen
nt, or inflation. There w
were
mild rela
ationships between
b
lon
nger-term aggregate
a
ssocio-econo
omic trendss and radica
al
events, such as the
e increase in
i the perce
entage of urban population and the decreasse in
infant mortality, tho
ough these relationship
ps did not rreach levelss of statisticcal significa
ance
ded in any model for predicting
p
trrends in rad
dicalization related to a
enough to be includ
changing socio-eco
onomic clim
mate.
Discuss
sion: The current
c
anallyses uncov
vered scant covariancce between number off
radical events
e
and socio-econ
nomic indica
ators, thus demonstrating that tre
ends in
Canadia
an radical events are most
m
likely not
n caused by macro-level socio--economic
factors. Further, the
e databases compiled as a part o
of this proje
ect serve ass a foundation
for future
e qualitative
e and quan
ntitative ana
alysis of Ca
anadian rad
dical eventss. Findings iin
other relationships, su
this project suggest future res
search into examining
e
uch as regio
onal
socio-ec
conomic data, identifying changes
s in specificc radical ca
ampaigns, o
or global
compara
ative analys
sis to states
s with simila
ar and uniq
que socio-economic co
ontexts. It iss
hoped th
hat future in
nitiatives se
eek to continue upon ssuch data ccollection an
nd analysiss.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–vii –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
SOMMAIRE
Introduc
ction – Rec
cherche et développement pour la défense Canada (R
RDDC) –
Toronto a été charg
gé d’analys
ser l’inciden
nce du ralen
ntissement économiqu
ue mondial de
2008 sur le risque de
d radicalis
sation au Canada. Dan
ns cette optique, CAE Services
professionnels s’es
st vu confier la réalisattion d’un exxamen de d
données hisstoriques su
ur
les groupes et acte
es radicaux des cent dernières an
nnées et de
e leur relatio
on avec un
urs. Ce projet s’articula
ait autour des bases d
de donnéess existantess sur
éventail d’indicateu
les actes
s radicaux et les facte
eurs socioéc
conomiquess au Canad
da et devaitt donner lie
eu à
une vastte analyse du lien entrre les facteurs socioécconomiquess et la radiccalisation e
et
l’extrémisme violen
nt.
Méthodes – Les prremières éttapes étaient centréess sur la com
mpilation et la fusion de
e
deux séries de don
nnées exhaustives, l’un
ne portant ssur les acte
es radicauxx, les actes
d’extrém
misme violent et les ac
ctes de terro
orismes exé
écutés au C
Canada enttre 1960 et
2007, ett l’autre sur les facteurrs socioéco
onomiques e
et politiques qui se so
ont manifesttés
au cours
s des cent dernières
d
années.
a
Aprrès avoir co
ompilé les d
données, no
ous avons
mené un
ne série d’a
analyses sta
atistiques systématiqu
s
ues des don
nnées sur la
a radicalisa
ation,
en termiinant par de
es analyses
s chronolog
giques et de
e régression. Les anallyses
quantitatives nous ont permis d’examiner comment les indicate
eurs socioé
économique
es
nt avec les indicateurs
s de radicaliisation et d’extrémism
me violent au
u Canada.
covarien
Résulta
ats – Les an
nalyses de corrélation entre les fa
acteurs soccioéconomiques et less
actes radicaux n’on
nt fait resso
ortir que peu
u de corréla
ations statisstiquementt significativves.
Ainsi, il n’existe
n
auc
cun lien entre les acte
es radicaux et les autre
es indicateu
urs
économiques cycliq
ques tels qu
ue la propo
ortion de la population qui vit en d
deçà du seu
uil
vreté, le chô
ômage ou l’inflation. Si des relatio
ons ténues ont été dég
gagées enttre
de pauv
les actes
s radicaux et les tenda
ances socio
oéconomiqu
ues globale
es à long te
erme, telles
l’augmentation de la
l proportio
on de la pop
pulation urb
baine et la b
baisse de la
a mortalité
infantile, ces relatio
ons n’étaien
nt pas suffis
samment significativess sur le plan statistique
e intégrées
s dans un modèle
m
de prévision
p
de
e la tendancce à la radicalisation d
dans
pour être
un clima
at socioécon
nomique év
volutif
Analyse
e – Les trav
vaux ont mis au jour une faible co
ovariance e
entre le nom
mbre d’acte
es
radicaux
x et les indicateurs soc
cioéconomiiques, et dé
émontrent q
que les acte
es radicauxx au
Canada ne sont tou
ut probable
ement pas attribuables
a
s à des factteurs socioé
économique
es
au macro. Par
P ailleurs,, les bases de donnée
es compilée
es dans le ccadre de ce
e
au nivea
projet se
erviront de fondement
f
aux futures
s analyses qualitativess et quantittatives des
actes radicaux exécutés au Canada.
C
Les
s constatations qui se dégagent d
de cette
recherch
he font ress
sortir la néc
cessité de mener
m
d’auttres étudess sur d’autre
es liens, à
l’aide de
e données socioécono
s
omiques rég
gionales, pa
ar exemple, d’examine
er l’évolutio
on de
11th Janu
uary 2012
–viii –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
certains mouvemen
nts de radic
calisation ou de compa
arer la situa
ation dans des États a
aux
contexte
es socioéco
onomiques spécifiques
s ou sembla
ables à celu
ui du Canada. Il est à
espérer que les inittiatives futu
ures continu
ueront de p
prendre app
pui sur la co
ollecte et
l’analyse
e de données.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–ix –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Th
his page inttentionally lleft blank.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–x –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INT
TRODUCTIION ..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Overview
O
.............................................................................................................. 1
.......................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Background
B
1.3 Objectives
O
............................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Scope
S
of Do
ocument .............................................................................................. 3
2
RA
ADICALIZA
ATION IN TH
HE NEW ECONOMIC
C CLIMATE
E ...................................... 5
3 EX
XTREME VIOLENCE AND
A
TERR
RORISM DA
ATA ................................................. 8
3.1 Socio-econo
S
omic Databases .................................................................................. 9
3.2 Terrorism
T
an
nd Political Violence Databases
D
. ...................................................... 10
3.2.1 Global Terrrorism Data
abase (GTD
D) ................................................................... 10
3.2.2 Worldwide
e Incidents Tracking
T
Sy
ystem (WIT
TS) ................................................. 11
3.2.3 Terrorism in Canada, 1960 – 1989 .................................................................. 11
3.2.4 Equipe de Recherche
e et de Terrrorisme et L
L’Antiterroriisme (ERTA
A) ................ 12
3.3 Description
D
of Data Inc
cluded in the
e Database
es ................................................... 12
3.4 Socio-econo
S
omic Data ......................................................................................... 12
3.4.1.1
Source
e of Socio-E
Economic Variables
V
... ...................................................... 16
3.4.1.2
Compo
osite Indexe
es of Econo
omic Data.. ...................................................... 17
3.4.1.3
Method
dological an
nd Collectio
on Issues .. ...................................................... 17
3.5 Radical,
R
Violent Extrem
me and Terrrorism Data
a..................................................... 18
3.5.1 Radicaliza
ation, Violen
nt Extremism
m and Terrrorism Rela
ated to Cana
ada: An
Incidents Database
D
.......................................................................................... 18
3.5.1.1
Data Coding
C
of Ra
adical, Viole
ent Extrem e and Terro
orist Eventss .................. 19
3.6 Comprehens
C
sive Databa
ase of Cana
adian Socio
o-Economicc and Radiccal, Violentt
Extreme,
E
an
nd Terrorist Data ............................................................................... 28
4 AN
NALYSIS AND RESUL
LTS.................................................................................. 30
4.1 Analyses
A
Pe
erformed ........................................................................................... 30
4.2 Patterns
P
of Radicalizat
R
ion, Violentt Extremism
m and Terro
orism relate
ed to Canad
da
1960-2007 .......................................................................................................... 30
4.2.1 General ............................................................................................................ 31
4.2.2 Incident tre
end ................................................................................................... 33
4.2.3 Targets an
nd Perpetra
ators of Rad
dical, Violen
nt Extreme and Terrorrist Events .... 35
4.2.4 Casualties
s of incidentts ..................................................................................... 39
4.2.5 Weapons involved in incidents ......................................................................... 40
4.2.6 Potential motive
m
............................................................................................... 41
4.2.7 Unproven Incidents .......................................................................................... 44
4.2.8 Compariso
on of Incide
ent and Soc
cio-Econom
mic Trends ...................................... 45
4.3 Preliminary
P
Quantitative Data Ana
alysis ............................................................... 48
11th Janu
uary 2012
–xi –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
4.4
4.5
4.6
Correlationa
C
al Analyses ........................................................................................ 54
Time
T
Series Analysis .......................................................................................... 55
Analysis ........................................................................................... 56
Regression
R
5
DIS
SCUSSION
N AND REC
COMMENDATIONS FO
OR FUTUR
RE WORK .................... 58
6
RE
EFERENCE
ES ...................................................................................................... 61
7
LIS
ST OF ABB
BREVIATIO
ONS .................................................................................. 62
APPEND
DIX A
11th Janu
uary 2012
DA
ATABASES FOR ECO
ONOMIC, S
SOCIO-PO
OLITICAL A
AND
RA
ADICAL/TE
ERRORIST
T DATA ......................................................... A-1
–xii –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4-1
4 Percentage of All Incidents th
hat Occurre
ed within ea
ach Provincce ................. 31
Figure 4-2
4 Percentage of Inciident Type that Occurrred of the T
Total Numb
ber of Incide
ents
............................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 4-3
4 Frequency of Incid
dents Occurring betwe
een 1960 - 2
2007 ............................. 33
Figure 4-4
4 Type off Incidents Occurring
O
from
f
1960 tto 2007 .......................................... 34
Figure 4-5
4 Percentage of Inciidents Repo
orted by ea
ach Source from 1960 to 2007 ....... 35
Figure 4-6
4 Frequency of Type
e of Inciden
nt Target Se
elected .......................................... 36
Figure 4-7
4 Perpetra
ators Comm
mitting or Suspected o
of Committin
ng Incidents each Yea
ar. 38
Figure 4-8
4 Numberr of Injuries and Fatalitties Within a
and Outsid
de Canada b
between 19
960
and
d 2007 ................................................................................................................ 39
Figure 4-9
4 Nationalist/Separattist Motivate
ed Incidentts ................................................... 42
Figure 4-10
4
Religio
ously-Motiva
ated Incidents.................................................................. 43
Figure 4-11
4
Inciden
nts Motivate
ed by politic
cal/Anti-Go
overnment Ideas or Be
eliefs ............. 44
Figure 4-12
4
Inciden
nts that hav
ve not been
n Establishe
ed as True by Evidencce or
Dem
monstration
n ........................................................................................................ 45
Figure 4-13:
4
Radica
al Events versus
v
Econ
nomic Indexx (with trendlines) .......................... 46
Figure 4-14:
4
Radica
al Events versus
v
Unem
mployment Rate ............................................. 46
Figure 4-15:
4
Radica
al Events versus
v
Inflattion Rate .. ...................................................... 47
Figure 4-16:
4
Radica
al Events versus
v
Per Capita
C
Economic Grow
wth ............................... 47
Figure 4-17:
4
Radica
al Events versus
v
Econ
nomic Grow
wth ................................................. 48
Figure 4-18
4
Evolutiion of Incom
me Per Cap
pita from 19
960 to 2007
7 .................................... 50
Figure 4-19
4
Evolutiion of Urbanization Ra
ate from 196
60 to 2007 ..................................... 50
Figure 4-20
4
Evolutiion of Trade
e Openness from 1960 to 2007....................................... 51
Figure 4-21
4
Evolutiion of Infant Mortality Rate
R
from 1
1960 to 200
07 ................................. 51
Figure 4-22
4
Evolutiion of Pove
erty Rate fro
om 1960 to 2007............................................. 52
Figure 4-23
4
Evolutiion of Unem
mployment Rate from 1960 to 200
07 ................................. 52
Figure 4-24
4
Evolutiion of Inflation Rate fro
om 1960 to
o 2007 ............................................ 53
11th Janu
uary 2012
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© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
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nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3--1 Search Keywords ........................................................................................... 8
Table 3--2 Social and Econom
mic Variable
es included in the Analysis ............................. 13
Table 3--3: Sources
s of Socio-e
economic Data
D
........... ...................................................... 16
Table 4--1 Percenta
age of Incid
dent Type Accounted
A
ffor by Each
h Province..................... 32
Table 4--2 Targets of
o the Six Different
D
Types of Radical, Violen
nt Extreme a
and Terrorist
Eve
ents .................................................................................................................... 37
Table 4--3 Perpetrators Comm
mitting or Su
uspected off Committin
ng a Type of Incident ..... 38
Table 4--4 Casualtie
es of Racialism, Violen
nt Extremissm and Terrrorism by T
Type of Incid
dent
............................................................................................................................... 39
W
Inv
volved in In
ncidents .... ...................................................... 40
Table 4--5 Type of Weapon
Table 4--6 Potentiall Motive of Incidents ......................................................................... 41
Table 4--7 Summarry Statistics
s (all years)) ...................................................................... 54
Table 4--8: Correlattions Betwe
een Socio-E
Economic a
and Radicallization Varriables .......... 55
Table 4--9: Multiple Regression
n of Selecte
ed Socio-E conomic Va
ariables to Predict Tottal
Num
mbers of Ra
adical Even
nts .................................................................................... 57
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CAE Pro
ofessional Services
S
wo
ould like to acknowled
dge Dr. Lian
nne McLella
an, Chelsea
a
Ferriday
y and Dr. Yiiagadeseen
n Samy and
d for their co
ontribution to this repo
ort. Their
advice and
a effort ellevated the
e final resultt without a sshadow of a doubt.
11th Janu
uary 2012
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
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anada
Th
his page inttentionally lleft blank.
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Historical Da
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anada
1
1.1
INT
TRODUC
CTION
Overview
O
The inte
ention of this
s report is to
t documen
nt the resultts of the wo
ork conductted by CAE
E
Professiional Servic
ces (Canad
da) Inc. (CA
AE PS) unde
er the contrract for Deffence Rese
earch
and Dev
velopment Canada
C
(DR
RDC) – Torronto entitle
ed, “Historiccal data revview of radiical
groups and
a econom
mic indicato
ors in North America”. The intent of this initia
ative was to
o
use pre--existing ele
ectronic dattabases of radical eve
ents and socio-econom
mic data forr
Canada in pursuit of
o a wide-ra
anging revie
ew of data tto investiga
ate the link between so
ocioeconomic factors, and
a radicaliization and violent exttremism.
Specifically, this report describ
bes the com
mpilation an
nd merging
g of the follo
owing two
compreh
hensive dattasets inclu
uding descriptions of th
he variabless used and the rationa
ale
for their inclusion: (1)
( dataset of radical, violent
v
extrremism and
d terrorist evvents relate
ed to
o-economicc and politiccal factors
Canada from 1960 to 2007; and (2) dataset of socio
between
n 1910 and 2010. The manner in which the rradicalizatio
on databasse (including
g
data com
mpilation an
nd coding) was
w compiled and a q
quantitative analysis exxamining how
socio-ec
conomic ind
dicators co--vary with in
ndicators off radicalizattion and vio
olent extrem
mism
in Canad
da are pres
sented in th
he report. Recommend
R
dations for ffuture explo
oratory worrk
based on the prelim
minary analyses are allso provided
d.
1.2
Backgrou
B
nd
In light of
o the perce
eived rise in
n extremism
m of cultural, political, ssocial and rreligious
moveme
ents, radica
alization has
s become a topic of grreat interesst to policy m
makers and
d
security agencies in
n recent ye
ears. Some have linked
d radicaliza
ation to eco
onomic distrress,
and hav
ve postulate
ed that the recent
r
downturn in the
e global eco
onomy mayy have led, and
may yet lead, to an
n increase in the levels
s of radicalization and violent extrremism. At the
request of the Assistant Deputy Minister (Science a
and Techno
ology), the A
Adversarial
Intent Se
ection (AIS) at DRDC Toronto un
ndertook a rresearch prroject to invvestigate th
he
implicatiions of an economic
e
downturn for Canada’ss security an
nd social sttability. The
e
project plan
p
for this
s endeavour, entitled “Radicalizattion in the N
National Ecconomic
Climate””, was created in June
e 2009.
To gathe
er informatiion on the topic
t
area, an
a analysiss of open-so
ource datab
bases was
performe
ed to identify potentiall socio-econ
nomic indiccators that cco-vary with
h indicatorss of
radicaliz
zation and violent
v
extre
emism in Canada
C
ove r the past 1
100 years. T
The purposse of
gatherin
ng these data is to gen
nerate a high-level maccro picture of relationsships amon
ng
these indicators ratther than to
o explain po
otential rela
ationships. IInformation
n gleaned frrom
this analysis will be
e used to un
nderstand and
a explain
n relationships between socioeconomic factors and
a radicaliz
zation and violent extrremism in C
Canada.
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Historical Da
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It is expe
ected that the
t events related to te
errorism an
nd radicaliza
ation comp
piled in the
radical, extreme vio
olent and te
errorism database will prove extre
emely helpfful for futurre
work in terms
t
of the
e qualitative
e informatio
on that theyy contain an
nd/or that ccan be derivved
from the
em, namely where the events took place, the
e actors invvolved, their motivation
ns
and obje
ectives, and
d so on. No
on-parametrric analysess of these ttypes of cattegorical da
ata
could yie
eld a lot of important in
nsights in addition
a
to tthe quantita
ative analyssis attempte
ed
here. Trends obserrved and hy
ypotheses generated
g
iin this workk may be pu
ursued in fu
uture
follow-on
n studies. The
T datasett assembled for this prroject can ttherefore be
e very usefful
for future
e work concerned with
h the cause
es of radicalization and
d extreme e
events in th
he
Canadia
an context.
1.3
Objectives
O
s
The statted objectiv
ves of this work
w
were as
a follows:
1. Cond
duct a broad search fo
or open-sou
urce Canad
dian or Nortth American
n historical data
from the past 10
00 years pe
ertaining to:
x
Social
S
variab
bles (e.g., public
p
opinion, infant m
mortality);
x
Economic
E
va
ariables (e.g., Gross Domestic
D
Product (GD
DP) per capita, rate of
unemployme
ent); and
x
Events
E
related to radica
alization, violent extre mism and tterrorism.
2. Merg
ge the selec
cted variablles into a single datab
base:
x
Compile
C
a database of socio-econ
nomic varia
ables;
x
Compile
C
a database of radicalization, violent extremism
m, terrorist e
events; and
x
Merge
M
selec
cted variables from the
e two datab
bases into a single database using a
time-series approach.
a
3. Cond
duct quantittative data analyses to
o gain a bro
oad understanding of how social and
econ
nomic variab
bles have co-varied
c
with
w indicato
ors of radica
alization across time.
The resu
ults of this study
s
will be useful to policy makkers who wiill appreciatte an
understa
anding of how socio-economic fa
actors may h
have influenced violen
nt extremism
m in
the pastt. Lessons can
c be learrned from how econom
mic distresss in the pastt has affectted,
or co-va
aried with, in
ncidence off radical vio
olence to he
elp mitigate
e its occurre
ence in the
future.
11th Janu
uary 2012
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een as represe
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
1.4
Scope
S
of Documen
nt
This rep
port docume
ents the con
nstruction of
o the datab
base of radical events and socio-economic data, the
e subsequent data ana
alysis, and rrecommend
dations for future workk, in
the follow
wing sectio
ons:
x
Radicalization in
n the new economic
e
climate,
c
x
Existting sources of socio-e
economic and
a radicalizzation data
a,
x
Desc
cription of variables
v
inc
cluded in th
he database
es,
x
Analy
yses and re
esults, and
x
Discu
ussion and recommen
ndations forr future worrk.
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e, représentée par le ministre
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e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
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entionally left blank.
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
2
RA
ADICALIZ
ZATION IN
N THE NE
EW ECON
NOMIC CLIMATE
The influ
uence of so
ocial and ec
conomic fac
ctors on hum
man behavviour is imm
mensely
complex
x. A discove
ery worksho
op, held by DRDC Torronto in Deccember 200
09, explore
ed
and disc
cussed the implications of an eco
onomic dow
wnturn on th
he potential for
radicaliz
zation within
n Canada. The
T worksh
hop brough
ht together a wide varie
ety of
academics and pra
actitioners frrom relevan
nt fields and
d provided breadth an
nd depth of
perspec
ctives to the
e issue. It was
w concluded that whiile research
h does not support the
e
existenc
ce of a direc
ct relationsh
hip between the econo
omy and ra
adicalization
n, the
relations
ship betwee
en economic condition
ns and viole
ent extremissm is a com
mplicated one
with man
ny mitigatin
ng factors, whereby
w
the
e former may still servve as a cata
alyst for the
e
latter (G
Gauthier, 2010). Studie
es evaluatin
ng the impa ct of the ecconomy on the inciden
nce
of terrorism have demonstrate
ed similar re
esults. For example, a systematicc study
evaluatin
ng how eco
onomic circumstances
s influence tterrorism byy Blomberg
g, Hess and
d
Weeapa
ana (2002) found
f
that for
f democra
atic, high in
ncome coun
ntries, econ
nomic
contracttions (i.e., re
ecession) can
c serve as
a an aggra
avating facto
or for increa
ased
probabilities of terro
orist activitiies. Meanw
while, a stud
dy that evalluated the h
hypothesis that
poverty, inequality and poor economic
e
de
evelopmentt are root ccauses of te
errorist activvity
found no
o significant relationsh
hip between
n economicc developme
ent and terrrorism in da
ata
aggrega
ated from 96
6 countries (Piazza, 20
006). Rathe
er, they fou
und that varriables such
h as
population, ethno-rreligious div
versity, incrreased state
e repressio
on and struccture of parrty
politics were
w
significant predic
ctors of terro
orism.
The lack
k of a conclusive findin
ng regarding the relatio
onship betw
ween econo
omic factorrs
and radiicalization clearly
c
show
ws there is a need for further rese
earch in this area. One
e
particula
ar issue tha
at needs to be conside
ered when e
embarking o
on such ressearch is w
what
data sho
ould be use
ed to indicatte radicaliza
ation. Indee
ed, there iss considerab
ble debate
about th
he proper de
efinition of radicalizatio
on. Mandell (2009) hass proposed
d a working
definition
n of radicalization as “an
“ increase
e in and/or reinforcing
g of extremism in the
thinking, sentimentts, and/or behavior of individuals
i
and/or grou
ups of indivviduals”. Bu
ut
Mandel’s definition does not operationall
o
y define wh
hat might in
ndicate radicalization o
or
violent extremism.
e
Thus, this research
r
must
m
conside
er the workk of others in selecting
events that indicate
e extreme or
o radical ag
gendas, an
nd build upo
on the criterria they havve
used.
In addition to radica
al event-related data, a spectrum
m of socio-e
economic in
ndicators
needed to be comp
piled. Econ
nomic data were more readily ava
ailable, sincce it is in hig
gh
demand
d and is a well-establis
w
shed field off study. The
e most sign
nificant challlenge involved
identifyin
ng the most appropriate data sou
urces and o
outlining the
eir relative ssignificance
e as
indicatorrs of econo
omic climate
e. Data on social
s
facto
ors proved lless easy to
o obtain tha
an
economic data, butt easier to obtain
o
than data aboutt radicalizattion, again because off the
maturity
y of the field
d of study. Information gleaned fro
om this ana
alysis will be used to
11th Janu
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een as represe
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
understa
and how so
ocio-econom
mic factors in the curre
ent econom
mic climate m
might influe
ence
processes and outc
comes of ra
adicalization within Ca
anada.
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uary 2012
–6 –
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M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
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entionally left blank.
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een as represe
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la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
3
EX
XTREME VIOLENC
V
CE AND TERRORI
T
SM DATA
A
A list of socio-econ
nomic and te
errorism da
atabases we
ere provide
ed by DRDC
C Toronto a
and
used as a starting point
p
for a systematic
s
search for open-sourcce data to in
nclude in th
he
analysis
s. The searc
ch was specifically aim
med at identifying orga
anized data collection
projects related to radicalizatio
r
on and viole
ent extremiism in Cana
ada as welll as socialpolitical and economic conditio
ons. A com
mprehensive
e search off the interne
et for opend
was
w initiated. Of partic
cular interesst were dattabases tha
at included d
data
source databases
on the existence
e
off Canadian radical gro
oups and/orr radical or tterrorist behaviour ove
er
the pastt 100 years, in addition
n to quantita
ative Canad
dian social,, political an
nd/or econo
omic
data. Th
he following
g key words
s, both alone and in co
ombination, were used
d in the search
for electtronic sourc
ces:
Table 3-1 Search Key
ywords
Searc
ch Keyword
ds
terro
orism
radiccalization
Can
nada
econ
nomic
pop
pulation
censsus data
elec
ctions study
terro
orist groups
radiical groups
politiical mood
pub
blic opinion polls
p
data
data
abase
open
n-source
Also included were
e several op
pen-source databasess recommen
nded by Subject Matte
er
unds in inte
elligence an
nalysis and economicss.
Experts (SMEs) witth backgrou
Databas
ses were included if they fit the fo
ollowing critteria:
x
conta
ained open-source data (i.e., acc
cessible to tthe public) on the subjject of socia
al
and economic
e
data
d
and da
ata and info
ormation rellated to the
e presence of radical
groups and/or the incidenc
ce of radica
al/terrorist b
behaviour;
x
the data
d
were quantitative
q
or, at a min
nimum, cate
egorical;
x
the data
d
include
ed Canadian-specific content;
c
x
the data
d
were in
n a time-serries format;; and
x
the data
d
were assessed
a
as
s credible.
11th Janu
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e de la Défense
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Historical Da
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Databas
ses could only be asse
essed as crredible if the
e project we
ebsite conttained sufficcient
informattion concern
ning the me
ethod of da
ata collectio
on and the e
expertise off the
investiga
ators. Other factors we
ere also tak
ken into con
nsideration such as th
he motivatio
on of
the proje
ect and the reputation of the orga
anization. D
Databases tthat did not meet all off the
listed inc
clusion crite
eria but stilll contained information
n of interesst were occa
asionally
included
d and subse
equently rev
viewed by the
t researcch team (DR
RDC Toron
nto and CAE
E
PS), unttil the decision was ma
ade either to include o
or discard th
he database
e. The resu
ults
of this se
earch were
e kept in an Excel data
abase provid
ded in Appendix A.
3.1
Socio-eco
S
onomic Databases
D
s
A system
matic searc
ch of open-s
source data
abases iden
ntified the fo
following so
ocio-econom
mic
and socio-political databases
d
which were
e used to po
opulate the
e economic and socio-political database:
x
Cana
adian Socio
o-Economic
c Informatio
on Managem
ment Syste
em (CANSIM
M): Statisticcs
Cana
ada's key socio-econo
omic databa
ase which p
provides a large range
e of data
available in Can
nada (e.g., immigration
n, ethnic co
omposition, average earnings).
x
World Income Inequality Database
D
(W
WIID): Produced by the
e World Insstitute for
Deve
elopment Economics Research
R
(W
WIDER), W
WIID collectss and store
es information
on in
ncome inequality for de
eveloped, developing,
d
and transittioning countries.
x
Statistics on Wo
orld Popula
ation, GDP and
a Per Ca
apita GDP, 1-2008 AD
D: Created b
by
Angu
us Maddiso
on, a British economistt. This database is excceptionally
comp
prehensive, containing
g world pop
pulation and
d GDP data
a dating bacck to year 1
1.
x
World Developm
ment Indica
ators Online
e (WDI): Pu
ublished by the World Bank Group is
a com
mprehensiv
ve database
e on develo
opment data
g more than
n 800
a, covering
indic
cators, 209 economies
s, and 18 re
egional and income gro
oups. The e
extensive
collection of dev
velopment data includes social, e
economic, ffinancial, na
atural
urces, and environmental indicators for morre than fortyy years, 1960 to 2007,
resou
wherre data are available.
x
Glob
bal Development Finan
nce Online (GDF): Pub
blished by tthe World B
Bank Group
p,
the GDF
G
provides direct ac
ccess to mo
ore than 20
00 debt and
d financial fllows indicators
(indic
cations of whether
w
a security
s
is, or
o is in dang
ger of, bein
ng overboug
ght or overssold)
for th
he 128 coun
ntries that report
r
public and publiicly-guaranteed debt to the World
d
Bank
k Debtor Re
eporting Sy
ystem. Thes
se data run from 1970 to 2008 wh
here available.
x
The Canadian Opinion
O
Research Archive (CORA
A): Founde
ed in 1992, CORA
conta
ains hundre
eds of surve
eys includin
ng thousand
ds of discre
ete items co
ollected by
majo
or commerc
cial Canadia
an firms datting back to
o the 1970ss. This data
abase was u
used
11th Janu
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to ac
ccess three public opin
nion polls: Canadian
C
E
Elections Sttudy (CES), Canadian
Gallo
op Poll and the Decima Quarterly
y.
x
Statistics Canad
da Census:: The Statis
stics Canad
da Census ttakes place
e every five
years
s and provides various
s data used
d in plannin
ng and deve
elopment (e
e.g., positio
oning
of so
ocial service
e resources
s).
x
Electtions Canad
da: History of election results in ffederal elecctoral riding
gs since 186
67
and Voter
V
Turno
out at Fede
eral Election
ns and Refe
erendums, 1867-2008
8: Database
e
conta
aining results of past elections
e
go
oing back to
o 1867.
3.2
Terrorism
T
m and Poliitical Violence Dattabases
In spite of the incre
eased intere
est in terrorrism, extrem
mism and ra
adicalism, vvery few
studies have
h
examined terrorism and rad
dicalization in a Canad
dian contexxt. In an effo
ort to
provide a comprehensive cove
erage of Ca
anadian-rellated radica
al and terro
orist activitie
es
both with
hin and outtside Canad
da, two glob
bal terrorism
m database
es and two Canadianspecific works were
e used as the primary sources off data for ra
adicalization
n, violent
extremis
sm and terrrorism relate
ed to Cana
ada. Details of the data
abases and
d Canadian-specific works are provided in the following sectionss.
All of the
e data rega
arding terrorrism and po
olitical viole
ence have b
been drawn
n from open
n
sources, available to the gene
eral public. This metho
od facilitatess the sharin
ng of all sou
urce
data and
d analysis across
a
the widest
w
poss
sible audien
nce, fostering greater dialogue and
discussion among practitionerrs in this fie
eld. Howeve
er, there are
e, by necesssity, some
F instance
e, there is ssparse data
a related to
areas off data absent from the analysis. For
, finances, and averag
group membership
m
ge incomess or employyment of me
embers. The
absence
e of such da
ata limits th
he ability to make some
e assessments regard
ding the cau
usal
relations
ships betwe
een econom
mic climate and radica l group membership.
3.2.1
Global Terrorism Da
atabase (G
GTD)
D is an ope
en-source database
d
prresenting in
nformation o
on terrorist events aro
ound
The GTD
the world since 197
70 (currently updated through
t
200
07). The da
atabase is m
maintained by
onal Conso
ortium for th
he Study of Terrorism and Respo
onses to Te
errorism
the Natio
(START
T), based att the Univerrsity of Mary
yland, Colle
ege Park. Itt includes p
political, as well
as religio
ous, economic, and so
ocial acts of
o terrorism and instancces of dom
mestic and
international terrorism1. For ea
ach GTD in
ncident, info
ormation is available o
on the date and
location of the incid
dent, the we
eapons use
ed and natu
ure of the ta
arget, the number of
casualtie
es and, whe
en identifiable, the gro
oup or indivvidual respo
onsible.
1
Domestic terrorism
t
is defin
ned as terrorism
m that is perpetra
ated within the b
boundaries of a given nation byy nationals from that
nation.
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anada
The GTD
D is a comp
pilation of th
hree data collection
c
effforts from 1
1970 to the
e present
(LaFree, Dugan, Fo
ogg, & Scott, 2006). From
F
1970 tto 1997 the
e data were collected
primarily
y from incid
dents record
ded by usin
ng a broad-b
based defin
nition of terrrorism: “the
e
threaten
ned or actua
al use of ille
egal force and
a violence
e to attain a political, e
economic,
religious
s or social goal
g
through fear, coerrcion or intimidation”. T
The data frrom 1998
through 2007 conta
ain informattion on morre recent evvents that w
were collectted in real-ttime
esearchers (i.e., as an
n event occurred the re
esearchers added details to the
by the re
database). New criteria for da
ata collection were esta
ablished to ensure the
e adherence
e to
a broad definition of
o terrorism and to include more vvariables fo
or each event. Finally, in
2008, a renewed efffort of colle
ecting data on terroristt attacks be
egan which
h adhered to
o the
new crite
eria and bre
eadth of co
ollection for events occcurring in 20
008 and be
eyond. As a
consequ
uence of the
e difference
es in data collection
c
m
methods, La
afree et al. ((2006) warn
ns
that the differences
s in the num
mber of atta
acks before and after 1
1997 may b
be partially
explaine
ed by the differences in
n the metho
ods used fo
or the three
e data collecctions. For
further details
d
on th
he criteria and
a data co
ollection me
ethodologiess used for tthe GTD, re
efer
to Lafree
e et al’s (20
006) methodology doc
cument.
3.2.2
Worldwide
e Incidents
s Tracking
g System (W
WITS)
The WIT
TS is the US
S National Counterterrorism Cen
nter's (NCTC
C) database of terrorisst
events covering
c
inc
cidents worrldwide from
m 2004 until present. A
According to
o the NCTC
C,
the data
a provided in
n WITS con
nsist of incidents in wh
hich subnattional or cla
andestine
groups or
o individua
als deliberattely or reck
klessly attaccked civilian
ns or nonco
ombatants
(includin
ng military personnel
p
and
a assets outside
o
wa r zones and
d similar un
nsafe
locations
s). Accordin
ng to the WITS
W
metho
odology, “terrorists musst have initiated and
executed the attack
k for it to be
e included in the datab
base; failed
d or foiled a
attacks, as w
well
n the databa
ase. Sponta
aneous hatte crimes w
without inten
nt to
as hoaxes, are not included in
m
casualties are ex
xcluded . . . ”. Genocid
dal events a
are also excluded. Forr
cause mass
further details
d
on th
he criteria of
o the WITS
S database, refer to the
e methodology page o
on
the WITS site (http://wits-class
sic.nctc.gov
v/Methodolo
ogy.doc).
3.2.3
Terrorism
m in Canada
a, 1960 – 1989
Terrorism
m in Canad
da 1960 – 1989
1
(Kellettt, Beanland
ds, Deacon
n, Jeffrey, & Lapalme,
1991) is a report de
etailing the results of a study on tterrorism in
n and affectting Canada
a.
The resu
ult of this efffort is a mo
onumental reference o
on terrorism
m and politiccal violence
e up
to 1989, itself base
ed in part on
n work by Ross
R
(1988)). It include
es a chronology of
domestic and intern
national terrrorist eventts affecting Canada. K
Kellett defin
nes internattional
terrorism
m as “terrorist events or
o activities directed to
oward the p
prosecution of conflictss
outside Canada” an
nd “involves
s the targetting of interrnationally p
protected p
persons,
diplomattic missions
s, or properrty owned by
b or assocciated with a foreign go
overnment or
business
s” (p. 29). Domestic
D
te
errorism “re
efers to terro
orist eventss or activitie
es aimed
ultimately at altering the Cana
adian sociall or politicall system, and in which
h Canadians,
their perrsonal or bu
usiness pro
operty, or th
he property of some level of gove
ernment, are
e
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© Sa majesté
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
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targeted
d” (p. 29). The
T report also
a
include
es a chrono logy of terro
orism supp
port activitie
es,
comprised of action
ns in suppo
ort of the co
ommission o
of terrorist a
acts in Can
nada (e.g., ttheft
of explosives used in terrorist bombing, fundraising
f
activities ssuch as robbery and
extortion
ot complete
n or through
h the use off propaganda). Eventss that did no
ely or clearly
satisfy th
he inclusion
n requireme
ents were placed
p
in an
n Excluded Events chrronology. A
All
events in
n Kellett et al. (1991) were
w
includ
ded in the ra
adical, viole
ent extreme
e and terrorrist
database. For furth
her details on
o the criterria and data
a collection
n methodolo
ogies, referr to
the Secttion III, Metthodology in
n Kellett et al. (1991).
3.2.4
Equipe de
e Recherch
he et de Te
errorisme e
et L’Antiterrrorisme (E
ERTA)
Consolid
dating a number of existing sourc
ces, the ER
RTA (Langlo
ois-Lemanss & Brodeurr,
2005) de
eveloped a qualitative database composed
c
of the large
e number o
of incidents that
took place in Canada between
n 1973 and 2007. One
e major sou
urce was Ke
ellett et al.
(1991) (see section
n 3.2.3 abov
ve). Using Kellett’s da
atabase as a starting p
point, a
chronolo
ogy through
h the 1990s
s and 2000s
s was comp
pleted, in pa
art with the
e help of oth
hers
(i.e., Mic
ckolus, 1980, 1993; Mickolus, Sa
andler, & Mu
urdock, 198
89; Mickolu
us & Simmo
ons,
1997; Va
areilles, 2001). Primarry sources were
w
also u
used which include bu
ut are not
limited to
o newspaper articles, public repo
orts and inte
ernet accou
unts. Lango
ois-Lemanss and
Brodeurr added much contextu
ual informattion on the incidents. T
They used a “narrative
e”
approac
ch (i.e., pros
se descriptiions of events) to theirr database rather than
n an inciden
ntbased classification
n “in which incidents are
a considered togethe
er rather tha
an being
extracted as discre
ete events” (p. 123).
An extre
emely wide interpretatiion of the phrase
p
“terro
orism in Ca
anada” wass adopted fo
or
this project. The typ
pes of incid
dents in the database iinclude hoa
axes, threatts, individua
al
attacks, support ac
ctivities (e.g
g., fundraising), failed o
or foiled plo
ots, and anyy situation
d to have a Canadian link (e.g., perpetrated
p
d by a Cana
adian or aga
ainst a
regarded
Canadia
an, or some
ehow related to Canad
da or Canad
dian interessts). As men
ntioned by
others, “any
“
link to Canada is interesting, even if it is only that an airplane
e hijacked in
the USA
A had to refuel in Gand
der on its way
w to a third
rd country” (Langois-Le
emans &
Brodeurr, 2005, p. 123).
1
3.3
Descriptio
D
on of Data Include
ed in the Database
es
This sec
ction describes the datta on socio--economic factors and
d radical an
nd violent
extremis
st data that were chosen for inclu
usion in the databasess for this pro
oject. The d
data
compiled
d for this prroject are provided
p
in an
a annex to
o this reporrt.
3.4
Socio-eco
S
onomic Data
D
and econom
This sec
ction contains a brief description
d
of
o the differrent social a
mic factors and
the ratio
onale for inc
cluding thes
se variables
s in the ana
alysis (see T
Table 3-2).
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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anada
Table 3--2 Social and Econom
mic Variable
es included in the Analysis
Va
ariables
Description
Ration
nale to inclu
ude in analy
ysis
Trade Openness
The degree
e to which countries or
economies
s permit or have trade
(exports an
nd imports) with
w other
countries or
o economies relative to the
eir
national inc
comes. It is measured
m
as tthe
sum of exp
ports and imports of goodss
and service
es as a share
e of gross
domestic product.
p
Open ecconomies gen
nerate greaterr
market o
opportunities. At the same time
they also
o face greater competition from
businessses based in other countrie
es.
The degree of openne
ess also indiccates
nt to which a country is
the exten
integrate
ed in the world
d trading systtem.
Increase
es in the value
e indicate gre
eater
rates of ttrade openne
ess. There is a
fairly larg
ge literature that has exam
mined
the impa
act of openness on growth and
developm
ment, with mo
ost of the pap
pers
indicating a positive rrelationship (ssee
2002).
Rajan, 2
Unemplo
oyment rate
The percen
ntage of those
e in the labou
ur
force who are
a unemploy
yed.
Indicatio
on of a countryy’s economicc
prosperitty. The loss o
of a job is kno
own to
have a n
negative impa
act on the stab
bility
of familie
es, and individ
duals' health and
well-bein
ng (see Rajan
n, 2002).
Inequalitty (Gini
coefficient)
The Gini co
oefficient mea
asures the
extent to which
w
the distrribution of
income in an
a economy deviates
d
from
ma
perfectly eq
qual distributiion, with zero
o
representin
ng perfect equ
uality and one
e
representin
ng perfect ine
equality.
Extreme
e disparity of income amon
ng the
poorest, the middle class, and the
predict radicallization.
richest p
Poverty rate (%)
The percen
ntage of the population
p
livi ng Indicatio
on of a countryy’s economicc
below the poverty
p
line, where
w
the lattter prosperitty.
indicates th
he minimum level of incom
me
required to
o afford basic needs.
Poverty Gap
This is a measure
m
of the
e depth of
poverty in an
a economy and
a refers to
the total am
mount of mon
ney that shoulld
be given to
o households to bring them
m
up to the le
evel of the pov
verty line.
e of the poverrty gap is an
The size
indicatio
on of the econ
nomic prosperrity of
er gap indicatting
a countryy, with a large
lower pro
osperity.
Poverty Intensity
It is calcula
ated by multip
plying the
poverty gap by the pove
erty rate. It is a
more sensitive indication of poverty
p
overty rate an
nd poverty gap
than the po
because it takes into ac
ccount any
on of income among the
redistributio
poor.
This mea
asure will be used in the
analysis as it is an ind
dicator of a
prosperity.
country’ss economic p
Inflation rate
The annua
al rate of chan
nge or the yea
ar- Inflation is interpreted
d in terms of
on-year change of the Consumer
C
Pri ce declining
g purchasing power of mon
ney
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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Va
ariables
“Real” in
nterest rate
(bank rate)
Description
Ration
nale to inclu
ude in analy
ysis
Index (CPI). That is, the
e change in th
he
xed basket off goods and
cost of a fix
services fo
or the average
e consumer.
and hence increased cost of living.
This refers to the nomin
nal interest ratte
or inflation and
d represents
adjusted fo
the real cost of borrowin
ng or lending.
If the “re
eal” interest ra
ate is high, it is
more expensive and ttherefore morre
g for
difficult tto afford loanss or financing
investme
ents (e.g.,,inte
erest rate on
mortgages).
Economic growth (%)) Measured as the rate off change in
GDP.
Economic growth (%)) is a widely u
used
e of the health
h of an econo
omy.
measure
Negative
e growth ratess represent a
shrinking
g of an econo
omy’s producttive
capacityy, and the term
m “recession” is
used to rrepresent two
o consecutive
e
quarters or more of negative GDP
growth.
Economic growth per
%)
capita (%
Measured as the rate off change from
m
ar in GDP perr capita
year to yea
Compare
ed to the prevvious measurre,
economiic growth per capita (%)
corrects for the numb
ber of people in the
mic growth (%),
country. Like econom
economiic growth per capita (%) is the
standard
d measure ussed to gauge tthe
economiic performancce of a countrry
over time
e.
GDP perr Capita
An approxiimation of the
e value of goo
ods Indicatio
on of a countryy’s economicc
produced per
p person in the country,
prosperitty or level of d
development.
equal to the country's GDP
G
divided b
by
umber of peop
ple in the
the total nu
country.
Populatio
on (million)
The numbe
er of residents
s in Canada
regardless of legal statu
us or
—except for refugees
r
not
citizenship—
permanenttly settled in th
he country off
asylum.
uld expect a p
positive
One wou
relationsship between population an
nd
radical/vviolent extrem
mist activities ssince
a larger population sh
hould contain
numbers of evvery type of
greater n
citizen.
Populatio
on growth
rate (%)
Percentage
e change in population
p
ove
er
time.
As above, one would expect a possitive
relationsship between population grrowth
rate and proportion off radical/viole
ent
purely because of
extremisst incidents, p
the grea
ater numbers o
of people.
%Urban Population
Percentage
e of persons living
l
in areass
that have more
m
than 400
0 people per
square kilo
ometre and ha
as more than
1,000 peop
ple.
Changess in the % urb
ban population are
indicatio
ons of socio-economic chan
nge.
es typically me
ean economicc
Increase
improvem
ments. This vvalue is reciprrocal
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nal Defence, 2012
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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anada
Va
ariables
Description
Ration
nale to inclu
ude in analy
ysis
to rural p
population.
% Rural Population
Changess in the % rurral population are
Percentage
e of persons living
l
in rural
areas. All territory outsiide urban are
eas indicatio
ons of socio-economic chan
nge.
mean econom
mic
is considerred rural.
Decreasses typically m
improvem
ments. This vvalue is reciprrocal
to urban population.
Immigran
nts arrivals to
o Number off immigrants arriving
a
to
Canada
Canada.
The num
mber of immig
grant arrivals
indicatess the extent to
o which a cou
untry
is integra
ated with the rest of the wo
orld.
Ethnic co
omposition
(million)
Indicatio
on of diversity within the
populatio
on.
Population by ethnic origin – mostly
y self-reportin
ng (Statistics
acquired by
Canada Ce
ensus data). Origins
O
were
categorized
d according to
o Other
European, British, Frenc
ch, Asian,
Other.
Federal political party
y The federa
al political partty that wins th
he
most seats
s in the federa
al election for a
in powerr
particular year.
y
The polittical party in p
power can be
e an
indicatorr of public mo
ood.
Voter turrnout (%)
The percen
ntage of citize
ens who voted
d
in the federal election.
Voter turrnout could be
e an indicatio
on of
interest iin politics. Low
w turnout cou
uld
indicate apathy towarrd political isssues,
gh turnout cou
uld indicate
while hig
dissatisffaction with cu
urrent politica
al
state of a
affairs
Majority//minority
governm
ment
When the federal
f
party wins
w
more tha
an
half or less
s than half of the
t seats in th
he
House of Commons.
C
Providess an indication
n of the stabillity of
the federal governme
ent.
Political Disaffection
Composite Index
Political dis
saffection is described
d
as a
lack of inte
erest in politics
s, cynicism
towards an
nything political, and a sen se
of alienatio
on. The Wcalc
c algorithm2
was used to
t create a co
omposite inde
ex
of political disaffection by
b aggregatin g
m public opiniion polls and
results from
surveys.
Political disaffection ccan provide
indirect iinformation about the
percenta
age of the pop
pulation that h
has a
negative
e opinion of th
he governmen
nt’s
ability to support or sa
atisfy people’s
needs.
2
Wcalc is a program which
h implements an
n algorithm to bu
uild dimensiona
al “factor scores”” from dated item
ms with only parrtially
overlapping
g cases. The Wc
calc algorithm can be used to combine
c
survey items from diffe
erent surveys – a
about similar pu
ublic
opinion issu
ues – to construct a single indic
cator of self-repo
orted attitudes o
or beliefs.
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uary 2012
–15 –
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e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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anada
3.4.1.1
Source of
o Socio-Economic Variables
V
Table 3--3 outlines the
t sources
s for the socio-econom
mic data tha
at were included in the
e
analysis
s.
Table 3-3:
3
Sources
s of Socio-e
economic D
Data
Varia
able
Sou
urce
Trade Openness
Statis
stics Canada and World D
Development IIndicators onlline
(WDII)
Unemplo
oyment rate (%
%)
Statis
stics Canada
Inequalitty (Gini)
World
d Income Ine quality Datab
base (WIID), W
WIDER
Poverty rate (%)
Statis
stics Canada
Poverty gap
Statis
stics Canada
Poverty intensity
Calcu
ulated from S
Statistics Cana
ada data
Inflation rate (%)
Statis
stics Canada (calc); WDI 1
1976-
Real inte
erest rate (%)
WDI and GDF
Economic growth (%))
Calcu
ulated from S
Statistics on W
World Populattion, GDP and
d Per
Capitta GDP, 1-20
008 AD
Economic growth, perr capita (%)
Calcu
ulated from S
Statistics on W
World Populattion, GDP and
d Per
Capitta GDP, 1-20
008 AD
GDP perr capita (US$)
Statis
stics on World
d Population, GDP and Pe
er Capita GDP
P, 12008
8 AD
Populatio
on (million)
Statis
stics on World
d Population, GDP and Pe
er Capita GDP
P, 12008
8 AD
Populatio
on growth ratte (%)
Calcu
ulated from S
Statistics on W
World Populattion, GDP and
d Per
Capitta GDP, 1-20
008 AD
Urban po
opulation (% total)
t
WDI,, GDF and Ce
ensus data (frrom Statisticss Canada)
Rural po
opulation (% to
otal)
100-U
Urban popula
ation (% total))
Immigran
nt arrivals
Statis
stics Canada
Ethnic co
omposition (m
million) (Otherr
Statis
stics Canada
Europea
an, British, Fre
ench, Asian, Other)
O
Voter turrnout (%)
Electtions Canada
Federal political party
y in power
Electtions Canada
Majority//Minority party
y in power
Electtions Canada
11th Janu
uary 2012
–16 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
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M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
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anada
Political disaffection
3.4.1.2
Cana
adian Election
ns Study (CES
S), Canadian
n Gallop Poll a
and
the Decima
D
Quartterly (Wcalc5 algorithm).
Compos
site Indexes of Econo
omic Data
A numbe
er of econo
omic variablles were ag
ggregated tto create co
omposite indices as a
means of
o providing
g a statistica
al measure of general (positive a
and negative
e) economiic
performa
ance. This allows for the
t control of
o particula
ar aspects o
of the econo
omy and
reduces the numbe
er of indicattors for eas
se of interprretation.
The follo
owing two composite
c
indexes of economic
e
p
prosperity w
were created:
x
Mise
ery Index. A measure of
o economic
c well-being
g for a speccified econo
omy, by
comb
bining unem
mployment rate and th
he inflation rrate for a given period
d. An increa
asing
index
x means a worsening
w
economy. The
T main a
assumption in this inde
ex is that an
n
incre
easing unem
mployment rate and re
elatively hig
gh inflation h
have a neg
gative impacct on
econ
nomic growtth. In econo
omic terms, a rise in in
nflation cou
upled with h
high
unem
mployment leads to low
wer consum
mer expend
ditures and contributess to an
econ
nomic slow--down.
x
Econ
nomic Prosp
perity. Econ
nomic grow
wth per capiita and GDP per capita. An increase
in thiis index would indicate
e an increas
se in econo
omic prospe
erity.
3.4.1.3
Methodo
ological an
nd Collectio
on Issues
Several variables are
a available to measu
ure the econ
nomic and social aspe
ects of an
economy. Howeverr, finding lo
ong time-series data th
hat go backk a hundred years is
challeng
ging, even for
f a develo
oped countrry such as C
Canada. Ass a result, tthe major
challeng
ge encounte
ered in colle
ecting data was availa
ability, for m
most of the vvariables
except for
f basic da
ata such as GDP and population.
p
Great care
e was taken
n to ensure that
data were also com
mparable ov
ver time (e.g., by adjussting financcial indicato
ors to contro
ol for
inflation)) and that variables
v
us
sed came frrom trusted
d sources. T
The creation of compo
osite
indexes for the ove
erall econom
mic perform
mance of Ca
anada was done to ge
enerate morre
reliable indices of economic
e
prosperity.
p
The
T selectio
on of indica
ators for the
e composite
e
indices (see
(
Sectio
on 0) took in
nto accountt the availab
bility of data
a and ensu
ured that the
ere
was no significant
s
overlap
o
(i.e
e., high corrrelations) am
mong the cchosen varia
ables (see
Appendiix C for correlation ma
atrix). Since
e we did nott have any prior expecctations or d
data
regardin
ng which va
ariable is mo
ore importa
ant among tthe ones ch
hosen, an e
equal-weigh
hting
scheme was used once variab
bles were standardize
s
d.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–17 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
3.5
Radical,
R
Violent
V
Ex
xtreme an
nd Terrorrism Data
a
This sec
ction contains a description of the
e data relate
ed to radica
al, violent e
extreme and
d
terrorist activity, an
nd the inclus
sion criteria
a and data ccoding metthodology u
used to
construc
ct the datab
base.
3.5.1
Radicaliza
ation, Viole
ent Extrem
mism and T
Terrorism R
Related to Canada: A
An
Incidents Database
While th
here are a variety
v
of methodologie
es for studyying terrorissm, radicalization and
violence
e, the most popular is the
t “Events
s Data” app
proach (i.e., doing statiistical analyysis
on nume
erically-cod
ded characteristics of events).
e
Fro
om a statisttical analysis of radica
al
and terro
orist inciden
nts, there are
a two main advantag
ges to an Evvents Data approach.
Specifically, researrchers shou
uld be able to:
a) deterrmine geog
graphical an
nd temporal patterns o
of incidents; and,
b) attac
ch a statistic
cal probability to the choices perp
petrators m
make.
These outcomes
o
ha
ave been achieved
a
in the currentt project.
An even
nts data app
proach does pose prob
blems, how
wever. Primarily, there may be little
agreeme
ent as to what constitu
utes an eve
ent. As note
ed earlier, th
he ERTA database too
ok a
very bro
oad perspec
ctive on terrrorism, and
d included ssupport to te
errorism. This approacch is
attractive in a study
y of radicaliism, mainly
y because n
no firm answ
wer can be found
ng what indiicators for radicalism
r
may
m exist. T
To overcom
me this difficculty, an
regardin
“event” must
m
be bro
oadly define
ed. To focu
us on actual violent acttions is to rrisk a reactive
approac
ch to radicalism, ratherr than the proactive
p
ap
pproach thiss research attempts to
o
inform.
The follo
owing broad
d inclusion criteria werre used to iincorporate
e as many in
nstances of
radicaliz
zation, terro
orism and political
p
viole
ence with C
Canadian co
ontent as p
possible and
d
were derived from a combinattion of the inclusion cr iteria that w
was used in
n all of the ffour
sources.
1. The incident or activity must entail so
ome level off threatened
d or actual illegal activvity.
Supp
port activitie
es for a plan
nned attack
k or terrorisst groups w
would be inccluded;
2. The event or ac
ctivity was aimed
a
at atttaining a po
olitical, economic, relig
gious, or so
ocial
goal;;
ention to co
3. The event or ac
ctivity includ
ded evidenc
ce of an inte
oerce, intim
midate, or
conv
vey some otther messa
age to a larg
ger audiencce (or audie
ences) othe
er than the
imme
ediate victim
ms;
11th Janu
uary 2012
–18 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
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m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
4. The incident or activity must be intenttional – the
e result of a conscious calculation
n on
the part
p of a perrpetrator (th
his criteria would
w
inclu
ude opportu
unistic actio
ons which w
were
part of an ideolo
ogical outlo
ook);
5. The incident or activity must have a link to Cana
ada. For exa
ample, this dataset wo
ould
include an incid
dent that inv
volved an aeroplane
a
h ijacked in tthe USA tha
at had to re
efuel
in Ca
anada on its
s way to a third
t
countrry or any plotting, prep
paration, orr fundraising
g
activ
vity in Canada, even if the actual attacks
a
are
e to take pla
ace elsewhe
ere, is
included; and
neous and ccoordinated
6. Singlle versus multiple incidents. Events identified as simultan
would
d be recorded as one attack
a
to red
duce reporti ng bias. For example, the
simultaneous an
nd coordinatted attacks of 9/11 wou
uld be consiidered a single incidentt.
Events related
r
to ra
adicalization, terrorism
m and politiccal violence
e were aggrregated from
the four sources mentioned in
n Section 3.2 into an in
ncidents database usin
ng a time se
eries
approac
elations be
ch (a statistical techniq
que for iden
ntifying corre
etween data
a where the
e
cause may
m be sepa
arated from
m the effect by time. Fo
or the purpo
oses of thiss project, it w
was
decided that any in
ncident repo
orted in one
e of the fourr sources th
hat had a link to Cana
ada
would be
e included in the datab
base to pro
ovide a fulle
er picture off the situatio
on.
3.5.1.1
Data Coding of Ra
adical, Violent Extrem
me and Terrrorist Events
Each inc
cident enterred into the
e database is a terrorisst or radical event exissting in one
e or
more of the sources (GTD, WITS, Kellettt et al. (199
91), ERTA). An inciden
nt is
erized as a proven or unproven
u
ra
adical, polittically violent or terroriist event. A
characte
proven incident is an
a event tha
at has been
n demonstrrated or verrified withou
ut doubt byy
various sources (e..g., success
sful or attem
mpted attacck, arrest fo
or support a
activities,
official declaration
d
of being a member
m
of a terrorist/rradical grou
up, threaten
ning letter
received
d, etc.). Unp
proven incid
dences are
e events tha
at have not been estab
blished as ttrue
by evide
ence or dem
monstration (e.g., anec
cdotal reports, report o
of suspiciou
us activity
without arrest,
a
unsu
ubstantiated confessio
ons, etc.).3
Efforts were
w
made to enter a single
s
incident for every event tha
at occurred
d on a particcular
date, an
nd at a spec
cific time an
nd location. For examp
ple, if there were two b
bombings a
at the
same location at th
he same tim
me and day,, it is consid
dered one incident. If tthere were two
bombing
gs that occu
urred on the
e same day
y and time b
but at differrent locations, it is
considerred two eve
ents (provid
ded these tw
wo incidentts were unccoordinated
d). There we
ere
some ev
vents, howe
ever, that in
ncluded mo
ore than one
e instance o
of radical, vviolent extre
eme
or terrorrist activity. For instanc
ce, only one
e incident w
was recorde
ed for the a
activities of
Wiebo Ludwig:
L
(i.e., being cha
arged for th
he crimes) a
although he
e was impliccated in ma
any
acts of sabotage.
s
3
Anyone do
oing analyses us
sing this databa
ase may want to
o exclude this ca
ategory of eventts from their ana
alysis.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–19 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
In regard
ds to suppo
ort activity, if a person is arrested
d for suspeccted terrorisst activity (e
e.g.,
fundraising, posses
ssion of weapons), it is
s considere
ed a single event. If the person iss
later cha
arged and convicted
c
fo
or the same
e incident th
hat will not be conside
ered a sepa
arate
event. Iff the person
n is later arrrested or co
onvicted forr a differentt charge, th
hen it is
considerred a separrate event.
Each en
ntry in the database prrovides as much
m
detaill as could b
be found in the availab
ble
sources. For each incident, the incident type,
t
date a
and location
n of the eve
ent, the
perpetra
ators, who or
o what was
s the targett of the event, weapon
ns used, number of inju
uries
and fata
alities, collatteral damag
ge, potentia
al motives ffor the even
nt and the ssources of
informattion are pro
ovided. The database elements
e
a
and information availab
ble in the
sources were used
d as the bas
sis to develo
op the cate
egories in our database. The
categories were the
en modified
d to match the
t objectivves of this p
project.
Where a variable in
ncludes a bulleted
b
list of possible
e entries, the number o
of the bullett
correspo
onds to the entry that would
w
be made
m
in the database ffor an even
nt falling into
o
that clas
ssification.
Incidentt ID: Each incident is assigned
a
a unique ID based on cchronologiccal order.
Incidentt Source (ttext): The original
o
sou
urce in whicch the incide
ent was fou
und (i.e., ER
RTA,
Kellett et
e al. (1991)), GTD, WIT
TS).
Source category (text):
(
The categorizattion of the iincident by the source
e material. T
The
ERTA and Kellett et
e al. (1991)) use differe
ent categorrization sch
hemes. The source
y is useful to
t perform independen
nt validation
n of the dattasets.
category
Incidentt year: The
e year that an
a event oc
ccurred. It iss importantt to note tha
at the date of
an incide
ent can indicate one of
o the follow
wing: the acctual year a radical, exxtreme viole
ent
and terro
orist act occurred, the year the ac
ct was repo
orted, or the
e date that a perpetrattor
was cha
arged or con
nvicted. Additional verrification of the datase
et is required to ensure
e all
incidents
s are dated
d consistenttly. Howeve
er, for the m
most part discrepancie
es in date do
o
not exce
eed one yea
ar.
Incidentt month: The
T month in which the
e incident o
occurred (se
ee note abo
ove).
Country
y (text): The country where
w
the event
e
occurred.
Provinc
ce/state loc
cation (textt): The prov
vince and/o
or state whe
ere the eve
ent occurred
d.
City (tex
xt): The city
y where the
e event occ
curred (if avvailable or a
applicable)..
Canadia
an location
n: An eventt has been classified a
according to
o whether itt occurred
within orr outside Ca
anada, or whether
w
the
e location iss unknown. This variab
ble can havve
more tha
an one entrry.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–20 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
x
(1) Within
W
Cana
ada
x
(2) Outside
O
Canada
x
(3) Unknown
U
Incidentt type: Eac
ch incident is categoriz
zed by the ttype of eve
ent and/or a
activity that
occurred
d at a partic
cular time and
a place. The
T events were categ
gorized acccording to th
he
following
g 6 incidentt types:
x
(1) Acts
A
of van
ndalism and
d/or destru
uction: The
e deliberate
e mischievo
ous or
malic
cious destru
uction or da
amage of property whiich include,, but is not limited to
arson
n, explosion
ns, defacem
ment, crimin
nal damage
e and graffiiti.
x
(2) Threats:
T
An
n act of coercion where
ein a negattive conseq
quence is prroposed to elicit
respo
onse from an
a individua
al or a partiicular socie
ety. Threatss can includ
de acts of
intim
midation like cross burn
ning.
x
(3) Failed
F
or fo
oiled plots: Attempted attacks su
uch as arson, explosions, vandalism
that failed
f
or we
ere foiled.
x
(4) Hoaxes:
H
De
eliberate atttempt to deceive or tricck people in
nto believin
ng or accep
pting
some
ething whic
ch the hoaxer (the pers
son or grou
up creating the hoax) kknows is false.
x
(5) Support
S
acttivities: An
n activity by
y a group orr individual that is execcuted as a
mean
ns to suppo
ort terrorist or radical group
g
activiity(ies) and//or attack(ss). These
include fundrais
sing activitie
es, demons
strations, exxtortion, po
ossession o
of weapons,,
xplosives, ro
obbery, trafffic (arms a
and drugs), vandalism,,
drugs stolen goods and ex
trainiing and the
eft.
x
(6) In
ndividual attacks:
a
Atttacks towarrds a perso
on or person
ns including
g but not lim
mited
to be
eatings, murders, bombings, kidnapping, and
d letter bom
mbings.
Nationa
ality of targ
get4: The na
ationality off the target in an eventt has been classified into
three po
ossible grou
ups. If the in
nformation is not availa
able in one
e of the data
a sources, tthe
category
y “unknown
n” will be ind
dicated. This variable can have m
more than o
one entry.
4
A person’s nationality is based
b
on the Ciitizenship and Im
mmigration Can
nada definition o
of a Canadian citizen. In genera
al,
c
is typically obtained by
b birth in Cana
ada, birth abroad
d when at least o
en, or
Canadian citizenship
one parent is a Canadian citize
by adoption
n abroad by at le
east one Canadian citizen. It ca
an also be grante
ed to a permane
ent resident who
o lives in Canad
da for
three out off four years and meets specific requirements. While
W
there are ssome exception
ns to the strict de
efinition of a
Canadian citizen,
c
this defin
nition will be use
ed for the purpos
ses of this datab
base. The nation
nality of the targ
get and perpetra
ator is
based on th
he information available
a
in one of
o the sources (i.e.,
(
WITS, GTD
D, ERTA list, Ke
ellet et al. 1990))). If the informattion is
not available in one of thes
se sources, the category
c
“unkno
own” will be indiccated.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–21 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
x
(1) Canadian.
C
Terrorist
T
or radical activities or evvents that a
are targeting
g a Canadia
an
citize
en or Canad
dian diplom
matic missio
ons, propertty owned byy or associated with a
Cana
adian goverrnment (inc
cluding thos
se located i n coastal w
waters within 200 km from
5
the Canadian
C
co
oast) or bus
siness .
x
(2) Other.
O
Terro
orist or radical activitie
es or eventss that are ta
argeting inte
ernationallyy
prote
ected perso
ons, diploma
atic mission
ns or prope
erty owned or associatted with a
foreig
gn governm
ment (includ
ding those located in ccoastal wate
ers beyond
d 200 km fro
om
the Canadian
C
co
oast) or bus
siness.
x
(3) Unknown.
U
The
T target is unknown or the information is n
not available in one off the
available source
es.
x
(4) Not
N Applica
able. Eventts for which there is no
o target and
d, thus, thiss variable iss not
appliicable to the
e event.
Nationa
ality of perp
petrator: The
T nationality of the p
perpetrator (individual or group) th
hat
was invo
olved in the
e event. The
e nationality
y of the perrpetrator ha
as been cla
assified into
three po
ossible grou
ups. If the in
nformation is not availa
able in one
e of the data
a sources, tthe
category
y “unknown
n” will be ind
dicated. This variable can have m
more than o
one entry.
x
(1) Canadian.
C
Terrorist
T
or radical activities or evvents that a
are perpetra
ated by a
Cana
adian citizen or group of individua
als belongin
ng to a Can
nadian-base
ed group.
x
(2) Other.
O
Terro
orist or radical activitie
es or eventss that are perpetrated by a person
who does not possess a Canadian
C
cittizenship or by a group of individuals belong
ging
to a foreign-bas
f
sed group.
x
(3) Unknown.
U
The
T perpetrrator is unknown or the
e informatio
on is not avvailable in o
one
of the
e available sources.
Intended target ty
ype and Target location: These two variablles refer to different
characte
eristics of an event, bu
ut have the same optio
ons. They a
are both deffined below
w.
The inte
ended targe
et in an event is the actual physica
al target off the activityy (e.g., wha
at or
who was
s bombed, attacked, set
s fire to, or
o an attemp
pted attack, etc.). The target loca
ation
refers to
o the locatio
on of the tarrget at the time
t
of the event. Targ
get types and locations
have been classifie
ed into 17 possible
p
kinds of group
ps. This varriable can h
have more tthan
one entrry.
x
5
(1) Business:
B
A legally rec
cognized organization
n designed to provide g
goods and//or
serviices to cons
sumers. Als
so includes
s an individu
ual or a gro
oup of indiviiduals who are
mem
mbers of, are
e stakehold
ders and/orr are employyed by the business. T
This catego
ory
A busines
ss is considered Canadian if the
eir head-office is
s based in Cana
ada.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–22 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
also includes ta
arget types that may no
ot inherentlly constitute
e a businesss, but are
comm
monly cons
sidered so, such as ba
arns.
x
(2) Abortion
A
institution/in
ndividuals: An instituttion or clinicc that educcates, givess
mediical advice and/or perfforms aborttions. Also includes an
n individual or a group
p of
indiv
viduals who are members of, are stakeholde
ers in, or are
e employed
d by the
instittution.
x
(3) Educationa
E
al figure/ins
stitution: Any
A institutio
on dedicate
ed to educa
ation. Also
includes an indiividual or a group of in
ndividuals w
who are me
embers of o
or are emplo
oyed
by th
he institution
n.
x
(4) Religious
R
fiigures/insttitutions: An
A institutio n or individual dedicatted to
educ
cating and practicing
p
a particular religion.
x
(5) Governmen
G
nt (diploma
atic or general): A governing ind
dividual or b
body, especcially
to co
ontrol and administer
a
public
p
policy
y in a politiccal unit. Alsso includes the ruling
ary system, the cabine
political party orr coalition of
o political parties
p
in a parliamenta
et in
a parrliamentary
y system an
nd/or person
ns who make up a govverning bod
dy. This
includes diplom
mats.
x
(6) Journalists and media
a: An institu
ution or ind
dividual who
o deals in th
he creation and
distriibution of advertising, entertainment and info
ormation se
ervices.
x
(7) Utilities:
U
An
n institution or organiza
ation that creates distrributes and provides
energy. Also inc
cludes an in
ndividual orr a group off individualss who are m
members of,
are stakeholder
s
rs in, or are
e employed by the inst itution.
x
(8) Air
A transport. A system
m for sched
duled air tra
ansport of p
passengerss and freight. A
busin
ness provid
ding a syste
em of sched
duled air tra
ansport. Alsso includes an individu
ual
or a group of ind
dividuals who
w are mem
mbers of, a
are stakeholders in, or are employyed
by th
ground or in the air) and air facilities.
he airline. Also
A
includes air vehicles (on the g
x
(9) Military/Pol
M
ice: An org
ganization authorized
a
b
by its counttry to use fo
orce, usually
including use off weapons, in defendin
ng its counttry (or by atttacking oth
her countrie
es)
by co
ombating actual or perrceived thre
eats. Also in
ncludes an individual or a group of
indiv
viduals who are members of or arre employed
d by the miilitary or police.
x
(10) Private ind
dividual (person or property):
p
A private individual’s p
person or
property is the focus
f
of the
e attack.
x
(11) Land Tran
nsport: Actu
ual buses/trains/taxis/ttrucks and//or the term
minals.
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uary 2012
–23 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
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M
the Que
een as represe
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nal Defence, 2012
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e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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x
(12) Maritime transport: Inland
I
(e.g.., Great Lakkes) and co
oastal shipss, including
ports
s and harbo
ours.
x
(13) Natural Re
esources. A material source
s
of w
wealth, such
h as timber, fresh wate
er,
or a mineral dep
posit, that occurs
o
in a natural statte and has economic vvalue.
x
(14) Public: An
n area or pla
ace that is open
o
and a
accessible tto all citizen
ns. These
include Monuments, Public
c Space, Pa
arks, climatte, etc.
x
(15) Not applic
cable: There is no spe
ecific target involved in
n the inciden
nt. This usu
ually
occu
urs for support activities.
x
(16) Unknown: The targett is unknow
wn.
x
(17) Medical: An
A institution
n or organiz
zation that provides m
medical servvices. Also
includes an indiividual or a group of in
ndividuals w
who are me
embers of, a
are
stake
eholders in, or are employed by the
t institutio
on.
Perpetrator Type: The type of
o perpetrattor (individu
ual or group
p) that was involved in the
B
upon the data co
ollected fro
om, and desscriptions p
provided by, GTD, WIT
TS,
event. Based
ERTA, and
a Kellet 1990,
1
perpe
etrators hav
ve been cla ssified into 10 possible kinds of
groups and/or
a
indiv
viduals. This variable can
c have m
more than one entry.
x
(1) Lone
L
wolf: An
A individu
ual or group
p who was involved in an event and who (a)
operated individ
dually; (b) does
d
not be
elong to an o
organized tterrorist/rad
dical group or
netw
work; (c) actted without the direct influence off a leader o
or hierarchyy; (d) emplo
oyed
tactic
cs and methods conce
eived and directed
d
by tthe individu
ual without any direct
outsiide command or directtion.
x
(2) Anti-abortio
A
on group: A group or an individu
ual who belo
ongs to a g
group or
netw
work that expresses/de
emonstrates
s the idea, b
belief, or em
motion in su
upport of or
again
nst anti-abo
ortion and pro-life/prop
-choice movvement (the
e two opposing beliefss are
aggregated for convenienc
ce of analys
sis).
x
(3) Ecology/en
E
vironmenttal group: A group or individual w
who belong
gs to a grou
up or
netw
work that addresses en
nvironmenta
al problemss on a not-fo
for-profit ba
asis and arg
gues
for su
ustainable manageme
ent of resou
urces and sstewardship
p of the envvironment
throu
ugh change
es in public policy and individual b
behaviour.
x
(4) Religious
R
group:
g
A group or indiv
vidual who belongs to, or is affilia
ated
with//influenced by a subgrroup within a religion th
hat operate
es under a ccommon na
ame,
tradittion, and identity (e.g., Sons of Freedom, M uslim sectss).
11th Janu
uary 2012
–24 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
x
(5) Political/an
P
ti-governm
ment group
p: A group o
or individua
al who belongs to a gro
oup
or ne
etwork that argues to bring
b
about social, political, or ecconomic cha
ange. This
actio
on is in supp
port of, or opposition
o
to
o, one side
e of an often
n controverrsial argume
ent.
Also includes op
pposition to
o an existing governme
ent or politiical party (e
e.g., Direct
Actio
on, Armenia
an Secret Army
A
for the
e Liberation
n of Armenia
a (ASALA))).
x
(6) Xenophobic
X
c group: A group or in
ndividual who belongss to a group
p or networkk
that dislike
d
and//or fear a grroup (e.g., ethnic) diffe
erent from tthemself(ve
es) (e.g., KKK,
skinh
heads).
x
(7) Animal
A
righ
hts group: A group or individual w
who belong
gs to a grou
up or netwo
ork
that argues
a
for greater
g
pro
otection for animals,
a
pa
articularly th
hose used in laboratorries
or in entertainm
ment, as welll as domes
stic animalss such as th
hose used ffor food, lab
bour,
or as
s companions (pets).
x
(8) Nationalist
N
t-Separatis
st group: A group or in
ndividual w
who belongss to a group
p or
netw
work that arg
gues to esta
ablish a new political o
order or sta
ate based o
on ethnic
domiinance or homogeneit
h
y (e.g., Fro
ont Liberatio
on de Queb
bec (FLQ), Native interrest
groups; Irish Re
epublican Army
A
(IRA), Tamil Tige
ers).
x
(9) Social-revo
S
olutionary group:
g
A group or individual who
o belongs to
o a group o
or
netw
work that advocates forr the need for
f fundame
ental sociall change through
revollution by mass movem
ments of the
e vast majo
ority, as a sttrategy to a
achieve a
socia
alist society
y.
x
(10) Unknown: An unknow
wn individual or group that was in
nvolved in tthe incidentt.
Perpetrator name: The name
e of the individual perp
petrator and
d/or associa
ated group that
perpetra
ated the eve
ent. Suspec
cted perpettrators that have not been conviccted of the
incident are also included.
Proven//Unproven incident:
x
(1) Proven.
P
A proven incident is an event that has been d
demonstrate
ed or verifie
ed
by va
arious sources (e.g., successful/a
s
attempted a
attack, arrest for suppo
ort activitiess,
official declaratiion of being
g a member of a terrorrist/radical g
group, threatening lettter
receiived, etc.).
x
Unproven incidences are events that have n
(0) Unproven:
U
not been esstablished a
as
true by evidence or demon
nstration (e.g., anecdo
otal reports,, report of ssuspicious
activ
vity without arrest, unsu
ubstantiate
ed confessio
ons, etc.).
Incidentt Details: A short sum
mmary of the
e incident a
and any add
ditional info
ormation
relevantt to the incid
dent that is not covere
ed in one off the catego
ories.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–25 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Relation
n to anothe
er incidentt: If applicable, the inccident ID of any related
d incident.
Weapon
n/Tactic: This indicate
es the differrent types o
of weaponss that were used or
implicate
ed in the incident (e.g.., bomb/exp
plosives, firrebomb, knife, etc.). In
n the case o
of
hoax events, althou
ugh an event does nott actually ta
ake place, tthe weapon
n was
categorized as wha
atever the perpetrators
p
s claimed itt would be ((e.g., if therre was a threat
of arson
n, then the weapon
w
wo
ould be code
ed as arson
n). Weapon
ns have bee
en classified
into 13 possible
p
kin
nds of categ
gories. This
s variable ca
an have mo
ore than on
ne entry.
x
(1) Bomb/explo
B
osive;
x
(2) Letter
L
with razor blades;
x
(3) Firebomb/a
F
arson;
x
n (all types
(4) Firearm/Gu
F
s);
x
(5) Acid;
A
x
(6) Chemical/B
C
Biological;
x
(7) Gas
G bomb (e.g.,
(
Molo
otov cockta
ail);
x
(8) Letter
L
bomb
b;
x
(9) Knife;
K
x
(10) Blunt obje
ect;
x
(11) Melee;
x
(12) No weapon; and,
x
(13) Unknown.
Potentia
al motive/o
objective: The
T idea, belief,
b
or em
motion that impelled an
n individual or
group off individuals
s to perpetrrate or be in
nvolved in tthe incidentt. This concclusion is ba
ased
on the qualitative
q
in
nformation provided ab
bout the inccident (i.e., the target((s),
perpetra
ator(s), and details of the
t event its
self). Poten
ntial motivess/objectivess have bee
en
classified into 9 pos
ssible kinds
s of categories. This vvariable can
n have more
e than one
entry.
x
(1) Animal
A
righ
hts: The inc
cident was perpetrated
d as a means to
expre
ess/demonstrate the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n for or aga
ainst the rights of nonhuma
an animals, particularlly those use
ed in labora
atories or in
n entertainm
ment, as we
ell as
dome
estic anima
als such as those used
d for food, la
abour, or a
as companio
ons (pets).
x
(2) Anti-abortio
A
on: The inc
cident was perpetrated
p
d as a mean
ns to express/demonsstrate
the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n in supportt of or again
nst anti-abo
ortion and p
pro-life/pro--
11th Janu
uary 2012
–26 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
choic
ce moveme
ent (the two
o opposing beliefs are aggregated
d for convenience of
analy
ysis).
x
(3) Ecology/en
E
vironmenttal: The inc
cident was p
perpetrated
d as a mean
ns to
expre
ess/demonstrate the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n in supportt of or again
nst
envirronmental issues/prob
blems.
x
(4) Religious:
R
The
T inciden
nt was perp
petrated as a means to
o express/ d
demonstratte
the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n in supportt of or again
nst a particular religion
n.
x
(5) Political/an
P
ti-governm
ment: The incident wass perpetratted as a me
eans to
expre
ess/demonstrate the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n in supportt of social, political, orr
econ
nomic chang
ge. Also inc
cludes anti--governmen
nt views.
x
(6) NationalistN
-separatistt: The incident was pe
erpetrated a
as a means to
expre
ess/demonstrate the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n in supportt of a new p
political ord
der
or sta
ate based on
o ethnic do
ominance or
o homogen
neity.
x
as a mean
(7) Ethnic/racia
E
al: The incident was perpetrated
p
ns to expresss/ demonsstrate
the id
dea, belief, or emotion
n of ethnic or
o racial vie
ews
x
(8) Socialist-re
S
evolutionarry: The incident was p
perpetrated as a mean
ns to
expre
ess/demonstrate the need
n
for fun
ndamental ssocial chan
nge through
h revolution by
mass
s movemen
nts of the va
ast majority
y, as a strattegy to achieve a socia
alist societyy.
x
(9) Unknown:
U
The
T motive//objective of
o the incide
ent is unkno
own.
x
(10) Personal: The inciden
nt was perp
petrated forr personal rreasons.
x
(11) Labour: Th
he incident was perpe
etrated for la
abour-relate
ed reasonss.
Injuries/Fatalities:: Number of
o injuries an
nd fatalitiess that occurrred as a re
esult of the
event. These
T
data are reporte
ed in separa
ate columnss.
Infrastru
ucture dam
mage: The terrorist or radical res ulted in infrrastructure damages.
x
(0) No
N damage
e
x
(1) Damaged
D
in
nfrastructu
ure (in the cases
c
of arsson, damag
ge was asssumed, unle
ess
otherrwise stated
d).
x
(2) Unknown
U
11th Janu
uary 2012
–27 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
ERTA, Kellett
K
et al. (1991), GTD
G
and WITS
W
colum
mns: There are separa
ate columnss for
each source. A “1” in the colum
mn indicate
es that the iincident wa
as found in that particu
ular
database/list. Even
nts that app
pear in more
e than one database a
are coded w
with a “1” in
more tha
an one colu
umn.
3.6
Comprehe
C
ensive Da
atabase of
o Canadian Socio
o-Econom
mic and
Radical,
R
Violent
V
Ex
xtreme, and
a
Terro
orist Data
Once the database
es related to
o socio-eco
onomic data
a and radica
al, violent e
extreme and
d
terrorist events werre compiled
d, selected variables frrom the two
o databases were merrged
into a sin
ngle databa
ase using a time-serie
es approach
h. This data
abase was u
used to
perform the quantittative analy
yses detaile
ed in Sectio
on 4.
ortant to no
ote that the following data
d
catego
ories are not restricted to a single
It is impo
entry pe
er incident: Canadian
C
lo
ocation, na
ationality of target, natiionality of p
perpetrator,
target ty
ype, target location, typ
pe of perpe
etrator, type
e of weapon
n and poten
ntial motive. For
instance
e, a perpetrator could possess
p
bo
oth a Canad
dian citizenship and a citizenship
p
from ano
other counttry. Thus, th
he sum of a category (i.e., perpe
etrator type
e) may be
greater than the su
um of all in
ncidents.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–28 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Thiis page inte
entionally left blank.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–29 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
4
4.1
AN
NALYSIS AND RES
SULTS
Analyses
A
Performe
ed
The obje
ective of thiis work was
s to perform
m quantitativve analysess on the da
ata compiled
d to
describe
e socio-political, socio--economic and radicallization con
nditions. All analysis w
was
performe
ed in the Sttatistical Pa
ackage for Social
S
Scie
ences (SPS
SS) version 15.
It was de
ecided thatt the analys
sis should proceed
p
in a deliberate
e fashion to
o make
interprettation of the
e results ea
asier. Accorrdingly, the first analyssis was perfformed to
obtain an overview
w of the storry told by the data and to determine what va
ariables are
most am
menable for further, mo
ore compre
ehensive an
nalysis. Spe
ecifically, th
his descriptive
statistica
al analysis involved the creation of
o charts an
nd summarry data (i.e., averages,, per
year) forr selected radical
r
even
nt data and selected ssocio-politic al and socio-economicc
variables. These da
ata were then plotted against
a
eacch other to visually insspect
ships. Resu
ults from the
ese analyse
es are pressented in Se
ections 4.2 and 4.3.
relations
Followin
ng the gene
eration of de
escriptive statistics, bivvariate corrrelational analyses we
ere
performe
ed. Correla
ations were generated among all variables (ii.e., radical event data
a,
socio-po
olitical and socio-econ
s
omic). The data set w
were also reduced in acccordance with
specific subsets kn
nown to com
mprise different parts o
of the data. The first re
eduction wa
as to
y at those incidents prrovided by Kellet
K
et al (1991). The
e second re
eduction wa
as to
look only
look only
y at those incidents prrovided by ERTA
E
(200
05). These rreductions w
were made
e in
case the
ere were sy
ystematic diifferences in the way tthe two stud
dies determ
mined inclussion
of radica
al events. Finally,
F
only
y data betwe
een 1960 a
and 2007 w
were conside
ered, becau
use
there we
ere no radic
cal events data
d
prior to
o 1960. The
ese analyse
es are repo
orted in Secction
4.4.
Followin
ng the corre
elational ana
alysis, cros
ss-correlatio
ons were ca
alculated an
nd plotted
against lag time (on
ne year increments). The
T results from the tim
me series a
analysis are
e
reported
d in Section
n 4.5.
Finally, a multiple regression
r
analysis
a
wa
as performe
ed on data that would intuitively
seem to hold some
e relationship to radica
alization. Th
hese analysses are reported in secction
4.6.
4.2
Patterns
P
of
o Radica
alization, Violent E
Extremism
m and Te
errorism
re
elated to Canada 1960-200
07
The follo
owing descriptive statistical analy
ysis aggreg ates radica
al, violent exxtreme and
d
terrorist incidents documented
d
d in the four selected d
databases (i.e., Kellet, ERTA, GT
TD
and WIT
TS), related
d to Canada
a from 1960
0 to 2007. N
Nine variables are desscribed: date,
pe, casualtties, motive, and weap
location, type of inc
cident, targe
et type, perrpetrator typ
pon,
using the definitions provided in Section 3.5.1.1 of tthis report.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–30 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
It is impo
ortant to no
ote that the following data
d
catego
ories are not restricted to a single
entry pe
er incident: Canadian
C
lo
ocation, na
ationality of target, natiionality of p
perpetrator,
target ty
ype, target location, typ
pe of perpe
etrator, type
e of weapon
n, and potential motive
e.
For insta
ance, a perrpetrator co
ould posses
ss both a Ca
anadian citizenship an
nd a citizenship
from ano
other counttry. Thus, th
he sum of a category (i.e., perpe
etrator type
e) may be
greater than the su
um of all in
ncidents.
4.2.1
General
A total of
o 1217 incid
dents were
e identified between
b
19
960-2007 of which 115
59 (94.9%)
occurred
d in Canada
a and 62 (5
5.1% of cas
ses) occurre
ed outside o
of Canada. As indicate
ed in
Figure 4-1,
4 the majjority of inciidents occu
urred in the provinces of Quebec (45.99%),
Ontario (18.29%), and
a British Columbia (30.11%).
(
O
Only 2.07 p
percent of in
ncidents
occurred
d in Alberta
a, and less than
t
1% of incidents o
occurred in the Yukon,,
Saskatc
chewan, Prince Edward
d Island, No
ova Scotia,, Northwestt Territoriess,
Newfoun
ndland, New
w Brunswic
ck and Man
nitoba. No in
ncidents we
ere reported to have
occurred
d within Nunavut. Less
s than 1% of
o the incide
ent provinccial locations are unkno
own.
Provinc
ce of Inciident
Unknown
Yukon
Saskatchewan
Quebec
PEI
Ontario
Nova Scotia
Northwe
est Territories
Newf oundland
Ne
ew Brunswick
Manitoba
British Columbia
Alberta
0.52
0.09
0.09
445.99
0.09
18.2
29
0.43
0.09
0.69
0.60
0.95
30.11
2.07
0
10
20
30
40
550
60
70
80
90
100
Percenta
age of Total In
ncidents
Figure
F
4-1 Percentage
e of All Incid
dents that O
Occurred wiithin each P
Province
Acts of vandalism
v
and
a destruc
ction accounted for 44
4.95% of the
e total number of
incidents
s, followed by failed orr foiled plotts (16.76%)), support a
activities (13
3.64%), hoa
axes
(11.42%
%), individua
al attacks (7
7.89%) and
d threats (5..34%) (see Figure 4-2 ). Of the
events that occurre
ed within Ca
anada, it ca
an be seen in Table 4--1 that acts of vandalissm
were mo
ostly limited
d to British Columbia
C
and
a Quebecc. Meanwhiile 50% of tthreats
occurred
d in Quebec
c, followed by Ontario (26.7%) an
nd the rest almost equ
ually distributed
among Alberta,
A
British Columb
bia, Manito
oba, New Brrunswick, a
and Newfou
undland. A
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large pro
oportion of support activities originate in Quebec (61.7%), while in
ndividual
attacks occurred
o
la
argely in On
ntario (38.1%
%) and Brittish Columb
bia (27.4%)). The
proportio
on of failed//foiled incid
dents in Quebec was 5
51.8%, follo
owed by Briitish Colum
mbia
(35%) and Ontario (11.7%). Finally, hoax
xes mostly occurred in
n Quebec (4
48.9%) but the
rest werre more sprread out thrroughout the rest of the
e country w
with Ontario
o accounting for
27.2% of
o events. These
T
data have not be
een controlled for population, alth
hough it ma
ay
be usefu
ul to extend
d the databa
ase to inclu
ude provinc ial population data in tthe future fo
for
this purp
pose.
Figure 4-2 Percen
ntage of Inc
cident Type that Occurrred of the T
Total Number of Incide
ents
Table 4-1 Percentage
e of Inciden
nt Type Acc ounted for by Each Prrovince
Acts off
vandalism
m/
destructio
on
Threa
ats
Failed or
foiled
d
plots
s
Hoaxe
es
Alberta
a
1.84
3.33
1.02
3.76
1.42
3.57
British
h Columbia
40.26
6.67
35.03
3
9.77
14.89
27.38
Manito
oba
0.18
3.33
New Brunswick
B
0.55
3.33
Newfo
oundland
0.18
3.33
Supporrt Individu
ual
activitie
es attacks
s
1.50
0.51
7.14
0.75
3.01
Northw
west
1.19
0.75
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Territo
ories
Nova Scotia
S
0.18
Ontario
13.79
2.26
26.67
7
11.68
8
27.07
7
PEI
21.28
38.10
61.70
19.05
0.75
0.71
2.38
100
100
100
0.75
Quebe
ec
42.83
50.00
0
51.78
8
48.87
7
Saska
atchewan
0.75
Unkno
own
0.18
1.67
Yukon
n
1.67
TOTA
AL
4.2.2
1.19
100
100
100
Incident trrend
Figure 4-3
4 provides
s an overalll pattern of the frequen
ncy of incid
dents occurrring betwee
en
1960 an
nd 2007. It appears
a
tha
at the total number
n
of e
events has declined d
dramaticallyy in
the last decades, after
a
peaking in the 196
60s and 19
980s. A similar trend iss observed for
each typ
pe of events
s over time (see Table
e 4-4 ).
Frequency of in
ncidents between
n 1960 - 2007
100
Number of incidents
80
60
40
20
0
1,960
1,970
1,9
980
1,990
2,000
Year
Figure 4-3
4 Freque
ency of Incid
dents Occu
urring betwe
een 1960 - 2
2007
There ap
ppear to be
e four main trends of ra
adical, viole
ent extreme
e and terrorrist events
since 19
960. As was
s observed by Kellett et
e al. (1991), incidentss rise sharp
ply in 1961 a
and
then dec
cline steadily through to
t 1967 (se
ee Figure 4--3). The second wave appears to
o
have sta
arted with an
a outbreak
k of attacks in 1968 the
en declining
g sharply in
n 1972. The
e
third wav
ve developed more grradually tha
an those in the 1960s. It begins in
n 1975 and
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peaks in
n 1981 then
n gradually declines to almost no events in 1
1990. From 1991 onwa
ards,
the trend
d of events is fairly ste
eady with no
o great pea
aks or declines. One m
must interprret
these re
esults with caution
c
as the
t incidentt date recorrded in the radical/terrrorist databa
ase
includes
s either the date that th
he actual in
ncident hap pened or w
when the inccident was
reported
d in the sources. While
e we can be
e reasonably sure thatt most even
nts were
reported
d in the sam
me year that they occurred, it is po
ossible that an event w
was reporte
ed in
a differe
ent year than its occurrrence (see Incident ye
ear in Sectio
on 3.5.1).
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Indivvidualattacks
Suppportactivities
Hoa xes
Faileedorfoiledplo
ots
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
Threeats
1960
NumberofIncidents
Typ
peofinccidentovvertimee
Actssof
vanddalism/destrucction
Figure 4-4 Typ
pe of Incide
ents Occurrring from 19
960 to 2007
Also of interest is th
he source that
t
inciden
nts were rep
ported. It is important tto know the
e
origin off the inciden
nts as each
h source ha
as their own
n methodolo
ogy and critteria for
including
g an event in their data
abase (see
e Section 3..2). This knowledge ca
an contributte to
a greate
er understan
nding of the
e nature of the data co
ompiled within the data
abase. As ccan
be seen in Table 4--5, all of the
e incidents are reporte
ed by Kellettt et al. (199
91) until 19
970
whereby
y a small pe
ercentage of
o the incide
ents are alsso found in the GTD. F
From 1973 until
1989, all of the incidents are reported
r
bo
oth by Kellettt et al. (199
91) and the
e ERTA, witth
the GTD
D and the ERTA accou
unting for a small fract ion of addittional incide
ents. From
1990 on
nwards, mos
st incidents
s are found in the ERT
TA while the
e GTD and WITS add little
data to the
t total number of inc
cidents.
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Percenttageofin
ncidentssreporteedby
so
ources
Percentage%
25
50.00
20
00.00
Kelleett
15
50.00
ERTA
A
10
00.00
GTD
D
50.00
5
WITS
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
0.00
Fig
gure 4-5 Percentage off Incidents Reported
R
by
y each Source from 19
960 to 2007
4.2.3
Targets an
nd Perpetrrators of Radical,
R
Vio
olent Extre
eme and Te
errorist Eve
ents
Perpetra
ators of these events have
h
a broa
ad range off potential ta
arget typess. This is
reflected
d in the num
mber of cate
egories of targets
t
outlined in this database ((i.e., 15).
Business was by fa
ar the most frequent ta
arget type, ffollowed byy governme
ent (see Tab
ble
4-6). Me
edical, natural resource
es, maritime transportt and abortiion targets were targeted
least. Since inciden
nts cover ev
vents otherr than succe
essful attaccks such ass hoaxes,
support activities and unsucce
essful attac
cks or plots,, the target of such acttivities are
o impossib
ble to ascerrtain or therre may not a
ular target
difficult or
actually be any particu
involved
d (i.e., support activities for a partticular group). These incidents arre labelled a
as
either un
nknown or not applicable and acc
count for 58
8 (unknown
n) and 47 (n
not applicab
ble)
of total incidents re
espectively.
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Targetsof
T
radical,vio
olentextreemeandteerrorist
events
Medical
4
58
Notaapplicable
47
43
Naturalresources
1
2
Land transport
86
90
Militaary/police
68
93
Utilities
60
32
Go
overnment
248
63
Ecology/envirronmental
37
13
Business
286
0
50
100
1550
200
250
300
Fig
gure 4-6 Fre
equency of Type of Inc
cident Targe
et Selected
Table 4--2 clearly sh
hows that acts
a
of vand
dalism targe
eted mostlyy businesse
es and
governm
ment while individual attacks
a
were
e more likelly to target private citizzens follow
wed
by government and
d air transpo
ort. Many of
o the failed or foiled plots involve
ed governm
ment
while airr transport was
w the tarrget of the most
m
hoax i ncidents. T
These data are amena
able
to Chi Square analysis (i.e., to
o find out whether
w
the rate of hoa
ax incidentss for air
ent from wh
hat one wou
uld expect if hoaxes fo
or air transp
port
transporrt is significantly differe
are indp
pendent), which was no
ot performe
ed during th
his contractt since the e
emphasis w
was
on time series and regression analysis.
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Table 4-2 Targets
s of the Six Different Types of Rad
dical, Violen
nt Extreme and Terrorrist
Events
Acts
A
of
van
ndalism /
des
struction
Threats
Business
s
154
9
43
21
54
4
5
Abortion
6
0
0
1
0
6
Ecology//environmenta
al
23
1
2
7
3
1
Religious
s
39
2
12
3
4
3
Governm
ment
102
27
58
30
8
23
3
Journalis
st/media
15
3
5
5
3
1
Utilities
50
0
7
2
1
0
Air transport
6
5
6
54
2
20
0
Military/p
police
36
3
14
3
7
5
Private citizen
c
33
4
11
0
13
3
29
9
Land tran
nsport
39
4
25
12
4
2
Maritime
e transport
2
0
0
0
0
0
Natural resources
r
1
0
0
0
0
0
Public
12
5
10
1
14
4
1
Not applicable
0
2
0
0
43
3
2
Unknown
n
31
1
12
2
11
1
Medical
3
0
0
0
1
0
TOTAL
547
65
204
139
16
66
96
6
Ta
arget Type
F
Failed or
Supp
port Individ
dual
foiled
Ho
oaxes
activ
vities attac
cks
plots
A large proportion
p
of
o perpetrators were unknown
u
(705 out of 1217). Of the known
perpetra
ators, nation
nalists/sepa
aratists werre the mostt frequent p
perpetratorss (215), larg
gely
targeting
g businesse
es, followed
d by govern
nment, milittary/police, land transp
port and public
areas. The
T second highest pro
oportion of perpetratorrs were reliigious indivviduals/grou
ups
(131) tarrgeting mos
stly religiou
us figures and institutio
ons, followe
ed by privatte citizens, land
transporrt, utility institutions an
nd members
s, businessses and govvernment fig
gures and
institutio
ons. Lone wolves
w
(67),, political/an
nti-governm
ment individual/groups (46), animal
rights grroups (24), xenophobe
es (17), and
d social-revvolutionary g
groups (14) make up most
of the re
est of the type of perpe
etrators. Ec
cology/ enviironmental and abortio
on groups a
are
the leastt frequent perpetrators
p
s.
As can be
b seen in Table
T
4-3, the
t majority
y of inciden
nts were committed or suspected of
being co
ommitted by
y the FLQ, mostly conducting actts of vandalism/destru
uction and
support activities frrom the mid
d 1960s to the
t early 19
970s. The S
Sons of Fre
eedom are tthe
second most comm
mon perpetrrator comm
mitting or susspected of committing
g mostly actts of
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vandalis
sm/destructtion and failled or foiled
d plots in th
he early 196
60s and aga
ain later in the
late 1970s and 80s
s. The otherr main perp
petrators are
re the Animal Liberatio
on Front (AL
LF),
Armee de
d Liberatio
on du Queb
bec (ALQ), Direct
D
Actio
on, and the interestingly, the Klu Klux
Klan (KK
KK). Most perpetrators
p
s were unkn
nown, howe
ever, accou
unting for 57% of all
incidents
s from 1960
0 to 2007. The
T remain
ning known perpetrators are numerous and
originate
e from an assortment of
o organiza
ations and fa
factions and
d collectively make up
p less
than 12%
% of all inciidents.
Table 4-3 Perpe
etrators Com
mmitting orr Suspected
d of Committting a Type
e of Inciden
nt
Animal
Liberation
n
Front
(ALF)
Armee de
d
Liberation
n du
Quebec
(ALQ))
Direc
ct
Actio
on
FLQ
Q
KKK
K
(Alberrta)
Sons
s of
Freed
dom
Acts of
m/destruction
vandalism
18
0
8
94
2
82
2
Threats
0
0
0
4
0
1
Failed or foiled
f
plots
0
2
4
34
2
33
3
Hoaxes
0
0
1
1
0
0
Support activities
a
5
9
14
48
5
2
Individual attacks
0
1
0
5
2
0
TOTAL
23
12
27
186
11
11
18
Type of
o Incident
Figure
e 4-7 Perpettrators Com
mmitting or Suspected of Committting Inciden
nts each Ye
ear
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4.2.4
Casualties
s of incide
ents
Since 19
960, 405 pe
eople have been killed
d and 281 p
people have
e been injurred as a ressult
of radica
al, violent extreme and
d terrorist events in an
nd outside o
of Canada ((see Figure
e
4-8). The majority of
o the casua
alties occurrred within Canada. A
As illustrated
d in Table 4
4-4
acts of vandalism/d
v
destruction,, individual attacks and
d support a
activities account for m
most
of the injjuries.
Numbero
N
ofinjuriiesand
fataalitieswiithinand
doutsid
de
C
Canada
383
400
0
300
0
213
Injuries
Inujuries
200
0
68
100
0
22
Fatalities
0
Within
nCanada
OutsideC
Canada
Figure
e 4-8 Numbe
er of Injuries and Fatalities Within
n and Outsid
de Canada between 19
960
and
a
2007
The larg
gest proporttion of fatalities occurrred as a ressult of acts of vandalissm/destruction.
The bulk
k of these deaths
d
(329
9) were a re
esult of the Air India bo
ombing (an act of
vandalis
sm/destructtion). Intere
estingly, hoa
axes resulte
ed in almosst 4% (10) o
of the injurie
es,
and .25%
% (1) fatalitty. The series of eventts leading to
o the fatalitty was as fo
ollows: An
anonymous caller lead police to believe a bomb wo
ould explode
e at the Nattional building
on Ridea
au Street. No
N bomb was
w found. A man died when an e
elevator stalled during the
evacuation. The ma
an had clim
mbed out of the elevato
or when it w
was stopped and was
crushed when it mo
oved (Incide
ent ID - 196
63-05-23-35
53).
Table 4-4
4 Casualties of Racia
alism, Violen
nt Extremis
sm and Terrrorism by Ty
ype of Incid
dent
Injurries
Fatalities
39.1 5%
85.43%
0.0
00
0.00
Faile
ed or foiled plo
ots
2.49
9%
1.23%
Hoax
xes
3.56
6%
0.25%
Supp
port activities
24.5
56%
5.93%
Indiv
vidual attacks
30.2
25%
7.16%
Acts of vandalism/destruction
Threats
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4.2.5
Weapons involved in incidents
s
Bombing
gs and explosives werre the mostt common tyype of wea
apon involve
ed, constitu
uting
48% of all
a weapons
s, followed by firebombs and arso
on at 15%. Bombs and/or explossives
were the
e main wea
apon implica
ated in acts
s of vandalissm/destrucction (52%), in threats
(60%), in
n failed or foiled
f
plots (66%) and in hoaxes (85%). 54%
% of supporrt activities and
28% of threats
t
invo
olved no we
eapons. No
ote that roun
nding resultts in a total greater tha
an
100% in
n Table 4-5, but no incident was coded
c
as ha
aving involvved more th
han one typ
pe of
weapon.
Table 4-5
5 Type of We
eapon Invo
olved in Incidents
Incidentts
Percentt of
Cases
s
589
48.4
2
0.2
Firebom
mb/arson
184
15.2
Firearms
s/gun
49
4.0
Acid
1
0.1
Chemica
al/biological
4
0.4
Gas bom
mb
66
5.4
Letter bo
omb
9
0.7
Knife
23
1.9
Blunt ob
bject
13
1.1
Melee
1
0.1
No weap
pon
168
13.8
Unknow
wn
125
10.3
Total
1234
101.6
6
Weapon
W
Bomb/ex
xplosive
Letter with blades
While un
nknown perrpetrators were
w
respon
nsible for th
he bulk of th
he bombing
g/explosives
incidents
s, 17% of in
ncidents inv
volving bom
mbs/explosiives were p
perpetrated by the FLQ
Q,
and the FLQ were suspected of a furtherr 2% of the bombing/e
explosives in
ncidents. F
Five
percent of incidents
s involving bombs/exp
plosives were perpetra
ated by the Sons of
Freedom
m, while the
e remaining
g small perc
centage of iincidents in
nvolved the Armenian
Secret Army
A
for the
e Liberation
n of Armenia (ASALA) , Shining P
Path, Direct Action,
Nationallist Revoluttionary Arm
my and Cuba
an Action.
Suspectted or actua
al responsib
bility for fire
ebombs and
d/or arson w
was docum
mented as
follows: Sons of Frreedom: 46
6%, the FLQ
Q: 4%, the B
Brigade d’A
Autodefence du Francais
(BAF): 4%
4 and the Doukhobors: 2%. The
e remaining
g small perccentage of incidents
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involved
d the Wimm
mins Fire Brigade, Direct Action, E
Earth Libera
ation Front (ELF), Anim
mal
Liberatio
on Front (ALF), among
g others.
4.2.6
Potential motive
Table 4--6 documen
nts the frequency of po
otential mottives underrlying the in
ncident. A
motive refers
r
to an idea, belief, or emotio
on that impe
elled an ind
dividual or g
group of
individua
als to perpe
etrate or be
e involved in
n an inciden
nt. A relativvely large proportion of
incidents
s were mottivated or po
otentially motivated
m
byy nationalisst/separatistt ideas and
beliefs (27%). Thes
se incidents
s occurred mostly betw
ween 1963 and 1972 ((see Figure
e
4-9) and
d most were
e perpetrate
ed by the FLQ.
F
Table 4-6 Poten
ntial Motive of Incidents
s
Motive
11th Janu
uary 2012
Freque
ency Perce
ent
Animal rights
r
34
2.8
8
Anti-abo
ortion
12
1.0
0
Ecology
y/environmentt
10
0.8
8
Religiou
us
231
1
18.7
Political//antigovernm
ment
123
3
9.9
9
Nationallist/separatistt
309
9
25.3
3
Ethical/rracial
34
2.8
8
Social-re
evolutionary
38
8
3.1
1
Unknow
wn
381
1
31.3
3
Persona
al
43
3
3.1
1
Labour-rrelated
14
1.2
2
–41 –
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50
Number of incidents
40
30
20
10
0
1963 1965
1
1967 1969 1971 1976 1980 1982 1985
1
1987 1995 19999 2006
Figure
F
4-9 Nationalist/S
N
Separatist M
Motivated In
ncidents
As can be
b seen in Figure 4-10
0, religiously-motivated
d events mostly occurrred betwee
en
1960 an
nd 1962 with
h slight rise
es in occurrrences in th
he 1980s. T
The Sons off Freedom a
are
believed
d responsible for most incidents. There
T
is ag
gain a slightt rise in 200
01 which
mostly in
nvolve indiv
viduals who
o are charged, arreste
ed or conviccted of terro
orist activitie
es
with prov
ven or susp
pected links
s to extreme Islamist g
groups. Inte
erestingly, 4
42% of the
events that occurre
ed since 2001 involved
d suspects that are yet to be convvicted of
performiing any terrrorist activitties or have
e even been
n cleared o
of any involvvement (i.e.,
unprove
en incidents
s). For insta
ance, Mahar Arar, a Ca
anadian citizen, was d
deported byy the
United States
S
gove
ernment to Syria
S
on terrrorist charg
ges. Arar cclaimed he w
was torture
ed
while in Syria and was
w later cleared of an
ny involvem
ment.
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60
Number of incidents
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960 19963 1969 1972 19766 1979 1982 1985 19989 1996 1999 20022 2006
Figure 4-10 Religio
ously-Motiv
vated Incide
ents
Figure 4-11
4
shows incidents that were pe
erpetrated a
as a meanss to express/demonstrrate
the idea, belief, or emotion
e
in support of social, polittical, or eco
onomic cha
ange or
motivate
ed by anti-g
governmentt views. In 1968,
1
there
e was a spikke in these types of
incidents
s, largely re
elated to on
ne event. Th
hirteen exe
ecutives and
d former exxecutives off a
Hawker Siddeley Canada
C
Lim
mited and De
e Havillard Aircraft of C
Canada Lim
mited were
bombed
d on the sam
me morning
g. Victims re
eceived lea
aflets accussing them o
of complicityy in
the Vietn
nam War.
Between
n 1981 and 1983, a sp
pike in the number
n
of e
events is ap
pparent in B
British
Columbiia and Onta
ario, with 25
5 incidents being attrib
buted to Dirrect Action.. There also
o
appears
s to be evide
ence of ano
other less pronounced
p
d spike in 19
988 and 19
989 but therre
appears
s to be no trrend regard
ding the perrpetrator ide
entified as responsible
e for the
events.
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20
Number of incidents
15
10
5
0
1965 1969 1971 1975 19777 1980 1982 1984 1987
1
1989 1991 19994 2006
Figure 4-11 In
ncidents Mo
otivated by political/An
nti-Governm
ment Ideas or Beliefs
4.2.7
Unproven
n Incidents
Figure 4-12
4
shows the numbe
ers of eventts that have
e not been e
established
d as true byy
evidence
e or demon
nstration (e..g., anecdo
otal reports, report of ssuspicious a
activity with
hout
arrest, unsubstantia
u
ated confes
ssions, etc.). Unproven incidents were conssistently low
w
(between 1 and 2 events
e
per year)
y
until 2001
2
when a significan
nt spike in n
number of
unprove
en events appears. As mentioned
d previouslyy in Section
n 3.5.1.1, most of these
e
events in
nvolve indiv
viduals who
o are charged and arre
ested for te
errorist activvities.
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8
Number of incidents
6
4
2
0
1963
1970
1979
19884
1992
1997
2001
2003
20005
Fiigure 4-12 Incidents th
hat have nott been Esta blished as True by Evidence or
Dem
monstration
n
4.2.8
Comparis
son of Incid
dent and Socio-Econ
S
nomic Tren
nds
To obtaiin a prelimin
nary and su
uperficial view of the rrelationship between ra
adical incid
dents
and the socio-econ
nomic data, yearly data
a were plottted comparring total nu
umbers of
radical events
e
and selected so
ocio-economic data (sspecifically a combined
d economicc
growth and
a GDP pe
er capita measure,
m
infflation rate, unemploym
ment rate p
per capita
economic growth, and
a econom
mic growth)). Figure 4- 13 to Figure
e 4-17 show
w these
relations
ships, with the
t associa
ated trendlin
ne for each
h variable.
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12
120
10
100
8
80
6
60
4
2
40
0
20
Ͳ2
Ͳ4
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
1933
1929
1925
1921
1917
1913
Ͳ20
Year
0
Ͳ6
Ͳ8
Eventss_W/in_Can
GoodEconomicInde
ex(econ.growtth+pop.growthh)
Linearr(Events_W/in
n_Can)
Linearr(GoodEconom
micIndex(ecoon.growth+popp.growth))
Figure 4--13: Radical Events versus Econo
omic Index (with trendllines)
Events_W/in__Can
Un employmentR
Rate(%)
Linear(Eventss_W/in_Can)
Lin ear(UnemployymentRate(%
%))
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
Ͳ20
1961
2
1957
0
1953
4
1949
20
1945
6
1941
40
1937
8
1933
60
1929
10
1925
80
1921
12
1917
100
1913
14
Year
120
0
Fig
gure 4-14: Radical
R
Eve
ents versus Unemploym
ment Rate
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Events__W/in_Can
InfllationRate(%))
Linear(Events_W/in_
_Can)
Lin ear(InflationR
Rate(%))
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
Ͳ20
1961
Ͳ10
1957
0
1953
Ͳ5
1949
20
1945
0
1941
40
1937
5
1933
60
1929
10
1925
80
1921
15
1917
100
1913
20
Year
120
Ͳ15
Figure 4-1
15: Radical Events vers
sus Inflation Rate
120
20
100
15
10
80
5
60
0
40
Ͳ5
20
Ͳ10
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
1933
1929
1925
1921
1917
1913
Ͳ20
Year
0
Events_
_W/in_Can
PerrCapitaEconomicGrowth(%
%)
Linear(Events_W/in_
_Can)
Lin ear(PerCapitaaEconomicGrowth(%))
Ͳ15
Ͳ20
Figure 4-16: Radic
cal Events versus
v
Per Capita Eco
onomic Grow
wth
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120
20
100
15
10
80
5
60
0
40
Ͳ5
20
Ͳ10
Events_W//in_Can
EcoonomicGrowth
h(%)
Linear(Eve
ents_W/in_Can
n)
Lin ear(EconomiccGrowth(%))
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
1933
1929
1925
1921
1917
1913
Ͳ20
Year
0
Ͳ15
Ͳ20
Figure
F
4-17: Radical Ev
vents versus
s Economic
c Growth
The tren
nd for radica
al events siince 1960 has
h been do
own, althou
ugh the num
mbers are
sufficien
ntly low thatt any transie
ent increas
se in the number of eve
ents in one
e year may
result in a reversal of the trend
d line. The socio-econ
nomic data shows little
e in the wayy of
t econom
mic index off population
n growth combined witth economicc growth sh
hows
trends: the
a margin
nal downwa
ard trend, as
a does eco
onomic grow
wth when cconsidered on its own. Per
capita economic grrowth show
ws a minor upward
u
tren
nd, while infflation show
ws a steepe
er
upward trend and the
t unemplo
oyment rate
es shows th
he steepest upward trrend (note tthat
the scale
es used in each graph
h for the soc
cio-econom
mic variable
es are not th
he same an
nd
add slop
pe to the tre
endline).
Looking closely at the
t data, th
here are a fe
ew points w
where one m
might be te
empted to p
posit
a link be
etween radical incident data and the
t socio-e
economic da
ata. For insstance, in
Figure 4-14
4
there are
a two pea
ak-and-troug
gh combina
ations that sseem to va
ary togetherr.
Howeve
er, there is little else to indicate that there is a relationsh
hip between
n these two
o
variables. This is th
he case for all of these
e compariso
ons, therefo
ore a more detailed
qualitativ
ve analysis
s of the corrrelations be
etween varia
ables was necessary.
4.3
Prelimina
P
ry Quantitative Da
ata Analy
ysis
The prelliminary analysis cond
ducted using
g the datab
bases that w
were constrructed cove
ers
the perio
od 1960-20
007 and use
es annual data
d
at the ccountry leve
el. Our obje
ective was tto
examine
e whether th
here were some
s
signifficant relatio
onships between econ
nomic and
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socio-po
olitical varia
ables (as ind
dependent variables) and radical/violent exttreme/terro
orist
events (as the depe
endent variiable).
This pre
eliminary an
nalysis was meant to provide
p
som
me clues to the followin
ng question
ns:
for exam
mple, to wha
at extent do
o economic
c factors me
easured by variables ssuch as income
per capita, unemplo
oyment, infflation or op
penness to international trade (wh
hich proxies for
integration with the
e rest of the
e world) correlate with terrorist/rad
dical eventss? Are polittical
factors such
s
as gov
vernment ”ttype” (e.g.,C
Conservativve, Liberal)) more impo
ortant? It is
believed
d that the ex
xisting rese
earch on the
e causal facctors behin
nd terrorism
m/radicalizattion
is at bes
st inconclus
sive and tha
at there is potentially
p
a multiplicityy of factors at work. Ass
such, the current re
esearch is exploratory
e
in trying to
o verify the existence o
of significan
nt
relations
ships betwe
een econom
mic and soc
cio-political variables o
on the one h
hand, and
terrorist//radical eve
ents on the other.
Data forr some of th
he economic and socio
o-political vvariables are
e available since the e
early
20th century but terrrorist/radica
al events are only ava
ailable as off 1960. Usin
ng differentt
urces, 1217
7 events we
ere recorded in total ovver that perriod. These
e events are
e
data sou
further divided
d
into six categories, namely, vandalissm, threats, failed plotss, hoaxes,
support activities and individual attacks. It is interessting to note
e that the sp
pread is qu
uite
uneven across cate
egories, witth acts of va
andalism re
epresenting
g 45% of evvents, follow
wed
by failed
d plots and support acttivities at 17
7% and 14%
% respectivvely. Furthe
ermore, the
e
total num
mber of eve
ents has de
eclined dram
matically in the last decades, afte
er peaking in
the 1960
0s and 1980s. A simila
ar trend can
n be observved when o
one examines the type
es of
events over
o
time.
Time gra
aphs of the socio-econ
nomic data were creatted to desccribe how th
he data movve
over time. As can be
b seen in the
t series of
o figures be
elow, the ecconomic an
nd socioend to beha
ave quite differently fro
om one ano
other over ttime. For
political variables te
e, there are clear upwa
ard trends in “domesticc” factors ssuch as the level of
example
income per capita, the extent of urbaniza
ation, and ”iinternationa
al” ones such as the
degree of
o openness of the Ca
anadian eco
onomy in th
he past five decades (ssee Figure 4-18
to Figure
e 4-20).
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Evo
olution of Income Per
P Capita
28,000
Income Per Capita (US $)
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
1960
1
1965
1970
1975
5
1980
1985
1990
1995
200
00
2005
Figurre 4-18 Evollution of Inc
come Per C
Capita from 1960 to 200
07
Evolu
ution of Urbanizattion Rate
82
Urban Population (% of Total)
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
1960
1965
5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1
1990
1995
200
00
2005
Figurre 4-19 Evolution of Urrbanization Rate from 1960 to 200
07
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Evollution of Trade Openness
O
Exports and Imports (% of GDP)
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
20
000
2005
Figu
ure 4-20 Evo
olution of Trade Openn
ness from 1
1960 to 2007
7
There arre also som
me clear dec
clining trends in the ca
ase of infan
nt mortality (which is a
proxy for the country’s physica
al well being), and in p
poverty sincce the mid--1990s (see
e
Figure 4-21
4
and Fig
gure 4-22).
Evolution of Infant Morrtality Rate
Infant Mortality (Per 1000 live births)
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1
1990
1995
20
000
2005
Figure
e 4-21 Evolu
ution of Infa
ant Mortality
y Rate from
m 1960 to 20
007
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Evo
olution of Povertty Rate
% of Canadians Living on a Low-Income
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1
1990
1995
20
000
2005
Fig
gure 4-22 Evolution of Poverty Ra
ate from 196
60 to 2007
Howeve
er, in the case of the un
nemployme
ent rate and
d the rate o
of inflation, a
after reachiing a
peak in the
t early to
o mid 80s, they have both
b
decline
ed in more rrecent yearrs (see Figu
ure
4-23 and
d Figure 4-2
24). The “m
misery” inde
ex, which co
ombines un
nemployme
ent rate and
d
inflation, displays a similar patttern as a re
esult.
Evolution of Unemploy
yment Rate
14
12
%
10
8
6
4
2
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1
1990
1995
20
000
2005
Figure
e 4-23 Evolu
ution of Une
employmen
nt Rate from
m 1960 to 20
007
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Evo
olution of Inflatio
on Rate
14
12
10
%
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
20
000
2005
Fig
gure 4-24 Ev
volution of Inflation Ra
ate from 1960 to 2007
In the cu
urrent analy
ysis, the number of rad
dical/violent extreme/tterrorist eve
ents was ussed
as the primary varia
able of inte
erest. Howe
ever, the eve
ents related
d to radicalization, violent
extremis
sm and terrrorism comp
piled in this
s database can be extrremely help
pful for future
work in terms
t
of the
e qualitative
e informatio
on that theyy contain an
nd/or that ccan be derivved
from the
em, namely where the events took place, the
e actors invvolved, their motivation
ns
and obje
ectives, and
d so on. Such an analy
ysis can yie
eld a lot of iimportant in
nsights
compare
ed to the em
mpirical ana
alysis attem
mpted here..
Table 4--7 below sh
hows the su
ummary sta
atistics for th
he variabless that we have considered
in our prreliminary analysis.
a
Sin
nce this is yearly
y
data at the natio
onal level, tthe number of
observations is rela
atively small and even smaller forr some succh as povertty and
inequalitty because they are ba
ased on ce
ensus data w
which are ccollected evvery 5 yearss.
Some va
ariables suc
ch as an indicator of political
p
disssatisfaction, voter turnout or varia
ables
related to
t ethnic co
omposition had to be excluded
e
fro
om the analysis as the
ere were no
ot
enough observation
ns for mean
ningful trend and statisstical analyysis.
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Table
e 4-7 Summ
mary Statistiics (all yearrs)
Numb
ber of
Observ
vations
(i.e., Years)
Y
Me
ean Per
Year
M
Median Per
Year
Standard
d
Deviation
n
Per Yearr
Terrorist/radical ev
vents
48
25.35
15.5
23.01
Incom
me per capita
49
16875
16836
4780
Incom
me inequality
31
30.52
30.09
1.84
Poverrty
27
12.46
12.4
1.54
Infantt mortality
40
13.28
10.65
7.42
Econo
omic growth
49
2.23
2.47
2.14
Unem
mployment
50
7.52
7.35
2.09
Inflatio
on
50
4.15
3.09
3.14
Trade
e Openness
49
37.43
35.89
25.64
Variable Name
4.4
Correlatio
C
onal Analy
yses
An explo
oratory app
proach was taken to the data in th
hat Pearson
n correlation coefficien
nts
were calculated between all 36 variables
s resulting in
n 1296 corrrelations Th
he correlation
analysis
s output are
e provided in an annex
x to this rep
port.
ant correlattions within
To summ
marise the results, the
ere were ma
any significa
n subsets off
variables. For insta
ance, variables concerned with p
population ((e.g.,popula
ation,
population growth, urban and rural popullations) werre highly co
orrelated wiith each oth
her,
as were variables concerned
c
with
w financiial performa
ance (e.g.,G
GDP, inflatiion, econom
mic
growth). Within the
e radical ev
vent data the pattern w
was repeate
ed: there we
ere a numb
ber
of signifiicant correlations, esp
pecially with
h the total n
number of ra
adical even
nts.
Between
n the subse
ets there we
ere also a number
n
of ssignificant ccorrelationss. However,,
these co
orrelations should
s
be considered
c
carefully. F
For instance
e, populatio
on was
negative
ely correlate
ed with tota
al number of
o events, P
Pearson’s r((48) = -.67, p <. 001, a
and
population growth was
w positively correlatted with tota
al number o
of events, P
Pearson’s rr(48)
= .44, p <.002. Des
scriptively, these
t
corre
elations sayy that as population risses, the num
mber
of radica
al events fa
alls, but as the
t rate of population
p
g
growth incrreases the number of
radical events
e
rises
s. Correlatio
ons betwee
en variabless in differen
nt subsets, significant a
at p
< .001, are
a presentted in Table
e 4-8.
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Failed Plots
Events W/in
Can
r(48)=-.69
r(48)=.44
r(48)=-.60
r(48)=.60
r(48)=-.66
r(48)=
=-.64
r(48)=
=.43
r(48)=
=-.64
r(48)=
=.64
r(48)=
=-.64
r(48)=
=-.61
r(48)=
=.42
r(48)=
=-.58
r(48)=
=.58
r(48)=
=-.61
r(48)=
=-.69
r(48)=
=.45
r(48)=
=-.63
r(48)=
=.63
r(48)=
=-.68
Immigrantt
Arrivals
Urban/Rurral
Ratio
Infant Morrtality
Inflation Rate
R
Unemploy
yment
Economic
c
Index
r(48)=-.61
r(48)=
=-.55
r(48)=
=-.50
r(48)=
=-.62
r(48)=-.61
r(48)=
=-.63
r(48)=
=-.57
r(48)=
=-.64
r(48)=
=.59
r(48)=
=-.69
r(48)=.64
r(48)=
=.66
r(48)=
=.61
r(48)=
=.67
r(48)=
=-.44
r(48)=
=-.69
Individual
Attacks
Vandalism
Population
n
Pop Grow
wth
Urban Pop
p
Rural Pop
GDP/Capitta
Hoaxes
Total Events
Events o/side
Can
Table 4-8: Correlations Between
B
Socio-Econom
mic and Rad
dicalization
n Variables
r(48)=
=-.40
r(48)=
=-.46
r(48)=
=.48
r(48)=
=.55
r(48)=
=-.55
r(48)=
=.49
r(48)=
=.41
r(48)=
=-.37
r(48)=
=-.38
Results of the corre
elational an
nalyses rem
mained the ssame when
n the datase
et was
partitioned to show
w only the Kellet
K
data, the
t ERTA d
data, or datta between 1960 and
2007.
4.5
Time
T
Serie
es Analysis
Time series investigates the data
d
looking
g for “lags” w
where the iimpact of one variable
e on
another is delayed by a define
ed period off time, or w
whether anyy effect exissts in the other
direction
n (i.e., the “other” varia
able impactts the one vvariable).
A crucia
al assumptio
on for a time series an
nalysis is to
o make sure
e the time sseries data are
stationary. Non-sta
ationary data have mea
ans, variances and co
ovariances tthat change
e
ul statistical analysis w
with them.
over time, and it is impossible to conductt meaningfu
Depending on how
w the initial series
s
beha
aves over time, it may be trend sttationary orr
differenc
ce stationarry. If it is tre
end stationa
ary, then th
he series ne
eeds to be d
de-trended.
There arre several approaches
a
s to detrend
ding data; th
he chosen approach ffor this stud
dy
was the application
n of the “ratio-to-movin
ng-average method”. In this work, the averag
ge
for total radical eve
ents across the whole dataset wa
as taken, an
nd the yearlly total
expressed as a ratio to the av
verage. The
e yearly tota
al was then multiplied by the ratio
o to
adjust th
he figure up
pward or do
ownward.
If the series is difference statio
onary, then
n it needs to
o be first-diffferenced b
by calculatin
ng
the chan
nge from on
ne period to
o the next. In
I particula
ar, the first d
difference o
of a series Y at
period t, that is, Y(tt), is equal to
t Y(t) – Y(t-1). This a
approach wa
as also use
ed in the
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analysis
s, although trend differrencing was
s only applie
ed to the re
egression a
analysis by
including
g a time tre
end variable
e as an inde
ependent v ariable.
Autocorrrelations we
ere calculated for all socio-politic
s
cal and economic data
a to establissh
stationarity, and the
e data for all
a variables
s were transsformed intto z scores to assess
normalitty of the dis
stributions. A general rule
r
of thum
mb states th
hat a distribution is
normally
y distributed
d if 68% of the data falls within on
ne standard
d deviation from the
mean, 95%
9
of the data
d
falls within
w
two standard devviations of tthe mean, a
and 99.7% of
the data
a falls within
n three stan
ndard devia
ations of the
e mean. The
e z scores for each
variable were then described according to
t their maxximum and minimum vvalues, theiir
mean, and
a their sta
andard deviation. Assu
uming the m
maximum vvalue was in
n the region
n of
3, the as
ssumption of
o normality
y was considered satissfied. All au
utocorrelatio
on and z sccore
results are
a presented in an an
nnex to this report.
Followin
ng these tes
sts, cross correlations between a ll socio-political and e
economic
variables and radic
cal event va
ariables werre calculate
ed. These ccross correllations were
e
a
lags
s of 7 years
s before to 7 years afte
er the data point of intterest. Also on
plotted against
this plot were the confidence
c
intervals.
i
The confiden
nce intervals provide a measure of
how relia
able the efffect being reported
r
acttually is. Th
he complete
e results arre presented in
an anne
ex to this report.
Each va
ariable comb
bination is reported
r
in the annex as follows: a table con
ntaining the
e
actual co
orrelation coefficient
c
and
a standarrd error dat a for each lag period, and a plot
showing
g the coeffic
cient and th
he upper an
nd lower con
mits. When interpreting
g the
nfidence lim
data, the
e reader is looking for a high coefficient and
d low standa
ard error. T
The high
coefficie
ent should extend
e
beyo
ond the con
nfidence lim
mit on the plot. The plo
ot should alsso
display a “pattern” of results; that
t
is to sa
ay, it should
d be appare
ent that therre is an effe
ect
that (pro
obably) diminishes gra
adually as th
he lag beco
omes largerr. This patte
ern is easie
est to
identify when
w
the ra
adical even
nt data is co
ompared to urban or ru
ural populattion data. F
For
urban po
opulation, the coefficie
ent is negattive, then approaches zero, then builds in th
he
positive direction to
o a point (la
ag of 1 yearr) where it iss highest b
before reduccing to zero
o
and bec
coming nega
ative again. The opposite pattern
n is seen for rural popu
ulation.
When ex
xamining th
he cross co
orrelation da
ata, the rea der will see
e some indiividual
coefficie
ents that exceed the co
onfident lim
mits; this doe
es not imply a significa
ant
relations
ship. The analysis sho
ows that the
ere are no ssignificant time series effects
between
n socio-political data and
a radicaliz
zation data , and even less eviden
nce of these
effects between
b
the
e economic
c data and radicalizatio
r
on data.
4.6
Regressio
R
on Analys
sis
Multiple regression
n was performed on va
ariables tha
at were thou
ught to reprresent differrent
aspects of the relattionship bettween socio
o-economicc factors an
nd the incidence of
radicaliz
zation. To manage
m
the
e complexity
y of the res ults, one va
ariable wass selected frrom
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any set of variables
s that corre
elated highly
y with each
h other and showed sim
milar
correlation values with
w the rad
dical event data.
d
This w
was done to
o maintain the
orthogon
nality of the
e variables used.
Table 4--9 presents the results
s of the multiple regresssion. Only one of the independe
ent
variables (trade openness) is significant in the multiiple regresssion. The co
onstant term
m
(i.e., the
e intercept) was associated with a large stan
ndard error, and the co
oefficient fo
or
each ind
dependent variable
v
ha
ad marginal effect on th
he slope off the line an
nd was also
o
associatted with a relatively larrge standarrd error. Th
his is reflectted in the lo
ow variance
e
accounted for (approximately 41%). The overall mo
odel was sig
gnificant at the 99% le
evel.
Table 4-9:
4 Multip
ple Regress
sion of Selected Soc
cio-Econom
mic Variables to Pred
dict
Tottal Numberrs of Radic
cal Events
Model
R
.637
1
Adjus
sted R
Squ
uare
.3
315
R Square
.406
Std. Error of the
Estimate
e
19.048
ANOVA
Model
Re
egression
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
6450.103
9433.926
15884.029
Df
4
26
30
Mean Square
1612
2.526
362
2.843
F
4.444
Sig
.007
7
-.03
39
T
1.360
-.221
Sig
.185
5
.827
7
.06
63
-.13
30
-.65
54
.402
-.774
-3.431
.691
.446
6
.002
2
Coefficients
Model
(C
Constant)
Unem
mployment
Rate (%)
Inflation Rate (%)
Inequality
Trade Openness
O
Unstand
dardized
Coefficients
B
Std Error
89.546
65.841
-.363
1.646
.295
-1.627
-.617
Standa
ardized
Coeffic
cients
Be ta
.734
2.103
.180
In terms
s of future work,
w
once specific
s
mo
odels of soccio-econom
mic cause on
n radicaliza
ation
effects are
a posited (which may
y require ad
dditional da
ata collectio
on), addition
nal specificc
multiple regression
ns can be pe
erformed.
Overall, thus far no
o compelling
g evidence was found of a signifiicant relatio
onship betw
ween
the num
mber of terro
orist/radical events on the one ha
and, and ecconomic and
d socio-political
variables on the oth
her. Further analysis of
o the corre
elations in th
he data sho
ould consider
the unde
erlying prop
perties of th
he different time seriess and test m
more complete or form
mal
models of terrorism
m/radicalization.
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5
DIS
SCUSSIO
ON AND RECOMM
R
MENDATIO
ONS FOR
R FUTURE
E WORK
The currrent researc
ch is explorratory in try
ying to verify
fy the existe
ence of sign
nificant
relations
ships betwe
een econom
mic and soc
cio-political variables a
and terrorist/radical
events. Since there
e is no know
wn strong th
heoretical m
model of ho
ow these va
ariables ma
ay be
v
genera
al approach and then u
use a
related, the currentt study had to take a very
combina
ation of intu
uition regard
ding what re
elationshipss may existt, and the p
picture of
significa
ant relations
ships that emerged
e
fro
om analysiss. This apprroach is as systematicc as
possible
e and many
y possible re
elationships
s in the data
a have bee
en investiga
ated.
Significa
ant relations
ships were found betw
ween severa
al socio-eco
onomic varriables and the
total num
mber of rad
dical events
s. Similar sig
gnificant relationships were found
d between the
same so
ocio-econom
mic variable
es and vand
dalism, faile
ed plots, an
nd events w
within Cana
ada
(which was
w a simila
ar number to
t total events, so is no
ot surprisin
ng). Howeve
er, variable
es
that may
y intuitively been linked to radicall events (e.g., inflation
n, unemployyment) were
e
not significantly rela
ated to the total incide
ence of radiical events.. Time serie
es analysis of
all the va
ariables and multiple regressions
r
s of selected variabless found no ssignificant
relations
ships. Ultim
mately, the results
r
of th
he prelimina
ary analysiss found no ccompelling
evidence
e of a signifficant relationship betw
ween the n umber of ra
adical/violent
extreme
e/terrorist ev
vents on the
e one hand
d, and econ
nomic and ssocio-politiccal variabless on
the othe
er.
It is reco
ommended that future work involv
ving this da
atabase ide
entifies speccific modelss in
advance
e to guide th
he data ana
alysis. As a starting po
oint, a proper survey o
of the literatture
on radic
calization an
nd terrorism
m and their relationship
p with econ
nomic variab
bles, includ
ding
papers that
t
have trried to estab
blish causa
ality, should
d be perform
med to iden
ntify the mosst
likely pre
edictor variables and generate
g
ex
xpectationss regarding the relation
nship. This
would gu
uide subsequent analy
yses. The databases
d
ccompiled in
n this work ccould then be
used to validate the
e models off radicalizattion develo
oped, answe
er questions proposed
d by
these models, and suggest wh
hat addition
nal dat need
ds to be co
ollected to e
enhance our
understa
anding of th
he issue.
This lastt point may
y prove the most difficu
ult: suitable data for th
his work pro
oved
surprisin
ngly difficultt to obtain. In retrospe
ect, a more fine-grained analysis may have b
been
advisablle. This type of analys
sis would ha
ave looked at data at a regional le
evel to iden
ntify
why one
e area or an
nother may have exhib
bited elevatted levels o
of radical acctivity. For
instance
e, British Co
olumbia, On
ntario and Quebec
Q
exh
hibited the highest levvels of radiccal
activity. Was this purely becau
use of the populations
p
s of these provinces? O
Or is there
ndemic to th
he regional population
ns in those provinces. Within Toro
onto
something more en
alone, th
here are sig
gnificant de
ensities of different ethnic groups,, each of which
experien
nce differen
nt economic
c conditions
s at differen
nt times. Sp
pecific data regarding the
regional differences
s within a single
s
city may,
m
combin
ned with mo
ore sensitivve data from
m
the secu
urity service
es, tell a diff
fferent story
y to that of tthe current project. Off course, the
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numbers
s of radical events in Canada
C
are
e so low tha
at such an a
analysis is u
unlikely to
generate
e any statis
stically significant results.
The ana
alysis should also be more
m
fine-grrained with respect to fatalities ve
ersus injurie
es.
This may assist in the
t develop
pment of a measure off ‘seriousne
ess’ of the e
event. It wo
ould
also be useful to tra
ack the inciident data to
t key even
nts in historyy, such as the 9/11
attacks. Such mark
kers could provide
p
alte
ernative exp
planations tto socio-eco
onomic factors,
or may point
p
to a more
m
global mechanism
m at work.
Related to the issue of regiona
al data is th
he use mad
de in this an
nalysis of specific
radicaliz
zation data. The datab
base contain
ns a wealth
h of informa
ation pertain
ning to the ttype
of attack
k, the victim
m, the perpe
etrator, etc. This analyysis did veryy little with tthese data,, but
it may se
erve to dire
ect future de
etailed statiistical analyyses, or as a basis forr further
development of the
e database to suit the needs of th
he user. Futture work sshould involve a
detailed check on the
t nature of
o the data, specificallyy whether itt is normally distribute
ed,
linear, and homosc
cedastic. If any
a of thes
se common attributes o
of data are contravene
ed,
propriate tra
ansformatio
ons should be conside
ered (e.g.,lo
ogarithmic, firstthen app
differenc
ced, trend-d
differenced).
A further difficulty in
n doing this
s work conc
cerns the number of ra
adical even
nts associatted
with Can
nada. This number is, happily, sm
mall and see
ems to be iinsensitive to potential
predictor variables.. Changes observed
o
in
n the econo
omic data, e
even signifiicant chang
ges
o 2007 onw
wards have
e not resulte
ed in increa
ased radica
al
such as the global recession of
dologies us
sed by the p
primary dattabases in tthis project
activity. Of course, the method
(i.e., GT
TD, WITS, ERTA
E
and Kellet’s
K
data
abase) had
d a tendenccy to rely on
n radical events
that had
d actually oc
ccurred and
d therefore were know
wn to the pu
ublic at large
e. These
databases do not account
a
for those radic
cal events tthat were undetected ((for whatevver
ey account for
f the ebb and flow o
of membership of radiccal groups.
reason),, nor do the
Again, performing
p
this
t
analysis on data provided
p
byy the securitty services, at the
national, provincial or municip
pal level, ma
ay lead to the discovery of some statisticallyy
significa
ant predictor variables.. In this sen
nse, the dattabase com
mpiled for th
his work is a
success
s, since it co
ould be provided whole
esale to the
e security sservices forr use by the
eir
own ana
alysts.
Returnin
ng to the su
ubject of mo
odels of rad
dicalization, and speciffically the re
elationship
between
n economic
c factors and
d radicaliza
ation, there is some re
ecent work o
on this topicc.
Specifically, the lite
erature revie
ew of Keize
er, Hagen, Lamoureuxx and Suedfeld (2010)) has
investiga
ated this prroblem. Unffortunately their work a
also failed tto uncover work that
posited a relationsh
hip between
n economic
c factors an
nd radicaliza
ation. Rather, their wo
ork
suggests that radic
calization is a much lon
nger person
nal processs involving tthe education
and upb
bringing of the individual involved. The evide
ence presen
nted in this work, base
ed
on case studies of radicals, ex
xtremists an
nd terroristss, indicatess that those
e involved in
n
radical activities
a
ten
nd to be we
ell-educated
d and relatively affluen
nt. Again, th
his suggestts
that a more
m
fine-gra
ained analy
ysis, concen
ntrating on particular p
populationss, may unco
over
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uary 2012
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some statistically significant outcomes,
o
although
a
the
ey may not be as simp
ple as “pove
erty
causes terrorism”.
t
The othe
er issue tha
at would be desirable to
t address is that of da
atabase ve
erification. T
The
database used in th
his work wa
as compiled
d primarily b
by two indivviduals, butt little
verificatiion of the databases
d
was
w underta
aken. The id
deal situation would in
nvolve multtiple
blind cod
ding of the same data where any
y inconsiste
encies are im
mmediatelyy apparent and
used to calibrate th
he efforts off the individ
duals involvved. If the dataset is to
o be extended
by findin
ng additiona
al radical da
ata, this sho
ould be und
dertaken.
Returnin
ng to the ge
eneral flavo
our of the fin
ndings: thatt there is no
o significant causal
relations
ship betwee
en economic factors and radicalizzation sugg
gested by th
he data
analyzed
d; this shou
uld not be considered
c
a failure. It is importan
nt to establiish whether a
relations
ship does or
o (in this ca
ase) does not
n exist in o
order to beg
gin to persu
uade decision
makers to look else
ewhere for solutions. This
T
belief sseems to be
e a truism a
and is a
popular refrain amo
ongst the developed West,
W
but th
his analysis has shown
n this not to
o be
e. If policy-m
makers take
e account of
o this findin
ng, then futture effort m
may be
the case
redirecte
ed toward is
ssues that may prove more effecctive at guarding Cana
ada from an
n
increase
e in radical activity. Thus, the current work sshould be co
onsidered a success.
Nevertheless, it see
ems clear that
t
the data compiled
d to for this analysis do
o not suppo
ort
the belie
ef that there
e is a link be
etween eco
onomic facttors and rad
dicalization. However, the
database does not, therefore, become an
n artefact. R
Rather, the
e database is an imporrtant
starting point for further analys
ses of the sort
s describ
bed above, for instance fine-grain
ned
regional analyses of
o economic
c conditions
s or specificc population groups in
n the urban
centres. DRDC Torronto owns a compreh
hensive Can
nadian data
abase of so
ocio-politica
al,
economic and radic
cal event da
ata that is also
a
amena
able to statistical analyysis. This ca
an
be very attractive to
o potential collaborato
ors, includin
ng universities but also
o the securiity
services
s. Following
g this line, th
here is still much workk to be done
e, including
g the
verificatiion of the dataset,
d
the collection of
o additiona
al data, and
d the develo
opment of
psycholo
ogical mode
els to be va
alidated aga
ainst the da
atabase.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–60 –
50
035-004 Versiion 03
© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
6
RE
EFERENC
CES
Blomberrg, S. B., Hess, G. D. & Weerapa
ana, A. (200
04). Terrorrism from w
within: An
economic model off terrorism. Conflict Ma
anagementt and Peace
e Science, 21(1), 17-2
28.
Kellett, A.,
A Beanlan
nds, B., Dea
acon, J., Je
effrey, H., & Lapalme, C. (1991). Terrorism iin
Canada, 1960–198
89. Ottawa: Ministry off the Solicito
or General of Canada
a, National
Security
y Coordinatiion Centre, Police and
d Security B
Branch.
LaFree, G., Dugan, L., Fogg, H.V., & Sco
ott, J. (2006
6). Building
g a global te
errorism
databas
se. (Technic
cal Report No.
N 2002-D
DT-CX-0001
1). Nationall Institute off Justice, O
Office
of Justic
ce Programs, U.S. Dep
partment off Justice.
Leman-L
Langlois, S. & Brodeur, J.P. (200
05). Terrorissm Old and
d New: Counterterrorissm in
Canada. Police Pra
actice and Research,
R
6(2),
6
121–1
140.
Mandel, D.R. (2009
9). Radicalization: What does it m
mean? In T
T.Pick & A. Speckhard
(Eds.), Indigenous terrorism: Understand
U
ding and ad
ddressing th
he root causes of
radicaliz
zation amon
ng groups among
a
an im
mmigrant h
heritage in E
Europe. Am
msterdam: IOS
Press.
Mickolus
s, E.F. (198
80). Transn
national Terrrorism - A C
Chronologyy of Events,, 1968-1979.
Westporrt: Greenwo
ood Publish
hing Group..
Mickolus
s, E.F. (199
93). Terroris
sm 1988-19
991: A Chro
onology of Events and
d A Selectivvely
Annotate
ed Bibliogra
aphy. Westtport: Green
nwood Pub
blishing Gro
oup.
Mickolus
s, E.F., San
ndler, T., & Murdock , J. (1989). Internation
nal Terrorism
m in the 1980s:
A Chron
nology of Ev
vents, Volume 1, 1980
0-1983. Am
mes: Iowa State Univerrsity Press.
gy of Eventts
Mickolus
s, E.F. & Siimmons, S.. (1997). Terrorism
Te
19
992-1995: A Chronolog
and A Selectively
S
Annotated
A
Bibliography
B
y. Westport
rt: Greenwo
ood Publishing Group.
Piazza, J.A. (2006)). Rooted in
n poverty?:: Terrorism,, poor econ
nomic development, an
nd
social cleavages. Terrorism and
a Politica
al Violence, 18, 159-17
77.
Rajan, R.
R (2002). “T
Trade Liberralization and Povertyy in Asia: Isssues and P
Policy Optio
ons”,
paper prresented att the Fourth
h Asia Deve
elopment Fo
orum, co-sp
ponsored b
by the Asian
n
Develop
pment Bank
k, KDI, KIEP
P and the World
W
Bank (Seoul: No
ovember 3-5).
Vareilles
s, T. (2001)). Encyclopédie du terrorisme inte
ernational. Paris, Éditiions
l’Harmatttan.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–61 –
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M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
Historical Da
ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
7
LIS
ST OF AB
BBREVIA
ATIONS
ADM
A
S&T
Assistan
nt Deputy Minister,
M
Sciience and T
Technologyy
AIS
A
Adversarial Intent Section
S
CAE
C
PS
CAE Pro
ofessional Services
S
CANSIM
C
Canadia
an Socio-Ec
conomic Infformation M
Managemen
nt
System
CES
C
Canadia
an Elections
s Study
CORA
C
Canadia
an Opinion Research
R
A
Archive
CPI
C
Consum
mer Price Ind
dex
DRDC
D
Defence
e Research and Develo
opment Ca
anada
GDF
G
Global Developmen
D
nt Finance
GDP
G
Gross Domestic Product
GTD
G
Global Terrorism
T
Database
SMEs
S
Subject Matter Experts
WDI
W
World Developmen
nt Indicatorss
WIID
W
World In
ncome Inequality Data base
WITS
W
Worldwid
de Incidentts Tracking System
11th Janu
uary 2012
–62 –
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© Her Majesty
M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
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ata Review off Radicalizati on and the Ecconomy in Ca
anada
Thiis page inte
entionally left blank.
11th Janu
uary 2012
–63 –
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M
the Que
een as represe
ented by the Mi nister of Nation
nal Defence, 2012
© Sa majesté
m
la reine
e, représentée par le ministre
e de la Défense
e nationale, 2012
1
11th January 2012
Medium High
Low
Medium
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-1
Yes
The Globa
al Terrorism
Database (GTD) is an open
ng
source dattabase presenting
G
Global Terrorism
D
Database (GTD)
start.umd.edu/gtd
d/
http://www.s
No
http://www.start.umd.edu/sta
nal Consortium fo
or
art/
The Nation
the Study of
o Terrorism and
Responses
s to Terrorism
(START) is
s a U.S. Departm
ment
of Homeland Security Center
nce, tasked by the
e
of Excellen
Departmen
nt of Homeland
Security's Science and
gy Directorate with
h
Technolog
using state
e-of-the-art theories,
methods, and
a data from the
e
social and behavioral sciences
e understanding of
o
to improve
the origins
s, dynamics, and
social and psychological
impacts off terrorism.
S
Study of Terrorism
m
a
and Responses to
o
T
Terrorism (START
T)
Databa
ase
?
Yes
Terroris
sm-related Dattabases
Website
ATE project is an
q.harvard.edu/dvn
n/dv/nd
The ITERA
http://dvn.iq
attempt to quantify data on the s/faces/stud
dy/StudyPage.xh
html?stu
stics of transnatio
onal dyId=36333
3
characteris
terrorist groups, their activitties
which have
e international
impact, and the environmen
nt in
y operate.
which they
Description
D
Open source
Open source
Need a
Harvard
affiliation
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
need to create
own database
with these
Good for lit
review
The GTD is
based on
ITERATE
Relevance
to research
DATAB
BASES FOR
R ECONOMIIC, SOCIO-P
POLITICAL A
AND RADIC
CAL/TERRO
ORIST
DATA
IInternational
T
Terrorism: Attribu
utes
o
of Terrorist Eventts
((ITERATE), 1968
82
2007
Database
A
APPENDIX A
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
No
Medium
Medium
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-2
http://peoplle.haverford.edu/bmend
els/index.httml
This site was
w developed to
inform rese
earch into the
G
Global Terrorism
R
Resource Databa
ase
Databa
ase
?
No
Website
ers more than
ICPSR offe
http://www.iicpsr.umich.edu/icpsrwe
500,000 diigital files contain
ning b/ICPSR/ac
ccess/index.jsp
social scie
ence research datta.
Disciplines
s represented
include political science,
sociology, demography,
s, history,
economics
gerontolog
gy, criminal justice
e,
public health, foreign policy
y,
cal
terrorism, health and medic
y education,
care, early
education, racial and ethnic
c
minorities, psychology, law,,
substance abuse and menttal
d more.
health, and
information
n on terrorist even
nts
around the
e world since 1970
(currently updated
u
through
2007), including data on
h of
where, when, and how each
00 terrorist events
s
over 80,00
occurred. NOTE:
N
Differentt
results be
etween GTD and
WTIS.
Description
D
IInter-University
C
Consortium for
P
Political and Social
R
Research (ICPSR
R)
Database
Need a
university
account.
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Links to other
databases.
Mostly holds
articles and
study results.
Some
databases
however (ex.
ITERATE 2).
Must use right
keywords to
identify
study/databas
e.
numbers.
Based on strict
definition of
terrorist act,
therefore not
all
encompassing.
1970 - 1997
has different
criteria from
1998 - 2007.
Data originally
collected by
PGIS and
CETIS
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
Yes
No
Yes
Databa
ase
?
Medium
Low
Low
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-3
miis.edu/wmdt/
http://cns.m
Provides access
a
to the
Monterey WMD
W
Terrorism
Database. The Monterey
i
WMD Terrrorism Database is
C
Center for
N
Nonproliferation
S
Studies
http://wwwmanageme
ent.wharton.upenn
n.edu/h
enisz/
Website
http://www
w.unicri.it/
Dataset co
ontaining various
terrorism-rrelevant variables
s.
phenomen
non of global
terrorism. The project was
completed by Nicholas Lotitto,
Haverford College class of
e
2010, and updated by Katie
H
College
e
Drooyan, Haverford
class of 20
011, under the
direction of
o Assistant Profes
ssor
of Political Science Barak
hn. This research
h
Mendelsoh
was underrtaken in support of
Prof. Mend
delsohn’s courses
s,
particularly
y Pols. 358: The War
W
on Terroris
sm and Pols. 244
4:
The Evoluttion of the Jihadi
Movementt.
Description
D
T
The United Nation
ns
IInterregional Crim
me
a
and Justice Rese
earch
IInstitute
P
Political Constrain
nt
IIndex (POLCON)
D
Dataset
Database
Got an
account
through
registration
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Database
related only to
the use of
chemical,
Not very
applicable to
this research
in terms of
data that it
provides.
Not very
applicable to
this research
in terms of
data that it
provides.
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
the largestt open-source
catalog of worldwide incidents
he acquisition,
involving th
possession
n, threat and use of
weapons of
o mass destructio
on
(WMD) by sub-state
ers must first regis
ster
actors.Use
for an acco
ount.
Description
D
Website
Medium
http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls//crt/
A-4
Medium
Low Medium
Useful?
https://wits..nctc.gov/FederallDiscov
erWITS/ind
dex.do?N=0
Yes
Databa
ase
?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
One of the
e most
comprehen
nsive databases
available, along
a
with GTD and
a
ITERATE, but not valuable for
a
due to its
s
empirical analysis
C
Country Reports on
T
Terrorism
1
11th January 2012
National Counterterrorism
C
Center's database of terroriist
incidents
T
The Worldwide
IIncidents Tracking
S
System (WITS)
Integrated Netw
work Contains several
s
times-seriies http://www.systemicpeace.o
org/inscr
ffor Societal Conflict
datasets containing variable
es
/inscr.htm
R
Research (INSCR
R)
c
INSCR was
w
related to conflict.
established
d to coordinate and
integrate in
nformation resourrces
produced and
a used by the
Center for Systemic Peace.
Database
Open source
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
No database.
Only reports.
Text based list
would require
tabulation of
Database only
goes back to
2004. Only 7
events were
found.
The database
on Major
Episodes of
Political
Violence may
be useful.
Coding needs
to be verified.
List goes back
to 1946.
biological,
radiological
and nuclear
(CBRN)
materials as
possible
weapons. A
search for
Canada has
found 66
indexes dating
back to 1985.
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-5
Low
Open source
Open source
Open source
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Relevant only
in so much
that the list is
not exclusive
to Canada.
May still be
used for
Updated every
year. List only
started in
2002. Applies
to global
terrorists, not
specific to
Canada.
An annual report which beg
gan http://www.state.gov/www/global/te
ontains a global lis
st of rrorism/ann
nual_reports.html
in 1996 co
terrorist organizations (not
comprehen
nsive).
Medium
P
Patterns of Globa
al
T
Terrorism
No
http://lawsPublished by Department of
o
Justice Ca
anada under the
lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/SOR-2
2002Criminal Code.
C
A list of entties 284/page-1
1.html#anchorbo-ga:s_1
that "has knowingly
k
carried
out, attemp
pted to carry out,
participate
ed in or facilitated a
terrorist ac
ctivity or is knowin
ngly
acting on behalf
b
of, at the
direction of
o or in association
n
with an entity that has
knowingly carried out,
attempted to carry out,
ed in or facilitated a
participate
terrorist ac
ctivity".
R
Regulations
E
Establishing a Lis
st of
E
Entities
Low
Relevance
to research
Not a time
series
approach
http://ertatcrg.org/gro
oupes/groupes.httm
Useful?
List of Terrrorist groups in
Canada, US,
U EU and ONU
updated to
o 2006
Databa
ase
?
E
ERTA: Listes de
g
groupes terroriste
es
Website
data. Better to
rely on
Canadian
sources and
the WITS,
GTD, and
Monterey
WMD.
Description
D
chronological narrative form
mat.
nly go back to 199
96.
Reports on
Database
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
http://www.publicsafety.gc.c
ca/prg/n
s/le/cle-eng
g.aspx
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-6
Low
Downloade
This study contains data on
n
ed code book.
6,754 polittical instability eve
ents
in 84 selec
cted nations in the
e
period 194
48-1965. These data,
which perm
mit measurementt of
political ins
stability and the
correlates of internal conflic
ct
a concerned with
behavior, are
conflict dire
ected by groups and
a
individuals
s in the prevailing
P
Political Events
P
Project, 1948-196
65
F
Feierabends
1
11th January 2012
High
Low
High
Useful?
Anthony Kellett,
K
Bruce
ublic
Orginial print available at Pu
Beanlands
s et James Deaco
on
Safety Libra
ary
(1991), Te
errorism in Canad
da,
1960-1989
9, Ottawa, Ministe
er of
the Sollicitor General of
Canada.
Yes
Databa
ase
?
T
Terrorism in Cana
ada,
1
1960-1989
E
ERTA: Listes of
tterrorist incidents
C
Current list of enttities: Current list of known terrorist
P
Public Safety Can
nada groups or organizations.
o
Website
http://ertatcrg.org/inc
cidents/repertoire_
_incide
nts.htm
Description
D
Répertoire
e des incidents lié
és
au terrorisme ou à des
p
au
violences politiques
Canada, 1973-2007. Only
n text format.
available in
Database
Open source
Open source
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Some data on
terrorism,
political unrest
Very releveant. Available
But only
available in
text format.
Not a time
series
approach
Very relevant
but only
available in
text format.
analysis. In
text format
only - would
have to create
a numerical
database from
each report.
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-7
Low
http://www.strategypage.com
The MIPT Terrorism
m/milita Yes
e Base (TKB) is an
a
10-343.aspx
ryforums/41
Knowledge
online porttal containing
information
n on terrorist
incidents, leaders, groups, and
urt cases. The TK
KB
related cou
contains tw
wo separate terro
orist
incident da
atabases, the RAND
Terrorism Chronology 1968
8t RAND-MIPT
1997 and the
Terrorism Incident database
e
sent). While the
(1998-Pres
former com
mponent tracked
internation
nal incidents, the
latter datab
base includes botth
domestic and
a international
attacks. Th
he RAND
M
MIPT
Useful?
Low
Databa
ase
?
Yes
Website
D Corporation is a
The RAND
global think tank founded in
n
he United States
1946 by th
armed forc
ces. Covers global
terrorism in
ncident data datin
ng
back to 1968.
political sy
ystem against other
groups or persons, and with
h
g the determinantts of
uncovering
stability within all national
ystems.
political sy
Description
D
R
RAND Terrorism
D
Database (Resea
arch
A
And Developmen
nt)
Database
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Cannot
access. Most
probably need
an account or
pay for access..
I believe it is
accessible
through
RAND.
The
Need an
information
account
gleaned from
this dataset did
not add to the
current
datasets (GTD,,
WITS, ERTA,
Kellett et. Al.
1991)
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
A-8
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/sta
artdebut-eng.h
html
Yes
Yes
Yes
High
Unsure
Unsure
Low
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
This is probably
p
your bes
st
bet for Can
nadian Economic
c
The TWEE
ED data set conta
ains http://folk.uib.no/sspje/tweed
d.htm.
information
n on events relate
ed
Database downloaded
d
to internal (or domestic)
n 18 West Europe
ean
terrorism in
countries for
f the 1950 throu
ugh
2004 perio
od.
T
Tweed Data
Eco
onomic Databas
ses
It is only av
The Attribu
utes of Terrorism in
vailable for purcha
ase.
Canada IV
V (ATIC IV) data
base is the
e most
comprehen
nsive data base built
b
upon publicly available
s. It covers the ye
ears
documents
1960-1990
0, includes both a
chronology
y and coded data
a of
close to 50
00 incidents.
T
The Attributes of
T
Terrorism in Cana
ada
IIV (ATIC IV)
Statisitcs Cana
ada
Databa
ase
?
Excel file av
Yes
vailable at
http://www.nixoncenter.org/index.cf
showpage&page=
=immigr
m?action=s
atNatlSecur
Website
Dataset for terrorist suspec
cts
arrested under Security
ated
Certificate worldwide. Upda
to 2006
Corporatio
on is a global think
k
tank found
ded in 1946 by the
e
United Sta
ates armed forces
s.
Description
D
T
Terror Suspect
D
Database (Nixon
C
Centre)
Database
Accessibility
y
$$ per output
5035-004
4 Version 03
Need to verify
how far back
Only relevant iff
going outside
Canada.
Very relevant
Available for
but there are
purchase.
other
databases that
cover similar
information
that are
available for
free. May still
be worth
comparing the
DRDC dataset
with the ATIC
IV)
not relevant as Open source
it did not hold
information on
a time series
approach.
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
O
Organization for
E
Economic Coo
operation and
D
Development
Database
Website
Yes
Databa
ase
?
Medium
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-9
For more than
t
40 years,
0,3305,
http://www.oecd.org/home/0
OECD has
s been one of the
en_2649_2
201185_1_1_1_1_
_1,00.h
world's larg
gest and most
tml
reliable sources of compara
able
a economic and
d
statistics and
social data
a. As well as
collecting data,
d
OECD
monitors trrends, analyses
and foreca
asts economic
developme
ents and
researches
s social changes or
evolving pa
atterns in trade,
environme
ent, agriculture,
technology
y, taxation
and more. 1950 - Present.
data. Statis
stics Canada, a
member off the Industry
Portfolio, produces
p
statistics
that help Canadians
C
better
understand
d their country—its
population, resources,
ure.
economy, society and cultu
Description
D
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Only goes
back 50 years
for several
countries
including
Canada. Has
a lot of
economic stats
(population,
GDP, trade,
interest rate,
etc). Easier to
use than Stats
Can. Puts all
data in one
table that can
be exported.
stats go ('til
1910??).
LOOK AT
CANSIM
(http://cansim2
.statcan.gc.ca/
cgiwin/cnsmcgi.exx
e?Lang=Eng&
DirRep=CII/&Reg
Tkt=&C2Sub=
&CNSMFi=CII/CII_1eng.htm)
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
No
Yes
http://labors
sta.ilo.org/defaultt.html
http://www.imd.ch/research//publica
tions/wcy/in
ndex.cfm
Provides
s Canadian
Economic Data for the yearrs
8.
1980-2008
The IMD
D World
Competitiv
veness Yearbook
measures 57 countries on the
t
29 criteria.
basis of 32
Provides
s the Gini coefficient http://www
w.wider.unu.edu/re
esearch
(commonly
y used as a meas
sure /Database/en_GB/wiid/
of inequality of income or
LABORSTA
IInternet
Institute for
M
Management
D
Development
World Institute for
D
Development
E
Economics
Yes
High
Low
Low
Low
low
Low
Low
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-10
Yes
http://www
w.heritage.org/inde
ex/
Provides
s Canadian
Economic Data for the yearrs
0.
1995-2010
2010 Index of
E
Economic Freedo
om
1
11th January 2012
No
http://private
ewww.essex.ac.u
uk/~ksg
/exptradegd
dp.html
Provides
s GDP and Trade
e
Data. 1950
0 - 2000
Expanded Trad
de
a
and GDP data
Yes
bvdep.com/frame
e.html
https://eiu.b
The EIU
U DataServices
portfolio co
omprises six glob
bal
databases
s. Subscription ma
ay
be required
d. 1980 - Presentt
Yes
Databa
ase
?
E
Economic
IIntelligence Unit
W
World Data
Website
http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/
TableViewe
er/document.aspx
x?Repo
rtId=143&IF
F_Languag
Description
D
U
UNESCO Institute
e for The UIS co
ollects the data fo
or
S
Statisitics
more than 200 countries fro
om
Member States and
nal organizations.
internation
Only has stats
s
for years 197
75Present
Database
Accessibility
y
open
Open
May need to
buy $$
open
5035-004
4 Version 03
For data on
inequality
Only goes
back to 1980.
Not a
open
database only goes back
to 1995.
Other
database are
more
appropriate
(Stats Can,
Maddison,
OECD)
Need
subscription
Has stats on
Open source
demographics
and education.
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
http://www.queensu.ca/cora
The Canad
dian Opinion
a/
Research Archive
A
makes
available commercial
c
and
independe
ent surveys to the
academic, research and
c communities.
journalistic
Founded in
n 1992, CORA
contains hundreds of surveys
crete
including thousands of disc
Databaase
and texxt
Yes
Yes
Databa
ase
?
High
High
Medium
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-11
Sociolog
gical-related dattabases
C
Canadian Opinion
n
R
Research Archive
e
http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/
worldbank.org/WB
BSITE/
http://web.w
EXTERNAL
L/DATASTATIST
TICS/0,,
contentMDK:20535285~menuPK:1
192694~pa
agePK:64133150~
~piPK:6
4133175~th
heSitePK:239419
9,00.ht
ml
Website
He has done a lot of work on
o
cting historical datta
reconstruc
that goes back
b
centuries.
Provides
s Candian Economic
data, but may
m not provided
times serie
esl data. Has datta
going back
k to 1960. Many
ways to viz
zual data. Has many
m
different ty
ypes of databases
s.
wealth) forr Canada for the
years 1951
1-2000.
Description
D
A
Angus Maddison
The World Ban
nk
Database
Open
Accessibility
y
Need
University
affiliation
5035-004
4 Version 03
Must create
own database
for each year
(very time
consuming).
Used to create
Political
Dissaffection
Index
Historical
open
Statistics of
the World
Economy: 12008 AD.
Statistics
include
Population
levels, GDP
going back to
1800s,
PerCapitaGDP
to 1800s,
Provides data
for the World
Development
Indicators
Online (WDI)
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
No
No
No
Yes
Databa
ase
?
High
Low
High
High
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-12
http://www1
12.statcan.ca/cen
nsus-
C
Cencus Data Statts
The censu
us provides a
Accessed through
t
CORA
ipsos-reid census
s poll A Canadia
an public opinion poll
p
conducted by Ipsos Reid
airs.
Public Affa
This Gallup poll seeks to
Accessed through
t
CORA
collect the opinions of
s. The majority off
Canadians
questions either deal directly
cs or the Federal
with politic
election that was held in the
e
ore this poll.
month befo
Questions also inquire abou
ut
t
voting pattterns and issues that
affect how respondents vote.
k at least 50 years
s.
Goes back
C
Canadian Gallop Poll
Website
Canadian elections are the
Accessed through
t
CORA. SPSS
S
cus of the Canadian files availab
ble for download.
primary foc
Election Sttudy (CES). The
main objec
ctive is to explain
what make
es people decide to
vote (or no
ot to vote), and, iff
they do, what makes them
s
a given party
decide to support
or candida
ate, and why parties
gain or los
se ground from on
ne
election to another.
items colle
ected by major
commercia
al Canadian firms
s
dating bac
ck to the 1970s.
Description
D
C
Canadian Election
S
Study
Database
Need
University
affiliation
Need
University
affiliation
Accessibility
y
Need
5035-004
4 Version 03
Used for data
only covers
Need
very narrow
University
range of years, affiliation
questions are
not consistent
Used for data
to create
Political
Dissaffection
Used for
political data
(voter turnout,
political party
in power)
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
1
11th January 2012
No
Databa
ase
?
High
Useful?
© Her Majesty th
he Queen as repres
sented by the Minis
ster of National Defe
fence, 2012
© Sa majesté la
a reine, représentée par le ministre de
e la Défense nationnale, 2012
A-13
Accessed through
t
CORA
The Decim
ma Quarterly is a
survey of public
p
attitudes off
Canadians
s on a wide range
e of
matters related to public
ed
affairs, which was conducte
e months from the
every three
first quarte
er of 1980 until the
e
first quarte
er of 1995.
D
Decima Quarterly
y
Website
recenseme
statistical portrait
p
of Canada
a
ent/2006/dp-pd/ind
dexand its peo
ople. It is conduc
cted eng.cfm
every 5 years.
Description
D
C
Can
Database
Need
University
affiliation
University
affiliation
Accessibility
y
5035-004
4 Version 03
Used for data
to create
Political
Dissaffection
to create
Political
Dissaffection
and other
sociological
data
Relevance
to research
Historic
cal Data Review oof Radicalization and the Econom
my in Canada
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA
(Security classification of title, body of abstract and indexing annotation must be entered when the overall document is classified)
1.
ORIGINATOR (The name and address of the organization preparing the document.
Organizations for whom the document was prepared, e.g. Centre sponsoring a
contractor's report, or tasking agency, are entered in section 8.)
2.
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
(Overall security classification of the document
including special warning terms if applicable.)
UNCLASSIFIED
CAE Professional Services (Canada) Inc.
1135 Innovation Drive 121&21752//('*22'6
Ottawa, ON '0&$
Canada 5(9,(:*&(&-81(
K2K 3G7
3.
TITLE (The complete document title as indicated on the title page. Its classification should be indicated by the appropriate abbreviation (S, C or U)
in parentheses after the title.)
Historical Data Review of Radicalization and the Economy in Canada
4.
AUTHORS (last name, followed by initials – ranks, titles, etc. not to be used)
M. Gauthier, T. Lamoureux, Y. Samy, P. Race
5.
DATE OF PUBLICATION
(Month and year of publication of document.)
January 2012
7.
6a. NO. OF PAGES
6b. NO. OF REFS
(Total containing information,
(Total cited in document.)
including Annexes, Appendices,
etc.)
92
DESCRIPTIVE NOTES (The category of the document, e.g. technical report, technical note or memorandum. If appropriate, enter the type of report,
e.g. interim, progress, summary, annual or final. Give the inclusive dates when a specific reporting period is covered.)
Contract Report
8.
SPONSORING ACTIVITY (The name of the department project office or laboratory sponsoring the research and development – include address.)
Defence R&D Canada – Toronto
1133 Sheppard Avenue West
P.O. Box 2000
Toronto, Ontario M3M 3B9
9a. PROJECT OR GRANT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable research
and development project or grant number under which the document
was written. Please specify whether project or grant.)
9b. CONTRACT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable number under
which the document was written.)
W7711-088140
10a. ORIGINATOR'S DOCUMENT NUMBER (The official document
number by which the document is identified by the originating
activity. This number must be unique to this document.)
[if used]
10b. OTHER DOCUMENT NO(s). (Any other numbers which may be
assigned this document either by the originator or by the sponsor.)
DRDC Toronto CR 2012-006
11. DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY (Any limitations on further dissemination of the document, other than those imposed by security classification.)
Unlimited
12. DOCUMENT ANNOUNCEMENT (Any limitation to the bibliographic announcement of this document. This will normally correspond to the
Document Availability (11). However, where further distribution (beyond the audience specified in (11) is possible, a wider announcement
audience may be selected.))
Unlimited
13. ABSTRACT (A brief and factual summary of the document. It may also appear elsewhere in the body of the document itself. It is highly desirable
that the abstract of classified documents be unclassified. Each paragraph of the abstract shall begin with an indication of the security classification
of the information in the paragraph (unless the document itself is unclassified) represented as (S), (C), (R), or (U). It is not necessary to include
here abstracts in both official languages unless the text is bilingual.)
A contract was awarded to perform a statistical time series analysis on readily available opensource data concerning economic indicators and radicalization over the past 100 years. Upon
commencing this work, it became clear that it was difficult to obtain comprehensive
radicalization data going back 100 years, although there were good data from 1960 onwards. It
also became clear that these data were not in electronic form and therefore needed to be
manually entered into a brand new database. This database, combining socio-political, economic
and radicalization data, was duly compiled and used to perform several statistical analyses,
including simple descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, time series analysis, and simple
and multiple linear regression. Although one might intuitively assume that poverty or economic
hardship are inexorably linked with radicalization, violent extremism and terrorism, the
statistical analyses performed for this contract do not support this assumption. Of the 31 sociopolitical and economic variables, only those pertaining to urban and rural population ratios were
statistically significantly related to total number of radical events. The database nevertheless
provides a basis for future detailed analyses of open-source regional economic and
radicalization data, or classified versions of the same.
Un contrat a été attribué en vue de l’analyse de séries statistiques chronologiques à partir de
données d’accès libre et facile portant sur les indicateurs économiques et la radicalisation des
cent dernières années. Dès le début de la recherche, il a fallu reconnaître qu’il était difficile
d’obtenir des données complètes sur la radicalisation qui remontaient à cent ans, mais il a été
possible de compiler des données intéressantes et utiles à partir de 1960. Toutefois, ces
données n’étaient pas sous forme électronique et il a fallu les inscrire manuellement dans une
toute nouvelle base de données. Nous avons donc constitué cette base de données, avec des
données à caractère sociopolitique et économique ainsi que des données sur la radicalisation,
et l’avons utilisée pour effectuer plusieurs analyses statistiques, dont des analyses de
statistiques descriptives, des corrélations bidimensionnelles, des analyses de séries
chronologiques ainsi que des régressions linéaires simples et multiples. Force est de constater
que la pauvreté ou les difficultés économiques ne sont pas inexorablement liées à la
radicalisation, à l’extrémisme violent et au terrorisme, comme les analyses statistiques
exécutées dans le cadre du contrat l’ont révélé et contrairement à ce qu’on aurait pu imaginer.
Des 31 variables sociopolitiques et économiques étudiées, seules celles qui avaient trait aux
ratios de population urbaine et rurale présentaient un lien statistiquement significatif avec le
nombre d’actes radicaux. La base de données servira néanmoins de fondement à d’autres
analyses détaillées de données économiques régionales et de données sur la radicalisation
libres d’accès, ainsi que de données protégées.
14. KEYWORDS, DESCRIPTORS or IDENTIFIERS (Technically meaningful terms or short phrases that characterize a document and could be
helpful in cataloguing the document. They should be selected so that no security classification is required. Identifiers, such as equipment model
designation, trade name, military project code name, geographic location may also be included. If possible keywords should be selected from a
published thesaurus, e.g. Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientific Terms (TEST) and that thesaurus identified. If it is not possible to select
indexing terms which are Unclassified, the classification of each should be indicated as with the title.)
economic conditions; radicalization; events database; violent extremism
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