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FORECAST
Canadian Electric Power
Technology Roadmap:
Forecast
March 2000
Canadian Electric Power Technology Roadmap: Forecast is available electronically on the Industry
Canada Strategis Web site at: http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/trm
Additional print copies of this document are available from:
Distribution Services
Industry Canada
Room 205D, West Tower
235 Queen Street
Ottawa ON K1A 0H5
Tel.: (613) 947-7466
Fax: (613) 954-6436
E-mail: publications@ic.gc.ca
To obtain additional information about the Canadian Electric Power Technology Roadmap, please
contact:
Manufacturing and Processing Technologies Branch
Industry Canada
235 Queen Street
Ottawa ON K1A 0H5
Tel.: (613) 954-3398
Fax: (613) 941-2463
E-mail: akers.peter@ic.gc.ca
This document can be made available upon request in alternative formats for persons with
disabilities.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada (Industry Canada) 2000
Cat. No. C2-487/2000E
ISBN 0-662-28793-2
ISSN 0381-7733
53017E
Aussi disponible en français sous le titre : Carte routière technologique pour l’énergie électrique
canadienne : Prévisions
F O R E C A S T
CONTENTS
1
Overview
1.1
1.2
1.3
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
Today’s Reality — A Snapshot of the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Vision 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Critical Technology Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Today’s Reality — A Snapshot of the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Vision 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Critical Technology Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Small-scale Generation and Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
6.1
6.2
6.3
7
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
Today’s Reality — A Snapshot of the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
Vision 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Critical Technology Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
End-use Efficiency and Convergence
5.1
5.2
5.3
6
Today’s Reality — A Snapshot of the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Vision 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Critical Technology Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Intelligent Power Delivery
4.1
4.2
4.3
5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Assets Optimization — Transmission
3.1
3.2
3.3
4
Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Market Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Assets Optimization — Generation
2.1
2.2
2.3
3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Today’s Reality — A Snapshot of the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
Vision 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48
Critical Technology Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
Appendixes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
A – Launch Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
B – Working Group Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
F O R E C A S T
1
OVERVIEW
In an increasingly deregulated and competitive
marketplace, the Canadian electric power
industry is facing new circumstances for which
it needs to prepare. In the future, energy will be
viewed as a commodity. Increased competition
will lead to new players and partnerships, new
products and businesses and, most importantly, a
bottom-line imperative.
The industry is changing from focussing on
supply that is mainly generation-dominated and
characterized by a preoccupation with security
and energy reserve to being a consumeroriented, economic and ecologically optimized
energy provider.
One of the crucial dimensions for ensuring
success in this emerging market environment is
technological preparedness. Every industrial
context demands that increased attention be paid
to technology as a critical force, and the
Canadian electric power industry is no
exception. The challenges facing the Canadian
industry can be formulated into three main
questions:
• How can we reduce the risk of investment in
research and development (R&D)?
• How do we align R&D investment with true
market potential?
• How can we sustain meaningful
and commercial progress while
building on existing competencies and
capabilities?
Technology roadmaps provide a tool for finding
answers to these questions. This forecast
document provides a foundation for
roadmapping Canadian electric power
technologies.
1.1 Background
The Canadian Electric Power Technology
Roadmap forecast exercise was launched at a
workshop of senior Canadian utility executives
in March 1998. See Appendix A for a list of the
Canadian Electric Power Technology Roadmap
launch participants. At that workshop, the
concept of roadmapping was discussed, using
the U.S. experience as a guide.
The first step in the roadmap forecast exercise
was to select, for in-depth analysis, the major
issues on which the Canadian industry needs to
focus. The selection process began with an
examination of extensive data collected from
global Delphi surveys on an ongoing basis since
1995 by Professors Louis Lefebvre and
Elisabeth Lefebvre of École Polytechnique in
Montréal. Following analysis and synthesis of
these studies on technological trends, markets
and competition in the electric power industry,
the main underlying issues driving markets,
competition and technologies were identified.
Then, a validation of the relevance of the main
issues was carried out through a preliminary
survey among key Canadian industry players.
Their comments and suggestions were integrated
into a final selection of the issues to be studied
in compiling the roadmap forecast.
The top ten issues selected by the industry
officials for study were:
• refurbishment of existing power plants and
transmission/distribution networks
• cleaner power generation from fossil fuels
• intelligent, reliable, multipurpose and remote
controlled power delivery
• convergence in the delivery of multiple
services
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• efficient energy use or end-use efficiency
• power quality
• renewable sources of energy
• small-scale distributed generation
R o a d m a p
all-encompassing, multidisciplinary and
structured process, combine business and
technology analysis, and represent valuable
strategic tools for individual firms/organizations
(private or public) as well as for groups of firms
and whole industries.
• nuclear energy
The purpose of a technology roadmap is, among
other things, to:
• vehicles of the future, driven by electric,
hybrid and alternative fuels.
• reduce technology investment risk
From the above list, workshop participants
selected four issues (combining some) for
development into roadmap forecasts. These
were:
• assets optimization
• intelligent power delivery
• end-use efficiency and convergence
• small-scale generation and renewables.
Working groups were established to analyse
these four issues. The Assets Optimization
working group subsequently split to focus on
two aspects of the issue under analysis, namely,
generation and transmission/distribution.
• identify and seize future market opportunities
• respond to competitive threats
• strengthen technology infrastructure
• identify the critical technologies, skills and
core competencies needed
• bring the supply chain (upstream and
downstream) into the planning process.
Each of the working groups analysed their issue
in terms of market demand in 2020:
• What products and services will customers
demand in 2020?
• Will the customers of 2020 be the same as
today’s?
1.2 Methodology
A technology roadmap is an attempt to try to
understand what the market in the future will
demand in terms of products and services, so
that the firms making up the industry today can
make the appropriate R&D investment decisions
necessary for satisfying that future market. It is
an industry-led initiative that focusses on
market-pull rather than technology-push
analysis.
Technology roadmaps provide a long-range
view of technologies, product direction and
timing. They also allow for the integration of
interdependencies between technology, market
trends and the characteristics of a competitive
environment. Technology roadmaps adopt an
2
• Will the suppliers in 2020 be the ones we are
familiar with today?
• Will the products being delivered in 2020 be
recognizable to people of today?
This market-pull analytic focus is the product of
this report. It forecasts the technology areas on
which the industry will need to focus, given the
market demands of 2020.
Each chapter in the present report examines one
of the key issues identified by the launch group
and analysed by the four working groups, as
explained above under Background. Each
working group was composed of a different mix
of industry representatives, but each approached
F O R E C A S T
the issue from the same market-pull analytical
perspective. See Appendix B for a list of
working group participants.
• cost/competitiveness
The particular issue and the mix of working
group members have led to some variance in the
way these chapters have been presented. For
example, the issues identified by the Assets
Optimization — Transmission working group
are very similar to the ones identified by the
Intelligent Power Delivery working group, so
there is some duplication. There are some
crosscutting technologies such as information
technologies, which are critical across a number
of issues, so again there may be some
duplication. Finally, it was recognized by the
launch committee that there are more than just
the four issues being discussed in this report.
The future of nuclear generation, for example, is
very important for this sector. However, for this
first roadmap forecast, the launch committee
decided that the industry should focus on the
four issues described above under Background.
• customer choice.
1.3 Market Drivers
Today, electricity is a relatively cheap and
reliable energy source. It is supplied by
provincially operated monopolies at near cost
for the economic growth and social benefit of
the provinces. There is no competition among
suppliers, and very few purchasing options are
offered. Electricity has become “a necessity of
modern life” and is supplied automatically with
no decision required by the consumer. In
addition, it is generally available on demand,
whatever the quality and at whatever time.
Prices are set by regulators, based on the cost of
supply.
However, fundamental changes are impacting
the energy market and the companies supplying
energy products and services, influenced by
three major drivers. These drivers will continue
to shape the industry to a greater or lesser extent
to the year 2020 and beyond. They are:
• environmental issues
Cost Competitiveness
Deregulation and the opening of electricity
markets to competition will change the way
traditional suppliers do business in 2020. The
electricity industry will attract new entrants with
new products, services and capabilities. The
ability to “wheel” power across jurisdictions and
the separation of buyer from seller will open up
new markets, and formerly captive markets will
have to be defended. This impending
competition will force all utilities to understand
the costs, revenues and profitability of each
segment of their business.
For example, energy suppliers will be under
extreme price pressure. Frequent switching by
customers to get the lowest price will cause
great uncertainty. There will be a need for highly
efficient, economical, flexible systems. In
addition, the energy supplier will be financially
at risk for capital investments associated with
capacity additions. This will tend to favour less
capital intensive projects and shorter
construction schedules. Small-scale generation
and renewable systems will be less capital
intensive and will require shorter installation
times than central systems. This will result in
lower risk for the supplier. In addition, there will
be a large number of ideal sites where uses will
exist for waste heat. Highly efficient use of fuel
will result in lower prices. On-site generation
will avoid the costs and losses incurred by the
transmission and distribution system and may
even be used to defer upgrades to the
transmission and distribution system (by
supplying a new load from an on-site generator
rather than building new transmission and
distribution to service it).
Equipment and service providers will no longer
be able to rely on long-standing relationships
3
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
with customers that permit joint planning and
design of customized products. Price, short lead
times, performance guarantees and support
services will be critical. Equipment will be able
to self-diagnose and perhaps self-fix through
software. More money may be made from
operating and maintaining equipment than from
selling it. The sector will be impacted by
strategic alliances, partnerships, and mergers and
acquisitions, all aimed at exploiting synergies
and reducing risk. This globalization of all
aspects of this sector as well as all areas of
economic life will drive companies to find lowcost solutions to all areas of their businesses.
Along with deregulation and competition will
come the financial discipline expected of every
private company. Whether or not former Crown
corporations are privatized, all players in the
new environment will need to display bottomline awareness. Instant communication via the
Internet will allow investors to move capital
quickly and efficiently. Therefore, successful
companies will have a very strong focus on
shareholder value and the equity markets.
Environmental Issues
Whether the Kyoto Protocol is implemented by
the signatories or not, the importance of the
environment as a factor in decision making in all
areas of economic life will be clear to everyone
in 2020. For the electric power industry, this will
mean especially greenhouse gas emissions.
Government policy may be needed to create
market mechanisms to ensure the benefits of
“greener” energy sources will be rewarded, for
example, by putting costs on a par with “dirtier”
sources. There is no question, however, that
environmental issues will drive this sector, as it
will others.
There will be more government intervention to
regulate greenhouse gas emissions and the use
of water. Particulates, mercury, heavy metals,
various oxides of sulphur (SOx), migratory fish
protection, dam safety and watershed
management will be subject to stricter regulation
4
R o a d m a p
and public scrutiny. Land use restrictions,
particularly those relating to large hydro
reservoirs, will also be an impediment to
building new greenfield hydro projects.
Environmental standards may also be used as
entry barriers in different markets.
Customer Choice
The customer will be king. The customer will
increasingly put demands on the electricity
provider for services and levels of performance
not anticipated by utilities today. Customers will
demand total energy solutions that deliver both
electricity and heat, with the installation
engineering provided by the energy supplier.
Unreliability will not be accepted, and
customers will switch suppliers with the ease
with which telephone customers switch
providers today. The Internet will provide
customers with the information needed to make
the best choices regarding price, quality and
preference for specific characteristics such as
environmentally friendly energy sourcing.
For example, power quality will be absolutely
critical to some industries using sensitive
electronic controls, as even small electrical
irregularities can cause industries to shut down,
costing them large amounts of money and time.
Industrial and institutional customers will pay a
premium for improved power quality and
reliability from locally installed distributed
generation projects if bulk transmission and
distribution systems fail to perform to expected
standards. The customer will not care how the
energy is produced or who delivers it, so long as
it has the required attributes. Using the current
telephone industry as a model, in 2020, there
will be products we cannot yet imagine and
solutions for which we have yet to define the
problems. The entities that understand the
customers and their needs will prosper. Those
that do not will disappear.
F O R E C A S T
2
ASSETS OPTIMIZATION — GENERATION
2.1 Today’s Reality — A
Snapshot of the Industry
Today’s reality is that all Canadian electric
utilities are in various stages of transition. They
are moving from an “obligation to serve” role to
an open-market, competitive commodity supply
role. The future electricity market will be much
different from that in the years leading up to the
2000s. Customers are changing. Products and
their values are changing. The utilities
themselves are changing in response.
The current distribution of electricity by supply
type varies throughout the country (Figure 2-1).
Hydro-electric generation predominates,
especially in British Columbia, Manitoba and
Québec, where it supplies almost 100 percent of
needs. Nuclear generation also supplies a large
portion, approximately 50 percent of Ontario
needs. Fossil fuels, primarily coal, supply about
the same share as nuclear generation. Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick
and Ontario are major coal users. Renewable
energy technologies and cogeneration provide
only a small part of the overall supply.
Customers
The customers of the vertically integrated,
monopolistic electric utilities are fairly
straightforward. They can fit into one of four
classes of franchise customers: direct industrial,
municipal electric utilities, direct retail, or
remote area customers. There are also external
utility-to-utility sales.
Direct industrials are very large corporate
customers who typically consume large
quantities of capacity (measured in megawatts),
use large quantities of energy (measured in
megawatt-hours) and take their electricity at
higher voltage levels. They pay according to a
series of fixed-rate schedules, over which they
have little if any control or input. While these
customers pay lower rates than retail, they
frequently feel they are subsidizing the retail
sector, and at times consider cogeneration or onsite independent power supply. The ability to
pursue these paths, however, often is or is seen
to be blocked by utilities and/or regulatory
requirements. These customers demand high
reliability and in some cases high quality. They
are reluctant to spend funds and resources on
Figure 2-1. Today’s Canadian Electric Power Sources
Hydro 60.0%
Renewable energy
technologies 1.0%
Nuclear 15.0%
Cogeneration 4.0%
Fossil 20.0%
5
C a n a d i a n
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P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
secondary businesses such as internal electricity
generation facilities.
Municipal electric utilities provide electricity
distribution systems to large municipally sited
retail and industrial customers. Essentially they
take electricity from the vertically integrated
generation/transmission utility and lower the
voltage to levels suitable for their systems. They
may be either government or privately owned
and/or operated. They are accustomed to very
simple purchase price schemes (capacity and
energy rates, peak and off-peak) and selling rate
approval systems. They have very little if any
control over the costs of their electricity
supplies. Their primary focus is the design and
operation of their distribution systems for costeffective, reliable supply locally.
Direct retail customers are generally residential
and smaller commercial/industrial customers
still served by the main electrical system but
located outside a municipal electric utility’s
boundaries. Essentially these customers have
some form of default supplier — often the
franchised, vertically integrated electric utility of
the province or region. These customers pay
significantly higher energy prices than their
urban counterparts, but are still usually
subsidized by the overall system or through
government grants.
Remote area customers are generally served by
remote, off-grid local generation and distribution
systems. Many are in northern, fly-in
communities. Small, high-priced local
generators using diesels and diesel oil serve
these customers. Generation cost is very high,
often two to ten times that for grid-supplied,
municipal customers. Prices are also high, but
are usually subsidized by grid system customers
of the franchised supplier or through
government grants. These areas are favourite
spots for trials and use of higher capital cost
renewable technologies. Customer generation is
more favourably looked at, but generally cannot
compete with the lower, subsidized rates.
6
R o a d m a p
Surplus energy and capacity are often sold
and/or traded between utilities. In the past, these
trades were strictly between franchised utilities;
the two parties shared equally the margin
between the marginal cost of the seller and the
marginal cost of the buyer. The arrangement was
very cooperative between utilities, but gave
actual customers no option or choice in the
matter.
Products
Today’s vertically integrated monopolistic
electric utilities in Canada typically have a
single focus — electricity generation. As a
result, they have only four major products:
electrical energy, electrical capacity, thermal
energy and by-products.
Energy is sold by the unit based on a small
number of “price schedules” to various franchise
customers. The franchise customer prices are
averaged over some period of time, with
minimal variation by day or by season. Some
time-of-day pricing is used, but it is not
widespread.
Energy is also sold outside franchise areas, but
on a negotiated basis between two franchise
utilities. The sales result in a sharing of the
savings from the sale between the two utilities.
Both long-term and short-term supply contracts
exist, although in recent years most have been
short-term and/or spot market sales.
Electrical capacity is sold primarily to larger
wholesale customers — direct industrials and
municipal electric utilities. A monthly charge is
based on peak use of power by that customer
during a month, usually with little regard for
time of day or season. Interruptible service
customers, who may have their service
interrupted with little or no notice, do not
generally pay for “capacity.”
Capacity is also sold between regionally
franchised utilities (utilities that have exclusive
rights to service clients in a specific
F O R E C A S T
geographical area). The sale is usually customtailored and hence either includes a season/
time-of-day capacity component or buries that
component in the energy price. This is less
common as more utilities go to the spot market.
Thermal energy is not a major product for
electric utilities. Given its added capital costs
and complications to technical and commercial
operations, thermal energy is generally the
exception. Most often, it is initiated by a local
customer or developer.
By-products are bulk materials that utilities
produce on an ongoing basis as a result of their
normal electricity production operations. They
generally sell the by-products either to make a
profit or to reduce their disposal costs. Some
examples are coal fly ash for concrete
manufacture, gypsum from a flue gas
desulphurization system, or tritium from heavy
water production.
Suppliers
Government or privately owned vertically
integrated utilities are by far the dominant
suppliers of electricity in Canada. Governments
started most as a means to ensure that all their
constituents received reliable electricity supply
at the lowest practical cost. Most electric utilities
in Canada are near sole-supplier monopolies that
have been provincial government-owned (except
in Alberta) since their inception. Many, however,
are in the initial stages of transitioning into
something different: public/private partnerships,
private sector splits into smaller, more diverse
entities, or growth into regional or global energy
utilities.
Until 2000, most Canadian electric utilities
faced minimal competition within their homemarket franchise. Many were protected from
competition by regulation. Competition was
primarily limited to who could sell the most to
neighbouring utilities (not users) and at what
profit. Independent self-generators, cogenerators
and independent power producers (IPPs) faced
many obstacles in competing.
Reliability of supply is the ultimate focus of the
Canadian electric utility monopolies. As the
monopoly supplier, lowest cost and reliability
sometimes are at odds, with reliability usually
the primary criterion. While cost reduction
continues to be a major influence on utilities,
reliable customer supply remains the first
priority.
Fossil fuel generating plants play a variety of
roles within different systems in Canada. In
Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia, fossil fuel generating systems play
a base load role. In Ontario, fossil fuel
generation varies from base load to intermediate
to even peaking. A common feature of almost all
of these plants is that they have been built using
proven and reliable pre-1980s technology. Their
efficiencies are considered low at 33–38 percent.
Efficiency is limited by the theoretical limits of
the steam cycle. Efficiency is not as critical as
reliability, since coal is cheap. Other alternatives
such as natural gas-fueled combined cycles,
although more efficient, are considered too
unreliable and/or too expensive to operate.
Large, high-efficiency hydro-electric generation
is fully proven and largely fully utilized in
Canada. British Columbia, Manitoba, Québec,
Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario and New
Brunswick all have fully developed commercial
systems. The hydro-electric units form the base
of these utilities’ systems. Most have been built
long enough ago that their costs, even including
capitalization, are low relative to fossil fuel
generation. Significant quantities of larger
hydro-electric capacity and small, run-of-river
generation remain in some parts of the country.
Cost, market limits, environmental issues and
transmission requirements have influenced their
development to date.
Industrial cogeneration is not common in
Canada but is growing. Canadian electricity
rates are generally low enough to discourage
7
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T e c h n o l o g y
cogeneration. In addition, there are real and
perceived regulatory and commercial barriers
that strongly discourage it. Industry itself is
reluctant, given the rules, to take the risk of selfgeneration. The capital needed to develop
cogeneration is generally perceived as achieving
higher returns when invested in core business.
Nuclear generation was embraced in Canada and
in Ontario, in particular, in the 1960s. The dream
was realized in 1972 with the start-up of the first
nuclear CANDU unit at Pickering, Ontario.
Initial operation was very successful. CANDU
facilities were added in Ontario, Québec and
New Brunswick, and also abroad in Argentina,
South Korea and Romania. CANDU reactors
were initially world leaders in commercial
availability. Equipment reliability problems due
to poor management practices and poor
maintenance developed in the mid to late 1980s
and were exacerbated into the 1990s. These
problems led Ontario Hydro in 1997 to initiate
its nuclear recovery program. Ontario Hydro
took seven units temporarily out of service in
order to focus its maintenance resources on the
remaining 12. The end of 1999 saw the start of
the work on the out-of-service units to return
some or all of them to commercial service.
Combined cycle generation began in the late
1980s to take on a more important role with the
introduction of the advanced General Electric 7F
gas turbine. While initial plans in the early
1990s were expected to see fairly wide adoption
of the gas turbine, simple and combined cycle, a
major recession delayed implementation in
Canada until past 2000. Widespread adoption in
the U.S. and the rest of the world makes
combined cycle generation the technology of
choice for any new additions well into the
second decade of the 21st century.
Renewable energy and distributed generation
technologies play very small roles in Canada
(excluding conventional hydro-electric
generation). The up-front costs of renewable
technology are a major roadblock to its use, as
are its unpredictable or intermittent nature.
8
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The high cost is due in part to its development
status and, in many cases, to its limited resources
and scale. So far, it has not proven either its
reliability/life or its efficiency in commercial
operation. The unpredictable or intermittent
nature of these technologies generally means
that additional backup generation facilities or
electricity storage facilities are required.
Electricity Generation
Equipment and Service
Suppliers
The end of the 1990s has seen the near
completion of the globalization in the electricity
generation technology supplier market.
Individual companies have largely completed
their internal consolidations. Typically, each one
has established individual world product
mandate centres. Canada, for instance, has
significant facilities in the hydro-electric turbine,
industrial boiler, and nuclear steam generator
and component areas. Major global mergers
have today reduced the numbers of major
electricity equipment vendors serving the
industry worldwide to only a handful. Canada
has retained its significant hydro-electric
presence, but has lost many branch production
facilities.
The services sector to the electricity generation
industry continues to undergo major changes,
primarily consolidations. This sector includes
areas such as research and development,
consulting, maintenance and contract operations,
and testing.
Research and development funding has been
substantially reduced as utilities in Canada and
worldwide move toward more competition and
substantial cost-cutting and as governments
reduce their R&D support. As a result, the
number and scope of Canadian R&D facilities
have declined substantially. Their role is to seek
a broader market internationally for specific
expertise. The role of the universities in Canada
in applied R&D is slowly changing to adapt to
their growing importance, both on a stand-alone
F O R E C A S T
basis and collaboratively with industrial
facilities.
Consulting in the 1990s has experienced similar
reductions, but with increased growth during the
past two years. The emphasis on the environment
along with the opening of the electricity market
and new load growth have stimulated substantial
recent growth in consultant activity. As utilities
cut internal staff to reduce embedded costs and
as staff ages, consultants are taking on an
expanding role in what formerly would have
been internal engineering work within utilities.
This work is positioning these consultants well
to work in partnerships with other consultants in
other countries.
Maintenance, contract operations and testing
were primarily internal functions within
Canadian utilities until the late 1990s. This is
expected to be a growing area of work both in
Canada and worldwide as utilities subcontract to
achieve lower costs. Simultaneously, pressure to
achieve maximum performance to maximize
profits and reduce costs with aging, older
equipment is expected to bring about increased
testing and maintenance. Given the number of
existing units and the increased numbers of new
combined cycles in North America and
worldwide, this field is growing. Canadian
companies have considerable expertise but face
competition from American companies,
particularly from the new combined cycle and
clean coal technologies.
regulatory requirements and at times even
champion various environmental causes. Many
new issues are on the horizon — greenhouse
gases, ground-level ozone, particulate matter
<2.5 microns and <10 microns (PM10/2.5),
hazardous air pollutants, mercury and
electromagnetic fields, to name only a few. In
many cases, the exact nature and extent of the
issue and the nature of the solution are
undefined. In some cases, the cost of
implementation can be very significant. The
ability of one company or province to move on
regulations within a competitive environment
can be limited.
2.2 Vision 2020
By 2020, energy providers will replace
Canadian electric and gas utilities. There will be
a convergence of electric generators, fossil fuel
suppliers and service companies.
Communication systems and computers will
develop into smart systems able to control the
production and end use of energy. Large
providers of bulk power will sell to direct
customers and aggregators. Other energy
providers will fill niche markets by taking
advantage of unique local conditions such as
availability of local fuel sources (landfill gas,
hydraulic storage, photovoltaic panels, biomass,
wind), remote customers and green power.
Thermal energy will become an important byproduct of electrical generation. The customer
will be able to choose from a wide array of
products and energy providers.
Environment
Environmental regulations are largely based on
issues and technology from no later than the
early 1990s. The environmental issues include
ground-level pollutant concentrations, acid rain
precursors, an initial approach to smog
reduction, polychlorinated byphenyls (PCBs)
and liquid effluents. The regulations are
designed to be reactive — solving a known,
well-defined problem that already exists.
Electric utilities endeavour to be
environmentally responsible. They follow
Changes in technology, regulations and
customer needs will provide a modest range of
possibilities by 2010. Looking to 2020, there
will be a wider range of possibilities as new
options, some not yet even imagined, become a
reality. As time passes, some concepts will
become obsolete or socially unacceptable, thus
narrowing the field of possibilities.
Because utility capital projects are often based
on a life cycle of 20 years or longer, without
monopoly support, risk will be increased.
9
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
Managing risk and maintaining a balanced
portfolio will be key business requirements.
Correctly gauging customer needs will be key to
future success, as customers will be able to
choose. The range of customer choices remains
to be seen and will be influenced by government
regulations and industry offerings.
In creating a vision for 2020 a number of
assumptions have been made:
• Electricity will be manufactured using fuel
and the price will vary with the price of fuel
(availability, security of supply, ease of use).
• Lower-emissions technology used in the
conversion of fuel to electricity will affect the
price of electricity through life cycle costing,
including the mitigation of environmental
impacts on health and climate change.
• The markets will be open to all those able to
meet governmental regulations regarding
safety, emissions and reliability.
• Customers will be able to choose their
supplier based on who best satisfies their
needs.
Customers
The main classes of customers will be
segmented by the priorities they place on the
products purchased — price/service packages, or
quality/reliability. These types of customers will
be found in each of the traditional groups of
residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
The cost of energy (electricity or thermal) will
be a main driver for customers. The markets will
be open to competition, and customers will be
able to switch between energy providers. For
customers looking for a supplier, the key
criterion will shift from reliability of supply to
ability to negotiate the best supply terms
possible. Energy providers will supply the needs
of that market, provided it is profitable to do so,
and adapt different technologies to meet their
needs.
10
R o a d m a p
Customers will also be segmented by how they
purchase power and who services them:
• large customers, who negotiate direct
purchase contracts with generators
• retail customers, who purchase power from
aggregators offering various packages
• sophisticated customers, who purchase energy
on the spot market through an independent
energy market typical of a futures market.
Direct customers will be the very large
corporate customers who typically consume
large quantities of capacity, use large quantities
of energy and take their electricity at higher
voltage levels. These customers will negotiate
contracts for capacity, energy and thermal
power. Bulk purchases based on a take-or-pay
scenario will provide for a cheaper overall price
but will require significant planning and
production flexibility. The blended rate
incorporating all forms of power purchases will
result in the lowest overall kilowatt-hour cost.
These large direct-purchase customers will be
the most sophisticated users and will blend their
power purchases based on firm contracts, spot
pricing, off-peak and interruptible pricing. Large
industrial customers may purchase thermal
energy in the form of steam or hot water. Some
generators will locate their generation assets
close to these customers to take full advantage
of thermal sales.
Aggregators will replace the municipal electric
utilities in providing electricity distribution
systems to large municipally sited retail and
industrial customers. Aggregators will sell their
packaged services to a broad range of
residential, commercial and industrial customers.
The significant difference between aggregators
and large customers is that they do not consume
the power themselves. They will have numerous
retail accounts, which, when totalled, amount to
a high capacity. Aggregators will have buying
clout and will purchase power from generators.
F O R E C A S T
They typically will buy at a higher transmission
voltage and will incorporate energy,
transmission and distribution charges.
Aggregators will shop for the best prices; the
difference between what they pay and sell it for
will be their profit.
Remote area and rural customers will be
smaller customers in low-density areas. Their
costs will be significantly higher due to
transmission and distribution costs. All customer
costs will be based on the cost of supply. There
will be no cross subsidies between markets, but
local governments will subsidize some of the
power costs to attract new businesses into the
area. Some generators will site their assets close
to these areas to take advantage of this captive
load and to reduce the transmission charges.
Transmission primarily will supply emergency
backup and stability. A number of smaller
generators using biomass and indigenous fuel
will fill niche markets. Competition will come
from advanced photovoltaic systems and
transportable fuels such as coal, liquefied natural
gas and propane.
The introduction of fuel cells and advanced
photovoltaic systems will allow some customers
to generate their own power. New service
suppliers will provide packaged units that supply
all electrical and thermal needs for the site.
These packages can be leased or purchased, with
maintenance packages and replacement units
available around the clock on short notice. They
will be remotely monitored and will have
sensors to indicate whether any problems have
occurred or are about to occur. Surplus energy
and capacity can be sold back to the local
aggregator.
Products
Products supplied to customers will meet
individual needs. Customers will be able to
choose from a wide range of products and will
be able to purchase a bundle of one or more of
the following:
• time-of-use energy
• capacity (peak and off-peak)
• interruptible power
• power quality
• reliability and security of supply including
storage
• ancillaries — VARS (volt–amperes reactive),
Reserve, Black Start
• thermal energy
• environmental credits
• fuel tolling and fuel reselling
• by-products created through the generation of
electricity
• power monitoring and management services
• risk management, price hedging and futures
markets
• green power
• watershed management.
These products may be purchased from
aggregators, generators or service suppliers.
Generators and power suppliers will provide the
infrastructure for many of the products listed.
There will be a greater array of products available to generators to achieve lowest overall
cost and to extend the useful life of existing
facilities. The options open to generators will
be repair, modify and upgrade, repower with
new equipment on existing sites, or build new
greenfield sites. Many existing facilities will
have reached or will be nearing the end of
their design life by 2020. Generators may
choose to extend the life of plants as long as
economically possible or to build new, hoping
to grandfather emissions levels to existing
standards and regulations.
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E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
Energy will be sold on the spot market, and
peak power will be much more expensive than
off-peak energy. Direct customers and
aggregators will negotiate power purchases
based on customer demand.
Summer and winter peaks will command the
highest price. Power purchasers will use
sophisticated weather models to determine
future pricing. Spring and fall prices will be
lower, when seasonal demand for heat and
cooling is lower. Aggregators may average the
energy price over the year for their customers
and may provide a price guarantee. Intelligent
bidirectional meters and the smart house concept
will enable loads to be shifted to off-peak
periods.
Electrical capacity will also be sold to industrial
direct demand customers. This arrangement will
primarily be for reliability, as industrial
customers will need to be sure that they will get
electrical power when needed. Negotiated rates
may be daily, weekly or yearly. Generators will
carefully balance capacity and energy sales to
maximize profit.
Low-cost surplus and interruptible power will be
available but may be shut down at any time, for
example, because of equipment failure or
because the generator has found a new customer
at a higher price.
Power quality services will expand for those
companies needing cleaner power than that
provided through the distribution network.
Conditioning will be done at the consumer site
rather than over the entire network. Fast-acting
controls will reduce the effect of voltage sags
and harmonics.
Reliability will be enhanced by supplying generation on-site, including standby generation,
and by storing power for short-term outages.
The service company may also dispatch these
standby generators when not required by the
customer.
12
R o a d m a p
There will be a market for ancillary services
such as VARS (volt–amperes reactive), Reserve
and Black Start, especially for local generators
that supply to local grids backed up by
transmission, although this may account for only
a fraction of the total capacity used.
Thermal energy will become an important byproduct of generation. Local developers of
district energy systems may contract for thermal
capacity. Cogeneration will result in higher
system efficiency and greater profit. Such
generation will be located in areas where
thermal energy use can be cost-effective.
Some companies may find it cheaper to
purchase environmental credits for their
emissions rather than clean up their own
facilities. Companies may be required to
purchase emissions allowances, and these costs
may be rolled into the price of energy generated.
Companies may purchase long-term contracts
for fuel and then sell it as prices increase.
Generators with the ability to switch fuels may
benefit by using the lowest-cost fuel to balance
emissions and lower costs.
The aggregators and service providers will rely
on intelligent power systems to forecast capacity
and energy consumption. Power consumption
will be managed locating the lowest-cost power
at that moment, switching discretionary loads to
off-peak periods or reducing peaks. Monitoring
systems will assess reliability of components,
self-diagnose problems and dispatch for service
when needed.
For many industrial customers and aggregators,
the change in power prices may pose a
significant financial risk. Insurance products will
be common for risk management and price
hedging.
Renewable power will gain a greater portion
of the market as new technologies become
available. Solar power, wind and hydrogen
systems will offer great potential for
F O R E C A S T
zero-emission generation systems. Emission
credits from the use of these systems may
offset other higher-emission generation assets or
reduce the cost, leading to more widespread use.
Suppliers
Various forces such as government regulations,
technology choices and environmental concerns
will shape suppliers and their products.
Customers will have a greater influence in a
deregulated competitive market and suppliers
will try to differentiate themselves by providing
customers with viable alternatives. Green power
such as solar and wind will be more costly but
its price will be competitive, since total life
cycle environmental impact costs will be
included. Technology choices will become
increasingly important, as generators purchase
permits allowing the production of greenhouse
gas, thus raising the cost of generation by
specific fuels.
Electric utilities in Canada will no longer have
any monopoly support. Provincial governments
will have sold all assets to private companies
and the market will become competitive. Many
companies will amalgamate and grow into
regional and global energy utilities. There will
be no geographic restrictions, and many
companies will grow into national suppliers. A
convergence of utility industries supplying
water, sewer, electricity, fuel and
telecommunications will evolve. Retail outlets
will become the customer point of contact and
lead to cross branding of products.
Independent power producers, self-generators
and cogenerators will compete in an open
market. Regulations will be set by government
bodies, and anyone meeting these minimum
requirements will be allowed to sell power.
Generators will make great strides to maintain
reliability of their assets, pushed by the
transmission and distribution systems, since
higher utilization ratios may result in higher
revenues. For a competitive supplier, the
primary criterion will be the lowest cost able to
meet the minimum reliability standard.
Fossil fuel generating plants will play a variety
of roles within different systems in Canada. In
Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia, fossil fuel generation systems will
play a base load role. In Ontario, fossil fuel
generating plants will vary from base load to
intermediate even to peaking. Coal will still be
an important fuel. Sequestration technologies
will allow central plants to remain competitive.
Large, high-efficiency hydro-electric generation
will be fully proven and fully utilized in Canada,
playing a significant role in British Columbia,
Manitoba, Québec, Newfoundland and
Labrador, Ontario and New Brunswick. Across
Canada, the total amount of power generated by
hydro-electricity will remain constant. New
capacity will be supplied by other technologies.
Industrial cogeneration will grow. Many of the
perceived regulatory and commercial barriers
that strongly discourage it will have been
eliminated. A service industry will grow to
supply cogeneration power, because many
industries will prefer to invest their funds in
their core businesses. As total electric power
consumption increases, the percentage of power
from renewable and cogeneration plants will
increase. Combined-cycle natural gas turbines
will see increased popularity as improvements in
efficiency and cost reductions occur. Boilers
may become fuel-flexible, being able to cofire
natural gas, coal and biomass depending on the
fuel price, availability and ability to meet
emissions regulations. Suppliers will provide
various technologies to reduce emissions.
The widespread use of combined-cycle natural
gas will continue to generate a major share of
the power generated. Its small footprint and
flexible fuel source will make it the generation
technology of choice for any new additions.
Combined cycle turbines will become an
alternative to repower some nuclear sites.
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E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
Environment
Environmental regulations will become
increasingly stringent, with restrictions on all
contaminants that impact on the ground, water
and air. There will be quantitative limits for all
types of ground-level pollutant concentrations,
greenhouse gases, ground-level ozone, particulates (PM10/2.5), hazardous air pollutants,
mercury, electromagnetic fields, acid rain precursors, PCBs and liquid effluents. Given the
emphasis on climate change and groundwater
quality, the regulations will increasingly try to
be proactive to forestall greater environmental
degredation. With an open market, environmental legislation will become international in
scope, sanctioned by restrictions on trade for
non-compliance.
Supply Characteristics
The distribution of electricity supply type will
vary throughout the country (Figure 2-2).
Hydro-electric generation will still predominate,
but with a lower share, because the overall
supply mix will increase while hydro generation
will remain relatively constant. Hydro-electric
R o a d m a p
generation in British Columbia, Manitoba
and Québec will continue to meet almost
100 percent of needs. Nuclear generation will
continue to supply a significant though smaller
portion compared with the 1990s, since many
older units will have been decommissioned and
no new units built. Fossil fuels, primarily coal,
will continue to be an important fuel, especially
in Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Renewable energy technologies including solar,
hydrogen, wind and biomass will provide a
relatively small percentage of the total supply
mix. Cogeneration/distributed generation will
grow as a result of the use of natural gas
combined-cycle plants.
Renewable energy and distributed generation
technologies will play a growing role in
Canada’s generation mix. New technologies will
reduce the initial costs of photovoltaic and
hydrogen systems. Large-scale fuel cell plants
will use hydrogen to produce green power.
Hydraulic storage technologies will enable
power to be saved for use in high-demand and
high-revenue periods. Distributed generation
will be cost-competitive, especially with
deferred distribution and transmission costs.
Figure 2-2. Canadian Electric Power Sources Forecast for 2020
Hydro 45.0%
Renewable energy
technologies 5.0%
Cogeneration 20.0%
Nuclear 13.0%
Fossil 17.0%
14
F O R E C A S T
2.3 Critical Technology Areas
Tables 2-1 to 2-4 outline the technologies and
drivers impacting generation according to major
fuel sources. Generation companies will also need
to focus on other technology areas if they are to
ensure reliability in 2020 (Table 2-5).
Table 2-1. Hydro Generation
Drivers
Critical technology area
Cost
Regulation
Equipment and environment
monitoring systems
• reduce maintenance cost
• extend life of equipment
reservoir greenhouse gas
monitoring
Turbine
• economical design for low
head generation
Hydraulic computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) modelling
• increase efficiencies of
water passages
Dam materials
• reduce construction costs
Risk management tools
and modelling
dam safety
Dam maintenance
• repair techniques
Fuel cell
• advanced materials required
Hydrogen storage and
distribution
• lower cost
Batteries
• reduced cost of materials
• long cycle life
safety
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T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
Table 2-2. Energy Storage Generation
Drivers
Critical technology area
Cost
Regulation
Pumped hydro
• reduce capital costs and find
suitable sites
environmental regulation
Batteries
• develop batteries with lower
materials and manufacturing
costs and with long cycle life
none
Hydrogen: electrolyzer/fuel cell
combination
• reduce materials and
manufacturing costs
new regulations for wide
hydrogen infrastructure and
safety
Superconducting magnetic
energy storage
• lower capital and operating
costs
regulations to handle very
low temperatures
Compressed air energy storage
• economical if naturally occurring
aquifers are available
none
Flywheel storage
• emerging flywheels using
superconducting bearings,
though expensive, are of
interest for small energy storage
nothing special
Capacitors and super capacitors
• ideal units for utility power
control applications and in
electrical vehicles
• new materials and lower
cost needed
none
Dams as large hydraulic batteries
• cheapest way of storing
electricity bought at cheap
rates at off-peak hours on
spot market
none
Storage for dispersed power
production units not connected
to grid
• energy production from wind or
solar farms, in regions not
connected to grid, can be stored
either in batteries or in
electrolyzer/fuel cell combination
none
16
F O R E C A S T
Table 2-3. Gas Generation
Drivers
Critical technology area
Improved efficiency
• combustion modelling
• flow models for turbine and boilers
• flame analysis
Material development
•
•
•
•
•
•
Maintenance and automation
• real-time sensors for combustion and control
• real-time condition analysis measurement techniques
Retrofit and by-product
• higher-intensity, low-volume burners
• additives introduced into combustion zone to reduce oxides
of nitrogen (NOx) and other pollutants
• use of combustion cycle as exothermic reaction to produce
new by-products
Sequestration and capture
• production of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon prior to
combustion
• absorption
• adsorption
• membrane
Environmental issues
• control of oxides of nitrogen (NOx)
• particulates (PM10, PM2.5)
high-temperature materials
high-efficiency, high-speed bearings
wear-resistant materials
low oxides of nitrogen (NOx) catalytic materials
high-speed, high-temperature lubrication
high-efficiency and lower-cost heat transfer components
17
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T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
Table 2-4. Coal Generation
Drivers
Critical technology area
Cost
Environment
Other
carbon dioxide
capture/sequestration
removal and disposal
at <$20/tonne carbon
monoxide
flexible for different
market conditions
Pulverized coal
Pressurized fluid bed
less than $45/megawatthour
Integrated coal gasification
combined cycle (ICGCC)
Zero emissions
Eco industrial park
Integrated coal gasification
fuel cell combined cycle
(ICGFCC)
18
less than $20/megawatthour thermal energy
zero net oxides of
sulphur (SOx) and of
nitrogen (NOx)
F O R E C A S T
Table 2-5. Other Critical Technology Areas
Critical technology area
Requirements
Generation technologies
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ultra supercritical pulverized coal (USCPC)
supercritical pressurized fluidized-bed combustor (SCPFBC)
simple
new cycles
flexible systems
high-efficiency fuel cells
oxygen/carbon dioxide systems
high-efficiency combustion turbine unit (CTU)
high-efficiency, top/bottom cycle
Controls
•
•
•
•
•
•
high-temperature gas analysis
high-temperature flame characterization
artificial intelligence
full automation
instantaneous coal carbon monoxide
low-cost continuous emission monitoring (CEM)
Environmental controls
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
oxides of sulphur (SOx)
oxides of nitrogen (NOx)
particulates (PM10, PM2.5)
mercury
volatile organic compounds
heavy metals
fly ash
bottom ash
liquid effluents
Asset management
• remaining life calculation
• life trending versus potential
• artificial intelligence
Materials
•
•
•
•
Maintenance
• output assessment
high-temperature strength
high-temperature corrosion
high-temperature flexible
high-catalyst concentrations
19
C a n a d i a n
3
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
ASSETS OPTIMIZATION — TRANSMISSION
3.1 Today’s Reality — A
Snapshot of the Industry
Transmission has been undervalued and
forgotten, but now is the enabler of deregulation.
It has been severed from its traditional role in
the vertically integrated electric utility structure
of the past and now is designed and continually
extended to meet the needs of captive
customers. Transmission has become a service
provider in an era of continuous change, liability
and new, diverse customer relationships.
Customers
For the present, customers are unchanged but
they are no longer captive. Customers now have
choices through open access. The service
provider must meet their needs and expectations
in terms of delivery cost, dependability and
sustainability. The goal of the transmission
service provider is to retain customers and
maximize the value of the asset while managing
risks and uncertainties and meeting
environmental regulations.
The electricity supply industry is restructuring to
focus on competition and customer choice. The
impact on transmission is enormous. Network
capacity is limited. Wheeling transactions are
increasing significantly. Congestion and price
volatility are increasing. Customers are
demanding improved power quality and
reliability. Customers require new products and
services such as ancillary services and
differentiated reliability. New facilities face
severe siting constraints, particularly in urban
areas. The risk of unreliability is already evident
as seen in public backlash (and lawsuits)
stemming from the power line cable failures in
Auckland and brownouts in the United States.
Consumer concerns may influence distributed
sources, thus stranding transmission assets and
lowering their value.
Products and Services
There is a critical need to evaluate transmission
system vulnerabilities and to develop market
and technological solutions to demand and
reliability issues. There is an urgent need to
control delivery costs while improving
reliability, availability and maintainability to
achieve sustainability and ensure that the assets
and necessary additions are there when needed,
to manage risks and uncertainties for customers
and shareholders, and to meet increasingly
stringent environmental and societal
requirements.
3.2 Vision 2020
20
As already noted, transmission is a service
provider. The products (or really the
technologies) of interest are those that support
and enable the service (Table 3-1).
Suppliers
Products today are acquired from discrete
vendors specializing in particular product areas.
Major equipment comes from one supplier,
protection and control equipment from another,
and telecommunications equipment from yet
another. Convergence will change all of this.
Suppliers too will tend toward becoming service
providers themselves and even partners with
their customers.
Customers
Customers in 2020 will still be the generating
companies and the consumers. The generating
companies will probably be much larger than
today as a result of consolidation. Whether
independent power producers will play a
significant role is a good question but is difficult
to answer at this time. Consumers will be the
major industrial accounts, commercial accounts,
distribution companies, and others such as cities,
municipalities and co-ops formed by residential
consumers.
F O R E C A S T
Table 3-1. Existing Technologies and Incremental Improvements Required
Driver
Existing technology (2000)
Incremental improvement to existing
technology (2005)
Management processes/
work force skills
• high level of human input
to decision making
• individualistic
• inconsistent
• reluctance to adopt new
technologies and take risks
• process-based organization
• empowered delivery teams working
within defined processes
• risk management techniques supported
by increasing levels of information
technology
Planning
• reactive
• deterministic
• proactive
• probabilistic
Operation
• reactive
• advanced supervisory control
and data acquisition systems
(SCADA)-based, limited
analytical tools
• proactive
• use of on-line knowledge and
management systems (e.g.,
dynamic security assessment)
• automatic scheduling, billing, settlement
Maintenance schedules
• time-based
• corrective
• off-line condition monitoring
• reliability centred
• on-line condition monitoring
Equipment utilization
• nameplate
• manufacturer’s
recommendations
• conservative
• dynamic circuit/equipment ratings
based on real-time monitoring
• increased real-time loading
of transmission assets
Specific technologies
• traditional monitoring
and protection
• multiple sensors
• limited integration
•
•
•
•
network monitor
incipient fault detection
enhanced modelling
life extension techniques for insulation
systems
• life extension techniques for tower steel
and woodpoles
• communications protocols for highspeed integrated information exchange
21
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T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
Table 3-2. Converging Technologies in 2020
Driver
Converging technologies
Management processes/
work force skills
• asset decisions based on real-time knowledge
acquisition, delivered to the right people at the right time,
supported by sophisticated risk management models and
artificial intelligence methods to determine level and timing of
investments
• highly automated quality and performance management
systems
Planning
• predictive, based on on-line monitoring and data mining
technologies
• automatic generation of electric system plan
Operation
• highly automated operation based on:
– knowledge systems
– sophisticated dynamic and thermal security models and
analysis
– delivery of premium reliability and power quality
Maintenance
• determined by knowledge systems, data mining, continuous
monitoring and modelling, integrated with work
management systems for optimal scheduling of resources
• residual and end-of-life equipment assessment
Equipment utilization
• automated (e.g., load system on basis of value
calculation, revenue versus cost of reduced life)
• significantly greater real-time loading of transmission assets
with minimal investment
Specific technologies
• high-temperature superconducting cables and transformers
• advanced polymer cable systems
• low-cost flexible alternating current transmission systems
(FACTS) devices for directed power flow/power quality
enhancement
• wide-area real-time analysis and optimized power flow
• advanced sensors
• advanced energy storage devices
• advanced meters
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F O R E C A S T
Products and Services
The technology used by transmission providers
in 2020 will be the convergence of information
technology, electronics and communications
(Table 3-2).
The transmission system of the future will be
a virtually automated, intelligent system
incorporating the following visionary
technologies and more:
systems require the reliability currently enjoyed
by protection systems. New solutions will be
needed to support the addition of real-time assetcondition monitoring. The transmission and
distribution system itself may be used as a lowspeed, telecommunications transmission
medium. Like the Internet model, power system
elements may have intrinsic addressing, and the
system may become aware of the elements
attached to it.
• single-point data acquisition and delivery
utilizing advanced sensors and IEDs
Processing and Decision
Making
• overlaid high-speed fibre-optic data network
Requirements will include more and faster
processing, and knowledge systems to make
decisions that currently require human operators.
These will involve the development of expert
systems and off-line and on-line data mining
technologies.
• self-addressing of components and customers
• advanced on-line analysis including triggered
data mining, for example, to predict faults
and outages.
Command/Control
Suppliers
Suppliers in 2020 will provide systems
representing the convergence of the traditional
power products and the concept of information
technology, electronics and communications.
The suppliers may operate and maintain the
systems on a merchant type basis but will at
least be responsible for maintenance.
3.3 Critical Technology Areas
Similar to those affecting intelligent power
delivery, the four main critical technology areas
will be dictated by the concept of information
technology, electronics and communications
(Table 3-3 below).
The need for more data and faster decision
making will reduce the role of the human
operator. The operator functions will be taken
over by automated processing and decision
making systems. The command/control function
will simply become the output of the decisionmaking process.
The control centre will be replaced by a
distributed system management system. Human
intervention will be required more on a
management-by-exception basis. With
increasing levels of sophistication in
management systems, the nature of the decisions
will approach that of business decisions, and
become much more separated from system
technical decisions.
Sensing/Monitoring
New technologies will be required to monitor
the status and condition of assets.
Telecommunications
Higher-speed digital transmission will become
more important as control and monitoring
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Table 3-3. Critical Technology Areas and Requirements
Requirements
Critical
technology area
Extrinsic technologies
Intrinsic technologies
Sensing/monitoring
• robotic sensors that sense changes
in physical condition of assets (e.g.,
robotic infrared cameras)
• fixed sensors that sense changes in
physical condition of assets
• distributed, synchronized intelligent
devices and remote terminal units
for integrated protection and control,
condition monitoring, metering and so on
• embedded optical fibres that
sense changes in physical
condition of assets
• assets made from smart
materials that sense changes
in themselves
• assets with IP-type (Internet
Protocol) addressing
capability
Telecommunications
• Internet-based monitoring and analysis
technologies
• distributed micro transmitter systems
• ultra high-speed, reliable wide area
networking
• highly reliable network security systems
• highly secure network and system
management systems
• low-speed IP networking over transmission
and distribution system
• standardized protocols
• interoperable intelligent devices (e.g.,
low environmental orbit satellite)
• embedded optical fibres that
facilitate communication
of asset condition data
• smart materials that
facilitate communication
of asset condition data
Processing and
decision making
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
24
ultra high-speed digital protective relaying systems
ultra high-speed, neural network-based control systems
integrated protection and control systems
data mining systems
knowledge systems
simulation systems
prediction systems
expert systems with inputs from all of above
advanced risk/technical/financial decision-making tools
F O R E C A S T
4
INTELLIGENT POWER DELIVERY
4.1 Today’s Reality — A
Snapshot of the Industry
Electric power systems around the world are
moving from regulated monopolies toward a
deregulated environment consisting of
competing power producers and power
marketers. Transmission and distribution
networks, however, remain as regulated
monopolies. The ability to operate competitively
in this environment while maintaining an
acceptable level of system security and
reliability is a major challenge in electric
energy delivery.
Customers
Current electricity rate structures and conditions
of electricity supply offer residential and
commercial customers few choices. There are
neither financial incentives to shift their daily
consumption patterns to off-peak periods, nor
are there financial incentives to accept lower
power reliability. Such incentives are available
only to large industrial consumers. Consequently, large quantities of electricity are
consumed during peak periods for activities such
as water heating, clothes washing and clothes
drying, some of which can conceivably be
shifted to off-peak hours.
Products and Services
Until recently, large regional electricity
monopolies in Canada provided integrated
electricity generation, transmission and
distribution. While demand was growing rapidly,
their focus was primarily on large projects that
offered economies of scale in the production and
delivery of electricity.
Distribution of electricity at the local level has
been the responsibility of large utilities or of
publicly owned municipal entities. The latter
purchase their power from the large utilities, and
may generate some of their own. Both have had
a monopoly in selling directly to their customers
at regulated rates that do not vary with time of
day. Moreover, the quality of the electricity is
the same for all customers.
The existing distribution systems are a mixture
of overhead and underground wires to the
consumer. Electricity consumption is measured
by analog meters at the consumer site, which are
manually read on a regular basis. Connection
and disconnection of service is also manual, and
is done at the consumer site. Utilities rely on
customers to report power failures and the
location of these failures before repair crews are
dispatched. Customers must contact the utilities
by telephone to learn the status of power
restoration in their area.
Suppliers
The transmission of electricity from generator to
customer is managed by control centres. In these
control centres, human operators make dispatch
control decisions based on:
• transaction requests from utilities, energy
providers and power marketers
• network outage requests for maintenance and
construction
• off-line load forecasts
• pre-established system security limits.
Their objectives are to operate the system as
economically as possible while still maintaining
system security and safety.
As the complexity of these systems grows, the
role of the operator is becoming more difficult
and stressful. This is resulting in lower system
security and reliability as well as higher
electricity wastage.
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4.2 Vision 2020
To develop a focus for its discussions on
intelligent power delivery, the working group
looked into the future and developed the
following outcome statement:
R o a d m a p
• choice of generation source (e.g., green
power)
• price they are willing to pay for different
grades of power quality.
Products and Services
It is 2020. Canadian utilities are
operating very successfully as net
exporters of electricity in a deregulated
North American electricity market by
overcoming system and environmental
constraints. Much of its success is due
to extensive automation of the
purchase, generation and delivery
of power. This automation has been
fostered by the development of
intelligent equipment and systems by
Canadian suppliers, who themselves
have become world leaders in the
supply of some of these products.
Customers are satisfied with both the
choices and reliability of electricity
supply.
Customers
In 2020, industrial, commercial and residential
customers will be able to select the electricity
service provider that best meets their needs and
expectations. Customers will be able to change
energy service providers as more attractive
products and services, from their perspectives,
appear on the market.
Some of the choices that customers may have to
consider in selecting their electricity supplier of
choice include:
• price versus reliability of supply
• cost/benefit of allowing the utility to control
the time-of-day during which certain
appliances can operate (demand-side
management)
• price they are willing to pay for level of
customer service and response to trouble calls
26
The products and services offered will reflect
the consumer choices listed above. In return,
customers will face the following implications
of their choices.
• The reliability of electricity supply will be a
trade-off between profit maximization and the
contractual obligations of the service provider
with its customers. Customers who opt for the
cheapest rates can expect to be the first to
lose their service during power shortages.
• Demand-side management will require a
spectrum of controls that require significant
development and implementation investments
combining different telecommunication
technologies with power delivery
technologies. For residential customers, this
can be seen as home automation that includes
the remote control of certain electricity loads,
automatic meter reading, remote
disconnect/reconnect of service and
monitoring the health of major appliances.
Ultimately, the customers will pay for these
investments; therefore, the convenience and
savings from demand-side management will
have to justify the cost.
• Electricity service providers will weigh the
expense of providing more sophisticated
customer call-taking facilities against the
level of service required to attract and retain
customers.
• Green power (solar, wind, biomass, etc.) may
be available from certain service providers,
probably at a premium.
• The highest levels of power quality will come
at a premium, requiring the installation of
suitable hardware for custom power, as well
as uninterruptible power.
F O R E C A S T
Suppliers
The quality of the electricity provided to
customers will be highly dependent on the
transmission and distribution sector. This sector
will be faced with the following related
challenges:
• asset condition monitoring, such as line
temperature and sag and tower rusting
• system condition monitoring, including
function, limits and performance of the
interconnected transmission and distribution
system
• supply and demand monitoring, including
translation of market information into systemuseful information
• fault condition monitoring, including
enhancement of existing devices to monitor
condition of equipment such as breakers,
transformers, insulators, etc.
• fault condition prediction, which will use
asset condition monitoring to predict possible
faults and take anticipatory corrective actions
• problem condition monitoring, which will
diagnose undesirable system conditions
resulting from unusual supply/demand
conditions that may lead to generation/load
rejection
• problem condition prediction, including the
ability to predict undesirable system
conditions and to take anticipatory corrective
actions
• information and knowledge sources,
including enhancement of current databases
for real-time/near real-time knowledge
provision
• command/control, including further
automation that changes the role of the
operator
• processing and decision making, using
automated, high-speed, wide-area control and
protection when needed, or slower speed
where there is sufficient time and a need to
use advanced techniques for decision making.
Market Drivers
Understanding the growing challenges faced by
transmission and distribution requires a look at
the emerging market drivers, namely:
• deregulation and competition in electricity
generation and supply
• re-regulation of transmission and distribution
based on profit incentives
• distributed generation
• demanding customers
• environmental constraints
• advances in information technology.
Economic and Environmental
Impact
These drivers are expected to have the following
impacts on the electricity sector as a whole:
• As utilities carry minimal power reserves, the
transmission and distribution systems will
become more susceptible to power outages
over the short term.
• Whereas deregulation will attract an
increasing number of power marketers and
electricity providers, it will place more
demands on the operations of transmission
and distribution.
• As the inadequacies of existing transmission
and distribution systems for cost-effective
operation become more evident, information
needs for load forecasting, system security
assessment and current status will increase.
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• Because of economics and environmental
constraints, the addition of transmission line
capacity will be more challenging, thus
putting the owners of transmission and
distribution systems under pressure to take
greater risks by pushing assets harder.
Customers
Customers believe that a move away from large,
regulated monopolies to a more privatized and
competitive environment will provide them with
the benefits they are looking for. These include:
• improved reliability of supply and fast
restoration after an outage
• option of different grades of power quality at
different costs
• option of different levels of reliability of
supply at different costs.
Customers see the electricity sector as one that
should be able to offer them choices, such as:
• ability to shop around for best deals
• customer load management to optimize costs
• freedom to choose the energy source (e.g.,
green power) and exercise environmental
responsibility
• better information during power outages
• power conditioning
• combined buy/sell arrangements.
System
At the distribution level, the demand is growing
to provide easy market access to smaller-scale
generators that are often located near the users.
These autonomous or independent power
producers, some of whom are operating
cogeneration facilities, are demanding the right
to sell their electricity to consumers as well as to
purchase electricity when they need it. The
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impact of local electricity generation on the
transmission and distribution networks will be
significant.
4.3 Critical Technology Areas
Similar to those affecting transmission (see
section 3.3 above), the four main critical
technology areas will be dictated by the concept
of information technology, electronics and
communications (Table 4-1).
Sensing/Monitoring
New technologies will be required to monitor
the status and condition of assets, including
lines, towers, poles, transformers, breakers and
buswork. Also, new approaches to protection
and control will be driven by market pressures
to make more intelligent decisions based on
wider system information. As well, new
information collection systems will be required
for supply and demand.
Telecommunications
Internet-based and higher-speed digital
transmission will become more important as
control and monitoring systems require the
reliability currently enjoyed by protection
systems. New telecommunications solutions will
be needed to support asset condition monitoring.
The transmission and distribution system itself
may be used as a low-speed telecommunications
transmission medium. Like the Internet model,
power system elements may have intrinsic
addressing and the system may become aware of
the elements attached to it. Such a system may
also make distribution automation more costeffective for load and outage management,
power quality control and lower electricity
losses. The barriers to distributed automation
will be its high cost, lack of a functional system
architecture and the lack of industry standards.
Process and Decision Making
Intelligent power delivery will require more
processing, faster processing and knowledge
F O R E C A S T
Table 4-1. Critical Technology Areas and Requirements
Requirements
Critical
technology area
Extrinsic technologies
Intrinsic technologies
Sensing/monitoring
• robotic sensors that sense changes
in physical condition of assets (e.g.,
robotic infrared cameras)
• fixed sensors that sense changes in
physical condition of assets
• distributed, synchronized intelligent
devices and remote terminal units
for integrated protection and control,
condition monitoring, metering and so on
• embedded optical fibres that
sense changes in physical
condition of assets
• assets made from smart
materials that sense changes
in themselves
• assets with IP-type (Internet
Protocol) addressing
capability
Telecommunications
• Internet-based monitoring and analysis
technologies
• distributed micro transmitter systems
• ultra high-speed, reliable wide area
networking
• highly reliable network security systems
• highly secure network and system
management systems
• low-speed IP networking over transmission
and distribution system
• standardized protocols
• interoperable intelligent devices (e.g.,
low environmental orbit satellite)
• embedded optical fibres that
facilitate communication
of asset condition data
• smart materials that
facilitate communication
of asset condition data
Processing and
decision making
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ultra high-speed digital protective relaying systems
ultra high-speed, neural network-based control systems
integrated protection and control systems
data mining systems
knowledge systems
simulation systems
prediction systems
expert systems with inputs from all of above
advanced risk/technical/financial decision-making tools
systems able to make decisions that currently
require human operators. It will also require
tools to address the increasing amount of
uncertainty and potential for upsets, created by
the open market and much more distributed
generation. This will involve the development of
advanced knowledge-based technologies such as
neural nets, fuzzy logic and data mining
required to develop expert systems.
Command/Control
The need for more data and faster decision
making will change the role of the human
operator. Many operator functions will be taken
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over by automated processing and decision
making systems, and the operator will have
access to better advisory tools. The
command/control function will simply become
the output of the decision making process.
The control centre will be replaced by a
distributed system management system. Human
intervention will be required more on a
management-by-exception basis. With
increasing levels of sophistication in
management systems, the nature of the decisions
will approach that of business decisions, and
will become much more separated from system
technical decisions.
R o a d m a p
Figure 4-1. Development Process for
Transmission and Distribution
Develop functional
architecture
Define functions and
their relationships
Define functional requirements
for each function
Conclusions
Canadian electric utilities will be faced with
significant challenges in deciding on the levels
of automation required to remain competitive.
They will have to decide not only what
functions to automate, but also in what order. In
this context, the electric utilities that come out
ahead will be those that develop a
comprehensive and integrated vision, and
acquire the best tools to achieve this vision.
Canadian utilities and Canadian industry have
an opportunity for collaboration in the
development of a vision as part of the next
phase of the Industry Canada Technology
Roadmap initiative. The steps in the process that
may be followed to achieve this vision are
shown in Figure 4-1.
Once the vision has jointly been established,
Canadian suppliers will face significant
challenges in deciding on which technologies to
pursue in anticipation of new market demands.
In developing these new technologies, Canadian
companies as much as possible should take
advantage of existing government-supported
R&D capabilities such as the universities,
Centres of Excellence and industry-focussed
collaborations such as PRECARN.
30
Identify gaps (data supply,
technologies, standards, interfaces
missing/new functions)
Technology areas that should be considered by
Canadian companies for development include:
• simulation algorithms for load flow, stability
and dynamic security
• Internet-based communications for both
monitoring and analysis
• transmission and distribution data
management systems that can utilize
advanced knowledge-based technologies as
they become available
• intelligent operations and maintenance
systems for monitoring asset/system
conditions for analysing the state of the
system and for providing decision support
• participation in international initiatives to
develop international standards.
F O R E C A S T
5
END-USE EFFICIENCY AND CONVERGENCE
5.1 Today’s Reality — A
Snapshot of the Industry
Electricity use is synonymous with industrial
growth. For decades in industrial countries,
electricity growth in demand has closely tracked
economic growth. Today, an advanced
information society, computer-aided design and
manufacturing techniques and lifestyle changes
all require greater, high-quality electricity
supply. The energy needed for these activities
cannot be met from sources other than
electricity.
Electricity use in general promises less energy
use, less pollution, better indoor air quality, less
material waste, better-quality products, greater
process intensification, remote operation of
manufacturing, healthier work environments,
and greater compatibility with advanced sensors
and controls, neural networks, computer
controls, robotics and decentralized
manufacturing operations.
The residential sector uses electricity to operate
appliances (ranges, refrigerators, etc.), lights,
entertainment systems and air-conditioning in
some locations. Some residential dwellings also
heat the domestic water with electricity,
although the majority use natural gas where
available. In Canada, a small percentage of
residences are heated with electricity, most with
electric resistance and a few with heat pumps.
The penetration of electric heating varies widely
by region, being high in Québec and low in the
Prairies. In the highrise residential market,
electric resistance heating dominates in some
regions (e.g., British Columbia, Québec), but is
a minor player in others (e.g., Ontario at
20 percent). When purchasing electricity, the
residential user has no options whatsoever.
There is only one supplier offering only one
purchase plan.
The commercial sector includes a number of
diverse operations — offices, schools,
restaurants, stores, etc. These customers use
electricity primarily for light and some aspect of
space conditioning (cooling, ventilation and
sometimes heating). Some commercial
operations also require hot water but usually this
is supplied using natural gas. Commercial and
institutional users must buy electricity from the
local monopoly and there are very few or no
purchasing options offered. Power quality has
not been an issue in the commercial sector.
The industrial sector includes primary industry
and manufacturing. While a lot of electricity is
used by industry, it is a minor expense in most
operations relative to the cost of production,
capital expenditure, etc. (except certain
electricity-intensive processes like the
production of aluminum). Generally, industrial
processes use heat generated from other fuel
sources, although as industries modernize, more
electrotechnologies (e.g., microwave) are being
used to increase their productivity and
competitive position.
The bulk of industrial electricity use is to power
electric motors to drive machines, conveyers,
compressors and ventilation systems. Of course,
lighting systems are also electric powered.
While industry must also deal with only one
electricity supplier, it is able to negotiate special
rates. This is possible because industries are
large users and how they use electricity can have
an impact on the supplier’s system. Special rates
like interruptible power and time-of-day usage
are offered to this sector. Industry also has the
ability to select where to locate its plants and
thus is able to negotiate special rates. Generally
speaking, electricity supply to industry is
reliable and inexpensive, and its purchase does
not require a lot of effort from industry. Power
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quality is starting to become an issue in recent
years in some computer-dependent industries.
In all three sectors, the purchase of electricity
requires very little thought. There are very few
choices to be made because electricity is cheap.
There is little incentive to increase energy
efficiency. Although a number of utilities offer
programs for energy efficiency, these programs
have been scaled back in recent years, and few
offer rebates or incentives for energy efficiency.
At present, electricity plays a very limited role
in the transportation sector (mainly in mass
transit systems) although battery, fuel cell and
hybrid (fuel/electric) vehicles are beginning to
appear. While battery and fuel cell vehicles are a
long way from economic viability, hybrids are
starting to appear in the marketplace. Hybrids do
not need to be charged from the power grid.
However, the on-board electrical storage can be
used to manage the electrical demand of a
residential building. Very little “green”
technology (solar, windmills, etc.) is currently
used. This is expected to change as consumers
demand and regulators mandate environmentally
friendly electricity supply. Both green and
natural gas generation are driven in part by
climate change considerations and the effort to
reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. The
growth of green electricity in the near term is
limited by cost considerations.
There are a number of emerging issues that have
a strong influence on the future electricity
market. The deregulation of telecom and the
growth of the Internet is increasing the
availability of information, allowing new
approaches to be taken. For example, a company
may be able to consolidate its energy operations
from far-flung locations and act as a single
customer.
The emergence of a world economy is resulting
in the merger of companies with strong
economic control and the ability to move
operations around the globe to wherever it is
most advantageous (e.g., airlines, manufacturers,
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R o a d m a p
service companies). It is likely that we are at the
beginning of the globalization of the electric
production industry. Globalization is creating a
shifting world balance that will result in many
changes to the status quo (e.g., today, 30 percent
of the world is without electricity).
The 1990s saw the opening of the electricity
market to competition, while the natural gas
market was deregulated in the 1980s. Many
jurisdictions started to move toward an open
market and a few completed this in the 1990s.
However, the bulk of competition will occur in
the period 2000 to 2010. Consequently, the user
will have to know a lot more about how to use
electricity and all forms of energy including heat
in order to evaluate different “deals” being
offered by different suppliers. Cogeneration of
heat and electric power will offer an advantage
for some users. A new group of agents may arise
to help users understand and negotiate the best
deal. The incentive to use energy efficiently and
to optimize the time of use will be high. Pricing
will be based on a spot market, which may be
very volatile, with large fluctuations in shortterm pricing. The user will be looking for
arrangements to provide the lowest price and at
the same time protect against price swings.
5.2 Vision 2020
Electricity will continue to be the energy source
of choice. There will be greater “electrification
of economies,” with a concomitant demand for a
wide range of all electric end-use technologies,
hybrid electricity/fossil fuel technologies, and
associated information processing,
communication and control technologies.
The nature of these technologies will be
influenced significantly by continuing advances
in information processing and communication
technologies and by the convergence in the
delivery of energy services. Another major
influence will be the ongoing deregulation of
electricity generation, which may result in
volatile energy pricing and raise questions
about reliability.
F O R E C A S T
A number of information sources confirm that
the key factors operating up to 2020 and even
further will be:
• globalization, driven by the overall
electrification and telecommunication
connections throughout the world, which
already have had a profound effect on all
aspects of economic life, manufacturing and
customer service and which may accelerate in
the coming decades
• the enormous possibilities offered by fast
communication such as the Internet, which
are making the financial market ever more
volatile, with investors putting their money
wherever they want at the touch of a button
and with very strong focusses on shareholder
value and on the equity market
• rules and regulations regarding risk and
liabilities related to environmental impact,
health and safety issues, and protection of
shareholder value.
Sectoral Visions
Over the next two to five decades, buildings will
have integrated intelligent management systems
that will be responsive to approaching
meteorological conditions, maximize the use of
natural heat and light sources, and minimize
emissions. They will likely have some
combination of in-building cogeneration, energy
storage and/or feedback to the grid, central
alternating current/direct current (AC/DC)
conversion for feedback to the grid, conversion
of grid power to direct current for power quality
improvement, capability to correct for low
power quality from the grid, in-building waste
processing and recycling, in-home virtual reality
entertainment systems, and high-efficiency
integrated systems for space conditioning, hot
water, lighting and power needs, and highefficiency direct current appliances.
Industry will feature highly computerized
manufacturing, manufacturing for recycling and
reuse, and flexible manufacturing for many
small, specialized products. Companies will
have low-discharge/closed-cycle plants and
highly integrated, intensified process/plant
facilities utilizing all waste streams, greater use
of bioprocesses and advanced biomaterials,
greater in-plant generation of electricity, greater
intensity of end-use electrotechnologies and
natural gas end-use technologies, with greater
capacity to improve power quality in a low
power quality grid scenario and to feed excess
power back to the grid.
Transportation will see technologies such as
intelligent vehicle highway systems, hybrid
electric/gasoline vehicles, fuel cell-powered
vehicles with hydrogen from reforming of
natural gas or electrolysis or from reforming of
gasoline specially made for fuel cells and
considerably cleaner gasoline and dieselpowered vehicles. From a systems perspective,
there will be greater integration of transportation
systems through urban design and redesign,
allowing easier and less energy and time to
travel to work, electrified multimodal public
transportation systems and less use of private
automobiles. There will also be a reduction of
transportation during peak hours, with more
people working at home (including operating
manufacturing facilities from the home).
For the buildings, industrial and transportation
sectors, a variety of power systems will include
“mini-grids,” no grid connection at all for some
buildings and industries, “energyplexes” that
provide heat, power, chemicals and materials,
“eco-industrial parks” that integrate industry and
buildings by providing heat and power from
cogeneration plants and processing wastes, and
“sustainable communities” that integrate
buildings, industry, transportation, municipal
services and land use and that provide their own
electricity and heat.
These systems are predicated on highly
sophisticated sensors, controls and electronic
management systems. A unified, digitally
controlled transmission grid will move large
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amounts of power precisely and reliably
throughout North America while managing a
rapidly growing number of commercial
electricity transactions.
Market Drivers
Globalization, market saturation and a strong
focus on shareholder value in a large number of
industries will force low-cost manufacturing.
From an energy standpoint, this means a strong
focus on reductions in energy costs. Maintaining
low energy costs will be very important and will
be possible in a deregulated market. A
supporting factor will be immediate access
through information systems to energy cost
information on the spot market regarding, for
example, low-cost energy producers, those
providing real-time customer services such as
pricing flexibility, customer energy profiles,
rapid power failure diagnostics and reporting,
and energy management systems.
Low-cost products, environmental and
demographic pressures will also favour energy
efficiency in the long run. Providers of services
and technologies will then be favoured in the
following areas: advanced energy analysis,
process integration, and hybrid energy systems
and technologies. This last item embodies the
concept of multiple energy sources — for
example, gas and electricity combined —
whereby the overall energy efficiency of systems
will be higher than the one based on a single
source of energy.
R o a d m a p
These market drivers will rank differently according to the market segment chosen (Table 5-1).
Despite investigating several different ways of
segmenting the market, the working group
finally settled on the traditional way based on
residential, commercial/institutional and
industrial segments.
5.3 Critical Technology Areas
This section is designed to help the Canadian
electric power industry better prepare itself for
impending competition during the period to
2020 by identifying the critical technologies
associated with end-use efficiency and
convergence, based on market demand. These
technologies are expected to be required either
to meet new customers’ demands or to match the
competition during the period concerned.
The chain of activities is as follows:
Customer Needs ➔ Functional Needs ➔
Supporting Technologies
For each customer need, the functional needs
and supporting technologies are outlined below
in Tables 5-2, 5-3 and 5-4 for each of residential,
commercial/institutional and industrial market
sectors. Functional need translates the customer
needs in terms of general technical requirements, without limiting the technology to our
present knowledge. Supporting technologies
define more precisely the functional need and
identify some technologies that appear to be
Table 5-1. Customer Needs for Three Market Sectors, in Order of Decreasing Priority
Residential sector
Commercial/institutional sector
Industrial sector
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
34
reliable energy
low energy cost
indoor air quality and health
reliable telecommunications
reduced environmental impact
compact energy systems
low energy cost
reliable energy
indoor air quality
integrated systems
including telecommunications
• intelligent energy management
• reduced environmental impact
reliable energy
reduced production cost
increased productivity
observance of environmental
regulations
F O R E C A S T
Table 5-2. Residential Sector Supporting Technologies
Customer needs
Functional needs
Supporting technologies
Reliable energy
• heating and cooling using:
– bi- or multi-energy systems
(electricity, oil, gas)
– thermal storage (hot and cold)
• on-premise electricity production
and storage using combined
heat and power
• new design/packaging for:
– furnace using electricity and oil or gas
– thermal storage using solid
materials (chemical reaction or
adsorption) or phase change
materials (water/ice or others)
• small-scale generation: cogeneration,
micro turbine, fuel cells, battery,
photovoltaic, use neighbourhood
electric vehicle as backup power
Low energy cost
• energy management:
– auto-load control delaying nonessential appliances
– multi- (bi) energy system: autoselect electricity or fossil fuel
according to price (time of day)
– data acquisition on usage (kilowatthour or fuel) by main appliances
• flexible and user friendly control
devices (electricity, fuel and rate
choice), capable of communication
system for price signal and
data acquisition options
• energy (electric and thermal) storage
Indoor air quality
and health
• adequate indoor air quality using
advanced heating ventilation and
air conditioning systems, depending
on occupation, number of occupants
and time of day
• reduce particles in suspension in
indoor air: no combustion inside
house
• reduce allergy-caused pollution:
better housing material and furnishing
• reduce ozone production
• better regulations
• heating ventilation and air conditioning
system with advanced control
(adaptive or neuronic) and advanced
filters to meet IAQ requirements
• develop new furnace design
• develop new housing and
furnishing material to reduce
allergy problems
Reliable telecommunications
• reliable telecommunication
• adequate quality of electricity supply
(continuity, power quality and EMC)
to assure remote control, automated
housing, banking, security, remote
meter reading, necklace alarm for
elderly and infirm
• reliable telecommunication systems
with backup
• power electronics with electric
energy storage
• power supply for individual
applications and/or integrated
to house wiring
Lower
environmental
impact
• low energy requirement with
minimum emissions
• option to select green power
• heat recovery systems (heat pumps)
from appliances and water usage to
assist water and space heating
• on-premises green power generation
using photovoltaic panels, thermal, solar
• new material for compact thermal
insulation
Compact energy
systems
• development of miniaturization
systems for water heating, and
space heating and cooling
• development of compact units
using new materials
35
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
Table 5-3. Commercial/Institutional Sector Supporting Technologies
Customer needs
Functional needs
Supporting technologies
Low energy cost
• energy management
• flexible and usage-friendly control
• auto load control delaying nondevices (electricity, fuel and rate choice),
essential equipment
capable of communication system
• multi- (bi) energy system: auto select
for price signal and data acquisition
electricity or fossil fuel according to
options
price (time of day)
• energy (electric and thermal)
• data acquisition on usage (kilowatt-hours
storage
or fuel) by main equipment or usage
• develop more energy-efficient
equipment and appliances
Reliable energy
• heating and cooling using:
– bi- or multi-energy systems
(electricity, oil, gas)
– thermal storage (hot and cold)
– cogeneration (electricity and heat)
• on-premises electricity production and
storage: combined heat and power
• new design/packaging for:
– furnace using electricity,
oil, gas
– thermal storage using solid materials
(chemical reaction or adsorption) or
phase change materials
(water/ice or others)
• small-scale generation (cogeneration):
micro turbine, fuel cells, battery, use
neighbourhood electric vehicle as backup
power
Indoor air quality
• adequate indoor air quality using
advanced HVAC systems depending
on equipment used, number of
occupants and time of day
• reduce allergy-caused pollution
• better building material and
furnishings
• heating ventilation and air conditioning
(HVAC) system with advanced control
(adaptive or neuronic) and advanced
filters to meet IAQ requirements
• develop new building and furnishing
materials to reduce allergy problems
Integrated systems • reliable telecommunications
including
• adequate quality of electricity
telecommunications
supply (continuity, power quality and
electromagnetic compatibility (EMC))
to assure reliable communication
• reliable telecommunications systems
with independent backup
• power electronics with electric
energy storage
• power supply for individual applications
and/or integrated to building wiring
Intelligent energy
management
• advanced information and
communication systems
• intelligent interface between demand
(customer) and production
• information system coupling
customer with
commerce/institution
Reduced
environmental
impact
• control pollution from hazardous
waste
• recycle, wastes treatment
• option to select green power
• variety of electrotechnologies
• green power: thermal, solar,
photovoltaic panels
36
F O R E C A S T
Table 5-4. Industrial Sector Supporting Technologies
Customer needs
Functional needs
Supporting technologies
Reliable energy
• device to assure continuity of
electricity supply of adequate quality
(power quality and electromagnetic
compatibility)
• reduce effect of power failure and
disturbance
• uninterruptible power supply for
critical process: battery, fuel cells
• on-premises electricity production and
storage: combined heat and power
• electric energy storage technologies
(short disturbance): series compensators,
ultra capacitors, flywheels
• emergency power supply for individual
applications (power electronics with
electric energy storage) and/or
integrated to building wiring
• direct current applications
• adapt fuel cells design
• cogeneration
Reduced
production
cost
• development of new materials:
ceramics, composite materials,
new compact thermal insulation
material, surface treatment
• energy management:
– multi- (bi) energy system: auto-select
electricity or fossil fuel according
to price (time of day)
– auto-load control delaying nonessential process (on/off option)
– energy consumption profile
(kilowatt-hours or fuel) by process
• more energy-efficient process
• better heat recovery
• intelligent and adaptive control devices
to select different type of energies
(energy storage and load shifting), and
to provide appropriate data acquisition
• efficient motors and drives (variablespeed drive) for pumps, compressors and
blowers
• data acquisition options
• heat pumps to recover heat
from various processes to assist
heating requirements
Increased
productivity
• customized manufacturing
• intelligent interface between
customer and manufacturing plant
• use of electrotechnologies to facilitate
process control, product quality
(Table 5-7)
• adaptation of breakthrough process
technology
• flexible manufacturing process
• information system coupling customer
with manufacturing plant
• efficient motors and drives (variable-speed
drive) for pumps, compressors and
blowers
• appropriate electrotechnologies by
industry sectors (Table 5-7)
Meet
environmental
regulations
• recycle effluents and waste
• change processes to produce less
waste
• real-time sampling and analysing of
contaminants
• replace processes by lower
greenhouse gas emitters
• appropriate electrotechnologies
by industrial sectors (Table 5-7)
37
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
required to respond to the need. This prediction
is based on the present knowledge and our
extrapolation into the future. Breakthrough
technologies may go beyond the extrapolation,
and cannot be predicted. The term “supporting
technologies” is preferred to “critical
technologies” because working group members
have not evaluated the degree of development or
maturity of each technology. The repetition
among the tables is intentional to present a
complete picture for each sector.
Now that the supporting technologies have been
identified for each of the three market sectors,
the various required technologies needed (called
critical technologies) are then regrouped by
major applications. Critical technologies are
expected to be essential for the end users or
equipment manufacturers to meet customer
needs as restated by the supporting technologies.
A critical technology can be either developed or
purchased, or a new breakthrough technology
may come on the market.
In summary, the chain of activities to identify
the critical technologies is as shown
schematically below:
Customer Needs ➔ Functional Needs ➔
Supporting Technologies ➔ Critical Technologies
Since there are some similarities in the required
technologies for the residential and commercial/
institutional sectors, they are combined.
Moreover to ease the consultation, they are
listed by major application or customer need in
Table 5-5; consequently, there are a few
duplications in the list of critical technologies.
For the industrial sector (Table 5-6), no attempt
is made to identify each specific critical
technology at this time, because of the very
38
R o a d m a p
wide diversity of industrial processes and
technologies. Functional needs and supporting
technologies are identified as shown in Table 5-7.
To identify a critical technology for a given
industrial subsector with some precision, the
input (or consultation) from end users
themselves, equipment manufacturers or their
associations is required. This more in-depth
exercise is expected to be carried out in the next
phase of the technology roadmap exercise.
The approach used by the working group in this
study appears to be a reasonable method for
identifying a list of critical technologies that are
expected to be required, based on customers’
perceived needs. At this stage, there is no strong
attempt to restrict the list, since it is felt that a
proper assessment of the required technologies
should involve the concerned players
themselves; that is, end users, equipment
manufacturers and/or their respective
associations. These findings should therefore be
validated by a survey or additional consultations
among these players.
In the meantime, this list of technologies is a
good tool to start the consultations with a view
to validating which technologies are really
critical, then to decide which ones should be
developed in Canada rather than purchased
elsewhere. For these consultations, grouping of
industrials with similar technological concerns
may be a good approach, since the results will
be focussed on their specific problems.
Although convergence has not been specifically
addressed, the impact of convergence has been
considered in the evaluation of customer needs
and in the identification of the required
technologies.
F O R E C A S T
Table 5-5. Residential and Commercial/Institutional Sector Critical Technologies
Customer needs
Critical technologies
Reliable energy
• multi- or bi-energy furnaces with self-contained backup power source (e.g.,
advanced batteries, redox flow battery, micro turbines, fuel cells or electric vehicle)
• flexible combined heat and power systems (cogeneration) of appropriate capacities
• compact and efficient thermal storage (hot and cold) using solid or phase change
materials
• internal combustion engines, micro turbines, Sterling engines and fuel cells to meet
lighting, heating and cooling simultaneously
• for short power disturbances: power quality control devices and electric energy
storage (e.g., low-cost series compensators, ultra capacitors, flywheel)
• real-time power failure diagnostics
Low energy cost
• intelligent and adaptive (user friendly) control devices to select different types of
energy based on rates (including energy storage and load shifting)
• higher-efficiency appliances such as combined water/space heater/heat recovery
ventilator: (e.g., heat pumps and ground source heat pump for space heating and
cooling, and water heating)
• communication systems to get price signal and data acquisition
• district heating and cooling
• on-premises combined heat and power systems (internal combustion engines,
micro turbines, Sterling engines and fuel cells)
Indoor air quality
• heating ventilation and air conditioning systems with advanced control (adaptive
and neuronic)
• new furnace designs to eliminate combustion emissions
• active filters to remove volatile organic compounds: carbon monoxide and other
contaminants
• new housing and furnishing materials less susceptible to allergy problems
Reliable telecommunications
• information systems to couple customer demands with residences, businesses
or manufacturing plants
• low-cost communication systems to monitor and control appliances, process
equipment, lighting, heating and cooling systems
Reduced
environmental
impact
• higher-efficiency end-use equipment and systems such as combined appliances,
combined heat and power systems, and heat pumps
• intelligent and adaptive control devices to optimize efficiency and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
• use of heat pumps and new techniques for waste heat recovery
• use of green power: photovoltaic, thermal, solar
• new material for thermal insulation
• use of electrotechnologies when applicable in commercial sector (Table 5-7)
39
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
Table 5-6. Industrial Sector Critical Technologies
Customer needs
Critical technologies
Reliable energy
• emergency power supplies meeting power quality and electromagnetic compatibility
requirements
• combined heat and power systems (cogeneration) integrated with adjacent
industrial plants or communities
• for short power disturbances: power quality control devices and electric energy
storage (low-cost series compensators, ultra capacitors, flywheels)
• real-time power failure diagnostic
Reduced
production costs
• intelligent and adaptive control devices to select different types of energy,
energy storage and load shifting, based on rates
• communication systems to get price signal and data acquisition
• heat recovery from various processes to assist heating requirements (heat pumps,
mechanical vapour recompression)
• on-premises combined heat and power systems
• extra power to supply electricity, heating and cooling to adjacent community
Increased
productivity
•
•
•
•
Meeting
environmental
regulations
• higher-efficiency end-use equipment
• intelligent and adaptive control devices to optimize efficiency and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
• use of electrotechnologies, as suggested in Table 5-7
• new materials for better performance and ease of manufacturing
• process integration to reduce water and energy consumption (heat recovery)
• use green power: wind, thermal, solar, photovoltaic
Industrial
applications
• use technologies as suggested in Table 5-7 for customer needs shared in common
with residential, commercial and institutional sectors
• use of electrotechnologies as suggested for various industrial sectors (Table 5-7)
40
adopt breakthrough technology
use of electrotechnologies as suggested for various industrial sectors (Table 5-7)
flexible manufacturing processes to respond to information systems
efficient motors and drives for pumps, compressors and blowers
F O R E C A S T
Table 5-7. Functional Needs and Supporting Technologies by Industrial Subsector
Industrial
sectors
Aluminum
Steel
Functional needs
Supporting technologies technologyprocess
• more energy-efficient electrolysis
• electrode less consumable
• reduce perfluorocarbon from anode
effects
• improve Hall-Héroult cell efficiency
• new electrolysis process
• wettable cathodes, graphite
electrodes
R&D
R&D
R&D
• replace fossil fuel by electric
technology to dry electrodes
• electrotechnologies available
(require process redesign)
R&D
• better aluminum recovery from scrap
(containing other metals, vanish,
dross, etc.) using less or no flux
• melting furnace in inert atmosphere:
Droscar and Alcan using EA or
plasma is available
commercial
• melting/remelting with less
greenhouse gas
• replace fossil fuel furnaces by electric commercial
furnace: EA, plasma, induction
• improve actual furnace efficiency
• stirring
• electromagnetic stirring
commercial
• production of steel with less
greenhouse gas in replacement
of some blast furnaces
•
•
•
•
•
commercial
R&D
R&D
development
R&D
• use of direct current instead of
alternating current in EAF
• power electronics
development,
commercial
• improve total energy efficiency
• assisted by heat pumps,
high-temperature heat pumps
development,
commercial
• melting/holding/remelting with
less greenhouse gas
• electric arc furnace, induction
commercial
• thin slab casting
• thin slab casting technology
commercial
• heat treatment with less
greenhouse gas
• resistance, induction, infrared
commercial
• finishing operation (surface treatment)
with less greenhouse gas
• electrochemical deposition
• thermal deposition
commercial
commercial
• motor power: more energy-efficient
• efficient electric motors plus
variable-speed drive
commercial
• produce more efficiently heat and
power
• cogeneration
commercial
Status
• increase recycling
• replace pelletizing by sintering
electric arc furnace (EAF)
direct smelting reduction
improve process control and sensors
electrolysis (new process)
natural gas injection instead of coal
41
C a n a d i a n
Chemicals
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
• new synthesis processes
R&D
R&D
• new electrochemical reactors
R&D,
development
• electrodialysis for production/
separation of certain chemicals
R&D,
development
• new material for electrodes
R&D,
development
• new electrocatalyst process
R&D,
development
• hybrid membranes/distillation
• mechanical vapour recompression
R&D,
development
• recycling chemicals and
particular solid wastes
development
• more efficient membranes for
caustic/chlorine
development
• more stable electrodes for electrolysis
development
• heat recovery
42
• electrochemical process
• new nanoscale catalysts
• separation/concentration to
replace distillation
Pulp and paper
R o a d m a p
• heat pumps, mechanical vapour
recompression
• high-temperature heat pumps
commercial
• motive power
• efficient electric motors plus
variable-speed drive
commercial
• real-time monitoring of paper
• control and sensors
• real-time control of chips feedstock
• control and sensors
• paper softness
• ultrasonic sensors
• drying of hog fuel
• flue gas recovery, mechanical
vapour recompression
• recycling chemicals
• membranes, electrochemical
processes
R&D,
development
• improved quality of waste water
• filtration, ozone
R&D,
development
• paper drying
• paper thickness
• induction (impulse drying)
• induction, resistance
development
development
• less polluting bleaching process
• use of ozone
R&D,
development
• pulp production with less greenhouse gas (to replace Kraft process)
• thermo-mechanical pulping/
chemical-thermo-mechanical pulping
commercial
• motive power
• energy-efficient motors plus
variable-speed drive
commercial
• biomass and black liquor gasification
• cogeneration
commercial,
development
• drying of sludge
• impulse drying, mechanical vapour
recompression
development
R&D
F O R E C A S T
Mining
Petroleum
refining
• more efficient grinding process
• on-line size separation
• ultrasonic techniques
• alternative to using dynamite
• high electric discharge, laser,
high-pressure water
R&D,
development
• motive power
• energy-efficient motors plus
variable-speed drive
commercial
• heat recovery
• heat pumps, mechanical
vapour recompression
commercial
• heat optimization
• heat pumps
• high-temperature heat pumps
• cogeneration
commercial
development
commercial
• electric vehicle in mines
• efficient motors and battery
commercial,
development
• combine heat and power
• cogeneration
commercial
• improve distillation and separation
processes
• integrate membranes to process
R&D,
development
• process equipment modifications
• improved catalysts
Non-metallic • thermal boost
minerals-glass • recycling glass
Cement
R&D
• electric boost devices
• new process using fluidized bed
reactors
• new additives from waste material
Food
• low-fat cooking
• sterilization
• radiation, infrared, microwave,
radio frequency
• fast cooking
Wood
• sterile material
• improve lumber drying
• improve wood handling
• engineered wood products
Fabrication
• improve productivity
• adoption of advanced
electrotechnologies
R&D
Crosscutting
technology
• process optimization and control
with artificial intelligence systems
• sensors and software
development
• heat recovery
• heat pumps, high-temperature
heat pumps, mechanical vapour
recompression
commercial,
development
• combine heat and power
• cogeneration
commercial
• biotechnologies
• motors and drives systems
• efficient motors and variable-speed
drive
commercial
43
C a n a d i a n
6
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
SMALL-SCALE GENERATION AND
RENEWABLES
6.1 Today’s Reality — A
Snapshot of the Industry
To date, small-scale generation and renewables
have not made much of an impact. Electric
power supply is dominated by large, central
generation stations operated in Canada as
monopolies by provincial governments. Under
the existing climate, small-scale generation and
renewables have not been able to compete. But
the landscape is changing rapidly as the electric
supply industry moves into a new era of open
competition. This, coupled with increasingly
stringent environmental concerns and issues
surrounding the risk of capital, is creating great
interest in distributed generation that utilizes
small-scale generation and renewables.
supplier utility (who may offer a better contract
in order to stop the cogeneration installation) or
by onerous regulation. In addition, investors
have concerns about high cost and poor
reliability for continuous operations. Small-scale
generation is often viewed as risky, with a more
profitable use of capital through increased
investment in their core business.
There are virtually no small-scale generation and
renewables operations in the commercial and
residential sectors except for seldom-used
backup diesel generators in critical situations
like hospitals. For example, in 1998, Ontario
Hydro offered a special contract to small selfgenerators (residential photovoltaic, etc.) to buy
back excess power (net billing). Very few were
interested in pursuing the offer.
Customers
There is increasing concern about the
environmental impacts of existing generation
and distribution methods. For example, the
following methods give rise to specific
concerns:
• nuclear generation — concerns about spent
fuel storage/disposal
• fossil fuel generation — concerns about air
pollution, greenhouse gas and acid rain
• hydraulic generation — concerns about dams
and flooded valleys
• transmission systems — concerns about
visual impact and possible harmful effects of
electromagnetic radiation.
Customers see small-scale generation and
renewables as a possible solution to these
problems. There is growing interest in green,
clean and small. However, industrial
cogeneration is not common in Canada.
Electricity rates are low. Customer generation is
often perceived to be opposed by the monopoly
44
There are a number of reasons for this lack
of interest:
• Electricity rates are low.
• Small-scale generation and renewables
equipment is expensive and at present
requires the customer to do the system
engineering.
• Grid interconnect equipment is not readily
available and the interconnect rules are still
under development.
Present-day applications of small generation are
located in remote areas, which are for the most
part off-grid. These areas generally use
reciprocating diesel generators and the fuel is
brought in by air. The resulting cost of
electricity is very high but is subsidized by other
customers of the provincial utility. Some of
these sites are being used to experiment or
demonstrate renewable technologies such as
wind turbines. These are obvious locations for
customer-owned, renewable generation or
combined heat and power applications.
F O R E C A S T
However, such systems often have difficulty
competing with subsidized electricity from the
utility. This may soon change under the rules of
a competitive marketplace.
Customers have the expectation that the soon-tocome electrical supply competition will lead to a
better product that is cheaper, more reliable and
less environmentally harmful.
Products
Small-scale generation products traditionally
focus on reciprocating diesel engines for use as
emergency backup power for critical
applications (e.g., hospitals, electronic microchip
manufacturers) and for use in remote, off-grid
locations as the main electrical supply.
Recently, there has been the introduction of
advanced gas turbine systems, which offer
higher performance and efficiency. Advanced
gas turbine systems offer the advantage of lowcapital, low-risk generation that can be installed
quickly (relative to central generation) in order
to respond to market forces. By operating on
natural gas at higher efficiencies than traditional
generators, they produce electricity with less
environmental impact.
Another product that is emerging is the micro
gas turbine. It is available in capacities as small
as 20 kilowatts and, when combined with heat
recovery, can also supply hot water. Micro
turbines hold much promise for commercial and
larger residential applications. Fuel cell
technology is another product that offers to
increase the efficiency and reduce the
environmental impact of electricity generated by
natural gas.
Competition is strong among the developers of
fuel cells to be first to market with reliable,
economical systems. There are four types of fuel
cells, designated by their chemical makeup:
phosphoric acid, proton exchange membrane,
molten carbonate and solid oxide. Of these,
proton exchange membrane seems to be the
leading contender in the small end of the power
scale (5–250 kilowatts capacity) while molten
carbonate and solid oxide appear to be better
suited to larger sizes (1–10 megawatts capacity).
Fuel cells are being designed to be fuelled by
natural gas, with the conversion to the actual
hydrogen fuel needed taking place inside the
fuel cell. Emission levels are 50 percent of those
of current engine and turbine technology. Fuel
cells are suitable for location within buildings,
since they operate quietly. At the same time,
proton exchange membrane-type fuel cells are
being developed as power systems for the next
generation of vehicles. The larger scales of
manufacturing for automotive products will
result in electric power system costs that are
substantially lower than conventional power
generators with comparable or even higher
efficiency when generated heat can be used.
The emerging global market for renewable
energy products and services is creating business
opportunities worldwide. For example, global
sales of wind energy systems are worth over
$3 billion a year, solar photovoltaic systems
bring in over $1.5 billion a year, and small
hydro projects represent sales of about
$3–4 billion a year. The growth potential for
these energy sectors is expected to exceed
15 percent annually (current world annual
growth rates are closer to 34 percent for
photovoltaic systems and over 25 percent for
wind).
Renewable energy technologies such as wind
turbines are already in operation in some
utilities. While wind turbines are distributed
generation systems, typically they are located in
discrete locations away from high-density areas
(because of noise and aesthetics) and with good
wind patterns. In Québec, the “le Nordais”
100-megawatt wind farm in Gaspé meets both
environmental and regional industrial benefits
objectives. The electricity is sold to HydroQuébec under a long-term contract at $0.058 per
kilowatt-hour. With further technological
development, supported by market access to
transmission and distribution networks, further
45
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
reduction in the cost of wind energy to $0.04 per
kilowatt-hour is predicted.
Photovoltaic panels convert sunlight directly to
electricity and provide a simple method to
distribute energy on-site. Photovoltaic panels can
be integrated into the building fabric (saving
money) and supply electricity to the building.
With no moving parts, the panels are silent and
are suitable for high-density areas. Worldwide
installed capacity of photovoltaic panels is 1000
megawatts. The main problem to date is the high
cost. However, based on the remarkable cost
reductions seen in the electronics industry, it is
expected that costs for photovoltaic panels can
be reduced. In Canada, Automated Tooling
Systems is at the forefront of photovoltaic panel
technology development. Its investments in the
purchase and automation of its subsidiary
Photowatt (France) allowed this manufacturer to
capture 7 percent of the world photovoltaic
panel market.
A perceived drawback of both wind and solar
power is the intermittent nature of the power
supply. This means that an alternate energy
supply has to be found for those times when the
wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining.
The user must either draw power from the
electrical supply grid (perhaps at some cost
penalty because of the intermittent nature) or
invest in a storage system of some kind. At
present, electricity is difficult and expensive to
store, although new developments (e.g., ultra
capacitors, high-speed flywheels, batteries for
short-term energy storage and hydrogen fuel for
larger-scale energy storage) are expected shortly.
Renewable energy technologies in Canada
currently face barriers such as limited market
access, little consumer choice of energy supply
or failure to account for environmental impacts
and implementation barriers.
Hydro-electricity contributes 62 percent of
Canada’s electricity supply and additional large
hydro sites are available (currently 66 823
megawatts of hydro capacity). These require the
erection of dams, which result in the flooding of
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large land masses. In contrast, small and micro
hydro technologies can be sited and adapted to
minimize their impact on the environment.
Systems with capacity less than 30 megawatts
are considered under this category; Canada’s
remaining small hydro potential capacity is
estimated at 20 000 megawatts. Although they
are not new, the development of low head
turbines and run-of-river turbines, which do not
require dams and reservoir controls, are required
to realize the full potential of small hydro
technologies. There is some experimentation/
demonstration taking place with mini-hydraulic
and run-of-river hydraulic generation in an
attempt to lessen the environmental impact of
dam hydraulic generation. The engineering for
this is understood and it is a matter of finding
the correct economics/environmental situation.
Canada is a world leader in the development of
biomass fast pyrolysis and related technologies.
Our systems are leading-edge since they are
currently the only ones being developed at the
industrial demonstration and commercial scale.
Companies involved in this field are
aggressively marketing their technologies in the
U.S. and Europe to address energy and
environmentally sustainable development issues.
A major strategy of a biomass-to-electricity
program is the continued development of these
technologies with government and industrial
partnerships in joint research programs. As a
result of recent successes, many industrial
players such as forest companies and engine
manufacturers have become involved in the
development of these electricity generation
systems.
Canada is also a world leader in the
development of fuel cells and in electrolytic
hydrogen production technologies. Initially
targeting the automotive market, the fuel cell
using electrolytic hydrogen may have a
profound impact on the electricity infrastructure,
providing a huge new market for electricity, and
through fuel production, large-scale “virtual”
storage for less-flexible generation capacity such
as nuclear and renewable power.
F O R E C A S T
Suppliers
Electricity in Canada is supplied by provincial
monopolies operating large, central generating
facilities and extensive transmission and
distribution systems. All planning for future
needs is done centrally by the monopoly. The
customer has no choice of supplier and little
room to negotiate price. Generally speaking,
there are no limitations on the customer, who
can use any amount of power at any time (with
some exceptions for very large users).
Each type of today’s central method of
electricity generation (nuclear, hydro-electric
and fossil fuel) has its own distinct operating
characteristics, costs and impact on the
environment.
For example, nuclear plants are best suited to
steady operation. They have low fuel costs, but
are relatively expensive and time-consuming to
throttle up and down. For this reason, nuclear
plants are used to provide traditional base
electricity load. The drawbacks to nuclear power
plants are the need to manage the waste disposal
and the high costs of decommissioning plants
after they have reached the end of their
operating lifetime.
Hydro-electric plants are versatile, and the cost
of power they produce is inexpensive. The
drawbacks to hydro-electric stations are that
variations in water supply can significantly
affect the amount of electricity they produce.
The environmental impact of dams (reservoir
flooding and water level fluctuations) is
becoming an issue.
Thermal generating stations fired with coal, oil
or natural gas take longer to bring to full
capacity than hydro-electric stations. Thermal
stations are very flexible in meeting variations in
demand but have emission limits imposed on
their operation.
The electricity produced by the central
generating stations is carried to the user over the
wires of the transmission and distribution
system. Some power is lost due to electrical
resistance and other factors (inductive loads,
transformer efficiencies, etc.).
With the advent of a competitive electrical
supply marketplace, a new group of nontraditional suppliers is starting to emerge to
compete with the existing central systems. They
are expected to make use of the emerging
technologies of natural gas-powered advanced
turbines (immediately) and fuel cells (as they
become available). In many instances, they
install new generation close to the loads and
gain increased efficiency through the use of
combined cycle (gas turbine plus steam turbine)
or combined heat and power (for district
heating) or cogeneration (electricity and steam)
systems. Suppliers of small-scale generation are
able to react quickly to market needs, as
installation time is short and capital investments
are small relative to those for central systems. In
the fast-moving, non-centrally planned
competitive marketplace, small-scale generation
may be the only new-generation technology
coming on-line.
Suppliers using renewable resources are
beginning to appear. There are independent
power producers that generate electricity from
the combustion of wood waste usually obtained
from sawmills eager to dispose of it. About 10
such plants in Canada produce electricity to sell
to electric utilities, with an installed capacity of
approximately 200 megawatts.
Electricity is also generated from methane
at six municipal landfill sites. The current
capacity in Canada is 82.5 megawatts. About
1.2 megatonnes of methane is generated by over
10 000 landfill sites in Canada. Only 25 percent
of this gas is captured in 33 of the largest sites.
More than half simply flare the methane gas.
Gasification of processed municipal refuse and
industrial wood waste is now being seriously
examined, as are projects to demonstrate these
technologies in industrial applications.
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6.2 Vision 2020
By 2020, the competitive electrical marketplace
is expected to be fully developed and highly
competitive with wholesale and retail wheeling.
Electricity will be a commodity sold in
conjunction with value-added products
and services.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy,
the United States is projected to require
366 000 megawatts of new capacity including
replacements over 1996–2020. A large amount
of new/replacement capacity will be required in
Canada. Because of environmental and capital
risk considerations, much of this will be
supplied in 2020 by small-scale generation and
renewable technologies, mostly as distributed
generation, although there is a possibility that
3000 megawatts of capacity will be on-line at
Churchill Falls by 2010. Technical and
regulatory barriers will have to be overcome to
allow fully integrated, dispersed electricity
supply. Distributed generation will be widely
used because it will:
• provide relatively low capital cost and quick
response to incremental increases in power
demand
• avoid transmission and distribution capacity
upgrades and power losses by locating power
close to where it is most needed
• have the flexibility to put power back into the
grid at user sites
• allow waste heat from generation to be used
• operate with high efficiency and/or low
environmental impact.
Environmental issues will have a priority.
Consequently, fuel use efficiencies will be
maximized and green power will be
economically competitive. Natural gas will be
the fuel of choice, as it is cheaper to transport
molecules than electrons and then use the new
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R o a d m a p
technologies (micro turbines/fuel cells) to
convert to electricity and heat. It is also a
relatively clean fuel.
Hydrogen will be widely used as a
transportation fuel in zero-emission fuel cellpowered urban transit systems, commercial
fleets and commuter vehicles. Its use will
improve the air quality of urban centres and
reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from the
transportation sector. Hydrogen will be produced
from steam reformation of natural gas and
electrolysis of water using renewable energy.
Electrolytic hydrogen will provide new markets
for large-scale penetration of renewable power.
The hydrogen fuel supply infrastructure will be
highly distributed, using hydrogen fuel
appliances, low-cost, mass-manufactured, onsite hydrogen generators that connect to the
existing electricity and natural gas infrastructure.
Worldwatch Institute, in a press release dated
July 16, 1998, predicts that renewables
technologies will play a major role by 2020 and
will supply 50 percent of the world’s energy
by 2050.
Customers
Customers in 2020 will demand and expect low
prices, high quality, personal control and valueadded services. They will be much more
environmentally demanding, and some will pay
a premium for special green offerings.
Customers will have on-site generators such as
fuel cells, micro turbines and photovoltaic
systems. Rural customers will have switched to
distributed generation, which is cheaper than
central power (because there are no transmission
and distribution costs). Often, a local fuel source
will be available (e.g., biomass, landfill gas,
wind).
Customers will manage their own systems and
will demand and receive a high level of personal
service. For example, commercial customers
with facilities across the country will deal with
one energy supplier (and receive one bill) for all
F O R E C A S T
the facilities. They will negotiate a better deal
because of the increased size of the aggregated
load.
Customers will purchase value-added products
and services designed to improve their lifestyle
or increase the efficiency of their businesses. For
example, customers will buy the end product
(lighting, heating, cooling ventilation, etc.) that
they need rather than the energy to do it
themselves. This will allow them to save on
capital and maintenance so they can focus on
items of higher importance (e.g., core business,
lifestyle).
Products
By 2020, significant technological advances will
have yielded major improvements in modular
power generation systems. Most of these
systems will be used as distributed generation
and will operate on a broad range of fuels to
provide clean, reliable, efficient and flexible onsite power. Carbon dioxide emissions will have
been reduced to half that of traditional central
generation stations. Products will include gas
turbines, diesel generating sets, wind,
photovoltaic systems, fuel cells, energy from
waste and micro hydro installations. Fuel cells,
wind turbines and photovoltaic systems will be
fully developed and competitive. Advanced
renewable energy technologies such as building
integrated photovoltaic panels and massproduced, low-cost wind turbines will be in
widespread use. The cost of photovoltaic
electricity will be 25 percent of its present-day
cost. Small stationary fuel cells will have
benefited from the advances made in advanced,
low-pollution transportation based on proton
exchange membrane fuel cells. The supply of
hydrogen for transportation fuels will be
integrated into the electricity supply
infrastructure, with electrolysis providing largescale energy storage for renewable energy, and
with reformation of natural gas providing
hydrogen for stationary and mobile power
generation.
Advanced, high-efficiency gas turbines, micro
turbines and fuel cells will be used in
combination with various heat recovery systems
to produce high efficiency. Systems such as
combined cycle (combined gas and steam
turbines) and fuel cell/gas turbine combinations
will be in use, often combined with district
energy systems (heating and cooling). District
energy systems will be common in high-density
areas, and products such as heat extraction
systems (equivalent to furnaces) and energy
metering will be readily available at economical
prices.
Advanced communication and control
technologies will be available to optimize the
operations of the distributed generation
equipment. They will provide remote dispatch
on price signals (time-of-day use, peak
management, spot market, etc.) and will produce
virtual energy storage in industrial processes.
They will also monitor the performance and
condition of the distributed equipment and of
renewable resources to predict the availability of
wind and solar energy. Power electronics
equipment will have been developed and will be
in use to allow safe and efficient grid connection
of distributed generation, permit advanced
storage of electricity (e.g., ultra capacitors and
high-speed flywheels), control and correct
power quality and facilitate the use of direct
current micro grids.
Suppliers
The electricity market of 2020 will be highly
competitive, with convergence of gas, electricity,
communications and other services. The
proliferation of players/energy providers (both
traditional and non-traditional) that occur when
the marketplace opened will be over, and the
subsequent amalgamation into larger
multinational companies will be essentially
complete by 2020.
Environmental issues will be of the highest
importance and will change the playing field by
2020, because previously uneconomical but
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environmentally sound systems will now be
economical. Renewable energy systems (e.g.,
photovoltaic, wind turbines) will be
economically attractive because of their low
environmental impact and value for emission
trading. Some forms of fossil fuel-powered
generation will have become expensive because
of emission penalties or the cost of cleaning up
the emissions.
Suppliers will be involved in distributed
generation, which is suited to fast-moving,
market-responsive, competitive electrical
systems. Installation times will be short and
investments will be small, thereby reducing
capital risk. Distributed generation will allow
suppliers to achieve high efficiencies and also
will give them the ability to sell waste heat.
Electricity will be regarded as a commodity.
Price competition will result in a very small or
non-existent profit margin. Suppliers will
develop brand identities based on factors such as
environmental responsibility (green power) to
generate customer loyalty. Suppliers will
provide value-added services, as this will be
where the profits lie. One area of value-added
services will be providing customers with the
amenities they desire rather than just the energy.
Energy suppliers will supply heat, cooling, light,
ventilation, cooking, etc., and will own and
maintain the necessary end-use equipment. For
example, for a restaurant business, the energy
supplier will own and maintain the cooking,
lighting and space conditioning equipment,
while the restauranteur will supply the building
and staff. Energy suppliers will also provide
transportation fuels in the form of hydrogen
from steam reformation of natural gas and
electrolysis of water through hydrogen fuel
appliances.
R o a d m a p
Market Drivers — Customers
Price
The competitive marketplace will put
considerable pressure on prices. Customers will
expect price reductions. Control of energy
budgets will continue to be a key driver for
industrial/institutional customers. However, a
number of factors will work against price
reduction: the volatility of the spot market
prices, the need for suppliers to make a profit
and the fact that suppliers have taxes to pay.
This will push suppliers to be as efficient as
possible in providing lower prices than the
competition. In certain cases, distributed
generation with waste heat recovery will be the
most efficient solution.
With distributed generation systems connected
to the grid, a number of issues concerning the
cost of electricity will arise. Suppliers may
charge a higher rate for electricity supplied as
backup, since it will be used only intermittently.
Regulators may place a transmission and
distribution charge on the distributed generator’s
output, even though it will not use the grid,
arguing a “stranded asset” charge. Suppliers may
wish to supply electricity at one price but to buy
back from the distributed generator at a lower
price similar to their own cost of generation. The
resolution of these issues will have a major
impact on the future role of small-scale
generation and renewables.
Power Quality/Reliability
At the same time as demanding lower prices,
customers will develop a high reliance on
electrical devices for comfort, convenience and
computer applications, thereby creating a
demand for high power quality and reliability.
Power quality/reliability will be absolutely
critical to some industries that use sensitive
electronic controls. Even small electrical
irregularities can cause process failures, which
can cost large amounts of money and time.
50
F O R E C A S T
Studies indicate that power fluctuations in North
America currently cause annual losses of
$12–26 billion. In 2020, industrial and
institutional customers will continue to pay a
premium for improved power quality and
reliability from locally installed distributed
generation projects if the bulk transmission and
distribution system fails to perform to expected
standards. On-site generation can provide a
solution to many power quality/reliability
problems.
Environment
As the competitive power market matures, the
pressure for enhanced environmental
performance will increase. Public policy,
reflecting concerns over greenhouse gas
emissions, will provide incentives for capacity
additions that offer high efficiencies and also use
renewables. Some customers will be responsive
to green power offerings, even at price
premiums. Most if not all industrial and
institutional customers will not decide on their
energy provider based on the environmental
benefits without being rewarded financially. It
will be necessary to have government policy
create market mechanisms to ensure that the
environmental benefits of “greener” energy
sources are rewarded such that the costs are on a
par with “dirtier” sources. Urban air quality
concerns will force introduction of zeroemission vehicles in the larger urban centres,
creating an opportunity for battery, electric and
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Green power offerings will be utility-based (e.g.,
windmill farms) or customer-based (e.g., fuel
cell plus heating/hot water supply or a roofmounted photovoltaic system).
Service
Customers will be responsive to total energy
solutions that provide both electricity and heat,
with the energy supplier engineering the
installation. Customers will wish to contract for
the end products they desire (light, heat, cooling,
transportation fuel) and provide space on-site for
the supplier to install small-scale generation or
renewable technology. Institutional and
industrial customers will continue to focus on
their core businesses. The trend toward
outsourcing non-core businesses and
investments will continue. The distributed
generation sector will have to respond with a
willingness to invest in smaller energy facilities
dedicated to specific host loads.
Customers will regularly face capital
replacements for traditional energy infrastructure
such as boilers, transformers and emergency
generators. Energy supplied from a distributed
energy facility that also allows the customer to
avoid these capital replacements will be a
catalyst for the project. In addition to capital
budgets, an important element of outsourcing
will be the reduced operating budget. The trend
toward outsourcing operations will support
district energy schemes, whereby a small energy
facility will serve a number of thermal and
electrical hosts, with shared costs of operations.
Market Drivers — Products
High Efficiency
Technical improvements in gas turbines and fuel
cells will raise primary efficiency. New hybrid
systems will combine gas turbines and fuel cells
or gas turbines and steam turbines for even
higher efficiencies. Applications that can make
use of the rejected heat for steam supply in
industry, or district heating and cooling or for
hot water production, will raise efficiency even
higher. Distributed generation will also eliminate
the transmission and distribution losses inherent
in a central generating system. The system
efficiencies achievable with distributed
generation will be a major market driver.
Power Quality/Reliability
Power quality/reliability will be an important
issue for many customers. Small-scale
generation and renewable equipment installed at
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the customer’s premises under local control and
isolated from grid generated problems will be
used to provide high-quality, reliable power.
Environment
Because of high efficiency, small-scale
generation will produce less pollution for a
given amount of output. Renewable
technologies will produce no pollution.
Oftentimes, waste streams will be available from
a manufacturing process (e.g., flare gas, volatile
organic compound emissions, steel mill process
gas) or from a landfill site that can be used as
fuel for local, small-scale generation. These
environmental opportunities will create a
demand for distributed generation products.
Green energy technologies such as wind and
solar power will generate electricity
intermittently. For grid-connected systems, it is
expected that there will be new market
regulations to deal with intermittent supply.
Some suppliers may decide to eliminate the
intermittence by storing electricity to use when
the wind or solar system is not generating. This
will be a driver for new storage technologies.
Service
The need to provide a customer with a fullservice package to provide all energy needs
(electricity, heating, cooling, transportation fuel,
etc.) will be a driver of small-scale generation
systems and hydrogen fuel appliances. A fullservice package installed at the consumer site
will be operated and serviced by the energy
supplier. Two-way communication systems will
be required to operate the system and to track its
performance and operational health. Highreliability generation equipment will be a
necessity. Important items to producers of
distributed generation equipment will be product
distribution, service and support. Equipment will
be able to self-diagnose and perhaps self-fix
through software. More money will be made
from operating and maintaining equipment than
from selling equipment.
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Market Drivers — Suppliers
Price
Under competition, the energy suppliers will be
under extreme price pressure. Frequent
switching by customers to get the lowest price
will cause great uncertainty. There will be a
need for highly efficient, economical, flexible
systems. In addition, the energy supplier will be
financially at risk for capital investments
associated with capacity additions. This will
tend to favour less capital intensive projects and
shorter construction schedules. Small-scale
generation and renewable systems will be less
capital intensive and will require a shorter
installation time than central systems. This will
result in lower risk for the supplier. In addition,
there will be a large number of ideal sites where
uses will exist for the waste heat. Highly
efficient use of the fuel will result in lower
prices. On-site generation will avoid the costs
and losses incurred by the transmission and
distribution system and will be used to defer
upgrades to the transmission and distribution
system (by supplying a new load from an on-site
generator rather than building new transmission
and distribution to service it). Suppliers will
focus on bigger customers. The cost of servicing
small residential customers will be high and the
exposure to certain legal risks will be greater.
Aggregators will be able to develop multisite/multi-residential loads and add other valueadded services (e.g., gas, power and water). In
addition, energy suppliers and industry will be
able to exploit on-site generation for profitable
wholesale wheeling or dispatch of power
following marketplace signals. Generation will
be attractive, since it will be less risky than
transmission and distribution. However, margins
will be small, and it will be a problem to achieve
enough return to maintain assets. Generation
will tend to go through boom/bust periods as the
supply/demand situation changes.
F O R E C A S T
Power Quality/Reliability
Service
Energy suppliers will offer different levels of
power quality/reliability at different prices.
Since all suppliers will share the use of the same
transmission and distribution system, the only
way a supplier can guarantee the quality will be
involvement in the electrical supply on the
consumer site — either to clean it up or to
install distributed generation to produce clean
electricity on-site. Distributed generation will
provide an attractive solution when combined
with its other advantages.
Energy suppliers will be able to offer a
differentiated service/product based on smallscale generation and renewables — an on-site
combined heat and power system owned and
operated by the supplier. Aggregators will sell
packages of energy services to attract new
customers and to promote retention of existing
customers. The customer will contract for the
heat and power outputs. In more traditional
situations, the systems will be leased rather than
owned by the user. In addition, small-scale
generation will be installed in special
applications for peak shaving and
standby/emergency power. This flexibility will
make small-scale generation and renewable
systems very attractive to energy suppliers.
Environment
Environmental concerns will increase and
regulations will become more onerous as society
moves to protect the biosphere. The low
emissions of high-efficiency, small-scale
generation and the zero emissions of renewable
technologies will be major objectives. Suppliers
will be able to profit from emission trading
as well.
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6.3 Critical Technology Areas
Table 6-1. Critical Technology Areas
Critical
technology area
Requirements
Small engine
generators
• advanced gas turbines with high efficiency (greater than 40 percent) in small
capacities (under 5 megawatts) and with exhaust gas heat recovery for
combined cycle or combined heat and power operation (key technology areas
are: high-efficiency, high-speed bearings; wear-resistant materials; combustion
modelling; high-temperature materials; predictive time between failure models; realtime sensors for combustion and control; high-efficiency and lower-cost heat
transfer components; high-speed, high-temperature lubrication)
• micro turbines (25–500 kilowatts) needed with higher efficiencies and lower costs
will be obtained by mass production
• external combustion engines (e.g., Stirling) to make use of fuel available from
biomass
• internal combustion engines (including diesel ignition natural gas engines) with
higher efficiencies, heat recovery and higher reliability/lower maintenance
Fuel cells
• advanced fuel cells operating at high temperature combined with gas turbines and
heat recovery to provide electrical efficiencies approaching 65 percent
• small-scale, high-reliability, simple fuel cells for residential/commercial customer use
• advanced fuel cells for stationary power developed from new fuel cell transportation
technology
Wind
•
•
•
•
•
•
Solar photovoltaic
panels
• low-cost photovoltaic panel module technology
• automated module assembly
• products for architectural integration into buildings to reduce cost
Small hydro
systems
• innovative low head and water current turbines
• fish-protection engineering designs
Power system
components
• interconnection devices to provide automatic switching, safety and high reliability
• development of direct current micro grids for reduced costs and improved power
quality
54
improved blade and turbine design
self-erecting wind turbines
variable-speed generators
larger rotors/higher hub heights
advanced controls
hybrid systems
F O R E C A S T
Table 6-1. Critical Technology Areas (continued)
Critical
technology area
Requirements
Enabling
technology
• communication systems/telecom for flow of market information (price/availability)
and control of generation devices as well as monitoring “health” of remote
generators
• software development to allow establishment of virtual utility, which operates by
using distributed generation, owned by others
• real-time sensors for combustion control and condition analysis measurement
techniques
• wind and solar forecast tools
• advanced supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA)
• satellite-derived tools to measure, analyse and predict wind and solar patterns
• demand-side management tools to manage combinations of dispatchable and
intermittent power sources
Energy storage
technology
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stand-alone power
technology
• high-reliability generators and storage systems:
– engines
– fuel cells
– renewable energy technologies (including hybrid)
– storage systems (flywheel, pumped hydro, etc.)
Environmental
technology
• cleaner, higher-efficiency generating systems including combined cycle,
combined heat and power, with systems to reduce oxides of nitrogren (NOx), for
example, reburn of combustion gas, low NOx catalytic materials
• renewable technologies (solar, wind, micro hydro)
• storage systems to avoid peaking system pollution
Biomass
• advanced gasification and fast pyrolysis processes to convert heterogeneous
biomass feedstocks into fuels
• development of systems, including boilers, turbines, engines, and fuel cells,
capable of efficiently converting biomass fuels into electricity
• feedstock assessment, improvement of quality of pyrolysis oil and gas clean-up
ultra capacitors
high-speed flywheels
superconducting magnetic energy storage
flow batteries
advanced batteries
distributed energy storage through provision of hydrogen transportation fuels
hydro generation storage (behind dam)
virtual energy storage in customers’ electrical processes
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R o a d m a p
CONCLUSIONS
This forecast is the first attempt by the Canadian
electric power industry to develop a technology
roadmap. A diverse group of industry and
government officials, working in teams,
analysed four issues critical to the industry:
assets optimization, intelligent power delivery,
end-use efficiency and convergence, and smallscale generation and renewables. Their objective
was to develop an industry consensus on what
products and services the marketplace will be
demanding in the year 2020 and what
technologies the industry will need to deliver
those products and services.
What, then, lies on the road ahead? Roadmapping methodology, as witnessed in the U.S.
experience, suggests a need for further analysis
of the technologies identified in this forecast
document to create the roadmaps leading to the
discrete technologies vital for future industry
progress. This analysis would ask questions such
as the following:
As with all first endeavours, a number of lessons
were learned during the process. The most
important lesson, and indeed one of the basic
principles of technology roadmapping, is that
the initiative must be industry-led. The most
successful examples of roadmaps in the United
States all exhibit this characteristic. The Electric
Power Technology Roadmap forecast did not
benefit from such leadership. This first phase of
the roadmap relied on the participation of a
mixed group of industry and government
officials, weighted toward the utility segment of
the industry. Consequently, some perspectives
were not represented in the analysis.
• Why is the technology critical?
Industry leadership is crucial because the
initiative requires the time and dedication of
industry officials, who are essential to this kind
of work. However, ensuring that industry
officials are able to give a roadmap the attention
it deserves requires the interest and support of
senior corporate management. Only if the
roadmap is seen as a valuable planning tool by
and for management will they then release
resources toward that effort. This is difficult to
do in times of fundamental change, uncertainty
and restructuring. When there are so many
seemingly more important things for officials to
do, a belief that technology planning is critical is
a must. The working group members frequently
worked on the roadmap forecast after having
spent full days on their “day” jobs.
56
• What are the goals of specific technologies?
• What will be the consequences for a company
that does not have a particular technology?
• What alternatives will be available?
• What will be the cost/benefit, risk, maturity,
etc., of the technology?
As noted above, for this work to be relevant, it
must be created by industry, and the effort needs
to be led by industry. For a stronger product in
subsequent phases of the work, participants from
unrepresented or underrepresented segments of
the industry need to be involved. These include
equipment suppliers, independent power
producers, municipal utilities, smaller suppliers,
engineering consultants and others.
This forecast document outlines many
technologies and technology areas that can be
further developed. Not all of these issues need to
be developed in the next round, nor do all of the
technologies need a roadmap. Where interest
warrants, however, this report provides a solid
foundation upon which working groups can be
assembled around opportunities to take the next
step in an effective roadmapping process.
F O R E C A S T
APPENDIX A – LAUNCH PARTICIPANTS
Jim Brown
Roger Bérubé
John Banigan
Peter Akers
Bon Threlkeld
Al Macatavish
Archie Gilliss
Prabha Kundur
Hans Konow
Jacob Roiz
John Miseresky
Jean-Guy Chouinard
André-Jean Filion
Kinyoung Tea
Jacques Lebuis
Geoff Ogram
Frank Chu
Nizar Jiwan
Graham Campbell
Frank Campbell
Margaret McCuaig-Johnston
Christian Chouinard
Ontario Hydro, Co-chair
Hydro-Québec, Co-chair
Industry Canada, Co-chair
Industry Canada, Secretary
B.C. Hydro
Manitoba Hydro
New Brunswick Power
Powertech Labs Inc.
Canadian Electric Association
Canadian Electric Association
Enbridge Consumers Gas
Gaz Naturel
Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec
Hydro-Québec
Ministère des Ressources naturelles, Québec
Ontario Hydro
Ontario Hydro
Ontario Ministry of Energy, Science and Technology
Office of Energy Research and Development, Natural Resources Canada
CANMET Energy Technology Centre, Natural Resources Canada
Industry Canada
Industry Canada
57
C a n a d i a n
E l e c t r i c
P o w e r
T e c h n o l o g y
R o a d m a p
APPENDIX B – WORKING GROUP
PARTICIPANTS
Working Group 1 – Assets Optimization
Blair Seckington
Peter Akers
Paul-André Lévesque
Kinyoung Tea
Jim Brogan
Richard Hall
Ed Gasior
Jim Kirby
Jim Gurney
David F. Peelo
Ontario Power Generation, Team Leader
Industry Canada, Secretary
Hydro-Québec
Hydro-Québec
New Brunswick Power
Babcock & Wilcox Canada
GRI Canada
Ontario Power Generation
B.C. Hydro
B.C. Hydro
Working Group 2 – Intelligent Power Delivery
Rudy M. Lepp
Christian Chouinard
Neil C. Burnett
Gary L. Ford
Lauri J. Hiivala
Roy Hoffman
Louis Marquis
Roger Miller
Kip Morison
Gilles Naud
Ron Scott
Rick Schwartzburg
Dean Wallace
James H. Gurney
David F. Peelo
58
Rudy Lepp Enterprises, Team Leader
Industry Canada, Secretary
Ontario Power Generation
Ontario Power Generation
Alcatel Canada Wire
CAE Electronics Ltd.
Hydro-Québec
Université du Québec
Powertech Labs Inc.
Systèmes M3i Inc.
Ontario Hydro Services Co.
PRECARN Associates Inc.
Alberta Research Council
B.C. Hydro
B.C. Hydro
F O R E C A S T
Working Group 3 – End-use Efficiency and Convergence
Louis Monier
Chris Morris
Peter Akers
Mike Bell
Gaétan Lantagne
Sophie Hosatte
Murray Bond
Rolland Larochelle
Richard Fry
Graham Campbell
Hamid Mohamed
Terry Strack
Russ Blades
Canadian Council on Electrotechnologies, Team Leader
Industry Canada, Secretary
Technology Roadmap Lead Officer, Industry Canada
Innovative Energy Systems
Laboratoire des technologies électrochimiques et des
électrotechnologies, Hydro-Québec
Energy Diversification Research Lab, Natural Resources Canada
B.C. Hydro
Agence de l'efficacité énergétique, Ministère des Ressources naturelles,
Québec
CANMET Energy Technology Centre, Natural Resources Canada
Office of Energy Research and Development, Natural Resources Canada
Office of Energy Research and Development, Natural Resources Canada
Ontario Power Technologies
AGRA – Monenco Inc.
Working Group 4 – Small-scale Generation and Renewables
Mark Tinkler
Russ Blades
Chris Morris
Nguyen Yen
Kinyoung Tea
Terry McCullough
Benoit Drolet
John Miseresky
Matthew Fairlie
Ed Gasior
Rob Brandon
André Filion
Hamid Mohamid
Lisa Dignard-Bailey
Bruce Ander
Ashok Vijh
Mike Bell
Murray Paterson
Terry Whitehead
Ontario Power Technologies, Team Leader
AGRA – Monenco Inc., Team Leader
Industry Canada, Secretary
Ontario Power Technologies
Hydro-Québec
B.C. Hydro
Ministère des Ressources naturelles, Québec
Enbridge Consumers Gas
Stuart Energy Systems Inc.
GRI Canada
CANMET Energy Technology Centre, Natural Resources Canada
Energy Diversification Research Lab, Natural Resources Canada
Office of Energy Research and Development, Natural Resources Canada
Energy Diversification Research Lab, Natural Resources Canada
Toromont Energy Ltd.
Hydro-Québec
Innovative Energy Systems
Ontario Power Generation
Enbridge Consumers Gas
59
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