NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAM „ SECOND PHASE (2007)

NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAM „ SECOND PHASE (2007)
NATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAM
„CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE WATERS
OF LATVIA”
SECOND PHASE (2007)
REPORT
NATIONAL REASEARCH PROGRAMME
„CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT ON THE WATERS
OF LATVIA”
SECOND PHASE (2007)
REPORT
NRP „CLIMATE CHANGE
Institutes and Universities involved:
University of Latvia
LU Agency Institute of Biology
Latvia University of Agriculture
Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology
Latvian Fish Resources Agency
Daugavpils University, Institute of Ecology
Program directors:
Andris Andrušaitis, Dr.biol. ,Assoc. prof., Head of Department of
Hydrobiology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia
Māris KĜaviĦš, Dr. hab. chem., Professor, Academician of Latvian Academy
of Sciences, Head of Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of
Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia
2007
Contents
Aim and overall structure of the Program ......................................................................... 2
Work Package 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF, NUTRIENT FLOWS,
AND REGIME OF THE BALTIC SEA ........................................................................... 4
Work Package Nr. 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE NUTRIENT RUN-OFF
IN DRAINAGE BASIN .................................................................................................. 10
Work Package Nr. 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FRESHWATER
ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY...................................................... 15
Work Package Nr. 4: COASTAL PROCESSES............................................................. 21
Work Package Nr. 5: BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES AND PRIMARY
PRODUCTION IN THE BALTIC SEA ......................................................................... 27
Work Package Nr. 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS AND
BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY OF THE BALTIC SEA. .................................................. 35
Work Package Nr. 9: RUNOFF EXTREMES CAUSED BY THE CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THEIR IMPACT ON TERRITORIES UNDER THE FLOOD RISK .................. 46
Work Package Nr. 7: ADAPTATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SECTOR
POLICIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE............................................................................. 57
Work Package 8: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH ........... 68
Annexes ........................................................................................................................... 72
Aggregated performance indicators and auditable values of the Program...................... 72
Published and submitted papers by the Program team. ................................................... 73
Participation in the international PhD courses ................................................................ 84
Program Performance Indicators ..................................................................................... 85
Time schedule of the Program tasks ............................................................................... 93
1
Aim and overall structure of the Program
Generic goal of the Program:
Assess short-, medium-, and long-term impact of climate change on the environment
and ecosystems of the inner waters of Latvia and the Baltic Sea. Create a scientific basis
for adaptation of the environmental and sectorial policies of Latvia to climate change.
Specific goals:
a) Create several mutually non-controversial scenarios of the regime-determining
parameters;
b) Assess possible climate change impacts on the quality of inland waters of Latvia,
their availability, flood and drought risk, to facilitate adaptation of the drainage
basin management and secure protection and sustainable use of water resources;
c) Forecast possible climate change impact on the physical regime, coastal
dynamics, bio-geo-chemical regime, and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea, to facilitate
protection of marine environmental quality, biological diversity, and sustainable
use of its resources and services.
Implementation of the National Research Program KALME “Impact of the Climate Change
on the Waters of Latvia” commenced in October 2006. In the end of the 3-month first phase
the scientific report was not required, therefore this report covers work done during the 14month period since beginning of the Program.
Although the topic of adaptation to the climate change is complex, recognizing the overall
aim to create a coherent scientific basis for the adaptation policy, as well as taking into
account the practice of administrating the national research programs in Latvia as large
centralized projects, the working structure of the Program, instead of consisting of
independent projects, is built of nine mutually interlinked thematic work packages:
WP 1: Climate Change Impact on Runoff, Nutrient Flows, and Regime of the Baltic Sea
WP 2: Climate Change Impact on the Nutrient Run-off in the Drainage Basin
WP 3: Climate Change Impact on Freshwater Ecosystems and Biological Diversity
WP 4: Coastal Processes
WP 5: Bio-geo-chemical Processes and Primary Production in the Baltic Sea
WP 6: Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems and Biological Diversity of the Baltic Sea
WP 7: Adaptation of Environmental and Sector Policies to Climate Change
WP 8: Program Management and Public Outreach
WP 9: Runoff Extremes Caused by the Climate Change and Their Impact on Territories
Under the Flood Risk
Successful work in each of the WPs depends on the outputs of other packages (Fig. 0.1).
Such arrangement of the Program facilitates effectiveness and coordination of the work,
2
although it requires additional effort of centralized management and accurate fulfilment of
the time schedule. A specific work package (WP8) is charged with a responsibility of
Program’s central management.
Fig. 0.1.: KALME work packages and their interaction. Full descriptions of the
tasks are presented in the Program Application, published in www.kalme.daba.lv
.
Seven natural-science WPs (1-6 and 9) produce new knowledge while the task of WP7 is
to maintain a dialogue with potential end-users of Program’s deliverables and its
stakeholders, and to facilitate utilization of scientific knowledge while creating Latvia’s
national climate change adaptation policy and amending various sector policies, planning
documents and regulatory acts. Program’s management WP is involved also in
dissemination of the results to the broad public, ensures Program’s visibility and
implements its educational activities.
3
Work Package 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF, NUTRIENT
FLOWS, AND REGIME OF THE BALTIC SEA
Goals:
1. Preparation of the scenarios – the series of the hydro-meteorological data,
characterising the climate change.
2. Development of the mathematical model for the freshwater and nutrient run-off
from the territory of Latvia, and preparation of the run-off data series, characterising
the climate change.
3. Development of the three-dimensional oceanographic model for the Gulf of Riga,
and calculation of the data series of the sea state in accordance to the climate change
scenarios.
4. Modelling and data analysis in support for the other WPs.
Phase 2 tasks of WP1:
1. Determine the access conditions and retrieve the regional climate modelling (RCM)
data sets from several (at least two) sources. Define several alternative climate
change scenarios.
2. Modelling of the hydrological regime of the selected pilot basin (Amata) with a
conceptual and physically based model. The development of the model and
respective software for the hydrological modelling. Calibration and verification of
the model, inclusion of the nutrient run-off functionality.
3. Investigate the impact of climate change on the river run-off and its seasonal
variability: (a) evaluate the long-term run-off variability, (b) assess the long-term
variability of ice cover, (c) determine the impact of large scale atmosphere
circulation processes on the river runoff regime.
4. Select the sub-domain for modelling of the Baltic Sea state; prepare the calculation
grid and depth distribution in this domain.
Phase 2 results of WP1:
Task 1: Determine the access conditions and retrieve the regional climate modelling
(RCM) data sets from several (at least two) sources. Define several alternative climate
change scenarios.
Preparation of climate scenarios:
1. The calculation results from 21 RCM acquired.
2. The time-series of the meteorological observation for contemporary climate
(1961-1990) acquired.
3. The evaluation, ranking and selection of the model calculations of the p. 1 are
performed via comparison with observations performed under the p. 2.
4
4. The re-evaluation of the model calculations of p.1 is performed by using them as
input data for the river basin run-off model (developed within Task 2).
5. The statistically significant deviations from the observed temperature and
precipitation regime are determined in the RCM computations for the territory of
Latvia.
6. The non-linear amplification of small differences between observed and modelled
meteorological parameters are found in comparison of modelled and observed runoff time-series.
7. A novel method of the correction of RCM calculation data series is proposed
ensuring the statistical correspondence between the observed and RCM data.
8. The correction of the RCM data of p.3 is done by method of p.7; thus, four 30year long data sets for the territory of Latvia are prepared: (a) contemporary
climate – observation data, (b) contemporary climate - RCM calculations, (c-d)
RCM calculations for climate change scenarios B2 and A2.
58°20'N
8.5
58°00'N
8.1
57°40'N
7.7
7.3
57°20'N
6.9
57°00'N
6.5
56°40'N
6.1
56°20'N
5.7
56°00'N
5.3
55°40'N
4.9
4.5
55°20'N
21°E
22°E
23°E
24°E
25°E
26°E
27°E
28°E
58°20'N
8.5
58°00'N
8.1
57°40'N
7.7
7.3
57°20'N
6.9
57°00'N
6.5
56°40'N
6.1
56°20'N
5.7
56°00'N
5.3
55°40'N
4.9
4.5
55°20'N
21°E
22°E
23°E
24°E
25°E
26°E
27°E
28°E
Figure 1.1. Annual mean air temperature over Latvia for contemporary climate.
Non-corrected (upper panel) and corrected (lowe panel) calculations by the best of
RCM.
5
Task 2: Development of the mathematical model for the freshwater and nutrient run-off
from the territory of Latvia, and preparation of the run-off data series, characterising the
climate change.
1. The decision of the usage of physically based run-off model is taken after
comparing of its performance vs. conceptual model in the pilot basin.
2. The mathematical model of hydrological regime is developed (surface run-off and
river routing).
3. The model of p.2 is calibrated for the pilot basin and used for the quality control
of the RCM data.
4. The calculations by the model of p.3 are performed for the pilot basin (Aiviekste);
thus, four 30-year long data sets for the territory of pilot basin are prepared: (a)
contemporary climate – observation data, (b) contemporary climate – calculations
from RCM data, (c-d) calculations for climate change scenarios B2 and A2.
Task 3: Investigate the impact of climate change on the river run-off and its seasonal
variability: (a) evaluate the long-term run-off variability, (b) assess the long-term
variability of ice cover, (c) determine the impact of the large scale atmosphere circulation
processes on the river runoff regime.
The research of the long-term changes of the regime of the river run-off and its influencing
factors were performed in 2007. The analysis of run-off data series for the whole
observation period in Latvia (since 1860) proofed non-existence of statistically significant
run-off trend. However, such an increasing trend is characteristic for winter run-off in all
Latvian rivers (Fig.1.2).
The periodic variation is detected in the run-off regime (Fig. 1.3), most probably this is
determined by a large scale circulation of air masses.
The atmosphere circulation processes may be characterized by the variability of the
pathways of dominant air masses (inflow of air masses from North Atlantics, polar regions,
Eurasia and Africa). The changes in the circulation of the air masses characterize the
variability of climate change.
The ice regime in Latvian rivers is investigated, and it is proofed that the variability of the
seasonal distribution of climatic indicators determines the variability of the ice regime, thus,
further, influencing the change of run-off characteristics.
6
700
3
3
Caurplūdums ziemā (m/s)
1000
500
400
800
ziema
600
300
200
400
100
200
Caurplūdums vasarā (m /s)
1200
600
2001
1991
1981
1971
1961
1951
1941
1931
1921
1911
1901
1891
1881
vasara
0
0
Gads
100
Caurplūdums (m3 /s)
1000
Figure 1.2. The mean discharge of Daugava river for winter (December-March,
purple line) and summer (June-August, dashed line) months (1881-2004). Left Y
axis – winter runoff, right Y axis – summer runoff.
Daugava
Venta
10
Salaca
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1916
1925
1911
1906
1901
1896
1891
1886
1881
6 per. M ov. Avg.
Figure 1.3. The character of variability of Daugava, Venta and Salaca
discharges. 6-year running average of the mean annual discharge.
7
Task 4: Select the sub-domain for modelling of Baltic sea state; prepare the calculation
grid and depth distribution in this domain.
1. The modelling domain in the Baltic Sea is selected for the climatic modelling of the
sea state (Fig. 1.4).
2. The building of the modelling system is started by developing of a threedimensional transient oceanographic model.
3. The performance of model of p.2 is tested utilizing forcing conditions from the DMI
(Danish Meteorological Institute) operational atmosphere model, and the boundary
conditions from the DMI operational Baltic Sea model.
The developed mathematical model may be used as the decision support tool for problems
influenced by sea state parameters.
Figure 1.4. Selected modelling domain with calculated distribution of water
temperature, surface currents and wave height.
Scientific and economic significance of results
The objective and systematic deviations of the RCM results for the reference period over
the territory of Latvia was not scientifically proofed before.
8
The non-linear amplification of the negligible variations of climate signal in the
hydrological system was demonstrated.
The method of the RCM data correction seems to be novel.
The prepared temperature and precipitation data sets are unique – the RCM results
regionally adapted for Latvia; synthetic non-contradictory data series of contemporary
and future climate.
Summary
The climate change scenarios for the territory of Latvia in a form of temperature and
precipitation data series were prepared. The mathematical models for the modelling of
river run-off and sea state were developed.
WP1 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. Model calculations to prepare the data series of water and nutrient run-off from the
Latvian territory, compliant with the climate change scenarios.
2. Model calculations to prepare the data series of the physical state of sea, compliant
with the climate change scenarios.
3. The investigation of the dependence of the variability of chemical composition of
water on the character of climatic variability. The impact of the character of climate
change on the precipitation and hydrological regime of inland waters.
Work Package Coordinator: Uldis Bethers
9
Work Package Nr. 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE NUTRIENT
RUN-OFF IN DRAINAGE BASIN
Goal:
Assessment of the climate change impact on the hydrological regime and nutrient run-off in
rivers of Latvia
Phase 2 tasks of WP2:
1. Development of the data base and digital maps for sub-basins of the Berze river.
2. Preparation of weather data sets and data sets of hydrological parameters for 5-6 river
basins.
3. Assessment of nutrient retention from diffuse pollution sources.
4. Evaluation of the available hydrological and hydro chemical models for modelling in
Latvia. Validation of model application and calibration of models for the selected river
basins in Latvia.
Phase 2 results of WP2:
Task 1: Development of the data base and digital maps for sub-basins of the Berze river.
15 homogeneous sub-basins has been selected for water quality modelling in the Berze river
basin (900 km2) taking into account pollution sources, land use, animal/crop husbandry,
population density and other factors related to the water quality. Digital maps have been used
for analyzing of the impact factors. The high precision (data from land drainage 1:2000
maps) hydro-graphic GIS map is under preparation. Professional staff of Rural Support
Service is involved in the preparation of that map. Due to a very large area, data coverage and
high resolution (up to field drainage level), hydrographical map has not been finished jet. GIS
maps of the animal farms and animal density (data from animal register 2006) cover the
whole territory of Latvia including the Bērze river sub-basins. In addition, the map of
intensively used farm land (data from EU payments database) in the Bērze river basin was
prepared.
Modelling of water quality needs experience and skills not developed to the necessary
scientific level in Latvia today. Therefore, it may be concluded that GIS solutions for
selection of sub-basins have certain scientific value considering preparation of the river
basin management plans for implementation of the WFD. Basin management with the task
to ensure good quality of water is not possible without model applications.
Task 2: Preparation of weather data sets and data sets of hydrological parameters for 5-6
river basins.
Hydrological and meteorological data from databases of the Latvian Environment,
Geology, and Meteorology Agency, SIA “Melioprojekts” and Latvia University of
Agriculture (LLU) were collected and the time series of flow and nitrogen and phosphorus
concentrations from the monitoring sub-catchments have been prepared for modelling.
10
Unfortunately, the digital environmental register of the climatic, hydrological and hydrochemical data is not available in Latvia. In this context, the data sets available in University
of Latvia and LLU may be evaluated as a valuable input for solution of problems in
different fields of environmental engineering and water management.
Water samples were analyzed in the Laboratory of Marine Monitoring of Latvian Institute
of Aquatic Ecology. Supplementary data collection shall be organized in the year 2008.
Task3: Assessment of nutrient retention from diffuse pollution sources.
The assessment and monitoring of the nutrient fluxes from diffuse sources and retention of
nutrients was continued. Variation of the nutrient fluxes depend on weather conditions,
crops and fertilization. The data presented in Figure 2.1. indicate significant decrease in
nitrate concentrations in the system: plot - drainage field - small catchment, in the Mellupite
monitoring site. Similar results have been obtained on a drainage field – small catchment
scale in the Berze site. Changes in the nitrogen concentrations could be attributed to
nitrification, de-nitrification, and assimilation by algae and by macrophytes. In the
monitoring site with low input from agriculture - Vienziemite - both in the drainage field
and small catchment scale the nitrogen concentrations are low, close to the reference values
and there is no indication of the reasonable retention.
mg/l
Nitrogen concentrations NO3, Ntot
14,00
Retention
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
Mellupīte station
Berze station
Small catchment
Drainage field
Small catchment
Drainage field
Small catchment
Drainage field
Plots (slurry)
Plots (solid manure)
Plots (high)
Plots (normal)
Plots (unfertilized)
0,00
Vienziemīte
Figure 2.1. Average concentrations total nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen in plot, field
and small catchment scale (1995 – 2006).
Nutrient export factors necessary for the water quality modelling in rivers could be
calculated with sophisticated soil models like SoilNDB. These models are not calibrated in
11
Latvia. Therefore, the Fyris model, used for apportionment of nutrient load from rivers e.g.
case study for the Berze river, rely on nutrient export factors measured in monitoring sites
in the plot, field and small catchment scales. These data potentially are of great importance
for calibration of the water quality models and calculation of the agricultural run-off for
determination of pollution loads to the Baltic Sea, i.e. HELCOM PLC.
Task 4: Evaluation of the available hydrological and hydro-chemical models for modelling
in Latvia. Validation of model application and calibration of models for the selected river
basins in Latvia.
For the modelling of hydrological processes and water quality of rivers, different
quantification tools have been developed in different countries. However, only tested and
internationally accepted models should be used. The conceptual rainfall-runoff METQ model
(recent version METQ2007BDOPT) for the modelling of the Burtnieku lake watershed (as a
part of the Salaca river basin) was used. The preliminary calibration results demonstrated
acceptable applicability of the model. The model calibration and validation is done on the
base of the daily data from 5 meteorological and 5 hydrological stations from 1990 to 1999.
The results of model calibration, showed a good coincidence (r = 0.83-0.95; R2– 0.63-0.90)
between simulated and observed discharges. Therefore, the model can be used for further
simulation of hydrological processes. The best coincidence (Figure 2.2.) was obtained for the
River Salaca basin at Mazsalaca (the efficiency criterion R2 is 0.90 and correlation coefficient
r = 0.95).
100
observed
simulated
90
70
3
Discharge (m /s)
80
60
50
40
30
20
10
98.09.01
98.05.01
98.01.01
97.09.01
97.05.01
97.01.01
96.09.01
96.05.01
96.01.01
95.09.01
95.05.01
95.01.01
94.09.01
94.05.01
94.01.01
0
Figure 2.2. Observed and simulated hydrographs at runoff gauge SalacaMazsalaca
In addition, the preliminary calibration of the METQ2007BDOPT model was performed for
the following river basins or sub-basins: Salaca, Bērze and Iecava.
Water quality simulation and modelling for this purpose so far was not developed in Latvia.
Therefore, for simulation of the water quality in the Bērze river, the Fyris model, developed
12
in Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), was selected. One of the main
preconditions was a willingness of SLU researchers to test Fyris application in the rivers of
Baltic countries. Water quality sampling, which started in 2005 provided data for the first
attempts of simulation for the Bērze river and its 15 sub-catchments (Figure 2.3.). Taking into
account variation of weather conditions, successful modelling approach will depend on the
availability of the time series of water quality data for river and sub-catchments. Therefore,
water sampling should be continued.
In summary the most important result of WP2 is the development of competence and skills
to use hydrological and water quality models, which will contribute to the implementation of
the Water Framework Directive e.g. preparation of River Basin Management Plans in order
to achieve a good ecological status in all water bodies. It is obvious that the HELCOM PLC
calculations of N and P loads also requires modelling tools.
Figure 2.3. Simulation of total nitrogen (Ntot) concentration for sub-catchment:
“Berze downstream Dobele town”.
Scientific results and economic significance of results
Implementation of the research results of WP2 will develop capacities for water quality
modelling, where progress in Latvia has been too slow. The assessment of the performance
and the applicability of the models will support implementation of the required activities of
WFD and the evaluation of Latvias’ share and nutrient load quotas to reduce pollution of the
Baltic Sea. Use of the regional climate change data with the calibrated modelling tools in the
next phase of this Program will provide scientific evaluation of climate change impact to the
surface water quality.
13
Summary
During the Program phase II, the time series of flow and nitrogen and phosphorus
concentrations from the monitoring sub-catchments have been prepared for the assessment of
performance and the applicability of the modelling tools. First successful calibration and
validation of the hydrological model for rivers Salaca, Bērze and Iecava was performed in
University of Latvia. In the Latvia University of Agriculture, the Fyris model, developed in
the Sweden, was validated for water quality assessment in the Bērze river.
In the second phase of the NRP KALME, the assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in
several geographical scales (drainage plots, drainage field, small catchment) was continued.
Such approach could provide the results comparable with that in the Nordic countries with
similar soil and weather conditions. The research results will be an important contribution for
the implementation of the Water Framework Directive e.g. to achieve a good ecological
status in all water bodies in year 2015.
WP2 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. Improvement of the GIS data base and digital maps for sub-basins of the Berze river,
providing:
Precise characteristics of the network of hydrographical systems (implementation schedule: IXII, 2008.);
-
Precise agricultural land use data from inventory of EU payment Agency data base –
data of year 2007. (implementation schedule: I-V, 2008.);
-
Precise inventory data from register (VII. 2007) of the large animal farms.
(implementation schedule: I-V 2008.).
2. Assessment of diffuse source pollution, nutrient concentrations, export coefficients and
retention (implementation schedule: I-XII, 2008.) in the following sites:
Monitoring station Mellupītes in the scale: soil – drainage field – river (small catchment),
Monitoring stations Bērze un Vienziemīte in the scale: drainage field – river (small
catchment),
River Bērze basin in 15 subcatchments;
Assessment of the impact of extreme weather conditions on nutrient loss in the monitoring
stations Mellupīte and Bērze;
3. Improvement of the calibration results and validation of the hydrological (METQ) and
water quality (FYRIS) models (implementation schedule: I-XII 2008.). Model application
tests using WP1 data from regional climate change models (implementation schedule: VIIXII 2008.).
Work Package Coordinator: Viesturs Jansons
14
Work Package Nr. 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FRESHWATER
ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
Goal:
To assess possible impact of the climate change on the ecosystems and biological variability
of the inner surface wares of Latvia.
Phase 2 tasks of WP 3:
1. Prepare the long-term climate, hydro-chemical and biological (including fishes) data sets
for the model water bodies representing several water body types.
2. Continue investigations in the selected water bodies to amend the existing data-sets, with a
focus on variability of species composition as a representative indicator of environmental
status.
3. Carry out experimental studies of organic carbon flow and drift of benthic organisms.
Phase 2 results of WP3
Task 1: Prepare the long-term climate, hydro-chemical and biological (including fishes)
data sets for the model water-bodies representing several water body types.
In 2007, long-term climate, water chemical composition and biological data were
summarized.
Air temperature is one of the most substantial climate characteristics. Its long-term variability
was analyzed using data-bases from three meteorological stations situated in the basins where
the selected model water bodies are situated (Rūjiena and Ainaži in the Salaca basin and
Mērsrags in the Lake Engure basin).
The increase of the air temperature in these stations in 75-year time period is in the interval
from 0.85oC to 1.13oC. The most significant changes are observed in the spring (MarchApril).
Data from 1950 to 2003 show that the increase in annual precipitation is typical only for
Mērsrags station. The statistically significant increase in the precipitation in warm period of
the year was detected in none of examined stations. At the same time significant decrease
was observed in September.
15
9,0
8,0
vid.temp.,oC
7,0
6,0
Ainaži
5,0
Rūjiena
4,0
Mērsrags
3,0
2,0
1998
2003
1982
1985
1993
1988
1983
1978
1973
1968
1963
1958
1953
1948
1943
1938
1933
0,0
1928
1,0
NokrišĦu daudzuma ilglaicīgās izmaiĦas
1200
1000
mm
800
600
400
200
Ainaži
Mērsgags
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
1946
1943
1940
1937
1934
1931
1928
1925
0
Rūjiena
Figure3.1. The variability of mean annual air temperature (1928 – 2003, upper
panel) and long-term changes in precipitation (1925 – 2003, lower panel) in
Rūjienas, Ainažu (Salaca basin) and Mērsrags (the Lake Engures basin)
meteorological stations.
The hydrological regime of rivers is characterized by an increase in the discharge. In the
territory of Latvia this trend is statistically significant in January and February in the Venta,
the Salaca, the Lielupe and the Gauja, in March – in the Gauja and the Salaca, and in
December – in the Venta and the Lielupe. The increase in the winter discharge is typical
especially for the recent decades, thus probably affecting the cycles of high-low water level.
16
The long-term changes in water chemical composition are related to the changes in water
quality and their influencing factors, including climate change impact and effectiveness of
water management. Our analysis witnesses that only in few of 23 water monitoring stations
concentrations of N-NO3 and P-PO43- had increasing trend, and all these positive trends
occurred from 1980 to 1990. Accordingly, all statistically significant negative trends are
present from 1991 to 2001. Water colour and COD have cyclic changes confirming the role
of natural processes in the changes in concentration of organic matter in surface freshwaters.
Since 1991, some tendency of increase in these parameters was observed. As the socioeconomical changes have been taking place in the territory of Latvia since 1991, the changes
were also in the composition of the main inorganic ions.
Long-term data of primary-producers – phytoplankton biomass (mg l-1) in the River Salaca in
the 90-ies of 20th century decreased in comparison with the 80-ies, continued by some
increase since 2001. The increase since 1986 was observed also in the macro-phyte cover: in
some river stretches it has reached up to 80 – 90 %.
7
6
mgl-1
Station 1
Aizaugums (%)
Station 2
100
Station 3
90
5
80
70
4
3
60
1986
50
2002
40
2
30
20
1
10
0
0
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Upes posmi
Figure 3.2. The increase in phytoplankton biomass (mg l-1, left panel), and
macrophyte cover (%, right panel) in the River Salaca.
At the same time, communities of benthic invertebrates are stable and characterize the river
as β-mezosaprobic.
Different situation is observed in the Lake Engures where biomass and the structure of
phytoplankton did not change significantly since 1995. At the same time visible changes in
the benthic species composition and biomass occurred.
With regard to the fish fauna, an extensive data series was summarized in 2007. The data
bases were developed fon salmon and salmon trout smolts migration since 1964; their
biological data; data base for lampreys since 1960. Also data on coastal and off-shore fishing
from 1984 to 2007 were summarized. Data base on electro-fishing since 1992 including data
of about ~ 100 000 fish specimens was complemented as well as the data bases on fishing in
735 lakes of Latvia from 1949 to 2006. Data about distribution of potential indicator species
– vendace Coregonus albula, whitefish Coregonus lavaretus, lake smelt Osmerus eperlanus,
bitterling Rhodeus sericeus and sander Stizostedion lucioperca – in the lakes of Latvia were
summarized.
The information on aquaculture in Latvia under climate change was gathered. 39 of total 43
farms has water supply from surface waters. Thus, the temperature of water used for
aquaculture totally depends from natural seasonal dynamics of the environment.
17
The role of fish diseases is an ordinary regulator of fish populations. Diseases belong to the
main limiting factors for aquacultures. Water temperature influences fish physiology,
virulence, spread and diversity of pathogens and parasites. Data give evidence that most of
fish diseases are closely linked to the seasonal water temperature, and there is a need for a
complex analysis of water temperature and oxygen contents to forecast the possible outbreaks
of fish diseases.
Task 2: Continue investigations in the selected water bodies to amend the existing data-sets,
with a focus on variability of species composition as a representative indicator of
environmental status.
The River Salaca was selected as model object representing the lotic systems as it is the main
salmon river of Latvia, its outflow from the lake is typical for Latvian rivers, and it possesses
both rhitral and potamal river stretches. The Salaca is situated in the North Vidzeme
Biosphere Reserve, and it is one of the preconditions for assessing the climate change
impacts in the territory with low anthropogenic load. The Lake Engure was selected as a
representative lentic system as it belongs to lagoon type lakes. In the ERJRC report on the
climate change and European water dimension, lagoon type lakes are recognized as the most
sensitive freshwater ecosystems. Sampling was carried out also in three bog lakes in Teici
Nature Reserve that have atmospheric feeding. In all selected objects hydro-chemical,
bacteriological, algological and benthic invertebrate samples were collected. In these lakes
also macrophyte cover and community structure was analysed as well as ichthyologic studies
were carried out. For the assessment of changes in biodiversity, the sorting of samples goes
down the species level, if possible.
Ichthyological investigations were also carried out in the lakes with vendace Coregonus
albula and with lake smelt Osmerus eperlanus. In general, biological analyses were done for
24 fish species, and more than 6000 examples were analysed. Biological diversity monitoring
data from113 locations in 44 streams and rivers were also used. In total, 34 fish, 2 lamprey
and 4 crayfish species were found, and 9 of them are the protected species according EU and
Latvian legislation. Four of the species - Amur sleeper Percottus glehni, golden carp
Carassiuss auratus, signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and American freshwater
crayfish Orconectes limosus are introduced ones. Some of species have arrived in the natural
waters from the nurseries: in the Lielupe basin Salmo salar and grayling Thymallus
thymallus, in the Gaujas basin – rainbow trout Salmonific mykis.
The obtained data significantly complement existing data bases for the assessment of fish
distribution, migration behaviour and growth changes in connection with climate change.
Task 3: Carry out experimental studies of organic carbon flow and drift of benthic
organisms.
It is still little known about the impact of climate change to organic carbon flow in natural
aquatic ecosystems although organic carbon affects mineral weathering, nutrient turnover,
leaching of metals and toxicity and influence of pollutants. In 2007, fifteen water samples
18
40
Salaca Vecsalaca
Salaca SkaĦais kalns
Salaca Vecate
Burtnieks "Bauni"
TOC, mg/l
35
30
25
TOC, mg/l
were collected monthly in the Salaca basin. It is shown that concentrations of total organic
carbon (TOC) are related with the seasonal changes in water discharge.
50
Korăīte
45
Mellupe
40
Glāžupe
35
Jogla
30
Ramata
25
Īăe
20
15
20
10
1
15
1
2
3
4
2
3
4
5 6 7 8
Mēnesis (2007)
9
10 11
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Mēnesis (2007)
Figure 3.3. Concentrations of TOC in the Salaca river (left panel) and its tributaries
(right panel), 2007.
The increase in TOC is caused by increased input of organic substances by spring floods. In
summer low-water period the input of organic carbon and TOC is decreased. In autumn sharp
TOC increase is especially pronounced in small streams, and this difference proves that TOC
content is mainly related with the organic matter transported in streams by rains.
In 2007 also investigations of algae and benthic invertebrate drift were carried out. It is
known that biomass and production of the salmonid fishes correlates with the density of
drifting invertebrates, but the density of drift in turn correlates with the benthic productivity.
In climate change situation changes in the whole food chain could be expected, but there are
too little investigations for future scenarios. Therefore, drift investigations were carried out in
rhitral stretches of four medium-sized lowland streams in the Venta, Gauja, Daugava and
Salaca basins in spring, summer and autumn in different micro-habitats. Sampling was
performed eight times per day. Altogether, more than thousand drift samples were collected.
Scientific and economic significance of results
Long-term climate, hydro-chemical and biological data-sets are prepared for several types of
surface waters. It allows extracting of the impact of climate change parameters such as
temperature, precipitation, hydrological regime and ice-cover on the background of
environmental factors.
The legislation in EU, e.g. WFD, emphasizes necessity to reach good water quality in the
whole EU till 2015. CC, however, is not considered in these documents. Our research for the
first time in Latvia includes climate change impact to planktonic and benthic freshwater
communities. Investigations in the selected model objects provided opportunity to assess the
changes in species composition and structure in relation to the climate change. Economically
important data on aquaculture, linked with the climate change are gathered. Data on changes
in ichthiocenoses of Latvian freshwaters are the starting point for the prognosis of the climate
change impact on fish resources. For the first time in Latvia, organic carbon flow, that has
important role in processes going on in water environment, was investigated. For the
19
assessment of climate change (discharge) on the benthic (algae, invertebrates) organisms,
investigations of their drift were carried out.
Summary
Hydro-chemical and biological data sets were prepared, and research in surface freshwaters
was carried out with the emphasis on changes in species composition as representative
characteristic of ecological state in selected model objects. Studies of organic carbon flow
and drift of planktonic and benthic organisms were carried out.
WP3 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. Treatment of the biological samples collected in 2007; amending of the data bases;
statistical analysis and interpretation in relation to the climate change.
2. Analysis of the climatic and the hydrological extremes in the areas of model water
bodies.
3. Continuation of collection and analysing of hydro-chemical (incl. TOC), hydrobiological (including fishes) samples.
4. Preparation of the maps of land-use and spatial distribution of fish species in the
Salaca drainage basin.
5. Analysis of the ecological requirements of aquaculture installations and infection risk
of different taxonomic-ecological fish groups.
6. Collection of the drift samples to continue analysis daily and seasonal dynamics.
Work Package Coordinator: Gunta SpriĦăe
20
Work Package Nr. 4: COASTAL PROCESSES
Goal:
The objective of this study is analysis of coastal changes and forecast climate fluctuation
impacts on the coastal dynamic and ecosystems in Latvian terrestrial waters of the Baltic Sea,
to describe the quality and biological diversity of the sea environment, marine resources and
service for its sustainable use.
Phase 2 tasks of WP4:
1. Systematization of published and archived materials (like maps and plans) of the 20th
century and preparation of the coastal processes (erosion) digital maps.
Systematization of historical cartographical and bathymetry plans, maps and
estimation the coastal zone changes (erosion, accretion) in Latvian harbours.
2. Estimation and characterizing of coastal geological processes in the 20th century.
Determination of changes in coastal erosion and accumulation zones; recording of
hydro-technical activities (harbours, coastal protective structures), and estimation of
their influence on the coastal dynamic (history of coastal processes).
3. Creation of the maps of coastal erosion and accumulation processes in the 20th
century. Preparing the maps of maximal coastal retreat and accretion zones in Latvia;
the map of coastal geology (coastal typology), and the map of maximum sea-water
levels (storm surge levels).
4. Field works: Mapping of the coastal erosion zones after winter- spring storms (year
2006/2007); Mapping of the coastal protective structures at the Gulf of Riga;
Mapping of erosion risk at selected sites (endangered objects and population in Roja
and Saulkrasti coastal zones of the Gulf of Riga).
Phase 2 results of WP4:
Task 1: Systematization of published and archived materials (like maps and plans) of the 20th
century and preparation of the coastal processes (erosion) digital maps. Systematization of
historical cartographical and bathymetry plans, maps and estimation the coastal zone
changes (erosion, accretion) in Latvian harbours.
Investigations of coastal geo-morphology in Latvia and the first substantial scientific articles
and monographs on this topic appeared only in the 50s and 60s of the 20 century. The
Approach in these publications was descriptive and they did not include measured data and
calculations. Maps seem to be rather generalized and cartographically distorted (majority of
the area belonged to the soviet time secret zone).
More detailed historical topographic maps and plans appeared only about some harbours and
their surroundings. The review of historical maps, plans (1935-38, 1980-1990) and the
scientific articles and monographs performed by the WP4 team allowed to produce several
digital maps:
* Latvian coastline dynamics during the last 2500 years;
* Coastal processes of the Gulf of Riga in the 50ies of the 20th century;
21
* Coastal erosion in the hurricane of 1969 (fig. 4.1).
* Periodicity of the Baltic coastal erosion and accumulation processes (1956-1987);
* Coastal processes of Latvia at the 80ies of the 20 century.
Figure 4.1. Fragment of the map „Coastal erosion in hurricane 1969 at the Gulf of
Riga.
Task 2: Estimation and characterizing of coastal geological processes in the 20th century.
Determination of changes in coastal erosion and accumulation zones; recording of hydrotechnical activities (harbours, coastal protective structures), and estimation of their influence
on the coastal dynamic (history of coastal processes).
In order to estimate and characterize the changes in coastal geological processes in the 20th
century, the group analysed cartographical materials of the earliest land topographical
measuring plans (1935-1938) at the scale 1:5000 and 1:2500. In addition, the soviet
topographical maps produced in the 80-ies (scale 1:10000) have been analyzed. This review
of topographical plans and maps gave an opportunity to determine coastal changes (retreat
and accretion) during the last 50-60 years (1935-1990).
Topographical measuring plans produced in the 30ies – 40ies did not include coastal areas
covered by state-owned forests. Also, such plans do not exist for the Eastern coast of the Gulf
of Riga (Vidzeme).
22
Based on comparison of these maps, the graphs of the change of Latvian coast have been
produced, and subsequently the long-term mean and maximal rates of coastal erosion
calculated. These rates differ for the coast of the open Baltic and the Gulf of Riga.
Assessment of the coastal processes that took place during the last 15 years was based on the
long-term coastal geological processes monitoring data and mapping of coastal erosion cells
after the storms.
The analysis of topographical maps and plans of Latvian harbours and their surroundings
revealed the coastline changes that characterize the influence of harbour activity and hydrotechnical construction on the coastal processes.
Results these studies are presented in the maps:
* Coastal change and modern processes of the Gulf of Riga (1992-2007), fig. 4.2.
* Coastal change and modern processes of the open Baltic coast (1992-2007).
Fig. 4.2. Fragment of the map „Coastal change and modern processes at Gulf of
Riga (1992-2007).
23
Task 3: Creation of the maps of coastal erosion and accumulation processes in the 20th
century. Preparing the maps of maximal coastal retreat and accretion zones in Latvia; the
map of coastal geology (coastal typology), and the map of maximum sea-water levels (storm
surge levels).
Compilation of the tasks 1 and 2 resulted in creation of the following digital maps:
•
Open Baltic coastal change and processes in the 20th century (1935/38-2007)
•
Gulf of Riga coastal change and processes in 20th century (1935/38-2007)
•
Coastal geology (types of coast), fig.4.3.
•
High erosion risk coastal segments
•
Local factors that determine coastal erosion
•
Coastal erosion after the storms of November 2001
•
Coastal erosion after the hurricane January 8/9, 2005
•
Coastal erosion in storm January 15, 2007
Planned preparation of coastal administrative and maritime boundary maps has been
scheduled for the 3rd phase of the Program (to be delivered in 2008). These maps (scale
1:2000) shall outline local coastal villages and towns’ under coastal erosion and flood risks
and serve for the subsequent risk assessment.
Fig. 4.3. Fragment of the map „Coastal geological structure”.
The produced maps are presented in the NRP KALME web site, and will be published as an
atlas of coastal processes in 2008.
24
Task 4: Field works: Mapping of the coastal erosion zones after winter- spring storms (year
2006/2007); Mapping of the coastal protective structures at the Gulf of Riga; Mapping of
erosion risk at selected sites (endangered objects and population in Roja and Saulkrasti
coastal zones of the Gulf of Riga).
The results of the Baltic Sea coastline survey (spring- summer- autumn 2007) have been
transferred to a digital map characterizing coastal retreat during the storms.
Coastal protective structures have been mapped during the survey of the Gulf of Riga coast.
A digital map of these data will be prepared in 2008.
Pilot mapping of the buildings in several local erosion risk areas (Saulkrasti, Roja) has been
performed.
During the phase 3 (2008) of the Program the mapping and risk assessment will be used for
production of new (2007) ortho-photo maps (scale 1:2000).
Scientific and economic significance of results
Quantitative data on distribution of the coastal retreat and erosion rates were obtained for the
first time in Latvia. The new data will be used to prepare a series of maps depicting Latvian
coastline changes and coastal processes during the 20th century and, in particular, the recent
15 years (1992-2007). In addition the maps will illustrate the coastal erosion that took place
during separate strong storms (2001, 2005, 2007) at different wind, climate and storm surge
levels in sites with varied coastal geology. These maps will describe the local factors
determining the coastal erosion risk.
In 2008 these maps will be prepared and published as an atlas „Coastline change and coastal
processes in Latvia”.
The results obtained in this phase of the work will serve as a basis for the phase 3 (2008)
focusing on the coastal erosion forecasts, flooding risks of low-lying coastal areas risks,
mapping of the social and economical risk impacts and preparation of recommendations
(2009) for coastal zone planning and management.
Summary
Complex studies of the character and intensity of coastal processes and their future
development that were carried out during the second phase were based on published and unpublished materials, analysis of the cartographic maps and plans as well as the systematic
investigation of geology and geo-morphology and real-time monitoring that took place during
the recent 15 years. The outputs of these studies served to produce initial material and digital
maps for elaboration of forecasts and the risk assessment for the future 30 – 50 years, under
an impact of the climate change.
WP4 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. Continuation of mapping of the coastal changes and measuring of coastal erosion in
monitoring stations after winter-spring storms of 2007/2008.
25
2. Finalization of mapping and estimation of efficiency of coastal protective structures (open
Baltic coast). Preparation of digital map.
3. Continuation of mapping and estimation of dwelling-houses, plants, cultural-historical and
protected nature objects, located in high erosion risk zones.
4. Preparation of coastal erosion forecasts for different climate change scenarios. Preparation
of maps for the costal administrative units that could be used for planning and management
purposes.
5. Adoption of EU erosion criteria for conditions of Latvia, design of tailor-made
methodology for risk assessment. Mapping of beach typology, as indicator of the coastal
processes. Preparation of the digital maps.
6. Mapping of foredune typology as indicator of coastal processes.
Work Package Coordinator: Guntis Eberhards
26
Work Package Nr. 5: BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES AND PRIMARY
PRODUCTION IN THE BALTIC SEA
Goals:
To forecast the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem of the
Baltic Sea.
Phase 2 tasks of WP 5:
1. Sediment-water interface processes: Literature studies, defining the terms of experiment,
development of experimental system and start of experimental work, data treatment.
2. Productivity and sedimentation: Procurement of necessary equipment, system testing and
beginning of observation.
3. Marine model: preparation of phytoplankton input data, parameterisation of model, model
calibration, analyze of nutrient turnover.
4. Prognoses of marine productivity and quality changes: literature study, treatment of
experimental and model results.
Phase 2 tasks of WP5:
Task 1: Sediment-water interface processes: Literature studies, defining the terms of
experiment, development of experimental system and start of experimental work, data
treatment.
Generally, the set task was fulfilled according to the set time table. However, elaboration of
the experimental system was slightly delayed due to shortage of funding during beginning of
2007. Building of the experimental system was possible in the beginning of summer what
coincided with beginning of the vacation season. This created an additional delay with
starting of the experimental work. As a result, only one of planned two experiment runs was
completed by the reporting deadline. The second run is planned to commence after fresh
material will be sampled and it was planned to complete it by the end of December 2007. The
aim of the experiment is to establish critical values of environmental conditions under which
changes in biogeochemical processes in surface sediments and its overlaying waters can be
observed.
During experiment the sediment cores (n=8) with overlying water were initially maintained
under ambient temperature and saturating oxygen concentrations in sediments overlying
water. The gentle stirring of the overlying water was provided by a rotating mixer. At 4th day
of the experiment oxygen concentration in half of experimental columns was lowered to
approximately 1 ml l-1. The observed results demonstrate large dispersion among
experimental columns, most likely due to presence of macrozoobenthic organisms. Therefore,
27
it is necessary to repeat the experiment under more homogene conditions to give larger
certainty to the observed results.
Ūd.-pies.
150
Ūd.-1 ml/l
S ed.-pies.
100
d
-1
S ed.- 1ml/l
µ mol P m
-2
50
0
-50
-100
0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Dienas
Figure 5.1. Phosphorus fluxes on sediment-water interface (positive values denote P
release from sediments). “Ūd.” denote exposition columns without sediments.
Vertical line mark oxygen concentration decrease time.
The obtained results are preliminary, and it is not possible to draw final conclusions.
However, the preliminary analyses of the results indicate that 2-3 days after oxygen
concentration decreased to approximately 1 ml l-1 in experimental columns with sediments,
the P fluxes out of sediments increased significantly (Fig. 5.1). The observed decrease in
fluxes during 18-24 day of experiment most likely is a result of technical shortcomings of the
experimental system: the mixing system was not working properly during the above
mentioned period. However, changes in the biogeocheical processes cannot be excluded
either. Therefore, it is necessary to repeat the experiment under the same conditions. In
addition, the preliminary results show that in well aerated water P adsorbs to mineral
particles suspended in water, as was observed by several other researchers, while in water
experiencing oxygen deficit the adsorption does not take place.
28
Ūd.-pies .
3000
Ūd.-1 ml/l
2500
2000
S ed.-
-2
mol N-NH4 m d
-1
S ed.-pies .
1500
1000
500
0
-500
0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Dienas
Figure 5.2. Ammonium nitrogen fluxes on sediment-water interface (positive value
denote release of ammonium nitrogen). “Ūd.” denote exposition columns without
sediments. Vertical line mark oxygen concentration decrease time.
In contrary to expected, the ammonium fluxes (Fig. 5.2), although positive, did not exhibit
significant difference between sediment columns with good oxygen conditions and sediment
columns under oxygen deficit, except at the very late stage of the experiment. The
comparative increase of ammonium fluxes in columns with low oxygen concentration
coincided with a significant decrease in nitrate (Fig. 5.3) fluxes. That might indicate decrease
in the nitrate pool approximately 20 days after initiation of the experiment.
At the same time nitrate fluxes (Fig. 5.3) remained low until the 14th day of experiment with
sharp and extensive increase. Surprisingly, the fluxes in columns with good oxygen
conditions exceeded fluxes in columns with low oxygen content. One possible explanation is
that nitrate flux increase was a result of mass mortality of macrozoobenthic organisms.
However, no direct evidence supports this assumption and therefore an additional
investigation is required.
29
Ū d.-pies .
7000
Ū d.-1 m l/l
6000
23
-2
-1
S ed.-pies .
5000
S ed.- 1m l/l
4000
3000
2000
µ
1000
0
-1000
-2000
0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
D ienas
Figure 5.3. Nitrate nitrogen fluxes on sediment-water interface (positive value
denote release of nitrate nitrogen). “Ūd.” denote exposition columns without
sediments. Vertical line mark oxygen concentration decrease time.
Task 2: Productivity and sedimentation: Procurement of necessary equipment, system testing
and beginning of observation.
Planned tasks were performed with a delay from the work schedule due to the already
mentioned shift in project funding schedule. This resulted in later than planned procurement
procedure, and the purchased sediment multitrap was received only in autumn, when due to
logistical reasons it was not possible to commence the planned field testing of the equipment.
Other planned tasks were performed as planned, that is agreement with State Hydrography
service was reached on place and conditions of sediment trap deployment. One of agreement
points requires that in 2008 navigation buoy is purchased. It is planned to use Latvian Navy
ships to deploy and service the sediment multitrap, and corresponding agreement with the
Navy is underway.
Task 3: Marine model: preparation of phytoplankton input data, parametrization of model,
model calibration, analyze of nutrient turnover.
Model input data accumulation
The data of nutrient loading in to the Gulf of Riga, as well as the nutrient concentrations in
water were collected for use in biogeochemical model. Additionally, the data on
phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations were gathered. Special attention was given to
preparation of phytoplankton input data. Changes in the methodology of analyses and change
30
in the sampling frequency since 1995 systematically influenced phytoplankton data set and
resulted in underestimation of the blue-green algae biomass as well as that of the other algae
species which have small cell size.
It is likely that climate change will mostly influence the blue-green algae, enhancing their
relative significance. Therefore, only those data which reflect blue-green algae dynamic with
good enough confidence were used in model calibration (Fig. 5.4).
Biomasa (mg m -3)
900
800
Others
700
Chlorophyceae
Prasinophyceae
600
Euglenophyceae
500
Chrysophyceae
400
Prymnesiophyceae
300
Cryptophyceae
200
Dinophyceae
100
Diatomophyceae
0
Cyanophyceae
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Figure 5.4. Summer biomass of phytoplankton in the central part of the Gulf of Riga.
The data included in the data series are treated with uniform methodology, which
correctly represents biomass of the blue-green algae and other small-cell species.
Calibration of model
In the initial structure, where three special compartments are presented, model is calibrated
for time period 1973-200. Model calculations correctly represent long-term nutrient dynamics
in the Gulf of Riga (Fig. 5.5) and exhibit typical seasonal dynamics of nutrients and
phytoplankton.
31
25
NO3
mmol/m3
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-73 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99
1.4
PO4
1.2
mmol/m3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-73 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99
Figure 5.5. Winter nutrient concentrations in the Gulf of Riga: lines – calculated from
the model, points – obesrved values.
Simultaneously with the work on calibration algorithm, the model restructuring was initiated.
As mentioned before, model consists from two spatial units, which simulate biogeochemical
processes in the coastal area, deep area – deep water/sediments and open area – photic zone.
Coastal part poorly reflects processes occuring in the shallow part of the Gulf of Riga. More
data for calibration are awailable almost exclusively from the regions close to the river
runoff. Therefore, the model is beeng restructurized in order to merge the coastal and open
parts.
32
Parametrs 2
Parametrs 2
The greatest problem in model restructurization is calibration algorithm, which performs way
too slow and not always exhibit optimal model parameters. Therefore, a special program for
calibration algorithm was created (Fig. 5.6).
Parametrs 1
Parametrs 1
Figure 5.6. Optimization of two parameters in testing of two algorithms. The color
represent values of minimization functions (white: maximum, black: minimum). The
corners of blue triangles denote combinations of parameters, which are tested by
algorithm during process of optimization (left figure: initially, right figure: approaching
global minimum).
Task 4: Prognoses of marine productivity and quality changes: literature study, treatment of
experimental and model results.
According to the time frame, in fourth quarter od 2007 the literature studies were initiated.
Since the work is in its early stage and the experimental work was delayed, results which
could be presented in the report are not acquired yet.
Scientific and economic significance of results
First new information on sediment-water interface processes under oxygen deficit conditions
was obtained. This is important since most of the previous experiments were dealing either
with well aerated systems or systems compleately without oxygen. Both of these extreme
cases have only limited applicability in case of the Gulf of Riga.
Summary
Data on nutrient loads to the Gulf of Riga nad nutrient concentrations in water were collected
and pre-treated. The long term data-sets of phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, climatic,
hydrochemical, ihtiological parameters for modeling of biogeochemical processes were
prepared. Furthermore, an pilot experiment of sediment-water interface processes was
performed, simulating the system response to oxygen concentration decrease in sediments
overlying water to value of 1 ml l-1.
33
WP5 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1.
Analyse the results of experimental work performed in 2007.
2.
Continue the work on biogeochemical model elaboration, integration of
experimentally obtained data into the model, calibration of model to simulate the
alternations in biogeochemical processes caused by the climate changes.
3.
Continue the experiments initiated in 2007 in order to establish changes in
biogeochemical processes due to changes in oxygen conditions.
4.
Establish sediment multitrap mooring in the central part of the Gulf of Riga and
initiate regular observations by this instrument.
Work Package Coordinator: Juris Aigars
34
Work Package Nr. 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS AND
BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY OF THE BALTIC SEA.
Goal:
To assess the impact of the consequences of climate change in the Baltic Sea on ecosystems
in the Latvian waters in order to facilitate the protection of environmental quality and
biodiversity and secure sustainable use of the marine resources.
Phase 2 tasks of WP6:
1. Series of laboratory experiments for assessment of changes in the phytoplankton
community under the impact of climatic variation and anthropogenic loads in the Gulf of
Riga and Baltic Sea.
2. Sampling and analysis of the field data on microzooplankton, phytoplankton,
macrozoobenthos and phytobenthos in the Latvian Baltic Sea part for estimation of
alterations in biodiversity, species relationships and trophic links.
3. Digitalization of historical data of fisheries surveys for data analysis and inclusion in the
models.
4. The creation of a fish community model – the long-term projection of fish stock and
production under the fluctuations of climatic regime and loads, using the long-term time
series and results of modelling.
Phase 2 results of WP6:
Task 1: Series of laboratory experiments for assessment of changes in the phytoplankton
community under the impact of climatic variation and anthropogenic loads in the Gulf of
Riga and Baltic Sea.
Due to the delay of funding, the necessary equipment (climate chambers) were purchased
later than planned and accordingly the experiments were started approx. 5 months later (not
in April but September). Thus instead the experiments with spring and summer
phytoplankton, investigations on autumn phytoplankton community and zooplankton
production were performed.
Experiment No.1. The impact of increased temperature on autumn phytoplankton
community structure in the Gulf of Riga. Aim: to clarify the structural changes of autumn
phytoplankton in the Gulf of Riga under the influence of increased water temperature.
Material un methods. Natural phytoplankton communities were sampled in two sites of the
coastal zone of the Gulf of Riga – in traverse of Dubulti and Saulkrasti. The experiment
continued for 16 days – from 23 October till 7 November. Zooplankton was removed from
the samples to avoid the grazing. Phytoplankton communities were exposed to the
temperature which differed from the natural by -2oC, 0oC, +2oC and +4 oC, respectively.
Duration of the light/dark cycle was maintained close to the field conditions. Part of the
experimental series (“+piev” in the figures) received inorganic nutrient additions at the N:P
35
ratio and concentrations characteristic for the Gulf of Riga during the first 7 days of the
experiment. In vivo fluorescence was measured daily, samples of phyto- (species
composition) and bacterioplankton (total abundance) were collected every second day.
Concentrations of nitrates, nitrites, ammonium, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were
measured at the first, third and eighth day of the experiment.
Our preliminary results indicate that in the series with nutrient addition, phytoplankton had
the most intensive growth at +15°C, reaching the maximal values at the 10th day. At +9°C the
development was slower and the maximal fluorescence was reached 5 days later (Figs. 6.1.,
6.2.).
in vivo fluorescence (arbitrary units)
Dubulti
1,00
Dub-2 +piev
Dub-K +piev
Dub+2 +piev
Dub+4 +piev
0,10
Dub- 2 - piev
Dub - K - piev
Dub + 2 - piev
0,01
Dub + 4 - piev
0,00
D0
D2
D4
D6
D8
D10
D12
D14
D16
Figure 6.1. In vivo fluorescence in the series from Dubulti, incubated at 9 oC (-2); 11
o
C (K); 13 oC(+2); 15 oC(+4), 23 October-7 November, 2007.
in vivo fluorescence (arbitrary units)
Saulkrasti
1,00
Saulk-2 +piev
Saulk-K +piev
Saulk+2 +piev
Saulk+4 +piev
0,10
Saulk - 2 - piev
Saulk - K - piev
Saulk + 4 - piev
Saulk + 4 - piev
0,01
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14
Figure 6.2. 4. In vivo fluorescence in the series from Saulkrasti incubated at 9 oC (2); 11 oC (K); 13 oC(+2); 15 oC(+4), 23 October-7 November, 2007.
Currently the phytoplankton species composition is identified to show the response of
particular species to the temperature and nutrient alterations.
Conclusions. As expected, the additions of inorganic nutrients trigger a mass development of
phytoplankton which is more intense in the conditions of increased temperature, compared to
natural or decreased one. Thus, if the water cooling in the autumn is delayed, phytoplankton
autumn bloom can reach higher maximal values.
36
Experiment No.2. An impact of increased temperature on zooplankton egg production in
the Gulf of Riga.
Samples were collected at the eastern part of the Gulf. The experiment was started with the
next generation of copepods, hatched already in the laboratory. Egg production rate of
Acartia bifilosa was measured at the selected temperature values: 9, 11, 13 and 15oC.
Production (number of eggs) was estimated after 24 h long exposure. The results are
currently being analyzed.
Experiment No.3. An impact of increased temperature on particular phytoplankton
species in the Gulf of Riga.
Aim: to investigate the response of separate dominant phytoplankton species on potential
temperature increase due to delayed water cooling in autumn in the Gulf of Riga. It is
expected that results of this experiment will serve as additional data for the modelling
purposes.
Material and methods. Characteristic autumn-winter-spring species of the Gulf of Riga will
be used as a test objects:
green alga - Scenedesmus quadricauda,
one of the dominant diatom species - Navicula spp. or Nitschia spp.
The development of algae will be observed at the respective temperature deviations: -2 oC;
0 oC (control); +2 oC; +4 oC from the natural. The abundance of algae will be estimated by
values of in vivo fluorescence.
At the beginning of December 2007 experiment No.4 will be started: An impact of increased
temperature on winter phytoplankton community structure in the Gulf of Riga.
Aim: to identify the response of winter phytoplankton to the rise of water temperature and
potential shrinking of the ice cover period in the Gulf of Riga.
Material and methods. The substrate in the experiment will be sediments from the
accumulation zone of the Gulf containing over-wintering phytoplankton cells. To sustain the
longevity of the experiment and circulation of substances, plankton communities will be
incubated together with the benthic ones. The duration of the experiment will depend upon
the physiological condition of phytoplankton; illumination cycle will be simulated close to
the field situation. Incubation will occur in aerated plastic vessels of 70 l volume.
The scientific and economic significance of the results – short-term experiments give an
opportunity to obtain additional data and deepen the understanding about the response of
communities on the potential climatic variations in a real time, while in the field observations
several years would be necessary. The data of the experiments are usable for future
projections and calibration of models.
Task 2: Sampling and analysis of field data on microzooplankton, phytoplankton,
macrozoobenthos and phytobenthos in the Latvian Baltic Sea part for estimation of
alterations in biodiversity, species relationship and trophic links.
37
The collection of the field data at the coastal part of Latvian Baltic Proper was performed to
obtain more information on response of planktonic and benthic communities and species on
the environmental variation, as the existing data for last 15 years are incomplete in time and
space. Current marine monitoring scheme does not include measurements of the
environmental variables in the Baltic Proper – Eastern Gotland basin, and has a quite
fragmented and formal approach also to the coastal zone. To fulfil the objectives of the
program, the range of biological parameters sampled was planned to have the best possible
coverage of all trophic links. The obtained data will be further used to prepare forecasts based
both on long-term observations and the modelling results. Vessels of Latvian Naval Forces
„Astra” and „Varonis” and the boat of Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology were used for the
sampling cruises. Nine coastal stations from Ovīši to Nida and three stations in the Eastern
Gotland were sampled.
The time schedule and the parameters of collected material are compiled in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1. Sampled field data and sampling time at the Baltic Sea, Latvian waters, in
2007
Parameters
15.16.04.
7.9.05.
9.11.
06.
x
13.14.07.
10.12.
08
x
26.27.
09.
x
20.22.11.
Microzooplankton – species
x
x
x
x
composition, abundance, biomass
Phytoplankton – species composition, x
x
x
x
x
x
x
abundance, biomass, chlorophyll a
concentration
Zooplankton – species composition,
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
abundance, biomass
Macrozoobenthos – species
x
composition, abundance, biomass
Hydrological parameters –
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
temperature, salinity, oxygen
concentration, pH, turbidity
Hydrochemical parameters –
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
inorganic nitrogen compounds,
phosphates, total nitrogen, total
phosphorous, silicates.
The analysis of the collected material will be continued in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2008.
The scientific and economic significance of the results – when completed, work will give an
opportunity to produce more precise forecasts of climate impact on the marine ecosystems. In
turn, the alteration in condition of marine living resources will affect the economic and social
stability in spheres of fisheries, regional development and tourism.
38
Task 3: Digitalization of historical data of fish species scientific surveys for data analysis
and inclusion in the models.
The ability to forecast the recruitment or the production rate of the young fish is crucial for
projections of the fish stocks and their catch. The fish recruitment is affected by various
environmental factors, spawning stock size and its structure. The indices of recruitment could
be obtained from the analytical assessment of the fish stock units or the scientific surveys of
juvenile fish. In order to reveal the relationship between recruitment and the environmental
conditions, the necessary time-series of the most important Baltic Sea fish species were
supplemented with data of 2006 and the results of 2007 stock analytical assessment for
spawning stock biomass and recruitment. Completely new time-series were prepared, e.g.,
fish maturing according to the age groups and coastal catch data. In total, data for following
parameters were provided:
1. Gulf of Riga herring:
a) the abundance of a year old herring at the beginning of the year from the stock
assessment for 1977-2006;
b) total spawning stock biomass and that for separate age groups 1977-2006;
c) mean body weight of the age groups in the spawning stock, 2 yrs old and older;
d) zooplankton species abundance and biomass in the Gulf, spring and summer 19772006;
e) mean water temperature in the Gulf, spring, at 0-20 m and 0-50 m layers, 1977-2006;
f) a sum of winter mean negative daily temperatures in Riga, 1977-2006.
2. Baltic Proper herring:
a) the abundance of a year old herring at the beginning of the year from the stock
assessment for 1974-2006;
b) total spawning stock biomass and that for separate age groups 1974-2006;
c) mean body weight of the age groups in the spawning stock, 3 yrs old and older;
d) zooplankton species abundance and biomass in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, spring
and summer 1974-2006;
e) mean water temperature in the Baltic Sea, spring and summer, at 0-20 m layer, 19742006;
f) mean salinity at the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, 0-20 m layer, 1974 -2006.
3. Baltic Sea sprat:
a) the abundance of a year old sprat at the beginning of the year from the stock
assessment for 1974-2006;
b) total spawning stock biomass and that for separate age groups 1974-2006;
c) mean body weight of the age groups in the spawning stock, 2 yrs old and older;
d) ratio of males and females in the age groups 1974-2006;
39
e) maturing of the fish in the age groups;
f) data on seasonal distribution of the sprat.
4. Eastern Baltic Sea cod:
a) the abundance of two year old cod at the beginning of the year from the stock
assessment for 1964-2006;
b) total spawning stock biomass and that for separate age groups 1964-2006;
c) mean body weight of the age groups in the spawning stock, 3 yrs old and older;
d) reproduction volume (adequate salinity, oxygen content) in the deeps of Eastern Baltic
Sea, 1964-2006.
5. Eastern Baltic Sea flounder:
a) survey results of flounder juveniles and other coastal fish in the shallow zone (0-2 m)of
Irbe Strait, 1986-2007;
b) data of flounder larvae in the Gotland basin, 1970–2005;
c) salinity and oxygen content for calculation of appropriate spawning area and volume.
6. Coastal fish communities:
a) commercial catch at the coastal part of the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga, 1993-2006;
b) mean catch in kg for one CPUE for main fish species according to fishing gear and
coastal sub-areas, 1993-2006;
c) water temperature at the coastal zone of the Gulf, 5 m depth, spring-summer 2004-2006;
d) data of the benthic surveys in the Gulf, 1975-2006.
The scientific and economic significance of the results – the compiled time-series are the
main basis for further development of various term forecasts on fish resources dynamics
which determine the catch amount.
Task 4: The creation of fish community model – the long-term projection of fish stock and
production under the fluctuations of climatic regime and loads, using the long-term time
series and results of modelling.
According to the Program work plan, the fish community model will be finalized in the 1st
quarter of 2008. Currently the analysis of relationship between the most important fish
species recruitment, spawning stock biomass and environmental factors has been performed.
The best sets of variables have been chosen for recruitment forecast, using the multi-factorial
regression analysis.
1. The Gulf of Riga herring
The stock of the Gulf herring increased rapidly in early 1990s after a succession of several
strong year classes. Since that time the herring stock is above the long-term mean value and
strong year classes occur much more often than in the 1970s and the 80s (Fig. 6.3.).
40
Papildinājums
nārsta bara biomasa, tūkst.
t
2004
2001
1998
20
0
1995
1000
0
1992
60
40
1989
3000
2000
1986
100
80
1983
5000
4000
1980
140
120
1977
papildinājums, milj. eks.
7000
6000
Nārsta bara biomasa
Figure 6.3. The recruitment (“papildinājums”, bars), mill.ind., of a year old herring in
the Gulf of Riga and spawning stock biomass (nārsta bara biomasa, line), thous.
tons.
It has been found that the spawning stock biomass of the Gulf herring does not affect the
recruitment considerably. The recruitment is more influenced by the spring water temperature
in May, when the spawning occurs. Water temperature has both direct effect on the spawning
and survival of eggs and larvae and indirect effect by determining the feeding conditions. The
significant relationship between the abundance of zooplankton species Eurytemora affinis
and herring recruitment is an indicator of this indirect effect (Fig.6.4.). In general, the
climatic variation since the late 1980s characterized by a rise of water temperature during
winter and lack of ice coverage, have been favourable for the Gulf herring. Due to the warm
winters, water temperature in spring has been higher than before, causing an earlier
development of zooplankton and providing better feeding conditions for the herring larvae.
R2 = 0.4861
E. affinis biomasa pavasarī
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
papildinājums milj. eks.
Figure 6.4. Herring recruitment (X axis), mill. ind., and mean biomass of Eurytemora
affinis in spring (Y axis), 1977-2006.
41
2. The Baltic Proper herring
2000
1500
1000
500
Papildinājums
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
0
nārsta bara biomasa, tūkst. t
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1974
papildinājums, milj. eks.
The Baltic Proper herring is the largest stock unit of the Baltic Sea. It occurs everywhere east
of Bornholm, except the Gulfs of Riga and Bothnia. The assessment of this stock unit is
complicated due to the population structure having differing growth rates and, perhaps, also
stock dynamics. Since the 1970s the stock decreased reaching the lowest values in 1999, but
a considerable increase has started around 2003, when the very strong year class of 2002
contributed to the stock (Fig. 6.5.).
Nārsta bara biomasa
Figure 6.5. Baltic Proper herring recruitment (“papildinājums”, bars), mill.ind. , and
the spawning stock biomass (“nārsta bara biomasa”, line), thous.tons.
In contrary to the Gulf herring, the spawning stock biomass of the Baltic Proper herring
affects the recruitment considerably. The recruitment is influenced significantly also by
hydro-meteorological regime which was indicated by relationship with Baltic Sea index
(analogous to NAOI), determining the water temperature during spawn, egg survival,
zooplankton abundance and feeding conditions for larvae. The observed relationship with
zooplankton species Temora longicornis and Pseudocalanus acuspes indicate the
significance of larval feeding quality and impact of zooplankton on feeding of adult fish, as
the recruitment depends on mean body weight and egg quality of the fish. The analysis of
found relationship and the biological mechanisms should be continued due to the obvious
differences between Gulf and Baltic Proper herring.
3. The Baltic Sea sprat
Dynamics of the Baltic Sea sprat stock is similar to that of the Gulf herring. After the
reduction of stock in the mid 1970s, the level of fish abundance was low throughout the
1980s. In the 1990s the stock increased due to occurrence of several strong year classes. In
general during the last 18 years the production conditions have improved and strong year
classes are observed more often (Fig.6.6.).
42
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
Papildinājums
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
0
nārsta bara biomasa, tūkst. t
paildinājums, milj. eks.
300000
Nārsta bara biomasa
Figure 6.6. The Baltic Sea sprat recruitment (“papildinājums”, bars), mill.ind. and the
spawning stock biomass (“nārsta bara biomasa”, line), thous.tons.
Like for the Gulf herring, also the sprat spawning stock biomass does not affect the
recruitment considerably. It is mostly determined by the hydro-meteorological regime as
indicated by relationship with the Baltic Sea index (analogous to NAOI), determining the
water temperature during spawning time, egg survival, zooplankton abundance and feeding
conditions for sprat larvae.
4. The Eastern Baltic Sea cod
The cod stock in the Eastern Baltic Sea increased considerably during the late 1970s when
several strong year classes appeared. However, since the mid-80s the cod reproduction
conditions deteriorated considerably due to the low frequency of North Sea salt water
inflows. The stock is at low level since the early 1990s and none strong year class has been
observed (Fig.6.7.).
The spawning of the cod takes place at the deeps below halocline. The productivity of the
classes is determined mainly by two critical periods:
1) egg survival, depending on salinity, oxygen content and temperature;
2) sufficient amount of food (zooplankton) when larvae start the external feeding.
Water masses with salinity higher than 11 PSU and oxygen concentration above 2ml/l are
defined as suitable for cod egg survival and called also the “reproduction volume” (RV).
Thus the RV dynamics affect the productivity of year classes to a large extent.
Strong year classes occurred during the years when RV was available at all central spawning
places of the Baltic Sea. Due to the decrease of water exchange, a successful spawn has been
occurring only in the Bornholm Deep already since 1982.
43
3.5
3
RV anomālijas
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
-1.5
Figure 6.7. The anomalies of cod reproduction volume (“RV anomālijas”) in the
Baltic sea from the mean RV in 1952-2006.
5. The Eastern Baltic Sea flounder
For successful spawning of flounder an oxygen content not lower than 1 ml/l and salinity of
10,6 PSU is required. The potential space and volume of the reproduction has been
calculated. Delta GLM model has been constructed having two sub-models – 1) only
occurrence of larvae is analyzed; 2) only stations where larvae where present are analyzed.
Then results of both sub-models are joined. The first results show that reproduction space has
a significant relationship with the abundance and distribution of larvae. The presence of
larvae was also substantially influenced by the time of the year.
6. The assessment of coastal fish community structure.
The species composition of the catch in the upwelling zones of the Gulf of Riga was
analyzed. It was observed that the abundance of cold water fish increases in the upwelling
areas, if the water temperature rises in the Gulf (Fig.4.8.).
Aukstūdens zivju skaits
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
Ūdens tem peratūra, C
Figure 4.8. The abundance of cold water fish in the catch (aukstūdens zivju skaits, Y
axis) and water temperature (ūdens temperatūra, X axis) at the coastal areas of the
Gulf of Riga.
44
The scientific and economic significance of the results
The current analysis indicate that fish community dynamics is affected by several interlinked
natural factors and human activities. The final outcome – prognostic model of fish
communities – will provide the opportunity to understand the significance of each factor in
various developmental stages of the fish and consequently, the impact of possible climate
changes.
Summary
During 2007 WP6 has produced experimental data and sampled field material for further
forecasts of the climate change impact on the marine ecosystems; the main work for the
construction of fish community model has been fulfilled.
WP6 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. The finalizing of prognostic model of fish communities and use for long-term forecasts of
fish stocks and year class strength under the impact of climatic regime and anthropogenic
loads.
2. The continuation of experimental work – estimation of spring and summer phytoplankton
community alterations. Analysis of the results and preparation of data for use in models and
forecasts.
3. Processing of field material and analysis of data for assessment of changes in trophic links
and biodiversity.
Work Package Coordinator: Anda Ikauniece
45
Work Package Nr. 9: RUNOFF EXTREMES CAUSED BY THE CLIMATE
CHANGE AND THEIR IMPACT ON TERRITORIES UNDER THE FLOOD
RISK
Goal:
The aim of this work package is to forecast climate change impact on recurrence and
regime of runoff extremes: floods and droughts. Identify the impact of these phenomena on
flood-plane ecosystem in the Middle-Daugava region.
Phase 2 tasks of WP9:
1. Assessment of historical and current frequency of flood recurrence and climate change
impact on it;
2. Forecast changes in regime of floods and drought based on the scenarios of hydrological
regime;
3. Identify the role of natural flood-plains in stabilizing of hydrological regime;
4. Determine flood and drought impact on bio-geochemical fluxes in flood-plain systems and
the catchment;
5. Assess the impact of floods and droughts on floodplain-lake ecosystems of river Daugava;
6. Mitigation of flood and drought risk.
Phase 2 results of WP9:
Task 1: Assessment of historical and current frequency of flood recurrence and climate
change impact on it.
The existing meteorological and hydrological data series, which have been obtained at the
hydrometric post Daugava-Daugavpils before 1987, were summarized and statistically
analysed. The post at Daugavpils operates continuously since 1881 except for 1915 and
1917-1921 when observations were interrupted. In order to get an uninterrupted series of
the observed diurnal runoff values, only those data obtained between 1922 and 1987 were
statistically analysed. These data series are long enough to characterise the runoff regime of
the Daugava River at Daugavpils adequately. During this project, they were split into
individual data series, which characterise the mean diurnal runoff, the highest runoff during
the spring floods, the highest runoff during the flash floods in the summer-autumn season,
the lowest summer runoff as well as the lowest winter runoff.
In the Daugava River, the largest floods occur in spring caused by an intense snowmelt.
During the analysed period, the spring floods were exceeded by the flash floods caused by
rain in autumn only twice (in 1927 and 1952). In both of these cases, there were relatively
small maximum runoffs (1580 and 1360 m3/s respectively) at the height of the spring
floods. However, they were exceeded only slightly by the maximum runoff values of the
flash floods (by 650 and 170 m3/s, respectively). Therefore, the evaluation of the maximum
runoffs of the Daugava River should be related to the period of the intense snowmelt. On
46
the other hand, it is necessary to analyse also the summer-autumn flash flood data as well as
the minimal runoff data series in order to get an objective picture of the whole riverfloodplain ecosystem.
Two types of data distribution (the Gumbel’s extreme values (EV1) distribution and the
Pearson’s III distribution) were applied during the statistical analysis of the maximum
runoff data series. The distribution parameters were determined by the moments’ method.
The calculated maximum runoffs for spring and summer-autumn seasons and periodicity of
their reoccurrence are summarized in the tables 9.1 and 9.2 according to the two types of
statistic distribution.
Table 9.1. Maximum runoffs of the spring floods with different periods of their
reoccurrence
Probability, %
Reoccurrence
period, years
1
5
10
20
50
100
20
10
5
2
Runoff, m3/s
According to the
According to the
Pearsons’s
Gumbel’s distribution
distribution
6468
4962
4297
3604
2557
6445
5002
4339
3623
2533
Table 9.2. Maximum runoffs of the summer-autumn flash floods with different
periods of their reoccurrence
Probability, %
Reoccurrence
period, years
1
5
10
20
50
100
20
10
5
2
Runoff, m3/s
According to the
According to the
Pearsons’s
Gumbel’s distribution
distribution
2244
1677
1426
1165
771
2176
1678
1442
1186
776
According to the analysis of the obtained meteorological data series, the monthly mean air
temperatures in Daugavpils have increased, especially in autumn and spring seasons. In
contrast, the thickness of the snow cover has decreased. In addition, the seasonal
distribution of precipitation has changed: there are two annual maximums – in May and
August, and not in July as previously observed. There are significant shifts in the annual
mean values too. The mean annual air temperature has increased by 0,7oC, the amount of
precipitation has increased by 60 mm and the thickness of the snow cover has decreased by
47
3,6 cm when compared to the previous climate characteristics of the 60-ties and 70-ties of
the 20th century.
Usually, the minimal runoff of the Daugava River is observed at summer (June-August) as
well as during the stable winter. Mean minimal summer and winter runoff values are quite
similar (Fig. 9.1.). There is also a distinct similarity in their reoccurrence during the
analysed period. However, there were 34 years when the minimal runoffs at winter were
higher than the minimal runoffs at summer.
Figure. 9.1. Minimal diurnal runoffs (m3/s) of the Daugava River at Daugavpils,
winter – blue line, summer/autumn – red line.
Therefore, it should be noted that the evaluation of the minimal runoffs of the Daugava
River should be calculated for both, the summer and the winter periods. Both of them are
equally significant in order to evaluate the response of the whole river-floodplain ecosystem
correctly.
Summarising of meteorological and hydrological data series and their statistical analysis is
important for the fulfilment of the second task of this program: to predict the expected
transformation of the flood-drought regime based on the hydrological regime scenarios,
which are developed by the first group of experts (WP1). Such prognoses will become the
basis for the development of recommendations for adaptation measures, which could help
to minimize the possible damages in different fields of economy.
Task 2: Forecast changes in regime of floods and drought based on the scenarios of
hydrological regime.
Method of hydrodynamic modelling was used for the calculation of the water level in the
river Daugava. In order to meet the present day requirements and ensure implementation of
48
a high technological level, the water hydrodynamic model MIKE FLOOD developed by the
Danish Hydraulics Institute (DHI) was purchased and applied.
Usually the hydraulic calculations of the river water flow are carried out by onedimensional (1D) measurements in individual districts, i.e. taking into account that the
water flow is directed only forward along the river watercourse. The calculations were done
in accordance with Saint-Venant’s differential equations. DHI developed a mathematical
model MIKE11 for this purpose.
For evaluating the water flow in the watercourse cross direction (for example, under the
influence of wind or other obstacle), it is necessary to carry out measurements of both
directions equally, i.e. two-dimensionally (2D). For calculations of this type, a
mathematical model MIKE21 was developed in DHI. This model is usually applied for
measuring of water flows in seas, lakes, and large water reservoirs.
The DHI-designed mathematical model MIKE FLOOD or, more precisely, modelling
environment, is developed for hydraulic measurements in the flood-threatened territories.
This modelling environment gives an opportunity to carry out dynamically related onedimensional and two-dimensional calculations in regions. i.e. by joining results obtained in
the regions were calculations were done by use the models MIKE11 or MIKE21.
This opportunity might be quite useful in two cases: first, in the river estuaries, and second,
in the territories where rivers tend to flood alluvial lands when reaching a high level. In the
first case, hydraulic measurements in the river (by use of MIKE11) for 1D regions are more
likely, whereas in the second case, with the help of MIKE21 for 2D regions, in the sea,
where the river flows. In the river, flow rates, stream velocity, and water levels, all depend
on the water level of influent and the sea, while in the sea, water levels, water flow
directions and rates depend on the wind, high or low tide and the flow rate of filling rivers.
If necessary, the MIKE21 calculations can be performed in the river, although this
measurement will take much more time.
In the second case, when for 1D regions (with the help of MIKE11) hydraulic calculations
are performed in the main, and for 2D regions (with the help of MIKE21) in the alluvial
lands that get flooded just like the riverbed in the cross direction, i.e. having reached certain
level, the water flows over the sides of the main riverbed and floods the alluvial lands.
For minimizing the risks of flooding caused by the climate change, it is necessary to
identify the flood threatened territories. Estimates of this type could allow for developing
flood risk management plans which would ensure a more efficient organisation of antiflood actions and lessen the damage to nature and economy.
Task 3: Identify the role of natural flood-plains in stabilizing of hydrological regime.
In order to determine the territories exposed to risk of flooding within the Daugava River
valley from Naujene down to Jersika, according to research programme, first of all the
mean and the maximal flood levels (i.e. probability of occurrence 1% or with recurrence
interval 100 years of extreme floods) were ascertained. To this intent data about recorded
flood levels in hydrological stations “Daugavpils”, „VaikuĜāni (Līksna)”, „Dviete” un
„Buivīši (Nīcgale)” were aggregated and analyzed. Calculation of the mean annual and
maximal flood level values within the Daugava River valley from Naujene down to Jersika
was done based on data listed above (Table 9.3).
49
Figure 9.2. Territories affected by risk of flooding within the Daugava River valley
from Naujene down to Jersika at max. flood level.
Hereinafter, taking into account the results of interpolation and contours of topographic
map, geospatial analysis and digitizing of layers “Mean annual flood level” and “Max.
flood level” as *.shp files were carried out by ArcGIS software.
During the initial period of the Program, two GIS maps “Territories affected by risk of
flooding within the Daugava River Valley from Naujene down to Jersika at mean annual
flood level” and “Territories affected by risk of flooding within the Daugava River Valley
from Naujene down to Jersika at max. flood level” were prepared, putting together the GIS
data layers listed above.
The developed maps already allow to evaluate the flood risk and to determine territories
with high risk of flooding in municipalities of Daugavpils district. At the same time these
maps are integrated in documents of spatial planning in these municipalities.
50
Period of hydrological
records
The highest recorded flood
level, m a.s.l. (year)
Mean annual flood level,
m a.s.l.
since 1931
Daugava at Buivīši
(Nīcgale)
Dviete Dviete village
(Dviete floodplain)
Daugava at VaikuĜāni
(Līksna)
Daugava Daugavpils
railway bridge
Hydrological station
Daugava at Daugavpils
Table 9.3. Mean annual and maximal flood level values within the Daugava River
valley from Naujene down to Jersika
1881-1916,
1932-1980 1967-1978 1932-1962
1921-1940
95,28
(1937)
96,31
(1922)
93,79
(1951)
93,47
(1931)
92,90
(1956)
92,23
-
90,72
90,1-90,4
89,81
During further implementation of the research programme it is necessary to evaluate
recurrence interval of floods with other probability of occurrence (5%, 20% etc.) as well as
the flood risk taking into account different hydrological scenarios in response to climate
change.
Task 4: Determine flood and drought impact on bio-geochemical fluxes in flood-plain
systems and the catchment
During the initial period of the research programme, the existing empirical erosion models
(e.g. USLE (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) and RUSLE (Renard et al., 1991)), as well as
process-based erosion models (e.g. WEPP (Nearing et al., 1989), ANSWERS (Beasley et
al., 1980) and EUROSEM (Morgan et al., 1998b)) were evaluated. The most appropriate
models for assessment of sediment and nutrient load from small catchments are USLE and
EUROSEM. First of all, the input data necessary for these models were defined: rainfall
erosivity index R; soil erodibility factor K; topography factor LS; crop/vegetation factor C;
conservation practice factor P.
At present the statistical processing of meteorological data is going on in order to obtain
values of R factor and to assess its variability in response to climate change. Values of soil
erodibility factor K will be determined from soil and geological maps and after that it will
be calibrated in the field. Values of topography factor LS will be determined from the
digital elevation model derived from topographic maps by ArcGIS. Values of
crop/vegetation factor C and conservation practice factor P will be determined from aerial
ortho-photo maps.
51
Data calculated by model will be tested in 3 study sites: 3 small gully catchments with
similar lithology, but different land use – arable land (> 60% of catchment), meadows and
grasslands (> 60% of catchment), and forest (> 60% of catchment).
To evaluate the role of temporary streams in transferring of sediment and nutrient from
small catchments to receiving water objects, it is necessary to determine the values of
sediment load during the runoff.
Sediment load was estimated applying an empirical relationship Qs = f (Q) (Knighton,
1998; Methods in Stream Ecology, 1996) which shows that the amount of suspended
sediment in a stream can be quantified as sediment discharge (Qs) that is the product of
sediment concentration and gully stream discharge (Q). Taking into account that bedmaterial load is stored in sediment sinks within boulder-floored gully channels or on the
grassed floodplain of the River Daugava valley and actually does not reach recipient
stream, only determination of dissolved solids discharge and suspended sediment discharge
was carried out. Sediment load was determined according to the standard methods in fluvial
geomorphology (Tools in fluvial geomorphology, 2003).
Figure 9.3. Fragment of digital elevation model of the River Daugava valley.
52
The study of the load transported by temporary gully included, first of all, an estimation of
discharge in gully channels during snowmelt runoff in spring. Discharge was also estimated
during the seasonal weather conditions that are not typical for Latvia, i.e. the period of
continuous and excessive precipitation which triggers floods in May – June 2005, and the
warm and rainy period in December – January 2007. Secondly, simultaneously with
estimation of the sediment load, data was collected about total dissolved solids (TDS) and
nutrient concentration, i.e. P-total an N-total, and their delivery from gully catchments to
streams of higher order. TDS was measured in situ by HATCHTM Surveyor 4a probe and
data logger, P-total an N-total concentrations were determined in laboratory (methods Ntotal - LVS 340:2001; P-total - LVS EN ISO 6878:2005/7.n).
Preliminary results indicate that summarized dissolved solids and suspended sediment
discharge values during average snowmelt runoff varies from 73 g s-1 to 108 g s-1,
respectively, and the suspended sediment yield is up to 4300 kg day-1 (in comparison the
suspended sediment yield of small tributaries and permanent water streams in this region
varies from 13 600 to 15 600 kg day-1 or 5100 to 5700 t y-1). Recalculation of the obtained
data for gully catchments indicates that the total mass of eroded material exported from a
drainage basin can reach values up to 102 kg day-1 ha-1. Values of determined nutrient
concentrations during snowmelt runoff vary within 1.26 to 4.86 mg l-1 (N-total) and within
0.14 to 0.27 mg l-1 (P-total). It yields the delivery up to 48 kg day-1 of N-total and up to 2.7
kg day-1 of P-total to the River Daugava.
Taking into account the increase of runoff predicted by climate change models, it is likely
that delivery of sediment load and nutrient from streams of low order also will increase.
Depending of morphology and hydrological factors of recipient streams (e.g. bed gradient,
stream velocity, min. and max. discharge etc.), part of eroded material transferred from
gully catchments will be deposited in river channels. Consequences of that will be siltingup of river bed, decreasing of gradient, depth and cross-section values. In its turn it will
induce the decreasing of ability to fill up and to store water during floods in recipient
stream (the river Daugava respectively), hence increasing the risk of flooding.
Task 5: Assess the impact of floods and droughts on floodplain-lake ecosystems of river
Daugava.
To characterize the floodplain ecosystems of the River Daugava, zooplankton and
phytoplankton samples were collected during 11 expeditions from January to October,
2007. Plankton samples were taken in the floodplain lakes ěubasts, Skuėu, Dvietes and two
sites in the River Daugava. Hydro-physical and hydro-chemical parameters were measured
simultaneously with the sampling.
The provisional data obtained in 2005 – 2006 were analysed as well. For example, in 2005
and 2006 during the filling and drainage phase of the spring and autumn flush flood
Synchaeta sp. and also Synchaeta oblonga was the dominant in zooplankton communities
both by their abundance and by biomass. This may be explained by water flow from River
Daugava and change in the feeding conditions. Kellicotia longispina was dominating in the
Lake ěubasts during the filling phase of spring flush flood but during the drainage phase Synchaeta sp., in distinction of other floodplain lakes in 2005. During the phase of autumn
flush flood drainage in the Lake ěubasts the changes of zooplankton communities were not
53
so evident as in Lake Skuėu and Lake Dvietes - possibly because there was no river water
inflow into these lakes.
The number of zooplankton taxa was low during the filling phase of spring flush flood
(2006) in the lakes Skuėu and Dvietes. When the number of taxa of phyto- and zooplankton
was plotted against the intensity of external disturbance (the rate of water level change per
day), characteristic hump-shaped curves were obtained. In both lakes, the highest species
diversity of the plankton communities coincided with the intermediate intensity of
disturbance as predicted by IDH (Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis) and was not
significant, except for the linear relationship (Spearman rank correlation, r=0.63, P>0.1)
between the rate of water level change and the number of phytoplankton taxa in the Lake
Dvietes.
Task 6: Mitigation of flood and drought risk.
In order to produce recommendations for local municipalities on mitigation of the flood risk
and associated damages and economical losses, the proportions of territories exposed to risk
of flooding at mean annual flood level and max. flood level were estimated. Geospatial
analysis of the obtained data show that Dviete and Pilskalne rural municipalities are the
most endangered by the risk of flooding within the whole Daugava River valley from
Naujene down to Jersika. Accordingly, 15% (1734,3 ha) and 13% (1651,6 ha) of the total
territories of these municipalities could be inundated at mean annual flood level. At the
max. flood level (1% probability floods with re-occurrence interval of 100 years) 46%
(5381 ha) and 21% (2618,5 ha) of total territory of municipalities could be inundated.
6344,3 ha
54%
9991,0 ha
85%
1734,3 ha
15%
5381 ha
46%
non inundated territory
inundated territory
non inundated territory
Fig. 9.4. Proportion of inundated
territories in Dviete municipality at
mean annual flood level.
inundated territory
Fig. 9.5. Proportion of inundated
territories in Dviete municipality at
maximal (100 y re-occurence) flood
level.
54
9898,6 ha
79%
10865,5 ha
87%
2618,5 ha
21%
1651,6 ha
13%
non inundated territory
non inundated territory
inundated territory
inundated territory
Fig. 9.6 Proportion of inundated
territories in Pilsklane municipality at
mean annual flood level.
Fig. 9.7 Proportion of inundated
territories in Pilsklane municipality at
maximal (100 y re-occurrence) flood
level.
The data produced by this study are already integrated into the spatial planning documents
of Daugavpils district and local municipalities in order to limit economic activities (e.g.
building, farming etc.) within territories at risk of flooding, thereby to minimize economical
losses caused by floods (e.g. damages of property, insurance etc.)
Summary:
While completing the second phase of the National Research Program, a study of the
ecosystem complexes in the alluvial lands of the Daugava mid-stream was undertaken.
Historical and current frequency of the repetition of extreme discharge in Daugava was
assessed, and recommendations regarding the flood risks were worked out for the involved
municipalities in the Daugavpils region.
WP9 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. to forecast flood and extreme drought events for the period of 50-100 years
building on the connection between the assessed regime of extreme discharges and
the character of long-term climate changes;
2. to determine the borders of the flood-endangered territories at a range of flood water
levels, and to estimate the role of the Daugava river alluvial lands in minimizing the
risk of flooding on the basis of the developed digital terrain model;
3. to continue systematic observations of the hydro-meteorological regime and
hydrobiological parameters in the Daugava mid-stream with the aim of estimating
the possible impact of the climate change on Daugava as well as on the ecosystem
dynamics, trophic structure, and biological diversity of lakes in its alluvial lands;
4. to evaluate the content of nutrients and biogeochemical processes of organic carbon
in the ecosystems of alluvial lands and their possible changes during the periods of
extreme regime;
5. to develop the models of aquatic ecosystems using data on plankton dynamics and
change of the environmental factors that were obtained in course of this study;
55
6. to produce recommendations for the authorities responsible for agriculture, forestry
and territorial planning aiming at minimizing of the negative effects of floods and
extreme droughts (in co-operation with DP7).
Work Package Coordinator: Arturs Škute
56
Work Package Nr. 7: ADAPTATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SECTOR
POLICIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Goals:
In the context of the water environment, develop scientifically sound proposals to adapt
environmental and sector policies in Latvia to the impacts of climate change.
Phase 2 tasks of WP7:
1. Identify possible impacts of climate change on the water environment in Latvia (in relation
to environmental and development policy) in the context of resource management.
2. Analyse normative acts and planning documents in the context of climate change policies.
3. Undertake and compile results of a survey of municipal and other government institutions.
4. Foster dialogue between climate change and water resource researchers and development
planners, policy-makers in national institutions, municipal institutions and the business
sector.
Phase 2 results of WP7:
Task 1: Identification of possible impacts of climate change on the water environment in
Latvia.
On the basis of a review of literature and research studies a list of climate change impacts
was compiled, including adaptation measures and problem issues. The adaptation measures
identified in Table 7.1. are based on suggestions of various sectors of government, the
undertaken literature review, research findings and interviews with specialists. For the
problem issues, the most appropriate adaptation measures need to be identified.
Identification of climate change impacts and impacted sectors is partly the basis for defining
partners for further cooperation and dialogue, as well as for creating a list of themes for
which recommendations for adaptation measures will need to be developed.
57
Table 7.1. Expressions of Climate Change in Latvia and Impacts on Activities
Expressions
Impacted Human Activity Adaptation Measures and Issues (I)
of Climate
Change
Dry periods
Agriculture – Plants
- Selection of plant/crop variety
in Summer
experience moisture stress - Feasibility of irrigation
or die
- Watering of plants
- Watering regime and technology
- (I) Availability of water for watering
- (I) Invasion by non-indigenous species
(including pastures)
- Specialized agriculture (diversification of
agricultural practices)
Agriculture –
- Adaptation of fertilization regime
leaching/loss of nutrients
- Protection measures against leaching/loss
of nutrients to the water table and surface
water
Urban Environmental
- Selection of suitable greenery and lawn
Management
grass species
- Lawn management regime
Water Supply and
- (I) Availability of drinking water (including
Wastewater
from shallow water table wells of
farmsteads)
- (I) Quality of drinking water
- Adaptation of wastewater treatment
Tourism and recreation –
- (I) Availability of designated swimming
low water flows in rivers
areas
- (I) Water quality in designated swimming
areas
- (I) Quality of water in watersports areas
- (I) Changes in opportunities for angling
Energy Supply – reduced
- Optimize generation capacity of HES
HES generation capacity,
- Bio-fuel production specialization
negatively impacted bio(diversification of practices)
fuel crop production
- (I) Sufficient cooling water for TEC;
suitability of water for cooling purposes
- Diversification of energy (electricity
generation) sources (wind, solar, biofuel,
others)
Transportation Sector –
- (I) Disruption of water-based transportation
Water-based
transportation
Increased
Territorial Planning and
- Spatial planning of development
precipitation Regional Governance –
in Winter
Flood Risk and
Vulnerability
58
Higher
temperatures
in the Winter
– unfrozen
ground/soil,
no ice-cover
on
lakes/rivers
Energy Supply –
increased generation from
HES
Agriculture –
leaching/loss of nutrients
from soil
- Optimize generation capacity of HES
- (I) Safety of HES structures
-
Agriculture – loss of
topsoil
-
Agriculture and urban
environmental
management – frost
damage to crops during
extreme cold weather
events
Dangerous/emergency
situations – flooding and
storm events
-
Territorial planning and
Regional Governance –
Baltic Sea erosion and
storm surge
Fisheries – changing
development phases of
organisms
Fisheries – changing
species composition
Fisheries – no major
Spring flooding to clean
river beds/banks of
aquatic vegetation
Energy Supply –
increased generation from
HES
Forestry – forest
harvesting made more
problematic
Agriculture – flooding of
-
-
Selection of appropriate crops
Soil cultivation regime
Protection of rivers, lakes and sea from
excess nutrient loading
Protection of shallow water table from
surface contamination
(I) Formation of toxins in water bodies in
Summer
Selection of appropriate crops
(I) Protection of rivers, lakes and the sea
from influx of eroded topsoil
Selection of appropriate crops
Reassessment of insurance system
Preparedness for more frequent storm surge
events
Risk assessment in compensation plans
Redesign of insurance system
Spatial planning of coastal zone particularly
built-up areas
Infrastructure development in coastal zone
Apropriate locations for disposal of
dredged material from harbours
Restrictions during spawning periods
- Quotas and species selection
- Changes in the composition and amount of
species
- Optimization of HES generation regime
- Selection of cutting regime
- (I)More wind-throw
-
59
Appropriate location of cultivated fields
Heavier
precipitation
events and
higher risk of
flooding in
Summer
Higher
average
annual
temperature
cultivated fields on
floodplains
Water Supply and
Wastewater – wastewater
overflow retention for
storm events
Energy supply
Agriculture – change in
species composition,
increased ecosystem
productivity
Forestry – change in
species composition
Fisheries – change in
species composition
Water Resource
Management – floodplain
eutrophication
Water Supply and
Wastewater – changes in
the chemical composition
of water
Tourism and recreation
Health Protection
Rise in Sea
Level
Territorial Planning and
Regional Governance –
wider zone of influence
Other types
of changes
Science and governance –
knowledge about
processes and trends
-
Redesign of insurance system
-
Creation of wastewater overflow retention
for storm events
(I) Wastewater treatment plant capacity
exceedance risks
(I) HES dam safety
Selection of appropriate crop
(I) Greater incursion by weeds
(I) Higher crop yields
Increased risk to cattle from harmful insects
Protection against new pests and diseases
(I) Valuable coniferous species replaced by
deciduous species
Fishing quota - catch size and composition
Protection against invasive species
Protection against new diseases
Anthropogenic loads
-
- Suitability of water for human consumption
and cattle
- (I) Toxin propogation in swimming water
- (I) Longer swimming season
- (I) Risks to snow and ice based tourism and
recreation
- (I) Diversification of tourism activities
- (I) Increased risk of contracting infectious
diseases
- Spatial planning along coastal and risk
areas
- (I) Water level rise in lakes connected with
the sea
- Adapt monitoring programmes
- Adapt research programmes
- (I) Research results implemented in practice
60
Task 2: Analyse normative acts and planning documents in the context of climate change
policies.
An analysis of EU and Latvian normative acts and planning documents in the context of
climate change impacts and adaptation was undertaken. The analysis was necessary to
understand at which levels (global, European, Latvian, sector) adaptation measures are
already proposed and for which climate change issues (based on Table 7.1.) further measures
need to be elaborated.
Results of the analysis of normative acts and planning documents in the context of
climate change policies.
The first conclusions arising from the analysis of Latvian normative documents are related to
content aspects of adaptation:
1. The main policy and planning documents of Latvia already require that the risks associated
with climate change be assessed. However, implementation through the Environmental
Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment procedures is limited relationships between anthropogenic and natural (for example, storms, dry periods, floods)
factors are excluded, as is an assessment of the magnitude of environmental impacts (the
impact of climate change). Therefore it is necessary to include climate change factors in
Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment procedures.
2. In relation to the degree of vulnerability, it is necessary to assess factors such as the
availability of water for human use/consumption, the geomorphologic and geologic
conditions associated with the water source (closely related with the risk of contamination
and disease migration) etc.
3.With respect to risks identified at the national policy level, equal consideration (and
following all relevant risk management principles) must also be given to environmental risks
and their possible impacts on ecosystems, as well as man-made environments and humans
themselves (health and well-being).
4. The cost of water does not include expected risks (external costs), but at the same time
consideration is given to the full water cycle (water taking, production, distribution,
collection etc.). It is necessary to take into account the full costs associated with water use
based on all of these criteria.
The second group of conclusions regarding the analysis of normative acts concerns the
governance process:
1. When selecting policy instruments, it is necessary to assess impacts, the level of
vulnerability, all possible risks must be identified, analysed and managed, an assessment
must be undertaken of responsible and otherwise involved stakeholder (organizations,
institutions, groups of stakeholders etc.) capacity and readiness to react to and manage risks,
it is necessary to identify and take all required preventative measures to avoid risks by
minimizing the likelihood and magnitude of these risks, and for the worst case scenario
through the creation of strategic reserves and an effective early warning system.
2. The most relevant preventative measures for adaptation policies and for the appropriate
selection and development of instruments is the implementation of necessary policy changes
61
and the creation of a system, as well as overall coordination (presently in many cases this is
totally missing):
•
Territory planning and development, including construction;
•
Water sector (including necessary changes in the EU Water Framework Directive,
which are already planned);
•
Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment
normative acts and procedures;
•
National Environmental Monitoring Programme, radically changing existing
monitoring from the principle of cause and effect to impact indicators, using not only
environmental indicators, but also socio-economic indicators; improving monitoring
would allow for the successful development of future scenarios and modelling of
possible solutions; presently such analyses and future scenarios are lacking;
•
Implementing coordinated management in protected nature territories and enforcing
requirements for protection zones;
•
Widely use aerial photography for the preparation of risk maps for the management of
environmental risk and territorial planning and development.
3. The inclusion of climate change risks in national civil protection systems through the
development of a monitoring system and preparation of risk maps (renewed on a regular
basis) would simply and eliminate the risk identification and evaluation (including financial)
process, elaborate the creation of various predictive and development models including those
systems that are related to assessment of climate change impacts on various ecosystems and
biodiversity, human health and well-being. Presently, this system is splintered and
incomplete as well as non-systematic in application.
4. Presently, in Latvia, the most comprehensively developed is the institutional system and
this systems response capacity and responsibilities in the event of natural catastrophes
(alongside other types of emergency situations) – this is part of the civil protection system
plan.
The following are conclusions from the analysis of global and European Union climate
change adaptation policy instruments:
1. The most appropriate adaptation policies and measures more or less have been identified.
However, researchers emphasize that the policies and measures should be implemented
taking into account the results of cost-benefit analyses (best technical means, use of
environmental management and energy management systems, environmental considerations
taken into account in decisions regarding consumption).
2. Flood risk management plans and flood risk maps should be integrated together with the
implementation of river basin management plans in accordance with the EU Water
Framework Directive (for example, all four river basins in Latvia are transboundary).
3. It is necessary to assess the effectiveness of protection policies of all transboundary river
basins with the help of hydrologic models, which are sensitive to an increase in the intensity
of extreme weather events.
62
4. As one type of adaptation measure, agriculture could be regulated with a new type of land
use policy, whereby in support of environmental protection water taking, disposal of
contaminated water and the use of land in areas susceptible to flooding or in water quality
protection zones could be subject to a tax surcharge.
5. Insurance measures are one of the most important adaptation instruments.
6. It is important to ensure adequate and comprehensive long-term climate change
monitoring.
7. The main areas in which governments should become involved in climate change
adaptation are: provision of information, education and training, emergency assistance,
dissemination of approaches and guidelines and provision of neccesary capacity,
infrastructure planning and development.
8. No matter how comprehensive may be the body of instruments used by the EU, only
political will to implement can ensure solidarity of reaction to grave and desperate situations
caused by natural catastrophes.
Scientific and economic significance of the results of the analysis of normative acts and
planning documents
The results of the analysis of normative acts and planning documents are of scientific value
for international comparisons, as it highlights the progress Latvia has made with respect to
the formulation of adaptation policy at the global level. The results of the anlysis will be the
basis for the research programme to make recommendations regarding adaptation policy
formulation and the improvement of existing policy weaknesses. Subsequently, the research
will focus on the relationship between practice and normative acts in order to formulate
recommendations for improvements.
Task 3: Undertake and compile results of a survey of municipal and other government
institutions.
The survey was needed to determine the views of stakeholders – municipality, river basin,
environmental and other sector institution specialists regarding the relevance of climate
change in Latvia with regards to the water environment and the need for adaptation measures
in the eyes of ”practitioners”. The survey was adapted from the International and European
Ecological Policy Institute Survey which in November 2006 was implemented in 25
European countries (Latvia did not participate in this survey).
Results of the Survey of Municipal and Relevant Institutions
Firstly, analysis of the results (78 respondents) showed that the level of awareness is high
(Figure 7.1.) and in Latvia, just as in other European countries, significant impacts from
climate change are expected.
63
Increase in number of dry events
48.8
Increase of flood intensity
48.2
25.6
37.3
42.2
Increase of flood events
Increased water temperature in surface water bodies
40.5
Increased runoff
38.8
Increased variability in runoff
36.6
Sea level rise
36.1
Increased ground water level
34.6
14.5
33.7
41
Decrease in ground water quality
25.6
24.1
51.8
7.2
27.4
32.7
41.2
20
48.8
14.6
54.2
9.6
28.2
37.2
Increased precipitation
30.6
41.2
28.2
Variability in strength of ice break-up flooding
30.4
41.8
27.8
Increased precipitation type variability
28.9
Decreased length of ice cover
28
Decrease in surface water quality
27.1
Precipitation decrease
21.5
Ground water level decrease
21.1
57.8
51.2
Decrease in the number of ice break-ups
16
Decrease of flood intensity
13.3
Increased number of ice break-ups
11.8
Decrease in flood events
11.8
Increased length of ice cover
10.5
0%
Changes will occur
50.6
34.2
11.7
44.7
71.4
28
56
4
82.7
22.1
64.9
12.2 4.1
Sea level decrease
8.2
27.8
13
Decrease in runoff
20.8
64.7
16.9
Decreased number of dry events
13.3
83.8
18.4
69.7
7.9
80.3
7.9
20%
81.6
40%
Changes exist
60%
80%
No changes expected
Figure 7.1. Stakeholder views on expected changes in water environment in Latvia
due to climate change, August – November 2007, n=87 respondents, percentage
64
100%
The assessment of the impact of climate change on the water environment revealed that,
those surveyed view almost all climate changes negatively. This is the typical attitude of
people when faced with any change, however in this case the assessment of the situation is
fairly accurate. The most concern is about the deterioration of water quality, as well as flood
events and dry periods. Only 1/3 of respondents indicated that within the last 5 years, to their
knowledge, a climate change adaptation measure had been implemented. The adaptation
measures noted are mostly technical reconstruction projects in the water and wastewater
sector.
If the survey undertaken in other European countries indicates that the EU Water Framework
Directive in some countries is viewed as a mechanism which is the basis and support for all
EU water policy instruments, then the survey in Latvia indicated that respondents
predominantly do not have an opinion regarding the role of the Water Framework Directive
in promoting adaptation measures.
Task 4: Foster dialogue between climate change and water resource researchers and
development planners, policy-makers in national institutions, municipal institutions and the
business sector.
Promotion of dialogue between research teams of the Programme and with stakeholders,
including national and municipal public authorities and entrepreneurs.
1. Promotion of the participation of stakeholders in research conferences and other events.
2. Dissemination of information regarding the research project to stakeholders in various
planning and other events.
Types of interventions with stakeholders: Interventions with stakeholders regarding
research results and the most effective adaptation measures can be undertaken in various
ways (Figure 7.2.):
a) ”from top to bottom” – cooperation between decision-makers and policy-makers
(Figure 7.2., A) to ensure that needed adaptation measures are included in normative
acts, and as a result are implemented at the local/municipal level;
b) ”from bottom to top” – cooperation with sector specialists and municipal employees
at the ”local” level (Figure 7.2.; B), so that the most effective adaptation measures are
implemented and with time integrated into state normative acts;
c) Cooperation with all levels of stakeholders (Figure 7.2.; C), to ensure that all
necessary adaptation measures are introduced into national normative acts and that at
the local level there would be awareness of the need for adaptation measures.
65
State institutions
(Cabinet of Ministers, sector
ministries)
A
C
C
National
Research
Programme
B
River basin
managementi
nstitutions,
sector
specialists
Municipalitie
s
Figure 7.2. Possible forms of cooperation between researchers and stakeholder
institutions
Results of Interventions with Stakeholders
The scientific relevance of the identification of impacts of climate change lies in the fact that
it is possible to propose specific research questions for natural science researchers and
modellers involved in the other work packages, and in practical terms aids in the
identification of relevant stakeholders with whom an on-going dialogue should be maintained
during the research project and in the process of developing recommendations for adaptation
policies. From a research perspective it is meaningful to compare climate change impacts at
the European scale. In the context of state governance the identification of climate change
impacts in Latvia is the basis for a better understanding concerning which impacts it is
important for Latvia to formulate its position at the EU and global level when policies and
normative acts are being formulated.
The results of the survey of municipalities and other relevant institutions are important as
they form the basis of an on-going dialogue between project researchers and stakeholders in
the subsequent phases of the project considering the existing knowledge and awareness level
of stakeholders regarding the need to adapt to climate change. The results of the survey are
also significant from a social, environmental sciences and environmental education
perspective, whereby stakeholder (practitioner) and researcher views regarding impacts of
climate change on the water environment in Latvia are compared.
Summary
In Phase 2 of Work Package 7 the foundations were laid for an on-going dialogue between
climate change and water resource researchers and state and municipal level specialists and
the business sector. The results of the analysis of normative acts and planning documents will
66
be the basis for the improvement of existing and the formulation of recommendations for new
climate change adaptation policies in Latvia. The practical nature of Phase 2 work explains
why to date publications have not been published. Publications will be forthcoming in
subsequent phases of research as results of other Work Packages become available.
WP7 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008):
1. Based on the results of the survey of municipal and state specialists an action plan for an
on-going dialogue between research programme researchers and practitioners will be
developed (Objective 2).
2. Continuation of dialogue between climate change and water resource researchers and state
and municipal level development planning specialists and the business sector.
3. Preparation of a publication on the results of the survey of state and municipal institution
specialists.
4. Ensure that the results of the research programme are integrated into the Latvian climate
change adaptation programme through participation in the work group.
Work Package Coordinator: Kristīne ĀboliĦa
67
Work Package 8: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH
Goals:
Ensure that the Program tasks are fulfilled successfully and in high quality. Facilitate the
development of the aquatic and climate change research in Latvia and its visibility on
national and international level.
Phase 2 tasks of WP8:
1. Scientific guidance of the Program, coordination of the WP work and everyday
management.
2. Organising of the Program’s annual conference (6 February 2007), and international
conference “Climate Change and Waters (Riga, 10-12 May 2007).
3. Preparation and publishing of the collection of papers “Climate Change in Latvia”.
4. Cooperation with the LV Ministry of the Environment in preparing of the climate
change adaptation policy.
5. Arranging of the International Advisory Board, and organizing of its 1st meeting.
6. Elaboration of the Programs’ public information strategy; publishing of the
information material; preparation of a popular brochure on the climate change in the
Baltic Region.
Phase 2 results of WP8:
Task 1: Scientific guidance of the Program, coordination of the WP work and everyday
management.
To better supervise Program’s work and secure the link between the central coordination
and the Work packages scattered in different research institutions and universities, the
Program bureau regularly arranges meetings of WP coordinators. In 2007, three such
meetings have already been held; one will be arranged till the end of Phase 2. The meeting
minutes are published in the Programs’ website.
Program bureau supervises distribution of the funds among the Work Packages and
research institutions involved in the program according to the agreement with the Latvian
Council of Science. It also secures preparation and submission of timely and correct finance
reports to the Latvian Council of Science.
Due to mismanagement of the research funding system at LCS, in the beginning of 2007,
the funds were delivered to the WPs in equal monthly increments, not according to the
specific funding schedule fixed in the Agreement. After intervention of the Program bureau
the cash flow normalized. Still, in some WPs (WP5 and WP6), beginning of the field
observations and the experimental work delayed due to the lack of necessary materials and
equipment in due time.
Task 2: Organising of Program’s annual conference (6 February 2007), and international
conference “Climate Change and Waters (Riga, 10-12 May 2007).
68
Program’s annual conference was held in the frames of the annual scientific conference of
University of Latvia. Session “Climate change and the waters of Latvia” took place on 6th
February, 2007. Altogether, the session attracted more than 80 participants representing 3
universities of Latvia, several research institutions, as well as governmental and municipal
authorities. Participants were presented with 19 oral papers and 15 posters dealing with the
topics of the character of the climate change and its impact on the environmental quality
and ecosystems of the inland waters of Latvia and the Baltic Sea.
On 10 – 12 May, Program hosted an international conference “Climate Change and Waters”
attended by scientists and representatives of the local and national governments. Altogether,
there were 125 participants representing 18 countries of the Baltic Sea region and EU.
During this conference, the research and practical activities towards adaptation to the
climate change in the Baltic Sea Region were presented to its participants. Apart of the
practical arrangements, the NRP KALME team actively participated in this conference by
giving the presentations and chairing several of its thematic sessions. In a way, this
conference marked the beginning of elaboration of the climate change adaptation policy in
Latvia with a focus on the aquatic issues.
Task 3: Preparation and publishing of the collection of papers “Climate Change in
Latvia”.
During the 2nd phase of the Program (2007) the former knowledge on the climate variability
in Latvia was compiled in a form of collection of papers. The 268-page book contains 18
articles prepared by 32 authors. Topics of the articles include character of the climate
change, its possible consequences, potential solutions and approach to the modelling. This
work includes also proposals and the nearest-time tasks for the environmental policy.
Task 4: Cooperation with the LV Ministry of the Environment in preparing of the climate
change adaptation policy.
To facilitate development of the Latvian climate change adaptation policy, Program
coordinators took part in the elaboration of Latvian position during the German presidency
in EU. The existing climate policy has been analysed, and the results achieved were
reviewed. A seminar to the representatives of the local governments (hosted by the NorthVidzeme Biosphere Reserve) was held to facilitate including of the CC aspects in the
process of spatial planning.
Task 5: Arranging of the International Advisory Board, and organizing of its 1st meeting.
To facilitate the scientific quality of the program and support its international visibility and
contacts with similar programs in other countries, the International Advisory Board of the
program has been formed. Prominent CC and water environment scientists from Estonia,
Finland, Germany and the Netherlands, as well as the representatives of the LV Ministry of
the Environment responsible for the National CC adaptation activities were invited to the
IAB. The first meeting of IAB was held in Riga, 11-12 May 2007. After reviewing of the
program tasks, the members of IAB put forward the following proposals to the Program:
-
WP2 and WP3 was suggested to take into account that even at insignificant
summary level of precipitation and runoff variations, its seasonality may alternate
significantly: re-occurrence of the low water periods and the associated risks may
increase;
69
-
It is necessary to strengthen the links between the modelling WP (1) and other WPs.
The current work division between WP1 and WP2 is not clear enough;
-
To take into account the possible shift in the output of RCM in relation to the input
data;
-
WP2 has been advised to increase the sampling frequency in the Berze drainage
basin to improve the quality of the modelling input data series;
-
While forecasting the flows of nutrients and organic carbon in the drainage basin it
is necessary to consider that CC and utilization of the renewable energy sources
(e.g. bio-fuel and peat) may alternate not only the hydrological regime but also the
land use;
-
WP3 has been advised to reconsider the spatial scale of their investigations to cover
one and the same areas by the studies of the nutrient transport and the studies of
aquatic communities. Findings of the KALME Program shall address the whole
territory of Latvia, therefore, the studied water bodies shall be representative
enough;
-
Within the context of CC, WP3 has been suggested to consider the issue of nonindigenous species in the inland waters. It has been advised to study together with
the WP6 how changes in the inland water ecosystems could potentially affect
biological invasions into the Baltic sea;
-
It is necessary that WP3 formulates the character of scenarios needed in order to
solve the prognostic tasks: averaged v. extreme values.
-
Shift in the spring-flood timing has been mentioned as potentially the most
significant factor that might influence the ecosystems of inland waters. WP3 and
WP9 shall pay attention to this fact.
-
WP4 and WP6 has been advised to study together how the intensified coastal
erosion could impact the coastal biological diversity and ecosystems;
-
WP5 was suggested to consider the possibility of 3D modelling of the
biogeochemical processes. The currently used box-model does not allow to
investigate the coastal and estuarine processes, which might have a specific
importance in the context of CC;
-
Program has been advised to strengthen the public information segment:
information campaigns shall be held at least twice a year. Each of the WP leaders
shall commit himself to prepare one popular presentation on his topic to the central
national media. Also, the Program has been advised to use services of the PR
professionals in its public information activities. Regrettably, the latter proposal
does not seem feasible within the current budget of the Program.
-
Program has been advised to strengthen the contacts with other CC research
programs and projects in Latvia and the Baltic region, as well as with the developers
of the CC adaptation action programmes.
The minutes of the IAB meeting have been published in the Program webpage. Next
meeting will convene in May 2008 to discuss the results of the 1st and 2nd Phases.
70
Task 6: Elaboration of Programs’ public information strategy; publishing of the
information material; preparation of a popular brochure on the climate change in the
Baltic Region.
Program’s webpage www.kalme.daba.lv has been created and is being updated regularly.
The website informs about the structure of program, its goals, and work tasks, and the work
progress. File archive of the website contains the most important documents and
publications of the Program, while the news section informs on actualities of CC in Latvia
and elsewhere. The webpage serves both as an external dissemination tool and as a means
of the internal communication among the members of the Program team.
A brochure informing about the initiation of the KALME Program has been published in
Latvian and English (500 ex. in each language).
During the reporting period program coordinators gave 9 interviews to the media on the CC
topics.
A text book “Climate Change and the Global Warming” (in Latvian) has been prepared and
published. The book discusses the character of the climate system formation, factors
affecting the climate, solutions for modelling of the climate variability. Book presents
original data on the climate of Latvia and its variability; it also gives some insight into the
climate technologies. Book has been published in the beginning of 2008.
The educational activities of the Program members included lecture course on applications
of GIS in the environmental science, as well as the lectures to students on the relationships
of the global climate and the Ocean, and climate change in the Baltic Region.
Summary.
WP8 tasks for the 3rd phase (2008).
-
Support to elaboration of the national CC adaptation program;
-
Preparation of the popular publications on different aspects of the climate change and
global warming;
-
Initiation of preparing for the international conference on CC in 2009 (ending of this
Program).
-
Work on development of the content of the environmental studies.
Work Package Coordinators: Andris Andrušaitis and Maris KĜaviĦš
71
Annexes
Annex1
Aggregated performance indicators and auditable values of the
Program.
Resultativity indicators and
auditable values
Monographs
Defended PhD theses
Young researchers, PhD and MSc
students involved in the program
Scientific publications in
international and local sources
Reports to media
Presentations at conferences
Created new methods
Organized conferences and
seminars
Recommendations for elaboration
of the environmental legislation;
participation in the decision-making
process and implementation of
these decisions
Created original maps
Acquired and built laboratory
devices
Number
1
3
40
38 articles
35 abstracts
19
48
6
3
12
7
13
72
Annex 2
Published and submitted papers by the Program team.
Collection of Papers.
Climate Change in Latvia (2007) (Ed. M.KĜaviĦš), Rīga: LU apgāds
Text book
ĀboliĦa K., Andrušaitis A.,.Blumberga D, Briede A., BruĦiniece I., Grišule G., KĜaviĦš
M. (2007) Klimata pārmaiĦas un globālā sasilšana (red. M.KĜaviĦš, A.Andrušaitis) Rīga:
LU apgāds (published in February 2008) [Climate Change and Global Warming], in Latvian.
Scientific papers
1. Aigars, J., Müller-Karulis, B., Martin, G., Jermakovs, V. 2007. Ecological quality
boundary-setting procedures: the Gulf of Riga case study. Environmental Monitoring
and Assessment, DOI 10.1007/s10661-007-9800-5
2. Andrén, E., Clarke, A., Telford, R., Wecström, K., Vilbaste, S., Aigars, J., Conley,
D., Johnsen, T., Juggins, S. and Korhola, A. (2007) Defining reference conditions for
coastal areas in the Baltic Sea. TemaNord 2007:583; Nordic Council of Ministers,
Copenhagen, ISBN 978-92-893-1569-2.
3. Andrušaitis A., KĜaviĦš M. (2007) Vides zinātne: klimata maiĦas reăionālā ietekme
uz ūdeĦu ekosistēmām un adaptācija tai. Zinātniski pētnieciskie raksti „Zinātne,
pētniecība un inovācija Latvijas izaugsmei”. Sējums 3 (14) 2007. -Rīga:
Apgāds”Zinātne”, 142 -162.lpp.
4. BērziĦa, L., Zujevs, A., Sudārs, R., Jansons, V., LagzdiĦš, A. (2007). Fosfora
indekss, tā pielietojuma iespējas lauksaimniecības zemju fosfora zudumu riska
novērtēšanai Latvijā. Monogrāfija: Lauksaimniecības un pārtikas risku vadība.
Jelgava, 2007, 504.-524. lpp., in Latvian [Phosphorus index and its application in
assessment of phosphorus loss risk from the agricultural lands]
5. Bethers U., SeĦĦikovs J. (2007). Mathematical modelling of the hydrology for the
Aiviekste River Basin. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia, pp.96 – 118.
6. Birzaks, J. (2007) Latvijas iekšējo ūdeĦu zivju resursi un to izmantošana. Latvijas
zivsaimniecības gadagrāmata, 66.- 82. lpp., in Latvian [Fish resources of the Latvian
inland waters and their exploitation]
7. Briede A., Lizuma L. (2007) Long-term variability of precipitation in the territory of
Latvia. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia. pp.35-44
8. Briede, A. (2007) Long-term variability of precipitationin the territory of Latvia. In:
KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia, LU, pp. 35 – 44.
73
9. Briede, I. (2007) Zivju lipīgās un nelipīgās slimības. Latvijas zivsaimniecības
gadagrāmata 2007. lpp.137 – 143. In Latvian [Infectious and non-infectious fish
diseases].
10. BruĦeniece I., Bisters V., KĜaviĦš M. (2007) Climate change policy instruments in
Latvia.
11. Casini, M., Hjelm, J., Lövgren, J., Cardinale, M. and Kornilovs, G. (2007). Multilevel trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem, (iesniegts
Nature).
12. Conley, D.J., Humborg, C., Smedberg, E., Rahm, L., Papush, L., Danielsson, Å.,
Clarke, A., Pastuszak, M., Aigars, J., Ciuffa, D., Mörth, C.-M. Past, present and
future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea. Journal of Marine
Systems, (submitted)
13. Druvietis, I., A. Briede, L. Grīnberga, E. Parele,V. Rodinovs, G. SpriĦăe.
(2007) Long term assessment of hydroecocystem of the River Salaca, North Vidzeme
biosphere reserve, Latvia. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia, LU, pp.
173 – 185.
14. Eberhards G., Grīne I., Lapinskis J., Purgalis I., Saltupe B. Coastal Change in
Latvia during the 20-th century and development trends during the last 15 years.
BALTICA (in press).
15. Eero, M., Köster, F.W., Plikshs, M. and Thurow, F. 2007. Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus
morhua callarias ) stock dynamics: Extending the analytical assessment back to the
mid-1940s. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 1257-1271.
16. Grišule G., Briede A. (2007) Phenological time series in Latvia as climate change
indicators. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia. pp.144-153
17. Gruberts D., 2007. Effect of floods on phytoplankton communities in aspect of river
monitoring: a case of the Middle Daugava River (South-east Latvia). Arch.
Hydrobiol. Suppl. 161/3-4, 487-510, in press.
18. Gruberts D., Druvietis I., Parele E., Paidere J., Popels A., Škute A. 2007.
Impact of flooding on limnological characteristics of shallow floodplain lakes in
Latvia. Hydrobiologia, 584:223-237
19. Gruberts D., Druvietis I., Parele E., Paidere J., Poppels A., Prieditis J., Škute A.,
2007. Impact of hydrology on aquatic communities of floodplain lakes along the
Daugava River (Latvia). In: Gulati R. D., Lammens E., De Pauw N., Van Donk E.
(eds.) Developments in Hydrobiology 196. Shallow Lakes in a Changing World.
Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Shallow Lakes, Dalfsen, The
Netherlands, 5-9 June 2005, 223-237. Reprinted from Hydrobiologia, Vol. 584
(2007).
20. Jansons, V., Abramenko, K., Timbare, R., LagzdiĦš A., Vircavs, V. (2007).
Lauksaimniecības izraisītā nitrātu piesārĦojuma riska analīze Latvijā. Monogrāfija:
Lauksaimniecības un pārtikas risku vadība. Jelgava, 2007, 525.-543. lpp., in Latvian
[Analysis of the agriculture – caused nitrate pollution in Latvia].
74
21. Kirjušina, M., I. Briede, M. G. Bondad-Reantaso (2007) Rokasgrāmata par dažām
svarīgākajām Latvijas zivju vīrusu, parazītu un baktēriju ierosinātām slimībām.
NDC/LZRA/FAO. Rīga, Latvija. 70 lpp. In Latvian [Handbook on the most important
virus bacterial and parasite-caused fish diseases in Latvia].
22. Klavins M., Rodinov V. (2007) Long term changes of hydrological processes in
inland waters of Latvia. In: Proceedings of the 3rd. International Conference on
Climate and water „Climate & Water”, Helsinki (Finland), 239 – 244
23. Klavins, M., Rodinov, V. (2007) Long term changes of hydrological regime of rivers
in Latvia. Nordic Hydrology (accepted for publication).
24. KĜaviĦš M., Briede A., Rodinovs V. (2007) Ice regime of river in Latvia in relation
to climatic variability and North Atlantic Oscillation. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate
Change in Latvia. pp.58-72
25. KĜaviĦš M., Rodinov V., Draveniece A. (2007) Large scale atmospheric circulation
processes as a driving force at the climatic turning points and regime shifts in the
Baltic region. Proc. Latv. Acad. Sci, B., 61 (3/4), 83-90
26. KĜaviĦš M., Rodinovs V. (2007) Long-term changes of river discharge regime in
Latvia. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia. Pp.21-34
27. KĜaviĦš M., Rodinovs V., Draveniece A. (2007) Large-scale atmospheric circulation
processes as the driving force in the climatic turning points and regime shifts in the
Baltic Region. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia. Pp.45-57
28. KĜaviĦš, M., A. Briede, V. Rodinovs (2007) Ice regime of rivers in Latvia in relation
to climate variability and North Atlantic Oscillation. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate
Change in Latvia, LU, pp. 58 – 72.
29. LagzdiĦš, A., Jansons, V., Abramenko, K. “ ŪdeĦu kvalitātes standartu noteikšana
pēc biogēno elementu koncentrācijas lauksaimniecībā izmantotajās platībās”. LLU
Rakstos iesniegta publikācija, in Latvian. [Estimation of water quality standards
according to the concentrations of nutrients in the agricultural lands].
30. Lizuma L., KĜaviĦš M., Briede A., Rodinovs V. (2007) Long-term changes of air
temperatures in Latvia. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia. Pp.11-20
31. Möllmann, C., Müller-Karulis, B., St. John, M.A. 2007. Effects of climate and
overfishing on zooplankton dynamics and ecosystem structure – regime shifts, trophic
cascade and feedback loops in a simple ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science,
(submitted).
32. Olli, K., Clarke, A., Danielsson, Å, Aigars, J., Conley, D.J., Tamminen, T. 2007.
Diatom stratigraphy and long term dissolved silicate concentration in the Baltic Sea.
Journal of Marine Systems, (submitted)
33. Paidere J, D. Gruberts, Škute A., Druvietis I. 2007. Impact of two different flood
pulses on planktonic communities of the largest floodplain lakes of the Daugava
River (Latvia). Hydrobiologia. 592:303-314.
75
34. SpriĦăe, G., A. Briede, I. Druvietis, E. Parele, V. Rodinovs (2007) Changes of the
hydroecosystem of lagoon lake Engure, Latvia. In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change
in Latvia, LU, pp. 193 – 209.
35. SpriĦăe, G., M. KĜaviĦš, J. Birzaks, A. Briede, I. Druvietis, L. Eglīte, L.
Grīnberga, A. Skuja (2007) Climate change and its impacts in inland surface waters.
In: KĜaviĦš M. (ed.) Climate Change in Latvia, LU, pp. 123 – 144.
36. Tomczak, M.T., Järv, L., Kotta, J., Martin, G., Minde, A., Müller-Karulis, B.,
Põllumäe, A., Razinkovas, A., Strāėe, S. 2007. Analysis of trophic networks and
carbon flows in South Eastern Baltic costal ecosystems. (In preparation for Progress
in Oceanography)
37. Ustups D., Uzars D. and Müller – Karulis B. 2007. Size structure and feeding
ecology of fish communities in the surf zone of the Eastern Baltic. Proceedings of
Latvian Academy of Science. Section B (accepted)
38. Ustups, D., Uzars, D. and Müller-Karulis, B. 2007. Structure and feeding ecology
of the fish community in the surf zone of the Eastern Baltic Latvian Coast.
Proceedings of the Latvian Academy of Sciences. Section B, Vol. 61, No. 3 (650), pp.
20–30.
76
Abstracts
1. Abramenko, K., LagzdiĦš, A. ŪdeĦu kvalitātes modelēšana Bērzes upes baseinā.
Ăeogrāfija, Ăeoloăija, Vides zinātne: Referātu tēzes. LU 65. konference Rīga:
Latvijas Universitāte, 2007, 253.- 257. lpp., in Latvian [Modelling of water quality in
the drainage basin of Berze River].
2. Aigars, J., Müller-Karulis, B., Jermakovs, V., Ledaine, I. Response curves for
ecological class boundary definition the Gulf of Riga case study. Baltic Sea Science
Conference, 2007.
3. Berzina, L., Sudārs, R., Paura, L. Time series analysis with applications to water
pollution with nitrogen in nitrate vulnerable zones. – NBBC07 First Nordic-Baltic
Biometric Conference Book, 2007, pp. 15.
4. Berzina, L., Sudārs, R., Time series analysis with applications to water pollution with
nitrogen from point sources in Latvia. – NJF 23rd Congress Proceedings Trends and
Perspectives in Agriculture Copenhagen, June 26. -.29, 2007 ISSN 1653-2015, 2007,
pp. 299-300.
5. Birzaks, J. (2007) The river fish communities structure – results of biodiversity
monitoring.. In: 4th International conference “Research and conservation of biological
diversity in Baltic region”. Book of abstracts. Daugavpils.
6. Briede, A., Springe, G. and Skuja, A. 2007. “High quality stream habitats in Latvia
and role of environmental factors for benthic macroinvertebrates. – In: Fifth
Symposium for European Freshwater Sciences (SEFS 5). Programme and abstracts.
Palermo, Italy, 2007: 185.
7. Gruberts D. Daugavas palieĦu ezeru ekoloăiskie pētījumi – pašreizējais stāvoklis un
nākotnes perspektīvas. Abstr. Latvijas Universitātes 65. zinātniskā konference.
Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi, Rīga, LU, 02.06.2007., lpp. 276 – 277, in Latvian
[Ecological investigations of the Daugava river floodplain lakes – current status and
future perispectives].
8. Gruberts D., 2007. Hydrological connectivity and biological diversity of
phytoplankton communities of floodplain lakes of the middle Daugava. In: 4th
International Conference “Research and Conservation of Biological Diversity in
Baltic Region”, Daugavpils, 25-27 April 2007. Book of Abstracts. Daugavpils
University, Academic Press “Saule”, p. 42.
9. Gruberts D., 2007. The flood pulse concept in the ecology of floodplain lakes of the
middle Daugava River. SEFS-5 Symposium for European Freshwater Sciences.
Programme and Abstracts. Palermo, Italy, July 8-13, 2007, University of Palermo, p.
62.
10. Grunskis M. Daugavas palienes ezeru hidroloăiskā režīma ietekme uz
makrozoobentosu. Abstr. Latvijas Universitātes 65. zinātniskā konference. Klimata
mainība un ūdeĦi, Rīga, LU, 02.06.2007., lpp. 278 – 279. In Latvian [Impact of the
hydrological regime on the macrozoobenthos of Daugava floodplain lakes].
77
11. JuhĦeviča V., Soms J. 2007. GruntsūdeĦu piesārĦojums kā vides stāvokĜa indikators
Bebrenes pagastā. Latvijas Universitātes 65.zinātniskās konferences tēzes. Sējums
“Ăeogrāfija. Ăeoloăija. Vides zinātne”. –Rīga, LU akad.apgāds, 2007. 280 -281.lpp.
in Latvian [Groundwater pollution as an indicator of the environmental condition in
Beblene parish]
12. Klavins M., Rodinov V. (2007) River discharge regimes in Latvia in respect to
climate variability. In: Proceedings of the 5th Study conference on BALTEX,
Kuressare (Estonia), 162-164
13. KĜaviĦš M. (2007) Klimata mainības ietekmes uz Latvijas virszemes ūdeĦu režīma
un kvalitātes ilgtermiĦa izmaiĦu raksturu. LU 65 konferences tēzes. „Ăeogrāfija,
ăeoloăija, vides zinātne”, 290-291. In Latvian [Climate change impact on the
character of long-term changes in regime of the surface waters of Latvia]
14. Kokorite, I., M. Klavins, V. Rodinov (2007) Flows of dissolved organic matter from
territory of Latvia in conditions of changing environment. Book of abstracts ASLO
Aquatic Sciences meeting. Santaphe, New Mexico, USA, February 04-09, p.98
15. Lapinskis J., Krasta nogāzes pārveidošanās pēc vētras. LU 65.zinātniskā konference.
Ăeoloăija. Ăeogrāfija. Vides zinātne. Referātu tēzes. Rīga .2007, 1.februāris, 157.lpp.
[Transformation of the coastal slope after storm].
16. LagzdiĦš, A., Jansons, V., Abramenko, K. (2007) „Assessment of Water Quality
Concerning Phosphorus in Agricultural Run-off”. Proceedings of
the 5th
International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW5) pp.313.-.315.
17. LagzdiĦš, A., Jansons, V., Abramenko, K. (2007) „Classification of the Water
Quality for Nutrients in Agricultural Run – off”. Proceedings of Fifth Study
Conference on Baltex, No. 38, pp. 202. – 203.
18. LagzdiĦš, A., Jansons, V., Abramenko, K. ŪdeĦu kvalitātes vērtēšana
lauksaimniecībā izmantotajās platībās pēc biogēno elementu koncentrācijas.
Ăeogrāfija, Ăeoloăija, Vides zinātne: Referātu tēzes. LU 65. konference. Rīga: LU,
2007, 292.- 293. lpp. In Latvian [Assesment of the water quality in agricultural areas
according to nutrient concentrations]
19. Müller-Karulis, B., Möllmann, C., Diekmann R, Flinkman J, Kornilov G., Plikshs,
M., Gardmark A., Margonski P. Axe P. Analyses of ecosystem state and development
as a basis for ecosystem-based management of the Baltic Sea – results of the
ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic. ICES
Annual Science Conference 2007.
20. Müller-Karulis, B., Möllmann, C., Plikšs, M., KorĦilovs, G. Svarīgākie signāli
Baltijas jūras un Rīgas līča vides monitoringa datu rindās: 1973-2004. LU 65.
Zinātniskā Konference, 2007. In Latvia [The most prominent signals in the data series
of the Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea]
21. Paidere J. 2007. Comparison zooplankton abundance, biomass and community
structure in the River Daugava and two River Daugava floodplain lakes within
different hydrological conditions. Proc. 4th International conference “Research and
78
conservation of biological diversity in Baltic region”, Daugavpils, Latvia, April 25 –
27, p.80
22. Paidere J., Gruberts D., 2007. Zooplanktona kvantitatīvās un kvalitatīvās izmaiĦas
Daugavas palieĦu ezeros. Abstr. Latvijas Universitātes 65. zinātniskā konference.
Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi, Rīga, lpp. 299 – 302. In Latvian [Quantitative and
qualitative changes of zooplankton in the floodplain lakes of Daugava].
23. Paidere J., Škute A., 2007. Impact of the flood regime on the zooplankton density
and community composition in the Daugava River, Latvia. Abstr. Fifth Symposium
for European Freshwater Sciences. Palermo, Italy, June 8 – 13, p.237
24. Parele, E. (2007) The analysis of long-term observations of zoobenthos organisms
structure of the Lake Engures. In: UL 65 scientific conference. Geography. Geology.
Environmental Science. Book of abstracts, Riga: 309-319.
25. Skuja, A. (2007) Caddisfly Trichoptera drift characterisation in the dominating
habitats of small streams in Latvia (preliminary results). – In: Fifth Symposium for
European Freshwater Sciences (SEFS 5). Programme and abstracts. Palermo, Italy,
2007: 250.
26. Skuja, A. (2007) Dynamics of Trichoptera daytime drift in the most representatives
biotopes of Latvian small streams (the results of pre-investigations). In: UL 65
scientific conference. Geography. Geology. Environmental Science. Book of
abstracts, Riga: 327-328.
27. Skuja, A. (2007) The spatial distribution of the caddisfly Trichoptera communities in
the microhabitats of Tumsupe stream in Latvia. In: 4th International conference
“Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic region”. Book of
abstracts. Daugavpils: 110.
28. Skuja. A. (2007) “MaksteĦu Trichoptera drifta diennakts dinamika Latvijas mazo
upju raksturīgākajos mikrobiotopos (priekšizpētes rezultāti)”. - Latvijas Universitātes
65. Zinātniskā konference, Ăeogrāfija, Ăeoloăija, Vides zinātne, referātu tēzes, Rīga:
327-328. In Latvian [Diurnal dynamics of the drift of Trichoptera larvae in the
characteristic micro-biotopes of the small rivers of Latvia].
29. Soms J., 2007. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on bed and bank erosion in
stream channels and the resulting sediment delivery to the river Daugava. The 3rd
International Conference “Climate Change and waters”. Book of abstracts. –Rīga, –
p.1430. Soms J., 2007. Klimata izmaiĦu iespējamā ietekme uz sedimentu un biogēnu plūsmu
hidrogrāfiskā tīkla augšējos posmos: Augšdaugavas piemērs. Latvijas Universitātes
65.zinātniskās konferences tēzes. Sējums “Ăeogrāfija. Ăeoloăija. Vides zinātne”. –
Rīga, LU akad.apgāds, 2007. 328.-330.lpp. in Latvian [Potential impact of the climate
change on flows of sediments and nutrients in the upper segments of the
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31. Soms J., 2007. Morphology and controlling factors of landslide cirque gullies: a case
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79
Erosion Reserarch”. Eds. J.Casali & R.Gimenez. IV International Symposium on
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32. Soms J., 2007. Potential impact of climate change on sediment and nutrient flux
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in a Changing World: the Soils of Tomorrow”. Book of abstracts. –Palermo, Italy,
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33. Škute R., Škute A., Kadakovska E., 2007. Daugavas zooplanktona dinamika. Abstr.
Latvijas Universitātes 65. zinātniskā konference. Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi, Rīga,
LU, 02.06.2007., lpp. 330 – 331. In Latvian [Zooplankton dynamics in river
Daugava].
34. Ziverts A., Bakute A., Apsite E. (2007) The Application of the Conceptual Model
Metq2006 for the River Iecava Basin as Case Study in Latvia. Proceedings of the 5th
Study Conference on BALTEX, June 4.- 8., Kuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia, pp.74.
35. Ziverts A., Bakute A., Apsite E. (2007) The Application of the Conceptual Model
METQ for Simulation of Daily Runoff and Water Level for the Watershed of Lake
Burtnieks. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Climate and Water,
September 3-6, Marina Congress Centre, Helsinki, Finland, pp. 561-566.
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5. BērziĦš, V.un Minde, A. 2007. Ūdens temperatūras dinamika Rīgas jūras līča
piekrastē un ar to saistītās ihtiofaunas izmaiĦas 2004.–2006.gadā. LU 65. zinātniskās
konferences sekcijas sēde „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”, (referāts). In Latvian
[Dynamics of the water temperature in the coastal area of the Gulf of Riga, and the
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80
7. Bethers U., SeĦĦikovs J., Timuhins A. “Aiviekstes baseina hidroloăijas
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modelling of the hydrology of the Aiveikste drainage basin].
8. Bethers U., SeĦĦikovs J., Timuhins A., Gaideliene J. The physically-based scalable
catchment and river runoff model application to the Latvian rivers. USGS General
Assembly, Vienna, Apr-2007.
9. Birzaks, J. The river fish communities structure - results of biodiversity monitoring.
4th International Conference „Research and conservation of biological diversity in
Baltic Region”, University of Daugavpils, 2007, April 25-27.
10. Briede, A. Klimata pārmaiĦu raksturojošie parametri Latvijā. Seminārs par adaptāciju
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11. Briede, A. SpriĦăe G., Kūle L.and KĜaviĦš M. Results of the Salaca River Basin
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KĜaviĦš, J. Lapinskis. Climate change and it’s impacts in Latvia. The 3rd
International ASTRA and KALME conference “Climate change and waters”, Riga,
May 10-11, 2007.
13. Briede, A., Springe, G., Skuja, A. High quality stream habitats in Latvia and role of
environmental factors for benthic macroinvertebrates. 5th Symposium for European
freshwater sciences, Palermo, July 8-13, 2007
14. Briede, I. Report to Working Group on Pathology and Diseases of Marine Organisms
(WGPDMO)) 20.-24. March, 2007, Tenerife, Spānija.
15. Druvietis, I. „Lentisku hidroekosistēmu fitoplanktona sabiedrību strukturāli
funkcionālās sezonālās izmaiĦas” LU 65. zinātniskā konference, Rīga, 2007.g.
februāris. In Latvian [Seasonal changes in the structure and function of the
phytoplankton of the lentic systems].
16. Druvietis, I. Climate driven changes on phytoplankton communities structure and
algae species seasonal development in Latvia's freshwaters. 5th Symposium for
European freshwater sciences, Palermo, July 8-13, 2007
17. Druvietis, I., A. Briede, L. Grīnberga, E. Parele, V. Rodinov, G. SpriĦăe "Longterm assessment of hydroecosystem of the River Salaca, North Vidzeme Biosphere
Reserve, Latvia" The 3rd International ASTRA conference “Climate change and
waters”, Riga, May 10-11
18. Eberhards G. Piekrastes erozijas problēmas Latvijā, prognozējamie procesi un
iespējamie aizsardzības pasākumi. Latvijas piekrastes pašvaldību apvienības
pašvaldību vadītāju sanāksme. Jūrkalne, 2007, 8.jūnijs In Latvian. [Problems of
coastal erosion in Latvia, expected processes and possible protection measures.]
19. Eglite, L., Klavins M., Peuravuari J., Sire J., Purmalis O. (2007) Complex
characterization of dissolved organic matter isolated from surface waters of Latvia.
ASLO 2007 Aquatic Sciences meeting Santa Fe
81
20. Grīnberga L. Impacts on aquatic vegetation under climate changes in Latvia: case
study of the river Salaca. European Vegetation Survey, Roma, Italy, March 22 -26,
2007
21. Grinberga, L., Urtans, A., Springe, G., Engele, L. Aquatic macrophytes in high
quality lowland streams of Latvia. 5th Symposium for European freshwater sciences,
Palermo, July 8-13, 2007
22. Ikauniece, A., Jermakovs, V. and Aigars, J. Forecasting the future for a cladoceran
Bosmina longispina, Gulf of Riga, Eastern Baltic Sea. 4th International Zooplankton
Symposium ”Human and climate forcing of zooplankton populations”, Hiroshima,
Japan May 28-June 1, 2007. (stenda referāts)
23. Jansons V., Abramenko K., LagzdiĦš A., „Water quality modelling in Berze
River”. NJF (ZiemeĜvastu Lauksaimniecības zinātnieku asociācija) seminārs Nr. 398
“Modelling in Agriculture”. LLU. Jelgava. 18.11. 2007.
24. Kaljuste, O., Shvetsov, F., Strods, G. and Berzinsh, V. 2007. Acoustical studies on
geographical distribution pattern of the Gulf of Riga herring population. 2nd
International conference and Exhibition: Underwater Acoustic Measurements:
Technologies & Results, 25.-29.06.2007, Heraklion, Crete, Greece. (referāts)
25. Klavins M., Rodinov V. (2007) Impact of climate change on long-term changes of
aquatic chemistry of inland water quality in Latvia. In: Abstracts of the 17th Annual
meeting of SETAC „Multiple stressors for the environment and human health present
and future challenges and perspectives”, Porto, Portugal, 284
26. Kokorite, I., Klavins M., Rodinov V.: Flows of dissolved organic matter from
territory of Latvia in conditions of changing environment. ASLO Aquatic Sciences
meeting. Santaphe, Newmexic, USA, February 04-09, 2007
27. Kokorite, I., KĜaviĦš M., Skuja A., Druvietis I. (2007) Development of water
bodies at the peat extraction sites in the Seda mire. 4th International Conference
„Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic Region”, University of
Daugavpils, 2007, April 25-27.
28. LagzdiĦš A., Jansons V., Abramenko K. “ŪdeĦu kvalitātes vērtēšana
lauksaimniecībā izmantotajās platībās pēc biogēno elementu koncentrācijas”. Latvijas
Universitātes 65. zinātniskās konferences sekcijā „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”.
30.01.2007. In Latvian [Assesssment of the quality of the water in the agricultural
lands according to concentrations of nutrients].
29. LagzdiĦš A., Jansons V., Abramenko K. „Classification of the Water Quality for
Nutrients in Agricultural Run – off”. LLU Doktorantu “The International Scientific
Conference “Research for Rural Development 2007”. Jelgava. 16. – 18.05.2007.
30. LagzdiĦš A., Jansons V., Abramenko K. „Classification of the Water Quality for
Nutrients in Agricultural Run – off”. Postera ziĦojums 5th Study Conference on
BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment), Kuressaare, Estonia , 4.- 8. 06.2007.
31. Lapinskis J. Krasta nogāzes pārveidošanās pēc vētras. LU 65.zinātniskā konference.
Rīga, LU, 2007, 1.februāris In Latvian. [Transformation of the coastal slope after the
storm].
82
32. M.KĜaviĦš (2007) Organic carbon flows and loading to waters. 4th International
Conference „Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic Region”,
University of Daugavpils, 2007, April 25-27.
33. Minde, A. and Berzins, V. Upwelling induced changes in coastal fish community
structure at an exposed Baltic Sea coast.ECI XII European Congress of Ichthyology,
Cavtat (Dubrovnik), Croatia 9–15 September 2007. (referāts)
34. Mitāns, A. ZiĦojums „Aquaculture Europe 07”, Istanbul, October, 2007.
35. Parele, E. „Ilggadīgo zoobentosa organismu sastāva novērojumu analīze Engures
ezerā”. LU 65. zinātniskā konference, Rīga, 2007.g. februāris In Latvian. [Long-term
observations of zoobenthos composition in Lake Engure].
36. Plikšs, M. un Müller-Karulis, B. 2007. Baltijas mencas (Gadus morhua callarias
L.) paaudžu ražības samazināšanās pēdējās desmitgadēs: hidroloăiskā režīma izmaiĦu
vai pārzvejas rezultāts? LU 65. zinātniskās konferences sekcijas sēde „Klimata
mainība un ūdeĦi”(stenda referāts). In Latvian. [Recent year decline of the year-class
strength of the Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.): impact of the oceanographic
changes or a result of overfishing?]
37. PurviĦa S., PuriĦa I., Pfeifere M., Bārda I., KaĜinka E., Balode M., 2007. Klimata
izmaiĦu prognozējamā ietekme uz Baltijas jūras fitocenozi. LU 65. Zinātniskā
konferences sekcijas sēde „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi” (stenda referāts). In Latvian
[Potential impact of the climate change on the phytoplankton community of the Baltic
Sea].
38. SeĦĦikovs J., Timuhins A. Mathematical modelling for hydrological processes of
Aiviekste river basin. ASTRA konference. Mai-2007, Rīga.
39. Skuja, A. “The spatial distribution of the caddisfly Trichoptera communities in the
microhabitats of Tumsupe stream in Latvia”. 4th International Conference „Research
and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic Region”, University of Daugavpils,
2007, April 25-27.
40. Skuja, A. “MaksteĦu Trichoptera drifta diennakts dinamika Latvijas mazo upju
raksturīgākajos mikrobiotopos (priekšizpētes rezultāti)” LU 65. zinātniskā
konference, Rīga, 2007.g. februāris In Latvian [see the following]
41. Skuja, A. Caddisfly Trichoptera drift characterisation in the dominating habitats of
small streams in Latvia (preliminary results). 5th Symposium for European freshwater
sciences, Palermo, July 8-13, 2007
42. Soms J., 2007. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on bed and bank erosion
in stream channels and the resulting sediment delivery to the River Daugava. The 3rd
International ASTRA Conference “Climate change and waters”, Riga, Latvia, May
10 – 12, 2007
43. Ustups D., Müller – Karulis B., Plikshs M. and Makarchouk A. The influence of
environmental conditions on the year-class strength of the eastern-Gotland flounder
(Platichthys flesus) in the Baltic Sea” PICES/ICES Conference on New Frontiers in
Marine Science, Baltimore, USA, 25.-29. 2007. (stenda referāts)
83
44. Ustups D., Uzars D. and Karulis-Muller B. Size – specific diet and trophic relations
of the flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) in the Eastern Baltic, ECI XII Congress, Cavtat
(Dubrovnik), Croatia, 9-15 September 2007. (stenda referāts)
45. Valainis A., Bethers U., SenĦikovs J.Current measurements in nearshore area:
autumn-2006. Balric Sea Scientific conference. Rostock, Mar-2007.
46. Ziverts A., Bakute A., Apsite E. (2007) The Application of the Conceptual Model
METQ for Simulation of Daily Runoff and Water Level for the Watershed of Lake
Burtnieks. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Climate and Water,
September 3-6, Marina Congress Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
47. Ziverts A.,. Bakute A, Apsite E. The Application of the Conceptual Model Metq2006
for the River Iecava Basin as Case Study in Latvia. ASTRAS starptautiskā konference
"Climate Changes and water", Rīga, 10.-12.05.2007,
48. Zujevs A., Berzina L. Designing P Index Estimation Model by Multiobjective
Optimization Genetic Algorithms. - NJF seminārs 398 Modelling in Agriculture, LLU
Latvia. 18.-20.10. 2007.
Participation in the international PhD courses
1. Abramenko K., LagzdiĦš A., Vircavs V. International course on modelling of water
quality by use of „Fyris”, „SoilNDB”, „ICECREAM” hydrochemical models.
Swedish Agricultural University. Uppsala. 16.- 20. 4. 2007.
2. BērziĦa L. NATO Science for Peace program. Institute on Uncertainties in
environmental modelling and consequences for decision making. Vrsar, Croatia.
30.10. - 11.11. 2007
84
Annex 3
Program Performance Indicators
WP No. Workpackage results
DP1
Quantitative scenarios of the
climate change impacts
Performance indicator
Data series
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
1
4
2
6
2
1
Forecast of the influence of
Data series
climate change on rive runoff and
its seasonal and long-term
change
Model analysis
Publications
Regionally adapted drainage
Understanding of the
basin model (discharge, nutrient hydrological and nutrient
runoff)
cycles in surface waters.
Projection of the nutrient loading Mathematical model (method)
Publications
Data series
Regionally adapted 3D marine
state model
Understanding of the
interrelationships of marine
state parameters
Mathematical model (method)
3D calculations of the Gulf of
Riga for 50-100 year periods
1
Publications
3-5
Conferences
1
New knowledge about
influence of the CC on the
status, variability of seasonal
cycles and long-term
alternations in the marine and
inland waters.
Publications
3-5
Conferences
1
85
1
WP No. Workpackage results
WP2
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Hydrological and hydrochemical Creation of the long-term data
models of the river basins are
series for hydrochemical
calibrated
modelling is commenced.
Models calibrated for the
conditions of Latvia are usable
for management of the water
bodies and forecast of the CC
influences.
CC impact on the discharge of
diffuse pollution into the Rivers
of Latvia is estimated
WP3
Performance indicator
Projections of the impact of CC
on the ecosystems of the inland
waters. Advice for adaptation to
CC in the protected areas.
Assessment of change in species
diversity in relation to the CC.
Selection of the indicator species
for characterization of the
environmental quality.
Scientific publications
2
Recommendations to LV
Geology Meteorology and
Environment Agency
2
2
Understanding of the character
of changes and amount of the
diffuse pollution.
Scientific publications
1
2
Recommendations to Ministry
of Agriculture
1
1
Scientific publications
3
2
Recommendations to Ministry
of Environment
1
1
Scientific publications
1
1
Recommendations for water
protection legislation, assessment
of water quality and protection.
2
3
Understanding of the
character of CC impact on the
aquatic ecosystems and
solutions on mitigation of the
adverse effects
Elaboration of the biological
indicators of CC
86
Assessment of CC influence on
the fish communities of river
Salaca (populations of wild
salmon and other migratory
fishes), CC induced changes in
fisheries.
WP No. Workpackage results
Preparation of the LV national
report to ICES WGBAST
Performance indicator
Research publications.
WP4
Scenarios of the potential changes in
Latvian coastal strip, and assessment
of the risk of the economic activity,
culture/history and other objects
located there in the near future (till
2050)
1
1
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
2
2
Assessment of the coastal
processes and identification of the
most endangered significant
objects and areas.
Recommendations to the
government and municipal
authorities.
Research publications.
1
3-5
Digital maps of the contemporary
processes of the coasts of Latvia:
Visualization of the coastal
processes and risks.
a)projection maps for the cases of
extreme storms;
Cartographic material
4
b)map of main erosion risk zones;
Recommendations
1
c)map of the contemporary coastal
geological processes;
d)map of the protected nature area
in the coastal strip;
e)map of the significant objects in
the coastal erosion risk zone.
Recommendations for the purposes
of coastal planning, territorial
planning of municipalities,
management activities and
protection.
Development of dialogue with
governmental and municipal
authorities.
Proposals for the national
planning.
Proposals for development of the
environmental monitoring
program.
87
1
1
7
WP No. Workpackage results
DP5
New information on influence of the
regime-forming parameters on the
biogeochemical processes in the
Gulf of Riga.
Projections of the environmental
quality and productivity of the Gulf
of Riga till 2100 for each of the
selected CC scenarios.
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Scientific publications.
2
3
Data sets to be assimilated into
the model
1
A model of the Gulf of Riga
allowing to forecast evolution of
the nutrient system at various CC
scenarios with appropriate level
of confidence.
2
Scientific publications about the
model and forecasting results.
1
Performance indicator
In-depth understanding of the
impact of the physical parameters
on sedimentation and processes in
the water – sediment interphase,
usable for parametrizing and
calibration of the biogeochemical
model.
Set of the prognostic data about
oxygen and nutrient regime (input
data for WP 6).
Environmental values causing
critical changes in the quality of
marine environment identified.
Proposals for determination of the
critical values of environmental
indicators in the Latvian
territorial water s and EEZ,
necessary for implementation of
the WFD and European Marine
Strategy Directive (report).
1
Science –based proposals to
stabilize and mitigate
eutrophication of the coastal
waters in the context of CC,
based on the outputs of WP6,.
Report on the relationships
between coastal eutrophication
and CC in the Baltic Sea.
1
Scientific publication.
1
88
WP No. Workpackage results
DP6
Performance indicator
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Projection of the influence of CC In-depth understanding on the
on the ecosystems and biological possible character, scale and
diversity off the coasts of Latvia. pace of ecosystem changes.
2
3
Elaboration and
implementation of the
European Marine Strategy
Directive.
1
1
Scientific publications
2
Calibrated prognostic model.
1
1
Prognostic data series on
dynamics of fish stocks and
yields within the nearest 30
years.
1
6
Information and knowledge
basis necessary to create and
implement a sustainable
management policy of the
living marine resources.
1
1
Scientific publications
2
3
Array of facts and knowledge
necessary for participation of
Latvia in the implementation
of the HELCOM BSAP and
formulation of the national
plan as required by the BSAP,
and
Prognostic model of fish growth,
dynamics of fish stock, and
structure of the fish community
depending on development
scenarios of the climatic and
anthropogenic impacts.
Projection of the fish stocks and
year-class fecundity in 5, 10 and
30-year periods.
Integrated assessment of the
Proposals for implementation
impact of CC in territorial waters of the WFD (Latvian coastal
and EEZ of Latvia.
and transitional waters),
European Marine Strategy
Directive and HELCOM
BSAP (Reports).
Proposals for protection of the
marine biological diversity off
the coasts of Latvia.
89
WP No. Workpackage results
WP7
Performance indicator
Scientific publications.
1
Proposals for adjustment of the
program contents
1
Facilitating of the
communication and establishing
of dialogue between the research
community and the authorities
involved in the development
planning and decision making, as
well as the key representatives of
the private sector. Information of
the society about implementation
of the Program and its findings.
Initiation of the dialogue.
Data on the re-occurrence and
intensity of the past runoff
extremes.
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Analysis of the reflection of
Analysis of the existing
adaptation to CC in the
adaptation policy to CC
documents of the environmental
Assessment of the priority
and other policies.
research direction of the
program.
Elaboration of proposals for the Proposals during elaboration
national development planning, of the policy documents.
environmental policy, and sector
policy documents to mitigate the
possible adverse effect of CC on
the water environment based on
the scientific findings.
DP9
Planned
number
2
3
A practical handbook an
adaptation to the CC in the
environmental and other
policies.
Handbook
2000 ex.
Conferences and seminars.
3
Data series.
1
Scientific publications
1
Prognostic hydrological data
Data series
series, modelling of the flood and
Mathematical model
drought character.
Scientific publications
1
Digital terrain model of the
Naujeine – Jekabpils stretch of
the Daugava valley.
Data series
1
1
ĂIS database
1
1
Scientific publications
1
90
1
1
2
WP No. Workpackage results
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Data series
1
1
Mathematical model
1
Scientific publications
3
2
Conferences
2
5
Transport of the nutrients and the
suspended material from the
upper parts of the hydrographical
network to recipient water-flows
and basins assessed.
Scientific publications
Recommendations to the
Ministry of Regional
Development and Local
Governments, Ministry of the
Environment and Ministry of
Agriculture.
2
2
Understanding of the broad
society about CC and the
associated risks investigated
within a sociologic survey.
Recommendations to the
Ministry of Regional
Development and Local
Governments
1
Scientific publications
1
Recommendations to the
municipal governments of
Daugavpils and Jēkabpils
regions.
2
Ecosystem changes in the
floodplain lakes of the Daugava
mid-flow assessed.
Recommendations to the
agricultural, forestry and
territorial planning sectors on
mitigating of the flood and
draught risks.
8DP
Performance indicator
Effective governance of the
Meetings of the WP
program and coordination of the Coordinators
collaboration of WPs.
Technical reports on progress
in implementation of the
Program
CC research in Latvia is
Meeting reports of the
conducted in a high scientific
International Advisory Board
quality. This is supported by an
effective work of the
international External Advisory
Board and international relations
of the Program.
91
3
13
According
with the
financers’
requirements
At least 4
1
5
WP No. Workpackage results
Fair and transparent distribution
of finances amongst the WPs of
the Program facilitates effective
use of the allocated funds.
Timely prepared and good
quality reports prepared in
accordance with the requirements
of the financier.
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
30.11.2007
Carefully prepared budget
requests for each of the years
(phases) of the Program.
4
2
Directions to the financier
concerning the distribution of
funds among the research
institutes and universities
participating in the Program.
4
2
Precise and timely submitted
financial reports.
In
accordance
with the
financier’s
schedule
1
1
1 (500-1000
ex.)
1
Performance indicator
Effective strategy of information Created and systematically
of the broad public about the
updated Program website.
impact of CC on the environment
Information leaflet on the
of the Baltic Region.
Program in two languages
Program has good visibility.
Popular summary of the
Program results.
1 (500-1000
eks.)
Series of popular publications
about various findings of the
Program.
Reports in media about the
potential CC impact on waters
of the Baltic Region and
Latvia and the necessary
adaptation activities.
As a result of the aquatic
environmental research school
initiated by the Program,
development of the new
researchers and quality of their
work has increased considerably.
Number of SCI papers and
defended PhD dissertations
significantly increased. PhD
courses on the topics of aquatic
research take place regularly.
Papers in the internationally
quoted scientific journals, % of
the total number of publications.
At least
50%
11 of
27=30%
PhD defences on the topics of
the Program
At least 15
3
Annual Program conferences
as a part of the Scientific
conference of UL.
3
1+1 intl.
conference
International PhD courses
3
92
Annex 4
Time schedule of the Program tasks
WP
No.
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP6
Year 1
Task
I
II
III
Year 2
IV
I
II
1a Elaboration of
scenarios
1b Drainage basin
modelling
1c Marine 3D model
1d Data series
2a Modelling data
bases
2b Retention
processes
2c Model analysis
2dInfluences on
water resources
2e Changes in
pollution
3a Climate biodiversity
3b Fluxes-climate –
biota
3c Indicators of the
climate change
4a History of coastal
processes
4b Projection of
coastal processes
4c Risk mapping
4d Actions for
adaptation
5a Boundary layer
processes
5b Production and
sedimentation
5c Marine model
5d Marine quality
and productivity
5e Advice on
adaptation
6a Structure and
dynamics of
communities
6b Fish community
model
6c Projection of
fisheries resources
6d Advice to fisheries
III
Year 3
IV
I
II
III
Year 4
IV
I
II
III
IV
1A
1B
1C
1D
2A
2A
2B
2B
2C
2D
2D
2E
3A
3A
3B
3C
4A
4A
4B
4B
4B
5A
5B
5B
5C
5D
5D
5F
5G
6A
6B
6C
6F
93
WP7
WP8
DP9
6e Advice to marine
environmental
protection
7a. Adaptation policy
7b. Implementation
7c. Dialogue
8a.Management and
coordination
8b. Distribution of
funds
8c. Public
information
8d. External
Advisory Board
8.e. Research school
7A
7B
8A
8B
8B
8C
8C
8C
8F
8E
8B
8B
8B
7B
8B
8C
8B
8B
8B
8C
8I
8B
8C
8B
8B
8B
8C
8C
8G
8G
8G
8I
8I
8I
8J
8J
9a Runoff and
climate
9b Flood modelling
8J
9A
9B
9c Role of floodplains
9d Lake ecosystems
9e Material fluxes
9C
9C
9D
9E
9f Recommendations
-
6G
6H
6D
9F
Delayed activities and outputs
A1 – 9G denotes the expected deliverables of the WPs.
94
9F
9G
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