KALME DRAFT SUMMARY REPORT NRP „CLIMATE CHANGE

KALME  DRAFT SUMMARY REPORT NRP „CLIMATE CHANGE
NRP „CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ON THE WATERS
OF LATVIA”
FOURTH PHASE (2009)
DRAFT SUMMARY REPORT
KALME
CLIMATE, ADAPTATION, BALANCE, CHANGE, ECOSYSTEMS
NATIONAL REASEARCH PROGRAMME
„CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACT ON THE WATERS
OF LATVIA”
FOURTH PHASE (2009)
DRAFT SUMMARY REPORT
NRP „CLIMATE CHANGE
Institutes and Universities involved:
University of Latvia
UL Agency Institute of Biology
Latvia University of Agriculture
Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology
Latvian Fish Resources Agency
Daugavpils University, Institute of Ecology
Program directors:
Andris Andrušaitis, Dr.biol. , Assoc. prof., Head of Department of
Hydrobiology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia
Māris KĜaviĦš, Dr. hab. chem., Professor, Academician of Latvian
Academy of Sciences, Head of Department of Environmental Science,
Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia
2009
2
Contents
Aim and overall structure of the Program................................................................... 4
Work Package 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF, NUTRIENT
FLOWS, AND REGIME OF THE BALTIC SEA ..................................................... 6
Work Package Nr. 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE NUTRIENT RUNOFF IN THE DRAINAGE BASIN .......................................................................... 15
Work Package Nr. 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FRESHWATER
ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY ............................................... 23
Work Package Nr. 4: COASTAL PROCESSES ...................................................... 30
Work Package Nr. 5: BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES AND PRIMARY
PRODUCTION IN THE BALTIC SEA................................................................... 38
Work Package Nr. 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS AND
BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY OF THE BALTIC SEA. ............................................ 47
Work Package Nr. 9: RUNOFF EXTREMES CAUSED BY THE CLIMATE
CHANGE AND THEIR IMPACT ON TERRITORIES UNDER THE FLOOD
RISK ......................................................................................................................... 56
Work Package Nr. 7: ADAPTATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SECTOR
POLICIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................... 66
Work Package 8: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH..... 69
Annexes..................................................................................................................... 72
Aggregated performance indicators and auditable values of the Program. .............. 72
Published and submitted papers by the Program team. ............................................ 73
Program Performance Indicators .............................................................................. 84
Time schedule of the Program tasks ......................................................................... 92
3
Aim and overall structure of the Program
Generic goal of the Program:
Assess short-, medium-, and long-term impact of climate change on the environment
and ecosystems of the inner waters of Latvia and the Baltic Sea. Create a scientific
basis for adaptation of environmental and sectorial policies of Latvia to climate
change.
Specific goals:
a) Create several mutually non-controversial scenarios of the regimedetermining parameters;
b) Assess possible climate change impacts on the quality of inland waters of
Latvia, water availability, flood and drought risk, to facilitate adaptation of
the drainage basin management and secure protection and sustainable use of
the water resources;
c) Predict the possible climate change impact on the physical regime, coastal
dynamics, bio-geo-chemical regime, and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea, to
facilitate protection of marine environmental quality, marine biological
diversity, and sustainable use marine resources and services.
Implementation of the National Research Program KALME “Impact of the Climate
Change on the Waters of Latvia” commenced in October 2006.
Although the topic of adaptation to the climate change is complex, recognizing the
overall aim to create a coherent scientific basis for the adaptation policy, as well as taking
into account the practice of administrating the national research programs in Latvia as
large projects, the working structure of the Program, instead of consisting of independent
projects, is built of nine mutually interlinked thematic work packages:
WP 1: Climate change impact on runoff, nutrient flows, and regime of the Baltic Sea;
WP 2: Climate change impact on the nutrient run-off in the drainage basin;
WP 3: Climate change impact on freshwater ecosystems and biological diversity;
WP 4: Coastal processes;
WP 5: Bio-geo-chemical processes and primary production in the Baltic Sea;
WP 6: Climate change impact on ecosystems and biological diversity of the Baltic Sea;
WP 7: Adaptation of environmental and sector Policies to the climate change;
WP 8: Program management and public outreach;
WP 9: Runoff extremes caused by the climate change and their impact on territories
under flood risk.
Successful work in each of the WPs depends on the outputs of other packages (Fig. 01).
Such arrangement of the Program facilitates effectiveness and coordination of the work,
although it requires additional effort of centralized management and accurate fulfilment
4
of the time schedule. A specific work package (WP8) is charged with the responsibility
of Program’s central management.
Fig. 0.1.: KALME work packages and the flows of information among them. Full
descriptions of the tasks are presented in Program application, published in
www.kalme.daba.lv .
Seven natural-science WPs (1-6 and 9) produce new knowledge, while the task of
WP7 is to maintain a dialogue with the potential end-users of Program’s outputs and
its stakeholders. This WP facilitates utilization of scientific knowledge while creating
Latvia’s national climate change adaptation policy and amending various sector
policies, planning documents and regulatory acts. Program’s management WP is
involved also in dissemination of the results to the broad public. The management WP
is responsible also for Program’s visibility and implements its educational activities.
5
Work Package 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF,
NUTRIENT FLOWS, AND REGIME OF THE BALTIC SEA
1.1. Goals:
1. Preparation of hydro-meteorological data series characterising the climate change
(scenarios)
2. Development of the mathematical model for the water and nutrient runoff from
the Latvian inland catchments. Calculations for preparation of the runoff data
series, characterising the climate change.
3. Development of 3D model for the Gulf of Riga, and performing calculations to
prepare data series of sea state parameters, compliant with the climate change
scenarios.
4. Modelling and data analysis support for other WPs.
1.2. Tasks of WP1 for the 4th stage1:
1. Analysis of the results of hydrological modelling.
2. Modelling of nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) runoff to the Gulf of Riga.
3. Non-steady climatic calculations of Gulf of Riga for the contemporary climate
and two climate change scenarios.
4. Research on long-term variation of climatic indicators.
1.3. The results of WP1 for Stage 4:
Task 1: work contents, results:
Increase of maximum monthly Q, %
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
0%
-5% -5% 0%
5%
10%
15%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
Increase of mean annual Q, %
Fig. 1.1. Change of hydrological characteristics of Bērze river according to ensemble of
RCMs (red dots) and ensemble of hydrological models (blue dots).
Modelling of water runoff
1
Hereafter Tasks as defined in a Contract for Stage 4 of the Programme
6
1. The double-model-ensemble approach (i.e. ensemble of the regional climate
models vs. ensemble of the hydrological models) was developed for the
analysis of runoff changes due to the climate change (Fig.1.1.).
2. The analysis of the hydrological modelling results for the Latvian river basin
districts determined the trends of regional variation. This analysis shows that
the regional hydrological differences will decrease with the climate change
(Figs. 1.2 and 1.3).
Fig. 1.2. Considered river basin districts (RBD).
Maximum monthly runoff, mm
45
35
25
15
120
160
Venta-CTL
Venta-A2
Lielupe-CTL
Lielupe-A2
Gauja-CTL
Gauja-A2
Daugava-CTL
Daugava-A2
200
280
240
320
Mean annual runoff, mm
Fig. 1.3. Impact of the climate change on the hydrological characteristics of RBD.
7
3. The statistical analysis of minimum and maximum discharges was performed.
The higher (in comparison with the mean flow) decrease of 90% low-flow
value was found (see illustration for Bērze river in Fig.1.4).
June – heavy rainfalls,
Jul/Aug - draught
Fig. 1.4. Impact of climate change on Bērze discharge – seasonal change at 10% highflow, 90% low-flow, and mean discharge.
Task 2: work contents, results:
Modelling of nutrient runoff. The data series of daily nutrient load of the Gulf of Riga
were prepared in co-operation with the WP6 for contemporary climate and climate
change scenario A2. See example in Fig.1.5.
25000
CTL
A2
Nitrogen load, tonne/month
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fig. 1.5. Monthly mean total nitrogen load to the Gulf of Riga for the contemporary
climate and climate change scenario A2.
8
Task 3: work contents, results:
Sea state modelling
1. The attempts of climatic modelling with the 3D hydrodynamic model
developed during Stage 3 failed.
Fig. 1.6. Variation of the daily picnocline depth for the Gulf of Riga under contemporary
climate and climate scenario A2.
2. One-dimensional model of vertical stratification was developed and calibrated
for the Gulf of Riga.
3. The climatic calculations are performed by the model of p.2 for the
contemporary (1961-1990) climate and the climate change scenario A2 (20712100), generating the corresponding data series of sea state characteristics.
9
Fig. 1.7. Time development of the vertical temperature distribution for the Gulf of Riga.
Contemporary climate (upper), climate change scenario A2 (lower).
10
4. The initial analysis of the impact of climate change on the stratification and
temperature regime of Gulf of Riga is performed (Figs. 1.6-1.7).
5. The modelling support for the modelling of ecosystem of the Gulf of Riga
based on calculations of nutrient loads (Task 2) and physical fields (p.3) is
provided to the WP 6.
Task 4: work contents, results:
Research of long-term variation of the climatic indicators.
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
TG
TN
SU
TR
GD4
GSL
10mm
20mm
FD
ID
DTR
CSDI
CFD
Rīga
Liepāja
Alūksne
Saldus
Daugavpils
Figure 1.8. Mann-Kendal test trend statistics for extreme climate events.
11
4.0
5.0
Liepāja,
Ice days (ID)
Rīga,
Frost days (FD)
160
200
120
160
120
80
80
40
40
0
1900
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Rīga,
Summer days (SU)
Liepāja,
Heavy precipitation (HP)
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
10
5
0
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
2020
Figure 1.9. Trends of changes of extreme climate events in Latvia
1950-2004.g.
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
Tmax
February
Tmax
March
Tmax
April
Tmax
May
Tmax
June
Liepāja
Bauska
Alūksne
Figure 1.10. Seasonal changes of maximal temperatures
12
1. In 2009, trends of large scale atmospheric circulation processes in Latvia were
analysed and the character of their long term variation evaluated. It has been
shown that is possible to identify 27 major atmospheric circulation types, and
their interchange can be considered as a major factor influencing weather
conditions in Latvia.
2. Wavelet analysis has been applied to study the river discharge periodicity.
Scientific and economic impact of the research results.
Scientific results (methodological results):
• A novel method for the comparison and skill assessment of regional climate
models is developed and applied.
• The method of bias correction of the climate modelling results is developed.
The novelty of the method is in (a) double downscaling (statistical
downscaling of dynamically downscaled climatic fields via histogram
equalisation), (b) use of the moving time window instead of seasonal bias
correction for the construction of cumulative distribution functions which are
required for the histogram equalisation.
• The application of RCM data for forcing the hydrological models was
investigated.
• The double model ensemble approach (ensemble of regional climate models vs.
ensemble of hydrological models) was used for the analysis of the future runoff analysis.
• The one-dimensional model of the vertical stratification of the Gulf f Riga was
developed and applied for the climatic calculations.
Scientific results (conclusions, data series)
•
The data series of climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity,
wind speed) which in a statistical sense are equal to observations during the
contemporary climate conditions were produced. The data series of
meteorological parameters with daily resolution were prepared for the whole
territory of Latvia. These data series correspond to the contemporary climate
and the climate change scenarios B2 and A2.
•
The approach for the calculation of water and nutrient runoff was developed,
including development of hydrological models for the basins of Latvian rivers.
•
The daily data series of water and nutrient runoff were calculated; these data
series in statistical sense are close to the corresponding discharge observations.
The data series of hydrological parameters with daily time resolution are
prepared for Latvian rivers (spatial resolution – water bodies identified in the
River Basin District Management Plans) corresponding to the contemporary
climate and climate change scenarios B2 and A2. The data series of nutrient
loads to the Gulf of Riga are prepared.
•
The climatic calculations of the vertical stratification of the Gulf of Riga are
performed for the contemporary climate and climate change scenario A2.
13
•
The conclusions about the expected climate change in territory of Latvia are
drawn on the basis of analysing meteorological RCM data series.
•
The conclusions about expected climate change impact on the river runoff
regime in territory of Latvia are drawn on the basis of analysing hydrological
modelling results.
Economic impact
The economic impact of the WP1 results is related to their potential (almost direct)
use in the sectors which depend on the character on interaction of climatic parameters
(either meteorological on hydrological). The list of these branches include, but is not
limited with, energetic (hydro-energetics, renewable energetic – wind / solar, energy
consumption), agriculture (adaptation of agricultural practice etc), forestry, building,
tourism, fisheries, transport.
1.4. Summary
The scenarios of nutrient runoff and sea state of the Gulf of Riga were prepared
during the Stage 4. The investigations of the impact of climate change on the river
runoff regime were continued. The significant part of work during the last programme
year was devoted to the presentation of the research results in conferences,
dissemination and documenting, as well as providing data analysis and modelling
support to other WPs.
Work Package Coordinator: Uldis Bethers
14
Work Package Nr. 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE NUTRIENT
RUN-OFF IN THE DRAINAGE BASIN
2.1. Task of the WP2:
Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological regime and
Run-off in rivers of Latvia
Nutrient
2.2. Sub-tasks of the Work package WP2, Phase IV:
1. Finalizing the digital GIS maps for sub-basins of the Bērze River. Data evaluation
for use of alternative water quality models (SWAT model).
2. Final assessment of nutrient emission from the non-point sources and evaluation of
nutrient retention for parameterization of the FYRIS model.
3. Finalizing of calibration of the hydrological (METQ) and water quality models
(FYRIS); assessment of climate change impact, simulation with different scenario
data delivered by WP1.
4. Adaptation of the update version of the FYRIS model for simulation of climate
change impacts in cooperation with developers of FYRIS model (SLU, Sweden).
2.3. Results of sub-tasks of the Work package WP2, Phase IV.
Task 1, results of the implementation and work content:
Modelling procedures for decrease of uncertainty of the results needs the high
accuracy data on land use and size of river basin and sub-catchments. Previous GIS
data base of the river basins was based on watershed area acquired from the
topographic maps. During implementation of the phase 4, accurate catchment
boundaries of Berze River were set and high precision GIS map for modelling was
prepared. The map was digitized using agricultural drainage maps (scale 1:2000). The
detailed GIS data base containing all necessary data on catchment' area, agricultural
crops and layers describing the layout of tile drainage systems is finished for all
catchments, see fig. 2.1.
In future this information will be important for the calibration of alternative water
quality models, e.g. the SWAT model in the BONUS RECOCA project.
Task 2, results of the implementation and work content:
Research on leaching and runoff losses of the nitrogen and phosphorus in Latvia
started in several geographical scales in October 1993. The temporal and spatial
variations of nutrient run-off are considerable. Therefore, for the evaluation of the
nutrient fluxes from agricultural sources, time series including long-term data are
necessary and assessment of agricultural non-point pollution and retention of nutrients
in several scales was continued in 2009. The available long-term data series allow
evaluating the nitrogen and phosphorus run-off on monthly and seasonal scale. Our
study showed (Fig. 2.2.) that the main part of agricultural run-off has been generated
during winter and non growing period of crops. Only 27% off the nitrogen leaching
accrued during the summer period. 73% of run-off has been observed during the
15
period of late autumn – winter - early spring. The main part of non-point pollution
(nutrient loads) could be attributed to the winter months (December, January,
February), when nutrient run-off constitutes about 43% of the total year run-off.
Therefore this period is generally regarded as being of high significance.
Fig. 2.1. Part of hydrographical network of the Bērzes river basin
Simulation of climate change (models) today does not include all eventual impacts of
factors influencing the agricultural run-off and impacts of their combinations.
Especially high risk of nutrient leaching is characteristic for combination of extremely
dry periods during the growing season followed by mild winter with high
precipitation. For example, extremely high nutrient run-off during winter 2006 - 2007
was a consequence of high soil mineral nitrogen content that was not used by crops
during dry summer of 2006. As a result of these environmental conditions, 56% of
yearly nitrogen run-off occurred during December-January-February. These results
suggest that small increase of river run-off or even certain decrease of it of may be
accompanied by a significant increase of the non point source pollution.
16
Berze drainage
N run-off, %
80
70
Winter
60
50
Dec- - Febr.
40
30
20
10
0
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
I
II
III
Fig. 2.2. Seasonal distribution of the nutrient run-off (average X.1993. –XII.2008.)
kg ha-1
Average values 2005. - 2008.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
y = -49,92x + 199,82
Aplication of N N in the yield
N run-off
fertilizer
drainage field
N run-off,
Ālaves river
Fig. 2.3. Retention of nitrogen in area of intensive agriculture of Bērze river catchment.
DP2 research results (Fig. 2.3.) indicate that intensive crop production use about 75%
of the applied nitrogen fertilizers. N-leaching with the drainage run-off reached 15 %
of the N loss, but the river run-off – constitutes 10% if this loss.
Task 3., results of the implementation and work content:
For the simulation of hydrological processes in the past and future, the conceptual
water balance model - the latest version of METQ2007BDOPT was applied. The
model was developed by Professor A.Zīverts with semi-automatic calibration
performance. The METQ2007BDOPT model was calibrated (1961-1990) and
validated (1991-2000) for the studied ten river basins and sub-basins (Table 2.1.). The
modelling results showed a good coincidence between the observed and simulated
daily discharges: the Nach-Sutcliffe efficiency R2 varies from 0.86 to 0.52 and
correlation coefficient r – from 0.93 to 0.75 for the calibration period, and R2 = 0.870.43 and r = 0.95-0.70 for validation period. The best match was obtained for the
River Salaca at Lagaste and the River Vienziemīte.
17
Table 2.1.
Results of the METQ2007BDOPT model calibration and validation.
Period of the calibration
Period of the validation
(1961-1990)
(1991-2000)
River basin and hydrological
station
R2
r
R2
r
4)
Imula – Pilskalni
0.66
0.77
0.43
0.70
Bērze - Baloži
0.72
0.85
0.62
0.80
Bērze – Biksti3)
0.67
0.83
0.43
0.76
Iecava – Dupši 4)
0.66
0.82
0.44
0.79
Vienziemīte – Vienziemīte
0.86
0.91
0.63
0.84
Salaca – Lagaste
0.80
0.93
0.87
0.95
Salaca - Mazsalaca
0.76
0.88
0.77
0.87
Briede - Dravnieki
0.69
0.85
0.72
0.87
Seda – Oleri 2)
0.60
0.81
0.62
0.87
1)
Rūja – Vilnīši
0.52
0.75
0.57
0.77
1)
operating since 1978; 2) operating since 1979; 3) operating since 1980; 4) – closed in 1995
The model calibration-validation provided daily river discharge data series for 10
hydrological stations and 15 sub-basins of the River Bērze. The simulation of
hydrological behaviour of the river runoff in past and future climate conditions,
statistical analysis of long-term annual, seasonal data and extreme events of the
climate and hydrological data series was finalised for the following periods:
• Control period HCCTL (1961-1990)
• Climate scenario HCA2 (2071-2100)
• Climate scenario HCB2 (2071-2100)
Climate change was projected by the selected regional climate model RCAO-HCCTL
and further statistical downscaling for the investigated (WP1 output). Using the river
basins of Bērze and Salaca as an example, figure 2.4 presents the projected changes in
seasonality of the river runoff, represented here as differences in climate between
years 1961-1990 and 2071-2100.
The results of model simulations for the studied river basins allow following
conclusions:
• comparing with the control period, the long-term annual air temperature will grow by
3.8-4.1 oC according the HCA2 scenarion, and by 2.5-2.7 oC according the HCB2
scenario; the mean air temperature will increase in all seasons, but the most
considerable increase is forecasted for the winter and autumn seasons;
• the growing season when daily mean temperature exceeds +5 oC, will increase from
35 to 40 days according to the HCA2 scenario and from 31 to 35 days according the
HCB2 scenario;
• climate change may facilitate an increase of precipitation by 10-12% (HCA2) and by
6-9% (HCB2); the main increase could be observed during winter while the decrease
– over the second half of the year;
18
• the number of days with heavy rainfall when precipitation exceeds 10 mm per day
will increase;
• comparing to the control period, the annual river flow will decrease by 2-25%
(HCA2) and by 3-11% (HCB2), except for the River Bērze where discharge may
increase by 6 % (HCB2), see Fig. 2.4.;
• the river discharge is forecasted to increase in winter season by 6-18% HCA2 and 412% HCB2 scenario and to decrease in autumn and spring. No considerable changes
are expected for summer. The major part of the total annual river runoff will occur in
winter followed by spring, autumn and summer season.
The distribution of total mean annual river runoff in the studied river basins is
presented in Fig. 2.4. Results of scenarios are presented as relative change in monthly
runoff in comparison to the control.
20
Bērze-Biksti
15
Runoff, %
10
5
0
-5
-10
O
D
J
F
M
HCCTL 1961-1990
A
M
J
HCA2 2071-2100
J
A
S
O
HCB2 2071-2100
20
Salaca-Lagaste
15
Runoff, %
10
5
0
-5
-10
O
N
D
J
HCCTL 1961-1990
F
M
A
HCA2 2071-2100
M
J
J
A
S
HCB2 2071-2100
Fig. 2.4. Annual cycle of run-off for hydrological year from October to September.
19
Monthly nitrogen and phosphorus loads for Bērze river are presented in Fig. 2.5. plant
Yearly loss of these plant nutrients are projected to increase by 6-7% (HCA2) or by
19-20% (HCB2).
5 kg ha-1 month
N tot
4,5
2000-2008 18.1 kg N/ha year
4
HCA2 scenario 19.3 kg N/ha year
3,5
HCB2 scenario 21.7 kg N/ha year
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-1
0,06
P tot
kg ha month
2000-2008 0.325 kg P/ha year
HCA2 scenario 0.344 kg P/ha
0,05
HCB2 scenario 0.387 kg P/ha year
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Fig. 2.5. Monthly N un P run-off in Bērze River
During the implementation of the KALME programme, FYRIS model has been
improved by model developers in the Swedish University of Agricultural Science
(SLU). Therefore finalizing the model validation, the updated model version has been
tested for climate change simulation. Cooperation with SLU and mutual assistance to
improve simulation results was very useful for the improvement of the last FYRIS
version e.g., phosphorus run-off simulation. An important feature of the FYRIS model
is source apportionment for riverine loads of pollutants, see Fig. 2.6. and 2.7.
20
LVĂMC dati
LLU dati
12,7%
r = 0,77
31,1%
9,0%
0,4%
46,7%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Forest
Mire
Arable
Pasture
2008
Point sources
Fig. 2.6. Simulated and observed nitrogen concentrations and pollution sources. Bērze
River sub catchment 12. (Downstream Dobele town).
LVĂMC dati
LLU dati
15,7%
0,5%
33,9%
r = 0,71
8,8%
Forest
Arable
41,2%
Mire
Pasture
Point sources
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2 008
Fig. 2.7. Simulated and observed phosphorus concentrations and pollution sources.
Bērze River sub catchment 12. (Downstream Dobele town).
Scientific and economic significance of results
One of the main results of implementation of WP2 tasks is calibration of water quality
model according to the procedures recommended by FP5 EUROHARP project e.g.,
river basin divided in the homogenous sub catchments and at least 5 year monthly
water quality data for model validation. Thus, although some progress seems to have
been achieved before implementation of the KALME programme, it was no possible
21
to state with confidence that the water quality modelling at that time have yet been
resolved in Latvia. Besides modelling of climate change impact, research results will
have high importance for water management. In that context, we must recognize that
modelling is a key component of catchment management systems necessary for
implementation of WFD to reach good water quality status by 2015.
Modelling and assessment of monitoring data should be based on long term data sets
and comprehensive information about characteristics of the catchment. Therefore, the
results of detailed study of Bērze River basin (900 km2) will be useful in the future
development of model applications in Latvia.
Experience, collected data sets, international training and cooperation has
significantly increased research capacities of Department of Environmental
Engineering and Water Management of Latvia University of Agriculture to perform
modelling of water quality at international standard of quality.
2.4. Summary
Implementing the main tasks of WP2, calibration and validation of hydrological and
hydro chemical models was finalized. The modelling results by WP2 have
demonstrated that climate change:
• may increase the normal year air temperature by 2-4 oC; increase may occur
during all seasons, highest increase of temperature is predicted during autumn and
winter;
•
could create an increase of the precipitation, especially during winter;
•
may decrease and change seasonal distribution of the river run-off e.g., less runoff during spring and autumn floods, increase of run-off in winter;
•
due to the climate change yearly plant nutrient run-off (loads) are projected to
increase by 6-20%, especially during winter;
Seasonal peaking factors as extremely dry weather conditions in the summer in
combination with autumn floods and mild winters may be highly variable from one
year to another. It is important to note that the intensity, as well as the total strength of
rainfall extremes, is of importance in determining the extent of nutrient leaching in
field level, but it is impossible to evaluate that with the today’s modelling tools.
Therefore, model applications may still have a lot of uncertainty to evaluate extreme
nutrient run-off and to determine the proper scale of appraisal (field, small catchment
and river basin level).
The combinations of crop and management practices, including crop rotations and
tillage, and natural factors, such as soil type and slope, affect water runoff into
streams and percolation into groundwater, which could affect soil erosion, and the
movement and leaching of nutrients into the aquatic systems. Climate changes could
change agricultural practice e.g. as regards the new crop rotation and soil tillage that
also may add a lot of uncertainty to nutrient run-off predictions.
Work Package Coordinator: Viesturs Jansons
22
Work Package Nr. 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FRESHWATER
ECOSYSTEMS AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY
3.1. Task of the WP3
To assess possible impact of the climate change on the ecosystems and biological
variability of the inner surface wares of Latvia.
3.2. Phase 4 tasks of WP NR3
1. To complete sampling and to process laboratory analyses, to improve data sets, to
perform statistical analysis and data interpretation in connection with the climate
change;
2. To assess changes in freshwater biodiversity under the climate change impact;
3.To characterize changes of water chemical composition and biological communities
under the impact of climate change;
4. To describe the structure of ichthyocenoses of river Salaca and lake Burtnieku and
their future development;
5. To set up the climate change indicators for Latvian inland surface waters.
3.3. WP 4 Fourth stage results
Task 1: The analysis of extreme climate in model objects.
In 2009, the sampling programme was finished. Complex hydro-chemical and hydrobiological studies were carried out in the Salaca River and Lake Engure. Laboratory
processing of samples was done and data sets were improved.
Analyses of number of the wet days indicated that since the last 20 years of 19th
century to the beginning of 20th century the daily maximums significantly decreased,
but since the fifties of the 20th century till the nineties – significantly increased. In
general, only in winter season a significant increase is observed for the 1-day and 5days maximal atmospheric precipitation sum.
Positive trend as well as decadal variability is observed for numbers of days with
intensive precipitation where daily sum is larger and or equal to 10mm.
Gathering of information on land cover in Salaca basin was completed and flows of
substances were analysed.
Strong relationship between the specific runoff of Ntot and proportion of agricultural
lands was determined, but such relationship was not present in case of reactive
phosphorus. On contrary, total organic carbon (TOC) decreases with the increase of
agricultural lands (Fig.3.1.).
The role of discharge for the concentration of TOC is important. The largest
concentrations of particulate organic carbon (POC) are observed in the periods of
23
algal blooms (Lake Burtnieku, Salaca) and the increased river discharge (tributaries of
Lake Burtnieku).
Analyses of the relationships between environmental factors and biota confirm that
correlations exist between phytoplankton total biomass, diatom biomass and
cyanobacterial biomass, e.g., in summer period positive tie exists between total algal
biomass and especially – cyanobacterial biomass and temperature TOC, POC, Ntot.
Long-term data analyses of Latvian State Geological, Meteorological and
Environmental agency confirm that data on organic matter parameters (e.g.COD,
water colour), biogenic elements and main inorganic ions could be used for trend
analyses of waters in Latvia excluding TOC as the data rows are not homogenous. In
general, since 1991 COD and water colour have increasing trends like as other
European regions and North America.
Table 3.1. Values of Mann-Kendal test for sums of precipitation for 1-day (RX1) and 5 –
days (RX5) (1925.-2006.)*
Stacija
Ziema
Pavasaris
Vasara
Rudens
Gada
RX1 RX5
RX1
RX1
RX5
RX1
RX5
RX1
RX5
Ainaži
2.67
3.94
-1.02 -1.30 -0.58
1.35
-1.02
0.72
-1.32
0.98
Rīga
4.85
4.70
0.49
0.82
1.27
1.15
1.74
2.45
1.83
1.28
Daugavpils 1.90
3.67
0.55
1.39
-2.17 -0.86 -0.54
1.01
-1.66 -0.33
Gulbene
5.12
6.57
0.65
0.71
-0.30
0.01
-0.33
1.73
-0.45
0.14
Jelgava
2.36
3.82
0.65
1.28
0.76
0.43
1.30
1.36
0.86
0.89
Kolka
1.21
2.85
0.07
-0.10 -1.12
0.18
1.87
1.15
-0.70
0.61
Liepāja
1.54
1.99
-0.71
0.72
0.66
0.39
0.99
-0.53
0.89
-0.48
Mērsrags
4.38
5.16
1.64
1.97
0.42
0.28
1.25
1.65
1.37
0.75
PriekuĜi
4.13
3.93
1.20
0.85
0.03
0.43
1.36
-0.35
1.53
0.28
Stende
4.11
4.74
-0.46
1.24
-1.14 -1.24
0.77
0.57
-1.49 -1.84
Ventspils
2.71
2.77
-0.57
0.55
0.07
0.54
0.55
0.89
RX5
1.29
0.30
*Statistically significant values (p ≤0.01) in bold, RX1- maximal 1-day precipitation amount, RX1maximal 5-days precipitation amount,
24
18.0
y = -0.1635x + 17.738
R2 = 0.7556
16.0
TOC, t/km
2
14.0
12.0
10.0
y = -0.1148x + 13.568
8.0
R2 = 0.6384
6.0
4.0
2.0
trendline 2007
trendline 2008
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
total agricultural areas , %
Fig. 3.1. Relationshop between specific runoff of TOC (t/km2) and proportion of
agricultural lands.
Task 2: Assesing changes in freshwater biodiversity under the climate change
impact
Contemporary changes of freshwater biodiversity are largely caused by the arrival of
species typical for southern part of Europe, e.g. Ponto-Caspian species Sabanejewia
aurata and changes in species distribution area, e.g. Rhodeus sericeus that in 20ies of
20th century was found in South-West part of Latvia but today is present also in the
Northern part of the country.
Currently the changes in structure and distribution of freshwater communities are
continuing and it may be expected that these processes will affect freshwater
biodiversity also in future; however it is impossible to quantify this impact. Example
of Shannon’ index changes at the Salaca mouth present quite a diverse picture (Fig.
3.2.)
25
Šenona daudzveidības indekss (H)
2,5
y = 0,2416x + 0,2631
2
R2 = 0,6627
1,5
1
0,5
0
Gads
3
y = -0,0028x + 1,9321
2,5
R2 = 0,0008
2
1,5
1
0,5
2007_K
2006_K
2005_K
2004_K
2002_K
2001_K
2000_K
1999_K
1998_K
1997_K
1997_K
1989_K
1987_K
0
1986_K
Šenona daudzveidības indekss (H)
1986_V 1983_V 1989_V 1990_V 2000_V 2007_V 2008_V
Gads
Fig. 3.2. Shannon’s index at the outflow of Salaca (upper chart – middle part, lower
chart – left coast littoral).
26
Task 3: Characteristic changes of water chemical composition and biological
communities under climate change
Comparison of aquatic vegetation in Salaca in 1986 and 2009 confirms the increasing
proportion of emergent macrophytes. At the same time, the invasive species Elodea
canadensis spread widely.
Dominance shift from benthic diatoms to green algae is observed in Salaca.
In Lake Burtnieku even in the time period since 1996 to 2006, visible changes in the
structure of fish communities took place.
Investigations of drift of the benthic invertebrates reveal that drifting species
composition and density are affected by the seasonal expressions of the climate
change. The most abundant species diversity and density is observed in the beginning
of June when the last development stage larvae dominate and water insects are flying
out (Fig.3.3.)
A
Figure 3.3. Ordination analysis of Ephemeroptera species composition in drift samples in
Strīėupē belowsand-macrophyte and sand-detritus microbiotops in June, August and
October of 2007. . Axis 1 explains 11,5%, Axis 2 9,4% of total data dispersion.
27
Task 4: Structure of ichthyocenoses of the River Salaca and the Lake Burtnieku
and projection of their future development
Fish fauna of Lake Burtnieku was affected by climate change during the whole time
of lake’s development.
Since 1994 to 2006, 17 fish species have been found: Esox lucius, Abramis brama,
Blicca bjoerkna, Rutilus rutilus, Scardinius erythrophthalmus, Tinca tinca, Carassius
carassius, Carassius auratus, Leuciscus idus, Leuciscus cephalus, Alburnus alburnus,
Leucaspius delineatus, Stizostedion lucioperca, Perca fluviatilis, Gymnocephalus
cernua, Lota lota and Cobitis taenia. Also carp and eel have been recorded. Artificial
restocking has not left permanent effect.
Since 1996 the increase in number of silver bream, tench and pike perch is typical.
Especially flourishing is the population of pike perch population (Fig.3.4). This
phenomenon is evidently related to successful spawning and survival of the young
fish due to climate change.
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
0
Figure 3.4. Catch of pikeperch Stizostedion lucioperca (kg) in Lake Burtnieku since 1992
till 2008.
In general, it is assumed that the fish fauna could change significantly during the
coming 50-70 years due to the decrease of cold-water and increase of warm-water
species. In concerns lakes as well as rivers.
Task 5: Setting up climate change indicators for Latvian inland surface waters.
Results of investigations show that such climate parameters as increase in mean
annual temperature, increase in precipitation, decrease in ice-covered days, increase in
winter discharge, increase in number of extremely wet days and days with intensive
precipitation are primarily indicators of climatic conditions. These changes cause
changes in water chemical composition, e.g., COD and water colour have increasing
trends.
28
Climate change impacts also the structure freshwater communities and their functions.
In the case of the Salaca river, ratio of Cyanobacteria in total phytoplankton biomass
clearly increases, as increases the amount of green algae in benthic communities.
Macrophyte overgrowth due to prolonged vegetation season is observed as well.
Ratio of development stages of benthic invertebrates, e.g., Ephemeroptera and
Trichoptera in seasonal drift samples also could be could to be connected with the
climate change.
The development of ecologically sensitive fish species such as rheophilic salmonids
or comparatively termophilic Alburnoides bipunctatus and Rhodeus sericeus are
found to be potential environmental indictors reflecting the climate change.
Changes in fish physiology and behaviour, e.g., change of migration time and
spawning time, belong to the group of functional climate change indicators.
Biogeographic distribution area of some species may also be used as the climate
change indicators, e.g. expansion fish species Rhodeus sericeus and arrival of
southern fish species Sabanejewia aurata.
Scientific and economic significance of results
The assessment of changes in the number of days with intensive precipitation has
been performed to forecast the extreme precipitation events that may be important for
economics. Data on organic carbon flows show relationships with river discharge and
development of phytoplankton. Scientific novelty is present in the drift investigations
linked with feeding of young salmonids. Structural and functional climate change
indicators for Latvian freshwater are defined. Projection of freshwater fish fauna
development is preformed.
Summary
In 2009 sampling and processing of samples has been finished. Data sets are updated
and statistical analyses of data are finished. For the first time in Latvia analyses of day
numbers with high precipitation were carried out. Structural and functional changes of
freshwater aquatic ecosystems are assessed. The changes of freshwater biodiversity
are analysed. Analysis of fish communities of River Salaca and Lake Burtnieku are
provided. Climate change indicators for Latvian inland waters are stated.
Work Package Coordinator: G. SpriĦăe
29
Work Package Nr. 4: COASTAL PROCESSES
4.1. WP General aim
The subject of this research is analyzing coastal changes and forecasting climate
fluctuation impacts’ on the coastal dynamic and ecosystems in Latvian territorial
waters of the Baltic Sea.
4.2. WP Fourth stage tasks:
1. Detailed mapping of coastal erosion and flooding risk (scale appropriate for local
planners and developers).
2. Risk evaluation and recommendations for planning, coastal protection and coastal
management purposes for the period of next 15 and 50 years.
3. Preparation of recommendations for government level and expert working group for
“Adaptation to climate change”.
4. Preparation of texts and digital maps for the edition of Latvian coast atlas “Coastal
processes. Forecast and risk”.
4.3. WP Fourth stage results.
Task 1. Content and results:
Based on the coastal erosion forecast, the digital data layer for use in GIS
environment was prepared. Data accuracy and scale corresponds to territory planning
needs (Fig. 4.1.). The data layer provides significant contribution to assessment of
assets in high erosion risk coastal territories, planning and development, preparations
for necessary actions, alternatives for adaptations under increased erosion and
flooding risk conditions. It also serves as a baseline for the coastal protection projects.
30
Fig. 4.1. Coastal erosion risk zone for 15 and 50 year period. Visualization of digital data
layer, base – ortophoto from „Metrum” Ltd.
31
Task 2. Content and results:
Risk level has been evaluated for coastal erosion and wind surge flooding in low
laying coastal areas. Most important structures, buildings, facilities and protected
nature areas with high erosion and flooding risk have been identified.
Forecast of coastal dynamics associated with coastal erosion risk (2009-2023):
1. Long term mean and maximum values of coastal erosion rate will be close to
ones observed during the last decade (0.5-3.0 m/year),
2. Coastal erosion will continue in previously erosional coastal stretches, with
several zones potentially at risk.
Forecast of coastal dynamics associated with coastal erosion risk (2023-2058):
1. Long term mean and maximum values of coastal erosion rate will be 30-100 %
higher than measured during last decade (1.0-6.0 m/year),
2. Total length of coastal sections with erosion risk will be 10-20 % higher than
measured during last decade,
3. Total land area lost due to coastal erosion will reach approximately 1070 ha by
the year 2058.
Task 3. Content and results:
Maps of coastal areas with highest erosion risk have been prepared (figs. 4.2. and
4.3.). Recommendations prepared for coastal zone planning, management and
protection (government level and expert working group “Adaptation to climate
change”) (table).
32
Figure 4.2. Coastal sections at the Kurzeme coast of Baltic Proper with high erosion risk
and recommendations for coastal protection measures in each section (references in
table 4.1.).
33
Figure 4.3. Gulf of Riga coastal sections with high erosion risk and recommendations for
coastal protection measures in each section (References in table 4.1.).
34
Table 4.1.
Coastal sections with high erosion risk
No.
Section
Section length
(m)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Nida
Mietrags
Bernāti
Liepāja-Šėēde
5500
5500
3000
7000
Erosion risk
level (during a
year)
5m/20%
5m/25%
15m/25%
10m/25% >
5m/15%
(decrease in risk
level northward)
5.
6.
Ziemupe
AkmeĦrags
800
800
5m/15%
5m/15%
7.
Pāvilosta (north)
500
5m/20%
8.
Labrags
embayment
19000
9.
Sārnate
1000
10m/30% >
5m/15%
(lowest risk
level in southern
part)
5m/15%
10.
11.
Užava
Melnrags
(LībciemsGrigaĜciems)
4000
7000
12.
VentspilsLiepene
11000
13.
14.
15.
Ovīšu cape
Vaide-Kolka
Cape of Kolka
1000
5000
1000
5m/15%
10m/30% >
5m/15%
(lowest risk
level in centre)
10m/25% >
5m/15%
(differences in
risk level within
the section)
5m/20%
5m/15%
5m/25%
16.
Roja (south)
1000
5m/15%
17.
KalteneValgalciems
7000 (3000)
18.
19.
Upesgrīva
Bērzciems
1000
1000
5m/10%
(differences in
risk level within
the section)
5m/10%
5m/10%
20.
Abragciems
1000
5m/15%
35
Main objects within the section
Recommended
action (code)
6 buildings, nature areas
Nature areas
Nature areas, 3 buildings
Liepāja sewage water
treatment plant, WW2
memorial, Wind energy farm,
infrastructure objects, cultural
heritage.
Ziemupe old cemetery
AkmeĦrags lighthouse
buildings, mobile
communications infrastructure
7 buildings
A
A
A
C (>2000 m)
Local roads, culture objects, 7
buildings, infrastructure
objects
AB
C1B (300 m)
CB (500 m);
D
A
Nature areas,
5 buildings
Nature areas
Nature areas
A
Infrastructure objects, 3
buildings, nature areas (large
amount of different buildings
and objects are in 50-60 year
risk area)
Nature areas
Nature areas
Infrastructure and culture
objects, Nature areas
(2-5 farmsteads are in 50-60
year risk area)
7 buildings, local roads and
other infrastructure (large
amount of different buildings
and objects are in 50-70 year
risk area)
>26 buildings, local roads and
other infrastructure, nature
areas
D;
and/or C (3000
m)
8 buildings
10 buildings, local roads and
other infrastructure, nature
areas
8 buildings, local roads and
A
A
A
AB
A
D; and/or
C1 (600 m)
C1 (short
sections with
total length of
~3000 m)
C1
C1 (800 m)
C1 (~300 m)
21.
Engure (south)
1000
5m/10%
22.
BigauĦciemsLapmežciems
7000 (1200)
23.
Jūrmala (center)
10000 (3000)
24.
25.
Daugavgrīva
Gauja
embouchure
ZvejniekciemsSaulkrasti
1000
2000
5m/20% >
5m/10%
(lowest risk
level in northern
part)
5m/15% >
5m/10%
(differences in
risk level within
the section)
5m/15%
10m/15%
Vidzeme coast
(Vitrupe)
30000 (1200)
26.
27.
3000
5m/15% >
5m/10%
(lowest risk
level in southern
part)
5m/10%
(differences in
risk level within
the section,
difficult to
predict)
other infrastructure, nature
areas
Engure old cemetery, 10-12
buildings (>20 buildings and
infrastructure are in 50-70 year
risk area)
15-20 buildings, local roads
and other infrastructure
and AB
D;
and/or C1 (700
m)
C1 and AB
(7000 m)
5-10 buildings
B (10000 m);
C (~1000 m)
Industrial area, nature area
Nature area
CB (~1000 m)
A
15-20 buildings, local roads
and other infrastructure, nature
areas
C1B
10-20 buildings, local roads
and other infrastructure, nature
areas, ViaBaltica road
A and C1
(short sections
with total
length of
~2000 m)
Recommendations for coastal protection measures (explanations for table):
A – No coastal protection actions are needed, in the most of cases such actions can be
considered as undesirable;
AB – No coastal protection structures are needed, “green actions” and/or “soft
methods” is feasible;
B – Coastal protection actions combining several “green” and “soft methods” can be
considered as suitable;
C – Necessity for “hard” coastal protection structures;
C1 – Necessity for “hard” coastal protection structures with advantage for simplified
and/or “light” structure types;
CB – Combining of “hard” coastal protection structures and “green actions” can be
considered as suitable;
D – Necessity for actions providing sediment bypassing to pass obstacles (port jetties)
to eliminate erosion in artificial sediment deficit areas.
36
Task 4. Content and results
Due to the finance shortage during stage four, preparation of map atlas “Coastal
processes – forecast and risk” has been cancelled.
Work Package Coordinator: L. KalniĦa
37
Work Package Nr. 5: BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES AND PRIMARY
PRODUCTION IN THE BALTIC SEA
5.1. The objective of work package:
Predict the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and the Baltic Sea
ecosystem
5.2. Tasks for phase 4 of the research programme2:
1. Finalize the experiments to clarify how biogeochemical processes change at
different oxygen concentrations.
2. Continue sedimentation field measurements using the deployed sediment
multitrap. Multitrap shall be equipped with a CTD logger to monitor changes in
hydrological conditions.
3. Continue development of the biogeochemical model, extending the time-period
covered by predictions and integrating the runoff and nutrient load scenarios
developed by WP 1 and WP 1 simulations of physical conditions under climate
change.
4. Develop recommendations for adaption to climate change in cooperation with all
other work packages.
5.3. Results according to the tasks for phase 4 of the research programme:
Factors influencing environmental quality and productivity of the Gulf of Riga
Salinity, one of the most important physical parameters in the Baltic Sea ecosystem, is
the result of a balance between freshwater runoff and salt water inflows from the
North Sea. Small saltwater inflows into the Baltic Sea take place relatively frequently
(HELCOM 2003), but large inflows are restricted to exceptional weather conditions
and occur as salt water pulses. Parallel to a change in dominant wind direction, a
reduction in frequency and intensity of salt water inflows has been observed since the
1970ies (Schinke and Mathäus 1998). Consequently salinity in the Baltic Sea has
decreased during the last 30 years. This decreasing trend is also obvious in the Gulf of
Riga (Fig. 5.1). Since 1986 only two major salt water inflows were registered, that
occurred in January 1993 and January 2003, in addition to several weaker inflows in
2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007 (Feistel et al. 2008). The observed changes in the
hydrological regime of the Baltic Sea are the main cause for the oxygen deficiency in
the Central Baltic Sea. In the Gulf of Riga, however, where the oxygen pool in the
bottom water is periodically renewed, changes in the Baltic Sea inflow regime had no
noticeable effect on oxygen conditions.
2
According to the task defined in the work contract for programme phase 4
38
Figure 5.1: Salinity in the bottom layer of the Gulf of Riga during 1973 – 2008. Data from
four monitoring stations (119., 120., 135., 121., 121A un 137A) at about 40 m depth
(Skudra 2009.).
The seasonal dynamic of oxygen in the Gulf of Riga is mainly determined by
meteorological conditions, together with biological processes. During spring, when
the water layer warms up, a thermal stratification develops (Fig.5.2) that separates a
warm upper layer (average temperature at 15 m depth 14 °C) from a cold bottom layer
(average temperature at 30 m depth 4 – 6 °C).
Figure 5.2: Average seasonal dynamics of water temperature in the Gulf of Riga, 1973 –
2008
The thermocline largely restricts the water exchange between the upper and the
bottom layer and therefore also limits the oxygen transport into the deeper waters. At
the same time, mineralization of organic material sedimenting during spring and
summer phytoplankton development causes intense oxygen consumption, causing a
drop in dissolved oxygen concentrations in the bottom water (Fig. 5.3). The
39
magnitude of oxygen consumption is determined by the amount of sedimenting
organic matter, which in turn is controlled by the nutrient pools in the water layer.
Figure 5.3: Average seasonal dynamics of oxygen concentrations in the Gulf of Riga,
1973 – 2008
Oxygen and temperature dynamics in the bottom layer directly control the type and
intensity of biogeochemical processes in the sediment surface layer. It is well known
that, nitrogen demineralised from organic matter is first released as ammonium and
then, in oxygen rich water or sediment environments, further oxidized to nitrate.
Nitrate in turn is partially released to the water column and partially denitrified,
removing nitrogen from the ecosystem. Therefore, we expected that at high bottom
water oxygen concentrations nitrogen would be primarily released as nitrate, which
was partially confirmed by our experimental results (Fig. 5.4), but during the oxygen
deficiency periods - as ammonium.
Figure 5.4.: Relationship between bottom water oxygen concentrations and nitrate flux at
the sediment-water interface.
40
Predictions of environmental quality and productivity in the Baltic Sea and the
Gulf of Riga ecosystem
With the resources available in the research programme, it was not feasible to start
modelling environmental quality in the entire Baltic Sea. Therefore model
development focused on the Gulf of Riga ecosystem. Changes in the Gulf of Riga
ecosystem were predicted with the biogeochemical model refined and calibrated
during programme phase 2. Forcing data, which characterizes the physical structure of
the water column in the Gulf of Riga at current climate conditions (control run) and
future climate conditions according to the ICCP A2 emission scenario, were delivered
by WP 1. They are based on a 1D-model of physical processes in the Gulf of Riga for
the time period 1961 – 1990 (control run) and 2071 – 2100 (A2 climate change
scenario). The modelled vertical temperature distributions were then used to drive the
water exchange between upper and demersal box in the biogeochemical model and to
force the rates of temperature dependent biogeochemical processes. Additionally we
used the seasonal distribution of runoff and thus nutrient loads predicted by WP 1 for
the A2 climate scenario, keeping the total loads at current level.
Predicted changes in the physical structure of the Gulf of Riga are earlier warming of
the water column and its intensified and prolonged stratification. Therefore the water
exchange between upper and bottom layer decreases (Fig. 5.5).
Figure 5.5. Water exchange between upper and demersal box in the biogeochemical
model. Monthly mean values for 30 year simulation periods (CTL: control run 1961 –
1990, A2: A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
41
On average, the water temperature in the upper layer increase by 3 °C, in the bottom
layer by 1.5 °C. The temperature increase mainly accelerates the heterotrophic fluxes
in the biogeochemical model. Therefore the nutrient regeneration rates significantly
increase. Compared to the control run, i.e. contemporary climate conditions, nutrient
accumulation below the thermocline increases (Fig. 5.6).
Figure 5.6. Phosphate concentrations in the demersal box of the biogeochemical model.
Monthly mean values for 30 year simulation periods (CTL: control run 1961 – 1990, A2:
A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
Hence, the intensified stratification in the A2 climate scenario decreases the nutrient
flux into the upper layer only slightly. The increased nutrient regeneration also causes
higher winter nutrient concentrations. Together with earlier warming and stratification
of the water column, the increased winter nutrient pool causes intensified and earlier
phytoplankton development during spring (Fig. 5.7). Also during summer the A2
scenario predicts higher phytoplankton biomass, which is mainly caused by increased
nutrient regeneration in the euphotic zone. The model also predicts that blue-green
algae blooms will increase significantly (Fig. 5.8). Altogether the A2 climate scenario
indicates that the productivity of the Gulf of Riga ecosystem will increase, both for
primary as well as for secondary producers. The simulated primary production
increased from 212 g C m-2 year-1 to 298 g C m-2 year-1, while the annual average
zooplankton biomass increased from 17.1 g C m-2 to 24.3 g C m-2.
42
Figure 5.7. Biomass of spring phytoplankton species. Monthly mean values for 30 year
simulation periods (CTL: control run 1961 – 1990, A2: A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
Figure 5.8. Biomass of cyanobacteria. Monthly mean values for 30 year simulation
periods (CTL: control run 1961 – 1990, A2: A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
Negative impacts on the ecosystem are caused mainly by the predicted decline in
bottom water oxygen concentrations (Fig. 5.9). The oxygen concentration decline is
the result of three co-acting processes: Reduced oxygen solubility in the warmer
surface layer, reduced oxygen transport due to the intensified and prolonged
stratification, and increased oxygen consumption in heterotrophic processes. The
modelled oxygen concentrations, however, do not drop low enough to stop
denitrification. On the contrary, in the A2 scenario denitrification is larger than in the
control run (Fig. 5.10).
43
11
Demersal oxygen
CTL
10
A2
9
ml l-1
8
7
6
5
4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Figure 5.9. Average oxygen concentrations in the demersal box of the biogeochemical
model (10 – 50 m water layer). Monthly mean values for 30 year simulation periods
(CTL: control run 1961 – 1990, A2: A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
1.8
Denitrification
1.6
CTL
1.4
A2
mmol m-2 d-1
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Figure 5.10. Simulated denitrification flux. Monthly mean values for 30 year simulation
periods (CTL: control run 1961 – 1990, A2: A2 scenario 2071 – 2100)
The predicted changes in denitrification do not completely agree with empirical
results, which indirectly show the intensity of denitrification under limited oxygen
supply, even though the critical oxygen concentration at which denitrification stops is
not reached. Nitrate accumulation in the bottom layer of the Gulf of Riga (Fig. 5.11)
suggests that the denitrification rate drops significantly in August – September, when
oxygen concentrations reach their minimum.
44
Figure 5.11. Average seasonal dynamics of nitrate + nitrite concentrations in the Gulf of
Riga, 1973 – 2008
This contradiction shows that additional empirical data on the intensity of
denitrification in various depths ranges of the Gulf of Riga should be collected,
because oxygen concentrations are dependent on water depth. Also sediment types
distinctly vary with water depth. Additional information on the relationship between
denitrification rates and oxygen concentrations then can be used to refine the
biogeochemical model calibration and improve predictions of denitrification intensity.
Denitrification, as the most important nitrogen sink in the ecosystem, plays a crucial
role in the management of eutrophication of the Gulf of Riga.
Scientific and economic importance of the work package results
Experimental results and the scenarios modelled have significantly contributed to our
knowledge base on the environment of the Gulf of Riga and its driving factors. The
results have been presented at national and international scientific conferences and
have contributed to scientific publications. Moreover, the results have shown gaps in
our understanding of the processes controlling denitrification in the Gulf of Riga that
should be filled by future research.
The work package results are especially important with respect to activities connected
to the Baltic Sea Action Plan and Latvian national obligations to comply with the
objectives of the Water Framework Directive and Marine Strategy framework
directive. The work package results allow evaluating the efficiency of planned
environmental management measures, which is crucial, especially under limited
financial resources.
1.4 Summary
The predicted climate change will enhance the seasonal stratification of the water
column in the Gulf of Riga, which will in turn negatively affect the oxygen budget of
its bottom water. Accelerated nutrient regeneration will cause higher nutrient
45
concentrations in winter. Together with earlier warming and stratification of the water
column this accumulation causes intensified, earlier phytoplankton development in
spring. The predicted change in phytoplankton composition with increased
cyanobacteria blooms, however, will negatively affect the Gulf of Riga ecosystem and
make it more vulnerable to increases in phosphorus load.
Recommendations to stabilize and reduce eutrophication
•
The predicted climate changes reduce bottom water oxygen concentrations in the
Gulf of Riga. Therefore climate change will increase the vulnerability of the Gulf
of Riga ecosystem towards nutrient inputs, and, to achieve the same effect as
under contemporary climate conditions, nutrient loads have to be reduced to a
larger extend.
•
Climate change will most likely increase cyanobacteria blooms in the Gulf of
Riga and make the ecosystem especially vulnerable towards increases in
phosphorus loads. Therefore phosphorus load reductions are especially important
for the management of eutrophication in the Gulf of Riga.
References:
HELCOM (2003) The Baltic Marine Environment 1992-2002. Baltic Sea Environment
Proceedings No. 87. Helsinki Commission.
Feistel, R., Nausch, G., Hagen, E. 2008. Water exchange between the Baltic Sea and the
North Sea, and conditions in the deep basins. HELCOM Indicator Fact Sheets 2008.
Online. Viewed Oct 10, 2008.
http://www.helcom.fi/environment2/ifs/ifs2008/en_GB/waterexchange/
Schinke, H.and Matthäus, W. (1998) On the causes of major Baltic inflows – an analysis
of long time series. Cont. Shelf Res. 18: 67-98.
Work Package Coordinator: Juris Aigars
46
Work Package Nr. 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEMS
AND BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY OF THE BALTIC SEA.
6.1. Aim of WP:
To assess the impact of the consequences of climate change in the Baltic Sea on
ecosystems in the Latvian waters in order to facilitate the protection of environmental
quality and biodiversity and secure sustainable use of the marine resources.
6.2 Work package tasks in 2009:
1. Update and completion of the fish community model for the long-term projection
of stock and production for Gulf of Riga herring, Baltic Sea sprat and cod.
2. Projection of possible changes of biodiversity and ecosystems in the Gulf of Riga
and the Baltic Sea.
3. Recommendations for the management of marine environment according to the
climate change forecasts.
4. Recommendations for the fisheries management according to the fish stock
development tendencies.
5. Reporting of the results – presentations and publications.
6.3Results of the WP6.
Task 1: content of the work and results.
A mid-term forecasting model developed in 2008 was used to produce several
calculations of herring stock and catch dynamics at various regimes of water
temperature. The herring stock assessment in 2009 confirmed the relation of stock
size and water temperature included in the model.
Similar mid-term forecasting model was developed for the Eastern Baltic cod. To
describe the stock-recruitment ratio, modified Ricker model was used with an added
function f(Env) which reflects a linear combination of environmental factors. Several
scenarios were provided for cod stock and recruitment mid- and long-term forecasts
taking into account the potential climate change and local environmental situation.
1. Ricker model using reproductive volume (RV) as the environmental factor. Model
was simulated at various levels of RV and fishing mortality – F=1.08 and F=0.3.
2. Ricker model using forecast of Baltic Sea salinity (Sal80-100) fluctuations as the
environmental factor. Salinity scenarios are according to IPCC A2 including variation
around median till 2100 and decrease by 1 psu till 2100. Fishing mortality in the
model had following values: F=1.08, F=0.7, F=0.3 and F=0 (no fishing).
The results of mid-term forecast indicate the substantial increase of stock occurs only
if the fishing mortality is being reduced (Figs.6.1,6.2) at the situation when RV grows
at the second year of period and then fluctuates around the median. At high fishing
mortality stock increase occurs only for some years.
47
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
650 km3
500 km3
350 km3
150 km3
50 km3
15
20
200000
300000
650 km3
500 km3
350 km3
150 km3
50 km3
Recruits
130000 150000 170000 190000
SSB in tons
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
Years
Years
0
5
10
15
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
200000
650 km3
500 km3
350 km3
150 km3
50 km3
300000
Recruits
6e+05 8e+05
4e+05
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
2e+05
SSB in tons
Fig.6.1 Mid-term forecast of cod spawning stock and recruitment dynamics. RV is the
environmental factor. Scenario with F=1.08 and RV increase at year 2.
20
0
Years
5
10
15
650 km3
500 km3
350 km3
150 km3
50 km3
20
Years
Fig.6.2 Mid-term forecast of cod spawning stock and recruitment dynamics. RV is the
environmental factor. Scenario with F=0.3 and RV increase at year 2.
Using the model with salinity fluctuations and high fishing mortality F = 1.08, the
spawning stock extincts independently from any climate scenario (Fig.6.3). If F is
reduced to 0.7, spawning stock shows certain stabilization. Stabilization of the stock
has higher level when F is limited furthermore. In general the climate impact on the
forecasted spawning stock is small. It becomes more significant when the F= 0.7.
48
400 600
200
w ithout climate change
w ith climate change
0
SSB (thousand tons)
F = 1.08
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2060
2080
2100
2060
2080
2100
2060
2080
2100
Year
500
200
0
SSB (thousand tons)
F = 0.7
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
1000
400
0
SSB (thousand tons)
F = 0.3
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
1000 2000
0
SSB (thousand tons)
F=0
1980
2000
2020
2040
Year
Fig. 6.3. Dynamics of cod spawning stock at various salinity forecasts and fishing
mortality levels.
The analysis of sprat stock dynamics showed that the long-term changes of stock can
be described with a periodic function. Abundance variation of the year old sprat or
stock recruitment was reflected by the second order parabolic equation
y1=a+b×x+c×x2, showing a vague increasing tendency for a 38 yrs period (Fig.6.4).
The equation y2=y1+b1×sinx+c×cosx was used to find a smoothed curve describing
the annual recruitment variation with a period of 25 yrs. One more periodic function
was employed for a 12 year period to have the best model fit y3=y2+b2×sinx+c×cosx (Fig. 6.5).
49
Zivju skaits, miljonos
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
0
Gads
y = viengadnieku skaits, mln
y1 = a + b × x + c × x2
y2 = y1 + b1 × sin x + c × cos x
Fig. 6.4. Tendency of productivity of sprat year classes (y axis – abundance of fish in
mill., red curve – abundance of 1 year old fish).
Zivju skaits, miljonos
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
0
Gads
y = viengadnieku skaits, mln
y2 = y1 + b1 × sin x + c × cos x
y3 = y2 + b2 × sin x + c × cos x
Fig. 6.5. Function curves of productivity of sprat year classes (y axis – abundance of
fish in mill., red curve – abundance of 1 year old fish).
The generated catch forecast of sprat produce differs significantly from the forecast
curves used by ICES (Fig. 6.6). WP6 forecast includes the period till 2030 while
ICES has till 2017. The major difference lies within constant productivity of year
classes used in ICES forecasts whereas our approach is to project the productivity
alterations and only afterwards the catch is forecasted.
50
600
Nozveja, tūkst. t
500
477,1 477,3
450,7
400
454,5
416,7
400,2
374,0
300
309,7 297,1
295,6 298,9
260,9
246,0
200
336,1
333,1
327,0
196,0
177,5
137,4 128,9 149,3
100
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
0
Gads
ICES prognoze 90%
ICES prognoze 50%
ICES prognoze 10%
ICES prognoze 75%
ICES prognoze 25%
LZRA prognoze
Fig 6.6 . Comparison of sprat catch forecasts by WP6 (LZRA) and ICES (y axis – catch,
thous.t).
According to the model results, in 2010-2015 the decrease of both stock and catch is
expected. After 2015 the stock and catch will have a cycle of growth for 7-11 yrs.
Thus the catch limits should be modified and fishing mortality reduced accordingly to
keep the sufficient level of stock.
Task 2: content of the work and results.
Gulf of Riga
The water temperature increase in the sea is indicated both by globally and regionally
provided climate change scenarios. In the areas of the Gulf where the depth exceeds
20m seasonal thermocline will be present a month longer. The disappearance of ice
cover means earlier development of phyto- and zooplankton communities and shift of
macrozoobenthos breeding time. In winter the phytoplankton community will hardly
have any significant species change, however the experiment results suggest decrease
of share of arctic species like Achnantes taeniata and growth of boreal taxa
Thalassiosira baltica, Chaetoceros spp. and Melosira nummuloides.
During spring the composition of dominant species will be determined by nutrient
concentrations and water stability. If according to WP5 results, the nutrient
concentrations will increase and water stratification sets earlyer then at present, the
current dominance of diatoms will be replaced by dinoflagellates (Peridiniella
catenata). If the wind activity will be strong causing higher water turbulence then
diatoms could maintain their dominant position as the turbulence helps the cells to
remain in the water column. The results of experimental series indicate the increased
species diversity (Shannon index) in the conditions of higher temperature. Also spring
zooplankton development will start earlier without any changes in species composition
as the total abundance is built by 3- 4 taxons until the temperature reaches +15°. In
case of dinoflagellate dominance as a food source higher proportion of rotifers is
possible.
Also in summer the wind strength will have certain significance besides the
temperature increase and water stratification. If the wind activity will be stronger the
increased abundance of cyanobacteria will not be observed, contrary to the forecast by
WP5 model. At the coastal areas of the gulf upwellings will occur more frequently,
51
enlarging the nutrient concentrations and favouring the development of diatoms
Actinocyclus octonarius, Skeletonema costatum, green algae Monoraphidium
contortum, Oocystis spp., flagellates, including Dinophysis acuminata,
Chrysochromulina spp. Growth of cyanobacteria – most probably Aphanizomenon flosaquae – will be more characteristic for the open areas of the Gulf at the end of summer,
beginning of autumn. Observations of the last 10 yrs when summers have been more
windy than in 1990s indicate a stepwise decline of cyanobacterial share in the total
phytoplankton abundance (Fig.6.7).
Fig.6.7. Biomass (mg/m3) dynamics of phytoplankton groups at the open part of the Gulf
of Riga, summer 1998 - 2008.
However, with the growth of phosphate concentrations and water temperature an
increase of total phytoplankton biomass is possible exactly as a result of successful
cyanobacterial development (Table 6.1).
Table 6.1
Shift of summer phytoplankton species with the water temperature increase (%)
Start of
experiment
Gulf of Riga
7
1,6
End of experiment
+16oC
+20oC
+24oC
Increase of potentially toxic species, % of total biomass
59
87
99
94
Shannon index
1,2
0,7
0,1
0,5
Increase of total biomass, times
52
+28oC
1
1,3
17,8
3,4
Zooplankton community can have a higher share of freshwater species (Cyclops spp.,
Daphnia spp.) as the salinity will decrease both in the sea and the Gulf. Abundance of
copepod Acartia bifilosa and cladocerans Evadne nordmanni, Pleopsis polyphemoides
could decrease because these species have higher optimal salinity. Still, the changes in
the food web would affect mostly the lower levels since the total zooplankton
abundance is more likely to increase and food source for fish will not be modified
substantially. The low oxygen concentrations below thermocline (according to WP5
suggestions) will be unfavourable for the relict copepod species Limnocalanus
macrurus. L.macrurus is a valuable fish food item although has low numbers already
for 30 years.
Increase of primary production in combination with prolonged low oxygen
concentration will classically lead to decline of macrozoobenthic communities in the
areas deeper than 30 m. Similar situation has been already observed in 1990s (6.8.).
14000
121 A
100
-2
119 B
121 B
10000
80
8000
60
6000
40
4000
20
2000
0
Biomass, ww. g*m
12000
Abundance, ind.*m -2
120
119 A
0
1980
1984
1988
1992
Years
1996
2000
2004
2008
Fig.6.8. Dynamics of macrozoobenthos abundance (A) and biomass (B) at the central
part of the Gulf of Riga 1980-2008.
Consequently the self-purification possibility of the Gulf varies and the food base for
benthic fish is reduced. At the same time the importance of coastal areas will raise for
thriving functioning of the Gulf since long unfavourable conditions are not expected
there. In the areas with soft bottom sediments Gammarus sp., Bathyporeia pilosa,
Marenzelleria viridis and Macoma baltica will increase their proportion in the total
zoobenthos abundance and biomass. All these taxons belong to the group having
moderately eutrophied environment as the optimal one.
Course of future for phytobenthic communities will depend on the level of nutrient
concentrations at the coastal areas. Short-living algae will be more present if nutrient
concentrations grow. Increased wind activity will diminish water transparency and thus
also limit prosperous development of perennial algal species. The impact of more
frequent upwellings due to windiness upon macroalgal communities requires further
investigations.
53
Autumn will be less distinguishable, summer species will stay in the plankton for a
longer period. It is possible that phytoplankton autumn bloom will be without peaks but
distributed over longer time period, since combination of nutrients, temperature and
light intensity, necessary for diatom development, will be shifted in time. The
occurrence of diatom Coscinodiscus granii will be less frequent and Actinocyclus
octonarius will become the dominant species. Projected environmental conditions and
food source will be longer favourable for zooplankton growth, including also invasive
species.
The Baltic Sea
Seasonal course in the Baltic Sea will resemble the processes in the Gulf with an earlier
start of spring since already the last 10 years haven’t had ice cover. Faster stratification
will limit the range of spring bloom with the decrease of diatoms due to reduced
availability of nutrients. Therefore a share of flagellates will increase, supporting also
the development of smaller size zooplankton groups, mostly rotifers.
Changes in the ecosystems of the Baltic Sea will be related to trans-boundary processes
to much higher extent than in the Gulf. As the example, at the southern part of Latvian
Baltic coast level of primary production and water trophy is determined by the
transformed freshwater inflow originating from the Curonian lagoon. So the future of at
least this area depends greatly on the Nemunas runoff dynamics.
The development of cyanobacteria during summer in the Baltic Proper will be
determined by wind intensity and number of sunny days which is more important for
cyanobacterial growth than the water temperature itself (BACC, 2008). During the last
eight years no mass occurrence of cyanobacteria has been recorded (HELCOM, 2007).
Due to decreasing salinity the species composition of zooplankton community will
gradually become similar to the taxonomic structure of the Gulf.
The strengthening of stratification at the open part of the sea will decline the quality of
benthic habitats. Areas without macrofauna will extent in the direction of shallower
parts of the sea. Species structure at the sites with seasonal oxygen deficiency will shift
from attached filter feeders to mobile, opportunistic species which will not assure the
uptake of organic particles by filtration.
Task 3: content of the work and results.
Taking into account the abovementioned potential changes of marine ecosystems,
following management suggestions are provided for the next five years:
- revise the reduction of nitrogen loads for Latvia in the frame of the Baltic Sea Action
Plan (HELCOM BSAP) in order to introduce the load reduction also for the Gulf of
Riga not present in the current version;
- elaborate and implement the load reduction activities as soon as possible in all related
areas (agriculture, water resources management etc.);
- create zonation of the coastal underwater areas with various level of protection
according to the functional importance of the site;
- perform regular observations of marine environment and provide model calculations
of processes, based on the observations for flexible management decisions.
54
Task 4: content of the work and results.
The current environmental conditions are favourable for the Gulf of Riga herring thus
the increase of stock could be expected. Still the calculations of fishing mortality
indicate that illegal fishing constitutes a significant part of the total catch. If the illegal
fishing can be stopped now, the stock biomass after 2020 would be on a much higher
level and so also the allowed catch.
The same problem is related to the cod – the level of stock is significantly influenced
by the illegal fishing, thus causing high fishing mortality and reducing the total allowed
catch.
Therefore a successful fisheries management requires the reduction of fishing mortality
via exclusion of illegal fishing almost independently of the climate. The climate change
can improve or worsen the productivity of year classes but in the situation of intensive
fishing will not solve the level of stocks.
6.4.Summary
The productivity of the Gulf of Riga herring will increase at higher mean water
temperature in May. Dynamics of the Baltic cod stock will relay on fishing mortality by
positive or negative modifications of salinity fluctuation. The abundance of sprat will
vary in the cycle of 7-11 years not so directly related to climate change.
Rise of temperature will prolong the productive period for pelagic communities and
increase the total biomass. Phytoplankton spring blooms will occur earlier. A
proportion of freshwater representatives will be higher in zooplankton community. At
the deep parts of Latvian marine areas the long stratification will deteriorate quality of
benthic habitats. The importance of coastal areas will increase as the central productive
regions of Latvian marine waters.
The results of WP indicate that for successful management of marine resources in the
conditions of climate change the restriction of consequences from human activities
upon the marine ecosystems is of utmost importance. Reduced nutrient loads, also in
trans-boundary aspect, cautious fisheries policy and fulfilment of requirements for
protected areas are the main criteria for continuous thriving functioning of marine
ecosystems.
Work Package Coordinator: Anda Ikauniece
55
Work Package Nr. 9: RUNOFF EXTREMES CAUSED BY THE CLIMATE
CHANGE AND THEIR IMPACT ON TERRITORIES UNDER THE FLOOD
RISK
9.1. Work package goal:
The aim of this work package is to forecast climate change impact on recurrence and
regime of runoff extremes: floods and droughts, and to identify the impact of these
phenomena on flood-plain ecosystem in the Middle-Daugava region.
9.2. Tasks of the 4th stage:
1. Determine the flood and drought impact on bio-geochemical fluxes in flood-plain
systems and the catchment;
2. Assess the impact of floods and droughts on floodplain-lake ecosystems of river
Daugava;
3. Suggest the measures to mitigate the flood and drought risk.
9.3. Results of 4d stage tasks:
Task 1 Summary and results
Finishing the work on this task during the 4th phase was done, firstly, by continuing
the assessment of potential soil losses using the empirical model USLE applying GIS,
and secondly, by comparison of theoretically estimated values and the measured
values of sediment and nutrient load transferred from headwater catchments into the
river. It allowed forecasting of the impact of climate change scenarios on biogeochemical fluxes in flood-plain systems and the catchments.
Unlike the 3rd phase when the modelling approach was tested for comparatively small
areas, in this stage modelling was performed for the territory of more than 200 km2
located in Augšdaugava depression. Considering that, it was necessary:
1. to prepare additional geospatial data (R rainfall runoff factor or erosivity factor; K
soil erodibility factor; LS topographic factor; C land cover and management
factor; P support practice factor) for the entire territory of modelling
2. solve the issues of limited max. output number of pixels for development of grids
(Extent could not exceed 24 million pixels in ArcGIS) to find the correct
algorithm for modelling and calculating the raster data in smaller parts with
subsequent merging separate grids into the bigger one.
Results of modelling (Fig 9.1) show that the main part of territory under study is not
affected by soil erosion risk or the potential soil losses have low values. However, as
can easily be seen from USLE equation (A = R · K ·LS · C · P), R or rainfall erosivity
factor has a substantial and direct impact on amount of eroded material. Hence, it is
an obvious conclusion that seasonal changes in amount of precipitation and
shortening the reoccurrence periods of extreme rainfall in Latvia, particularly in its
south-eastern part (SeĦĦikovs et al. 2008), will trigger increasing of R-factor values.
In its turn, it is highly probable that it will trigger the intensification of erosion and
thereby will intensify sediment and nutrient transferring from headwater catchments
to the recipient water bodies.
56
Figure 9.1. Values of erosion obtained by applying empirical USLE model integrated in GIS, which shows potential loss of soil from
surface unit (t • ha-1• yr-1) in Augšdaugava depression (ESRI grid raster data, pixel 2 m)
57
Comparison of estimated values obtained by modelling and the measured values of sediment
and nutrient load transferred from headwater catchments clearly shows that in some cases the
observed amount of erosion products delivered from gully catchments are higher than
theoretically calculated, e.g. suspended sediment load shortly can reach up to 8,000 kg day-1
during extreme runoff events. In general, one of the main sources of sediment load
transported to water bodies is the material eroded within gully channels rather than erosion
products transferred from catchments themselves. Suspended sediments and nutrient output
are very responsive to extreme runoff events, which occur over short time spans due to a
small size of gully catchments and rapid flow of water, leading to a strong underestimation of
loads when using statistical methods based on the mean monthly concentration.
Variations of nutrient loads are mainly related to the variety of runoff formative weather
conditions. The obtained results on average concentrations of nutrients vary within
catchments from 0.01 to 1.23 mg l-1 of N-NO3-, from 0.21 to 1.73 mg l-1 of N-tot, from 0.03
to 0.82 mg l-1 of P-PO43- and from 0.04 to more than 1.01 mg l-1 of P-tot. However, the
maximal values of the measured concentrations coincide with a peak discharge runoff.
Table 9.1
Min. and max. Concentrations of nutrients measured in gully streams during different runoff
formation conditions
Nutrients
Runoff
formation
rain in winter on
bare soil
norm. snow
melting in spring
extreme snow
melting in spring
groundwater
drainage in
summer
norm. rain in
autumn
N-NO3-
N-tot
P-PO43-
P-tot
min.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
max.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
min.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
max.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
min.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
max.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
min.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
max.
conc.
(mg·l-1)
0,14
0,20
0,33
0,48
0,13
0,22
0,16
0,23
0,35
1,23
0,56
1,73
0,03
0,15
0,06
0,22
0,05
0,77
0,21
1,06
0,03
0,82
0,05
1,01
0,03
0,32
0,37
0,47
0,04
0,31
0,04
0,33
0,01
0,24
0,49
0,95
0,06
0,06
0,28
0,43
Results of analyzing of suspended sediment and nutrient area-specific load (kg·ha-1·d-1)
during different runoff formation conditions demonstrate the positive effect of vegetation
cover in mitigation of erosion products output, e.g. in catchments with high proportion of
canopy vegetation runoff formation in gully channels was not observed in some cases (Fig
9.2 and Fig 9.3). However, the presence of vegetation in headwater catchments does not
prevent totally the formation of suspended sediment and nutrient load. It is associated with
the decomposition of fallen leaf remains and other organic particles which are washed into
the streams from forest litter. This fact is very important, because considering the data of
climate changes modelling adopted for Latvia, the forecasted increase of mean monthly
temperature in December and January and shortening of cold season will have an impact on
duration of the period with higher rates of organic matter decomposition and additional
production of nutrients transferred from the headwater catchments.
Figure 9.2 Area specific load (kg·ha-1·d-1) of nutrient transferred from selected headwater gully
catchments during norm. snow melt in spring (description of gully catchments are given in
previous report)
Figure 9.3 Area specific load (kg·ha-1·d-1) of suspended sediments and total dissolved solids
transferred from selected headwater gully catchments during norm. snow melt in spring
(description of gully catchments are given in previous report)
The mean daily suspended sediment load from gully catchments are 20 to 30 times lower in
comparison to the suspended sediment yield of small rivers in SE Latvia, but considering the
high number of gully streams in this region, they are important sources of eroded material
transferred to the receiving stream.
59
Task 2 Summary and results
During 2009, the long-term changes in statistical probability of the low water periods
(hydrological droughts) of the Middle Daugava River, which could affect the floodplain lake
ecosystems, were evaluated. The daily mean discharge data series of the Daugava River at
Daugavpils since 1936 were analysed. Probability distribution of the maximum drought event
(the relative runoff deficit and the low flow duration) was estimated for the all-year droughts,
summer droughts and winter droughts of two 40-years long observation periods (1936-1977
and 1966-2007, respectively). The discharge data series were obtained from the Global
Runoff Data Centre, 56068 Koblenz, Germany. The task was performed by applying the
“Nizovka 2003 - Distributions of Low Flow Extremes” program elaborated by the Department
of Mathematics and the Institute of Hydrology, Agricultural University of Wroclaw (Poland).
According to this study, probability distribution of the Daugava’s low-flow periods changed
significantly over time (Gruberts 2009). Today, it is more probable, that the runoff deficit and
duration of the low-flow periods will not exceed the same values when compared to the first
40 years of hydrological observations (Fig.9.4). On the one hand, such changes for the winter
droughts could be explained by the shortening of the winter duration and increasing of the air
temperatures in Latvia during the last decades. On the other hand, the observed changes in
distribution of summer droughts are, probably, related to substantial changes in the land use
within the Daugava’s drainage basin, condition of the land amelioration systems etc..
Figure 9.4 Long-term changes in the probability of real time duration of the all year droughts for
the Daugava River at Daugavpils
Along with the existing trends of climate change, further shortening of the winter droughts
and less severe discharge deficit of the Daugava River at Daugavpils is expected. This, in
turn, could have significant impact on the ecosystems of the Daugava’s floodplain lakes: their
water chemistry and quality, plant and animal communities, overgrowing by the macrophytes
etc..
60
Based on the seasonal observations performed during the last 5 years, a possible impact of
the future winter hydrologic and weather conditions on the phytoplankton communities of the
Daugava River and its largest floodplain lakes was evaluated. Unusually warm January 2007
could be used as an example of such conditions, when there was untypically high water level
and temperature observed in the Daugava River at Berezovka (Fig. 9.5). In addition, there
was no ice cover in the river and its floodplain lakes at all.
Under such ice-free winter conditions, phytoplankton communities of the Daugava River
upstream and downstream from Daugavpils as well as of its largest floodplain lakes were
dominated by different species of the blue-green algae (mainly Oscillatoria sp.) (Fig. 9.6). In
some cases (like the lake Koša and Dvietes), they formed relatively high total biomass
without any reference to their trophic state in summer (Fig. 9.7).
Along with the existing trends of climate change, such hydrologic and weather conditions are
expected to be observed more frequently in the floodplain of the Middle Daugava. Therefore,
more frequent blooming of the blue-green algae during the winter low water period as well as
a significant reduction of water quality in the Daugava River at Daugavpils is expected.
Figure 9.5 The water level and temperature dynamics of the Daugava River at Berezovka in
2005-2009 (Suveizda S., unpubl.)
61
Figure 9.6 Relative proportion of different algae groups in total phytoplankton biomass of the
Daugava River and its largest floodplain lakes, January 18, 2007
Figure 9.7 Total biomass of different phytoplankton groups of the Daugava River and its largest
floodplain lakes, January 18, 2007
The analysis of zooplankton organisms was performed, summarizing data for 2005 – 2008
year in the Skuku and Dvietes lakes, and also in the Daugava River upstream and
downstream of the floodplain lakes. The results of study of the floodplain lakes results were
summarized for a low water period (2004, 22 floodplain lakes and reservoirs of the Daugava
River).
By means of the RDA analysis (Canoco for Windows 4.5.), it was found, that changes of
zooplankton abundance, biomass, species diversity and taxa are significantly affected by
temperature and water level fluctuations, especially in spring, coinciding with the flood or the
flash flood season. During water level raising the total abundance of zooplankton was
increased in the Dvietes Lake (Fig. 9.8). A possible water rise is as a favourable
62
0.2
environmental factor in floodplain lakes. On the other hand, during falling of the water level
and low water period the abundance and biomass of Copepoda increase.
Tem_C
Taxa
ORP
H' zooplabund
Rot_abund
H' zoopl biom
zoopl_abund
ROT_biom
zoop_biom
COP_biom
relative_water_level
pH
COP_ abund
-0.6
conductivity
O2
-0.8
0.4
Figure 9.8 Result of the RDA, Dvietes Lake.
0.8
It was found also, that in the Daugava River below inflow of waters of floodplain lakes in the
river (Berezovkas inflow in Daugava), a considerable role in the water level fluctuations (Fig.
9.9), can indicate the influence of the floodplain floods and flood water on the river.
pH
Tem_C
conductivity
relative_water_level
Taxa
ROT_biom
Rot_abund
zoopl_abund
zoop_biom
H' zooplbiom
O2
COP_abund
H'_zooplabund
COP_biom
-0.4
ORP
-0.8
0.6
Figure 9.9 Result of the RDA, Daugava River below Berezovkas inflow
It was established, that in low water period frequency of flooding has a lasting impact on
floodplain lakes that are flooded frequently (several times a year), and a considerable pointer
63
0.6
is also morphometry of lakes and nutrient amount (Fig. 9.10). In low water period in the
shallow and in the overgrown floodplain lakes a considerable fraction of zooplankton is
represented by Cladocera: small Bosminidae and Chydoridae. A negative relationship
between abundance of Cladocera and the oxidation-reduction potential (r= -0.664, P < 0.01)
probably alludes to the presence and activities of bacterioplankton and their role as a food
source for zooplankton. On the other hand, in the deepest floodplain lakes a considerable
fraction of zooplankton is represented by the Rotifera.
Surface/Depth
Macroph_taxa
CLAD_abund
Macroph_overgrow%
Phyt_biom
N tot
Flood_frequency
H'_zooplabund_cen
Zoopl_taxa
Chloroph
Phyt_taxa
Phyt_taxa_centralpart
Zoop_taxace
H'_phytopl
-0.8
Zoopl_abund
COP_abund
ROT_abund
-1.0
1.0
Figure 9.10 Result of the RDA, generalization of 22 floodplain lakes
Task 3 Summary and results
The obtained results demonstrate that from areas with higher proportion of arable land and
less canopy vegetation cover, the transfer of eutrophying substances is considerably higher,
i.e. load of supplied suspended sediment and nutrients is 3 – 20 times higher. Considering the
forecasted increase of number of extreme hydro-meteorological events and more frequent
formation of Hortonian runoff induced by climate changes, local municipalities have to
include in their spatial development and planning programs the measures targeted to afforest
the areas susceptible to erosion. Such preventive measures will diminish the risk of erosion
and flash-floods on the one hand and will mitigate the supply of eutrophying substances to
the recipient water bodies on the other hand, hence minimizing the risk of floods in general
due to decreasing amount of material, which is accumulating and silting up the river
channels.
64
9.4. Summary
In course of achieving objectives of the fourth stage of WP9, series of hydrological and
meteorological data that are necessary for modelling were analysed. A study of the role of
hydrological conditions for the ecology of phytoplankton an zooplankton communities in the
floodplain lakes in the Middle Daugava continued in 2009 and a typical composition of the
algae communities was determined as well as their dominant taxa in the situations of various
flooding frequency.
Apart from the above mentioned, analysis of major results of the expedition aimed at the
study of the Daugava inundation, that was undertaken on 26 March, 2006, was carried out,
and a report was written regarding the possible use of a floating instrument platform for
hydrological study of the river- floodplain system.
Historical and current frequency of the repetition of extreme discharge in Daugava was
assessed, and recommendations in regards of the flood risks were worked out for the involved
municipalities in the Daugavpils region.
Major hydrological functions of the Middle Daugava floodplain are reduction of annual
amplitude of water level fluctuation by 3-4 meters and detention of the timing of the highest
flood water levels in the year by 1-2 days downstream from the Dvietes floodplain. In
addition, the floodplain accumulates a large amount of suspended and dissolved matter,
which, in turn, stimulates productivity of floodplain meadows, wetlands and lakes. Floods are
regarded as an essential factor of maintaining the high biological diversity in the river
floodplain ecosystems.
Work Package Coordinator: Arturs Škute
65
Work Package Nr. 7: ADAPTATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SECTOR
POLICIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
7.1. Work package goals:
Develop reseasrch-based recommendations for the adaptation of environmental and sectoral
water related policies in Latvia to climate change.
7.2. Work package Phase 4 Objectives:
1. Transform the results of Work packages 1-6 and 9 into specific recommendations that can
be included in normative acts and planning documents, including an assessment of the
potential impact of recommendations on sustainable development in Latvia.
2. Based on the results of undertaken research develop an adaptation brochure and a webbased publication on adaptation to climate change impacts for municipal personnel,
including water sector specialists and land use planners.
3. Organize a seminar for municipal personnel, including water sector specialists and land
use planners regarding the results of research on climate change in the water sector in
Latvia.
7.3. Work package Phase 4 results:
Task 1. Work undertaken and results:
In cooperation with Work Packages 1-6 and 9 and based on the results of research undertaken
during NRP Phases 1-3 adaptation measures to climate change were recommended. A greater
number and more specific adaptation measures were proposed for inland waters than for the
marine environment. Adaptation measures pertaining to the Baltic Sea ecosystem were more
problematic because of a greater number of factors and complex interrelationships to be taken
into account. Recommendations for adaptation to climate change in the water sector in Latvia
ar compiled in the adaptation measure brochure (DP7 Task 2).
Recommendations regarding measures for adaptation to climate were submitted to:
1. Responsible institutions
strategies/plans:
during
the
development
of
laws/regulations
and
a. Revisions to the Protection Zone Law in the Latvian Parliament – adaptation
measures in the context of Baltic Sea coastal erosion.
b. Coastal Zone Development Strategy being drafted by the Ministry of Regional
Development and Municipal Affairs.
c. Revisions to the Spatial Planning Law - Ministry of Regional Development and
Municipal Affairs.
d. National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy developed by the Ministry of
Environment.
e. River Basin Management Plans developed by the State Environment, Geology and
Meteorology Agency.
66
2. Recommendations regarding adaptation to climate change were submitted to responsible
organizations, even if law/regulations or strategies/plans were not being developed or
revised. The following recommendations were submitted:
a. Climate change adaptation measures for wastewater collection/treatment systems
(Ministry of Environment).
b. Climate change adaptation measures in relation to the use of plant protection
products - State Plant Protection Service.
c. Climate change adaptation measures for large cities in Latvia.
3. An information brief was submitted to the Strategic Analysis Committee of the
President’s Office and to the Cabinet of Ministers highlighting the significance of climate
change to the economy of Latvia.
Task 2. Work undertaken and results
An adaptation to climate change brochure for the professional audience was produced which
contains the results of four years of of research by the NRP. The following topics were
addressed by the publication:
1. Observed and predicted climate change in Latvia and the potential impact on the
economy (pages 1-30).
2. The international and national legal framework for adaptation to climate change (pages
30-40).
3. Necessary adaptation measures in specific sectors of the economy – agriculture, forestry,
fisheries, energy, education and research, communal services and other areas of activity
such as land use planning and river basin management (pages 40-60).
To ensure that the content and design of the adaptation brochure meets the needs of the target
audience consultations were held with representatives of relevant Ministries and with an
environmental planning consultant.
2000 copies of the brochure were printed and distributed to users free of charge. The
publication is also available to others upon request. Information concerning the availibility of
the brochure was publicized electronically (e-mail, internet) and the brochure is available for
download from the KALME web-page.
A summary of recommendations regarding climate change adaptation measures were made
available in the 2nd edition of the KALME newsletter (the first edition of the KALME
newsletter was published at the end of Phase 3 of the project).
To minimize the impact of the KALME project on climate change the adaptation brochure
was printed on 100% recycled paper using natural plant-based ink.
Task 3 Work undertaken and results
A final project seminar will take place at the beginning of December in conjunction with the
publication of project brochure. Seminar participants will include KALME researchers and
relevant government personnel from Ministries, municipalities, agencies, as well as land use
planners and environmental consultants.
67
On 22.05.2009. a workshop was organized between KALME researchers and the national
body responsible for the preparing river basin management plans (State Environment,
Geology and Meteorology Agency). The workshop was not only a venue for proposing
adaptation measures for the plans, but also gave the opportunity to discuss the merits and
shortcomings of various adaptation measures.
The scientific and economic significance of the results
The goal of Work package 7 was not to undertake research a such, however, a scientific
result of the work is the compilation of themes/topics for future research related to the
development of more appropriate measures for adaptation to climate change in the water
sector.
The proposed measures for adaptation to climate change in Latvia are of strategic importance
to economic development in Latvia because:
a) For the first time adaptation measures for climate change have been identified that are
specific to the climate change impacts to be experienced by Latvia, more so than the
measures presented in the EU White Paper on adaptation to climate change (01.04.2009).
b) Proposed adaptation measures can be used in sector planning activities to reduce negative
impacts of climate change on the economy and to gain from the positive aspects of
climate change.
c) The proposed adaptation measures will form the basis for the Latvian National
Adaptation Strategy in the water sector and the methodology used in KALME can serve
as a ”good practice” example to be used by other sectors.
d) Implementation of proposed adaptation measures could help lessen negative impacts on
the complex and fragile Baltic Sea environment through the reduction of the discharge of
biogenic compounds from adjacent land areas.
The adaptation to climate change brochure has economic added value as it provides many
government sector personnel (national and municipal specialists and planners, river basin
managers, land use planners, forestry, fisheries, communal services, energy, and agricultural
specialists) and educators and researchers in Latvia with practical recommendations
regarding adaptation to climate change.
7.4. Summary
Phase 4 activities of the KALME project resulted in the compilation and synthesis of research
results and the formulation of sector-based recommendations and measures for adaptation to
climate change. Additionally, the undertaken work has contributed to the Latvian National
Adaptation Strategy and other legal and planning initiatives, as well as fostered discussions in
the research community and state and municipal institutions regarding climate change and
adaptation . The adaptation brochure will be a useful guide for many sectors of the economy
when dealing with issues of adaptation to climate change.
Work Package Coordinator: Kristine ĀboliĦa
68
Work Package 8: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND PUBLIC OUTREACH
Goals:
Ensure that the Program tasks are fulfilled successfully and in high quality. Facilitate the
development of the aquatic and climate change research in Latvia and its visibility on national
and international level.
Phase 4 tasks of WP8:
1. Scientific supervision of the Programme, coordination of the WP work, daily management
of the Programme implementation;
2. Organizing the annual Programme conference on 20th February, 2009;
3. Publishing of the Proceedings of the Conference;
4. Cooperation with the Ministry of the Environment in development of the climate
adaptation policy;
5. Arranging of the 3rd meeting of the Advisory Board to ensure high level of Programme’s
scientific quality;
6. Dissemination of the outputs of the Programme to broad public.
Phase 4 results of WP8:
Task 1: Scientific guidance of the Program, coordination of the WP work and everyday
management.
To better supervise Program’s work and secure the link between the central management and
the Work Packages scattered in different research institutions and universities, the Program
Secretariat regularly arranges meetings of WP coordinators. In 2009, three such meetings have
already been held.
Program Secretariat supervises distribution of the funds among the Work Packages and
research institutions involved in the program according to the agreement with the Latvian
Council of Science. It also secures preparation and submission of timely and correct finance
reports to the Latvian Council of Science.
Task 2: Organising of Program’s annual conference (20 February 2009)
Program’s annual conference was held within the framework of the 67th annual Scientific
Conference of University of Latvia. Session “Climate change and the waters of Latvia” took
place on 20th February, 2009. Altogether, the session attracted more than 80 participants
representing 3 universities of Latvia, several research institutions, as well as governmental and
municipal authorities and other stakeholders. Participants were presented with 19 oral papers
and 19 posters dealing with the topics of the character of the climate change and its impact on
the environmental quality and ecosystems of the inland waters of Latvia and the Baltic Sea.
Task 3: Preparation and publishing collection of papers for University of Latvia 67th
Conference session”Climate Change and Waters”
69
During the 4nd phase a collection of papers presented at 67th UL Conference session “Climate
Change and Waters” has been prepared and published. The 101-page book contains 34 papers
and abstracts prepared by 62 authors.
Task 4: Cooperation with the LV Ministry of the Environment in developing the climate
change adaptation policy.
In addition to the work described in the report of WP 7, in 2009 Programme participants took
place in the elaboration of Latvian position regarding the climate change adapting solutions
in the agricultural sector. Representatives of the Programme participated in presenting of
information and formulating of the Latvian position concerning the EU ‘White Paper’ on
adaptation to the climate change where information of the adaptation measures elaborated by
the Programme participants was summarized.
Several participants of the Programme are members of the specialized work group
established by the Minister of the Environment; programme director Prof. M. KĜaviĦš is the
chair of this work group. The objective of this group is to elaborate the adaptation strategy to
the climate change. Thus, the application and implementation of the Programmes’ scientific
results into development the state policy is streamlined.
Studies on significant principles and criteria to be taken into account while developing the
national climate change adaptation policy and relevant regulations have been performed
within the frames of the Programme. These issues are important also for harmonizing the
national and international legislative frameworks. Opportunities to further develop the
education on the climate change in the higher education system of Latvia have been
undertaken as well.
Task 5: Arranging of the International Advisory Board, and organizing of its 4st meeting.
To facilitate the scientific quality of the Programme and secure its international visibility and
links with the similar research activities in other countries, the International Advisory Board
(IAB) was established. Several internationally reputable experts on the climate change
research related with the water environment, as well as high level officers of the Latvian
Ministry of the Environment responsible for elaboration of the climate change adaptation
policy have been invited to join the IAB. The third session of the IAB will take place on
16th-17th November 2009 as a back-to-back event with the meeting of the BALTX Science
Steering Group. Prior this meeting the results of Program will be reported to the
BALTEX/KALME seminar „Impact of the Climate Change on the water Environment of
Latvia, and its impact in the southern basin of the Baltic Sea”.
Task 6: Public information about Programme results.
Program’s webpage www.kalme.daba.lv has been created and is being updated regularly. The
website informs about the structure of program, its goals, and work tasks, and the work
70
progress. File archive of the website contains the most important documents and publications
of the Program, while the news section informs on actualities of CC in Latvia and elsewhere.
The webpage serves both as an external dissemination tool and as a means of the internal
communication among the members of the Program team.
During the reporting period program coordinators gave many interviews to the media on the
CC issues.
Work Package Coordinators A. Andrušaitis, M.KĜaviĦš
71
Annexes
Annex1
Aggregated performance indicators and auditable values of the Program.
Resultativity indicators and
auditable values
Monographs
Defended PhD theses
Young researchers, PhD and MSc
students involved in the program
Scientific publications in
international and local sources
Reports to media
Presentations at conferences
Created new methods
Organized conferences and
seminars
Recommendations for elaboration
of the environmental legislation;
participation in the decision-making
process and implementation of
these decisions
Created original maps
Acquired and built laboratory
devices
Number
1
1
4
48
84
18
130
14
31
15
72
Annex 2
Published and submitted papers by the Program team.
Collection of Papers.
1. Climate change in Latvia (2008) (Ed. M.KĜaviĦš), Rīga :LU
2. M.KĜaviĦš, D.Blumberga, I.BruĦiniece, A.Briede, G.Grišule, A.Andrušaitis, K.ĀboliĦa
(2008) Klimata mainība un globālā sasilšana. (M.KĜaviĦa un A.Andrušaiša redakcija). LU
Akadēmiskais apgāds: Rīga, 174 lpp.
Text book
KĜaviĦš M., Blumberga D., BruĦiniece I., Briede, A., Grišule, G., Andrušaitis A., ĀboliĦa K.
(2008) Klimata mainība un globālā sasilšana. LU Akadēmiskais apgāds, 174 lpp.
Climate change in Latvia (2008) (Ed. M.KĜaviĦš), Rīga :LU
Scientific papers
1. Andrušaitis A., KĜaviĦš M. (2007) Vides zinātne: klimata maiĦas reăionālā ietekme uz
ūdeĦu ekosistēmām un adaptācija tai. Zinātne, pētniecība un inovācija Latvijas izaugsmei.
LR Stratēăiskās analīzes komisija 3(14), Rīga: Zinātne, 142-163
2. Bakute A., Apsīte E. (2009). Konceptuālā modeĜa METQ pielietošanas iespējas Latvijas
upju hidroloăiskajā monitoringā (Aplication of the METQ for Hydrological Monitoring of
Rivers in Latvia). Latvijas Universitātes raksti. Zemes un vides zinātnes (Acta Universitatis
Latviansis, Earth and Enviroment Sciences) Nr. 724., Rīga, pp 77-88.
3. Balode M., Purvina S., Purina I., Yurkovska V., Barda I., Strode E., Putna I.,
Balodis J., Pfeifere M. (iesniegts) Experimental studies on the possible impact of climate
change on development of Baltic HAB species. Proceedings of the 13th ISSHA,
November 2008.
4. Bethers U., SeĦĦikovs J. (2009). Ensemble modeling of impact of climate change on
runoff regime of Latvian rivers. Proc. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns,
Australia.
5. Bethers U., SeĦĦikovs J., Timuhins A., Valainis A., Bethers P. (2009). Ensemble
modeling of impact of climate change on runoff regime of Latvian rivers. J. of Stochastic
Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (submitted)
6. Blumberga D., KĜaviĦš M. (2009) Climate change education in Latvia. In: “Climate
change education”, Emerald Press, (accepted for publication)
7. Briede A,, L.Lizuma, M.Klavins (2009) Long term changes of precipitation in Latvia.
Hydrol. Res. (accepted for publication)
8. Briede A., Lizuma L.,Klavins M. (2009) Long term changes of precipitation in Latvia.
Hydrol. Res. (accepted for publication)
73
9. Bruniniece I., Klavins M. (2009) Normative principles for adaptation to climate change
policy design and governance Int. J. Clim. Change Strat. Manag., (accepted for publication)
10. Casini, M., Hjelm, J., Molinero, J.-C., Lövgren, J., Cardinale, M., Bartolino, V.,
Belgramo, A. and Kornilovs, G. (2009). Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts
in pelagic marine ecosystems. Proc. of the Nat. Ac. of Sci. of the USA, Vol. 106, No 1,
197-202.
11. Casini, M., Lövgren, J., Hjelm, J., Cardinale, M., Molinero, J.-C. and Kornilovs, G.
(2008). Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem. Proc.
of the Royal Society B, 275: 1793-1801.
12. Conley, D., Björck, S., Bonsdorff, E., Carstensen, J., Destouni, G., Gustafsson, B.G.,
Hietanen, S., Kortekaas, M., Kuosa, H., Markus Meier, H.E., Müller-Karulis, B.,
Nordberg, K., Norkko, A., Nürnberg, G., Pitkänen, H., Rabalais, N.N., Rosenberg, R.,
Savchuk, O.P., Slomp, C.P., Voss, M., Wulff, F., and Zillen, L. (2009) Hypoxia – related
processes in the Baltic Sea. Environmental Science & Technology. Vol. 43: 3412-3420.
13. Deelstra, J., Eggestad, H.O., Iital, A., Jansons, V. (2009). Extreme Runoff Conditions in
Small Agricultural Catchments. XII Biennal International Conference Hydrological
Extremes in Small Basins 18–20 September 2008, Cracow, Poland, Book of Abstracts.
Jagiellonian University Cracow, Poland. ISBN 978-83-88424-38-0. pp 93-96.
14. Deelstra, J., Eggestad, H.O., Iital, A., Jansons, V. (2009). Hydrology in small agricultural
catchments; pathways and their impact on nutrient and soil loss. In Hermann, A. &
Schumann, S. (Eds). International Workshop on Status and perspectives of Hydrology in
Small basins, Goslar – Hahnenklee, Federal Republic of Germany, 30 March – 2 April
2009: ISBN 978-3-89720-996-1, pp 75 – 79.
15. Druvietis, I., Springe, G., Briede, A., Kokorīte, I. & Parele E. 2009. A comparative
assessment of bog aquatic environment of Ramsar site Teici Bog Reserve and North
Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve, Latvia. LU raksti. PieĦemts publicēšanai.
16. Eberhards G., Grīne I., Lapinskis J., Purgalis I., Saltupe B., Torklere A. (2009)
Changes in Latvia’s Baltic seacoast (1935-2008). Baltica, Vol. 22 (1);
17. Grinberga, L. and Priede, A. Elodea canadensis in Latvia. Acta Biologica Universitatis
Daugavpiliensis. PieĦemta publicēšanai.
18. Gruberts D., 20081. Use of a Drifting Instrumental Platform In A River-Floodplain Study.
In: Sorial G. A., Hong J. (eds.) Proceedings of the 4th International Conference
“Environmental Science and Technology 2008”. Houston, Texas, USA, July 28-31 2008. v.
1, 39-46. ISBN 978-0976885306
19. Ikauniece A., J. Aigars, B. Kalveka, V. Jermakovs and I. Jurgensone (2009)
Ecosystem changes and possible management solutions in the Eastern Baltic Sea – effort
of Latvian KALME. ICES CM/G:13
20. Ikauniece A., J. Aigars, B. Kalveka, V. Jermakovs and I. Jurgensone. Marine
environmental processes and biodiversity variation in the light of climate change – case
of Latvia (iesniegts Boreal Environ.Res.).
21. Jaagus J, Briede, A., Rimkus, E., Kalle, R. (2009) Precipitation pattern in the Baltic
countries under the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape
factors. International Journal of Climatology (on line published)
74
22. Jansons, V., Abramenko, K., Timbare, R., BērziĦa, L. (2009). Risk assessment of the
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on phenological phases in Latvia and Lithuania. Clim Res 39:209-219.
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change in Latvia. Boreal Environmental Research (submitted)
28. Klavins, M., Briede, A., Rodinov, V. (2009) Changes in ice regime of rivers in the Baltic
region in relation to climate variability. Climate Change, Vol.95, Nr 3-4: 485-498.
29. Klavinš, M., Rodinov, V., Timukhin, A., Kokorite, I. (2008) Patterns of river discharge:
long-term changes in Latvia and Baltic region. Baltica, 22 (1-2), 25-39
30. Kokorite I., Klavins M., Rodinov V. Impact of catchment properties on aquatic chemistry
in rivers of Latvia. Water Research. PieĦemts publicēšanai 11.08.2009.
31. Lapinskis J. (2009) Jūras krasta rajonēšana Latvijā pēc litomorfodinamiskām pazīmēm.
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32. Möllmann, C., Diekmann, R., Müller-Karulis, B., Kornilovs, G., Plikshs, M. and Axe,
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anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. Global
Change Biology. 15: 1377-1393, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01814.x
33. Paidere, J. 2009. Influence of hydrology (flooding frequency) on zooplankton in the
floodplains of the Daugava River (Latvia). Acta Zoologica Lituanica, Versita, Warsaw (In
press).
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model results for hydrological modelling. Proc. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress,
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35. Skuja, A., OzoliĦš, D. and Poppels, A. (2009) Seasonal and diel pattern of mayfly
(Ephemeroptera) drift in Korge stream in Latvia. – In: International Perspectives in Mayfly
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Ephemeroptera and the 16th International Symposium on Plecoptera, Aquatic Insects 31,
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37. Springe G., Grinberga L. and Briede A. The role of the hydrological and
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38. Springe, G., Briede, A., Druvietis, I., Parele, E., Rodinovs, V., Skuja, A. Impacts of
climate change on shallow lagoon lake ecosystem. Hydrobiologia. Iesniegts publicēšanai.
39. Tomczak, M.T., Müller-Karulis, B., Järv, L., Kotta, J., Martin, G., Minde, A., Põllumäe,
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Prepared publications
1. Apsīte E., Bakute A. and Kurpniece K., Pallo I. Climate Change Impacts on River
Runoff at the End of the 21st Century in Latvia. FENNIA, NGM Special Issue (pieĦemta
publicēšanai)
2. Apsīte E., Bakute A. and Kurpniece K., Pallo I. River Runoff Projection of Future
Climate in Southeast of the Baltic Sea Basin. Climate Research, Special 23 /Enviromental
change and socio-economic response in the Baltic region/, (iesniegta publicēšanai)
3. Jansons, V., Sudars.R, (2009) Dimensions of Agri-Environmental Research in the
Department of Environmental Engineering and Water Management. PieĦemts
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Abstracts
1. Aksjuta K., Bāra J., Lazdāns D., Nitcis M., 2009. Nature management plans and
awareness raising for local people applying GIS tools. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.),
Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51.
starptautiskā zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis.
Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”, 44.lpp.
2. Aleksejevs, Ē. un Birzaks, J. (2008) SpidiĜėa Rhodeus amarus Bloch izplatība Latvijā.
LU 66. zinātniskā konference. Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi. Rakstu krājums, Rīga, LU: 5-6.
3. Balode M., PurviĦa S., PuriĦa I., Bārda I., Strode E., Putna I., Balodis J., Pfeifere
M., Jurkovska V. Globālās sasilšanas varbūtējā ietekme uz bīstamo aĜău attīstību
Baltijas jūrā. LU 67. konferences Rakstu krājums Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi, Februāris
2009, LU, Rīga.
4. Balode M.. Climate impact on HAB. Report of the ICES-IOC Working Group on
Harmful Algal Bloom Dynamics (WGHABD), 31th March- 2nd April.
5. Bārda I., PuriĦa I., PurviĦa S., Balode M.. Toksisko aĜău attīstība un mikrocistīnu
producēšana Pierīgas ezeros. LU 67. konferences Rakstu krājums Klimata mainība un
ūdeĦi, Februāris 2009, LU, Rīga.
6. BārdaI, Purina I., Balode M. Structural analyses of summer phytoplankton as indicator
of water quality in eutrophic – hypertrophic lakes. ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting
2009, 25-30 January, Nice, France.
7. Birzaks, J. Jauna zivju suga Sabanejewia aurata (De Filippi, 1865) Latvijā. LU
67.Zinātniskā konference, 20.02.2009.,,Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”. Rakstu krājums LU,
2009.
8. Brakovska A., Stepanova M., Škute R., Škute A., 2009. Diversity survey of samples of
Rotatoria group in lakes Svente and Brigene. Book of abstracts of 5th International
Conference "Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic Region”.
Daugavpils, Latvia. p.25.
9. Deksne R., Škute A., Škute R. 2009. Dynamics of zooplankton in Daugava through
seasons in the section of the river between Kraslava and Dunava. Book of abstracts of 5th
International Conference "Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic
Region”. Daugavpils, Latvia. p.32 - 33.
10. Deksne R., Škute A., Škute R. 2009. Klimata mainības ietekme uz Daugavas
zooplanktonu Latvijas un Baltkrievijas teritorijā. Latvijas Universitātes 67.zinātniskās
konferences tēzes. Sējums „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi” – Rīga, LU akad.apgāds, 2009.
55.-62.lpp.
11. Druvietis, I. (2009) Lagūnas tipa piejūras ezeru fitoplanktona īpatnības. LU
67.Zinātniskā konference, 20.02.2009.,,Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”. Rakstu krājums LU,
2009:63
12. Druvietis, I. Konošonoka, I., and Parele, E. (2009) Structure of periphyton
communities associated with substrate type in lower reaches of Salaca River, North
Vidzeme biosphere Reserve In: 5th International Conference “Research and conservation
77
of Biological diversity in Baltic region, Book of Abstracts, Daugavpils 22-24 April 2009:
.39.
13. Druvietis, I., Kokorīte, I., Poppels, A. and Skuja, A. (2009) Influences of water and
substrate quality for periphyton and invertebrate communities in small rivers of western
Latvia and Slītere National park”. In: 5th International Conference “Research and
conservation of Biological diversity in Baltic region”. Book of Abstracts, Daugavpils 2224 April 2009: 40.
14. Gårdmark, A. Wikström, A., Bastardi. F., Eero, A., Müller-Karulis, B., Heikinheimo,
O., Neuenfeldt, S., van Leeuwen, A., Lindegren, M., Tomczak, M., Niiranen, S.,
Blenckner. T. "Biological Ensemble Modelling of the Eastern Baltic cod future" at the
ICES/PICES/UNCOVER Symposium on Rebuilding Depleted Fish Stocks – Biology,
Ecology, Social Science and Management Strategies, Warnemünde, November 4th, 2009.
15. Gårdmark, A. Wikström, A., Bastardi. F., Eero, A., Müller-Karulis, B., Heikinheimo,
O., Neuenfeldt, S., van Leeuwen, A., Lindegren, M., Tomczak, M., Niiranen, S.,
Blenckner. T. "Biological Ensemble Modelling to improve fisheries science &
management" at the workshop on The marine ecosystem in changing climate - on the
added value of coupled climate-environmental modelling of the Baltic Sea, Swedish
Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, October 16th, 2009.
16. Gårdmark, A. Wikström, A., Bastardi. F., Eero, A., Müller-Karulis, B., Heikinheimo,
O., Neuenfeldt, S., van Leeuwen, A., Lindegren, M., Tomczak, M., Niiranen, S.,
Blenckner. T. "Ensemble modelling of the Baltic Cod Future" at the IBED Conference:
Linking Science and Management in the Baltic Sea Ecoregion, Copenhagen, September
10th 2009.
17. Grīnberga, L (2009) Makrofīti kā ūdens kvalitātes indikatori Salacā. LU 67.Zinātniskā
konference, 20.02.2009.,,Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi. Rakstu krājums LU, 2009: 65-67.
18. Grīnberga, L Including aquatic vegetation as bioindicators in educational process on
environmental studies. In: 3rd International conference, Environmental science and
education in Latvia and Europe: Education and science for climate change mitigation,
Conference proceedings, October 23 2009, Riga: 33-34
19. Grinberga, L. (2009) Environmental factors influencing the distribution of macrophytes
in middle-sized streams in Latvia. In: Reports of Finnish Environmetal Institute 15/2009:
154.
20. Grīnberga, L. and Priede, A. (2009) Invasion of Elodea canadensis in Latvia In: 5th
International Conference „Research and Conservation of Biological Diversity in Baltic
Region”, Daugavpils, 22-24.04.2009: Book of Abstracts, „Saule”, Daugavpils, 2009: 50.
21. Grinvalds K. Differences of benthic vegetation community at two coastal sites of the Gulf
of Riga. 7th BSSC, 17-21 August, Tallinn, Estonia.
22. Grišanovs A., Soms J., 2009. ĂIS risinājumi augsnes erozijas iespējamības novērtēšanai
dabas parkā „Daugavas loki”. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.), Daugavpils Universitātes 51.
starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā zinātniskā konference,
Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”,
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23. Gruberts D., 2009. Klimata un Daugavas noteces ilgtermiĦa mainība Daugavpilī. Krāj.:
Plikša I. (sast.) Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi. Latvijas Universitātes 67. zinātniskā
konference „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”. Rīga, Latvia, 2009.gada. 20. februāris. Rīga, LU
Akadēmiskais apgāds, 68.-75. lpp.
24. Gruberts D., Soms J., 2009. Runoff Extremes of the Daugava River at Daugavpils
(Latvia). In: Kovar P., Maca P., Redinova J. (eds), Water Policy 2009, Water as a
Vulnerable and Exhaustible Resource. Proceedings of the Joint Conference of APLU
(Association of Public and Land-Grant Universities) and ICA (Association for European
Life Sciences Universities). Prague, CULS Prague, Czech Republic, 23 – 26 June 2009.
p.180. ISBN 978-80-213-1944-8
25. Gruberts D., UĜjans J., 2009. Ūdens fizikāli ėīmisko parametru mainība Dvietes palienes
ūdens objektos 2007. - 2008. gadā. Krāj.: Ăeogrāfija. Ăeoloăija. Vides zinātne. Latvijas
Universitātes 67.zinātniskā konference. Rīga, 2009. g. 30. janvāris. Rīga, LU Akad.
apgāds, 49.-51. lpp.
26. Gruberts D., Zutis J., 2009. Upes micīte (Ancylus fluviatilis) kā ūdens vides stāvokĜa
bioindikators: AkmeĦupes piemērs. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.), Daugavpils
Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā
zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU
akad.apgāds „Saule”, 40. lpp.
27. Harlinska A., Strake S., Labucis A. Population structure and reproduction of the
copepod Acartia bifilosa in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea: field data. 7th BSSC, 17-21
August, Tallinn, Estonia.
28. Ikauniece A., J. Aigars, B. Kalveka, V. Jermakovs and I. Jurgensone. Marine
environmental processes and biodiversity variation in the light of climate change – results
of the Latvian National research programme. 7th Baltic Sea Science Congress, Tallinn,
17-21 August, 2009.
29. Ikauniece A., J. Aigars, B. Kalveka, V. Jermakovs and I. Jurgensone. Ecosystem
changes and possible management solutions in the Eastern Baltic Sea – effort of Latvian
KALME. ICES Annual Science Conference, Berlin, 21-25 September, 2009.
30. Iliško E., Soms J., 2009. Dabas vērtības Lazdukalna upītes ielejā un Daugavas ielejas
Ververu lokā. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.), Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās
zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils,
Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”, 8.lpp.
31. Jurkjāne I., Parele E., Škute A., 2009. Study of ecological conditions of the river
Daugava from Piedruja to Plavinas. Book of abstracts of 5th International Conference
"Research and conservation of biological diversity in Baltic Region”. Daugavpils, Latvia.
p.61.
32. Jurkjāne, I., Parele, E., Škute., A. (2009) A study of an ecological conditions of the
River Daugava from Piedruja to Plavinas. 5th International Conference “Research and
Conservation of Biological Diversity in Baltic Region”, Book of Abstracts, Daugavpils,
22 – 24 April 2009: 61.
33. Kokorite I., Konosonoka I., Druvietis I. (2009) Assessment of water quality and
ecological status of the Lake Burtnieks, North-Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve, Latvia. 2nd
European Large Lake Symposium 2009. Norrtälje, Sweden. 10.–14.08.2009.
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34. Kokorīte I., Rodinovs V. (2009) Ūdens kvalitātes mainība Daugavā. LU 67.zinātniskā
konference. 02.02.2009.
35. Kornilovs, G., Raid, T., and Stepputis, D. Do the regular reading exercises improve the
quality of assessment? The case of Baltic herring. ICES Annual Science Conference,
Berlin, 21-25 September, 2009.
36. Korsaka J., Osipovs S., 2009. Ortofosfātjonu satura noteikšana Daugavpils upēs
(Laucesa, MeĜĦička, GĜinovka, ŠuĦupe, Daugava), izmantojot spektrometrisko
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Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā
zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU
akad.apgāds „Saule”, 15.lpp.
37. Kursīts D., Soms J., 2009. Dabas pieminekĜi dabas parkā „Daugavas loki” ekotūrisma
attīstības un dabas aizsardzības pasākumu kontekstā. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.),
Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51.
starptautiskā zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis.
Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”, 43.lpp.
38. Laizāns K., Soms J., 2009. Noteces veidošanās apstākĜu ietekme uz biogēnu un
suspendētā materiāla pārneses apjomiem no gravu sateces baseiniem Daugavas ielejā.
Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.), Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās
konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija,
2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”, 19. lpp.
39. Lapinskis J. (2009) Coastal erosion risk in Latvia and climate change mitigation.
Environmental science and education in Latvia and Europe: Education and science for
climate shange mitigation. Riga, October 23, 2009. Proceedings pp. 55-57.
40. Lazdāns D., 2009. Conservation biology of specially protected nature territories using
GIS tools. In: Book of abstracts. 5th International Conference “Research and
Conservation of Biological Diversity in Baltic Region”. Daugavpils, Latvia, 22 – 24
April, 2009. Daugavpils University Acad. Press. “Saule”, p.81.
41. Lazdāns D., Mozulis J., 2009. Daugavpils pilsētas un Daugavpils rajona tūrisma iespēju
interaktīvā datu bāze. Krāj.: OĜehnovičs D. (sast.), Daugavpils Universitātes 51.
starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51. starptautiskā zinātniskā konference,
Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis. Daugavpils, DU akad.apgāds „Saule”,
41.lpp.
42. Lizuma L., A.Briede, M.KĜaviĦš : Ekstremālo nokrišĦu ilgtermiĦa mainības raksturs.
Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi. Rakstu krājums LU, 2009.
43. Lūkins M., Melluma A., Soms J., 2009. Ainavu struktūras laiktelpisko izmaiĦu analīze
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Ăeoloăija. Vides zinātne. Referātu tēžu krājums. Latvijas Universitātes 67.zinātniskā
konference. Rīga, 2009.g. 03.februāris. Rīga, LU Akad. apgāds, 93.-95.lpp.
44. Lūkins M., Soms J., Melluma A., 2009. Temporal and Spatial Changes of Forest Habitats
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Daugavpils, Latvia, 22 – 24 April, 2009. Daugavpils University Acad. Press. “Saule”,
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drift in Korăe stream. – In: 3rd International conference, Environmental science and
education in Latvia and Europe: Education and science for climate change mitigation,
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47. Paidere, J. Daugavas palieĦu ezeru applūšanas biežuma ietekme uz zooplanktona
cenozēm. 2009. Rakstu krājums. Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi. Latvijas Universitātes 67.
zinātniskā konference „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi”. Rīga, Latvia, 2009.gada. 20.
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48. Paidere, J., Čevere I., Stalidzāne D. 2009. Dvietes un Skuėu ezera zooplanktona
raksturojums. Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes.
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49. Paidere, J., Stalidzāne D., Čevere I. 2009. Taxonomical distribution and diversity of
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50. PupiĦa A., PupiĦš M., Škute A. 2009. Bombina bombina L. areāla paplašināšanās Latvijā
kā klimata pasiltināšanās iespējamās sekas. Latvijas Universitātes 67.zinātniskās
konferences tēzes. Sējums „Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi” – Rīga, LU akad.apgāds, 2009.
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51. PupiĦš M., PupiĦa A., Škute A. 2009. Klimata pasiltināšanās un iespējamās Emys
orbicularis L. pirmās ziemošanas sekmīgu stratēăiju skaita paplašināšanās Latvijā.
Latvijas Universitātes 67.zinātniskās konferences tēzes. Sējums „Klimata mainība un
ūdeĦi” – Rīga, LU akad.apgāds, 2009. 82.-83.lpp.
52. PurviĦa S., PuriĦa I., Bārda I., Strode E., Putna I., Jurkovska V., Balode M.
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bakterioplanktonu. LU 67. konferences Rakstu krājums Klimata mainība un ūdeĦi,
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53. PurviĦa S., Purina I., Barda I., Strode E., Putna I., Yurkovska V., Balode M. The
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54. Raid, T., Kornilovs, G., Lankov, A., Nisumaa, A.-M., Shpilev, H. and Järvik, A.
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ICES/PICES/UNCOVER Symposium on Rebuilding Depleted Fish Stocks – Biology,
Ecology, Social Science and Management Strategies, Warnemünde, November 4th, 2009.
55. Razdobudko J., Soms J., 2009. Meža biotopu laiktelpiskās izmaiĦas dabas parka
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Daugavpils Universitātes 51. starptautiskās zinātniskās konferences tēzes. DU 51.
starptautiskā zinātniskā konference, Daugavpils, Latvija, 2009.g. 15.-18. aprīlis.
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56. Rutkovska S., ZeiĜa I., Pučka I., Litvinceva J., 2009. Spatial distribution of separate
widely spread invasive plant species. A case of the RuăeĜi and Grīva housing estates of
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ielejā Krāslavas – Naujenes posmā kā vides izmaiĦu indikatori holocēnā. Krāj.:
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67.zinātniskā konference. Rīga, 2009.g. 30.janvāris. Rīga, LU Akad. apgāds, 246.248.lpp.
60. Soms J., Iliško E., 2009. Aizsargājamo biotopu un augu sugu atradĦu telpiskais
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67.zinātniskā konference. Rīga, 2009.g. 04.februāris. Rīga, LU Akad. apgāds, 56.-58.lpp.
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83
Annex 3
Program Performance Indicators
WP No. Workpackage results
DP1
Quantitative scenarios of the
climate change impacts
Performance indicator
Data series
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
1
Forecast of the influence of
Data series
climate change on rive runoff and
its seasonal and long-term
change
Model analysis
Publications
2
Regionally adapted drainage
Understanding of the
basin model (discharge, nutrient hydrological and nutrient
runoff)
cycles in surface waters.
9
Projection of the nutrient loading Mathematical model (method)
Publications
Regionally adapted 3D marine
state model
2
Data series
7
Understanding of the
interrelationships of marine
state parameters
15
1
Publications
3-5
Conferences
1
1
Mathematical model (method)
3D calculations of the Gulf of
Riga for 50-100 year periods
13
New knowledge about
influence of the CC on the
status, variability of seasonal
cycles and long-term
alternations in the marine and
inland waters..
0
Publications
3-5
2
Conferences
1
84
WP No. Workpackage results
WP2
Hydrological and hydrochemical
models of the river basins are
calibrated
CC impact on the discharge of
diffuse pollution into the Rivers of
Latvia is estimated
WP3
Projections of the impact of CC on
the ecosystems of the inland
waters. Advice for adaptation to
CC in the protected areas.
Performance indicator
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Creation of the long-term data series for
hydrochemical modelling is commenced.
Models calibrated for the conditions of
Latvia are usable for management of the
water bodies and forecast of the CC
influences.
Scientific publications
2
3
Recommendations to LV Geology
Meteorology and Environment Agency
Understanding of the character of changes
and amount of the diffuse pollution.
2
1
Scientific publications
1
1
Scientific publications
3
47
Recommendations to Ministry of
Environment
Elaboration of the biological indicators of
CC
1
3
1
15
2
4
1
1
2
7
Understanding of the character of CC
impact on the aquatic ecosystems and
solutions on mitigation of the adverse
effects
Assessment of change in species
diversity in relation to the CC.
Selection of the indicator species for
Scientific publications
characterization of the
environmental quality.
Recommendations for water protection
legislation, assessment of water quality and
protection.
Assessment of CC influence on the Preparation of the LV national report to
fish communities of river Salaca
ICES WGBAST
(populations of wild salmon and
other migratory fishes), CC induced Scientific publications
changes in fisheries.
Recommendations for water protection
legislation, assessment of water quality and
protection
85
40
WP No. Workpackage results
Performance indicator
Research publications.
WP4
Scenarios of the potential changes in
Latvian coastal strip, and assessment
of the risk of the economic activity,
culture/history and other objects
located there in the near future (till
2050)
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
2
5
Assessment of the coastal
processes and identification of the
most endangered significant
objects and areas.
Recommendations to the
government and municipal
authorities.
1
2
Research publications.
2
5
Digital maps of the contemporary
processes of the coasts of Latvia:
Visualization of the coastal
processes and risks.
a)projection maps for the cases of
extreme storms;
Cartographic material
4
13
b)map of main erosion risk zones;
Recommendations
1
1
1
1
1
1
c)map of the contemporary coastal
geological processes;
d)map of the protected nature area
in the coastal strip;
e)map of the significant objects in
the coastal erosion risk zone.
Recommendations for the purposes
of coastal planning, territorial
planning of municipalities,
management activities and
protection.
Development of dialogue with
governmental and municipal
authorities.
Proposals for the national
planning.
Proposals for development of the
environmental monitoring
program.
86
WP No. Workpackage results
DP5
New information on influence of the
regime-forming parameters on the
biogeochemical processes in the
Gulf of Riga.
Projections of the environmental
quality and productivity of the Gulf
of Riga till 2100 for each of the
selected CC scenarios.
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Scientific publications.
2
10
Data sets to be assimilated into
the model
1
1
A model of the Gulf of Riga
allowing to forecast evolution of
the nutrient system at various CC
scenarios with appropriate level
of confidence.
2
2
Scientific publications about the
model and forecasting results.
1
2
Performance indicator
In-depth understanding of the
impact of the physical parameters
on sedimentation and processes in
the water – sediment interphase,
usable for parametrizing and
calibration of the biogeochemical
model.
Set of the prognostic data about
oxygen and nutrient regime (input
data for WP 6).
Environmental values causing
critical changes in the quality of
marine environment identified.
Proposals for determination of the
critical values of environmental
indicators in the Latvian
territorial water s and EEZ,
necessary for implementation of
the WFD and European Marine
Strategy Directive (report).
1
1
Science –based proposals to
stabilize and mitigate
eutrophication of the coastal
waters in the context of CC,
based on the outputs of WP6,.
Report on the relationships
between coastal eutrophication
and CC in the Baltic Sea.
1
1
Scientific publication.
1
1
87
WP No. Workpackage results
DP6
Performance indicator
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Projection of the influence of CC In-depth understanding on the
on the ecosystems and biological possible character, scale and
diversity off the coasts of Latvia. pace of ecosystem changes.
Array of facts and knowledge
necessary for participation of
Latvia in the implementation
of the HELCOM BSAP and
formulation of the national
plan as required by the BSAP,
and
Elaboration and
implementation of the
European Marine Strategy
Directive.
Prognostic model of fish growth,
dynamics of fish stock, and
structure of the fish community
depending on development
scenarios of the climatic and
antropogenic impacts. Projection
of the fish stocks and year-class
fecundity in 5, 10 and 30-year
periods.
Scientific publications
2
2
Calibrated prognostic model.
1
1
Prognostic data series on
dynamics of fish stocks and
yields within the nearest 30
years.
1
1
Information and knowledge
basis necessary to create and
implement a sustainable
management policy of the
living marine resources.
1
1
Scientific publications
2
2
Integrated assessment of the
Proposals for implementation
impact of CC in territorial waters of the WFD (Latvian coastal
and EEZ of Latvia.
and transitional waters),
European Marine Strategy
Directive and HELCOM
BSAP (Reports).
Proposals for protection of the
marine biological diversity off
the coasts of Latvia.
88
WP No. Workpackage results
WP7
Performance indicator
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Analysis of the reflection of
Analysis of the existing
adaptation to CC in the
adaptation policy to CC
documents of the environmental
Assessment of the priority
and other policies.
research direction of the
program.
Scientific publications.
1
3
Proposals for adjustment of the
program contents
1
2
3
12
Elaboration of proposals for the Proposals during elaboration
national development planning, of the policy documents.
environmental policy, and sector
policy documents to mitigate the
possible adverse effect of CC on
the water environment based on
the scientific findings.
DP9
Planned
number
Facilitating of the
communication and establishing
of dialogue between the research
community and the authorities
involved in the development
planning and decision making, as
well as the key representatives of
the private sector. Information of
the society about implementation
of the Program and its findings.
Initiation of the dialogue.
Data on the re-occurrence and
intensity of the past runoff
extremes.
Data series.
1
1
Scientific publications
1
1
Prognostic hydrological data
Data series
series, modelling of the flood and
Mathematical model
drought character.
Scientific publications
1
1
1
1
2
1
Digital terrain model of the
Naujeine – Jekabpils stretch of
the Daugava valley.
Data series
1
1
ĂIS database
1
1
Scientific publications
1
1
A practical handbook an
adaptation to the CC in the
environmental and other
policies.
Handbook
2000 ex.
10.12.2009.
Conferences and seminars.
3
3(+1)
1(+1)
89
WP No. Workpackage results
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Data series
1
1
Mathematical model
1
1
Scientific publications
3
4
Conferences
2
21
Transport of the nutrients and the
suspended material from the
upper parts of the hydrographical
network to recipient water-flows
and basins assessed.
Scientific publications
Recommendations to the
Ministry of Regional
Development and Local
Governments, Ministry of the
Environment and Ministry of
Agriculture.
2
3
3
2
Understanding of the broad
society about CC and the
associated risks investigated
within a sociologic survey.
Recommendations to the
Ministry of Regional
Development and Local
Governments
1
1
Scientific publications
1
-
Recommendations to the
municipal governments of
Daugavpils and Jēkabpils
regions.
2
2
13
11
According
with the
financers’
requirements
At least 4
3
Ecosystem changes in the
floodplain lakes of the Daugava
mid-flow assessed.
Recommendations to the
agricultural, forestry and
territorial planning sectors on
mitigating of the flood and
draught risks.
8DP
Performance indicator
Effective governance of the
Meetings of the WP
program and coordination of the Coordinators
collaboration of WPs.
Technical reports on progress
in implementation of the
Program
CC research in Latvia is
Meeting reports of the
conducted in a high scientific
International Advisory Board
quality. This is supported by an
effective work of the
international External Advisory
Board and international relations
of the Program.
90
WP No. Workpackage results
Fair and transparent distribution
of finances amongst the WPs of
the Program facilitates effective
use of the allocated funds.
Timely prepared and good
quality reports prepared in
accordance with the requirements
of the financier.
Planned
number
Accomplish
ed till
16.11.2009
Carefully prepared budget
requests for each of the years
(phases) of the Program.
4
4
Directions to the financier
concerning the distribution of
funds among the research
institutes and universities
participating in the Program.
4
4
Precise and timely submitted
financial reports.
In
accordance
with the
financier’s
schedule
1
1
1 (500-1000
ex.)
2x500- ex.
Performance indicator
Effective strategy of information Created and systematically
of the broad public about the
updated Program website.
impact of CC on the environment
Information leaflet on the
of the Baltic Region.
Program in two languages
Program has good visibility.
Popular summary of the
Program results.
1 (500-1000
eks.)
Series of popular publications
about various findings of the
Program.
Reports in media about the
potential CC impact on waters
of the Baltic Region and
Latvia and the necessary
adaptation activities.
As a result of the aquatic
environmental research school
initiated by the Program,
development of the new
researchers and quality of their
work has increased considerably.
Number of SCI papers and
defended PhD dissertations
significantly increased. PhD
courses on the topics of aquatic
research take place regularly.
Papers in the internationally
quoted scientific journals, % of
the total number of publications.
At least
50%
30%
PhD defences on the topics of
the Program
At least 15
6(5 more
prepared)
Annual Program conferences
as a part of the Scientific
conference of UL.
3
3+1 intl.
conference
International PhD courses
3
1
91
Annex 4
Time schedule of the Program tasks
WP
No.
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP6
Year 1
Task
I
II
III
Year 2
IV
I
II
1a Elaboration of
scenarios
1b Drainage basin
modelling
1c Marine 3D model
1d Data series
2a Modelling data
bases
2b Retention
processes
2c Model analysis
2dInfluences on
water resources
2e Changes in
pollution
3a Climate biodiversity
3b Fluxes-climate –
biota
3c Indicators of the
climate change
4a History of coastal
processes
4b Projection of
coastal processes
4c Risk mapping
4d Actions for
adaptation
5a Boundary layer
processes
5b Production and
sedimentation
5c Marine model
5d Marine quality
and productivity
5e Advice on
adaptation
6a Structure and
dynamics of
communities
6b Fish community
model
6c Projection of
fisheries resources
6d Advice to fisheries
III
Year 3
IV
I
II
III
Year 4
IV
I
II
III
IV
1A
1B
1C
1D
2A
2A
2B
2B
2C
2D
2D
2E
3A
3A
3B
3C
4A
4B
4B
4B
4B
5A
5B
5B
5C
5D
5D
5F
5G
6A
6B
6C
6F
92
WP7
WP8
DP9
6e Advice to marine
environmental
protection
7a. Adaptation policy
7b. Implementation
7c. Dialogue
8a.Management and
coordination
8b. Distribution of
funds
8c. Public
information
8d. External
Advisory Board
8.e. Research school
7A
7B
8A
8B
8B
8C
8C
8C
8F
8E
8B
8B
8B
7B
8B
8C
8B
8B
8B
8C
8I
8B
8C
8B
8B
8B
8C
8C
8G
8G
8G
8I
8I
8I
8J
8J
9a Runoff and
climate
9b Flood modelling
8J
9A
9B
9c Role of floodplains
9d Lake ecosystems
9e Material fluxes
9C
9C
9D
9E
9f Recommendations
-
6G
6H
6D
9F
Delayed activities and outputs
A1 – 9G denotes the expected deliverables of the WPs.
93
9F
9G
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