CAD/CAM Industry Service Markets and Analysis Dataoyest Sa

CAD/CAM Industry Service Markets and Analysis Dataoyest Sa
CAD/CAM Industry Service
Markets and Analysis
Dataoyest
aoMnpanyol
' DunW^
1290 Ridder Park Drive
San Jose, CaUfomia 95131
(408) 971-9000
Telra: 171973
Fax: (408) 971-9003
Sales/Service offices:
UNITED KINGDOM
DATAQUEST UK Limited
144/146 New Bond Street
London WIY 9FD
United Kingdom
(01) 409-1427
Telex: 266195
Fax: (01) 491-2790
GERMANY
DATAQUEST GmbH
Rosenkavalierplatz 17
D-8000 Munich 81
West Germany
(089) 91-1064
Telex: 5218070
Fax: (089) 91-2189
FRANCE
DATAQUEST SARL
41, rue Ybry
92522 Neuilly-sur-Seine Cedex
France
(1)47.58.12.40
Telex: 630842
Fax: (01)46.40.11.23
JAPAN
DATAQUEST Japan, Ltd.
Tkiyo Ginza Building
7-14-16 Ginza, Chuo-ku
Tokyo 104, Japan
(03) 546-3191
Telex: J32768
Fax: (03) 546-3198
The content of this report represents our interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible individuals in
the subject companies, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. It
does not contain material provided to us in confidence by our clients.
This information is not furnished in connection with a sale or offer to sell
securities, or in connection with the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This
firm and its parent and/or their officers, stockholders, or members of their families
may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the securities mentioned
and may sell or buy such securities.
Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this
publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted, in any
form or by any means—mechanical, electronic, photocopying, duplicating,
microfilming, videotape, or otherwise—without the prior written permission of
the publisher.
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated
Also © 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985 Dataquest Incorporated
Introduction to the Service
DEFINITION OF THE SERVICE
The C/UD/CAM Industry Service (CCIS) is a comprehensive, worldwide
information service that documents and analyzes many important aspects of the
CAD/C/^M industry. The service consists of:
•
A set of four loose-leaf notebooks containing sections on companies,
products, trends, and forecasts, which are revised and updated as
developments occur or additional information becomes available
•
Corporate profiles on major participants in the CAD/CAM industry
•
Newsletters that analyze significant industry events and analyze CAD/CAM
survey data
•
Inquiry services that provide direct access to the research staff for
answering questions and providing backup information
•
An annual conference with industry leaders to discuss developments of
current interest and importance to tlie CAD/CAM industry
The CAD/CAM Industry Service analyzes and reports on the products, markets,
and major companies in the CAD/CAM industry and assesses the effects of product
developments, new competitors, and other changes in the market. To answer
questions on the industry, we provide:
•
Comprehensive information on markets, products,
applications, and companies in the CAD/CAM industry
technologies,
•
Quantitative data on shipments, installed bases, forecasts,
segmentation, and company performance
•
Qualitative insights on technology trends, new product and market
developments, company and marketing strategies, product positioning, and
competitive postures
market
NEED FOR THE SERVICE
As the CAD/CAM industry continues to grow at rates exceeding 20 percent
compounded annually, the decision-making process of CAD/CAM professionals
becomes increasingly complex. Dataquest's CAD/CAM Industry Service is a
resource of industry experts, providing all levels of personnel at our client
companies with information and analyses on the CAD/CAM industry so that
decisions can be made in an informed and timely manner.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-1
Introduction to the Service
Industry data are gathered from a wide variety of sources providing both
general and specific information. The benefits to our clients include:
•
A single-source resource for decision-making support in strategic planning,
product marketing, and product management
•
An objective, broad coverage of interrelated markets
•
An external management information source
•
A dynamic, ongoing, and long-term relationship
•
A decision support tool for market and strategic planning information
needs and problems
INFORMATION STRUCTURE
The information available to CAD/CAM Industry Service clients is structured to
provide data and analysis that is easily accessible and meaningful to a broad range
of industry participants and analysts. Figure 1 graphically illustrates the structure
of the CAD/CAM Industry Service data base and reporting structure.
Channel Type
Channel type, the first tier of the data base model, identifies how CAD/CAM
systems reach the end user. This segment helps to distinguish the various
distribution channels and marketing arrangements used when selling CAD/CAM
systems.
Direct
Direct channels refer to the sale of CAD/CAM equipment directly to the
end-user. This represents the sale of complete systems sold by turnkey vendors or
components of a system sold by individual suppliers.
Indirect
Indirect channels identify the sale of CAD/CAM equipment through
independent dealers and distributors. This channel is typically used for sales of
personal computer-based CAD/CAM systems. Examples of indirect C/UI>/CAM
suppliers include Businessland and ComputerLand.
Intro-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
m
Introduction to the Service
Figure 1
Dataquest CAD/CAM Data Base Structure
Indirect
Direct
Channel
Non-Turnkey
Turnl^ey
Components
Applications
Computers
Mechanical
Graphic
Terminals
AEC
Mapping
Far East
Systems
Architecture
Price
Rest
of
W^orld
North
America
UK F n o n
Personal
Computer
Less Than
$20k
sc BE oe JA KOTA
SO MKCM
Host-Dependent
Standalone
$20k-$50k
PCS
IC
EDA
Europe
Regions
Service
Software
Peripherals
$51k-80k
>$BOk
Source:
Dataquest
July 1986
Turnkey
The turnkey channel identifies the sale of a complete CAD/CAM system,
including computers, graphic workstations, operating systems, applications
software, and any applicable peripherals. A turnkey sale also typically provides full
system support, including system maintenance, product training, and software or
applications support. Turnkey vendors essentially act as systems integrators by
integrating the various components into a complete system. Examples of turnkey
CAD/CAM vendors include Computervision, Daisy Systems, IBM, Intergraph,
Mentor, and Prime Computer.
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-3
Introduction to the Service
Nonturnkey
Nonturnkey channels allow the user to pick and choose each of the individual
system components (e.g., computers, software, etc.) and perform the system
integration task to assemble a complete C/UD/CAM system. Examples of vendors
who sell components directly to end users include software vendors such as PDA
Engineering, MacNeal-Schwendler, Manufacturing and Consulting Services,
Silvar-Lisco, and Futurenet. Examples of nonturnkey hardware vendors include
Digital Equipment, Data General, and IBM.
Components
The components information tier deals with tracking the sale of five major
subsystems of a CAD/CAM system, including computers, graphics terminals,
peripherals, software, and service.
Computers
This area identifies the unit and dollar volume of computer sales in the
CAD/C/^M industry.
Graphic Terminals
This area identifies the unit and dollar volume of graphics terminal sales in the
CADICAM industry.
Peripherals
This area identifies the dollar volume of peripheral sales such as plotters and
printers in the CAD/C/^M industry.
SiffhAfore
This area identifies the dollar volume of software sales in the CAD/CAM
industry.
Service
This area identifies the dollar volume of hardware, software, and support
service sales in the C/UD/CAM industry.
Intro-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
Application Type
The application segment comprises six major applications of CAD/C/yvI
systems. This application breakdown aids in understanding the market dynamics of
CAD/CAM systems by functional usage.
Mechanical
The mechanical CAD/CAM segment is the application of computer-aided tools
for designing, analyzing, and manufacturing discrete parts, components, and
assemblies. The framework in which we analyze the mechanical CAD segment
includes the following major functions and their associated tasks:
•
•
Design modeling
—
Geometry creation
—
Three-D wireframe
—
Surface modeling
—
Solids modeling
Detail drafting
—
•
•
Drawing annotation
Analysis
—
Finite element modeling and analysis
—
Kinematics
—
Mass properties
—
Interference checking/tolerance stackup
Manufacturing
—
Numerical control tool path generation
—
Flat pattern
—
Nesting
—
Bills of material
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-5
Introduction to the Service
AEC
The architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) CAD/CAM segment
involves the use of computer-aided tools by architects, contractors, plant engineers,
civil engineers, and others associated with A£X2 disciplines. AEC CAD/C/^M
systems are generally used to aid in designing buildings, power plants, process
plants, ships, and other types of nondiscrete entities. Major computer-aided
applications found in the AEC market include:
•
/^chitectural/structural design and drafting
•
Piping layout, design, and analysis
•
Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC)
•
Facilities management
Mapping
Mapping CADICA^ applications allow civil engineers, utilities engineers,
geophysicists, and geologists to graphically represent data used in the creation of
maps. Applications include:
•
Exploration mapping
•
Utilities mapping
•
Cadastral mapping
•
Coordinate geometry conversion (COGO)
•
Contour mapping
•
Geophysical mapping
EDA
The electronic design automation (EDA) CADICAM. segment refers to products
that are typically used in the engineering or design phase of electronic products (as
opposed to the physical layout of the product). EDA systems are used most often by
electrical engineers (EEs).
The output of an EDA system is a netlist, which is a logical or functional
description of an electronic circuit, a printed circuit board, a system, or a product.
The output is then used in another phase of the electronic product design cycle to
manually or automatically create the physical layout.
Intro-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
EDA systems may include the following functional items:
•
Schematic capture
•
Logic simulation
•
Circuit simulation
•
Timing verification
•
Fault simulation
•
Test pattern generation
•
Thermal analysis
•
Netlist extraction (NLE)
•
Engineering documentation
•
Interfaces to external CAD/EDA tools
IC
The integrated circuit (IC) CAD/C/y^ market segment consists of products that
are used to create the geometrical descriptions of an integrated circuit. The output
of an IC CAD system is data that are to be read, or are to be formatted to be read
by, a pattern generation device. By definition, an IC CAD system's output is pattern
generation data.
The scope of the IC CAD segment typically includes the following types of
functional items and design methodologies:
•
Geometry creation and editing
•
Layout verification, including:
—
Design rule checking
—
Electrical rule checking
—
Netlist comparison
•
/^ray place and route
•
Cell place and route
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-7
Introduction to the Service
•
Silicon compilation
•
PLA compiler
•
Symbolic layout
•
Spacing and compaction
PCB
The printed circuit board (PCB) applications segment refers to the end product
being designed—printed circuit boards. PCB CAD systems are typically used by
PCB drafters to create the layout of the traces and components to be placed on the
board.
The output of a PCB system is the graphical description of the board's layout
and is used in various manufacturing steps. Output typically consists of the
following:
•
Photoplotter tape
•
Silk screens
•
Insertion drawings
•
Numerical control drill tapes
Region
The geographic segment of the CAD/CAM Industry Service data base defines
four regions into which CAD/CAM systems are sold. This segmentation aids in
understanding the geographic characteristics of the areas where C/UDfC/^M systems
are sold and delivered.
North America
The North /American segment includes sales of CAD/CAM systems in the
United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Europe
Europe includes the sale of CAD/CAM systems into the following countries and
European areas:
•
Benelux countries
•
United Kingdom
•
France
•
West Germany
Intro-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
•
Italy
•
•
Scandinavian countries
Rest of Europe
Far East
The Far Eastern region includes the sale of CAD/CAM systems into the
following countries:
•
Hong Kong
•
People's Republic of China (PRO)
•
Japan
•
Singapore
•
Korea
•
Taiwan
Rest of World
The Rest of World segment includes the sale of CAD/CAM systems from
territories not included in either the North American, European, or Far Eastern
regions.
Product Type
Product type segmentation identifies three major workstation architectures
being delivered into the CAD/C/^M market. This segmentation aids in
understanding the trends related to the types of systems being purchased.
The three types of products are personal computers, standalone workstations,
and host-dependent workstations. The major distinction among these product types
is that personal computers and standalone workstations contain their own CPUs and
operating systems and, therefore, are classified as being fully distributed systems.
Host-dependent systems, however, are considered shared-logic systems because
their CPUs and operating systems are utilized as shared resources. For counting
purposes, Dataquest treats personal computers and standalone workstations as both
system units and workstation units.
Personal Computers
A personal computer-based workstation is defined as having the following
characteristics:
•
Local 8/16-bit central processing unit
•
Nonvirtual operating system
•
Single processing capability
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-9
Introduction to the Service
Examples of personal computer-based workstations are the IBM PC AT and the
Apple Macintosh.
Standalone Workstations
A Standalone workstation is defined as having the following characteristics:
•
Resident operating system
•
Virtual operating system
•
Multitasking
•
Networked communications support
•
Integrated graphics
Examples of standalone-based workstations are Apollo's DN 660, Sun's 2/120,
Intergraph's Interpro 32, and Daisy's Logician.
Host-Dependent Workstations
A host-dependent workstation is defined as having the following characteristics:
•
External central processing unit
•
No local Operating system
•
Conditioned environment requirements
Examples of host-dependent products are Digital's VAX 11/780, IBM's 4361,
and Computervision's CDS 4000.
Pricing
The pricing segment identifies three major price categories of CAD/CAM
products. The price categories include the cost of the computer, workstation,
associated peripherals, hardware, software, and service amortized over the number
of workstations per CPU, yielding an average cost per "seat," or access to the CAD
system. The three categories are:
•
Average workstation price of less than $20,000
•
Average workstation price greater than $20,000 but less than $50,000
•
Average workstation price greater than $50,000 but less than $80,000
Intro-10
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
•
Average workstation price greater than $80,000
COMPANIES
Dataquest has expanded the number of companies included in our
forecast model. The model consists of two groups of companies: those
listed individually and those consolidated into "Other."
The following companies are listed individually:
Applicon
Holguin
Auto-trol
IBM
Autodesk
Intergraph
Cadnetix
Matra Datavision
Calay
McAuto
Calcomp
MacNeal-Schwendler
Calma
Mentor Graphics
Cimlinc
Prime Computer
Computervision
Racal-Redac
Control Data
Scientific Calculation
Daisy Systems
SDRC
Ferranti
Silvar-Lisco
Futurenet
Synercom
Gerber Scientific
Telesis
Gerber Systems Technology
Tektronix
Graftek
Valid Logic
Hewlett-Packard
Zycad
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-11
Introduction to the Service
HOW TO USE THE SERVICE
Due to the vast amount and dynamic nature of information that is
disseminated, the Dataquest CAD/CAM Industry Service offers four means of
access to our research:
•
Research notebooks
•
Newsletters
•
Inquiry service
•
Annual conference
Research Notebooks
The four CCIS research notebooks contain the core of the CAD/CAM Industry
Service research.
•
•
The Markets and Analysis notebook contains the following information:
—
CAD/CAM industry overview with projections and trends
—
In-depth market analysis by application, geographical region, and
product type
The Forecast Data Base notebook contains the following information:
—
Industry forecasts from 1981 through 1990
—
Market share estimates from 1981 through 1985
—
Historical company data from 1981 through 1985
•
The Newsletters notebook is an archive for the CAD/CAM Industry Service
Research Newsletters.
•
The Corporate Profile notebook contains information on the major
CAD/CAWL vendors.
Newsletters
CCIS Research Newsletters contain information that is either industry event
oriented (e.g., major product announcements) or based on a Dataquest primary
research effort (e.g., end-user survey). The Dataquest CAD/CAM Industry Service
typically publishes two to five newsletters per month. /UI copies of the newsletters
are found in the Newsletters notebook.
Intro-12
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
Inquiry Service
The inquiry service allows a client to directly access any of the CCIS research
staff for up-to-the-minute information and analysis via telephone, telex, facsimile,
or visits. This also allows a client to obtain information on a specific question or
topic not found in the printed publications. To support this direct-line access,
Dataquest has a highly professional research staff with an in-depth background in
the CAD/CAM industry. To contact the staff, please write, call, telex, FAX, or visit
the following address:
Dataquest Incorporated
1290 Ridder Park Drive
San Jose, California 95131
Telephone: (408) 971-9000 Telex: 171973
FAX: (408) 971-9003
Annual Conference
The annual CCIS conference is a two-day, in-depth conference held in the
calendar second quarter at a resort location. The purpose of the conference is to
provide a forum for the Dataquest research staff and other industry experts to share
their thoughts and ideas on the CAD/CAM industry. One of the key elements of the
conference is the presentation of Dataquest's current market numbers and market
shares along with our projections for ttie next five years. All of the presentations
are included in a large loose-leaf binder and distributed at the conference.
Dataquest's CAD/CAM Industry Service clients are entitled to one free
reservation at the conference. Additional employees from client companies can
attend at reduced rates.
FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
Dataquest's CAD/CAM Industry Service market estimates and forecasts are
derived using one or more of the following techniques:
•
"Bottom up" or component aggregation. This method involves adding all
relevant vendor contributions to arrive at total market estimates for all
historical data.
•
Segment forecasting. This method involves creating individual forecasts for
each application segment, including regional and product type distribution.
In this way, each application segment incorporates its own set of unique
assumptions.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-13
Introduction to the Service
•
Demand-based analysis. This method involves tracking and forecasting
market growth based on the present and anticipated demand of current and
future users. This requires the development of a total available market
(T/^VI) figure and a satisfied available market figure to accurately assess
the levels of penetration.
•
Capacity-based analysis. This method involves identifying future shipment
volume constraints. These constraints, or "ceilings," can be the result of
component availability, manufacturing capacity, or distribution capacity. In
any case, a constraint in one of these areas is capable of keeping actual
shipments below the demand level.
Dataquest's revenue and shipment estimates are based on the following
sources:
•
Information supplied by company management or gathered from publicly
available published sources
•
Information supplied by other Dataquest industry services relating to
components/subsystems of C/\D/CAM systems
•
Information provided by OEMs or resellers of the manufacturers' products
•
Large-scale end-user surveys
•
Senior staff estimates based on reliable historical data
The C/UD/CAM Industry Service data are based on revenue and unit data of
systems sold to end users. Great care is taken with our actual unit and revenue
numbers to avoid double counting.
Despite the care taken in analyzing the available data and attempting to
categorize it in a meaningful way, we offer a few caveats regarding interpretation of
the data:
•
Certain assumptions, definitions, or conventions implicit in our forecasts
may differ from those of others. Please refer to our definition of
forecasting terms and analysis and interpretation of the data in the Markets
and Analysis binder in order to understand our definitions.
•
Our shipment estimates of systems and workstations include only those
delivered to paying customers, not the total that is manufactured (the
backlog).
•
Revenue and average selling price estimates are based on transaction
prices, not list prices.
Intro-14
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
•
All data elements have been adjusted to reflect the forecast period, which
is the calendar year.
•
Many manufacturers do not release their actual unit sales, application
distribution, geographic distribution, or product type distribution. In order
to provide our clients with the most accurate forecasts, we have given
careful consideration to estimating these companies' data.
•
Prior to 1983, Dataquest did not geographically segment revenue other than
into U.S. and non-U.S. markets. To accommodate the expanded geographic
segmentation, we added all non-U.S. data into the Rest of the World
segment for 1981 and 1982.
•
Prior to 1983, Dataquest did not differentiate products based on hardware
type. To accommodate our expanded product type segmentation, we have
grouped all product types prior to 1983 into the host-dependent category.
Although not all systems shipped prior to 1983 were of the host-dependent
variety, the vast majority were.
DEFINITIONS OF FORECASTING TERMS
•
Add-On Peripheral Revenue: The portion of add-on revenue that is
associated with peripherals (Peripherals include all hardware except the
CPU itself and the workstations.)
•
Add-On Revenue: Revenue derived from add-ons and upgrades to systems
that have been previously installed (Add-on revenue is the sum of add-on
workstation revenue, add-on software revenue, and add-on peripherals
revenue. By definition, add-on revenue differs from repeat business
because it concerns revenue at the system level rather than the
buying-company level.)
•
Add-On Software Revenue: The portion of add-on business that is
associated with software (Add-on software revenue may come from both
turnkey companies and software-only companies.)
•
Add-on Workstations Shipped: The total unit number of workstations
shipped for use on previously installed host-dependent systems
•
Average System Selling Price: The price a buyer pays for a CAD/C/yvi
system, workstation, and all of the systems peripherals and software (In the
case of standalone and personal computer-based workstations, there is a
1:1 ratio between the price of the system and the price of the workstation.)
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-15
Introduction to the Service
•
Average Workstation Selling Price: The price a buyer pays for a
workstation or a CAD/CAM seat (In the case of host-dependent systems,
the system price takes into account the average workstation price and the
average number of workstations per system. In the case of a standalone
and personal computer-based workstation, there is a 1:1 ratio between the
price of the system and the price of the workstation.
•
Bundled Software Revenue: The value of a turnkey system that is
associated with application-related software
•
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): The compound annual growth
rate determines the average compound rate of growth over a specified
period (The formula used to calculate CAGR is ((future value/present
value) raised to the power of (1/number of years)) — 1.)
•
CPU Revenue: The portion of revenue derived from a system sale that is
related to the value of the CPU (In the case of standalone and personal
computer-based workstations, CPU revenue and new workstation revenue
are equal.)
•
Increase over Prior Year: Total revenue percent change over the prior
year's total revenue (The formula used for this calculation is (present year
revenue minus previous year revenue) divided by previous year revenue.)
•
New Peripherals Revenue: The value of all peripherals of a new system sale
(Peripherals include all hardware except the CPU itself and any associated
workstations.)
•
New Workstations Shipped: The total number of workstations shipped as
parts of new systems (In the case of standalone and personal
computer-based workstations, there is a 1:1 ratio of system shipments and
workstation shipments.)
•
Service Revenue: Revenue derived from the service and support of
CAD/CAM systems (Service revenue does not include revenue from the
portions of a company's business related to service bureaus or product
designs.)
•
System: Comprises many parts, including the computer, operating system,
peripherals, graphics devices, and application software (The lowest
common denominator of a system is that it contains the CPU that runs the
operating system. By this definition, standalone and personal
computer-based workstations are also counted as systems.)
•
System Revenue: Revenue derived from system sales (System revenue does
not include service revenue or add-on/upgrade revenue. System revenue is
the sum of CPU revenue, new workstation revenue, bundled software
revenue, and new peripherals revenue.)
Intro-16
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
Introduction to the Service
•
Systems Shipped: The unit number of systems shipped (In the case of
standalone and personal computers, there is a 1:1 ratio of systems shipped
and workstations shipped.)
•
Total Peripherals Revenue: The sum of new peripherals revenue and
add-on peripherals revenue
•
Total Revenue: Total CAD/CAM-related
U.S. dollars (It is the sum of system
add-on/upgrade revenue. Total revenue
revenue that a company may receive from
company for resale (OEM revenue.)
•
Total Software Revenue: The sum of bundled software revenue, unbundled
software revenue, and add-on software revenue
•
Total Workstation Revenue: The sum of new workstation revenue and
add-on workstation revenue
•
Total Workstations Shipped: The sum of new and add-on workstations
shipped
•
Unbundled Software Revenue: Revenue derived from the sale of software
only, or that software not sold as part of a turnkey system (Unbundled
software is sold by software-only companies as well as by a growing
number of turnkey companies.)
•
Year-End System Population: The installed base of systems at the end of a
given year, minus any system retirements (This element takes into account
current year system shipments, estimated current year system retirements,
and previous year system population.)
•
Year-End Workstation Population: The workstation installed base at the end
of a given year, less any workstation retirements (This element takes into
account current year workstation shipments and retirements and previous
year workstation installed base.)
CCIS Markets
revenue received, measured in
revenue, service revenue, and
as reported does not include
products that are sold to another
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Intro-17
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CAD/CAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Markets and Analyses
Title Page
INTRODUCTION TO THE SERVICE*
Need for the Service
Service Structure and Terminology
Service Organization and Coding
Service Features and Procedures
Service Staff
Subscription Terms
TABLE OF
1
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2
Mechanical Definitions
Mechanical Executive Summary
Mechanical Market Overview
Total Mechanical CAD/CAM
Mechanical Market Shares
Mechanical Regions
Mechanical Product Types
AEC CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
4
Market Overview
Application Overview
Geographical Overview
Product Type Overview
MECHANICAL CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4
3
CONTENTS
AEC
AEC
AEC
Total
AEC
AEC
AEC
Definitions
Executive Summary
Market Overview
AEC CAD/CAM
Market Shares
Regions
Product Types
MAPPING CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4.1
4.4.2
4.4.3
4.4.4
Mapping Definitions
Mapping Executive Summary
Mapping Market Overview
Total Mapping CAD/CAM
Mapping Market Shares
Mapping Regions
Mapping Product Types
* Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
Table of Contents
CADlCAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Markets and Analyses (Continued)
5
EDA CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS*
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4.1
5.4.2
5.4.3
5.4.4
6
Definitions
Executive Summary
Market Overview
ED A C AD/C AM
Market Shares
Regions
Product Types
IC CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4.1
6.4.2
6.4.3
6.4.4
7
EDA
EDA
EDA
Total
EDA
EDA
EDA
IC Definitions
IC Executive Summary
IC Market Overview
Total IC CAD/CAM
IC Market Shares
IC Regions
IC Product Types
PCB CAD/CAM APPLICATIONS
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4.1
7.4.2
7.4.3
7.4.4
PCB Definitions
PCB Executive Summary
PCB Market Overview
Total PCB CAD/CAM
PCB Market Shares
PCB Regions
PCB Product Types
* Titles in capital letters signify
%,
tabs.
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
CCIS Markets
Table of Contents
CAD/CAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Corporate Profiles
INTRODUCTION TO CORPORATE PROFILES*
Introduction to Corporate Profiles
Scoreboard
Five Year Overview
1983-1979 Scoreboards
Adage, Inc.
Apollo Computer
Applicon Incorporated
Auto-trol Technology Corporation
Cadlinc Incorporated
Calma Company
Computervision Corporation
Control Data Corporation
Daisy Systems Corporation
Data General Corporation
Digital Equipment Corporation
Evans & Sutherland Computer Corporation
Gould Inc.
Hewlett-Packard Company
Intergraph Corporation
IBM Corporation
Lexidata Corporation
LSI Logic Corporation
The MacNeal-Schwendler Corporation
McDonnell Douglas Automation Company
Mentor Graphics Corporation
PDA Engineering
Personal CAD Systems, Inc.
Prime Computer Inc.
The Perkin-Elmer Corporation
Racal-Redac Limited
Scientific Calculations, Inc.
Synercom
Tektronix, Inc.
Telesis Systems Corporation
Valid Logic Systems Incorporated
VLSI Technology Incorporated
" Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
Table of Contents
CADlCAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Data Base
Title Page
VOLUME II -
INTRODUCTION*
Introduction to the Service
APPENDIX A FORECASTS
Appendix A — Forecasts
A . l Forecasts — All Companies
A.2 All Standalone Products
A. 3 All Host-Dependent Products
A. 4 All Personal Computer Products
APPENDIX B MARKET SHARE
Appendix B — Market Share
B.l Market Share — All Companies
B.2 All Standalone Products
B.3 All Host-Dependent Products
B.4 All Personal Computer Products
APPENDIX C HISTORICAL COMPANY DATA
Appendix C — Historical Company Data
C.l Historical Data — By Company
APPENDIX E
Economic Data and Outlook
* Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
CCIS Markets
Table of Contents
CADlCAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Newsletters 1985-Present
NEWSLETTERS*
DATAQUEST's Semiconductor Industry Conference: Snapshot of an Industry in Transition
ADEE East Show: Partners at Work
Computer-Aided Inspection: Measuring Up to Quality
Engineering Workstation Market Heats Up in Japan
Daisy Systems Wraps Digital's VAX Products Into Fold
Sharing the Expertise: The Semiconductor and Electronic CAD Markets Team Up for
Automated Design
New 68020 Workstations . . . Right On Track, But for How Long?
The 22nd DAC: The Industry Shakes, Ratdes, and Rolls in Las Vegas
AE Systems 85 Low-Cost Drafting Pencils Versus Integrated Solutions
The Ultimate IC Design Tool Race Rages On
The Generation Gap—An Update on 32-bit Microprocessors
16-Bit Microprocessor Market in 1984
1985 CAD/CAM User Survey Results
CAE Systems' PC Strikes at Standalone Market
The Wait is Over—Digital Unveils the Micro VAX II
Whitechapel Computer Works' MG-1—A Personal Workstation
Personal Computer-Based CAD/CAM—Miracle or Mirage?
Conununications/Networking in Design Automation: A Vital Link
Calma Announces Low-Cost GDSII
3-D Graphics Terminals—Perceptions Change as Costs Fall
Tektronix Prepares to Test EDA Vendors
A Silicon Valley Start-Up Takes on the CAD Market Goliaths
* Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
Table of Contents
CADlCAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Newsletters 1981-1984
NEWSLETTERS*
Daisy Systems Acquires Vulcan Software Platform for Electromechanical Strategy
McDonnell Douglas's CIMTECH and IBM . . . Not Just Another VAR
Auto-trol Eyes Data Structure Technology; Buys Tricad
CAD/CAM Software: Forecasts and Analysis
Digital Announces Its Most Powerful Performer—The VAX 8600
Solids Modeling: Market Potential Still Untapped
Sun Microsystems Expands Product Line
Intergraph—Four New Significant Products
Autofact 1984
Adage: The New CAD/CAM Turnkey Vendor With the CADstation 2/50
IBM Announces New Graphics Products; Opens Door for Graphics Standards
Daisy Systems Corporation: The Growth of a Company
IBM Announces Awesome New Products
Saber Technology Combines Design Innovation and Systems Integration
The Ridge 32—Reaching New Levels of Computing Price/Performance
The Design Automation Conference is the Premier EDA Show
CV Acknowledges the VAX and Ushers in Medusa
Personal Computer-Based CAD/CAM Systems: Market Trends
Silvar-Lisco: A Software Company or a Turnkey Company?
The Second Big Gun Explodes
Calcomp's New 32-Bit Standalone System 25 for the AEC Market
SST Systems—New Levels of Price/Performance For Plant Analysis
Computer Graphics Tokyo '84
Parallax to Unveil High-Speed Graphics Controllers at NCGA
Prime Computer Acquires Joint Co-ownership of Medusa Software
Major Product Announcements From Mentor Graphics
The Boom in Semiconductor Start-ups
CAD/CAM 1983: Momentum
Electronic Design Automation Year-End Summary
CAD/CAM User Survey
Computervision Announces Strategic Product Plan
The Evolution of the Printed Circuit Board CAD Market Part 2
Apollo Delivers Non-68000 Based Systems
The Evolution of the Printed Circuit Board CAD Market Part 1
The Choice is Right: Calma Positions Itself With a Choice of Product Lines
IRIS—The Integrated Raster Imaging System
Real Time Displays and CAD/CAM: The Weitek Approach
Input Devices Report
Data General Announces the Eclipse MV/4000 For Industrial and Office Automation
Computervision Changes Vertical Integration Direction Announces IBM System
Graphics at Work: NCGA '83
Auto-trol Reborn: Company Shows Renewed Interest in ABC
CAE Electronic Design Automation System Slotted for Fall Dehvery
Summary of the Design Automation Conference and the National Computer Graphics
Association Conference, 1983
Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
'•
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
CCIS Markets
Table of Contents
CAD/CAM INDUSTRY SERVICE
Newsletters 1981-1984
(Continued)
NEWSLETTERS* (Continued)
Apollo Computer Introduces the DN300 Networked Engineering Workstation
Electronic Design Automation (EDA) and Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC)
CAD/CAM in Japan
Gould Moving Toward Factory Automation?
Graphics Price/Performance Update
Piping in AEC, Part 2
Plotters in CAD/CAM Market Forces Give Rise to New Market Segmentation
Hewlett-Packard Unveils HP 9000 Engineering Workstation
Piping in AEC: More Developments Needed to Meet Industry Needs
Emerging Market for Personal Computer-Based CAD Systems
Summary 1982: Adjustments to the Economy and a Plethora of Product Offerings
Update: Integrated Circuit Design Automation Market
Solid Modeling: A Key to Success in Mechanical CAD/CAM
HP Announces Reorganization
Prime Computer Acquires English Software Company
Metheus Introduces New Generation VLSI Development System
Computervision Acquires European CAD/CAM Companies
Computer Companies in CAD/CAM: Prime Computer Cuts Workstation Prices
CADAM: Software For IBM and IBM Plug-Compatible Machines
Turnkeys Address the IC Workstation Market
The IBM and IBM Plug-Compatible Graphics Display Market for CAD/CAM Applications
Array Processors and CAD/CAM: The Intergraph Approach
New Performance Levels for Graphics Systems in CAD/CAM
Full House Dealt from DEC
CAD Address the Gate Array Market
The 32-Bit Computer and Its Impact on the CAD/CAM Industry
Ultra High-Performance GPMC Market Update
IBM Announces Reorganization
Start-up CAD Companies Aim at the Engineer
General Electric Unfolds Plans for Factory of the Future
' Titles in capital letters signify tabs.
CCIS Markets
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
Table of Contents
(Page intentionally left blank)
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated Jan. 15
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
Chapter 1 outlines and discusses the CAD/CAM market from a high-level
perspective. It is intended to be used as a summary overview for the research
presented in Chapters 2 through 7 and in the Forecast volume.
The body of this chapter follows Dataquest's CAD/C/yVI Industry Service data
base format illustrated in Figure 1.0-1. Each of the six information tiers listed at
the left of the figure is discussed in order, with figures, tables, and bulletized
analysis.
Figure 1.0-1
Dataquest CAD/CAM Data Base Structure
Turnkey
Components
Computers
Applications
Mechanical
1
Graphic
Terminals
Mapping
AEC
Nonturnkey
Peripherals
Europe
Regions
Indirect
Direct:
Channel
Software
Service
IC
PCB
EDA
Far East
North
America
ROW
UK FR GR
Systems
Architecture
Personal
Computer
Price
Less Than
$20K
1 :5C BE OE JA KG TA SG HK CH
Standalone
$20K-$50K
Host-Dependent
$15K-$80K
Greater Than
$80K
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-1
1.0 Market Overview
MARKET OVERVIEW
The CAD/CAM market remains one of the most dynamic application areas in
the high-technology industry. It is a melting pot of computers, graphics, and
application software that, when combined, form the nucleus of a system used to
design and manufacture a wide array of products and components.
1985-SLOWING REVENUE GROWTH
From a historical perspective, 1985 was a difficult year for the major turnkey
CAD/CAM vendors. As Figure 1.0-2 illustrates, the major turnkey vendors enjoyed
a 40 to 50 percent year-to-year growth rate until 1985, when growth fell beiow
20 percent. Dataquest believes that this 20 percent growth rate represents a
permanent correction in the marketplace. We expect that over the next five years,
the CAD/CAM industry as a whole will grow at an average of 21 percent.
Figure 1.0-2
Major Turnkey CAD/CAM Percent Growth
Percent
1
80-
70
SO-
SO-
40-
30
20
10-
0-
1980
19B1
13S2
1963
1984
1985
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
LO-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
When compared to other high-technology industries, however, the CAD/CAM
industry did not fare badly. Figure 1.0-3 reveals that the adjusted CAD/CAM
industry growth (discounting the sale of personal computers and nonturnkey
systems) was 33 percent from 1984 to 1985. The CAD/CAM industry outperformed
graphics terminais, telecommunications equipment, computers, display terminals,
semiconductors, and printers. Even the 17 percent growth of the major turnkey
vendors looks good compared to these other industries.
Figure 1.0-3
Selected High-Technology Industries' Growtii
1984-1985
Percent
40-
30
^^^^^
^
^
20-
10
•L V ' \ \
%
$SSN
O^'-y..
-10-
-20
CAD/CAM
Graphics
Terminals
Telecom
Equipment
Computers
Display
Semiconductors
Terminais
Printers
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-3
1.0 Market Overview
•
VENTURE CAPITAL SLOWDOWN
The slowing infusion of venture capital is a positive factor affecting not only the
CAD/CAM industry but other areas of high technology as well. As
Figure 1.0-4 indicates, Dataquest believes that venture capital commitments to
independent private firms has been brought more in line with historical investing
patterns. This has helped to stem the tide of "me too" companies and products that
were spawned by overly ambitious venture capital outlays during 1983 and 1984.
The downside to this slowing capital infusion is that IBM's $4.72 billion spent on
R«&D in 1985 is more than double the entire $2.35 billion in venture capital outlays
in 1985. The implications here are fairly obvious.
Figure 1.0-4
How Much Venture Capital Is Available?
Billions of Dollars
4$3,408
$3,185
$1,423
$0,967
t-
r
$0,681
$0,216
=rv
1978
$0,170
\ X\ \
1979
vVX^
1980
1981
1962
1983
1984
1985
Source: Venture Capital Journal
•
1.0-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
FALLING WORKSTATION PRICES
A major problem facing many CAD/CAM vendors is the dramatic decline in
average workstation selling prices. Through 1983, workstations averaged around
$90,000 per seat as shown in Figure 1.0-5. With the influx of personal computers
and Other low-cost engineering workstations, the average selling price fell to the
current $56,000 per seat. Dataquest believes that hardware prices have stabilized
and most vendors have begun to realign their organizations to accommodate the
changing product mix toward lower-priced systems. Therefore, Dataquest is not
looking for any new dramatic market corrections as a result of lower average selling
prices.
Figure 1.0-5
CAD/CAM Workstation Average Selling Prices
Thousands of Dollars
yoAO
7rt^
fif)
10
A0>
30
PQ^
10-
n-i
19B0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Source: DaUqutit
June 19S6
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-5
1.0 Market Overview
One positive effect that has resulted from lower average selling prices is that
unit demand has been highly elastic. Workstation unit shipments grew 380 percent
from 1983 to 1985 while prices dropped 40 percent during the same period.
Dataquest believes that a good deal of this increased demand came from first-time
PC-based CAD/CAM buyers who ordinarily would not have purchased a CAD
system unless it was priced at low "consumer-like" levels, which reduced the
purchasing risk. Dataquest predicts that in the future, the majority of workstation
purchases will come from repeat buyers who plan to expand the use of CAD/C/yvI
throughout their organizations. This trend is graphically represented in
Figure 1.0-6. The implications of this trend are as follows:
•
Repeat purchasers have vastly different
expectations than first-time purchasers.
purchasing
criteria
and
•
Repeat purchases usually have strong requirements for data and hardware
compatibility with existing systems.
•
Repeat purchases often encompass a much broader range of
application-solution reqiiirements, such as linkage with manufacturing or
testing disciplines.
•
1.0-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
Figure 1.0-6
CAD/CAM Workstations by Type of Purchaser
Number
of
Workstations
2nct Time
Buyers
1st Time
Buyers
Time
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-7
1.0 Market Overview
THE LEADING VENDORS' MARKET SHARE EROSION
Dataquest has also witnessed another trend in the CAD/CAM industry over the
past few years—the relative market share erosion of the top 10 CAD/CAM
suppliers. Through 1983, the top 10 suppliers captured more than 80 percent of the
market, as shown in Figure 1.0-7. In 1985, the top 10 suppliers' share slipped to
67 percent of the market. While this is still a rather significant share, Dataquest
believes that this trend is likely to continue. In other words, we believe that a
greater number of companies will share in the the wealth of the CAD/CAM
industry. These emerging companies may not ever reach $200 million in revenue,
but we are reasonably certain that a good number of $30 million to $100 million
companies will continue to erode the overall share of the leading 10 vendors.
Figure 1.0-7
CAD/CAM Market Percent Shares of Top 10 Suppliers
Percent
10090-
ao-
M^
Fsss:
70-
sSS's
^'>-V\,
60-
W^
•Mr
5040-
i \
•
mm
30
20
• SS^
^sSW
10
0
1980
1961
1962
1983
$M
m^
1984
1965
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.0-8
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
A key factor contributing to the share erosion of the top 10 suppliers is the
complexity and diversity of today's CAD/C/yVI industry. It no longer comprises a
mere handful of companies chasing after the aerospace and automotive business.
According to Dataquest's Who's Who In CADICAM, more than 500 suppliers provide
products for markets such as technical publishing, garment design, consumer
goods, and medical equipment. Many small companies are addressing niche
Opportunities by coupling application expertise with CAD/CAM technology. The
Autodesk third-party software catalog alone lists more than 100 enterprising young
companies that have designed application-specific products that "piggy-back" the
AutoCAD program. Most of these companies are down in the noise level, with less
than $1 million in annual sales. But collectively, the noise these companies have
made has risen to a dull roar and could become much louder in the future.
ACCESS—THE NEXT WORKSTATION PRODUCTIVITY DRIVER
Throughout the 1970s and early 1980s, most CAD/C/\M system purchases were
justified on the basis of delivering sorely needed computer power to critical
problems in the design process. Although this application of computer power has
greatly improved the productivity of an individual or discipline, it is all too apparent
that what has really happened is that that CAD/CAM system has simply moved the
product automation bottleneck from one discipline to another. For example, the
CAD/CAM system installed in the drafting department has allowed the delivery of a
three-foot stack of drawings to manufacturing instead of a one-foot stack. The
overall productivity of the operation has not improved, however, because
manufacturing cannot deal with that many drawings all at once.
Dataquest believes that the next wave of workstation purchases will be justified
by longer-range plans to plug all disciplines into the CADICAM network to improve
productivity of the entire operation (see Figure 1.0-8). We are already seeing
evidence of this trend at companies such as General Motors, Hughes, Boeing, and
Rockwell.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-9
1.0 Market Overview
Figure 1.0-8
CAD/CAM Systems Evolution
Productivity
A
Access
Function
Time
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.0-10
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
THE CADICAM SOFTWARE HIDING PLACE
One of the biggest problems facing the CAD/CAM industry was pointed out by
William Zarecor, Vice President of Marketing for Intergraph Corp. at the
Prudential-Bache 1985 Autofact conference. As indicated in Figure 1.0-9, the
declining cost of hardware is uncovering the hidden price of software. In a turnkey
system, the price of the software is buried in the price of hardware. Mr. Zarecor's
concern, which we also share, is the market's reaction to having to pay more for the
software than the hardware. Dataquest believes that the combination of falling
hardware prices, standardized hardware platforms, and smarter users will
inevitably lead to the emergence of the nonturnkey market. This in turn will lead to
unbundling and site licensing. There is simply not enough room in the market for
two markups on hardware. CAD/CAM technology and standards have matured to
the point where CAD/CAM is no longer a black art; users can now perform the
necessary software and hardware integration themselves.
Figure 1.0-9
CAD/CAM Software Hiding Place
Cost
Cost Of Hardware
Software
"Hiding Place"
Time
Source: Intergraph Corporation
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-11
1.0 Market Overview
CHANGING TREATMENT OF AUTOMATION EXPENDITURES
A major change is taking place within large manufacturing companies
regarding the way in which automation expenditures (such as CAD/CAM) are
handled. In the past, engineering and manufacturing had separate budgets to
vertically automate their organizations, as illustrated in Figure 1.0-10. Very little
time and dollars were spent ensuring that the automation equipment could be
bridged across disciplines. Now, however, in order to ensure consistency,
companies are building separate organizations headed by chief automation officers,
to organize their strategic expenditures across disciplines (see Figure 1.0-11). For
example, General Motors bought Electronic Data Systems to serve in this capacity.
The implications of this change are as follows:
•
CAD/CAM vendors must provide gateways or solutions that encompass a
much broader range of applications.
•
CAD/CAM vendors will have to deal with having their systems scrutinized
in new environments and, therefore, will have to learn to speak new
languages and provide support for these disciplines.
•
Having C/UD/CAM systems treated as strategic, as opposed to tactical,
expenditures tends to raise the purchasing decision to a higher level within
an organization. In other words, the decision on which company to buy
from becomes more of a business decision than a technical preference.
1.0-12
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
•
Figure 1.0-10
Traditional Automation Budget Allocation
Engineering
IVIanufacturing
$
$
Tactical
•
Strategic
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-13
l.Q Market Overview
Figure 1.0-11
Future Automation Budget Allocation
Engineering
Manufacturing
Chief
Automation
Officer
Strategic
$
$
$
Tactical
Tactical
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
TECHNOLOGY OPPORTUNITIES
Dataquest sees a number of key technological opportunities emerging within
the CAD/CAM market over the next several years, including:
•
Silicon compilation
•
Desktop systems
•
Expert systems
•
Application accelerators
•
CAD/CAM data bases
1.0-14
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
Silicon Compilation
James Solomon, president of Solomon Design Associates, calls silicon
compilation the "Manhattan project of the eighties." Silicon compilation is changing
the way integrated circuits are designed and is shrinking design cycles from weeks
and months, to days and hours. Dataquest views silicon compilation as a
replacement technology for handcrafted and place-and-route systems. In 1985,
silicon compiler-based CAD systems accounted for $8.8 million in revenue.
Dataquest believes that silicon compilation will grow at a 157 percent compound
annual growth rate through 1990 when revenue is expected to top $520 million.
Desktop Systems
The desktop workstation technology area is experiencing explosive growth. The
new breed of low-cost, high-performance systems from companies such as Apollo
Computer, Digital Equipment, IBM, and Sun Microsystems is spawning a new era
of price/performance. The critical need to plug many people into CAD/CAM
networks at an affordable cost is accelerating the instaliation of low-cost, desktop
systems. Dataquest believes that the new low-cost, high-performance, 32-bit virtual
workstations will begin to place considerable pressure on personal computers
beginning this year.
Expert Systems
Dataquest believes that expert systems will begin to play a more prominent role
in the design of future CAD/CAM systems. However, we do not expect CAD/CAM
expert system development to employ Lisp or Prolog languages running on
inference engines. Rather, we believe that expert systems as applied to CAD/CAM
means separating knowledge from the application and including more advanced
reasoning features to help the user solve a particular problem. Dataquest believes
that these systems will be designed using standard Fortran and C languages running
on standard computer architectures.
Application Accelerators
Application accelerators that employ custom and semicustom integrated circuits
will become more common in CAD/CAM systems. Today, application accelerators
have been successfully applied to accelerate circuit simulation and graphics.
Dataquest also envisions the use of accelerators to speed up finite element analysis
and data base retrieval in the very near future.
CCIS Marltets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-15
1.0 Market Overview
CAD/CAM Data Bases
There has been a good deal of recent discussion regarding which data base
technology to use in order to manage a large CAD/CAM data base that has to be
accessed by many disciplines. Most commercial data base applications were
designed for payroll, order entry, and inventory management applications.
CAD/CAM data bases are much more complex, primarily because they have to
deal with graphical information. For example, a B-spline surface is considerably
more complex than an employee record in a personnel file.
Although nothing has emerged that completely solves the myriad of problems
associated with implementing large-scale CAD/CAM data bases, the approach
illustrated in Figure 1.0-12 looks very promising from our perspective. SST
Systems, an AEC process plant design software vendor, developed this "software
switch" concept in order to better accommodate the numerous ways that piping
information has to be handled. The system utilizes a relational data base as the
core holding tank and employs software switches that build data bases on demand
that are suited specifically for the needs of a given application. For example, the
core data base might contain all of the design and fabrication information for a
single process plant. To interact with the data base, software switches are devised
to extract and build application data bases with data types geared specifically for
P&IDs, piping runs, or detail drawings. Efficiency is no longer compromised when
designing an application by being tied to a data structure that was designed for
another purpose. Dataquest believes that this approach would also adapt easily to
electronic and mechanical applications.
1.0-16
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
Figure 1.0-12
CAD/CAM Software Switch Data Base Technology
•
Source: SST Systems, Inc.
Dataquest
June 1986
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Dataquest sees a number of key market opportunities emerging within the
CAD/CAM market over the next several years, including:
•
Mechanical computer-aided engineering
•
Facilities management
Integration and support services
•
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-17
1.0 Market Overview
•
Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
The MCAE market has received a great deal of attention recently due to the
emergence of two start-ups, Aries Technology and Cognition. These two companies
are attempting to build and deliver systems designed to address theconceptual
design problem as opposed to the more common turnkey approach, which
emphasizes drafting and documentation. Dataquest believes that the MCAE market
is being driven by the following factors:
•
The first 5 percent of engineering dollars spent on a particular design
dictates 85 percent of the committed engineering cost. MCAE helps to
ensure that the early stages of the design process yield the best possible
downstream results.
•
It is 100 times more expensive to make design changes in the
manufacturing cycle as it is in the conceptual design stage. MCAE systems
can drastically reduce expensive design changes.
•
MCAE tools typically are used by a small group of highly educated
individuals with advanced engineering degrees in a given engineering
organization. Dataquest believes that the new breed of easier-to-use MCAE
systems will open up a large, new market for the remaining engineering
masses who need access to conceptual design and analysis tools.
In 1985, the MCAE market (including both hardware and software) totaled
$210 million in revenue. Dataquest expects the MCAE market to grow more than
30 percent compounded annually tlirough 1990, when revenue will reach
$753 million.
Facilities Management
The facilities management market deals with using a CAD system to manage
physical assets such as buildings and manufacturing plants after they are built.
Typical functions include space allocation, furniture layout, and asset utilization.
Dataquest recently conducted a survey in the facilities management market and
found that less than 2 percent of the potential market has been penetrated. The
major problem in the facilities management market today is establishing clear
channels of distribution. Dataquest estimates that revenue from the sale of facilities
management systems reached $65 million in 1985. Revenue is expected to grow to
more than $275 million by 1990, a 33 percent compound average growth rate.
•
1-0-18
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.0 Market Overview
Integration and Support Services
Dataquest believes that services aimed at integrating existing CAD/CAM and
data processing equipment represent a very lucrative market opportunity. The real
question here is not if but how to address this opportunity. IBM has begun
providing commercial CIM integration services by using its Federal Systems Group
in a SWAT-team fashion. McDonnell Douglas has also established a major CIM
business unit to address the area of industrial integration.
MARKET PENETRATION
Table 1.0-1 itemizes U.S. market penetration by application. Dataquest
believes that only 4.7 percent of the U.S. CAD/CAM market has been penetrated
thus far. Although detailed overseas census information is not available, Dataquest
believes that penetration on a global level is less than 5 percent.
Table 1.0-1
U.S. CAD/CAM Market Penetration
1985
Mechanical
AEC
Mapping
Electronic
Total
Installed Workstations
50,900
25,200
4,400
26,400
106,900
Total Available Market
892,000
538,000
151,000
674,000
2,255.000
Penetration Percentage
5.7%
4.7%
2.9%
3.9%
4.7%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor
Dataquest
June 1986
•
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.0-19
1.1 Industry Overview
ESTIMATED CAD/CAM WORLDWIDE REVENUE
Dataquest estimates that the 1985 C/UD/CAM market exceeded $4.8 billion in
worldwide revenue, as shown in Table 1.1-1 and Figure 1.1-1 Revenue. The market
is expected to grow at a 21.8 percent CAGR, exceeding $12 billion in revenue by
1990.
Dataquest forecasts the market to grow 21 percent overall in 1986, reaching
$5.8 billion in revenue. The key factors influencing positive growth in 1986 are as
follows:
•
Lower U.S. prime interest rates
•
A Strengthening U.S. economy
•
Uncertainty over IBM's RT PC removed
•
Improving overseas economic climate
•
Low levels of CAD/CAM workstation penetration
Negative factors affecting CAD/CAM revenue growth in 1986 are as follows:
•
Falloff in industrial production
•
Slowing automobile sales
•
Slowing commercial building starts
•
Capital cutbacks in the oil industry
•
Uncertainty over tax legislation
Table 1.1-1
Total CAD/CAM Market
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
4,849
65,212
82,056
5,863
88,769
107,051
7,116
118,891
139,497
8,624
157,873
180,471
10,397
211,532
234,056
12,511
283,682
304,055
20.9%
34.2%
29.9%
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Source:
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
1.1-1
1.1 Industry Overview
Figure 1.1-1 Revenue
Total CAD/CAM Market
Millions of Dollars
12000-1
H^WSI
10000
^ ^
r%:s:
m
8000
6000
fl
;si
m
4000
NAKVJ
NAV'AJ
2000
'^1
19S5
1996
1987
1988
1989
m
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
•
1.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.1 Industry Overview
ESTIMATED CAD/CAM WORKSTATION SHIPMENTS
Figure 1.1-1 Shipments illustrates Dataquest's estimate for CAD/CAM
workstation unit growth. In 1985, more than 82,000 CAD/CAM workstations were
shipped worldwide. Dataquest predicts that unit growth will be nearly 30 percent in
1986, and reach 107,051 units. Dataquest estimates that unit demand will grow at a
30 percent compound annual growth rate, swelling to 304,055 units in 1990.
Figure 1.1-1 Shipments
Total CAD/CAM Market
Workstation Shipments
320000 > . A "zs:
280000 -
240000-
200000
160000
NX'
120000
[AXNXI
80000
V'v
xv
40000
wX^
$A^:
'X'^'-X'
C v X .,
vvxX
wXN
XV-'X
1965
1986
^X%^>
^ "\-\SS
1987
198B
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.1-3
l . I Industry Overview
•
MARKET SHARE
Figure 1.1-2 lists the top 10 CAD/CAM market share leaders in 1985, while
Table 1.1-2 ranks all 1985 CAD/CAM revenue by company. The market share
erosion that has beset the major CAD/CAM vendors has not been equally
distributed. Companies such as Daisy, Intergraph, McDonnell Douglas, Mentor, and
Prime grew at or above the normal industry average of 30 percent.
Figure 1.1-2
Total CAD/CAM Market Shares
1985
Control Data
2.4%
Daisy
2.8%
Mentor
2.8%
prime
2.9%
Appllcon
3.2%
Source: Oataauest
June 1986
1.1-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.1 Industry Overview
Table 1.1-2
Total CAD/CAM M a r k e t Shares
COMPANY
IBM
Intergraph
Computervision
Calma
HcAuto
Applicon
Prime
Mentor
Daisy
Control Data
Hewlett-Packard
Auto-Trol
Valid
Racal-Redac
Holguin-CAD
Scientific Calculations
Matra Datavision
Calconip
Ci Inline
Ferrant i
Autodesk
Zycad
Cadnetix
Graftek
Gerlser Systems
MacNeal Schwendler
Futurenet
Tektronix
Silvar-Lisco
Synercom
Cat ay
SDRC
Telesis
Gerber Scientific
Other Computer Companies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey and Software
All Companies
1985
REVENUE
1985
SHARE
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
17.9%
10.9%
9.1%
3.8%
3.5%
3.2%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.4%
1.9%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
870
526
441
183
170
155
140
137
134
116
90
65
57
51
50
48
36
33
32
27
27
26
25
24
22
21
20
20
18
17
16
15
15
6
229
231
570
184
% 4 ,849
.7%
.7%
.6%
.6%
.6%
.5%
.5%
.5%
.5%
.4%
.4%
.4%
.4%
.4%
.3%
.3%
.3%
.1%
4.7%
4.8%
11.8%
3.8%
100.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.1-5
l^lBldustry Overview
IBM
IBM was the leading CAD/C/VM vendor again in 1985, recording more than
$870 million in CAD/CAM revenue. This includes the sale of turnkey CAD/CAM
systems, not the sale of IBM hardware in nonturnkey channels. Dataquest estimates
that IBM received an additional $200 million to $300 million from the sale of
nonturnkey hardware such as personal computers used for CAD/CAM sold through
indirect channels, and 43xx and 308x mainframes sold to end users running
internally developed CAD/CAM systems.
On January 21, 1986, IBM announced the IBM RT PC, which is the company's
first technical workstation. Market reaction to the RT PC has been
uncharacteristically weak in the CAD/CAM application areas due to limited
software availability and sub-par floating-point and networking performance.
Dataquest expects IBM to upgrade the RT PC's performance during the
third quarter of 1986, which should bring the machine more in line with
competitive workstation offerings.
IBM also began unveiling its EDA strategy earlier this year with the
announcement of a new line of products called the Computer Integrated Electrical
Design Series (CIEDS). These products are based primarily on software products
from Silvar-Lisco.
Intergraph
Intergraph grew 30 percent in 1985, a product transition year for the company.
Intergraph made great strides in the mechanical CAD/CAM application segment in
1985, which grew 57 percent over 1984.
The company recently reorganized its sales force into three divisions that
address vertical opportunities in manufacturing, AEC, and mapping exploration. A
lackluster first quarter of 1986 was widely expected as a result of this
reorganization; however, the company reported very encouraging results with a
35 percent increase in sales and a 29 percent increase in profit over the same
f^riod; in 1985.
Computervision
In 1985, it became apparent that Computervision's product line was too broad
for the average salesperson to understand, much less support. The company fully
recognizes this and has been refocusing most of its resources behind the recently
announced CADDStation products based on the company's popular C/UDD4X
mechanical CAD/CAM software and the Sun Microsystem engineering workstation.
Initial market reaction to the new CADDStation products has been very strong.
Dataquest expects the hemorrhaging that Computervision has been experiencing in
its installed base will subside as a result of the new CADDStation products.
1.1-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.1 Industry Overview
Calma
Caima also had a tough 1985, although it made some impressive gains in the
AEC industry. Calma is continuing to invest heavily in research and development
bouyed by an $80 million dollar cash infusion from its parent, General Electric.
McDonnell Douglas
McDonnell Douglas is one of the fastest growing CAD/CAD companies in the
industry, growing over 63 percent in 1985. Although its primary business remains
in the mechanical CAD/C/^M application segment, the company has made
tremendous inroads in the AEC business with its recent acquisition of Applied
Research of Cambridge. The company has also taken some business away from
Intergraph by teaming up with Synercom in the Civil Engineering CAD areas.
Perhaps the company's greatest strength is its strong computer integrated
manufacturing (CIM) image. Dataquest believes that having a strong CIM market
perception will be a key factor in future CAD/CAM sales.
Applicon
In 1985, Applicon underwent a year of transition and reorganization. The
company merged with a sister Schlumberger company called Manufacturing Data
Systems Incorporated (MDSI) and moved its corporate headquarters from
Burlington, Massachusetts, to Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The company recently introduced BRAVO HI, its core mechanical CAD/CAM
software on the Sun and Digital Equipment workstations. It has also unveiled a new
high-performance color graphics display that has a resolution of 1,600 by
1,400 pixels.
Prime Computer
Prime grew 33 percent in 1985, showing revenue of $140 million in
CAD/CAM. The company now has full control of the Medusa software and has
assembled a very strong management and development team to guide the future of
its CAD/CAM products. Dataquest believes that later this year, Prime will unveil a
new RISC technology workstation that is based on the MIPS computer and Silicon
Graphics terminals.
Mentor Graphics
Mentor experienced difficult third and fourth quarters last year as the market
was reacting to personal computers and waiting for IBM's new workstation. In spite
of this, the company grew a very respectable 56 percent. Dataquest believes that
Mentor is off and running this year and should benefit from new products based on
the Apollo DN3000 workstation series.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.1-7
1.1 Industry Overview
Daisy Systems
Daisy Systems was one of the most profitable CAD/CAM companies in 1985.
Today, however, the company is caught in a product transition from delivering
proprietary computer systems to industry standard machines from Digital
Equipment and IBM. Dataquest expects Daisy to begin shipping most of its
applications on Digital Equipment and IBM hardware by the third quarter of this
year.
Control Data
Control Data did a very quiet $116 million in CAD/CAM revenue in 1985. The
company has a solid nucleus of CAD/CAM products aimed primarily at the
meclianical market, and appears to have found a nice niche in delivering
mainframe-based CAD/CAM products. The company also has a very large, loyal
customer in Chrysler, which has standardized its CAD/CAM hardware on the CDC
Cyber mainframes.
1-1-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.2 Application Overview
Figure 1.2-1 and Tables 1.2-1 and 1.2-2 illustrate the expected shift by
application for CAD/C/yVI revenue and units from 1985 through 1990. We
anticipate that the mechanical market will continue to remain the largest
application, accounting for 54 percent of CAD/CAM revenue through 1990. The
electronic CAD/C/^M applications (EDA, IC, and PCB combined) will grow slightly
faster than the market as a whole, capturing 25 percent of the market in 1990.
MECHANICAL MARKET
The mechanical CAD/CAM market, which is the oldest and largest application
segment, accounted for more than 55 percent of total CAD/CAM revenue in 1985.
Dataquest believes that the mechanical segment will continue to be the dominant
application through 1990, reaching more than $6.8 billion in revenue.
Below are the key factors that we believe will affect the mechanical CAD/CAM
application segment:
•
Solids modeling is fast becoming a mainstream requirement whose
acceptance has been accelerated by the availability of low-cost,
high-performance, technical workstations.
•
The MCAE market is expected be a major market opportunity helping to
drive the sale of large-scale CAD/CAM systems.
•
The ability to perform CIM tasks or integrate into a CIM environment will
be a key success factor for vendors selling mechanical CAD/CAM systems.
AEC MARKET
The 1985 AEC market continued to be dominated by Intergraph on the high
erid, and by personal computer-based CAD suppliers such as Autodesk on the low
end. Total 1985 revenue was $746 million, up 34 percent over 1984 revenue of
$554 million. With respect to the AEC market, Dataquest offers the following
observations:
•
Personal computer-based systems will continue to dominate unit sales in
the AEC application segment.
•
Intergraph continues to dominate the AEC segment, capturing almost
one-third of the market.
•
The slowdown in U.S. commercial building activity is expected to have a
major adverse effect on CAD sales in the architectural market segment.
•
Capital spending cutbacks in the oil and oil-related industries are expected
to adversely affect sales of CAD systems.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.2-1
1.2 AppIication Overview
MAPPING MARKET
The mapping market is the smallest CAD/CAM application segment. Many of
the CAD/CAM vendors that helped pioneer this area have ignored it in recent
years, due largely to their inability to satisfy the need for more intelligent
mapmaking tools. In 1985, two vendors, Intergraph and Synercom, dominated this
market segment with a combined 69 percent market share. Dataquest forecasts that
mapping will grow at a compound annual rate of 27 percent through 1990, reaching
$720 million in worldwide revenue.
Other important points with respect to the mapping market are as follows:
•
Unlike other CAD/CAM applications, mapping systems are almost entirely
host-based systems. Due to the large data base requirements of this
application, we expect host-dependent systems to continue to dominate,
although we believe that standalone devices will play a greater role as
front-end graphics devices.
•
Intergraph's dominance in mapping is due primarily to its large installed
base in the utility and municipal industry segments.
EDA MARKET
In 1985, the EDA market was the fastest-growing CAD/CAM application
segment, growing over 92 percent in revenue from $276 million in 1984 to
$531 million in 1985. Mentor, Daisy, and Valid continued to set the pace for this
dynamic market, capturing 24, 20, and 9 percent market share, respectively.
Dataquest believes that in 1986, the EDA market growth will slow significantly to
19 percent growth overall. A good deal of this growth is expected to come from
new EDA market participants such as IBM, Hewlett-Packard, and Tektronix.
Other observations that Dataquest believes are important with respect to the
EDA market segment are as follows:
•
The ability to interface and integrate computer-aided testing activities with
EDA systems is becoming increasingly important in purchasing decisions.
•
A key success barometer for vendors in the EDA market segment will be
the ability to capture repeat purchase business. Dataquest believes that
repeat purchases will outpace new purchases by at least a 2-to-l margin.
•
Products that allow end-to-end EDA integration with many disparate types
of software and hardware will be more marketable than systems with
closed architectures.
1.2-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.2 Application Overview
IC MARKET
The IC CAD market accounted for 1985 revenue of $198 million, which
represented a 26 percent increase over 1984 revenue. Dataquest believes that the
underlying technology in the IC CAD market is changing from handcrafted,
full-custom tools toward cell-based place-and-route systems along with silicon
compilers.
Dataquest identifies the specific trends in IC CAD as follows:
•
By 1990, silicon compilers are expected to capture 47 percent of the
IC CAD market, while automated place-and-route systems are expected to
capture 43 percent; this leaves 10 percent for handcrafted systems.
•
Tighter coupling of IC CAD systems with EDA and test functions is
expected to continue.
PCB MARKET
The PCB market grew 34 percent in 1985, reaching $477 million in revenue.
Dataquest expects the PCB market to grow at an average of 17 percent per year
through 1990, reaching a market size of more than $1 billion in revenue. We
foresee the following factors as playing key roles in this growth opportunity:
•
The shorter product life cycles coupled with the global imperative to
become more productive wiil continue to drive end-user demand for PCB
CAD products.
•
Application accelerators will play a larger role in future PCB CAD systems.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.2-3
1.2 Application Overview
Figure 1.2-1
Total CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Application
ly/lechanical
EZD AEG
1985
I
I Mapping
10
m
PCB
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.2-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.2 Application Overview
•
Table 1.2-1
Total CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
8,624
7,116
10,397 12,511
5,863
4,849
65,212 88,769 118,891 157,873 211,532 283,682
82,056 107,051 139,497 180,471 234,056 304,055
20.9X
34.2%
29.9X
3,266
42,232
53,568
3,952
59,457
71,909
6,760
5,664
4,742
83,537 118,473 167,133
96,607 130,282 176,265
20.4X
41.3X
34.1%
746
896
15,466
18,514
16,977
20,712
1,075
20,774
25,201
1,296
25,352
30,486
1,876
37,096
42,525
20.2%
19.1%
18.1%
2,677
29,632
40,635
AEG
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Mapping
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
220
432
1,752
1,559
30,933
36,465
288
375
476
590
720
2.153
3,866
3,276
5,714
3,661
7,001
4,083
8,425
4,527
9,762
26.7%
60.0%
41.0%
1,138
34,287
34,320
1,354
42,873
42,895
20.6%
25.0%
25.0%
EDA
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
IC
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
531
632
764
940
14,036
14,068
18,705
18,733
22,785
22,817
27,767
27,803
198
230
292
392
543
762
1,196
1,419
1,753
1,950
2,723
2,881
4,164
4,280
6,121
6,197
8,903
8,945
30.9X
49.4%
44.5%
1,038
23,150
23,663
16.8%
39.1%
33.1%
PCS
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
477
552
659
778
902
4,449
5,668
6,949
8,221
9,P76
10,975
13,392
14,294
17,634
18,367
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.2-5
1.2 Application Overview
Table 1.2-2
Total CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Percent of Total)
1985
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
55X
4SX
SOX
56X
48X
SOX
56X
SOX
S2X
55X
53X
54X
54X
56X
S6X
SAX
59X
S8X
15%
24X
23X
15X
19X
19X
1SX
17X
18X
1SX
16X
17X
1SX
1SX
16X
15X
13X
14X
5X
IX
2X
SX
2X
4X
SX
3X
4X
6X
2X
4X
6X
2X
4X
6X
2X
3X
11X
22X
17X
11X
21X
17X
11X
19X
16X
11X
18X
15X
11X
16X
1SX
11X
15X
14X
4X
2X
2X
4X
2X
2X
4X
2X
2X
SX
3X
2X
SX
3X
3X
6X
3X
3X
10X
9X
8X
8X
9X
8X
8X
9X
8X
8X
9X
8X
8X
ex
ax
AEC
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Mapping
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
EDA
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
10
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
PCB
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
7%
7%
8X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
•
1.2-6
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-1 and Tables 1.3-1 and 1.3-2 illustrate the regionalized revenue
forecast for the CAD/CAM market. We predict very little change in the relative
percentages of the CAD/CAM market with respect to geographic distribution. We
expect North America to continue to capture the lion's share of the market with
more than 55 percent share through 1990. In addition, we offer the following points
regarding the geographic distribution of the CAD/CAM marketplace:
•
We believe that North America will grow slightly faster than the world as a
whole, given our bullish long-term outlook for the U.S. economy.
•
The U.S. CAD/CAM industry is one of the few areas of high technology
that is not threatened by foreign competition. In fact, the reverse is true.
Greater than 80 percent of revenue in the 1985 Japanese CAD/CAM
market was derived from U.S.-based C/UD/CAM products.
•
The overseas markets are beginning to see a greater level of competition
from local suppliers.
EUROPEAN MARKET
This section discusses the European CAD/CAM Market. The market numbers
in this section differ from those presented in the forecast model because we have
included the OEM and value-added revenue of European distributors selling
U.S.-based systems.
European Market Revenue
The European CAD/CAM market grew 55 percent in 1985, reaching
$1,164 billion in revenue as illustrated in Figure 1.3-2 Revenue and Table 1.3-3.
Dataquest believes that the European market was outdistanced only by the
Far Eastern CAD/CAM market, which grew 62 percent in 1985. Dataquest expects
the European market to grow 21 percent in 1986, reaching over $1.4 billion in
revenue. We are forecasting a 21 percent compound annual growth rate through
1990, which translates to nearly $3 billion in CAD/CAM revenue in 1990.
European Workstation Shipments
Figure 1.3-2 Shipments illustrates expected unit grovvth for CAD/CAM
workstations sold in European markets. Dataquest forecasts that unit shipments will
exceed 27,000 units in 1986, growing to 76,405 units by 1990.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-1
1.3 Geographical Overview
European Market Share
Figure 1.3-3 and Table 1.3-4 list the European market share leaders. IBM
continues to dominate the European CAD/CAM market followed by
Computervision, Intergraph, Applicon, and Calma.
European Applications
Figure 1.3-4 and Tables 1.3-5 and 1.3-6 identify the European market by
application. The European market is more heavily oriented toward mechanical
CAD/CAM applications than the world market as a whole.
European Regions
Figure 1.3-5 and Table 1.3-7 illustrate 1985 European regional country splits
for the sale of CAD/CAM equipment. Nearly three quarters of all European
revenue is generated by West German, U.K., and French CAD/CAM
manufacturers. Italy is the fastest-growing country in Europe for CAD/CAM
products. Its CAD/CAM revenue grew 142 percent in 1985.
European Product Type
Figures 1.3-6 and 1.3-7 along with Tables 1.3-8 and 1.3-9 represent our
forecast by product type for the European CAD/CAM market. Like other world
markets, the transition from host-based to distributed workstations is well under
way.
FAR EASTERN MARKET
This section discusses the Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market. The market numbers
in this section differ from those presented in the forecast model because we have
included the OEM and value-added revenue of Far Eastern distributors selling
U.S.-based systems.
Far Eastern Market Revenue
The Far Eastern CAD/CAM market grew 62 percent in 1985, reaching
$953 million in revenue as illustrated in Figure 1.3-8 Revenue and Table 1.3-10.
We are forecasting much slower growth in the Far Eastern market (21 percent) in
1986, due primarily to the strength of the Japanese yen as compared with other
world currencies. Dataquest estimates that the Far Eastern market will grow at a
compound annual growth rate of 21 percent, reaching $2.4 billion in revenue by
1990.
1-3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Far Eastern Workstation Shipments
Figure 1.3-8 Shipments illustrates expected unit growth for CAD/CAM
workstations sold in Far Eastern markets. Dataquest forecasts that unit shipments
will exceed 21,000 units in 1986, growing to 58,599 units by 1990.
Far Eastern Market Share
Figure 1.3-9 and Table 1.3-11 list the Far Eastern market share leaders. IBM
continues to dominate the Far Eastern C/UD/CAM market followed by Fujitsu,
Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, and NEC. Unlike other CAD/CAM market regions, the
Far Eastern market is driven by computer companies. Seven of the top ten
Far Eastern CAD/CAM vendors are also computer manufacturers.
Far Eastern Applications
Figure 1.3-10 and Tables 1.3-12 and 1.3-13 identify the Far Eastern market by
application. Like other world markets, the Far Eastern CAD/CAM market is
dominated by mechanical applications. Dataquest does not expect any major shift
in the Far Eastern application mix, although EDA applications are expected to grow
slightly faster than the market as a whole.
Far Eastern Regions
With respect to market size, we believe that Japan represents more than
80 percent of the revenue derived from the sale of CAD/CAM systems in the
Far East. The other Far Eastern regions (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong,
and the Peoples' Republic of China) are just beginning to employ automated design
and manufacturing methods and are somewhat limited in terms of market potential
due to their early stage of industrial evolution. We expect that the non-Japanese
areas' contributions to the Far Eastern revenue base will increase proportionally as
their level of industrialization increases through this century.
Far Eastern Product Type
Figures 1.3-11 and 1.3-12 along with Tables 1.3-14 and 1.3-15 represent our
forecast by product type for the Far Eastern CAD/C/VM market. Like other world
markets, the Far Eastern market is experiencing rapid growth in distributed
workstations, especially personal computers.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-3
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-1
Total CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Region
1%
North America
Europe
1985
J Far east
i
ROW
2%
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-1
Total CAD/CAM Market by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1989
CAGR
Total Marlcet
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
4,849
5,863
7,116
8,624 10.397 12,511
65,212 88,769 118,891 157,873 211.532 283.682
82,056 107,051 139.497 180,471 234,056 304.055
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2,648
36,788
43,905
3,201
47,510
57,239
3,887
63.500
74.840
4,720
6.872
5,701
83,269 112.282 151.129
96,203 125.538 163,688
21.0%
32.7%
30.1%
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,164
19.547
23,663
1,410
22,749
27,103
1,711
31,093
35,928
2,070
41.481
46.644
2.490
54.552
59.585
2,991
72.123
76.405
20.8%
29.8%
26.4%
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
953
8,262
13,521
1,150
17,370
21.158
1.394
22,488
26.430
1.683
30.475
34.421
2,022
41.085
44,724
2.426
55.689
58.599
20.5%
46.5%
34.1%
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
84
615
967
1,141
1,551
21.4%
50.5%
40.9%
102
125
152
184
222
1.810
2,298
2.647
3.203
3,612
4,209
4.741
5,363
20.9X
34.2X
29.9X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-5
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-2
Total CAD/CAM Market by Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
55%
56X
54%
55X
54%
53X
55X
53X
54X
55X
53X
53%
55X
53X
54X
55%
53X
54X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
24X
30%
29X
24%
26X
25X
24X
26X
26X
24X
26X
26X
24X
26X
25X
24X
25X
2SX
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
20X
13X
16X
20X
20X
20X
20X
19X
19X
20X
19X
19X
19%
19X
19X
19X
20%
19X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2X
IX
IX
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
IX
1X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
•
1.3-6
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-2 Revenue
European CAD/CAM Market
Millions of Dollars
2800-1
2400
2000-^
1600
1200-i
800
400
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-7
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-3
European CAD/CAM Market
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
198S
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CA6li
aessitts
•atsaadt
s==s=
=====
=3=as
=====
B:III±S
1,410
22,749
27,103
1,711
31,093
35,928
2,070
41,481
46,644
2,490
54,552
59,585
2,991
72,123
76,405
21X
SOX
26%
1,164
19,547
23,663
#
Source: Detaquest
June 1986
•
1.3-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-2 Shipments
European CAD/CAM Market
Workstation Shipments
60000
72000
64000
56000-
48000 -
40000
32000
24000
16000-
8000
1985
1986
1987
1983
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
#
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-9
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-3
European CAD/CAM Market Shares
1985
Prime
2.4%
Matra Datavlslon
2.4%
?^ty
2.4%
Mentor
2.6%
Racai-Redac
2.8%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-10
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-4
European CAD/CAM Market Shares—1985
IBM
CoInputervision
Intergraph
Applicon
CIS
Cat ma
Matra Datavision
Racal-Redac
Mentor
McAuto
PriIne
Daisy
Pafec
Ferranti Infographics
Control Data
Valid Logic
MDSI
Siemens
Silvar-Lisco
Robo Systems
Syscan
EXAPT
Auto-Trol
Catay Germany
Olivetti
Hewlett-Packard
Scientific Calculations
Autodesk
Marconi-CAE
Futurenet
Skok
Synercom
SDRC
Holguin
Gerber Systems
Cimlinc
Gerber Scientific
Bruning Cad
Tektronix
Telesis
Other Europe
All Companies
Revenue
share
198
110
92
50
40
39
36
35
31
28
28
27
24
24
22
20
20
19
17
16
15
13
12
11
11
11
8
7
6
6
6
6
4
3
2
2
161
17%
9%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
14%
1,164
100%
urce: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-11
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-4
European CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Application
Mechanical
^ a
1985
AEC
Mapping
EDA
10
i i i l PCB
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-12
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-5
#
European CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
=====
=====
=====
=S===
=====
1,410
22,749
27,103
1,711
31.093
35,928
2.070
41.481
46,644
2,490
54,552
59,585
2,991
72,123
76,405
21%
30%
26%
1,054
18,536
21.605
1,265
25.978
29.039
1,512
35.172
37.956
1,805
47,831
50,045
20%
34%
28%
20%
12%
11%
1986
=a==s
All Applications
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1.164
19,547
23,663
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Uorlcstations
713
871
11,107
14,300
12,510
15.456
AEG
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
•
Mapping
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
144
173
208
250
301
363
4,475
5,063
4,067
4,776
4.834
5,734
5,670
6.744
6,679
7,791
7,769
8,702
62
767
81
864
103
970
47
182
372
1,097
1,351
1.632
156
127
1,170
1,986
1,341
2,251
27%
49%
43%
EDA
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
106
126
153
188
228
271
2,424
2,422
3,241
3,245
3.906
3.912
4.900
4,907
6,212
6,218
7,985
7.987
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
37
213
237
43
345
381
54
534
562
73
797
821
1,155
1,173
21%
27%
27%
IC
143
102
1.665
1.677
31%
51%
48%
PCS
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
116
135
161
190
220
254
1,146
1,271
1,819
2,149
2.420
2.765
3,167
3,502
4,165
4.461
5.532
5.743
17%
37%
35%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-13
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-6
European CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Percent of Total)
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
61%
57%
60%
62%
55%
57%
62%
60%
60%
61%
63%
62%
61%
64%
64%
60%
66%
65%
12%
23%
21%
12%
18%
18%
12%
16%
16%
12%
14%
14%
12%
12%
13%
12%
11%
11%
4%
1%
0%
4%
3%
1%
5%
3%
3%
5%
2%
3%
5%
2%
3%
5%
2%
3%
9%
12%
10%
9%
14%
12%
9%
13%
11%
9%
12%
11%
9%
11%
10%
9%
11%
10%
3%
1%
1%
3%
2%
1%
3%
2%
2%
4%
2%
2%
4%
2%
2%
5%
2%
2%
10%
6%
5%
10%
8%
8%
9%
8%
8%
9%
8%
8%
9%
8%
7%
8%
8%
8%
AEC
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Mapping
Revenue
SysteIns
Workstations
EDA
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
IC
Revenue
SysteIns
Workstations
PCB
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
•
1.3-14
'
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-5
European CAD/CAM M a r k e t Revenue by Region
1985
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-15
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-7
European CAD/CAM Market by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
All Mechanical
AEC
=== ==========
===
All Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,164
19,701
23,663
United Kingdom
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
252
143
35
5,534
13,102
3,067
1,802
1,718
4,351
France
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
229
144
4,016
6,026
2.298
3,709
27
805
Germany
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
378
235
45
5,654
7,137
3.129
4,333
Italy
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
88
1,303
2,079
56
864
Bennelux Countries
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,302
1,911
Scandanavia
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,529
2.400
Rest of Europe
Revenue
Systems
workstations
28
363
472
78
111
713
144
11,206
14,300
4,480
5,063
Mapping
EDA
IC
PCB
47
203
372
106
2,436
2,422
37
225
237
1,152
1,271
116
8
36
806
26
553
10
60
31
302
3,461
2,484
1,569
5
40
87
23
558
615
8
42
47
22
235
324
1,177
1,391
16
63
100
34
817
782
10
62
74
38
362
397
11
210
342
7
19
23
7
142
122
3
19
19
4
27
41
9
267
360
3
16
30
6
140
168
3
16
IS
8
83
105
1,518
14
251
393
7
25
51
•7
152
189
3
17
16
114
136
17
181
314
2
50
41
1
3
4
3
73
53
1
9
9
3
29
19
1,434
48
760
1.190
70
906
1,161
10 '
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-16
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-6
European CAD/CAM M a r k e t Revenue by Product Type
Millions of Dollars
2400-
2100-
•
Standalone
•
A
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
1800-
1500-
1200-
900f
600-
--i
300-
0-
1985
^
p
1
1
i
1986
1987
19B8
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-17
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-7
European CAD/CAM Market Shipments by Product Type
Workstation Shipments
54000 - ~
48000 -
•
•
Standalone
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
42000.
36000*^
30000
24000
18000-
120O0
6000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-18
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-8
European CAD/CAM Market by Product Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
All Product Types
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,164
19,547
23.663
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
1,410
22,749
27,103
1,711
31,093
35,928
2,070
41,481
46,644
2,490
54,552
59,585
2,991
72,123
76,405
21%
30%
26%
1,059
18,941
18,941
1,577
32,197
32,197
2,224
51,116
51,116
56%
81%
81%
467
896
-10%
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
242
416
673
2,645
2,645
5,605
5,605
10,437
10,437
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
788
790
750
689
594
1,256
5,372
1,428
5,783
1,446
6,281
1,397
6,560
1,214
6,247
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
5,179
134
204
288
321
320
300
15,646
15,646
15,716
15,716
19,210
19,210
21,143
21,143
21,141
21,141
20,110
20,110
-7%
-1%
17%
5%
5%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-19
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-9
European CAD/CAM Market by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
21%
14%
11%
30%
25%
21%
39%
34%
29%
51%
46%
41%
63%
59%
54%
74%
71%
67%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
68%
6%
23%
56%
6%
21%
44%
5%
17%
33%
3%
14%
24%
2%
10%
\6X
P^ersonat Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
12%
80%
66%
14%
69%
17%
62%
53X
1^
51%
45%
13%
39%
35%
10%
28%
26%
58%^
Source:
l'.3-20
1990
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1%
7%
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-8 Revenue
#
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market
Millions of Dollars
2400
2100-
1800
1500
1200
900
%^^
\^
^ ^ ^ ^
kW-^^
fc^^^
600
'V\%>,>,
300-
i^S^N
1985
19S6
1987
1988
1989
S$$;
kXVV^/^
1.x X-y
1ftSt>
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-21
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-10
Far Eastern CAI>/CAM Market
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1985
1986
1987
1988
953
8,262
13,521
1,150
17,370
21,158
1,394
22,488
26,430
1,683
30,475
34,421
1989
2.022
41,085
44,724
1990
CACR
2,426
55,689
58,599
21%
46%
34%
Source:
DATAQUEST
June 1986
•
1.3-22
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-8 Shipments
•
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market
Workstation Shipments
60000-r
54000
48000
42000
36000
30000
W'^Si
'SSSS>
24000
'^V^^i,""''^
§ ^
•',, \ \ v''',
18000
vSM^
ii
tC^iW.
12000
•X^S
6000
C',
Vw.1985
1986
1987
1988
XsS'C-'
1989
'lA.Xxx
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 19S6
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-23
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-9
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market Shares
1985
Nippon Unlvao Kaisha
2.9%
Computervlslon
4.5%
Source: pataquest
June 1986
1.3-24
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-11
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market Shares—1985
IBM
Fuj t tSU
Hitachi
Mitsubishi Electric
NEC
Computervision
Toshiba
Nippon Univac Kaisha
Seiko I&E
Zuken
Mentor
Hitachi Zosen
Scientific Calculations
Mutoh Industries
Sharp System Products
Fuji Xerox
Ashi Optical
Daisy
McAuto
Applicon
Toyoelectric Manufacturing
Valid
Hitachiseiko
Design Automation
Hewlett-Packard
Univac Information Systems
Calma
Uctaida Yoko
Prime
Wacom
Technodia
Control Data
Mitsui Engineering
Yokogawa Hokushin Electric
Century Research Center
AIda Engineering
Graphtec
Otsukashokai
Silvar-Lisco
Toyo Information Systems
Quuat (Shukosha)
liacal-Redac
Gerber Systems
Sumitomo Electric Industries
Hakuto
Other
Total
Revenue
Share
182
84
71
57
55
43
38
27
27
23
21
19
18
16
16
15
14
13
11
11
11
10
9
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
47
953
19.n
8.8X
7.5X
6.OX
5.8X
4.5X
4.OX
2.9X
2.9X
2.4X
2.2X
2.OX
1.9X
1.7X
1.7X
1.5X
1.5X
1.4X
1.1X
1.1X
1.1X
1.1X
.9X
.9X
.8X
.8X
.8X
.7X
.7X
.7X
.7X
.7X
.7X
.6%
.5X
.4X
.4X
.4X
.4X
.4X
.4X
.4X
.2X
.2X
.2X
4.9X
100.OX
Source: 1}ataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-25
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-10
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Application
IVIechanical
K
1
• \ AEC
I Mapping
^
10
1 ^
PCB
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.3-26
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-12
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
=====
=====
=====
=====
=====
=====
=====
953
1,150
17,370
21,158
1,394
22,488
26,430
1.683
30,475
34,421
2,022
41,085
44,724
2,426
55,689
58,599
21%
46%
34%
1,044
17,962
20,980
1,248
25,447
28,205
1,490
36,001
38,172
20%
50%
35%
1985
All Applications
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
8,262
13,521
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
589
719
870
4,771
8,411
10,366
12,910
12,879
15,774
AEC
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
109
131
157
189
228
275
1,403
1,995
2,579
3,242
3,248
3,845
3.811
4,425
4,323
4,958
5,003
5,598
20%
29%
23%
Mapping
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
18
37
162
24
79
234
31
206
373
40
445
573
49
593
681
60
701
750
27%
80%
36%
Revenue
Systems
Workstations-
66
916
953
79
95
117
142
169
2,319
2,320
2,897
2,899
3,577
3,579
4,449
4,451
5,612
5,613
21%
44%
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
35
158
267
41
251
298
51
478
502
69
738
750
96
135
1,085
1,091
1,579
1,583
EDA
'43%
IC
31%
59%
43%
PCB
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
136
977
1.733
158
1,777
2.154
189
223
259
298
2,780
3,037
3,942
4,113
5,186
5,339
6,793
6,884
17%
47%
32%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-27
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-13
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market by Application
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Mechanical
Revenue
Systems
Uorlcstations
62%
58%
62%
62%
60%
61%
62%
57%
60%
62%
59%
61%
62%
62%
63%
61%
65%
65%
AEC
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
11%
17%
15%
11%
15%
15%
11%
14%
15%
11%
13%
13%
11%
11%
11%
11%
9%
10%
Mapping
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
2%
0%
0%
2%
0%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
7%
11%
7%
7%
13%
11%
7%
13%
11%
7%
12%
10%
7%
11%
10%
• 10%
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
4%
2%
2%
4%
1%
1%
4%
2%
2%
4%
2%
2%
5%
3%
2%
6%
3%
3%
14%
12%
13%
14%
10%
10%
14%
12%
11%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
12%
12%
12%
12%
EDA
7%
10%
IC
PCS
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Source:
1.3-28
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-11
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Product Type
Millions of Dollars
/lUUU -
1800-
•
•
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
1600-
1400-
1200-
1000-
800-
i>
*~~———^
600-
400-
A
200-
1f - " " ^
0-
1985
A
A
*
1
1
1
1986
1987
198S
1939
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-29
1.3 Geographical Overview
Figure 1.3-12
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market Shipments by Product Type
Worl<statlon Shipments
50000-
Standalone
45000
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000-
10000-
5000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 198£
1.3-30
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-14
Far Eastern CAD/CAM Market by P r o d u c t Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
All Product Types
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1988
1990
1989
CAGR
953
8,262
13,521
1,150
17,370
21,158
1,394
22,488
26,430
1,683
30,475
34,421
2,022
41,085
44.724
2.426
55.689
58,599
21%
46%
34%
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
128
1,270
1,270
303
4,078
4,078
576
8,736
8,736
929
16,159
16,159
1,365
27,263
27,263
1,898
42.987
42.987
71%
102%
102%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
691
1,487
6.746
688
1,275
5,063
625
1,211
5,153
550
1,108
5,053
457
926
4.566
344
652
3,561
-13%
-15%
-12%
134
5,504
5,504
160
12,017
12,017
192
12,541
12,541
204
13,209
13,209
200
12,896
12,896
185
12.050
12.050
7%
17%
17%
Personal Computer
Revenue
SysteIns
Workstations
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.3-31
1.3 Geographical Overview
Table 1.3-15
F a r Eastern CAD/CAM Market by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
SysteIns
Uorlcstatfons
13%
15%
9%
26%
23%
19%
41%
39%
33%
55%
53%
47%
68%
66%
61%
78%
77%
73%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
73%
18%
50%
60%
7%
24%
45%
5%
19%
33%
4%
15%
23%
2%
10%
14%
1%
6%
Personal Computer
Revenue
SysteIns
Workstations
14%
67%
41%
14%
69%
57%
14%
56%
47%
12%
43%
38%
10%
31%
29%
8%
22%
21%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
13-32
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.4 Product Type Overview
This section refers to Figures 1.4-1 Revenue, 1.4-1 Shipments, 1.4-2, and 1.4-3,
and Tables 1.4-1, 1.4-2, and 1.4-3.
Over the past three years, the CAD/CAM industry has changed from
shared-logic, host-based systems to distributed engineering workstations and
personal computers. This major transition has been smooth for some vendors but
rocky for others, depending upon the vendor's level of commitment toward
adopting a truly distributed product platform and whether or not the vendor was
leading or following this trend. Dataquest believes that seven out of every ten
CAD/CAM workstations sold today are distributed-type products. We expect that
this ratio will grow to more than nine out of ten workstations by 1990.
The personal computer, more specifically the IBM PC AT, has forever altered
the shape of the CAD/CAM industry by bringing the cost of a relatively powerful
workstation down to a level where the masses can enjoy some of the major benefits
of CAD/CAM. We predict, however, that the major CAD/CAM system architecture
of the future will be a combination of the personal computer and the standalone
engineering workstation that we call the personal workstation. The personal
workstation will contain the following system features:
•
UNIX virtual memory operating system
•
Ability to run MS-DOS programs
.•
Integrated bit-mapped graphics with 1-megapixel display
•
Local area network connection (e.g., Ethernet, IBM Token-Ring)
•
Communication gateways (e.g., MAP, 3270, ASCII terminal)
We offer the following observations regarding CAD/CAM systems architectures
worldwide, including host-dependent, standalone, and personal computer systems:
•
As prices continue to fall and the workstation becomes more of a
commodity item, it will become increasingly difficult for the turnkey
vendors to hide profit margins in bundled hardware/software
configurations. We expect that a larger portion of revenue and profits will
begin to be gained from the sales of software and services.
•
Shared-logic, host-dependent systems are rapidly declining in popularity for
use in interactive graphics applications. However, we see a major market
forming for background computing and network servers.
•
The use of application accelerators will increase as more discrete functions
are moved from general-purpose software into application-specific VLSI.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.4-1
1.4 Product Type Overview
COMPETITIVE EVALUATION
Measuring the technical merits of one workstation versus another is a very
difficult task compounded by:
•
The lack of consistent standards
•
A phenomenon known as "vendor specsmanship," whereby the vendor
publishes only those specifications that make its products look good and
ignores those that do not
•
The subjective nature of many features
•
The effect that applications have on weighing the importance of one feature
versus another
A particular case in point is the often-used millions of instructions per second
(MIPS) specifications. With today's simpler computing architectures employing
microprocessor technologies and reduced instruction sets (RISCs), the types of
instructions that these computers are processing differ dramatically from their
mainframe ancestors. For example, a RISC computer that boasts 2 MIPS in
computing performance may produce only a fraction of that speed when running a
particular application due to the complexity of the operating software. Vendors are
also guilty of quoting MIPS ratings on instructions that operate the quickest (such as
an integer add) instead of advertising ratings that indicate performance over an
average range of instructions.
Discussing the implications of quantifying workstation performance is beyond
the scope of this report. Dataquest believes, however, that workstation buyers
generally evaluate four major technical categories when making workstation
purchases:
•
Computing
•
Graphics
•
Networking/interconnectivity
•
Application software
Each of these categories carries with it a unique set of specifications that are
weighted by their particular importance within a given application and/or
environment. As Figure 1.4-2 illustrates, Dataquest believes that the two dominant
environments emerging within the design automation community are for low-end
2-D and high-end 3-D workstations.
1.4-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.4 Product Type Overview
•
Low-end systems typically contain the following features:
•
1 megapixel of display resolution
•
Up to 16 colors
•
600 to 1,000 double-precision whetstone performance
•
Execution and storage of MS-DOS programs
•
Engineering documentation and data entry applications
High-end systems generally contain the following features:
•
Greater than 1 megapixel of display resolution
•
Greater than 256 colors
•
High-performance graphic processors to perform near real-time viewing
and shading functions
•
1,500 to 2,000 double-precision whetstone performance
•
Engineering analysis and simulation applications
Low-End 2-D Environment
The low-end 2-D environment historically has been dominated by personal
computers such as the IBM PC AT. Dataquest believes that the personal computer
era in CAD/C/^M will level off dramatically and eventually give way to the more
powerful, low-cost generation of engineering workstations that were recently
introduced. Our reasoning behind this prediction stems from our survey of
CAD/C/^M end users who suggested that 32-bit, virtual memory, engineering
workstations are more desirable than personal computers. (See Dataquest's
Research Newsletter number 84 entitled, "CAD/CAM End-User Survey.")
However, C/yD/CAM end users also stated that price was ultimately the most
important factor when considering workstation purcliases, with $20,000 being an
important economic target. Now that the new breed of workstations has crossed this
critical price/performance barrier, Dataquest expects rapid expansion of this
market segment. Our findings are further substantiated by some of the large,
low-end workstation purchases recorded by General Motors' EDS, Hughes Aircraft,
and Schlumberger. In each of these instances, the requirement for a 32-bit
engineering workstation costing less than $20,000 was the principal purchasing
criterion. None of these purchasers considered a personal computer because of its
limited computing, graphics, and networking performance.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.4-3
1.4 Product Type Overview
High-End 3-D Environment
The high-end 3-D workstation marketplace is driven by the need to push the
interactivity of engineering applications such as solids modeling, PCB layout, and
finite element modeling as close to real time as possible. While this segment of the
market has experienced a high degree of user benchmark activity, Dataquest finds
that high-end 3-D applications have had very little success within the end-user
community due to the associated performance penalties. Dataquest believes that the
new breed of high-end 3-D workstations that offer 1.5 to 2 times the performance
of a VAX 11/780 at workstation prices will spawn a new awareness that 3-D
capacity can in fact be accomplished productively. The software vendors have
recognized this and have been converting their applications to take advantage of the
3-D display list capability of these new high-end workstations. This software
conversion should allow 3-D applications to run much more efficiently by taking
advantage of high-speed VLSI features on the 3-D machines and by eliminating a
lot of the algorithmic gymnastics that take place when the software aione is left with
the task of simulating the 3-D image.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SEAT
As illustrated in Table 1.4-3, Dataquest believes that the average price per seat
of a turnkey system will drop 14 percent per year through 1990. This rate of decline
is much slower than the 30 percent to 40 percent price declines the CAD/CAM
market has witnessed during the past two years.
It is important to note that Dataquest expects workstation performance to
continue to increase at a faster rate than the rate of price decline. Until now,
CAD/CAM workstation computing performance doubled approximately every two
years. For the balance of this decade, however, Dataquest predicts that workstation
computing performance will double every single year. For example, 2 MIPS
(miliions of instructions per second) computing performance is common in
CAD/CAM workstations in 1986. In 1987, however, we expect computing
performance to jump to 4 MIPS, with an expected rise to 8 MIPS in 1988.
1.4-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
^^
^B
^^
1.4 Product Type Overview
Figure 1.4-1 Revenue
Total CAD/CAM M a r k e t by Product Type
Millions of Dollars
10000-
Standalone
9000
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
8000
7000
6000-
5000-
4000
3000
2000-
1000
1985
1986
1987
WBB
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.4-5
1.4 Product Type Overview
Figure 1.4-1 Shipments
Total CAD/CAM Market by Product Type
Workstation Shipments
210000
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
180000
150000
120000
SOOOO
60000
30000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1S90
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
l:.4-6
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.4 Product Type Overview
Figure 1.4-2
CAD/CAM Workstation Environment
Price
High End
3D
Low End
2D
Performance
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.4-7
1.4 Product Type Overview
Figure 1.4-3
T o t ^ CAD/CAM Market Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
140
120
•,
Standalone
#
Host-Dependent
A-
Personal Computer
100
Sff
«l9r
20jb
1985
1966
1968
1989
1990
Soorce.: ]>alaquest
June 19S6
#
1.4-8
© 1986 l>ataquest Incoiporated fuly
CCIS Markets
1.4 Product Type Overview
Table 1.4-1
Total CAD/CAM M a r k e t by P r o d u c t Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
Total Market
Revenue
. Systems
Workstations
8,624 10,397 12,511
7.116
5.863
4,849
65,212 88.769 118.891 157,873 211,532 283,682
82,056 107.051 139,497 180,471 234,056 304,055
Staixlalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1,066
11.828
11,828
1.812
24.194
24.194
2,947
45,015
45,015
9,328
6,680
4.546
79.711 133,802 210,545
79.711 133,802 210,545
54.3X
77.9%
77.9X
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
3.253
5.395
22.240
3.289
5.939
24,221
3,172
6,077
26,683
2,993
6,002
28.600
2,617
5,297
27,822
2.143
4.120
24.493
-8.OX
-5.2X
1.9%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
529
47.988
47,988
762
58.636
58,636
998
67,799
67,799
1.085
72,160
72.160
1.099
72.432
72,432
1.040
69,017
69.017
14.5%
7.5%
7.5%
SOURCE:
20.9X
34.2X
29.9X
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.4-9
1.4 Product Type Overview
Table 1.4-2
Total CAD/CAM Market by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
Stwidatone
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstatfons
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Uorl(stations
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
22X
18X
14X
31X
27X
23X
41X
38X
32X
53X
SOX
44X
64X
63X
5A
75X
74X
69X
67X
8X
27%
56X
7X
23X
45X
5X
19X
35X
4X
16X
25X
3X
t2X
17X
IX
8X
11X
74X
58X
13X
66X
55X
14X
57X
49X
13X
46X
40X
T1X
34X
31X
8X
24X
23X
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
1.4-10
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.4 Product Type Overview
Table 1.4-3
Total CAD/CAM Market Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
All Product Types
56.0
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
69.1
130.1
20.6
55.7
57.6
111.7
19.2
46.2
50.0
95.1
18.0
AO.O
43.0
34.4
36.8
80.5
16.8
67.3
15.5
29.6
31.5
55.2
14.1
-12%
-15%
-16%
-7%
Source:
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
1.4-11
1.5 Revenue Source
As illustrated in Figure 1.5-1 and Tables 1.5-1 and 1.5-2, Dataquest believes
that hardware (including computers, graphics, and peripherals) accounted for
62 percent of CAD/CAM revenue in 1985. We see hardware revenue falling to
46 percent of the market by 1990, with the balance comprised of software and
service revenue. The implications of this trend are as follows:
•
As hardware prices continue to fall, the turnkey vendors will find it more
difficult to bury profit margins in bundled hardware/software
configurations.
•
Although hardware is declining as a percentage of gross revenue, hardware
revenue is expected to reach $5.8 billion by 1990, up from nearly $3 billion
in 1985.
Personal computer hardware values are expected to rise over the next few
years due to the expected sale of configurations with larger disk and
memory configurations along with higher-performance graphics boards.
•
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.5-1
1.5 Revenue Source
Figure 1.5-1
Total CAD/CAM Market Revenue by Revenue Source
I
I Hardware
1985
\\"%Si Software
l i i l i Service
1990
Source: I>atam>ett
Joite I9g£
1.5-2
1986 Efetaquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
1.5 Revenue Source
Table 1.5-1
Total CAD/CAM Market by Revenue Source
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
sr==
s=rs
3SZ=
s=ss
ss==
All Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
2,996
1,213
639
4,849
3,590
1,521
752
5,863
4,185
2,016
915
7,116
4,791
2,676
1,158
8,624
5,337
3,530
1,530
10,397
5,807
4,611
2,092
12,511
14%
31%
27%
21%
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
541
405
120
1,066
955
652
206
1,812
1,524
1.073
350
2,947
2,273
1,701
572
4,546
3,169
2,587
925
6,680
4,098
3.757
1,473
9,328
50%
56%
65%
54%
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
2,101
643
509
3,253
2,124
633
532
3,289
1,998
628
546
3,172
1,808
620
565
2,993
1,466
567
584
2.617
1,065
479
599
2,143
-13%
-6%
3%
-8%
354
165
10
529
511
236
15
762
663
315
19
998
709
355
21
1.085
702
376
21
1,099
644
375
20
1,040
13%
18%
15%
14%
Personal Conputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1990
====
CAGR
====
Source: Dataquest
Juiie 1986
•
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1.5-3
jl.5 Revenue Source
Table 1.5-2
Total CAD/CAM Market by Revenue Source
(Percent of Total)
1985
A l l Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Coinputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
56%
1990
62X
25X
13X
61X
26X
13X
59X
28X
13X
31X
13X
SIX
34X
1SX
46X
37X
17X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
51X
38X
11%
53X
36X
11X
52X
36X
12X
SOX
37X
13X
47X
39X
14X
44X
40X
16%
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
65X
20X
16X
65X
19X
16X
63X
20X
17X
60X
21X
19X
S6X
22X
22X
SOX
22X
28X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
67X
31X
2X
67X
31X
2X
66X
32X
2X
6SX
33X
2X
64X
34X
2X
62X
36X
2X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
1.5-4
© 1986 Datequest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
The mechanical segment refers to CAD/CAM products that are typically used
to support the design and manufacturing of components and mechanisms. The
users are most often engineers, designers, or draftsmen involved in the design and
documentation process. The following paragraphs give detailed definitions of the
scope of the market comprised of end-user industries and the evolution of major
CAD/CAM applications. Later sections include an Executive Summary, a Market
Overview, a Market Forecast, and an in-depth assessment of emerging technologies.
DEFINITION OF MECHANICAL CAD/CAM MARKET
Dataquest has defined the mechanical CAD/CAM market in terms of the users
of the technology and applications being used. The users are categorized by
industry groupings, with typical products and organizations described. The major
CAD/C/yvl system applications defines a framework that allows a full analysis of
the total CAD/CAM application area.
Refer to the following sections for a detailed definition and analysis of the
mechanical CAD/CAM market:
•
Definition by End-User Industry
•
Definition by Major System Application
Dennition by End-User Industry
The mechanical CAD/CAM market is defined to include all of the
manufacturing industries as shown in Figure 1.
Some of these industries certainly have a stronger need than others, but it is
difficult to find any industry that does not use some mechanical component in its
products or in manufacturing its products. Dataquest uses the U.S. Department of
Commerce's Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes to define the major
industries using mechanical CAD/CAM tools. The top five manufacturing industries
plus the Other group defines the CAD/CAM market. The corresponding industry
and SIC number are aircraft (Code 372), automotive (Code 371), machinery
(Code 35), electrical (Code 36), and fabricated metal (Code 34).
Aircraft
CAD/CAM techniques are ideally suited to the aircraft/aerospace environment.
The large documentation requirements representing thousands of parts and
assemblies are well suited to production by CAD systems. Complex design tasks
are compounded by the proliferation of airframe models and features. In reality,
each plane or vehicle is unique, requiring its own set of documentation for
manufacturing and maintenance. The complete process from conceptual design
through detail design, analysis, test, fixturing, manufacturing, and service/repair
now uses CAD/CAM technology.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.1-1
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
Figure 2.1-1
Mechanical CAD/CAM
Manufacturing Industries
Source: Dataquest
June 198S
2.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
The early stages of conceptual design are aided by solid modeling and realistic
visualization techniques. As the design moves into ttie analysis and detail design
phase, finite element stress analysis becomes important as a design tool.
Manufacturing gets involved designing tooling, fixtures, and processes that
manufacture and bring all the components together in final assembly. Numerical
control part programming has been one of the strongest CAM development areas in
the aerospace industry. Computer-aided testing and quality assurance play an
important function in guaranteeing that the original design was accurately built. The
use of computer-aided tools does not end here. Computer graphics, technical
publication, and artificial intelligence procedures are being combined into
interactive, portable service, diagnostic, and repair workstations. The ongoing
service and repair operations are becoming more efficient as a result.
The above brief examples are typical of the aggressive use of C/UD/CAM
techniques in the aerospace design and manufacturing operation. Because
CAD/CAM techniques are used from start to finish, many benefits are realized by
sharing data from one step to the next. Reduced errors, faster response to changes,
and better control are some of the significant benefits.
Automotive
The benefits of proven CAD/CAM applications are found in abundance in the
automotive industry. Similar to the aerospace industry, large documentation
requirements and complex design tasks are common. A very competitive worldwide
market, governmental controls, and rapidly increasing complexity in technology and
material requirements are making the automotive industry more dependent on
CAD/CAM tools.
A description of the automotive design process starts with the stylist. The
computer-aided engineering tools for vehicle concept and styling development are
becoming well developed. Conceptual simulation and analysis software is being
combined with visualization software to produce photographic-quality images of
rendered surfaces. Animation techniques are being used to add motion to the
realistic images. Engineering, advertising, and styling all can benefit from the
moving simulations. But much more than pretty pictures are developed. Using the
resulting mathematical data base, the same models can be tested for driver
visibility, packaging, and, with more detail, for simulation of ride and performance
characteristics.
When the body, power train, and chassis design groups get involved, the new
car project is scheduled for production in as little as 18 months. The detailed
design progresses, working from the outer surface toward the center of the fire
wall. The 6,000 or more parts that make up a typical automobile are detailed,
assembled, and verified. If designed properly, the doors will open, the lights will
light, and the wheels will not fall off after the first chuckhole.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.1-3
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
The manufacturing process is a complex choreography of purchased and
manufactured parts with thousands of time-dependent milestones, resulting in the
right part being at the right place for assembly. Manufacturing engineering is
responsible for production tooling, including design for dies, molds, and sheet
metal parts.
The manufacturing and assembly group is responsible for assembly layout, tool
fabrication, and programming for the decision support and control computer
systems. Numerical control part programming, material resource planning,
computer-aided processing, robot programming, and process control programming
are just a few of the supporting functions of this group.
Machinery
The products produced in the general machinery industry start with the most
common parts such as nuts, screws, and washers. These are combined with cast,
molded, and other machined components to make up the next tier of finished
goods, which include saws, polishers, sprayers, drills, and mixers.
The mechanical CAD/CAM applications used in the aerospace and automotive
industries are typical of those used in the general machinery industry but at a
higher level of complexity. The manufacturing tolerances in the general machinery
industries are not as stringent, the materials used are not as exotic, and the overall
level of product sophistication is not as complex. There are exceptions, however, in
medical, food, and other processing applications. The CAD/CAM tools are involved
in all aspects of product, assembly, and component design as well as in
manufacturing support for tooling, fixtures, and processes.
Electrical
Electrical and electronic machinery includes almost everything that runs on
electricity, such as appliances, cooking equipment, sewing machines, lighting
fixtures, radios, television sets, and X-ray equipment.
The mechanical CAD/C/\M applications required to design, document, and
manufacture these products cover the full spectrum of today's capabilities.
Castings, forgings, and sheet metal enclosures are typical components in appliances
and cooking equipment. Many molded cabinets, housings, and piece parts are used
in consumer electronics and commercial equipment.
The added complication of designing products with both mechanical and
electronic components requires close attention to the design goal and coordination
throughout the manufacturing process. The design and manufacture of the
electronic components is discussed in detail in later sections of the Market and
Analysis binder.
The combined electromechanical market is targeted for an in-depth research
project later this year.
2.1-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
Fabricated Metal
Typical products produced in this industry include industrial fasteners, screw
machine parts, valves, pipe fittings, and ball/roller bearings. Castings, forgings,
extrusions, and bar stock are turned, coined, swaged, bent, and twisted to make
these parts.
The CAD tools used to support the design and manufacture of these products
range from basic drafting-only systems to full CAD/CAM and computer-aided
engineering systems. Use of computerized tools has led to greater efficiency in
small lot production. Numerical control (NC) machine tools can effectively produce
one-off prototype parts or small production runs of up to several hundred parts.
The increased precision in NC manufacturing has allowed some valve
manufacturers to upgrade the pressure and temperature specifications of their
valves. The use of CAD/CAM tools allows quicker response to customer requests,
giving the small manufacturer a significant advantage.
Other
The Other manufacturing industries comprise a great variety of sometimes large
industries that have varying levels of experience and success in using CAD/CAM
technology. As a group, the number of users is fairly large, but the CAD/CAM
applications used are extremely diverse. A brief list of manufacturing industries in
this group will illustrate the issue. These industries include: food, apparel, lumber
products, furniture, bathroom fixtures, railroad equipment, instruments, watches,
games, and caskets. The opportunity for niche product development in this group is
large. Vendors interested in developing effective tools for these markets must have
extensive user application experience to guarantee useful results.
Definition by Major System Application
Dataquest uses four common system usage groups for comparison, aiding in
the organization of information in each of the CAD/CAM application segments.
These groups are documentation, design, analysis, and manufacturing, as shown in
Figure 2.
Documentation
Considering the diversity of complex machinery that has been designed and
tediously drafted with pen and paper, it is no surprise that a step forward in
automating the drafting process has been received with open arms. The drafting
process is defined by simulating the manual process of generating layout, detail,
and assembly drawings in a CAD system. Each line, circle, and piece of text is
created and placed with the appropriate system command, allowing the user to
build the drawing. Advantages inherent in CAD technology allow rapid revision of
the Stored data with fast duplication and overlay techniques.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.1-5
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
Figure 2.1-2
Mechanical CAD/CAM
Markets—Manufacturing Industries
/
y^
y
/
Documentation
Design
Analysis
Manufacturing
Major Applications
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
2.1-6
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
The major documentation, drafting, and schematic applications are:
•
Detail drafting
•
Layout
•
Assembly/subassembly
•
Charts
•
Hydraulic and pneumatic schematics
•
Technical illustration/documentation/publication
Design
The general trend in computer graphics is toward design simulation. Design in
this context is typically a three-dimensional problem where component parts are fit
together, defining the assembly. The amount of detail in these models varies from a
few lines and circles to very complex assemblies with every surface and corner
precisely defined.
An essential system function is the ability to view the design from any
orientation. Combining the ability to model part geometry with the viewing
functions gives the designer a powerful design tool. The common user expectation
is to be able to produce a better design using CAD but with the same time
investment.
The major design applications are:
•
Part modeling
•
Visualization
•
Assembly design and verification
•
Clearance and assembly studies
•
Linkage/mechanism design
Analysis
Analysis is entwined in the design process. Making sure all the parts fit
together and meet the design goals is the most common type of analysis. As the
modeling process has improved, so have the analytical tools to evaluate the models.
An example is finite element mesh modeling and analysis. This general technique
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.1-7
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
has at its roots a divide-and-conquer procedure for simplifying the calculation
required to evaluate thermal or structural properties of the design. These
calculations can be performed for two- or three-dimensional analysis. By defining
the conditions of the structure where it attaches to other components, the design
can be twisted, pulled, and shaken, all using computer simulation. The tedious
effort of setting up a typical test and waiting for tfie results has been shortened
from days to hours. Unfortunately, hours can seem like days when the axles are
breaking off your trucks and you do not know why. If the analysis could be done in
minutes, more analyses would be done earlier in the design process, improving
product reliability.
Major analysis applications include:
•
Mass properties
•
Component/assembly deformation and stress
•
Thermal
•
Structural
•
Vibration
•
Magnetics
•
Dynamic
•
Fatigue
•
Composite materials
Manufacturing
In many respects, the applications and benefits of using computer-aided
drafting, design, and analysis all apply to the manufacturing operation. Sharing the
product design data base is a good start in improving the operation, but it is just the
beginning. Many drawings are generated for production equipment construction and
documentation. Tools and fixtures need to be designed or redesigned for the next
product revision. The full range of simulation and analysis tools are valuable in
Optimizing the manufacturing process. Part geometry is being used to define the
tool cutting path on a numerically controlled mill, iathe, drill, or other machine
tool. Robotic work cell simulation is a major CAM application in development. In
general, the use of CAM in manufacturing has the biggest potential for productivity
gains, resulting in improved profitability for the user company.
2.1-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.1 Mechanical Definitions
Major manufacturing CAD/C/^M applications are divided into two groups:
manufacturing engineering and process simulation/interface.
Manufacturing engineering includes:
•
Fixture and tool design
•
Sheet metal development
•
Part processing
•
Quality control
•
Group technology (classification and coding)
Process simulation includes:
•
Numerical-controlled machine tool programming (DNC and CNC)
•
Nesting and flame cutting
•
Tube bending
•
Coordinate measuring machine
•
Robotics (machine loading, assembly, and spot welding)
•
Material-handling systems
•
Programmable controllers
Other important computer applications are in use in the manufacturing
environment but are not included in the CAD/C/^M evaluation. These other
applications are:
•
Manufacturing resource planning
•
Production and inventory control
•
Shop floor control
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.1-9
2.2 Mechanical Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the mechanical application segment.
•
Mechanical C/UD/CAM revenue was $2,677 million in 1985 and is forecast
to grow to $3,226 million in 1986 and to $6,760 million in 1990.
•
The estimated total number of mechanical CAD/CAM workstation units
shipped in 1985 was 40,635. Dataquest forecasts that 53,568 units will be
shipped in 1986 and 176,265 units in 1990.
•
Dataquest forecasts that workstation units in the mechanical CAD/CAM
market will grow at 34 percent CAGR for the next five years.
•
The personal computer has grown from a minimal workstation share in
1982 to represent more than 56 percent of the workstations shipped in
1985.
•
The average mechanical workstation price dropped to $68,100 in 1985, and
is projected to drop to $58,400 in 1986 and to $27,300 in 1987.
•
The predominance of drafting as an application of the low-end CAD
product will fade as higher-performance/low-cost processors become
available and as users demand the full repertoire of application software.
•
The desktop environment is being viewed by vendors as the prime market
for attracting the masses to CAD/CAM products. High user acceptance of
the total solution will require full applications support, networking, and
easy-to-use, reliable products.
•
Some of the fastest application growth areas in the next two years will be:
—
Computer-aided engineering for mechanical applications, including
design simulation, solid modeling, and finite element analysis
—
The manufacturing environment; well-integrated manufacturing
software products to become more widespread as C/^D/CAM moves
into the shop area
—
The combined electrical and mechanical application; vendors who
have historically focused on the mechanical or electrical applications
to provide integrated packages
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.2-1
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
HISTORY
The early and mid-1960s saw the emergence of computer graphics as a
practical tool. Some of the earliest graphics work was developed for the military
using mainframe computers. Massachusetts Institute of Technology was an early
contributor, providing a training ground for pioneers in this field such as S. Coons,
I. Sutherland, and S. Chasen. In the late 1960s, the basic elements of computer,
display, and software came together to form the first commercial turnkey CAD
systems. The first systems were focused on printed circuit layout and were only
able to draw straight horizontal and vertical lines. The users immediately began
asking for more features. An early enhancement, two-dimensional drafting, made
CAD practical for mechanical applications. Computervision and Applicon were
formed in 1969 to supply these primitive two-dimensional CAD tools.
The early 1970s witnessed essential development for the mechanical
applications, as P. Bezier, H. Gouraud, E. Catmull, and W. Gordon completed their
basic research in curve surface definition and display. By the mid-1970s, this
research was being used in the first three-dimensionai design systems. The designer
could now string wires and some surfaces in three dimensions. Fontaine
Richardson, Patrick Hanratty, Gerry Devere, and David Albert are some of the key
figures who took the research of tlie day and turned it into usable CAD products.
Industry giants such as Lockheed, Matra, and General Motors early understood
the value of computer graphics and developed internal systems that are still in use
today. In fact, some of their original products are the basis of today's successful
commercial CAD products such as CADAM and Euclid. The 500 plus companies
that currently make up the CAD/CAM industry accumulated more tlian $4.8 billion
in revenue in 1985.
THE PRESENT
Today's CAD/CAM market has emerged as an essential ingredient in the
worldwide trend toward factory automation. For a better understanding of the
progress of this trend in four major mechanical industries, refer to Table 2.3-1.
This table defines the size and growth rate of each major industry.
Work Environment
The current CAD/C/\M work environment in each of the major SIC code areas
is very similar, but with some unique variations. Drafting standards are well
defined for all industry segments. Design tasks for a car door and a cargo bay hatch
are quite similar, depending on size or performance characteristics. Unique design
and manufacturing problems do occur, but the CAD/CAM systems are generally
flexible enough to be custom tailored for the job.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.3-1
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
Table 2.3-1
Analysis and Forecast of Major Industries Using Mechanical CAD/CAM
1982
1984
1986*
CAGR
1984-1986
66,466
$
4,242
$
15,335
$
$ 685,000
$ 80,050
$ 4,664
$ 15,105
$713,000
$ 96,582
$ 6,028
$ 19,310
$759,000
9.8%
13.7%
13.1%
3.2%
$ 112,270
$ 22.713
10,352
$
$ 615,200
$178,517
$ 43,240
$ 10,510
$784,700
$160,366
$ 38,445
$ 12,554
$712,100
(5.2%)
(5.7%)
9.3%
(4.7%)
$ 92,026
$
7,734
$ 21,571
$1,011,300
$ 94,059
$ 10,680
$ 16,331
$956,000
$ 94,962
$ 13,318
$ 16,664
$934,100
11.7%
1.0%
$ 23,651
1,501
$
2,487
$
$ 299,700
$ 30,890
$
980
$ 2,220
$321,900
$ 31,198
$ 2,505
$ 2,649
$327,000
0.5%
59.9%
9.2%
0.8%
Aerospace Industry
SIC 372, 376
Value of Shipments
Value of Imports
Value of Ejqjorts
Total Employment
Motor Vehicle Composite
SIC 37Ix
Value of Shipments
Value of Imports
Value of Exports
Total Employment
Composite Metal Working, General
and Special Industrial
Machinery
S I C 35XX
Value of Shipments
Value of Imports
Value of Exports
Total Employment
0.5%
(1.2%)
Composite General Components
and Stampings
SIC 34XX
Value of Shipments
Value of Imports
Value of Exports
Total Employment
•* Forecast based on IT A forecast
Source: U.S. Industrial Outlook—1986
International Trade Administration (ITA)
2.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
Today's complex product design and manufacturing environment requires a
Staff with many talents. Mechanisms, electronics, hydraulics, and pneumatics often
are used in the same design. New materials and manufacturing processes are being
developed to lower the cost and maintain acceptable performance. More stringent
legislation for noise or emission pollution is creating many design challenges.
The present manufacturing environment is tough, with shorter product life
cycles and a rapidly growing list of competitors from all over the worid. The best
chance for success is based on building the right products at the right time, and
operating more efficiently than the other competitors. More and more product
design and manufacturing groups are turning to CAD/CAM to help make it happen,
and many success stories have been documented. It is no longer a question of will
CAD/C/\M work, but of which system should be used and how the operation will
improve as a result.
System Usage
Dataquest uses four common system usage groups for comparison: drafting,
design, analysis, and manufacturing. A 1985 Dataquest user survey determined the
percentage split of system use for mechanical applications:
•
Drafting and schematic—52 percent
•
Design—31 percent
•
/^alysis—7 percent
•
Manufacturing—10 percent
(See CAD/CAM Industry Service Research Newsletter No. 84, entitled
"1985 CAD/CAM User Survey Results," for a detailed analysis of our survey.)
The following paragraphs present a brief analysis of each usage group.
Documentation
The importance of the engineering document cannot be over emphasized. It
represents the legal description and bible of knowledge that fully specifies the
product and every manufacturing process required to produce it. Each department
in a manufacturing organization receives some form of drawing, puts in its value
added in the form of detail or specifications, and passes on the package of
documents to the next group. The sketch of a new product or product revision starts
the process. The owner manual or installation guide shipped with the product is the
end of the process. A design revision starts another cascade of documents through
the organization.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.3-3
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
The CAD vendors have gone to considerable lengths to develop effective
systems to expedite the design-to-drawing generation process. At least 50 percent
of the design work is done in conjunction with the drawing. This is true in the
aerospace, automotive, machinery, and fabrication industries.
Continued dependence on the drawing is a strong factor in the dramatic
increase in low-cost drafting CAD systems. As users become more experienced,
their need for more functionality also increases. This applies to enhanced drafting
operation and performance as well as expansion into other CAD/CAM applications.
Design
Product design falls into two fairly distinct groups—new product development
and existing product enhancement. The essence of the difference suggests starting
with a clean sheet of paper versus enhancing an existing design that is already in
production. CAD tools are equally suited for either activity. In fact, a real
opportunity exists to improve design process productivity by sharing the CAD data
base between new product design and existing product development.
The design process begins with a problem. The solution can take a few
moments or years, with the real possibility of no practical solution being found. For
an experienced designer it sometimes seems all that is required is the back of an
envelope and a tough problem to start the creative juices flowing. The "ah-ha," or
moment of inspiration, begins the design process. The primary benefit of the CAD
system provides an efficient means of documenting the design process and assists
in proving the concept.
Analysis
/Analysis starts shortly after the moment of inspiration, which occurs in the
design process. Analysis begins with what-if scenarios and continues with an
impressive array of analytical tools that simulate everything from the weight and
color of a part to its modal signature as it vibrates.
Low-cost and high-performance general-purpose computers are ideally suited to
complement the design process with responsive and affordable analysis processing.
The list of analysis applications is getting longer and now includes stress, thermal,
mechanism, dynamic, electromagnetic, and mass properties. The major analysis
applications are utilized to simulate the product in its as-used environment and as it
progresses through the various stages of manufacturing. Analytical tools are useful
in every stage of the product design and manufacturing processes.
The combination of CAD/CAM tools for design and analysis is named
Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE). This was the topic of a recent
Dataquest Research Newsletter (number 1986-11) and of a panel discussion at the
1986 annual conference. Please refer to the newsietter for more information on this
application area.
2.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
Manufacturing
The manufacturing process takes the result of design and analysis and turns it
into chips and pallets of finished parts waiting for assembly. A large support team
of professionals keeps the operation running smoothly, including tool makers,
maintenance, and quality-assurance personnel. The automotive industry has been
the most aggressive in replacing the blue-collar worker with flexible machining
centers and automated material-handling equipment, but competitive pressures are
now forcing the factory automation issues in all major industries. CAD/CAM
systems are an integral part of this operation.
Simulation of numerically controlled machine tools, which generates the
program to control the actual manufacturing process, is one of the most common
CAM applications. The use of C/^/CAM tools in manufacturing is much more
than numerical control (NC) part programming. Jigs, fixtures, tooling, test
equipment,
material
handling,
packaging,
and
dozens
of
other
manufacturing-related tasks use CAD/C/^M.
The combination of computer graphics with data for shop control, schedules,
material resource planning, and bill of materials generation is having a positive
effect on the smooth operation on the shop floor. A significant opportunity is
available for the vendors to provide integrated systems for these applications.
TRENDS
Applications
•
Dataquest believes that drafting will remain the major selling application in
C/UD/C/VM for the next few years. This is due to the following:
—
The low-cost drafting-only system is functional.
—
It is easy to justify.
—
It is not threatening.
•
Design tools are being developed that meet the real needs of the designer.
The trends in this evolution include three-dimensional modeling of any
realizable object using realistic imaging and conceptual design techniques.
The resulting accurate data base supports the foUow-on manufacturing and
documentation applications. Rule-based design tools are also being
developed to aid the designer in similar part design and design procedures.
•
Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE) is the fastest growing
segment in mechanical applications. Products from turnkey and
software-only vendors are being developed to meet the conceptual and
product design and analysis needs of the engineer and designer.
#
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.3-5
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
•
The systems discussed above will provide a solid foundation for a
staggering array of applications software. The major CAD/C/^M
applications have been implemented. These are being enhanced and are
becoming easier to use and more productive. New applications will address
more extensive design and simulation tasks.
•
Full application integration will be provided to minimize the system
overhead and improve user interface. Customization by the user will be
necessary in order to take full advantage of these tools.
•
Major factory automation projects are under way in all major
manufacturing industries. The full implementation of computer-aided
technology in the manufacturing environment is moving from the test tube
to the real world. The automotive industry is the leader in developing and
implementing robotics, flexible machining centers, just-in-time plant
inventory, and shop floor communications data format.
Technology
•
The total system package price will continue in a downward trend as
component prices fall. Value-added hardware and applications software
will tend to keep system prices above the commodity level.
•
The trend in personal computer-based products to upgrade to
higher-performance processors, memory, storage devices, and display is
causing an increase in average system configuration. At the same time, the
drop in component prices is resulting in a near constant package price for a
PC-based system.
•
The need to rapidly communicate accurate engineering information among
many organizational groups is driving the development of low-cost local
area networks. The hardware is available but the software lacks the ability
to provide full system security and management control functions.
•
Integrated systems using personal computers, standalone workstations, and
mainframe computers are evolving, taking advantage of the best each has
to offer.
•
Developments in computational resources, including application-specific
integrated circuits, are raising performance to previously dreamed-of
levels.
•
The performance of graphic display is improving, and at a lower package
price. Application-Specific integrated circuits and low-cost display memory
are supporting this evolution.
2.3-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
User Expectations
The easy-to-use user interface typical of PC-based software is creating an
expectation in the minds of the users. Software should be easy to use with
minimal training required and built-in tutorial functions.
The level of integration is expected to improve at the data base, user
interface, application, and system management levels.
The diversity of hardware options is increasing in primary system
components as well as in peripherals. Computational servers, laser
printers, and scanners are a few new-generation peripheral options.
The functional level of the system is improving in all price groups for all
applications.
System reliability and support are improving as vendors respond to the
basic expectations of the users.
Many of the graduating engineers and technicians have used CAD/CAM
technology in school and are demanding these tools when they enter the job
market.
Users are more interested in becoming system integrators, pulling together
systems with off-the-shelf hardware and software. If the price premium for
a package deal or turnkey solution is not too high, the benefits of a
single-source supplier are still desirable.
DRIVING ISSUES
Industries
•
The general trend in 1986 in all major mechanical industry sectors is
toward increased levels of product shipments with continued growth in the
next few years.
•
Non-U.S. competition is growing, focusing added pressure on the critical
long-term issues of cost control, improved product quality, and products
that offer enhanced customer appeal.
•
The use of new materials is forcing the need for higher levels of design,
analysis, and manufacturing development.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.3-7
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
CAD/CAM Technology
•
CAD/C/y/I technology has been identified as an integral component in the
modernization of manufacturing industries.
•
The aggressive marketing and product development of IBM is designed to
maintain its world leadership position as the number one computer
supplier. This is forcing the software developers to make IBM one of the
computing options.
•
Integration of application software is a strong driving factor in CAD/CAM
system development; i.e., hardware and software must function together as
a unified system.
•
Improved user interfaces must allow effective system utilization that
logically supports the complete design and manufacturing process.
•
Continued enhancements in the semiconductor industry are improving the
performance of computers and related peripherals. The price/performance
ratio is expected to continue to improve by a factor of two every other year
for the foreseeable future. (This may be a bit conservative in the short
term.)
•
Standards in graphics displays, data base transfer formats, and
communications protocol are being used. Large users are demanding that
vendors support standards allowing communication among different vendor
systems.
•
More emphasis is being placed on the availability of management tools for
the control and manipulation of information systems.
•
Company-to-company graphics data transfer is becoming a common
requirement, particularly in the automotive sector.
OPPORTUNITIES
At the Low End
•
Low-cost standalone or low-end networked systems for text and part-time
graphics operations
•
Limited applications software filling niche markets with low-cost products
(e.g., low-resolution technical publications)
2.3-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.3 Mechanical Market Overview
•
Add-on hardware to enhance special-purpose applications (e.g., a scanner
for raster image input)
•
Interactive drafting systems with interfaces to higher-end products
(provides upward growth path)
•
Innovative training techniques for low-cost systems
At the Midpoint
•
Department-oriented general-purpose systems that do the whole job with
higher performance
•
Networks with low-end systems taking advantage of the best features of
both types of systems
•
Special-purpose processors for applications that require significant
computing horsepower (e.g., analysis, real-time simulation, and image
processing)
•
New input devices to improve user interface to high-performance systems
At the High End
•
Corporate-oriented large systems (500 plus users) with complex data base
requirements and diverse applications software
•
Applications requiring massive data base access and manipulation
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.3-9
2.4.1 Total Mechanical CAD/CAM
This section covers the total mechanical CAD/CAM market for all regions
and product types. Figures 2.4.1-1 Revenue and 2.4.1-1 Shipments and
Table 2.4.1-1 reflect these data.
•
The mechanical segment was an estimated $2,677 million in 1985 and is
forecast to grow to $6,760 million in 1990, at a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 20 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will increase 22 percent in 1986, reaching
$3,266 million.
•
Workstation shipments in 1985 were an estimated 40,635 units; shipments
are expected to reach 176,265 units in 1990, growing at a 34 percent
CAGR.
•
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.1-1
2.4.1 Total Mechanical CAD/CAM
•
Figure 2,4.1-1 Revenue
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
7000 -
6300-
5600-
4900
SS^
^v'%\\
\XX*'A
S^^N
Vv-^^
4200
3500
.XX
2800
\.
2100
iX^^X''^
^
.,v.^v<
'V S, X T., 1
> ^
hX-s^^
s
1400
V*"XXA
^w
;w"^
'
700
vX\.'",.%^
1985
1986
1987
1989
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
2.4.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.1 Total Mechanical CAD/CAM
Figure 2.4.1-1 Shipments
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
180000
160000-
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
1985
1986
1987
1986
19S9
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.1-3
2.4.1 Total Mechanical CAD/CAM
Table 2.4.1-1
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Total Applications
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
2,677
29,632
40,635
3,266
42,232
53,568
3,952
59,457
71,909
4,742
83,537
96,607
5,664
118,473
130,282
6.760
167,133
176.265
20.4%
41.3%
34.IX
T o t a l Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Source:
2.4.1-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
2.4.2 Mechanical Market Shares
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the mechanical
market share distribution. Figure 2.4.2-1 and Table 2.4.2-1 reflect these data.
•
IBM and Computervision continued to dominate the mechanical market in
1985 with 29.3 percent and 11.4 percent market shares, respectively,
worldwide.
•
IBM gets over 90 percent of its CAD/CAM revenue from the mechanical
application area.
•
Computervision generated a surprising 55 percent of its revenue from
European sales and support.
•
Of the top three vendors, only Intergraph managed to gain market share in
1985. Mechanical applications now represent over a third of the revenue of
the company.
•
McDonnell Douglas is continuing to be aggressive in going after
mechanical CAD/CAM.
•
Prime almost doubled its revenue in 1985; its market share rose to
4.2 percent.
•
Applicon also gained share in 1985, but this was due to the joining of
Applicon and MDSI at midyear. MDSI represented about $45 million of the
Applicon total.
•
Control Data more than doubled its 1984 revenue, rising to 3.5 percent
market share in 1985.
•
Calma has lost market share, moving from fifth place in 1984 to eighth in
1985.
•
Hitachi is a new name on the top 10 list. It has been doing very well selling
its products only in Japan.
•
Hewlett-Packard is also new on the top 10 list.
•
The Other 116 mechanical CAD/C/yVI vendors represented 29.4 percent of
the market.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4-1
2.4.2 Mechanical Market Shares
Figure 2.4.2-1
Mechanical Market Share—Worldwide
1985
Hewlett-Packard
1.9%
HJtaclil
2.2%
Control Data
3.5%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
2.4-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.2 Mechanical Market Shares
t
Table 2.4.2-1
Mechanical Market Share—Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars)
COMPANY
IBM
ConIputervision
Intergraph
McAuto
Prime
Applicon
Control Data
Catma
Hewlett-Packard
Matra Datavision
Auto-Trot
Cimlinc
Ferranti
Grafteic
Gerlser Systems
MacNeal Schuendler
SDRC
Holguin-CAD
Autodesk
Other Computer Companies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey and Software
All Companies
1985
REVENUE
1985
SHARE
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
%
$
$
$
$
29.3%
11.4%
6.2%
5.2%
4.2%
4.1%
3.5%
2.6%
1.9%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
783
304
165
139
112
111
93
70
50
35
33
32
26
24
t
22
% 20
$
13
$
13
$
11
$
75
$ 133
$ 344
$
70
$ 2,677
.9%
.8%
.7%
.5%
.5%
.4%
2.8%
5.0%
12.9%
2.6%
100.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4-3
2.4.3 Mechanical Regions
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the mechanical
market, segmented by region. Figures 2.4.3-1 Revenue and 2.4.3-1 Shipments and
Tables 2.4.3-1 and 2.4.3-2 reflect these data.
•
We estimate that the expected 22 percent growth in revenue from 1985 to
1986 will be evenly distributed over four market regions. Dataquest expects
the Far East region to make a slight gain in market growth at the expense
of the North American and European regions.
•
We expect that 50 percent of the annual revenue and 46 percent of the
system/workstation shipments to be in the United States in 1986.
•
The growing number of non-U. S. vendors are expected to do well in their
home markets, displacing U.S. products.
•
Domestic vendors will require a concerted effort and strategic alliances
with local distributors in Europe and Japan to maintain a significant market
share. The next two years will provide the largest opportunity window to
gain market recognition and share.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.3-1
2.4.3 Meciianrcal Regions
Figure 2.4.3-1 Revenue
Mechanical CA1>/CAM by Region
MWions of DoUars
North America
32e^
2^10
Europe
•
Far East
X
ROW
24m
200Q
1600
1200-
800
I
400-
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June l^iaA
2.4.3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.3 Mechanical Regions
Figure 2.4.3-1 Shipments
Mechanical CAI>/CAM by Region
Workstation Shipments
90000
North America
Europe
80000-
•
Far East
X
ROW
70000-
60000
50000
40000-
#
30000
20000
10000-
0)|<—
1985
riir
1986
-X1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.3-3
2.4.3 Mechanical Regions
Table 2.4.3-1
Mechanical CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
ssss
Total NarIcet
Revenue
Systems
WorIcstations
2,677
29,632
40,635
3,266
42,232
53,568
3,952
59,457
71,909
4.742
83.537
96,607
5,664
118,473
130,282
6,760
167,133
176,265
20.4X
41.3X
34.IX
Nor til America
Revertue
Systems
Workstations
1,334
13.583
17,606
1,626
18,834
24,506
1,967
27,053
33,365
2,359
38,055
44.873
2,817
55,682
61.803
3,361
80,346
84.983
20.3X
42.7X
37.0X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
713
11,107
14.300
871
12,510
15.456
1.054
18,536
21,605
1,265
25,978
29,039
1,512
35,172
37,956
1,805
47.831
50.045
20.4X
33.9X
28.5X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
589
4.771
8.411
719
10,366
12.910
870
12.879
15.774
1.044
17.962
20.980
1.248
25.447
28.205
1.490
36.001
38.172
20.4X
49.8X
35.3X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
41
170
318
50
522
697
61
988
1.165
73
1.542
1.714
87
2,172
2,319
104
2,954
3,066
20.4X
76.9X
57.3X
Source:
Dataquest
June 1986
2.4.3-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.3 Mechanical Regions
Table 2.4.3-2
Mechanical CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
50%
46%
43X
50X
45X
46X
50X
46X
46X
50X
46X
46X
50X
47X
47X
SOX
48X
48X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Uorkstations
27X
37%
35X
27X
30X
29X
27X
31X
30X
27X
31X
30X
27X
30X
29X
27X
29X
28X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
22X
16X
21X
22X
25X
24X
22X
22X
22X
22X
22X
22X
22X
21X
22X
22X
22X
22X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2X
IX
IX
2X
IX
IX
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.3-5
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the Mechanical
CAD/CAM market, segmented by product type. Figures 2.4.4-1 Revenue and
2.4.4-1 Shipments and Tables 2.4.4-1 and 2.4.4-2 reflect these data.
•
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in total revenue from
1985 through 1990 is expected to be 20 percent. This growth will take the
$2,677 million in 1985 to $6,760 million in 1990.
•
In the short term, from 1985 to 1986, the growth rate is expected to be
22 percent.
•
System shipments are expected to grow 32 percent from 1985 to 1986 and
at a 41 percent CAGR from 1985 through 1990.
•
The Standalone systems are gaining percentage from both PC and
host-based systems.
•
The growth rate in units shipped for personal computer-based systems will
be 28 percent from 1985 to 1986. This is a dramatic slowdown from the
150 percent growth rates of 1985. The trend is expected to continue with
less than an 11 percent gain from 1987 to 1988. The CAGR for
1985 through 1990 is expected to be 23 percent in revenue and 11 percent
in units shipped.
•
Standalone systems are more dramatic, showing estimated growth from
1985 to 1986 of 134 percent in revenue and 166 percent in units shipped.
The sustained high growth rate from 1987 to 1988 is expected to be a still
significant 76 percent in revenue and 105 percent in unit shipments. This
expected growth will result in the highest CAGR by product type from
1985 through 1990, which is forecast to be 76 percent in revenue and
105 percent in workstations.
•
Host-dependent systems have reached a plateau, holding relatively constant
revenue and unit volume throughout 1987. A rapid decline from there
results in a negative 11 percent CAGR in revenue and a negative 5 percent
in workstation shipments from 1985 through 1990.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.4-1
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
•
The host-dependent products dominated 1985 revenue by a decisive
81 percent. Host-dependent systems are expected to represent the highest
revenue share until 1988, when they wili be overtaken by standalone
systems. The estimated 41 percent share in total revenue in 1988 will be
derived from a small 17 percent of workstation unit sales.
•
Personal computers peaked in 1985 as a percentage of system shipments.
The 76 percent of systems in 1985 will drop to an estimated 23 percent in
1990. Revenue as a percentage of the total industry is expected to peak in
1987 at 15 percent.
•
The growth leader is forecast to be standalone products, representing
11 percent revenue and 12 percent system shipments in 1985. This is
expected to expand to 74 percent revenue and 76 percent system units in
1990.
2.4.4-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated June
CCIS Markets
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
Figure 2.4.4-1 Revenue
Mechanical CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
5000
4500
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
4000
3500-
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.4-3
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
Figure 2.4.4-1 Shipments
Mechanical CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
120000
•
StandaSons
•
Host-Dependent
A
personal Computer
100000
80000
60000
40000
20C00
1966
1987
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
2.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated June
CCIS Markets
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
Table 2.4.4-1
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Application by P r o d u c t Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual of Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2.677
29,632
40,635
3,266
42,232
53,568
3,952
59,457
71,909
5,664
6,760
4.742
83,537 118.473 167,133
96.607 130.282 176,265
20.4X
41.3%
34. IX
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
294
3,524
3,524
689
9,380
9,380
1,280
20,610
20,610
2.172
41.179
41,179
4,988
3.441
76.007 126,642
76,007 126,642
76.2X
104.7%
104.7%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2,161
3,476
14,479
2,178
3,782
15,119
2,096
3,869
16,321
1.945
3.747
16,817
1.603
3.077
14,886
1,191
2,103
IT,235
-11.2%
•9.6%
•4.9%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
221
22,633
22,633
399
29,070
29,070
577
34,978
34,978
625
38,611
38.611
620
39.390
39,390
580
38,388
38,388
21.3%
11.1%
11.1%
1989
CAGR
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.4-5
2.4.4 Mechanical Product Type
Table 2.4.4-2
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
11X
12X
9%
2U
22X
18X
32X
35X
29X
46X
49X
43X
61X
64X
58X
74X
76X
72X
Kost-Depen^nt
Revenue
SysteRS
Uorlcstations
SIX
12X
^X
67X
^
28X
53X
7X
23X
41X
4X
17X
Z8X
1{»
3X
11X
IX
6X
Personal Cotnputer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
8X
76X
56X
12X
69X
54X
15X
59X
A9X
t3X
46X
40X
11X
33X
30X
9X
23X
22X
SOt^CE; Dataquest
June 1986
2-4-4-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated June
CCIS Markets
2.4.5 Mechanical Turnkey Average Prices
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the average price
per seat by product type for the mechanical turnkey segment. Figure 2.4.5-1 and
Table 2.4.5-1 reflect these data.
•
The average price per seat is dropping for all product types. The general
trend in increasing functionality in hardware and software is raising the
value of the average configuration, but not enough to offset the rapid
reduction in prices for hardware components and software.
•
In 1986, the average price per seat is expected to drop 14 percent in
standalone products.
•
From 1985 to 1990, the standalone product has the largest reduction in
average price per seat, estimated at 15 percent.
•
The personal computer-based product is expected to change the least,
dropping only 6 percent over the five-year period from 1985 to 1990.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.5-1
2.4.5 Mechanical Turnkey Average Prices
Figure 2.4.5-1
Mechanical Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
140-
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
100-
80
40
20 j f
0-
tfiSS
1986
1987
1966
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
2.4.5-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.5 Mechanical Turnkey Average Prices
Table 2.4.5-1
Mechanical Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
1985
All Product Types
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
68.1
63.6
136.5
19.7
1986
58.4
56.5
118.9
18.5
1987
46.1
47.5
103.2
17.6
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
39.2
39.9
89.6
16.5
32.8
33.5
77.7
15.4
27.3
28.1
67.5
14.1
-ITX
-15«
-13X
-6X
Source; Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.5-3
2.4.6 Mechanical Revenue Source
•
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the mechanical
market, segmented by source of revenue for each product type. Figures 2.4.6-1
Revenue and 2.4.6-1 Shipments and Tables 2.4.6-1 and 2.4.6-2 reflect these data.
•
Hardware historically has represented the majority of system cost. Li fact,
the cost was artificially higher than necessary to offset the undervalued
software. The current trend toward value pricing and unbundling make
comparisons more realistic.
•
The distribution of hardware revenue varies by processor type. In 1985, the
hardware revenue content has a range of 52 percent for the standalone
system to 71 percent for the personal computer. Overall, 64 percent is the
average.
•
The software content is rising in all categories, with the low point as a
percentage of revenue occurring in 1985.
•
Standalone systems are expected to retain the highest value content in
software, increasing to 41 percent in 1990.
•
Service revenue is relatively constant, with more reliable systems being
serviced by higher-cost, more experienced service personnel.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.6-1
2.4.6 Mechanical Revenue Source
Figure 2.4.6-1 Revenue
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Revenue Source by Product Type
Mifftons of Dollars
3200-
2800
•
Hardware
•
Software
A
Service
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
t98S
1986
1987
1988
1990
Source: Dataqaeit
June 1986
2.4.6-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.4.6 Mechanical Revenue Source
Table 2.4.6-1
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Revenue Source by Product Type
(Millions
All Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Computer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1,714
2,058
579
383
763
445
2,387
1,035
2,688
1.396
2.937
1.876
530
658
852
2,677
3,266
3,952
4,742
5.664
3.138
2.481
1.141
6.760
13%
34%
24%
20%
154
106
34
294
359
250
80
689
654
473
153
1,075
1.615
1.353
2.165
2.043
473
780
1,280
2,172
3.441
4,988
70%
81%
87%
76%
1,328
1,182
390
372
903
334
366
591
251
349
1,945
1.603
1,402
414
345
2.161
158
59
4
221
1,415
405
358
2,178
283
108
8
399
402
366
2.096
405
160
12
577
825
273
432
181
13
625
419
188
13
620
1.191
382
187
12
580
CAGR
-16%
-10%
0%
-11%
19%
26%
21%
21%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
#
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2.4.6-3
2.4.6 Mechanical Revenue Source
Table 2.4.6-2
Mechanical CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Revenue Source by Product TVpe
(Percent of Total)
19ffi
Alt Product Ty|M»s
KardMare
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Karcbmre
Software
Service
Total
Kost-Dependent
HsIrttore
Software
Service
Total
Personal CORiputer
Harctore
Software
Service
Total
(AX
t%6
T987
tW8
1989
1990
22X
t4X
63X
2SX
14X
60X
26X
I3X
57X
29X
14X
S2X
33X
15X
46X
37X
17X
100X
toox
100X
100X
100X
100X
52X
36%
t2X
52X
36X
12X
51X
37X
12X
49X
38X
13X
47X
S9X
UX
43X
41X
t6X
1Q0X
100X
toox
1Q0X
toox
100%
65%
19X
16%
65X
19X
16X
63X
19X
17X
61X
20X
19X
56X
21X
23X
SOX
21X
29%
100%
100X
100X
1QQX
IQQX
100X
71X
27X
2X
71X
27X
2X
1WX
28X
2X
69%
29X
2X
68%
30X
2X
100X
10QX
10C»
1Q(»
7m,
66%
32X
n
\Qax
Source; l>ataq(M»t
iune 1986
2-4.6-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Solid Modeling—
More Than a Pretty Face
Source: Robot from "Brilliance,"
Robert Abel & Associates
Looking at realistic images is the first significant benefit derived from solid
modeling. The images can represent an automobile, an airplane, or, in this case, a
robot model used in a commercial. But, the value of pretty pictures is quickly
overshadowed by the full potential of solid modeling in the manufacturing sector.
Solid modeling is used to build computer models of existing parts for analysis and
redesign, resulting in improved products. New design concepts can be tested in a
fraction of the time that is required using manual methods. Solid modeling
represents the next generation of modeling technology. It has proven to be effective
in several application areas, but the full measure of its benefit will evolve over the
coming decade.
The future of solid modeling depends on its ability to meet the total product
description requirements of the manufacturing industries. The modeling needs vary
by industry but the core issues are the same.
Can solid rnodeling provide a complete part description in a computerized data
base that supports all the applications needed to operate the business? This service
section answers this question by discussing the vendor and user viewpoints, and it
provides insight into the current status of solid modeling. Our detailed forecast and
analysis measures the expected progress of this exciting new technology.
DEFINITION
The first serious question to resolve is: What is solid modeling? Everybody
believes a scale model carved from wood or plastic is in fact a solid model. The
resulting model of the car, boat, building, or structure is a valuable conceptual
design and visualization tool. Unfortunately, the physical model provides little
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-1
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
support for the detail design, documentation, or manufacturing process. Dataquest
believes that solid modeling technology can solve these problems by building a
model that is geometrically complete and provides the foundation to support a full
array of CAD/CAM applications used throughout the design and manufacturing
process. These two issues, completeness and the ability to support CAD/CAM
applications, form the basis for comparison of all solid modelers. Limitations in
either will restrict the utility of the system and the markets that can profitably use
the system.
The next question of definition concerns the content of the electronic data base.
It is physically impossible to store a solid object on a magnetic disk spinning at
3,600 rpm. What is stored obviously is a digital representation of the object or
group of objects. The question then is: What information is required? The answer
varies with the needs of the user and the application. For some, just seeing a
color-shaded image of the new object provides a significant benefit. For others, a
complete part description accurately describing every bump, hole, surface, and
feature is required. This complete geometric part description can be combined with
Other pertinent data to fully describe the manufacturing tolerances, material,
processing, and cost parameters of the object. This implies a further ability to
extract this data for all design, analysis, simulation, manufacturing, documentation,
testing, and verification operations. The key benefit of solid modeling is derived
from sharing a single part representation throughout the design and manufacturing
process. Solid modeling is the first data base format that conceptually can provide
this required level of functionality.
Providing all this in a package that is easy to use, fast, and reliable is the
challenge being addressed by dozens of solid modeling developers. Understanding
how to use these tools effectively as they evolve is the challenge facing the users.
The competitive pressure to accurately design and build better products in a shorter
time frame is driving the user industries toward CAD/CAM technology. Today,
solid modeling is widely believed to be the best fundamental tool for the job.
HISTORY
The modeling process in computer graphics is growing through its third phase.
The first phase began in the mid-1960s as a few straight lines on a storage tube
display. These lines could represent just about anything from the circuit path on a
printed circuit board to the object lines of a drawing. As the two-dimenslonal
elements of lines and curves grew into three-dimensional wire-frame models, the
mid-1970s saw the evolution of the second phase of computer-aided modeling. The
second phase in the modeling process evolved as the design continued to grow in
complexity, representing more and more information about the precise shape, size,
and surface contour of the parts required.
2.5-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Solid modeling represents the third step in the evolution of computer-aided
modeling. All of the edges, surfaces, and holes of an object are knitted together to
form a cohesive whole. The computer can determine the inside of the object from
the outside. Perhaps more importantly, it can automatically trace across the object
and readily find all intersecting surfaces and edges.
In the mid-1970s, various universities and industrial developers began to
develop elements of this new modeling process. The PADL project from the
University of Rochester is typical of some of these early systems. The essence of
the approach uses well-defined, three-dimensional objects as building blocks.
Various sizes of blocks and cylinders are added and subtracted from each other to
form the desired part. This procedure is known as Constructive Solid Geometry
(CSG). The set of primitive objects now includes cones, wedges, and several other
regular-shaped objects. Boolean operators (union, difference, and intersection) and
Other Operators are used to combine the objects. The advantage of this process is
the fast description of the shape of the part and the ease of modification.
Unfortunately, modeling the full range of part shapes is difficult if not impossible.
Cast and forged parts with tapered sides and rounded corners are good examples of
parts extremely difficult to model with the CSG approach.
Another form of solid modeler has evolved, called the Boundary Representation
(B-Rep). In this process, every vertex, edge, and face is explicitly defined. The
connectivity (topology) showing the relationship between each of these elements
provides the glue to turn the list of elements into a geometrically solid object. This
process is inherently more flexible but requires rigorous algorithms to guarantee
the construction of a valid object. However, the easy access to individual surfaces
for sampling or display is an advantage of B-Rep soiid modelers. Other conceptual
approaches have been developed, such as Octree, but have not made significant
impact as commercial systems.
The common expectation of today's solid modelers includes a variety of
primitive objects with construction operations to form any free-form swept or
sculptured shape. Most vendors are meeting this expectation by providing a hybrid
or combination of B-Rep and CSG features. Users require Boolean operators to
quickly join and shape the object, and easy part modification to support design
iteration and revision.
VENDOR PERSPECTIVE
The Check-Off Box
A flurry of solid modeling products was introduced a few years ago that
allowed the vendors to reply affirmatively to the question: Do you have solid
modeling? Heightened media attention suggested the need to ask, even though the
prospect probably did not understand why it was important. Today, a "yes"
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-3
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
response to the question is not enough. The expectations of the potential users have
progressed, looking for a wide range of capabilities. The vendors have risen to the
challenge and are in the process of developing next-generation products that meet
the real needs of the user. Table 2.5-1 lists the solid modeling vendors and products
that Dataquest currently tracks.
Table 2.5-1
Major Solid Modeling Vendors and Products
Company Name
Applicon
Auto-trol Technology Corp.
Automation Technology Products
British Technology Group
CAD AM Inc.
Cadetron
CADCentre
CAEtec Software Inc.
Calma Co.
Catronix Corp.
Cimlink Inc.
Computervlsion Corp.
Control Data Corp.
CSA
Cubicomp Corp.
Daisy
Dassault Systems USA
Evans & Sutherland Computer Co.
Ferranti Infographics
GE-CAE Intemational/SDRC
Gerber Systems Technology Inc.
GMWC
Gould
Graftek
Harris Corp.
IBM
Interactive Computer Modelling Inc.
Intergraph Corp.
Isykon
Manufacturing & Consulting Services
Matra Data vision Inc.
McDonnell Douglas Mfg. Info. Systems
Norsk Data
Pafec Inc.
PDA Engineering
Perspective Design Ltd.
Phoenix Data Systems
Prime Computer Inc.
Sperry Corp.
Swanson Analysis Systems Inc.
Tektronix Inc.
Unicad
2.5-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated Septemb'er
Product Name
Solids Modeling II
Series 7000 Solids Modeling
CIMPLEX
VOLE
Solids Modeler (MAGI)
Cadresolids
PDMS
PRO-SOLID
GEOMOD
CATSOLID
Component Geometry Modeler
MEDUSA (CIS), SOLIDESIGN
ICEM
Solid Modeler
CS-5 PolyCAD 10
Gemsmith
CATIA
ROMULUS
CAM-X ROMULUS
GEOMOD
GST-Solid
RUCAPS
Gemsmith
Solid Modeling System
HarrisCAD
CADAM, CAEDS, CATiA
GMS
Solid Modeler
PROREN
OMNISOLIDS
EUCLID
UNISOLIDS
TECHNOVISION
Boxer
PATRAN II
MicroSolid
Insight
PRIME MEDUSA
CIM/ME SOLID MODELER
ANSYS
PATRAN II
M/P/E (Romulus)
Source: Dataquest
Februarv 1986
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Making It Real
Some of the early product successes such as Geomod from SDRC/GE CAE-I,
Euclid from Matra Datavision, and PADL from the University of Rochester proved
the practical application of solid modeling. Conceptual design with improved
visualization and accurate part properties for weight and mass have been the most
successful application areas. Vendors are hard at work expanding the scope of solid
modeling from a design tool to the basis for a corporate data base. The systems
now in development will be used for everything from early conceptual design to
final production and inspection. A serious effort to understand the scope of this
task elicits respect for the system designers and programmers that are trying to
make it happen.
The current stage in the evolution of systems used for conceptual design is
mechanical computer-aided engineering (MCAE). The MCAE products combine
enhanced modeling with improved analysis functions. On-line engineering reference
documents and a user interface for the engineer are also getting development
attention.
Niche Integration Versus Data Base Integration
Today, each of the top 10 mechanical CAD/CAM vendors has a solid modeling
product. Dozens of others have, or are in the process of developing, their own
products. The approach is different from vendor to vendor, but they fall into two
general groups. The niche vendor approach capitalizes on an opportunity to focus
on a vertical market and provide a high level of integration in a specific application
area. The hope is to attract the user with special requirements, leading to
higher-performance packages that are easier to use.
The system integrator approach is as broad as possible. By providing a
complete package or a solid foundation for the total corporate graphics needs of a
company, the vendor hopes to become the standard graphics tool supplier for the
entire operation. As standards for communication improve, the opportunity for the
system integrators and the niche suppliers to work together will improve as well.
The combined synergy and competitive pressure in this environment will push
product development to high levels in all application areas.
Dataquest believes that the niche developers will lead in developing innovative
solutions in each of their application areas, but that the system integrators will be
close behind taking advantage of any significant development. The major
development areas have been identified as finite element modeling, analysis and
optimization, numerically controlled part programming, drafting/documentation,
and design verification. As market leaders emerge, strategic alliances will be
formed to move the niche solutions toward integration as complete systems. This
process would be aided considerably if standards were in place to define the format
of data to share between unlike systems.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-5
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
TECHNOLOGIES
Millions of dollars are being spent to improve performance, functionality, and
user-interface operations. The following sections discuss the key technology
development areas and identify their major features and current trends.
Modeling
The primary function of solid modeling is to give the user the ability to model
completely any realizable object. Modeling development is being directed toward
solving the deficiencies that limit the classes of parts that can be modeled.
Castings, forgings, and sculptured pieces such as automotive body parts are the
most common problem, areas. Making the part model more complete by more
accurately capturing all relevant information in an easily maintained form is the key
issue.
A current trend in making the systems easier to use is based on a modeling
process that uses more complex primitive shapes called feature-based modeling.
Rather than using blocks, cones, or cylinders to form the part, standard part
features are used as part construction operations. Asking for a drilled, countersunk,
and tapped hole in a single operation is an example of this process. An extension of
this process generates complete standard parts. By filling in questions to a
parametric program, standard gears, pulleys, or brackets can be modeled. Any of
these procedures can be custom tailored for the user company to reflect established
company practices or manufacturing constraints. The rapid construction of standard
part features or standard parts can improve the productivity of the system.
Feature-based modeling is a useful tool in moving solid modeling from a conceptual
design to the mainstream of production design and manufacturing.
Adding tolerance data to the data structure is currently under study.
Longer-term developments center on modeling manufacturing processes and
functional test environments. Accurately modeling processes such as painting,
plating, or heat treatment may or may not be necessary; however, the information
describing the operation must be captured and maintained with the part data base.
The complete part data base will support top-down part planning and bottom-up
Operation planning.
Display
Fast image generation has been an Achilles heel for solid modeling. Rapid
rotation and translation of view and part orientation is essential for interactive
design tasks. Application-specific VLSI and display packaging designed for this
market are just becoming available to speed up this process.
Fortunately, one of the most successful development areas associated with solid
modeling has been display. Image generation has progressed from hours and days
worth of computing time to fractions of a minute. Images include wire-frame,
hidden-line, and shaded images in isometric, perspective, single, or multiple views.
2.5-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.S Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Application-Specific ICs and displays designed for this task are solving the problem.
Display performance is improving by a factor of approximately two each year. In
other words, a 10,000-polygon shaded image could be rotated and redisplayed in
one second a year ago. Now, 20,000 polygons can be processed in the same time,
or 10,000 in half the time. Products released in 1986 are expected to handle
40,000 polygons in a second or less.
Realism in display is available with shadows, multiple colored light sources,
and textures. Longer term, both image quality and speed of generation will
improve, approaching movie film for imaging dynamics and quality. Raster
Technologies, Phoenix Data Systems, General Electric, and Silicon Graphics are
leaders in the technology development of solid modeling display.
User Interfaces
Enhanced user interface options include pop-up menus, icons, command
Strings, and programmable options for repeatable operations. The issue here is not
so much, How is the interface presented?, as, Is it easy to use, self-teaching,
predictable, reliable, and flexible enough to allow the construction of the necessary
detail to accurately define the object for the foUow-on operations? Combining the
functional need with the diversity of potential users and with the possibility of
building in some rule-based logic to speed up the process will keep the system
designers busy for years. User interfaces that are programmable and custom
tailored for the user are rapidly becoming the common expectation.
Data Base
The full potential of solid modeling will not be realized until all applications
can work from the same data base. The data base will include many different types
of information, but there will be one representation for the part description with
other data related to it. This process will accurately capture the engineering data
base, defining the legal part description and archival record. Where-used and
made-from questions can be answered directly. The volume of information
associated with this data base is directly related to the level of design and
manufacturing automation installed at that time.
Application Interfaces
For solid modeling to become fully accepted, it must support all the major
application areas. The primary issue involves taking advantage of the more
complete data base. Solid modeling cannot be treated as an add-on application. It
must be built in to the core system where the application code can depend on the
information being available for use. Virtually any application can be improved and,
in some cases, fully automated if the solid modeling techniques are available.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Daiaquest Incorporated September
2.5-7
2.5 MechanicaI--Solid Modeling
CURRENT UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN
SOLID MODELING
Universities around the world have been working on solid modeling-related
issues for the last fifteen years. Several commercial products have evolved from
university development, with ongoing development in progress at dozens of sites.
Table 2.5-2 lists the names of universities performing solid modeling research and
development activities.
Table 2.5-2
University Research and Development Activity in Solid Modeling
University
Carnegie-Mellon
Computer & Automation
Inst. Budapest
Modbuild
Modeling
Project Name*
Glide, BDS
Modeling
Built^tRobotics
Mosy
Double quadratic surfaces
Cornell University
TIPS
Cranfield Inst, of Tech.
Czech Tech. Univ. Prague
Federal Inst, of Tech. Zurich
Helsinki Univ. Technology
Test Bed
Modeler
JOE/GSFEL
Euklid
GWB
Hokkaido Univ., Japan
IBM U.K. Scientific Centre
Kemforschungszentrum Karlsruhe
Royal Inst, of Tech., Sweden
Leeds University
TIF/GSP
Winsom
Gipsy
GPM
Noname (Boxer)
Loughborough Univ. of Tech.
Newcastle Polytechnic
Norwegian Inst, of
Tech./Sinteff
SWANS (Leeds)
-
Assembled
Plate
Genus
Cadme
Politecnico di Milano
Polytechnic of Central London
Purdue University
RPI
Royal Inst, of Tech. Stockholm
-
Ruhr Univ.-Boehm
Tech. Research Centre Finland
Proren-2
Uniblock
Tech. Univ. Berlin
ASP-GM
Compac
Baustein
Geometrie
Octree
GPM
Motion synthesizer with
movie interface
Auto generation and
verification of NC
AI, process planning
CAM-I AIS, form features
Modeling
Modeling
Modeling, kinematics,
and FEM generation
Geometric simulator
Organic molecule modeling
Application interfaces
Modeling
Auto NC and FEM
generation
CAM applications
Form-feature data base
Assembler welding
Modeling, kinematics,
NC turning
CAD/CAM national project
Modeling, tolerancing, NC
Modeling,
Modeling, ray tracing
Modeling, sheet metal,
robotics, welding, Al
Modeling
Modeling, AI, FEM
generation, kinematics
Modeling
Modeling, interfaces, AI
(Continued)
2.5-8
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Table 2.5-2 (Continued)
University Research and Development Activity in Solid Modeling
University
Univ. of Bath
Raymo
SEDA
Technovision
(Compac)
Vole, Dora
Univ. of Cambridge
Build II
Univ. of East Anglia
Univ. of Edinburgh
Univ. of Karlsruhe
-
Tech. Univ. Delft
Tech. Univ. Denmark
Univ. of Rochester
Robmod
Dicad
Proren
Architectural
System
ASV
PADL II
Univ. of Tokyo
Geomap
Univ. of Michigan
Modeling
Project Name*
Ray tracing
Modeling
Modeling
Raycasling, NC,
modeling
GKS graphics, autofeature
recognition, auto NC, robotics
Solids/sculptured surfaces
Robotics
Modeling, AI
Architectural modeling
Feature extraction
Object modeling
Process modeling
and planning
Free-form shapes, NC
•Project or product names shown in parentheses indicate affiliations between universities and
commerical products.
Source: Dataquest
February 1986
END USERS
The users of solid modeling technology come from virtually all industrial
sectors. Table 2.5-3 indicates the major industrial sectors and the corresponding
primary area of use.
Table 2.5-3
FrimaiT Solid Modeling Applications By Industry
Industry
Aerospace
Automotive
Architectural
Mechanical/Fabrication
Electro/Mechanical
Mapping
Application
Conceptual design—visualization
Design verification—packaging—visualization
VisuaUzation
Packaging—early design—analysis
Packaging
Subterranean modeling
Source: Dataquest
February 19S6
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-9
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Earlier in 1985, Dataquest conducted a user survey of more than 600 user sites.
This survey was designed to define the current status of the use of solid modeling
and the future expectation of use by industry. Based on the total response,
24 percent of the site managers said they were using solid modeling on their
systems. This does not mean that 24 percent of all system hours are spent on solid
modeling, but it does mean that 24 percent of the users have access to solid
modeling if they need it. An additional 39 percent said they plan to use solid
modeling in the future, 21 percent have no plans, and 16 percent do not know. This
sets the ratio of believers to nonbelievers in the current CAD/CAM user base at
2 to 1. The challenge will be to make the systems good enough to attract the
nonbelievers of the current user base and to become the preferred choice of new
CAD/CAM purchasers.
As Figure 2.5-1 indicates, aerospace has the highest level of installations by
site, 39 percent. The high degree of complex new design work and a need for
quality make the solid modeling systems attractive in the aerospace industry.
Architects have the highest ratio of current users who plan to use solid
modeling. This 4.6 to 1 ratio shows a very large sales potential in the short term.
Historically, however, architects have looked for functionality in a low-cost
package, which may slow solid modeling penetration into this market.
Figure 2.5-1
ANALYSIS OF USER SURVEY
SOLID MODELING USE BY INDUSTRIES
PERCENT
LEGEND
^ S
NO
PU\NS
Y///A DON'T KNOW
• 1
HAVE PLANS
USING NOW
TOTAL
AUTO
AERO
MECHlFAB
ARCH
MAPRNG
ELEC/NECH
Source: Dataquest
February 19S6
2.5-10
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Mappers have the smallest level of interest in solid modeling
and those with plans to use it. It is worth noting that this group
example of a vertical niche market. The portion of mapping
three-dimensional data obtained for subterranean modeling,
exploration could benefit from solid modeling.
by current users
provides a good
that works with
mining, or oil
PENETRATION
Determining market penetration requires market sizing and setting the level of
installed product. As always, definitions are necessary to put the data in proper
context. Long term, Dataquest expects the potential solid modeling market to
include 100 percent of mechanical and 80 percent of AEC markets. For this
potential to be realized, solid modeling will be required to support all CAD/CAM
applications as well as or better than they are supported today by wire-frame and
surfacing technology.
Since today's systems use solid modeling as an add-on application or as a core
system function, it is difficult to determine the level of use at the workstation level.
The 1985 Dataquest User Survey was used to set the current level of usage on a
per-site basis. Roughly 25 percent of the CAD/CAM user sites responding to the
1985 Dataquest User Survey were using solid modeling. This corresponds to more
than 17,400 workstations installed worldwide with full or part-time access to solid
modeling in 1984. Dataquest believes that market penetration by site will increase
from approximately 25 percent in 1984, to 53 percent in 1989. An estimated
79 percent unit growth rate in 1985, forecast to increase to 101 percent in 1989, is
responsible for the expected doubling of market penetration on a per site basis.
Penetration considering terminal hours used with direct access to a solid model
data base is growing at a faster rate. The rapid transition of solid modeling as a
core system function is the primary reason for this accelerated growth rate.
USER ISSUES
To live up to its full potential, solid, modeling must pass an impressive set of
hurdles. Functionality, ease of use, and price are some of the most significant
barriers. The following segments discuss these issues from a user perspective,
indicating the needs and level of expectation.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-11
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Functionality
The basic solid modeling procedure uses a variety of standard objects as
primitives, adding or subtracting them from each other to form the desired part.
The current flexibility of this process will allow the precise modeling of fully
machined parts. Increasing the complexity of parts by including castings, forgings,
molded, and formed parts, however, adds a level of difficulty that few solid
modelers can address. Adding the constraint of building these complex models in a
reasonable time frame is another major hurdle.
After building the model, the immediate question arises, "What can be done
with it?" The first useful application is to look at it. The visualization process has
virtually been solved from a functional view. The engineer can be his own artist and
easily produce full color rendered images. Technical illustrations can be displayed
that include line drawings in perspective, with hidden lines removed. Accurate,
detailed sectioned views can be generated for use in design studies or for detail
drawings. Still ahead are improved algorithms and special-purpose hardware that
will produce images faster, with more realism and more user control, but at a lower
cost.
Building two or more parts that fit together adds another dimension of
complexity. Evaluating the nominal fit, mass properties, interferences, and relative
motion in mechanism are all significant elements of required functionality. Each of
these functions is currently available in various forms of utility and ease of use.
Building large assemblies with more than a thousand components is difficult if not
impossible. Complex products or structures can easily have tens of thousands of
parts. Configuration management of these large structures must be available. New
techniques to allow the interactive use of these large data bases is essential.
The classic major application areas of CAD/CAM must be supported by solid
modeling. These are finite element analysis, numerical control part programming,
and documentation. Each area can t£ike advantage of the more complete part model
and produce precise results in a more automated, easier-to-use scenario. Rule-based
procedures will complement the operation, giving the user more time to think about
his problem and less time to worry about the steps he needs to follow to make it
happen.
Dimensional tolerancing associated with solid modeling is a long-term
functionality with exciting potential. Today, edges, holes, and profiles are stored in
computers with one value for each component or feature. Allowing a multiple value
or a range of values for each of these dimensions opens the door for more complete
design evaluation, for manufacturing process optimization, and automated testing
for quality assurance.
2.5-12
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Solid modeling will provide an efficient base for geometric part data in
corporate data bases. Access, format, control, and definition are a few of the major
issues involved in using such a data base. By definition, a corporate data base must
be accessible to anyone with a legitimate need for business information. Controlling
the level of access to each of the functional groups or individuals is a nontrivial
task, but it is essential in order to support the full level of communication
requirements in industrial automation. Today's CAD/CAM products address the
issues of local data bases and local area networks. The tools are just beginning to
be available to put together large corporate data bases.
Standards are an essential ingredient in this scheme. Creating a format to
capture the essence of product design and manufacturing information is the
formidable task of several standards organizations. ISO/TCI84-SC4, CAM-I/AIS,
ANSI/Y14.26, DIN/TAP/VDA, AFNOR-SET, and EEC-ESPRTT are leaders in this
worldwide effort. An in-depth look into this area will be the topic of a future
research newsletter.
Users are asking for complete application integration as one of the most
important components of a solids-based system. Unfortunately, asking ten users for
a functional definition of a well-integrated system gets at least ten answers. From
Dataquest's current point of view, the most important solid modeling applications
are:
•
Finite element mesh generation and analysis
•
Numerical control part programming
•
Drafting and documentation
•
Dimension tolerancing and analysis
•
Design verification by interference detection
•
Visualization
•
Mass properties
As the quality and quantity of part geometry and associated information
improves, thus defining a fully operational data base, the emphasis will focus on
the flow of information and where it is used. Information integration is the primary
goal tying organizations into a single business unit.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-13
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Performance
The essential element of performance is to retain the interactive nature of the
system, independent of the complexity involved. Every system operation, user
interface, functionality, or output process has a performance element. Consider two
highly functional systems, one interactive and responsive, the other batch-oriented
and ponderous. The first is a powerful design tool; the second is a laboratory
curiosity. Blinding speed has been the dream of solid modeling practitioners since
the first Boolean operation. The current rapid progress in computing horsepower
and display processing are having a positive effect. But the general problem is far
from being solved.
A close look at a realistic design problem illustrates the true need. Routing a
hose through the engine compartment of an automobile and designing the necessary
clamps and fittings can take weeks, working from engineering drawings.
Considering the effect of a simple modification to one of the parts or the diversity
of engine options increases the complexity by an order of magnitude. Using a solid
representation of the assembly with interactive performance would shorten the job
to a few hours. Simulating the design process allowing fly-around display
performance with models having thousands of parts is a real expectation of
automotive, aerospace, and heavy industrial designers around the world.
In the example cited above, moving to a new location to see a fresh vantage
point can require minutes or even hours with today's systems. The user needs less
than one-second image redisplay time.
Subtracting one shape from another is a powerful modeling operation. Waiting
more than a few seconds to see the result is frustrating and counterproductive.
Productivity
Productivity can be measured in many ways. Completing a measured task in
half the time or less is understood to be productivity improvement. Completing a
task that has never been done or never been possible to do, is difficult to quantify
for productivity improvement. If the task is important, productivity is infinitely
improved. Solid modeling opens the door for both types of productivity
improvement.
The major ease-of-use issue relates directly to productivity. What percentage of
the user's time is spent thinking about how to make the system do what he wants
versus the time spent working directly on the problem? Dataquest believes that this
ratio needs to be greater than 90 percent.
Assisting design or manufacturing applications is a primary function of solid
modeling. What is the level of application integration? How much time is required
to set up each operation? If the task requires a drawing to be generated, what
convolutions are required to get the correct views on the paper? What happens to
2.5-14
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
OCXS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
the drawing when the design is updated? Who is notified when engineering makes a
change? A system approach to the above will profoundly improve the
communication and productivity of the user's organization.
Ease of Use
Casual users who spend less than two hours per day on a system are the target
for the designers of user interfaces. These users need to have a little handholding
on each excursion into the land of computer-aided design and manufacturing. They
do not want to be slowed down by menu structures or lengthy procedures of small,
"easily understood" command steps in the name of ease of use. On the other hand,
they do need assistance in knowing what to do next. This is fertile ground for real
innovation in system design.
A key element of ease of use is providing a self-teach mode of operation.
Ideally, the system could monitor the progress of the user and make suggestions for
independent study or present tutorial sessions for the learning of new or revised
functions.
Price
The performance and display requirements for most solid modeling
applications force the use of high-end hardware packaging. Typically, the cost per
terminal hour is between $20 and $30. Each potential user will need to evaluate the
current level of functionality for proper application to his problem. For some users,
the potential benefit could be a bargain at $100 per hour. For the rest, a wait of a
year or two will make the difference.
Trends
Exaggerated vendor claims with high-level media coverage have produced
overly optimistic expectations. This will continue due to the extremely competitive
nature of this business and due to misunderstandings in dealing with the complex
issues.
Conceptual design using solid modeling technology has proven to be effective.
Most short-term enhancements will evolve from this foundation.
The availability of the low-cost, high-performance drafting solution is good and
bad for solid modeling developers. The good news is that an expensive system does
not need to be tied up doing drafting. Developing a complete interface between the
solid modeling design system and the high-performance, low-cost drafting system
will solve the drafting application need. The bad news is that the user now has the
choice: Does he buy three or four drafting systems, or does he buy one solidsbased design system? Dataquest estimates that more than half of the total available
mechanical CAD/CAM system hours are used for drafting. The current
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-15
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
users of three-dimensional design
new low-cost systems and free up
the availability of terminal hours,
could slow short-term demand for
systems can off-load their drafting tasks to the
already purchased design stations. Considering
trained users, and established procedures, this
design systems.
MARKET FORECASTS
Dataquest's worldwide solid modeling market forecast is shown in Table 2.5-4.
The revenue total represents software-only revenue for solid modeling packages and
application software that depends on the solid modeling process. This represents a
larger market than the modeling-only market, but more accurately presents the true
impact of this technology on the CAD/CAM industry. Revenue from both bundled
and unbundled suppliers are included in the 1985 analysis, and both sources are
considered in the forecast. The actual units specified represent the number of
systems and workstations required to operate the software. The expected drop in
average system selling prices and the transition of solid modeling from an add-on
application to a core system function have been considered in this forecast.
Table 2.5-4
Forecast Solid Modeling Market by Product Type
Software Only Revenue
(Millions of Dollars and Actual Units)
1985
$97
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
$193
6,290
9,650
$299
13,243
17,366
$455
26,420
30,733
$675
47,313
51,216
47.5%
104.2X
70.3%
Revenue
Systems
Uorkstations
1,331
3,572
$134
2,981
5,616
Standalone
Revenue
Uorkstations
$13
474
$36
$80
1,600
4,141
$169
10,008
$323
21,537
$554
41,219
112.7%
144.2%
$98
$109
1,355
4,715
$122
1,494
5,618
$118
1,419
5,731
$100
1,165
5,068
3.7%
6.8%
10.5%
S7.7
$15.1
3,465
$21.2
4,928
173.1%
208.5%
Host'Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
$84
839
Personal Computer
Revenue
Workstations
3,080
1,197
3,832
$.1
18
$.8
183
$3.5
794
1.740
Source: Dataquest
July 1986
2.5-16
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
The solid modeling market forecast by region is shown in Table 2.5-5.
Table 2.5-5
Solid Modeling Market Forecast
by Region
(Millions of Dollars a n d Actual Units)
Worldwide
Revenue
Systems
Uorkstatforra
North America
Revenue
Systens
Workstations
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
$97
$134
2,981
5,616
$193
6,290
9,650
$299
13,243
17,366
$455
26,420
30,733
$675
47,313
51.216
47.5%
104.2%
70.3%
$75
$107
3,242
4,328
$165
6,786
7,736
$251
13.459
13,599
$370
23,961
22,508
46.8%
103.2%
69.3%
$60
$94
4,277
5,838
$145
8.612
10.423
$216
15,517
17,473
49.6%
107.0%
72.5%
$79
46.0%
102.5%
69.3%
1,331
3,572
S54
692
1,618
1.547
2,538
$29
409
$41
927
1,144
1,820
2,000
3,196
S12
209
746
$16
461
$23
954
1,161
$2
22
64
$2
46
96
$35
$53
1,967
1,982
3.505
3,955
6.203
$3
94
160
$4
197
287
$7
394
508
• 7,10610,362
$10
729
872
CAGR
45.7%
101.7%
68.4%
Source: Dataquest
July 1986
MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS
The three groups of companies profiled in Table 2.5-6 indicate market share
analysis by vendor and number of installed workstations with access to the named
product. The level of utilization of the solid modeling product or module is
expected to range from often to full-time. Group A represents vendors with
established solid modeling products in production in many user organizations.
Group B includes emerging products by well-known vendors or second sources for
third-party software products. Group C includes the newest entries with just
announced products or products in beta test. Some of the latest technology can be
found in these products.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-17
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
Table 2.5-6
SOLID MODELING MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS
Company
Product
Group A
Applicoh
CADCentre
Computervision Corp.
Control Data Corp.
SDRC
IBM
MAGI
Matra Datavision Inc.
McDonnell Douglas Mfg. Info. Systems
Prime Computer
Solids Modeling II
PDMS
MEDUSA (CIS), SOLIDESIGN
ICEM
GEOMOD
CATIA
Synthavision
EUCLID
UNISOLIDS
PRIME MEDUSA
Group B
Auto-trol Technology Corp.
Calma Co.
Evans & Sutherland Computer Co.
Ferranti Infographics
GMWC
IBM
Mantifacmring St. Consulting Services
Series 7000 Solids Modeling
GEOMOD
ROMULUS
CAM-X ROMULUS
RUCAPS
CAEDS
OMNISOLIDS
Group C
Automation Technology Products
British Technology Group
Cimlink Inc.
CAEtec Software Inc.
CAD AM Inc.
Catronix Corp.
Cadetron
Cubicomp Corp.
CSA
Daisy
Gerber Systems Technology Inc.
Graftek
Gould
Harris Corp.
Hewlett-Packard
IBM
Interactive Computer Modeling Inc.
Intergraph Corp.
Isykon
Norsk Data
Pafec Inc.
PDA Engineering
Perspective Design Ltd.
Phoenix Data Systems
Sperry Corp.
Swanson Analysis Systems Inc.
Tektronix Inc.
CIMPLEX
VOLE
Component Geometry Modeller
PRO-SOLID
Solids Modeler (MAGI)
CATSOLID
Cadresolids
CS-5 PolyCAD 10
Solid Modeler
Gemsmith
GST-SoUd
Solid Modeling System
Gemsmith
HarrisCAD
SMD-Solid Modeling Design
CADAM
GMS
Solid Modeler
PROREN
TECHNOVISION
Boxer
PATRAN II
MicroSolid
Insight
CIM/ME SoUd Modeler
ANSYS
PATRAN II
Notes:
Group A contains companies with products installed on more than 500 workstations.
Group B contains companies with products installed on more than 100 workstations.
Group C contains companies with products in development, in beta test, or recently
released with up to 100 workstations installed.
Source:
2.5-18
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
Dataquesc
July 19S6
CCIS Markets
2.5 Mechanical—Solid Modeling
DATAQUEST ANALYSIS
The Promise
The promise of real-world simulation in a computer system conjures visions of
electronic sculpting and forming with the ease of hands on clay. The designer's eye
gazes upon the full color shaded images and sees a new product evolve from an
idea to a tested concept in an afternoon. The promise of products optimized for
performeince and quality will result in improved profitability for the company. The
full realization of this promise will revolutionize the industrial sector.
The Wait
Remarkable progress has been made in turning promise into reality. Niche
markets have demonstrated many of the concepts, proving their feasibility.
Conceptual design has been the most successful niche market, proving the effective
combination of solid modeling and analysis. Close integration with other design and
manufacturing applications are in development. The future of solid modeling is
directly dependent upon the successful implementation of the fully integrated
system; the add-on approach will not serve the real needs of the user. The
application packages must be able to depend on the availability of solid modeling
information to reach the next plateau of system performance and functionality.
The Winners
The person, group, department, division, and/or company that understands the
effective use of solids-based CAD/CAM will have a basic competitive advantage
over the nonusers. Products that are produced from CAD/CAM systems based on
solid modeling and on the application packages that take full advantage of the
technology will be more competitive, more reliable, less costly, and more
profitable. Solid modeling is making the mechanical CAD/CAM business exciting
again.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.5-19
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
MCAE-KEY TO
HIGHER
CORPORATE
PROFITABILITY
Corporate
Pro^ifQloility
I 1
Source: DATAQUEST
August 1986
INTRODUCTION
Mechanical computer-aided engineering (MCAE) is moving into center stage as
a main character in the evolution of CAD/CAM. Esoteric analysis and mediocre
modeling methods are evolving toward highly functional engineering tools, using
the latest in high-performance graphics display and computation. Because MCAE
technology is changing the way that the world designs its products, it must be
considered by every major manufacturing corporation. The ability of a company to
remain profitable will depend more and more on its ability to effectively use MCAE
technology. MCAE is a major key to higher corporate profitability.
The purpose of this service section is to provide a background of information
describing the history and expected evolution of this important and growing
segment of the mechanical CAD/CAM application. The market forecast is given
with the supporting significant trends and assumptions. A perspective on driving
issues is presented with analysis. Highlights from the section with an overall
analysis are found in the concluding Dataquest analysis. Please review the following
definitions to confirm the scope of this analysis.
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-1
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
DEFINITION
Mechanical computer-aided engineering (MCAE) has a broad range of
definitions, depending on the mechanical application and type of user. A full
understanding of the MCAE process should consider all software packages that an
engineer or designer would likely incorporate in the everyday use of his
workstation. Spreadsheets, word processors, and electronic mail are a few of the
major applications outside of engineering graphics that are commonly required to
improve the productivity of the designer or engineer.
In general, the largest MCAE effort is directed toward product design, but an
important and growing application group includes use of MCAE tools for
manufacturing support in the form of design and analysis for tooling, molds and
dies, fixtures, material handling equipment, or packaging. The MCAE application
in this analysis is limited to the computer graphics tools that have been developed
to aid the product design and analysis process, separate from documentation or
manufacturing tasks. Software for supporting administration or management tasks
is not included.
The design and analysis activities supporting the product design and analysis
process exist in two major areas: conceptual design and detail product design, more
commonly referred to as computer-aided design (CAD). The functional
requirements of conceptual design and detail product design are alike, with growing
similarity. The need to share information back and forth between these operations
is pushing the requirements even closer. This trend in evolution of common
interface, sharing of data, and functional commonalty is the basis for combining the
products and markets of conceptual design and CAD, calling the result mechanical
computer-aided engineering.
DRIVING FACTORS
Early Design Optimization
The design engineer is the primary individual affecting the design process from
early conceptual proposal throughout production of detailed plans ready for transfer
to manufacturing. This process of design evolves through many stages, depending
on product complexity. A common thread is evident across many industries. As the
first 5 percent of time and dollars are spent in the product development process,
85 percent of the total life-cycle costs are committed. In other words, the most
critical product design decisions are made during the earliest stage of design effort.
This data was reported from British aerospace and has been echoed as typical from
many manufacturing operations. Figure 2.6-1 illustrates this trend in cost
commitment in the product development process.
2.6-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Figure 2.6-1
Cost Profile Of Development Process
Product Life-Cycle Cost
ComITiltted
Cost
Development Time and
Cost—As Spent
Time
Source: SDRC
Dataquest
August 1986
The two biggest problems with this traditional approach to product
development are the following:
•
The greatest opportunity to affect the design is given up after expending
only 5 percent of design effort.
•
Because of the analysis and test activities that take place later in the
process, major design problems often do not show up until later; by then it
may be too late to implement an optimal design change.
Cost of Engineering Change
Another way of visualizing this commitment to cost over time is to consider the
estimated cost of a design change at different stages in the product life cycle. The
following breakdown illustrates approximate costs for engineering changes at each
stage:
Cost of an engineering change:
•
In drawing board stage-—$1
•
In design checking—$10
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-3
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
•
In process planning—$100
•
In manufacturing engineering—$1,000
•
In final production—$10,000
•
After field failure—$100,000 or more
The real objective of MCAE was succinctly given by Brad Morley, Vice
President of Product Development at SDRC, during the 1986 Dataquest Lidustry
Conference. "The real objective of MC/iE," said Mr. Morley, "is in providing
technology to the design engineer up front in the product development process
when there is the greatest opportunity to affect the product design, while, at the
same time, providing tools which allow for the effective evaluation of many
different design concepts during the early stages of product development when the
cost per change is least expensive."
Implementation Cost
The above issues of early design optimization and cost of engineering change
have always existed. Another limiting factor in the expansion of MCAE is directly
related to high cost of implementation. Low-cost systems will fuel growth of MCAE
because the largest market is comprised of casual users with less sophisticated
requirements. Higher-performance systems will also lower the effective cost,
putting more powerful systems in the hands of the experienced user.
Access
The issue of access is critical to the future of MCAE and CAD/CAM in general.
Every time an interface is created between manual methods and automation, an
inefficiency is introduced. Hopefully, the islands of automation more than
compensate for the overhead of a partially automated process. The complete
benefit of design and manufacturing automation cannot be realized until everyone
with a need has ready access to a workstation. MCAE can be seen as an enabling
technology automating a large and important segment of the overall manufacturing
process.
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
The design and analysis activities associated with MCAE have evolved from
two distinct approaches with very different software functionality and different
typical users. The common company requirements of design verification and
analysis are driving the development of both approaches toward a similar
2.6-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
functionality and a larger target market. Recently a third development path has
surfaced with a viable success opportunity.
Evolution of MCAE from Turnkey Vendors
The first step in MCAE development came as an outgrowth of computer- aided
design and drafting, or CAD. In this context, MCAE is design and analysis
primarily by 3-D, wireframe modeling techniques but includes 2-D modeling and
3-D surfacing modeling for design and analysis. The early market share leaders in
CAD/CAM—such as Computervision, Applicon, Calma, Autotrol, McDonnell
Douglas, and Cadam—are good examples of vendors with wireframe-based MCAE
tools. A Dataquest end-user survey indicates that a majority of current design and
analysis activities are accomplished with these tools.
In general, the CAD approach has evolved from early drafting applications and,
as a result, has retained a detail design focus. The strengths of this focus provide
robust component design and analysis with an emphasis on proper fit of mating
surfaces in assemblies. Typically, analysis ranges from simple clearance
measurement between two parts in an assembly to kinematic evaluations of
assemblies.
The modeling function to support CAD design and analysis activity is evolving
toward solid modeling implemented as a core system function. The effects of this
more complete modeling tool will enhance the performance, ease of use, and range
of effective applications as solid modeling product developments are turned into
effective tools.
Evolution of MCAE from Advanced Analytical Software Vendors
The second path of MCAE development started in component design analysis
with strong dependence on finite-element techniques. MacNeal-Schwendler, PDA
Engineering, SDRC, and Swanson Analysis are good examples of the early leaders
in finite-element modeling and analysis (FEM/FEA). Part analysis after failure in
the field was the most typical use of early FEM/FEA software. As batch mode
processing and tedious digitizing input processing gave way to more automated
operation, the design analysis tools gained wider acceptance. An increasing volume
of analysis was performed before the actual part or assembly was constructed. The
time saved in finding a major problem at this early stage of product development
was found to contribute sizable savings in time and expenses. As conceptual design
improved in performance and price, it became a proven, useful analytical tool.
The need to improve the modeling function to support the analysis operation
has promoted the use of 3-D modeling techniques, with solid modeling becoming
the preferred modeling method. Solid modeling includes the opportunity to
automate the finite-element meshing operation, optimizing the design with recursive
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-5
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
analysis/modification. As with the turnkey vendors, solid modeling is becoming the
modeling technique of choice.
The Latest Approach—MCAE as the Engineer's Tool Box
Most recent MCAE developments have taken a new path. The target market is
focused on the casual user as engineer or designer. Electronic reference handbooks,
sketch-mode data entry, solid modeling, design analysis, and project management
tools are mixed together in a variety of cost/performance packages. Several
companies have released products or will release products in the near future using
these features combined with established modeling and analysis functions. Aries
and Cognition are notable vendors of products aimed at the user with full-time
custody but part-time operation of MCAE.
Artificial intelligence, computational, and data base servers are playing an
important role in improving the usability and performance of the part-time MCAE
resource. The vendor move to capture the engineer's desktop will proceed along the
price/performance battle line well into the 1990s.
VENDOR PERSPECTIVE
MCAE Vendors—Who Are They?
Depending on the marketing focus of the vendor, some may or may not believe
that they are involved in the MCAE market. As always, definitions are everything in
sizing the market and measuring the major players. The Dataquest definition states,
"If a system can perform design and/or analysis of mechanical components, it can
qualify as having an MCAE functionality." With this definition in mind, an
evaluation can be made of the more than 500 worldwide CAD/CAM vendors to
determine the population of MCAE vendors. The list developed from the Dataquest
Who's Who in CAD/CAM data base is shown in Table 2.6-1. More than 100 MCAE
vendors are listed, along with an indication of product features.
The top ten MCAE vendors have been evaluated, with the results presented in
the market share analysis section. The mechanical turnkey CAD/CAM vendors
dominated the list, taicing six of the top ten positions. Software-only vendors
focusing on design and analysis applications comprised the remaining four
positions. The "Other" group that makes up only 10 percent of the MCAE market
is comprised of a long list of vendors.
2.6-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-1
Worldwide MCAE Vendor and Feature Matrix
SURFACES
VENDOR NAIi4E
4-D GRAPHICS, INC.
ALGOR INTERACTIVE SYSTEMS, INC
AMERICAN COMPUTERS k ENGINEERS. INC
ANDROMEDA SYSTEMS, INC.
APRLICON
ARIES TECHNOLOGY
ASAHI OPTICAL CO., LTD.
AUTO-TROL TECHNOLOGY CORP.
AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS
BRIGHAM YOUNG UNIVERSITY.
BROOKS SCIENTIFIC
CADAM. INC.
CADCENTRE LTD.
CADETRON, INC.
CALMA CO.
CAV CORP.
CELESTIAL SOFTWARE, INC
CIMLINC, INC
CISIGRAPH
COADE
COGNITION, I N C
COMPUTERVISION CORP.
CONTROL DATA CORP.
COUNTING HOUSE COMPUTER SYSTEMS LTD.
CUBICOMP CORP.
CYMBOL CYBERNETICS CORP.
DAKOTA CADWORKS
DASSAULT SYSTEMES
DELTACAM SYSTEMS LTD.
DYNACOMP, I N C
ENERTRONICS RESEARCH, INC
ENGINEERING COMPUTER SERVICES
ENGINEERING MECHANICS RESEARCH
ENGINEERING METHODS, INC
ENGINEERING SYSTEMS CORP.
EVANS Ic SUTHERLAND COMPUTER CORP.
FERRANTI INFOGRAPHICS LTD.
FUJITSU, LTD.
GERBER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY, INC
GRAFTEK
H.G. ENGINEERING LTD.
HAKUTO CO., LTD.
HARRIS CORP.
HEWLETT-PACKARD CO.
HITACHI ZOSEN INFO. SYSTEMS CO.
HITACHI. LTD.
HONEYWELL INFORMATION SYSTEMS
IBM
ICAT
INNOVATIVE COMPUTER-AIDED TECH, INC
INTERACTIVE COMPUTER MODELLING, INC
INTERGRAPH CORP.
INTERNATIONAL COMPUTERS LTD.
ISYKON SOFTWARE GMBH
KANEMATSU ELECTRONICS, LTD.
KINTECH, INC
KONGSBERG
MODELING FEM/FEA K UJEMAT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
(Continued)
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-7
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-1 (Continued)
Worldwide MCAE Vendor and Feature Matrix
VENDOR
NAME
MACNEAL-SCHWENOLER CORP.
MAGI, CAD/CAM DIVISION
MANUFACTURING T CONSULTING SERVICES
MARC SOFTWARE INTERNATIONAL, INC
MARUBENI HYTECH CO., LTD.
MATRA OATAVISION, INC
MCCLINTOCK CORP.
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS MFG. INFO SYSTEMS
MERLIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC
MICRO AIDED ENGINEERING
MICRO CONTROL SYSTEMS
MICROCAO LTD.
MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP.
MITSUI ENGINEERING I: SHIP. CORP.
MOHANGO, INC
MUTOH INDUSTRIES, LTD.
NEC CORP.
NESTLER ELECTRONICS GMBH
NIHON DIGITAL EQUIPMENT CORP.
NIPPON UNIVAC KAISHA, LTD.
NORSK TECHNOVISION (DIETZ)
NUMBER CRUNCHING MICROSYSTEMS, INC
PACE SYSTEMS, INC
PAFEC ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS
PDA ENGINEERING
PISCES INTERNATIONAL CO.
PM INTERNATIONAL
PRIME COMPUTER JAPAN, LTD
PRIME COMPUTER, INC
RIKEI CORP.
ROBCAD U.S.A.
SEIKO INSTRUMENTS Ic ELEC . LTD.
SHAPE DATA LTD.
SIEMENS AG
SPERRY CORP.
STRESS ANALYSIS ASSOCIATES. INC
STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS RESEARCH CORP.
STRUCTURAL RESEARCH k ANALYSIS CORP.
SUMISHO ELECTRONICS CO.
SUMMIT CAD CORP.
SWANSON ANALYSIS SYSTEMS, INC
TASVIR CORP.
TEKTRONIX, INC
TELEMECANIQUE
TOSHIBA CORP.
TOYO INFORMATION SYSTEMS. LTD.
UNICAO. INC
UNITED INFORMATION SERVICES. INC
UNIVERSAL INTERGRAPHIX CORP.
YOKOGAWA HEWLETT-PACKARD. LTD.
YOKOGAWA HOKUSHIN ELECTRIC CORP.
ZUKEN. INC
2.6-8
3-D WIREFRAME
SURFACES
SOLIDS
MODELING FEM/FEA KINEMATICS
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
•X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
x'
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
X
X
X
X
X
Source: DATAOUEST
August 1986
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
The Development Path
Conceptual design and detail product design are evolving into a cohesive
evolutionary direction for M C / ^ . Specifically, Dataquest expects MCAE to form
the backbone of manufacturing corporate data bases by developing the primary
CAD/CAM tool to create and update engineering information. Within this
framework, a great variety of vendor offerings will be derived from the combination
of target markets as defined by industry and user, with hardware and software
products in several price/performance packages. A prevailing hypothesis in the
industry expects every engineer, designer, and technician to have an engineering
workstation installed on his or her desk. Vendors are trying to develop the right
combination of tools to gain maximum acceptance on the desktop.
Integration—Now or Later?
If a group of users is asked to list the top five areas of concern, the first or
second issue listed is usually integration. A reasonable second question, then, is:
"What do you mean by integration?" If there are 50 people in the group, you will
most likely get 50 different answers. A typical response will include phrases like
common data base, uniform user interface, and upgradability. A pragmatic
respondent would ask first: "Can I get my job done?" The second question would
be: "What is the effort required?" This ease-of-use and functionality resolution
determines the suitability of all MCAE tools to be used by the target market.
Integration can and should be evaluated at the user, group, and corporate levels.
For each member of a well-integrated system, the questions are the same: "Can I
do the job, and is it worth the effort?"
MCAE has focused on the design and analysis task, bringing a closely
integrated tool to a wide variety of potential users. The type of user in each target
market is driving MCAE development as much as any other single factor. The
esoteric specialty MCAE tools developed for Ph.D.s in crucial tasks differ
significantly from the part-time design aid for the designer or technician.
Looking beyond MCAE, integration of MCAE tools must be closely allied with
the Other major CAD/CAM functions of documentation and manufacturing. The full
benefit of CAD/CAM will not be realized until a fully integrated solution can be
implemented with complete access by all involved. The implication here predicts
CAD/CAM access to become as common as talking on the telephone. MCAE in this
context will meet the total design and analysis requirements of the user, group, and
corporation.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-9
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
TECHNOLOGIES
Virtually all technologies important to the CAD/CAM industry are having an
impact on MCAE. Hardware improvements are raising performance and lowering
price on the full range of processor types. Display technology is resulting in
fixed-configuration price reductions in the range of 15 percent per year. Highperformance display of realistic images is finding widespread application as
simulation activity increases. Software enhancements are opening up new
applications with easier-to-use interfaces. Overall, the systems resulting from the
rapid advances in each of the above enabling technologies can potentially change
the way the world designs its products.
Modeling
The first step in any design and analysis task requires the construction of some
kind of computer graphics model. There are three basic forms using 2-D, 3-D
wireframe/surfacing, and solid modeling construction techniques. Each has inherent
advantages in ease of use and speed. Since the vast majority of the world's products
have been designed on pieces of paper, it is easy to believe that today's
high-performance 2-D drawing systems can be effective design tools. The 3-D
design systems developed since the mid-1970s have proven the concept and value
of design in a simulated 3-D space. Solid modeling has taken over as the modeling
technique of choice if 3-D modeling is required. As the dropping price/performance
curve brings high-performance systems within the price range of the buyer, systems
based on solid modeling will proliferate. Every major CAD/CAM and MCAE
vendor has solid-modeling-based products in a current product offering or in
development.
Any limitation in modeling will directly limit the range or class of products that
can be effectively designed or analyzed with that tool. Many 2-D systems have
reached functional equivalence with manual drafting methods, meeting all
engineering drawing standards. The limitations remaining are inherent to the 2-D
representation, which is primarily one of interpretation. Considering 3-D modeling,
it is interesting to observe that not a single vendor has made the claim of having a
solid modeler that can precisely model all parts and assemblies commonly found in
industry.
Analysis
The Status of design evaluation can be illustrated by considering that the largest
drawing has been made in a graphics system, but the largest design or analysis
problem is still orders of magnitude away from realization. This premise indicates a
Strong appetite for systems able to handle much larger problems with faster
response times. The expected, more robust operation can also handle more detail in
the analysis, potentially improving the quality of the design and reducing the skill
2.6-10
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
level of the operator to set up the problem. In general, the analysis function is
becoming easier to use with an application interface that more closely speaks the
language of the end-user application. Presenting a menu of material choices rather
than just prompting for a material density value illustrates the trend in improving
ease of use. Automatically preparing a design model for stress analysis using
material and boundary condition information derived from the model is a more
beneficial illustration.
The MCAE evolution can be viewed from several vantage points. The novice or
casual-user approach is being addressed by the blending of engineering sketching,
engineering handbook reference, and product design procedures into an easy-to-use
package. The result is aimed at the engineer or designer with unpretentious design
and analysis requirements who has a small amount of time to learn or relearn the
use of the system.
The midrange user is typically concerned with complete product design from
concept to component detail. Verification of the fit and function of the assembly is
a common requirement with mass property and kinematic studies included. This
mainstream application segment has been addressed by the 3-D wireframe
CAD/CAM systems with reasonable success.
At the high end, the experts are willing to put up with just about any convoluted
interface or procedure as long as it gets the job done. Casual or part-time users with
less than optimal experience and training can easily get bogged down trying to solve
some of the more complex problems with little probability of reaching a correct
result. Finite-element modeling and analysis (FEM/FEA) programs are prime
examples of this analytical approach. Fortunately, all of the major FEM/FEA
vendors are hard at work improving the user interface, adding error detection, and
enhancing analytical applications to reduce the operational overhead. All computer
types from personal computers to supercomputers are being used effectively.
New Development Areas
Virtually every advancement in computing hardware can be utilized in MCAE.
From application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) to plug-in boards to super
computers, almost every hardware technology and packaging scheme is being used
to improve performance and lower price.
Processors
Engineering workstations are evolving quickly from a marginal computing
resource to a 5-MIP-i- processor with very attractive pricing. The supercomputer is
evolving, increasing the practical limits of problem solving for aerodynamic, fluid
flow, and weather simulations. Processors used as network servers are improving
the performance levels of groups of workstations requiring nominal investments.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-11
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Display
The expectation of real-time simulation is driving display technology. An
interesting observation finds that the pressure to develop an ultrafast display
operation is difficult to justify from the standpoint of just a quicker picture maker.
The prestige of owning and developing the fastest display in town seems to be a
significant incentive. The users want it, but they don't seem willing to pay extra for
it. The developers are spending millions in VLSI development to make it work.
Dataquest believes that a strong opportunity exists for an MCAE product optimized
for a highly interactive environment. Once users have access to a fully operational
system with a user interface optimized for fast interaction, they will never go back
to the old way of doing business.
Optimization
The closer integration of design and analysis techniques is opening the door for
Optimization processing. This implies a computer-controlled modification of the
design model based on a set of rules and results of each iteration of the analysis.
Full implementation of this process is years away, but the potential benefit is
enormous, affecting every aspect of product design.
New Algorithms
More efficient algorithms that should speed up processing are now in
development. The "P-version" of the finite-element method is an example that
constructs the model for analysis out of larger elements that more closely follow the
shape of the model. A more accurate and faster analysis can result. This approach
lends itself toward further automation in model generation and significant analysis
performance improvement, but it needs to be proven for more than the 2-D
elastostatic analysis so far demonstrated.
New Applications
Design constraints for higher strength and lower weight are forcing new design
and analysis efforts in applications that have not historically required robust
evaluation. The development of new engineering materials in the form of plastics,
composite materials, metal alloys, and ceramics is compounding the complexity by
combining new product design with new engineering materials. Precise modeling
and analysis of these materials with simulation of the design in the as-used
environment are leading the way to new development areas for MCAE.
Artificial intelligence, rule-based programming, and data base enhancements
are being used to enhance MCAE development. The resulting systems promise to
be more valuable with efficient user interfaces.
2.6-12
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
END USERS
MCAE System Utilization by the Industry
The users of MCAE are found in all manufacturing industries. Every industry
has CAD/CAM installations involved with design and analysis of the manufactured
products. A recent Dataquest survey determined the percentage of system
utilization for the four primary application areas in mechanical CAD/CAM. The
applications measured were design, analysis, drafting, and manufacturing.
Combining the design and analysis percentages on an industry-by-industry basis
provides the data shown in Table 2.6-2.
Table 2.6-2 is based on the 1985 Dataquest end-user survey. Number of sites
indicate total number of sites responding to the survey, sorted by industry.
Percentages represent the percentage of sites with mechanical applications and
the percentage of system operations utilized for MCAE applications. The
MCAE percentage is comprised of the sum of the design percentage and the
analysis percentage.
Manufacturers in the computer, automotive, communication, and aerospace
industries are the largest users of MCAE, based on the percentage of system use.
The mechanical machinery industry is also large as a result of extensive use of
mechanical CAD/CAM applications.
Table 2.6-2
System Utilization for MCAE/Design and Analysis
Indust r1es
Computer
Automot i ve
Commun i cat i ons
Aerospace
Other
Mechan i ca1
Mach i nery
E1ect r i ca1
Moch i ne ry
T ronsportat i on
Fab Metal
Number
of Sites
Percent wi th
Mechan i ca1
AppIi cat i ons
MCAE
Des i gn
Ut i 1i zat ion Percent
Ana lysis
Percent
38
40
16
68
94
66%
70%
63%
68%
71%
46%
45%
43%
41%
39%
39%
38%
34%
31%
29%
7%
7%
9%
10%
10%
54
91%
38%
32%
6%
106
18
56
76%
83%
78%
35%
32%
28%
30%
22%
5%
10%
23%
5%
Sou rce : DATAQUEST
August 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-13
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
PENETRATION
The level of penetration in mechanical CAD/CAM is defined to be the ratio of
installed workstations to the population of users and potential users. Dataquest
expects this ratio, in the long term, to approach 100 percent as workstation access
becomes common. Since MCAE is viewed by Dataquest as a keystone in
mechanical CAD/CAM development, the trend toward full implementation of
M C / ^ is expected to continue with high probability.
The current penetration levels for M C / ^ can be estimated by using the
Dataquest data base for workstations installed, Dataquest end-user survey data, and
user population estimates from U.S. census data. The following should be noted
about MCAE penetration levels:
•
In 1985, there were approximately 44,800 workstations in use in the United
States for mechanical applications. This population is expected to grow to
67,300 in 1986.
•
Of the installed base in 1985, approximately 36 percent of that resource is
used for MCAE activity. This is expected to increase to 42 percent in
1990 and to increase further to 48 percent in 1996.
•
The population of all mechanical and industrial engineers, technicians, and
drafters in the United States in the major manufacturing industries (S.I.C.
34, 35, 36, 37) is estimated to be 385,500 in 1985 and 397,000 in 1986.
•
The resulting penetration percentage is approximately 12 percent in
1985 and 17 percent in 1986.
The above information can only be used as an indication of penetration. The
following considerations need to be made to better understand the current situation:
•
The population of engineers, technicians, and drafters in the above selected
S.LC. code groups represent only 49 percent of the total. Other groups
such as governmental agencies, education, and other manufacturing
industries are important potential markets.
•
Dataquest survey data indicate higher penetration levels if measured by the
number of trained users compared with the number of installed
workstations. Approximately 2.9 users have been trained for each installed
workstation in the major manufacturing industries.
•
The average utilization rate of the installed base of mechanical CAD/CAM
workstations is estimated to be 12 hours per day, based on 1985 Dataquest
survey data. Many of the trained users mentioned above are required to
keep the installed base of workstations busy for more than 12 hours per
day. As the part-time user with a dedicated workstation becomes more
prevalent, the overall average utilization rate is expected to drop to less
than 6 hours per day. High-performance/high-cost workstations will
continue to be used more than 8 hours per day, with low-cost workstations
used only 20 to 30 percent of the time.
2.6-14
©1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
USER ISSUES
Performance Requirements for Display and Computation
The appetite for computer horsepower and display performance for design and
analysis activities is insatiable. A reasonable means of visualizing this situation is to
suggest that the largest drawing has been constructed in a CAD/CAM system. The
largest design or analysis problem is still orders of magnitude away from
realization. Display and manipulation operations must support the growing problem
complexity and provide subsecond response time to reach the next plateau of user
productivity.
Cost Per Seat
The cost of system purchase and/or lease, including operation costs, must be
low enough to allow widespread implementation on a corporate level. The magic
number for wholesale installation is expected to be in the $10,000 to
$20,000 range. PC-based products in that range have experienced phenomenal
growth.
A composite average of $54,300 for mechanical applications in 1985 is
expected to drop to $26,800 in 1990. The composite average of MCAE workstations
is expected to follow a similar price reduction.
Ease of Use
Ease of use is something that every vendor claims but few demonstrate with
any unique capability. The full-time user needs an improved interface to drive the
higher-performance systems being developed. At the low end, the standard fare of
menus, icons, mice, and prompting will have to suffice. Since the lower-cost
systems are generally used by the casual users, it is very important to provide an
easy-to-learn and relearn interface. On-line tutorial and help functions are
suggested by users as beneficial.
Networking
Networking must provide communications between systems and accommodate
computational and data base servers. The transfer of engineering data, both inside
and outside a company, are essential. Transfer of IGES files are common now in
the automotive industry between the major manufacturers and first-line suppliers.
Networking is an integral necessity in completing the communications path of
design and manufacturing automation.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-15
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Data-Base Management
Data-base management with associativity between part geometry and
nongraphic engineering data is necessary to maintain reliable design control and
management.
Complete Part Modeling Functions
The I-can-model-anything modeler is not required to set up FEM/FEA analysis
problems. Simplifications are made to speed up the process, hopefully, not
distorting the results of the analysis. Advancements in computational resources and
automated analysis techniques will make the approximations that are common
today be obsolete in the near term, as fully detailed parts and assemblies are
optimized under program control.
Data-Base Evolution Toward Corporate Definition
For the MCAE process to feed the downstream detail design and
manufacturing operations, a complete geometric modeling function must be
provided. This does not imply that the conceptual designer will build the final detail
model, but it does imply that the functionality must be in the system for everyone to
use when required. A common data base will allow the ready application of
analysis tools to new design as well as production enhancements with a minimum
of overhead. This unified approach is necessary to form the core of a corporate
resource creating the development and production data base.
FEM/FEA
The extensive use of finite-element modeling and analysis will assure the
continued use of this technology. The confidence of working with a time-proven
analysis code is strong incentive to continue business as usual. Evolution will occur
primarily in the user interface and new application areas, but core analysis processing
is expected to change little. New design and analysis codes are expected to make
inroads slowly with substantial verification required. New users will be more open
to new analytical techniques, but reliable correlation to physical test must be
proven.
Kinematics
Kinematic analysis is essential for development of mechanisms in product
design. Eventually the assembly process is all that would be required to constrain
the motion of the mechanism witli full 3-D simulation of part assembly with slop in
the joints and just-touching contact. Full analysis with post processing of results is
required.
2.6-16
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
1.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
MARKET FORECASTS
This section presents detailed analysis of the 1985 MCAE market, with a
forecast through 1990. It is analyzed by product type and region, indicating the
hardware and software content of each classification. The hardware and software
analysis allows an apples-to-apples comparison in looking at market share ranking
of third-party softyvare vendors and turnkey system suppliers. Market share analysis
for 1985 is included for the leading MCAE suppliers.
Overview
The MCAE workstation unit CAGR of 48.6 percent is significantly higher than
the expected 34.1 percent CAGR of the total mechanical market through 1990. The
1985 to 1986 revenue growth in software for MCAE is expected to be more than
18 percent. More than 20 percent of the mechanical workstations were sold
primarily as MCAE workstations. This percentage is expected to grow to 35 percent
in 1990.
Market Forecast By Product Type
The forecast shown in Table 2.6-3a represents worldwide hardware and
software revenue by product type. Table 2.6-3b indicates the percentage
distribution of the same data. The 1985 market estimate, product distribution, and
forecast to 1990 are based on reported 1985 company revenue and survey data.
Revenue for both bundled and unbundled software products has been considered in
the forecast. The units specified are estimated to be the corresponding systems and
workstations required to support the expected software revenue. The following
should be noted about the market forecast by product type:
•
More than 76 percent of the MCAE workstations sold in 1985 were
configured with host-based computers. This is expected to drop to less than
12 percent in 1990.
•
Standalone-based workstations are the fastest growing product type,
expected to grow from a 9 percent share in 1985 to more than 77 percent
in 1990.
•
Personal computers are expected to provide an important hardware
platform for MCAE, representing a peak of 23.4 percent share in 1987.
The level of PC-based MCAE products is expected to fall off after 1987 as
the Standalone product becomes dominant.
•
More than 9 out of 10 software dollars were spent on host-based products in
1985. This is expected to drop dramatically to a 15 percent level in 1990.
•
Hardware revenue for host-based products follows the same pattern,
dropping from 93 percent in 1985 to more than 27 percent in 1990.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-17
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-3a
Worldwide MCAE Market Forecast by Product Type
Hardware and Software Only
(Millions of Dollars and Actual Units)
Worldwide
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
$869
$209
$660
3.729
8,734
$996
$248
$748
7,775
13,456
$1,118
$314
$1,271
$410
$805
13,666
20.123
$861
22,393
29,393
$1,419
$535
$884
$1,607
$699
$908
57,594
63,276
$53
$22
$32
806
$127
2.542
$265
$111
$154
6,342
$483
$210
$273
13,842
$795
$181
$614
1,640
$821
$183
$638
2.582
$772
$179
$592
2,604
$691
$171
$519
6,645
8.263
9,060
2,536
9,536
$20
$5
$15
$48
$13
$35
$81
$23
$58
1,283
2.651
4,720
36,355
42,921
CAGR
13.1%
27.4%
6.6%
72.9%
48.6%
standalone
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Workstations
Host-Dependent
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
Personal Computer
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Workstations
$52
$75
$794
$362
$432
27,489
$1,157
$562
$595
48,797 "
$523
$141
$352
$105
$382
2,160
8,726
$247
1,696
7,378
$97
$29
$68
$101
$31
$70
$98
$32
$66
6,015
6,706
7,100
84.9%
91.5%
79.8%
127.2%
-15.0%
-10.4%
-16.6%
.7%
2.1%
37.4%
42.7%
35.2%
40.8%
Source: DATAQUEST
August 1986
2.6-18
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Alded Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-3b
Worldwide MCAE Market Forecast by Product Type
Hardware and Software Only
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
Standalone
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Workstations
Host-Dependent
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
1990
=====
=====
6.2%
10.5%
4.8%
9.2%
12.7%
21.0%
10.0%
18.9%
23.7%
35.5%
19.1%
31.5%
38.0%
51.2%
31.7%
47.1%
56.0%
67.7%
48.9%
64.0%
72.0%
80.4%
91.5%
86.9%
93.0%
44.0%
76.1%
82.4%
73.6%
85.3%
33.2%
61.4%
69.0%
57.2%
73.6%
19.1%
45.0%
54.4%
41.8%
60.3%
11.3%
32.4%
36.9%
26.4%
43.2%
5.9%
20.3%
21.9%
15.0%
27.2%
2.9%
11.TO
7.6%
7.0%
7.1%
5.9%
7.9%
15.6%
6.1%
4.6%
7.2%
65.5%
77.1%
,»
Personal CoInputer
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Workstations
2.3%
2.6%
4.8%
5.4%
2.2%
14.7%
4.7%
19.7%
7.3%
7.3%
7.2%
23.5%
8.0%
20.5%
11.2%
Source: DATAQUEST
August 1986
Market Forecast by Region
The forecast shown in Table 2.6-4a represents worldwide hardware and
software revenue by region. Table 2.6-4b indicates the percent distribution of the
sanie data. The 1985 market estimate, product distribution, and forecast to
1990 are based on reported 1985 company revenue and survey data. Revenue for
both bundled and unbundled software products has been considered in the forecast.
The units specified are estimated to be the corresponding systems and workstations
required to support the expected software revenue. The following should be noted
about the market forecast by region:
•
The majority of MCAE product was sold in North America in 1985,
representing more than 59 percent of the product revenue. This
corresponds to a 45 percent revenue share for the total mechanical market.
The MCAE market revenue is expected to drop slightly to 58.3 percent in
1990. Roughly half of the MCAE workstations sold in 1985 were sold in
North America.
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-19
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
•
The European region is growing slightly as a percentage of revenue and
workstation units installed. Revenue is expected to grow from more than
25 percent in 1985 to 28 percent in 1990.
•
The Far East was responsible for approximately 13 percent of product
revenue in 1985. This corresponds to a higher unit percentage of roughly
20 percent. The more prevalent low-cost product causes the higher unit
percentage.
•
The remaining worldwide market has a small 1.5 percent of revenue and
unit shipments. This market is keeping up with the growth of MCAE in
general, maintaining an expected 1.5 share throughout 1990.
2.6-20
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-4a
Worldwide MCAE Market Forecast by Region
H a r d w a r e and Software Only
(Millions of Dollars and Actual Units)
CAGR
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
$869
$208
$660
3,729
8,734
$996
$248
$748
7.775
13,456
$1,118
$314
$805
13,666
20.123
$1,271
$410
$861
22,393
29,393
$1,419
$535
$884
36,355
42,921
$1,607
$699
$908
57,594
63,276
13.1%
27.4%
6.6%
72.9%
48.6%
$517
$124
$393
2,118
4,352
$592
$148
$445
4,623
6,691
$747
$241
$506
13.170
14.424
$830
$313
$517
21,271
20,934
$935
$407
$529
33,525
30,672
12.6%
26.8%
6.1%
73.7%
47.8%
$225
$262
$302
$54
$65
$85
$171
1,077
2,501
$197
2,046
3,907
$217
3,692
5,984
$350
$113
$237
6,161
8,888
$395
$149
$246
10,111
13,107
$450
$196
$254
16,133
19,450
29.4%
8.3%
71.8%
50.7%
$113
$128
$140
i157
$175
$199
$27
$86
490
$32
$96
$39
$51
$66
$87
1,749
1,000
2,668
$101
1.717
3,930
'$106
2,768
5,681
$109
4,494
8,296
$113
7,148
12,262
$13
$3
$10
44
132
$14
$3
$10
106
190
$15
$4
$11
180
274
$17
$5
$11
295
400
$19
$7
$12
479
583
$22
$10
$12
788
892
1985
Worldwide
Revenue T o t a l
Software
Hardware
SysteIns
Workstations
North AInerica
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
SysteIns
Workstations
Europe
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
Far East
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
SysteIns
Workstations
Rest of World
Revenue Total
Software
. Hardware
Systems
Workstations
$661
$185
$476
8,0789,936
14.9%
11.9%
26.1%
5.5%
70.9%
47.6%
11.5%
25.6%
5.1%
77.8%
46.6%
Source: DATAQUEST
August 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-21
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Table 2.6-4b
Worldwide MCAE Market Forecast by Region
Hardware a n d Software Only
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
=====
=====
==-==
=====
=====
=====
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
59.6%
59.6%
59.6%
56.8%
49.8%
59.5%
59.5%
59.5%
59.5%
49.7%
59.1%
59.1%
59.1%
59.1%
49.4%
58.8%
58.8%
58.8%
58.8%
49.1%
58.5%
58.5%
58.5%
58.5%
48.8%
58.2%
58.2%
58.2%
58.2%
48.5%
Europe
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
28.9%
28.6%
26.3%
26.3%
26.3%
26.3%
29.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.0%
29.7%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
30.2%
27.8%
27.8%
27.8%
27.8%
30.5%
28.0%
28.0%
28.0%
28.0%
30. ra
Far East
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
20.0%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
19.8%
12.6%
12.6%
12.6%
12.6%
19.5%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
19.3%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
19.3%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
12.4%
19.4%
Rest of World
Revenue Total
Software
Hardware
Systems
Workstations
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
North AInerica
Source: DATAQUEST
August 1986
2.6-22
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS
The estimated mechanical computer-aided engineering market analysis for
1985 is shown in Table 2.6-5 and Figure 2.6-2. The 1985 software-only revenue is
used to indicate market share. Hardware and software revenue for turnkey and
software-only vendors was considered. The if-sold value of the hardware necessary
to support the unbundled software products has been added where necessary to
allow reasonable comparison.
Table 2.6-5
Estimated 1985 MCAE Market Share
Vendors
IBM
Computervi s i on
MocNeal-Schwendl er*
SDRC*
Intergraph
McDonne11 Doug!as
Swanson Analysis
PDA Engineering
Prime Computer
App11 con
Other
Total
Hardware and
Sof tware
Revenue*
$252.9
105.4
75.9
69.5
55.4
48.5
40.8
31 .9
34.9
31 .6
98.9
$845.7
SoftwareOnly
Revenue
Market
Sha re
27.7%
12.2
• 10.1
10.1
6.1
5.3
4.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
12.0
$ 57.8
25.4
21 .0
21 .0
12.6
11.1
10.1
8.8
7.9
7.8
.:
25.0
100.0%
$208.5
•The it-sold value for hardware to support the unbundled software products has been added where necessary for
comparison purposes. Market share percentages are calculated based on software-only revenue.
Source:
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
Dataquest
August 1986
2.6-23
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Figure 2.6-2
Estimated 1985 MCAE Market Share
Computervision
12.2%
MacNeal-Schvi/endler
10.1%
IntfSraph ^
6-1°/<>
\
/
/
\
V ^ ^
^>~J__J_-<^''\
McDonnell Douglas
[
5.3%
I
Swanson Analysis
4.8%
Applicon Inc.
^•'^°''°
\
Prime Computer
\
3.8%
PDA Engineering
4.2%
Source: Dataquest
August 1986
DATAQUEST ANALYSIS
Market
MCAE is a key element in the evolution of CAD/CAM. MCAE is growing,
upgrading the complete design and analysis process including conceptual design,
detail product design, and manufacturing engineering design. Users at all levels will
benefit by having access to efficient tools for the dedicated or casual user.
In the short term, the benefits of MCAE are derived from the close integration
of design and analysis applications. Full integration of MCAE into the mainstream
of corporate decision making is a long-term issue essential in gaining the full
benefit of design automation technology.
2.6-24
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
Product
The total range of process and display advancements, from personal computers
to supercomputers, are being utilized. Also used are all types of display hardware,
from monocolor low-resolution to high-resolution, full color, real-time dynamic
display. Dataquest believes that the basic requirement to solve more complex
design and analysis problems will continue to drive product offerings toward
higher-performance packages.
Solid modeling is emerging as the primary modeling tool in MCAE, with 2-D
and 3-D wireframe supporting the effort. Finite-element modeling and analysis is
expected to remain an important technology in MCAE throughout the foreseeable
future. Analytical tools are being applied to a growing list of applications,
increasing the value and utility for a larger audience.
Vendor
The 54 percent MCAE market growth estimate in workstation units in 1986 is
significantly greater than the expected 32 percent growth of the mechanical market
in general. All major CAD/CAM vendors are contributing with current product
offerings. The 1985 market share analysis shows the turnkey vendors nearly
Splitting the market with software-only vendors. The top ten mechanical CAD/CAM
vendors must offer highly functional MCAE products to remain in the club of
market leaders.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
2.6-25
2.6 Mechanical Computer-Aided Engineering (MCAE)
(Page intentionally left blank)
2.6-26
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated September
CCIS Markets
]plicatior
3.1 AEC Definitions
The Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment comprises
CAD products that are used in the design (prebuild) and management (postbuild)
phases of a facility project. CAD is typically not used during the building phase of a
project, although its use in the design phase can have a direct impact on how
productive the construction of a facility will be; significant cost and time savings
have been reported during the building phase as a result of using CAD in project
design. The most common form of output from a CAD system would be drawings
of a facility yet to be built, or a facility being managed.
Figure 3.1-1 shows Dataquest's view of this segment, which takes into account
major end-user markets as well as the tasks associated with both the design or
management phase of a facility project.
Figure 3.1-1
The AEC Segment
Data Management
Drafting/Documentation
Analysis
Design/Model
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.1-1
3.1 AEC Definitions
FACILITY
The standard (Webster's) definition for facility reads, "...something that is
built, installed, or established to serve a particular purpose." Engineering News
Record (ENR) uses several specific categories of facility projects as a barometer to
measure the health of the design and construction industries from one year to the
next. Table 3.1-1 lists those categories of facilities.
Table 3.1-1
Facility Project Categories
Category
Water Supply
Power
Manufacturing
Building
Sewer, Waste
Transportation
Pipeline
Other
Description
Dams, Canels, Locks, River Channels
Electric/Gas Utilhy Plants
All Kinds of Plants (i.e., Process/Discrete)
Residential/Commercial (Offices, Shopping
Centers, Hospitals, etc.)
As Stated
Roads, Highways, Bridges, Railroads, etc.
Oil/Gas (including Natural Gas)
Offshore Drilling Platforms, Ships (and other
ocean-going vessels), etc.
Source: ENR Magazine
Dataquest
June 1986
MAJOR MARKETS
As shown in Figure 3.1-1, the AEC CAD markets are very diverse. And the
engineering professionals and technicians working in these industries are from a
variety of disciplines, making for even greater levels of complexity. Regardless of
these diversities, however, a facility (and the design, construction, or managing of
it) is always the focal point of these markets and the professionals working within
them.
The type of facility that is being designed, built, or managed dictates what type
of firm(s) and engineering professional(s) are required for project execution. In
many cases, companies or utilities have in-house design or construction crews.
However, Dataquest believes that the majority of facility projects are executed by
independent design or construction firms.
3.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.1 AEC Definitions
Table 3.1-2 lists the various types of professionals that could at some point be
involved in a facility project and have use for CAD systems.
Table 3.1-2
Classification of Professionals
Architect
Civil/Structural Engineer
Civil/Site Engineer
Mechanical Engineer
Surveyor
Electrical Engineer
Industrial Engineer
Chemical Engineer
Piping Engineer
Petroleum Engineer
Nuclear Engineer
Marine Engineer/Naval Architect
Related Technicians (i.e., Designers/Draftspersons)
Facility Manager
Source: U.S. Census of Population
Dataquest
June 1986
TASKS
The tasks of design, analysis, documentation, and data management take on
various meanings based again on the facility being designed or managed, as well as
the professionals involved. For instance, in the case of an architect working on a
commercial office building project, design usually means the creative and asthetic
aspects of that project (i.e., the most visual aspects of the proposed structure). To
an engineer, design may represent the creative aspects of his work as well.
However, on a day-to-day basis it also represents the cranking out of calculations in
some form to complete the "design" (i.e., the structural, mechanical, and electrical
aspects of the building).
There are numerous programs and special CAD system functionalities that are
related to the AEC application segment. Many of them are listed below, including:
•
•
Geometric construction and
editing
•
Space projections
•
Stacking/blocking routines
Planning/layout
Elevations
Massing studies
CCIS Markets
Equipment/inventory management
Structural grid/column layouts
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.1-3
3.1 AEG Definitions
Interference checking
Stress calculations (analysis)
Steel detailing
HVAC design
Piping/plumbing design
Electrical schematics
P & EDs
Isometric views
Control diagrams
Perspective views
Sectioned views
Wireframe modeling
Solid modeling
On-line graphics programming
FEM/FEA
Report generation
Bill of Materials generation
Given the depth and complexity of the ABC segment (as demonstrated by the
breakouts of our model), it is beyond the scope of this section to further define
what each of the different types of facility projects would require in terms of CAD
system functionality. There are distinct CAD differences from one project to
another and in both the prebuild phase and the postbuild phase (termed facility
management).
Dataquest will address the CAD requirements for the different types of facility
projects in future writings, as part of this AEC chapter.
•
3.1-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CGIS Markets
3.2 AEC Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the AEC application segment.
•
AEC CAD/CAM revenue was $746 million in 1985; it is forecast to grow to
$896 million in 1986 and to $1,876 million in 1990.
•
DATAQUEST expects the AEC CAD/CAM market to grow in revenue at
21 percent compounded annually for the next five years.
•
The total number of CAD/CAM workstation units shipped in 1985 was
18,514; Dataquest forecasts 20,712 in 1986 and 42,525 in 1990.
•
Major hurdles have been crossed that were once blocking widespread use
of AEC CAD tools, i.e., price/performance ratio of hardware tools, display
performance, availability of software, and ease of use.
•
As the price of hardware continues to drop, more users will continue to
look toward CAD as a replacement for manual design methods.
•
The effect of the personal computer has been dramatic. More than
70 percent of the workstations sold in 1985 were based on PCs.
•
Data base management capability will be a crucial factor in the future of
facility design and management.
•
Future systems will allow fast- or slow-motion data base manipulation with
a time-base reference available to provide accurate simulation of changes
in the model as a function of time. This will result in realistic simulation of
a wide variety of operations, which will be useful in many facility projects.
•
Mergers and acquisitions can be valuable shortcuts toward improving the
relative position of a vendor's total offering. Careful analysis of the many
opportunities can avoid a costly or catastrophic detour.
OCXS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.2-1
3.3 AEC Market Overview
AEC HISTORY
Until 1983, the AEC segment had been affected by several key factors. These
included:
•
Dominance of the segment by only four CAD vendors
•
CAD system usage limited mostly to 2-D drafting applications
•
Expensive and often limiting computing/graphics hardware
The handful of vendors dominating the AEC segment included Applicon,
Auto-trol, Computervision, and Intergraph. A turnkey, host-dependent system
approach prevailed, and Digital Equipment's PDP-11 and VAX computers were
featured in the CAD systems of all the vendors (except Computervision). For this
reason, we believe that Digital Equipment hardware had been the dominant
computing platform in this CAD segment.
In 1982, Auto-trol made history by positioning itself as the first AEC vendor to
offer Standalone computing capability. The company announced that it would offer
its AEC products on Apollo Computer's first standalone product. Late in 1983,
Calma also announced its support of ApoUo's workstation products.
Table 3.3-1 shows Dataquest's estimates of the installed base of AEC
workstations for each of the vendor companies as of year-end 1983 (and the
combined totals of all these companies) compared with the total AEC installed
base. We estimate that the workstation installed base of these four vendors
represented 81 percent of the total AEC installed base at year-end 1983.
Table 3.3-1
Year-End 1983 Estimates
Worldwide AEC Workstation Installed Base
(Thousands of Units)
Year-End 1983
Installed Base
Company
Applicon
Auto-trol
Computervision
Intergraph
Total
1,030
1,187
1,573
2,495
6,285
Total Installed Base
7,800
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.3-1
3.3 AEC Market Overview
CAD vendors until now have capitalized on architects' and engineers' needs to
generate enormous quantities of detailed construction drawings by offering systems
to automate this stage of a project (labeled the drafting/documentation stage).
However, a design process usually starts long before it reaches a draftsperson's
table. Prior to this point, the project architect and/or engineer has already spent
many hours huddled over hand-drawn sketches or plastic miniature-size models,
conceptualizing a proposed facility. The drawings that emerge from this stage are
usually called concept drawings or (architectural) renderings. There has been much
disagreement (in both the vendor and AEC user communities) surrounding the need
for a system with anything more than drafting functionality. We believe though that
most users have not been able or ready, for a number of reasons, to tackle the
challenge of implementing full-scale (concept design to design documentation)
systems. The reasons for this can be identified as hardware, hardware, and
hardware; most users in the AEC community were not in a position to invest in the
computing horsepower needed to drive full-scale design systems.
Niche Approaches
Eventually, the absence of design and analysis solutions from the major turnkey
vendors cleared the way for the AEC niche market vendors. The solutions
introduced by this group were much more complex and were usually sold on a
third-party basis. One of the best-known and most-used solutions is STRUDL, a
Structural program that is used to calculate the effects of stress on a given
Structure. In addition, many other programs have been developed for the
mechanical, electrical, and civil/site disciplines to solve the complex calculations
involved in those aspects of facility design.
Drafting Revisited
Dataquest believes that the entry of personal computer-based CAD solutions
forever changed the AEC world. The revolution began in 1984, when one product,
AutoCAD from AutoDesk, took the CAD world by storm; we estimate it shipped in
excess of 5,000 packages that year.
AutoCAD was quickly adopted by many professionals in this application
segment, bringing the focus back again to the world of drafting and away from
full-scale design systems. A survey conducted by AutoCAD of its installed base in
early 1986 revealed that half of all disciplines using AutoCAD fall into the AEC
classification.
The ability of personal computer-based systems to serve this drawing-intensive
application segment has been disputed since the introduction of the first system in
1978. (T & W Systems was actually the first to offer this type of approach.) But it
was a short-lived dispute, as more and more functionality (particularly in hardware)
was added to this product platform. Between 1984 and 1986, Dataquest believes
that nearly 100 software solutions were made available to the AEC segment, for
3.3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.3 AEC Market Overview
use on the personal computer. We also believe that a majority of them have been
developed as "piggyback" solutions for the AutoCAD program, / ^ d several of
these solutions brought the issues of design and analysis back into the spotlight.
Major Turnkey Vendors' Dominance Wanes in 1984
To be sure, the market for AEC CAD systems expanded in 1984, with the
availability of low-cost solutions. This marked a major shift in the overall installed
base of workstations. As shown in Table 3.3-2, the four vendors that together had
dominated the AEC segment through 1983 represented only 37 percent of the total
installed base after 1984. Dataquest estimates that 9,530 personal computer
workstations were shipped during 1984, which represented 72 percent of the total
workstations shipped that year to the / ^ C segment.
Table 3.3-2
Year-End 1984 Estimates
Worldwide AEC Workstation Installed Base
(Thousands of Units)
Company
Applicon
Auto-trol
Computervision
Intergraph
Total
Total Installed Base
Year-End 1984
Installed Base
Year-End 1983
Installed Base
1,176
1,349
1,696
3,379
1,030
1,187
1,573
2,495
7,600
6,285
20,784
7,800
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
As 1984 was reaching a close and 1985 approaching, many of the traditional
CAD vendors (as well as new CAD vendors) were either initiating or implementing
low-cost system strategies to address a larger available market. The writing was on
the wall in 1984. It read:
LOW-COST SOLUTIONS MEAN MANY MORE BUYERS
We believe that this statement has never been truer than in the AEC segment,
where an estimated 80 percent of design firms have 10 or fewer persons working in
them.
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.3-3
3.3 AEC Market Overview
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
Aside from the low-cost issue and all that it entails (e.g., distribution channel
decisions) there are currently additional market- and product-related considerations
for CAD vendors that participate in the AEC segment. Some of the major
considerations include:
•
Having flexible enough product offerings to ride out the constant shifts in
user requirements
•
Interchange standards
•
Data base management
•
Furthering progress on interfaces for drawing and engineering functions
Shifts in User Requirements
Engineering News Record reports regularly on the changing scene of construction
planning. One message that is heard consistently throughout the industry concerns
the office/commercial building market; ENR observers predict a drastic decline in
the next several years in new construction plans (1986 plans are forecast to
increase only two percent). On the more positive side, infrastructure (i.e., roads,
highways, bridges) construction plans are booming across the United States and
around the world.
With most oil-related and nuclear projects in a holding pattern, design and/or
construction firms that depended on this kind of work are scrambling to stay afloat,
and in many cases are reorganizing to address the opportunities that exist in other
project sectors.
The above situations are examples of the dynamics of the facility design and
construction industry. CAD vendors that are wary of these dynamics are reaping the
rewards, for as stated earlier, the type of CAD products needed for project design
differ according to the type of facility being built. Those whose products are tied to
any one particular need are probably riding the same choppy wave that affects the
users' livelihood. At this stage, many design firms are experiencing the effects of
instability in different project segments.
Interchange Standards
As the number of AEC C/UD users grows, the problem of architects, engineers,
and general contractors all working on the same project with different CAD systems
becomes more apparent. Dataquest believes that although specific interfaces have
been developed between the traditional vendors' CAD systems, the need for a
Standard exchange specification with translators to each system has never been
3.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.3 AEC Market Overview
greater. The mechanical CAD segment cannot function without such a standard; the
automobile and aerospace manufacturers are examples of this fact.
The AEC subcommittee of the Initial Graphics Exchange Specification (IGES)
has been working toward developing future versions of IGES to serve AEC needs
better. Dataquest believes that a common graphics exchange standard for AEC
users is essential if CAD is to provide not just automated drafting but design
coordination within a firm and between firms. We believe at this stage that such a
Standard is imminent, quite possibly with the release of Version 3.0 of IGES.
User groups are also set up to test the standard as it is upgraded over the next
year. Hellmuth, Obata, and Kassabaum (HOK), an architectural firm in St. Louis,
has produced an IGES test drawing for a building that will help to test whether the
claims of a vendor in conforming to IGES are realistic. (An interesting note—HOK
released its first architectural system in 1985, composed of proprietary software
and Digital Equipment hardware.)
Data Base Management
In light of the multidisciplinary nature of the AEC segment, it is not surprising
to find a similar scenario to what exists in the mechanical segment—usually termed
"islands of automation." Many of the CAD products available today solve only one
particular piece of the total facility design puzzle.
As many CAD vendors have acknowledged, data base management capability
is another critical factor in the growth of the AEC segment, falling directly in line
with IGES capability to effectively merge these automation islands. Once the
systems compatibility issue is solved via interchange standards, the flow of
information must be transferred, controlled, and maintained. Almost without
exception, a user's data base represents its most valuable investment in CAD. This
is becoming increasingly more evident, since it would contribute greatly to a user's
ability to manage a facility after construction. In this capacity, its most vital role
would be to provide a user with quick and ready access to accurate and up-to-date
information about the facility.
Data base management capabilities have become more sophisticated, providing
capabilities to generate bills of materials and other comprehensive reports from the
project data base to support related design, purchasing, and construction activities.
Demands for such data base management features as change management and
notification, access control (particularly important for distributed workstation-based
systems), and drawing archiving, have been met with limited success.
Drawing/Engineering Interfaces
Increasingly sophisticated hardware technology, especially in the graphics area,
has boosted the efforts behind interfacing the engineering (design/analysis) aspects
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.3-5
3.3 AEC Market Overview
of a facility project with the drawing (drafting) aspects. This is perhaps one of the
most crucial issues in the world of AEC, and again, is closely related to the
interchange standards issue. Software vendors and turnkey system suppliers are
working to fill the gaps and to interface accepted engineering programs and
methods to drafting systems.
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
Each of the issues discussed in the previous section on current environment
focused on system functionality and the opportunities that existed for improvement.
The overall consensus could be that the most successful CAD vendors in the AEC
segment will provide well-integrated application software. Not only would it be well
integrated, but it would run on a wide range of computing hardware. These
Statements are both true in general, but they fail to identify where some of the
market opportunities exist and how they are related.
Facility Management
Facility management can be labeled both a market niche and an application
within the AEC segment. Henceforth, it will be treated and defined as both.
Dataquest believes that facility management will be one of the fastest-growing
AEC markets during the remainder of the 1980s. A forthcoming report detailing
this market/application segment will describe this growth in greater detail.
As a CAD application, it requires the principles of design or drawing that
would best suit the facility being managed. Oftentimes, the issues concern space
allocation as it would occur in an office or manufacturing environment. Given these
two examples, the end user might be an architect or industrial engineer.
CAD is really only one part of the overall picture in a facility management
environment. A host of other application-specific functions are necessary in most
cases. And most of them rely on the presence of data base management systems to
be implemented successfully.
We believe that hardware preferences will vary according to the size of an
organization and often according to how facility management is viewed. For
example, if it is viewed as an integral part of a large corporation (in excess of
500,000 square feet), the implementation would most likely center on a centralized
computing approach (i.e., mini or mainframe computers). Vendors choosing a
strategy of targeting this size of facility management customers will want to be
prepared to offer this type of solution.
Dataquest believes that personal computer-based solutions will be considered
viable alternatives in companies with 500,000 square feet or less.
3.3-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
'
CCIS Markets
3.3 AEC Market Overview
Design/Construction Firms
This market category relates back to Dataquest's AEC model shown in the
definition section of this chapter. There are many firms that fall under this heading,
which makes for a highly competitive situation. In an effort to diversify, many of
them are moving into new project-related work. The two most visible shifts have
been toward providing construction management or materials procurement for
construction. These highly information-intensive applications often require larger
computer capacity. Many vendors are positioning themselves to address this
emerging market opportunity.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.3-7
3.4.1 Total AEC CAD/CAM
This section covers the total architectural, engineering and construction (AEC)
CAD/CAM market for all regions and product types and refers to
Figures 3.4.1-1 Revenue and 3.4.1-1 Shipments and Table 3.4.1-1.
•
The AEC segment reached an estimated $746 million in 1985 and is
forecast to grow to $1,876 million in 1990, at a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 21 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will increase 21 percent in 1986, reaching
$896 million.
•
Workstation shipments in 1985 were an estimated 18,514 units; shipments
are expected to reach 42,525 units in 1990, growing at an 18 percent
CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.1-1
3.4.1 Total AEC CAD/CAM
Figure 3.4.1-1 Revenue
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
2000-,
teoo
1600
^:'^^\$
1400-
1200
W<v^
i V 't'X,'
'-4."^"V"'.J
V
-^ -i.. V -'
1000
m
800
. .->V'%Xi
M;^
'\^',Xv'*^
>XXv<
i'\>,.sX-
W-Ks
WsXS
^:^<^-sy
K-,>?-::\
•s
h..
kW^
VxN.. \
600
I^^^H
KXX^
te
^c
^^
400
S5^
'V^^KV'^
200
"v^NX'^
ss'^y-s.
^
^
^
1985
1986
^
^
i
m
1967
19B8
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.1 Total AEC CAD/CAM
Figure 3.4.1-1 Shipments
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
45000-
40000
35000-
tj^^
XX
30000 •-J%?«>A
25000
^^XSXl
20000
^
^
•'"'"N'w
X'\?W V -
^ ^ ^ ^
15000
p-'^'^\'r^i''''''l"
m
vXV<'^'>
p>;w.
10000
5000
i \ '''•i'
<^X
.v^.v
1986
1987
I
X
>Kw!=
\XW'
^^SS
•.>Xx\H
•j ft) > , "'
^^'^^
•^•^'xv'
CCIS Markets
^
R;<K^:K
w^
1985
%KvxS-
V
1988
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
1969
P
'•:\"\\\i
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.1-3
3.4.1 Total AEC CAD/CAM
Table 3.4.1-1
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Total Applications
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
^9eS
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1^8
19^
746
896
15,466
18,514
16,977
20,712
1,075
20,774
25,201
1,296
25.352
30,486
1,559
30,933
36,465
1^0
1,876
37,096
42,525
CAGR
20.2X
19.IX
18.IX
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
341-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.2 AEC Market Shares
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the AEC market
share distribution and refers to Figure 3.4.2-1 and Table 3.4.2-1.
•
Intergraph Corporation continued to dominate this application area in 1985,
with a 27 percent share of total market sales.
•
Dataquest attributes Intergraph's dominance in this market during the past
few years to several factors:
—
Early entry into the marketplace
—
Products that serve a wide range of AEC applications
—
Continuous expansion of its product line
—
Multifunctional systems (mapping is another strong key offering—an
application that is closely tied to AEC)
•
Despite a substantial growth in revenue during 1985 (approximately
20 percent), Intergraph's relative market share position became diluted as
more vendors were added to the AEC roster of companies.
•
Computervision held on strong to its second-place ranking in AEC, despite
a shaky year for the company overall.
•
After the second-place ranking, the picture resembles somewhat a
dogfight—with Holguin-C/UD leading in the third-place position.
•
Holguin received a boost in 1985 with the addition of BruningCAD to its
camp; the acquisition of BruningCAD, combined with its own AEC
business, catapulted Holguin to a third-place ranking.
•
Most of the Other large, traditional turnkey CAD companies experienced
Strong growth in this segment in 1985; IBM was boosted to a fifth-place
ranking with an estimated 300 percent growth over 1984 revenue, reaching
$35 million in new AEC system sales.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.2-1
3.4.2 AEC Market Shares
Figure 3.4.2-1
AEC Market Share—Worldwide
1985
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.2-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.2 AEC Market Shares
Table 3.4.2-1
AEC Market Share—Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars)
COMPANY
1985
REVENUE
1985
SHARE
Intergraph
Computervision
Holguin-CAD
Cat ma
IBI4
Calcomp
Auto-Trot
McAuto
Prime
Applicon
Autodesk
Hewlett-Packard
Control Data
SDRC
MacNeal Schwendler
Ferranti
Matra Datavision
Other Computer Companies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey and Software
All Companies
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
27.4%
6.5%
5.0%
4.9%
4.7%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
3.8%
3.1%
1.9%
1.3%
204
49
38
37
35
33
33
31
28
23
14
10
5
2
1
1
1
63
32
Tl
32
746
.6%
.2%
.1%
.1%
.1%
8.5%
4.3%
10.3%
4.2%
100.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.2-3
3.4.3 AEC Regions
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the AEC market,
segmented by region and refers to Figures 3.4.3-1 Revenue and 3.4.3-1 Shipments
and Tables 3.4.3-1 and 3.4.3-2.
•
We expect the estimated 21 percent CAGR in revenue between 1985 and
1990 to be evenly distributed over the four major market segments.
Dataquest expects the European sector to make a very slight gain in share
of total market.
•
The North American section is forecast to maintain its lead in consumption
of CAD, representing 63 percent of revenue worldwide.
•
The emerging countries will have an early interest in AEC CAD/CAM tools
in comparison with the other regional sectors because of the high level of
building, construction, and large commercial development projects that are
typical in that environment.
•
The CAD products developed in Europe and Japan are expected to gain a
growing percentage of the U.S. market share. U.S.-based vendors will
require a concerted effort and strategic alliances with local distributors to
maintain a significant market share. Dataquest believes that the next two
years will provide the largest window of opportunity to gain market
recognition and share.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.3-1
3.4.3 AEC Regions
Figure 3.4.3-1 Revenue
AEC CAD/CAM By Region
lyillions of Dollars
1200-
North Annerica
Europe
1000
•
Far East
X
ROW
600-
600
400
200
^^
0^
1985
1986
1987
1988
1S69
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.3 AEC Regions
Figure 3.4.3-1 Shipments
AEC CAD/CAM By Region
Workstation Shipments
27000 -
•
North America
•
Europe
Far East
24000 -
X
ROW
21000-
18000-
15000-
12000-
9000-
6000-
•"
3000-
n^ ^
1985
X
1
1986
v/
X
1
1
1987
1988
>c
-^<
1989
1990
Source: DaEaouesC
June 1986
•
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
•
3.4.3-3
3.4.3 AEC Regions
Table 3.4.3-1
AEC CAD/CAM By Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
746
15.466
18,514
896
16,977
20,712
1,075
20,774
25,201
1,296
25.352
30,486
1,559
30,933
36,465
1,876
37,096
42,525
20.2X
19.1X
18.1%
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
469
9,208
10,961
563
9,901
12,126
675
12,146
14,897
814
15.164
18.399
979
19,028
22,581
1,178
23.201
26.870
20.2X
20.3X
19.6%
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
144
4,475
5.063
173
4,067
4,776
208
4,834
5,734
250
5.670
6,744
301
6,679
7,791
363
7,769
8,702
20.3X
11.7%
11.4%
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
109
1.403
1,995
131
2,579
3,242
157
3,248
3.845
189
3,811
4.425
228
4,323
4,958
275
5,003
5,598
20.3X
29.0%
22.9%
24
29
430
569
35
546
724
42
707
918
51
903
1,136
61
1,124
1,355
20.2X
24.2%
22.3%
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
3a)
495
Source: Oataquest
June 1986
3.4.3-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.3 AEC Regions
Table 3.4.3-2
AEC CAD/CAM By Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1989
1988
1990
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
63X
60%
59X
63X
58X
59X
63X
58X
59X
63X
60X
60X
63X
62X
62X
63X
63X
63X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
19X
29%
27X
19X
24X
23X
19X
23X
23X
19X
22X
22X
19X
22X
21X
19X
21X
20X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
15X
9X
11X
15X
15X
16X
15X
16X
15X
15X
15X
15X
15X
14X
14X
15X
13X
13X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
3X
2X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
3X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.3-5
3.4.4 AEC Product Types
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the AEC CAD/CAM
market segmented by product type and refers to Figures 3.4.4-1 Revenue and
3.4.4-2 Shipments and Tables 3.4.4-1 and 3.4.4-2.
•
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 1985 to
1990 is forecast to be 20 percent.
•
Personal computer-based system shipments dominated in 1985, accounting
for an estimated 83 percent of total system shipments.
•
Although personal computer-based solutions will continue to be viewed as
viable CAD options, we believe that the emphasis will shift steadily to a
higher-performance 32-bit workstation solution (particularly as price
erosion continues to occur).
•
With the average system cost dropping, a larger increase in workstation
shipments is projected. The 1985 to 1990 CAGR is estimated at
18 percent.
•
In 1985, workstation shipments totaled 18,512 units. They are expected to
grow to an estimated 42,525 in 1990, an 18 percent GAGR.
•
Systems with distributed architectures are forecast to represent 85 percent
of the total market in 1990 by workstation volume and 79 percent by
revenue.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.4-1
3.4.4 AEC Product Types
Figure 3.4.4-1 Revenue
AEC CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
MiHions of Dollars
1200
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
^
Personal Connputsr
1000-
800
600
400
200
0igas
1986
1987
1988
19S9
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.4-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.4 AEC Product Types
Figure 3.4.4-1 Shipments
AEC CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Workstation Shipnnents
Standalone
18000^
•
•
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
i\.
16000-
14000i k—
12000-
10000-
8000:-
-^—
6000-
~—i>
4000 4
2000-
0-
1985
1
1
1
<
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 19S6
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.4-3
3.4.4 AEC Product Types
Table 3.4.4-1
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Application by P r o d u c t Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
Total Marlcet
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
746
15.466
18,514
896
16,977
20,712
1,075
20.774
25,201
1.296
25.352
30.486
1.559
30.933
36,465
1,876
37,096
42,525
20.2X
19.1%
18.IX
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
163
1,674
1,674
261
2,881
2,881
416
5,065
5,065
620
8.277
8,277
891
12,911
12.911
1.255
19.456
19.456
50.4X
63.3X
63.3X
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
470
880
3,928
501
1,002
4,738
500
1.115
5,542
491
1,199
6,333
457
1.183
6.715
401
1.040
6.469
-3.IX
3.4X
10.5X
113
12,912
12,912
133
13,093
13,093
158
14.594
14.594
185
15.875
15.875
210
16,839
16,839
221
16.600
16.600
14.4X
5.2X
S.2X
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations;
1989
1990
CAGR
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.4 AEC Product Types
Table 3.4.4-2
AEC CAD/GAM-Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1989
1988
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
WorIcstations
22X
11X
9X
29X
17X
14X
39X
24X
20X
48X
33X
27X
57X
42X
35X
67X
52X
46X
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
63X
6X
21X
S6X
6X
23X
47X
SX
22X
38X
SX
21X
29X
4X
18X
21X
3X
15X
Personal Coofxiter
Revenue
Systems
WorIcstations
15X
83X
70X
15X
77X
63X
15X
70X
58X
UX
63X
52X
13X
54X
46X
12X
45X
39X
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.4-5
3.4.5 AEC Turnkey Average Prices
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the average price
per seat by product type for the AEC turnkey segment and refers to
Figure 3.4.5-1 and Table 3.4.5-1.
•
Dataquest believes that the average price per seat for AEC will decrease
from $58,400 in 1985 to $34,900 in 1990, which represents a negative
10 percent CAGR.
•
Host-dependent systems in general continue to offer greater capacity to run
more engineering-intensive applications, which accounts for the highest
average price per seat in 1985.
•
By 1990, the average price per seat of standalone systems will exceed that
of host-dependent systems by approximately $800 per seat, at $44,900.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.5-1
3.4.5 AEC Turnkey Average Prices
Figure 3.4.5-1
AEC Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
100
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
m-
20 i t
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.5-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.5 AEC Turnkey Average Prices
Table 3.4.5-1
AEC Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
All Product Types
Staixialone
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
58.4
73.3
105.8
20.0
53.2
68.4
92.8
18.8
47.2
61.6
77.1
17.9
42.3
55.4
64.0
16.8
38.1
49.9
53.1
15.6
34.9
44.9
44.1
14.4
-10X
-9%
-16%
-6%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
OCXS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.5-3
3.4.6 AEC Revenue Source
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the AEC market
segmented by revenue source for each product type. The data are presented in
Figure 3.4.6-1 and Tables 3.4.6-1 and 3.4.6-2.
•
Dataquest estimates that hardware represented 66 percent of total revenue
in 1985; we estimate this portion of revenue will decrease through 1990 to
represent 56 percent in that year.
•
Software revenue is estimated to increase (as a portion of total revenue)
from 22 percent of revenue in 1985 to 27 percent of revenue in 1990,
representing a 26 percent CAGR.
•
Revenue from service is also estimated to increase as a percent of revenue
through 1990; in 1985 service represented 13 percent of revenue, and in
1990 service is estimated at 17 percent of AEC revenue.
CCIS Marlcets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.6-1
3.4.6 AEC Revenue Source
Figure 3.4.6-1
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
Millions of Dollars
1000
•
Hardware
#
Softv/are
A
Service
SOO:
600
400-
200
1985
198S
1987
1966
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.6-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
3.4.6 AEC Revenue Source
Table 3.4.6-1
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
All Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
490
162
93
746
600
183
112
896
702
236
137
817
306
173
936
395
229
1,056
1,075
1,296
1,559
1,876
17%
26%
27%
20%
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
95
49
19
163
163
68
31
261
256
110
51
416
372
168
80
620
515
249
127
891
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
313
85
72
470
340
82
79
501
332
84
84
500
315
86
90
491
277
82
98
457
222
72
106
401
•7%
Personal Computer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
82
28
2
113
97
34
2
133
113
43
3
158
129
52
3
185
144
63
4
210
146
71
4
221
12%
20%
14%
14%
506
315
49%
49%
61%
50%
687
364
204
1,255
-3%
8%
-3%
,
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
3.4.6-3
3.4.6 AEC Revenue Source
Table 3.4.6-2
AEC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Percent of Total)
1985
Alt Product Types
Karchtare
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host-Dependent
Harchiare
Software
Service
Total
Personal Cosiputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1^6
1987
1988
1989
1990
66X
22X
13X
67X
20X
13X
65X
22X
13X
63X
24X
13X
60X
25X
15X
56X
27X
17X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
58X
30%
12X
62%
26X
12X
62X
26X
12X
60X
27X
13X
S8X
28X
14X
55X
29X
16X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
67X
18X
15X
68X
16X
16X
66X
17X
17X
64X
18X
18X
61X
18X
21X
55X
18X
27X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
73X
25X
2X
73X
26X
2X
71X
27X
2X
70X
28X
2X
68X
30X
2X
66X
32X
2X
100X
lom
100X
1Q0X
100X
100%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
3.4.6-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4
Mapping Application^
4.1 Mapping Definitions
The mapping CAD market segment comprises products that are used to create
maps. Figure 4.1-1 shows Dataquest's view of the mapping segment, including the
Steps involved in making maps and the major markets for systems used to create
maps.
MAJOR MARKETS
The types of businesses that would use a mapping system would be those that:
•
Have the responsibility for or ownership of large tracts of land and
resources
•
Have the need to locate discrete or continuous facilities
•
Are concerned with the distribution of customers or services
Each of the major market segments shown in Figure 4.1-1 fits into one or more
of these categories.
We believe that the federal government, with its many agencies and branches,
is the largest user of mapping systems. We also believe that the oil and gas industry
has been (and will continue to be) a major market segment, with its millions of
acres of land and ocean floor to keep track of, along with the locations of wells,
property lines, and topographical information. Most utilities and local governments
have found the cost of a mapping system far too prohibitive and, therefore, do not
yet constitute a large portion of the overall market.
Dataquest believes that mapping systems are gaining widespread use among
the world's cartographers, surveyors, civil engineers and site planners,
photogrammetrists, geophysicists, utilities engineers, and a range of other types of
users.
SYSTEM FUNCTIONALITY AND OUTPUT
As shown in Figure 4.4-1, the most common output of a mapping system is a
map, which might include topographical (contour) maps, seismic maps,
parcel/property maps, utility maps, street network maps, thematic maps, forestry
maps, and planimetric maps. Mapping systems may include the following functions:
•
Line/point geometry capture
•
Polygonal processing
•
Survey traverse entry (COGO)
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.1-1.
4.1 Mapping Definitions
•
Digital terrain modeling/topographic processing
•
Interactive graphics editing
•
Graphic digitizing
•
Edge matching
•
Polygon overlay/retrieval
•
Vector/grid cell conversion
•
Proximal analysis
•
Network analysis
•
Spatial query
•
Coordinate filtering
•
Image processing
•
Transformation
More Than Just a Map
For many users, automation of mapping is just one part of a total information
planning/management process. / ^ equally important function is facilities
management—keeping track of information on geographically dispersed plants and
equipment. Utility companies are a good example. The utilities market segment fits
into the category "have the need to locate discrete or continuous facilities," which
might mean telephone poles and wires In the case of telephone utilities or sewers in
the case of sewer districts. In these environments, maps are one part of an overall
information management effort; these users often place as much as, if not more,
emphasis on the data base management capabilities of a system than on its
graphics capabilities.
Mapping systems that offer strong data base management capabilities are often
referred to as mapping/geographic information systems (M/GIS) or mapping/
facilities management systems (M/FMS). Both types of systems offer the graphics
functionality required for generating maps while also fulfilling a wide range of
information management requirements. Additional capabilities provided in a
full-scale data base management/mapping system might include tabular data entry,
file management, statistical analysis, query/browsing, and report generation.
4.1-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.1 Mapping Definitions
Figure 4.1-1
Mapping
Data Management
Analysis
Editing
Data Capture
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.1-3
4.2 Mapping Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the mapping applications segment.
•
The CAD/mapping market is forecast to grow from $220 million in 1985 to
$720 million in 1990.
•
This segment represents one of the fastest-growing CAD segments in terms
of both system shipments and revenue, with 60 percent and 27 percent
compound annual growth rates, respectively, forecast through 1990.
•
We believe that host-dependent systems will continue to be the
predominant architecture in mapping because of the requirements of many
potential users for large and centralized data bases.
•
We believe that in the long run, data conversion service bureaus will
benefit the most from the market's forecast growth.
•
We also believe that success stories on the part of current users have had,
and will continue to have, a positive influence on the growth of the
mapping segment.
•
Digital's Micro VAX n product will contribute greatly (both as a
host-dependent and as a standalone system) to the growth of the market,
especially since two out of four of the major mapping vendors offer mainly
VAX-based systems.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.2-1
4.3 Mapping Market Overview
HISTORY
Evolution
Dataquest estimates that nearly 75 percent of the installed mapping systems
were sold after 1978, even though the first systems became available during the
early 1970s. Compared with other computer-aided applications (particularly
mechanical and AEG), this timing indicates a much slower acceptance process by
the overall base of potential users of mapping systems. Dataquest believes that
many users had difficulty justifying the switch to a mapping system for the
following two major reasons:
•
High hardware costs
•
The enormous amount of time and expense involved in the conversion
effort from a manual to an automated mapping process (Conversion costs
typically run 5 to 10 times the hardware and software costs.)
Until the late 1970s, computers with large storage capacities were required for
graphics work, particularly for mapping work. Within the past few years, however,
the cost of hardware tools has dropped dramatically, while their capacity for
handling graphics and computation-intensive work has increased significantly. This
has been a boon for mapping vendors and users alike. However, the prohibitive
element still remained—map data conversion. On the average, data conversion costs
represent the largest portion of the overall expenditures in automating a mapping
and record-keeping process. Thus, the process of automating manual mapping
procedures has been far too expensive for many potential users to consider.
CAD, Mapping, or Information Management?
Mapping, like most of the other applications that utilize CAD tools (e.g., EDA,
IC, PCB), demands much more than 2-D drafting functionality (see section
4.1-1 for a list of functions). The earliest mapping systems available from the
traditional CAD vendors automated only those tasks associated with drafting. And
those systems were termed map drafting systems. The traditional CAD vendors that
provided these earliest map drafting systems included Auto-trol, Calma,
Computervision, and Litergraph.
Several vendors, including IBM, Environmental Systems Research Institute
(ESRI), and Synercom Corporation, have adhered to more of a data base
management approach since their entry into the mapping market. We believe that
this approach has begun to work in their favor, as several markets (particularly
utilities and most government sectors) recognized the benefits of using complete
mapping/information management tools. We also believe that these particular
markets divided over the issue of integrated graphics/data base management
systems such that several of the early vendor participants (especially Auto-trol and
Calma) have lost momentum as a result of not addressing the issue.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.3-1
4.3 Mapping Market Overview
Intergraph addressed the information management issue during 1977 and 1978,
first with the Data Management and Retrieval System (DMRS) and later (in 1978)
with a linkage capability between the DMRS and its graphics software offerings. In
addition to addressing the data management issue, Dataquest believes that a
number of other factors have contributed to Litergraphic's success over the years in
the mapping segment. They include:
•
Multifunctional systems incorporating drafting/design capability as well as
mapping-related functionality, which has appealed to the engineeringoriented user markets (i.e., utilities)
•
Early migration to a 32-bit platform based on a proven line of computing
hardware from Digital Equipment Corporation
•
A broad range of solutions for mapping, including extensive graphics
functionality suitable for stringent cartographical requirements
Computervision Corporation has also offered systems for mapping (since the
mid-1970s). Although it immediately became a major force in this market segment
with more than a 30 percent market share during 1979 and 1980, Computervision's
revenue declined sharply in 1983 and have since continued to do so. Dataquest
attributes much of Computervision's downturn in the mapping segment to the
following key factors:
•
Its failure to respond quickly enough to the market's transition from a
16-bit hardware architecture to a 32-bit architecture
•
The company's decision to offer a proprietary hardware platform when
commercially available computers such as Digital Equipment's PDP and
VAX series were gaining widespread acceptance in the general
mapping/CAD market
•
Computervision's limited applications offerings and data base management
functionality
The marketing and product strategies of each of the vendors have naturally
determined how their systems are positioned. Regardless of the terminology used to
describe their respective offerings (e.g., CAD system, mapping system, GIS system,
or FM system), according to Dataquest's definition, the system will always offer a
user the ability to create maps.
4.3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.3 Mapping Market Overview
THE PRESENT
We believe that those vendors that plan to remain competitive in the mapping
segment will be focusing primarily on the issues of improved data base
management/information handling capability and expansion of application
offerings. However, any improvements made to current mapping offerings might
prove futile unless prospective buyers are ready to commit the enormous amounts
of time and money usually required for conversion from manual mapping to
automated mapping practices. In our opinion, the conversion issue is the major
roadblock to growth in this industry segment.
The recent proliferation of conversion service bureaus is allowing more users to
pursue the alternative of automating mapping. Map and record conversion (building
the data base) is the focal point during the early stages of a project. An
unsuccessful conversion process would set a user back in both time and dollars.
Users who defer the conversion process to a service company usually find that
it decreases the inherent risk associated with implementing a mapping system
because the major hardware and software purchases sometimes can be delayed
until the conversion stage is under way or even near completion. Hardware cost
reductions and early obsolescence are critical issues in the evaluation and purchase
of mapping systems.
Existing opportunities for current vendors are:
•
The conversion service market itself as an emerging user market
•
Conversion service companies as vehicles of exposure for mapping
vendors' systems
Conversion service companies are usually equipped with at least one of the
commercially available mapping systems. In some cases, partnership agreements
have been forged between a conversion service and a vendor, allowing the latter to
take advantage of the former's knowledge and expertise in a specific industry.
A prime example is the Synercom/AT&T agreement, which was executed
during February 1985. The contract is based on AT&T's use of Synercom mapping
systems and specialized application software (OPIS 3) for outside plant information
management. AT&T intends to use Synercom's system as a means of establishing a
foothold in the lucrative data conversion business. Telephone companies now have
a single source of contact for their outside plant map and record conversion needs.
This arrangement also gives telephone companies the ability to postpone hardware
and software purchases; AT&T will allow its telephone company customers to
interface with the converted data base through a time-share type of terminal and/or
Synercom workstation. Synercom's exposure in the telephone utility market has
increased considerably as a result of this and similar contract agreements.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.3-3
4.3 Mapping Market Overview
It will always be true that no benefits can be realized from computerized
mapping until the data are converted. Therefore, Dataquest believes that conversion
service companies will benefit handsomely as more users decide to commit the
resources of both time and dollars toward implementing an automated mapping
system (and information management system for some).
TRENDS
We believe that advances in data capture technology and the proliferation of
low-cost microprocessor-based mapping systems will play a major role in the
growth of this segment during the remaining half of this decade. Our forecasts for
growth in this segment are also based on one other major factor—success stories,
which have prompted increased user awareness of the benefits derived from
automating the mapping process.
Low-Cost Systems
With the two-year stint of microprocessor-based workstation announcements
having passed, we believe that many current vendors (as well as new entrants) in
the mapping market will seek to take advantage of the latest standalone and
PC-based hardware by making software available on one or both of these platforms.
As it stands now, this will afford vendors the chance to tap what we believe is a
large potential base of users that have been waiting for a low-cost alternative.
However, what usually denotes a low-cost system today (i.e., engineering
workstation or personal computer) could be very different next year, as the price of
hardware in general continues to decline. Therefore, even a host-dependent system
(which refers to a central CPU and attached workstations) will eventually fall into
the low-cost category, especially when compared with the prices of the past. The
issue will really be one of central versus distributed processing data bases.
Dataquest believes that vendors will need to optimize offerings (particularly
those witli true data base management systems) to address both the central and
distributed processing issues.
Scanner Technology
In no Other application is scanning (automated digitizing) such a critical issue.
We believe that the mapping market will benefit greatly (in terms of increased
growth) once the issues surrounding scanning are resolved. Two of those issues
involve raster-to-vector conversion and the features-recognition capability of a
scanning system. While both have been solved to a great extent, the technology is
extremely costly for many users to even consider. So as this form of data capture
follows the trend of most technology-driven products (i.e., price erosion), we
envision greater throngs of users pursuing the alternative to manual mapping
methods: automated mapping methods.
4.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.1 Total Mapping CAD/CAM
This section covers the total mapping CAD/CAM market for all regions and
product types. Market data are presented in Figures 4.4.1-1 Revenue and
4.4.1-1 Shipments and Table 4.4.1-1.
•
The mapping segment was worth an estimated $220 million in 1985 and is
forecast to grow to $720 million in 1990, a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 27 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will increase 31 percent in 1986, reaching
$288 million.
•
An estimated 432 systems were shipped in 1985; shipments are forecast to
reach 4,572 in 1990, reflecting a 60 percent CAGR through the period.
•
An estimated 1,752 workstations were shipped in 1985; shipments are
forecast to reach 9,762 units in 1990, growing at a 41 percent CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.1-1
4.4.1 Total Mapping CAD/CAM
Figure 4.4.1-1 Revenue
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
720
^^s^x
^^ssS^
640
^
560
480
^^x>,>
400-^
320
k^
^
t$l5$S^,
1^, C V v V
^
^SSS>i
240
160
M
.X'vXV'i
s^--..^%>.
^
^
w»
sH'isiss.
^
80
XV-X^
Sxvv^^
W'-AX
y^M
^
Kvw
• '\ X \ , X
^
vSsks
^
1985
1986
m&^
^
^
tS67
K-Si'^:
ps^-iS^
tx:
1988
'••X-'^^-S^
1989
\X%.\S
'\%,'\W
cC'w:'
X\\>A
\'vW\
1^
^
ss
^>
^>i.
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
4.4.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.1 Total Mapping CAD/CAM
Figure 4.4.1-1 Shipments
Mapping CAD/CAM—Woi;ldwide
Workstation Shipments
10000k -•!.: %. V V '
V-V''»V\
^'W^-X
V%,X:vV
9000
\\v\X
8000
^N'^^^^j
7000-
V ^ ^'•^'
6000
iV'vN
5000
^M
4000
ASW
3000
tw>;
2000
C\XVS"
\
1000
-i,. -'v % %.
XW
•>'N<Xv
7<!^.X
KV'^'\:
igas
19S6
1987
1986
%.'^%.xi
1989
;w
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.1-3
4.4.1 Total Mapping CAD/CAM
Table 4.4.1-1
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Total Applications
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
220
432
1,752
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
720
4.527
9,762
26.7%
60.OX
41.OX
288
375
476
590
2,153
3,866
3,276
5,714
3,661
7,001
4,083
8,425
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
4-4-1-4
© 1 9 8 6 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.2 Mapping Market Shares
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the mapping
market share distribution. Market share data are presented in Figure 4.4.2-1 and
Table 4.4.2-1.
•
Intergraph Corporation continues to dominate the sale of systems used for
mapping.
•
Dataquest attributes Intergraph's dominance in this market during the past
few years to several factors:
—
Early entry into the marketplace
—
Products that serve a wide range of mapping applications
—
Continuous expansion of its product line
—
Proven product line based on Digital Equipment's VAX line with
Intergraph's graphics hardware enhancements
—
Multifunctional systems (CAD for other applications and mapping)
•
Intergraph's 1985 revenue from mapping systems totaled $135 million,
which represented approximately 61 percent of total 1985 revenue for this
application segment.
•
Despite a substantial growth in revenue during 1985, Intergraph lost market
share, falling from a 72 percent share in 1984 to 61 percent in 1985.
•
Dataquest believes that IBM and Synercom Corporation represented one
part of the reason behind Intergraph's substantial loss in market share
during 1985, as both companies experienced significant revenue gains; the
Other side of the equation takes into account the addition of companies to
Dataquest's roster of companies for the mapping segment.
•
These three top companies continue to penetrate the mapping segment with
mostly host-dependent offerings; Intergraph is currently the only company
among the three that does not unbundle software, while Synercom has gone
to the Other extreme by becoming mostly a software vendor (it does still
market its own graphics workstations).
•
The Other Turnkey and Software Companies category
companies that have $15 million or less in total revenue.
•
Dataquest believes that Syscan, of Oslo, Norway, is the largest European
company in the mapping segment (included in the Other European
Companies category), with an estimated $15 million in revenue for 1985.
•
In the Other Far Eastern Companies category, we believe that Fujitsu is the
largest vendor, with an estimated $8 million in revenue for 1985.
GCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
comprises
4.4.2-1
4.4.2 Mapping Market Shares
Figure 4.4.2-1
Mapping Market Share—Worldwide
1985
Computervlslon
2.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 198S
4.4.2-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.2 Mapping Market Shares
Table 4.4.2-1
Mapping M a r k e t Share—Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars)
COMPANY
1985
REVENUE
Intergraph
IBM
Synercom
CoIiputervision
Autodesk
SDRC
Calcomp
Other Computer Companies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey i and Software
All Companies
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
135
26
17
4
1
1
1
1
22
12
1
220
1985
SHARE
61.2%
11.9%
7.7%
2.0%
.6%
.3%
.3%
.4%
9.9%
5.5%
.2%
100.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.2-3
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the mapping
market, segmented by region. The data are presented in Figures 4.4.3-1 Revenue
and 4.4.3-1 Shipments and Tables 4.4.3-1 and 4.4.3-2.
•
We believe that the United States will dominate consumption of mapping
systems through 1990, with revenue of $145 million in 1985, growing to an
estimated $472 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
We expect all of the regions to remain at a fairly constant percentage of
revenue through 1990.
•
Europe had revenue of $47 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow to
$156 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
The Far East segment had $18 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow to
$60 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
The Rest of World segment had $10 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow
to $33 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.3-1
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
Figure 4.4.3-1 Revenue
Mapping CAD/CAM by Region
Millions of Dollars
500
450-
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
1985
taee
1987
1986
WBSf
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
4.4.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the mapping
market, segmented by region. The data are presented in Figures 4.4.3-1 Revenue
and 4.4.3-1 Shipments and Tables 4.4.3-1 and 4.4.3-2.
•
We believe that the United States will dominate consumption of mapping
systems through 1990, with revenue of $145 million in 1985, growing to an
estimated $472 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
We expect all of the regions to remain at a fairly constant percentage of
revenue through 1990.
•
Europe had revenue of $47 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow to
$156 milUon in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
The Far East segment had $18 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow to
$60 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
•
The Rest of World segment had $10 million in 1985 and is forecast to grow
to $33 million in 1990, a 27 percent CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.3-1
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
Figure 4.4.3-1 Revenue
Mapping CAD/CAM by Region
Millions of Dollars
500
North America
Europe
450
400-
A
Far East
X
ROW
350
300
250
200
150
100.
1985
1S86
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
4.4.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
Figure 4.4.3-1 Shipments
Mapping CAD/CAM by Region
Workstation Shipments
6300
5600
4900 ^
4200
3500
2800
2100i
1400
700
1985
1966
1987
1968
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.3-3
4.4.3 Mapping by Region
Table 4.4.3-1
Mapping CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Total HarIcet
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
220
432
1,752
288
2,153
3,866
375
3,276
5,714
476
3,661
7,001
590
4,083
8,425
720
4,527
9,762
26.7X
60.OX
41.OX
Kortti America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
145
201
1,135
189
1,221
2,369
246
2,082
3,751
312
2,077
4,468
387
2,110
5,336
472
2,264
6,263
26.7X
62.3X
40.7X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
47
182
372
62
767
1,097
81
864
1,351
103
970
1,632
127
1,170
1,986
156
1,341
2,251
26.8X
49. IX
43,4X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
18
37
162
24
79
234
31
206
373
40
445
573
49
593
681
60
701
750
26.9X
79.7X
35.9X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
10
12
84
13
87
166
17
125
239
22
168
328
27
211
422
33
221
498
26.7X
80.OX
42.8X
CAGR
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
4.4.3-4
1986 Datequest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.3 M a p p i n g by Region
#
Table 4.4.3-2
Mapping CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
North America
Revenue
Systetns
UorIcstations
66%
47X
65X
66X
57X
61X
66X
64X
66X
66X
57X
64X
66X
52X
63X
66X
SOX
64X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
22X
42X
21%
22X
36X
28X
22X
26X
24X
22X
26X
23X
22X
29X
24X
22X
30X
23X
Far East
ReverKie
Systems
Workstations
8X
9X
9X
8X
4X
6X
8X
6X
7X
8X
12X
8X
8X
15X
8X
8X
15X
8X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
5X
3X
5X
5X
4X
4X
5X
4X
4X
5X
5X
5X
5X
5X
5X
5X
5X
5X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
OCXS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.3-5
4.4.4 Mapping Product Types
The following section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the
C/^/CAM mapping market, segmented by product type. The data are presented in
Figures 4.4.4-1 Revenue and 4.4.4-1 Shipments and Tables 4.4.4-1 and 4.4.4-2.
•
Revenue from host-dependent systems dominated in 1985, accounting for
$215 million, or 98 percent of all mapping revenue.
•
Host-dependent workstation shipments also cdominated
representing 90 percent of all workstation shipment!
•
Dataquest forecasts that host-dependent workstation shipments and revenue
will continue to dominate through 1990, accounting for 63 percent of
workstation shipments and 17 percent of system shipments.
•
We expect a sharp escalation in 1986 in both standalone and personal
computer-based system shipments, as much more software is now available
for mapping applications on these two types of hardware platforms.
•
We believe that sales of standalone workstation-based systems will
eventually outdistance sales of both host-dependent and personal
computer-based systems due to the exceptional price/performance
characteristics of this system architecture.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
in
1985,
4.4.4-1
4.4.4 Mapping Product Types
Figure 4.4.4-1 Revenue
Mapping CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
540-
480
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
420-
360-
300-
240-
180-
120-
60-
Ul
1985
—"^-X1
1986
—A
— i
1987
A
A
i
1
1983
1989
ii
1990
Source: DMaouMi
June 1986
4.4.4-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.4 Mapping Product Types
Figure 4.4.4-1 Shipments
Mapping CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
6300-
5600
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
^
Personal Computer
4900-
4200
3500-
2800
2100
1400
700
1985
1986
1987
1968
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.4-3
4.4.4 M a p p i n g P r o d u c t Types
Table 4.4.4-1
M a p p i n g CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
220
432
1.752
288
2,153
3,866
375
3,276
5,714
476
3,661
7,001
590
4,083
8,425
720
4,527
9,762
26.7X
60.0%
41.0%
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2
26
26
20
201
201
50
512
512
99
1,036
1,036
164
1,724
1,724
256
2,681
2.681
160.9X
152.2%
152.2%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
215
256
1,577
260
328
2,041
311
442
2,880
362
569
3,910
411
691
5,033
451
771
6,006
16.0%
24.7%
30.7%
3
149
149
8
1,624
1,624
14
2,323
2,323
15
2,056
2,056
15
1,668
1,668
13
1,075
1,075
31.9%
48.4%
48.4%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
SOURCE:
4.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CAGR
Dataquest'
June 1986
CCIS Markets
4.4.4 Mapping Product Types
Table 4.4.4-2
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
U
6%
1%
7%
9%
5%
13%
16%
9%
21%
28%
15%
28%
42%
20%
36%
59%
27%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
98%
59X
90%
90%
15%
53%
83%
13%
50%
76%
16%
56%
70%
17%
60%
63%
17%
62%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1%
35%
9%
3%
75%
42%
4%
71%
41%
3%
56%
29%
3%
41%
20%
2%
24%
11%
SOURCE; Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.4-5
4.4.5 Mapping Turnkey Average Prices
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the average price
per seat by product type for the mapping turnkey segment. The data are presented
in Figure 4.4.5-1 and Table 4.4.5-1.
•
We believe that the average price per seat for mapping will decrease from
$97,300 in 1985 to $50,000 in 1990, which represents a negative
12 percent CAGR.
•
Most personal computer-based mapping systems still offer only the
functionality that is inherent in most CAD systems—map drafting; this is
largely the reason behind a relatively low average price per seat of
$16,600 in 1985.
•
We believe that personal computer-based systems will continue to automate
only the mapping applications that do not require high cartographical
standards; therefore, we estimate that the average selling price for these
systems will remain at a fairly constant level through 1990.
•
Host-dependent systems had the highest average price in 1985, at
$107,100 per seat, and will continue to do so until 1988, when the average
price per seat of standalone product types is forecast to be greater, at about
$64,700 per seat, compared with $43,600 per seat for host-dependent
product types.
•
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.5-1
4.4.5 Mapping Turnkey Average Prices
Figure 4.4.5-1
Mapping Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
00-
•
Standalone
•
A
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
80-
60
40-
20L
0-
i-
*
-~
1985
A
A'
1»7
1988
I
- *
11
r
1986
1S83
1990
Source: Dataquest
Jane 1986
4,4.5-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
4.4.5 Mapping Turnkey Average Prices
Table 4.4.5-1
Mapping Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
All Product Types
Standalone
Host-Depeixlent
Personal Coniputer
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
97.3
54.8
107.1
16.6
86.7
73.1
96.1
16.5
71.8
70.9
78.8
.16.4
62.7
68.8
64.7
16.4
55.3
66.7
53.1
16.4
50.0
64.7
43.6
16.3
-^2X
3%
-16%
-0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.5-3
4.4.6 Mapping Revenue Sources
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the mapping
market, segmented by revenue source. The data are presented in Figure 4.4.6-1 and
Tables 4.4.6-1 and 4.4.6-2.
•
We estimate that hardware accounted for 62 percent of total revenue in
1985; we estimate that the hardware portion of revenue will decrease
through 1990 to 44 percent in that year.
•
Software revenue is expected to increase from 22 percent of total revenue
in 1985 to 36 percent in 1990, representing a 40 percent compound annual
growth rate.
•
Revenue from service is also expected to increase as a percentage of total
revenue through 1990. In 1985, service represented 16 percent of revenue,
and in 1990, service is expected to make up 20 percent of total revenue.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.6-1
4.4.6 Mapping Revenue Sources
Figure 4.4.6-1
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
Thousands of Dollars
320
2SD
•
Hardware
•
Software
A
Service
240
200-
1B0-
120
1985
1966
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
•
4.4.6-2
1986 Datequest Incorporated July
eCIS Markets
4.4.6 Mapping Revenue Sources
Table 4.4.6-1
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
Software
Service
Total
137
48
35
220
170
73
45
288
212
103
59
375
255
143
78
476
292
193
106
590
319
256
145
720
18X
40X
33X
27%
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1
1
0
2
10
9
2
20
24
21
4
50
46
44
9
99
73
75
16
164
105
123
29
256
153%
170%
176X
161X
135
45
35
215
157
59
44
260
183
73
55
311
204
89
69
362
216
107
89
411
212
123
116
451
9X
22X
27X
16X
1
2
0
3
3
5
0
8
5
9
0
14
4
10
0
15
4
11
0
15
2
11
0
13X
39X
32X
13
32X
A l l Product Types
Hardware
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Coinputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
4.4.6-3
4.4.6 Mapping Revenue Sources
Table 4.4.6-2
Mapping CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Percent of Total)
1985
A l l Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host.Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Computer
Hart^re
Software
Service
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
59X
25X
16X
57X
28X
16X
54X
SOX
16X
49X
33X
18X
44X
36X
20X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
48X
41X
8X
49X
42X
48X
43X
9X
47X
44X
9X
44X
46X
4tX
48X
11X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
toox
63X
21X
16X
61X
23X
17X
59X
23X
18X
56X
2SX
19X
52X
26X
22X
47X
27X
26X
toox
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
36X
63X
IX
36X
64X
TX
33X
66X
IX
28X
71X
IX
23X
76X
IX
17X
83X
IX
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
62X
22X
16X
100%
ex
tox
Source:
4.4.6-4
1990
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 19^
OCXS Markets
5.1 EDA Definitions
DEFINITION
The electronic design automation (EDA) segment refers to CAD/CAM products
that are typically used in the engineering or design phase of electronic products (as
opposed to the physical layout of the products). EDA system users are most often
electrical engineers.
The most common output of an EDA system is a net list—a logical or
functional description of an integrated circuit, printed circuit board, electronic
system, or product. The output is used to analyze the performance or functionality
of the circuit and is also used in another product design phase to manually or
automatically create the physical layout.
EDA systems may include the following functionalities:
•
Schematic capture
•
Logic simulation
•
Circuit simulation
•
Timing verification
•
Test pattern generation
•
Fault simulation
•
Thermal analysis
•
Net list extraction (NLE)
•
Microprocessor development interfaces
•
Software engineering
•
Engineering documentation
•
Interfaces to external CAD/EDA tools
Because of significant differences between the marketing and product strategies
for EDA, IC, and PCB CAD, Dataquest will continue to differentiate and segment
the electronic CAD/CAM market in this manner. Therefore, by definition, EDA
does not include layout.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.1-1
5.2 EDA Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the EDA applications segment.
•
The EDA market is forecast to, grow from $531 million in 1985 to
$1.3 billion in 1990, representing a 21 percent CAGR.
•
The EDA market is forecast to grow only 19 percent in 1986 because of the
economic conditions of the overall electronics industry and a slowdown in
several vendors' annual revenue.
•
In 1985, the personal computer accounted for 72 percent of all EDA
workstations shipped, but for only 27 percent of all EDA revenue.
•
Standalone workstations, which accounted for 60 percent of all EDA
revenue in 1985 and 27 percent of all workstations shipped, are forecast to
make up 76 percent of all units shipped and 85 percent of all EDA revenue
in 1990.
•
The average selling price per seat for all product types is expected to
decline at a 12 percent CAGR, from $43,000 in 1985 to $23,000 in 1990.
•
Dataquest anticipates much consolidation and retrenching among EDA
vendors, with company roles and product offerings being redefined to
adjust to the high number of vendors.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.2-1
5.3 EDA Market Overview
EDA HISTORY
Prior to 1981, the emphasis of electronic CAD/CAM vendors was primarily on
physical layout applications for both integrated circuits and printed circuit boards.
However, the electronic product design process does not begin with physical layout,
nor does it end with EDA applications.
Until the introduction of the first commercially available EDA product in 1981,
there was a gaping hole in the line of products offered to companies that needed to
automate the electronic product design process. Thus began the EDA segment of
the CAD/C/^M industry—products for engineers that could be used to automate the
engineering process of the product design cycle.
The market has not been the same since then. The depth of product
functionality has expanded from simply straightforward schematics capture and
logic design. New applications such as physical layout were integrated with EDA
functionality. New hardware platforms were born virtually overnight. New
companies entered the market, increasing the ante and the stakes.
Thus, the electronic CAD/CAM market has evolved to encompass EDA. The
needs of the electrical engineers to increase productivity—to make the design cycle
more efficient at the same time as shortening it—are finally being addressed by the
$531 million 1985 market.
WKTi^ DATAQUEST CALLS TT EDA
One of the biggest underlying trends in the entire CAD/CAM market is the
move toward providing computer-aided engineering (C/^) applications. CAE is
used by engineers of all disciplines to automate the engineering and analysis phase
of any product's design cycle. For instance, mechanical engineers apply CAE to
their design tasks using applications such as stress analysis, kinematics, and finite
element analysis. Dataquest believes that the vendors addressing the needs of
electrical engineers have made such a significant impact on the way in which
electronic products are designed, as well as on the CAD products themselves, that
we chose to differentiate CAE for electrical engineers from all other CAE
applications. Hence the term electronic design automation (EDA) for electronic
computer-aided electrical engineering applications.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.3-1
5.3 EDA Market Overview
EDA AND LAYOUT DISTINCTIONS
The leading EDA vendors' first product lines consisted of schematics capture.
Shortly after introduction, schematics capture grew to encompass logic design, with
various forms of analysis, simulation, and verification. Dataquest distinguishes
between schematics capture and logic design by the following definitions:
•
Schematics capture is the ability to graphically draw the electrical
schematics, or logic diagram, of a product primarily for documentation
purposes.
•
Logic design includes schematics capture plus the ability to associate
electrical parameters with the graphic schematic symbols, facilitating
analysis and simulation.
Logic design is the more comprehensive of the two applications because it
maintains information such as power, timing, and performance.
The three leading companies in 1985 also included printed circuit board and/or
integrated circuit physical layout applications product lines.
Companies with physical layout products as their original entry into the ECAD
market have also expanded their product functionality to include logic design.
While we recognize that several leading physical layout companies have had
schematics capture capabilities for many years, we distinguish between schematics
capture as documentation and schematics capture as logic design with electrical
connectivity.
Because EDA and physical layout functions can be highly integrated, especially
with automatic layout dependent on EDA data, it is impossible to separate
completely the two applications. Electronic product design does not end with logic
design. Tiierefore, it is important to note the following regarding Dataquest's EDA
segmentation:
•
The EDA estimates and forecasts are for systems with EDA applications
only.
•
The EDA chapter refers to functionality. It is also applicable to IC and PCB
physical layout products and segments and their respective chapters in this
binder.
THE UNDERLYING ISSUES
Dataquest believes that technology is the key driver in the EDA segment, with
marketing and sales acting as the vehicle in which it is delivered to the end user. As
is most often the case when technology is the driver, an abundance of alternatives
emerges when different avenues of product development are explored.
5.3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.3 EDA Market Overview
The design choices presented by EDA products are many and varied. However,
Dataquest believes that there are two clearly defined underlying issues steering the
market. These issues are:
•
Applications
•
Hardware
Applications
The electrical engineering community has an insatiable appetite for EDA
applications software, while the EDA vendors push the limits of technology and
R&D to deliver solutions. Dataquest believes that the most significant and
successful application development efforts are directed toward the following:
•
Hierarchical design
•
Analysis
•
Test functions
•
Integration
Hierarchical Design
We believe that it is imperative that EDA systems take advantage of
hierarchical design methodologies because of:
•
Increasing circuit complexity
•
Application-specific designs
•
The need to share design data among functional organizations within a
company and/or with a company's outside manufacturer
The definition and implementation of hierarchical design has evolved as the
EDA products themselves have matured. It involves a circuit or product design
occurring in increasing levels of detail, with each new level directly correlating with
the levels below and above it. In this way, engineers are not forced to deal with or
manage massive amounts of detail without first visualizing the concept of the
product.
The significance of hierarchical design is that it facilitates delegating design
responsibility among many engineers and it allows the design to be analyzed in
varying stages of completion. Successful EDA products allow users to implement
their own variation of hierarchical design methodologies. In this way, users can take
advantage of existing analysis and simulation products.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.3-3
5.3 EDA Market Overview
Analysis
Perhaps even more significant than actual design methodology is the ability to
analyze the design. Is it behaving correctly? Is it functionally doing what it was
intended to? Is it performing to specification?
Circuit analysis involves simulating a design using software models and stimuli.
It allows engineers to determine the details of a design prior to building a hardware
prototype, with the obvious benefits of reducing costs and turnaround time.
The analysis products available can be categorized by the following functional
types:
•
Logic simulation—Functional analysis ranging in level of hierarchy, from
gate- to block-level circuit descriptions
•
Circuit simulation—Transistor-level simulation involving intrinsic electrical
analysis
•
Timing verification—Performance analysis involving the speed at which a
circuit operates
•
Fault simulation—/Analysis of the testability of a circuit involving test
vectors and patterns
Test Functions
While the availability of products that interface design with test is growing,
Dataquest believes that this is one application of EDA that is underdeveloped.
Testing interfaces and automatic test vector generation are receiving a lot of R&D
effort because of the amount of demand from users.
Traditionally, the transition of a design from a design engineer to a test
engineer was a slow, error-prone, and tedious task. The test engineer created
programs or stimuli for test equipment—logic analyzers to automatic test equipment
(ATE)—that determined the correctness of a prototype, breadboard, or volume
production part. It was virtually left up to the test engineer to determine which parts
of the circuit should be tested, without necessarily knowing which paths were
critical to test.
EDA systems, however, generate design data that can be used as input to test
programs by indicating which parts of the circuit should be tested and by specifying
the expected performance. The link between design and test should be automatic
through the design data base itself.
As test software interfaces have become more applicable to the design
environment, testing manufacturers have also developed entry-level test equipment
that operates within the design—not test—environment for immediate prototype
feedback that can be analyzed by the design engineer.
5.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.3 E P A M a r k e t Overview
The importance of testing cannot be underestimated, because as electronic
CAD systems become more effective in dealing with complex product design, they,
in effect, create a bottleneck at the testing phase. By incorporating testing capability
in the initial design phase, i.e., design for testability, the design cycle itself becomes
a closed and controllable loop, from concept to product delivery.
Integration
The proliferation of applications creates a new set of problems that must be
dealt with effectively for EDA products to be productive and useful. The problem is
integration—how to ensure that ECAD applications programs, design tasks, and
people involved with the process can communicate with one another quickly,
efficiently, and error free.
Integrating the entire design process into a cohesive and workable solution has
been a hard, uphill battle for most EDA vendors and users. Litegration has often
been an afterthought, evident by several data bases and editors residing within one
system.
The workaround to a system that is not cleanly integrated is to include data
base extraction products and postprocessors that allow different design tools to
communicate with one another. While this workaround is not the optimal solution,
it does provide a short-term alternative.
Hardware
The EDA segment emerged out of a need for products that solved electrical
engineers' design problems. However, only with the emergence of the standalone,
microprocessor-based workstation could this need be met.
The availability of standalone workstations revolutionized the ECAD market,
including its design solutions and existing price and profit structures. Had the
pioneering companies such as Apollo, Daisy, Sun, and Valid not developed the
hardware vehicle, the EDA revolution might have been delayed for another three
years---until the IBM PC.
Dataquest distinguishes between the hardware and application issues of the
market. It is the application products that meet users' needs and the hardware
products by which they are delivered. Users buy neither hardware nor software.
They buy solutions to design problems, and these solutions are combinations of
hardware and software.
However, hardware technology, implementation, and adaptation are changing
underlying applications strategies. The major cause of this is the personal
computer. The major effect is a dramatic shift in computational alignment—aligning
application requirements with computer capabilities.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.3-5
5.3 EDA Market Overview
The shift has brought about yet another layer of hardware to the EDA
environment—the application accelerator, which decreases the time involved to
complete one or more applications.
Application Accelerators
The EDA segment continues to pioneer hardware innovations and utility.
Application accelerators are another example. We believe that there are three
primary reasons for the development of accelerators:
•
They filled a need that arose from a lack of computing power, first at the
standalone level, then at the personal computer level.
•
They keep computer power distributed and off of hosts and mainframes.
•
They are a way of adding value and profit to product lines.
We believe that application accelerators are a workaround to standalone and
PC performance shortcomings. We see an accelerator as a means to an end, not an
end in itself. For example, we believe that the underlying need is the application,
such as simulation and analysis. The constraint placed on the application need is
that it be performed in an acceptable time frame.
The technology of most (although not all) accelerators is specialized, pipelined
parallel processors that offload the main CPU. They are usually board sets that
plug into the host or are in separate cabinets that communicate with the host. They
generally exist because the original architecture is not capable of, or not configured
to, process background tasks in an effective and timely manner.
Exceptions are accelerators that are optimized to particular applications, either
through firmware or customized silicon. In any case, the exceptions are not
general-purpose hardware and are an integral part of the application's operation.
Customized accelerators are not easy for CPU manufacturers to duplicate for
product enhancements.
TRENDS
The underlying issues—applications and hardware—are also the forces shaping
the future of the EDA segment. (Corporate structures are also changing the way in
which ECAD business is conducted; they are discussed below under "A
Fragmented Market.")
5.3-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.3 EDA Market Overview
Applications
Dataquest believes that product development will continue to focus on the four
levels of products discussed under "Underlying Issues": hierarchical design,
analysis, test, and integration. We identify the following trends that affect each of
these four levels:
•
Single-point data bases that support both logic and physical design with one
interface
•
Hierarchical simulation supporting varying levels of design completion
•
Mixed-mode simulation working with different levels of hierarchy and
simulating varying design representations (such as gate, switch, or
transistor levels)
•
Integration with physical layout for back annotation and design verification
•
Test patterns generated automatically through the design data base,
possibly including logic sensitivity scan design (LSSD) methodology
•
Immediate simulation feedback through either single-point data bases or
application accelerators
•
True systems design capability supporting simulation of multiple chips and
boards, different physical layout representations, and packaging
requirements
•
High-level design synthesis
We believe that the overall theme of application trends is not focused on
product features, but on increased scope. EDA products become an integrated
design management tool set by incorporating not only more design tasks, but also
analysis capabilities at varying degrees of completion. The result is a design
management system—one that meets the needs of a project with many aspects and
requirements.
Hardware Platforms—A Division of Labor
The hardware platforms on which EDA software run are radically changing the
availability and feasibility of design automation for the mass end-user market.
Listed below are the major causes of this change:
•
Personal computers and coprocessors
•
Application accelerators
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.3-7
5.3 EDA Market Overview
•
Decreasing standalone prices
•
High-end standalone systems
In all cases, price and performance are paramount. The trend, however, is
toward the division of labor between the system workhorse and the personal,
desktop design system. To manage this change, we believe that a very flexible and
profit-oriented management style is required for the following reasons:
•
Downward-revised revenue goals due to lower average selling prices
•
Higher unit volumes required to meet revenue goals
•
Revised distribution strategies due to higher volumes
•
Revised support strategies due to larger installed bases and lower average
selling prices
•
Increased competition due to less formidable barriers to entry
The Economics of Labor Division
Two years ago, personal computers were barely considered a design automation
alternative. Today, they threaten the very existence of the original EDA
platform—the standalone workstation. We do not believe that standalones will be
obsoleted by PCs (with or without coprocessors). We believe that what is occurring
is just natural evolution.
It is a simple lesson of supply-and-demand economics. Dataquest believes that
the end-user market will continue to force prices down across the board, especially
where higher prices are unwarranted. End users will also continue to force
increased performance, at a fair price and only when applications require it.
A FRAGMENTED MARKET
Revised corporate strategies are changing the way in which long-term
successful EDA companies will do business. The major corporate changes that we
believe are occurring include:
•
5.3-8
Product development efforts:
—
Platform-free software
—
Open data bases
—
Buy versus make hardware
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.3 EDA Market Overview
•
Marketing strategies
—
Niche versus full functionality
—
Bundled versus unbundled software
•
Strategic alliances
•
Offshore alliances
The thrust of all the strategic decisions above involves adding value to either
the distribution channel or the implementation of design automation systems.
We believe that no one company will be the leading supplier of all design
automation software. Listead, we believe that the following scenario will transpire:
•
Three to five companies will lead as suppliers of end-to-end design
products.
•
Ten to twenty companies will compete with major portions of design
automation products.
•
Five to ten companies will compete with niche products, with only one or
two companies being leaders in any given product niche.
This scenario depicts electronic CAD/CAM companies, not just EDA
applications. We believe that it is important to analyze the market in this way
because of the interdependencies between logic design and physical layout.
Innovative product development will continue to occur. However, we believe
that it will become more difficult for the mass vendor market to exploit innovations
because of current product implementations. For example, once a data structure
and data base are implemented and installed in the customer base, it becomes
nearly impossible to change that structure to take advantage of an integrated,
single-point data base. For this reason, we believe that the EDA and EGAD
segments will continue to be fragmented throughout the decade.
CCIS Marlcets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.3-9
5.4.1 Total EDA CAD/CAM
This section covers the total electronic design automation (EDA) CAD/CAM
market for all regions and product types. Market data are presented in
Figures 5.4.1-1 Revenue and 5.4.1-1 Shipments and Table 5.4.1-1.
•
The EDA segment was worth an estimated $531 million in 1985 and is
forecast to grow to $1,354 million in 1990, a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 21 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will increase only 19 percent in 1986,
reaching $632 million.
•
Dataquest estimates that 14,068 workstations were shipped in 1985.
Shipments are expected to reach 42,895 units in 1990, growing at a
25 percent CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.1-1
5.4.1 Total EDA CAD/CAM
Figure 5.4.1-1 Revenue
EDA CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
1600
1400
1200
1000
SOO
600
400
200
1965
1986
I8ffir
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
JuneT986
5.4.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.1 Total EDA CAD/CAM
Figure 5.4.1-1 Shipments
EDA
CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
45000
40000
35000
m
30000
25000
'^.'^'XV
KXSS
-."''fc % , '•<
20000 A
^
i
15000
^t,
10000
5000
\--
^
I
^
'^
;g$s
•t; 'I
^NvC**
W%^>
^^^\v
•.>:i
SS"
m ^
ICsNJX
ss
1^^^
1S85
i
w
1986
1987
1988
vH
1989
1390
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.1-3
5.4.1 Total EDA CAD/CAM
Table 5.4.1-1
EDA Turnkey
Total Applications
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
Total Harlcet
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
1987
1988
531
632
764
940
14,036
14,068
18,705
18,733
22,785
22,817
27,767
27,803
1989
1,138
34,287
34,320
1990
1,354
42,873
42,895
CAGR
20.6%
25.OX
25.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
/
5.4.1-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.2 EDA Market Shares
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the EDA
CAD/CAM market share distribution. Market share data are presented in
Figure 5.4.2-1 and Table 5.4.2-1.
•
Mentor Graphics and Daisy Systems clearly dominated the 1985 EDA
market with a combined 44 percent of the market.
•
Mentor Graphics continued its role as EDA market leader in 1985.
Dataquest ranks Mentor Graphics' market share at 24 percent, up from its
17 percent share in 1984.
•
Second-ranked Daisy Systems garnered a 20 percent market share in 1985,
up 9 percentage points from its 1984 position.
•
Valid Logic maintained its number three position, capturing 9 percent of
the market, down 2 points from its 1984 market share.
•
Simulation tool vendor Zycad Corporation ranked fourth in the EDA
market with a 5 percent market share.
•
FutureNet captured fifth position with a 4 percent share of the market.
•
Given the fragmented nature of the EDA market, as well as significant
1986 market debuts of companies currently possessing no share of this
market, such as Hewlett-Packard and IBM, we expect this year's market to
be distributed among a larger vendor base.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.2-1
5.4.2 EDA Market Shares
Figure 5.4.2-1
EDA Market Share by Company—Worldwide
1985
Cadnetlx
t%
Silvar-Llsoo
2%
Tektronix
2%
Computervislon
3%
Control Data
3%
Source: Dataquest
June 198«
5.4.2-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.2 EDA Market Shares
Table 5.4.2-1
EDA
M a r k e t Share by Company
(Millions of Dollars)
COMPANY
1985
REVENUE
1985
SHARE
Mentor
Daisy
Valid
Zycad
Futurenet
Control Data
Computervision
Tektronix
Silvar-Lisco
Cadnetix
Calma
Telesis
Racal-Redac
Other Computer Conpanies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey iand Software
All Companies
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
23.9%
20.2%
9.2%
4.9%
3.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.1%
2.1%
1.4%
.7%
.5%
.2%
14.9%
1.9%
3.8%
5.4%
100.0%
127
107
49
26
20
14
13
11
11
8
4
2
1
79
10
20
29
531
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.2-3
5.4.3 EDA Regions
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the EDA market,
segmented by region. Market data are presented in Figures 5.4.3-1 Revenue and
5.4.3-1 Shipments and Tables 5.4.3-1 and 5.4.3-2.
•
North America is expected to dominate regional EDA consumption.
•
We estimate that 1985 North American revenue was $358 million and that
it will grow to $912 million in 1990, a 21 percent CAGR.
•
European revenue was $106 million in 1985 and is forecast to reach
$271 million in 1990, growing at a 21 percent CAGR.
•
The Far Eastern segment was worth $66 million in 1985 and is forecast to
grow at a 21 percent CAGR to reach $169 million in 1990.
•
The rest of the world accounted for $1 million, less than 1 percent of EDA
revenue. We estimate that it will grow to $2 million in 1990, 21 percent
CAGR.
•
We believe that North America, with 67 percent of the total market, will
remain the largest consumer of EDA products because of the two following
interrelated variables:
—
Worldwide distribution of electronic product manufacturers
—
A disproportionate amount of in-house-developed software among the
Japanese electronic product manufacturers
•
The Far East, with 12 percent of worldwide consumption, is not forecast to
increase because of the large amount of in-house software.
•
We expect Europe to maintain a fairly constant 20 percent of worldwide
consumption.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.3-1
5.4.3 EDA Regions
Figure 5.4.3-1 Revenue
EDA CAD/CAM by Region
Millions of Dollars
1000
900
800-^
700
600-^
500
400
300
200-^
100
1985
tms
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
5.4.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.3 EDA Regions
Figure 5.4.3-1 Shipments
EDA CAD/CAM by Region
Workstation Shipments
30000
27000
24000
21000
18000-
15000
12000
9000^
6000
3000
1985
1966
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.3-3
5.4.3 EDA Regions
Table 5.4.3-1
EDA Turnkey
Applications by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
531
14,036
14,068
632
18,705
18,733
764
22,785
22,817
940
27,767
27.803
1,138
34,287
34,320
1,354
42.873
42,895
20.6X
25.0%
25. OX
North America
Revenue
Systems
Uorkstatioiis
358
10,692
10,686
426
13,131
13,154
515
15.957
15,981
633
19,255
19,281
766
23,581
23,606
912
29,219
29,237
20.6X
22.3%
22.3X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
106
2,424
2,422
126
3.241
3,245
153
3,906
3,912
188
4,900
4,907
228
6.212
6,218
271
7,985
7,987
20.7X
26.9X
27. OX
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
66
916
953
79
2,319
2,320
95
2.897
2,899
117
3,577
3,579
142
4,449
4,451
169
5,612
5,613
20.7%
43.7X
42.6X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1
5
6
1
14
14
1
25
25
t
36
36
2
45
46
2
57
58
20.5%
64.0X
57.6%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
5.4.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.3 EDA Regions
Table 5.4.3-2
EDA Turnkey
Applications by Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1986
67X
76%
1987
1988
1989
1990
76%
67%
70%
70%
67%
70%
70%
67%
69%
69%
67%
69%
69%
67%
68%
68%
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
20%
17%
17%
20%
17%
17%
20%
17%
17%
20%
18%
18%
20%
18%
18%
20%
19%
19%
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
12%
7%
7%
12%
12%
12%
12%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.3-5
5.4.4 EDA Product Types
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the EDA market,
segmented by product type. Market data are preseneted in Figures 5.4.4-1 Revenue
and 5.4.4-1 Shipments and Tables 5.4.4-1 and 5.4.4-2.
•
Standalone revenue in 1985 was $317 million and will grow at an
estimated 29 percent CAGR to reach $1,149 million in 1990.
•
Standalone workstation shipments totaled 3,864 units in 1985 and are
forecast to reach 32,421 units in 1990, growing at a CAGR of 53 percent.
•
Revenue from host-dependent systems was $71 million in 1985 and is
forecast to decline to $26 million in 1990, decreasing at a CAGR of
-18 percent.
•
Host-dependent workstation shipments totaled 114 units in 1985 and are
forecast to decrease at a 16 percent CAGR to 48 units in 1990.
•
PC revenue in 1985 was $143 million and is expected to reach
$211 million in 1990, a CAGR of 8 percent.
•
PC shipments totaled 10,089 units in 1985 and are forecast to grow at less
than a 1 percent CAGR to reach 10,425 units in 1990.
•
The EDA segment is by far dominated by revenue derived from standalone
sales.
•
Host-dependent products play virtually no role in the EDA segment for two
reasons:
—
Price-sensitivity and price-elasticity market requirements
—
Distributed processing requirements with equal performance for all
users
•
The PC's major role will be in entry-level schematics entry products, with
limited analysis capabilities.
•
PCs with application-Specific hardware add-ons (i.e., coprocessors) will be
capable of assuming more computationally intensive tasks.
•
Networking, communications, and data base management are key issues
with the large number of distributed systems.
•
We believe that the growth rate of standalone systems will continually
increase as a result of improved price/performance ratios, i.e., a decrease
in average selling prices.
•
Host-dependent systems will be used for batch analysis jobs and relieved of
interactive graphics applications.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.4-1
5.4.4 EDA Product Types
Figure 5.4.4-1 Revenue
EDA CAD/CAM by Product Type
MIIIIons of Dollars
1400-
1200
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Connputer
1000
800
600
400
200
1985
1S66
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataouest
June 1986
5.4.4-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.4 EDA Product Types
Figure 5.4.4-1 Shipments
EDA CAD/CAM by Product Type
Workstation ShiprrIGnts
36000 -
32000
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Connputer
28000
24000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
1985
1986
1987
1968
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.4-3
5.4.4 EDA Product Types
Table 5.4.4-1
EDA Turnkey
Application by Product Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Totst Market
Reverue
Systems
Worlcstatfons
531
14,036
14,068
632
18,705
18,733
764
22,785
22,817
940
27,767
27,803
1,138
34,287
34,320
1,354
42,873
42,895
20.6X
25.0%
25. OX
StwKlatane
Revenue
Systems
Itorlcstations
317
3,864
3,864
416
6,606
6,606
532
9,874
9,874
698
15,063
15,063
902
22,414
22.414
1,149
32,421
32,421
29.4X
Host-D^endent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
71
83
114
49
61
90
43
58
90
39
55
90
33
44
77
26
26
48
•18.3X
-20.6X
-15.8X
143
10,089
10,089
167
12,037
190
12.853
12,037
12,853
204
12,650
12,650
202
11,830
11,830
179
10,425
10,425
4.6X
.7X
.7X
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
SOURCE:
5.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CAGR
53.OX
53.OX
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
5.4.4 EDA Product Types
Table 5.4.4-2
EDA Turnkey
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
60%
28%
27%
66%
35%
35%
70%
43%
43%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
13%
1%
1%
8%
0%
0%
6%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
27%
72%
72%
26%
64%
64%
25%
56%
56%
22%
46%
45%
18%
35%
34%
13%
24%
24%
79%
65%
65%
74%
54%
54%
85%
76%
76%
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.4-5
5.4.5 EDA Turnkey Average Prices
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the average selling
price per seat for an EDA turnkey system. Average selling prices are presented in
Figure 5.4.5-1 and Table 5.4.5-1.
•
We expect the average selling price for all product types to decline from
$43,000 in 1985 to $22,800 in 1990, decreasing at a 12 percent CAGR, as
a result of both the large number of vendors offering EDA capability and
the industry-wide shift toward lower-cost workstations.
•
We expect a 17 percent decrease in the average price per standalone seat,
from $62,700 in 1985 to $25,200 in 1990. We believe that this will be a
consequence, of the introduction of lower-cost standalone workstations, as
well as of a sharp decline in the price of EDA software, which we believe is
becoming almost a commodity item in the ECAD market.
•
Consistent with this shift, the average price per seat for host-dependent
systems will decline at a CAGR of 16 percent, from $333,400 in 1985 to
$141,400 in 1990, according to our estimates. We also believe that the
price/performance advantages of standalones and the popularity of
personal computers are eroding the market for and the price of,
host-dependent EDA workstations.
•
We expect a 12 percent decline in the average price per seat for personal
computers, from $25,300 to $13,600 in 1990. This will be the slowest
decline for all product types and will be a result of two unique data
management, computational, and communications requirements this
application imposes on the personal computer.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.5-1
5.4.5 EDA Turnkey Average Prices
Figure 5.4.5-1
EDA Turnkey
Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
320
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
280
240
200-
120
80
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
5.4.5-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.5 EDA Turnkey Average Prices
Table 5.4.5-1
EDA Turnkey
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
All Product Types
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Computer
1985
1986
1987
43.0
62.7
333.4
25.3
38.3
48.3
298.0
22.7
33.7
41.1
247.5
20.7
1989
1990
CAGR
26.0
29.7
34.9 • 29.7
170.3
205.4
16.0
18.4
22.8
25.2
141.4
13.6
-12X
-17%
-16%
-12%
1988
Source; Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.5-3
5.4.6 EDA Revenue Sources
This section covers Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the EDA market,
segmented by source of revenue for each product type. Revenue data are presented
in Figure 5.4.6-1 and Tables 5.4.6-1 and 5.4.6-2.
•
We expect hardware revenue for all product types to decline from
53 percent of total revenue in 1985 to 42 percent in 1990.
•
Software revenue, which accounted for 40 percent of total EDA revenue in
1985, will grow at a 25 percent CAGR to account for 47 percent of total
1990 revenue. We believe that this shift reflects increased emphasis on
applications and data base management issues rather than on hardware
platforms, which are becoming standardized.
•
We expect service revenue to grow at a 32 percent CAGR between
1985 and 1990. We believe that this grov^h in service revenue reflects
response to user demand for increased application support.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
5.4.6-1
5.4.6 EDA Revenue Sources
Figure 5.4.6-1
EDA CAD/CAM
Revenue by Product Type
Millions of Dollars
720-^
640
•
Hardware
•
Software
A
Service
560
480
400
320
240
160
80
T
1985
1986
1987
1988
1969
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
5.4.6-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
5.4.6 EDA Revenue Sources
Table 5.4.6-1
EDA CAD/CAM
Revenue by Product Type
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Software
Service
Total
282
212
37
531
336
252
44
632
394
315
56
764
462
403
75
940
521
512
104
563
642
149
1,138
1,354
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
U9
141
27
317
204
177
35
416
254
230
47
532
321
311
66
698
391
416
95
902
456
552
141
1,149
40
24
7
71
25
19
5
49
21
17
5
43
17
17
5
39
12
16
5
33
7
15
5
26
-30%
-10%
93
47
3
143
107
56
3
167
119
67
4
190
124
76
4
204
119
80
4
202
100
76
4
1%
10%
5%
179
5%
CAGR
A l l Product Types
Hardware
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Coniputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Source:
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
15%
25%
32%
21X
25%
31%
39%
29%
-8%
-18%
Dataquest
June 1986
5.4.6-3
5.4.6 EDA Revenue Sources
Table 5.4.6-2
EDA CAD/CAM
Revenue by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
A t t PFoduit Types
Marc&iare
software
Service
Totat
1986
1987
53X
40X
7X
100X
52X
41X
7X
100X
49X
43X
S0i
100%
4»
45X
9X
100X
42X
47X
11X
100X
47X
49X
43X
8X
100X
48X
43X
9X
100X
4&X
45X
9X
100X
43X
46X
40X
48X
12X
100X
toox
SIX
39X
10X
44X
44X
12X
100X
37X
49X
14X
100X
26X
56X
18X
100X
61X
37X
2X
59X
39X
2X
lOffiC
56X
42X
45%
8X
100X
Host-Depenctent
Harcbtare
Software
Sei*vice
Total
56X
34X
10X
100X
toox
48X
41X
11X
100X
65X
33X
64X
34X
^X
35X
2X
2X
10QX
toox
toox
2X
10QX
tix
Source:
5.4.6-4
1990
53X
40X
7X
100%
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal CoRiputer
Harcftiare
Software
' Service
Total
1989
1988
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
2X
1Q(»
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
6.1 IC Definitions
DEFINITIONS
The Integrated Circuit (IC) CAD/CAM market segment comprises products that
are used to create geometric descriptions of integrated circuits. The output of an IC
CAD system is data to be read by or formatted for a pattern generation device. By
definition, an IC CAD system's output is pattern generation data.
The scope of the IC CAD segment includes the following types of products,
functionalities, and methodologies:
•
Mask geometry creation and editing
•
Layout verification, including:
—
Design rule checking
—
Electrical rule checking
—
Net list comparison
•
Gate array place and route
•
Cell place and route
•
Silicon compilation
•
PLA compilation
•
Symbolic layout
•
Spacing and compaction
Dataquest references two distinct classes of IC design methodology:
handcrafted and automatic. Handcrafted IC design methodologies refer to products
on which a layout designer physically creates the geometric description of the
circuit's transistors based on a schematic typically created by an IC design
engineer. Handcrafted design methodologies require extensive graphics editing
capabilities, regardless of whether symbolic transistor representations are used.
Conversely, automatic IC design methodologies refer to products that will
automatically create mask geometries based on logical or functional descriptions,
without the manual intervention of a layout designer. Included in this subsegment
are gate array or cell-based place and route products, silicon compilers, and PLA
compilers. The distinguishing factor is the integration and close coupling of the
logical and physical circuit descriptions.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.1-1
6.1 IC Definitions
Dataquest differentiates EC AD products based on the system's output; either
logical/functional net lists or physical descriptions. With the development and
acceptance of automatic IC layout products—and by their definition they include
close coupling and integration of logical or functional descriptions with physical
descriptions—IC CAD products may include EDA functionality. Depending on the
nature of the product and the degree of integration, an automatic IC CAD product
may also include the ability to describe the chip's functionality. This description
may be in the form of gate, functional, architectural, or language levels.
6-1-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.2 IC Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the IC C/UD/CAM applications segment.
•
The IC CAD market is growing frorri $198 million in 1985 to an estimated
$762 million in 1990, representing a 31 percent compound annual growth
rate (CAGR).
•
The scope of IC CAD products is quickly changing from high-priced,
host-dependent, polygon-pusher systems to lower-priced, standalone
systems that are coupled with front-end design and provide some degree of
automatic layout.
•
We expect the average selling price per seat to decrease 9 percent from
$92,100 to $58,900 between 1985 and 1990.
•
Dataquest believes that design alternatives that focus on solutions to
end-users' problems are essential for vendors selling IC CAD products.
•
As the number of design alternatives increases, the segment is becoming
crowded with vendors, implying that:
—
Traditional vendors' market share positions are being challenged and
threatened
—
Relationships with silicon manufacturers are critical to IC design
—
Product lines need to be broad and deep to keep pace with integrated
circuit alternatives
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.2-1
6.3 IC Market Overview
HISTORY
Evolution
Unlike any other CAD/C/\M application, IC CAD is required for integrated
circuit product design. Virtually no VLSI can be designed without the use of CAD
in some form or another. The sophistication, complexity, and capabilities of
IC CAD/CAM products must maintain equal or near pace with the nature of the
products being designed.
Gordon Moore of Intel Corporation has a theory that the number of transistors
per integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years, and IC CAD/CAM
products, too, have evolved in that way. From the early 1970s, IC CAD systems
have evolved from comparatively simple digitizing systems to "polygon-pushers"
with full manual editing functionalities of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and from
these products to the current sophisticated placement and routing products for
application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Today, commercially available
silicon compilers are adding yet another dimension to the complexity and
sophistication of IC C/VD/CAM tools.
Shifts in Focus
The IC CAD segment has long been dominated by Applicon, Calma, and
Computervision with their "polygon-pushers" and manual editing systems.
However, systems offering automated design methodology alternatives, particularly
for gate array and cell-based implementations, are gaining in popularity.
IC CAD vendors have neglected the logical and functional IC design issues by
primarily focusing on physical layout or mask geometries. Product development and
enhancements have tended to concentrate on layout and performance issues, such
as:
•
Graphics
•
Editing
•
Design rule checking
•
Pattern generation
•
General program operations
However, by virtually ignoring design automation solutions for IC design
engineers, traditional IC CAD vendors have neglected to protect their customer
bases by not providing a continuous stream of new and related products. As a
result, several new companies were formed to address specifically electronic design
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.3-1
6.3 IC Market Overview
automation (EDA) applications. These companies—particularly Daisy, Mentor, and
Valid—have provided front-end engineering design automation solutions to the
customer bases of the traditional IC CAD vendors, thus eroding the traditional
vendors' customer bases.
Pricing Umbrellas
Average system and workstation prices have historically been on the high side,
for several reasons:
•
Unavailability of lower-priced hardware with adequate performance and
storage capacity
•
A critical requirement for CAD, with no alternative methodologies or
products
•
Relatively few competing vendors
An umbrella was created for new products and vendors to enter the market
with lower-priced solutions due to what seemed unreasonably priced products. As a
result, several new companies were formed with lower average selling prices as
their main product strategies. However, the market leaders' dominance prevailed.
Those entering the market on a price basis alone discovered that they could not
compete effectively against the established vendors, at least not to any meaningful
degree. The three companies that entered the market segment with lower prices as
their primary differentiation were Avera, Metheus, and Via. Avera is now out of
business, and Metheus and Via have redefined their product strategies so that price
is no longer their primary product differentiation.
THE PRESENT
IC CAD products are no longer available from a limited number of vendors.
Newly established entrants bring new ideas—methodologies, interfaces, strategic
alliances, hardware platforms—to a market that was formerly dominated by three
vendors. With nearly 20 companies currently offering IC physical layout solutions,
IC CAD is no longer considered magical or mystical—just difficult.
Automatic Layout
Traditional IC CAD vendors failed to react quickly to the marketing
opportunities for ASIC design and layout tools. Dataquest believes that this
occurred for several reasons:
•
6.3-2
Primary focus on performance enhancements to manual editing functions
and related analysis
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.3 IC Market Overview
•
Lack of integrated and closely coupled front-end EDA products
•
Concentration on the solution, not the problem
As such, end-users' ASIC CAD needs were first addressed by companies other
than the traditional vendors.
The high degree of expertise and knowledge required to develop ASIC CAD
products brought about yet another rash of companies—both semiconductor
companies and CAD vendors—entering the IC CAD segment.
Methodology
With new companies come new design methodologies. The IC CAD market has
evolved from one commercially available methodology—manual editing—to a
variety of choices. The choice of design methodology is due in part to the ASIC
market itself, as well as to evolving CAD techniques. Dataquest tracks three major
IC design methodologies:
•
Manual editing
•
Place and route
•
Silicon compilation
Each methodology offers users varying degrees of automation, integration,
process dependence, and creativity, /^alyses and forecasts for each of the above
methodologies will be published in subsequent Dataquest newsletters and service
sections.
A Buyer's Market
In only five short years, the number of vendors selling IC layout solutions has
increased dramatically. Dataquest recognizes three distinct groups of companies
offering layout solutions. These groups are listed below, with a representative
sample of companies in each classification:
•
Traditional
—
Applicon
—
Calma
—
Computervision
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.3-3
6.3 IC Market Overview
•
•
Functionality challengers
—•
Daisy
—
Mentor
—
SDA
—
Seattle Silicon
—
Silicon Compilers
—
Silicon Design Labs
—
Silvar-Lisco
—
Tangent
---
Valid
Semiconductor companies
—
AMI
—
IMP
—
LSI Logic
—
VLSI Technology
Each type of company offers its users distinct, although sometimes
overlapping, advantages and disadvantages, as described in Table 6.3-1.
6.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.3 IC M a r k e t Overview
Table 6.3-1
Strengths and Weaknesses of
IC C A D Companies by Classification
Company Type
Weaknesses
strengths
Traditional
Large installed base
Manual editing
PG interfaces
Mature and stabilized
products
Automatic layout
Functionality
Challengers
EDA integration
Assorted methodologies
ASIC focus
Foundry interfaces
Hardware platforms
Young and evolving
products
Semiconductor
Process expertise
EDA integration
Manufacturability
guarantee
Process dependent
Few manufacturing
alternatives
Design security
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
Hardware Platforms
Hardware platforms have begun to play an important role in penetrating the
end-user market. As recently as two years ago, almost 100 percent of IC CAD
systems shipments were based on host-dependent architectures. (Refer to
Section 6.4.1 for Dataquest forecasts and analysis of the IC CAD segment by
product type.)
Standalone Workstations
With the introduction of standalone workstations for IC applications came the
inherent benefits of standalones, listed below:
•
Lower incremental cost, thus more affordability
•
Distributed processing, thus maintaining constant performance levels
regardless of the number of users (except in the case of large file transfers)
•
Computational alignment, thus delegating design responsibilities according
to system performance capabilities
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.3-5
6.3 IC Market Overview
Nearly all of the functionality challengers offer standalone product
architectures, as do most semiconductor challengers. In response to competition,
Calma and Computervision now offer standalone workstations in addition to their
traditional host-dependent systems.
Dataquest believes that standalone workstations will continue to play an
increasing role in IC CAD applications; however, we recognize that they are not
without their limitations, as listed below:
•
Inadequate for placing and routing large circuits
•
Slow when transferring large design files between engineers and layout
designers
Host Dependent
Although host-dependent systems will continue to be used for IC design,
Dataquest estimates that by 1990 they will account for only 2 percent of all
IC CAD revenue, declining from 50 percent in 1985. We believe that
host-dependent products will be used mainly as computational engines, especially
for automatic layout applications.
However, with the introduction of Digital's Micro VAX n, IBM's RT PC, and
Apollo's DN3000, Dataquest believes that there are very few host-dependent
alternatives, except for IBM and its 4300 and 308X series.
Personal Computers
Due to large IC design data bases and their extensive storage requirements,
Dataquest believes that personal computers will not play a major role in the
IC CAD segment. Furthermore, due to the design process itself, it is difficult to
partition the design into sizes small enough to be managed by personal computers.
We believe that the present role of the personal computer is limited to the
design or compilation of programmable logic arrays (PLAs), because these devices
are typically small enough to be handled by a personal computer.
To further substantiate this point, we know of isolated cases where it is possible
to run efficiently IC CAD programs on a PC. However, because the value of the
software disproportionately exceeds the value of the hardware, we do not believe
that vendors will be able to receive an adequate return on their R&D, support,
marketing, and sales investments to justify pursuing the PC as a viable hardware
alternative.
Although we recognize that there will be exceptions, we believe that the
majority of ICs will not be physically designed on a PC, even though at the logical
level they could be designed on a PC.
6.3-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
OCXS Markets
6.3 IC Market Overview
TRENDS
The market will continue to explore and develop products for new design
methodologies. Li general, any company considering entering the IC CAD segment
and developing an IC CAD tool must provide an automated solution with clearly
defined productivity benefits.
Because of highly automated and integrated layout tools, the layout design
cycle bottleneck once again is decreasing. As such, Dataquest believes that a
secondary focus (second to methodology) will concentrate on developing layout and
layout analysis tools that improve on one or more of the following:
•
Hierarchical data bases
•
Logic, transistor, test, and layout integration
•
Interactive place, route, simulation, and analysis
•
Improved graphics and processing performance
•
Project management and revision control
•
Physical as well as behavioral model libraries
User-Controlled Layout
Dataquest believes that silicon manufacturers will begin to rely more on the
users and the users' systems to perform layout. However, we believe that this will
happen over time, as the following events occur:
•
Layout programs stabilize to the point that they can be maintained,
supported, and documented
•
Process-independent programs incorporate enough process information to
produce manufacturable circuits
•
More users feel secure that they actually can perform layout, especially
users that are not among the elite group of experienced IC designers
•
Users feel confident regarding the manufacturability of a circuit in which
they performed the layout
•
Hardware performance increases and provides acceptable levels of
interaction and response times
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.3-7
6.3 IC Market Overview
Third-Party Deals
Due to large R&D investments and expenses required for IC layout product
development, we believe that more and more niche products will appear and
succeed in the marketplace. Niche products may take the form of a layout
methodology, routing, layout verification, or interfaces between IC design cycles.
Dataquest believes that most niche companies will opt for third-party
distribution agreements out of necessity, due to large distribution expenses.
However, we do not believe that a third-party agreement with any one particular
company is a long-term competitive advantage for the mainstream IC CAD vendor,
because of:
•
The nature of niche companies and their need for distribution alternatives
•
The fact that competitors will soon have the same product, or at least the
same functionality, thus negating any advantage
Expanded Functionality
As all electronic CAD segments improve in terms of user acceptance, human
engineering, connectivity, performance, and functionality, Dataquest believes that
design data bases for both integrated circuits and printed circuits will merge into
one. We believe that ASICs are the primary reason that this phenomenon will
occur.
Future applications products, especially PCBs, will have to interface with
IC products at some level so that the pins, power requirements, and performance of
the custom IC can be integrated and simulated during printed circuit board design.
Dataquest believes that prime candidates to address this phenomenon will be
companies that already have both custom IC and PCB applications product lines,
due to the large development, support, and marketing efforts required of each
application.
6.3-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.1 Total IC CAD/CAM
This section covers the total integrated circuit (IC) CAD/CAM market for all
regions and product types and refers to Figures 6.4.1-1 Revenue and
6.4.1-1 Shipments and Table 6.4.1-1.
•
The IC segment reached an estimated $198 million in 1985 and is forecast
to grow to $762 million in 1990, at a compound annual growth rate of
31 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will increase 16 percent in 1986, reaching
$230 million.
•
Workstation shipments in 1985 were an estimated 1,419 units; shipments
are expected to reach 8,945 units in 1990, growing at a 45 percent CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.1-1
6.4^1 Total IC CAD/CAM
Figure 6.4.1-1 Revenue
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
800
720
640
560
480
400
320
240
160
%ms
1986
1987
1968
1S89
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.1-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.1 Total IC CAD/CAM
Figure 6.4.1-1 Shipments
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
10000
9000
pr^^
8000
KS:^
t^ '^^ ^^!
7000
^
m
<^
6000
C'-
5000
>:?$^
^ ^ : ^
1, -^ -V -v \ •
rsV-'-V
4000
K ^
''ii, " \ %
%-•
^^|?|
'AL ^ .
% _ ••^
f. •^j'J •'•'r. ^ j
•'"
3000
•\
V ''••,., ' ^
-'f.
v<W";
fe#i
2000
^ ^
1000
sSSS
sm^
1985
•^'vW^'
1986
1987
1988
1989
ill
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.1-3
6.4.1 Total IC CAD/CAM
Table 6.4.1-1
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
=S3S
SSS3.
3SSS
ssss
ssss
ssss
S=B=
198
230
292
392
543
762
1,196
1,419
1,753
1,950
2.723
2,881
4.164
4,280
6,121
6.197
8.903
8,945
30.9%
49.4X
44.5%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.1-4
© 198.6 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.2 IC Market Shares
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the IC CAD/CAM
market share distribution and refers to Figure 6.4.2-1 and Table 6.4.2-1.
•
Calma continues to lead the IC CAD market in terms of revenue and
system shipments, with nearly a 28 percent market share, down from
42 percent in 1984.
•
Daisy moved into second place in 1985 with its market share estimated at
approximately 14 percent.
•
Applicon, the number two market leader in 1984, slipped to number six
with a 2.3 percent market share in 1985.
•
Computervision ranked number three, with approximately a 9 percent
share of the 1985 market.
•
As the market moves toward higher degrees of automation and integration,
Dataquest believes that the market shares of the traditional IC CAD
vendors (Applicon, Calma, and Computervision) are being eroded.
•
Daisy, Mentor, and Valid are carving away at the traditional IC CAD
positions of Applicon, Calma, and Computervision due to their standalone
or automatic layout products.
•
We expect new product announcements incorporating more automatic
layout functionality and tightly coupled front-end design functions from
virtually all IC CAD vendors.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.2-1
6.4.2 IC Market Shares
Figure 6.4.2-1
IC Market Share—Worldwide
1985
Tel<tronlx
1.6%
Scientific
Calculations
1.7%
Appllcon
2.3%
Control Data
2.3%
SHvar-Llsco
3.7%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.2-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.2 IC M a r k e t Shares
Table 6.4.2-1
IC Market Share—Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars)
COMPANY
Calma
Daisy
Computervision
Mentor
Valid
Silvar-Lisco
Control Data
Applicon
Scientific Call:uIat ions
Tektronix
Racal-Redac
Other Computer Companies
Other Far East Companies
Other Turnkey and
i Software
All Companies
1985
REVENUE
1985
SHARE
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
27.7%
13.6%
8.9%
5.0%
4.1%
3.7%
2.3%
2.3%
1.7%
1.6%
55
27
18
10
8
7
5
5
3
3
1
1
21
35
198
.3%
.3%
10.8%
17.7%
100.0%
"
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.2-3
6.4.3 IC Regions
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the IC CAD/CAM
market segmented by region and refers to Figures 6.4.3-1 Revenue and
6.4.3-1 Shipments and Tables 6.4.3-1 and 6.4.3-2.
•
North American CAD/CAM revenues were $123 million in 1985 and are
forecast to grow to $473 million in 1990, at a 31 percent CAGR.
•
In 1985, European CAD/CAM revenues were $37 million and, growing at a
CAGR of 31 percent, are expected to reach $143 million in 1990.
•
Far Eastern CAD/CAM revenues were $35 million in 1985 and are
forecast to grow to $135 million in 1990, at a 31 percent CAGR.
•
The rest of the world consumed $3 million worth of CAD/CAM in 1985,
and revenues are forecast to grow at a 31 percent CAGR to reach
$12 million in 1990.
•
Dataquest believes that North America will dominate consumption of
IC CAD systems through 1990, with a relatively constant 62 percent of
worldwide shipments.
•
The Far East, with 18 percent of worldwide consumption, is not forecast to
increase due to the large amount of in-house-developed software used by
the major IC manufacturers.
•
Although the majority of vendors are actively establishing non-U. S.
marketing organizations if they have not already, Dataquest does not
anticipate any major shifts in current worldwide consumption of IC CAD
systems, basically due to the distribution of IC manufacturers and
consumption of ICs.
•
We expect Europe to maintain a fairly constant 19 percent of worldwide
shipments and consumption.
•
IC manufacturers, particularly in Japan, tend to regard CAD tools as a
proprietary, competitive advantage, as they do general manufacturing
processes.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.3-1
6.4.3 IC Regions
Figure 6.4.3-1 Revenue
IC CAD/CAM by Region
Millions of Dollars
500
North America
Europe
450
400
A.
Far East
X
ROW
350-
309
2sa
200
150
10©
50
->^
o¥
19S5
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source; Dataquest
Junt 19S6
6.4.3-2
1986 Datequest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.3 IC Regions
Figure 6.4.3-1 Shipments
IC CAD/CAM by Region
Workstation Shipments
5400-
•
North America
•
Europe
Far East
4800-
X
ROW
4200 i
3600-
3000-
2400-
1800-
1200-
600-
0>
mm
If
^
1366
X
X
1
F
1987
1988
1969
X
*=
1990
Sourest Dalaqu&st
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.3-3
6.4.3 IC Regions
Table 6.4.3-1
IC CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Total Marlcet
Revenue
Systems
Worlcstations
198
1,196
1,419
230
1,753
1,950
292
2,723
2,881
392
4.164
4,280
543
6,121
6,197
762
8,903
8,945
30.9%
49.4%
44.5%
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
123
811
898
143
1,127
1.239
181
1,665
1,770
243
2,560
2,639
337
3,780
3,832
473
5,513
5,540
30.9%
46.7%
43.9%
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
37
213
237
43
345
381
54
534
562
73
797
821
102
1,155
1,173
143
1,665
1,677
31.0%
50.9%
48.0%
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
35
158
267
41
251
298
51
478
502
69
738
750
96
1,085
1,091
135
1,579
1,583
31.0%
58.5%
42.7%
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
3
U
17
4
30
32
5
46
47
6
69
70
9
101
101
12
146
146
30.9%
58.9%
53.3%
CAGR
Source; Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.3-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.3 IC Regions
Table 6.4.3-2
IC CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
62X
68%
63X
62X
64X
64X
62X
61X
61X
62X
61X
62X
62X
62X
62X
62X
62X
62X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Uorlcstations
19X
18X
17X
19X
20X
20X
19X
20X
20X
19X
19X
19X
19X
19X
19X
19X
19X
19X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
18X
13X
19X
18X
14X
15X
18X
18X
17X
18X
18X
18X
18X
18X
18X
18X
18X
18X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2X
IX
IX
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
2X
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.3-5
6.4.4 IC Product Types
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the IC CAD/CAM
market segmented by product type and refers to Figures 6.4.4-1 Revenue and
6.4.4-1 Shipments and Tables 6.4.4-1 and 6.4.4-2.
•
The IC CAD market reached $198 million in 1985, and is forecast to grow
at a 31 percent CAGR to $720 million in 1990.
•
Approximately 1,419 workstation units shipped in 1985 and, growing at a
45 percent CAGR, we estimate that 8,945 workstations will be shipped in
1990.
•
Standalone revenues were $97 million in 1985, and are forecast to reach
$739 million in 1990, growing at 50 percent compounded annually.
•
Approximately 917 standalone workstations were shipped in 1985, and are
forecast to reach 8,416 workstation shipments in 1990, growing at
56 percent compounded annually.
•
Host-dependent revenues were $99 million in 1985, and revenues are
forecast to decrease at 31 percent CAGR through 1990, declining to
$15 million.
•
Host-dependent workstation shipments were 397 in 1985, and are forecast
to decrease at 32 percent CAGR to 67 units shipped in 1990.
•
Personal computer revenues were $2 million in 1985 and, growing at
32 percent compounded annually, are forecast to reach $8 million in 1990.
•
An estimated 106 personal computers were shipped in 1985, and are
expected to reach 462 units in 1990, growing at a 34 percent CAGR.
•
Standalone system shipments surpassed host-dependent systems in
1985 due to lower costs per seat and less CPU degradation when
performing graphics-intensive tasks.
•
Revenues of standalone products will not surpass host-dependent revenues
until 1986 due to lower cost per seat.
•
Host-dependent systems will continue to be used due to large and
computational-intensive processing requirements.
•
Host-dependent systems' primary application will be design programs and
methodologies that do not require extensive interactivity and that can run
in background mode.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.4-1
6.4.4 IC Product Types
•
Personal computers will not be a major factor because of the inherent
computational-intensive design tasks and large data bases. Dataquest
believes that PCs will be used primarily for compilation of programmable
logic arrays (PLAs).
•
For the foreseeable future, personal computers will be used to serve as
front-end (EDA) logic design entry systems for ICs, not for physical layout.
•
Workstation performance is a key issue, especially the available disk drive
and memory space, due to the large data bases involved.
•
Graphics requirements are not as intensive as in mechanical or solids
modeling applications. While not needing the high resolutions required by
those applications, electronic CAD/CAM graphics do need near to real-time
display and response speeds.
6.4.4-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.4 IC Product Types
Figure 6.4.4-1 Revenue
IC CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
720-
640
•
Standalone
;V
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
560
480
400-
320
240
160
1985
1986
1987
1988
19Sg
1930
Source: DataqufSSI
June^986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.4-3
6.4.4 IC Product Types
Figure 6.4.4-1 Shipments
IC CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
8000-
7000-
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
•
Personal Computer
6000-
5000-
4000-
3000-
2000-
lOOOi
i
>
0'-
tS8$
1
1
1
A
•
1968
1987
1988
1989
•
•
*
1
a
it
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.4 IC Product Types
Table 6.4.4-1
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Total Marlcet
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
198
1,196
1,419
230
1,753
1,950
292
2,723
2,881
392
4,164
4,280
543
6,121
6,197
762
8,903
8,945
30.9%
49.4%
44.5%
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
97
917
917
137
1,364
1,364
225
2,344
2,344
346
3,742
3,742
510
5,672
5,672
739
8,416
8,416
50.1%
55.8%
55.8%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
99
174
397
88
200
396
61
143
302
39
93
208
25
54
131
15
25
67
-31.4%
-32.0%
-29.9%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
2
106
106
5
189
189
5
235
235
7
330
330
8
395
395
8
462
462
31.9%
34.3%
34.3%
SOURCE:
CAGR
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.4-5
6.4.4 IC Product Types
Table 6.4.4-2
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
49«
77%
65X
60X
78X
70X
77X
86X
SIX
88X
90X
87X
94X
93X
92X
97X
95X
94X
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systens
Workstations
SOX
15X
28X
38X
11X
20X
21X
SX
10X
10X
2X
SX
SX
IX
2X
2X
OX
IX
IX
9X
7X
2X
11X
10X
2X
9X
8X
2X
8X
8X
IX
6X
6X
IX
SX
SX
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.4-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.5 IC Turnkey Average Prices
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the average selling
price per seat of IC turnkey systems and refers to Figure 6.4.5-1 and Table 6.4.5-1.
•
The average selling price for all product types is expected to decline from
$92,100 to $58,900, at a relatively slow rate of 8 percent CAGR between
1985 and 1990, which reflects both the increasingly sophisticated and
complex nature of IC design software, as well as the intensive
computational requirements of this application.
•
The 8 percent decline in average selling price per seat is greatest in
absolute dollars among host-dependent systems, from $199,700 in 1985 to
$83,000 in 1990. This reflects the industry-wide preference for lower-cost.
Standalone systems vis-a-vis the continuing necessity for this product type
in full-custom IC design.
•
The decline in price per seat is slowest among standalone workstations,
decreasing at 5 percent CAGR between 1985 and 1990 from an average of
almost $79,500 in 1985 to $61,100 in 1990, which we believe results from
increasing demand for this product type.
•
The 7 percent decline in price per seat for personal computer systems from
$24,000 in 1985 to $16,300 in 1990, is below the average due to its limited
applicability in IC design, as well as the high component cost of IC design
software.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.5-1
6.4.5 IC Turnkey Average Prices
Figure 6.4.5-1
IC Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price Per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
210-
180
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Computer
150-
120
30
t^ss
1966
1987
19019
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.5-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.5 IC Turnkey Average Prices
Table 6.4.5-1
IC Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
1985
A l l Prockjct Types
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Coniputer
92.1
79.5
199.7
24.0
1986
85.1
75.8
U9.6
22.3
1987
73.7
72.0
129.8
20.9
1988
66.7
68.4
112.1
19.4
1989
1990
CAGR
62.6
65.0
96.8
17.9
58.9
61.1
83.0
16.3
-8%
-5%
-16%
-7%
Source:
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
6.4.5-3
6.4.6 IC Revenue Source
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the IC market
segmented by source of revenue for each product type and refers to
Figure 6.4.6-1 and Tables 6.4.6-1 and 6.4.6-2.
•
Hardware, as a source of revenue for all product types, is forecast to
decline from 50 percent of revenues in 1985 to 36 percent in 1990.
•
Software revenues, which accounted for 36 percent of total IC CAD
revenues in 1985, are expected to grow at a 38 percent CAGR, to account
for 47 percent of total 1990 revenue. Dataquest believes that this shift
reflects increased emphasis on applications and functionality rather than on
hardware platforms that are standardizing.
•
We believe that service revenues will grow at a 36 percent CAGR between
1985 and 1990, due to, among other reasons, the increasing application
support required for ASIC design.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.6-1
6.4.6 IC Revenue Source
Figure 6.4.6-1
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
Millions of Dollars
360
320
•
Hardware
•
Software
A
Service
280
240
200-
leo
120
80-
1985
1966
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source; DatiiquesI
Juneisse
6.4.6-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
6.4.6 IC Revenue Source
Table 6.4.6-1
IC CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
A l l Product Types
Software
Service
Total
99
71
28
198
112
87
32
230
134
118
40
292
169
169
54
392
217
245
81
543
275
360
128
762
23%
38%
36%
31%
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
44
41
12
97
63
58
16
137
100
97
28
225
147
153
46
346
203
233
74
510
267
350
122
739
43%
53%
60%
50%
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
54
29
16
99
47
27
15
88
30
19
11
61
18
13
8
39
9
9
7
25
4
6
5
15
-40%
-28%
-20%
•31%
1
1
0
2
2
2
0
5
3
2
0
5
4
3
0
7
4
4
0
8
4
4
0
28%
36%
32%
8
32%
Hardware
Personal Coinputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
6.4.6-3
6.4.6 IC Revenue Source
Table 6.4.6-2
IC CAD/CAM—Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Percent of Total)
1985
All Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
SOX
36%
14%
100%
1986
49X
38X
14X
100X
1987
1988
46%
41%
14%
100%
1989
43%
43%
14%
100%
1990
40X
4SX
15X
36X
47%
17X
100X
100%
36%
47X
17%
46%
42X
12%
45%
43X
12%
43%
44X
13X
40X
46X
15X
100%
100X
100X
100X
100%
54%
29%
16%
53%
30%
17X
50X
32X
18X
46%
33%
21%
38X
36X
26X
27X
38X
3SX
100X
100%
100X
100X
100X
100X
45%
43%
12%
100%
Personal CaoIputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
53X
43%
5X
52X
42X
5X
52X
44X
5X
SOX
45X
5X
49X
47%
5X
4^
49%
SX
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
Source: Datac^test
June 1986
6.4.6-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.1 PCB Definitions
DEFINITION
The printed circuit board (PCB) CAD/CAM applications segment refers to
CAD/CAM systems used to design printed circuit boards. Until recently, the
functionality of PCB systems was limited to the physical layout or description of the
board. Now, however, their functionality has expanded to include comprehensive
logic design and analysis of PC boards. PCB CAD systems are typically used by
drafters to create the layout of the traces and components to be placed on the
board.
The output of a PCB system is the graphic description of the board's layout,
which is used in various manufacturing stages. Output typically consists of the
following:
•
Photoplotter tapes
•
Silk screens
•
Insertion drawings
•
Numeric control drill tapes
Design methodologies range from manual drafting systems to highly automated
place and route systems. Manual systems require a drafting person to physically
place components on the graphic representation of the board and interactively route
each of the traces or connections. Automatic PCB systems vary in the degree to
which the system will automatically place and route the components and traces.
However, all automatic products work directly from the logical description of the
board's functionality.
By definition, PCB output is manufacturing data. Because of automatic layout
systems, including the integration and close coupling of logical and physical data,
PCB products may also include EDA functionality.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.1-1
7.2 PCB Executive Summary
This summary highlights the key points and analyses discussed throughout this
chapter. Please refer to the chapter in its entirety for a comprehensive analysis of
the PCB applications segment.
•
The PCB segment grew 34 percent in 1985, reaching $477 million in
revenue, compared with $355 million in 1984.
•
The segment grew despite the slump in the general electronics industry,
i.e., among the end users of PCB systems.
•
Companies experiencing the strongest revenue growth in 1985 were those
that sell distributed processing systems based on personal computers or
Standalone workstations that are tightly coupled to EDA applications.
•
Because the PC AT replacement product is expected to have a 32-bit
microprocessor, we believe that 16-bit PC shipments will give way to
higher-performance standalone workstations.
•
Integration with EDA applications is critical for long-term survival.
•
The value of software will increase more sharply than hardware; Dataquest
forecasts that in 1990, 35 percent of revenue will come from software
products.
•
We forecast that hardware will fall to 44 percent of revenue in 1990,
remaining that high because of an increase in application-specific hardware
sales.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.2-1
7.3 PCB Market Overview
HISTORY
PC drafters have long used PCB CAD systems to create board geometries.
However, systems have gone through many phases prior to reaching their present
day functionality. These phases are as follows:
•
Early 1970s—Artwork-only systems, on which designers manually placed
all components and drew traces. Artwork-only systems were both
Standalone and host-dependent architectures and were priced in excess of
$150,000.
•
Late 1970s—Combinations of batch automatic place and/or route systems.
These systems were often awkward and difficult to use, rarely resulting in
100 percent routing completion. Systems of this type were generally
host-dependent and were priced in the $500,000 range.
•
1980—Reentrant automatic place and routing systems. While still relatively
awkward to use, they did allow designer intervention. They were generally
host-dependent, and still priced in the $500,000 range when fully
configured. They had improved graphics capabilities.
•
1982—16-bit Standalone architectures, which mostly used manual methods
and had little automatic place and route capability. Depending on design
method, prices ranged from $90,000 to $175,000.
•
1983—PC-based systems, which were basically artwork-only methods.
Prices ranged from $8,500 to $15,000 depending on the PC configuration
and the complexity of drafting software and its interfaces.
•
1984—Automatic and reentrant place and route on 16/32-bit standalone
architectures with good interactive graphics. They were priced between
$75,000 and $150,000. Vendors started to incorporate EDA functionality.
•
1985—PC-based systems with automatic and reentrant place and route
software, some with EDA functionality. Prices ranged from $10,000 to
$20,000.
Although these transitions occurred over the past 15 years, the most innovative
development activity has taken place in the last four years. Dataquest believes that
the last four years have experienced the most change for several reasons:
•
Increasing board complexity, size, density, and functionality created a need
for more powerful and flexible CAD products.
•
CAD hardware and software developments occurred that allowed these
boards to be designed at a cost acceptable to a price-sensitive market.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.3-1
7.3 PCB Market Overview
Because of the previous PCB systems' high price tags and their reputations of
being not so easy to use, target markets were limited to those companies that had to
have CAD systems. There remained large and untapped markets that could buy if
the price was low enough and the system was functionally "easy" to use by
designers and drafters who spent a large portion of their time doing tasks other
than creating PC boards.
Finally came the global imperative to become more productive. The realization
that CAD is an integral part of a high order process to streamline operations,
coupled with the demands of high-technology competition and shortening product
life cycles, created opportunities for users to demand and vendors to deliver.
The PCB segment comprises diverse solutions for integration, automation, and
hardware. The market leaders in the late 1970s—Applicon, Calma, Computervision,
Gerber Scientific, Racal-Redac, and Scientific Calculations—had holes in their
product lines and strategies that other companies sought to fill. As new entrants
began to introduce and deliver solutions, the old guard leaders began to revitalize
their product lines. The results are the diverse solutions described in the next three
sections.
INTEGRATION
The electronic product design process neither starts nor ends with printed
circuit board design. The electronic portion of the product in which the board will
be used must first be conceptualized, designed, and analyzed. Then the board itself
must be laid out and verified. And finally, the mechanical design in which the
board will be placed must be designed. This process is not a serial one, although
many CAD systems of yore approached the design process serially with isolated
and discrete products.
Electronic Integration
Dataquest believes that the integration of EDA functionalities into
design process is imperative for the long-term success of the CAD
Integration is achieved on various levels, ranging from interfaces to
products to highly integrated connectivity between logic diagrams and
geometries within the same system.
the PCB
vendors.
external
physical
It is only within the last two years that logic design and analysis have been truly
integrated into PCB CAD systems. However, this integration has come from many
young CAD vendors and only a few of the old guard leaders. Most of the old guard
leaders that were not among the first with EDA have since added the functionality,
but as a defensive response to either those companies that included EDA from the
beginning or to those that added it later.
7.3-2
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.3 PCB Market Overview
We believe that the user is largely responsible for driving the incorporation of
EDA functionality into PCB systems. CAD vendors that correctly interpreted and
quickly responded to users' needs were not only first to market but also have a
better chance of surviving the extreme competition and pressures at the PCB design
and layout level.
EDA functionalities applicable to printed circuit board design include the
following:
•
Schematic capture
•
Logic simulation
•
Physical device modeling/simulation
•
Microprocessor development/software engineering
•
Timing verification
•
Thermal analysis
•
Load checking
•
Testability analysis
•
Tester interfaces or program development
^
We do not believe that EDA functionality must be developed or integrated
internally by all PCB CAD vendors. However, EDA options must be clearly visible
and easy. Options may include third-party deals or an open and accessible data
base to which the user or other vendors can interface. Those that pursue no options
will seriously jeopardize their businesses, especially in the short term—when
Dataquest believes that the most attrition will occur.
Electromechanical
Electromechanical (EM) applications have long been part of printed circuit
board design; so much so that it is not always clear if a vendor is selling mechanical
or PCB applications. We believe that EM will continue to be important in PCB
design but that its role will change dramatically.
Because the PCB is used in a mechanically designed product (card cage,
cabinets, assemblies), integration with mechanical CAD will continue to be
important.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.3-3
7.3 PCB Market Overview
However, Dataquest believes that the user's highest priority is to design a
board—logically and physically. With viable EDA and CAD alternatives and
Options, we believe that the user will choose electronic design functionality first and
EM functions second. This choice will affect companies with a strong focus on EM,
as the buyer's primary emphasis will shift toward electronic design.
The data base will play a critical role in the product's acceptance. For example,
we believe that the optimum EM product is one that is integrated into or with a data
base with electrical data, not vice versa (electronic drafting integrated into a
mechanical design product). Because the market's emphasis will shift toward
electronic design, we believe that it is important for the data base to be electronic
CAD-oriented.
The final point on EM concerns the mechanical CAD segment itself. As its
applications scope and depth broadens, so must the mechanical portion of
electromechanical. Several vendors currently have a 3-D data base designing and
displaying a board and its components. For a company to compete with an EM
product, we believe that it must maintain product development and integration
equal to the separate developments of both mechanical and electronic CAD
products.
AUTOMATION
The approaches to creating printed circuit board geometries—manual editing or
automatic layout—vary greatly from system to system. The trend is toward
automatic layout, but there are questions about the trend: What kind? To what
degree? On what hardware?
We believe that automatic layout is one of the most significant trends occurring
in the PCB segment. However, we are also concerned about the seemingly
mysterious and fearsome aura surrounding automatic placement and routing and
about the effect that this aura will have on the success of PCB CAD automation
growth.
For instance, automatic place and route programs have been commercially
available for five to seven years, yet they are just becoming accepted. We believe
that early routers were difficult to use, vague in their operations, and little
understood, thus creating their mystery. Routers also tended to be less effective in
completions than the user was led to believe, and, because they were usually batch
programs, they were not friendly.
The good news is that both hardware and software technologies have changed.
Automatic routers allow more user intervention; their command structures and
operating procedures are no longer just machine readable; and routing algorithms
are better understood, at least conversationally. Routers themselves have removed
some of the mystery and fear about their use.
7.3-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.3 PCB Market Overview
It's not all good news, however. In solving some of the major problems
associated with routers, vendors have inadvertently created a new set of obstacles,
as follows:
•
"A little knowledge is dangerous." Despite only minimum understanding of
routing algorithms, users are distracting vendors from selling benefits and
are forcing features pitches.
•
Lower system prices mean more potential buyers in this price-elastic
market. More buyers mean that routers must become even easier to use
and get even closer to 100 percent completion.
•
Allowing rumored performance to overshadow conventional benchmarks
will not only damage a company, but overselling to this degree will affect
the entire PCB segment by rekindling fears and doubts in the end-user
communities.
•
The EDA connection allows a heated data base debate to surface—whether
or not to open or control data base interfaces so that routing and
back-annotation can both be done but perhaps on different vendors'
product lines.
HARDWARE
Unlike the IC and EDA CAD segments, the PCB segment is plagued by
different types of hardware. The IC segment, while predominately based on
host-dependent architectures, is making a fairly smooth transition to standalone
products. The EDA segment, while previously dominated by standalone products, is
experiencing a computational alignment with the introduction of the personal
computer. The PCB environment allows disparate hardware types to thrive in
competition against each other.
Platforms
The availability of distributed processing has dramatically changed the PCB
segment. Standalone and personal computers have expanded target markets and
brought about new application implementations, better design integration, and
lower prices. The chain of events causing the change has been a series of offensive
actions and defensive reactions.
Initially, standalone PCB systems first competed against host-dependent
systems on the basis of price, targeted at smaller companies that could not afford
expensive shared-logic systems. Large companies, the sacred target markets of the
host-dependent leaders, also realized the benefits of standalones and actively
sought them out. This resulted in companies with host-dependent-based systems
reacting defensively and scrambling to develop standalone-based products.
CCIS Marliets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.3-5
7.3 PCB Market Overview
In the next aggressive move, standalones competed against hosts on the basis
of functionality, user interface, and ease of use. This was not so easy to react to
because, by this time, any flaws in the host-dependent software were already being
ported to new standalone products, requiring major rewrites in order to compete
effectively.
In yet another aggressive move, EDA functionality was integrated with
standalone PCB systems. The defensive reaction was even more difficult; in some
cases, it required a complete software rewrite in order to associate electrical
connectivity with geometry data. Nonetheless, vendors defensively scrambled to at
least address EDA applications.
Then came the personal computer CAD system, first introduced by an outside
set of competitors. Dataquest believes that PCs were first introduced as a defensive
action, hiding behind niche classification because they were targeted at smaller
companies. However, the move soon turned out to be extremely aggressive because
the larger companies once again realized the benefits of the new hardware, this
time the personal computer.
We believe that the market will continue to evolve in this cyclical fashion, with
the majority of the vendors reacting defensively to the innovations of the few.
Accelerators
Not only is the PCB segment contending with competing and overlapping
hardware platforms, it is also ushering in yet another type of hardware—the
application accelerator. Accelerators are used to speed specific applications. In the
PCB segment, they are used most often as routing engines. We believe that the PCB
accelerator phenomenon is occurring for several reasons, as follows:
•
Routing algorithms are better understood, more flexible, and more stable.
•
Hardware platforms with insufficient horsepower to complete a route
within given time constraints require acceptable options.
•
There is an underlying need for tools that increase productivity, in this case
by decreasing the amount of time needed to complete a route.
•
Distributed processing allows an accelerator to be accessed easily by many
users, thus decreasing the cost per seat.
Current accelerators either are standalone engines without comprehensive
design capabilities or are integrated into a design system. We do not believe that
either technology, in and of itself, is better than the other. We do believe, however.
7.3-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.3 PCB Market Overview
that price is the determining factor as to which is ultimately the best
implementation, assuming fairly equal routing capability. The considerations and
trade-offs affecting the buyer's decision may include the following:
•
Process speed
•
Routing completion
•
Shared resource, network accessibility
•
Remote job access
•
Design functions
•
Limitations imposed by the router
•
Manufacturability
As the printed circuit board design function is more closely integrated into the
broader electronic design cycle, we believe that it is important for application
accelerators to be shared by the design network. Furthermore, we believe that as
more and more personal computers become part of the design network, the power
of the accelerator will become a required and critical part of most design projects.
MARKET PRESSURES
Companies selling PCB products are quickly redefining and expanding their
businesses. The new business statement is an example of electronic product design
automation. The expansion includes EDA applications, lower-priced hardware,
accelerators, automatic placement and routing software, interactive and fast
graphics, and, to some degree, electromechanical design.
We believe that the redefinition is occurring in reaction to several factors:
•
New PCB companies with lower system prices, reentrant automatic layout,
and/or front-end design capabilities
—
•
Users' demands for alternatives
EDA companies bringing out their big guns by introducing PCB CAD
products while yelling "blood bath"
—
CCIS Markets
Users' demands for closely coupled and integrated
electronic product design products
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.3-7
7.3 PCB Market Overview
•
The perceived necessary evil of personal computers that have lower gross
profit margins and lower overall revenue, but are the platforms that users
are buying and that produce PCB designs
—
•
Users' demands for low-cost hardware solutions
The old guard leaders flexing their mechanical CAD and CAM muscles
—
Users' needs for integration into the product design process
These factors do not assume that the reactions were strictly to competition; they
do not preclude strategic reactions to the users' demands. However, they do
illustrate not only the competitive pressures, but also the diverse approaches in
printed circuit board design and the major opportunities in the market segment.
7.3-8
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.1 Total PCB CAD/CAM
This section covers the total printed circuit board (PCB) CAD/CAM market for
all regions and product types (see Figure 7.4.1-1 Revenue, Figure 7.4.1-1
Shipments, and Table 7.4.1-1).
•
The PCB segment was an estimated $477 million in 1985 and is forecast to
grow to $1,038 million in 1990, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 17 percent.
•
Dataquest estimates that revenue will grow 16 percent in 1986, reaching
$552 million.
•
Workstation shipments in 1985 were an estimated 5,668 units; shipments
are expected to reach 23,663 units in 1990, growing at a 33 percent CAGR.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.1-1
7.4.1 Total PCB CAD/CAM
Figure 7.4.1-1 Revenue
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
ly/litlions of Dollars
1200-
1000-^
m^
800-^
:i$ii
xvvvi
Cv^-^w-J
600
VV^O^i
$H
^ ^ ^ ^
400
!C\\:\X;
li^
^
^
200
^'?%^W
1385
1SS6
1987
1988
W^
.:\::i.
1989
^
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
7.4.1-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.1 Total PCB CAD/CAM
Figure 7.4.1-1 Shipments
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
24000-
21000
t ^ ^
18000~
ik
15000-
•ii'SS'
12000
9DD0
mi:ss
m
NX,
:'':^;^
"x
^X-C'"
sSSS^^
5 ^
6000
litS
3000
f^^^S^
1985
^ ^
^ ^ '
1986
'
'
-
"
iS^s^S^
V^-V"-
w<X'
K^Sx
Vw^^.oX'w
•'-..X.
],. V .
1987
1988
•^./^•t.
1989
Hi..
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.1-3
7.4.1 Total PCB CAD/CAM
Table 7.4.1-1
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Total Applications
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
1,038
23,150
23,663
16.8%
39.1%
33.1%
Total Market
ReveIme
Systems
Workstations
477
552
659
778
902
4,449
5,668
6,949
8,221
9,876
10,975
13,392
14,294
17,634
18,367
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
7-4-1-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.2 PCB Market Shares
This section covers Dataquest's analysis of the PCB market share distribution
(see Figure 7.4.2-1 and Table 7.4.2-1).
•
Computervision continues to lead the PCB market, with nearly 11 percent
of the 1985 market, although its market share dropped 9 points from its
1984 share.
•
Dataquest believes that Computervision continues to dominate the PCB
segment because the majority of PCB sales are integrated with CADDS4X,
its mechanical design software.
•
Racal-Redac became the second-largest PCB vendor, with a 10 percent
share. Dataquest attributes Redac's growth to the relatively new Visuala
product.
•
Scientific Calculations' position slipped to third place in 1985, with a
9 percent market share.
•
Hewlett-Packard achieved a 6 percent market share in its first year of
shipping a PCB product. The company's product is primarily a drafting tool
that can also be used for mechanical design.
•
The PCB segment continues to have many vendors jockeying for market
position, making it a highly fragmented market with total revenue of more
than $15 million. Dataquest is listing, for the first time, market share for
the following companies:
—
Autodesk
—
Cadnetix
—
Calay
—
Ferranti
—
Tektronix
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.2-1
7.4.2 PCB Market Shares
Figure 7.4.2-1
PCB Market Share—Worldwide
1985
Source: Dataquest
Junel986
7.4.2-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.2 PCB Market Shares
Table 7.4.2-1
PCB Market Share—Worldwide
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
REVENUE
COMPANY
CoInputervision
RacaL-Redac
Scientific Calculations
Hewlett-Packard
IBM
Intergraph
Calma
Cadnetix
Applicon
Calay
Telesis
Gerber Scientific
Tektronix
Autodesk
Ferranti
Other Coniputer Companies
Other Europe Companies
Other Far East Conpanies
Other Turnkey and Software
All Companies
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
53
49
45
30
26
23
18
17
17
16
13
6
5
1
0
11
34
96
18
477
1985
SHARE
11.1%
10.2%
9.4%
6.3%
5.5%
4.7%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.3%
2.6%
1.3%
1.1%
.3%
.0%
2.3%
7.1%
20.1%
3.7%
100.0%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Datequest Incorporated July
7.4.2-3
7.4.2 PCB Market Shares
(Page intentionally left blank)
T.4.2-4
© 1986 Etetaquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.3 PCB Regions
MARKET BY REGION
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the PCB market,
segmented by region (see Figure 7.4.3-1 Revenue, Figure 7.4.3-1 Shipments, and
Tables 7.4.3-1 and 7.4.3-2).
•
Dataquest believes that North America will lead in consumption of PCB
systems through 1990, with $219 million in 1985, growing to $476 million
in 1990, at a CAGR of 17 percent.
•
We are forecasting no change in the relative positions of Europe,
the Far East, and the Rest of World segments for consumption of
PCB systems.
•
Europe consumed $116 million worth of PCB systems in 1985; this figure
is forecast to grow to $254 million in 1990, at a CAGR of 17 percent.
•
The Far East segment consumed $136 million worth of PCB systems in
1985; consumption is forecast to grow to $298 million in 1990, at a CAGR
of 17 percent.
•
The Rest of World countries consumed $5 million worth of PCB systems in
1985; consumption is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 17 percent, reaching
$10 million in 1990.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.3-1
7.4.3 PCB Regions
Figure 7.4.3-1 Revenue
PCB CAD/CAM by Region
Millions of Dollars
540
480
420-
360
300
240
180
120
1985
18W
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: -Dataquest
June 1986
7.4.3-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.3 PCB Regions
Figure 7.4.3-1 Shipments
PCB CAD/CAM by Region
Workstation Shipments
North America
10000-
Europe
Far East
X
ROW
9000
6000
4000
2000-
O:K=
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.3-3
7.4.3 PCB Regions
Table 7.4.3-1
PCB CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1989
Total Marlcet
Revenue
Systems
Uorl(stations
477
4,449
5,668
552
6,949
8,221
659
9,876
10,975
778
13,392
14,294
902
17.634
18,367
1,038
23,150
23,663
16.8X
39. IX
33.IX
North Aflierica
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
219
2,293
2,618
254
3,295
3,846
303
4,596
5.075
357
6,158
6,543
414
8,102
8,381
476
10,586
10,795
16.8X
35.8X
32.8X
Europe
ReverKie
Systems
Workstations
116
1,146
1,271
135
1,819
2,149
161
2,420
2.765
190
3,167
3,502
220
4,165
4,461
254
5,532
5.743
16.9X
37. OX
35.2X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
136
977
1,733
158
1,777
2,154
189
2.780
3,037
223
3,942
4,113
259
5.186
5,339
298
6,793
6.884
16.9X
47.4X
31.8X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
5
33
47
5
58
72
6
81
97
8
125
136
9
181
185
10
239
241
16.8X
48.6X
39. OX
1988
1990
CAGR
Source; Dataquest
June 1986
7.4.3-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.3 PCB Regions
Table 7.4.3-2
PCB CAD/CAM
Application by Region
(Percent of Total)
1986
1985
1987
1989
1988
1990
North America
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
46X
52%
46X
46X
47X
47X
46X
47X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
46X
Europe
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
24%
26X
22%
24X
26X
26X
24X
24X
25X
24X
24X
2SX
24X
24X
24X
24X
24X
24X
Far East
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
29X
22X
31X
29X
26X
26X
29%
28X
28X
29X
29X
29X
29X
29X
29X
29X
29X
29X
Rest of World
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
IX
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.3-5
7.4.4 PCB Product Types
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the PCB
CAD/CAM market segment by product type (see Figure 7.4.4-1 Revenue,
Figure 7.4.4-1 Shipments, and Tables 7.4.4-1 and 7.4.4-2).
•
Host-dependent systems led in revenue in 1985, with $237 million, or
50 percent of all PCB revenue.
•
Host-dependent revenue is expected to give way to standalone revenue in
1986 and to fall to only 6 percent of PCB revenue in 1990.
•
Standalone revenue is forecast to grow from $193 million in 1985 to
$941 million in 1990, representing a 37 percent CAGR.
•
As a percent of revenue, standalones are expected to increase from
40 percent in 1985 to 91 percent in 1990.
•
Dataquest believes that the primary reasons for the strength of standalone
systems in the PCB segment are their lower cost per seat and their
acceptable performance levels.
•
We believe that with the relative strength of standalone systems will also
come the inherent benefits of distributed architectures.
•
Personal computer (PC) revenue is expected to decrease from $47 million
in 1985 to $38 million in 1990, at a rate of 4 percent.
•
PC shipments were 2,100 in 1985 and are forecast to increase to 2,195 in
1990, at a CAGR of 1.2 percent.
•
Dataquest believes that PCs have become widely accepted, primarily
because of their low cost per seat.
•
Because of their comparatively low price/performance ratios, we believe
that most PCs will be used in a networked environment for manual drafting
applications, not for automatic place and route.
•
Place-and-route programs are available for several vendors' PCs. Dataquest
believes that there is a market for such a product, but that these PCs will
not be used for large and complex printed circuit boards.
•
Due to inherent computational issues of automatic place and route, we
believe that end users with complex boards will opt for higher
performance, trading off lower price per seat.
•
Plug-in coprocessors and accelerators will play a large role in the
widespread acceptance of the PC and an automatic layout product.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.4-1
7.4.4 PCB Product Types
•
With the availability of truly low-cost standalone systems, we believe that
standalone systems will be chosen over PCs because of both their network
and graphics capabilities and their relatively higher performance.
•
PCB shipments will be dominated by standalone architectures through
1990.
•
We believe that the majority of large, more costly host-dependent systems
will be sold by CAD vendors with multifunctionality, such as mechanical or
Other electronic applications.
7.4.4-2
© 1986 Datequest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.4 PCB Product Types
Figure 7.4.4-1 Revenue
PCB CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Millions of Dollars
900-
•
Standalone
•
A
Host-Dependent
y^
Personal Computer
800-
_ /
700-
^
600-
500-
400-
300i
200,
100-
—i
0
1965
•
—A
—
^
1
1986
1987
*
iv
1
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.4-3
7.4.4 PCB Product Types
Figure 7.4.4-1 Shipments
PCB CAD/CAM by Product Type—Worldwide
Workstation Shipments
21000
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
A
Personal Corriputer
18000
15000
12000
9000-
6000
3000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Source: Dataqueit
June 1986
7.4.4-4
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.4 PCB P r o d u c t Types
Table 7.4.4-1
PCB C A D / C A M - W o r l d w i d e
Application by P r o d u c t Type
(Millions of Dollars/Actual Units)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Total Market
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
477
4.449
5,668
552
6,949
8,221
659
9.876
10.975
778
13,392
14.294
902
17,634
18,367
1.038
23.150
23,663
16.8X
39.1%
33.1%
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
193
1,823
1,823
289
3,762
3,762
444
6.610
6,610
611
10.415
10.415
772
15,075
15,075
941
20,929
20,929
37.3%
62.9%
62.9%
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
237
526
1,746
213
565
1,837
161
450
1.548
118
338
1.241
87
249
981
59
155
668
-24.4%
-21.7%
-17.5%
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Worksttitions
47
2,100
2,100
50
2.622
2,622
53
2,816
2,816
50
2.639
2.639
43
2.311
2.311
38
2,066
2,066
-4.0%
-.3%
-.3%
CAGR
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.4-5
7.4.4 PCB Product Types
Table 7.4.4-2
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Application by Product Type
(Percent of Total)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Standalone
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
40X
41X
32%
52X
54X
46X
67X
67X
60X
78X
78X
73X
86X
85X
82X
91X
90X
88X
Host-Dependent
Revenue
Systeffs
Uorlcstations
SOX
12X
31X
39X
8X
22X
24X
5X
14X
15X
3X
9X
10X
IX
5X
6X
IX
3X
Personal Computer
Revenue
Systems
Workstations
10X
47X
37X
9X
38X
32X
8X
29X
26X
6X
20X
18X
5X
13X
13X
4X
9X
9X
SOURCE: Dataquest
June 1986
7.4.4-6
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.5 PCB Average Price Per Seat
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the average price
per seat by product type for the PCB segment (see Figure 7.4.5-1 and
Table 7.4.5-1).
•
The overall average price per seat for PCB CAD applications was
$64,400 in 1985 and is forecast to decrease at a 13 percent CAGR,
reaching $31,600 in 1990.
•
The amount of software and its value ultimately determines the end-user
price.
•
The value of software will hold the price of a turnkey seat higher than if
measuring only the value of the CPU and workstation.
•
The Standalone average price per seat is forecast to decrease the most,
from $84,100 in 1985 to $32,600 in 1990, at a compound rate of
17 percent.
•
Dataquest believes that as the average price per standalone seat decreases,
its performance will increase, resulting in systems of equivalent
performance at a lower price.
•
Host-dependent seats, while decreasing at a compound rate of 14 percent,
from $124,400 in 1985 to $58,000 in 1990, will not favorably compete on a
price basis with standalone systems.
•
Personal computers are forecast to decrease the least, at a rate of 7 percent
compounded annually, because we believe that PCs will proportionately
absorb more software and peripherals than standalone and host-dependent
workstations.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.5-1
7.4.5 PCB Average Price Per Seat
Figure 7.4.5-1
PCB Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
Thousands of Dollars
120-
•
Standalone
•
Host-Dependent
•
Personal Corriputer
itjo-
80-
?qv
m-
20-
'
A
i—
n198S
1986
1987
m
*
-
1
1
1988
1989
^ L
1990
Source: Daiaquest
June 1986
7.4.5-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.5 PCB Average Price Per Seat
Table 7.4.5-1
PCB Turnkey—Worldwide
Average Price per Seat
(Thousands of Dollars)
All Product Types
Standalone
Host-Dependent
Personal Coniputer
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
64.4
84.1
124.4
18.4
56.8
61.0
97.9
17.1
49.2
53.1
85.9
16.0
43.0
45.7
75.4
14.9
37.3
38.8
66.1
13.7
31.6
32.6
58.0
12.5
-13%
-17%
-14%
-8%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.5-3
7.4.5 FOB Average Price Per Seat
(Page intentionally left blank)
7.4.5-4
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.6 PCB Revenue Source
This section includes Dataquest's forecasts for and analysis of the PCB market,
segmented by source of revenue for each product type (see Figure 7.4.6-1 and
Tables 7.4.6-1 and 7.4.6-2).
•
The hardware portion of PCB systems in 1985 was $273 million, or
57 percent of PCB revenue.
•
Dataquest forecasts that the value of hardware will decrease to 44 percent
of revenue, or $457 million in 1990.
•
The percentage value of hardware is decreasing because both software and
service will increase as a percent of the system's value.
•
A primary reason for hardware remaining at the percentage level forecast
is that the value of peripherals compared to the value of a CPU and
terminal is expected to increase.
•
Peripherals such as application accelerations, physical modelers, and
graphics accelerators are expected to contribute heavily to the hardware
portion of the business.
•
Dataquest believes that the relative and absolute software content of a
system will increase over time, resulting in more software purchases and in
end-user price decreases not maintaining pace with decreasing hardware
prices.
•
The software portion of the PCB segment was 30 percent in 1985, or
approximately $141 million.
•
As the installed base increases, especially due to the proliferation of
Standalone workstations and personal computers, the value of service is
forecast to grow from 13 percent revenue in 1985 to 21 percent in 1990.
•
We believe that service is a core and critical part of all CAD vendors'
business; we also believe that it must become a revenue-contributing profit
and loss center.
CCIS Markets
© 1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.6-1
7.4.6 PCB Revenue Source
Figure 7.4.6-1
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
Millions of Dollars
500-
450
•
Hardware
•
Software
A
Service
400-
350-
300-.
250
200
150
100
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
Sources Datsque&t
June 1986
7.4.6-2
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
CCIS Markets
7.4.6 PCB Revenue Source
Table 7.4.6-1
PCB C A D / C A M - W o r l d w i d e
Applications by Revenue Source
(Millions of Dollars)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
CAGR
457
366
215
11%
21%
28%
17%
A l l Product Types
Software
Service
Total
273
141
63
477
314
163
74
552
357
209
94
659
400
258
120
778
434
309
159
902
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
98
67
28
193
156
91
42
289
235
143
67
444
311
201
98
611
372
261
139
772
418
326
197
941
34%
37%
48%
37%
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
157
46
34
237
140
41
31
213
103
32
26
161
72
24
21
118
49
19
19
87
29
13
17
59
-28%
-23%
-13%
-24%
18
28
1
47
18
31
1
50
19
34
1
53
16
33
1
50
13
30
1
43
10
28
1
-11%
38
-4%
Hardware
Personal Coinputer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1,038
-0%
-4%
Source: Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
7.4.6-3
7.4.6 PCB Revenue Source
Table 7.4.6-2
PCB CAD/CAM-Worldwide
Applications by Revenue Source
(Percent of Total)
1985
A l l Product Types
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Standalone
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Host-Dependent
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
Personal Computer
Hardware
Software
Service
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
57X
30X
13X
57X
30X
13X
54X
32X
14X
51X
33X
15X
48X
34X
18X
44X
35X
21X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
51X
3SX
15X
54X
32X
15X
53X
32X
15X
51X
33X
16X
48X
34X
18X
44X
35X
21X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
66X
19X
14X
66X
19X
15X
64X
20X
16X
61X
21X
18X
57X
21X
22X
SOX
21X
29X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
39X
60X
2X
37X
61X
2X
35X
63X
2X
33X
66X
2X
30X
69X
2X
26X
72X
2X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
100X
Source:
7.4.6-4
1990
1986 Dataquest Incorporated July
Dataquest
June 1986
CCIS Markets
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