CHAPTER 4: SOUTH AFRICA'S STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF EGO PERCEPTIONS IN THE PRE-1990 PERIOD As has been noted, the three components perceptions, and alter perceptions, of strategic significance, namely, national capability, ego interact with each other. information regarding South Africa's national capability. The previous chapters have provided Attention is thus now focused on the ego perceptions which were based on the RSA's national capability in the timeframe under discussion. This chapter covers the period from World War II to approximately 1989, when State President P.W. Botha ended his term of office. The Second World War and the era immediately thereafter has been selected as a starting point as South Africa played a comparatively minor role in world affairs in earlier years. This was primarily the result of colonial ties with Britain. It was only with the onset of the Second World War that South Africa really entered the international arena and became an independent world player. Initially a colonial power and then progressing to a sovereign nation, the RSA was alleged to have followed an "outward" policy of persuasion, threat and subversion as regards neighbouring states. Relations with the rest of the world varied, but condemnation was particularly strong on the issues of Namibia (formerly South West Africa) and South Africa's apartheid policies. The result of such condemnation was a period of international isolation which spanned the better part of four decades. This chapter will place particular emphasis on ego perceptions of strategic significance as regards South Africa's geo-strategic position, supply of strategic minerals, regional and economic prowess, and position as a Western ally Strategic significance is affected by ego perceptions when both leaders and the public or a relevant segment thereof, agree on the state's importance to the international community. These perceptions form the basis of the state's external policies. It is vital that ego perceptions are neither over nor underestimated, as this can lead to negative consequences as regards national strategy. Care should therefore be taken to ensure that a realistic ego perception is formulated. This will in turn ensure the formulation of a realistic national strategy. Ego perceptions are not, however, stagnant and any changes in this regard can be accompanied by resultant changes in strategic significance. A state ascribes its role perception to the perceived importance of its commitment to regional and global interests and thus its external relations. Such role perception is largely dependent on the availability of resources to fulfil and perform the desired role. It is here that national capability and the ability to mobilise the necessary resources are of vital importance. It thus stands to reason that a stronger state, with an accompanying strong national capability, will have more commitments abroad than a smaller, less powerful state. Many states that operate in a regional or system-wide context perceive themselves as playing a specific role Large states can play more than one role simultaneously, while smaller states are likely to retain a single role. Throughout history, the three major orientations of isolation, coalition formation, and nonalignment have appeared repeatedly. Basically, all three relate in some way to the making or avoidance of external commitments. National roles, such as those mentioned above, provide guidelines for action and also reflect the objectives of governments on a regional and global level. It should, however, be remembered that in certain conflict situations, actions taken can contradict a nation's typical rol~ conception in an attempt to take advantage of a certain situation. 1) The availability of necessary resources will also influence such a decision and it would appear that the more active a state is in the international arena, the more role conceptions it will develop. A brief historical description of South Africa's role during the Second World War is now offered as it provides an indication of the RSA's strategic significance at the time. The Second World War was fought between the years 1939 and 1945, and involved a battle between the Axis Powers ofJapan. Italy and Germany, and the Allied Powers which consisted of the US, Russia, France, Britain and their collective allies. This devastating war was fought primarily in Europe, North Africa, the Far East, and the Pacific and began as a result of Hitler's territorial aggression. 2) September 1939 brought with it a time of decision for the Union of South Africa as regards a wartime position. General Hertzog was of the opinion that the Union should remain neutral and continue with current international relations as if a war was not being fought. He based this opinion on three arguments, namely:a) A declaration of war would subject the Afrikaner nation to a shock that would last for many years; b) The war did not involve the Union; and c) Germany was merely attempting to rectifY the injustices committed at Versailles. General Smuts offered a counter-proposal 3) and wanted to end relations with Germany, insisting that the Union refuse to maintain an attitude of neutrality, thereby siding with Britain. He did not, however, want to send fighting forces overseas, although he stressed that Germany must be prohibited from reclaiming South West Africa with military force in the future. Following a majority vote in the "Volksraad", the Union officially gave their support to Britain in the war against Germany4) Although the use of aircraft in the Second World War made enemy territories more accessible, the Union of South Africa was left relatively unaffected by enemy attacks. This was partly due to geographical position. as well as the fact that the Allies had "control of the seas". German submarines did, however, manage to sink several ships along the South African coast. Yet the route around the Cape was still perceived as being one of the safest during the war. It was thus during this war that the Union took on greater responsibility as regards the protection of the sea route around the Cape. The South African Air Force even searched for enemy submarines and guided Allied ships to harbours of safety. 5) The Union also made a large contribution as regards the provision of canons, aircraft and armoured vehicles - the result of a strong national iron and steel industry. harbours and the Union also sent troops into battle. Allied ships could be repaired in the Union's South Africa became a primary supplier of food resources to Allied convoys that converged in the harbours to obtain food for the soldiers aboard, as well as for those on the warfront and certain civilian populations. Another contribution made by the Union was that of Smuts acting as an advisor to the British Government during the war6) It is thus clear that the Union of South Africa contributed to overall Allied strength during the Second World War. The end of the War brought a certain amount of optimism to the South African Government, which was convinced that their support during the war years had led to prestige and honour in the international community. The war had even proved favourable for the Union in that few physical hardships had been suffered and that South Africa now possessed an increased manufacturing industry due to the decreased availability of imported goods.7) Smuts dominated South Africa's foreign policy during his premiership and held enormous prestige abroad. His focus was directed at the international system as a whole and he was concerned with such issues as the rebuilding of Europe and the structure of the United Nations. Smuts was committed to the ideal ofan international organisation and was involved in the drawing up of the first draft of the aims contained in the preamble to the Charter. His greatest hope was that the British Commonwealth would continue to grow in strength and support the United Nations. Smuts was convinced that the Commonwealth could become the third "Great Power" between the Soviet Union and the US.S) Smuts believed that an emphasis on independence of action within the Commonwealth could lead to a reconciliation between the Boers and the British. He also had aspirations for increased South Mrican influence in Africa as a result of Commonwealth membership, but was later forced away from his previous plans into a position where it became necessary to defend his country's internal racial policies. The leaders who followed Smuts thus all found themselves as defenders of the White society and overseas aspirations were temporarily forgotten. 9) In fact, by the late 1940slearly 1950s, it became obvious that the Union could no longer rely solely on Britain for protection, as the latter had lost control of the seas. The Union would have to take responsibility for her own protection and survival on land, sea and in the air. 10) Attention is now focused on the key elements of South Africa's national capability and resultant ego perceptions of strategic significance. It is these elements which not only enabled South Africa to conduct various roles on the international stage, but were also the source of ego perceptions of strategic significance. The strategic significance of the RSA has been reflected in changing role perceptions. These role perceptions and perceptions of strategic significance have been asserted and emphasised by various South African leaders and spokesmen, based on elements of national capability. a) No state could deny South Africa's important strategic position at the Southern tip of Africa. Parts of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans can be completely controlled from the Cape and nations realised the importance of favourable relations with those in such a strategic position, especially in times of war. b) South Africa was also the strongest military power in Africa and was thus a key player in the battle against communist aspirations on the continent. The RSA possessed the most professional and well-equipped army and would serve as a base for armed forces in wartime. National heavy industries would be responsible for the provision of weapons and military vehicles, foodstuffs, and medical support:1) As the White buffer-states which guarded South Africa's Northern borders gradually collapsed, the RSA eventually became the last state on the African continent to be under White minority rule. The perceived Soviet threat revolved around such possibilities as the USSR gaining access to ports in Angola, Mozambique and other African states. This would have placed the Soviets in a position to harass and limit Western shipping.12) c) South Africa's economic wealth remained of vital importance to the international community, esp~ially the country's rich gold deposits. The RSA also possessed coal, steel and various other important minerals, including uranium. 13) In a 1980 South African Parliamentary session, it was noted that as the African continent was the middleman between superpower conflict, South Africa, being a part of this continent, had been awarded a certain degree of importance. The reasons for this importance were stated as not only the RSA's mineral wealth, but also the relatively strong industrial sector, infrastructure, level of technological development, and the fact that South Africa was considered the only real "power" in Africa. It was even noted that the US had come to the conclusion that the defence of Western Europe depended, to a certain extent, on South Africa.14) In a previous Parliamentary session it had been stated that the question was not how important the world was for South Africa, but rather how important South Africa was for the defence of Western democracy and for the maintenance of a stable Southern African region. It was noted that together with close neighbours in Southern Africa, South Africa held the key to the security of the Western World against Marxist threats. 15) It was also noted that South Afiica had become more self-assured, partly as a result of the realisation of the factors noted above. 16) South Afiica's primary focus during the apartheid and Cold War era was thus on South Afiica's importance as not only an anti-communist stalwart for the West, with military power and facilities which could be utili sed both in peace and wartime; but also as a supplier of strategic minerals and a valuable economic player in the Southern Afiican region. The aspects of South Afiica's national capability which had a particular influence on ego perceptions of strategic significance are discussed below. The sea-lanes around the Cape of Good Hope have traditionally been a "bone of contention" in terms of sea control. Although the Cape Route itselfis hazardous, it would be far more dangerous for ships to attempt to sail further South. This would be the ultimate scenario if the South African Government restricted waterborne traffic. From a political perspective, this gave South Afiica an added advantage, especially as regards the growth of Western imports ofenergyI7) Much of Western Europe's oil supply in the period under discussion travelled the route around the Cape, as did a large portion of US oil imports. It was therefore vitally important for the West to prevent a pro-Soviet regime in South Afiica that could impose a blockade. 18) The South Afiican Minister of Defence in 1956, F.C. Erasmus, emphasised the importance of protecting Afiica and the Cape Sea Route in particular. He noted that the demand for oil by Western nations would ultimately increase and that the Suez Canal would not be able to cope with this increased demand. It was thus vital to keep the Cape Sea Route open, in spite of enemy attempts to take control of this route and sink oil tankers.19) In fact, from as early as the mid-1960s, an increasing amount of imports to the US and Western Europe travelled around the Cape Sea Route. This was generally as a result of such factors as the expansion of world trade, as well as the specific consequences of the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967. Even before its closure, it was becoming obvious that many oil supertankers were too large for the Suez Canal and that the only other option was therefore to use the Cape Route. Southern Afiica also had a key role to playas regards the necessary surveillance for European security interests and was thus important to North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) lines of communications. The fact that the USSR was active in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, as well as in Southern Afiica, made the possibility of a future threat to the Cape even more realistic. 20) Prime Minister Vorster also emphasised the importance of the Cape Sea Route during the 1970s, as evidenced by the following statement when he voiced the opinion that the US was the leader and protector of the free world and thus had a role to play in the protection of the Cape Sea Route: "We want to safeguard the Cape Sea Route because ultimately the Cape Sea Route is of more importance to the free world than to South Africa"ZI) The South African Government consistently emphasised the RSA's geo-strategic position, for example, when the Minister of Foreign Affairs, R.F. (Pik) Botha, stated the following in 1979: "South Africa's strategic position in the world cannot be denied. Occupying the Southern-most part in the African continent its strategic location is immediately evident, a sentinel to the world's most important canal. Indeed it is no exaggeration to state that the closing of this gateway, mid-way between the two oceans, would have a devastating effect on the side against whom the closing is directed. We find ourselves midway between the East and the West, geographically speaking. This geographical factor might in the future assume greater significance. Our shores are washed by both the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans. It is as if we are destined either to brave the stormy seas of both oceans or to enjoy the tranquillity of our shores divorced from both. Thus far we have been a target for many and diverse forces. We have attracted stormy weather. However, we have no intention of remaining a target. We have the will and the desire and the technical skills and the resources to set up targets of our own, new objectives to be achieved. These targets would include the achievement of peace and stability in the whole of Southern Africa, the re-enforcement of mutual trust among the leaders and nations of our region and the establishment of a sub-continental solidarity which could form the basis for close co-operation in all the important spheres oflife. We will have to give serious consideration to the desirability of adopting a neutral position in international affairs, a neutral position in the struggle between East and West. Our sole commitment ought to be towards the security and advancement of our own Southern African region. Southern Afiica could steer a new course of its own midway between East and West. I believe that such a course could initiate a new era for the subcontinent, a new era of prosperity and greater understanding among our various peoples". 22) Botha was responding to years of international pressure aimed at instilling reform as regards South Africa's domestic apartheid policies. The UN General Assembly passed numerous resolutions condemning apartheid, but the South African Government insisted on non-interference in domestic affairs and thus ignored these resolutions. Attempts were made to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on South Africa, but the US and Britain initially refused to consider such pressure. These efforts will be discussed at a later stage. It was thus from as early as the 1940s that South Africa realised she could no longer rely on complete support from the former colonial power and other traditional allies. Interestingly enough, P.W. Botha had in 1980, noted that international councils were not acknowledging the importance of South Africa's strategic position. He made particular mention of the Cape Sea Route and stressed that although the military leaders of the West and indeed the Free World, were aware of South Africa's strategic position and important situation, the politicians had been silent on this matterZ3) South Africa's position as the guardian of the Cape Route was reinforced by the fact that by the 1980s, some 25000 merchant ships passed along this stretch of coast, carrying approximately 80 percent of NATO oil requirements and about 70 percent of mineral requirements. At one point, South Africa did propose the e'stablishment of a South Atlantic Treaty Organisation with such countries as Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Chile, but this met with little response. Then there was the heavily relied-on issue of Soviet expansionism in Southern Africa, which waned in the 1980s and is noted below. The US State Department, however, issued a report in the mid-1980s stating that the Cape sea-lanes wen: under "minimal threat" and that the collaboration of the South African Government would not "significantly increase" the US ability to protect them. 2~) In 1982, P.W. Botha made the following statement regarding South Mrica's strategic significance: "South Africa is drawn into international politics simply because it is important. It is important to America, it is important to Russia, it is important to the European Economic Community" 25) He continued to emphasise South Africa's role in the region in the following political statements: "We are not an island. We are firstly part ofa large continent ..." and "We are an African state and we have interests in Africa"26) This issue is discussed in further detail at a later part of this chapter. Botha also emphasised South Africa's strategic geographical position by stating: "It is important to Southern Africa as a trade partner, as a transport partner and it is important on the most important route round the Cape. The most important route on the globe. And it is important because of its strategic minerals...There is an interdependence between nations as far as transport and trade are concerned". 27) Botha was thus, by the early-l 980s, focused on South Africa's gee- strategic location and regional strength. He also continued to stress the right to self-determination and was determined that the RSA would not succumb to the disinvestment campaign. An important part of South Africa's geo-strategic importance was the anti-communist ideology held by the nation's leaders and this is discussed below. By the late 1940s, Dr Malan had assured his electoral supporters that South Africa would not remain neutral if a war resulted from Russian aggression and would support the anti-communist countries. Yet after Britain's refusal to supply the RSA with arms, doubts were expressed as to the continued necessity of South Africa's unconditional support of the West.28) By the mid-1950s, South Africa's strategic significance, particularly as regards communism, was noted by a member of the South African Parliament who emphasised that, from a strategic viewpoint, South Afiica held a very important place in the world. Mention was also made of Africa's role as the key continent in the relationship between East and West.29) In 1956, Prime Minister lG. Strijdom, referred to the communist threat that could consume the entire African continent and also noted the importance of a combined effort to fight the common enemy. He stressed that the whole idea of co-operation and discussions between South Africa, Britain, France, Portugal and America would be in the event of a possible world war, where the South African coastline would be of value to everyone. 30) In a 1961 South African Parliamentary session, South Africa's strategic significance in the struggle against communism was again noted, when it was stressed that the RSA was the base from which the Western World could attempt to regain what it had lost. South Africa would possess the only warm water route between the Eastern democracies and the West and it was emphasised that communism would be able to cut the West offfrom its Eastern democracies within 24 hours.31) When the UN General Assembly passed a resolution in 1961 condemning South Africa, the South African Foreign Minister, Eric Louw, threatened to retaliate against any sanctions. He is quoted as saying: "Punitive action works both ways," and mentioned withholding the use of South African harbours as an example. 32) P.W. Botha made several references to the assumption by the West that South Africa would automatically serve as an ally during a conflict situation. This was a particularly sensitive issue in light of international attempts to isolate the South Africa as a result of the country's domestic apartheid policies: "Perhaps we have tried too hard to assure the West of our support. Perhaps we should consider not letting our availability be taken for granted quite so much". He also made reference to the RSA's future neutrality when he stated: "South Africa will never fight for the West on its battlefields again. South Africa will in future be neutral. For as long as I am Minister of Defence, I will not allow the sons of South Africa to die for a West who has rejected South Africa and has completely abandoned her". 33) Prime Minister Vorster was, however, aware of his country's increasing isolation and had stated that South Africa would be ready to face a communist attack alone as "certain countries who profess to be anti-communist will even refuse to sell arms to South Africa to beat off the attack"34) State President Botha reiterated this position of neutrality in 1988, stating that South Africa was not an automatic ally of any major power and that these powers should not assume that in a great upheaval South Africa would automatically side with one of them: "For the sake of our own interests, we shall co-operate with any country that shares common interests with us. But our priority lies in Africa" 35) Soviet involvement in Angola only served to further convince the South African Government that they were facing a "Total Onslaught". As far back as 1978, P.W. Botha had stated that: "The ultimate aim of the Soviet Union and its allies is to overthrow the present body politic in South Africa and to replace it with a Marxist-orientated form of government to further the objectives of the USSR". 36) P. W. Botha emphasised the writings of a well-known strategist during a February 1980 South African Parliamentary session: "The danger for the West lies in the capture of an industrial base, the Republic of South Africa, which could finance the construction and imposition of MarxismlLeninism in its most oppressive form throughout Africa". Botha stated that the British Prime Minister believed that the RSA was on the Soviet Union's priority list and referred to an interview with a member of the Russian Politburo, who admitted that it had been stated that the elimination of Western influence in Southern Africa was the major objective of Soviet foreign policy.37)A few months later, the South African Foreign Affairs Minister stated that if Russia was not stopped it would dominate the world. He emphasised that Russia had the technological knowledge to enslave the entire world once it had been subjugated by force. 38) The early 1980s thus witnessed an increasing preoccupation with the perceived communist threat. P.W. Botha referred to the strong military position of the Soviet Union, whose aim was the application of a "global strategy". He emphasised the value of South Africa for the West in this regard and stated that the RSA was, economically and strategically, a vital point for the West. Should Marxism take control of South Africa, however, it could become the point from whence a stranglehold could be applied on the West.39) Other members of the South African Parliament also noted South Africa's strategic significance by emphasising South Africa's role as the most important country in such a cardinal part of the globe. It was emphasised that the Soviet Union would do everything in its power to destabilise Southern Africa so that it could deny the West access to strategic assets. The West was in turn interested in a stable South Africa because it did not want the Soviet Union to achieve its goals. South Africa had an important role to play in this situation, namely, to maintain and restore stability on the sub-continent.40) South Africa's strategic position as regards the maintenance of international stability for the democratic West and for Southern Africa in general, was thus noted and Southern Africa was considered to hold extensive strategic importance for the West, for Europe and for the US.41) The South African Minister of Defence, Magnus Malan, also emphasised the communist threat, noting that the Russian policy of expansionism was a threat to the entire region and that interest in South Africa in this regard was bound to increase.42) It was announced in 1986 by the Director of the Africa Institute of South Africa, Dr Erich Leistner, that "all out" armed internal conflict in South Africa would lead to Marxist-Leninist dictatorship in the RSA and then to the rest of the Southern African region. 43) As is evident from the statements above, South Africa was perceived, at least by local politicians and statesmen, as being vitally important in the battle against communist expansionism. It was anticipated that the RSA's key geographical position and ideological preference would be considered valuable by the international community. Yet towards the late 1980s, as the Cold War drew to a close, P.W. Botha tentatively acknowledged Soviet attempts at reconstruction when he stated that according to Pravda, Gorbachev had indicated that the Soviet Union was willing to make a constructive contribution towards solving the problems of Southern Africa. Botha stressed that any contribution in terms of economic aid, upliftment and development in the region would be welcomed, but should the USSR under the leadership ofGorbachev, continue to exploit Southern Africa as an area for the export of weapons and revolution, its relevance in the search for peaceful solutions would further decrease. 44) Ego perceptions of strategic significance thus revolved around South Africa's importance in the battle against comm~nism, where it was repeatedly stressed during the period under discussion in this chapter that should the RSA fall into communist hands, the rest of the region would follow. This would undoubtably have a significant impact on Western strategic interests in the area. As noted above, South Africa played a valuable role during the Second World War as regards the provision of facilities for Allied forces. The RSA possessed the following advantages in this regard:- (1) modern airfields for the launching and landing of patrolling aircraft; (2) the necessary command and communications systems; (3) a fully developed naval base, namely Simonstown, the only one in Southern Africa; (4) the only maritime defence forces in Southern Africa; and (5) several other large, developed harbours which could be utili sed for shelter, repairs and refuelling.45) Mention of South Africa's military power cannot be made without noting the importance of Simonstown, initially a small seaside resort close to Cape Town. It was here that the British built a dockyard on the sea route to India.46)In fact, Simonstown served as a base for the British Navy from the early 1800s and played an especially important role as an Allied naval base during the First and Second World Wars following the closure of the Suez Canal. This role contributed to South Africa's strategic significance in generaL The Simonstown Agreement of 1955 resulted in an agreement for the handover of the base to South Africa, although Britain would retain certain privileges. The base officially became the property of the SA Navy on 1April 1957.47) The Agreement was, however, terminated in 1972 by mutual agreement. 48) Simonstown offered valuable facilities, such as a graving dock capable of taking two frigates; extensive dockyard facilities; air communication; and the required industry.49) P.W. Botha emphasised the importance of the strategic location of the RSA in this regard, when he noted that in a global war, South Africa would be important in respect of the protection and/or interdiction of shipping, as a base for maritime operations, as an air base, for logistic support, and as a communications and repair base. In a localised conflict, the RSA was also of inestimable importance, even if merely used as an observation post. SO) Botha referred to the importance of both Simonstown and the strategic significance of the RSA during 1980 South African Parliamentary sessions and noted that most military leaders in the international community were well aware of this fact. 51)He emphasised that the West would struggle without a stable South Africa, especially considering the RSA's industrial potential, modem harbours, including Simonstown in its modernised form, and military power. 52) It was noted in 1983 by the Deputy Minister of Environmental Affairs and Fisheries, lW.E. Wiley, that recent international events had re-emphasised the serious threat of Russian submarines for Western nations. In this regard, the cancellation of the Simonstown Agreement had resulted in a more self-sufficient Navy that had made tremendous technological progress. 53)A level of self-sufficiency was also achieved as regards military technology in general, predominantly as a result of the international arms embargo against South Africa. In fact, of all the sanctions applied by the international community against the RSA, the arms embargo was hoped to have enough of an impact on the South African Government to result in political change. There is, however, the perception that an arms embargo served as a compromise for several Western powers who resisted mandatory economic sanctions against South Africa. 54)The trade in armaments to and from the RSA continued, however, and there was thus substantial debate as to whether the arms embargo against South Africa was, in fact, effective. Defence Minister Botha had already in the early 1970s claimed that South Africa was almost self-sufficient as regards arms procurement and that the country did not require any armaments from the outside world for its internal defence". 55)The South African perception of self-sufficiency in armaments production is reflected in the 1977 Defence White Paper, where it is stated that: "The RSA is fully self-sufficient in respect of armaments required for its internal protection. Although the same cannot be said in all respects as regards a conventional external threat. ..the RSA ensures its safety by negotiating licences for more sophisticated and expensive equipment". 56) Prime Minister Botha announced in late 1980 that: "If sanctions in one form or another are applied against us, we shall fight them tooth and nail... We have experience in fighting sanctions. An arms embargo was applied against us for a number of years, and I happened to be in the thick of that fight. We not only withstood it, but we are now in a position where we are exporting arms of sophisticated types".57) The South African Government was thus confident that the country's national capability would be strong enough to withstand international sanctions and this realisation had an important impact on ego perceptions of strategic significance. International sanctions against South Africa had little effect other than to ensure increasing resistance by the South African Government. The Armscor chairman, in fact, stated in 1983 that 74 percent of all war material was being produced within the RSA and admitted that the rest was being acquired in a clandestine manner. 58)By 1985, Defence Minister Malan declared that: "We are entirely selfsufficient insofar as conception, design and development are concerned". 59) There can thus be no denying that the arms embargo resulted in the expansion of South Africa's domestic arms industry in anticipation ofbeing denied access to traditional suppliers. In 1981-82, South Africa's arms exports were valued at $23 million and by 1984, most of the RSA' s military budget was spent on local arms production. A successful arms embargo also depends on the co-operation of all parties concerned, but South Africa managed to locate alternative suppliers of production licences, including Italy and France. South Africa purchased foreign licences for arms production from as early as 1960 and then gradually transformed herself from arms importer to arms producer and eventually, arms exporter to as the military industrialisation process. This is referred 60) As regards nuclear weapons, the decision to develop these weapons was made in 1974 and the requirement was intensified following the deployment of Cuban forces in Angola a year later. The perception was that in the event of threats to the RSA, the South African Government would provide details of the country's nuclear capability to Western nuclear powers and request them to intercede with the Soviet Union on their behalf in order to prevent an attack. 61) In 1977, the South African Information Minister made an ominous reference to the potential use of nuclear technology by declaring that: "Let me just say that if we are attacked, no rules apply at all if it comes to a question of our existence. We will use all means at our disposal, whatever they may be. It is true that we have just completed our own pilot plant that uses very advanced technology, and that we have major uranium resources" . Yet the UN General Assembly concluded in 1980 that many analysts were convinced that the South African Government would rely on the psychological aspect of a nuclear threat and would thus resist the testing or deploying of such weapons. The South African Government then announced in 1984, that nuclear technology and material would only be exported to recipients who guaranteed placing such items under IAEA safeguards. Nuclear interests would also be administered in line with the principles of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It should also be noted that South Africa had, in fact, signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963, which prohibits nuclear tests in the atmosphere. By September 1987, Prime Minister Botha declared that the South African Government was prepared to discuss signing the NPT, which would result in IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities62) The South African Government thus appeared to be relatively confident as regards the RSA's military capability, especially as the international arms embargo had resulted in the stimulation of an extensive local arms industry. This further enhanced ego perceptions of strategic significance. The political manipulation of prices or access to minerals within South Africa would have created serious problems for Western economies. 6J platinum, and lithium. ) The minerals in question were gold, diamonds, chrome, manganese, Four minerals, however, were considered critical to the West's defence and industrial capacity, namely, chromium, manganese, vanadium, and the platinum-group metals. The regular supply of these essential minerals was frequently cited as sufficient justification for the maintenance of amicable relations with the South African Government. Although the mineral needs of the various Western states were different, they were each dependent on secure mineral sources outside their borders. The hardships of a complete disruption of mineral exports and imports could be minimised, however, by stockpiling and substitution development.64) South African politicians emphasised the importance of the RSA's national resources and it was noted that these resources had long been made available to the US and the rest of the Western world through a process of honest international trading.65) South Africa found herself in a situation where resources were becoming scarce and where strategic resources held a new position in the world as a result. The belief was that the availability of certain minerals determined whether goals on a national and international level could be attained. South Africa had an important role to play in the provision of minerals and energy and this had become increasingly accepted by leading international figures who realised South Mrica' s importance for the West, particularly as South Africa was the primary goal of Russian imperialists in Africa. It was emphasised that whoever controlled the worlds strategic resources could determine the global balance of power. 66) A pro-Soviet regime in South Africa was thus to be avoided at all costs. In May 1980, P.W. Botha once again referred to the danger of communism for the West's mineral supplies, especially if the RSA was defeated in this regard. He stressed that the West would pay a greater price than South Africa, in spite of the hope that another arrangement could be made as regards the minerals that South Africa provided.67) The Minister of Foreign Affairs and Information, Mr R.F. Botha, was also convinced of the RSA's strategic significance in this regard and emphasised that control over South Africa's natural and mineral resources, in conjunction with the RSA's geographical position, would tremendously improve the position of the Soviet Union against the rest of the world,,68) The 1984 White Paper on Defence and Armaments Supply states that: "One of the major considerations of Soviet strategy with regard to Southern Africa is the control of the subcontinent's riches in strategic minerals and the denial of these to the West... Several world-wide and regional organisations, of which the United Nations and the Organisation of African Unity are the most important, also lend themselves to furthering USSR objectives in Southern Africa by joining in the propaganda onslaught against the RSA,,69) South Africa was thus perceived as the protector of Western interests in the region. Prime Minister Botha noted this in 1980, when he stated the following: "Russia has its eye on Southern Africa, for if it can gain control of our mineral resources, it will in some cases control the strategic minerals of the whole world since it already controls a good deal of it". 70)He also noted a few years later that this nation was intent on controlling the supply of oil from the Middle East and minerals from South Africa to the West, so that it could dominate the West and force it to surrender.71) In 1986, the South African Minister of Manpower even went so far as to suggest the establishment of a South Africa-Soviet Union precious metal cartel. Yet it was noted that it was perhaps more the price of South African minerals that was the attraction for the West as it was possible to find alternative suppliers. The US, however, considered certain strategic minerals important enough to exclude them from the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act (CAAA).72) This will be discussed at a later stage. By 1987, General Malan continued to stress the intentions of the Russians to control the sea route around the Cape and prevent Western access to South Africa's minerals.73l There is thus no denying the strategic importance of South Afiica to the US and indeed the West, not only because the RSA possessed key minerals which were of great importance to the economies of many industrial nations, but also because the USSR was the only other major world producer of these critical minerals. Considering that America's allies in Western Europe and Japan were even more dependent on imported raw materials from South Africa, there was great concern during the Cold War years that these states would become dependent on the Soviet Union if South African supplies were cut. There was also concern that the USSR and the RSA could manipulate mineral prices if a pro-Soviet regime emerged in South Africa. 74) The South African Government took full advantage of this perception of strategic importance, especially as regards strategic mineral resources, as is evident from the above-noted statements during the period under discussion; and threatened to embargo the West in response to sanctions as a result.'5) During much of the era prior to and during the Cold War, South Africa emphasised the country's importance to the African continent in general and for the Southern African region in particular. This is evident in many of the statements noted above. Attention is now firstly directed to ego perceptions in this regard, followed by a discussion of the economic prowess of the RSA in the region, which ultimately resulted in a situation of dependence for many African nations. Southern Africa consists often states, namely, Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia (South West Africa), South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Nine of these became independent between 1964 and 1990. Mention is also often made of the so-called Frontline States (FLS) which comprised Tanzania, Zambia, Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Botswana. During the 1970s, the regional environment for South Africa turned increasingly negative, especially following the collapse of Portuguese rule and the independence of Angola and Mozambique. 76) In the decade that followed, the fact that South Africa formed part of the African continent and was considered vital to the economic success of the Southern Afiican region, was expressed time and time again. Attempts were also made by South Africa to find peaceful solutions to conflicts in Angola and to resolve the South West Africa/Namibia question in order to encourage peace in the region and promote a positive image internationally. 77) These issues will be discussed at a later stage. Attention is now focused on the role perceptions of South Africa in the region which flowed from the specific elements of national capability noted above. During the Cold War years, South Africa collaborated with the Western powers in a conscious effort to contain communism. A period of isolation then followed as a direct result of South Africa's internal apartheid policies. In an attempt to break through this bamer of isolation, South Africa's foreign policy was directed in an outward movement. A new policy towards the rest of independent Black Africa was in fact initiated from approximately the mid-1960s.78) South Africa offered aid of both a technical and general nature to African states and in the early 1960s, Dr. Verwoerd had already proposed a Commonwealth between neighbours at the Southern tip of Africa. This would become a multi-racial common market or free trade zone without political domination by any single member 79) Although this plan never came to fruition, attempts at closer ties with the so-called buffer states continued to be made throughout the I960s and early I970s.80) The primary aim of this new "outward" policy was the economic penetration of Southern Africa and the creation of a regional system. By using the country's abundant economic resources, South Africa hoped to induce political co-operation with Africa. This "outward" policy of South Africa was not merely an economic policy, but was also an attempt to improve international status and position. The South African Government hoped that other states would be positively influenced and that this would foster further economic (and thus political) co-operation. As South Africa was the most highly industrialised country on the African continent, it was possible to assist other states with advice and technology in various fields, ranging from medical issues to the iron and steel industry. Emphasis was placed on the provision of water supplies and plans for a hydro-electric scheme were discussed with Lesotho. South Africa claimed to be promoting the interests of the West by this policy of co-operation and by becoming a link between the Western nations and Africa South of the Sahara.81) South Africa had a close interest in the British territories ofBasutoland, Swaziland and Bechuanaland and there were strong economic links between these territories and the RSA. These small countries had little hope of isolating themselves from a country which almost completelY surrounded them; supplied them with a market for their produce; provided labour opportunities for their citizens; and allowed them access to South Africa's superior infrastructure. Bechuanaland and Basutoland gained independence in the mid-1960s and became the independent states of Botswana and Lesotho respectively. Relations between these states and South Africa continued to be friendly and Prime Minister Vorster indicated his willingness to increase contacts with other African states.82) Swaziland gained independence in 1968 and also continued cordial relations with South Africa. The friendly atmosphere between South Africa and these three states would serve as a moderating influence at the UN, in the GAD and in the British Commonwealth as regards criticism directed at South Africa and pressures for sanctions. 83) A trade pact had been signed in March 1967 between South Africa and Malawi and this was viewed as a dramatic landmark of the "outward" policy. It was also agreed to exchange diplomatic representatives. These developments were largely due to the insight of Dr. Kamuza Banda, who realised the futility ofan economic boycott against South Africa. Dr. Banda's attitude of economic realism thus reinforced the traditional South African belief that economic self-interest would conquer ideological ideals. 84) In December 1969, a new customs agreement was signed between South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana, which indicated closer economic links and co-operation between these states. 85) Prime Minister Vorster declared that although South Africa was motivated by a degree of self-interest, it was not this alone which had resulted in the "outward" policy. South Africa, as a highly industrialised and wealthy state, felt deep concern for her poorer neighbours and developed a sense of responsibility in this regard. The "outward" policy had as its basis, "tolerance and mutual respect, the recognition of the sovereign independence of all states, and non-interference in each other's domestic affairs" obvious attempt to avoid external criticism of internal arrangements. This was an The South African Government emphasised that military forces would operate in neighbouring states only at the request of that particular government and retaliation would only occur in times of necessity. 86) Yet this "outward" policy did afford South Africa a degree of elementary recognition in the world community, especially as a regional power. The RSA' s leaders appeared determined to foster peace on the sub-continent in an attempt to prevent instability in the region. An example of this is Prime Minister B.1. Vorster's opening Parliamentary address on 31 January 1975, which referred to his government's intent to end the violence in Rhodesia. Vorster stated that South Africa would continue to do everything possible, without interfering in any country's domestic affairs and without attempting to prescribe to anyone, to bring the parties together and to promote understanding of each other's problems.87) Prime Minister Vorsterhad noted South Africa's role in Africa, stating that: "As we are a part of Africa and because we know Africa and its circumstances, we do indeed have a role to play in the development of the continent. ..we are prepared from time to time to offer such technical and financial help as we can. We have done it in the past. It is our policy and we are prepared to continue with it". The importance of noninterference in domestic affairs was also emphasised: "Agreement policies ...is certainly not a requirement in respect of one another's internal or a condition for discussions and co-operation with other countries ...The South African Government will not allow itself to be dictated to in respect of its domestic policy, just as we do not wish to dictate to other countries what their domestic policy should be". As Foreign Minister, Dr Muller also referred to the sovereign independence of states by stating that: "The way to peace lies through detente, the recognition of the principles of sovereignty, equality, non-interference and mutual respect". 88) Although certain successes were achieved with the "outward" policy, for example, the above-mentioned establishment offonnal diplomatic relations with Malawi in 1968, followed by an exchange of state visits in the early 1970s; the OAD managed to block the continuation of this policy by means of a 1971 resolution. Yet six OAU members, namely, Gabon, Mauritania, Lesotho, Malawi, Ivory Coast, and Madagascar voted against the motion; while Niger, Swaziland, Dahomey, Togo, and Upper Volta abstained. With the collapse of Portuguese colonialism and the resultant independence of Mozambique and Angola in the mid-1970s, Vorster moved towards a new policy of "detente", which was vaguely defined as the formulation of a Southern African "constellation of completely independent states" to form a "strong bloc" and "present a united front against common enemies". 89) By 1976, the importance of stability and economic prosperity in the Southern Afiican region was once again on the agenda, when RF. Botha stated at the UN that: "We in South Africa appreciate that the prosperity of our neighbours is also in our interests. Their security is our security". 90)Th~ Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr H. Muller, also stated that South Africa's objective was, in fact, to avoid military confrontation. The RSA wanted peace in Africa, peace which promoted development. 91)In this same sentiment of regional cooperation and interdependence, Prime Minister Botha made a New Years appeal in 1980 to South Africa's neighbouring states to join the proposed Constellation of States and is quoted as saying that while "we are prepared to strive for such peace, we are also prepared to fight for that peace and protect it"92) The international outrage at the Soweto uprising, however, effectively threw South Africa's regional and international policies into disarray. In the Defence White Papers of the 1970s, mention was made of a "Total Strategy" where economic, political, socio-economic, and military resources would be utilised in order to defend and advance South African interests at all levels. The concept of "Total Strategy" was first introduced in the 1973 White Paper on Defence and was covered in increasing detail in the 1975 and 1977 White Papers. The "Total Onslaught" against South Africa was described as "communist inspired", but included forces from the ANC, SW APO, the UN, the OAU, and the West. The aim of these forces was the overthrow of the current constitutional order and the establishment of a "communist-oriented, Black government".93) The concept of this strategy was thus developed as a counter-attack strategy. "Total Strategy" was defined in 1977 as: "The comprehensive plan to utilise all the means available to a state according to an integrated pattern in order to achieve the national aims within the framework of the specific policies".94) Attention was increasingly focused on the perception that should an ANC government come to power in South Africa, communism would have a firm hold on the region. As already noted, there was also the perception that a Soviet Union-Southern African alliance would control an extensive amount of the world's strategic minerals. P.W. Botha became the South African leader in September 1978 and the "Total Strategy" was adopted as official state policy. The idea of a constellation of states was once again emphasised in an attempt to construct a regional alliance to battle the ''Marxist Onslaught". The idea was to achieve "regional solutions to regional problems". One objective was to ensure that neighbouring states were not utilised as launching pads for guerilla or terrorist attacks on South Africa. Another was to ensure that the Soviet-Bloc powers did not gain either a political or a military "foothold" in Southern Africa. South Africa also wanted to maintain and strengthen existing economic ties within the region and demanded that these states resist calls for mandatory trade sanctions against the RSA. Black Southern African states were, in fact, to limit criticism of South Africa's domestic policy. The so-called 12 point plan detailed specific policies regarding the planned utilisation ofall available means in this regard. Methods of economic coercion were also noted, including the limiting or prohibiting the use of South Mrica's railway and harbour facilities for the export of goods originating in the Black states; and the regulation of access to and movement through the RSA. 95) P.W. Botha mentioned this "Total Onslaught" at various political meetings. For example, during a 1970 South African Parliamentary session, he emphasised that the Western World was being threatened by the global and total strategy under the leadership of aggressive communism.96) The national doctrine of creating a "Total Strategy" to meet a "Total Onslaught" was thus formulated in response to changes in South Africa's external environment, including the collapse of Portuguese colonial rule and the independence of several African states. Counter-terrorist wars were waged in both Angola and Namibia as further examples of this perception of "Total Onslaught", which was ultimately blamed on the Soviet Union. Yet the idea of Southern African co-operation was continually stressed by various politicians from the inception of the original "outward" policy and in 1979, P.W. Botha stated South Africa was offering the region co-operation by way of a peace agreement and a non-aggression pact, involving the combatting and destruction of terrorism, the mutual recognition of borders, and a common decision to fight communism in Southern Africa. 97) The application of the "Total Strategy" is divided into various phases, the first involving the Constellation of States initiative and running from late 1978 until mid-1980. The plan for this Commonwealth-type body was partly negated by the formation of the Southern African Development (SADCC) in April 1980, comprising Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Coordination Conference Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The principle strategic objective of the SADCC was considered to be the decrease of external dependence on particularly the RSA. 98) The SADCC is discussed in further detail at a later stage. The second phase of the "Total Strategy" began in mid-1980 and continued until late 1981. This is referred to as a period of destabilisation where the South African Government not only increased military action against neighbouring states, but also applied economic methods of coercion. An example of the latter was the withdrawal of approximately 20 locomotives on hire to the National Railways ofZimbabwe.99) Checks and controls were implemented at Lesotho borders in May 1983. Lesotho is completely surrounded by South Africa and is thus susceptible to any coercive measures. Military action was also taken against Lesotho, as well as against Angola, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Two events in this regard should be noted, namely, South Africa's invasions into Angola from 1975; and the signing of the Nkomati Accord in 1984, where both South Africa and Mozambique made a commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes and rejected the threat or use of force against each other. 1(0) A new phase of so-called intensified destabilisation began in early 1982 and it was announced in 1983 by the South African Foreign Minister that the RSA was determined to force the ANC from all neighbouring states. Attempts were made to reduce support for the ANC in these countries and maintain existing economic links in light of attempts to reduce economic dependence on South Africa.lOl) P. W. Botha, however, responded in 1983 to accusations of destabilisation by emphasising the numerous co-operative agreements between South Africa and several Southern African states. He insisted that he was "prepared to conclude defence agreements with every state in Southern Africa that shares a common interest with us, and I am prepared to conclude agreements with them in which we state that we will not allow our territories to be used against one another". 102) Yet South Africa continued to feel threatened, as evidenced by the following statement made by P. W. Botha in the early 1980s: "Is there a threat against the Republic of South Africa? The answer is clearly, yes ...Soviet intervention is a fact ...The Soviet aim is to create for itself an intensive power-base in order to bring the Republic of South Africa within its sphere of influence". Botha was convinced that South Africa's strategic position was such that it had become "a focal point in the struggle between the major powers of the world" .103) It was announced by Pik Botha in late 1984 that: "South Africa is an increasingly confident regional power which has the will, the power and the resources to playa role it has been invited to fulfill in the search for peace in this region". 104) Although accused of destabilisation by neighbouring states, P.W. Botha stated on numerous occasions throughout the 1980s that economic dependence was not the aim of the RSA: "It has never been our aim or our wish to bring about a system of economic dependence under South African dominance. Interdependence is an inescapable fact oflife of Southern Africa, which we cannot ignore if we want to serve our best interests. "commonwealth" It would be to the detriment of all of us". JOS) Botha emphasised the old idea of a of Southern African states when he again extended a "hand of friendship" to South Africa's neighbours and proposed that urgent consideration be given to the establishment ofa permanent joint mechanism for dealing with matters of security, particularly threats to the peace and prosperity of the sub-continent.106) Yet in reality, many neighbouring states were facing a situation of economic dependence. In 1988, the South African Minister of Defence, General Magnus Malan, delivered a lecture on The contemporary strategic situation in Southern Africa. Here reference was repeatedly made to the necessity of an increase in South African influence in the region, such as: "South Africa serves the interests of its people and of the region of which it is part. It is in South Africa's interests to have stable, prosperous and developing neighbours. For this reason South Africa offers aid and provides assistance in many areas ... South Africa is the stabiliser of the region and would like to expand this role". The RSA also recognised the sovereignty and territorial integrity of her neighbours. General Malan stated that "All indications are that South Africa's role and influence in Africa must increase. The collapse of Africa on a variety of fronts, such as infrastructure, agriculture and medical services, is in reality due to an inability to control technology. It is technology that has made South Africa an acknowledged regional power. I believe that co-existence and good neighbourliness is possible in Southern Africa. Our challenge in this region, which contains some of the world's richest raw materials and greatest potential, is to enter into lasting relationships with one another. ..For I share the concern that no significant foreign investment will flow into Southern Africa as long as it is seen as a place of conflict and unrest". 107) Malan noted that although the RSA did not plan any territorial expansion, subversion or aggression against another state, threats to South Africa, her people and interests, would indeed be countered. African Security Forces would thus be prepared accordingly. The South Mention was also made of the Soviet and Cuban threat in the region, where a weapons build-up was continuing. There were, however, increasing indications that Africa was looking inwards for solutions to African problems and South Africa, according to Malan, was playing a key role in this regard. Four matters were of particular relevance to General Malan in 1988, namely, the Soviet arms build-up in Southern Africa and the presence of foreign forces; the· revolutionary and terror threat to South Africa; the possibility that rapprochement between East and West could exclude South Africa; and the fact that there was no solid evidence of the new Soviet international relationships, at least in Southern Africa. General Malan also noted that South Africa was increasingly being referred to in international circles as a regional power. 108) As has been previously noted, the African continent in general suffered a distinct loss of global interest towards the end of the Cold War. The effects of communism had left most of Eastern Europe in poverty and ruin. Much of the developed world began pouring funds and other types of aid into these former communist countries and Africa became well and truly marginalised. International funds were no longer easily available and Africa was left to resolve her own problems. This in turn created an opportunity for South Africa as regards her strategic significance and role on the continent, especially in the Southern African region. There is thus ample evidence of ego perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance in the Southern African region. The RSA was intent on establishing a role on the sub-continent as a relatively powerful ally, who could ensure stability in the region and provide economic assistance to her poorer neighbours. Trade with these nations was a vital aspect of this role and is discussed below. South Africa was considered the so-called economic powerhouse of the Southern African region and in 1988, approximately eight percent of the RSA' s exports were intended for Africa. The key to economic co-operation lies in geographical proximity, as well as in cultural, historical and personal links. The 1910 Southern African Customs Union remained the most important multilateral trade agreement in Southern Afiica in the mid-to late-1980s. This agreement was re-negotiated in 1969 and had a particularly important impact on the trading patterns of Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana. The Common Monetary Area and the Southern African Regional Tourism Conference were other important multilateral economic agreements of the time-frame under discussion. Zimbabwe and South Africa were party to the most significant bilateral trade agreement in the region, which amounted to almost R 750 million in 1986. Zimbabwean industry was, in fact, dependent on exports to South Africa, and there was also a trade agreement between the RSA and Malawi. 109) Development aid projects were undertaken by the South African Government in various African countries and emphasis was placed on the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. In 1988, South Africa was also officially represented in Mozambique, Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi and Zimbabwe by the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Industry. Escom, the RSA's power supplier, supplied electricity to Botswana, Swaziland, Mozambique and Lesotho, and mention has also been made of South Africa's port and transport infrastructure which were vital to many Southern African economies.110) These actions can all be considered indicative of South Africa's strategic significance to the Southern African region. By implementing a higher degree of economic integration, it would become more difficult for the international community to isolate the RSA and impose sanctions without endangering the economies of neighbouring states. The effects of international sanctions against South Africa on these states will be discussed at a later stage of the study. The added advantage was that South Africa would become known as a strong regional power that could actively promote the economic development and security of the region. The "outward" policy had been introduced with the assumption that "prevention is better than cure" and that economic development of the entire region would secure South Africa's strategic perimeter by preventing a spill-over of internal conflict from neighbouring statesll1) The South African Government thus used vital economic links to emphasise the RSA' s strategic importance to the international community. It was hoped that these economic considerations would outweigh the criticism directed at South Africa's internal racist policies. This was especially the case as regards landlocked African neighbours who relied heavily on the RSA for a variety of supplies. It thus became customary for many states to openly criticise South Africa, whilst covertly trading with the RSA. Many African nations were aware of their degree of dependence on South Africa, but did not want to incur the wrath of the international community by openly disregarding their wishes. Trade between the RSA and African states was therefore not publicised. Although eventually forced into isolation, South Africa responded by becoming virtually self-sufficient in many aspects. Yet although P.W. Botha had in the second halfof1984 spoken of optimism and confidence as regards the RSA's role in Southern Africa, the situation had worsened by 1986, with internal violence, fighting in the region and international pressure, all increasing the problems for South Africa. There was still, however, a degree of economic dependence as regards neighbouring states, especially in the areas oflabour, trade and transport. (12) A decline in the South African economy would thus have unavoidable consequences for neighbouring states. It has already been noted that the RSA became a target ofthe international community in the form of various sanctions, in an attempt to coerce the government to alter its internal policies. These sanctions not only failed to achieve their objective, partly due to South Africa's strong national capability, but also strengthened ego perceptions of strategic significance in that they were not universally applied. Although the international sanctions campaign against South Africa will be further discussed in subsequent chapters, it can be noted at this point that although the RSA did manage to circumvent many sanctions, they did have financial consequences for South Afiica. According to President P. W. Botha: "Between 1973 and 1984 the Republic of South Africa had to pay R22 billion more than it would have normally spent. There were times when it was reported to me that we had enough oil for only a week". In 1987, South Africa's Minister of Finance, Barend Du Plessis, stated that: "Billions of Rands of scarce capital ...have been squandered on building up the country's strategic reserves of oil through fears that supplies would be cut off' .113)Yet the oil embargo was dismissed by Prime Minister Botha as "not feasible".114) Thus although the international sanctions campaign was costly for the South African Government, domestic reform did not result, primarily due to the fact that many states, including those in Southern Africa, did not apply strict sanctions against the RSA. Ego perceptions of South Africa's importance to the international community and particularly the Southern African region, were thus reinforced. In the period under discussion, South Africa can be perceived as having travelled full circle. The country moved from compatriot, to pariah, and by the end of the era under discussion was moving once again to the level of compatriot. The stage was set for irreversible change and it is this change which would ultimately determine South Africa's strategic significance in the future. The era immediately following the Second World War was filled with hope for an improved world. This hope was subsequently dashed by the rise of communism and international outrage at South Afiica's internal racial policies. What followed was a lengthy period of international isolation, which South Africa contested on the grounds of the country's strategic position, especially in view of communist ambitions on the African continent and the RSA's abundance of certain strategic minerals. This line of reasoning worked fairly well with the US and Britain. Eventually, however, even these last two stalwarts of South African support succumbed to international pressures and criticism turned to condemnation and damaging measures. This will be further discussed in the following chapter. South African attention, however, remained focused on the Southern African region where the RSA held many neighbouring states in a situation of economic dependence. As the Cold War drew to a close, it became apparent the Africa would increasingly have to seek local solutions to local problems and South Africa, as one of the strongest nations on the continent, was a key player in this regard. As South Africa gradually returned to the international arena and domestic reforms began to surface, another change took place with the coming to power ofF. W. de K1erk in 1989. This can be perceived as the beginning of a new era for South Africa. Ego perceptions during this period were thus centred around South Africa's geo-strategic position, where the Cape Sea Route played a valuable role in the transport of Western oil and other related products. It was repeatedly stated that should South Africa fail to resist communism, this route would no longer be available to the West. Such a situation would have extensive strategic implications for the Western World. South Africa's military capability was also perceived as playing a valuable role in the protection of this vital area of the globe. Add to these aspects, the RSA's key strategic mineral reserves and role as a stabilising force with extensive economic capabilities in a turbulent sub-continent, and South African politicians had numerous factors to emphasise regarding the RSA's strategic significance. South Africa thus held a distinct perception of strategic importance during the years of isolation and this was duly demonstrated by the various speeches delivered by politicians in this regard. Yet the perceptions of the international community should also be taken into account. Was South Africa really that important to global security or was this merely an incorrect perception on the side of the RSA? Alter perceptions of strategic significance up until the end of 1989 will thus be discussed in Chapter 5 of this study. 1. Holsti, K J, International Politics: a framework for analysis, fifth edition, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1988, pp. 114-116. 2. Murray, B, "The coming of the Second World War", In: Breitenbach, J J(ed), South Africa in the modem world (1910-1970), Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, 3. Scholtz, G D, Suid-Afrika in die wereldpolitiek: 1652-1952, South Africa, 1974, p. 127. Voortrekkerpers Beperk, Johannesburg, 1954, pp. 296-297. 7. Barber, J, South Africa 'sforeign policy 1945-1970, Oxford University Press, London, 1973, p.7. 12. Bowman, L, "The strategic importance of South Africa to the United States: an appraisal and policy analysis", In: Aluko, 0 and Shaw, T M(eds), Southern Africa in the 1980's, George Allen & Unwin, London, 1985, pp. 123-124. 17. Bissell, RE, "How strategic is South Afiica", In: Bissell, R E and Crocker, C A(eds), South Africa into the 1980's, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1979, pp. 214-215. 18. Boles, E, The West and Smith Africa, Croom Helm for The Atlantic Institute for International Affairs, London, 1988, p. 43. 24. Landgren, S, Embargodisimplemented: South Africa 'smilitary industry, Oxford University Press, New York, 1989, p. 29. 25. Scholtz, J J J, Fighter and Reformer: extracts from the speeches of P. W. Botha, Bureau of Information, Pretoria, 1989, p. 78. 32. De Villiers, L, In sight of surrender: the US sanctions campaign against South Africa. 1946-1993, Praeger Publishers, Westport, 1995, p. 20. 36. Arnold, G, Crossing the Rubicon, MacMillan Academic and Professional Ltd, London, 1992, p. 145. 47. Wessels, A.,"Die Suid-Afrikaanse Vloot: verlede, hede, toekoms", Mi/itaria, Vol II, No 3, 1981, pp. 12-13. 49. Martin, L W, "British policy in the Indian Ocean", In: Cottrell, A J and Burrell, R M(eds), The Indian Ocean: its political. economic, and military importance, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1972, p. 416. 61. Banetjee, D, "South Africa: The security and strategic dimension", Africa Quarterly, Vol 32, No 1-4, 1992-93, pp. 165-166. 77. Evans, L H, "South African foreign policy and the New World Order", Issup Bulletin, No 4, 1993, p.2. 78. Boyce, A N, "South Africa's external relations after 1948", In: Breitenbach, J J, op cit, pp.511-512. 80. Davis, R and O'Meara, D, "Total strategy in Southern Africa: an analysis of South African regional policy since 1978", Journal of Southern African studies, Vol 11, No 2, April 1985, p. 187. 84. Spence, J E, "South African foreign policy: the outward movement", In: Potholm, C P and Dale, R( eds), Southern Africa in perspective: essays in regional politics, Free Press, New York, 1972, pp.50-51. 100. Motshabi, K, "South Afiica's actions against neighbouring states", In: Orkin, M(ed), Sanctions against apartheid, David Philip Publishers, Cape Town. 1989, pp. 123-125. 107. "The contemporary strategic situation in Southern Africa: the RSA's role and influence must increase", Paratus, December 1988, pp. 14-15. 109. Graham, D G, "The prospects for increased economic interaction in Southern Afiica", Issup Bulletin, No 3, 1988, pp. 3-7. 113. Woldendorp, J, "Some successes of the oil embargo", In: Hanlon, J(ed), South Africa: the sanctions report: documents and statistics, Commonwealth Secretariat, London, 1990, pp. 175-176. CHAPTER 5: SOUTH AFRICA'S PERCEPTIONS STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF ALTER IN THE PRE-1990 PERIOD As has been determined, national capabilities do not serve much of a purpose until they are turned into an advantage for the state concerned, that is, when they affect relations with other states. An example would be South Africa's vast mineral wealth and the question of whether these minerals were considered important enough by the international community to alter or at least maintain, perceptions of the RSA's strategic significance. Another relevant question regarding alter perceptions concerns the country's internal politics. Did the RSA's internal problems affect the level of significance or was the country's strategic significance of enough importance to the international community that the issue of internal racial conflict played a diminished role? These and other issues will be discussed in this chapter. As previously noted, the evaluation of South Africa's strategic significance is based on elements of national capability; ego perceptions as regards importance to both regional and global environments; and confirmation by other states of the RSA's strategic significance. A state's own role perception, as well as its national resources are linked to the external environment and while the former relates to national policy, the latter provides the operational means. Interaction with foreign powers is, however, vital in that unless members ofthe external environment respond to a particular state's policies, strategic significance will not reach its full potential. Although certain states have remained isolated for many years, it is not an ideal situation and entails many hardships for the country and its citizens. South Africa's external relations were inextricably linked to the country's internal policies, more specifically, the policy of apartheid or racial discrimination. Although the entire international community had an effect on South Africa's strategic significance, certain states have played a more important role in the country's history, namely, the US, Britain (as well as other parts of Europe), the Southern African region, and the USSR. Alter perceptions primarily concern two aspects, namely, perceptions of the international community or external environment regarding a certain country's strategic significance, and the actual relations which take place. These two aspects often do not concur, a point which has been illustrated by the international community in its relations with South Africa. An example of this duality was the fact that illicit trading with the RSA continued (especially with African states), whilst heavy criticism was openly directed at South Africa's internal policies. The RSA's strategic position, as well as an abundance of natural resources not available in Africa and overall strong national capability, thus placed additional emphasis on South Africa's strategic significance. Relationships between the state concerned and the international community are therefore key indicators of alter perception. Although few states actually made official statements regarding South Arica's strategic significance during the period under discussion in this chapter, it can be deduced from the relations between the RSA and certain countries that South Africa continued to hold a certain degree of importance in the international region in general and the Southern African region in particular. These relations between the international community and South Africa can therefore be considered to substantiate perceptions of the RSA's importance. Mention is made of various factors which influenced attitudes towards South Africa. The first ofthese was increasing Western preoccupation with the countering of communist influence during the 1970s and 1980s, particularly in the African region. Another factor was that of the priority of economic considerations, especially the availability of resources and trade opportunities. I) The perception was that the Soviet Union was attempting to prevent the extension of Western links in Africa and the rest of the Third World . Western attitudes were further influenced by the human rights standards which were being set on the global stage and South Africa's racist policies were seen to be in direct contrast to these standards. This last factor can be considered to have had a negative impact as regards international support for South Africa solely in light of her geo-strategic position. 2) Sentiment as regards the RSA's international policies was in fact severe enough to warrant an extensive sanctions campaign. Being situated at the tip of Africa in what can be considered a relatively isolated position, South Africa was eager to establish relations with especially the Western Wworld and her neighbours on the African continent. Yet it can be noted that the 1940s to early 1960s were marked by requests and appeals to the South African Government to reject apartheid. The following years, however, witnessed resolutions calling for economic, financial and military sanctions against the RSA. Although most nations in the global environment criticised South Africa's internal racist policies, with many imposing sanctions against South Africa to varying degrees; several also attempted to defend the RSA at international forums and refused to apply stringent economic sanctions as a result of such factors as traditional ties, economic constraints, and humanitarian concerns. The international sanctions campaign will thus form an important part of this section of the study and is discussed at a later stage. The US and South Africa have had a fairly long history of relations and the following section has thus been organised chronologically for ease of reference. US perceptions of South Africa's importance were predominantly dictated by Washington's desire to ensure the RSA's assistance in containing the Soviet Union and its communist allies. South Africa was also perceived to be strategically important in a region filled with unrest and there was the added issue of the RSA's importance to the US economy.3) This latter aspect refers in particular to South Africa's wealth of strategic minerals and it has been noted that without these minerals, it would not have been possible to make the necessary military equipment during the Cold War. This made South Africa strategically important for the US on both economic and national securitylevels4) As will be discussed at a later stage, these minerals were considered important enough to be excluded from comprehensive US sanctions. President Reagan in fact emphasised the concept of "linkage" which referred to his belief that Soviet action anywhere in the world affected US-Soviet relations. The Reagan Administration's primary concern as regards Mrica was superpower competition for control of resources. 5) The US can be considered to have had relatively little interest in African affairs throughout much of the 1960s and any visible interest proved to be more economic than political. This state of affairs did attract vigorous criticism from those who favoured stronger measures as regards South Africa's apartheid policies. The Truman Administration ofthe US had, however, recognised South Africa's strategic importance in the years following World War II and thus proceeded to encourage the RSA's economic progress. This was, of course, aimed at reinforcing the allegiance of South Africa to the West. 6) The US voted against apartheid for the first time during a UN session in October 1958, although South Africa was still considered an ally in the fight against communism. In 1961, John Kennedy, a strong anti-apartheid supporter, took over the American Presidency and relations between the two nations changed dramatically as Kennedy was totally against the "tyranny" of apartheid. This change in relations had been preceded by the Sharpville incident of21 March 1960, where 67 protestors were killed by policemen, resulting in international outrage.7) The 1960s thus marked the beginning of a deterioration in relations between the US and South Africa. Following the formation of the OAU and the resultant demand that the US choose between Africa and the White rulers of South Africa and the Portuguese territories, it became more difficult for the US to resist pressures to impose sanctions against the RSA. The US then eventually voted in favour ofa second call by the Security Council for an arms embargo and in 1964, banned the sale to South Africa of materials for the making of arms. The 1963 arms embargo was also strictly observed. There was growing concern in the US that any available arms would be used to enforce apartheid. 8) In 1965, the US National Security Adviser, McGeorge Bundy, approved a recommendation by the State Department to withdraw official guarantees for investors in South Africa. By 1966, the issue of South West Africa was attracting attention and the US supported a UN General Assembly resolution "terminating" South Africa's mandate over the territory. sanctions against the RSA during the 1960s.9) The US, however, continued to resist punitive economic When US National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, ordered various global strategic evaluations in early 1969, National Security Study Memorandum 39 (NSSM 39) dealt with Southern Africa and proposed various options. The so-called Tar Baby Option was recommended by Kissenger and approved by Nixon and proposed closer co-operation with South Africa, as well as improved relations with Portuguese leaders in Angola. The arms embargo was, however, not to be lifted, although the distinction between civilian and military equipment acknowledgement was no longer as rigid. The final year of the decade that economic sanctions against South Africa had failed West Germany, Britain, and Japan was blamed. fO also witnessed UN Trade by the US, as well as ) In early 1971, US President Nixon made public the chapter entitled "Africa", in the annual State of the World Report. This chapter can be considered one of the primary comprehensive statements on US interest in African affairs. In this document, Nixon stated that: "Our goal is to help sustain the process by which Africa will gradually realise economic progress to match its aspirations". Economic interests in the continent were considered extensive, although it was noted that it was not the task ofthe US to determine the pattern of relationships among African states. Mention was made of the Nixon Doctrine's encouragement of selfreliance, although Nixon believed that the US could assist Africa in achieving peace, justice and economic development: "We look to African leadership to build the framework within which other nations, including the US, can fully contribute to a bright African future" .11) This can be considered a reference to South Africa's possible strategic role as not only a valuable economic player on the African continent, but also as a "peacekeeper" and stabilising force. It was predicted that African nations would utilise fora such as the UN to promote pressures on the South African Government and in 1971, David D. Newsom, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, noted that the African continent was likely to become increasingly frustrated at the lack of international support in this regard. 12) In defence of the US position, Nemson referred to the US actions noted above, although there remained an element of veiled support for the RSA in such statements as: "Specifically, much as we deplore apartheid in South Africa ...we cannot agree that they automatically constitute a threat to the peace ...We have long had relations with South Africa. Although we strongly oppose racial discrimination, we recognize the complexity of the problem South Africa faces". The issue of sanctions was also not neglected and the indication was a move away from isolation, in that although the US had in fact supported economic sanctions against Rhodesia, the South African scenario was believed to be an entirely different matter. Newson also hinted that the US was unlikely to become involved in military intervention on any side in Africa.B) Kissinger and Ford, however, possibly realising the need for the Black vote in America, began to switch to a policy in 1976 which emphasised "a more humane point of view". Kissinger is quoted as saying that pressure must be exerted "to bring about change" in South Africa and to ensure majority rule and an end to apartheid. Yet the US continued to refuse to support UN resolutions calling for an oil embargo, as well as extensive economic and trade sanctions, and also defended South Africa's membership of bodies such as the Universal Postal Union and the UN General Assembly. The Nixon Administration had in the early 1970s, however, advised American enterprises in the RSA to pressure Pretoria whenever possible and this was considered an alternative to sanctions.14) Kissinger met with South African Prime Minister Vorster in the mid-1970s and talks between these two statesman were perceived as a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough for the RSA and acknowledgement of South Africa's key role in Southern Africa. IS) When Secretary of State Kissinger went to sub-Saharan Africa in 1976 on an official visit, one of his primary missions was stated as being an attempt to reduce Soviet influence in the area.16) US alter perceptions as regards the region were thus firmly directed towards the superpower battle for influence and it was here that South Africa would playa key role. In the meantime, trade between the USA and South Africa was on the increase and the hope was once again fostered that economic and not political considerations, would be the deciding factor in future relations In 1976, trade between the RSA and the US increased by 21 percent and by the following year, there was also an increase in US investment in South AfricaY) It thus appeared that the US considered the RSA valuable enough to resist international pressures for severe sanctions. Yet the late 1970s witnessed a certain lack of interest in South Africa by the Carter Administration, where the threat of sanctions was used in an attempt to force change. Although the US Administration developed a somewhat "hardened" stance against South Africa with the assumption of the American Presidency by Mr Jimmy Carter in 1977, Carter expressed a desire for peace in Southern Africa and stated that economic sanctions against South Africa would be counter-productive, especially as he recognised the RSA as a stabilising force in the region. naval attache in Pretoria and commercial officer in Johannesburg. 18) The US, however, withdrew its US Vice President Walter Mondale met with Vorster in Europe in May 1977 and insisted on the "full political participation by all the citizens of South Africa". Certain American businesses in the meantime adopted the so-called Sullivan Principles which set conditions for remaining in South Africa. 19) During Carter's 1978 NATO speech he, however, warned that the organisation could not be "indifferent" to the activities of the Soviet Union and Cuba in Africa. 20) FOllowing Carter, President Reagan and his Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Chester Crocker, followed a policy of "constructive engagement" during the 1980s. This policy can be defined as an attempt to persuade President Botha to demolish apartheid, while at the same time opposing the armed struggle of the ANC. 21) Crocker had stated that: "Under constructive engagement, we would continue our adherence to the arms embargo, our refusal to make use of South African defence facilities, our categorical rejection of apartheid policies and institutions - as well as our rejection of trade and investment sanctions and all forms of economic reconciliation. warfare against South Africa". UN Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick 22) The idea was thus to work towards had announced in 1981 that: "The Reagan administration holds the view that economic sanctions are not a very useful instrument of policy". 23) Crocker emphasised that South Africa formed the centrepiece of US policy in the Southern Mrican region, in part due to the economic, technological and military strength of the RSA; but also because the West had economic, strategic, political, and moral interests at stake. Although it was noted that racism was unacceptable, the stated long-term objective ofuS policy was: "The emergence of a domestic order in South Africa that will permit the United States to pursue a full and normal relationship with it". The importance of the Cape Sea Route, especially as regards petroleum and non-fuel minerals, was also noted; as was the fact that Soviet expansionism in the area was to be avoided. An added concern was that as Southern Africa was more important to the West than to the Soviets, military force should not become the principle means for change in the region. The emphasis was thus on stability. Economically, South Africa was considered one of the few growth points in Africa and could serve as a "regional engine of development" 24) The importance of resisting communist expansionism was also reiterated by Crocker: "The top US priority is to stop Soviet encroachment in Africa". 25) Ronald Reagan voiced his concerns about Africa's strategic significance when he stated the following: ''I'm concerned - scared is the proper word - about what is going on in Africa ...Many Americans have interpreted our interest in Africa as an extension of our own desire to achieve racial equality and elimination ofinjustice based on race. I'm afraid that is a naive over-simplification of what really is at issue, namely, a power struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union" 26) It is interesting to note, that for the US and Britain, South Africa became a difficult issue, as attempts had to be made to balance concerns as regards both communism and apartheid. 27) George Bush held similar perceptions: "Today Africa is ignored at our peril...African resources, such as oil and strategic minerals, are vital to our economy; Southern Africa, in the course of the next decade, could well be the focal point of East- West confrontation". Bush emphasised that although human rights continued to be a concern, strategic interest could not be ignored. In specific reference to the RSA's strategic importance, he stated the following: "South Africa has a position astride the sea lanes and has natural resources important to us, such as industrial diamonds and chrome". He also noted that in order to advance US interests, economic, technical, and military assistance should be provided to those nations who shared US goals and values. Criteria for assistance would include importance to the US, in terms of natural resources, strategic position and influence in Africa; the government's attitude as regards issues of direct significance to the US; the country's current and potential contribution to international and regional peacekeeping; and the amount of US investment in the nation concerned. 28) From the above-noted conditions, is was clear that South Africa was one of the few, ifnot the only, nations in the region and probably the continent, that could fulfill most of these conditions. It can thus be deduced that the US considered the RSA to be of considerable strategic significance. The 1981 State of the Union Address continued to emphasise both the value of African mineral resources for the US economy and the necessity of expanding efforts to promote trade and investment in this part of the globe. 29) In 1981, Reagan stated the following: "Can we abandon a country that has stood beside us in every war we've ever fought? ..A country that strategically is essential to the free world in its production of minerals we all must have and so forth?" He is also quoted as believing in "continued friendship" with South Africa instead of being "aloof and distant". The US would thus continue to support the UN arms embargo; while at the same time refraining from economic warfare against the RSA. Although there were concerns as regards the situation in Namibia and Angola, the emphasis was once again placed on the communist threat in Southern Africa.30) When South Africa mounted an extensive intervention in Angola in 1981, US Secretary of State, General Haig, made excuses for the RSA by referring to Cuban forces and Soviet advisers and arms, which had apparently been "used to refurbish SW APO elements that move back and forth freely across that frontier and inflict bloodshed and terrorism upon the innocent non-combatant inhabitants of Namibia" JI) These events emphasised the fact that the RSA's strategic significance, at least as regards the US, was based on South Africa's strategic minerals and vital role as an anti-communist ally on the African continent. The Reagan Administration's attitude towards South Africa and other Third World countries has been labelled as "too simply anti-communist" or "an obsession with the Soviet Union". Although the US condemned violence in South Africa, the Administration chose to remain politically neutral in its relations as the RSA was generally believed to support the regional political status quo. This did not find favour with the Frontline States. Crocker based his strategy on the belief that the US could not break the White minority regime in South Africa and that "constructive engagement" thus had more potential for resulting in change than blatant confrontation?2) The strategic significance of South Afiica was also indicated by other US politicians, including those of the Democratic Party who had noted the continent's vast resources in the mid-1980sHl The Republican Party had in turn stressed the priorities of opposing Marxist imperialism in Africa and establishing democracies with market-based economies. 34) South Africa, with her strong anti-apartheid stance and relatively successful economy, would thus serve as a successful example in this regard. In earlier years, the American Party had deemed South Africa valuable enough to calIon the US Government to cease its acts of hostility towards the RSA and "all other non-communist countries.3') Even Andrew Young, who served as a UN ambassador and held strong anti-apartheid views, had admitted that long-term US self-interest coincided with Afiica's self-interest. 36) South Afiica, as one ofthe most powerful countries on this continent, was thus awarded a certain degree of strategic significance, as is evident from the above statements. Public pressure in the US in the mid-l 980s, however, resulted in a tougher stance against apartheid and Secretary of State Shultz's Advisory Committee eventually rejected the policy of"constructive engagement" and called for international efforts to implement economic sanctions and isolat~ South Afiica. The US antiapartheid movement sought disinvestment from the RSA and by 1985, almost $4,5 billion of public funds from corporations doing business in South Afiica had been withdrawn. 37) Although the early 1980s were also characterised by increased international loans to South Afiica, the decade was thus characterised by increasing disinvestment from the RSA. This disinvestment was the result of two factors, namely, pressure by US anti-apartheid lobbies; and increasing uneasiness among businessmen as regards the security of investments in South Afiica38) When the American Chase Manhattan Bank recalled its finances, followed by other US and European banks, the result was a severe financial crisis for South Afiica.39l The most effective sanctions were, in fact, perceived as those applied by the banking institutions and it was thus what can be termed the "market forces" sanctions which did the most darnage.40) Yet in 1986, a spokesman for the US State Department had the following to say as regards the ffiM decision to disinvest: "We regret any decision to reduce US private sector involvement in South Afiica. It will harm Black workers and reduce US influence".4\) The emphasis from both the US and Britain always appeared to be on the potential harm to Black workers and not on the effects upon the Pretoria Government. The economic situation in South Mrica, however, continued to deteriorate following the Rubicon speech, with the most damage caused by the effects of a capital outflow (as noted above) from 1985 to 1988, which amounted to approximately $11 billion 42) In an attempt to defuse extensive sanctions in 1985, the White House used Executive Order 12532 to prohibit "trade and certain other transactions involving South Afiica". This included an embargo on the export of nuclear goods or technology to the RSA, although few new sanctions were announced.43) On 2 October 1986, the Senate joined the House, overriding the President's veto and enacting the CAAA. The stated purpose of the CAAA was to set out a "framework to guide the efforts of the US in helping to bring an end to apartheid in South Afiica and lead to the establishment of a non-racial, democratic form of government".44) The CAAA and its measures would attempt to encourage Pretoria to repeal the state of emergency; respect the principle of equal justice for all; release Nelson Mandela and other political prisoners; end aggression against neighbouring states; negotiate with all racial groups; permit freedom of political expression; and set a timetable for the ending of apartheid legislation. The CAAA called for such actions as the prohibition of the importation of South Afiican coal, iron, steel, agricultural products, textiles, and uranium. The legislation, however, also called for the ANC to "suspend terrorist activities" in the period proceeding negotiations with Pretoria; to "re-examine their ties to the South African Communist Party"; and to declare support for a "free and democratic post-apartheid South Africa".4S) It is important to note that certain metals such as chromium, the platinum-group metals and manganese were excluded from the CAAA, as they were considered to be strategically vital for the US.46) This can be considered to relate directly to previously-noted ego perceptions regarding South Africa's strategic significance. Although a 1986 US Department of State Bulletin emphasised the ending of apartheid in South Africa, the value of the RSA was also noted: "We must recognise that South Africa is an integral part of and major player in Southern Afiica. Our influence with South Afiica on ending apartheid is related to the success of our efforts in the region as a whole".47) When the February 1987 Department of State Bulletin was published, it was once again noted that should Southern Africa succumb to conflict, major US political, economic and strategic interests would be jeopardised. Support was also given to those US businesses that had chosen to remain in South Africa. It was noted that violence in South Africa would have consequences beyond the RSA's borders and would provide the Soviets with new opportunities for communist influence: "We recognise that South Africa's evolution is intimately connected to the fate of an entire region"48) During the Reagan presidency, Washington officials in fact referred to Africa as "a continent of great promise" .49) In 1989, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Hennan Cohen, emphasised the US Administration's commitment to a non-racial, democratic South Africa, especially at a time when dialogue in the country was imminent. 50) This can be considered indicative of the US Government's continuing desire for a stable South Africa, which would in turn help stabilise the Southern African region and thus protect US interests in the area. Yet it can be noted that US interest in South Africa, as determined by the number of articles published in American newspapers and periodicals, declined significantly from the mid-to-Iate1980s.51) This can, in turn, be considered an indication of changes in the external environment as the world began to lose interest in the RSA and Africa in general towards the end of the Cold War. In a 1989 US Department of State Bulletin, US interests in Southern Africa were summed up by the US Ambassador to South Africa, Ambassador Perkins, who emphasised the maintenance of supplies of key strategic minerals to the US which South Africa alone provided; the maintenance of American influence through mutually productive diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations with nations in the region; and the elimination of regional tensions which could escalate into superpower confrontations. Regional security and stability were thus considered vital. 52) Although perceptions South Africa's strategic significance were not as focused on the role of the RSA as an anti-communist ally in the late 1980s, there was thus still an emphasis on South Africa's role for stability in the region, particularly as regards the security of US economic and strategic interests. There can be no denying the divided nature of the US approach as regards South Africa, with the US being more a supporter of the threat of sanctions and not their actual application. Whether this was for human rights reasons or because the US had certain strategic interests in the RSA (particularly as regards South Africa's valuable minerals and anti-communist position) can be debated. What cannot be contested is that international sanctions could not be effective without the actual physical support of such powerful countries as the US. This is one of the primary reasons which caused the perceived failure of the international sanctions campaign against South Africa. Domestic change began to take place in South Africa at about the same time as other international events were signalling the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the communist system. Although this chapter only covers the period up until 1989, it is worthwhile at this point to note the description given to this new era by American President, George Bush. He described it as an era where all the nations of the world could live in harmony, free from terror. internationalorganisations. He also called for a "partnership of nations" using regional and It soon became apparent, however, that the era of the Cold War was actually more stable than the one that was to follow. The international environment in transition was far more complex than originally anticipated. 53) This inevitably led to changes in role perceptions and the period following 1989 will be discussed in the next chapter. British perceptions in this regard were based on such factors as the value of South Africa for trade purposes and as an anti-communist ally; while the historical ties between the two countries were difficult to avoid. It can be noted that during the period under discussion in this chapter, the UK, an island nation, considered trade to be of vital importance. When Soviet expansionism became clear, the situation caused great alarm and could explain the rationale behind Britain's lack of action against South Africa in the struggle to end apartheid in the RSA. It thus became apparent that Britain depended on the world's sea-lanes and the Cape Sea route played a vital role in this regard. 54) South Africa initially had a supportive friend and ally in the British, until British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan delivered what became known as the "winds of change" speech to the South African Parliament in early 1960. It was during this speech that he referred to the increasing political consciousness sweeping across the African continent. Yet although MacMillan stated that Britain could not support apartheid, he remained opposed to sanctions against South Africa: "I certainly do not believe in refusing to trade with people because you may happen to dislike the way they manage their internal affairs". 55) Although it was deemed improbable that a situation would arise whereby South Africa would engage in war and not the UK, the British Government proceeded to impose an embargo on the export of arms to South Mrica when the Labour Party came to power in Britain in 1964. The communist takeover in Zanzibar had provided the communists with a base in the Indian Ocean on the East coast and this caused some concern, as South Africa would not be able to fulfill her "moral obligation" to the West without the necessary weapons. 56) For Britain and the US, the idea of the USSR as the "enemy", made a convenient scapegoat to justify the refusal to act against White minority rule in South Africa. Britain's Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, had stated that: "Smith should realise that it is most unlikely that international military action including inevitably certain big powers can be delayed for more than a very short period and the likelihood of Russian or East European participation is very grave" m By 1966, speculations of a British withdrawal from Simonstown were rife and the South African Minister of Defence had warned that South Africa could not be relied on in an emergency situation if the necessary armaments were not made available. The South African Navy also offered to take over the primary responsibility for the defence of the Cape Sea Route. When the Middle East crisis erupted that same year, the West suddenly realised the vital importance of the route around the Cape and Western nations appealed to South Africa to keep traffic routes open, especially after the closure of the Suez Canal. Yet the British Government was not prepared to review the arms embargo, even when confronted with the advantages that the RSA had to offer. 58) The Rt. Hon. Geoffrey Rippon, MP, admitted in a Round Table document that should a major conventional war break out, the Cape Sea Route would be of vital importance. He also noted the value of alternative air routes through the South African region; the security of communications; the wealth of minerals available in South Africa which should not fall into communist hands; and the fact that South Africa was the most powerful country in Africa, as regards both industrial and technical capability. Rippon was concerned with increased Russian naval activity throughout the globe and noted that South Africa provided the "only significant friendly maritime force in that part of the world". South Africa was also valuable from a trade and investment point of view, and it was emphasised that the value of British exports to South Africa had increased by 19 percent in a single year. In conclusion, he noted the following regarding South Africa's strategic significance: "Whilst in no way suggesting that the Cape Route is the most important in the world for Britain and NATO, the fact remains that, should it be lost to us in war, our problems would be multiplied enormously". 59) A case was made by the British Government as regards the sale of arms by Britain to South Africa on the grounds that the RSA could contribute to the security of the strategically important Cape Sea Route. It was anticipated that the route around the Cape would eventually increase in significance and that protection of this route was thus vital in light of Soviet naval penetration. South Africa had also demonstrated the ability to playa valuable role in the Southern African region and it was determined that co-operation with the RSA would be more productive than isolation. It was recommended that South Africa's capability as the "one effective and reliable ally of the West in the area" be utilised.60) Spence emphasised that South Africa's willingness to take greater responsibility for the stability and economic development of the region was valuable for Western interests, in that it guaranteed security in an area prone to unrest and outside subversion. Ultimately, Britain's conflicting strategic interests and moral concerns placed the British Governrnent in a difficult situation. The British Minister of State at the Ministry of Defence stated that although morality was important and that principle and policy should be linked: "I fail to see the principle which says that we should trade with them, invest in their country, make money out of their trade ...and give them a greater share in the command structure of the Southern Atlantic, but refuse to sell them maritime equipment".61) Britain thus had various military, political and economic interests in the Indian Ocean region. An example of these economic interests would be that at anyone time during the mid- I980s, approximately one-fifth of the British merchant fleet could be found in the area. Over and above these considerations was the fact that British institutions continued to endure in many of the former colonies.62) These factors all contributed to South Africa's strategic significance. Throughout the years in question, Britain appeared to support South Africa, even to the extent of defending a regime that many nations condemned. Certain ethnic and family ties with many South Africans possibly made the situation even more difficult. Britain also consistently criticised Black violence and insisted that any attempts at change be peaceful ones. Although the US and Britain both condemned South African raids into neighbouring countries, both also initially vetoed UN proposals for sanctions against South Africa. Eventually, Britain conceded to minimal sanctions, but was one of the first nations to oppose such measures as soon as De K1erk became South African president and indicated change. Britain also did not view the ANC in a particularly positive light and in 1987, Mrs Thatcher referred to the ANC as a "typical terrorist organisation". Yet in 1989, Mrs Thatcher told a South African newspaper: "I do not see how, in the modern world, it is possible to achieve political stability except on a basis where all adults have the vote" 63) British relations with South Africa were thus characterised by a certain amount of hypocrisy and in 1988, the British Foreign Secretary, Sir Geoffrey Howe, stated the following in defence of South Africa's sovereignty: "The power of outsiders to influence events in South Africa is limited. They have to find courses of action which will be effective ...The lead for change must come from inside South Africa. We can only give advice and encouragement".64) Although the British Governrnent did vote in 1989 for the UN General Assembly' sDeclaration on Apartheid and its Destructive Consequences in Southern Africa, which contained ANC ideas for a future South Africa, most South African Black organisations viewed Britain with what is classified as "deep suspicion". Mrs Thatcher used the argument that sanctions would only serve to further harm people in Afiica: "The neighbouring countries would be the first to suffer from more general sanctions against South Mrica, and for very understandable reasons have not imposed them themselves". 65) When the Commonwealth countries issued a statement in 1989, that Britain and the other 48 members had agreed that sanctions against South Mrica should remain in place until there was obvious and irreversible change; Britain issued another statement claiming that the Commonwealth should "concentrate on encouraging change rather than on further punishment". The Foreign Secretary even went so far as to claim that: "The Commonwealth statement sets out what the Commonwealth Britain wants". Britain in fact differed from the Commonwealth wants; it does not set out what statement on four issues, namely, she rejected the paragraph which stated that sanctions had begun to influence the policies of South Afiica; she rejected an Australian proposal to investigate ways of increasing financial sanctions and a call to make the arms embargo more effective; she voted against an Australian-Canadian proposal to review the situation a few months later; and she refused to agree to the creation of an independent agency to review and report on South Afiica's financiallinksM) Britain thus perceived the RSA as holding considerable strategic value and little during the Cold War years reflected any change in this perception. Based on such factors as historical ties and South Afiica's significance in the fight against Soviet expansionism, Britain consistently supported South Afiica during the apartheid era. As already noted, not all nations were eager to express official support for South Afiica in light of international condemnation as regards the RSA's apartheid policies. The EC countries were no exception and this has resulted in few official statements of strategic significance in this regard. Yet as will be noted, trade between the EC and South Afiica continued in spite of sanctions and the importance of the Cape Sea Route for this purpose could not be ignored. South Africa's primary value for the EC was as an economic ally. Military technology and assistance received particular attention from France and the French not only maintained a supply of arms to South Afiica, but also assisted in the development of a ground-to-air missile, which Defence Minister P.W. Botha described in May 1969 as "the most advanced and effective weapon of its kind". 67) French, German and Italian interests in the Indian Ocean region were predominantly economic, particularly as regards the oil trade, although France also had strategic concerns in the area which required protection. 68) Western Europe, in fact, imported much of its oil supplies, which then travelled around the Cape. The Cape eventually became one of the most crowded shipping lanes in the world. Add to this South Africa's significance as a strategic minerals supplier and economic trading partner to the West, and the extent of South Africa's importance becomes c1ear.69) It was noted in the early 1970s, that Europe was likely to become even more dependent on outside petroleum sources within the next decade and this would place increasing emphasis on the significance of the Cape Sea Route. 70)These international interests added to the strategic significance of South Africa. The Lome Convention linked many African states with the EC and although the Europeans did not want to have to make a choice between South Africa and the rest of the continent, there were indications that a choice might have to be made at some point in the future. This was indicated by such actions as proposals for stockpiling in Germany and France, and suggestions in the US and Britain that companies should avoid over-dependence on South Africa. 71) EC policy towards South Africa was based on the two aims of economic independence developed Southern African nations, and the abolition ofapartheid.n) for the less Although European policy towards South Africa fluctuated prior to 1990, the 1977 Code of Conduct regulated the employment practices of European firms with subsidiaries in the RSA. Yet by the mid-1980s, there was a certain amount of opposition as regards the implementation of sanctions and there are believed to have been disputes between EC members in this regard which led to a delay in the application of modest trade sanctions until late 1986. This can be considered an indication of South Africa's strategic significance in that certain EC nations were reluctant to impose sanctions and thus lose the benefit of trading with the RSA. Five categories ofEC sanctions were, however, in place by the end of the decade, namely, scientific, military, diplomatic, sport and cultural, and economic. 73) The Code of Conduct, in fact, resulted from attempts by Western governments to achieve reform in South Africa using influence and pressure instead of revolutionary change. Yet, as noted above, although the Code was supported by all Community members, there were differences as regards emphasis and interest. The advantage for Community members in combining as regards operation of the Code was that each member had increased protection from international criticism. Yet the Code was voluntary, partly due to the practical difficulties involved in such factors as investigating breaches. 74) Although the so-called sanctions era resulted in a weakening of international relations, by the mid-1980s, relations were returning to some semblance of normality and in May 1984, P.W. Botha and R.F (Pik) Botha left on a successful eight-nation European visit.7~)It can also be noted that although anti-apartheid lobbyists declared a political victory when companies left the RSA during the 1980s, it has been claimed that the moves were instead motivated by the declining value of South Africa as a market, as a result of high inflation, civil unrest and the collapse of the Rand. European companies were, however, slower than their American counterparts to disinvest.76) By 1989, European foreign ministers were refusing to tighten sanctions, stating that the "time was not right". The fact that British and other EC trade with South Africa had been steadily increasing can be perceived as one of the reasons behind this decision. 77) This indicated continuing perceptions of strategic significance. Thus although official statements regarding South Africa's strategic significance were somewhat muted, partly as a result of the fact that the issue of trade and other relations with South Africa was such a sensitive one, it can be deduced from the above that the perceived importance of the RSA as an economic partner appeared to counter-balance some of the concerns regarding South Africa's internal affairs. The 1960s and accompanying political change in Africa brought many African states to a distinctly hostile stance against South Africa. Yet in the second half of the 1960s, Malawi became the first country not bordering on South Africa to actively support contact with South Africa in public. As already noted, diplomatic relations between the two states were established. This "outward" contact was, however, only explored after the South African Government had established workable relationships with the BLS States, comprising Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland. 78) It was these political, diplomatic and economic ties which prohibited Malawi from joining the African- Bloc's attacks on both Portugal and South Africa. Its delegates generally abstained from voting on resolutions which supported boycotts of Portuguese or South African goods. This abstention was even carried over to the South West African issue, where Malawi once again refused to support resolutions authorising the UN to assume control of South West Africa. Malawi also voted against the expulsion of South Africa from the United Nations Committee on Trade and Development. Although these cordial political relations between South Africa and Malawi were primarily motivated by economic necessity, Malawi's leader, Dr Kamuzu Banda, believed that violence against South Africa would prove largely unsuccessful. The increased liaison with South Africa had several negative effects for Malawi, one of the most important being the resultant collaboration of Tanzania and Zambia with Malawi insurgents. Malawi also became isolated from Black states North of the Zambezi.79) Priorto Rhodesia's Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) on November 11, 1965 (under the Smith Government), South Africa and Rhodesia had enjoyed relatively close trade and commercial links. Yet, as was the case with the Portuguese territories, there was a general "reluctance" by the South African Government to use military or political means to extend these links.80) On the announcement of the UDI, Dr Verwoerd declared that his government would implement a policy of non-intervention and he urged Rhodesia and Britain to resolve their dispute. South Africa attempted to maintain amicable relations with both parties, although economic aid was given to Rhodesia when Britain and other members of the United Nations imposed economic sanctions. As a result of this aid, sanctions against Rhodesia had limited success and this ultimately resulted in African leaders demanding complete mandatory sanctions. These sanctions would be supported by the necessary force to prevent South Africa and Portugal from aiding Rhodesia in any way.81) In spite of the severe condemnation directed at the RSA, a surprising amount of contact was made between South Africa and neighbouring African states; indicating perceptions of strategic significance as regards the RSA's undeniable value and role in the region. South Africa not only maintained relations with British colonies, but also conducted trade, diplomatic or consular relations with various Southern African, as well as other African states, such as Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rhodesia, and Zaire. Most of these formal contacts were gradually terminated as political change began to take place in Africa. Relations with Egypt ended in 1961, while those with Zaire and Kenya were terminated in 1960 and 1963 respectively. Informal relations with Ghana became hostile and Zambia severed links with South Africa in June 1967 when Lusaka prohibited Zambians from working in RSA mines 82) Strained relations between Zambia and South Africa deteriorated further in 1967, when South African police units were sent to the Zambesi Valley in an attempt to assist Rhodesian security forces who were tracking down African guerilla forces in the region. This further strengthened President Kaunda's resolve to avoid becoming an economic hostage of the White-ruled state. He was particularly aware of the fact that Zambia's dependence on South Africa had increased and was determined to seek alternative sources of raw materials, as well as develop other communication links. Kaunda felt vulnerable to South Africa and even attempted to purchase a ground-to-air missile system from the UK in July 1968.83) The South African Prime Minister issued a warning to the Zambian government that force would be met with force if necessary, although it was stressed that South Africa preferred to avoid violence. This was in response to Zambian demands that aid to Rhodesia be halted. Tensions between the two states continued to be strained, however, as a result ofKaunda's willingness to allow "freedom fighters", whose targets lay across the Zambezi, to operate from bases in Zambia. 84) Yet it is interesting to note that the Zambian Minister of Foreign Affairs noted in 1986, that the establishment of Marxism in South Africa would result in the entire Southern African region becoming communist states.85) This can be considered a reference to the RSA's strategic significance as an anti-communist force. South Africa attempted to resist communist control in the Southern African region by taking military action in neighbouring countries. The SADF assisted Renamo in Mozambique in their struggle against the Marxist Government and also assisted UNIT A (Uniao National para a Independencia Total de Angola) in Angola in an attempt to convince the Marxist MPLA (Movimento Popular de Liberta~ao de Angola) Government to deny bases to SW APO and thus restrict the war to Angola. 86) It has already been established that a nonaggression pact, the Nkomati Accord, was eventually signed between South Africa and Mozambique in March 1984.87) The Angolan issue is discussed in further detail at a later stage. It was noted in 1988 that only a "handful" of African states had gone to the aid of the Frontline states in their battle against the South African regime's policy. Several states, including Mauritius, the Seyshelles and the Comoros were, in fact, criticised for their continuing trade links with South Africa.88) This can be considered indicative of the RSA's continuing strategic significance to the region, particularly as regards trade. In May 1988, the OAU' s African Liberation Committee issued the Harare Declaration on the Total Decolonisation of Africa and the Elimination of Apartheid, which called for an increase in the armed struggle and supported comprehensive sanctions against South Africa. OAU member states who continued to collaborate with South Africa were also condemned.89) Realising the seriousness of the situation, especially as regards the armed struggle, various Western countries held the perception that sanctions could prove an alternative to violence.90) The armed struggle was eventually suspended in 199091) Kaunda, in fact welcomed the coming to power ofF. W. de Klerk in 1989 and was prepared to meet the new South Africa President. At the 1989 Kuala Lumpur Commonwealth Summit, however, Kaunda insisted that sanctions be maintained.92) Yet he had stated that he hoped to promote negotiations between the ANC and the Pretoria Administration93) The perception was thus that although the Frontline States were more receptive to the idea of welcoming South Africa into the regional community, any major changes in relations would only occur following permanent reform in the RSA. Two states, however, will be highlighted due to their direct significance to South Africa, namely, South West AfricalNamibia and Angola. South West Africa became a League of Nations mandate territory under South Africa's administration after the First World War. Smuts approached the UN (the League had since dissolved) after the Second World War and requested approval for the incorporation of the mandate territory into South Africa. It was stressed that South West Africa was well-suited to incorporation as it was geographically indistinguishable from South Africa and economic integration was also firmly entrenched. Security was another reason behind the request in that South West Africa had been a centre for pro-German sentiments and activity during both World Wars. The UN rejected the request for incorporation and an "impasse" was reached in 1946 which dragged on for many years. 94) It was announced by Prime Minister Malan in late 1948, that the territory would be administered as an integral part of South Africa. Two resolutions were passed by the General Assembly in November 1953, one regarding a seven-man commission to study the situation, and the other demanding that the territory be placed under UN trusteeship.9S) SW APO became the main focus of opposition to South African rule and although the organisation initially sought change by peaceful means, the armed struggle was later launched. Resolution 2145 was passed in 1966 by the UN General Assembly, stating that South West Africa was the direct responsibility of the UN. South Africa promptly ignored this decision, built up the country's military potential in the territory and in 1969, passed the South West Africa Affairs Bill, which incorporated South West Africa into the RSA. In 1971, the International Court ruled that South Africa was occupying the territory illegally and thus began a long battle between South Africa and the world community, the latter represented by the UN. SW APO continued its activities against the RSA and a significant change occurred with the end of Portuguese control in Angola, when SW APO was able to establish bases in Southern Angola. It was from this moment that the war against SWAPO in South West Africa became linked to the civil war in Angola.96) According to Prime Minister Vorster, South Africa had over the years repeatedly attempted to find an acceptable basis for negotiations with the UN in order to solve the problem.97) In 1976, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 385 which condemned the RSA for, amongst other things, her "continued illegal occupation" of South West Africa; as well as the use of the territory as "a base for attacks on neighbouring countries".98) Although South Africa formally agreed on 10 June 1977 to accept a transitional government in the territory that would include SWAPO, Resolution 435 resulted from South Africa's rejection of the Waldheim recommendation in 1978, that 7500 UN personnel were required to implement the independence plan. This resolution endorsed the Waldheim plan for Namibian independence and left the responsibility for law and order during the transition period to South Africa, but under the supervision of up to 10 000 UN personnel.99) Throughout the 1980s, the South African Government responded to international pressure regarding the South West AfricalNamibia issue with various statements emphasising the dangers of communist expansionism and thus the importance of the RSA as an anti-communist stalwart on the African continent. P.W. Botha insisted that the issue for the communists was not South West Africa and its people, but that the actual target was South Africa.1OO) Aware of the possibility of mandatory sanctions should the RSA not comply, Resolution 435 was eventually implemented in the late 1980s. Although this chapter only deals with the era up until 1989, it can be noted at this point that South African President F.W. de Klerk even attended Namibian independence celebrations on 21 March 1990.101) Angola did not have extensive economic or political links with South Africa, but did share a common border with Namibia, which as noted above, had been under South African control prior to independence. Following the Portuguese withdrawal and establishment ofa Marxist MPLA Government in Angola, South Africa and the US supported the rival Unita movement (in opposition to the Cubans, East Germans and Russians). It has already been established that South Africa was particularly concerned about SWAPO guerrillas based in Angola who were challenging for control of South West Africa.102) Although South Africa decided not to intervene in the conflict in Mozambique in the mid-1970s (Mozambique eventually reached independence in 1975), the opposite approach was adopted with regard to Angola. In October 1975, South African military forces crossed into Angola. The South Africans were, however, forced to withdraw when no Western support was provided. The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 103) 387 in 1976, which condemned South Africa for her "aggression against the People's Republic of Angola" and demanded that South Africa "scrupulously respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the People's Republic of Angola" .104) Throughout the next decade, South Africa used the presence of SW APO bases in Southern Angola as a justification for cross-border attacks, yet these were often in support of UNIT A operations. In the 1980s, the US made it clear that any settlement in Namibia had to be accompanied by a Cuban withdrawal from Angola. The civil war continued through 1984-5 and South Africa continued to maintain an extensive military presence in the South of the country. !OS) The Lusaka Agreement resulted when the SADF struck deeply into Angola and insisted on assurances that SW APO would not take advantage of the situation should South Africa withdraw. turn comply with UN Resolution 435 if the Cuban troops were withdrawn. South Africa would in Angola and South Africa 106) 107 had thus announced in Lusaka that joint steps had been established for a ceasefire. ) In 1988, Cuba agreed to the above conditions and the RSA's withdrawal indicated the end of the destabilisation policy against all Frontline States, as the country now wanted to be perceived as a responsible member of the international community and did not want to damage this new image. 108) There was, however, one particular Southern African organisation which played an especially prominent role in the international battle against apartheid and South Africa's economic dominance in the region, namely, the SADCC. Perceptions of the RSA's strategic significance were predominantly dictated by South Africa's economic capability in the Southern African region. Circumstances and geography thus forced the Frontline States to adopt their role in relation to South Africa. Zimbabwe was the key to the Frontline States because of its central geographical position, level of economic development and important position as regards the region's road and rail transport links. The SADCC actually only became a viable possibility following an end to the war in Rhodesia when an independent Zimbabwe emerged in 1980.1(9) The foundation for the SADCC was laid in Arusha, Tanzania, in July 1979, with the actual inauguration taking place in April 1980.110) It was noted that Southern communications, Africa was dependent on the RSA, particularly the import and export of goods, and migrant labour. as regards transport and The reduction of economic dependence and the promulgation of regional integration were thus important aims. Ill) Yet the SADCC's executive secretary, Simba Makoni, announced in 1987 that the creation of the SADCC had not specifically been a move against South Africa. 112) Pretoria responded to the development of the SADCC by attempting to maintain economic hegemony in the region, largely by using the policy of destabilisation. The strategy of the SADCC was to increase regional co-operation, the key to which lay in the development and upgrade of the regional system of transport and communications. The SADCC's weakness, however, resulted from its dependence on international aid to fund its policies. By the 1980s, the apartheid system was viewed so negatively that not even the governments of Reagan in the USA, Thatcher in Britain or Kohl in West Germany would openly support Pretoria. The SADCC offered an alternative for the countries who wanted to avoid a stronger Western policy and aid thus proved generous1l3) Nonetheless, in 1985, the Frontline States called on Western states to "broaden and intensify the pressure" of sanctions. Lesotho, Malawi and Swaziland later joined their callI14) Harare was the venue for the 1986 congress of the Non-Aligned Movement and the occasion was used to increase pressures for sanctions against South Africa. A call was also made on Third World countries to support the economies of the Frontline States. Britain was in the meantime under attack from other Commonwealth members for her refusal to apply sanctions to South Mrica and responded by increasing aid to Mozambique during the 1980s. Britain was also providing military training for the armies of Botswana and Zimbabwe; while the EC pledged a considerable sum for rehabilitation work on two of Mozambique' s railways. South Africa in turn became aware that investments could now find their way to neighbouring states, although in real terms, Western aid remained minimal. Yet Western strategy was to give relatively generous aid to SADCC countries instead of applying meaningful sanctions or other pressures to South Africa, thus indicating a certain perception of the RSA's strategic significance and a distinct lack of desire to completely alienate South Africa. 115) Although the SADCC was considered a success, it became increasingly evident that most Western investors appeared more interested in the new opportunities presented by the changes in Eastern Europe. It was thus hoped that a reformed South Africa might eventually join the SADCC: "We will definitely want to take advantage of the strength and the advances achieved in the South Africa economy to act as a motor for spurring development...our first act upon the termination of apartheid will be to admit an independent and democratic South Africa into the SADCC family"y6l It was also noted that the US State Department had insisted that South Africa could not be ignored as regards economic development in the Southern African region. 117) The Frontline States thus found it difficult, if not impossible, to ignore South Mrica's strategic significance as a vital regional player and the attitudes of these states varied according to their ability to withstand pressure from South Africa. Zimbabwe, however, faced up to the regional realities at independence when President Mugabe stated that: "We must accept that South Africa is a geographical reality and, as such, we must have some minimum relationship with it". 118) As noted, the SADCC states experienced a definite degree of economic dependence on South Africa and their economies were thus linked to that of the RSA. Although the international sanctions campaign against South Africa will be discussed at a later stage of this chapter, it is pertinent at this point to discuss the effect of sanctions on these neighbouring states as this reflects the RSA's strategic significance to a certain extent. Six of the nine SADCC member states are landlocked, thus emphasising the importance of South African infrastructure for trade. Telecommunications were also involved in that in 1980, only 14 direct telephone links out ofa possible 72 existed among SADCC member states. Links thus had to be routed through South Africa and to a lesser extent, Western Europe. Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland were largely dependent on energy imports from South Afiica, particularly as regards oil. Malawi also imported forty percent of its domestic oil requirements. Food was a further important import, especially as agricultural and food output in the region could not keep pace with rapid population growth; while industrial development in the SADCC region was poor. 119) It is thus clear that the member states of the SADCC found it difficult to implement economic sanctions against South Africa without causing considerable damage to their own economies. A Gaborone press release in May 1979 referred to the situation as one of "brutal structural reality", where South Africa would "naturally" dominate the area as a result of the RSA's size, wealth, technological and military capabilities. South Africa also possessed the most trained labour force. 120) Thus although the stability and prosperity of the Southern African region was considered vital for the advancement of Western interests, interests were more specific for South Africa's neighbours.121) Approximately 12-21 percent of Mozambican, Zambian and Zimbabwean imports were from South Africa, although only Zimbabwe and Swaziland were exporting significant amounts to South Africa. Five SADCC states also had migrant labourers in South Africa, many of them working in RSA mines. Lesotho obtained all of its electricity from South Africa; while Swaziland, Botswana and Mozambique also obtained about one-third of their electricity from the RSA 122) When OAU Ministers in 1980 called for increased supervision of oil tanker traffic to South Africa, in preparation for an oil embargo, it was also indicated that studies should be undertaken to determine the impact of such moves on the economies of Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana and Zimbabwe.I23) It was thus clear that the strategic significance of South Africa to the economies of these countries could not be ignored. As indicated in the previous chapter, the asymmetrical interdependence between South Africa and other states in the Southern African region was regularly emphasised by the South African Government. The creation of so-called buffer states where the RSA could exert political, military and economic influence served to increase the dependence of these states on the goodwill of South Africa. They were also tied to the economic success of the RSA In the mid-1980s, Zimbabwe was considered the most developed of the Black Southern African countries. Yet its economy was dependent on trade and the use of South African ports and railroads for this purpose. Thus although the Zimbabwean Government supported sanctions, it was difficult to fully participate in their application. Botswana is another example of a country in a situation of economic dependence and this was noted by Botswana's External Affairs Secretary who stated that: "We appreciate why certain countries want sanctions, but we ourselves cannot impose sanctions". Zambia's economy was dependent on the export of copper, up to half of which travelled across South Africa. In 1982, South Africa also replaced the UK as Zambia's primary source of imports, which mainly consisted of machinery and transport equipment, food, fuels, chemicals, and manufactured itemsl24) Countries such as Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho were thus described as having high degrees of asymmetrical interdependence with South Africa. As a result, Swaziland's conservative government actually supported South Africa and the country's Prime Minister made the following statement as regards sanctions: "We in Swaziland cannot support any action which will eventually threaten our own survival". Malawi maintained full diplomatic relations with the RSA, through which most of its tobacco and tea crop was exported. South African tourists were another source of income. Mozambique was also relatively dependent on the RSA, particularly as regards use of the Mozambican port of Maputo. 125) It is thus clear from the above that it was relatively impossible for many Southern African states to implement sanctions against South Africa, no matter how much they opposed the apartheid regime. They instead had to be satisfied with pressurising the larger, more powerful states to impose sanctions against the RSA as these states were less likely to suffer economic hardship as a result. South Africa was thus vital to the political and economic future of the Southern African region, possessing both military supremacy and a strong economy. The RSA was, in fact, the region's primary source of technology, employment, capital, management, agricultural and manufactured goods, as well as internal markets. The country's transport infrastructure was also difficult to avoid. It can be noted that when President P. W. Botha announced in September 1985 that South African citizenship would be restored to residents of the four so-called independent homelands, namely, Bophuthatswana, Transkei, Ciskei, and Venda, this was considered significant as the homelands policy was a vital part of the apartheid view. Yet the perception was that this gradual movement away from apartheid was more the result of domestic and not international pressure, as the latter only served to increase resistanceI261 South Africa's perceived strategic significance thus played an important role in the decision taken by many Southern African states not to impose strict economic sanctions against the RSA. Relations between South Africa and many African states gradually improved during the 1980s as reform in the RSA began to take place. These improved relations were not, however, always publici sed as many African states continued to publically berate South Africa's internal policies and insisted on continuing the sanctions campaign until a democratically-elected government was in place. International sanctions can, however, be considered to have failed in their primary objective offorcing the South African Government to accept democratic elections under a one-man-one-vote system, partly as a result of South Africa's economic strength and partly because of their incomplete application by states who were too dependent on South Afiica. This can be considered an indication of the RSA's strategic significance as trade with South Africa was considered important enough to prevent the application of sanctions by certain African states. It can be noted at this point that there is a general lack of sources regarding official Soviet perceptions of South Africa's strategic importance during the period under discussion. A c~rtain amount of deduction, based on the extent of Soviet-SA relations, will thus be necessary as regards determining alter perceptions of strategic significance. Although the West emphasised the Soviet desire for communist expansionism in Africa, Soviet interest also appeared to be focused on the RSA's mineral resources, particularly those minerals which could only be found in two places, namely, the RSA and the Soviet Union. Control of South Africa's minerals would thus leave the Soviet Union with valuable bargaining power. There have been two arguments regarding Soviet interest in the Southern African region in general and South Africa in particular, the one contradicting the other. The first argument, as relentlessly pursued by the South Government itself and much of the Western World, was that communist expansionism in the region was a reality, with the ultimate goal of denying South Africa's strategic minerals and the use of the Cape Sea Route to the rest of the world. Once South Africa had fallen to communist control, it would also be easier to destabilise and control the rest of the region, thus denying the West access to its numerous political, economic and strategic interests. Mention has been made of the so-called "weak link" principle, which implied that the Soviets would be able to ensure US economic and political concessions as a result of the nation's dependence on external sources of strategic mineralsY7) Supporters of this theory define the key objectives of Soviet policy in Africa as expanding the nation's political and economic influence; diminishing Western influence; extending the global reach of Soviet military delivery capacity; and counteracting the influence of the People's Republic of China in Africa. 12K) According to Dr Igor Glagolev, who served as a consultant to the Politburo of the Communist Party ofthe Soviet Union, Southern Africa formed the most dynamic part of the free world and Soviet policymakers were intent on acquiring the riches of this region. The programme adopted by the Soviet Communist Party in 1961 eventually included what Glagolev terms "active preparation for the future conquest of Africa". The goal of world domination was considered a long-range aim, although important Soviet policymakers had admitted that the governments of countries such as South Africa would be "liquidated". Glagolev was convinced that a communist takeover in Southern Africa would have enormous repercussions for the entire free world, including a reduction in the availability of strategic minerals and a resultant recession in the West. 129) In 1985, the London Times detailed an assessment of Soviet influence in the Southern African region and referred to the Cape as a prize for Soviet foreign policy. Aside from the RSA's strategic minerals, South Africa was also an important trading partner for many countries. The article suggested that: "The indications are that Russian policy is directed not towards the rapid overthrow of the Pretoria government, but rather to a long period of destabilisation for the country leading only eventually - if possible - to the establishment of a government dominated by Moscow". 130) Although the world was surprised at the lack of attention paid to the Third World by Mikhail Gorbachev in his Political Report to the 27th Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1986 (in contrast to the early 1980s when Brezhnev emphasised Soviet achievements in this part ofthe globe), it was stressed that this did not actually indicate a curtailment of activities in the Third World. The belief was that the Soviets were merely re-adjusting their focus and priorities. There was evidence to indicate that there had been increased Soviet economic, diplomatic, political, and military activity in the Southern Mrican region.l3I) There also appeared to be a particular emphasis on economic benefit for the USSR. 132) The second argument as regards the ultimate aim of Soviet policy in the Southern African region, emphasised that the above scenario was unrealistic in that it exaggerated Soviet capacity and undervalued Western strengths. It was, however, noted that access to naval basing facilities in Southern Africa would reduce transit time for the Soviets as regards the projection of a naval presence in the Indian Ocean and the maintenance of naval forces. Yet this argument also maintained that even Soviet economic co-operation with the Third World was limited and that resource denial was not a "discernible" goal of Soviet policy. Underlying this entire argument was thus the fact that although Soviet interests in this part of the globe were real, they were not considered vital. Strategic involvement instead formed a part of overall superpower rivalry133) In fact, the West was considered to hold more ofa threat as regards competition for mineral reserves in that other nations could be denied access to these same sources. 134)Although there is a general lack of information as regards true Soviet interests in South Africa, a few Soviet statements were made and one involves support for the above theory: "Through the medium of the Union of South Africa the US monopolies are striving to take control of South West Africa with its vast reserves of extremely important strategic raw materials -copper and vanadium". 135) During an interview with Olzhas Suleimenov, member of the Congress of People's Deputies and the Supreme Soviet, Suleimenov emphasised the fact that the Soviet Union was not interested in South African mineral reserves and instead preferred to concentrate Kazakhstan. on accessing strategic minerals which lay in As regards relations with South Africa, Suleimenov stated that the Soviet Union supported the UN in the condemnation of apartheid. Moscow wanted human values to prevail in the RSA, without ethnic or social domination and suggested the release of political prisoners and the unbanning of the ANC. 136) As evidence of a change in Soviet policy towards South Africa, a former director of the Africa Institute in Moscow emphasised in 1980 that the USSR did not want to prescribe any course of action to the RSA or the ANC. The solution to South Africa's problems would thus come from within the country itself This can be considered a marked change to previous years when the Soviet Union had supported military confrontation in the Southern African region. It had apparently become Soviet policy to promote stability in the developing world in order to prevent possible superpower involvement which could rapidly escalate. A Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister in fact acknowledged that the USSR was willing to play the role of mediator as regards the South African issue.137} In conjunction with his "Perestroika" line of thought, Gorbachev himself indicated that the USSR would respect Western interests, including access to South Africa's minerals: "I have explained on many occasions that we do not pursue goals inimical to Western interests. We know how important...other Third World regions and also South Africa are for American and West European economies, in particular as raw material sources. To cut these links is the last thing we want to do, and we have no desire to provoke ruptures in historically formed, mutual economic interests". 138)Gorbachev was noted as being eager for economic cooperation to replace ideological conflict.139) Although the USSR supported UN sanctions against South Africa, the two countries did apparently share a secret relationship for the marketing of gold and diamonds, emphasising once again the value of economic interests over political concerns.l40} In fact, although South Africa and the West had for years emphasised the "communist threat" in the Southern African region, it has been theorised that the region did not form part of short- or medium-term USSR priorities. US SR support was instead given to the ANC and for the international sanctions campaign, which as noted above, was ignored at times.14l} The Current Digest of the Soviet Press had indicated as early as the 1970s, that the Soviet Union continued to support those who were fighting social, national and racial oppression, including those in South Africa and that political ties in this regard were being increased: "The Soviet Union is expanding its political ties with the developing countries ...the Soviet Union's mutually advantageous economic cooperation with the young states has a solid foundation and good prospects". 142} Economic concerns were thus already a feature of Soviet policy and increased the level of strategic significance awarded to South Africa and other states on the African continent. Yet on the surface, support was given to the application of sanctions against South Africa: "In its foreign policy activities, the Soviet Union firmly and unswervingly supports all UN decisions and recommendations in regard to the boycott of Pretoria's racist regime".143} Throughout the period under discussion in this chapter, the Soviet Union did hold certain perceptions as regards South Africa's strategic significance. These perceptions were originally based on the RSA's vast quantities of strategic minerals. With the USSR being one of the few, ifnot the only, other country to have such a natural supply, control of South Africa's minerals by the Soviets would have extensive implications for the international community. During the Cold War years, South Africa's position at the tip of Africa was of particular interest to the USSR as this was along one of the world's most valuable trade routes. There was also the important position of South Africa as an anti-communist ally for the West on a continent where the USSR was trying to expand its influence. Towards the end of the Cold War, however, it would at least appear that the RSA started to assume a certain degree of value as a stabilising force in the region. In the pre-1990 period, there can be no denying that the official focus of relations between South Africa and other countries was centred around the threat and application of international sanctions, in an attempt to coerce the South African Government to change its internal policies. Many countries across the globe were determined to effect change in South Africa, but the level of action varied from intense support for comprehensive sanctions from the African states, to attempts by the US Government to forestall Congress in their goal of extensive sanctions. Ultimately, the sanctions campaign covered most of South Africa's activities and the RSA became one of the world's pariah states. South Africa became an international outcast as a result of the country's apartheid policies and contact with the outside world was gradually reduced over a period spanning approximately four decades. There was little doubt that South Africa was effectively isolated from the international community and by 1989, the RSA's isolation stretched over four areas, namely, diplomatic, military, economic, and socio-cultural. The international crusade against South Africa took various forms and the eradication of apartheid became a moral issue for many international governmental and non-governmental organisations, as well as individual governments and various private organisations. The UN became the focal point for punitive measures against South Africa from the very first session of the General Assembly in 1946. A sanction has been described as a "threatened evil", the purpose of which is "to induce the threatened state to refrain from certain conduct and instead do something else". Some unlawful act is committed prior to the imposition of sanctions, which may take the form of economic coercion; armed force; the termination of rail, sea and air links; exclusion from international institutions; the severance of diplomatic relations; and non-recognition of a state or territorial acquisition. 144) In order for sanctions to be effective, they must be strictly enforced by a broad spectrum of countries. This type of uniform enforcement is, however, difficult to achieve. Economic sanctions have thus seldom been effective. The arms embargo against South Africa presents examples of circumvention and the RSA was also able to establish a domestic armaments industry. The most successful use of sanctions has been when they have been deployed by a strong state against a weaker state with which it is asymmetrically interdependent. Other policy guidelines as regards the probability of the successful application of sanctions include the fact that they must be in the self-interest of the countries whose co-operation is required; they should be applied in a short time-frame; and should also be specific in nature. 145) One of the factors which resulted in Western resistance to sanctions against the RSA was the knowledge that South Africa forms an integral part of an interdependent region. Sanctions could thus effect the entire region. Economic sanctions against South Africa have included sanctions against the provision of defence industry goods and services; the sale of nuclear technology; the importation or sale of Krugerrands; the sale of oil; and the extension of loans. The RSA attempted to counteract or at least reduce the impact of these sanctions by locating alternative sources or turning to domestic capabilities. 146) It should also be noted that South Africa could not be classified as economically or militarily weak when the arms embargo was deciared.147) The success of sanctions thus depends to a large extent on the economic and political stability of the target. As already established, the South African economy did eventually weaken by the mid-l 980s as a result of numerous factors, thus increasing the possibility of success for economic sanctions Those who opposed sanctions or disinvestment against South Africa did so on the grounds that they were immoral; contrary to the wishes of most Black South Africans; and counter-productive in that they harmed the very people they were supposed to help. Sanctions were deemed not only disastrous for the economies of neighbouring states, but also their political stability, and were considered to be mere interference by selfinterested foreign nations.148) Apartheid has, however, been widely criticised on the international front in accordance with the UN Charter, which obligates states to promote respect for human rights without distinctions based on race. The 1966 International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the 1973 International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid denounced apartheid as unlawful. The International Court of Justice also declared it to be contrary to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter; while apartheid has been labelled an "international crime" by the International Law Commission and other international bodies. Although a mandatory arms embargo was eventually declared in 1977 against South Africa, attempts to extend this to include extensive economic sanctions failed due to the veto power of certain Western powers, including the US. Eventually the US Congress adopted the CAAA of 1986; the Nordic countries imposed a total trade ban on South Africa; and the Commonwealth countries, as well as the European Economic Community (EEC), imposed collective sanctions.149) The UN Security Council is authorised under Chapter VII of the UN Charter to order enforcement action against any state that threatens international peace, should it find that this is a "threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression" under article 39 of the Charter. It should also be noted that the five permanent members of the Security Council, namely, the US, the United Kingdom, France, China, and the Soviet Union, have the power to block a resolution by means of a veto. The US and the UK in particular utilised this veto regarding efforts to declare punitive sanctions against South Africa. Most of the Security Council resolutions on South Africa were, however, adopted under Chapter VI of the Charter, which states that the Security Council may recommend measures to rectify a situation that is "likely to endanger" or "disturbs" international peace. The UN General Assembly, however, is limited solely to the making of recommendations Council. which ultimately mobilise international public opinion and pressurise the Security 150) India was the first nation to impose trade sanctions against South Africa when in 1946, legislation was passed by the South African Government restricting Indian land ownership in the RSA This was followed by an appeal to the conscience of the international world to take action against racism in South Africa. While many countries were spurred into action, the US not only withheld even verbal condemnation, but until 1958, abstained from voting on UN General Assembly resolutions which condemned South Africa's racial policies. This action was defended by Article 2(7) of the UN Charter which stipulates non-interference in domestic affairs. The South African Government continued to refuse to discuss the country's treatment of its Indian population during the late 1940slearly 1950s on the same grounds.151) Apartheid appeared on the agenda of the General Assembly by the early 1950s and the first resolutions in this regard consisted primarily of appeals to observe the Charter's human rights obligations, as the situation was not yet considered a danger to international peace and security. After 1960, international outrage at the situation in South Africa deepened with the independence of several African states and their accept~ce into the UN. States were requested by the General Assembly in 1961 to consider taking both separate and collective action against South Africa. This was followed by appeals to member states to cease diplomatic relations with the RS~ as well as boycott all South African goods; close their ports to South African ships; prohibit the export of goods to South Afri~ and refuse landing and passage facilities to all South African aircraft. Although the RSA's primary trading partners did not implement many of the non-mandatory recommendations, South Africa did become more isolated on the international front. 152) The UN General Assembly had by this time realised that the appeals of approximately two decades had practically been ignored and members were "discouraged" in the 1960s from collaborating with the South African Government on economic matters. Apartheid was declared "a crime against humanity" Assembly Resolution 1761 (XVIII) .153) General of November 6, 1962, called for: "Boycotting all South African goods and refraining from exporting goods, including all arms and ammunition, to South Africa" ,154) The Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the arms embargo in 1963, which called upon: "All states to cease forthwith the sale and shipment of arms, ammunition of all types, and military vehicles to South Africa", 155) Although the UN General Assembly in 1969 requested that the Security Council consider the idea of using force against apartheid and pressurising the South African Government to release political prisoners, the US vetoed the idea. 156) In 1970, the UN Security Council called on member states to strictly implement the arms embargo against South Africa. The aim of such restrictions was to isolate the RSA and coerce the disintegration of the apartheid policy.157)By the mid-1970s, the US, France and Britain had vetoed a mandatory arms embargo against South Africa in response to continued RSA presence in Namibia; although the US and its Western allies eventually voted for the already-mentioned UN Security Council Resolution 385, which stipulated an end to racial discrimination and political repression in Namibia; the repatriation of exiles; the release of political prisoners; and free elections which could be held under UN supervision.158) In 1977, following local unrest, the "massive violence against and wanton killings of the African people" was condemned by the Security Council. Resolution 418 imposed a mandatory arms embargo against South Africa and stated that: "The acquisition by South Africa of arms and related materiel constitutes a threat to the maintenance of international peace and security". 159)The arms embargo against South Africa was significant in that it represented the first time that the Security Council had ordered enforcement action against a member state. The US (Reagan Administration) and the UK (Thatcher Government), however, once again utilised their vetos to prevent further mandatory sanctions. 160)Security Council Resolution 421 provided for a committee of the Security Council to monitor the implementation of Resolution 418.161) A state of emergency was called in South Africa in 1985 and this was followed by Security Council Resolution 569, which called for the lifting of the state of emergency and urged member states to implement such measures as the prohibition of all new contracts in the nuclear field; the suspension of new investments; the restriction of sports and cultural relations; the prohibition of all sales of computer equipment for use by South African military and police services; the suspension of guaranteed export loans; and the prohibition of the sale of Krugerrands. 162) President Botha opened parliament in 1986 and announced that the idea of an undivided South Africa with only "one citizenship" had been formally accepted and Blacks were now offered an advisory role in government. Yet he refused to negotiate with the ANC and had no intention of accepting a one-man-one- vote or Black majority rule in a unified South Africa. 163)This did not find favour with the international community and the sanctions campaign continued. In 1986, 126 member states thus voted in favour of a resolution calling on the Security Council to impose mandatory economic sanctions against the South Africa. 164) One of the most serious implications of the sanctions campaign was the limiting of the inflow of foreign capital into South Africa, which would have had serious implications for the RSA' s economy had sanctions been extensively applied. Yet many states continued to trade with the RSA and between 1965 and 1975, the net inflow offoreign capital increased from R 225 million to R 1774 million. The UK was one of South Afiica's most important sources offoreign capital, although the US, France and Germany also constituted sources. 165) As noted, the UK remained opposed to economic sanctions against the RSA, using the rationale that sanctions would inflict damage on all involved parties and not just the South Afiican Government. Although countries in Europe did apply certain sanctions, there were differences in application degree of ineffectiveness as regards the application of sanctions. This led to a certain Local governments, labour unions, businesses, and both the private and public sectors of the international community, also became involved in the sanctions movement.I66) The main emphasis of the public sanctions movement was on disinvestment and divestment. The former is defined as "selling or writing off direct, subsidiary, or other business investments in South Afiica"; while the latter is the "elimination of any indirect investments in South Afiica by selling equity investments in companies that either possess investments in South Afiica or conduct business with South Afiica". Consumer boycott actions in the US and Europe did not achieve much success, but several major corporations such as Apple Computer and PepsiCo did take disinvestment action. Coca-Cola was one company which while deciding to reduce its investments, believed that its presence in South Afiica was beneficial from an employment perspective. 167) As has been indicated, contraventions of the international sanctions campaign did indeed occur and several of these are discussed below. There were various allegations of contraventions of the arms embargo and boycotts against South Afiica and these reflect the fact that the RSA's strategic significance prevented the universal application of sanctions. Of all the international sanctions applied against South Afiica, the international arms embargo probably received the most emphasis. It has, however, been noted that, as was the case with the oil embargo, the arms embargo did not result in internal reform in the RSA in that South Afiica merely developed a strong local defence industry in order to counteract the restrictions. In response to increasing international calls for the boycotting of South Afiican goods and military equipment, the RSA sought intermediaries for these exports to prevent announcement of origin. Several countries are mentioned in this regard, including the UK, FR Germany and Israel. The US also imported South Afiican equipment for military purposes. Such products increasingly fell under the category of dualuse equipment which was not affected by the arms embargo. As regards the South Afiican arms industry, the declared export policy from 1982 had been aimed at Afiica, Latin America, the Far East', and the Middle East. Portugal, Malawi and Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) were all customers, Botswana, Swaziland, and Lesotho. as were Mozambique, South African military support, in fact, assisted Rhodesia sufficiently enough to survive UN and British economic and military sanctions. Chile, Guatemala and Paraguay are noted as "keeping up relations" with South Africa as regards defence matters; while other customers have been Morocco, Iran and Israel. Technological co-operation with Taiwan also took place. 16K) Yet these are not the only countries which through the years have allowed South Mrica access to foreign technology. Others include Italy, France, Japan, Belgium, Austria, Canada, and the Netherlands. 169)Many countries have used so-called "loopholes" embargoes. in UN embargo legislation in order to circumvent these It is noted that the initiative for an embargo against South Africa came from the Third World nations in the UN and not from the West. The result was a distinct hesitancy by Western nations to impose severe sanctions against South Africa. 170)This hesitancy can be considered a result of the RSA's perceived importance to the West. South Africa's dependence on oil has been discussed in preceding chapters. This particular section will take a brief look at efforts to circumvent the oil embargo and will highlight the increasing importance of economic interests over political concerns. In other words, a state's strategic significance became more closely linked with economic opportunities. It is generally accepted that the oil embargo against South Africa did not achieve much success. Other than the imposition of extensive costs, South Africa did not experience too much difficulty in obtaining oil imports. Opposition by the UK and the US within the UN Security Council prevented the oil embargo from becoming mandatory in nature, although most UN members voluntarily adopted an oil embargo, as did organisations such as the EC and the Commonwealth. The embargo was also endorsed by all the primary oil exporting countries, including the member states of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).171) Most of South Africa's oil in the 1970s came from Iran, resulting in minimal effect from the OPEC and OAPEC boycotts. The fall of the Shah of Iran, however, changed this situation and the RSA lost her primary supplier. Pretoria managed to buy oil from various countries between 1979 and 1982, although sources then began to diminish. Brunei became a supplier for a while, until a ban in this regard was introduced in 1987. Approximately 35 percent of South Africa's imported crude oil had been carried on Norwegian-owned or managed ships, but this arrangement followed a similar fate as that with Brunei in accordance with 1987 Norwegian legislation. This legislation, however, had an extensive loophole as it was still permissible to transport oil to South Africa on Norwegian ships if the oil was resold on the high seas. According to the Shipping Research Bureau, much of the oil shipped to the RSA originated in a few oilexporting countries, particularly in the Persian Gulf area, namely, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Western shipping companies, especially from Greece, Hong Kong, West Germany, and the UK then carried the oil to South Africa using their tankers. 172) It is thus relatively clear that although damaging to the South African economy, international sanctions were not able to achieve their ultimate objective, namely coercing the government to change internal policies. This was a result of the fact that South Africa was not only well-positioned in the global environment, but also held extensive international economic contacts and possessed a relatively strong national capability. Historically, South Africa has maintained a relative degree of strategic significance as regards the international community. The country's abundance of natural resources, particularly minerals; her strategic location and historical ties with the United Kingdom; as well as her economic strength and strong anticommunist stance, have all played a role in South Africa's importance to the rest of the world. Even throughout the sanctions era, politicians testified that this case was not as simple as that of Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe). It was the RSA's perceived strategic significance which, in fact, became a deciding factor in the application of further sanctions, as a result of the factors noted above. In the era following the Cold War, South Africa's national capability was likely to become even more important for the rest ofthe African continent as the country headed towards increasing regional commitments. South Africa's status of strategic significance is the result ofa complex historical inheritance. Yet it has been with the Third World that South Africa has held great attraction, and the interdependence between South Africa and the rest of Africa was likely to increase as the "old" Europe with its East-West divisions crumbled as a result of the collapse of communism. With much of the international community in turmoil, the African continent was bound to experience a definite lack of interest and a reduction in funding from the outside world. Countries would thus become increasingly dependent on neighbouring states. As one of the most powerful states in Africa, South Africa could be a valuable ally and trading partner within the Mrican region and it was difficult to perceive South Africa as being excluded from this situation of interdependence . By the late 1980s, South Africa's strategic significance had changed considerably, partly as a result of reform in the RSA's internal policies. With the passing of the Cold War changes were inevitable, an example being the delivery of Russian strategic minerals to the West by suitable sea routes that were once again safe for such transportation. South Africa's strategic significance continued to be concentrated on the nation's importance to Southern African states in a regional context. Most of these states are landlocked and had little option as regards trade with their powerful regional neighbour. South Africa's strong infrastructure facilitated the transportation of vital economic and industrial goods, and trade arrangements continued in spite of continuous criticism as regards the RSA's internal policies. The commencement of the so-called sanctions era thus witnessed a distinct reluctance on the part of South Africa's neighbours to apply punitive sanctions. This is not to imply that South Africa's racist policies were not vehemently criticised at every available opportunity. Much of the international community eventually obliged with various sanctions, albeit to varying degrees. Although financial damage did result from the sanctions campaign, trade continued, albeit in a clandestine fashion. The arms embargo itself did little other than to result in a strong local military manufacturing capability and generally served as a substitute for more severe economic sanctions. World leaders, especially the UK and the US, in fact resisted sanctions for many years as a result of their perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance. Combined with the RSA's ability to counter international attempts at isolation, the result was a relatively ineffective sanctions campaign. Yet it is clear that although South Africa did hold a certain degree of strategic significance, it was the government who reduced this value with their domestic policies or at the minimum, had a negative impact on the level of strategic significance. A government can thus diminish the value of the state. The primary aim of this chapter and the preceding chapter was to establish ego and alter perceptions regarding South Africa's strategic significance during the period under discussion. Ultimately, there can be no denying that the RSA was considered to be strategically community. important by much of the international In many cases to the extent that although there was extensive international condemnation regarding South Africa's internal racial policies, in practical terms, little was done to isolate South Africa in an attempt to enforce change. When the South African Government eventually began to emphasise domestic change, the RSA then slowly moved from a position of pariah status to one of increasing international acceptance. In order to establish the depth of this acceptance and to further establish ego and alter perceptions in this regard, it is necessary to study these aspects in the years 1990 to 1993. This study will be conducted in the next chapter. I. Barratt, J, Eyes on the eighties: the intenJational political outlook for Southern Africa, South African Institute ofIntemational 3. Affairs, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, Oct 1979, pp. 2-4. 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Holland, M, lhe European Community and South Africa: European political co-operation under strain, Pinter Publishers, London, p. 21. 74. Barber, J, "The EEC Code for South Africa: capitalism as a foreign policy instrument", Today, Vol 36, January-December 76. World 1980, pp. 79-83. Holland, M, "Disinvestment, sanctions and the European Community's Code of Conduct in South Africa", African Affairs, Vol 88, 1989, pp. 532-533. 77. Coetzee, D, "The face ofEC policy", Work in Progress, No 60, August/September 1989, pp. 17-18. 79. Speck, S W, "Malawi and the Southern African complex", In: Potholm, C P and Dale, R(eds), Southern Africa in perspective: essays in regional politics, Free Press, New York, 1972, pp.216-217. 81. Boyce, A N, "South Africa's external relations after 1948", In: Breitenbach, J J(ed), South Africa in the modem world (1910-1970), Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, 1974, p.518. 83. 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Butts, K H and Thomas, P R, The geopolitics of Southern Africa: South Africa as a regional superpower, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1986, pp. 156-161. 127. Scott Thompson, Wand Silvers, B, "South Africa in Soviet strategy", In: Bissell, RE and Crocker, C A(eds), South Africa into the 1980s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1979, p. 141. 128. Legum, G, "The Soviet Union's encounter in Africa", In: Nation, R C and Kauppi, M V(eds), The Soviet Impact in Africa, D.C. Heath and Company, Lexington, 1984, p. 12. 129. Glagolev, I S, Soviet aggression in Southern Africa, Southern African Editorial Services, Sandton, Johannesburg, 131. 1980, pp. 1-11. Roothman, Sand Nel, P(eds), The Soviet Union and South Africa in the 1980s: continuity and change, South African Institute of International Affairs, Braamfontein, Johannesburg, August 1989, pp. ii-iii. 132. Macfarlane, N, "The Soviet Union and Southern Afiican security", In: Roothman, S ... [et aI], op cit, p. 4. 133. Nation, R C, "Soviet engagement in Afiica: motives, means and prospects", In: Nation R c... [ef aI], op cit, pp. 35-47. 134. Coker, C, "The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe: patterns of competition and collaboration in Southern Afiica", In: Nation R C ... [et aI], op cit, p. 74. 137. Nel, P, "Explaining Soviet policy towards South Afiica", Soviet Revue, Vol 5, No 3, May-June 1989, pp. 1-14. 138. Gorbachev, M, Perestroika: new thinkingfor our country and the world, Collins, London, 1987, p. 178. 140. Campbell, K, M, "The Soviet-South Afiican connection", Africa Report, Vol 31, No 2, MarchApril 1986, p. 72. 141. Korobonski, A and Fukuyama, F, The Soviet Union and the Third World: the last three decades, Cornell University Press, IthacaILondon, 144. 1987, pp. 244-245. Dugard, J, "Sanctions against South Afiica: an international law perspective", In: Orkin, M, op cit, p. 113. 147. Landgren, S, Embargo disimplemented: Press, New York, 1989, p. 21. South Africa's military industry, Oxford University -197166, Butts, K H. ..[et aI], op cit, pp. 146-151. CHAPTER 6: SOUTH AFRICA'S STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE IN TERMS OF EGO AND ALTER PERCEPTIONS IN THE 1990-1993 PERIOD Ego and alter perceptions regarding South Africa's strategic significance to the rest of the world up until the end of the 1980s have been discussed in preceding chapters. As this study takes the form of a comparative analysis, this chapter will focus on perceptions regarding the RSA's strategic significance in the second period under discussion, namely, from 1990 to 1993. Although there will be a brief evaluation of perceptions during the two periods at the end of this chapter, a more detailed comparative analysis will be presented in the next chapter. It has been established in previous chapters that both ego and alter perceptions, linked to national capability, form part of the overall concept of strategic significance. A nation formulates its perceptions in this regard in accordance with the capability at its disposal. In order for the state to have international importance, however, these perceptions require a response from the international community and this response will take the form of alter perceptions. When ego and alter perceptions regarding strategic significance are similar, practical measures, often in the form of relations, result. The extent of international relations can thus reflect perceptions of strategic importance, especially in cases where few official statements are available in this regard. The changes in the external environment as a result of the ending of the Cold War eventually had an impact on South Africa, with the end result being that Pretoria could no longer claim to be the target of communist forces; while the ANC began to lose support in Moscow for its armed struggle. I) As a result, the ANC underwent a remarkable transformation in its focus and direction. This was evident when a senior member of the ANC's International Department stated the following in 1993: "Our future relations with the international community will have to be based on economic and trade considerations rather than on ideological considerations". 2) After decades of international isolation, South Africa was relocated to a very different position. A shift in the global political and power balance, as well as radical internal political reforms, led the way for a normalisation of South Africa's international position. Much of South Africa's foreign policy during the Cold War era was largely determined by international reaction to the government's apartheid policies and foreign policy was thus primarily directed at influencing international opinion in this regard. 3) Dramatic changes in South Africa's internal policies began to surface after the inauguration of State President F.W. de Klerk, who committed himself to the negotiation ofa new constitution for South Africa. His aims included the establishment of a multi-party democracy with regular elections, the protection of minority rights, an entrenched bill of human rights, and a market-orientated economy.4) International reaction in this regard was immediate and positive. Although many countries continued to enforce sanctions against the RSA, on the insistence of the ANC, relations with South Africa thus continued to develop. There could, however, be no doubt that once the initial euphoria regarding South Africa's transformation had subsided, the road ahead would be fraught with challenges for the new post-apartheid society. South Africa's policies would now have to be diverted from an emphasis on security issues to those concerning wealth, welfare and the environment. There was also the additional importance of re-establishing certain international relations, not least of all so as to gain access to financial and other aid. The early 1990s witnessed successful moves in this direction, although the issue of marginalisation could not be ignored. The re-orientation of Western funding away from the Third World, in fact, left South Africa with several opportunities on the African continent. S) It can thus be anticipated that while alter perceptions regarding South Africa's importance would, inter alia, be reflected by the extent of the RSA's relations with the international community; ego perceptions would primarily emphasise South Africa's role on the African continent. The end of the Cold War also resulted in the predominance of economic concerns, and both ego and alter perceptions were thus likely to reflect the importance of international trade relations. In contrast to previous years, the focus would no longer be purely on South Africa's significance in the attempt to control Soviet expansionism and this is emphasised below. In Chapters 4 and 5 of this study, emphasis was placed on South Afiica's important position at the Southern tip of the African continent. It was this geo-strategic position which resulted in a vital role for the RSA as an anti-communist stalwart in the Third World. The threat of communism and Soviet encroachment had, however, diminished by the early 1990s and South Africa lost an element of strategic significance in the process. The global changes that occurred at the end of the Cold War thus forced the South African Government to emphasise aspects of strategic significance other than ideological orientation. Yet certain elements of strategic significance remained in the new era, such as South Africa's importance as a strategic minerals supplier, albeit amongst tougher international competition. It has been established that a state should adapt its roles in accordance with the changing environment and this chapter will present evidence of South Africa's attempts at such adaptability. As already noted, it is the elements of national capability which ultimately result in a perception of possible roles for a nation and these roles are discussed below. Several important issues to be addressed which could have provided the RSA with role opportunities include an acceptance that South Africa was undeniably linked to global politics; the growing importance of regionalism, especially as regards Southern Africa; an emphasis on South Africa's pivotal position in Africa; and the global extension of South Africa's bilateral and multilateral relations. There was also a movement towards issues of human concern and a sensitivity for global interdependence, including issues relating to the environment; arms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and resource management. 6) Ego perceptions were thus likely to emphasise South Africa's importance to the rest of the world as regards certain of these concepts. South Africa is endowed with vast mineral resources which resulted in a general unwillingness by such nations as the US to apply full economic sanctions against the RSA. In the post-Cold War years, with other markets for these minerals opening up around the globe, it was unavoidable that a certain degree of the RSA's strategic significance would be lost. Yet South Africa continued to hold a large percentage of the world's mineral resources, for example, 80 percent of global chromite ore, which is vital for the production of stainless steel. On the other hand, it was equally important for South Africa to become a producer of "added-value" platinum and gold products if the country was to retain relevance as a minerals supplierJ) Another issue of importance in the new era was that minerals could serve the additional purpose of wealth creation for the fulfilment of important socio-economic development in South Africa. 8) There is a difference between sensitivity and vulnerability as regards mineral dependency; with the former referring to a short-term dependency without any changes in policy. Vulnerability refers to the resultant situation after all efforts to evade dependency have failed. Strategic minerals are those vital for the continuation of industry, whose supply could be limited at some point.9) As already noted, the CAAA exempted ten such minerals from its sanctions efforts against South Africa, namely, natural industrial diamonds; chrysotile asbestos; cobalt; antimony; titanium; andalusite; manganese; vanadium; chrome and ferrochrome; as well as the platinum group meta/s.lO) This can be considered an important indication of the continuing role of South Africa as a supplier of these minerals, which were difficult to substitute or locate elsewhere in an economically-viable manner. Throughout much ofthe period under discussion in this chapter, emphasis was placed during South African Parliamentary sessions on the value of minerals for the economy. It was noted that the mining industry was "largely export-orientated" and that exports in this regard had increased and would continue to increase as the world reacted favourably to political change within South Africa. In fact, international interest in trade with South Africa had improved considerably. II) Gold continued to be the top earner offoreign exchange, along with the platinum-group metals, copper and diamonds, and the RSA remained one of the world's most important mineral producers, with mineral exports representing a little less than 50 percent oftota! exports. As sanctions against South Africa were removed and the global economy strengthened, it was anticipated that demand for the RSA's platinum group metals would increase.12) Sanctions against South African minerals had never really proved effective, although the gold price had been negatively effected by various factors during the early 1990s, which had led to a loss of employment for many mineworkers. market.l3) Yet even coal had managed to perform successfully on the competitive international South Africa's importance to the international community was indicated by the fact that the volume of coal exports had increased to an all-time high by 199314) Mention was, however, made of the weakened international economy which had a negative impact on the South African mining industry. Yet mineral sales were increasing, thus emphasising the continuing strategic significance of the RSA as a minerals supplier. IS) It was re-iterated that the country's mineral wealth had prevented major US sanctions and the perception was that South African minerals would continue to provide the RSA with international importance for many years to come.16) As noted above, however, competition by mineral suppliers began to increase and South Africa was forced to compete in areas where there had previously been little international competition. 17) It has been established that the concept of strategic significance is a dynamic one and this dynamic extends to the actual elements of national capability, in this case strategic minerals. In other words, substitutes for certain minerals could eventually be located, as could alternative markets. It was, however, anticipated that the South African mining industry would continue to provide both employment and foreign exchange. If this assumption proved to be incorrect and mines were forced to close as a result offalling prices and alternative minerals markets, the re-employment ofa large segment of the community would place an additional heavy burden on society. 18) Another aspect which can be noted is the basically undiscovered and undeveloped mineral resources of South Africa's neighbours and other African states. Southern Africa in particular, would require the development of a mineral resource base and the necessary infrastructure in this regard. South Africa could playa valuable role in this regard and would increase perceptions of strategic significance in this manner. 19) It was, in fact, emphasised that there was increasing co-operation in the mining industries of South Africa and her neighbours, and that the RSA would serve as a valuable source of finance for this industry in Africa. 20) It would, however, appear that although South Africa was still considered a vital minerals supplier, the impact of this particular resource on the RSA's strategic significance was not as extensive as it had been in the Cold War years. The importance of South Africa's geographical location, namely, as part of the African continent, has already been established. Although certain high-profile South African politicians had throughout the apartheid era attempted to focus on the importance of relations with Africa, the idea became more popular after the end of the Cold War as South Africa began to experience the threat of marginalisation along with the rest of the continent. This was evident in statements made during South African Parliamentary sessions, for example "We ...believe that the establishment of normal and constructive economic and diplomatic relations between South Africa and the other countries of Africa should be a priority objective of foreign policy ...the route back to becoming a full and accepted member of the world community is not through America, Europe or Asia"21) In his 1990 parliamentary address, State President de Klerk announced that the previous year was to be seen as the year ofthe demise of communism. The President noted these dramatic events as having a direct effect on the future of Africa, predominantly through a process of marginalisation.22) More importantly, he emphasised the importance of regional co-operation: "The countries of Southern Africa are faced with a particular challenge: Southern Africa now has a historical opportunity to set aside its conflicts and ideological differences and draw up a joint programme ofreconstruction ...The season of violence is over. The time for reconstruction and reconciliation has arrived,,23) The South African Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, L. Wessels, also emphasised that: "Africa is where we belong ...the people of Africa are our people ...their problems are our problems. We are part of both the challenges and the solutions of Africa". 24) This was considered a remarkable turnaround in relations and a return to earlier days when South Afiican leaders had emphasised the importance of an Afiican community. South Afiican Foreign Minister Botha urged a strengthening of relations between nations in the Southern African region when he noted the marginalisation taking place and the important influence that South Afiica could have in this regard: "Through trade, transport, investment, labour, migration, tourism and technology transfers they (the countries of South em Africa) can interact more closely and beneficially with the strongest and most diversified economy South of the Sahara, that of South Afiica". 25) This can be considered a "marketing effort" for the continuing strategic significance of the RSA, albeit with a different emphasis than during the Cold War years. According to the 1990 Foreign Affairs Deputy Director, Rusty Evans, proposals for a regional development programme for Southern Africa had been welcomed by the leaders of Mozambique, Angola, Zaire, and Zambia. 26) Yet there was a certain amount of skepticism as regards the high expectations held by African countries for the fledging democracy of South Africa. It was noted that the RSA's role in Afiica would be influenced by such factors as the extent oflocal problems, as well as the enormity of Afiica's development crisis. South Africa's own development and economic concerns would absorb most, if not all, available funding in the short-to-medium term. This was not to deny the important role that the RSA could play on the continent, particularly as regards technical expertise and by keeping Afiican development issues on the agendas of international forums.27) Emphasis was placed on Afiica's challenges and prospects, where South Afiica could reap valuable benefits in the future if the RSA's economy improved and in turn strengthened the economies of surrounding states?8) South Africa's ultimate role in the global community would, however, depend on both local and international developments in the years to come, as most countries were adopting The State President shared the following as regards the RSA's role on the African continent: "South Africa is part of Africa. Her people of all colours, cultures and creeds belong to Africa - as much as the citizens of any other country on our continent. Logically, therefore, close co-operation between South Africa, her neighbouring states and even countries further afield in Africa would be in the best interests of everybody". 29) By 1992, the effects of marginal isat ion were noted during South African Parliamentary sessions. In spite of Africa's extensive natural resources, the continent had a poor economic record, partly as a result of a lack of technological and management skill, as well as a dependence on foreign debt. These problems would need to be addressed as not even South Africa would survive a collapse of the total regional economy.30) It would thus appear that the South African Government had come to the realisation that survival in a marginalised section of the globe was relatively dependent on national capability and ultimately, influence. Africa had demonstrated the apparent inability to function effectively on a state-to-state basis and the individual nations of this vast continent would \'herefore have to group together to ensure survival and growth. South Africa would play an important role as a stabilising force and development would ultimately result.3\) It was, however, noted that development would take place by means of "joint projects based on the principle ofpartnership ...we are not a donor country and must therefore, together with fellow African countries, tackle the problem of marginalisation as a common problem which will require a joint strategy". 32) South Africa's ambassador to the EC in the early 1990s, B. G. Ranchod, emphasised the importance of South Africa for the EC and other countries as a powerful ally in the struggle to rebuild the African continent.33) The State President also mentioned what he believed to be a changed thinking about South Africa and the complexity of the country's internal problems. Nothing could be allowed to disturb the stability of South Africa, as any instability could spread to the rest of the continent.34) Earlier in the year, attention had been called to the fact that although links with Europe were important, South Africa was not merely an extension of Europe on the Afiican continent: "We are an African country ... A new South Africa will to able to make the Southern African region one of the success stories of the world".3~) Attention was thus to be focused on the Southern Afiican region and the issues that would need to be addressed, such as the debt crisis and marginalisation. In 1993, the South African Director-General ofF oreign Affairs, stressed the importance of the RSA' s moral obligation to the Southern African region. It was already anticipated that South Africa would be expected to play a dominant role in the regional context, especially as regards general economic and financial considerations; security considerations; migration and refugee problems; human rights; socio-economic development; information technology; education; and job creation. policy was supported by the two complementary At the time, South Africa's foreign pillars of an internationally-acceptable accommodation, and the revitalisation of the South African economy.36) political The continuing marginalisation of the Third World emphasised the requirement for these nations to group together in a regional context in order to promote economic development and prosperity. The formation of regional economic blocs would lead to an improved ability to compete on international markets. South Africa's internal policies had prevented regional co-operation in previolJs decades, but the time had come for growing realism amongst African leaders and government initiatives to lead the way forward towards progressive relations. President de Klerk expressed a desire for South Africa to join a Southern African economic community, where the RSA could playa variety of constructive roles, especially in fields such as business skills, health services and communications. He was, however, aware of the fact that such an economic association would not be possible without financial assistance from the wealthier, industrialised nations. Nonetheless, De Klerk urged the other nations of Southern Africa to join together with South Africa in such a mutually-beneficial project. South Africa was prepared to encourage growth and development in Southern Africa, although the President emphasised that aspects such as migration should be strictly controlled.37) It was thus obvious, even at that early stage of co-operation, that masses of unemployed people could stream into South Africa in an attempt to find work and escape conditions in their own countries. According to De Klerk, South Afiica's international standing was as the economic, industrial and technical engine of Southern Africa and this was not to be ignored in light of the RSA's vast resources and industrial/commercial economic base. The President placed great emphasis on South Africa's impressive infrastructure, especially as regards roads, railways, electricity, harbours, and telecommunications. Many of these facilities were already in use in parts of the African continent and it was hoped that these same countries would make some of their own resources and products available to South Africa. This was evident from the following: "If the countries of Southern Africa, in particular, were to co-operate closely and pool their resources, the region would have every potential of becoming a significant economic bloc in the world. Not only would this be to the advantage of all the people of the region, but would rebound to the benefit of the entire continent". 38) President De Klerk and Foreign Minister Botha, began to market the idea that if Africa was to survive in the new era, the continent should be divided into regional economic power blocs modelled on the European Community. The most powerful economy in each bloc would act as an "engine of development" for the region. Regional self-interest would thus be the primary emphasis, although there would be efforts to coordinate the entire continent's economic growth. South Africa would act as the "locomotive" for economic development in Southern Africa; while this role would fall to Kenya in East Africa, Nigeria in West Africa, and Egypt in North Africa. The idea behind this concept was that Africa as a continent was too large and diverse an area for economic transformation.39) Minister Botha emphasised the opportunities for the Southern African region if it served as a single unit: "We shall simply be part ofa natural group which can bargain with Europe and other blocs. If we succeed, then in 15 to 20 years we will be able to help the rest of Africa. All we need is a big brother like Western Europe to help us develop and to encourage countries in our area to maintain fundamental rights and democracy".40) The South African Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasised the difference between the African continent as a whole and Africa South of the Sahara. The latter had been unable to organise itself into a true regional grouping, as was evident by the fact that although the countries of Southern Africa traded with the RSA, they did not trade amongst themselves as there were no common market areas. South Africa could be the catalyst for this type of development. Wessels referred to a possible partnership betwr;en Europe, South and Southern Africa, with the RSA being the key to international trade in the region. With international aid and South African expertise, an economic revival was indeed a possibility. It was vital for Africa to perform well both politically and economically if the continent wanted to retain international interest, particularly considering the continent's dismal record in the past. According to Wessels, South Africa's most important long-term aim was the mobilisation of Southern Africa so that the region could attain important common political and trade goals on the regional level. 41) The South African Government thus realised at an early stage that ifit wanted to retain international interest in South Africa, new elements of strategic significance would have to be emphasised. With the rest of the world turning away from Africa as regards aid and other assistance, South Africa could re-establish herself as a key international player, with a particularly important role on the continent. There could be no denying the ties between the RSA and her neighbours in the early 1990s, even after the years of international sanctions and isolation. It has been noted that many African countries openly criticised South Africa, while secretly continuing to trade with the apartheid state. Trade figures thus continued to increase at the beginning of the new decade, an example being trade with East Africa which increased by 26 percent in 1990 over the previous year's figures. Trade with North, West and Central Africa also increased. Yet it was noted that unless Africa had foreign exchange, this kind of trade would not be able to continue. It was thus in South Africa's interest to boost the continent as a whole. It was anticipated that the situation would improve if South Africa could act as a channel for the utilisation of international funds, which had been logistically limited in the past. Southern Africa, however, remained the focus for South Africa, as epitomised by South Africa's Deputy Director-General of Foreign Affairs: "It is essential for the survival of the region that we share resources and present the world with a large, dynamic and stable market. This would undoubtablyattract investment from abroad, without which Southern Africa cannot survive". 42) South Africa could thus not afford to become marginalised or for that matter, marginalisation allow extensive on the continent, as international aid was required if the plans of the South African Government (for the RSA to become actively involved in rejuvenating the African economy and continent in general) were to come to fruition. The South African State President stressed that the end of the Cold War had left a world in which human development and economic performance were of the utmost importance. It was now vital that the nations of Africa stand together in order to survive the competitive climate that had resulted from the emergence of regional economic power "blocs", such as the Pacific Rim and the European Community. Conflict should thus be set aside and a process of regional organisation be initiated. This would motivate the developed world to end African marginalisation and the continent would become a valued global player.431 It was clear that any future relationship between the RSA and the rest of Africa would be dictated by both global events and socio-economic concerns in South Africa and the African continent. The South African Government, like much of the developed world, would come under increasing pressure to address local problems such as unemployment and poverty before seeking to address concerns outside the RSA' s borders. Yet a great deal of co-operation between South Africa and her neighbours had blossomed in the years following the end of the Cold War and the country's remarkable political transformation. Trade was taking place with 48 Mrican countries by the early 1990s, and relations between South Africa and parts of the continent had reached ambassadorial and diplomatic level. It was anticipated that South Africa's primary potential as regards the region would be to attract potential investors. The RSA' s well-developed financial infrastructure would also be utilised for the mobilisation of capital for economic development. This would allow the international community to contribute to the development of the region, except that there would now be a solid framework in place for such assistance. 44) As regards security, Defence Minister Malan referred to the dramatic shift in Soviet foreign policy towards Southern Africa. It had become apparent that the external powers were moving towards a strategy of disengagement as regards the continent. demanded new initiatives. The new era of co-operation indicated new circumstances and The South African Government thus decided to commit itself to growth programmes in the political, economic and social sectors, although Malan stressed the continuing importance of security. 45) He did, however, note the value of human development and emphasised that the SADF did not have a threatening stance against its neighbours. In fact, states with internal security problems, such as Angola, should resolve such problems themselves. Yet the SADF was prepared to assist the Frontline states as regards training and facilities. 46) Minister Malan warned of several problems in the new era, including excessive population growth and the lack of economic growth throughout most of Africa. There was the fear that the perception of Africa as a poor and disease-ridden continent would affect South Africa. Although an attack on South Africa by forces outside of Africa or a combined regional force from inside Africa was not expected, the realities of the continent could easily deteriorate into unrest and ultimately, armed violence. It was thus predicted that the Africa of the nineties would be characterised by internal military and semi-military conflict, which could spill over boundaries. This would result in a surge of refugees across national borders and an aggravation of unrest. H) Although regional co-operation and economic development remained the ideal in the early 1990s, the realities of possible collapse and violence could therefore neither be ignored nor forgotten. It was thus in South Africa's own interest to take a pro-active and constructive role on the continent. The general perception in the post-apartheid, post-Cold War era, was that South Africa would continue as a regional economic power, playing a dominant role in many aspects. There was, however, the added perception that the power would be a "gentle one" and would assist in the maintenance of order, as well as the dispensing of aid across particularly the Southern African region. It was anticipated that the RSA would ultimately join the SADCC and the DAU and playa valuable role in the region.48) South African dominance in the region was, however, a concern, although the ANC had pledged that the New South Africa would not become a military or economic threat to neighbouring states. 49) ANC foreign affairs spokesman, Thabo Mebeki, had stated in 1991 that a "free" South Africa would eventually join the DAU, the Non-Aligned Movement and the UN, and emphasised the RSA's strategic significance as regards the country's position on the continent: "As part of the African continent, South Africa would also actively promote the objectives of democracy, peace, stability, development, and mutually beneficial co-operation among the people of Africa". SO) State President de Klerk noted the various trends in the international political realm in late 1991 and stressed the significant changes taking place regarding disarmament. There was also an increasing movement towards both regional and global multilateral co-operation, and the President predicted that South Africa would eventually become a constructive member of various African organisations and regional groupings. President de Klerk also emphasised the need to participate in international organisations such as the IMF and the UN. The relaxing ofinternational sanctions would have the effect of opening South African markets to worldwide competition and trade; while aid from the IMF would promote a successful economy. The State President emphasised the importance of environmental management and nature conservation, and expressed the intention of South Africa to submit a report in this regard to the UN Conference on Environment and Development, which would be held the following year. Closer international co-operation regarding such aspects as crime prevention, agriculture and drug abuse would be in South Africa's interest. The RSA was thus attempting to create the perception of being a responsible member of the 51) international community by focussing on current issues of global concern. Parliamentary consideration was given in 1993 to the future role that South Africa might be called on to play in both regional and international forums and it was anticipated that in view of South Africa's position as a major economic power on the African continent, the RSA would be called upon to playa leading role in this regard. It was also mentioned that increasing multilateralism and regionalism had resulted in the fact that no state could take unilateral action without international response. 52) South Africa would in turn, however, have to adopt policy positions on important global issues. 53) Ultimately, of all the potential and actual roles carved out by South Africa in the post-Cold War era, the one of regional superpower and ally was considered the most important. This is partly evident in the numerous references made in this regard by various South African politicians and others, and by the actual relations between the RSA and her neighbours that followed. If South Africa had an important role to play in previous decades as an anti-communist ally, this role had now taken on new meaning. There was a growing gap between Africa and the rest of the modem world that the RSA was prepared and willing to fill. Ego perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance thus continued in the post-Cold War period, but with a different emphasis, namely the RSA's importance for the Southern African region. Ego perceptions of strategic significance in the era under discussion in this chapter also emphasised South Africa's importance as an economic partner for much of the international community. As the South African economy was relatively dependent on foreign trade and was likely to remain so in the near future, it was vital that South Africa not only retain the interest of the international community, but also remain competitive in export markets. 54) As was the case with all South Africa's prospective and existing relationships, the catalyst for further international co-operation and assistance would depend on the establishment of a stable democracy and the elimination of the apartheid system. Developments were, however, "encouraging", opening in Africa, Asia and Europe. with new markets South Africa would in turn face the challenge of transforming the manufacturing sector, as the world was increasingly focusing on fewer raw materials and more manufactured goods and services. 55) De Klerk later noted that the process of reform in South Africa had resulted in increasing foreign investment and loans, as well as a boost in tourism. This would have positive repercussions for the country's economy. He stressed that South Africa was experiencing the positive and immediate fruits of reform, such as a return to international sport; the normalisation of international relations throughout the world; growing exports; and new doors that had opened for the RSA in the scientific, academic, artistic and cultural fields. 56) Various preferential trade agreements were concluded in the early 1990s and a representative of the South African Foreign Trade Organisation (SAFTO) was optimistic that two-way trade with most Eastern European countries would reach in excess of$50 million annually. Major deals which can be noted at this point include Telkom' s sale of public phones to Budapest in 1991, as well as similar arrangements with Czechoslovakia and Romania a few years later. South African Breweries even purchased an 80 percent share ofa Hungarian brewery. 57) According to South Africa's ambassador to Moscow in 1992, Dr Gerrit Olivier, even the Russians were eager to purchase South African products. 58) • There was a similar focus on trade with Asia and an indication of the rapid transformation in South Afiican international relations in the early 1990s was, in fact, reflected by the rapid increase in ties with these countries. By 1990, Pretoria had missions in Taipei, Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia and the number of missions increased substantially over the next few years. Trade increased as a result.59) Four countries led trade exports to South Africa during the period under discussion, with German exports heading the list. Switzerland imported the most South African goods and it can also be noted that trade with Zimbabwe (one of the RSA's fiercest critics during the apartheid years) was also taking place. In fact, as regards both imports and exports, Zimbabwe was South Africa's greatest trading partner in Afiica. Trade with Africa in general in the early 1990s was an untapped market for the RSA60) This market would obviously have to be further developed if South Africa was to retain perceptions of strategic significance as a valuable trading partner for the African continent. As regards international markets, the continuing improvement of trade relations between South Africa and much of the globe, can be considered evidence of continuing perceptions of strategic significance. A normalisation of South Africa's trade relations was thus taking place and this was emphasised during 1993 South African Parliamentary sessions. As noted above, this normalisation even applied to countries in parts of Europe where there had been no real tradition of trade in the past. Trade relations with countries in the Far East and Africa had also improved and economic representation in these countries was increasing61) It was anticipated that offices would be opened in countries with which the RSA traded before the sanctions era, such as Sweden and Australia. Much work had also been completed in an attempt to eventually normalise trade relations with countries such as India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia; while exports to Africa increased from R4 billion in 1990 to approximately R6 billion in 1992. These exports consisted primarily of manufactured products and although the goods were exported mainly to countries in Southern Africa, progress had been made as regards export markets in countries such as Kenya and Angola.62) Successes as regards outward trade missions were also attained during three missions to Western Europe, the US and Kenya, which were undertaken in the early 1990s.63) It has been noted that relations with the international community can be considered to reflect a degree of strategic significance. The South African Government thus emphasised the normalisation of relations that was taking place between the RSA and much of the globe in the post-Cold War era. In mid-1990, President de Klerk addressed the South African Parliament as regards this aspect and expressed confidence that substantial progress had been made, especially in light ofa recent trip to Europe. It had become apparent to many that South Africa could not continue to live in isolation from the rest of the world. Participation in the international community would result in economic and cultural benefits for all South Africans: "We cannot stop the world and get off, as some people in South Africa would like us to do; neither can we turn the clock back and take refuge in the past ...Whether we like it or not, we must also wrestle with the international realities of the present and secure for our country its rightful place in the community of nations. This the Government will continue to bring about"M) The South African Government was thus placing an emphasis on the importance of international relations; something which had been underscored during the apartheid years. International relations continued to be emphasised in 1992, with the previous year perceived as one in which both Central Europe and Africa welcomed South Africa back into the "fold". In his Parliamentary address, De Klerk expressed the wish that these positive relations continue to be strengthened.6S) In general, the Middle East and North African countries were eager to establish relations with the New South Mrica and examples of countries with at least some form of diplomatic relations in the early 1990s include Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan. Bahrain. and Tunisia.66) Relations with New Zealand and Australia also improved and it was hoped that friendly relations would spread to such East Asian countries as India and Pakistan.67) As regards Latin America during the early 1990s, numerous states in this section of the globe established at least some form of diplomatic relations with South Africa, including Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. F.W. de Klerk undertook an official tour of Latin America in 1993, where issues such as bilateral trade and investment were discussed.68) The general perception was one of re-acceptance by the international community and South Mrican Parliamentary sessions were dominated by the expansion of international relations. Global relations were themselves undergoing a metamorphosis and the world was changing from a bipolar to a multipolar structure, based more on economic needs than ideological and military strength. The internal political changes that had taken place since February 1990, had resulted in the RSA being welcomed back as a respected member of the international community and it was obvious that South Africa was no longer considered an international pariah: "Changing political realities, the recent drought and a growing awareness of the value of regional harmony are helping to foster an environment that is more conducive to co-operative relationships" .69) Emphasis was also placed on the number of international agreements undertaken by South Africa: "Over the past three years we have opened diplomatic and trade missions in Africa, in Central and Eastern Europe and in Asia. We are now represented in 79 countries of the world. We have signed a record number of international agreements ...We are participating in international sporting events. We have access to cultural events" 70) "We have expanded our relations, we have normalised them, we have opened up a host of new missions, both embassies and consulates-general. We are in the process of norma Iising our relations with the important countries of the Far East and lately, of course, we have been concentrating on Africa and the Middle East".7I) The South African Government eventually began to welcome direct foreign engagement as regards the desire for a peaceful settlement. The result of this change in attitude was the arrival of observers from the UN, the DAD, the Commonwealth, the EC, and other interested groups. Although many countries considered it a "moral obligation" to assist in the development of a democratic order in the RSA, on a more pragmatic level, the motivation was also likely to be sound economic relations in the futuren> Considering that the previous chapter emphasised the RSA's military isolation, it is pertinent to discuss ego perceptions regarding the importance of participation in international arms control measures; particularly as South Africa had been considered a threat to world peace in previous years. The "New World Order" demonstrated developments. an increasing emphasis on the importance of multilateral Eager to be a part of this interdependent world, South Africa intended to participate in multilateral affairs and thus assume a role as a responsible player in the international community. The early 1990s witnessed a resurgence in the emphasis on arms control and this was particularly relevant for such areas as the Third World, which had suffered a proliferation of weapons during decades of violence, insurrection and warfare. The South African Minister of Foreign Affairs, R.F. Botha, stated in March 1991 that the South African Government supported the idea of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Southern African region and indeed, across the entire African continent. A safeguards agreement would also be concluded with the IAEA as regards South Africa's nuclear facilities. This was considered an attempt to demonstrate the Government's commitment to non-proliferation objectives and responsibilities. 73) Such moves would emphasise the importance of the RSA as a peaceful, stabilising ally in a historically unstable region. Although there was some concern as regards the South African Government's intention to later violate the treaty, a former IAEA official stated that: "There is no point to joining a treaty to create confidence that you are being responsible and then to do something which, if detected, destroys that confidenc~". 74)South Africa officially acceded to the NPT on 10 July 1991 and two months later, concluded a comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA. 75) In August 1991, the following appeared in the South African Government Gazette, under the heading Armaments Development. Production, Import, Transit, Export and Marketing Control: "With effect from the date of publication of this notice no nuclear weapons and nuclear explosive devices or spare parts which can be used for nuclear weapons and nuclear explosive devices as purported in Article II of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons shall be developed or manufactured in the Republic or transported through the Republic from any place outside the Republic to any such other place or exported from the Republic or marketed inside or out~ide the Republic, and no attempt shall be made to develop or manufacture such goods inside the Republic or to transport such goods through the Republic or to export such goods or to market such goods inside or outside the Republic" 76)The publication of this notice can be perceived as a definite attempt by the South African Government to improve its standing in the international community. Ultimately, it was to the benefit of the entire country that normal international relations be resumed as soon as possible and perceptions regarding South Africa's nuclear threat played a vital role in this regard. President De Klerk stated the following: "In years to come, South Africa will be an important international factor. That is our destiny".77) De Klerk noted that disarmament had become an important trend of international politics, especially as regards the Cold War threat of nuclear conflict78) By 1992, South Africa had a Permanent Representative at the United Nations, R. Eksteen, who also confirmed the wish of South Africa to finalise a convention that would eliminate chemical weapons. He stressed the importance of a nuclear weapons-free zone in Southern Africa. The very presence of South Africa at the Conference was, in fact, an indication of South Africa's intention to fulfil important international obligations. 79) Eksteen stated that: "For its part, South Africa is ready to accept its international obligations ...As a direct result of the initiatives of President De Klerk to pursue a peaceful, negotiated political settlement in South Africa, we have been part of the international trend in greatly reducing our military expenditure. That is a sign of my Government's desire for peace and good neighbourliness in our region and in the global context ...We want to demonstrate our willingness to be a responsible and active member of the international community". 80) Ego perceptions of strategic significance in this regard revolved around the belief that South Africa's importance to the international community would be increased by the RSA's participation in arms control measures. President De Klerk announced in March 1993, that South Africa had indeed produced six nuclear weapons, although the programme had ended before the RSA signed the NPT in 1991. The weapons were dismantled and a seventh weapon was apparently never completed. De Klerk denied that South Africa conducted a secret nuclear test and also insisted that the RSA did not acquire nuclear weapons technology from any There were concerns about the highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile that would have remained, but the assurance was given by the ABC that the HEU would not be sold during the transitional period. ANC President, Nelson Mandela, had also indicated that South Mrica must never again allow her resources and scientists to produce weapons of mass destruction. Both President de KIerk and the ANC thus favoured the establishment ofan African nuclear weapons-free zone. Non-proliferation legislation was also enacted in 1993, which prohibited South African citizens from assisting in any programme involving the construction of nuclear weapons. 82) In summary, by 1993, South Africa was a signatory to the following treaties and protocols as regards arms control: the Chemical Weapons Convention (as well as the Geneva Protocol); the Biological Warfare Convention; the Antarctic Treaty; the Partial Test Ban Treaty; the Seabed Treaty; the Outer Space Treaty; as well the Non-Proliferation Treaty.83) Although not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime, South Africa adhered to MTCR export control guidelines.84) All of these actions provide an indication of South Africa's desire to be perceived as a responsible member of the international community. As such, the RSA would be more difficult to ignore. In addition to these factors, South Africa had also added another factor to her strategic significance by formulating a role as a facilitator for a future nuclear weapons-free zone in Africa, something that the rest of the developed world was interested in seeing accomplished. South Africa's ego perceptions of strategic significance in the 1990-1993 period were thus centred around the country's importance as a stabilising force in Africa and particularly the Southern African region, where South Africa could serve as an "engine of development". Additional emphasis was, however, also placed on the value of the RSA's strategic minerals and the country's importance as a trading partner to the rest of the international community. With the continuing normalisation of relations between South Africa and the world, the South African Government also wanted to be perceived as a responsible ally and thus undertook certain arms control measures. Attention is now focused on alter perceptions of strategic significance in order to evaluate any differences between ego and alter perceptions regarding South Africa's importance to the international community. Alter perceptions of significance and the actual relations which follow, constitute the third element of strategic significance covered in this study. The end of the post.Cold War era coincided with the gradual ending of the international sanctions campaign against South Africa and the country's re-emergence as a global player. It has been noted that throughout the apartheid era, many states continued to trade with the RSA and maintain bi-Iateral relations, thus boosting both ego and alter perceptions of strategic significance. The fact that much of this trade took place in an illicit fashion drew attention to the fact that although nations were taking a stand against apartheid on the political front, the practical significance of South Africa resulted in a different behaviour. In the period under discussion in this chapter, the international community was eager to formally re-establish relations with South Africa, especially considering that the opening of Eastern Europe had resulted in increasing international competition for markets. Many states did not even wait for the formal lifting of sanctions, even though regional and other organisations were insisting that the sanctions campaign continue The result can be described as a relative normalisation of international relations for the RSA. It can, however, be noted that many states, especially the larger, more powerful ones such as the US, were carefully observing the international political environment in South Africa before investing large amounts. South Africa was thus motivated to continue the transformation process and maintain favourable economic conditions, as foreign assistance would be required to fulfil several of the roles that the South African Government had highlighted. According to Evans, the actual pace of the normalisation of South Africa's international relations was, in fact, determined by the perception of the international community that the process of change was in motion and that this process was irreversible. It was clear that the RSA' s place in the "New World Order" would depend as much on domestic developments as on the course of events in the rest of the world.8S) As the international sanctions campaign can be considered to reflect alter perceptions of strategic significance, it is important to note its conclusion and the statements made by the international community in this regard. By early 1990, US President, George Bush, began to lean towards a distinctly negative stance as regards the effectiveness of sanctions. This is evident in the following statement: "Well, I don't know that one can attribute all the change in South Africa to sanctions ...Frankly, I think some are counterproductive. I happen to think American jobs there make good sense". 86) The EC, however, remained determined to maintain sanctions due to the emergency situation in the RSA; even though Margaret Thatcher was equally determined to "go it alone" and unilaterally lift at least some sanctions so as to demonstrate the benefit of De Klerk's reforms and prevent a conservative backlash in South Africa.87) The EC thus voted to support sanctions until apartheid was "irrevocably abolished" and an "agreement to install a new constitutional order" was reached.88) Yet in possible recognition of the RSA's strategic significance, the EC noted that the new South Africa should have access to extensive economic resources and assistance. 89) It had, however, become apparent by late 1990, that the EC was seeking ways in which it could ease the restrictions which had been placed on South Africa and at the Rome summit, it was decided to lift the ban on new investments in the RSA. Although the ANC was dismayed at such an early move, the EC defended its action by stating that it wished to "contribute to the speeding up of the process under way through sending to all parties involved in negotiation a concrete sign of support for the establishment of a new South Africa, united, non-racial, and democratic and capable of resuming the place which it deserves in the international community" 90) There was thus recognition of the role that the RSA could playas part of the international system of states. When President De KIerk announced the repeal of all remaining apartheid legislation in early 1991, the international response was swift and favourable. Although the EC acknowledged that sanctions could now be eased, this would not be done until "legislative action was taken" in South Africa. In the US, a State Department spokesman referred to De KIerk's "courageous statesmanship", but also called for the release of all political prisoners before sanctions could be lifted. The ANC, however, threatened "mass actions" should sanctions be lifted.9ll Yet oil companies across the globe eagerly awaited South Africa's "official" return to the oil businessnl It has been noted that the oil embargo had not been effectively implemented during the sanctions era, thus increasing perceptions of strategic significance in spite of continuing political differences. Following a visit to Kenya by De KIerk (where regional trade was stressed), General Ibrahim Babangida, President of Nigeria and Chairman of the OAU, applauded De KIerk's efforts to dismantle apartheid and ZaIre began to establish diplomatic relations with South Africa. As a further "coup" for international relations, South African Airways was once again given overflight rights with Morocco, Mauritania, Mali, and Cote d'Ivoire. This had been denied for almost three decades93l Even the Commonwealth began to head towards a phased relaxation of economic sanctions if Pretoria continued with the reform process and met certain conditions, such as the release of all political prisoners.94) President Bush lifted the Anti-Apartheid Act (CAAA) on 10 July 1991. The US also became the first country to lift the oil embargo; while Israel lifted its own ban on "the sale and transfer to South Africa of oil and its products" a few days later.~) Japan had earlier noted that other sanctions against South Africa would be maintained as long as America continued a sanctions campaign.96) It was thus anticipated that other countries would follow the US lead in this regard. President Bush made the following statement when he lifted the CAAA: "During the past two years we've seen a profound transformation in the situation in South Africa - I really firmly believe that this progress is irreversible".97) The US would at the same time increase aid to Black South Africans. The ANC, however, disputed the move on the grounds that the conditions stipulated in the CAAA had not been completely met. The month of July, in fact, witnessed numerous favourable international moves to lift pressures on South Africa. Finland resumed commercial relations with the RSA, as did Israel, although the ban on military contracts continued. The Soviet Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed an agreement on mining co-operation with the South Mrican Chamber of Mines; and Japan was considering the lifting of economic sanctions. Argentina was to resume relations with the RSA by the end of 1991; while Czechoslovakia and Hungary agreed to establish embassy-level diplomatic ties with South Africa. Poland was likely to undertake similar moves. South Africa was also allowed to re-enter the international sporting arena with an invitation to participate in the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. 98) Even Denmark, one of apartheid's fiercest critics, was poised to lift a veto in 1992 on imports into the EC of South African gold coins, iron and steel. 99) Following the passing of a bill in the South Mrican Parliament in September 1993, which established the TEC, ANC President, Nelson Mandela, called for the lifting of all economic sanctions against the RSA. The TEC was a multiracial body which would work in conjunction with the South African Government in the run-up to the country's first democratic elections, scheduled for April 1994. Mandela also urged the international community to assist in the "regeneration" of the South African economy. The arms embargo was, however, to remain until after the 1994 elections. The international response was again positive, with the US lifting remaining sanctions and President Clinton stating that the US would launch "initiatives to help restore economic growth", including supporting RSA access to the World Bank and the IMF. The US Secretary of Commerce would lead a trade and investment mission to South Africa, indicating the perceived importance of trade with the RSA. 100) Canada, Australia and New Zealand were also eager to lift sanctions against South Africa following Mandela' s announcement. The Commonwealth Secretary-General, 101) Emeka Anyaoku, responded to what was perceived as positive change in South Africa, by announcing that the Commonwealth would lift all remaining sanctions and even went so far as to express the hope that the RSA would eventually rejoin the Commonwealth. The OAU also announced the lifting of economic sanctions. Although the EC undertook what has been termed a "rolling programme" for the normalisation of relations with South Africa, no new trade accords would be signed until after democratic elections. China, India and Sweden all announced the resumption of relations and the lifting of restrictions. 102) The Arab League lifted sanctions against South Africa in 1993.103) There were also internal differences as regards the UN's treatment of South Mrica. This was evident by the fact that by late 1990, the US, Japan and the EC had implied that they would not support any resolution binding members to continued sanctions against the RSA.I04) It later became evident that the UN was proposing a more moderate stance against South Africa.IOS) The UN was concerned with the level of political violence in South Africa and called on the international community to observe the arms and oil embargoes. The General Assembly did, however, urge the resumption of academic, scientific, cultural and sporting links with certain bodies and individuals in South Africa. This call was primarily the result of what was perceived as progress in the removal of obstacles to multi-party negotiations. 106) Continuing political violence and delays in negotiations ultimately resulted in the deployment of UN observers in an attempt to assist the peace process. 107) As noted earlier in this study, the UN General Assembly President announced the lifting ofthe oil embargo against South Africa in December 1993. This can be considered a response to an earlier reminder by the South African Foreign Minister, Pik Botha, that the UN itself had set the establishment of the TEC as the condition for the lifting of the oil embargo. The TEC was set to commence in early December 1993. As already noted, these moves were a disappointment 108 ) to the ANC, as the organisation had urged the maintenance of the embargo until after democratic elections had taken place. The international community in general, was thus eager to lift sanctions against the RSA as a reward for moves towards the establishment of a democratic South Afiican Government and there were ample examples of international assistance as the country attempted to transform into a democratic society This can be perceived as an indication of continuing strategic significance. It would seem unlikely that the international community would be interested in restoring order in a country which was not considered to be of strategic importance. As noted in the first part of this chapter, the South Afiican Government wanted to be perceived as a responsible member of the international community and efforts were made to emphasise international relations. The perceived importance of relations with South Afiica will now be established, as such relations provide an indication of strategic significance. When communism collapsed, along with the Soviet Union, what was South Africa's and indeed much of the Third World's, primary strategic significance to the West? As noted, amongst other things, the strategic raw materials produced in these countries. There was also a change in other aspects of strategic importance in that although the Cold War years had necessitated a struggle to resist communist expansionism, the postCold War era in turn necessitated the preservation of global order so as to ensure access to economic and other resources. Statements made by various US defence officials in the early 1990s supported this theory and concentrated on such aspects as the fact that underdevelopment in Afiica promoted instability and posed "significant threats to US vital interests worldwide". According to a US Marine Corps Commandant, insurgencies had the "potential to jeopardise regional stability and our access to vital economic and military resources ...therefore, if the United States is to have stability in these regions, maintain our access to their resources, protect our citizens abroad, defend our vital installations, and deter conflict. ..we must maintain within our active force structure a credible military power projection capability with the flexibility to respond to conflict across the spectrum of violence throughout the globe". 109) In fact, the situation was considered important enough for the US to establish a Special Forces Group in the early 1990s for intervention in Africa, which along with Latin America and the Pacific Rim of Asia, was considered one of the "three most likely areas for low intensity conflict". This was despite the fact that the US, like many countries, was increasingly turning to domestic economic problems, as well as crises in other parts of the globe, such as Eastern Europe. 110) George Bush emphasised the importance of economic progress in Africa in a March 1990 statement: "But Africa's most fundamental challenge, I think, is on the economic development side: harnessing the continent's natural and human resources side to create better and richer lives for all the people there. Governments clearly have a role to play"lIl) This was an indication of the new attitude in the post-Cold War era, where the international community tended to step back from Africa (generally for financial reasons) and let internal problems be resolved by the government's concerned. According to Noffke, the US was intent on playing a role in South Africa because the perception was that the RSA was an important market, possessed valuable minerals, and was the country with the greatest growth potential in Africa. There was also the use of the waters around the Cape Sea Route for trade purposes and the continuing possibility that the nation which controlled South Africa, Mozambique, Angola, and Namibia would have an important impact on the use of these waters for the delivery of strategic provisions, such as oil, to the West. The West therefore had a particular interest in the stability of South Africa and this was closely linked to the RSA's strategic significance. South Africa was the only country in Africa with both a partial First World economy and a strong industrial sector.lI2) Yet according to the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in 1990: "We do not have any significant national security interests in South Africa. Our main concern is the development of a viable economy. We do not have any strategic interests in that part of the world ... Strategic minerals are important; they're also available from the Soviet Union. We cannot conceive of any government - future government in South Africa - which will not want to sell us those strategic minerals, regardless of their ideology". 113) The US could thus have been attempting to underplay the strategic significance of the RSA's strategic minerals, even though the events of previous years had emphasised the value that the US attached to access to this vital resource. Several studies have been completed on the actual value of South Africa's strategic minerals and one such study reported that there existed sufficient alternative world sources to the RSA for the provision of such minerals as manganese, chromium, palladium, titanium, and vanadium. Yet the cost for a country such as the US was considered a negative factor, in that an embargo of South Africa's strategic minerals would cost in excess of$9 billion over a five-year period. This particular study was primarily aimed at potential damage to the US automotive industry, where the platinum-group metals were utilised; GNP; and employment. It was discerned that many jobs would be lost and automobile production would decrease as a result of such an embargo.114) Thus although efforts were made to find alternatives for many South African mineral imports, by 1991, it did not appear as if any results in this regard had been implemented to the extent that, at least US dependence on the RSA's minerals, had diminished. Yet Africa remained a relatively low US priority and it was anticipated that the outcome of South Africa's attempts at reform would ultimately affect the way the US acted towards the continent as a whole. In other words, should South Africa successfully make the transition to a stable, prosperous democracy, US interests in Africa could increase. liS) Presidential hopeful, Bill Clinton, delivered a speech in late 1991which highlighted several aspects as regards future US security policy towards Africa. He stressed the importance of constant vigilance, even in a world free of communism, against threats in a newly unstable world which could ultimately develop into threats against essential US interests. Yet in line with an almost global period of "introspection", the future US President was also convinced that the US could no longer act unilaterally, but should instead "reach a new agreement with its allies for sharing the costs and risks of maintaining peace". This can be perceived as indicative of a future peacekeeping role for South African forces, thus minimising costs for the US and other international players. Clinton was more specific when he discussed the situation in South Africa, where he stressed the importance of irreversible transformation, as well as the need to maintain remaining sanctions until democracy was achieved. 116) In his annual report on the National Military Strategy of the United States, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell, stated in 1992 that: "The United States must maintain the strength necessary to influence world events, deter would-be aggressors, guarantee free access to global markets, and encourage continued democratic and economic progress in an atmosphere of enhanced stability ...the threats we expect to face are regional".II7) Like many nations in the international environment, the US was predominantly interested in expanding economic relations and supporting a democratic and stable regime in South Africa. The opinion of one writer in the early 1990s was that although it was generally accepted that a growing economy was a primary element in a democracy, the US was pursuing a contradictory policy as regards South Africa. In other words, the sanctions it was using to force the RSA into a democracy, were actually damaging the struggling economy and making the passage to democracy more difficult and less likely. As has been noted, US financial aid was, in fact, decreasing in light of changes in Eastern Europe where much aid was now being funnelled. The US was also decreasing international funding in general, partly as a result of increasing pressure to concentrate on domestic concerns. Yet the idea of encouraging the establishment of democracies across the world was perceived as fairly ingrained in US foreign policy. liS) The US was thus unlikely to completely lose interest in developments in South Africa and because of the factors mentioned above, the RSA would retain a certain degree of strategic significance. Ultimately, with Africa relatively low on the international list of priorities in the immediate post-Cold War era, the level of tension in other parts of the globe would determine the amount of US involvement in Africa. Domestic events within the United States would also affect the amount of time and money available for such involvement. Yet although the early 1990s witnessed what can be described as a general phase of "immobility" as regards US security policy towards Africa, the US retained certain political, military and economic interests on the African continent, which it would no doubt be forced to defend should they be threatened in any way. President Clinton reiterated as much in his inaugural address on 20 January 1993, when he referred to a free, but less stable world: "While America rebuilds at home, we will not shrink from the challenge, nor fail to seize the opportunities of the new world ...When our vital interests are challenged ...we will act - with peaceful diplomacy wherever possible, with force when necessary"119) There had been a distinct improvement commencement of the reform process. in relations between South Africa and the US since the This was most clearly demonstrated by the 30 precent growth in bilateral trade between 1990 and 1991, with the US becoming one of South Africa's largest trading partners. It can also be noted that although Clinton had stated that the US should maintain pressure on the RSA until there was anirreversible and full accommodation ofall citizens, the word he used was accommodation and not a new constitution. South Africa. 120) This could be indicative of the eagerness of the US to re-establish relations with Naturally, much would depend on the continuing reform process, as well as local US problems which could limit efforts directed at South Africa. The US perception was that South Africa had the potential to become a major economic power and successful democracy, and that what happened in the RSA would ultimately affect democracy and economic prosperity throughout the continent. Evidence of the strategic significance awarded the RSA can be found in the vast amounts of US aid distributed in South Africa in the early 1990s. The US was, in fact, the second largest donor of financial aid to South Africa after the EC.121) Yet according to an ex-US Department of State consultant, Americans were far too ego-centric to be extremely concerned with the rest of the world, including South Africa. It was thus doubtful that an excessive amount of US aid would be funnelled into the RSA. 122) The battle against marginalisation was evident when the Clinton Administration admitted in 1993 that as a result of US domestic budget concerns, South Africa would probably not receive more than the $80m in US aid it was receiving at that point. Political and moral support, however, would continue, provided the reform process was successful. It was also noted that certain economic conditions would need to be met prior to investment. 123) In other words, South Africa would be forced to increase her strategic significance by ensuring economic growth and stability. In late 1993, US Commerce Secretary, Ron Brown, referred to the "great potential" of the RSA economy and noted that American companies were now "exhilarated" by commercial prospects in South Africa. 124) Brown, indicated the eagerness of the US to become economically involved in South Africa: "Now is the time to ensure that the expansion of US business involvement in SA is one of this administration's highest priorities" .125)The US thus maintained a relative amount ofinterest in developments in the RSA, indicating continuing perceptions of strategic significance. The US Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, George E. Moose, also emphasised South Africa's strong economy and its importance as a base for international trade: "Its location makes it a natural springboard for business opportunities in the region and the continent. Few countries rival South Africa's mineral wealth". 126) It was noted that South Africa's stability could lead to regional economic integration and ultimately, economic growth. The RSA would thus serve as a catalyst for economic development in Southern African and this was considered important for US interests in the region. The US therefore supported a successful transition to democracy in South Africa.127) It is thus clear that US interests in South Africa in the period under discussion were primarily centred around economic concerns. Britain had throughout the apartheid years followed a policy of so-called "constructive engagement" (originally associated with the US) in relations with South Africa, with the premise that change should come from within the South African establishment. According to the British Foreign Minister, Douglas Hurd, Britain's position as regards South Africa was that ofa "sympathetic, friendly observer, who was prepared to listen if requested, and who from time to time might be able to use its good offices; but no more than that. We must be chary ...to sticking our noses into this kind of discussion uninvited".128) There can be no denying the continuing historical and cultural links between the two countries, which would, in fact, become reinforced with English likely to be the main official language in South Africa. There were, however, numerous issues of concern for Britain regarding relations with the RSA. The first was the possible movement of British nationals living in South Africa or those with rights to British passports, to Britain in light ofincreasing political tension and uncertainty in the RSA. To avoid a potential immigration problem, it was therefore in the interests of Britain to promote a peaceful South Africa and in so doing, encourage British passport holders to remain in the RSA. Another issue of concern was the maintenance of a stable Southern African region, where Britain had provided financial assistance as part of the programme of "constructive engagement". Stability and prosperity in South Africa would, in turn, ensure a similar situation in the region.129) This reflects the RSA's continuing importance for countries such as Britain that had strategic interests in the region. As was the case for many international countries attempting to re-establish ties with South Africa, one of the primary issues of concern was that of economic interest. Although certain British companies had reduced their investments during the sanctions era, it had not been on the same scale as that of other countries and in 1991, Britain remained one of the RSA's primary trading partners. Britain was eager to lift sanctions and Douglas Hurd had stated that if sanctions were to remain in place until after the achievement ofa one-person-one-vote system, the result would be a "dearth of investment, where people who are going to come in sharing that political inheritance would be coming into a South Africa which has been impoverished by international action". Thus by the early 1990s, Britain informed the Commonwealth that not only was it re-establishing trade missions with South Africa, but was also encouraging business people to visit the country. Concern was, however, expressed as regards political violence, South Africa's generally weakened economy, and politicised industrial relations. New investment would not be forthcoming unless this situation improved. South Afiica thus faced an enormous challenge in the attempt to improve the economy before it descended to Third World status.130) Considering the increasing marginalisation of the continent in general, South Africa would be hard-pressed to retain perceptions of strategic significance if these problems were not rectified. Britain's own economic experience in the past had also proved rather limiting, in that it was established that only "interests" and not "responsibilities" could be attended to. Yet although many countries were adopting a "wait and see" attitude as regards South Africa, Douglas Hurd noted in the early 1990s that his government intended to "push on", thus indicating a continuing active role in the RSA and continuing perceptions of strategic significance.l3l) As in the case of the US, alter perceptions of South Africa's importance were predominantly related to economic interests and the RSA's significance as a stabilising force in the Southern African region; although the importance of historical ties between the two countries could not be ignored. In Europe, the end of the Cold War period coupled with the remarkable internal change in South Afiica, led to the ultimate removal of sanctions against the RSA and the application of co-operative development and trade policies. This process was, however, stretched over a period from late 1990 to the establishment of the TEC in 1993. Britain had made a unilateral decision in early 1990, when it suspended its restriction on new investments in South Africa. In fact, the inclusion of South Africa as the first and only topic not inside the immediate geopolitical interests of the Union was one of the first five "joint actions" undertaken by the European Union. 132) At the time, Germany was one of South Africa's top trading partners, although trade with many countries had suffered a slight decline in previous years. Trade with the UK, however, increased and aUK/South Africa Trade Association (Uksata) mission to the RSA was undertaken in the early 1990s. The group reported on opportunities for further economic co-operation. 133)Yet the issue of marginalisation was reaffirmed in the early 1990s, when it became apparent that the EC was giving more aid per capita to Eastern Europe than to the Third World. There was also little need for the so-called "conscience money" which had been used in previous years to quieten critics of the West's South Africa policy. 134) It can, however, be noted at this point that although EC ministers were aware of the need for international supervision of the South African elections and indeed, of the entire security situation in the RSA, the precise role for the EC in this regard was not yet decided. Mention was made of the fact that a decision would only be made after a visit to South Africa by the Foreign Ministers of the UK, the Netherlands and Portugal.13S) The EC "troika", consisting of Douglas Hurd and his Danish and Portuguese counterparts, Mr Uffe Elleman-Jensen and Mr Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, did indeed pay a visit to South Africa in September 1992, where discussions primarily revolved around ways in which the EC could assist in curbing the violence in South Africa, as well as ways to restart constitutional negotiations. As a result, 15 EC observers were sent to the RSA. 136) The Italian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Ivo Butini, emphasised the importance of relations with South Africa in 1990, as evident by the visits of De Klerk and other cabinet ministers to Italy.137)Mr Durao Barroso stated that during Portugal's period as chair of the EC, South Africa would be a focal point for European interest. He emphasised that Southern Africa: "Should be regarded as an ensemble. The process of opening up which is taking place in South Africa should be supported. be one of the most important economic partners of the EC. The future Southern Africa will We think that we should show European support for these countries" .138)Again the emphasis is here on the importance of the RSA as an international trading partner. According to a senior French industry spokesman, French investors were also eager to commence new investment in South Africa, despite the government's ban on such investment. Mr Jean-Pierre Prouteau said that French investors perceived South Africa as a stimulus for economic revival on the continent: "What interests us most is the emergence ofa new South Africa, the prospect of peace and the role of the country in the development of the Southern Africa region and in the revival of the economies of sub-Saharan Afiica". He noted that many French firms had left Africa as a result of the continent's political and economic problems. If South Africa was to assist in the resolution of such problems, the country would need access to massive investment.139) The French thus attached considerable strategic significance to South Africa, especially as regards the ability to act as a regional ally for economic and political stability. The Netherlands believed it had a duty to assist South Africa in the country's return to the international community and this would take place by means of an economic development programme. This was the sentiment of the leader of a Dutch trade mission to the RSA in 1991. Dr Engering emphasised that the visit to South Africa was a sign that the Netherlands wanted the RSA to take an important economic and political position in the global arena. As in the case of Britain, the Dutch felt a particular kinship with a country where such historical and cultural links existed. If South Africa continued to reform, it was anticipated that the country would become the most important economic "locomotive" in Southern Africa. 140) The EC Council eventually decided to ease the set of measures adopted in 1986 against South Africa as soon as certain apartheid legislation was repealed, as a sign of support for a New South Africa "capable of resuming the place which it deserves in the international community". 141)Other. European nations also noted the importance of South Africa, particularly for the Southern African region: "Without an economically prosperous South Africa, the neighbouring countries have little prospect of economic development"142) Alter perceptions of the RSA's strategic significance were thus focused on the importance of trade with South Africa, with particular emphasis placed on South Africa's role in the Southern African region. South Africa, like most states in Southern Africa, faced little potential in the early 1990s for interstate conflict. What was more likely to be a threat was mass economic migration to a country that was perceived as having the most successful economy on the continent. As political tensions eased in the RSA, the dangers of a massive influx of people became clear and this particular problem would need to be controlled There was also the issue ofan Aids epidemic, which threatened to overwhelm much of the region. In light of these issues, the emphasis in Southern Africa at the time was slowly moving from conflict resolution to security management, as the region began to realise that individual situations of security were very much linked to those of neighbouring states. There was increasing emphasis on the advantages of a regional peacekeeping force, even though the concept had not proved particularly effective in the past as the continent had lacked the necessary resources to ensure successful operations. With South Africa now generally accepted as part of the region, the RSA's considerable resources could be utilised in this regard. Ultimately, international support would be needed and considering that a number of countries had an interest in the stability of Southern Africa, it was anticipated that such assistance would not be too difficult to acquire. 143) Most African states in the early 1990s, at least officially, did not want to lift sanctions at that stage against South Africa; even though trade between the RSA and the rest ofthe continent was rapidly increasing. This is yet another indication of the continuing difference between policy and action, as evident throughout much of the apartheid era. A Harare economist described this hypocritical situation: "The self-righteousness over sanctions still reigns ...but the reality is that it's a practical decade". The SADCC, however, issued a communique stating that it would be necessary for the "international community to maintain the measures taken against apartheid until the system is completely dismantled". In fact, in response to suggestions that the SADCC commence dialogue with non-liberation movements in South Africa, the organisation's executive secretary stated that: "There is no basis for (the) SADCC to relate to any institutions of apartheid". The OAU had also urged the maintenance of pressure against the South African Govemment.144) Thus although South Africa was continuing to trade with her neighbours and other states on the continent, politically, the pressure for change was strong and it was clear that a complete normalisation of relations would only be possible once a democratic political system had been established. Africa, however, had more pressing concerns than the democratic development of countries on the continent, namely, little hope offoreign investment in the post-Cold War era. Contacts between the RSA and the rest of the continent thus continued, some of which are noted below: Madagascar invited President De Klerk on a state visit where a reciprocal air link agreement was signed. A preferential trade agreement was concluded with Mozambique, and relations between Angola and South Africa improved dramatically. President Houphouet-Boigny not only granted SAA landing rights, but also permitted a South African trade mission in Abidjan. A South African trade mission was established in Lome, Toga and high-level contacts were made with Cameroon and Gabon. Kenya licensed South African Airways to commence weekly flights to Nairobi (although this was temporarily suspended after Mandela protested the move). Zambia lifted a ban on South African transport routes.14S) President Ibrahim Babangida ofNigeria referred to various areas of possible co-operation between South Africa and Nigeria. He also noted the possibility of a regional defence force for conflict resolution on the continent.l46l Zaire established diplomatic relations with South Africa at ambassadorial level in late 1993. Other countries which had followed the move towards a normalisation of relations with South Africa included the Congo and Equatorial Guinea. 147) Thus although ANC President Mandela had urged restraint in the re-establishment of relations with South Africa prior to the establishment of an interim government, following the reinstatement of relations with South Africa by such countries as Kenya and Zambia, the normalisation of relations between the RSA and much of the African continent continued.I48) Following a visit to South Africa by a group of African financiers, the president of the Africa Development Bank (AFDB) stated in early 1992, that should the CODESA negotiations be successful, South Africa would be welcomed as a member of the AFDB within two years. 149) In keeping with efforts at reconciliation, the South African Government eventually relinquished control of Walvis Bay and 12 offshore islands, as well as an adjoining piece of desert. Although Namibia had been granted independence in 1990, this section ofland had not been included. 1SO) Thus ended the protracted battle regarding control over the former South West Africa. It would appear that the RSA was continuing to promote the impression of being a responsible global player, an aspect that would be considered vital if complete marginalisation was to be avoided. It was noted at a SADCC summit that there would not be regional peace until South Africa had abolished apartheid. Yet the importance of the RSA to the region was made clear when it was emphasised that a New South Africa would be welcomed into the SADCC and would bring with it "a very strong economy"lSI) It was anticipated that South Africa would play the roles of "financier" and "engine of growth" in the Southern African region and replace increasingly-reluctant foreign donors.IS2) The SADC was established in 1992 at a summit of the SADCC, with the aim of creating an economic community in the Southern African region. SADC leaders urged Pretoria to hasten the country's transition to democracy, as this was set as a condition for the RSA's membership of the community.IS3) This can be considered significant in that the foundation had been laid for South Africa's admittance to the SADC; while the SADCC had been created to lessen dependence on South Africa in previous years. By 1993, the RSA' s importance to the region was again made apparent when a request was made at a regional security conference for the use of the South African arms industry to supply African armed forces. IS4) The previous year had also witnessed increasing co-operation between the RSA and the rest of the Southern African region, as evidenced by discussions regarding joint co-ordination of grain imports for drought-stricken states. Even the Frontline States moved to acknowledge South Africa by establishing a diplomatic mission in Pretoria.ISS) It would thus appear that, taking into account the relations and statements noted above, South Africa was indeed considered to hold a certain degree of significance for the nations of the African continent. As the OAU has been highlighted in the preceding chapter as playing a role in the anti-apartheid campaign, a brief evaluation of OAU statements and relations regarding South Africa in the 1990-1993 period is provided below. Although the OAU Secretary-General, Salim Salim, insisted that there was no basis for the international community to re-establish relations with the RSA while vestiges of apartheid remained; he held the belief that it was the people of South Africa who would ultimately decide their own future. Salim emphasised that the transformation in Eastern Europe could force Africans to realise the value of a combined effort as regards economic integration: "We can only do so by pooling our resources. I personally believe that Africa's second and more fundamental, economic liberation, can come about only by a co-ordinated, concerted inter-African action ...If countries in Europe feel the urge and necessity to unite in order to become a force, the need for Africa to become more united is even more imperative". 1S6) This sentiment was in line with statements made by South African leaders as regards the importance of African development and the RSA's potential in the region. Yet, as noted above, the early 1990s witnessed continued calls by the OAU for the maintenance of sanctions against South Africa. 157)The Ahuja Declaration, however, acknowledged the "positive developments" in South Africa and although the need to maintain pressure on the RSA was re-affirmed, a review of the sanctions policy would be undertaken once South Afiica removed "all obstacles to genuine negotiations". 158) This was a clear indication that South Africa's isolation, at least as regards much of the African continent, was drawing to a close. There can be no denying that perceptions of strategic significance played a role in this change of events. The US decision to lift economic sanctions against South Africa in 1991 was, however, condemned by Salim as "premature and unfortunate" .159) Yet certain African nations decided to commence trade with South Africa in spite ofthe OAU sanctions policy. Two examples in this regard are Kenya and Madagascar, who were determined to make use of early trade opportunities in the Southern part of the continent. 160)The OAU found itself in a precarious position, namely, the choice between lifting sanctions and being accused of betraying its cause against apartheid on the one hand; and continuing with sanctions while many of its members disregarded the organisation in their relations with the RSA, on the other. The primary concern for the "disobedient" members was making a niche for themselves in the South African marketplace before the countries of Eastern Europe managed to do SO.161) By 1992, the racial problems and township violence in South Africa were of primary concem.162) The OAU sent a fact-finding mission to South Africa, as well as a Mission of Experts, to establish the role that the organisation could play in counteracting the violence in the country.163) The OAU was thus eager for a peaceful resolution to South Africa's problems and the Frontline States endorsed moves as regards the establishment of closer relations with the RSAI64) This provides an indication of the continuing interest of the international community and particularly the African continent, in developments in South Africa. In contrast to previous years when trade with the RSA was conducted secretly by OAU member states, there was now little attempt to hide such relations and it was clear that political concerns were secondary to economic interests. As with the other nations discussed in this section, alter perceptions as regards South Africa's significance were thus predominantly dictated by economic interests, as was the case for many African nations during the Cold War era. As already noted and in line with changes in the post-Cold War environment and Mikhail Gorbachev's changed philosophy, Moscow eventually began to support negotiation as a means of regional conflict resolution. This concurred with a reduction of commitments in Angola and Mozambique. thus lost much of its apparent appeal for Moscow. Revolution had This included the situation in South Africa, where it appeared that a negotiated settlement was now a primary objective. 165) In accordance with these changes, the Soviet Foreign Minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, met with President De Klerk in March 1990.166) According to the head of the African department of the Soviet Foreign Ministry, Yuri Yukalov, the Soviet Union was eager to co-operate with South Africa as soon as it was possible to lift sanctions against the RSA. He insisted that confrontation and ideological differences had made way for "mutual understanding and co-operation". The Soviet Union was convinced that a political solution should be found for certain domestic conflicts and that the country was willing to assist in this regard: "We are prepared to develop all kinds of mutually beneficial co-operation with a democratic and non-racist South Africa. We are hopeful that this will become a real possibility in the near future and we are willing to promote this process". 167) Yet Yukalov was convinced that a realistic date for the opening of a Soviet Embassy in Pretoria would only be 1995. This date would ultimately depend on the dismantling of apartheid, although the USSR would not wait for the "total completion of this process". The only specification was that changes in South Africa have what he termed an "irreversible character". full recognition. 168) This can be considered a broad description of the terms for The USSR like many global players, was thus eager to re-establish relations with South Africa. As emphasised, there were not many official statements made regarding South Africa's strategic significance to this particular part of the globe during the periods under discussion; although it was clear that, particularly for economic reasons, the re-establishment of relations with South Africa was considered in a positive light. Alter perceptions in this case are thus based on the extent of relations between the two countries. Eleven of the former USSR Republics eventually became the Commonwealth ofIndependent 169 in 1991. ) States (CIS) It was anticipated in the early 1990s that Russia, as the generally-accepted legal successor to the USSR, would seek to increase relations with South Africa as the RSA was the most developed country in Africa and had been an ally of various CIS countries as regards markets for mining and raw materials. Yet like many countries across the globe facing economic and political changes, CIS nations were turning inwards instead of focusing on regional and international concerns. This would ultimately restrict CIS involvement in the Third World and it was anticipated that a neutral position would be maintained as regards any future regional conflicts, at least in the short-to-medium term. 170) By 1991, there was a real breakthrough in Soviet/RSA relations with the opening of respective interest offices in both Pretoria and Moscow. Yet, the sentiment was that international sanctions against South Africa would have to remain until the complete dissolution of the apartheid system. This placed the Soviet Union in an interesting predicament, as described by a Soviet Foreign Ministry official: "The Soviet Union now has no specially acute, urgent need for establishing economic co-operation with South Africa ...At the same time, however, in a modem interdependent world, the absence of such ties, dictated purely by ideological and political factors, becomes an absurd anachronism and hardly contributes to long-term national interests. This is a contradictory situation". 171) The Soviet Ministry of External Economic Relations also expressed interest in the early 1990s in the development of co-operation with South Africa: "The Soviet Union should undertake brave steps to secure its economic interests in South Africa." Possible fields of co-operation included mining, manufacturing, and consumer goods. Prospects for economic co-operation between the two countries were, however, uncertain in light of such factors as the South African Western-orientated economy, and instability in both countries. Eventually, the Soviet Union-South African Society was established to develop increasing contacts. Former Soviet Foreign Minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, was convinced that extensive technological 172) and I73 industrial co-operation would be possible between the Soviet Union and South Africa. ) Boris Asoyan, Soviet Ambassador to Botswana in 1991, admitted the inevitability of spontaneous contacts between the two countries and noted that many countries were not waiting for the official repeal of sanctions. Tbe reason for this was economic interest: "Economic considerations are the basis; South Africa ...has a lot to offer on preferential terms" .174) It was noted that Soviet policy in earlier years as regards South Africa had been influenced by two mutually contradictory approaches, namely, the ideological-political approach, and the commercial-economic approach. Priority to the latter approach gradually became clear. In conjunction with this renewed emphasis on economic concerns was an emphasis on political means for the solution to the problem of apartheid: "We do not place emphasis on support of the armed struggle". m) In 1991, there were considered to be three main areas of potential co-operation between the RSA and the Soviet Union, namely, co-operation on the international market in gold, diamonds and rare metals; direct economic ties; and South African contributions as regards managerial expertise and knowledge about doing business in sub-Saharan Africa. 176) Throughout the period under discussion in this chapter, the Current Digest of the Soviet Press indicated various statements regarding the importance of economic relations with South Africa, for example: "The advantages of co-operation with a country of such economic potential as the RSA ...are unquestionable for us, especially today, as we grapple with acute shortages offood and everything else". 177) Another example involved a particular reference to the mining industry: "The potential for co-operation is enormous. It has been said and written many times that by pooling their efforts and co-ordinating their policies, South Africa and Russia could set world prices for diamonds and, to a significant extent, for gold". 171) As an example of economic co-operation in the minerals industry, there was an agreement by a Swiss-based subsidiary of De Beers in 1990, to market Soviet uncut diamonds, although this was later suspended as a result of internal Soviet politics. 179) The potential for trade and economic relations was considered to be "rather good". South Africa was also referred to as "the most powerful state on the Dark Continent". III) 180) It was noted that even though the UN sanctions campaign against South Africa had been supported in the past, the Soviet Union would "certainly not be the last to abandon" policy guidelines stipulated by the UN. 182) Consular relations with the Kremlin were established in September 1991 and were upgraded to full embassy status by early 1992. President De Klerk even paid an official visit to Moscow in June 1992. South Africa continued to establish full diplomatic relations with other states ofthe CIS during the years under discussion in this chapter, although often without resident ambassadors. The Russian Government did, however, close the ANC office in Moscow and this can be considered another sign of the Russian Government's commitment to a peaceful transition to democracy in South Africa. The official two-way trade figure in 1993 between South Africa and Russia was estimated at $200 million.183) Yet there were concerns that Russian interest in the African continent was diminishing. This was contested in 1993 by the Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Africa Department: "Shifting our co-operation with Africa ...will in fact allow Russia to strengthen its positions there and to put them on a basis that serves Russia's interests first of all" .184) Eventually the Soviet Union came out against sanctions, stating that they were counterproductive and merely reinforced "the psychology of the laager", which referred to the isolating of the target state and ultimately, increased resistance to change. As has been noted, although there was an insistence on the establishment of a democracy in South Africa, the sentiment was that it was to be achieved by negotiation and not the armed struggle.18S) This radical change in behaviour as regards relations with the RSA can be considered a complete reversal of attitudes to those during the Cold War era, when the perception was that the US and the USSR were attempting to use Africa and particularly the Southern part of the continent, as a strategic "pawn" in the battle to extend or resist communist expansionism. In the aftermath of global change, it would appear that South Africa continued to retain perceptions of strategic significance, although these perceptions were now primarily focused on economic interests. The end of the Cold War thus had repercussions for states far beyond the US and the former USSR. For South Africa, the element of strategic significance related to the control of communism in the Third World had been lost; although the importance of economic concerns remained strong. In the pre-1990 period, there had been a continual emphasis on the value of South Africa as regards the Cape Sea Route; the RSA's strategic minerals; and the importance ofa pro-Western ally in an unstable part of the globe, prone to Soviet influence. This was apparent in both ego and alter perceptions of strategic significance. The strategic importance of South Africa, particularly in the Southern African region, could therefore not be avoided, as indicated by the economic transactions between the RSA and the international community which continued in spite of criticism regarding South Africa's domestic apartheid policies. The end of the Cold War, however, removed the need for an anti-communist stalwart at the tip of the African continent. Facing increasing marginalisation in favour of Eastern Europe, African nations began to turn inwards and it was clear that South Africa would playa valuable role in this regard. This was evident in the vast number of statements made by South African politicians as regards South Africa's important role in the Southern African region. Attention was paid to such aspects as the RSA's stabilising effect, strong economy and management skills. It was hoped that this would be recognised by the international community and would afford South Africa a certain degree of strategic significance. As international relations also indicate the degree of recognition which the international community bestows on a state, emphasis was placed on the normalisation of these relations. This could be little denying that these relations were based on economic concerns, as indicated by alter perceptions in this regard. South Africa's strategic minerals were still considered important and although it was possible to procure alternative sources, costs were prohibitive. As economic issues were vital in the post-Cold War era, it was unlikely that states would consider political concerns to be the primary influencing factor as regards international relations. The international community, in general, thus established relations with South Africa, particularly in the area of trade, and often prior to the official ending of the sanctions campaign. South Africa's role in the Southern African region was indeed recognised and the RSA was described as an "engine of growth" in this regard. Considering Africa's dismal record of the past, it was clear that the international community welcomed the opportunity to relinquish responsibility for much of the Third World's future economic development and security to South Africa. This provided the RSA with a relative degree of strategic significance. What is thus apparent in the period under discussion in this chapter, is that although South Africa's strategic significance had indeed undergone a certain amount of change, the country retained elements of importance for the international community. As communism was no longer an issue of concern, the South African Government realised the need to retain international support and thus emphasised the RSA's importance for both the Southern African region and the entire African continent. These ego perceptions were recognised as being valid by much of the world, thus securing South Africa's strategic significance in this regard. Other ego perceptions which were validated included the importance of South Africa for global trade and the value of the RSA's strategic minerals. It is thus clear that South Africa managed to retain a degree of strategic significance in the post-Cold War era. 1. 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It has been established that the term strategic significance has evolved to include aspects other than pure military strategy. It is now a more total concept, including both tangible and non-tangible aspects of national capability, such as political leadership and economic capability. Strategic significance is influenced by both ego and alter perceptions, with the former referring to local perceptions and opinions; and the latter focused on the perceptions of states in the external environment. Yet it should be noted, that although certain aspects of strategic significance remain unaltered, the concept itselfis a dynamic one and change is thus to be anticipated. A nation's strategic value is thus likely to alter with time. The first aspect of strategic significance, namely, national capability, forms the basis ofa state's level of power and influence in the international community. Yet, as noted, national capability is a relative concept a'1d is thus linked to certain situations. The implication is thus that a state may possess a strong capability and level of power in a certain situation only. The tangible and intangible determinants of national capability need to be utilised and formed into a cohesive unit if they are to be translated into power. It is therefore insufficient to merely possess, for example, an abundance of natural resources, as these need to be effectively incorporated into objectives. Examples of tangible or physical elements include geography, natural resources, population, and economic capability. Military capability is also included as it continues to form a vital part of national capability. The intangible determinants of national capability are more difficult to measure and include such aspects as national morale, national character, political organisation, and political leadership. These aspects are, however, no less important than the more tangible aspects and should thus also to be taken into account. Ego perceptions of strategic significance can be linked to national roles in that a government, taking into account the country's national capability, will pursue various orientations in accordance with both domestic and external conditions and requirements. It is clear that the stronger a state, the more roles it will play and the more power it will possess in the external environment. It is, however, possible for states to assume completely different roles in different situations and as in the case of national capability, roles will thus vary according to local and foreign influences. As indicated in this study, South Africa's strategic significance and related role perceptions were affected by the end of the Cold War and the resultant changes in the external environment. No one state can claim to exist independently from other states in the international system and it is therefore inevitable that changes in this system will have an impact on individual members. The perceptions of strategic significance held by these member states (alter perceptions) significance. should thus also be considered in an assessment of strategic As the Cold War drew to an end in the late 1980s, it became clear that there would be repercussions in many parts of the globe. It has been established that South Africa's strategic significance was emphasised during the Cold War era as a result of the country's geo-strategic position and national capability, particularly as regards vast reserves of strategic minerals. The end of this era, however, witnessed a decline in US-Soviet conflict and the need for an anti-communist ally at the tip of the African continent diminished as a result. In fact, nations became less interested in the external environment in general and instead turned to previously-neglected domestic concerns. This resulted in the marginalisation of many Third World countries, including those in Africa. The new democratic states of Eastern Europe also began to draw international investment away from Africa, in part because of the latter's poor financial and human rights record. Strategic significance thus began to include other aspects of importance, including what has been termed a state's record of "good governance", the presence of market-based economies, arms controL and a lack of human rights violations. States that did not develop these characteristics would lose an element of strategic significance as a result. Ideological concerns in the new era were thus secondary to economic and humanitarian issues The African continent did not fare well in many of the aspects noted above and thus the tendency of the developed world to turn to Eastern Europe in an attempt to ensure the successful transition of these states to full democracy. In order to survive, African nations would have to turn to regional co-operation and development; and it was here that South Africa would find a primary focus in the post-Cold War era. The RSA possessed, amongst other things, a strong economy, a solid military capability, and experience of African problems. The perception was thus that South Africa would become a stabilising and developmental "force" not only in the Southern African region, but across the entire continent. This would ensure a degree of strategic significance for South Africa, while at the same time releasing the international community of much of the responsibility for development in this part of the globe. In order to assess the ability of South Africa to fulfill this role, as well as related perceptions of strategic significance during both periods discussed, a comparative analysis of the previous chapters is provided below. This will include a brief, tabulated comparison. In the introduction to this study, the concept of comparative analysis was defined as the presentation of information, either as facts or figures, for the purpose of comparison. It provides an opportunity to identify uniformities and/or differences, and the process requires systematically-selected data. Variables are thus identified and compared. The preceding six chapters have provided information regarding the theory of strategic significance, South Africa's national capability, and ego and alter perceptions of the country's strategic significance. This information covered two distinct periods, namely, from approximately 1945 to 1989 and from 1990 to 1993. Although a brief comparison of the two periods is available at the end of certain chapters, a more in-depth comparison is now provided. This section has been sub-divided not only into the three elements which constitute the concept of strategic significance, but for ease of reference, has also been separated into the pre1990 and 1990-1993 periods. The national capability of the RSA has assured South Africa of a relative degree of strategic significance. Although not a particularly strong state when compared with such world powers as the US, on the African continent at least, South Africa's national capability was considered extensive. South Africa's geo-strategic position at the tip of Africa, controlling the Cape Sea Route, cannot be disputed. This can be considered the most important aspect of South Africa's strategic significance, as the country was automatically awarded a degree of importance as a result of this vital positioning. Although generally considered a dry country with little arable land, South Africa is relatively well-endowed with natural resources, particularly strategic mineral and energy reserves. Gold, coal, diamonds, and the platinumgroup metals are examples in this regard and all contributed to South Africa's strategic significance. It has, in fact, been noted that such was the value of certain minerals to the West, that they were not included in the CAAA. The one aspect lacking in South Africa's national capability was oil and although this can be considered a vulnerability, the South African Government displayed a remarkable ability to obtain oil reserves from external sources. The fact that this took place during a supposed oil embargo against the RSA indicates that trade with South Africa was considered valuable enough to override political concerns as regards domestic apartheid policies. Yet South Africa's economy did weaken at a certain point and this was linked to both domestic and external circumstances, including the effects of the international sanctions campaign against the RSA. As regards population, South African citizens constituted various population groups, with different skill and educational levels. These differences had a negative impact on the overall level of population skill. On the technological level, few could doubt the resourcefulness of the South African nation as regards self-sufficiency in the face of increasing international isolation. This is especially relevant in the military sector, where South Africa not only developed a military industry for own use, but eventually began to export military technology. Overall, South Africa maintained a relatively strong military capability, particularly after the concept of "Total Strategy" was developed to deal with the perceived communist onslaught. South Africa also possessed a modern transport system on which many states in the Southern African region were dependent. This had an important effect on the country's level of strategic significance in that few countries in the region could afford to be isolated from the RSA. As noted above, non-tangible determinants of national capability are as important as their tangible counterparts In the case of South Africa, national character and morale were negatively affected by domestic crime, political violence and high unemployment levels. As regards political organisation, there was a definite decrease in support for the concept of apartheid and a resultant diminishing of apartheid legislation. Political leadership and support revolved around the National Party, whose leaders managed to obtain support for a change in domestic policies. In summary, although facing various socio-economic problems and low morale, South Africa possessed a relatively strong national capability and this was linked to both the national roles selected, as well as perceptions of significance. Although the aspect of the RSA' s strategic mineral reserves remained important for the international community, the opening of more markets and alternative sources in the era following the end of the Cold War, resulted in increasing competition. This situation made the effective functioning of the South African economy even more important and it was clear that negative factors such as high inflation rates and ineffective trade policies would have to be addressed in order to bring the RSA in line with global standards. educational standards across all population groups would also have to attained. Appropriate technical and South Africa's military capability, however, was relegated to a lesser position of importance as a result of increasing domestic social concerns that demanded a decrease in defence budgeting. The end of the Cold War thus resulted in the diminishing importance of the defence establishment as social and economic concerns began to predominate. As in the preceding period under discussion, non-tangible aspects of national capability were increasingly negative. High inflation, unemployment, continuing political violence and high crime levels, as well as a lack of adequate housing, were just a few of the problems troubling South African citizens. Many were uncertain about a peaceful future in the RSA and personal safety was a primary concern. The level of political violence and general crime was, in fact, so extensive that it was anticipated that the internal situation could become uncontrollable. This had a negative effect on the economy as investors became increasingly hesitant. The aspect of crime can be considered the issue that had the most impact on national morale in the 1990-1993 period. As the reform process of South Africa's domestic political dispensation continued, other concerns, such as minority group rights and land redistribution, also had a negative effect on national morale. Yet most citizens remained in favour of negotiating a new constitution. Despite the negative factors noted above, South Africa's national capability in the immediate post-Cold War period displayed a certain increase over the preceding period, as indicated by the statistics contained in this study. Factors such as the importance of the Cape Sea Route for international trade and the availability of South Africa's strategic mineral reserves, even taking increasing international competition into account, remained important elements of national capability. There was also the added aspect of the RSA's infrastructure, which played a vital role in the economies of neighbouring states; as well as the increasing importance of South Africa's role in the Southern African region and the African continent in general. Both ego and alter perceptions of strategic significance emphasised these aspects. Based on the RSA's established national capability, South Mrican politicians were eager to emphasise the importance of the RSA to the international community, particularly when the international sanctions campaign threatened to isolate the country from much of the globe. Although the RSA had played an important role for the Allied powers during the Second World War, this was apparently insufficient to deter international opposition to South Africa's apartheid policies. In order to counter this situation, South African politicians emphasised the RSA's value to the African continent and the West in general, particularly as a result of Soviet aims in the Third World. Soviet control of the Cape Sea Route and South Africa's strategic mineral reserves would have had negative consequences for the West and world trade patterns. South Africa's perceived importance was thus directly linked to the country's position as an anti- communist ally in the Third World. Much of NATO's oil and mineral requirements were shipped around the Cape, increasing the importance of Cape Route to the international community and it was established that except for Soviet sources, South Africa was the only major source of certain strategic minerals. Although these minerals could be substituted or stockpiled, the costs associated with such moves were considered prohibitive. There was also the issue of South Africa's strong military capability and the use of the Simonstown Naval Base by Western allies. It has already been noted that several states continued to provide South Africa with oil supplies in spite of the oil embargo and a similar situation evolved as regards the armaments embargo. Although South Africa was forced to develop a local military industry as a result, certain foreign sources were still available. Local industry was, however, sufficient to provide the RSA with an added degree of strategic significance. South Africa's value to the Southern African region during the periods under discussion cannot be denied, particularly as many of the states in the region were geographically dependent on the RSA as regards such aspects as trade, infrastructure and employment. The application of extensive economic sanctions against South Afiica would thus have had negative consequences for the economies of these states. This was something that was continually emphasised by the South African Government, who attempted to establish a "Commonwealth" in the region as a result. Although the states of the Southern Mrican region attempted to liberate themselves economically from South Africa by the establishment of the SADCC and eventually the SADC, they did not manage to loosen the economic ties which bound them to the RSA. Trade between South Africa and the other states in the region actually increased. It was thus clear that economic concerns and not political criticism, dictated relations in this regard and the perception was that by implementing a higher degree of economic integration, it would become increasingly difficult for the international community to isolate the RSA without endangering the economies of other states in the region. It was anticipated that this would also eventually award South Africa with recognition as a strong regional power that could assist in the economic development and security of the Southern African region. It thus become customary for many states to vehemently criticise South Africa's racial policies, while at the same time secretly conduct trade relations with the RSA. Many African states, in fact, relied on the international community to apply sanctions on their behalf, This is not to deny the impact of the international sanctions campaign, as this played a predominant role in the first era under discussion. It has, however, been established that sanctions were not the only factor which ultimately led to the abandonment of the country's apartheid policies. When change eventually did occur, it was as a result of various aspects, including domestic factors. The sanctions campaign, in fact, hardened the attitudes of many South Africans who became increasingly determined to resist their effect. This has been termed the "laager effect". Yet the international community persisted in the sanctions campaign, partly in an effort to convince the more radical African nations not to resort to violence in an attempt to enforce change in South Africa. International condemnation of the RSA's policies first appeared on the agenda of the UN General Assembly in the early 1950s. Sanctions were eventually implemented by many nations across the globe and covered a wide spectrum of aspects, including landing rights, and the sale of Krugerrands and military equipment. The extent of these sanctions, as well as differences in international application, conveyed an indication of the strategic importance that the international community attached to South Africa. The US refusal to include certain strategic minerals in the CAAA, as noted above, is an example; as is the dispute between the Commonwealth and Britain regarding sanctions. In the years under discussion, it is clear that most of South Africa's support, even during the sanctions campaign, came from the US and especially Britain. This support can be considered to have been the result of perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance as an anti-communist stalwart alongside the Cape Sea Route; as an economic trading partner; and as a stabilising force in a notoriously unstable section of the globe. Britain had the added complication of strong historical ties with South Africa which were difficult to ignore. Although many EC nations did impose certain sanctions against South Africa, trade continued and it has been established that the failure of the sanctions campaign to achieve its ultimate aim can be considered a result of such ineffective application. In the pre-1990 period, much attention was thus paid to communist aspirations on the African continent, even though the Soviets released few official statements in this regard. It has been argued that the communist threat to South Africa had been over-estimated, although there is sufficient information available to counteract this theory. There can be little denying that Soviet control of South Africa's strategic mineral reserves, in conjunction with Soviet reserves, as well as control of the Cape Sea Route, would ultimately have led to an extremely difficult situation for the Western World. It has even been suggested that an economic recession would have resulted in such a case. South Africa's ego perceptions during the Cold War era were thus dominated by geo-strategic, ideological and economic interests. The end of the Cold War resulted in various changes in the external environment, such as a diminishing of the Soviet threat. Further reform in South Africa and the relaxation of international sanctions against the RSA, as well as the relative normalisation of South Africa's international relations, were also characteristic of the 19901993 era. Considering that South Africa could no longer count on a certain degree of automatic strategic significance as an anti-communist ally, the emphasis of ego perceptions was bound to be altered. The question was in what direction South African politicians would place the country's strategic importance? Certain elements, for example, the importance of the Cape Sea Route and the value of the RSA's strategic minerals, continued in the post-Cold War era; but there was a definite change in their actual significance in that both elements were previously directly linked to Cold War perceptions of communist expansionism. In the second era under discussion, the Cape Route and the minerals issue took on a purely economic slant and it was clear that South Africa's strategic significance would need to be augmented. By 1990, South Africa's national capability began to assume increasing importance for the Southern African region. As the marginalisation of Africa began to exact a financial toll on the over-burdened continent, the assumption was that South Africa's national capability could assist neighbouring states. As the world entered a new era, it became clear that economic interest would be of primary concern. In order to regain the degree of strategic significance lost as a result of diminishing Soviet expansionist aims, attention was instead focused on regional concerns and South Africa's national capability, particularly the country's infrastructure and strong economy. This is not to neglect the importance of South Africa's military establishment for the purpose of regional security and possible peacekeeping missions, especially as the developed world began to withdraw in this regard. The country's continuing strategic importance for the African continent in general and the Southern African region in particular, was thus continually emphasised. In this era of improved relations, African nations were more open to these suggestions and the value of the RSA' s national capability was increasingly welcomed. The need for regional development was stressed and it was clear that the aim was the re-establishment of South Africa as a key international player, with a particularly important role on the continent. There was also another side to this argument, namely, the realisation that South Africa's survival was linked to that of her neighbours. In other words, political instability and economic despair in neighbouring states would have unavoidable repercussions for the RSA. The importance of South Africa as an international economic partner was also emphasised. The apartheid years of the previous era had proved the significance of the RSA in this regard, as evidenced by continuing trade in spite of the international sanctions campaign. The normalisation of relations between South Africa and the rest of the world resulted in the formal re-establishment of trade relations with many countries, in some cases even prior to the formal ending of sanctions. These relations were noted by the South African Government as a sign of the country's significance to the international community and thus formed an import part of ego perceptions. Ultimately, an analysis of the two periods under discussion highlights the strategic importance awarded South Africa during the Cold War as a result of the country's geo-strategic position and strategic mineral reserves. Although these two elements remained in the post-Cold War era, the threat of communist expansionism was replaced by ego perceptions of South Africa's significance as both an international economic partner and particularly, an important regional ally. The final aspect to be summarised in this concluding chapter is the strategic significance of the RSA as noted by the external environment. As previously established, the concept of strategic significance involves both ego and alter perceptions, and the latter aspect is thus discussed below. In response to the South African Government's emphasis on the RSA' s strategic importance to the international community, many states inadvertently reinforced these perceptions by criticising South Africa's apartheid policies on the one hand, but secretly trading with the RSA on the other. The international sanctions campaign against South Africa dominated much of the pre-1990 era and as already noted, the failure of this campaign can be considered to provide an indication of strategic importance in that it was not universally applied. Fears of communist expansionism dominated Western perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance, especially as regards the US and Britain. Both Administrations thus resisted the application of sanctions as long as possible, although the US eventually succumbed to pressure and drafted the CAAA. These two countries were, however, eager to lift sanctions once the South African Government met certain requirements. This was despite the request by many African nations and the DAU in particular, for the continuation of the sanctions campaign until the establishment of a true democracy in South Africa. South Africa's importance to the US and Britain during the Cold War era was thus clearly as an anti-communist ally, which permitted use of the Cape Sea Route and allowed access to the country's strategic minerals. This latter aspect was especially important for the US as these minerals were vital for the manufacture of certain products, including automobiles and military equipment. The US had undeniable strategic and economic interests in South Africa and the Southern African region which would be threatened in the event of a communist takeover in the RSA. This scenario would become increasingly likely in the event of continuing political and economic instability in South Afiica. The US was thus intent on assisting the RSA in the transition process, but was forced as a result of pressure from particularly the African states, to apply sanctions as a form of criticism of apartheid policies. Yet the importance of South Africa's geo-strategic position, mineral reserves, and anticommunist ideology was continually emphasised by various US politicians and Presidents. regard have, in fact, been labelled "obsessive" as regards the pre-occupation US policies in this with the countering of Soviet influence in the Southern African region. British perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance were influenced by both the factors mentioned above, as well as the historical ties between the two countries; while for the other members of the EC, South Africa's importance was primarily as an economic ally. This perception was reinforced by continuing trade between many EC member states and South Africa throughout much of the sanctions campaign, although certain sanctions were eventually introduced by individual states. For many nations, the sanctions campaign was, in fact, a means to satisfy the demands of African states so that "a call to arms" would not be considered. Although the African continent in general was vehement in its criticism of South Africa's apartheid policies, as has been noted above, trade with the RSA was a matter of survival and thus continued. The RSA's strategic importance to the African continent during and prior to the Cold War era, was thus as an economic trading partner. For decades, the Soviets supported "liberation fighters", including the ANC, in their battle against South Africa's apartheid regime, leading to what was termed the "Total Onslaught". There was also Soviet support for the sanctions campaign, although it has been determined that economic relations, predominantly as regards the diamond industry, continued. As mention has already been made of fears of communist expansionism in the Southern African region, it is not necessary to reiterate this information. Yet there can be little denying that access to South Africa's minerals and the Cape Sea Route, as well as denying these aspects to the West, would have provided the Soviets with an added advantage during the Cold War. Once it was deemed that change in South Africa had taken on an irreversible character, the end of the sanctions campaign followed. It was clear that nations were eager to re-establish relations with the RSA, particularly in the economic sphere. There was thus a definite shift to a normalisation of relations between South Africa and the international community, and the former's role on the African continent and particularly in the Southern African region, began to assume increasing significance as a result of marginalisation of the Third World in the post-Cold War era. As noted above, the end of the Cold War and the South African Government's attempts at reform resulted in a normalisation of relations between the RSA and much of the international community. Alter perceptions regarding South Africa's strategic significance in the 1990-1993 era were predominantly centered around the importance of South Africa as an economic partner and stabilising power in the Southern African region. Although few official pronouncements in this regard were made, expanding relations can be considered to provide an indication of strategic importance, and the ending of the international sanctions campaign against South Africa played an important role in this normalisation of relations. The US continued to emphasise the importance of stability in the Southern African region in order to safeguard US interests in this part of the globe, and stability in South Africa played an important role in this regard. It was anticipated that the successful transition of South Africa to a democracy with a strong economy would have positive effects throughout the region and would result in increasing international interest in the African continent. As has been noted, the Third World was suffering increasing marginalisation and South Africa was perceived as playing a valuable role in reawakening international interest in Africa and especially the Southern African region. Britain and the rest of the EC were also eager to end the sanctions campaign against South Africa and trade between the RSA and these countries increased in the post-Cold War era. South Africa was again perceived as vital to the economic prosperity of the Southern African region. Although many African states in the early 1990s did not want to lift sanctions, trade between these states and South Africa continued to increase in response to the situation of dependence noted above. It was emphasised that the RSA would be welcomed into regional organisations should the process of reform be continued and that South Africa would bring a strong economic capability into these organisations. Alter perceptions of South Africa's strategic significance were thus directly linked to the RSA's economic capability, and relations between South Africa and the rest of the continent continued to improve during the second period under discussion as a result. Soviet involvement in South Africa in the post-Cold War era displayed a remarkable change from previous years in that the emphasis was on negotiation and political solutions. The USSR (later Russia) was also eager to reestablish relations with the RSA. Mention has been made of Soviet economic interests in South Africa and as was the case for many states in the new era, alter perceptions of strategic significance were centred around economic concerns. This was admitted by various Soviet politicia,ns and academics. Considering that the new era witnessed an increasing introspection by nations across the globe as they attempted to solve domestic economic and social problems, the importance of stable economic relations could not be ignored. Alter perceptions in the 1990-1993 period thus focused almost exclusively on South Africa's strategic value in the Southern African region and as an international economic partner. A tabulated comparison of relevant aspects of the RSA's strategic significance in the pre- and immediate postCold War period is provided below. The tables will highlight and compare aspects of importance as regards South Afiica's national capability, as wel1 as ego and alter perceptions of strategic significance in both periods under discussion in this study. Element Pre-1990 1990-1993 Sim ilarities/DifTerences 1. Physical detenninants form the basis of initial strategic significance Geography, Important geographical Value of extensive resources Increase in local and climate and position alongside the Cape continues to increase; four oil international sales of minerals natural resources Sea Route; warm climate; refineries built to process and energy; but a degree of vast natural resources, imported crude oil. strategic significance lost in particularly mineral and this regard in the post-Cold energy; RSA possesses War era as a result of minimal local oil supplies. increased international competition. Population and Various population groups High unemployment levels Population remains unskil1ed, manpower, with various skill and remain a concern; although some improvement including educational levels; extensive requirement for improved in standard of education; distribution, unemployment. educational levels across all unemployment levels employment, and population groups; South continue to rise and have a technical and Afiican population continues negative influence on overall educational to grow. national capability and levels strategic significance. Economic Economic recession during High inflation considered Continuing high inflation capability, the 1980s, partly as a result problematic; GDP declines in levels, although a slight including of the international the early 1990s, although economic improvement is industrial sanctions campaign; relative there is a slight increase by noted; increasing dependence capacity, self-sufficiency attained as 1993; foreign trade increases on foreign trade considered a technological regards technological dramatically; less emphasis problem; attempts to increase capability, and capability; deterioration in on the need for self- communications growth performance from sufficiency, particularly as regards non-military infrastructure the late 1960s; well- regards military technology. products; RSA's . technological capability as developed communications communications infrastructure. infrastructure continues to increase and improve, to the extent that Southern Africa cannot avoid dependence; all of the above have a positive impact on South Africa's strategic significance. Military Relatively strong military End of the Cold War reduces Although military capability capability capability, based on self- requirement for a strong remains strong when sufficiency as a result of the military capability; defence compared with the rest of the arms embargo. budget shrinks. African continent, deterioration to a certain extent did occur as a result of budgetary cuts in order to finance socio-economic concerns; yet the RSA's military capability could possibly be utilised in peacekeeping operations on the African continent, thus increasing South Africa's strategic significance. 2. Non-tangible determinants difficult to measure, but vital to an assessment of strategic significance National Low level of national morale Social concerns a priority; General despondency as character and as a result of such factors as extensive unemployment, regards the crime situation, morale unemployment, political political violence, crime, and although less concern about violence and minority group poverty continue to have a external threats to the RSA; fears; support for a negative effect on morale. morale low among all sectors of the population during both negotiated settlement. periods under discussion, with a resultant negative influence on overall national capability and strategic significance. Political Apartheid policies practised, The process towards Movement towards a more organisation resulting in local and establishment of a democracy acceptable political international condemnation; continues; majority support dispensation; considered vital but process of incorporation of Black as regards formal re- democratisation leaders into government; establishment of international commences. realisation that power of the relations and increased state will be increased by strategic significance. changes to apartheid policies. Political National Party displays F.W. de Klerk (NP) and Continuing strong leadership leadership strong leadership skill by Nelson Mandela (ANC) both during both periods under gathering enough support to skilled leaders in that each discussion; as evidenced by continue the reform process. manages to convince their the relatively peaceful respective electorates of the negotiating process that importance of peaceful followed; success in this negotiations. regard has a positive impact on strategic significance. Economic policy Decrease in economic Principles of free-market Increasing efforts made perfonnance as a result of economy, private enterprise towards the establishment of various factors, including and ownership supported; sound economic policies in ineffective government attempts made to improve an attempt to increase overall monetary policies; presence economic perfonnance. national capability and of monopolies and ultimately, strategic interventionist policies significance. considered to have a negative impact on the economy. Pre-1990 1990-1993 Change in degree of strate~ic significance Aspects emphasised by the South African Government as adding to the RSA's strategic significance Geographical Importance of the Cape Sea Cape Sea Route still Continuing importance of location Route; threat of Soviet important, but no emphasis geo-strategic location, control and imposition of a on possible communist particularly for the purposes blockade. expansionism; importance of of world trade and as a South Africa as a stable, strong ally for the rest of the economically strong ally on a continent; but an element of generally unstable continent. strategic significance lost as a result of the end of the Cold War. Anti-communist Role of South Africa in the stalwart battle against communist expansionism in the Third World. No longer relevant. Definite loss of strategic significance in this regard. Military Role played during both Possible peacekeeping role in Decrease in strategic capability World Wars; particular Africa and particularly the significance as regards RSA's importance of Simonstown Southern Mrican region. role as a military ally for the Naval Base. West; but this coincides with the above-mentioned increase in strategic significance as a result of South Africa's importance for regional peacekeeping operations. Strategic mineral Possibility of Soviet control Continuing importance of Loss of a degree of strategic reserves of South Africa's strategic strategic minerals, although significance in this regard, minerals and their denial to with increasing international although RSA minerals still the West. competition. valuable. Importance to Region economically Emphasis on South Africa's Increased strategic the Southern dependent on South Africa; role in the region in light of significance of South Africa African region emphasis on "outward" increasing marginalisation of to the Southern African policy; relatively extensive the Third World; possibility region; can be considered trade relations. of a regional economic bloc. particularly important in a marginalised Third World. International Not emphasised as much as Value of South Africa as an RSA's increased national economic the above aspects during economic trading partner; capability results in increased capability this period. trade and other relations ego perceptions of strategic increase as sanctions are significance, not only as an eased; arms control international economic emphasised in an attempt to partner, but the RSA also create perception of likely to play an increasingly international responsibility. important role in the international community as a responsible global player. Pre-1990 1990-1993 Change in degree of strate2ic si2nificance The countries noted below held definite perceptions of the RSA's strategic importance during the years under discussion in this study. US Britain South Africa's value as a A stable RSA would secure RSA retains a degree of strategic minerals supplier US interests in the Southern strategic significance as a along the Cape Sea Route African region and African stabilising power on the and as an anti-communist continent in general; African continent and ally in an unstable region; continuing value of South supplier of strategic minerals; CAAA eventually Africa's strategic minerals; but no longer important as an implemented after initial sanctions campaign ends anti-communist ally. resistance to sanctions following positive change in against South Africa. South Africa. RSA's significance as an Importance of South Africa Continuing strategic anti-communist ally; for stability in Southern significance as a stabilising importance of the Cape Sea Africa, which would in turn power on the continent; but Route and historical ties; protect British interests in the the end of the Cold War initial resistance to sanctions region; importance of results in a relative decrease against South Africa. bilateral economic ties. in strategic significance as the RSA is no longer important in the battle against communist expansionism. EC Importance of South Africa Trade with South Africa RSA continues to be as an economic trading increases as sanctions strategically significant as a partner; although the EC campaign draws to a close; trading partner. applies economic sanctions emphasis on importance of against the RSA, application trade with the RSA and the is not uniform. Southern African region in general. The African Economically dependent on Resistance to formal ending Unavoidable economic continent South Africa; SADCC of the sanctions campaign, dependence on South Africa attempts to diminish this but trade with South Africa becomes more acceptable dependence, but fails in its continues; SADCC prepared following internal RSA objective; sanctions against to accept a democratic South political reform; South Africa South African have a Africa into the organisation, thus retains and increases negative effect on the partly due to the RSA's strategic significance. economies of these states strong economy; bi-lateral and bilateral trade with the relations with South Africa RSA therefore continues; increase. politically opposed to the apartheid regime, but trade with South Africa practically unavoidable. Soviet Union Interest in access to the Emphasis on negotiated Certain loss of strategic RSA's strategic minerals; settlement of South Africa's significance at the end of the value of South Africa as a problems; importance of Cold War, but continuing potential communist ally in economic relations with the focus on the importance of the Third Wodd, although RSA. economic relations. this theory has been contested; support for sanctions against South Africa, although trade in diamonds and gold believed to have taken place. In conclusion, South Africa's strategic significance in the pre- and immediate post-Cold War period was undeniable and there is ample evidence to this effect. The emphasis of strategic importance did, however, change in accordance with changes in the external environment. The determinants of strategic significance identified in Chapter 1 form the basis of a comparative analysis of South Africa's strategic significance and it has been established that with increasing national capability and the ability to perform effectively in both a regional and an international role, South Africa's strategic significance in the post-Cold War era was assured, albeit with a different emphasis.
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