Selected Macro-Economic Forecasts (as of 27th June 2017)

Selected Macro-Economic Forecasts (as of 27th June 2017)
Selected Macro-Economic Forecasts (as of 27th June 2017)
TABLE 1: REAL GDP (% ANNUAL CHANGE AT PPP EXCHANGE RATES)
World Average
Share(1) 2004–2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Forecasts
2018
2019
World (CE China estimate)
World (Official China data)
100
100
3.9
4.1
3.2
3.5
2.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.0
3.3
Advanced economies
41.2
1.6
1.9
2.1
1.6
2.0
2.0
1.7
US
Euro-zone
- Germany
- France
- Italy
15.4
12.0
3.3
2.3
1.8
1.7
0.9
1.3
1.1
-0.3
2.4
1.2
1.6
0.6
-0.3
2.6
1.9
1.5
1.2
0.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.1
0.9
2.2
2.0
2.5
1.5
1.2
2.5
1.6
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.7
0.5
Japan
UK
Canada
Australia
4.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.9
2.9
0.3
3.1
2.5
2.7
1.2
2.2
1.1
2.4
1.0
1.8
1.4
2.5
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.2
1.0
2.3
1.2
2.8
1.3
2.0
2.2
2.5
Emerging Economies(3)
58.8
6.4
4.2
3.0
3.2
4.3
4.3
4.0
Emerging Asia(3)
- China (CE estimate)(2)
- China (Official data)
- India
- S. Korea
35.8
18.3
18.3
7.6
1.6
7.8
9.9
10.3
7.6
3.8
5.6
5.8
7.3
5.2
3.3
4.4
4.2
6.9
5.5
2.6
5.0
5.1
6.7
5.7
2.8
5.7
6.0
6.5
6.3
2.5
5.1
5.0
6.5
6.5
2.0
4.5
4.5
6.3
6.5
1.8
Emerging Europe
- Russia
- Turkey
7.0
3.1
1.4
4.1
4.1
5.8
2.0
0.7
5.2
0.7
-2.8
6.1
1.5
-0.2
2.9
2.5
1.5
4.3
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.3
1.8
2.8
Latin America
- Brazil
- Mexico
7.6
2.6
1.9
4.1
4.0
2.7
0.9
0.5
2.2
-0.1
-3.8
2.6
-1.5
-3.6
2.3
1.5
1.0
2.2
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
MENA
- Saudi Arabia
- Egypt
4.7
1.4
0.9
4.8
4.5
4.6
3.0
3.6
2.2
3.8
4.1
3.9
2.2
1.4
3.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
2.5
1.5
3.8
3.0
2.0
4.5
Sub-Saharan Africa
- Nigeria
- South Africa
2.3
0.9
0.6
5.9
7.3
3.3
4.8
6.3
1.6
3.3
2.7
1.3
0.7
-2.0
0.3
3.5
2.0
2.0
3.9
3.5
1.8
4.0
4.0
1.3
(1) % of world GDP in 2017 PPP terms. (2) Estimates based on our China Activity Proxy (CAP). (3) We use CAP-derived GDP
estimates for China in aggregates for emerging Asia, emerging economies, and the world.
Selected Macro-Economic Forecasts (Continued)
TABLE 2: OTHER MAIN FORECASTS
Inflation and world trade are year average, market forecasts are end period
Latest
Average
Forecasts
th
(27 Jun.) 2004-2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Inflation
World
G7
2.5
1.9
2.8
1.9
2.4
1.5
1.8
0.3
2.0
0.8
2.4
1.9
2.4
1.8
2.5
2.0
US
Euro-zone
- Germany
- France
- Italy
Japan
UK
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.6
0.4
2.9
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.8
2.2
-0.1
2.7
1.6
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.2
2.8
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.0
1.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.7
2.1
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.6
0.5
3.0
2.2
1.2
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
2.5
2.6
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
Brazil
China
India
Russia
3.5
1.5
2.2
4.1
5.5
3.1
7.8
9.5
6.3
2.0
5.9
7.8
9.0
1.4
4.9
15.6
8.8
2.0
5.0
7.1
4.3
1.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
1.5
5.5
3.8
4.2
1.5
5.5
3.8
--
5.5
3.8
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.00-1.25
1.9
0-0.25
-0.4
-0.1
0.25
1.1
0.2
2.4
-0.2
0-0.1
0.5
-0.3
0-0.1
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.8
0.6
-0.1
1.3
2.45
6.25
9.00
10.25
6.5
10.9
13.3
3.9
8.00
17.0
11.8
2.3
6.75
11.0
14.3
2.3
6.25
10.0
13.8
3.0
6.3
8.0
8.5
3.0
7.0
6.0
8.5
3.0
7.0
6.0
9.5
World Trade(1)
Interest Rates
US (2)
Euro-zone (3)
Japan (4)
UK (5)
China (6)
India (7)
Russia (8)
Brazil (9)
0.25-0.50 0.50-0.75 1.50-1.75 2.50-2.75 2.75-3.00
(1) Volume of trade in goods. (2) Fed funds target range. (3) ECB deposit rate. (4) Interest rate on excess reserves. (5) Bank Rate. (6)
7-day reverse repo rate. (7) Repo rate. (8) 1-week repo rate. (9) Selic rate.
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