AUGUST 2014 | DiviSion of DATA, ReSeARch, AnD Policy

AUGUST 2014 | DiviSion of DATA, ReSeARch, AnD Policy
Generation
2030|AFRICA
AUGUST 2014 | Division of Data, Research, and Policy
Disclaimer
The designations in this publication do not imply an opinion on legal status of any country or territory, or of its
authorities, or the delimitation of frontiers.
For more information on this report, please contact [email protected], [email protected], or [email protected]
Comments are welcome.
For corrigenda subsequent to printing, please see www.unicef.org/publications
© UNICEF August 2014
Division of Data, Research, and Policy
ISBN: 978-92-806-4764-8
Generation
|AFRICA
2030
Child demographics in Africa
Report team
This report was prepared by Danzhen You, Lucia Hug and David Anthony, Division of Data, Research, and Policy at
UNICEF Headquarters. The report was completed with the guidance and support of Tessa Wardlaw, Associate
Director (Data and Analytics), Division of Data, Research, and Policy; Holly Newby, Chief, Data Analysis Unit, Data and
Analytics, Division of Data, Research, and Policy; George Laryea-Adjei, Deputy Director, Division of Data, Research, and
Policy; and Jeffrey O'Malley, Director, Division of Data, Research, and Policy.
Danzhen You is a Statistics and Monitoring Specialist in the Data and Analytics Section of UNICEF’s
Division of Data, Research, and Policy. Lucia Hug is a Statistics Specialist consulting with the Data and Analytics
Section. David Anthony is Chief of UNICEF’s Policy Advocacy and Coordination Unit in the same division.
Design and layout
Upasana Young
French edition
Gwen Baillet, Marc Chalamet, Angeline Hadman, Maria Janum, Laure Journaud, Florence Lesur
Acknowledgements
Special thanks to Jingxian Wu for her assistance in preparing the data analysis and to Yao Chen, Colleen Murray and
Khin Wityee Oo for their assistance in fact checking and proof reading this report, and to Anita Palathingal for copy
editing. This publication has been a collaboration between staff at UNICEF Headquarters and its two main Africa
offices in Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa respectively.
From the Eastern and Southern Africa office, thanks go to Leila Pakkala, Regional Director, Eastern and Southern
Africa; Edward Addai; James Elder; Mark Hereward; Kun Li.
From the West and Central Africa office, thanks go to Manuel Fontaine, Regional Director, West and Central Africa;
Christine Muhigana, Deputy Regional Director, West and Central Africa; Thierry Delvigne-Jean; Thi Minh Phuong Ngo.
From country offices: thanks go to Suzanne Mary Beukes; Angela Travis.
From UNICEF headquarters in New York, thanks go to Yoka Brandt, Deputy Executive Director; Geeta Rao Gupta,
Deputy Executive Director; Cynthia McCaffrey, Director and Chief of Staff; Jeffrey O'Malley, Director, Division
of Data, Research, and Policy; Paloma Escudero, Director, Division of Communication; Tessa Wardlaw, Associate
Director (Data and Analytics), Division of Data, Research, and Policy; Edward Carwardine, Deputy Director, Division of
Communication; Holly Newby, Chief, Data Analysis Unit, Data and Analytics, Division of Data, Research, and Policy;
Elizabeth Dettori; Archana Dwivedi; Martin C Evans; Priscilla Idele; Julia Krasevec; Catherine Langevin-Falcon;
Marixie Mercado; Nicholas Rees; Annette Rolfe.
The authors extend their sincere gratitude to the United Nations Population Division for providing the estimates and
projections that form the basis of the report’s analysis and for providing useful comments, and to the World Bank for
providing data on poverty.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Generation
2030|AFRICA
5......Introduction
7......Executive summary
13.....Chapter 1 | Child demographics in Africa
Total population
Child, adolescent, working-age and elderly populations
Women of reproductive age
Fertility
Births
Mortality, life expectancy and dependency
Density and urbanization
Fragility and poverty
43.....Chapter 2 | Policy issues
50.....Appendix
56.....Tables: Demographic indicators
1
AFRICA
AFRICA
United Nations Economic
Commission for Africa
(UNECA) regions
North Africa
Eastern Africa
DZAAlgeria
EGYEgypt
LBYLibya
MRTMauritania
MARMorocco
SDNSudan
TUNTunisia
BDIBurundi
COMComoros
CODDemocratic
Republic of
the Congo
DJIDjibouti
ERIEritrea
ETHEthiopia
KENKenya
MDGMadagascar
RWARwanda
SYCSeychelles
SOMSomalia
SSD South Sudan
UGAUganda
TZA United Republic
of Tanzania
Tunisia
Morocco
Algeria
Mauritania
Senegal
Cabo
Verde
Libya
Mali
Niger
Gambia
GuineaBissau
Guinea
Burkina
Faso
Liberia
West Africa
BENBenin
BFA Burkina Faso
CPV Cabo Verde
CIV Côte d'Ivoire
GMBGambia
GHAGhana
GINGuinea
GNBGuinea-Bissau
LBRLiberia
MLIMali
NERNiger
NGANigeria
SENSenegal
SLE Sierra Leone
TGOTogo
Djibouti
Nigeria
Note: The regional aggregates
follow the United Nations
Economic Commission for
Africa (UNECA) regions. The
detailed classification can be
found at http://www.uneca.org/
node/2798/.
Togo Benin
Cameroon
Ghana
Côte d'Ivoire
Sao Tome
and Principe
Gabon
Equatorial
Guinea Congo
Central
African
Republic
South Sudan
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo
Rwanda
Burundi
United
Republic
of Tanzania
Seychelles
Comoros
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Malawi
Mozambique
Madagascar
Botswana
Southern Africa
AGOAngola
BWABotswana
LSOLesotho
MWIMalawi
MUSMauritius
MOZMozambique
NAMNamibia
ZAF South Africa
SWZSwaziland
ZMBZambia
ZWEZimbabwe
Somalia
Kenya
Angola
Namibia
Ethiopia
Uganda
Central Africa
CMRCameroon
CAF Central African Republic
TCDChad
COGCongo
GNQ Equatorial Guinea
GABGabon
STP Sao Tome and Principe
Eritrea
Sudan
Chad
Sierra Leone
2
Egypt
Mauritius
Swaziland
South Africa
Lesotho
Note on maps: All maps included in this publication are stylized and not to scale. They
do not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or area or the
delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and
the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei
area has not yet been determined.
Source for page 3: UNICEF analysis based on United Nations, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population
Prospects: The 2012 Revision (UN WPP), United Nations, New York, 2013.
AFRICA
CHILD Population under 18 by generation
GENERATION
2100
BDI
SOM
GIN
MLI
CMR
CIV
MDG
SEN
UGA
GHA
EGY
DZA
BFA
MOZ
NER
UGA
2050
SDN
NGA
CMR
ZWE
COD
ERI
NER
BEN
SLE
COG
ZWE
TGO
BDI
GIN
ETH
MDG
MOZ
EGY
BEN
MWI
BFA
BDI
UGA
ZAF
MAR
NER
SSD
AGO
RWA
TZA
TCD
GHA
KEN
ZMB
BEN
KEN
SSD
RWA
MOZ
SOM
MLI
RWA
AGO
SEN
EGY
TZA
ETH
CIV
GENERATION
ZMB
ZAF
DZA
TCD
GHA
COD
MWI
KEN
MAR
MAR
SDN
NGA
LBR
TGO COG
TCD
GIN
CIV
TGO
NGA
CMR
SDN COG
COD
GENERATION
2030
ZMB SEN
MLI
SOM
MDG
AGO
ETH
SSD
TZA
SLE
ERI
ZAF
BFA
ZWE
MWI
2100
DZA
MAR
GHA
NER
2015
CMR
2050
GIN
2030
ZWE
EGY
UGA
CIV
GENERATION
MOZ BDI
KEN
TCD
AFRICA
BEN
COD
NGA
MLI
MDG
ETH
TZA
BFA
DZA
SDN
SOM
AGO
SSD
SEN
1980
1980
RWA
ZAF
MWI
EGY
GENERATION
2015
SLE
ZMB SEN
DZA
AGO
ZAF
NGA
TZA
1950
KEN
UGA
SDN
ETH
COD
The size of each circle is
proportional to the population
of children under 18.
MAR
EGY
GENERATION
1950
NGA COD
TZA ETH
DZA
ZAF
3
© UNICEF/ETHA2013_00436/Jiro Ose
Introduction
4
Generation 2030 | Africa
Introduction
“It can be said that there are four basic and primary
things that the mass of people in a society wish for:
to live in a safe environment, to be able to work and
provide for themselves, to have access to good public
health and to have sound educational opportunities
for their children.” These words belong to Nelson
Mandela, Africa’s most revered leader in modern times,
and reflect his hopes for his continent’s over 1 billion
inhabitants. Until relatively recently, much of Africa has
been among the economically least developed and
least densely populated places on earth, replete with
villages and rural communities. But Africa is changing
rapidly, in its economy, trade and investment; in
climate change; in conflict and stability; in urbanization,
migration patterns and most of all in demographics.
Demographics are key to Africa’s increasing centrality to
the global development and growth agenda. In particular,
the demographics of Africa’s children are experiencing a
shift on a scale perhaps unprecedented in human history.
Consider this: on current trends, almost 2 billion babies
will be born in Africa in the next 35 years. Over the
same period Africa’s under-18 population will increase
by two thirds, reaching almost 1 billion by mid-century;
and close to half of the world population of children will
be African by the end of the 21st century.
Among the most surprising findings of this report’s
predecessor — then entitled Generation 2025 and Beyond*
released in November 2012 — was the massive shift in the
world’s child population towards Africa in recent decades.
Since then, revised global population projections from the
United Nations Population Division, based on the latest
version of World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision
released in 2013, indicate an even stronger move in global
child demographics towards Africa.
Our previous reporting of one in every three children in
the world living in Africa by 2050 has proven to be an
underestimate: the population revisions now indicate
that by mid-century the continent will be home to
around 41 per cent of all of the world’s births, 40 per
cent of all global under-fives, and 37 per cent of all
children (under-18s).
The Generation 2030 project — renamed to reflect the
end date of the post-2015 agenda that is beginning to
emerge and to focus on child demographic shifts in
the years running up to 2030 and beyond — provides
key data and analysis, and raises policy issues that will
foster debate and discussion and influence decisions in
the coming years.
This report, focusing exclusively on Africa, has two key
components. Chapter 1 provides an in-depth analysis
of child demographic trends in Africa, for the region
as a whole, by subregion, and country-by-country, and
contextualizes some of these trends. Chapter 2 seeks
to raise some key policy questions — though by no
means exhaustively — on the implications of Africa’s
child demographics for the continent itself and for the
world.
The authors acknowledge that the actual demographic
trends may differ from the projections due to policy
interventions and changes in underlying assumptions.
For example, we are aware that different rates of
economic growth among nations may alter the
composition of countries classified as low-income,
middle-income and high-income; or that policies may
change the rates of fertility or urbanization. Nonetheless,
we consider that the key points highlighted in this
review of demographic trends have important
implications for global, regional and national actions to
help realize the rights of all of the continent’s children
in the 21st century, foster inclusive and sustainable
development, and set the ground for a more peaceful,
stable and prosperous Africa.
* You, D. and Anthony, D., ‘Generation 2025 and Beyond’. Occasional Papers,
No. 1, UNICEF, 2012.
5
© UNICEF/ETHA_2014_00189/Jiro Ose
6
Generation 2030 | Africa:
Executive summary
Generation 2030 | Africa
Generation 2030 | Africa
Executive summary
Four in 10 of the world’s people will be African by the end of this century
•
•
•
Africa has experienced a marked increase in its population in last few decades. Its current population
is five times its size in 1950. And the continent’s rapid population expansion is set to continue, with its
inhabitants doubling from 1.2 billion to 2.4 billion between 2015 and 2050, and eventually reaching 4.2
billion by 2100.
The future of humanity is increasingly African. More than half the projected 2.2 billion rise in the world
population in 2015-2050 is expected to take place in Africa, even though the continent’s population
growth rate will slow. On current trends, within 35 years, 1 in every 4 people will be African, rising to
4 in 10 people by the end of the century. Back in 1950, only 9 among 100 of the world’s number of
inhabitants were African.
With its inhabitants set to soar, Africa will become increasingly crowded, with its population density
projected to increase from 8 persons per square kilometre in 1950 to 39 in 2015 and to about 80 by
mid-century.
A billion children will live in Africa by mid-century
•
•
•
In 2050, around 41 per cent of the world’s births, 40 per cent of all under-fives, 37 per cent of all children
under 18 and 35 per cent of all adolescents will be African — higher than previously projected. In 1950, only
about 10 per cent of the world’s births, under-fives, under-18s and adolescents were African.
The population of Africa’s under-fives will swell by 51 per cent from 179 million in 2015 to 271 million
in 2050 and its overall child population (under-18s) will increase by two thirds from 547 million in 2015
to almost 1 billion by mid-century.
It is projected that 1.1 billion children under 18 will be living in Africa by 2100, accounting for almost half
(47 per cent) of the world population of children at that time.
Africa has the highest child dependency ratio in the world
•
•
•
More than any other region, Africa’s children lie at the heart of its demographic and social transition.
Today, almost 47 per cent of Africans are children under 18. In 15 African countries, more than half of
the total population are children under 18.
Africa has the highest child dependency ratio — 73 children under age 15 per 100 persons of working
age in 2015, close to double the global average. This ratio is projected to decline steadily as fertility
rates ebb and the working-age population expands, but will still remain far higher than other regions.
In contrast, Africa’s old-age dependency ratio (defined as elderly person 65 years and older per 100
working-age persons) is expected to increase slowly from a very low level of 6 in 2015 to 9 in 2050 and
climb to 22 in 2100. These ratios will be far, far lower than anywhere else.
7
Almost 2 billion babies will be born in Africa between 2015 and 2050 due to high
fertility rates and increasing number of women of reproductive age
•
•
•
•
Continued high rates of fertility and an increasing number of women of reproductive age are the
driving force behind Africa’s surge in births and children, although divergences have appeared between
countries and communities within countries in the region.
Each African woman on average will have 4.7 children in 2010-2015 — far above the global average of
2.5. Niger has the highest total fertility rate of any country, with an average of 7.5 children per woman
in 2015. In total, 15 African countries will have an average fertility rate of 5 children or more per woman
in 2015. In the coming decades, Africa’s fertility rates are expected to drop — in some cases sharply —
but will stay well above the rest of the world.
Africa’s population surge has swelled its ranks of women of reproductive age (15–49), from 54 million
in 1950 to 280 million in 2015; on current trends, this figure will further increase to 407 million in 2030
and to 607 million in 2050.
In 1950, only 11 million African babies were born. This number has increased to more than 40 million in
2015 and will continue to expand within the next 35 years. By mid-century, 41 per cent of the world’s
births will take place in Africa, and almost 2 billion births will take place on this continent alone over
the next 35 years or so. The annual number of births in Africa is only estimated to decline towards the
end of the century.
Child survival has improved in Africa, but the continent still accounts for half of all
child deaths, and this figure is set to rise to around 70 per cent by mid-century
•
•
There has been considerable progress on child survival in Africa since 1990 and particularly since the
year 2000. But faster progress in other regions has left Africa with the highest concentration of global
under-five and under-18 deaths of any region.
In Africa, one in every 11 children born still dies before their fifth birthday, a rate 14 times greater than
in the average in high-income countries. The continent currently accounts for more than half of the
world’s child deaths. This share will continue to rise to around 70 per cent by the middle of the century,
given the continent’s current mortality, fertility and demographic levels and trends, and assumptions of,
continued rates of progress elsewhere.
Life expectancy for Africa’s children has risen sharply in recent decades but is still
shorter than the global average; within 20 years, Africa will have its first generation
of children who can expect to reach pensionable age
•
•
•
8
Life is still shorter in Africa than anywhere else on earth. In the 1950s, life expectancy at birth in Africa was
less than 40 years — about 30 years shorter than in the developed regions of the world at that time.
Today, Africans’ average life expectancy at birth is 58 years, a considerable gain but still a full 12 years
shorter than the global average.
By 2035, Africa as a continent will have its first generation of children that can expect to reach the pensionable
age of 65 years, as life expectancy at birth by this year will rise above 65 years for the first time.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Continuous urbanization will most likely lead to the majority of Africa’s people and
children living in cities in less than 25 years
•
•
•
The image of Africa as a rural continent is fast changing amid rapid urban growth. Currently, 40 per cent
of Africa's population lives in cities. The past few decades have seen a frenetic pace of urbanization,
considering that in 1950 just 14 per cent, and in 1980 just 27 per cent of the continental population was
classified as living in urban areas.
By late 2030s, Africa is set to become a continent with more population living in urban than in rural
areas. On current trends, by mid-century almost 60 per cent of Africa's population will live in cities.
Africa’s urban children are increasingly likely to grow up in the continent’s rapidly expanding megacities
with 10 million or more inhabitants. Lagos, Africa's second biggest urban agglomeration, will see its
population swell by 1.8 times over the next 15 years from 13 million in 2015 to 24 million in 2030, while
the populace of Al-Qahirah (Cairo), currently in first place, will expand from 19 million to 25 million over
the same period.
Today three in 10 of Africa’s children are living in fragile and conflict-affected contexts
•
•
Conflict and fragility continue to undermine human rights and social and economic progress in a
number of African countries. Of the 34 countries classified by the World Bank in 2014 as having fragile
and conflict-affected contexts, 20 are African.
Around one fourth of the continent's population resides in these 20 countries, which also account for
almost three in 10 African children under 18, totalling 143 million. Almost 3 in every 10 births in Africa, and
one third of all under-five deaths in Africa, occur in countries with fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
Four in 10 of Africans and almost half of sub-Saharan Africa's populace live below
the international poverty line of US$1.25 per day
•
•
About 60 per cent of the African population — and 70 per cent of sub-Saharan Africa -- survives on less
than US$2 per day. In the two subregions of Eastern Africa and West Africa, about three quarters of
the population lives on less than US$2 per day.
Extreme poverty is also rife on the continent; around 40 per cent of Africa's population, and almost half
(48 per cent) of sub-Saharan Africa live on less US$1.25 per day.
Divergences in fertility rates are marked in sub-Saharan Africa, with disparities
highest in West and Central Africa between richest and poorest
•
•
Fertility rates are highest among the poorest African communities. In the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, for example, women in the lowest wealth quintile have on average 7.4 children, 3.2 children
more than women in the wealthiest quintile.
Women in the poorest quintile in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria and the United Republic of Tanzania have on average 2-4 children more than women in the
wealthiest quintile. Similar trends are prevalent in other countries.
9
Special attention is required for Nigeria, which is the country with the largest
increase in absolute numbers of both births and child population
•
•
At the country level, the greatest number of births in Africa takes place in Nigeria; by 2015 one fifth of the
continent’s births will take place in that country alone, accounting for 5 per cent of all global births. From
2015 to 2030, 136 million births will take place in Nigeria ­ — 19 per cent of all African babies and 6 per cent
of the global total. By 2050, Nigeria alone will account for almost one tenth of all births in the world.
In absolute terms, Nigeria is projected to add from 2031 to 2050 an additional 224 million babies (21 per
cent of the births in Africa and 8 per cent of all births in the world).
Niger, Mali and other smaller African nations with high fertility rates and large
relative projected increases in child and total population in the world also require
particular attention and investment
•
•
•
At the country level, in 2015 the highest fertility in the world is estimated in Niger, with 7.5 children per
woman, followed by Mali with 6.8 children per woman. In 2050, their fertility levels are projected to
remain the highest in Africa at 4.8 for Niger and 4.0 for Mali.
Niger is also expected to have the largest percentage increase in the number of births — more than
doubling from 1 million in 2015 to 2.5 million babies in 2050.
Niger is projected to have the largest relative increase in its total population — its population in 2050
(69 million) will be more than triple the population in 2015 (19 million). In 2100, 204 million people are
projected to live in Niger.
Investing in children will be paramount for Africa to realize the rights of its
burgeoning child population and reap a potential demographic dividend
•
•
•
10
Almost 2 billion babies will be born in Africa within 35 years and almost 1 billion children, nearly 40
per cent of the world’s total — will live in Africa by mid-century. If investments are made in expanded
and improved health care, education and protection and participation mechanisms, these 1 billion
children and their predecessors, the children of today and tomorrow, have the potential to transform
the continent, breaking centuries old cycles of poverty and inequity.
Moreover, the continent could reap the vast potential economic benefits experienced previously in
other regions and countries from its changing age structure, with lower dependency ratios and an
expanded labour force. But reaping the demographic dividend will heavily depend on investing now in
human capital. Supporting Africa’s poor families to do this for their children will be paramount if Africa
is to take full advantage of its demographic transition in the coming decades.
An opposite scenario is also possible. Unless investment in the continent’s children is prioritized, the
sheer burden of population expansion has the potential to undermine attempts to eradicate poverty
through economic growth, and worse, could result in rising poverty and marginalization of many if
economic growth were to falter. Without equitable investment in children, prioritizing the poorest
and most disadvantaged in the coming decades, Africa also risks repeating the mistakes of other
continents and experiencing ever-widening disparities among its children even as its economy prospers,
with negative implications for human rights, employment, sustained growth and political stability.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Investing in girls and women, especially in reproductive health, education, and
preventing child marriage is key to Africa’s demographic transition
•
•
•
•
Demographic trends are not inevitable; most are policy responsive. A discourse must emerge on how
to extend access to greater reproductive health services to Africa’s families — including culturally
sensitive reproductive health education and services for women and particularly adolescent females to
reduce the unmet need in family planning.
Investing in and empowering girls and young women will be imperative to slow adolescent fertility
rates, and build an Africa fit for all. Expanded programmes to end child marriage (defined as a union in
which one or both parties are under age 18), which is highly prevalent across the continent, must also
be included as part of efforts to address Africa’s demographic transition. Child marriage is a determining
factor in sustaining elevated rates of adolescent pregnancy, high lifetime fertility rates and exclusion
from education.
Prioritizing girls’ education in Africa will be paramount. Studies clearly show that educated women delay
their first pregnancy, and space their births more widely than women who lack education, and are more
likely to ensure that their children go to and stay in school.
Empowerment of girls and women in Africa must go beyond the statistics, however, to the roots of
discrimination, marginalization and violence that undermine their rights. Cultural, social, economic and
political barriers that perpetuate the disempowerment of women must be urgently addressed if Africa
is to manage its demographic transition and reap the full rewards of prosperity that a demographic
dividend can bring.
National development plans must take greater account of projected shifts in Africa’s
child population and support better data systems
•
•
•
With many African countries set to see unprecedented absolute increases in their child and overall
populations, national development planning and systems strengthening must be adapted and sharpened to
prepare for these demographic shifts. Demographic analysis at national and particularly at the subnational
levels must become a much more integral component of development programming in Africa.
Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems will be essential for strengthening development
planning at the national and subnational levels. Without accurate demographic data and analysis, it will
be difficult to plan adequately for the required increases in essential services that Africa’s burgeoning
child population will require.
UNICEF considers it imperative that a discourse takes place on Africa’s child demographics, poverty and
inequity and rights, and that all the many stakeholders that will help to determine the continent’s future,
including governments and donors, the private sector, civil society organizations, religious leaders, and
children themselves, be included and have a voice. It is time to acknowledge our shared responsibility
to the future of Africa and take the policy decisions required for all Africa’s children, present and future,
to finally realize all their rights.
11
© UNICEF/NYHQ2006-2610/Michael Kamber
1| Child demographics in Africa
12
Generation 2030 | Africa
1| Child demographics in Africa
Africa, already the world’s second most populous continent with over 1
billion inhabitants, is experiencing a demographic shift unprecedented
in its scale and swiftness. Consider this: In the next 35 years, 1.8 billion
babies will be born in Africa; the continent’s population will double in
size; and its under-18 population will increase by two thirds to reach
almost 1 billion.
Today more than 7 billion people are living in the world and on current projections there will be 11 billion by the end
of the 21st century. Africa's population will continue to grow significantly while all the other continents will see a
relatively smaller increase or decline in their current numbers of births, total population and child population. Africa
is also ageing at a far slower pace than the rest of the world, and could potentially reap a demographic dividend as
its labour force expands at a faster rate than its dependent population. By the end of the century, Africa is projected
to have almost quadrupled its population to over 4 billion, and will be home to almost 40 per cent of humanity.
Understanding this demographic transition and putting in place the necessary policies to address its challenges and
opportunities will be key to securing an Africa fit for its children. This chapter analyses the projected levels and trends
in Africa’s population, fertility, births, mortality, population density and urbanization, setting the scene for a discussion
of key policy issues in the next chapter. The analysis is based mostly on the latest estimates provided by the United
Nations Population Division1 using the medium fertility variant; other sources have also been used where applicable.
Total population
Despite slowing growth rates, Africa’s
population will double by 2050
The latest projections by the United Nations Population
Division indicate a sharp increase in Africa’s inhabitants
through the rest of the century, even as population
growth rates continue to slow. Africa's population will
double in just 35 years to 2.4 billion in 2050, and is
projected to eventually hit 4.2 billion by 2100 (Figure 1).
About half a billion will be added already by 2030. More
than half of the 2.2 billion projected rise in the world's
population between 2015 and 2050 will take place on
this continent alone. As a result of changing global
population dynamics, and with Asia’s population growth
set to slow markedly, Africa will increase its share of the
world population to almost 25 per cent by mid-century
and 39 per cent by the end of the century, up from just
9 per cent in 1950 and 16 per cent in 2015.
1 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2013.
13
FIG. 1
Africa's population will double from 2015 to 2050
Total population by region, 1950–2100
A. Total population
B. Share of total population
6
100
Population (in billions)
5
100
Rest of the world
75
4
75
Africa
3
% 50
2
1
25
0
1950
1980
Africa
2010
Asia
2040
2070
50 %
Asia
25
2100
0
1950
Rest of the world
1980
2010
2040
2070
0
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision (UN WPP), United
Nations, New York, 2013.
FIG. 2
West and Eastern Africa will be the main drivers of population growth, with West Africa becoming
the most populous region in Africa by 2067
Population in Africa by UNECA region, 1950–2100
B. Share of total population
A. Total population
100
2,000
North Africa
1,600
Population (in millions)
100
Central Africa
75
75
1,200
Southern Africa
% 50
800
50 %
Eastern Africa
400
25
25
0
1950
1980
West Africa
North Africa
2010
2040
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
2070
West Africa
2100
Southern Africa
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
0
Note: The regional aggregates follow the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) regions. The detailed classification can be found at http://www.uneca.org/node/2798/.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
14
Generation 2030 | Africa
By mid-century, two thirds of Africa’s population
will live in either Eastern Africa or West Africa
The African population is concentrated mostly in Eastern Africa
and West Africa, which together account for more than 60 per
cent of the continent’s inhabitants today. Of the 1.2 billion African
inhabitants estimated for 2015, around 33 per cent live in Eastern
Africa, 30 per cent in West Africa, 19 per cent in North Africa, 14
per cent in Southern Africa and 4 per cent in Central Africa. By
the middle of the century, West Africa and Eastern Africa will be
home to more than 800 million inhabitants each, doubling their
present totals of under 400 million, and will together account for
more than two thirds of Africa’s inhabitants (Figure 2). Similarly,
Southern Africa and Central Africa’s populations will approximately
double, to around 300 million and 100 million respectively. Based
on current trends, the four sub-Saharan African regions will
continue to see increases in their population totals through the
rest of the century; only North Africa will see its population begin
to level out towards the latter part of the century.
In just 35 years, Nigeria’s population will be 2.5
times its current size, reaching 440 million
Among Africa’s 54 countries, Nigeria has by far the largest
population with 184 million inhabitants, accounting for 16 per
cent of Africa’s population in 2015 (Figure 5A). Nigeria will
contribute to more than a fifth of the total growth of the African
population between 2015 and 2050. By 2100, almost 1 billion
people (914 million) are projected to live in Nigeria alone.
The next three most populous countries currently are Ethiopia (99
million), Egypt (85 million) and the Democratic Republic of Congo
(71 million) (Figure 5A). Ten countries will contribute massively
to the region’s immense population increase in absolute
terms between 2015 and 2050: Nigeria (257 million additional
inhabitants); Ethiopia (+ 89 million); Democratic Republic of the
Congo (+ 84 million); the United Republic ofTanzania (+ 77 million);
Uganda (+ 64 million); Kenya and Niger (both + 50 million); Sudan
(+ 38 million); Egypt (+ 37 million) and Mozambique (+ 33 million).
Niger has the largest percentage increase in
population among African countries
In terms of percentage rises, the largest increases will be
recorded in Niger (260 per cent), whose population will rise
from 19 million to 69 million from 2015 to 2050. By 2100,
204 million people are projected to live in Niger. The other
largest relative increases after Niger for the 2015-2050 period
are projected for Zambia (185 per cent); Mali (178 per cent);
Uganda (159 per cent); the United Republic of Tanzania,
Gambia and Burundi (all 147 per cent); Chad (146 per cent);
Somalia (143 per cent) and Nigeria (140 per cent).
FIG. 3
The absolute number of children in Africa will increase, while their share among the total population in Africa
will decline to almost 40% in 2050
Population in Africa by age group, 1950–2100
A. Population
B. Share of population
Population (in billions)
2.5
100
100
Older population (age 60 and over)
2.0
Adult population (age 18 − 59)
75
75
1.5
1.0
% 50
0.5
0.0
25
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
50 %
Child population (age 5 − 17)
25
Child population (under age 5)
Child population (under age 5)
Child population (age 5 − 17)
0
Adult population (age 18 − 59)
Older population (age 60 and over)
1950
0
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
15
FIG. 4
The child population under 18 in Africa will increase by two thirds to almost 1 billion from 2015–2050,
and Africa will become home to almost half the world's children by 2100
Children under 18, 1950-2100
A. Number of children under 18, by region
B. Share of children under 18, by region
1,600
100
100
Rest of the world
Population (in millions)
1,400
1,200
75
75
1,000
Africa
800
% 50
600
50 %
400
200
Asia
25
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
0
Africa
Asia
1950
Rest of the world
C. Number of children under 18 in Africa, by UNECA region
1980
2010
2040
2070
0
2100
D. Share of children under 18 in Africa, by UNECA region
500
Population (in millions)
25
100
Central Africa
100
Southern Africa
400
75
300
200
% 50
North Africa
75
Eastern Africa
50 %
100
25
25
0
1950
1980
West Africa
North Africa
2010
2040
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
2070
West Africa
2100
Southern Africa
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
0
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
© UNICEF/MLWB2006-00070/Pirozzi
16
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG. 5
Nigeria will continue to increase its share in the African population; by 2050, one fifth of children
under 18 in Africa will live in Nigeria
Top 10 countries in Africa with largest total population and most children under 18, 2015 and 2050
A. Total population, in millions (% of Africa)
2015
2050
Nigeria, 184
(16%)
Nigeria, 440 (18%)
Ethiopia, 99
(8%)
Egypt, 85 (7%)
Other countries,
453 (39%)
Other countries,
945 (40%)
Ethiopia, 188 (8%)
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo,
155 (6%)
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo, 71 (6%)
South Africa, 53
(5%)
Sudan, 40 (3%)
Uganda, 40 (3%)
Kenya, 47
(4%)
Algeria, 41 (3%)
United Republic
of Tanzania, 52
(4%)
South Africa, 63
(3%)
Niger, 69 (3%)
United Republic of
Tanzania, 129 (5%)
Sudan, 77 (3%)
Kenya, 97 (4%)
Egypt, 122 (5%)
Uganda, 104 (4%)
B. Children under 18, in millions (% of Africa)
2015
2050
By 2021 the child population of
Nigeria will be 109 million —
the same as the child population of Africa in 1950
Nigeria, 93 (17%)
Other countries,
216 (39%)
Nigeria, 191 (21%)
Other countries,
343 (38%)
Ethiopia, 48 (9%)
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo, 36 (7%)
Egypt, 31 (6%)
Mozambique,
14 (3%)
South Africa,
18 (3%)
Sudan, 19 (3%)
United Republic of
Tanzania, 27 (5%)
Uganda, 22 (4%)
Kenya, 23 (4%)
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo, 63 (7%)
Ethiopia, 58 (6%)
United Republic
of Tanzania,
54 (6%)
Uganda, 44 (5%)
Kenya, 36 (4%)
Mozambique,
25 (3%)
Sudan, 27 (3%)
Egypt, 32 (4%)
Niger, 36 (4%)
Note: The first number cited for each country refers to the child population in millions, the second to its share of the African population.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
17
Child, adolescent, working-age and
elderly populations
While the African populace has grown in absolute numbers from
1950 to 2015, its overall age structure has not changed considerably.
Children under 18 years, and the adult population from age 18
to 59, have remained in similar proportions, accounting for some
47–48 per cent each in 2015. Persons aged 60 and above currently
represent just 5 per cent of the African population (Figure 3).
However, this composition will begin to shift: slowly but steadily at
first, and then more rapidly later on in the century, as the growth in
the continent’s child population slows slightly and life expectancy
for Africa’s inhabitants rises. From 2015 to 2050, all three age
groups are projected to continue to grow, but the expansion rate
will be steeper in the age group 18–59 and particularly steep in the
age group 60 and over (Figure 3).
The African population is much younger than the
rest of the world
Today, as in 1950, 50 per cent of the African population is
under 20 years of age, while globally the median age of the
world's population has risen from about 24 years in 1950 to
about 30 years in 2015. By 2050, the African population will be
older than it is today with a median age around 25 years, but
will remain well below the global average of 36 years.
In 2015, in 15 African countries, more than half of the
population will be under 18. These countries include Niger (57
per cent); Uganda and Chad (both 55 per cent); Mali, Angola
and Somalia (all 54 per cent); Zambia (53 per cent); Gambia,
Burkina Faso, Mozambique and Malawi (all 52 per cent); the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, the United Republic of
Tanzania, Burundi and Nigeria (all 51 per cent).
Africa’s under-five population will swell by 51
per cent by 2050, and its under-18s will increase
by two thirds to almost 1 billion. The number of
adolescents will grow by 83 per cent to almost
half a billion. By 2100, Africa will be home to
almost half the world’s children under 18
In 1950, only 39 million children under 5, 109 million children
under 18 and 50 million adolescents lived in Africa. In 2015, these
numbers increased to 179 million, 547 million and 257 million
respectively. Africa's child population is projected to continue to
burgeon. Over the next 15 years until 2030 the child population
under 5 will grow by 22 per cent to 220 million, the child
18
population under 18 will increase by 30 per cent to 711 million and
the adolescent population will rise by 39 per cent to 356 million.
From 2015 to 2050, the continent’s under-five population will
increase by 51 per cent, or 91 million, rising to 271 million. Over
the same period, its under-18 population will expand by two
thirds, to almost 1 billion children (909 million), while the number
of adolescents (10–19 years) will swell by 83 per cent from 257
million to 470 million. With child populations set to decline in the
rest of the world’s regions, by the end of the century there will be
an even greater concentration of the world’s under-18s in Africa,
at 1.1 billion, almost half (47 per cent) of the global total (Figure 4).
Nigeria will see the largest absolute increase in its under-18 and
under-five populations, both doubling over the time period from
2015 to 2050. By 2050, one fifth of Africa’s children under 18 will
live in Nigeria (Figure 5). Other notable increases in both age
groups will be experienced by the United Republic of Tanzania,
the Democratic Republic of Congo and Niger (Figure 6).
Africa will eventually begin to age in the second
half of the 21st century, with almost 800 million
elderly persons living there in 2100, up from just
64 million today
Africa’s inhabitants aged 60 years and older will grow from
the current 64 million to 211 million in 2050, an absolute
increase of 148 million and a relative increase of 232 per cent.
By 2100, it is projected that 794 million Africans will be aged
60 and over. Even with this dramatic pace of ageing, Africa
will still be by far the most youthful continent in the world
throughout the 21st century. The share of older persons in the
African populace will rise from 5 per cent currently to 9 per
cent in 2050 and to 19 per cent by 2100, but this will still be
far smaller a share than any other continent or region.
Africa will take over from Asia as the continent
with the most children in 2067
Since 1950, more than half of the world’s child population
have lived, and still live, in Asia. But since the beginning of
the 21st century, Asia’s share in the global child population
has steadily declined. By 2015, 55 per cent of under-fives,
57 per cent of under-18s and 58 per cent of adolescents are
estimated to live in Asia. These shares are set to fall further by
about 10 percentage points respectively by mid-century, and
reach 37 per cent, 38 per cent and 38 per cent respectively by
its end (Figure 4).
Generation 2030 | Africa
The number of children under 18 in Nigeria is projected to increase from 93 million in 2015 to 191 million
in 2050, an increase of 98 million, or 105%, from 2015 to 2050
FIG. 6
Top 10 countries in Africa with largest absolute and percentage increases in children under 18 from 2015 to 2050
A. By largest absolute increases, child population in millions
Nigeria 93 Nigeria 93
+98
United Republic
United Republic
+28 27
of Tanzania 27
of Tanzania
Democratic Republic
Democratic
Republic
36
+26 36
of the Congo of the Congo
+28
Niger 11 +25
Niger
11 +25 (226%)
(226%)
+98
Zambia 8 +12
Zambia
(146%)
8 +12 (146%)
Mali 9 +12Mali
(138%)
9 +12 (138%)
+26
Burundi 6 +6
Burundi
(107%)6 +6 (107%)
Niger 11 +25Niger 11 +25
Nigeria 93 Nigeria 93
Uganda 22 Uganda
+22 22 +22
Uganda 22 Uganda
22 +22 (99%)
+22 (99%)
Mali 9 +12Mali 9 +12
Gambia 1 +1Gambia
(98%) 1 +1 (98%)
Zambia 8 +12
Zambia 8 +12
(97%) 6 +6 (97%)
Somalia 6 +6
Somalia
Mozambique Mozambique
14 +11
14 +11
2015
+98 (105%) +98 (105%)
United Republic
United
+28 (103%)
27Republic
27 +28 (103%)
of Tanzania of Tanzania
Kenya 23 +13
Kenya 23 +13
Ethiopia 48 Ethiopia+1048
B. By largest percentage increases, child population in millions (% increase)
+10
Increase
from
2015 to
2050
2015
Increase
from
2015 to 2050
(92%) 9 +8 (92%)
Malawi 9 +8Malawi
2015
Increase
from
2015 to
2050
2015
Increase
from
2015 to 2050
Note: The first number cited for each country refers to the population in 2015, the second to the increase from 2015 to 2050. Together they represent the population in 2050.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
In contrast to Asia’s dwindling share of the world’s child
population, Africa’s share has risen rapidly since 1950 when
the continent was home to 12 per cent of the world’s underfives, 11 per cent of under-18s and 10 per cent of adolescents.
By 2015, Africa is estimated to be home to 27 per cent of the
world’s under-fives, 24 per cent of its under-18s and 22 per
cent of its adolescents. Based on current projections, 40 per
cent of the world’s under-fives, 37 per cent of under-18s and
35 per cent of the adolescent population will live in Africa
by 2050.
© UNICEF-NYHQ2014-0707-Eseibo
19
FIG. 7
Africa’s population of women of reproductive age is projected to more than double between 2015 and 2050
Women of reproductive age by region, 1950–2100
A. Number of women aged 15–49
B. Share of women aged 15–49
100
100
1.5
Population (in billions)
Rest of the world
75
1.0
75
Africa
% 50
0.5
25
50 %
Asia
25
0.0
1950
1980
Rest of the world
2010
2040
Asia
2070
2100
Africa
0
1950
0
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
Women of reproductive age
Fertility
By mid-century, the number of women of
reproductive age in Africa will more than double,
in contrast to Asia, whose numbers of women of
reproductive age are shrinking
Africa’s fertility rates will continue their downward
trend, but still remain far above global averages
The number of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in
Africa in the year 2015 (280 million) will be more than five times
its level in 1950. This total is projected to increase further to
407 million in 2030 and then to 607 million in 2050, reaching
almost 1 billion (991 million) by the end of the century (Figure
7). Contrast this to Asia, where the total number of women
of reproductive age rose from 333 million in 1950 to 1.1 billion
in 2015, and will stabilize around 1.1 billion before declining to
910 million by the end of the century.
In addition, Africa’s share of the world population of women of
reproductive age is set to grow staggeringly quickly. Whereas
in 1950, 9 per cent of all women aged 15–49 were African, this
share will rise to 15 per cent in 2015 and again to 28 per cent in
2050, ending the century at 44 per cent of the global total. Asia’s
share, which was 53 per cent of the global total in 1950, will
decline from 61 per cent in 2015 to 52 per cent in 2050 and reach
40 per cent in 2100. In contrast, the rest of the world, which in
1950 held 38 per cent of women of reproductive age, will see
this share shrink steadily to just 16 per cent by 2100.
20
Africa’s average fertility rate is in decline, and has been for
decades. But its rate of decline is slow and the continent’s
fertility rates remains far higher than anywhere else in the
world. On current trends, this trend will continue at least
until mid-century. Fertility in Africa will drop from around 4.7
children per woman in 2010–2015 to 3.8 in 2025–2030, and
to 3.1 by 2045–2050, and further decline to 2.1 children per
woman by the end of the century (Figure 8).
On the African continent, fertility is highest in West Africa,
with an estimated average rate of 5.6 children per woman for
the period 2010–2015, followed by Central Africa and Eastern
Africa (both 5.1), Southern Africa (4.0) and North Africa (3.1).
In both North Africa and Southern Africa, the average fertility
rates began to decline in the late 1960s, but it was not until
the late 1980s that fertility in Eastern Africa, Western Africa
and Central Africa began to drop after having increased from
1950 onwards (Figure 8).
For all regions, fertility levels are projected to continue to
decline steadily over the remainder of the century (Figure
8). By 2050, all African’s subregions, with the exception of
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG. 8
Fertility levels in Africa remain much higher than the global average
A. Total fertility in Africa and the world, 1950–2100
B. Total fertility by UNECA region, 1950–2100
8
Children per woman
World
Children per woman
Africa
6.6
7
6.2
5.0
4.7
4.1
3.4
3.1
2.4
5
4
3
2
1
2.2
2.1 2.0
19
50
-1
95
5
19
70
-1
97
5
19
90
-1
99
5
20
10
-2
01
5
20
30
-2
03
5
20
50
-2
05
5
20
70
-2
07
5
20
90
-2
09
5
2.5
6
1950-1955 1985-1990 2010-2015 2020-2025 2045-2050 2095-2100
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
Southern Africa
North Africa
Africa
West Africa
World
Fertility declines start for North and Southern Africa
Fertility declines start for Central, Eastern, and West Africa
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
FIG. 9
In 15 countries, total fertility is at 5 or more children per woman in 2015
B. Top 15 countries in Africa with highest total
fertility, 2015 and 2050
A. Total fertility in countries in Africa, 2015
Children per woman
Children per woman
2
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.7
4.5
2.2
5.7
4.8
7.5
6.8
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.6
4.3
6.0
4.5
5.4
4.7
3.7 4.5
3.3
5.9
3.9
4.7
4.2
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.0
4.3
6.4
5.7
4.2
4.3
5.9
5.7
2.1
5.1
4.6
5.7
Note: This map is stylized and not to scale.
It does not reflect a position by UNICEF on
the legal status of any country or area or the
delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and
the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been
determined. The final status of the Abyei area
has not yet been determined.
5.2
5.6
3.3
2.9
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
5.0
4.4
1.5
2.5
3.2
2.3
2.9
Note: The red or grey bar shows the fertility rate in 2015, the
dashed yellow line shows the projected fertility rate in 2050.
21
FIG. 10
The poorest countries and households tend to have the highest fertility
A. Total fertility in African countries by national income, 2015 and 2050
8
Children per woman, 2050
7
Note: The plot shows the fertility levels in 2015 and
the projected fertility levels in 2050. Values below the
diagonal indicate that the fertility is projected to decline
over the period from 2015 to 2050 while values above the
diagonal indicate an increase.
6
5
4
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
The national income classifications follow the World Bank
income classification, 2014.
3
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Children per woman, 2015
Low-income
Lower-middle-income
Upper-middle-income
High-income
B. Total fertility by wealth quintiles in selected African countries
Lowest
Children per woman
9
Second
Middle
Fourth
Highest
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Chad
MICS 2010
Democratic
Republic of the Congo
DHS 2007
Egypt
DHS 2008
Ethiopia
DHS 2011
Mali
DHS 2006
Niger
DHS 2012
Nigeria
DHS 2013
United Republic
of Tanzania
DHS 2010
Source: UNICEF analysis based on Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data.
West Africa, will have less than 3 children per woman, and
by this century’s close the average fertility rate in all African
subregions will hover at around 2 children per woman.
Average fertility levels vary widely across Africa, and
are strongly correlated with national income
At the country level, 2015 estimates for Africa’s fertility rates
22
vary widely, from 1.5 children per woman in Mauritius to 7.5
children per woman for Niger. Fifteen African countries have
fertility levels of five children or more per woman (Figure
9). In general, fertility levels remain closely correlated with
national income (Figure 10). The countries with average
fertility rates greater than six children per women (Chad,
Mali, Niger and Somalia) all belong to the group of nations
with low income levels.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Adolescent fertility rates are above 120 births
per 1,000 adolescent girls aged 15–19 in 15
African countries
FIG. 11
Top 15 countries with the highest adolescent fertility
rates in Africa, 2010-2015
Births per 1,000 adolescent girls aged 15-19
205
Niger
Mali
176
71
170
Angola
Chad
152
145
Malawi
Mozambique
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
138
135
131
Guinea
130
Côte d'Ivoire
Congo
127
Uganda
127
Zambia
125
Madagascar
United Republic
of Tanzania
Nigeria
123
123
120
Adolescent fertility (adolescent girls aged 15–19) in
Africa is more than double the global average, and
quadruples the world rate in some of the poorest
countries
Adolescent girls aged 15–19 in Africa have the highest rates of
fertility for their age cohort in the world, with 98 births per 1,000
adolescent girls, compared to the average of 45 at the global
level. From 2010 to 2015, 14 per cent of all babies in Africa were
born to adolescent girls and women under 20, compared to 9 per
cent globally.
For the same time period, at the country level, 15 countries in
Africa have 120 or more live births per 1,000 adolescent girls
aged 15 to 19. The highest adolescent fertility rates are estimated
for Niger with 205 births per 1,000 adolescent girls, followed by
Mali (176), Angola (170) and Chad (152) (Figure 11). The lowest
adolescent fertility rates in 2010-2015 are estimated for countries
in North Africa: Libya, with 3 births per 1,000 adolescent girls
aged 15–19; Tunisia (5), and Algeria (10).
98
Africa
World
tend to be higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In Niger,
women in rural areas have on average about two and a half
children more than women living in urban areas and, in Ethiopia,
women in rural areas have about three children more.
45
Contraceptive prevalence remains low and unmet
need high
2010-2015
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
With the exception of countries with already low levels of fertility
rates, significant drops in fertility rates are projected for most
African countries over the course of the century, and particularly
in those countries with the highest rates at present. Fertility
levels in Angola, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Mali, Niger, Somalia and Uganda are estimated to drop by more
than 2.5 children per woman over the next 35 years (Figure 9).
Nonetheless, 19 countries will still have fertility rates above 3
children per women by mid-century.
Figure 10B clearly shows that in the countries analysed, fertility
rates are consistently higher for the poorer quintiles compared
to their richer counterparts. Women in the poorest quintile
in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia,
Mali, Niger, Nigeria and the United Republic of Tanzania have
on average 2 or almost 4 children more than women in the
wealthiest quintile. Survey data also show that fertility levels
Today worldwide, almost two thirds of women of childbearing age
who are in a union are using contraceptive methods.2 In Africa,
this proportion drops to a third of all women. On the continent,
32 African countries have contraceptive prevalence levels below
40 per cent. Half of these countries in Africa have an estimated
level of contraceptive prevalence below 20 per cent and they are
mainly located in Western Africa and Eastern Africa (Figure 12).
Globally, 12 per cent of all women of childbearing age are
estimated to have an unmet need for family planning in 2015; for
the African continent this proportion rises to 23 per cent. Unmet
need for family planning tends to be lowest in countries where
contraceptive prevalence is already high (above 60 per cent).
In Africa, 38 countries are estimated to have high unmet need
levels, ranging from 20 per cent to 35 per cent of all women of
reproductive age who are married or in a union (Figure 13). In 28
of them the contraceptive prevalence is below 30 per cent.
2 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,
Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators, United Nations, New York, 2014.
23
In 16 African countries less than 20 percent of women of reproductive age in a union are using
contraceptive methods
FIG. 12
Percentage of married or in-union women aged 15 to 49 who are using any method of contraception, 2015
Source: UNICEF analysis based on United Nations, Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, Population Division, Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators, United Nations, New York, 2014.
Note: This map is stylized and
not to scale. It does not reflect a
position by UNICEF on the legal
status of any country or area or
the delimitation of any frontiers.
The final boundary between the
Republic of the Sudan and the
Republic of South Sudan has not
yet been determined. The final
status of the Abyei area has not
yet been determined.
© UNICEF-NYHQ2008-1227-Holt
24
Generation 2030 | Africa
In about half of the countries in Africa, a fourth of the women of reproductive age in a union have an unmet
need for family planning
FIG. 13
Percentage of married or in-union women aged 15 to 49 who want to stop or delay childbearing
but are not using a method of contraception, 2015
Source: UNICEF analysis based on United Nations, Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, Population Division, Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators, United Nations, New York, 2014.
Note: This map is stylized and
not to scale. It does not reflect a
position by UNICEF on the legal
status of any country or area or
the delimitation of any frontiers.
The final boundary between the
Republic of the Sudan and the
Republic of South Sudan has not
yet been determined. The final
status of the Abyei area has not
yet been determined.
Note: This map is stylized and not to scale. It does not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or area or the delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary
between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
25
FIG. 14
The number of births will continue to grow in Africa but decline in the rest of the world;
Four in 10 of the world's babies will be born in Africa by mid-century
Births, 1950–2100
A. Number of births, by region
B. Share of births, by region
Births (in millions)
100
100
100
Rest of the world
80
75
75
Africa
60
% 50
40
50 %
Asia
20
25
25
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
0
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
1950
C. Number of births in Africa, by UNECA region
100
Births (in millions)
30
75
20
% 50
10
0
1980
2010
2040
West Africa
Eastern Africa
North Africa
Central Africa
2010
2040
2070
2100
D. Share of births in Africa, by UNECA region
40
1950
0
1980
2070
2100
Southern Africa
100
Central Africa
North Africa
75
Southern Africa
Eastern Africa
50 %
25
25
West Africa
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
© UNICEF-NYHQ2012-1097-Noorani
26
Generation 2030 | Africa
Births
In 1950, Africa accounted for one in every nine global
births. By 2030 Africa is projected to account for
almost one in every three global births. At the end
of the century, Africa will account for almost half of
all the world’s births
More and more of the world's children are being born in Africa.
The trends are truly striking and require contemplation. Today,
around 29 per cent of the world's births take place in Africa.
By 2030, this share will increase to 35 per cent and based on
current trends will reach 41 per cent by mid-century. And by
2100, almost half of all of the world’s children (47 per cent) will
be born in Africa. This is an increase from the figures reported
in the first edition of this series on child demographics, when
Africa’s share of global births was projected at one third by
mid-century; the revision is based on new estimates from
the United Nations Population Division. It is also an almost
unfathomable increase in historical terms, considering that in
1950 only 12 per cent of the world’s births took place in Africa
(Figure 14).
The continent will see almost half a billion births in
the next 10 years or so, and almost 1.8 billion births
over the next 35 years to mid-century
Even under the assumption of large declines in the fertility
levels in Africa, the continent’s number of births is not
estimated to decline until the 2080s because of the increasing
number of women of reproductive age (Figure 7). In fact, the
absolute numbers of births are also set to increase massively.
On current trends, over the next 15 years from 2015 until
2030, 700 million babies — slightly under the entire current
population of the European continent — will be born in Africa,
with a further 1.1 billion births on the continent between 2031
and 2050 (Figure 15). In sum, 1.8 billion babies will be born
from 2015 to 2050, which is 700 million babies more than
over the equivalent number of years from 1980 to 2015. These
1.8 billion babies will account for 35 per cent of the 5 billion
babies projected to be born in the world from 2015 to 2050.
Put another way, in 2015, around 3.4 million births will take
place in Africa every month, adding up to around 40 million
a year. This contrasts sharply with 1950, when Africa’s births
were less than 1 million per month.
West Africa will relatively soon surpass Eastern
Africa as the subregion with the highest number
of births in Africa, as births in low-income countries
proliferate
Subregional birth trends within Africa vary markedly. West Africa’s
relatively higher fertility rates compared to other subregions will
see it surpass Eastern Africa as the region with the highest
numbers of births by 2029. In about three years’ time, from 2018
onward, the number of births in Southern Africa will exceed
those in North Africa for the first time (Figure 14).
By 2050, 1 in every 11 of the world’s babies will be
born in Nigeria, which will experience more than
360 million births in the next 35 years
Presently, 1 in every 5 births in Africa takes place in Nigeria,
which accounts for 1 in every 19 global births. Based on
current trends, between now and 2030, 136 million babies will
be born in Nigeria, and from 2031 until mid-century there will
be 224 million more, adding up to 359 million births — more
than the current population of the United States — in the next
35 years (Figure 16). Assuming current trends persist, Nigeria
will be home to 1 in every 11 global births by 2050.
In 2015–2050, 1.8 billion babies will be born
in Africa, 700 million more than in 1980–2015
FIG. 15
Cumulative number of births in Africa, 1980–2015,
and 2015–2050
2031−2050
1.1
billion
1.1
billion
2015−2030
0.7 billion
1980−2015
2015−2050
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
27
FIG. 16
Nigeria will experience the largest increase in absolute number of births among African countries
Top 10 countries with the greatest number of births in Africa
A. Births, 2015–2030, in millions (% in Africa)
B. Births, 2015–2030 and 2031–2050 (in millions)
Nigeria
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Ethiopia
Nigeria, 136 (19%)
Democratic
Republic of the
Congo,53 (8%)
Niger, 20 (3%)
Sudan, 23 (3%)
67
53
37
Uganda
31
Ethiopia
53 (8%)
Egypt
29
36
United Republic of
Tanzania, 37 (5%)
Kenya
27
41
Uganda, 31 (4%)
Egypt, 29 (4%)
Kenya, 27 (4%)
Sudan 23
Niger 20
224
78
53
United Republic
of Tanzania
Other countries,
277 (40%)
Mozambique, 19 (3%)
136
62
50
2015-2030
2031-2050
32
41
Mozambique 19 29
Note: The first number cited for each country refers to births in millions, the
second to its share of African births.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
© UNICEF-SLRA2013-0894-Asselin
28
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG. 17
Child survival has improved in Africa, but child deaths will be more and more concentrated in Africa
Under-18 deaths by region, 1950–2100
A. Under-18 deaths
B. Share of under-18 deaths
100
100
75
Africa
100
75
60
40
% 50
50 %
20
25
0
5
5
5
5
55
55
35
15
09
07
97
99
20
20
20
1
1
-19
0
0
0-2
0-2
0
0
0
0
5
5
9
7
3
1
7
9
9
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
2
20
19
19
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
25
Asia
0
0
19
50
-1
95
5
19
70
-1
97
5
19
90
-1
99
5
20
10
-2
01
5
20
30
-2
03
5
20
50
-2
05
5
20
70
-2
07
5
20
90
-2
09
5
Deaths (in millions)
80
Rest of the world
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
Mortality, life expectancy and dependency
Child survival has improved markedly across Africa,
but the continent still accounts for half of global
child deaths, a figure that will rise to 70 per cent by
mid-century
A child born in Africa today has a much higher chance of reaching
her or his fifth birthday than almost a quarter of a decade ago.
Back then, in 1990, more than 1 in every 6 African children
died before reaching age 5; in 2012, the latest year for which
estimates are available, that ratio fell to 1 in every 11 children
born.3 The 1980s and 1990s were a particularly challenging
time for child mortality in Africa: Births surged and so did child
deaths because progress in reducing child mortality was not
enough to out pace the increasing number of births. This trend
continued until the late 1990s, when Africa began to see a fall
in its absolute numbers of child deaths.
The regional decline in under-five and under-18 deaths that has
occurred since the late 1990s is encouraging, and in large part
is thanks to the concerted efforts of national and international
3 UNICEF, Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed – Progress Report 2013,
New York, 2013.
partners to prioritize child survival interventions in sub-Saharan
Africa. But faster progress elsewhere has left Africa far behind
the rest of the world, leading to a high concentration of the
world's child deaths on this continent. Today, more than half of
deaths among children under 18 occur in Africa, a figure that is
projected to rise to 70 per cent by mid-century (Figure 17).
Life expectancy for Africa’s children has risen sharply
in recent decades and will continue to rise, steadily
narrowing the gap with other regions
Children born in Africa can now expect to live considerably longer
lives than previous generations. In the 1950s, ’40-something’s’
were relatively rare in Africa, with average life expectancy at 37
years, significantly lower than in the developed regions of the
world (65 years). That gap has narrowed even as life expectancy
in all regions has risen. Today, African life expectancy at birth
is 58 years — far greater than in any time in the continent’s
recorded history but still 19 years lesser than the developed
regions and 12 years lesser than the global average of 70 years
in 2010–15 (Figure 18). This gap will narrow steadily according
to current projections, and by 2035, Africa will have its first
generation that can expect to reach pensionable age, as life
expectancy at birth will reach 65 years for the first time.
29
High child dependency and low old-age dependency ratios
are especially prevalent in Eastern, West and Central Africa.
North Africa and Southern Africa, to a lesser extent, display
lower child dependency ratios (Figure 20). In the coming
decades, Africa, like all regions, will see a sharp increase in
its old-age dependency ratio as its population finally begins to
age, particularly after mid-century. But unlike the rest of the
world, Africa’s dependency ratio is projected to keep falling
as the growth in the working-age population and falling child
dependency ratio outweigh the moderate increases in oldage dependency until close to the end of the 21st century.
Across Africa, there is considerable divergence in the
composition of dependency ratios. In 2015, the African
countries with the highest child dependency ratios are Niger
90
70
50
30
World
Africa
Developedregions
Asia
Note: Developed regions and developing regions follow those of United Nations Statistical Division 'Standard country or area codes for statistical use'. The detailed classification can be found at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
with 106, Uganda with 97, Chad and Mali with 96, Angola and
Somalia with 93, Zambia with 91, Gambia with 88, Mozambique
with 87 and Malawi with 86 (Figure 21A). No African country
has a particularly high rate of old-age dependency, but among
those with the highest old-age dependency ratios in Africa are
Mauritius with 13; Seychelles and Tunisia with 11; Egypt, Gabon
and South Africa with 9; Cabo Verde, Morocco and Libya with
8 and Algeria with 7 (Figure 21B).
© UNICEF-SLRA2013-0437-Asselin
30
110 Life expectancy at birth by region, 1950-2100
Years
Africa’s dependency ratio — measured as children (14 and
younger) + elderly (65 and older) as a share of the working-age
population (15–64 years) — is high, at 79 per 100 persons of
working age in 2015, but has declined steadily since 1950. But
unlike any other continent or region, Africa's overall dependency
ratio is driven by an outstandingly high child dependency ratio
(Figure 19); in contrast, most other regions are facing increasing
dependency ratios driven by ageing populations. Africa has the
highest child dependency ratio, at 73 children per 100 persons
of working age in 2015, close to double the global average of 40
children per 100 persons close to working age.
FIG. 18
Life expectancy at birth is increasing,
but remains shorter in Africa than in other regions
19
501
19 955
65
-19
19 70
80
-19
19 95
95
-2
20 000
10
-2
0
20 15
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
0
20 45
55
-2
06
0
20
70
-2
20 075
85
-2
09
0
Africa’s overall dependency ratio will stay high,
due to its expanding child population, in contrast
to other regions that face rising dependency due to
growing elderly populations
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG. 19
Africa has the highest child dependency ratio in the world
Composition of dependency ratios (child and old-age), 1950–2100
Number of child (under 15) and old-age (65 and over) dependants per 100 persons of working age (15–64)
A. Dependency ratios in Africa
100
B. Dependency ratios in Asia
old-age
child
100
100
child
old-age
100
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
0
2100
C. Dependency ratios in the rest of the world
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
0
2100
D. Global dependency ratios
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
2100
1950
100
child
old-age
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
child
old-age
0
0
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
31
FIG. 20
Total dependency ratios in Africa’s regions are mainly driven by high child dependency ratios,
and very low old-age dependency ratios
Child- and old-age dependency ratios in UNECA regions, 1950–2100
Number of child (under 15) and old-age (65 and over) dependants per 100 persons of working age (15–64)
A. Child dependency ratios
B. Old-age dependency ratios
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
60
60
60
60
40
40
40
40
20
20
20
20
0
0
0
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
West Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
North Africa
Central Africa
Africa
North Africa
Central Africa
Africa
World
World
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
FIG. 21
In 2015, in Niger, there are more children than persons of working age: 106 dependent children per 100
persons of working age
Top 10 countries in Africa with highest child, old-age and total dependency ratios, 2015
Number of dependants per 100 persons of working age (15–64)
A. Child dependency ratios
B. Old-age dependency ratios
Niger
Uganda
Chad
Mali
Angola
Somalia
Zambia
Gambia
Mozambique
Malawi
106
Africa
World
97
96
96
93
93
91
88
87
86
40
73
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
32
Mauritius
Seychelles
Tunisia
Egypt
Gabon
South Africa
Cabo Verde
Morocco
Libya
Algeria
Africa
World
13
11
11
9
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
13
C. Total dependency ratios
Niger
Uganda
Chad
Mali
Somalia
Angola
Zambia
Mozambique
Malawi
Gambia
Africa
World
101
101
101
98
98
96
94
93
92
52
79
112
Generation 2030 | Africa
Population density has risen sharply in Africa
in recent decades
FIG. 22
Population density by region 1950–2100
(persons per sq. km)
The most densely populated African
countries are mainly low-income countries
FIG. 23
Top 10 most densely populated countries in Africa, 2015
(persons per sq. km)
615
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
Density and urbanization
Africa will become far more crowded this century,
with the continent’s population density set to
almost quadruple by 2100
The surge in its inhabitants has seen Africa become much more
densely populated in recent decades. The continent’s population
density has risen from 8 persons per square kilometre in 1950 to
39 per square kilometre in 2015. It will more than double to 80
persons per square kilometre in 2050, and almost quadruple to
139 persons per square kilometre by the end of the century —
roughly the current population density of China (146) (Figure 22).
Among the African countries with more than 500,000 inhabitants,
Mauritius is the most densely populated country with 615 persons
per square kilometre, followed by Rwanda with 472, Comoros
with 414, Burundi with 388, and Nigeria with 199 (Figure 23). In
Nigeria, population density is expected to rise to 296 persons per
square km in 2030, and to 477 in 2050, and 989 persons per
square km in 2100 — roughly the current population density of
Bangladesh. By the end of the century, Burundi is projected to
become the most densely populated country in Africa with 2,022
persons per square kilometre, followed by Rwanda with 1,375
persons per square kilometre.
The image of Africa as a mostly rural continent is
beginning to fade quickly amid rapid urbanization
that will lead to the majority of its people and
children living in cities in less than 25 years
Cabo
Verde
Togo
Gambia
146 126 126
Malawi
174 167
Uganda
199
Nigeria
388
Burundi
414
Comoros
Rwanda
Mauritius
472
Note: Countries with more than 500,000 inhabitants.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
To many outside the continent, the image of Africa often
continues to be largely rural. The figures still somewhat support
this notion, but only just: nowadays 40 per cent of Africa's
population lives in urban areas. The past three decades have
seen a frenetic pace of urbanization; considering that in 1980,
just 27 per cent of the population was classified as living in urban
areas. This rapid growth is set to continue, with Africa set to
become an urban continent by the late 2030s with the majority
of its population living in cities or towns. By mid-century, 56 per
cent of Africa's population will live in urban areas (Figure 24).
Huge discrepancies in urbanization persist across
regions and countries in Africa
Urbanization in 2015 is most advanced in the North Africa region,
where more than half of the population lives in cities or towns,
followed by Central Africa (46 per cent), West Africa (45 per
cent), and Southern Africa (44 per cent). Eastern Africa is far less
urbanized than the other regions, with only about a fourth of its
population currently living in cities or town (28 per cent) (Figure 25).
At the national level, in 2015, urbanization will be most
advanced in Gabon with 87 per cent of the population living
in cities and towns, followed by Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and
Morocco in North Africa, smaller countries such as Djibouti,
Cabo Verde, Sao Tome and Principe, the Congo in Central
Africa, and South Africa (Figure 26).
But Africa will still be home to countries with a high population
of rural inhabitants. For example, Burundi, the continent’s
33
FIG 24
In less than 25 years, the majority of Africa’s population will live in urban areas
Rural and urban population by region, 1950–2050
B. Asia
6
6
5
5
Population (in billions)
Population (in billions)
A. Africa
4
3
2
1
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2
1
10
5
8
4
3
2
1
0
1970
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
6
4
2
0
1950
1950
D. World
6
Population (in billions)
Population (in billions)
3
0
2050
C. Rest of the world
4
1990
2010
2030
2050
1950
Source: UNICEF analysis based on United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision (UN WUP),
United Nations, New York, 2014.
fourth most densely populated country, has the highest
proportion of the population living in rural areas in 2015 (88
per cent), followed by Uganda, Malawi, Niger, South Sudan,
and Ethiopia — all with more than 80 per cent rural population.
Six out of the top 10 countries with the largest percentage of
rural populations are located in Eastern Africa and five out of
these were classified as fragile contexts in 2014.
Although more children still live in rural areas,
the growth in Africa’s urban child population has
outstripped that of its rural counterpart
For children, urbanization trends have been equally pronounced
on the African continent.4 In 1980, about three quarters of
all children under 5 and under 18 lived in rural areas, while in
2015 this ratio will fall to about 60 per cent. Compared to the
rural population, the child and adult population in urban areas has
4 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Urban and
Rural Population by Age and Sex, 1980-2015, United Nations, New York, version 2 August 2013.
34
been growing much faster over the last 35 years from 1980 to
2015. Over this period, the absolute increase in child population
in urban and rural areas is similar but the relative increases are
much larger in the urban areas. In 2015, the child population in
urban areas will be more than three times its size in 1980, while
the rural child population is only about twice its size in 1980.
Dependency ratios in rural areas tend to be higher than
in urban areas in Africa
In 1980, child dependency ratios in rural areas in Africa were
significantly higher than in urban areas, with 90 children per
100 persons of working age, compared to 74 in urban areas.
In 2015, differences in child dependency ratios between
rural and urban areas remain substantial with 78 child
dependents per 100 persons of working age in rural areas
and 66 in urban areas.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Africa’s urban children are increasingly likely to
grow up in rapidly expanding megacities
FIG. 25
By 2050, in all regions — except Eastern Africa — the
majority of the population will live in cities and towns
Projections are not available for urban-rural population trends
disaggregated by age. But based on the estimations for urban
concentration, there is an increasing likelihood according to the
projections of the United Nation Population Division that in the
future Africa's urban children will also live in megacities. The
population of Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt will rise to 25 million in
2030 from 19 million in 2015. The population in Lagos, Nigeria,
the second biggest agglomeration in Africa, is projected to
grow from 13 million in 2015 to 24 million in 2030. Meanwhile,
Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will become
the second largest urban agglomeration in sub-Saharan Africa
with 20 million inhabitants in 2030, up from 12 million in 2015.
Percentage urban in total population
Percentage of population residing in urban areas
by UNECA region, 1950–2050
An analysis5 for Africa by the French Agency for Development
(AFD) confirms that the urban population in West Africa has
increased on a large scale from 1950 until today and that
the number of urban centres with populations above 10,000
inhabitants has grown continuously, from 125 in 1950 to close
to 1,300 in 2010. However, the study emphasizes that while a
large number of smaller agglomerations have emerged in West
Africa, a smaller part of the population is living in agglomerations
with more than 10,000 inhabitants. Also, their analysis shows
slower trends in urbanization today than the United Nations
100
75
% 50
25
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
North Africa
Central Africa
Africa
World
West Africa
Southern Africa
Eastern Africa
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WUP 2014 Revision.
estimates and the authors conclude that today’s urban growth
is less pronounced than 50 years ago since the rise in the
percentage of urban population in total to rural population has
slowed continuously since the 1980s. More reliable data to
base estimates upon will be needed to assess more accurately
the current urbanization trends in the African regions.
5 Agence Française de Développement (AFD), 'Africapolis urbanisation trends
1950–2020 – a geostatistical approach – West Africa study', Paris, 2011, available
at http://www.afd.fr.
FIG. 26
Huge disparities in urbanization persist between countries
Top 10 African countries with highest percentage of population residing in urban and rural areas, 2015
A. Top 10 countries in Africa with highest percentage urban
population in 2015
79
84
84
77
71
67
66
65
65
81
81
81
79
78
77
Eritrea
88
87
Chad
B. Top 10 countries in Africa with highest percentage rural
population in 2015
74
65
Kenya
Swaziland
Ethiopia
South Sudan
Niger
Malawi
Uganda
Burundi
Morocco
South Africa
Sao Tome
and Principe
Congo
Cabo Verde
Tunisia
Algeria
Djibouti
Libya
Gabon
60
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WUP 2014 Revision.
35
FIG. 27
Today, three in 10 of Africa’s children are living in fragile and conflict-affected states
Number of children under 18 in fragile and conflict-affected states, 2014 (in millions)
Libya
2.2
Mali
8.5
Guinea-Bissau
0.8
Sierra Leone
3
Liberia
2.2
Sudan
18.4
Chad
7.3
Togo
3.4
Central African
Republic
2.2
Côte d'Ivoire
10.0
Congo
2.2
Eritrea
3.2
South Sudan
5.7
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo
35.7
Somalia
5.8
Children under 18
Burundi
5.3
Fragile,
143 (27%)
Comoros
0.4
Non-fragile,
393 (73%)
Malawi
8.7
Zimbabwe
6.7
Note: This map is stylized and not to scale. It does not
reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any
country or area or the delimitation of any frontiers.
The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan
and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been
determined. The final status of the Abyei area has not
yet been determined.
Madagascar
11.5
Births, children under 5 and 5–17, and deaths by fragile and conflict-affected states in Africa, 2014 (in millions)
A. Births, 2014
B. Children, 2014
29
C. Average annual number
of under-18 deaths, 2010-15
264
0.7
0.3
11
96
129
2.6
1.4
48
Fragile
Non-fragile
Fragile
Children under 5
Non-fragile
Children 5-17
Fragile
Under 5 deaths
Non-fragile
Under 5-17 deaths
Note: Fragile and conflicted-affected states refer to the World Bank 'Harmonized List of Fragile Situations FY14'. Fragile Situations have: either (a) a harmonized average Country Policy
and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) country rating of 3.2 or less, or (b) the presence of a UN and/or regional peace-keeping or peace-building mission during the past three years. For
further details of this classification please refer to http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTLICUS/Resources/511777-1269623894864/HarmonizedlistoffragilestatesFY14.pdf.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
36
Generation 2030 | Africa
Fragility and poverty
Around three in 10 of Africa’s children are growing up
in fragile and conflict-affected states
Many of Africa's children are growing up in situations of fragility,
poverty and inequality. Of the 34 countries currently classified by
the World Bank as fragile and conflict-affected contexts in 2014,
20 are African. Around one fourth of the continent's population
(288 million), 27 per cent of the child population under 18 (143
million) and 27 per cent of the child population under 5 (47
million) live in these 20 fragile contexts. Almost three in 10 births
in Africa, and one third of under-five deaths occur in these 20
contexts (Figure 27). Six of the countries with fertility levels over
five children per women are classified as fragile and conflictaffected states (Burundi, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Malawi, Mali and Somalia).
A broader concept of fragility is used by the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),6 combining
the World Bank list and the Failed State Index from the Fund
for Peace. Following this classification 31 African countries are
classified as fragile contexts. The OECD highlights that these
states are less likely to meet the MDGs, and four of the African
fragile states with available data are unlikely to meet any of the
MDGs by 2015. The report underscores that people living in a
context of conflict and fragility are largely affected by poverty
and that progress in fragile states on eradicating poverty has
been especially slow.
6 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: Fragile States 2014:
Domestic Revenue mobilization in fragile states, OECD, Paris, 2014.
Almost half of Africa’s countries are classified as
low-income, and are home to around half of its total
population and child population
Almost half (26) of the continent’s 54 countries are classified as
low-income, comprising 552 million inhabitants in 2015, almost
half of Africa’s overall population. Seventeen African countries are
classified as lower-middle-income countries with 470 million people
in 2015 (40 per cent); 10 are upper-middle-income countries with
142 million in 2015 (12 per cent); and only one country (Equatorial
Guinea) is a high-income country with less than a million people.
In the continent, 9 out of 10 children under 18 are living in low- and
lower-middle-income countries (Figure 28).
Most of Africa’s population is living in poverty
Most of Africa’s population is living in poverty, often extreme, despite
high GDP growth rates in recent years. Based on the latest data
available for 45 of Africa's 54 countries from the World Bank, 58 per
cent of the African population — and 70 per cent of sub–Saharan
Africa — survives on less than US$2 per day. In the two subregions of
Eastern and Western Africa, more than 70 per cent of the population
lives on less than US$2 per day. Extreme poverty is also rife on the
continent; around 40 per cent of Africa's population, and almost half of
sub-Saharan Africa live on less US$1.25 per day (Figure 29).
While less data are available for poverty breakdowns by age group,
current estimations from theWorld Bank based on data for 26 countries
in sub-Saharan Africa show that children have a higher poverty rate
than adults in these countries.7 More than half of the children under 18
live in in extreme poverty on less than US$1.25 per day.
7 The World Bank, ‘International Income Distribution Database (I2D2)’, The World Bank,
Washington, D.C., 2014.
© UNICEF-NYHQ2013-0147-Bindra
37
FIG. 28
9 in 10 children in Africa live in the 26 low-income and 17 lower-middle-income countries
Countries in Africa by national income, 2015
Children under 18
Note: This map is stylized and not to scale. It does not reflect
a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or
area or the delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary
between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South
Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the
Abyei area has not yet been determined.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision. The national income classifications follow the World Bank income classification, 2014.
FIG. 29
Almost half of the population in sub-Saharan Africa lives in extreme poverty
Percentage of poor in the population, 2010
A. Percentage of the population living below US$1.25 per day
100
75
75
% 50
B. Percentage of the population living below US$2 per day
100
53
48
54
40
40
29
25
74
70
58
77
59
50
% 50
25
18
6
0
Africa
SubSaharan
Arica
North Central Southern West Eastern
Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa
0
Africa
SubSaharan
Arica
North Central Southern West Eastern
Africa Africa Africa Africa Africa
Source: UNICEF analysis based on the World Bank 'PovcalNet: the on-line tool for poverty measurement developed by the Development Research Group of the World Bank', 2014.
38
© UNICEF-BRDA2012-00041-Krzysiek
Generation 2030 | Africa
Data from UNICEF’s Multiple Overlapping Deprivation
Analysis (MODA)8 for 23 countries in Africa show that a
vast majority of children under 5 are deprived in terms of
nutrition, health, water, sanitation, and housing. From 71
to 98 per cent of children under 5 in countries with survey
data have deprivations in access to goods and services
related to nutrition, health, water, sanitation and housing
which are crucial for their survival and development. On
average children experience deprivations in two to three of
the five above mentioned dimensions. Among the countries
compared, the deprivation intensity is lowest in Rwanda
8 United Nations Children’s Fund, ‘Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA)’,
www.unicef-irc.org/MODA, UNICEF, 2014.
and highest in Chad, where child poverty is most intense
with children on average being deprived in three to four
dimensions.
Poverty rates for 5–17-year-olds are only marginally lower
than for the under-fives. Data for 24 African countries reveal
that among children aged 5–17 between 56 to 95 per cent
are deprived in at least one of five following dimensions:
education, information, water, sanitation and housing. The
deprivation is highest in Malawi with 95 per cent of all children
being deprived in at least one dimension. Children in Chad
are deprived most intensively; on average a child in Chad is
deprived in more than three of the five dimensions.
39
AFRICA
demographic transition
In demographic transition, the population moves from one demographic structure to another. Typically, following the initial stage, four stages are involved in
the demographic transition process that describe how secular shifts in fertility and mortality levels change the age structure of a population from many children
and few elderly to few children and many elderly. In the transitional period, countries can experience unprecedented levels of population growth.
Demographic transition in stages
Stage 1: Fertility and mortality are high and fluctuating. Births and deaths
1
2
3
4
5
counterbalance, therefore population size increases very slowly, if at all.
Birth rate
Stage 2: Mortality starts to decline, especially among children and young adults.
Population size increases because the number of births is greater than the number
of deaths.
Stage 3: Fertility levels also start to decline, and population growth slows down.
Death rate
Population size is still growing due to the young age structure of the population
Total population
(women of reproductive age), despite lower levels of fertility.
Stage 4: Fertility and mortality are both low, resulting in low population growth and population ageing.
Stage 5: A fifth stage where fertility levels fall below replacement level has been suggested. Eventually population will decline over the long term. This stage
is also called the 'second demographic transition' or 'second fertility transition'.
High child dependency ratios
Low child dependency ratios
In the course of stage 2 of the demographic transition, declining mortality and
rising life expectancy not only impact the population size, they also alter the
age structure of the population. As the initial mortality decline concentrates in
children under 5, the survival of infants and children increases. The population
grows younger and the proportion of children relative to adults gets larger.
During this stage, the working-age population supports an increasing number
of dependent children.
The young age structure, which is the result of high fertility and low mortality,
entails future population growth. The relative abundance of younger people
results in a birth rate that is higher than the death rate even if the fertility rate
is at replacement.
The population pyramid for Nigeria in 2015 shows a very young population with
few elderly people (Figure A). The age structure in the population has not changed
significantly compared to 1950. The number of young children in the population is
increasing, with new births getting added every year to the base. Nigeria has high
potential for future growth. With reduced child mortality, a large proportion of the
big cohorts who are now children will survive to adulthood and have children of
their own, thus contributing to population growth. Through improvements in adult
survival, the sides of the pyramid have become less steeply sloping, and the adult
population larger.
The prolonged decline in fertility initially affects the base of the
population pyramid, as the proportion of children begins to decline.
When the relative size of younger cohorts in the population eventually
starts declining, the cohorts that had initially benefited from the
decreasing mortality keep the population of working age growing
— and a 'youth bulge' is created. During this period, the proportion
of the population of working age grows relative to the proportion of
both children and elderly people combined, producing more potential
workers per dependent. For a longer period, which can last more than a
decade, the decline in the younger age groups is not compensated by an
increase in the older age groups, so that the working-age populations
tends to become larger than the non-working-age population.
The age pyramid for South Africa in 2015 reflects the fact that
fertility rates have fallen and the current cohorts of women of
childbearing age are not giving rise to very large cohorts of children.
The age structure of the population is changing the working-age
population in South Africa, which is becoming larger than the group
of dependents. In 2050, the dependency ratios in South Africa will be
at 47 dependents per 100 persons of working age, compared to 54 in
2015 and 73 in 1950.
A. Population by age and sex in Nigeria, 1950, 2015, 2050 and 2100 (in millions)
Male
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
50
40
25
1950
0
Female
25
Male
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
50
50
25
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
2015
0
Female
25
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
50
50
Male
25
2050
0
Female
25
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
50
50
Male
25
2100
0
Female
25
50
AFRICA
demographic dividend
B. Population by age and sex in South Africa, 1950, 2015, 2050 and 2100 (in millions)
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
Male
3
1950
Female
1
1
Male
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
3
3
1
2015
2050
Female
1
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
3
3
Male
1
2100
Female
1
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
3
Female
Male
3
1
1
3
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
Country classification
Demographic dividend
The situation of having a relatively larger working-age population is related
to the so-called first demographic dividend.* The age structure of the
population can have important economic consequences for the population
since an increased number of potential workers per dependent increases the
potential for increasing production and savings.
The demographic dividend has to be seen as a window of opportunity for
accelerated economic growth may — or may not — be realized. The favourable age
structure of a population between fertility decline and an ageing population frames
the window of opportunity in the third phase of the demographic transition. Besides
the favourable age structure, inclusive and equitable economic and social policies
as well as political and social stability matter for reaping the demographic bonus.
In the next stage of the demographic transition the increasing longevity leads
to a rapid growth of the group of elderly people. At the same time, low fertility
results in a slower growth of the working-age population.
The ageing population can create a burden for the working-age population if
supported by intergenerational transfers, either through pension systems or from
adult offspring. It has been argued that this burden would neutralize or be limited
by life cycle savings of the elderly.** As the working-age population matures the
prospect of retirement can provide the motivation to save for financial security.
The additional savings can either be consumed or used to prolong economic
growth. This stage of economic growth has been termed the second demographic
dividend which can occur in the fourth phase of the demographic transition.
The stage of countries in their demographic transition can be assessed by
comparing the trajectory of fertility and mortality trends as well as the age
structure. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have so far not experienced
favourable dependency structures. Many of these countries are still
experience high fertility rates today.
Currently countries in Africa can be classified broadly into 4 groups according
to their fertility trends. In the first group adolescents and youth are currently
entering the working-age population, and dependency ratios are decreasing. In
the second group of countries, fertility started declining more noticeably in the
1970s and 1980s and by the mid 21st century a large group of adolescents will
enter the working-age population. In the third group of countries fertility levels
are still high but declining, which will after a prolonged decline lead to a change
in the age structure of the population. The fourth group includes countries with
small or only recent declines in the fertility levels, their potential for population
growth remains high and the age structure will only change slowly.
All countries in Africa have experienced significant reductions in child
and adult mortality. Since 1950 life expectancy at birth increased in all
African countries. However, substantial variations in mortality declines
exist between countries. Several countries in fragile and conflict affected
situations in Africa have shown smaller reductions in mortality levels, and
countries with high HIV prevalence experienced a stagnation or reduction in
life expectancy in the late 1990 and early 2000s.
* Bloom, D.E., D. Canning and J. Sevilla. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Population Matters Monograph MR-1274,
RAND, Santa Monica 2003.
**Lee, R. and A. Mason, eds., 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective', Edward Elgar, Chetenham, 2011.
Countries in Africa by fertility level and decline
Low fertility
Medium fertility level
and declining
High fertility and declining
High fertility and slowly or only
recently declining
Countries
Algeria, Cabo Verde,
Egypt, Libya, Mauritius,
Morocco, Seychelles,
South Africa, Tunisia
Botswana, Djibouti,
Lesotho, Namibia,
Swaziland,
Zimbabwe
Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Comoros,
Côte d'Ivoire, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo
Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad,
Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Uganda,
United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia
Fertility level (range and
average across countries)
1.5—2.8
(average: 2.4)
2.6—3.5
(average: 3.2)
3.9—5.0
(average: 4.6)
5.0-—7.6
(average: 5.9)
Fertility decline began
Late 1950— early 1980
Total dependency ratio, (range 40%—58%
(average: 49%)
and average across countries)
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
1960s—1970s
1970s—1980s
1980s to now
58%—74%
(average: 65%)
70%—86%
(average: 79%)
82%—112%
(average: 94%)
41
© UNICEF-NYHQ2012-1531-Pirozzi
2 | Policy issues
42
Generation 2030 | Africa
2 | Policy issues
The 2000 Millennium Declaration made meeting the special needs
of Africa one of the priorities for human development in the 21st
century. And while much has been achieved in the past decade and a half,
Africa’s burgeoning population — together with the multiplicity of
deprivations and risks that many of its children face on a daily basis —
makes this all the more an urgent priority for the post-2015 framework.
With Africa’s child population set to grow by two
thirds by mid-century and number almost 1 billion,
and with subnational child populations likely to grow
even more rapidly in settings of poverty, inequality
and fragility than national aggregate projections
suggest, more ambitious strategies are required to
realize the rights of all Africa’s children.
International dialogue on Africa’s child
demographics and their implications for
children’s rights, development and future is
urgently required
The seismic demographic shifts that Africa’s child
population will experience are among the most
important questions facing the continent, and indeed
vital issues for the world. Global, regional and national
policy debates and discourse on the implications of
these trends are imperative, to better prepare for the
post-2015 agenda and to create an Africa fit for all of
its children in the rest of the century.
As globalization continues to increase the interconnectedness and interdependence of the world’s
citizens, the reverberations of Africa’s demographic
transition will be felt far beyond the continent’s borders.
It has implications for a diverse range of issues, from
China’s growing demand for resources and major
investments in Africa; Europe’s challenges with
migration from Africa; and Africa’s emerging status as
a major consumer and investment market; to political
stability and human security, energy usage, protection,
and global poverty reduction.
A study by Kantorová and co-authors9 illustrates
how population growth can be challenging for public
health services. Relative progress in the coverage
of skilled attendance at birth in sub-Saharan Africa
is slow due to the increasing annual number of
births, only rising from 40 per cent in 1990 to 53
per cent in 2012. However, the absolute number of
births attended by a skilled health provider doubled
from 9 million to 18 million over the same period.
Increasing numbers of births will continue to have a
serious impact on the ability of countries to provide
the necessary health services, unless programmes
and resources are significantly expanded. In order
to keep the same coverage of birth attendance as
in 2012 (53 per cent) for the year 2030, roughly 25
million births need to be attended — 7 million births
more than the 18 million in 2012, requiring many
more health personnel and facilities.
Without addressing Africa’s demographic challenge,
the world as a whole may not be able to meet
the post-2015 targets it eventually sets, and move
towards the Millennium Declaration’s aims of a
world marked by prosperity, peace, stability, equity,
9 Kantorová, V, Biddlecom, A. and Newby, H. ‘Keeping pace with population
growth’, The Lancet, vol. 384, No. 9940, 26 July 2014, pp. 307—308.
43
tolerance and environmental sustainability by the end of this
century.
Investing in children will be paramount for Africa to
realize the rights of its burgeoning child population
and benefit from a potential demographic dividend
Almost 2 billion babies will be born in Africa within 35 years and
almost one billion children, nearly 40 per cent of the world’s
total, will live in Africa by mid-century. If invested in through
expanded and improved health care, education, protection
and participation mechanisms, these 1 billion children and
their predecessors, the children of today and tomorrow, have
the potential to transform the continent, breaking centuries
old cycles of poverty and inequity.
But the opposite is also possible. Unless investment in
the continent’s children is prioritized, the sheer burden of
population expansion has the potential to undermine attempts
to eradicate poverty through economic growth, and worse,
could result in rising poverty and marginalization of many if
growth were to falter.
A pressing concern is the potential for a slowing and possible
reversal in Africa’s and indeed the world’s annual numbers of
under-five deaths, as falling mortality rates in the continent
might be offset by a vastly higher number of births from a rapidly
expanding population of women of reproductive age. And
without equitable investment in children, prioritizing the poorest
and most disadvantaged in the coming decades, Africa risks
repeating the mistakes of other continents and experiencing
ever-widening disparities among its children even as its economy
prospers, with negative implications for employment, sustained
growth and political and social stability.
Investment in children is also the best hope for Africa to reap a
potentially massive and historic demographic dividend, as the
labour force increases and dependency rates fall rapidly in many
African nations. For its youngest citizens, such investment is of
the highest importance: science increasingly underscores the
criticality of the earliest years. For example, poor nutrition in the
first 1,000 days of a child's life can lead to stunted growth, which
is irreversible and associated with impaired cognitive ability and
reduced school and work performance.
Investing in Africa’s adolescents and youth as well is its young
children will also be paramount, for at least two reasons. The first
is that such investment is required to break the vicious cycle
44
of poverty and inequality that transpires when adolescents
are engaged prematurely in adult roles of marriage and
parenthood. Elevated incidence of early sex, unmet need
for contraception and reproductive health services, and
early marriage in Africa are root causes of high adolescent
fertility and high lifetime number of births for mothers. Not
only does premature entry into these roles have physical and
psychological risks for adolescents, particularly adolescent
females, they also often prevent them from entering or
completing secondary education, enjoying their adolescence
to the fullest, and reaching their full potential.
Second, Africa’s demographic dividend is far from guaranteed
by its changing demographics alone. It is the 10-year-olds
today that will be entering the labour force in a decade’s time
when many more of African nations begin to experience
their demographic transition as dependency rates fall
further. Increased labour supply owing to expansion in the
working-age population, together with falling dependency
ratios, may not in themselves sustain economic growth at
elevated levels seen in recent years unless the additional
labour can be productively absorbed. This is underscored in
the African Common Position on post-2015 agenda, whose
economic policy agenda is focused on structural economic
transformation, industrialization and employment generation.
It is also reiterated in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which
charts a framework for the continent’s development for the
next 50 years.
The best way of reaping the demographic dividend and
structurally transforming Africa’s economy will heavily
depend on investing now in human capital, particularly in
health, nutrition, water and sanitation, and particularly
quality education. Supporting Africa’s poor families to do
this for their children, through service delivery and social
protection in particular, will be paramount if Africa is to take
full advantage of its demographic transition in the coming
decades.
Africa’s adolescents and youth will require the skills and
knowledge to meet the challenges of a changing Africa, but
also to be able to compete in an increasingly mechanized and
hyper-connected global marketplace. That many of Africa’s
adolescents increasingly have access to ICT through mobile
telephony is a welcome window of opportunity for innovative
and participation, but this must be complemented by far greater
investments in their education, health care and protection,
and linking education to employment opportunities.
Generation 2030 | Africa
Pro-active policy responses to Africa’s projected
demographic shifts, including expanded reproductive health services, are imperative
The demographic trends described in this report are not
inevitable; most are policy responsive. But addressing the
phenomenal pace of Africa’s population increase will require
courageous and determined action. In particular, a discourse
must emerge on how to extend access to greater reproductive
health services to Africa’s families — including culturally
sensitive reproductive health education and services for
women and particularly adolescent girls to reduce the unmet
need — in an equitable and socially sensitive fashion that also
encourages utilization, is non-discriminatory against any child
or woman, and does no harm.
Unmet need for family planning reflects the gap between
childbearing desires and contraceptive use. The estimates of
the United Nations Population Division showed that for 2015
in sub-Saharan Africa, 25 per cent of women of reproductive
age who are married or in a union have an unmet need for
family planning.10 A report released by the United Nations
Population Division in December 201311 underscored that
most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not seen a notable
reduction in unmet need since 1990, in contrast to other
regions. However, recent success stories in sub-Saharan
Africa (such as Ethiopia, Malawi and Rwanda) show that
meeting demand for family planning can be accelerated if
reproductive health becomes a higher governmental priority.
Reducing adolescent fertility rates in Africa is essential for
improving the reproductive health of African adolescents and
will be critical to pro-active responses to Africa’s projected
demographic shifts. High levels of adolescent fertility are
associated with elevated rates of unsatisfied demand for
reproductive health services, including family planning. In 18 subSaharan African countries, more than 50 per cent of adolescent
females report unmet need for family planning.12
Investing in and empowering girls and young
women, including ending child marriage and
10 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Model-based Estimates and Projections of Family Planning Indicators, United Nations,
New York, 2014.
11 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. ‘Meeting Demand for Family Planning’, Population Facts No. 2013/6, December 2013. United
Nations, New York.
12 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,
‘Adolescent Fertility since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo’, United Nations, New York, 2013.
prioritizing girls’ education, will be imperative to
build an Africa fit for children
Investing in and empowering girls and young women will be
imperative to slow adolescent fertility rates, and build an Africa fit
for all. Expanded programmes to end child marriage (as defined
as a union in which one or both parties are under age 18), which
is highly prevalent across the continent, must also be included as
part of efforts to address Africa’s demographic transition. Child
marriage is a determining factor in sustaining elevated rates of
adolescent pregnancy and high lifetime fertility rates for women,
and in excluding girls from education. Studies clearly show that
educated women delay their first pregnancy, and space their
births more widely than women who lack education.
Prioritizing and girls’ education — as well as ensuring quality
education for all — in Africa will therefore also be among the
most powerful measures to build an Africa prepared for its
demographic transitions and ready to take advantage of its
potential demographic dividend. The majority of the world's
countries that report high adolescent fertility and low school
life expectancy (i.e., the number of years of schooling that a
girl pupil can expect to spend from the beginning of primary
through secondary school) are in sub-Saharan Africa, where
out-of-school rates are also highest.13
Empowerment of women and girls in Africa must go
beyond the statistics, as elsewhere, to the roots of
discrimination, marginalization and violence that undermine
their rights. Cultural, social, economic and political barriers
that perpetuate the disempowerment of women must be
urgently addressed if Africa is to manage its demographic
transition and reap the full rewards of prosperity that a
demographic dividend can bring.
National development plans and systems strengthening must take greater account of projected shifts
in Africa’s child population, and focus ever more
strongly on equity-based approaches in policy and
programming
With many African countries set to see unprecedented
absolute increases in their child and overall populations, national
development planning and systems strengthening must be
adapted and sharpened to prepare for these demographic
shifts. This will necessarily include a stronger focus on
13 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics.
Education For All Global Monitoring Report 2013/14. UNESCO, Paris, 2014.
45
demographic data and analysis at national and subnational
levels. In short, demographic analysis at national and particularly
at the subnational levels must become a much more integral
component of development programming in Africa.
Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems will be
essential for strengthening development planning at the national
and subnational levels. Without accurate demographic data and
analysis, it will be difficult to plan adequately for the required
increases in essential services that Africa’s burgeoning child
population will require. A key issue that requires urgent attention
is birth registration: at present, only 44 per cent of Africa’s births
are registered, leaving an estimated 85 million children under 5
unregistered.14 Eight of the 10 countries with the lowest levels
of birth registration are in sub-Saharan Africa.
Investment in equity-based approaches to programming and
policy for children are more imperative than ever, if we are
to avert growth in the absolute number of Africa’s poor and
extreme poor children and families in the decades to come. As
Chapter 1 attests, these are the groups with the highest fertility
and mortality rates among women and children, and most
often the least able to access and utilize essential services.
In addition, programmes and policies must adapt and focus
on the changing nature of Africa’s poor, which may well
increasingly become stratified along ethnic lines and will
almost certainly become increasingly concentrated in both
villages and slums.
Climate change will cause new sources of risk and
vulnerability that have implications for Africa’s
demographic transition
Perhaps more than any other continent, African nations are set
to see a multiplicity of risks from climate change, particularly
warming, drought, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity. Six
of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change rated
by Maplecroft15 in late 2013 are in Africa. Three of Africa’s most
populous countries, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the
Congo and Ethiopia, which currently are home to one third of
Africa’s children, number among these six. And these three
countries alone will add an additional 134 million children in
the next 35 years. Unless we change our approach to the
14 United Nations Children’s Fund, Every Child’s Birth Right: Inequities and trends in birth
registration, UNICEF, New York, 2013.
15 Maplecroft, Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2014, October 2013, http://maplecroft.com.
46
environment radically, Africa’s children face an uncertain future
from the direct and indirect risk of climate change. Among
the effects are likely to be a rise in fragility; deterioration of
environmental conditions; soaring migration as desertification
and scarcity will drive migrants to the cities and to other regions;
and delta cities threatened by rising sea levels.
Parts of Africa already face considerable shortages of vital
services and resources such as water and food. Without
adequate planning and preparation, Africa’s demographic
expansion is likely to result in increased scarcity of vital
resources, including food, water and energy. Twice the people
will need at least twice the resources and probably more.
Better resource planning and management will be imperative
if shortages of vital goods and services are to be averted.
In the decades to come, Africa’s demand for energy is likely
to soar, for everything from lighting homes and streets, to
providing power for business and public services. Rapid
urbanization and a growing middle class will only intensify
the demand for energy. Africa has the potential to harness
a variety of energy sources: hydrocarbons, hydroelectricity,
wind and solar among them. With many of its population still
not reliant on power driven by fossil fuels, and in the interests
of its children and the environment, Africa also has a perhaps
unique opportunity among all regions to focus on building
renewable and sustainable sources of energy for its rapidly
expanding population, and to build a sustainable environment
for its children.
Child mortality, undernutrition, poverty, desperation
and crises will increasingly become pressing issues
in urban areas of Africa, and development initiatives
must adapt accordingly
Urbanization also poses a growing challenge to realizing the
rights of Africa’s poorest children in particular. In the absence
of new models and strategies for absorbing internal migrants
and helping to realize their rights, Africa faces a rise in its
slum population, particularly in its megacities. The rural poor
migrants will bring their deprivations of child mortality,
undernutrition and poverty with them to the cities, and it is
likely that the number of under-five and under-18 deaths in
urban areas will increase in the coming years, even if though
the majority will still take place in rural areas. And emerging
challenges, such as traffic accidents among adolescents
and urban youth violence, will only heighten as a threat to
childhood in urban Africa.
Generation 2030 | Africa
For adolescents and youth, an increasingly urban Africa in
the coming decades will bring to the fore the attendant
problems of urban unemployment and underemployment,
and the hopelessness of bleak economic prospects for urban
youth that is currently being experienced in other world
regions, with attendant potential to spur disillusionment and
disenfranchisement among youth. This, combined with other
factors such as sprawling slums, could spill over into increasing
urban violence and crime. Much more must therefore be done
to address the needs of Africa’s urban adolescents and youth.
Education systems, in particular, along with health care, must
increasingly focus on quality of outcomes, and also on curricula
that link achievements and learning in schools and colleges to
the evolving needs of the African labour market. But other
actions, such as civic participation, prevention of substance
abuse, and recreational activities, to name but three, will also
be important to meet Africa’s children’s social and civic rights.
Much of the focus of child survival and development efforts
of recent decades in Africa has been to step up rural-based
programmes through emphasis on community-based
approaches targeted at the poorest and most disadvantaged.
These have often yielded substantial results, as is seen by
the progress made in many African countries towards the
Millennium Development Goals. Programmes in rural areas
need to expand: Africa will remain a rural continent for the
foreseeable future. But with many rural inhabitants rapidly
moving themselves and their families to the cities — and this
trend likely to intensify if economic growth remains rapid — a
two-pronged approach is now required, one that prioritizes
and adapts programming and policy to slums as well as
villages. Scaling up urban programming for Africa is no longer
optional but increasingly imperative.
Building resilience for Africa’s children in the
many countries facing situations of fragility will
be critical to realizing their rights
The scale of emergency response to natural disasters and
conflict is likely to expand, given the likelihood of increasing
numbers among the poorest regions and communities of the
continent, who are also the most impacted by these crises.
National, regional and international emergency programming
must be prepared to scale up efforts in these areas and work
with African governments to improve disaster risk reduction,
preparedness and resilience.
The fragility of many African nations is also a factor sustaining
high fertility rates. Fragile states tend to have higher rates of
child mortality than non-fragile states, sustaining incentives
to maintain high levels of fertility (although fertility levels may
decline during certain types of humanitarian crises and conflicts
© UNICEF-NYHQ2011-0956-Ramoneda
47
periodically). They also tend to have high rates of illiteracy and
extreme poverty and marginalization, complicating efforts
at extending reproductive health services. When conflict is
present, the challenges are magnified further, as systems
break down further.
Building resilience in Africa, through peace-building, risk
and foresight-based planning, creation of social safety nets
and integrating humanitarian and development work, will be
critical to both help support Africa’s growing child population
in fragile states and also to reduce their fragility in the future.
Approaches such as the Peacebuilding, Education and
Advocacy programme, introduced in several African nations
and which, among other things, seeks to increase the capacity
of parents, children and other stakeholders to prevent, reduce
and cope with conflict and promote peace, will need to be
expanded to help ensure that Africa’s children grow up in a
continent of stability, security and prosperity.
Tackling extreme poverty and investing in
poor children in Africa now will be critical to
provide better and more sustainable future living
standards for all, and to permanently reduce
future poverty and inequity
If current demographic trends continue, and Africa’s
economic growth rate remains steady or falters, there is a
strong possibility that millions more children will grow up in
extreme poverty. Even though Africa currently has one of the
world’s fastest GDP growth rates, most of its population is
missing out on this economic boom, which in many countries
is being driven by extractive industries and commodity-based
exports. Poverty remains stubbornly high, particularly in subSaharan Africa, and inequality within countries is often as
pronounced as in other more affluent regions, and sometimes
more. In addition, World Bank data for sub-Saharan Africa in
26 countries with data available shows that more than half of
children under 18 are living in extremely poverty on less than
US$1.25 per day.
This scenario may be reversed, however, through sustained
investments in Africa’s children and youth — in quality
48
education and health care; in adequate nutrition, water
and sanitation; in improved protection systems against
violence, exploitation and abuse; in initiatives to lower rates
of child marriage and labour; through fostering a culture of
entrepreneurship and empowerment; and by implementing
inclusive and sustainable policies that act against all forms of
discrimination against children, and seek to protect Africa’s
unique environment for current and future generations.
A first step must be a keen global and regional discussion on
how to vastly reduce extreme poverty in Africa within the next
decade. And this should take place within the context of the
post-2015 agenda and the emerging conversation on how this
agenda will be financed. A new debate on equity for Africa’s
children must emerge so that another generation of children
on this continent will not be lost to poverty, fragility and
inequality. All stakeholders face the challenge of supporting
faster and more sustainable human development in Africa in
the 21st century.
The purpose of the Generation 2030 series on child
demographics is not to answer all of the many policy questions
its analysis raises but rather to begin to pose the questions
and spark debate and discourse that will hopefully lead to
decisive and determined action. There are a growing number
of forums and conversations on the future of Africa, and
these are spurring a rich dialogue and diverse policy options.
Fewer of these forums, however, have explicitly focused on
Africa’s children, and fewer still on the seismic demographic
shifts for them that will be a leading determinant of their lives
and those of their children in the remainder of this century.
UNICEF considers it imperative that a discourse takes place
on Africa’s child demographics, poverty and inequity and
rights, and that all the many stakeholders that will help to
determine the continent’s future, including governments and
donors, the private sector, civil society organizations, religious
leaders, and children themselves, be included and have a
voice. It is time to acknowledge our shared responsibility to
the future of Africa and take the policy decisions required for
all Africa’s children, present and future, to finally realize all of
their rights.
2 | Policy issues
© UNICEF-NYHQ2014-0707-Eseibo
Generation 2030 | Africa
Appendix and tables
49
APPENDIX
FIG A1
Trends in total fertility rates in countries by UNECA region, 1950-2050, number of children per woman
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
8.5
Cameroon
7.5
Central African
Republic
Chad
6.5
Congo
5.5
Equatorial
Guinea
Gabon
4.5
Sao Tome &
Principe
Central Africa
3.5
2.5
Africa
1.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
Southern Africa
North Africa
8.5
8.5
Algeria
7.5
Egypt
Libya
6.5
Angola
Botswana
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Southern Africa
Africa
World
7.5
6.5
Mauritania
5.5
Morocco
Sudan
4.5
Tunisia
North Africa
3.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
Africa
2.5
World
2.5
19
50
-1
95
5
19
65
-1
97
0
19
80
-1
98
5
19
95
-2
00
0
20
10
-2
01
5
20
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
04
5
19
50
-1
95
5
19
65
-1
97
0
19
80
-1
98
5
19
95
-2
00
0
20
10
-2
01
5
20
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
04
5
1.5
1.5
8.5
West Africa
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
19
50
-1
95
5
19
65
-1
97
0
19
80
-1
98
5
19
95
-2
00
0
20
10
-2
01
5
20
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
04
5
1.5
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
50
Comoros
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Rwanda
Seychelles
Somalia
South Sudan
Uganda
United Republic
of Tanzania
Eastern Africa
Africa
World
19
50
-1
95
5
19
65
-1
97
0
19
80
-1
98
5
19
95
-2
00
0
20
10
-2
01
5
20
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
04
5
19
50
-1
95
5
19
65
-1
97
0
19
80
-1
98
5
19
95
-2
00
0
20
10
-2
01
5
20
25
-2
03
0
20
40
-2
04
5
World
8.5
Benin
Burkina Faso
Cabo Verde
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Togo
West Africa
Africa
World
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG A2
Children under 5, adolescents, and persons aged 60 and over by region, 1950-2100
A. Number of children under 5
B. Share of children under 5
450
100
400
Rest of the world
350
Population (in millions)
100
75
300
75
Africa
250
200
% 50
50 %
150
100
25
50
25
Asia
0
1950
1980
2010
Africa
2040
2070
2100
Rest of the world
Asia
0
1950
C. Number of adolescents
2040
2070
100
2100
100
Rest of the world
800
Population (in millions)
2010
D. Share of adolescents
900
700
75
600
75
Africa
500
400
% 50
50 %
300
200
25
100
0
1950
1980
2010
Africa
2040
Asia
2070
2100
25
Asia
0
1950
Rest of the world
E. Number of persons aged 60 and over
0
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
F. Share of persons aged 60 and over
1,600
Popualtion (in millions)
0
1980
100
1,400
1,200
75
100
Rest of the world
75
1,000
800
% 50
600
400
25
200
0
1950
1980
Africa
2010
2040
Asia
2070
Rest of the world
2100
50 %
Africa
Asia
25
0
1950
0
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
51
APPENDIX
FIG A3
Children under 5, adolescents, and persons aged 60 and over by UNECA region, 1950-2100
B. Share of children under 5
A. Number of children under 5
Population (in millions)
160
Southern Africa
% 50
40
1980
2010
West Africa
North Africa
2040
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
2070
2100
Southern Africa
50 %
Eastern Africa
25
25
West Africa
0
1950
C. Number of adolescents
1980
2010
2040
2070
0
2100
D. Share of adolescents
300
Population (in millions)
75
75
80
0
100
Central Africa
250
100
North Africa
200
75
75
Southern Africa
150
% 50
100
50 %
Eastern Africa
50
0
1950
25
1980
West Africa
North Africa
2010
2040
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
2070
25
2100
Southern Africa
West Africa
0
1950
E. Number of persons aged 60 and over
1980
2010
2040
2070
100
100
Central Africa
Southern Africa
300
75
75
North Africa
200
50 %
% 50
100
West Africa
25
25
0
1950
0
2100
F. Share of persons aged 60 and over
400
Population (in millions)
100
North Africa
120
1950
1980
West Africa
North Africa
2010
2040
Eastern Africa
Central Africa
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
52
Central Africa
100
2070
Eastern Africa
2100
Southern Africa
0
0
1950
1980
2010
2040
2070
2100
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG A4
Top 10 countries in Africa with the greatest numbers of children under age 5 and adolescents, 2015 and 2050
A. Children under 5, in millions (% of Africa)
2015
2050
Nigeria, 32 (18%)
Other countries, 72
Nigeria, 58 (22%)
(40%)
Democratic
Republic of
the Congo,
19 (7%)
Other countries, 102
(38%)
Ethiopia, 15 (8%)
Democratic
Republic of
the Congo,
12 (7%)
Egypt, 9 (5%)
Algeria, 5 (3%)
United Republic of
Tanzania, 9 (5%)
Uganda, 7 (4%)
South Africa, 5 (3%)
Sudan, 6 (3%)
Kenya, 7 (4%)
United Republic
of Tanzania, 16
(6%)
Mozambique,
7 (3%)
Ethiopia, 16 (6%)
Sudan, 8 (3%)
Uganda, 13 (5%)
Niger, 12 (4%)
Egypt, 9 (3%)
Kenya, 10 (4%)
B. Adolescents, in millions (% of Africa)
2050
2015
Nigeria, 41 (16%)
Nigeria, 96 (20%)
Other countries, 101
Ethiopia, 25 (10%)
(39%)
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo, 17
(6%)
Egypt, 16 (6%)
Mozambique, 7 (3%)
Sudan, 9 (4%)
South Africa, 10 (4%)
Other countries, 179
(38%)
United Republic of
Tanzania, 12 (5%)
Kenya, 11 (4%)
Uganda, 10 (4%)
Ethiopia, 32
(7%)
Democratic
Republic of
the Congo,
32 (7%)
United Republic
of Tanzania, 27
(6%)
Uganda, 22 (5%)
Mozambique,
13 (5%)
Sudan, 15 (3%)
Kenya, 19 (4%)
Niger, 17 (4%)
Egypt, 18 (4%)
Note: The first number cited for each country refers to the child population in millions, the second to its share of the African population.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
53
APPENDIX
Top 10 countries in Africa with the largest absolute and percentage increases in children under 5
and adolescents from 2015-2050
A. By largest absolute increases, children under 5 in millions
Nigeria 32
+26
4 +8
+26
32
9
+7
4 +8
12
+6
9
+7
7 +6
12
+6
3 +4
7 +6
3 +3
3 +4
7 +3
3 +3
5 +3
7 +3
4 +3
5 +3
2015
Increase from 2015 to 2050
Madagascar 4 +3
Niger
Nigeria
United Republic
of Tanzania
Niger
Democratic Republic
of the
Congo
United
Republic
of Tanzania
Uganda
Democratic Republic
of theZambia
Congo
Uganda
Mali
Zambia
Kenya
Mali
Mozambique
Kenya
Madagascar
Mozambique
2015
Increase from 2015 to 2050
C. By largest absolute increases, adolescents in millions
Nigeria 41
+54
United Republic
of Tanzania
Nigeria
Democratic Republic
of
the
Congo
United Republic
of Tanzania
Uganda
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Niger
Uganda
Kenya
Niger
Ethiopia
Kenya
Mali
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Mali
Angola
Mozambique
12 +16
41
+54
+15
17
12 +16
10 +13
+15
17
5 +12
10 +13
11 +8
5 +12
25
+8
11 +8
4 +7
25
+8
7 +6
4 +7
5 +6
7 +6
from 2015 to 2050
2015
Angola 5 Increase
+6
2015
Increase from 2015 to 2050
B. By largest percentage increases, children under 5 in millions (% increase)
Niger 4 +8 (191%)
Zambia
Niger
Mali
Zambia
United Republic
of Tanzania
Mali
Nigeria
United Republic
of Tanzania
Malawi
Nigeria
Somalia
Malawi
Uganda
Somalia
Burundi
Uganda
Gambia
Burundi
3 +4 (128%)
4 +8 (191%)
3 +3 (109%)
3 +4 (128%)
9
+7 (83%)
3 +3 (109%)
32
+26 (82%)
9
+7 (83%)
3 +2 (79%)
32
+26 (82%)
2 +2 (77%)
3 +2 (79%)
7 +6 (76%)
2 +2 (77%)
2 +2 (75%)
7 +6 (76%)
0 +0.3 (71%)
2 +2 (75%)
Increase from 2015 to 2050
2015
Gambia 0 +0.3 (71%)
2015
-
Increase from 2015 to 2050
D. By largest percentage increases, adolescents in millions, Niger increase)
(%
5 +12 (267%)
Mali
Niger
Zambia
Mali
Burundi
Zambia
Nigeria
Burundi
United Republic
of Tanzania
Nigeria
Gambia
United Republic
Uganda
of Tanzania
Gambia
Somalia
Uganda
Chad
Somalia
4 +7 (172%)
5 +12 (267%)
4 +6 (163%)
4 +7 (172%)
2 +3 (142%)
4 +6 (163%)
41
+54 (132%)
2 +3 (142%)
12 +16 (130%)
41
+54 (132%)
0.5 +1 (128%)
12 +16 (130%)
10 +13 (128%)
0.5 +1 (128%)
3 +3 (122%)
10 +13 (128%)
3 +4 (117%)
3 +3 (122%)
2015
from 2015 to 2050
Chad 3 Increase
+4 (117%)
2015
Increase from 2015 to 2050
Note: The first number cited for each country refers to the population in 2015, the second to the increase from 2015 to 2050. Together they represent the population in 2050.
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
54
FIG A5
Generation 2030 | Africa
FIG A6
Population by age and sex in Africa, 1950, 2015, 2050 and 2100 (in millions)
Adults (18 and above)
Children (under 18)
1950
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
200
Male
100
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
Female
0
100
200
200
2015
Male
100
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
Female
0
100
200
200
2050
Male
100
80+
75 -79
70 -74
65 -69
60 -64
55 -59
50 -54
45 -49
40 -44
35 -39
30 -34
25 -29
20 -24
15 -19
10 -14
5 -9
0 -4
Female
0
100
200
200
2100
Female
Male
100
0
100
200
Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN WPP 2012 Revision.
Regional classification and notes
Averages for regions and the world presented in this report are calculated
using data from countries and areas as classified below. Numbers and
percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals.
Countries listed individually are those with 90,000 inhabitants or more in
2012; the others are included in the aggregates but are not listed
separately.
Continents
Asia
Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cyprus, Democratic People's
Republic of Korea, Georgia, India, Indonesia, Iran (Islamic Republic of),
Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's
Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar,
Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia,
Singapore, Sri Lanka, State of Palestine, Syrian Arab Republic, Tajikistan,
Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates,
Uzbekistan, Viet Nam, Yemen
Africa
Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi,
Cameroon, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo,
Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Egypt,
Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,
Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,
Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone,
Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo, Tunisia,
Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Rest of the world Albania, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina,
Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Bolivia
(Plurinational State of), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada,
Chile, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia,
Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana,
Haiti, Holy See, Honduras, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Jamaica,
Kiribati, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Marshall
Islands, Mexico, Micronesia (Federated States of), Monaco, Montenegro,
Nauru, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niue, Norway, Palau,
Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Republic
of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint
Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands,
Spain, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland,
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago,
Tuvalu, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay,
Vanuatu, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Central Africa Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo,
Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe
Eastern Africa Burundi, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles,
Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania
North Africa Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia
Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe
West Africa Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, Togo
African Union regions
Central Africa Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao
Tome and Principe
Eastern Africa Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar,
Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda,
United Republic of Tanzania
Northern Africa Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Tunisia, Western Sahara
Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Western Africa Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, Togo
55
AFRICA
demographic indicators population
Total population (thousands)
Child population under 5 (thousands)
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
1950
1980
2015
2030
Countries or areas
8,872
19,475
40,633
48,561
54,522
1,403
3,553
4,633
3,593
Algeria
4,148
7,637
22,820
34,783
54,324
703
1,491
4,145
5,495
Angola
2,255
3,718
10,880
15,507
22,137
309
680
1,708
2,084
Benin
413
998
2,056
2,348
2,780
62
188
230
219
Botswana
4,284
6,823
17,915
26,564
40,932
692
1,278
3,088
3,963
Burkina Faso
2,309
4,127
10,813
16,392
26,691
377
782
2,004
2,479
Burundi
178
302
508
577
636
19
52
48
41
Cabo Verde
4,466
8,932
23,393
33,074
48,599
708
1,635
3,746
4,536
Cameroon
1,327
2,274
4,803
6,318
8,491
190
385
696
772
Central African Republic
2,502
4,513
13,606
20,878
33,516
376
859
2,560
3,395
Chad
156
314
770
1,057
1,508
22
57
118
142
Comoros
808
1,796
4,671
6,754
10,577
129
321
766
976
Congo
2,630
8,266
21,295
29,227
42,339
453
1,599
3,389
4,057
Côte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic
12,184
26,357
71,246
103,743
155,291
2,170
4,780
12,357
15,738
of the Congo
62
359
900
1,075
1,244
12
68
111
101
Djibouti
21,514
44,932
84,706
102,553
121,798
3,731
6,894
9,285
8,893
Egypt
226
221
799
1,139
1,623
30
30
119
141
Equatorial Guinea
1,141
2,415
6,738
9,782
14,314
213
449
1,104
1,238
Eritrea
18,128
35,241
98,942
137,670
187,573
3,328
6,705
14,577
16,224
Ethiopia
473
726
1,751
2,382
3,302
53
114
252
283
Gabon
271
604
1,970
3,056
4,866
45
118
359
489
Gambia
4,981
10,802
26,984
35,264
45,670
925
1,933
3,735
3,996
Ghana
3,094
4,495
12,348
17,322
24,466
449
776
1,945
2,329
Guinea
518
818
1,788
2,473
3,504
82
142
279
338
Guinea-Bissau
6,077
16,268
46,749
66,306
97,173
1,056
3,347
7,221
8,697
Kenya
734
1,307
2,120
2,419
2,818
119
224
265
256
Lesotho
930
1,893
4,503
6,395
9,392
145
348
701
867
Liberia
1,113
3,078
6,317
7,459
8,350
172
565
631
493
Libya
4,084
8,747
24,235
36,000
55,498
631
1,647
3,770
5,008
Madagascar
2,881
6,237
17,309
25,960
41,203
556
1,244
2,911
3,950
Malawi
4,638
6,735
16,259
26,034
45,168
730
1,203
3,129
4,589
Mali
660
1,534
4,080
5,640
7,921
116
273
602
722
Mauritania
493
966
1,254
1,288
1,231
89
109
71
69
Mauritius
8,986
19,799
33,955
39,190
42,884
1,388
3,229
3,680
3,009
Morocco
6,442
12,142
27,122
38,876
59,929
1,100
2,172
4,538
5,941
Mozambique
485
1,013
2,392
3,042
3,744
76
188
288
308
Namibia
2,560
5,834
19,268
34,513
69,410
515
1,161
3,991
6,828
Niger
37,860
73,698
183,523
273,120
440,355
6,330
13,373
32,160
43,074
Nigeria
2,186
5,141
12,428
17,771
25,378
421
1,061
1,935
2,257
Rwanda
95
203
278
388
10
19
31
34
60
Sao Tome and Principe
2,477
5,569
14,967
21,856
32,933
418
1,087
2,494
3,051
Senegal
36
66
94
98
100
4
8
8
6
Seychelles
1,944
3,180
6,319
8,058
10,296
311
579
949
1,040
Sierra Leone
2,264
6,090
11,123
16,880
27,076
389
1,076
2,033
2,786
Somalia
13,683
29,077
53,491
58,096
63,405
2,088
4,505
5,268
4,796
South Africa
2,583
4,702
12,152
17,297
24,760
462
849
1,882
2,318
South Sudan
5,734
14,418
39,613
55,078
77,138
1,030
2,729
5,850
7,038
Sudan
273
603
1,286
1,516
1,815
49
119
172
168
Swaziland
1,395
2,721
7,171
10,015
14,521
235
517
1,135
1,322
Togo
3,099
6,308
11,235
12,561
13,192
481
993
930
751
Tunisia
5,158
12,550
40,141
63,388
104,078
945
2,439
7,470
10,183
Uganda
United Republic of
7,650
18,687
52,291
79,354
129,417
1,461
3,542
8,992
12,070
Tanzania
2,372
5,847
15,520
24,957
44,206
447
1,123
2,841
4,155
Zambia
2,747
7,289
15,046
20,292
26,254
442
1,454
2,118
2,244
Zimbabwe
Source:
United
Nations,
Department
of
Economic
and
Social
Affairs,
Population
Division,
World
Population
Prospects:
The
2012
Revision,
United
Nations,
New
York,
2013.
56
2050
3,772
6,629
2,382
202
4,906
3,504
34
5,396
817
4,245
169
1,298
4,989
18,850
97
8,682
159
1,427
16,149
322
615
4,249
2,625
396
10,477
240
1,034
461
6,407
5,219
6,535
853
59
2,872
7,300
289
11,627
58,473
2,466
38
3,848
6
1,078
3,598
4,432
2,654
7,987
163
1,613
727
13,136
16,477
6,476
2,261
demographic indicators population
Adolescents (thousands)
1950
1,990
882
414
97
933
498
42
939
263
506
33
171
594
1980
4,624
1,740
830
232
1,565
936
85
1,937
490
963
72
403
1,690
2015
6,047
5,449
2,528
443
4,279
2,325
102
5,416
1,097
3,330
172
1,036
4,851
2030
8,942
8,131
3,397
458
6,110
3,965
88
7,396
1,338
5,002
229
1,519
6,535
% children under 18
in total population
Child population under 18 (thousands)
2050
6,928
11,570
4,300
423
8,484
5,620
73
9,567
1,538
7,236
302
2,191
8,496
1950
4,185
1,963
912
197
2,015
1,088
71
2,042
557
1,093
69
373
1,303
1980
10,313
4,046
1,907
530
3,556
2,104
165
4,537
1,100
2,307
162
918
4,225
2015
13,339
12,254
5,312
813
9,286
5,512
175
11,496
2,203
7,461
370
2,281
10,156
2030
14,699
17,010
6,763
810
12,508
7,996
155
14,739
2,593
10,509
454
3,080
13,135
2050
13,032
22,293
8,137
746
16,428
11,398
126
18,303
2,855
14,114
576
4,301
16,587
2015
32.8
53.7
48.8
39.5
51.8
51.0
34.4
49.1
45.9
54.8
48.0
48.8
47.7
Countries or areas
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Côte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic
2,680
5,870
16,691
23,648
32,149
6,087
13,421
36,497
49,032
62,530
51.2
of the Congo
14
88
177
212
193
33
193
354
377
352
39.3
Djibouti
4,411
10,245
15,625
18,364
17,884
9,762
21,094
30,760
32,580
31,934
36.3
Egypt
43
65
165
237
294
90
115
356
466
551
44.5
Equatorial Guinea
258
562
1,485
2,240
2,691
590
1,277
3,309
4,239
5,027
49.1
Eritrea
3,971
7,374
24,596
29,265
32,451
9,128
17,964
48,229
55,707
58,408
48.7
Ethiopia
80
139
372
504
599
161
323
778
961
1,121
44.4
Gabon
58
122
458
717
1,047
128
304
1,031
1,507
2,043
52.3
Gambia
1,120
2,529
5,851
7,290
8,106
2,567
5,654
11,952
13,705
14,972
44.3
Ghana
628
953
2,833
3,816
4,744
1,330
2,151
5,978
7,578
8,973
48.4
Guinea
103
148
401
538
691
231
397
849
1,084
1,328
47.5
Guinea-Bissau
1,277
3,848
10,535
14,453
18,822
2,799
9,207
22,513
28,419
35,818
48.2
Kenya
155
308
493
514
487
343
668
906
932
873
42.7
Lesotho
210
418
1,044
1,395
1,849
446
969
2,203
2,794
3,523
48.9
Liberia
226
699
1,118
1,219
947
497
1,615
2,176
1,994
1,693
34.4
Libya
858
1,991
5,714
7,835
10,965
1,814
4,618
11,776
16,020
21,333
48.6
Madagascar
638
1,403
4,106
5,977
8,746
1,498
3,336
8,932
12,369
17,192
51.6
Malawi
934
1,475
3,798
6,297
10,337
2,075
3,348
8,800
13,716
20,958
54.1
Mali
151
361
902
1,196
1,516
333
799
1,879
2,358
2,894
46.0
Mauritania
112
230
185
141
128
255
412
293
251
220
23.4
Mauritius
2,100
5,034
5,814
6,967
5,706
4,183
10,198
11,241
11,774
10,341
33.1
Morocco
1,386
2,681
6,502
9,042
12,851
3,086
6,087
14,034
18,628
24,647
51.7
Mozambique
98
230
538
581
593
216
537
998
1,084
1,051
41.7
Namibia
611
1,301
4,534
8,350
16,629
1,438
3,133
10,918
19,413
35,569
56.7
Niger
8,196
15,958
41,363
63,737
95,820
18,147
36,974
93,172
133,296
191,169
50.8
Nigeria
492
1,164
3,021
3,885
4,697
1,094
2,798
6,126
7,547
8,698
49.3
Rwanda
7
22
44
60
73
21
51
96
114
136
47.4
Sao Tome and Principe
535
1,228
3,426
5,009
6,637
1,184
2,947
7,456
9,934
12,897
49.8
Senegal
6
16
13
14
12
13
30
25
24
21
26.5
Seychelles
405
662
1,461
1,730
1,981
884
1,579
3,003
3,393
3,710
47.5
Sierra Leone
476
1,351
2,679
3,967
5,940
1,068
3,047
5,967
8,485
11,767
53.6
Somalia
2,825
6,561
9,606
10,215
9,423
6,101
13,949
18,459
17,809
16,532
34.5
South Africa
570
1,047
2,828
3,790
4,778
1,292
2,389
5,858
7,565
9,062
48.2
South Sudan
1,256
3,314
9,109
11,631
14,578
2,865
7,701
18,662
23,007
27,440
47.1
Sudan
60
144
295
335
330
135
335
567
608
593
44.1
Swaziland
294
611
1,606
2,222
2,828
661
1,434
3,440
4,349
5,448
48.0
Togo
741
1,562
1,607
1,813
1,384
1,458
3,109
3,079
3,024
2,552
27.4
Tunisia
1,114
2,903
9,853
15,254
22,481
2,561
6,767
22,020
31,823
43,859
54.9
Uganda
United Republic
1,734
4,280
11,932
18,344
27,462
4,009
9,906
26,726
37,834
54,282
51.1
of Tanzania
529
1,345
3,713
5,874
9,753
1,221
3,147
8,247
12,616
20,284
53.1
Zambia
600
1,738
3,422
4,330
4,440
1,324
4,059
6,807
8,044
8,101
45.2
Zimbabwe
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2013.
57
AFRICA
demographic indicators Birth, fertility and urbanization
Cumulative number of births (thousands)
Number of births (thousands)
Countries or areas
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Côte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
South Sudan
Sudan
Swaziland
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
United Republic of Tanzania
Zambia
1950
475
225
90
20
202
117
9
192
55
118
7
35
136
1980
863
405
176
44
336
210
13
412
97
225
14
76
400
2015
944
982
387
47
714
475
10
851
161
611
26
171
767
2030
711
1,240
459
44
876
560
8
991
168
767
32
216
882
2050
758
1,418
509
40
1,031
740
7
1,136
170
908
36
275
1,050
1980-2014
2015-2030
2031-2050
28,109
23,563
9,764
1,665
17,793
10,836
436
21,955
4,639
13,902
689
4,070
20,091
13,113
17,858
6,792
736
12,721
8,254
146
14,752
2,657
11,055
455
3,042
13,188
14,743
26,877
9,789
842
19,282
13,412
146
21,482
3,395
16,961
687
4,980
19,490
568
1,228
2,988
3,625
4,124
72,839
53,207
78,426
3
1,117
9
54
925
14
11
222
147
34
315
31
43
55
202
138
224
32
22
461
321
21
141
1,758
117
3
123
2
86
113
618
121
274
13
67
161
273
379
112
136
14
1,697
9
112
1,751
28
31
474
215
38
807
54
93
129
389
339
331
66
22
770
563
43
322
3,441
277
4
271
2
154
257
1,019
228
653
29
130
229
617
875
271
344
24
1,899
28
238
3,170
54
83
807
445
66
1,579
57
156
125
830
678
760
136
14
748
1,030
61
954
7,441
422
7
551
1
225
479
1,087
426
1,300
37
253
188
1,696
1,998
658
459
21
1,806
31
260
3,377
60
109
854
513
77
1,878
52
187
97
1,058
886
1,053
160
14
602
1,304
62
1,552
9,616
476
7
664
1
236
628
982
504
1,523
35
289
146
2,221
2,633
927
460
20
1,722
33
287
3,276
66
131
881
560
86
2,174
48
214
90
1,326
1,129
1,416
183
12
574
1,539
58
2,522
12,391
503
8
810
1
232
775
888
557
1,680
33
336
145
2,751
3,461
1,398
455
756
61,197
680
5,773
90,614
1,407
1,866
22,352
11,727
1,793
40,947
1,983
4,061
4,357
21,017
17,461
17,043
3,446
676
24,557
26,688
1,935
19,645
178,567
11,783
178
13,527
57
6,579
12,268
37,842
10,331
35,140
1,226
6,499
6,892
38,589
47,970
15,047
13,920
362
29,447
468
3,946
52,879
910
1,539
13,244
7,699
1,141
27,454
884
2,735
1,754
15,192
12,503
14,468
2,362
225
10,591
18,603
1,002
19,837
135,513
7,205
109
9,660
21
3,687
8,872
16,371
7,556
22,609
583
4,310
2,688
31,361
36,736
12,590
7,518
414
35,929
642
5,639
66,975
1,278
2,457
17,628
10,840
1,642
41,160
1,010
4,052
1,897
24,005
20,321
25,118
3,473
247
11,780
28,648
1,197
41,107
223,977
9,955
158
15,008
24
4,702
14,176
18,858
10,664
32,267
689
6,343
2,885
50,464
61,911
23,402
9,278
Zimbabwe
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2013.
58
demographic indicators Birth, fertility and urbanization
Total fertility (children per woman)
Percentage of population residing in urban areas
1950-1955 1980-1985 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
7.6
7.0
5.9
6.5
6.1
6.8
6.6
5.5
5.5
6.1
6.0
5.7
6.8
6.5
7.2
7.0
6.0
7.2
7.4
6.1
6.7
6.0
7.0
7.1
6.0
7.3
2.8
5.9
4.9
2.6
5.6
6.1
2.3
4.8
4.4
6.3
4.7
5.0
4.9
2.1
4.1
3.6
2.0
4.1
4.5
1.8
3.6
3.0
4.3
3.7
3.9
3.7
1.9
3.1
2.9
1.8
3.3
3.6
1.7
3.0
2.5
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.2
22.2
7.6
5.0
2.7
3.8
1.7
14.2
9.3
14.4
4.5
6.6
24.9
10.0
43.5
19.8
27.3
16.5
8.8
4.3
23.5
31.9
33.9
18.8
23.2
47.9
36.8
70.7
44.1
44.0
57.4
29.9
12.1
65.5
54.4
40.0
22.5
28.3
65.4
54.2
77.4
54.4
51.3
62.2
41.0
17.3
73.0
62.0
46.3
26.6
31.5
71.1
63.0
82.1
63.8
61.3
69.9
52.0
26.3
77.6
70.0
56.9
37.1
38.2
77.2
70.9
6.0
6.7
6.0
4.1
3.2
19.1
27.1
42.5
50.4
60.4
6.3
6.6
5.5
7.0
7.2
4.0
5.3
6.4
6.0
7.4
7.5
5.8
6.3
7.3
7.3
6.8
6.5
6.3
5.9
6.6
6.6
6.0
6.9
6.4
8.0
6.2
6.6
5.0
5.8
7.3
6.3
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.3
5.2
5.8
6.6
7.4
5.7
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.7
7.2
5.5
7.0
7.3
6.1
7.6
7.1
6.3
2.3
5.4
6.4
6.2
7.8
6.8
8.4
6.2
7.2
3.5
7.0
7.1
4.6
6.8
6.6
6.5
7.1
4.9
7.1
6.6
7.0
6.7
3.4
2.8
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.1
5.8
3.9
5.0
5.0
4.4
3.1
4.8
2.4
4.5
5.4
6.9
4.7
1.5
2.8
5.2
3.1
7.6
6.0
4.6
4.1
5.0
2.2
4.7
6.6
2.4
5.0
4.5
3.4
4.7
2.0
5.9
5.2
5.7
3.5
2.5
2.3
3.2
3.2
2.9
3.0
4.5
3.0
3.5
3.8
3.3
2.3
3.6
1.7
3.5
4.1
5.5
3.6
1.6
2.2
3.9
2.3
6.4
4.8
3.1
3.1
3.8
1.9
3.5
4.7
2.0
3.5
3.3
2.5
3.5
1.8
4.2
4.0
4.7
2.6
2.2
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.6
3.4
2.5
2.9
3.1
2.8
2.1
3.0
1.6
3.0
3.4
4.2
3.1
1.7
2.0
3.1
2.0
5.0
3.8
2.5
2.7
3.2
1.8
2.9
3.6
1.9
2.9
2.8
2.1
3.0
1.8
3.2
3.3
4.0
2.2
39.8
31.9
15.5
7.1
4.6
11.4
10.3
15.4
6.7
10.0
5.6
1.8
13.0
19.5
7.8
3.5
8.5
3.1
29.3
26.2
3.5
13.4
4.9
7.8
2.1
13.5
17.2
27.4
12.6
12.7
42.2
8.9
6.8
2.0
4.4
32.3
2.8
3.5
11.5
10.6
72.1
43.9
27.9
14.4
10.4
54.7
28.4
31.2
23.6
17.6
15.6
11.5
35.2
70.1
18.5
9.1
18.5
27.4
42.4
41.2
13.1
25.1
13.4
22.0
4.7
33.5
35.8
49.4
29.8
26.8
48.4
8.5
20.0
17.8
24.7
50.6
7.5
14.6
39.8
22.4
77.3
43.1
39.9
22.6
19.5
87.2
59.6
54.0
37.2
49.3
25.6
27.3
49.7
78.6
35.1
16.3
39.9
59.9
39.7
60.2
32.2
46.7
18.7
47.8
28.8
65.1
43.7
53.9
39.9
39.6
64.8
18.8
33.8
21.3
40.0
66.8
16.1
31.6
40.9
32.4
79.2
46.7
44.0
30.2
26.8
89.1
66.0
62.6
45.1
58.4
32.8
35.6
56.2
81.8
44.3
20.4
50.3
66.9
40.0
67.0
38.1
58.8
24.6
58.3
41.5
70.8
50.3
58.8
46.7
47.3
71.3
23.6
38.8
23.0
47.7
70.6
22.0
41.9
48.2
33.8
82.7
56.5
50.9
42.1
37.6
91.0
71.3
70.5
56.3
64.7
43.9
46.7
65.2
85.7
55.0
30.2
60.3
74.1
46.3
74.0
49.1
67.8
35.4
67.1
52.6
75.5
60.5
65.0
57.2
57.9
77.4
33.9
49.8
28.8
57.9
76.6
32.1
53.0
58.3
43.7
Countries or areas
Algeria
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Côte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
South Sudan
Sudan
Swaziland
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
United Republic of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2014.
59
WORLD
demographic indicators population
Total population (thousands)
Continents
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
UNECA* regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
North Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
African Union regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
World
Child population under 5 (thousands)
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
228,545
477,739
1,164,502
1,632,239
2,390,735
38,699
86,071
179,319
219,549
270,718
1,386,017
2,611,052
4,353,518
4,854,755
5,133,890
197,920
334,457
364,777
328,124
300,579
897,820
1,331,300
1,766,994
1,896,674
1,986,537
98,532
122,285
119,959
114,245
111,245
548,834
694,247
742,793
736,015
708,709
51,679
49,788
40,089
35,693
36,147
164,980
359,858
624,683
711,058
775,930
26,478
51,845
53,550
50,117
44,424
171,550
254,687
360,999
403,246
446,081
18,873
18,477
23,130
24,994
26,842
12,456
22,508
38,518
46,355
55,818
1,502
2,174
3,189
3,440
3,831
9,862
18,557
49,226
70,823
106,496
1,496
3,362
8,169
10,137
12,275
64,018
141,062
388,621
566,815
850,098
11,492
26,810
63,582
79,245
95,418
49,979
109,544
220,540
271,043
325,806
8,323
18,237
25,611
24,498
25,354
34,671
70,015
73,117
135,459
160,415
345,699
213,576
509,981
301,709
806,626
5,731
11,658
12,815
24,847
22,846
59,110
27,601
78,068
33,270
104,402
24,355
49,041
131,285
190,959
288,477
4,043
8,925
22,530
28,353
34,629
55,753
125,962
347,429
503,045
746,486
10,064
24,085
55,142
68,135
81,109
35,273
75,479
147,576
177,546
206,628
5,906
12,302
16,138
14,505
14,545
34,178
72,151
159,162
212,288
300,478
5,642
12,706
22,775
27,532
33,211
70,015
135,459
345,699
509,981
806,626
11,658
24,847
59,110
78,068
104,402
2,512,382
4,420,091
7,285,014
8,383,668
9,511,162
335,150
542,813
664,055
661,918
682,543
demographic indicators Birth, fertility and urbanization
Cumulative number of births (thousands)
Number of births (thousands)
Continents or areas
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
UNECA* regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
North Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
African Union regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
World
60
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
1980-2014
2015-2030
2031-2050
11,148
21,599
40,304
47,937
56,974
1,048,746
704,610
1,062,735
61,671
76,067
74,651
66,336
60,095
2,735,229
1,122,005
1,265,289
23,530
25,956
24,109
22,732
22,143
873,599
375,282
448,622
11,835
10,125
7,944
7,054
7,137
296,253
119,353
143,498
7,234
11,526
10,850
9,996
8,840
404,357
167,373
187,094
4,121
3,846
4,668
4,990
5,399
153,799
77,824
103,351
340
459
646
692
766
19,191
10,732
14,679
426
850
1,883
2,240
2,595
46,831
32,993
48,897
3,193
6,781
14,352
17,273
20,031
364,468
253,499
377,912
2,575
4,407
5,340
5,044
5,153
163,698
82,564
102,975
1,659
3,135
5,110
6,006
7,018
142,006
88,873
131,369
3,295
6,425
13,619
17,373
22,177
331,742
246,681
401,582
1,110
2,288
5,345
6,426
7,459
130,505
94,453
140,734
2,805
6,019
12,204
14,624
16,859
316,609
214,873
318,589
1,841
2,990
3,304
2,930
2,909
104,294
49,549
59,133
1,637
3,113
5,096
5,992
7,007
141,331
88,648
131,122
3,295
6,425
13,619
17,373
22,177
331,742
246,681
401,582
96,349
123,622
139,064
137,004
139,212
4,657,574
2,201,897
2,776,646
*United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2013.
demographic indicators population
Adolescents (thousands)
% children under 18
in total population
Child population under 18 (thousands)
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
1950
1980
2015
2030
2050
2015
49,325
107,547
256,989
356,115
469,767
108,996
243,910
547,128
710,913
908,799
47.0
287,908
593,364
692,192
710,300
630,924
591,001
1,155,862
1,272,651
1,232,930
1,111,709
29.2
159,431
240,379
239,100
241,940
228,129
307,027
433,885
430,003
424,530
405,749
24.3
97,503
109,051
75,195
80,192
72,378
172,465
187,598
139,263
136,803
130,596
18.7
35,000
82,880
111,475
104,791
94,375
76,333
166,809
196,876
185,222
165,061
31.5
24,994
44,167
46,688
50,109
53,847
53,973
71,556
83,003
90,139
96,418
23.0
1,934
4,281
5,742
6,848
7,529
4,257
7,922
10,862
12,367
13,674
28.2
2,010
4,020
11,460
16,056
21,500
4,338
9,351
24,670
32,461
41,381
50.1
13,981
31,502
92,022
127,100
168,562
31,646
73,882
195,283
255,523
323,133
50.3
10,875
25,839
40,221
50,131
48,944
23,282
54,829
81,134
89,437
89,886
36.8
7,381
15,078
16,612
29,574
34,752
78,534
45,598
117,229
58,742
172,019
16,338
33,392
37,106
68,742
72,310
173,730
90,161
243,330
112,531
341,868
45.1
50.3
50.8
5,188
10,825
30,476
43,669
59,268
11,513
24,877
66,680
89,489
115,309
12,171
28,240
82,300
111,260
145,499
27,590
66,469
172,228
221,754
276,865
49.6
7,523
17,522
25,392
31,651
28,761
16,241
36,995
51,417
54,861
52,286
34.8
7,268
16,383
34,567
45,457
58,614
16,084
36,695
72,017
89,910
112,311
45.2
15,078
29,574
78,534
117,229
172,019
33,392
68,742
173,730
243,330
341,868
50.3
496,665
941,290
1,188,281
1,308,355
1,328,820
1,007,024
1,833,657
2,249,782
2,368,372
2,426,257
30.9
Countries or areas
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
UNECA* regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
North Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
African Union regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
World
demographic indicators Birth, fertility and urbanization
Total fertility (children per woman)
Percentage of population residing in urban areas
1950-1955
1980-1985
2010-2015
2030-2035
2045-2050
6.6
6.5
4.7
3.7
3.1
1950
14.0
1980
26.7
2015
40.4
2030
47.1
2050
55.9
5.8
3.7
2.2
2
1.9
17.4
26.8
47.9
56.1
64.0
3.4
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.9
52.2
67.9
77.3
80.6
84.6
2.7
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.8
51.5
67.5
73.6
77.0
82.0
5.9
3.9
2.2
1.9
1.8
41.3
64.2
79.7
83.0
86.1
3.4
1.8
1.9
2
2.0
63.9
73.9
81.6
84.2
87.4
3.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
62.9
71.4
70.7
71.3
73.4
5.6
6.6
5.1
3.7
3.0
10.3
31.4
46.2
51.7
59.7
6.9
7.0
5.1
3.6
3.0
7.7
15.4
27.6
35.4
46.1
6.8
5.7
3.1
2.5
2.2
25.7
41.1
51.7
56.0
63.5
6.5
5.8
4.0
3.3
2.9
20.8
31.2
44.3
48.9
56.3
6.4
6.9
5.6
4.5
3.6
8.5
23.6
44.9
53.9
62.6
5.9
6.7
5.7
4.0
3.2
13.9
26.8
41.4
48.0
57.0
7.1
7.0
4.8
3.5
2.9
5.6
14.1
25.7
33.3
44.2
6.9
5.6
2.8
2.2
2.0
28.6
45.1
54.7
59.0
66.5
6.6
5.9
4.0
3.3
2.9
20.7
31.0
44.4
48.9
56.3
6.4
6.9
5.6
4.5
3.6
8.5
23.6
44.9
53.9
62.6
5.0
3.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
29.5
39.2
53.9
59.9
66.3
Continents or areas
Africa
Asia
Rest of the world
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
UNECA* regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
North Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
African Union regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
World
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, United Nations, New York, 2014.
61
© UNICEF/RWAA2011-00183/Noorani
UNICEF
Division of Data, Research, and Policy
3 United Nations Plaza
New York, NY 10017, USA
www.unicef.org
AFRICA
Generation 2030
UNICEF
Division of Data, Research, and Policy
August 2014
ISBN: 978-92-806-4764-8
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