Poster PDF
ATM – Weather and Data
Integration 101
Concept Overview and Examples
Claudia McKnight, Matt Fronzak, Mark Huberdeau
January 2012
Approved for Public Release: 12-0173.
Distribution Unlimited.
1
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Outline
 Terms and Concept Explained
– Weather Integration
– Levels of Integration
– Weather Translation (getting beyond “weather”)
• NAS Constraint:
– Weather Avoidance Field (WAF)
• Threshold Event
– Impact Conversion (integrating air traffic)
– Decision Support (optimizing solutions)
 Examples
– Threshold Event
– NAS Constraint
2
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What Is Weather Integration?
 Weather information, combined with other data elements,
used in the logic of ATM decisions.
3
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Why Do We Need It?
 Weather disruptions are not off-nominal events, but rather
cause the majority of NAS delays (estimated at 70%)
 The main goal of integrating weather into future decision
support systems is to increase overall NAS efficiency by:
— Standardizing the decision process and outcome (predictability)
— Allowing full and continuous use of enhanced/automated tools
during weather events
— Lessening the burden on traffic management personnel who must
manually process multiple information sources
— Facilitating a more proactive approach to traffic management
4
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What’s the Big Deal?
Why haven’t we had Weather Integration in the past?
 Weather is everywhere: en route, terminal, the airport
environment, and in space – no single domain “owns” it
 Weather will always have an element of uncertainty – although
advancements in technology have vastly improved the accuracy
of weather forecasting, it is still far from being an exact science
 Solutions to traffic management problems can be
fundamentally complex in and of themselves – when system
developers try to add probabilistic weather constraints to the
mix while staying within budgetary and time limits, it is not
uncommon for that work to be pushed off to the “next” phase.
 Bottom line - it’s not simple to integrate weather, but it can and
must be done!
5
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Who’s Responsible for Weather Integration?
 The National Weather Service (NWS) and FAA
Meteorology (FAA Met) are responsible for delivering
weather “products”
 FAA Met owns “translating” that information into NAS
Constraints and Threshold Events (must work with ATM
community to incorporate additional data elements)
 FAA ATM is responsible for determining impact and
developing optimized solutions (must provide operational
requirements to FAA Met/NWS)
 These are not stand-alone processes –
they must be developed
through partnerships and
work seamlessly together
6
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Questions About Weather Integration
 Don’t we just need better forecasts? Isn’t that the main
requirement for the NWS?
— We will always need better forecasts and fidelity of weather data;
however, simply having better information does not address the
issues associated with needing weather integration (i.e., increased
use of automation, allowing the continued use of NextGen
automation systems, standardized decision making, and a reduced
workload)
 Is having weather on the display weather integration? Do we
need more than that?
— Adding weather to the display increases situational awareness and is
considered the first, preliminary stage of integration; however, all
decision-making remains completely manual and at the discretion of
the Traffic Manager (and this stops well short of weather integration
goals)
 What is the first step in integrating weather?
— There are different levels of integration….. (see next slide)
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Levels of ATM-Weather Integration
• Level Zero – No integration
• Level One – “On-the-Glass”
• Level Two – Translation
• Level Three – Impact
• Level Four – Decision Support
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ATM-Weather Integration Level 0
Stand Alone Displays – Manually Intensive
TMU
TMI
TMA
PGUI
CIWS
TMC
CIWS
TMA
PGUI
Mental
Integration
TMC
9
TMC
PGUI graphic NASA Ames, 2008
CIWS graphic NWS
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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© 2011 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ATM-Weather Integration Level 1
”On-the-Glass” or Consolidated Weather Products - Provides Increased Situational Awareness
Weather and traffic displayed
on the same screen; provides
better situational awareness but
remains a manual, subjective,
and labor intensive process.
ETMS Graphic: Volpe
10
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© 2011 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ATM-Weather Integration Level 2a
“NAS Constraints”
“Translation of weather
data and other
components into NAS
Constraints.”
(Capacity Estimation)
Example:
A WAF is used by RAPT,
which identifies routes that
are blocked but does not
calculate actual impact
14 22
-22 -14 -6 -2 2 6
Flight Altitude – Echo Tops
(16 km)
Precipitation & Echo Tops Forecast
Constrained areas with
associated probabilities
0
20 40
60
80 100
% VIL Coverage ≥ Level 3 (60 km)
Deviation probability
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Forecasted Pilot Avoidance
Regions
No actual
traffic has
been applied
to determine
impact
Weather Avoidance Field (WAF)
WAF Graphics MIT-LL
11
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ATM-Weather Integration Level 2b
“Threshold Events”
Notification that a
threshold is likely
to be crossed and
a change may be
required
12
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© 2011 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ATM-Weather Integration Level 3a
“NAS Impacts”
“Conversion of NAS
constraints into NAS
impacts.”
Capacity, Demand, and
Impact Calculation
Example:
IDRP applies known
traffic to routes
monitored by RAPT
Impact is represented as available capacity
vs. demand. TMCs must still develop a plan
Fix Demand
Fix
IDRP applies actual traffic
projected through the constrained
area to provide impact
RAPT applies constraint
information to departure routes
Route
Demand Trend PIG
1810
—
—
35 N90
1
—
34 N90
6
▲
25
5
▼
40
5
—
—
4
—
 Dynam ic
8
—
DEP▲
ARR
ETD30 ENR
QUEUE
16
—
IND A 1819
N90 BIGGY J75COA2076
8EWR
—
42 ENR
PHX Q 1821
EWR_22R
N90 WHITE J79 COA1635
7EWR
—
45 ENR
N90 WAVEY J174
5EWR
—
101823 EWR_22R
COA65
LAX Q
N90 HAPIE
N90 MERIT
N90 GREKI CAM
N90 GAYEL J95
N90 COATE J36
N90 ELIOT J60
N90 ELIOT J64
N90 ELIOT J80
Configure
N90 PARKE J6
N90 LANNA J48 ACID
1815
34 N90
34 N90
1815
HAPIE
BETTE
BEADS
BDR
BAYYS
MERIT
SOARS
GREKI
CMK
GAYEL
BREZY
HAAYS
NEION
COATE
ELIOT
PARKE
LANNA
BIGGY
RBV
DIXIE
34
WHITE
35
WAVEY
SHIPP
Other
1830
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
3
0
0
5
0
0
7
2
8
5
1820
0
0
N90
0
N90
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
8
0
0
2
5
1
0
0
3
5
4
4
3
3
0
35
3
35
0
2
2
1845
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
0
0
2
4
4
8
2
0
1825
2
3
N90
7
N90
0
3
3
1900
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
4
2
3
0
4
0
0
38
6
37
3
0
0
Hourly
3
0
1
0
0
14
1
0
6
12
1
5
2
11
18
17
14
12
1830
5
3
N90
16
N90
5
5
5
1835
40 N90
39 N90
1840
45 N90
42 N90
×
ELIOT, 1815-1914Z
Current: 1821Z
Last updated: 1821Z
ORDER
DEMAND 36
WX
28 ENR TYPE36ALT
ENR FIX 36 ENR
ENR ROUTE36 ENR
36 ENR▲
7/18
Q42 HIDON
ROD CLANG5 IND
42 ENR ERJ 32220
ENR ELIOT34 ENR
42 ENR EWR ELIOT
41 ENR
31 ENR
7/18
J80 AIR J110
STL
45 1ENR 739 45360
ENR ELIOT45 ENR
45 ENR EWR ELIOT
45 ENR
45 ENR
≡ J19 ZUN EAGUL3
2
E135
380
ELIOT
7/18
EWR ELIOT J80 MCI J24 SLN J102 ALS J44 RSK
AAL5313
EWR
STL
Q 1824 EWR_22R
3
DN8C
380
ELIOT
7/18
EWR ELIOT J80 AIR J110 VHP VLA6 STL
COA2669
EWR
MCI
T 1830 EWR_22R
6
CRJ9 320
ELIOT
7/18
EWR ELIOT J80 SPI BQS4 MCI
UAL763
DEN
T 1831
EWR_22R
B752
380 ELIOT
5/18
Configure EWR
AAL5313,
EWR-STL,
P1823 -7ELIOT,
1815-1914Z
×EWR ELIOT J60 IOW J10 LBF SAYGE6 DEN
N7094B
HPN
MDW P 1830
F900 180 Departure
ELIOT
5/18e
HPN ELIOT J60 GSH GSH4 MDW
Tim
OPTION
Coord
Fix
Extra Fly
UAL409
DEN AReq'd
1817 Dem and Tim e▲E135
ELIOT1825 7/18
NAME LGA ROUTE
1810 380
1815 1820
1830 1835 1840LGA ELIOT J60 IOW J10 LBF SAYGE6 DEN
SWA333
LGAELIOT
MDW
10:00 73G 360 ELIOT
7/18
LGA ELIOT J60 GSH GSH4 MDW
As filed
J80 Q 1821 LGA_31
7/18
EWRSTLJ6MMUPARKE
J6 T 1836 LGA_31
2/17
0:01 E135 260 ELIOT
BTA6097
YIP
10
5/18
MMU ELIOT J80 LEJOY J518 DJB LLEEO2 YIP
EWTSTL64MMUELIOTTEX
J64 P 1835
Y
7/18
0:02 LJ35 280 ELIOT
N1007C
5/18
MMU ELIOT ETX RAV J64 PWE HLC PUB TEX
EWRSTL60 TEB ELIOT
J60 P 1833
Y
7/18
0:04 GLF4 300 ELIOT
EJA413
MDW
5/18
TEB ELIOT J60 GSH GSH4 MDW
EWRSTLFN
COATE J36
Y
0/11
0:06
◄
► ▼
≡
EWRSTLCA
GREKI CAM
Y
0/0
0:15
IDRP Graphics MITRE/ MIT LL
13
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© 2011 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
ATM-Weather Integration Level 3b
“State Changes”
“Conversion of
Threshold Events into
State Changes”
INPUT
OUTPUT
Addition of specific traffic
and other data elements
(aircraft type, limitations,
user preferences) provides a
measure of impact and
optimized input for DSTs and
human decision makers
ALERT
FSM Demand Graph FAA
14
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ATM-Weather Integration Level 4
Machine-to-Machine Integration with Full “What-If” Decision Support
Human in-the/
over-the-loop
“Strategic and
Tactical TFM
Solutions”
Example: GPSM
The GDP Parameter Selection Model (GPSM)
provides alternatives for decision-makers that
include: Start and End times, Scope, AARs,
Risk of Exceeding Max Queue, and Benefit as a
Percent of Delay Reduction
GPSM Graphic: Mosaic ATM
15
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Weather Translation

(“Yellow Box”) The process of taking weather data and combining it with
other data elements such as pilot behavior models, safety regulations,
operating thresholds, and historical demand information to arrive at a
graphic depiction of where capacity will be reduced, or a threshold crossed.
There are two outputs:
Is currently
— NAS Constraint: (applies to airborne traffic and depicted as a WAF)
The degree to which the weather hazard would constrain the affected
Primary
Responsibility:
FAA MET
NAS element in the presence of air traffic – permeability.
— Threshold Event: (applies to the airport environment)
When a non-hazardous atmospheric parameter such as ceiling,
visibility, or wind speed crosses an operating threshold and may result
in an associated change to configuration or arrival rate.
16
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Weather Avoidance Field (WAF)

There are a growing number of WAF products, each with a slightly
different name (think Kleenex). What is generally being depicted is the
probable reduction to capacity, or Capacity Reduction Area (think tissue).

The WAF should be considered an indication of airspace permeability as
opposed to a “no fly” area. The WAF (or Capacity Reduction Area)
associated with convective activity is the current output of Translation.
WAF
CWAM
Weather, CWAM, and WAF Graphic MIT-LL
17
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Anatomy of a Threshold Event
Predicted time and
associated probability
Ceiling
1815Z: 35%
1830Z: 50%
1845Z: 90%
Current C&V conditions
at ATL Airport
Threshold
Alert
1645Z: 55%
1700Z: 80%
1715Z: 100%
VAPS
3600 ft
VFR
3000 ft
Ceiling and Visibility (C&V) predicted to worsen
causing a change from Visual Approach Criteria
(VAPS) to Marginal VFR (MVFR)
MVFR
1000 ft
IFR
Further lowering of visibility will cross another
Threshold - Instrument Flight Rules (IFR)
3 mi
5 mi
Visibility
7 mi
Airport specific data
is applied, i.e., visual
approach criteria
(VAPS), or local
CSPO ceiling and
visibility limits
Diagram credit: Metron Aviation
18
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ATM Impact Conversion

(“Red box”) This capability takes information from the weather
Translation function, adds actual and projected demand, and other
specific aircraft and ATM data elements, and converts it into potential
NAS impacts (in the case of NAS constraints) or state changes (in the
case of threshold events).
— NAS Impact: (En route) The effect of the forecast weather constraint
Primary
Responsibility:
FAA ATM
(capacity) on the individual aircraft (demand) projected to be in the
affected NAS element at the same time.
— State Change: (Airport) Examples include: runway configuration
change, de-icing operations, longer runway occupancy times, etc.
A state change may result in an increase or decrease in capacity.
19
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Decision Support

(“Brown Box”) The fundamental goal of Decision Support is to provide
overall NAS optimization.
Impact data and state change information can be further enhanced by
applying various “filters” such as sector loading figures, desired risk
level, current priorities (AAR vs. DEP), current/updated constraint
information, impact probabilities, local area information, and SOPs, etc.
Primary
Responsibility:
FAA ATM
to derive mitigation options and provide “what-if” capability for traffic
managers – both in the strategic and tactical time frames.
20
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Weather Integration Example 1:
Airport Threshold Event

Solution Set – High Density

Operational Improvement – Initial Surface Traffic
Management (2010-2017)

NSIP-B Increment (104209-22) – Airport Configuration
Management

Capability: Provide continual impact assessment and
recommendations for changes to airport configuration;
including times that best serve the predicted demand
and conditions.
21
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2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Weather Impacting Surface Operations
•
•
•
•
Departure
• Decreased visibility
• De-icing operations
• Blocked DEP Route/Fix
Low-level wind shears
Decreased ceiling
Icing
Blocked ARR Route/Fix
• Thunderstorms
(hail, lightning,
wind shear, icing)
• Turbulence
• Winds aloft
• Changing surface winds
• Decreased visibility
• Decreased braking action
Preflight
Preflight
TFM Strategic
Terminal
Functions
• Daily Flow Planning
• Pre-flight Planning
Arrival
Post Flight
En Route
TFM Tactical Functions
Tactical
Functions
• TFM
Tactical
Flow Planning
• Tactical Weather Avoidance
22
Terminal
TFM Post
Analysis
Functions
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2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Example of Runway Configuration Change
without Weather Integration (Complex Manual Process)
TMC
Decisions
23
FSM Graphic FAA
Einstein by Andrew Zimmerman Jones
Igor photo 20th Century Fox
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Example of Runway Configuration with Full
Weather Integration
Amplifying Information
•Sector loading
•Risk level
•Priorities (AAR vs. DEP)
•Updated constraint info
•Local area SOPs
Weather
Translation
ATM Impact
Conversion
ATM Decision
Support
(Level 2)
(Level 3)
(Level 4)
Translation of
weather data &
other
components into:
Conversion of
NAS Constraints
and Threshold
Events into:
• NAS Constraints
• Threshold Events
• NAS Impacts
• State Changes
DSTs use specific
NAS impact to
develop
strategic/ tactical
TFM solutions
TMC
Notification that a
threshold will be
crossed and a
change may be
required.
24
Addition of specific
traffic provides
impact alert and
optimized input for
Decision Support
Multiple
recommendations
with degrees of
confidence and
probability
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Runway Configuration Change (Level 1)
 Monitor weather (manually):
— Winds (speed, gust, direction)
— Ceiling & Visibility
 Open Runway Configuration Dialog Box
and manually input changes
“SDSS predictions depend on knowledge of current or future airport runway
configurations. SDSS does not receive this information electronically, thus users must
manually enter the current runway configuration and planned future changes as soon
as they are known.” SDSS User’s Manual
Graphics: SDSS User’s Guide, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), MIT Lincoln Labs.
25
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Runway Configuration Change (Level 2)
 Forecast winds, ceiling, and visibility
are automatically monitored along
with other basic data elements (e.g.,
FAA regulations, local rules, runway
headings and approach corridors)
❶
Change
Runway
Configuration
 Threshold is triggered ❶ allowing:
— Drill down of forecast ❷
— Depiction of forecasted threshold
❷
change vs. projected runway traffic ❸
 Runway Configuration Dialog Box is
manually configured ❹
Graphics: SDSS User’s Guide and NWS GFS-LAMP station forecast,.
26
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Runway Configuration Change (Level 3)
TMA: TGUI
18R
Weather Conditions As
depicted on the TMA
TGUI (l) and the SDSS
rwy timeline (r)
Traffic Conditions
IMPACT
Manual judgment on
if/when to change
configuration
Graphics: SDSS User’s Guide
27
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Runway Configuration Change (Level 4)
 Decision support provides
optimized solutions and
alternatives
 Additional data is considered
by automation logic (e.g.,
Time: 1632Z
Flt Conds: LOW IFR
Current Config:
DEP- 36L, 36R, 27
ARR- 36L, 36C, 27
ADR: 34 AAR: 40
Options
A
B
time of impact vs. ARR/DEP
demand)
 Human-in-the-loop options
C
DEP: 18R, 18C, 09
ARR: 18L, 18C
ADR: 60
AAR: 45
Start at: 1700Z AvgDly
16
DEP: 18R, 09
ARR: 18L, 18C, 18R
DEP: 18C, 09
ARR: 18L, 18R
ADR: 30
AAR: 60
ADR: 42
AAR: 60
Start at: 1715Z AvgDly
7
Start at: 1730Z AvgDly
13
Comments:
Option B notes- ARR push. No A380 DEP from 1720Z to 1732Z. TWR-rec new config
w/DAL362. TRACON- rec JBU240 last acft to HARDY for N config.
and “what-if” capability still
available to traffic managers
SDSS Graphic Mosaic ATM (modified)
28
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Weather Integration Example 2:
En Route NAS Constraint

Solution Set – Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Operational Improvement 102114 – Initial Conflict
Resolution Advisories (2013-2017)

NSIP-B Increment 102114-29 – Aircraft-to-Weather Area
Problem Resolution

Capability – Predict intersecting aircraft-to-weather area
trajectories; provide rank ordered resolutions which can
be offered by the controller to the affected flight if
requested
29
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2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Weather Impacting Airborne Traffic
•
•
•
•
• Decreased visibility
• De-icing operations
• Blocked DEP Route/Fix
Low-level wind shears
Decreased ceiling
Icing
Blocked ARR Route/Fix
• Thunderstorms
(hail, lightning,
wind shear, icing)
• Turbulence
• Winds aloft
• Changing surface winds
• Decreased visibility
• Decreased braking action
Preflight
Preflight
TFM Strategic
Terminal
Functions
• Daily Flow Planning
• Pre-flight Planning
Post Flight
En Route
TFM Tactical Functions
Tactical
Functions
• TFM
Tactical
Flow Planning
• Tactical Weather Avoidance
30
Terminal
TFM Post
Analysis
Functions
© 2011
2012 The MITRE Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
TBFM and Hazardous Weather Today
 TBFM cannot
anticipate the
impact of hazardous
weather on the
trajectories of
individual flights
 ETAs of flights
diverting around
hazardous weather
fluctuate and STAs
become
unachievable
 Consequently, TBFM
is discontinued in
the presence of hazardous weather
FREEZE HORIZON
31
OUTER OUTER ARC
OUTER ARC
TRACON
STA = ETA
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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Example of TBFM Use During Severe
Weather with Full Weather Integration
Amplifying Information
•Sector loading
•Risk level
•STA/ETA deltas
•Updated constraint info
•Local area SOPs
CWAM Graphic MIT LL
Weather
Translation
ATM Impact
Conversion
ATM Decision
Support
(Level 2)
(Level 3)
(Level 4)
Translation of
weather data &
other
components into:
Conversion of
NAS Constraints
and Threshold
Events into:
• NAS Constraints
• Threshold Events
• NAS Impacts
A Weather
Avoidance Field
indicates an area
with reduced
capacity
• State Changes
Addition of specific
traffic from the
TGUI provides
individual impact
assessment
32
DSTs use specific
NAS impact to
develop
strategic/ tactical
TFM solutions
TMC
Aircraft are
considered for
reordering based on
weather impact and
ETA/STA timing
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TBFM Weather Integration Level 1:
“weather on the glass”
 CIWS imagery overlay
on TMA PGUI
 Schedule: Spring 2013
 Benefits
– Increased situation awareness
– Better understanding of
relationship between traffic
and weather
 Shortfalls
– Manual impact calculation
– Manual solution development
Notional illustration of TBFM PGUI with CIWS imagery overlay
TBFM Graphic FAA
33
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TBFM Weather Integration Level 2:
Constraint Indicators
 Weather Constraint
Information: Predicted
route blockage information
(from weather translation)
is calculated for time and
probability of occurrence
 That information is then
displayed on the TMA TGUI
via “stoplight” indicators
 Benefits: increased
awareness of potential
constraints
 Shortfalls: manual impact
calculation and solution
development
WAF
Notional illustration of TBFM TGUI
with “stoplight” constraint indicators
34
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TBFM Weather Integration Level 3:
Impact Indicators
 Impact Conversion: Route
blockage information is
applied to individual flights
and flows (converted from
constraints to impact)
 That information is then
displayed on the TBFM
TGUI via individual aircraft
“stoplight” indicators
 Benefits: automatic impact
calculation
 Shortfalls: manual solution
development
Notional illustration of TMA TGUI
with “stoplight” impact indicators
35
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TBFM Weather Integration Level 4: Full DST
Functionality (Convection)
 Full Decision Support System
 Benefits: automated optimized
solution recommendations (including
reordering of flights)
Notional illustration of TMA TGUI with flight list swap recommendations
36
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
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TBFM Weather Notional
Operations – Level 4
 A mouse click on any of the
special impact symbols causes
the DST recommendations to be
graphically displayed
 A look at the TBFM PGUI with
CIWS overlays suggests that both
of the recommendations appear
to be good solutions
 One more click on one of the
special impact symbols executes
the flight list changes
--<JBU486
-- NWA784
06
--<CHQ6412 -2
-- FDX3701
--<LOF3611 02
-- NWA1226 02
--<MEP207
--<CHQ3162
--<AAL1230
--<EGF551
-2
--<AMT4152 03
-- PDT4296 01
--<FIV304
--<EJA633
Notional illustration of TMA TGUI – times and positions are not to scale
37
© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
Overall Benefits of Weather Integration
 Improved efficiency and standardization due to objective
vs. subjective decision making; more consistent and
predictable
— Computers can monitor a complex set of business rules (e.g., if
the wind is from X direction, at Y speed, and the field is VFR…)
— Allows decision makers to take advantage of automation
 Proactive decision making (even a short lead time can
yield great benefits)
 Full use of automation tools during weather events
 Cost savings!
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© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
Coming Soon…
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© 2012 The MITRE Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
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