Solar Photovoltaics

Solar Photovoltaics
IRENA woRkINg
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IRENA
International Renewable Energy Agency
RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES: COST ANALYSIS SERIES
Volume 1: Power Sector
Issue 4/5
Solar Photovoltaics
June 2012
Copyright (c) IRENA 2012
Unless otherwise indicated, material in this publication may be used freely, shared or reprinted,
but acknowledgement is requested.
About IRENA
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation dedicated
to renewable energy.
In accordance with its Statute, IRENA's objective is to "promote the widespread and increased
adoption and the sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy". This concerns all forms of
energy produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner and includes bioenergy,
geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy.
As of May 2012, the membership of IRENA comprised 158 States and the European Union (EU), out
of which 94 States and the EU have ratified the Statute.
Acknowledgement
This paper was prepared by the IRENA Secretariat. The paper benefitted from an internal IRENA
review, as well as valuable comments and guidance from Zuzana Dobrotkova (IEA), Al Goodrich
(NREL), Miller Mackay (NREL), Cedric Philibert (IEA), Giorgio Simbolotti (ENEA) and Professor XI
Wenhua (UNIDO-ISEC).
For further information or to provide feedback, please contact Michael Taylor, IRENA Innovation
and Technology Centre, Robert-Schuman-Platz 3, 53175 Bonn, Germany; [email protected]
This working paper is available for download from www.irena.org/Publications
Disclaimer
The designations employed and the presentation of materials herein do not imply the expression
of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the International Renewable Energy
Agency concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The term “country” as used in this material
also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.
Preface
Renewable power generation can help countries meet their sustainable development
goals through provision of access to clean, secure, reliable and affordable energy.
Renewable energy has gone mainstream, accounting for the majority of capacity
additions in power generation today. Tens of gigawatts of wind, hydropower and
solar photovoltaic capacity are installed worldwide every year in a renewable energy
market that is worth more than a hundred billion USD annually. Other renewable power
technology markets are also emerging. Recent years have seen dramatic reductions in
renewable energy technologies’ costs as a result of R&D and accelerated deployment.
Yet policy-makers are often not aware of the latest cost data.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Member Countries have asked for
better, objective cost data for renewable energy technologies. This working paper
aims to serve that need and is part of a set of five reports on solar pholtovoltaics, wind,
biomass, hydropower and concentrating solar power that address the current costs of
these key renewable power technology options. The reports provide valuable insights
into the current state of deployment, types of technologies available and their costs and
performance. The analysis is based on a range of data sources with the objective of
developing a uniform dataset that supports comparison across technologies of different
cost indicators - equipment, project and levelised cost of electricity – and allows for
technology and cost trends, as well as their variability to be assessed.
The papers are not a detailed financial analysis of project economics. However, they do
provide simple, clear metrics based on up-to-date and reliable information which can be
used to evaluate the costs and performance of different renewable power generation
technologies. These reports help to inform the current debate about renewable power
generation and assist governments and key decision makers to make informed
decisions on policy and investment.
The dataset used in these papers will be augmented over time with new project cost
data collected from IRENA Member Countries. The combined data will be the basis for
forthcoming IRENA publications and toolkits to assist countries with renewable energy
policy development and planning. Therefore, we welcome your feedback on the data
and analysis presented in these papers, and we hope that they help you in your policy,
planning and investment decisions.
Dolf Gielen
Director, Innovation and Technology
Contents
KEY FINDINGS
i
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
ii
1. INTRODUCTION
1
1.1 Different measures of cost
1.2 Levelised cost of electricity generation
2. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGIES
4
2.1 First-generation PV technologies: Crystalline silicon cells
2.2 Second-generation PV technologies: Thin-film solar cells
2.3 Third-generation PV technologies
2.4 The Solar PV Resource
2.5 Summary of PV technologies
3. CURRENT GLOBAL PV MARKET TRENDS
12
3.1 Total installed PV capacity
3.2 Annual PV capacity additions
3.3 Future projections of PV capacity growth
4. COST AND PERFORMANCE
15
4.1 Solar PV module price/cost
4.2 Balance of system cost
4.3 Total PV system costs
5. PV SYSTEM COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL
28
5.1 Cost reduction potential for c-Si PV modules
5.2 Cost reduction potential for thin-film PV modules
5.3 BOS cost reduction potentials
5.4 Overall cost reduction potentials for PV systems
5.5 PV module efficiency improvements
6. LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR PV
38
6.1 LCOE ESTIMATES FOR 2011 TO 2015
ii
REFERENCES
42
ACRONYMS
45
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Key findings
1. At the beginning of 2012, thin-film module prices (factory gate or spot) had fallen below USD 1/watt (W), with prices
between USD 0.84 and USD 0.93/W available. The prices of crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules are more varied, but were
typically in the range USD 1.02 to USD 1.24/W for the most competitive markets. PV module costs have a learning
rate of 22%, implying that costs will decline by just over a fifth with every doubling of capacity. Continued rapid cost
reductions are likely due to the rapid growth in deployment, given that cumulative installed capacity grew by 71% in
2011 alone.
2. The total installed cost of PV systems can vary widely within individual countries, and between countries and regions.
These variations reflect the maturity of domestic markets, local labour and manufacturing costs, incentive levels and
structures, and a range of other factors. At an average of USD 3.8/W for c-Si systems, Germany has the lowest PV system
costs in the small-scale residential market (<5 kW). In comparison, the average installed cost in 2011 in Italy, Spain, Portugal
and the United States was between USD 5.7 to USD 5.8/W.
3. Utility-scale
systems using thin-film amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) and Copper-Indium-GalliumDiselenide (CIGS) PV modules tend to have lower capital costs than residential systems in a given market, but
this is not always the case if tracking is included. Thin-film utility-scale systems had an average cost of around
USD 3.9/W in 2010, not substantially cheaper than the average cost of a residential c-Si system in Germany
in 2011.
TABLE 1: TYPICAL COST AND PERFORMANCE VALUES FOR SOLAR PV SYSTEMS
Module cost,
factory gate or spot
(2010 USD/W)
Installed cost
(2010 USD/W)
Efficiency
(%)
Levelised cost of
electricity
(2010 USD/kWh)
Residential
c-Si PV system
1.02 – 1.24
3.8 – 5.8
14
0.25 – 0.65
c-Si PV system with battery storage
1.02 – 1.24
5–6
14
0.36 – 0.71
0.84 – 0.93
3.6 – 5.0
8–9
0.26 – 0.59
Utility-scale
Amorphous Si thin film
Note: Assumes a 10% cost of capital.
4. Despite the impressive declines in PV system costs, the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV remains high.
The LCOE of residential systems without storage assuming a 10% cost of capital was in the range USD 0.25 and
USD 0.65/kWh in 2011. When electricity storage is added, the cost range increases to USD 0.36 and USD 0.71/kWh.
The LCOE of current utility-scale thin-film PV systems was estimated to be between USD 0.26 and USD 0.59/kWh
in 2011 for thin-film systems.
5. Despite the large LCOE range, PV is often already competitive with residential tariffs in regions with good solar
resources, low PV system costs and high electricity tariffs for residential consumers. In addition, PV with storage is now
virtually always cheaper than diesel generators for the provision of off-grid electricity.
6. The prospects for continued cost reductions are very good. However, the rate at which PV costs will decline is highly
uncertain due to the very rapid growth in the PV market compared to the installed base and the high learning rate for
PV. As a result, even small differences in scenarios for PV growth can have a big impact on the projected decline in
module prices. Leaving aside this uncertainty, the installed costs of a c-Si residential system may decline from between
USD 3.8 to USD 5.8/W in 2011 to between USD 2.9 to USD 4.1/W in 2015 if current trends continue.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
i
List of tables
Table 2.1: an overview and comparison of major PV technologies
10
Table 4.1: Summary of the worldwide market price of PV modules , Q4 2009 to Q1 2012
17
Table 5.1: Crystalline Silicon PV module prices projections for European, North american and Japanese manufacturers, 2010 to 2015
28
Table 5.2: Crystalline Silicon PV module prices projections for low-cost manufacturers; 2010 to 2015
29
Table 5.3: Installed PV system cost projections for residential and utility-scale systems, 2010 to 2030
34
Table 6.1: C-Si and thin-film PV system costs and LCoE, 2010 to 2020
39
Table 6.2: Installed cost and efficiency assumptions for residential PV systems, 2010 to 2015
40
Table 6.3: Installed cost and efficiency assumptions for utility-scale PV systems, 2011 to 2015
41
List of figures
Figure 1.1: renewable power generation cost indicators and boundaries
2
Figure 2.1: Global mean horizontal irradiance
8
Figure 2.2: the solar PV resource in the united States
ii
9
Figure 3.1: Evolution of global cumulative installed capacity, 2000-2011
12
Figure 3.2: EPIa scenarios for global annual new installed PV capacity, 2000 to 2015
14
Figure 4.1: the global PV module price learning curve for c-Si wafer-based and Cdte modules, 1979 to 2015
16
Figure 4.2: average worldwide PV module price level and their cost structure by technology (2010)
16
Figure 4.3: European and united States PV module factory-gate prices, Q1 2010 to Q1 2012
18
Figure 4.4: Weighted average retail c-Si PV module price levels and structure in 2010
19
Figure 4.5: Cost breakdown of current conventional PV systems in the united States , 2010
20
Figure 4.6: Installed PV system prices for residential applications in different countries, 2011
23
Figure 4.7: Cost breakdowns of typical utility-scale c-Si PV systems installed in Europe and the united States, Q1 2009 to Q4 2010
24
Figure 4.8: System cost breakdown for residential, commercial and utility-scale c-Si PV systems in the united States, 2010
25
Figure 4.9: Installed costs of utility-scale PV plants in 2010 (<10 MW and >10 MW)
26
Figure 4.10: average prices and sizes of large utility-scale PV plants by country, 2010
27
Figure 5.1: Crystalline silicon PV module cost projections, 2010 to 2015
29
Figure 5.2: Single junction and tandem structures of amorphous silicon thin-film PV module cost breakdown and projections, 2010 to 2015
30
Figure 5.3: CIGS thin film PV module cost breakdown and projections, 2010 to 2015
32
Figure 5.4: Cdte thin film PV module cost breakdown and projections, 2010 to 2015
33
Figure 5.5: average crystalline silicon and thin film PV system price forecasts for 2010 to 2015
35
Figure 5.6: uS DoE Cost reduction goals to achieve uSD 1/W
36
Figure 5.7: theoretical solar cell maximum efficiency by PV technology
36
Figure 5.8: Current and projected PV module efficiency improvements to 2015
37
Figure 6.1: LCoE scenarios for PV systems, 2010 to 2030
39
Figure 6.2: retail electricity prices (2007) and the projected LCoE of PV systems (2020)
40
Figure 6.3: Illustrative LCoE of residential and utility-scale PV systems, 2010 and 2015
41
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
1. Introduction
R
enewable energy technologies can help countries meet their policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable
energy to expand electricity access and promote development. This paper is part of a series on the costs
and performance of renewable energy technologies produced by IRENA. The goal of these papers is to assist
government decision-making and ensure that governments have access to up-to-date and reliable information on
the costs and performance of renewable energy technologies.
Without access to reliable information on the relative
costs and benefits of renewable energy technologies
it is difficult, if not impossible, for governments to
arrive at an accurate assessment of which renewable
energy technologies are the most appropriate for their
particular circumstances. These papers fill a significant
gap in information availability because there is a lack
of accurate, comparable, reliable and up-to-date data
on the costs and performance of renewable energy
technologies. The rapid growth in installed capacity of
renewable energy technologies and the associated cost
reductions mean that even data one or two years old
can significantly overestimate the cost of electricity from
renewable energy technologies. There is also a significant
amount of perceived knowledge about the cost and
performance of renewable power generation that is not
accurate or even misleading. Conventions on how to
calculate costs can influence the outcome significantly
and it is imperative that these are well-documented.
1.1 DIFFErENt MEaSurES oF CoSt
Cost can be measured in a number of different ways,
and each way of accounting for the cost of power
generation brings its own insights. The costs that can be
examined include equipment costs (e.g. PV modules),
financing costs, total installed cost, fixed and variable
operating and maintenance costs (O&M), fuel costs and
the levelised cost of energy (LCOE).
The analysis of costs can be very detailed, but for
comparison purposes and transparency, the approach
used here is a simplified one. This allows greater scrutiny
of the underlying data and assumptions, improving
transparency and confidence in the analysis, as well as
facilitating the comparison of costs by country or region
for the same technologies in order to identify what are
the key drivers in any differences.
The three indicators that have been selected are:
The absence of accurate and reliable data on the cost
and performance of renewable power generation
technologies is therefore a significant barrier to the
uptake of these technologies. Providing this information
will help governments, policy-makers, investors and
utilities make informed decisions about the role
renewable energy can play in their power generation
mix. This paper examines the fixed and variable cost
components of solar photovoltaics (PV), by country and
region and provides the levelised cost of electricity from
solar PV, given a number of key assumptions. This up-todate analysis of the costs of generating electricity from
solar PV will allow a fair comparison of solar PV with
other generating technologies.1
»»Equipment cost (factory gate FOB and
delivered at site CIF);
»»Total installed project cost, including fixed
financing costs2; and
»»The levelised cost of electricity.
The analysis in this paper focuses on estimating the cost
of solar PV energy from the perspective of a private
investor, whether they are a state-owned electricity
generation utility, an independent power producer or
an individual or community looking to invest in small-
IRENA, through its other work programmes, is also looking at the costs and benefits, as well as the macroeconmic impacts, of renewable power
generation technologies. See WWW.IRENA.ORG for further details.
2
Banks or other financial institutions will often charge a fee, such as a percentage of the total funds sought, to arrange the debt financing of a project.
These costs are often reported separately under project development costs.
1
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
1
scale renewables (Figure 1.1). The analysis excludes the
impact of government incentives or subsidies, system
balancing costs associated with variable renewables
and any system-wide cost-savings from the merit
order effect3. Further, the analysis does not take into
account any CO2 pricing, nor the benefits of renewables
in reducing other externalities (e.g. reduced local air
pollution, contamination of the environment). Similarly,
the benefits of renewables being insulated from volatile
fossil fuel prices have not been quantified. These issues
are important, but are covered by other programmes of
work at IRENA.
It is important to include clear definitions of the
technology categories, where this is relevant, to ensure
that cost comparisons are robust and provide useful
insights (e.g. off-grid PV vs. utility-scale PV). Similarly,
it is important to differentiate between the functionality
and/or qualities of the renewable power generation
technologies being investigated (e.g. PV with and without
battery storage). It is important to ensure that system
boundaries for costs are clearly set and that the available
data are directly comparable. Other issues can also be
important, such as cost allocation rules for combined heat
and power plants, and grid connection costs.
An important point is that, although this paper tries to
examine costs, strictly speaking, the data available are
actually prices, and not even true market average prices,
but price indicators. The difference between costs and
prices is determined by the amount above, or below,
the normal profit that would be seen in a competitive
market. The rapid growth of renewables markets from a
small base means that the market for renewable power
generation technologies is rarely well-balanced. As a
result, prices can rise significantly above costs in the
short-term if supply is not expanding as fast as demand,
while in times of excess supply, prices may too low to
earn a normal return on capital and losses can occur if
prices are below production costs. This makes analysing
Project development
Site preparation
Grid connection
Working capital
Auxiliary equipment
Non-commercial cost
Transport cost
Import levies
Factory gate
Equipment
The data used for the comparisons in this paper come
from a variety of sources, such as business journals,
industry associations, consultancies, governments,
auctions and tenders. Every effort has been made to
ensure that these data are directly comparable and are for
the same system boundaries. Where this is not the case,
the data have been corrected to a common basis using
the best available data or assumptions. It is planned that
this data will be complemented by detailed surveys of real
world project data in forthcoming work by the agency.
On site
Equipment
Project cost
Operation &
Maintenance
Cost of finance
Resource quality
Capacity factor
Life span
LCOE
Levelized cost of electricity
(Discounted lifetime cost
divided by discounted
lifetime generation)
FIGURE 1.1: RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COST INDICATORS AND BOUNDARIES
3
2
See EWEA, Wind Energy and Electricity Prices, April 2010 for a discussion
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
the cost of renewable power generation technologies
challenging and every effort is made to indicate whether
current equipment costs are above or below their longterm trend.
The cost of equipment at the factory gate is often
available from market surveys or from other sources.
A key difficulty is often reconciling different sources
of data to identify why data for the same period differ.
The balance of capital costs in total project costs
tends to vary even more widely than power generation
equipment costs, as it is often based on significant local
content, which depends on the cost structure of where
the project is being developed. Total installed costs can
therefore vary significantly by project, country and region
depending on a wide range of factors.
required. This often gives the impression of greater
accuracy, but when it is not possible to robustly
populate the model with assumptions, or to differentiate
assumptions based on real world data, then the
“accuracy” of the approach can be misleading.
The formula used for calculating the LCOE of renewable
energy technologies is:
LCOE =
Σ
n
t=1
Σ
It + Mt + Ft
(1+r)t
n
t=1
Et
(1+r)t
Where:
1.2 LEVELISED CoSt oF ELECtrICItY
GENEratIoN
The LCOE of renewable energy technologies varies by
technology, country and project based on the renewable
energy resource, capital and operating costs, and
the efficiency / performance of the technology. The
approach used in the analysis presented here is based on
a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This method of
calculating the cost of renewable energy technologies is
based on discounting financial flows (annual, quarterly
or monthly) to a common basis, taking into consideration
the time value of money. Given the capital intensive
nature of most renewable power generation technologies
and the fact that fuel costs are low, or often zero, the
weighted average cost of capital (WACC), often also
referred to as the discount rate, used to evaluate the
project has a critical impact on the LCOE.
There are many potential trade-offs to be considered
when developing an LCOE modelling approach. The
approach taken here is relatively simplistic, given the fact
that the model needs to be applied to a wide range of
technologies in different countries and regions. However,
this has the additional advantage that the analysis is
transparent and easy to understand. In addition, more
detailed LCOE analyses result in a significantly higher
overhead in terms of the granularity of assumptions
LCOE = the average lifetime levelised cost of electricity
generation;
It = investment expenditures in the year t;
Mt = operations and maintenance expenditures in the
year t;
Ft = fuel expenditures in the year t;
Et = electricity generation in the year t;
r = discount rate; and
n = economic life of the system.
All costs presented in this paper are real 2010 USD; that is
to say, after inflation has been taken into account, unless
otherwise stated.4 The LCOE is the price of electricity
required for a project where revenues would equal costs,
including making a return on the capital invested equal
to the discount rate. An electricity price above this would
yield a greater return on capital, while a price below it
would yielder a lower return on capital, or even a loss.
As already mentioned, although different cost measures
are useful in different situations, the LCOE of renewable
energy technologies is a widely used measure by
which renewable energy technologies can be evaluated
for modelling or policy development. Similarly, more
detailed DCF approaches taking into account taxation,
subsidies and other incentives are used by renewable
energy project developers to assess the profitability of
real world projects.
An analysis based on nominal values with specific inflation assumptions for each of the cost components is beyond the scope of this analysis. Project
developers will develop their own specific cash-flow models to identify the profitability of a project from their perspective.
4
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
3
2. Solar photovoltaic
technologies
P
hotovoltaics, also called solar cells, are electronic
devices that convert sunlight directly into
electricity5. The modern form of the solar cell was
invented in 1954 at Bell Telephone Laboratories. Today,
PV is one of the fastest growing renewable energy
technologies and it is expected that it will play a major
role in the future global electricity generation mix.
Solar PV systems are also one of the most “democratic”
renewable technologies, in that their modular size
means that they are within the reach of individuals,
co-operatives and small-businesses who want to access
their own generation and lock-in electricity prices.
PV technology offers a number of significant benefits,
including:
»»Solar power is a renewable resource that is
available everywhere in the world.
»»Solar PV technologies are small and
highly modular and can be used virtually
anywhere, unlike many other electricity
generation technologies.
»»Unlike conventional power plants using coal,
nuclear, oil and gas; solar PV has no fuel costs
and relatively low operation and maintenance
(O&M) costs. PV can therefore offer a price
hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices.
»»PV, although variable, has a high
coincidence with peak electricity demand
driven by cooling in summer and year round
in hot countries.
A PV system consists of PV cells that are grouped
together to form a PV module, and the auxiliary
components (i.e. balance of system - BOS), including the
inverter, controls, etc. There are a wide range of PV cell
technologies on the market today, using different types
of materials, and an even larger number will be available
in the future. PV cell technologies are usually classified
into three generations, depending on the basic material
used and the level of commercial maturity:
»»First-generation PV systems (fully
commercial) use the wafer-based crystalline
silicon (c-Si) technology, either single
crystalline (sc-Si) or multi-crystalline (mc-Si).
»»Second-generation PV systems (early
market deployment) are based on thin-film
PV technologies and generally include
three main families: 1) amorphous (a-Si)
and micromorph silicon (a-Si/µc-Si); 2)
Cadmium-Telluride (CdTe); and 3) CopperIndium-Selenide (CIS) and Copper-IndiumGallium-Diselenide (CIGS).
»»Third-generation PV systems include
technologies, such as concentrating PV
(CPV) and organic PV cells that are still
under demonstration or have not yet been
widely commercialised, as well as novel
concepts under development.
2.1 FIrSt-GENEratIoN PV tECHNoLoGIES:
CrYStaLLINE SILICoN CELLS
Silicon is one of the most abundant elements in the
earth‘s crust. It is a semiconductor material suitable
for PV applications, with energy band gap6 of 1.1eV.
Crystalline silicon is the material most commonly used
in the PV industry, and wafer-based c-Si PV cells and
modules dominate the current market. This is a mature
5
The Photovoltaic effect is when two different (or differently doped) semiconducting materials (e.g. silicon, germanium), in close contact with each
other generate an electrical current when exposed to sunlight. The sunlight provides the electrons with the energy needed to leave their bounds and
cross the junction between the two materials. This occurs more easily in one direction than in the other and gives one side of the junction a negative
charge with respect to the other side (p-n junction), thus generating a voltage and a direct current (DC). PV cells work with direct and diffused
light and generate electricity even during cloudy days, though with reduced production and conversion efficiency. Electricity production is roughly
proportional to the solar irradiance, while efficiency is reduced only slowly as solar irradiance declines.
6
The energy needed to produce electron excitation and to activate the PV process.
4
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
technology that utilises the accumulated knowledge base
developed within the electronic industry. This type of
solar cell is in mass production and individual companies
will soon be producing it at the rate of several hundred
MW a year and even at the GW-scale. The manufacturing
process of wafer-based silicon PV modules comprises
four steps:
1. Polysilicon production;
2. Ingot/wafer production;
3. Cell production; and
4. Module assembly.
Crystalline silicon cells are classified into three main types
depending on how the Si wafers are made. They are:
»»Monocrystalline (Mono c-Si) sometimes
also called single crystalline (sc-Si);
»»Polycrystalline (Poly c-Si), sometimes
referred to as multi-crystalline (mc-Si); and
2.2 SECoND-GENEratIoN PV
tECHNoLoGIES: tHIN-FILM SoLar CELLS
After more than 20 years of R&D, thin-film solar cells
are beginning to be deployed in significant quantities.
Thin-film solar cells could potentially provide lower cost
electricity than c-Si wafer-based solar cells. However,
this isn’t certain, as lower capital costs, due to lower
production and materials costs, are offset to some extent
by lower efficiencies and very low c-Si module costs
make the economics even more challenging. Thin-film
solar cells are comprised of successive thin layers, just
1 to 4 µm thick, of solar cells deposited onto a large,
inexpensive substrate such as glass, polymer, or metal.
As a consequence, they require a lot less semiconductor
material to manufacture in order to absorb the same
amount of sunlight (up to 99% less material than
crystalline solar cells). In addition, thin films can be
packaged into flexible and lightweight structures, which
can be easily integrated into building components
(building-integrated PV, BIPV). The three primary types
of thin-film solar cells that have been commercially
developed are:
»»Amorphous silicon (a-Si and a-Si/µc-Si);
»»EFG ribbon silicon and silicon sheet-defined
film growth (EFG ribbon-sheet c-Si).
Commercial production of c-Si modules began in 1963
when Sharp Corporation of Japan started producing
commercial PV modules and installed a 242 Watt (W) PV
module on a lighthouse, the world’s largest commercial
PV installation at the time (Green, 2001). Crystalline
silicon technologies accounted for about 87% of global
PV sales in 2010 (Schott Solar, 2011). The efficiency
of crystalline silicon modules ranges from 14% to 19%
(see Table 2.1).7 While a mature technology, continued
cost reductions are possible through improvements
in materials and manufacturing processes, and from
economies of scale if the market continues to grow,
enabling a number of high-volume manufacturers to
emerge.
»»Cadmium Telluride (Cd-Te); and
»»Copper-Indium-Selenide (CIS) and CopperIndium-Gallium-Diselenide (CIGS).
Amorphous silicon solar cells, along with CdTe PV cells,
are the most developed and widely known thin-film solar
cells. Amorphous silicon can be deposited on cheap and
very large substrates (up to 5.7 m² of glass) based on
continuous deposition techniques, thus considerably
reducing manufacturing costs. A number of companies
are also developing light, flexible a-Si modules perfectly
suitable for flat and curved surfaces, such as roofs
and facades. Currently, amorphous silicon PV module
efficiencies are in the range 4% to 8%. Very small cells at
laboratory level may reach efficiencies of 12.2% (Mehta,
2010). The main disadvantage of amorphous silicon
It is important to be aware of the hierarchy of efficiency in PV, as a number of efficiencies can be quoted. The highest efficiency for a PV material is
usually the “laboratory” efficiency, where optimum designs are tested. PV cell efficiencies are less than this, because compromises are often required to
make affordable cells. Module efficiency is somewhat lower than cell efficiency, given the losses involved in the PV module system.
7
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
5
solar cells is that they suffer from a significant reduction
in power output over time (15% to 35%), as the sun
degrades their performance. Even thinner layers could
increase the electric field strength across the material
and provide better stability and less reduction in power
output, but this reduces light absorption and hence cell
efficiency. A notable variant of amorphous silicon solar
cells is the multi-junction thin-film silicon (a-Si/µc-Si)
which consists of a-Si cell with additional layers of a-Si
and micro-crystalline silicon (µc-Si) applied onto the
substrate.8 The advantage of the µc-Si layer is that it
absorbs more light from the red and near infrared part of
the light spectrum, thus increasing the efficiency by up
to 10%. The thickness of the µc-Si layer is in the order of
3 µm and makes the cells thicker and more stable. The
current deposition techniques enable the production of
multi-junction thin-films up to 1.4 m².
Third-generation PV technologies are at the precommercial stage and vary from technologies under
demonstration (e.g. multi-junction concentrating
PV) to novel concepts still in need of basic R&D (e.g.
quantum-structured PV cells). Some third-generation PV
technologies are beginning to be commercialised, but it
remains to be seen how successful they will be in taking
market share from existing technologies. There are four
types of third-generation PV technologies:
»»Concentrating PV (CPV);
»»Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC);
»»Organic solar cells; and
Cadmium Telluride thin-film PV solar cells have lower
production costs and higher cell efficiencies (up to
16.7% [Green, 2011]) than other thin-film technologies.
This combination makes CdTe thin-films the most
economical thin-film technology currently available, with
manufacturing costs of under USD 0.75/W achieved by
at least one producer (First Solar, 2011). The two main
raw materials are cadmium and tellurium. Cadmium
is a by-product of zinc mining and tellurium is a byproduct of copper processing. A potential problem is
that tellurium is produced in far lower quantities than
cadmium and availability in the long-term may depend
on whether the copper industry can optimise extraction,
refining and recycling yields. Cadmium also has issues
around its toxicity that may limit its use.
Concentrating PV (CPV) systems utilise optical devices,
such as lenses or mirrors, to concentrate direct solar
radiation onto very small, highly efficient multi-junction
solar cells made of a semiconductor material. The
sunlight concentration factor ranges from 2 to 100
suns (low- to medium-concentration) up to 1 000 suns
(high concentration). To be effective, the lenses need
to be permanently oriented towards the sun, using a
single- or double-axis tracking system for low and high
concentrations, respectively. Cooling systems (active or
passive) are needed for some concentrating PV designs,
while other novel approaches can get round this need.
Copper-Indium-Selenide (CIS) and Copper-IndiumGallium-Diselenide (CIGS) PV cells offer the highest
efficiencies of all thin-film PV technologies. CIS solar
cell production has been successfully commercialised by
many firms in conjunction with universities (e.g. Wurth
Solar, Solibro, Miasole, Nanosolar, Avancis, SolarFrontier
and Honda Soltec). Current module efficiencies are in
the range of 7% to 16%, but efficiencies of up to 20.3%
have been achieved in the laboratory, close to that of c-Si
cells (ZSW, 2010 and Green, 2011). The race is now on to
increase the efficiency of commercial modules. By 2010,
CIGS producer Solar Frontier has reached an annual
production capacity of 1 GW (Bank Sarasin, 2010).
Low- to medium-concentration systems (up to 100 suns)
can be combined with silicon solar cells, but higher
temperatures will reduce their efficiency, while high
concentration systems (beyond 500 suns) are usually
associated with multi-junction solar cells made by
semiconductor compounds from groups III and V of the
periodic table (e.g. gallium arsenide), which offer the
highest PV conversion efficiency. Multi-junction (either
‘tandem’ or ‘triple’ junction) solar cells consist of a stack
of layered p–n junctions, each made from a distinct set
of semiconductors, with different band gap and spectral
absorption to absorb as much of the solar spectrum as
possible. Most commonly employed materials are
8
6
2.3 tHIrD-GENEratIoN PV tECHNoLoGIES
These are sometimes also referred to as micromorphous silicon cells.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
»»Novel and emerging solar cell concepts.
Concentrating photovoltaic technology
Ge (0.67 eV), GaAs or InGaAs (1.4 eV), and InGaP (1.85
eV). A triple-junction cell with band gaps of 0.74, 1.2 and
1.8 eV would reach a theoretical efficiency of 59%. Given
their complexity and costs, multi-junctions are used for
small-area solar cells with high sunlight concentration or
in space applications (Nature Photonics, 2010).
Commercial CPV modules with silicon-based cells offer
efficiency in the range of 20% to 25%. CPV based on
multi-junction solar cells using III-V semiconductors have
achieved laboratory efficiency of more than 40% (IEA,
2010).9 Commercial multi-junction devices manufactured
by Sharp, Emcore, Spectrolab and Azur have efficiencies
of around 35% - significantly higher than conventional
single-junction c-SI solar cells. Continued R&D holds the
promise of increasing CPV efficiencies up to 45% or even
50% (Cotal, 2009).
To maximise the electricity generation, CPV modules
need to be permanently oriented towards the sun, using
a single- or double-axis sun-tracking system. Multijunction solar cells, along with sun-tracking systems,
result in expensive CPV modules in comparison with
conventional PV. On the other hand, their higher
efficiency and the smaller surface area of active material
required may eventually compensate for the higher
costs, depending on the evolution of costs and efficiency.
Because CPV modules rely on direct sunlight, they need
to be used in regions with clear skies and high direct
solar irradiation to maximise performance.
Dye-sensitized solar cells
Dye-sensitized solar cells use photo-electrochemical
solar cells, which are based on semiconductor structures
formed between a photo-sensitised anode and an
electrolyte. In a typical DSSC, the semiconductor
nanocrystals serve as antennae that harvest the sunlight
(photons) and the dye molecule is responsible for the
charge separation (photocurrent)10. It is unique in that
it mimics natural photosynthesis (Grätzel, 1991). These
cells are attractive because they use low-cost materials
and are simple to manufacture. They release electrons
from, for example, titanium dioxide covered by a lightabsorbing pigment. However, their performance can
degrade over time with exposure to UV light and the use
of a liquid electrolyte can be problematic when there is a
risk of freezing.
Laboratory efficiencies of around 12% have been
achieved due to the development of new broadband
dyes and electrolytes (Grätzel, 2009), however,
commercial efficiencies are low - typically under 4% to
5%. The main reason why efficiencies of DSSC are low is
because there are very few dyes that can absorb a broad
spectral range. An interesting area of research is the use
of nanocrystalline semiconductors that can allow DSSCs
to have a broad spectral coverage. Thousands of organic
dyes have been studied and tested in order to design,
synthesise and assemble nanostructured materials that
will allow higher power conversion efficiencies for DSSCs.
organic solar cells
Organic solar cells are composed of organic or polymer
materials (such as organic polymers or small organic
molecules). They are inexpensive, but not very efficient.
They are emerging as a niche technology, but their
future development is not clear. Their success in recent
years has been due to many significant improvements
that have led to higher efficiencies. Organic PV
module efficiencies are now in the range 4% to 5% for
commercial systems and 6% to 8% in the laboratory
(OrgaPVnet, 2009).
In addition to the low efficiency, a major challenge
for organic solar cells is their instability over time.
Suppliers of organic solar cells are moving towards full
commercialisation and have announced plans to increase
production to more than 1 GW by 2012 (EPIA, 2011a).
Organic cell production uses high-speed and lowtemperature roll-to-roll manufacturing processes and
standard printing technologies. As a result, organic solar
cells may be able to compete with other PV technologies
in some applications, because manufacturing costs are
continuing to decline and are expected to reach
USD 0.50/W by 2020 (EPIA, 2011a).
Organic cells can be applied to plastic sheets in a manner
similar to the printing and coating industries, meaning that
organic solar cells are lightweight and flexible, making
them ideal for mobile applications and for fitting to a
variety of uneven surfaces. This makes them particularly
useful for portable applications, a first target market for
this technology. Potential uses include battery chargers
for mobile phones, laptops, radios, flashlights, toys and
almost any hand-held device that uses a battery. The
9
Solar Junctions (U.S.) reported that USDOE NREL has confirmed that the III-V multi-junction CPV cell developed by Solar Junctions has achieved a
record 43.5% efficiency at greater than 400 suns and preserved an efficiency as high as 43% out to 1000 suns (Solar Junction, 2011).
10
This type solar cell is also known as the Grätzel cell, after its inventor Michael Grätzel.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
7
modules can be fixed almost anywhere to anything, or
they can be incorporated into the housing of a device.
They can also be rolled up or folded for storage when not
in use. These properties will make organic PV modules
attractive for building-integrated applications as it will
expand the range of shapes and forms where PV systems
can be applied. Another advantage is that the technology
uses abundant, non-toxic materials and is based on a very
scalable production process with high productivity.
Novel and emerging solar cell concepts
In addition to the above mentioned third-generation
technologies, there are a number of novel solar cell
technologies under development that rely on using
quantum dots/wires, quantum wells, or super lattice
technologies (Nozik, 2011 and Raffaelle, 2011). These
technologies are likely to be used in concentrating
PV technologies where they could achieve very high
efficiencies by overcoming the thermodynamic limitations
of conventional (crystalline) cells. However, these high-
efficiency approaches are in the fundamental materials
research phase. Furthest from the market are the novel
concepts, often incorporating enabling technologies such
as nanotechnology, which aim to modify the active layer
to better match the solar spectrum (Leung, 2011).
2.4 tHE SoLar PV rESourCE
Solar PV systems operate in the presence of direct or
diffuse solar irradiation. The higher the level of solar
resource, the lower the LCOE will be. Siting solar PV
systems in areas with high solar resources, usually
expressed as annual mean figures in kWh/m2/year or
as kWh/m2/day, will therefore minimise the cost of
electricity from solar PV.
The global solar resource is massive. Around 885
million TWh worth of solar radiation reaches the Earth’s
surface each year (IEA, 2011). The solar resource varies
figure 2.1: global mean horizonTal irradiance
Source: 3Tier, 2012.
8
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
significantly over the day, week and month depending
on local meteorological conditions. However, most of the
annual variation is related to the Earth’s geography.
Figure 2.1 presents the global solar resource, expressed
as the global horizontal irradiation (GHI). GHI is the total
amount of shortwave radiation received from above by a
horizontal surface. This is expressed as W/m2 and includes
both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal
irradiance (DIF). In Europe, the average solar resource is
a round 1 200 kWh/m2/year, while in the Middle East it
typically varies between 1 800 and 2 300 kWh/m /year.
The global horizontal irradiance as presented in Figure 2.1
is an overall measure of the solar resource. However,
using tilting collectors can increase the irradiance (per
unit of surface area) by up to 35% (500 kWh m2/year),
especially for latitudes lower than 30°S and higher than
30°N. Tracking can also increase the yield, but with
considerable additional expense.
Figure 2.2 presents the solar resource for the United
States for PV systems tilted at an angle equal to the
latitude in which they are situated and facing due South.
If the PV modules are not orientated due South, the
electricity production would be correspondingly less.
The yield of a solar PV system in the United States can
vary by a factor of two or more, depending on where
it is sited. The United States has one of the best solar
resources of developed countries, with particularly good
resources in the South-West.
2.5 SuMMarY oF PV tECHNoLoGIES
Below are the key characteristics, strengths and
weaknesses of the different PV technologies:
»»First-generation solar cells dominate the
market with their low costs and the best
figure 2.2: The solar pv resource in The uniTed sTaTes
Source: NREL.11
11
See http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
9
10 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
8
7
%
%
W
m2
m
Confirmed maximum
PV Module efficiency
Current PV module
cost
Market share in 2009
Market share in 2010
Maximum PV module
output power
PV module size
Area needed per kW
State of
commercialisation
1.4-2.5
2.0
%
USD/W
2
%
Commercial PV Module
efficiency at AM1.5
Mature with largescale production
87
83
< 1.4
23
15-19
20-24
Mature with
large-scale
production
320
2
3
< 1.4
16
13-15
14-18
%
Confirmed solar cell
efficiency at AM1.5
24.7
%
Polycrystalline
silicon (pc-Si)
Best research solar cell
efficiency at AM1.5*
Single crystalline
silicon (sc-Si)
Units
Technology
1st Generation PV
Table 2.1: an overview and comparison of major pv Technologies
Early deployment
phase, mediumscale production
10
0.6-1.0
120
9
13
~ 0.9
12.1
7-11
10-12
20.3
Copper Indium
Gallium
Diselenide (CIS/
CIGS)
Early
deployment
phase,
small-scale
production
11
0.72
120
~ 0.9
11.2
8-11
8-10
16.5
Cadmium
Telluride solar
cells (CdTe)
Just commercialised,
small-scale
production
-
-
120
-
-
-
25
25-30
36-41
43.5
III-V compound
Multijunction,
Concentrated PV
(CPV)
R&D phase
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1-5
8.8
11.1
Dye-sensitized
(DSSC)
3rd Generation PV
R&D phase
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
8.3
11.1
Organic or
Polymer
(OPV)
*Note: Standard Testing Conditions, temperature 25oC, light intensity 1000W/m2, air mass 1.5.
Early deployment
phase, mediumscale production
15
1.4
300
2
1
~ 0.8
7.1/ 10.0
5-8
6-8
13.2 Tandem
junction
10.4 Single
Amorphous silicon
(a-Si)
2nd Generation PV
commercially available efficiency. They
are a relatively mature PV technology,
with a wide range of well-established
manufacturers. Although very significant
cost reductions occurred in recent years,
the costs of the basic materials are
relatively high and it is not clear whether
further cost reductions will be sufficient to
achieve full economic competitiveness in
the wholesale power generation market in
areas with modest solar resources.
»»Second-generation thin-film PV
technologies are attractive because of
their low material and manufacturing
costs, but this has to be balanced by lower
efficiencies than those obtained from
first-generation technologies. Thin-film
technologies are less mature than first-
generation PV and still have a modest
market share, except for utility-scale
systems. They are struggling to compete
with very low c-Si module prices and
also face issues of durability, materials
availability and materials toxicity (in the
case of Cadmium).
»»Third-generation technologies are yet to be
commercialised at any scale. Concentrating
PV has the potential to have the highest
efficiency of any PV module, although it is not
clear at what cost premium. Other organic
or hybrid organic/conventional (DSSC) PV
technologies are at the R&D stage. They offer
low efficiency, but also low cost and weight,
and free-form shaping. Therefore, they could
fill niche markets (e.g. mobile applications)
where these features are required.
UN Photo library
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
11
3. Current global
PV market trends
3.1 totaL INStaLLED PV CaPaCItY
This rapid expansion in capacity has led to significant
cost reductions. The learning rate for the price of PV
modules is estimated to be around 20% to 22%% (23% to
24% for thin films and 19% to 20% for c-Si), so that each
time the cumulative installed capacity has doubled, PV
module costs have declined by 20% to 22% (EPIA, 2011a
and Kersten, 2011).
PV is one of the fastest growing renewable energy
technologies today and is projected to play a major role
in global electricity production in the future. Driven by
attractive policy incentives (e.g. feed-in tariffs and tax
breaks), the global installed PV capacity has multiplied
by a factor of 37 in ten years from 1.8 GW in 2000 to 67.4
GW at the end of 2011, a growth rate of 44% per year
(Figure 3.1) (EPIA, 2012). New capacity installed in 2011
was 27.7 GW, two-thirds more than the new capacity
added in 2010. Assuming an average capacity factor of
0.2 would imply that solar PV in 2011 produced 118 TWh
of electrical power.
3.2 aNNuaL PV CaPaCItY aDDItIoNS
Up until the mid-1990s, most PV systems were standalone off-grid applications, such as telecommunications
units, remote houses and rural electricity supply. Since
80
70
60
GW
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
rest of World
2002
2003
China
2004
2005
North america
2006
2007
other aPEC
2008
Japan
2009
2010
2011
European union
figure 3.1: evoluTion of global cumulaTive insTalled capaciTy, 2000-2011.
Source: EPIA, 2011b and EPIA, 2012.
12 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
then, the number of grid-connected systems has
increased rapidly due to the impact of various support
and incentive schemes introduced in many countries. In
the last decade—and this trend has accelerated in recent
years—grid-connected installations have become the
largest sector for new PV installations. The growth in
utility-scale systems has also accelerated in recent years
and is now an important market.
In 2010, new installed capacity PV capacity was 16.6 GW.
Most of this growth was driven by the rapid expansion
of the German and Italian markets. With 7.4 GW installed
in Germany in just one year, the country continues to
dominate the global PV market. Italy installed 2.3 GW,
starting to exploit some of the potential of its huge solar
resources. Other countries also saw significant growth
(EPIA, 2011a).
In 2011, 27.7 GW of new PV capacity was installed,
two-thirds more than was installed in 2010. Europe
accounted for around three-quarters (20.9 GW) of all
new capacity added in 2011. Italy built on its growth
in 2010, adding an impressive 9 GW of new capacity,
increasing total installed capacity by 260%. Germany
added 7.5 GW in 2011. Six countries added more than
one GW in 2011 (i.e. Italy, Germany, China, United States,
Japan and France).
Despite the rapid growth of the PV market, less than
0.2% of global electricity production is generated
by PV. The market outlook is entering an uncertain
phase with the problems facing the global economy. It
remains to be seen what the long-term impact of the
economic challenges facing the world economy and
government budgets will have on the PV market. Given
that the European market has accounted for 80% of
global demand in recent years, any reduction in annual
demand in Europe as a result of the depressed economic
situation will have a large impact on supply and demand
in the global PV industry. However, any slowing in the
European market could conceivably be offset by policy
measures that boost other PV markets, such as Australia,
Canada, China, India, Japan, the United States and other
countries that are experiencing strong growth. The
biggest emerging markets are China, the Middle East,
South Korea, India and other Southeast-Asian countries.
Although emerging PV markets will probably not grow
by as much in absolute terms as Europe has done in
recent years, growth in these markets looks set to be
sustained.
3.3 FuturE ProJECtIoNS
oF PV CaPaCItY GroWtH
The global PV market growth in 2011 was well below
manufacturers’ capabilities, as global PV silicon wafer
capacity may have reached 50.9 GW/year by the end of
2011 (a 62% increase on 2010) and the total c-Si solar cell
capacity may have reached 60.6 GW/year in 2011 (a 91%
increase on 2010) (EPIA, 2011b). Most of this expansion
took place in China.
Most of the PV growth in recent years has been driven
by promotion policies, including effective feed-in tariffs
(FiT) and other incentives that have helped develop
markets in key countries, reduce prices (through
deployment), improve the economics of PV investments
and raise investors’ interest. There are already over 120
PV power plants with a capacity of 10 MW or more
(Komoto, 2010). The largest operational solar PV plant
is an 100 MW ground-mounted plant in California. The
largest building-integrated/roof-mounted system (11.8
MW) is located in Spain (Komoto, 2010).
Projections to 2015 are particularly challenging, given
that new installed capacity has been growing so rapidly.
Projections from 2010 to 2015, made in 2011, already risk
being out of date, given the rapid growth in installed
capacity in 2011. Analysing trends in 2011 resulted in
projections of total installed PV capacity in 2015 of
between 131 GW and 196 GW (EPIA, 2011b). Although
the upper range of this projection still looks reasonable,
the lower end looks unduly pessimistic as even if new
capacity growth stabilised at 2011 levels, this figure
would already be reached by around the end of 2013 or
early 2014.
Although it remains to be seen what impact, if any,
the continued economic weakness in Europe might
eventually have on capacity additions.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) PV roadmap is
based on scenarios that yield an average annual market
growth rate of 17% in the next decade, leading to a global
cumulative installed PV power capacity of 200 GW by
2020 (IEA, 2010). Given the pace of developments in
the PV sector, even small differences in start years or
assumptions can lead to very divergent results for future
installed PV capacity and the IEA roadmap is likely to
have underestimated installed capacity by 2020.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
13
50
40
30
GW
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
EPIa Moderate
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
EPIa Policy-Driven
figure 3.2: epia scenarios for global annual new insTalled pv capaciTy, 2000 To 2015
Source: EPIA, 2011b.
14 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
4. Cost and performance
P
V is a mature, proven technology that is rapidly
approaching grid parity.12 It is a renewable, secure
energy source with very high plant reliability and is
not exposed to any fuel price volatility. PV has made
remarkable progress in reducing costs, as until recently
grid parity still seemed very far away. It was only a few
years ago that PV electricity was four to five times more
expensive than fossil fuels. However, with increases
in fossil fuel prices and continuing cost reductions in
PV modules, grid parity could occur as early as 2012
to 2013 in sunny regions of USA, Japan and Southern
Europe. Other regions with lower electricity production
costs and/or more moderate solar resources may
achieve grid parity as early as 2020 (Breyer and
Gerlach, 2011). That is without taking into account
that PV is often already competitive for peak power
production, for generation in grid-constrained areas,
and for many off-grid applications.
The cost of the electricity generated by a PV system is
determined by the capital cost (CAPEX), the discount
rate, the variable costs (OPEX), the level of solar
irradiation and the efficiency of the solar cells. Of these
parameters, the capital cost, the cost of finance and
efficiency are the most critical and improvements in
these parameters provide the largest opportunity for
cost reductions.
The capital cost of a PV system is composed of the PV
module cost and the Balance of system (BOS) cost. The
PV module is the interconnected array of PV cells and
its cost is determined by raw material costs, notably
silicon prices, cell processing/manufacturing and module
assembly costs. The BOS cost includes items, such as the
cost of the structural system (e.g. structural installation,
racks, site preparation and other attachments), the
electrical system costs (e.g. the inverter, transformer,
wiring and other electrical installation costs) and the
battery or other storage system cost in the case of offgrid applications.
4.1 SoLar PV MoDuLE PrICE/CoSt
The PV module cost is typically between a third and a half
of the total capital cost of a PV system, depending on the
size of the project and the type of PV module.13 Projecting
PV module costs into the future is complicated by the high
learning rate of 22% that has been experienced historically
(see Figure 4.1).14 With the PV market growing so rapidly
compared to the installed base, projections of cost
reductions can quickly become out of date.
The absolute cost and structure of PV modules varies
by technology. Conventional c-Si PV modules are the
most expensive PV technology, with the exception of
CPV modules, but they also have the highest commercial
efficiency. However, CIGS modules are approaching the
efficiency levels of c-Si modules and are cheaper.
Figure 4.2 illustrates average worldwide PV module cost
structures by technology.
Accurate data on global average PV module prices
are difficult to obtain and in reality there is a wide
range of prices, depending on the cost structure of the
manufacturer, market features and module efficiency.
However, an estimate for the global price of c-Si PV
modules in 2008 was USD 4.05/W and this had declined
to USD 2.21/W in 2010 (Solarbuzz, 2011), a decline of 45%
in just two years.
The rate of decline in costs has not slowed and by
January 2012 spot market and factory gate prices in
Europe for low-cost Chinese and other emerging market
manufacturers of c-Si modules had dropped to around
USD 1.05/W (Photovoltaik, 2012). Spot and factory gate
prices for c-Si modules from European, Japanese and
other manufacturers had declined to between USD 1.22
and USD 1.4/W (Table 4.1).
By the fourth quarter of 2010, the cost of monocrystalline
silicon PV modules in Europe was between USD 1.43/W
12
The term “grid parity” is often used loosely and inconsistently. In this paper, it is meant to represent the point where the LCOE of PV, without subsidies,
is the same or lower than the residential electricity price, excluding taxes. Other definitions include a price equal to or lower than the price of peak,
shoulder or base-load electricity generation. In some cases, it will include or exclude taxes and subsidies.
13
PV module prices are usually quoted per “DC Watt peak” (Wp), based on the rated PV module output power (at the maximum power point) under
Standard test condition AM1.5 (solar insolation 1000W/m2, temperature 25oC). All prices in this paper are “DC Watt peak”.
14
After deviating from the historical trend between 2003 and 2008 due to supply bottlenecks, learning rates have returned towards the historic rate in
recent years (Hearps, 2011).
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
15
Global Module averange selling price (2010 USD/Wp)
100.00
1979
2006 c-Si price increase
due to polysilicon shortage
1992
10.00
1998
2002
2004
2011
$1.3-1.5
2010
$1.52
1.00
22% price reduction for each
doubling of cumulative volume
2015
$1.08
2014
$1.05
0.10
1
10
100
1.000
10.000
100.000
Cumulative production volume (MW)
1.000.000
c-Si
Cdte
figure 4.1 The global pv module price learning curve for c-si wafer-based and cdTe modules, 1979 To 2015
Sources: based on data from EPIA and Photovoltaic Technology Platform, 2010 and Liebreich, 2011.
PV module price breakdown
100%
80%
60%
Module
Cell
40%
20%
Wafer
0%
Efficiency
C-Si
16%
CdTe
12%
TF-Si
12%
Depreciation
Materials
CIGS
15%
Labor
DSSC
10%
o&M
OPV
10%
Glass
figure 4.2 average worldwide pv module price level and Their cosT sTrucTure by Technology (2010).
Sources: IRENA and data from Japan’s National Institute for Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)
16 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
17
1.98
1.51
1.45
1.26
2.86
2.10
1.91
1.89
1.21
Japanese/Western c-Si **
Chinese major c-Si ***
Emerging economies c-Si
****
High efficiency thin-film (via
distribution, First Solar )
High efficiency c-Si
Japanese/Western c-Si
Chinese major c-Si
Emerging economies- c-Si
High efficiency thin-film (via
distribution, First Solar)
1.20
1.75
1.87
2.05
2.20
1.30
1.35
1.42
1.81
2.22
Q1
1.37
1.43
1.51
1.74
2.29
Q3
1.27
1.43
1.45
1.66
2.21
Q4
1.16
1.36
1.39
1.40
2.20
Q1
1.22
1.70
1.83
1.95
2.55
1.25
1.78
1.87
1.95
2.55
1.19
1.74
1.80
1.93
2.53
1.20
1.50
1.43
1.91
2.30
Factory-gate price in the United States (USD/Watt)
1.39
1.42
1.52
1.83
2.25
Q2
2010
Notes: Based on short-term contract prices for quantities of 0.5 MW or more. Spot market prices are typically more volatile. * Sunpower and
Sanyo ** Sharp, Kyocera, Solarworld and Schoth *** Suntech, Yungli, Trina Solar and Green Energy, etc. **** Chinese, Korean and Indian
manufacturers.
2.45
Q4
High efficiency c-Si
PV module suppliers
2009
Factory-gate price in Europe (USD/Watt)
Table 4.1 summary of The worldwide markeT price of pv modules , Q4 2009 To Q1 2012
1.25
1.50
1.47
1.91
2.30
0.98
1.03
1.39
1.08
2.10
Q3
0.93
1.50
1.43
1.91
2.30
0.93
1,02
1.39
1.22
2.00
Q4
0.93
1.41
1.34
1.82
2.20
0.93
1.02
1.24
1.22
1.94
Q1
2012
Sources: Solarbuzz, 2011; Photovoltaik, 2012 and Luo, 2011.
1.22
1.50
1.43
1.91
2.30
1.05
1.31
1.39
1.27
2.15
Q2
2011
(emerging economy manufacturers) and USD 2.21/W
(high efficiency c-Si modules), while thin-film PV
modules cost USD 1.27/W. In the United States, the
price range for monocrystalline silicon PV modules was
between USD 1.74/W and USD 2.53/W, with thin-film PV
modules costing USD 1.19/W. In general, factory-gate
prices appear to be slightly higher in the United States
than in Europe (Figure 4.3). This is perhaps due to the
higher support offered by United States’ policies in 2010.
Also, Chinese modules tend to be cheaper than modules
from OECD manufacturers. In the past this could be
attributed to their lower quality, but this is not always the
case as today many Chinese makers meet international
and OECD national quality standards.
PV module prices have continued to decline in 2011
and the lowest prices in the market were USD 1.59/W
for monocrystralline PV modules, USD 1.63/W for
multicrystralline PV modules, USD 1.52/W for CdTe
thin-film PV modules and USD 1.22/W for amorphous
silicon PV modules (Bolman, 2011). However, average
prices are significantly higher. In Germany, market
prices for PV modules made in Europe and the United
States (excluding those from First Solar and Sunpower),
averaged USD 2.15/W in the second quarter of 2011,
slightly higher than those of Japanese PV modules at
USD 2.13/W. In contrast, the price of PV modules from
Asian countries was USD 1.87/W.
The PV module prices presented so far are factory gate
prices. Accurate data on retail prices for PV modules
are difficult to obtain, but are estimated to be between
35% and 45% higher than factory gate prices (Figure
4.4). The purchase of multiple PV modules can reduce
2.0
1.8
Europe (2010 USD/Wp)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Japanese/Western
c-Si
China Majors
c-Si
Emerging
c-Si brands
High efficiency thin film
(via distribution)
United States (2010 USD/Wp)
2.5
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Japanese/Western
c-Si
China Majors
c-Si
Emerging
c-Si brands
High efficiency thin film
(via distribution)
figure 4.3: european and uniTed sTaTes pv module facTory-gaTe prices, Q1 2010 To Q1 2012.
Sources: Solarbuzz, 2011; Photovoltaik, 2012 and Luo, 2011.
18 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
4.00
PV module price (2010 USD/Wp)
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Q1 2010
retail (one unit)
Q2 2010
retail (multiple units)
Q3 2010
Distributor Prices
Q4 2010
Factory Gate Prices
figure 4.4: weighTed average reTail c-si pv module price levels and sTrucTure in 2010.
Source: Solarbuzz, 2011.
prices by almost one-tenth for retail customers. The retail
prices of c-Si PV modules in Europe, the United States
and China are estimated to average around USD 3.00/W
to USD 3.50/W (Solarbuzz, 2011). The margins charged
by distributors and retailers appear to have declined by
around 10% (USD 0.36/W) between the first quarter and
the last quarter of 2010.
4.2 baLaNCE oF SYStEM CoSt
The BOS costs and installation comprise the remaining
capital costs for a PV system. The BOS costs largely
depend on the nature of the installation. For utility-scale
PV plants, it can be as low as 20% (for a simple gridconnected system) or as high as 70% (for an off-grid
system), with 40% being representative of a standard
utility-scale ground-mounted system (IEA PVPS, 2009).
For residential and small-scale systems, the BOS and
installation costs comprise 55% to 60% of total PV
system costs. The average cost of BOS and installation
for PV systems is in the range of USD 1.6 to USD 1.85/W,
depending on whether the PV system is ground-mounted
or rooftop, and whether it has a tracking system (Bony,
2010 and Photon, 2011). The LCOE of PV systems is
therefore highly dependent on BOS and installation costs,
which include:
»»The inverter, which converts the direct
current (DC) PV output into alternating
current (AC);
»»The components required for mounting and
racking the PV system;
»»The combiner box and miscellaneous
electrical components;
»»Site preparation and installation (i.e. roof
preparation for residential systems, or site
preparation for utility-scale plants), labour
costs for installation and grid connection;
»»Battery storage for off-grid systems; and
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
19
»»System design, management, installer
overhead, permit fees and any up-front
financing costs.
Rooftop-mounted systems have BOS costs around USD
0.25/W higher than ground-mounted systems, primarily
due to the additional cost of preparing the roof to receive
the PV modules and slightly more costly installation. In
absolute terms, the electric system costs are roughly the
same in both systems and account for around one-third of
the BOS costs in ground-mounted systems and somewhat
less in residential rooftop systems due to their higher BOS
costs (Figure 4.5).
The inverter is one of the key components of a PV
system. It converts the DC electricity from the PV
modules into AC electricity. Inverter sizes range from
small textbook-sized devices for residential use to
large container-sized solutions for utility-scale systems.
The size and numbers of inverters required depend on
the installed PV capacity and system design options.
Inverters are the primary power electronics components
of a PV system and typically account for 5% of total
installed system costs. Currently, inverter cost ranges
from USD 0.27/W to USD 1.08/W, depending on the
system size (Photon, 2011b). Larger systems tend to have
lower inverter costs per unit of capacity, with systems
in the 10 to 100 kW range having costs of between
USD 0.23 to USD 0.57/W. However, some of the most
competitive inverters for small-scale applications (<5
kW) can rival those costs, as the range in 2010 was USD
0.31 to USD 1.03/W (Photon, 2011b).
Mounting structures and racking hardware components
for PV modules are typically pre-engineered systems of
aluminium or steel racks. They account for approximately
6% of the total capital cost of PV systems (Mehta and
Maycock, 2011). Mounting structures vary depending on
where the PV systems are sited, with different solutions
for residential and commercial systems, for roof types
balance of system
business process
racking
Electrical installation
Module
Structural installation
SIte prep, attachments
Wiring, transformer
2.0
4
1.85
3.75
Installed Cost (2010 USD/Wp)
3.50
Inverter
1.60
3
1.5
2
1.0
1
0.5
0.0
0
Ground-Mounted
rooftop
Ground-Mounted
PV System
rooftop
BOS
figure 4.5: cosT breakdown of currenT convenTional pv sysTems in The uniTed sTaTes , 2010
Source: Bony, 2010
20 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
(e.g. flat membrane, sloped metal) and ground-mounted
systems. Because of their low value and substantial
weight, mounting and racking structures are generally
produced and/or assembled locally, as shipping would
be prohibitively expensive, except from countries
where labour costs are so low that they can offset
transportation costs.
Combiner box and miscellaneous electrical components
include all remaining installation components, including
combiner boxes, wires/conductors, conduits, data
monitoring systems, and other miscellaneous hardware.
Combiner boxes are the only PV system-specific product
included in this category and they are sourced from
dedicated manufacturers who supply pre-engineered
systems. Other miscellaneous electrical hardware (e.g.
wires, electrical conduits, overcurrent protection) are
commodity products and can be sourced virtually
anywhere.
Site preparation and system installation are major
components of the BOS and installation costs. They
include site preparation (roof or ground-based),
any physical construction works (e.g. electrical
infrastructure), installation and connection of the system.
Labour costs make up the majority of the installation
costs, and vary by project and country.
System design, management and administrative costs
include system design, legal, permitting, financing and
project management costs. For residential and smallscale PV systems, these costs are typically included in
the total PV installed prices quoted by companies. For
large-scale installations these costs might be managed
directly by the promoter or sub-contracted to a service
provider. When PV system costs are quoted in literature,
these costs are typically included in overhead costs and
profit margins. These soft costs depend significantly
on local conditions. In the United States (2010), they
accounted for an average 37% of total system costs (GTM
Research, 2011).
Electricity storage systems for off-grid PV systems
enable electricity use at night or during cloudy periods.
A variety of electricity storage systems exist, or are under
development, but they are expensive and tend to be
more suited to large-scale applications. For small-scale
systems, standard lead-acid batteries are the technology
of choice. Redox flow batteries represent an emerging
option, but these are not yet commercially available.
Capacitors are another emerging technology, but are
more suited to very short-term electricity storage.
Batteries increase the cost of the PV system, but much
less than grid connection in remote areas. They are
needed not only for remote residential and commercial
applications, but also for off-grid repeater stations for
mobile phones, radio beacons, etc.
Lead-acid batteries are the oldest, most widely applied
electricity storage technology and are a proven option.
Car or truck batteries are sometimes used because they
are the cheapest option, but they are not designed for
use with power generation technologies and have a short
lifespan (as low as 50 cycles). Deep-cycle, lead-acid
batteries are a proven option, with much longer lifespans
than car batteries. However, even deep-cycle batteries
will last longer if the discharge rate is kept low. For
instance, limiting the discharge to 20% or less can allow
the battery to last for ten years. The trade-off is higher
initial costs, as 5 kWh of battery storage is needed for
every 1 kWh of electricity used from storage.
In sunny African conditions a 1 kW PV system may supply
1 500 kWh per year (4 kWh/day). Assuming half of this
energy is needed in the evenings, this means 2 kWh of
useful storage is needed, requiring 10 kWh of battery
storage if battery life is to be optimised. This represents
an investment of USD 1 500 (USD 150/kWh), to which
a battery charge controller must be added if this is not
included in the PV system. The addition of storage,
assuming the PV system costs around USD 3 000/kW,
therefore adds 50% to the PV system cost (total USD 4
500/kW).
Other battery options include lithium-ion (Li-ion) or
sodium-sulphur (NAS) batteries. Their cost, at USD 550
to USD 600/kWh, is higher than for deep-cycle, lead-acid
batteries. However, NAS is a new battery technology and
global production capacity is less than 150 MW per year,
so cost reductions are likely. NAS batteries are currently
large-scale storage solutions, with a single NAS battery
being in the several MW capacity range (the battery
will weigh ten tonnes, or more). Production of smaller
scale NAS batteries is just starting. NAS batteries could
therefore be used for a mini-grid, village or small city
size storage solutions. In the longer-term, NAS battery
costs could come down significantly, as they have
been designed to use cheap and abundant materials.
Li-ion batteries are small-scale, often powering laptop
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
21
computers, and may therefore be better suited to highly
modular small-scale off-grid solutions if costs come
down. Other options such as redox flow batteries are still
at a development stage and their practical feasibility is
not yet proven.
Batteries are connected to the PV array via a charge
controller to protect against overcharging or discharging,
and this controller can provide information about the
state of the system. Off-grid PV systems can be hybrids
(e.g. in conjunction with wind and electricity storage)
and / or be combined with a back-up power system (e.g.
a biomass or diesel generator) to ensure a more reliable
supply of electricity or to allow higher loads.
4.3 totaL PV SYStEM CoStS
The total cost of a PV system is made up of the costs of
the PV modules, BOS and installation. While different PV
technologies have different PV module costs, the overall
PV system cost also depends on the size of the system
(due to the economies of scale with large utility-scale
projects), and on whether the system is ground- or roofmounted. To analyse costs, PV systems can be grouped
into four main end-use markets:
»»Residential PV systems typically do
not exceed 20 kW and are usually roofmounted;
»»Large-scale building PV systems typically
do not exceed 1 MW and are placed on large
buildings or complexes, e.g. commercial
buildings, schools, hospitals, universities;
»»Utility-scale PV systems are larger than 1
MW and are generally ground-mounted; and
»»Off-grid applications15 vary in size from
small systems for remote beacons or relay
stations to mid-size systems for homes or
businesses not connected to the grid, all
the way up to large-scale PV systems that
provide electricity to off-grid communities.
The total installed cost of a PV system also depends
on the project location, scale and funding conditions in
individual countries, and the maturity and size of the
market. For instance, Germany has one of the more
competitive PV markets, given the large domestic PV
market and its history of stable long-term incentives.
Costs of residential PV Systems
In Germany in 2011, the price of a residential PV system
with a capacity of between 2 kW and 5 kW averaged
USD 3 777/kW, including installation (Figure 4.6). In
Italy, Portugal and Spain, the price of the equivalent PV
system is USD 5 787/kW on average, which is about the
same as the average in the United States of USD 5 657/
kW (Photon, 2011a and 2011b).
Larger PV systems with a capacity of between 5 kW
and 10 kW in Germany cost USD 3 600/kW on average,
including installation in 2011 (Photon, 2011a and 2011b).
In the other countries, such as Italy and Portugal, the
average price is USD 5 314/kW. In the United States,
the average price for these systems is USD 5 433/kW
(Photon, 2011b).
The differences in the prices of PV systems in different
countries can also depend on incentive schemes that
are not sufficiently reactive to PV cost reductions. If
incentives are not regularly realigned with declining
PV manufacturing costs, installers and promoters can
maintain high prices and achieve higher margins. Thus,
PV system prices can be higher in countries with higher
solar subsidies.
Costs of Large-scale utility PV Systems
Large-scale utility PV systems are generally at least 1 MW
in size. They operate as any other centralised power plant,
providing power to the grid. Thousands of such PV plants
are currently in operation worldwide. In addition to the
choice of the basic PV technology, their cost depends
on whether the system is roof- or ground-mounted, and
whether it is equipped with a sun-tracking mechanism.
15
Off-grid applications dominated the PV market until the mid-1990s. Since then, grid-connected systems have increased rapidly due to the impact of
incentive policies introduced in many countries. The majority of today’s installations are grid-connected, building systems, as incentives are usually the
most generous for these applications. However, large-scale ground-mounted systems have gained a considerable market share in recent years as a result
of changing incentive schemes and the rapid cost reductions of PV systems. Off-grid systems are still an important market in regions with poor grid access,
but their share of new PV installations has dropped to less than 10%.
22 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
8000
7000
2010 USD/kW
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Germany
Italy
France
Price range 2 - 5 kW
Spain
Portugal
Price range 5 - 10 kW
uS
China
India
Japan
Price range > 10 kW
figure 4.6: insTalled pv sysTem prices for residenTial applicaTions in differenT counTries, 2011
Source: IRENA and Photon, 2011a.
Average system prices and a cost breakdown for typical
utility-scale c-Si PV systems installed in Europe and the
United States in 2010 are shown in Figure 4.7.
Looking at different utility-scale PV technologies in
2010, fixed, ground-mounted systems were the cheapest
option for c-Si-based utility-scale systems with an
average cost of USD 4.19/W. Adding a tracking system
increases the costs to an average of USD 6.39/W, only
slightly cheaper than mounting the PV system on roofs
(USD 6.45/W). Thin-film PV systems are cheaper than
c-Si systems and have a higher market share for utilityscale application. In 2010, ground-mounted fixed systems
using thin-film PV modules cost an average of USD
3.87/W (Solarbuzz, 2011).
Figure 4.8 highlights the cost hierarchy and breakdown
for PV systems of different scales and characteristics.
Most of the economy of scale achieved by utility-scale
PV systems comes from BOS cost reductions and
saving in the installation, permitting and commissioning
costs. Lower financing costs can also be achieved,
depending on the project specifics. One-axis tracking,
although it increases capital costs by 10% to 20%, can
be economically attractive because of the increase in
energy-production (25% to 30% more kWh/kW/year in
areas with a good solar resource) (Campbell, 2011).
Data from 92 utility-scale PV projects averaging 10
MW (either installed or proposed) in 2010 in Canada,
Australia, China, Thailand, India, Japan, the Czech
Republic, Belgium, Greece, Spain, France, Germany,
Italy and the United States (Figure 4.9) resulted in an
average installed price in 2010 of USD 4.71/W, about 16%
lower than the average price in 2009 (USD 5.61/W for
117 projects). The average 2010 price for c-Si PV plants
was USD 5.03/W, while the average price for thin-film
plants was USD 4.16/W (Solarbuzz, 2011). PV plants with
capacity above 2 MW do not appear to offer significant
economies of scale (e.g. the cost of a 20 MW is not
significantly lower than a 2 MW plant).
In 2010, the lowest price (USD 3.38/W) was recorded in
Thailand (Figure 4.10), although this result was dominated
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
23
Average market price in Europe
6
2010 USD/Wp
5
4
3
2
1
0
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Installed PV System
PV Modules
Solar Cells
Wafers
Average market price in the United States
Polysilicon
7
6
2010 USD/Wp
5
4
3
2
1
0
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
figure 4.7 cosT breakdowns of Typical uTiliTy-scale c-si pv sysTems insTalled in europe and The uniTed sTaTes, Q1 2009 To Q4 2010.
Source: IRENA and Solarbuzz, 2011.
24 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
8.00
Installed system price (2010 USD/Wp)
7.00
5.71
6.00
4.59
5.00
4.40
3.80
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
residential
49 kWp
Commercial
217 kWp
utility (Fixed axis)
187.5 MWp
utility (one axis)
187.5 MWp dc
Sales tax (5%)
Installer overheads
Permitting and commissioning
tracker
Module
Supply chain cost
Site preparation
Hardware labor
Installation materials
Installer profit
Land acquisition
Electrical labor
Inverter
figure 4.8: sysTem cosT breakdown for residenTial, commercial and uTiliTy-scale c-si pv sysTems in The uniTed sTaTes, 2010.
Source: Goodrich, 2012.
by an 84 MW thin-film PV plant installed in Thailand. The
highest for utility-scale PV plants was recorded in Japan
(USD 6.50/W), albeit the average project size is lower
than in Europe and China. Among the major PV markets,
Germany showed the lowest average price at USD 3.64/W
for c-Si-based PV plants. It was noted that prices of c-Si
systems (USD 3.65/W) were surprisingly close to those
of thin-film systems (USD 3.61/W). The widest price
variation occurred in Italy with lowest and highest figures
of USD 2.89/W and USD 6.67/W. In the United States, the
average price was USD 4.83/W, with an average capacity
of 4.8MW.
Falling PV system prices, the high cost of fossil fuels in
many markets in recent times and effective and broader
incentive schemes have driven the growth in utility-scale
PV plants. Since 2005, more than 1 200 PV plants with a
capacity of 1 MW or more have been commissioned, with
over 120 of these PV plants having an output of 10 MW
or more (Philibert, 2011). Since 2007, the number and size
of MW-scale PV systems has risen, especially in Germany
and Spain (Komoto, 2010). Today’s leading markets for
utility-scale PV systems are Germany, Spain, Canada and
the United States16, but utility-scale PV systems are also
being commissioned in India, China and the Middle East.
An important emerging issue for utility-scale systems is that
BOS and installation costs have, in some cases, not been
declining as fast as the cost of PV modules. Therefore, their
share of the overall PV cost, currently around half of utilityscale c-Si PV system costs, could increase over time.
Some of the largest plants are located in Spain (60 MW Olmedilla, 50 MW Puertollano) and Germany (54 MW Strabkirchen and 53 MW Turnow
Perilack).
16
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
25
< 10 MW
12
10
2010 USD/Wp
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
80
100
PV plant size (MW)
> 10 MW
12
2010 USD/Wp
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
20
40
60
PV plant size (MW)
figure 4.9: insTalled cosTs of uTiliTy-scale pv planTs in 2010 (<10 mw and >10 mw)
Source: Solarbuzz, 2011
26 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
35
6
30
5
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
da
Cana
a
li
austra
average cost
China
f asia
rest o
Japan
roE
any
Germ
Italy
d
unite s
State
MW
2010 USD/Wp
7
0
average system size
figure 4.10: average prices and sizes of large uTiliTy-scale pv planTs by counTry, 2010.
Source: Solarbuzz, 2011
UN Photo library
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
27
5. PV system cost
reduction potential
P
V costs will continue to decline with increased deployment due to the high PV learning rate. However,
significant uncertainty exists on how fast costs will come down in the short-term. On one hand, incentives are
now in place in a number of countries, thus unlocking new markets and a new wave of PV deployment that will help
reduce costs through the learning effect. On the other hand, the uncertain global economic outlook could result in
many investment decisions being delayed or postponed indefinitely, slowing the rate of deployment growth.
5.1 CoSt rEDuCtIoN PotENtIaL
For c-Si PV MoDuLES
The PV module itself accounts for around half of total
PV system costs. The continued reduction in PV modules
costs is therefore a key component of improving the
competitiveness of PV.
While c-Si PV is the most mature PV technology, there
still exists significant room for reducing manufacturing
costs through technology innovation and economies
of scale. According to one study (Mehta and Maycock,
2010), both low- and high-cost manufacturers could
halve their production costs by 2015. Figure 5.1 shows
c-Si PV module cost projections for period 2010 to 2015
and the assumed increase in average PV manufacturing
plant size required to achieve the cost reductions.
Table 5.1 and 5.2 provide more detailed projections,
including the cost breakdown for c-Si PV modules. The
costs of polysilicon and wafer production could decline
dramatically by 2015 driven by the increasing scale of
production and ongoing manufacturing innovations.
Table 5.1: crysTalline silicon pv module prices projecTions for european, norTh american and japanese manufacTurers, 2010 To 2015
High-cost producers
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Production scale (MW)
150
400
650
900
1 150
1 400
Polysilicon production (USD/W)
0.43
0.33
0.23
0.18
0.15
0.13
Silicon wafer production (USD/W)
0.46
0.37
0.33
0.29
0.27
0.25
Solar cell production (USD/W)
0.36
0.29
0.25
0.23
0.20
0.19
PV module production (USD/W)
0.50
0.42
0.37
0.33
0.31
0.29
Total PV module cost (USD/W)
1.75
1.41
1.18
1.03
0.93
0.85
Note: Production scale refers to the annual production capacity of a single manufacturing plant required to achieve the cost presented.
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
28 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
1600
1.8
1.75
1400
1.64
1200
1.47
1.41
1000
1.4
1.36
800
1.26
1.20
1.2
600
1.16
1.03
400
1.0
0.93
200
0.85
0.8
2010
2011E
2012E
Constant scale (350 MW/yr capacity)
Plant size (MW)
Module cost (2010 USD/Wp)
1.6
2013E
2014E
Incresing economies of scale
2015E
0
Manufacturing plant size (MW)
figure 5.1: crysTalline silicon pv module cosT projecTions, 2010 To 2015
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
Table 5.2: crysTalline silicon pv module prices projecTions for low-cosT manufacTurers; 2010 To 2015
Low-cost producers –
China, etc.
2010
2011
2012
2013
20 14
2015
Production scale (MW)
350
600
850
1 100
1 350
1 600
Polysilicon production (USD/W)
0.47
0.39
0.25
0.20
0.16
0.14
Silicon wafer production (USD/W)
0.34
0.28
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.20
Solar cell production (USD/W)
0.24
0.21
0.19
0.18
0.16
0.15
PV module production (USD/W)
0.36
0.31
0.29
0.27
0.25
0.23
Total PV module cost (USD/W)
1.41
1.20
0.99
0.87
0.73
0.73
Note: Production scale refers to the annual production capacity of a single manufacturing plant required to achieve the cost presented.
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
29
Thin-film silicon cost structure, 2010
1.40
0.05
0.05
1.20
0.08
0.08
0.16
0.20
2010 USD/Wp
1.00
Depreciation
Materials
0.03
0.08
0.10
0.80
Labour
utilities
overhead
0.60
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.14
0.21
0.28
0.40
0.20
0.00
amorohous Si 1-j-low cost
amorohous Si 1-j-average
tandem-junction
Si
700
1.4
1.32
500
1.0
1.00
0.99
400
0.82
300
0.82
0.8
0.72
0.6
200
0.64
0.71
Plant capacity (MW)
Module cost (2010 USD/Wp)
600
1.2
0.58
0.63
0.59
100
0.55
0
0.4
2010
2011E
amorphous Si 1-j-low cost
2012E
2013E
2014E
Manufacturing plant size (MW)
2015E
tandem-junction Si
figure 5.2: single juncTion and Tandem sTrucTures of amorphous silicon Thin-film pv module cosT breakdown and projecTions, 2010 To 2015
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
30 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Alternative studies project a similar decline in PV module
prices by 2015. Solarbuzz projects that c-Si PV module
prices will decline from USD 2.17/W in 2010 to as low as
USD 1.07/W in 2015; Lux Research projects a slightly less
aggressive decline to around USD 1.2/W in 2015 (Lux
Research, 2010). Given the rapid cost reductions in 2011,
these projections for average c-Si module prices are
likely to be bettered.
5.2 CoSt rEDuCtIoN PotENtIaL
For tHIN-FILM PV MoDuLES
Thin film PV modules are cheaper than c-Si modules, but
further cost reductions are expected by 2015. Singlejunction amorphous PV modules are projected to decline
from USD 0.99/W in 2010 to just USD 0.55/W, while
tandem-junction silicon PV modules could decline from
USD 1.32/W in 2010 to USD 0.58/W by 2015 (Figure 5.2).
For co-evaporation CIGS PV modules, costs could reduce
from around USD 1.31/W in 2010 to USD 0.63/W by 2015
while the reduction for sputtering-based CIGS systems is
more modest (USD 0.69/W by 2015, Figure 5.3) (Mehta and
Maycock, 2010). CdTe modules’ manufacturing costs could
drop from around USD 0.73/Wp in 2010 to just USD 0.49/
Wp in 2015 (Figure 5.4).
5.3. boS CoSt rEDuCtIoN PotENtIaLS
The BOS and installation costs will become
proportionately more important over time as PV module
costs continue to decline. Therefore, BOS cost reductions
will become vital to continuing the rapid LCOE cost
reductions of PV systems. Among BOS components, the
cost of the inverter is generally well-known while this is
often not the case for remaining electrical, structural and
installation costs, which vary widely depending on local
conditions and labour costs.
Achieving cost reductions is more challenging for BOS
than for PV modules because BOS involves a number
of different components17 and suppliers, more mature
technologies, and is, and will probably always be
due to its nature, a less integrated industry. However,
technological developments to optimise physical design
and reduce BOS costs are still possible. There are many
possible design strategies, but further work will be
required to identify what combination of approaches
is optimal in different circumstances and markets. This
is an area of debate in the industry (Bony, 2010 and
Newman, 2011). The most important factors to reduce
BOS and installation costs are outlined below. These
factors together could result in BOS and installation cost
reductions similar to those for PV modules.
Electrical system improvements start with efforts to
improve the design of the inverter. Historically, inverter
costs have trended down with PV module costs.
Continued investment in R&D and improvements in
manufacturing processes should allow this trend to
continue. One interesting area of development and cost
reduction is the use of micro-inverters directly integrated
into the PV modules, which also reduce the installation
cost18. Also important for both inverters and microinverters are efforts to increase the lifetime from today’s
5-10 years which is significantly shorter than the lifetime
of the PV system life19. All of these efforts are projected
to halve inverter costs by 2020 (Mott MacDonald, 2011).
Structural system improvements include downsizing of
the structural components. This could yield up to 40%
of the BOS cost reductions. Efficient designs to minimise
the impact of wind loads could result in significant
reduction in the structural costs by allowing lighter,
cheaper structures (Bony, 2010).
Installation costs can be reduced with continued
experience, increased market scale and competition.
Process automation and high-level pre-assembly and
standardisation could reduce labour costs for installation
by up to 30% (Bony, 2010).
Standardisation and economies of scale will help reduce
component costs by high volume manufacturing of BOS
components. The potential cost reduction is large, as
most BOS component manufacturers today are small
companies. Large companies are pursuing important
economies of scale strategies to remain competitive.
(Bony, 2010).
17
An idea of the number of components involved can be taken from the example of a utility-scale PV system (>20 MW plant) currently under
construction. At this plant, 45 of 63 cost items for the BOS cost less than USD 0.02/W and these 45 components contributed only about USD 0.25/Wp
to the total BOS cost (US DOE, 2010).
18
The introduction these more intelligent PV modules with integrated micro-inverters and DC optimising devices has already begun and these so called
“smart AC modules” are expected to take a significant share of the residential market.
19
In the short-term, this could lead to higher inverter prices, but a lower LCOE for PV systems. However, it is likely that the incremental gains in inverter
life should be able to be achieved at modest cost and the overall downward trend in inverter costs will continue.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
31
CIGS cost structure, 2010E
1.6
1.4
0.04
0.04
1.2
0.14
0.12
2010 USD/Wp
Depreciation
0.12
0.11
Materials
1.0
Labour
0.8
0.83
utilities
0.91
0.6
overhead
0.4
0.2
0.21
0.14
0.0
CIGS - coevaporation
CIGS - sputter
CIGS manufacturing cost
1.4
600
1.35
1.31
2010 USD/Wp
400
1.0
0.90
300
0.82
0.8
0.69
0.63
0.6
200
Plant size (MW)
500
1.2
100
0.4
0
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
Sputtering fixed scale (100 MW)
Coevaporation - fixed scale
Coevaporation - increasing scale
Sputtering - increasing scale
2015E
Manufacturing plant size (MW)
figure 5.3: cigs Thin film pv module cosT breakdown and projecTions, 2010 To 2015
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
32 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
CdTe cost structure, 2011E
Module cost (2010 USD/Wp)
0.8
0.04
0.6
0.10
0.04
0.09
Depreciation
0.05
0.05
Materials
Labour
0.4
0.49
0.41
utilities
overhead
0.2
0.07
0.07
0.0
Fixed Scale (800 MW)
Incread scale (1500 MW)
Low-cost CdTe manufacturing cost, 2010E - 2015E
0.75
0.69
0.70
3500
0.67
0.65
0.65
0.64
3000
0.62
2500
0.60
0.60
0.59
0.56
2000
0.55
0.52
1500
Plant size (MW)
Module cost (2010 USD/Wp)
4000
0.73
0.49
0.50
1000
0.45
500
0.40
0
Fixed Scale (800 MW)
Increasing Scale
Manufacturing plant size (MW)
figure 5.4: cdTe Thin film pv module cosT breakdown and projecTions, 2010 To 2015
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
33
5.4. oVEraLL CoSt rEDuCtIoN PotENtIaLS
For PV SYStEMS
Overall PV system costs are projected to continue to
decline rapidly, although uncertainties exist at the
moment regarding the markets growth in the short term.
Short-term projections for the PV market are rapidly out
of date given the rapid pace of developments. Longer
term projections are likely to experience less volatility.
PV system costs for residential systems are projected to
decline from USD 4 200 to USD 6 000/kW in 2010 to
between USD 1 800 to USD 2 700/kW by 2020 and to
USD 1 500 to USD 1 800/kW by 2030 (Table 5.2). Utilityscale systems can expect to achieve similar reductions
from between USD 3 600 to USD 4 000/kW in 2010
to USD 1 800/kW in 2020 and as low as USD 1 060 to
USD 1 380/kW by 2030. These projections might be too
conservative in the medium- to long-term given that
they are based on a learning rate of 18%, which is less
than the historical rate of 22%. However, this uncertainty
is balanced by the possibility that the learning rate will
reduce slowly over time as the technology becomes
more mature.
Taking into account the near-term market growth, a
more nuanced cost reduction scenario is projected for
residential systems by 2015 (Figure 5.5). Large-scale
PV plants are projected to reduce system costs from
between USD 3 730 to USD 3 900/kW in 2011 to USD
2 200 to USD 2 640/kW by 2015 (Solarbuzz, 2011). For
c-Si PV systems, the total installed costs could decline
to between USD 2 270/kW and USD 2 770/kW by 2015,
while thin-film PV systems could decline to between USD
1 860/kW and USD 2 240/kW.
In addition to projections based on deployment and
learning rates, more aspirational goals (backed by
significant R&D and market transformation policies),
such as the Sunshot initiative in the United States,
exist. The Sunshot initiative aims to achieve a “$1/W PV
system” for utility-scale applications in 2020 and USD
1.5/W for residential systems (US DOE, 2012). This would
mean that PV systems could produce electricity at USD
0.05 to USD 0.07/kWh, making PV systems competitive
not only with the residential and commercial tariffs for
electricity, but also with the wholesale rate of electricity
without subsidies in virtually all regional electricity
markets in the United States (US DOE, 2012 and US
DOE, 2010). However, this does not take into account
transmission line development / strengthening and
electricity storage needs to meet demand when the sun
is not shining. The view of US DOE experts is that, at the
current rate of progress, the PV system cost by 2016 is
likely to reach USD 2.20/W for utility-sized systems, USD
2.50/W for commercial building-scale, and USD 3.50/W
and residential systems (US DOE, 2010). By 2020, utilityscale systems could decline in an “evolutionary” scenario
to between USD 1.71 and USD 1.91/W (Goodrich, 2012).
Residential systems might decline in this same scenario
to USD 2.29/W in 2020.
Table 5.3 insTalled pv sysTem cosT projecTions for residenTial and uTiliTy-scale sysTems, 2010 To 2030
2010
2015
2020
2030
Utility-scale
EPIA (c-Si)
3 600
1 800
1 060 - 1 380
IEA (c-Si)
4 000*
1 800
1 200
5 000 - 6 000*
2 250 - 2 700
1 500 - 1 800
Resdiential/Commercial
IEA
Solarbuzz (c-Si)
4 560
2 280 - 2 770
Solarbuzz (thin film)
4 160
1 860 - 2 240
Note: * data is for 2008.
Sources: EPIA, 2011a; Solarbuzz, 2011 and IEA, 2010.
34 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Average c-Si PV system price
5
2010 USD/Wp
4
3
2
2010
1
balance Energy
2011
2012
2013
Green World
9% pa decline
2014
14% pa decline
2015
Production Led
Average thin film PV system price
5
2010 USD/Wp
4
3
2
1
2010
balance Energy
2011
15% pa decline
2012
2013
Green World
2014
11% pa decline
2015
Production Led
figure 5.5: average crysTalline silicon and Thin-film pv sysTem price forecasTs for 2010 To 2015
Source: Solarbuzz, 2011.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
35
3.40
3.5
0.22
Power electronic
3.0
boS/Installation
2010 USD/Wp
2.5
1.48
2.0
2.20
0.18
1.5
0.97
Module
1.70
1.0
1.00
0.10
0.40
1.05
0.5
0.50
0.0
2010 (estimated)
2016
$1/Watt
figure 5.6: us doe cosT reducTion goals To achieve usd 1/w
Source: Lushetsky, 2010.
Crystalline
Silicon
30
Cdte
30
CIGS
29
amorphous Si
27
68
Multijunction
Concentrating
PV (using
multijunction)
0%
88
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
figure 5.7: TheoreTical solar cell maximum efficiency by pv Technology
Source: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
36 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Preliminary analysis shows that achieving the “$1/watt”
target for PV systems will require module costs of USD
0.50/W, BOS and installation cost of USD 0.40/W, and
USD 0.10/W for the power electronics (Figure 5.6) (US
DOE, 2012). The industry view is that these figures are
ambitious, but potentially achievable. Ideas on how to
achieve these targets are already being explored (US
DOE, 2010). Important improvements could be obtained
for PV modules, BOS and electronics if the PV efficiency
improves and the area required for a given generation
capacity decreases. As a rule of thumb, every 1% increase
in PV module efficiency reduces the BOS cost by
between USD 0.07 and USD 0.10/W (Surek, 2010).
5.5 PV MoDuLE EFFICIENCY IMProVEMENtS
The LCOE of PV systems can also be reduced by
improving the PV efficiency. While for physical reasons
PV modules will never reach the maximum theoretical
cell efficiency (Figure 5.7) nor the highest cell efficiency
obtained at laboratory level (often referred to as the
“champion” efficiency), the efficiency of the current
commercial modules still has significant room for
improvement. Analysis suggests that efficiency
improvements may occur for all PV commercial modules
(Lux Research, 2010). By 2015, the efficiency of the best
commercial monocrystalline Silicon modules could be
well above the current 20%, while the average efficiency
of multicrystalline c-Si modules could approach 17%
and commercial CIGS thin-film modules (with a current
efficiency of 10%-13% ) could rival today’s c-Si module
efficiency (Figure 5.8)
a-Si (1)
a-Si/µcSi
CIGS (sputter)
CIGS (coevap)
Cdte
Mono/Multi average
Multicrystalline silicon
Monocrystalline silicon
Super Monocrystalline
silicon
5%
8%
11%
14%
17%
20%
23%
Module efficiency
2009
2010
2012
2015
figure 5.8: currenT and projecTed pv module efficiency improvemenTs To 2015.
Sources: Mehta and Maycock, 2010.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
37
6. Levelised cost
of electricity from solar PV
P
V systems, like most renewable power generation technologies, are capital intensive, but have no fuel costs.
The three key drivers of the LCOE of PV systems are:
The capital and the installation costs of PV modules and BOS (USD/W);
The average annual electricity yield (kWh per kW), a function of the local solar radiation and the solar cells’
technical performance; and
The cost of finance for the PV system.
zz
zz
zz
The solar resource is the key determinant of the
output yield of a PV system per kW, in that it is the key
determinant of the average capacity factor achieved. The
tilt and orientation of the panels, as well as the presence
of any tracking system, also impacts on the yield. Avoiding
shading of the systems wherever possible is vital.
When the LCOE of a PV system is the same or less
than residential electricity tariff, then the PV electricity
is economically competitive for residential users.
Competitiveness has been already achieved in some
countries where the electricity retail price is particularly
high and solar irradiation and climate are particularly
favourable to the PV electricity generation (e.g. some
Southern European countries). With PV system costs
continuously declining, PV will become economically
attractive for residential and many commercial sector
consumers in many countries. Some projections suggest
that PV systems will be economic without support for
residential consumers in most countries by 2020 and
that the cost of PV electricity will continue declining
steadily toward a full competitiveness with conventional
electricity generation options.
However, much depends on whether the current rate
at which PV system costs decline continues and the
rate of deployment. Critically, in many countries which
experience afternoon demand peaks, the value of
PV electricity can substantially exceed the average
grid-based generation cost. Similarly, many of these
projections are based on continued increases in the
cost of electricity from conventional power generation
technologies.
38 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its PV
Technology Roadmap (IEA, 2010) projects that:
»»Over the current decade, continued
government support will enable the LCOE of
PV to decline sufficiently to compete with
retail electricity prices in a growing number
of countries.
»»In 2020, the LCOE of PV systems will range
between USD 0.105 and USD 0.21/kWh for
large, utility-scale plants, and between USD
0.16 and USD 0.315/kWh for residential PV
systems.
Under the IEA scenario, the LCOE of PV systems will
not reach grid parity in most countries until after
2020. However, given how fast PV costs have been
declining and how rapid PV markets are growing in
many countries, a more favourable PV scenario might be
possible. The European Photovoltaic Industry Association
(EPIA) estimates that the LCOE of PV could drop from
USD 0.22 to USD 0.27/kWh in 2010 to USD 0.06 to USD
0.10/kWh by 2020 (Figure 6.1) (EPIA and A.T. Kearney,
2011c), while analysis of the US market projects that
the LCOE of residential c-Si PV systems could decline
to between USD 0.10 and USD 0.18/kWh by 2015, and
to between USD 0.07 and USD 0.12/kWh by 2020. The
LCOE of utility-scale systems for both thin film and c-Si
could decline to between USD 0.06 and USD 0.10/kWh
by 2020 (Table 6.1). This would enable PV systems to
compete with residential tariffs in a wide range of regions
in the United States and to reach grid parity in high-cost
regions by 2015 (Figure 6.2).
300
LCOE (2010 USD/MWh)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2015
2020
EPIa (moderate)
EPIa (reference)
EPIa (advance)
2025
IEa (PCEG)
2030
IEa (roadmap)
figure 6.1: lcoe scenarios for pv sysTems, 2010 To 2030.
Sources: IEA, 2010; and EPIA and A.T. Kearney, 2011.
Table 6.1: c-si and Thin-film pv sysTem cosTs and lcoe, 2010 To 2020
Year
Crystalline Silicon PV
Average Price
(USD/Wp)
Crystalline Silicon
PV (US cents/kWh)
Thin-Film and Low-Price
Crystalline PV - Average
Price (USD/Wp)
Thin-Film and
Low-Price
Crystalline (US cents/
kWh)
2010
5.59
15 — 26
4.39
12 — 20
2015
3.85
10 — 18
3.02
8 — 14
2020
2.65
7 — 12
2.08
6 — 10
Source: Pernick and Wilder, 2008
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
39
12.9
San Francisco
Kauai
39.8
20.2
boston
baltimore
13.2
15.4
Delaware
the LCoE range of PV in 2020
7.5
Phoenix
12.7
Santa Monica
18.3
New Haven
16.0
Long Island
New York
19.5
11.7
reno
Las Vegas
9.5
16.3
San Diego
0
10
20
30
40
US cents/kWh
figure 6.2: reTail elecTriciTy prices (2007) and The projecTed lcoe of pv sysTems (2020)
Source: Pernick and Wilder, 2008.
6.1 LCoE EStIMatES For 2011 to 2015
This section analyses the current estimates of the LCOE
of utility-scale and residential PV systems for different
technologies and looks at the outlook for cost reductions
to 2015. The analysis is based on the data presented
in the earlier sections, and the main assumptions are
summarised in Tables 6.2 and 6.3.
The LCOE of current c-Si residential PV systems without
battery storage was estimated to be between USD 0.28
and USD 0.70/kWh in 2010. This is estimated to have
declined to between USD 0.25 and USD 0.65/kWh in
2011 with the reduction in c-Si module prices to as low
as USD 1.04 to USD 1.34/Wp by the end of 2011. By 2015
it is estimated that the LCOE of these systems could
decline to between USD 0.21 and USD 0.49/kWh. This
Table 6.2: insTalled cosT and efficiency assumpTions for residenTial pv sysTems, 2010 To 2015
2010
2011
2015
c-Si PV system
Installed cost (2010 USD/kW)
3 800 to 5 800
3 070 to 5 000
2 850 to 4 100
Efficiency (%)
14
14
17
Installed cost (2010 USD/kW)
5 000 to 6 000
4 000 to 5 000
3 800 to 4 300
Efficiency (%)
14
14
17
C-Si PV system with battery storage
40 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Table 6.3: insTalled cosT and efficiency assumpTions for uTiliTy-scale pv sysTems, 2011 To 2015
2010
2011
2015
Amorphous Si thin film
Installed cost (2010 USD/kW)
3 600 to 5 000
3 600 to 5 000
2 500 to 3 400
Efficiency (%)
8 to 9
Installed cost (2010 USD/kW)
3 600 to 5 000
2 640 to 4 500
2 500 to 3 500
Efficiency (%)
11 to 12
11 to 12
13 to 17
11 to 12
CdTe and CIGS
would make the LCOE of PV systems in areas with good
solar resource competitive for the residential end-user
compared to grid prices in many countries.20
When storage is included, the LCOE range of residential PV
systems is estimated to be between USD 0.36 and USD 0.71/
kWh, although this does not take into account the additional
value of the flexibility to supply PV electricity when the sun
is not shining. By 2015, the LCOE of these systems could
decline to between USD 0.31 and USD 0.52/kWh (Figure 6.3).
Utility-scale systems have lower average costs than
residential systems, but the lowest LCOE of utilityscale systems is not significantly lower than the most
competitive residential markets. The LCOE of current
utility-scale thin-film PV systems was estimated to be
between USD 0.26 and USD 0.59/kWh in 2010. The
significant drop in PV module prices in 2011 resulted in
this range declining to between USD 0.20 and USD 0.52/
kWh. By 2015 the LCOE of utility-scale systems could
reduce to between USD 0.19 and USD 0.42/kWh.
Assumes a 10% cost of capital
0.8
0.7
2010 USD/kWh
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
c-Si (2010) c-Si (2015)
c-Si with
storage
(2010)
c-Si with
storage
(2015)
amorphous amorphous
Si (2010) Si (2015)
residential
Cdte and
CIS/CIGS
(2010)
Cdte and
CIS/CIGS
(2015)
utility-scale
figure 6.3: illusTraTive lcoe of residenTial and uTiliTy-scale pv sysTems, 2010 and 2015
Note: Capital costs and efficiency are from Tables 6.2 and 6.3. DC to AC efficiency is assumed to be 77%. Load factors are assumed to be between 15%
and 25%, and O&M costs are fixed at USD 6.5/kW/year.
20
For instance, average residential prices in Europe are in the region of USD 0.23/kWh.
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
41
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44 Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
Acronyms
APEC
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
a-Si
Amorphous silicon
BOS
Balance of system
CAPEX
Capital expenditure
CdTe
Cadmium-Telluride
CIF
Cost, insurance and freight
CIGS
Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide
CIS
Copper-Indium-Selenide
CPV
Concentrating PV
c-Si
Crystalline silicon
DCF
Discounted cash flow
DNI
Direct normal irradiance
DSSC
Dye-sensitized solar cells
EU-27
The 27 European Union member countries
FOB
Free-on-board
GHG
Greenhouse gas
GW
Gigawatt
kW
Kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt hour
mc-Si
multi-crystalline silicon
MENA
Middle East and North Africa
MW
Megawatt
MWh
Megawatt hour
LCOE
Levelised cost of energy
O&M
Operating and maintenance
OPEX
Operation and maintenance expenditure
PV
Photovoltaics
R&D
Research and Development
sc-Si
Single crystalline silicon
USD
United States dollar
Wp
Watt peak
WACC
Weighted average cost of capital
Cost Analysis of Solar Photovoltaics
45
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