The MDG Report 2014 : Assessing progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development Goals (2014): analysis of the Common African Position on the Post

The MDG Report 2014 : Assessing progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development Goals (2014): analysis of the Common African Position on the Post

African Union African Development

Bank Group

Empowered lives.

Resilient nations.

Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium

Development Goals

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

African Union African Development

Bank Group

Empowered lives.

Resilient nations.

Assessing progress in Africa toward the Millennium

Development Goals

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Ordering information

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© United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, African Union, African Development Bank and United Nations Development

Programme, 2014

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

All rights reserved

First printing October 2014

ISBN: 978-99944-61-32-5 eISBN: 978-99944-62-32-2

Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication.

Designed and printed by the ECA Documents Publishing Unit. ISO 14001:2004 certified.

Table of Contents

Foreword ....................................................................................................................................... vii

Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................ix

A note on methodology ................................................................................................................xi

Acronyms and abbreviations ..................................................................................................... xii

Executive summary ..................................................................................................................... xiv

SECTION I: The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance .............................. 1

SECTION II: Tracking Progress .................................................................................................... 11

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger ................................................................................................................11

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education ....................................................................................................................32

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women .......................................................................................... 40

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality .....................................................................................................................................................56

MDG 5: Improve maternal health ...............................................................................................................................................61

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases .................................................................................................. 68

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability ........................................................................................................................75

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development ..............................................................................................85

SECTION III: Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015

Development Agenda ...............................................................................................................103

Pillar One: Structural economic transformation and inclusive growth ..............................................................104

Pillar Two: Science, technology, and innovation (STI) ...................................................................................................108

Key priority areas .................................................................................................................................................................................111

Pillar Three: People-Centred Development.........................................................................................................................112

Pillar Four: Environmental Sustainability, Natural Resources Management, and Disaster

Risk Management ...............................................................................................................................................................................114

Pillar Five: Peace and Security ......................................................................................................................................................117

Pillar Six: Financing and Partnership for Implementation of the Post-2015 Development Agenda ........119

SECTION IV: Conclusions and Policy Perspectives ...............................................................122

ANNEX 1: Selected Official Development Assistance Flows ...............................................126

ANNEX 2: Official List of MDG Indicators ...............................................................................129

References....................................................................................................................................132

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

iii

List of Figures

Figure 0.1: Real GDP Growth (percent) in Africa excluding North Africa ..................................................................... 2

Figure 0.2: Trends in GDP per capita levels (in $) for developing regions, 1980-2010 ........................................... 3

Figure 0.3: Illicit financial flows from Africa over the 1970-2009 period, $ billion ....................................................4

Figure 0.4: Trends in armed conflicts, 1990-2012 ........................................................................................................................5

Figure 0.5: Trend in GDP per capita levels across regions, 1990 (purchasing power parity) .............................7

Figure 0.6: Poverty trends in the United States (% below the national poverty line) ........................................... 8

Figure 1.1: Africa’s 20 fastest-growing economies compared with China, India and Brazil, average annual growth, 2008-2013 ..........................................................................................................................13

Figure 1.2: Populations living above and below $1.25/day in low income countries (LICs),

1981-2010 ..................................................................................................................................................................................14

Figure 1.3: Average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa excluding North Africa,

1990-2010 .................................................................................................................................................................................15

Figure 1.4: Global share of poverty among developing regions, 2010 (%) ...............................................................15

Figure 1.5: Progress in combating poverty in Africa (%).......................................................................................................18

Figure 1.6: Regional comparison of income inequality (Gini coefficient), 1990–2009 ........................................20

Figure 1.7: Correlations between growth and inequality in Africa ............................................................................... 22

Figure 1.8: Regional comparison of youth unemployment, 2007-13 ............................................................................24

Figure 1.9: Labour productivity: a comparison of East Asia, North Africa and Africa (excluding

North Africa), 2001-13 ........................................................................................................................................................26

Figure 1.10: Regional performance on the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2013 ............................................................27

Figure 1.11: Progress in reducing undernutrition, 1990-2013 (%) ......................................................................................29

Figure 1.12: Past and future trends in eradicating poverty in Africa ...............................................................................31

Figure 2.1: Gap to net enrolment target in primary education, 2011 ...........................................................................33

Figure 2.2: Net Primary school enrolment rates by region ................................................................................................ 34

Figure 2.3: Primary school completion rate, male and female (%) .................................................................................35

Figure 2.4:   Literacy rates of 15-24 years old, male and female, 2011 (%) ......................................................................37

Figure 3.1: Gender parity in primary education across regions, 1990 and 2011 .....................................................41

Figure 3.2: Progress on gender parity in primary school enrolment ............................................................................42

Figure 3.3: Summary of gender parity performance in primary school .....................................................................43

Figure 3.4: Progress on gender parity in secondary enrolment, 1990-2011 ..............................................................45

Figure 3.5: Gender parity improvement in secondary schools, various years ....................................................... 46

Figure 3.6: Percentage change in the Gender Parity Index at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels, 1990-2011 ..................................................................................................................................................47

Figure 3.7: Share of women in paid non-agriculture sector, 1990-2011 ......................................................................49

Figure 3.8: Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector ..............................................49

Figure 3.9: Female to male wage ratio in Africa ........................................................................................................................51

Figure 3.10: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments across regions of the world, various years ...........................................................................................................................................................................52

Figure 3.11: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments, various years, 1990 and 2013 ....................................................................................................................................................................................53

Figure 4.1: Under-five mortality rates by region .......................................................................................................................56

Figure 4.2: African countries’ progress in reducing the under-five mortality rate ................................................57

Figure 4.3: Expected vs. actual under-five mortality rate (U5MR) ...................................................................................59

Figure 4.4: Expected vs. actual infant mortality rates (IMRs) in Africa ..........................................................................59

Figure 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across African regions, various years ...........................................................................................................................................................................62

Figure 6.1: HIV incidence, prevalence and deaths in West, Central, East and Southern Africa,

1990-2012 .................................................................................................................................................................................69

iv

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Figure 6.2: Estimated malaria cases and death rate in Africa excluding North Africa, 2000-2012 ...............70

Figure 6.3: Average tuberculosis prevalence, death rate and incidence for Africa, selected years,

1990-2011 ..................................................................................................................................................................................72

Figure 6.4: Countries that have progressed in reducing TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between 1990 and 2011 (%) .........................................................................................................................................73

Figure 6.5: Countries that have regressed in TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between

1990 and 2011 (%)  ..............................................................................................................................................................74

Figure7.1: Carbon dioxide emissions (CO

2

) (metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) (CDIAC), 1990 and

2010 .............................................................................................................................................................................................76

Figure 7.2: Drinking water coverage by developing regions, 1990–2012 (%) .........................................................79

Figure 7.3: Sanitation coverage trends by region, 1990-2012(%) .....................................................................................81

Figure 7.4: Regions that increased access to improved sanitation (% of the population), 2000-2012 ......81

Figure 8.1: Net ODA by DAC donors as a percentage of their GNI ............................................................................... 88

Figure 8.2: ODA to North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million) ..................................................................................................89

Figure 8.3: ODA to Africa excluding North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million) ............................................................89

Figure 8.4: Average disbursements of ODA to Africa (constant 2012 $ million) .................................................... 90

Figure 8.5: Percentage growth in real disbursements of ODA to Africa .................................................................... 90

Figure 8.6: ODA by sector (Current prices $ million) ...............................................................................................................91

Figure 8.7: ODA received in landlocked developing countries (as a percentage of GNI) .................................91

Figure 8.8: ODA received in Small Island Developing States (as a percentage of GNI) ......................................92

Figure 8.9: Developed country imports from developing countries, admitted duty free, 2011 (%) ......... 94

Figure 8.10: Agriculture support estimate for OECD countries and the European Union (as a percentage of their GDP) ................................................................................................................................................95

Figure 8.11: IMF bailout during the sub-prime and Eurozone crises ...............................................................................97

Figure 8.12: Mobile phone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants ........................................................................................... 98

Figure 8.13: Mobile phone subscriptions and fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants: average for all African nations, 1990–2012 .............................................................................................................................. 99

Figure 8.14: Internet users per 100 inhabitants .........................................................................................................................100

Figure 9.1: Shares of value added for the agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors

(averages for Africa excluding South Africa and North Africa countries)........................................105

Figure 9.2: Employment share by sector, Africa (excluding North Africa) ...............................................................106

List of Tables

Table 0.1: Top five destinations by share of total illicit financial flows for selected African countries and sectors where there are significant illicit financial flows (trade mispricing only), 2008 ..... 5

Table 0.2: Comparison of the rate-of-change based methodology and the current approach used by the United Nations ............................................................................................................................................9

Table 1.1: Progress in reducing hunger (Global Hunger Index), 1990–2013 ...........................................................27

Table 3.1: Level of improvement on primary school parity, 1990-2011 .................................................................... 44

Table 3.2: Employment shares by sector and gender, selected years, 2000-12 ...................................................50

Table 4.1: Status of progress in under-five-mortality rates in African countries, 2012 ......................................58

Table 4.2: Neonatal mortality rate and neonatal deaths as a share of under-five deaths, 1990 and 2012 ................................................................................................................................................................................... 60

Table 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across regions, selected years,

1990-2013 .................................................................................................................................................................................61

Table 5.2: Births attended by skilled health personnel in Africa (%) ............................................................................63

Table 5.3: Percentage of married women aged 15-49 using modern methods and annual percentage change by region, 2008 and 2012 ................................................................................................. 66

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

v

Table 5.4: Women whose need for modern methods of contraceptives is not met, by region,

2008 and 2012 (%) .............................................................................................................................................................. 66

Table 6.1: Malaria prevalence and death rates across regions, 2000-2012 ...............................................................70

Table 7.1: Protected terrestrial and marine areas to total territorial area (%) ..........................................................78

Table 7.2: Percentage of the population with access to safe drinking water, rural and urban,

1990 and 2012 ........................................................................................................................................................................79

Table 7.3: Percentage of the population using improved sanitation facilities, urban and rural,

1990 and 2012 ........................................................................................................................................................................82

Table 8.1: Status of highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) Initiative in Africa, as of September 2013 .........95

Table 8.2: Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income) ...................................... 96

Table 9.1: Growth elasticity of poverty and inequality elasticity of poverty for selected regions .........104

Table 10.1 Net ODA disbursements to developing nations ........................................................................................... 126

Table 10.2 Net Disbursements of ODA to Africa, by subregion, selected years .................................................. 127

Table 10.3 ODA by sector as a percentage of total allocation ....................................................................................... 128

List of Boxes

Box 1.1: Africa’s decade of rapid economic growth can be sustained ..................................................................16

Box 1.2: Social safety nets: important poverty reduction instruments in African countries.....................19

Box 1.3: African youth employment issues and challenges ........................................................................................ 25

Box 3.1: Numbers matter, but it is the quality of women’s representation in Parliament that

Box 5.1: is critical .................................................................................................................................................................................... 54

Accelerating progress towards the achievement of the health and related MDGs in

Nigeria through the community-based Conditional Grants Scheme ................................................ 64

Box 5.2: Transforming lives: Expanding midwifery capacity in South Sudan and deployment of communication technology in health service delivery in Ondo State (Nigeria) .....................65

Box 5.3: Accelerating progress on maternal health in Niger through ‘School for Husbands’

Box 6.1 on reproductive health ....................................................................................................................................................67

Malaria control and elimination efforts in Swaziland .....................................................................................71

Box 7.1: Progress in Access to Sanitation in Ethiopia ....................................................................................................... 84

Box 8.1: Attracting alternative sources of funds: lessons learned from Rwanda ............................................93

vi

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Foreword

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have been a catalyst for action by governments, civil society and the private sector to advance development. The effects have been direct, including mobilizing aid for social development, and indirect, through advocacy and global monitoring, particularly of key indicators of progress in education, health and gender equality.

African Member States have made remarkable progress towards achieving the MDGs despite difficult initial conditions. Indeed, previous MDG

Progress Reports for Africa have shown that when effort and initial conditions are factored in, African countries are among the top achievers of the

MDGs. A study of countries accelerating the most rapidly towards the MDGs found that eight of the world’s top ten best performers are in Africa.

Further, progress was more rapid in least-developed countries (LDCs) than in non-LDCs despite the significant investments in infrastructure and human capital that countries at very low levels of development require to achieve the MDGs. substantial component of the fiscal envelope of most low-income countries. Nevertheless, there is a growing recognition that with the prevailing global uncertainties and fiscal consolidation in many developed countries, ODA should at best be seen as a complement and not a substitute for domestic resources, investment and trade.

These observations are pertinent in the context of the decline in ODA to Southern, East, Central and West Africa as a group during the 2011–12 period. ODA should also be dedicated to catalytic initiatives, such as strengthening the capacity of low-income countries to mobilize more domestic resources.

Africa’s growth acceleration offers the potential of offsetting, at least in part, the revenue shortfalls that some countries may experience as a result of declines in ODA. But even higher rates of growth and revenue can be achieved when illicit financial flows are curbed; public resources are used prudently; policies and institutions improve by applying evidence of what works; and strategic investments fill gaps, for example, by enhancing the productive capacities of the continent’s youthful population.

The development context and landscape in many

African countries is changing. With the imminent

MDG target date of 2015, it is important for Member States to build and sustain the momentum achieved to date and ensure that their development priorities and aspirations find credible expression in the post-2015 Development

Agenda/Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Due to the rapid growth experienced by several

African countries in the past decade, the continent can now have greater fiscal autonomy in charting its own development path based on the different contexts of individual countries and the shared aspirations of the African people. Indeed, the discourse is shifting to a narrative that emphasizes ownership underpinned by robust domestic resource mobilization and adequate policy space.

Understandably, Official Development Assistance (ODA) will remain an important feature of the development financing landscape and a

Africa is now viewed as a continent on the rise.

Its visible and concrete contributions to the post-2015 Development Agenda/Sustainable

Development Goals are a sign of its increasingly effective efforts to influence global debate. As early as 2011, the continent initiated consultations to articulate its priorities for the post-2015 development framework. It is currently the only developing region with a Common Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda. The Common African Position (CAP) has received the seal of approval of the Continent’s leaders and is recognized as Africa’s official voice on the post-

2015 Development Agenda. The CAP focuses on six pillars: (i) structural economic transformation and inclusive growth; (ii) science, technology and innovation; (iii) people-centred development; (iv) environmental sustainability, natural resources

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

vii

management, and disaster risk management; (v) peace and security; and (vi) finance and partnerships. The creation of the High Level Committee of ten Heads of States has given the Common

Position powerful political and institutional backing, elevating it from a mere compilation of the continent’s priorities to a strategic development framework.

the post-2015 Development Agenda. In this way, the report aims to strengthen and broaden the alliances behind the CAP. We believe that the priorities in the CAP are consistent with the aspirations of developed and other developing countries, and seek to ensure that the new global development agenda/Sustainable Development

Goals adequately reflects Africa’s development priorities.

This year’s report discusses the logic and underlying factors that informed African priorities for

Nkosazana Clarice Dlamini Zuma

Chairperson,

African Union

Commission

Carlos Lopes

United Nations Under-

Secretary-General and

Executive Secretary of ECA

Donald Kaberuka

President,

African Development

Bank Group

Helen Clark

Administrator,

United Nations

Development

Programme

viii

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Acknowledgements

Assessing Progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development Goals is a joint report of the

African Union Commission (AUC), United Nations

Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), African

Development Bank (AfDB) and the United Nations

Development Programme-Regional Bureau for

Africa (UNDP-RBA).

It was prepared by a core team led by Dr. Bartholomew Armah, Chief of the Renewal of Planning section in the Macroeconomic Policy Division at

ECA; Dossina Yeo, Acting Head of Statistics Division, in the Economic Affairs Department at the

AUC; Bilal Nejmudin Kedir, Principal Health Economist in the Human Development Department at AfDB; and Ayodele Odusola, MDG Advisor in the Strategic Advisory Unit, UNDP-RBA. The team also included Selamawit Mussie (AUC), Mama

Keita (ECA), Aissatou Gueye (ECA), Valerio Bosco

(ECA), Judith Ameso (ECA), Zivanemoyo Chinzara

(ECA), Deniz Kellecioglu (ECA), Mouhamed Gueye

(AfDB), Sallem Berhane (UNDP-RBA), Etienne de

Souza (UNDP-RBA), Osten Chulu (UNDP-RBA),

Eunice Kamwendo (UNDP-RBA), Elvis Mtonga

(UNDP-RBA) and David Luke (UNDP-RBA).

The work was carried out under the supervision of

Dr. René N’guettia Kouassi, Director of Economic

Affairs Department (AUC); Dr. Adam B. Elhiraika,

Director of Macro-Policy Division (ECA); Dr. Agnes

Soucat, Director of Human Development Department (AfDB); and Pedro Conceicao, Chief Economist, UNDP-RBA.

The report was prepared under the general direction of Dr. Anthony Mothae Maruping, Commissioner for Economic Affairs (AUC); Abdalla Hamdok, Deputy Executive Secretary (ECA); Dr. Mthuli

Ncube, Chief Economist and Vice President (AfDB); and Abdoulaye MarDieye, Assistant Administrator and Director of UNDP-RBA. The AUC Chairperson

Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the United Nations

Under-Secretary-General and ECA Executive Secretary Dr. Carlos Lopes, AfDB President Dr. Donald

Kaberuka, and UNDP Administrator Helen Clark provided general guidance.

An Expert Group Meeting to review and validate the draft of this report, Assessing Progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development

Goals, was held in Abuja, Nigeria, on 1-2 April

2014. The country representatives at the meeting were: Djoghlaf Ahmed and Nasreddine Rimouche

(Algeria), Andre Ventura (Angola), Alastaire Alinsato (Benin), Masego Joyce Massie (Botswana),

Sawadogo Yacouba (Burkina Faso), Balthazar Fengure (Burundi), Zra Issa (Cameroon), Zami Moise

(Central African Republic), Walngar SadjinanDeba

(Chad), Alfeine SitiSoifiat (Comoros), Eyemandoko

Alain (Congo), Diaby Lancine (Côte  d’Ivoire),

Hasana Ahmed Abdallah (Djibouti), Francis Loka

(Democratic Republic of the Congo), Borupu

Ekoki Maximo (Equatorial Guinea), Abraham Kidame Mekonnen (Eritrea), Azeb Lemma Dulla (Ethiopia), Ibouili Maganga Joseph Paul (Gabon), Adjei-

Fosu Kwaku (Ghana), Jose Augusto Braima Balde

(Guinea Bissau),Benson Musila Kimani (Kenya),

J.  Wellington Barbechue (Liberia), Salah A.A.

Abourgigha (Libya), Onipatsa Helinoro Tianamahefa (Madagascar), Robert Chitembeya Msuku

(Malawi), Moriba Doumbia (Mali), Mohamed

Abderrahmane Moine Teyeb (Mauritania), Deepak

Prabhakar Gokulsing (Mauritius), Alfredo Salvador Mutombene (Mozambique), Mary-Tuyeni

Hangula (Namibia), SeydouYaye (Niger), Dr. Precious Gbeneol, Hami Abayelo, Dr. Seifa F. Brisibe,

Paul Gbeneol, Felix Okonkwo, Daniel M. Mafulnl and Yahaya Hamza (Nigeria), Mushabe Richard

(Rwanda),Terry Remy Rose (Seychelles),Kawusu

Kebbay (Sierra Leone), John Maciek Acuoth Acol

(South Sudan), Mndzebele Lungile Sithembile

(Swaziland), Waniko Kokou (Togo), Donald Mbuga

(Uganda), and Winza Mwauluka (Zambia) and

Godfrey Mkwakwami (Zimbabwe).

In March 2014, an abridged version of this report was presented at the Seventh Joint AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance, and the

ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance,

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

ix

Planning and Economic Development, in Abuja,

Nigeria. This final version has been enriched by their comments.

The report benefitted from editorial, translation, graphical design, printing, media and communications, and secretarial support from Teshome

Yohannes, Charles Ndungu, Ferdos Issa, Mercy

Wambui, John Kaninda, Azeb Moguesse, Jonas

Mantey, Barbara Hall, Adla Kosseim, Raymond

Toye, Nicolas Douillet, Coulin Marianne and Prime

Production Ltd

x

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

A note on methodology

This year’s Assessing Progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development Goals: Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015

Development Agenda uses the latest updated and harmonized data from United Nations Statistics Division, the official data repository for assessing progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It also uses data from United

Nations agencies, the World Bank and statistical databases of the Organization for Economic

Co-operation and Development (OECD). The main reason for using international sources is that they collect and provide accurate and comparable data on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) indicators across Africa. The irregularity of surveys and censuses, ages, definitions and methods of production of the indicators might explain the lag between the reporting year and the data years.

United Nations agencies regularly compile data from countries using standardized questionnaires or other agreed on mechanisms. Submitted questionnaires are then validated through a peer review process based on the data collection and processing methods. The agencies provide estimates, update data and fill in data gaps by estimating missing values, and make adjustments (if needed) to ensure cross-country comparability.

OECD also collects data to track aid flows, based on a standard methodology and agreed on definitions to ensure comparability of data among donors and recipients. These United Nations agencies and OECD provide harmonized and comparable sources of data for producing MDG reports at the continent level. However, this report uses some countries’ national data and information on some MDGs to enrich its analysis.

Over the last few years, African countries have taken commendable steps, with the support of international organizations, to obtain data for tracking MDG progress. The African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) have developed programmes that respond to data challenges and that improve

African countries’ statistical capacity. They include: the Africa Symposium for Statistics Development, an advocacy framework for censuses; the African

Charter on Statistics, a framework for coordinating statistics activities in the continent; the Strategy for the Harmonization of statistics in Africa, which provides guidance on harmonizing statistics; and a new initiative on civil registration and vital statistics. Since 2009, the three institutions have set up a joint mechanism for continental data collection and validation in order to produce an Africa statistical yearbook. These initiatives will scale up the availability of data for tracking future MDG progress.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

xi

Acronyms and abbreviations

CO

2

CPR

CSO

DAC

DHS

DRC

ECA

ERA

EU

FAO

FTA

GDP

GHI

GNI

HIPC

HIV

ICT

IFF

ILO

IMF

IMO

IMR

ITN

IUCN

LDC

LIC

MDG

MDR-TB

MIC

ACP

ACT

AfDB

AfT

AIDS

AOSTI

APP

ART

ASTII

AU

AUC

CAP

CARMMA

CCT

CDIAC

CFTA

xii

African, Caribbean and Pacific

Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies

African Development Bank

Aid for Trade

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome

African Observatory of Science Technology and Innovation

Africa Progress Panel

Antiretroviral Therapy

African Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators

African Union

African Union Commission

Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Campaign for Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa

Conditional Cash Transfer

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

Continental Free Trade Area

Carbon dioxide

Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

Civil Society Organization

Development Assistance Committee

Demographic and Health Survey

Democratic Republic of the Congo

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

Economic Report on Africa

European Union

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations

Free Trade Agreement

Gross domestic product

Global Hunger Index

Gross National Income

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries

Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Information and Communications Technology

Illicit Financial Flows

International Labour Organization

International Monetary Fund

International Maritime Organization

Infant Mortality Rate

Insecticide-treated Net

International Union for Conservation of Nature

Least Developed Country

Low-income Country

Millennium Development Goal

Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis

Middle-income Country

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MMR

MNCH

MRDI

NBS

NEPAD

ODA

ODS

Maternal Mortality Ratio

Maternal Newborn and Child Health

Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

National Bureau of Statistics

New Partnership for Africa’s Development

Official Development Assistance

Ozone-depleting substances

OECD

OSSAP

PPP

RECs

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President (on the MDGs)

Purchasing Power Parity

Regional Economic Communities

R&D

SIDS

Research and Development

Small Island and Developing States

STI Science, Technology and Innovation

TB Tuberculosis

U5MR

UNAIDS

UNDESA

UNDP

Under-five Mortality Rate

Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

United Nations Development Programme

UNDP–RBA United Nations Development Programme–Regional Bureau for Africa

UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme

UNESCO

UNICEF

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

United Nations Children’s Fund

UNIFEM

UNSD

WHO

WIPO

WTO

United Nations Development Fund for Women

United Nations Statistics Division

World Health Organization

World Intellectual Property Organization

World Trade Organization

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

xiii

Executive summary

Accelerated progress in Africa towards the Millennium

Development Goals despite daunting initial conditions

Performance on the Millennium Development

Goals (MDGs) has varied by country and region; some regions are closer to meeting the targets, while others such as Africa are not as close. But

Africa has accelerated progress on the MDGs despite unfavourable initial conditions, being the region with the lowest starting point. Thirty-four out of 54 countries that are classified as Least

Developed Countries (LDCs) are in the African region, representing a disproportionate share of low-income countries (LICs). It is therefore inappropriate to assess the continent’s performance on the same basis as the more advanced regions; when assessments take into account the initial conditions of the continent, it emerges that the pace of progress on the MDGs in Africa has accelerated since 2003. Indeed, an assessment of performance based on effort reveals that eight of the top ten best performers (i.e. those experiencing the most rapid acceleration) are in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa. Burkina Faso ranked the highest in MDG acceleration. Furthermore, progress was more rapid in LDCs than in non-LDCs.

Poverty rates declining at an accelerated rate

Africa’s poverty rates have continued to decline, despite the adverse effects of the recent food, fuel, financial and Eurozone crises. The proportion of people living on less than US$1.25 a day, in

Southern, East, Central and West Africa as a group decreased from 56.5 percent in 1990 to 48.5 percent in 2010. However, this figure is approximately

20.25 percentage points off the 2015 target compared to 4.1 for South Asia. On annual average, there has been an acceleration in the rate of poverty reduction; poverty declined faster over the

2005-08 period than over 1990-2005.

xiv

The positive trend in poverty reduction is attributable to rapid growth rates in the last decade, an improved governance environment and the implementation of social protection programmes in some countries. The impact of growth on poverty in Africa is likely to improve if the continent pursues a policy of adding value to its agricultural commodities and natural resources, thereby creating a value chain of livelihoods and decent employment opportunities for the majority of its citizens.

Job creation: not growing fast enough to absorb youth

In spite of resounding progress on employment generation, the unemployment rate still remains high in Africa. It is markedly high in North Africa, especially among youth. Approximately 27.2 percent of young people in the labour force were without work in 2013 compared to 26.6 percent in 2012.

Working poverty: declining but vulnerable employment remains very high

The proportion of workers earning less than $1.25 a day declined in Africa, with the greatest gains occurring in North Africa. In Southern, East, Central and West Africa, the working poor as a proportion of total workers declined from 55.8 to 39.2 percent during the 2000-2013 period. Working poverty declined from 6.9 to around 3.0 percent in

North Africa during the same period. Subregional disparities reflect the high level of informality and vulnerable jobs in Southern, East, Central and

West Africa compared to North Africa. Indeed, the proportion of workers in vulnerable employment in North Africa was 35 percent in 2013 compared to 77.6 percent for Southern, East, Central and

West Africa as a group. Women are more likely to be engaged in vulnerable jobs. In 2013, around

85 percent of women versus 70.5 percent of men were employed in vulnerable jobs in Southern,

East, Central and West Africa as a group.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Executive summary

Labour productivity: positive but growing at a declining rate

Labour productivity growth declined in Africa, mirroring a global trend; between 2012 and 2013, it fell from 1.9 to 1.6 percent in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa as a group, and from 3.3 to 0.28 percent in North Africa.

Income inequality declining in

Africa, but the level remains high

The level of income inequality in Africa is second only to Latin America. However, in the former, the inequality landscape is changing rapidly. Between the periods of 1990-1999 and 2000-2009, Africa experienced the highest decline in income inequality (4.3 percent) followed by Asia (3.1 percent).

In contrast, inequality worsened in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The high level of inequality in Africa, however, masks subregional variations. Southern Africa (Gini index, 48.5) and

Central Africa (Gini index, 45.0) are the most unequal, and North Africa (Gini index, 37.4) and East

Africa (Gini index, 41.0) remain the least unequal.

Inequality constitutes an impediment to the continent’s efforts to reduce poverty. Addressing this challenge is therefore critical to achieving MDG 1.

Droughts and unfavourable climate hampering efforts to fight hunger in Africa

Climate change (manifested by drought, especially in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, and erosion in Swaziland) and conflicts (e.g. in the

Central African Republic and Côte d’Ivoire) have undermined efforts to reduce hunger in Africa.

Progress is mixed among African countries, with some countries making remarkable improvements; however, overall, the continent is off-track with respect to the hunger target.

Malnourishment remains a recurring challenge

Progress in halving the proportion of undernourished people has been slow in all developing regions with an average reduction of 36.5 percent for all developing regions and 22.3 percent for

Africa between 1990 and 2013. Contributing to this trend are social inequality and the low nutritional, educational and social status of women.

Furthermore, in recent years, recurrent crises in the Sahel, arising from a combination of sporadic rainfall, locust infestation, crop shortages, and high and volatile food prices are constraints to food and nutrition security.

Halving prevalence of underweight children under five years of age is still a challenge

Africa still lags behind most other developing regions in achieving the target on underweight children. Africa excluding North Africa managed to reduce the prevalence of underweight children under five years of age by only 14.3 percent between 1990 and 2012. Performance at the country level shows wide disparities with some countries having achieved the target, while many others made only marginal progress. Wide disparities also exist among children from rich and poor households, as well as between those from rural and urban areas.

Most countries on track to meet the primary enrolment target: low completion and low quality of education remain a challenge

The continent is on track to meet the primary school enrolment target. Twenty-five countries have achieved net enrolment ratios of 80 percent or above, and only 11 have enrolment rates below 75 percent. These achievements have been made possible through measures that strengthen educational infrastructure, increase participation and improve retention (e.g. school feeding programmes, cash transfers). These efforts have translated into a rapid increase in primary enrolment in recent years in a number of countries. For instance, primary enrolment increased by about 40 percentage points (from

25.3 to 64.5 percent) in Burkina Faso and in Niger

(from 24.3 to 65.7 percent) during the 1991-2012 period. Notwithstanding progress on enrolment, completions rates are relatively low: 28 percent of countries for which data are available have a completion rate below 60 percent. Almost 22 percent of the region’s primary age children are out of school, and a third of primary students drop out without acquiring the minimum basic competencies in reading and mathematics. The

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

xv

Executive summary quality and the skills content of the educational system also calls for urgent attention.

Strong gender parity in primary education and women’s representation in parliament increasing

The ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary school continues to improve in many African countries.

Of the 49 African countries with data, 18 have achieved gender parity at the primary level of education. Parity figures, however, deteriorate at the secondary and tertiary levels. Thus, the transition of girls and boys between different levels of education requires urgent attention. infant mortality rates (IMRs) in Africa; it fell from 90 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 54 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2014, a 39 percent decline on average for the continent as a whole (UNICEF,

2013). Globally, progress on reducing neonatal deaths (i.e. children who die within four weeks of birth) has been much slower than infant and under-five mortality. Neonatal deaths are particularly high in the Southern, Central, East and West

Africa subregions, which account for 38 percent of global neonatal deaths. Substantial improvement is needed in immunization coverage (Lancet,

2014a).

Over the 1990-2011 period, women’s share of non-agricultural employment rose modestly from 35.3 to 39.6 percent. This performance, however, lags behind other developing regions.

For instance, it is around 20.0 percentage points below East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Africa is making more rapid progress in increasing the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament than are other regions. In 2012, only

Latin America and developed regions surpassed its achievement. Between 2005 and 2012, Southern Asia and Africa (excluding North Africa) made the fastest progress. Limited economic opportunities for women and barriers to political participation continue to impede progress in meeting this target.

Good progress on maternal mortality, but insufficient to meet the target

Significant progress has been made in reducing maternal mortality in Africa. Africa has reduced its maternal mortality ratio from 870 deaths per

100,000 live births in 1990 to 460 in 2013, a 47 percent reduction between 1990 and 2013 and

2.7 percent average annual percentage change between 1990 and 2013. Despite these achievements, meeting MDG 5 remains unlikely. Limited access to contraceptives, skilled birth attendants and antenatal care as well as high adolescent birth rates have contributed to the high maternal mortality ratio (MMRs) in Africa. Many countries are tackling this challenge. For instance, Ethiopia’s community health extension programme has succeeded in bringing services closer to the people, particularly rural dwellers who historically have had difficulty in accessing health services.

Good progress in reducing child mortality, but more effort needed on immunization coverage

Notwithstanding steep declines in child mortality,

Africa is off-track on this target, which reflects the dire initial health conditions on the continent.

Continent-wide, the under-five mortality rate

(U5MR) reduced from 177 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 98 deaths in 2012. This translates to 45 percent reduction against the target of the two-thirds reduction. The annual rate of progress has improved substantially since 2000: it rose from

1.4 percent (1990-2000) to 3.8 percent (2000-

2012). There has also been progress in reducing

A reversal in the rising trend in HIV and AIDS

The rising incidence and prevalence of HIV/AIDS among adults has been reversed in Africa due to strong political will, focused interventions and increased access to antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Between 2010 and 2011, the proportion of the population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs increased from 48 to 56 percent in Southern, East, Central and West

Africa. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate declined from

0.85 to 0.32 over the 1995–2012 period, while the prevalence rate fell from 5.8 to 4.7 percent during the 2000–2012 period. However, the number of

xvi

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Executive summary people living with HIV/AIDS in Southern East, Central and West Africa is 25 million, that is, four times larger than it was in 1990 at 5.7 million.

Malaria incidence, prevalence and deaths on the decline

Expanded malaria treatment regimens in Africa have helped to reduce the incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with malaria. Incidence and death rates fell by an average of 31 percent and

49 percent, respectively, in Southern, East, Central and West Africa as a group. The use of preventive therapies, vector control interventions, diagnostic testing, artemisinin-based combination therapies

(ACTs) and strong malaria surveillance have been critical to success. These gains notwithstanding,

Africa’s malaria burden is high, and children under five years of age suffer disproportionately: in

2012 alone, 90 percent of the estimated 627,000 malaria deaths worldwide occurred in Southern,

East, Central and West Africa, and 77 percent were among children below the age of five.

High HIV/AIDS prevalence rates hampering tuberculosis intervention efforts

Progress in reducing TB incidence and prevalence rates has been slow due to high HIV/AIDS prevalence rates. Nevertheless TB-related deaths are on the decline, falling by 23 percent between 1990 and 2011. On the other hand, lack of access to effective treatment has resulted in an increase in the number of multidrug-resistant TB cases.

Environmental degradation, a mixed story

Carbon dioxide emissions in Africa are relatively low by global standards and declining. However, high levels of emissions in a few countries raise concerns about future trends. In contrast to

CO

2

emissions, the use of ODS has consistently declined between 2000 and 2011. More than half of the African countries achieved a reduction of more than 50 percent.

at least 10 percent of the protected territorial and marine areas, compared to 19 countries in 1990.

Access to safe drinking water improving, but sanitation still a challenge

By 2012, 69 percent of the African population used an improved drinking water source. Performance on the sanitation indicator is poor. In 2012, 45 percent of the population in Southern, East, Central and West Africa used either shared or unimproved sanitation facilities, and 25 percent practised open defecation. Overall, most of the countries registered improvements to varying degrees in access to improved sanitation facilities during the

1990-2011 period. Only Djibouti, Nigeria, Sudan and Togo registered regressions.

DAC ODA to Africa on the decline

Official Development Assistance (ODA) from the

Development Assistance Committee countries to Africa declined by 5 percent between 2011 and 2012, confirming predictions that the global economic crisis would eventually impact on aid to Africa. Landlocked and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have also been impacted by the decline. Between 2010 and 2011, four of the six

African SIDS experienced reductions in ODA as a percentage of their gross national income (GNI) of over 25 percent between 2011 and 2012. In the absence of alternative financing, the overall decline in the volume of ODA is detrimental to both social and economic development in Africa, especially for LICs.

Improving access to developed countries markets

Overall, the average tariffs charged by developed nations on primary production are now significantly lower than in the early 2000s, and agricultural subsidies in Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have been declining since 2000, with notable reductions of 50 percent in Turkey and Mexico, and 40 percent in Switzerland, Iceland and the

European Union (between 2000 and 2011).

Most African countries registered improvements in the proportion of protected terrestrial and marine areas in the 1990-2012 period. By 2012, a total of 32 countries had reached the target of

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

xvii

Executive summary

Rising deficits: a possible threat to debt sustainability

The total external debt stock in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa rose by an annual average of 11 percent during the 2006-2011 period.

Fourteen of the 33 African heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) are facing moderate risk of debt distress, while seven are at high risk of debt distress. African countries must pre-empt debt sustainability challenges.

Mobile telephony: creating financial inclusion and economic opportunities

There has been a spectacular growth in mobile subscriptions in Africa by more than 2,500 percent between 2000 and 2012. As of 2012, 74 out of every 100 inhabitants on the continent had a mobile phone. Gabon has been an exceptional performer, with a 187 percent penetration rate as of 2012. Innovations in the use of mobile telephones (e.g. M-Pesa in Kenya, EcoCash in

Zimbabwe, and Tigo Pesa in the United Republic of Tanzania) have facilitated financial inclusion by promoting savings and financial transactions among the unbanked. Mobile money transfers, mobile agricultural insurance and mobile agricultural extension services are a few examples of the economic benefits of mobile phones.

High costs, a barrier to Internet penetration

High Internet costs are impeding access in Africa.

As of 2012, Africa’s average penetration stood at approximately 14 per 100 inhabitants. High costs remain the main barrier to improved Internet use in Africa. It is estimated that Africa, particularly

East, Central and West Africa, have the highest

Internet prices in the world.

The Common African Position: a unified voice on the post-2015

Development Agenda

In January 2014, Heads of State and Government of the African Union adopted the Common African

Position (CAP) to inform Africa’s negotiations on the post-2015 Development Agenda. The CAP’s overarching goal is to eradicate poverty by making growth inclusive and people-centred, enhancing Africans productive capacities to sustainably manage and leverage their natural resources in an environment of peace and security. The CAP underlines the African development priorities that should underpin the global development agenda.

To this end, the CAP is anchored by the following six pillars: Structural Economic Transformation and Inclusive Growth; Science, Technology and

Innovation; People-centred Development; Environmental Sustainability, Natural Resource Management and Disaster Risk Management; Peace and Security; and Finance and Partnerships.

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

SECTION I

The Role of Initial Conditions in

Africa’s MDG Performance

Introduction

Africa’s progress towards achieving the MDGs is gaining momentum, and the continent continues to make steady progress on most of the goals including primary school enrolment, gender parity in primary school enrolment, the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament, and reversing HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence and death rates. Indeed, in some cases, Africa’s performance exceeds some regions such as South-

East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and

Western Asia. This is both remarkable and commendable given the starting point of most African countries. Notwithstanding these achievements, the continent is considered off-track on most of the MDGs targets. This view is based on an assessment methodology that only tracks the level of performance on an indicator in relation to the

2015 target for that indicator. A typical illustration of this way is as follows: the proportion of people living on less than US$1.25 a day in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa as a group decreased from

56.5 percent in 1990 to 48.5 percent in 2010. As a result, the region is approximately 20.25 percentage points off the 2015 target compared to 4.1 for

South Asia; hence, the target will not likely be met should current trends continue. as important as those in, for instance, East Asia, achieving MDG 1 in East Asia means little to the poor person in Africa if his or her welfare remains unchanged or deteriorates.

Another strand of criticism focuses on the failure to account for effort in MDG performance. By focusing exclusively on the gap between current levels of performance and actual targets, the traditional method neglects the effort exerted to reach the current level of performance in the first place.

Countries that began efforts towards achieving the MDGs at very low levels of development undoubtedly require more effort in terms of, inter

alia, investments in infrastructure and human capital to catch up with those that started at higher levels of development. Hence, in the absence of separate targets for this category of countries, it makes sense to assess their performance more in terms of how far they have progressed from their initial conditions than how far they are from achieving the target.

This methodology has been criticized on several grounds. One strand of criticism argues that it is misleading to engage in regional and country comparisons because the MDGs were conceived as global and not regional or country targets.

Hence, what matters is the aggregate performance, not the regional or country performance

(Vandermootele, 2007). But even if this argument is correct, the framework is monitored at the national and regional levels. In addition, to the extent that the welfare of the poor in Africa is just

A variant of the criticism focused on effort argues that the amount of effort required to make progress on any given indicator increases as a country gets closer to achieving the target. Hence, this additional effort must be reflected in any assessment of performance. In effect, this view focuses on the effort required by good performers to achieve the targets. While this may be valid, one cannot discount the huge effort in terms of financial and human resources outlays required by developing countries at the lower end of the performance distribution to achieve the MDGs. It is interesting to note, however, that all MDG performance assessments that are based on the alternative methodologies find that African countries are among the top performers towards achieving

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6

5

8

7

4

3

2

-1

-2

1

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The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance the MDGs. Indeed, these methodologies that measure distance away from the starting point yield strikingly different results than the current method of measuring progress, which is based exclusively on distance from the target.

Indeed, Africa’s current performance on the MDGs cannot be separated from its initial conditions. The continent’s experience illustrates the challenges that regions or countries at low levels of development face in making progress on the MDGs and the importance of factoring such constraints in their MDG performance assessments. Leveraged by rapid growth, African countries are investing in the systems and socio-economic infrastructure required to accelerate progress on the MDGs. of the MDGs approaches and as the continent’s performance is assessed, it is important not to lose sight of the historical context that framed the continent’s MDG performance. The next section describes the difficult conditions under which the continent began its MDG journey.

Initial conditions

Low levels of GDP per capita

The continent’s recent economic performance was preceded by what has been dubbed ‘the lost decade’. Indeed, the lacklustre performance led the Economist magazine to describe Africa as the

“hopeless continent” in May 2000. It was not until

2011 that the same magazine referred to Africa as the “rising continent”. This was followed by a

March 2013 special report of the magazine, which referred to Africa as the “hopeful continent”.

After almost two decades of low growth, since the early 1990s, Africa has witnessed remarkable real

GDP growth (around 5 percent), driven by rising commodity prices, stable macro-economic stability and good governance. The positive performance was buoyed by a decline in the incidence of conflict and growing domestic investments, particularly in infrastructure. But as the final year

The period prior to the growth acceleration in Africa was characterized by low per capita incomes and lacklustre real GDP growth (figure

0.1). Indeed, the continent’s per capita incomes levels began to diverge from the other regions after 1980, a period that coincided with the

Figure 0.1: Real GDP Growth (percent) in Africa excluding North Africa

Source: UNCTAD, 2013

2

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Figure 0.2: Trends in GDP per capita levels (in $) for developing regions, 1980-2010

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

World Africa Asia Latin America

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Bolt and Van Zandem, 2013.

adoption of Structural Adjustment Programmes in Africa (figure 0.2). By curtailing the role of the state in economic activities and opening up

Africa’s nascent economies to competition from more mature economies, Structural Adjustment

Programmes not only undermined the delivery of social services, but also contributed to low growth, de-industrialization and heightened dependence on primary commodities. Real GDP growth averaged 1.32 percent during the 1980-1989 period, and by 1990, per capita incomes in Africa were almost half of the level in Asia and a quarter of the level in Latin America.

Access to financing

Africa’s performance on the MDGs has also been constrained by limited access to financing.

Making rapid progress on the MDGs requires increased investments in economic and social infrastructure, research and development, value addition, agricultural productivity, and social services particularly, health education and sanitation.

These investments require substantial financial outlays. ODA and concessional lending have contributed to expanding the fiscal envelope, but at the same time, conditionalities and tied aid have closed the policy space for several African countries to implement bold policies and initiatives.

Furthermore, the volume of aid has fallen short of commitments. Although ODA to Africa reached unprecedented levels in 2006, it was still well below the 0.7 percent of GNI commitments made by Development Assistance Committee (DAC) members.

Notwithstanding the continent’s relatively high share of the total, ODA constitutes a small fraction of the resources required to achieve the MDGs in Africa. One estimate places the total cost of closing the MDG financing gap for all LICs at $73 billion in 2006, rising to $135 billion in 2015. To fill the financing gap, donors would have had to increase their ODA to 0.5 percent of GNI (Millennium Project, 2002-2006). However, as of 2013,

ODA accounts for 0.3 percent of GNI.

An analysis of the per capita distribution of ODA yields insights into the inadequate level of funding for the MDGs in Africa. On a per capita basis

(i.e. ODA in current dollars per poor person), ODA to Southern, East, Central and West Africa as a group is around $50; only Southern Asia and Eastern Asia have lower values. In contrast, on average, a poor person receives $200 in ODA in the

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Figure 0.3: Illicit financial flows from Africa over the 1970-2009 period, $ billion

0

-20

60

40

20

120

100

80

Ndikumana and Boyce (2008) Kar and Carthwright-Smith (2010) Kar and Freitas (2011)

Source: ECA, 2012a.

Caribbean even though the region’s poverty ratio is much lower (approximately 28 percent). Furthermore, Latin America’s share of ODA (10 percent) is almost double its poverty ratios (approximately 5 percent), yet the average poor person receives more than $300 in ODA per annum. Thus, although Africa receives the highest share of ODA

(45 percent), this figure masks the low level of

ODA received per poor person (UN, 2013b).

Illicit financial flows (IFF)

Africa’s capacity to finance its development was also compromised by the massive illicit outflows of financial resources often instigated by Western firms with the complicity of African officials. The continent is estimated to have lost about $854 billion in illicit financial flows over the 39 year period

(1970–2008), which corresponds to a yearly average of about $22 billion.

1

This cumulative amount is considerably high compared to the external debt of the continent and is equivalent to nearly all the ODA received by Africa during that time frame

2

4

(ECA, 2012a).

1 The Africa Progress Report of the High-Level Panel on Illicit

Financial Flows (IFF), headed by President Thabo Mbeki, estimates this to be between $50.00 billion and $60.00 billion annually.

2 $1.07 trillion of ODA was received by Africa between 1970 and

2008; calculation based on Table 2.2.9 of Chapter II of the OECD

2012 report “Development Aid at a Glance – Statistics by Region”.

Conflict and instability

The early 1990s was also a period of elevated conflict and relative instability in Africa. On average, between 1989 and 2002, the number of conflicts ranged between 10 and 15 per year. This has had adverse consequences for socio-economic and infrastructure development. During the 1994-

2003 period, approximately 9.2 million people died from conflicts, and as of 2003, 15.6 million were internally displaced (United Nations, 2005).

Conflict and instability not only robbed the continent of its scarce human resources, but also heightened the risk perception of the continent, with adverse implications for foreign and domestic private sector investments. Even though Asia has a higher incidence of conflict than Africa, the latter is perceived to be a more risky environment for investors.

Infrastructure gaps

Weak infrastructure has also slowed the continent’s progress on the MDGs. Africa’s low initial conditions are evidenced by its large infrastructure deficits estimated at $93 billion per year up to

2020. Infrastructure deficits are particularly acute in the energy sector, which accounts for a large portion (40 percent) of the infrastructure funding requirements. A study of 24 African countries estimated that the poor state of infrastructure in

Southern, East, Central and West Africa reduces economic growth by 2 percentage points every

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Table 0.1: Top five destinations by share of total illicit financial flows for selected

African countries and sectors where there are significant illicit financial flows (trade mispricing only), 2008

Nigeria - Oil Algeria - Oil SACU - Precious metals Cote d’Ivoire - Cocoa Zambia - Copper

(HS2 code 27) (HS2 code 27)

United States 29% Germany

and (HS2 code 71)

16.1% India

(HS2 code 18)

23.2% Germany

(HS2 code 74)

23.6% Saudi Arabia 23.4

Spain 22.7% Canada 9.4% Korea, Rep 15.7%

France

Japan

Germany

Top 5 Total

22% Turkey 14.6^ United Arab

Emirates

11.7% Italy 9% Canada

8% Tunisia 10.2% United States

8% United States 6.8% Turkey

76.4 Top 5 Total 59.4% Top 5 Total

14.2% United States

10.8% Mexico

7.2% France

78.2% Top 5 Total

9.2% China

8.5% Thailand

7.4% Pakistan

58.1% Top 5 Total

10.4%

5.7%

2.6%

57.9%

Note: SACU: Southern Africa Customs Union.

Source: ECA, 2012a.

year and undercuts business productivity by 40 percent (Qobo, 2014). The poor state of infrastructure in Africa has been a major bottleneck to the achievement of the MDGs.

Points of departure

In the backdrop of these initial conditions, it is therefore not surprising that, by the MDG benchmark year of 1990, Africa excluding North Africa had the worst performance on all the MDG indicators, with the exception of the following indicators: prevalence of underweight children under five years of age; gender parity in primary enrolment; the share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector; and a few obvious environment indicators, such as the proportion of land area covered by forests; the proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected; and carbon dioxide emissions. Indeed, the positive performance on the environmental indicators is a reflection of the low level of development of

Figure 0.4: Trends in armed conflicts, 1990-2012

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20

15

10

5

0

Africa

Source: Themnér and Wallensteen, 2013.

Asia Europe Middle East Americas

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance the continent. For instance, low carbon emissions reflect low levels of industrial development.

The high level of poverty in Africa excluding North

Africa in 1990 is symptomatic of the continent’s low level of development; 56.5 percent versus developing regions’ average of 43.1 percent

(based on $1.25 per day poverty rate). This was higher than any other regional grouping. And unlike most regions, in 1999, this figure actually increased in the initial phase of the MDGs, rising from 56.5 percent in 1990 to 58.0 percent in 1999

(Ravallion, 2013). Performance on health and education indicators was particularly striking. Net primary enrolment was 54 percent versus the developing country average of 80 percent. Child mortality was at 177 per 1,000 births compared to 99 per 1,000 births for developing regions. In addition, maternal mortality was more than double the world average of 380 deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990, at 870 deaths per 100,000 live births (WHO, 2014).

Notwithstanding the strikingly unequal initial conditions across the regions, Africa’s Heads of

State and Governments signed the Millennium

Declaration in 2000. Their performance has since been evaluated with respect to the universal MDG targets using the methodology described above. of a process that started as far back as the late

1700s with the Industrial Revolution, which set in motion a chain of economic and social developments that contributed to their transformation.

Nevertheless, these developments were spread over a period of more than 50 years as were the benefits that accrued from them. For example, expansion of railways connecting major European cities did not start until the 1830s (Sussman, 2009), while expansion of general hospitals in the United

States of America begun in 1880 (Falk, 1999). At the same time, standards of living deteriorated for the population at the bottom of the social ladder, inequalities between factory owners and factory workers increased, as many factory workers lived in ‘shantytowns’ often characterized by poor sanitation facilities (Friedrich, 1892; Woodward, 1981).

Poor sanitation and cramped living conditions resulted in the spread of cholera from polluted water. Lung and respiratory diseases such as tuberculosis (TB) were also common as a result of long hours spent in the mines. Moreover, because of limited availability of qualified health personnel and the deplorable state of many hospitals, the hospital mortality rate in Europe and America was as high as 74 percent during the 1870s (Falk, 1999).

The implications of this assessment methodology are far-reaching, i.e. countries such as Ethiopia, Uganda and Mozambique are expected to achieve the same targets as countries with much lower poverty rates. But more importantly, the low level of development and growth in most developing countries in Africa suggests that they had to overcome a higher level of development

‘inertia’ than countries that enjoyed more sophisticated infrastructure a more productive workforce and well established institutions.

It is estimated that it took England around 60 years to double its per capita income when the Industrial Revolution began. It took the United States around 50 years to double its per capita income during the American economic take-off in the late

19th century. But the Industrial Revolution alone was not sufficient to transform economies, which explains some of the worsening living standards and conditions described above. Reforms were necessary in various sectors of the economy, such as education reforms in skills development and institutional, labour and agricultural reforms implemented through the 1800s and 1900s.

Historical comparisons

The performance of African countries on the

MDGs can best be appreciated if situated in the context of the historical evolution of developed countries in addressing poverty. The development history of advanced economies shows that their current level of development is the result

Reducing poverty in Britain and the United States of America

Lessons learned from Great Britain and the United

States of America in tackling poverty underscore the challenges that developed countries have in addressing this issue. By 1900, approximately 15 percent of the population of Great Britain lived at subsistence level, while another 10 percent

6

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Figure 0.5: Trend in GDP per capita levels across regions, 1990 (purchasing power parity)

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

World

Canada

Africa

Western Europe

Asia Latin America USA

Source: Bolt and van Zandem, 2013.

lived below subsistence level. Twenty-four years later (i.e. 1924), 4 percent were living at below the subsistence level; and by 1930, 10 percent were at the subsistence level. In effect, it took around 30 years for Britain to halve the share of the population living at or below the subsistence level. This performance occurred together with initiatives and enabling legislation, such as free meals for school children (1901), the payment of old age pension benefits, and the establishment of Wage Councils that set minimum wages in certain industries (1909) and of laws that provided for sickness and unemployment benefits in certain industries (1911) (Lambert, 2013). It is important to note that the GDP per capita of Western

Europe averaged around $4,000 per capita during this period (in 1990 international dollars), which was much higher than the current GDP of most

African countries (Figure 0.5).

Poverty in the United States

The experience of the United States in addressing poverty is also instructive and can be traced to the New Deal initiative of the 1930s. Instituted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the initiative was in response to the Great Depression, which relegated millions of middle-class families to the ranks of poverty. The programme provided federal assistance to the poor, developed public works projects to create jobs, and enacted the

Social Security Act, which provided benefits not only for the elderly, but also for the disabled.

3

The onset of World War II created an economic boom for the industrial sector and lifted the country out of the depression. But by 1964, the country was again confronted with the challenge of addressing poverty.

An analysis of US President Lyndon Johnson’s

‘War on Poverty’ reveals the difficulty of halving poverty even for advanced countries. In response to the growing challenge of poverty, the escalation of mass social struggles of the working class, a rising civil rights movement in the South, and the spread of militant trade union struggles, the

President initiated a programme to tackle pov-

3 The Tennessee Valley Authority Act, which authorized the federal government to build dams along the Tennessee River in order to provide cheap hydroelectricity to the population) and introduced social security to the United States of America. The Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA) was created to provide relief to the needy (approximately $18 billion over its history, from

1933 to 1936).

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The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Figure 0.6: Poverty trends in the United States (% below the national poverty line)

50

40

30

20

10

0

1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012

Female headed families Families

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 2014.

erty in the United States in 1964. But despite its wealth and status as a Superpower, the United

States could not come close to eradicating poverty within its borders. Figure 0.6 shows that even though poverty was on the decline prior to the

‘War on Poverty’, if one uses 1964 as a baseline, this programme never succeeded in halving the poverty rate, neither for families in general, nor for female-headed families. The poverty rate for female-headed families declined from 36.4 percent in 1964 to 30.9 percent in 2012, with the lowest point of 25.4 percent in 2000. For poor families in general, the poverty rate was 15.0 percent in

1964 to 11.8 percent in 2012, with a low point of

8.7 percent in 2000 (Figure 0.6). has progressed from its initial condition. Notable among this genre of methods are studies by Fukuda-Parr and Greenstein (2010), and Leo and Barmier (2010), who assessed progress on the basis of the rate of change in performance between two points in time. On this basis, MDG indicators were classified as experiencing ‘acceleration’ or

‘non-acceleration’. Their studies reveal that LDCs and African countries, particularly those in the

Southern, East, Central and West subregions, have experienced accelerated performance on the

MDGs.

Recognizing effort: alternative methodologies

The discussions above underscore the importance of factoring initial conditions as well as effort in the assessment of progress towards the MDGs.

Accordingly, a number of alternative methodologies have been devised to track progress on the

MDGs, taking into account the initial conditions and efforts of countries. These approaches depart from the traditional measurements that focus exclusively on the level of progress or lack thereof towards a specified target. In general, these methodologies place a relatively higher premium on effort by estimating the extent to which a country

8

Building on this method, other studies such as Hailu and Tsukada (2011) are based on the assumption that progress on MDG indicators is non-linear; the effort required to achieve a target increases the closer one gets to it. In effect, the assumption is that it takes more effort to increase net primary enrolment from 85 to 90 percent than it does to increase it from 20 to 30 percent

(Osorio, 2008a and 2008b). As a result, in the estimation of progress, this methodology places a greater premium on the effort of countries at the higher end of the performance curve than those at the relatively lower ends. The findings of

Hailu and Tsukada (2011) reveal that eight of the top ten good performers (i.e. those experiencing the most rapid acceleration) are in Southern, East,

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance

Table 0.2: Comparison of the rate-of-change based methodology and the current approach used by the United Nations

Burkina Faso

Cote d’Ivoire

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Morocco

Mozambique

Senegal

Swaziland

Uganda

Zambia

Methodology based on the rate of change

Annual Poverty

Change 1990-2001

0.38

-0.84

-1.34

-2.62

-1.26

0.36

-1.63

2.33

-3.03

0.48

-3.56

Annual Poverty

Change 2001-2010

-1.98

0.08

-4.33

-2.13

-1.20

-0.63

-3.78

-1.46

-2.79

-2.77

1.30

Accelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Decelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Accelerated

Decelerated

Current United Nations

Methodology

Percentage point change

1990-2010*

-26.60

6.00

-49.30

-4.70

-35.70

% change

1990-2010

-37.35

33.69

-53.23

-6.48

-41.46

0.00

-51.00

-36.20

-38.00

-32.00

13.40

0.00

-63.27

-55.01

-48.34

-45.71

20.52

Source: Authors calculations based on UNSD, 2013

* Some countries do not have data for 1990, 2001, 2010. In such cases, calculations are based on the earliest data available after or before those years.

Note: Poverty rate: Population below $1 (PPP) per day, percentage

Central and West Africa. Burkina Faso ranked the highest in MDG acceleration. Progress was more rapid in LDCs than in non-LDCs, and the most progress was made on indicators for MDGs 1, 2,

4, 6 and 8. For MDG 1, the rate of GDP per person employed showed the most rapid acceleration.

For MDG 8, ODA disbursements to social services to SIDS rapidly accelerated. The least progress was made on the indicators on increasing the share of women in the non-agricultural sector and gender parity in primary enrolment (MDG3), reducing maternal mortality (MDG 5) and increasing access to sanitation (MDG 7).

To underscore the differences in outcomes between the traditional and alternative methodologies, the performance of selected African countries on MDG 1 are assessed using both the current United Nations methodology and the annual rate of change methodology of Fukuda-Parr and Greenstein (2010).

4

4 This involves comparing the indicator in 1990 or the earliest date that it is available after 1990 to its level after 2003. The rate of change is then computed for the two points in time to determine whether improvement in the indicator has accelerated a deceler-

With few exceptions (i.e. Zambia and Mali), the rate of poverty reduction was faster during the

2001-2010 period than the preceding period

(1990-2001). Using the current method, the last column assesses progress based on whether countries have succeeded in achieving the target of halving the 1990 poverty level. Based on this method, the computations suggest that only

Guinea, Mozambique and Senegal have achieved the target. However, this conclusion ignores the accelerated effort by Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire,

Madagascar, Morocco and Swaziland in achieving this target. This information is, however, important for identifying countries for targeted MDG acceleration interventions.

Conclusions

Performance on the MDGs has varied by country and region. Some regions are closer to meeting ated. Fukuda-Parr and Greenstein (2010) formalize this methodology as follows: If ((D

MID

-D

FST

)/(Y

MID

-Y

Acceleration”, “Acceleration” (1).

FST

)>=(D

LST

-D

MID

)/(Y

LST

-Y

MID

), “No

Where

Y

FST

is the earliest year to 1990,

Y

MID

is 2001-2003,

Y

LST

is the recent available year,

D

FST

is the first year indicator value,

D

MID

the second year indicator value, and

D

LST

value.

is

is the third year indicator

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

9

The Role of Initial Conditions in Africa’s MDG Performance the targets than others. However, not all countries had the same starting points. Some were

LICs, while others were middle-income countries

(MICs) or high-income countries (HICs). With 34 out of 54 countries classified as LDCs, the Africa region embodies a disproportionate share of LICs and understandably was the region with the lowest starting point. It is therefore inappropriate to assess the continent’s performance on the same basis as the more advanced regions. But this does not mean that the region should not be assessed.

What it does mean is that such assessments must take into account the initial conditions of the continent. Operationally, this involves measuring the effort that the continent has exerted in achieving the goals. The analysis has demonstrated that initial conditions matter in measuring progress towards the MDGs. As the international community ponders the substance and format of the successor development agenda, the issue of how to measure progress with equity should be granted the priority it deserves.

10

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

SECTION II: Tracking Progress

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Initial conditions matter in reaching the poverty target

Due to the varying initial conditions for different countries on economic, social and political environments in 1990, it is very difficult to make country comparison on the MDG targets. What makes the challenge facing Africa so daunting in achieving the MDGs is the region’s poverty profile. Africa was not at the same poverty level with other regions at the start of the MDGs (using the 1990 reference year). In 1990, 57 percent of Africans (excluding

North Africans) were living below $1.25 a day compared to 60 percent in China, 51 percent in India,

12 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 6 percent in the Middle East and North Africa.

Evidence shows that the initial conditions count in MDG performance. In most situations, the initial conditions set the climate for subsequent growth and policy environment. Most countries that are making substantial progress on the MDGs had more favourable starting conditions around 1990.

A higher per capita GDP in 1990, an indication of an economy’s capacity when population has been accounted for, is generally associated with better

MDG performance especially on poverty (World

Bank, 2010). For instance, LICs’ share of aggregate poverty gap in GDP was estimated at around 20 percent in 1990 compared to 5 percent for India and around 8 percent for China. While most African countries spend around 20 percent of their GDP to fill the poverty gap, countries such as China and

India spend less than 10 percent of their GDP to achieve the same goal. Setting the same poverty targets for Africa and other regions based on different initial conditions, therefore, requires more efforts in some African countries than in others.

The World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional

Assessment (CPIA)

5

suggests that countries starting with good policies and institutions tend to perform better in achieving the MDGs (World

Bank, 2010). With respect to extreme poverty, countries making the fastest progress are those that had medium poverty rates in the 1990s. Poor countries have a longer distance to go in halving extreme poverty because of high poverty levels.

Initial conditions and subsequent growth and policy also indicate the reasons for which the MDGs are such a significant challenge for the poorest and most fragile countries. First, with respect to starting conditions, the average income (PPP) of the extreme poor living in Africa excluding North

Africa in 1990 was estimated at $0.69 compared to China at $0.83 and India at $0.89. It is $0.82 for the developing world, and is $0.84 for the developing world excluding East, West, Central and

Southern Africa. This shows that countries with very good initial conditions have less mileage to cover in the race to poverty reduction than those with poor initial conditions, especially in Africa

(Olinto et al., 2013). Second, the fact that most conflict and post-conflict countries are located in

Africa further creates a setback in terms of weak growth and policy environment for accelerating the reduction of poverty and hunger.

5 The CPIA is a diagnostic tool used to capture the quality of countries’ policies and institutional arrangements. It is divided into four clusters that specifically measure economic management, structural policies, policies for social inclusion and equity, and public sector management and institutions.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

11

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Poverty in Africa continuing to decline, but the pace is not sufficient for the continent to achieve the target of halving poverty by 2015

Over the past decade, the number of Africans living in extreme poverty (less than $1.25 per day) has continued to decline in spite of the excruciating impact of the recent food, fuel, financial and

Eurozone crises. The proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day in Southern, East, Central and West Africa as a group decreased from 56.5 percent in 1990 to 48.5 percent in 2010,

6

an 8 percentage point reduction. However, based on the traditional measurement methodology, the reduction in poverty is still around 20.25 percentage points off the target of halving poverty by

2015. Taking the annual average, poverty declined faster over the 2005-2008 period than over the

1990-2005 period, reflecting accelerated progress on this indicator by African governments. This achievement has been linked to higher growth rates, improved governance environment, and implementation of social protection mechanisms across many countries.

part, by the differences in the economic growth elasticity of poverty among the regions and the level of political commitment to the implementation of social protection across countries. Africa’s

20 fastest-growing economies compare favourably well with China, India and Brazil (figure 1.1).

The pattern of growth in Africa is considerably diverse, spanning beyond resource-rich countries, to include coastal economies, commodity exporters and middle-income countries. See Box 1.1 for the pattern and diversity of a decade of successful growth performance in Africa.

Despite the phenomenal growth, the continent was more structurally transformed in 2000 than it is today. As argued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the United

Nations Industrial Development Organization

(UNCTAD and UNIDO, 2011), the value added in manufacturing fell from 14 to 10 percent of GDP between 2000 and 2008. The share of manufactured goods in Africa’s total exports also fell from

43 percent in 2000 to 39 percent in 2008. Over the same period, Africa’s share of global manufacturing exports marginally rose from 1.0 to 1.3 percent. Furthermore, although Africa’s share of the world population is 13 percent, its share of the global GDP is only 1.6 percent in 2013 (APP, 2014).

Relative to Africa’s experience, other developing regions have made remarkable progress in reducing poverty. The target of halving extreme poverty was reached in 2010 – five years ahead of the 2015 target deadline;

7

close to 721 million people moved out of extreme poverty, mostly as a result of more than a 50 percent fall in poverty in middle- and high-income countries, especially

China and India and other populous countries such as Indonesia and Brazil.

Within Africa, performance varies by country and subregion. In terms of the annual average, poverty declined the least in the Southern, East,

West and Central regions of Africa. This disparity in the pace of poverty reduction is explained, in

6 The new data on the 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) from the International Comparison Project tend to suggest that poverty in Africa and most of the developing world regions might have fallen below the officially released data for 2010. This cannot be used until the poverty figures are officially released.

7

The overall percentage of the population living below $1.25 a day in 2010 was 20.6 percent –0.95 percent below the 2015 target of 21.6 percent. See ECA, AUC, AfDB and UNDP (2013)

.

12

The poverty rate has dropped, but the total number of Africans living below the poverty line ($1.25 per day) increased

The number of Africans (excluding North Africans) living below the poverty line rose from 290 million in 1990 to 376 million (1999) and 414 million (2010). Four countries accounted for around

52 percent of the poor in the continent: Nigeria

(25.89%), Democratic Republic of the Congo

(13.6%), Tanzania (6.8%) and Ethiopia (5.2%). The continent’s share of the global poverty also rose from 15 percent in 1990 to 34 percent in 2010

(World Bank et al., 2014d; Olinto et al., 2013). This is an indication that rapid economic growth has failed to improve the living conditions for many

Africans. This tends to suggest that the structure of growth matters. The sector driving the growth process is vital in reducing poverty. For instance, the significant reduction in poverty in recent

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.1: Africa’s 20 fastest-growing economies compared with China, India and

Brazil, average annual growth, 2008-2013

Sierra Leone

China

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Ghana

Mozambique

Nigeria

Zambia

Liberia

Tanzania

India

Nigeria

Congo, D.R

Angola

Burkina Faso

Malawi

Congo, Republic

Uganda

Sao Tome and Principe

Lesotho

Gambia

Chad

Brazil

0 2 4 6 8 10

Source: Authors’ calculations based on APP, 2014.

times in Ethiopia and Rwanda has been linked to the rapid growth in agriculture. This is not the case for extractive sector-driven economies such as Angola, Nigeria and Zambia, which are mostly enclave sectors and not integrated into the rest of the economy.

Reducing poverty among LICs is still a formidable challenge. Approximately 1.2 billion people remained entrenched in destitution, and both the number of extremely poor individuals and the number of people living above poverty line

($1.25 per day) have increased (figure 1.2). Indeed, between 1990 and 2010, the number of people living with incomes above $1.25 rose much faster, at 3.9 percent per year, than those living below the poverty line, at 1.2 percent per year, implying a net exit out of extreme poverty. The share of global poverty indicates a significant proportion of the poor people (70.6 percent) are living in MICs and

29.4 percent in LICs. Of the total, 38.3 percent live in fragile states.

8

Africa (excluding North Africa) is still home to about one third of the developing world’s poor compared to 41.7 percent in South

Asia and 20.7 percent in East Asia and Pacific.

This indicates that the emerging dynamics of poverty concentration calls for a renewed and comprehensive action against poverty in both the LICs and MICs, with some strategic focus on the fragile states. Particularly, for Africa to eliminate poverty by 2030, as stated in the Common

African Position (CAP) on the post-2015 Devel-

8 See Chandry and Kharas (2014).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

13

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.2: Populations living above and below $1.25/day in low income countries

(LICs), 1981-2010

1500

370

1200

370

900

316

257

600

249

147

183

627

300

499

397

0

1981

Total population in LICs

1990 1999

Population living with > $1.25/day

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Olinto et al., 2013.

338

800

Extremely Poor

2010 opment Agenda, African governments will have to prioritize structural economic transformation and people-centred development as key in their respective national development agenda.

Only marginal progress in Africa

(excluding North Africa) despite a remarkable drop in the depth of poverty in the developing world

The depth of extreme poverty

9

fell by 25 percent in the past three decades in the developing world.

The average person living in extreme poverty had a higher income in 2010 ($0.87 per day) than in

1990 ($0.82 in 1990). Consequently, the average depth of extreme poverty fell from $0.43 in 1990 to $0.38 in 2010 (Olinto et al., 2013). The improvement was only appreciable in China and India, and marginal in LICs – 15.3 percent in China,

10.3 percent in India and 5.4 percent in LICs. The aggregate poverty gap as a share of developing world GDP in 2010 is a tenth of the value in 1981.

For LICs, however, it fell from 24.0 to 8.0 percent during the same period.

10

In spite of this appreciable decline, the poverty gap to GDP ratio in LICs is still 16 times larger than that of developing world.

Average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa (excluding North Africa) remained almost stagnant between 1990 and 2010 (figure 1.3); it ranged between $0.69 and $0.71. The wide gap indicates that Africans are very poor and are being left behind in the distribution of the benefits of growth. This is further reinforced by Africa Progress Panel (APP) findings that average consumption of the poor in Africa is very low relative to the poverty line. For instance, in Liberia, Central

African Republic, Nigeria, Madagascar, Zambia and Democratic Republic of the Congo, the poor live on a daily consumption of $.65 or less per day compared to around $1.00 per day in Cameroon,

South Africa and Cape Verde. In spite of this, Africa has the second highest global share of poverty at

34.1 percent, after South Asia (41.7 percent), while

Europe and Central Asia account for the lowest share at 0.3 percent (figure 1.4)

9 This indicates how far the average extremely poor person is from the $1.25 per day poverty line.

10 See Ravallion (2013); Olinto, et al. (2013), and Chen and

Ravillion (2010).

14

Unequal progress on poverty reduction across African countries

Six countries – Tunisia, Egypt, Cameroon, The

Gambia, Senegal and Guinea – have achieved the target on poverty reduction; Ethiopia, Swaziland,

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

1.10

0.95

0.80

0.65

0.50

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.3: Average per capita income of the extreme poor in Africa excluding North

Africa, 1990-2010

1.25

Africa (excluding North Africa) Developing World Developing World

(without Africa excluding North Africa)

Source: World Bank, 2014d.

Figure 1.4: Global share of poverty among developing regions, 2010 (%)

Africa, excluding North Africa

34.1

South Asia

41.7

East Asia and Pacific

20.7

Europe and

Central Asia

0.3

Latin America and the Caribbean

2.7

Middle East and

North Africa

0.7

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Chandy and Homi, 2014.

Uganda and Mauritania are less than 5 percentage points away from reaching the target; and

Ghana, South Africa, Mali and Niger are around

10 percentage points away. Twelve countries succeeded in reducing poverty by between 1.00 percent and 40.00 percent. However, the poverty situation worsened in Central African Republic,

Nigeria, Madagascar, Zambia, Kenya, Guinea

Bissau and Côte d’Ivoire.

11

Figure 1.5 shows the poverty level and rate of change in poverty. When

11 Although several countries have data available at the national level, differences in approaches made comparability challenging.

To this end, only international data from the World Development

Indicators are used for this indicator.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

15

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Box 1.1: Africa’s decade of rapid economic growth can be sustained

Africa’s economic fortunes shifted positively over 2000-2012, and the prospects for further growth still remain bright. The continent, historically categorized as the lagging region on economic growth prior to 2000, rose from slow growth trends in the 1980s and 1990s, to around 5 percent per annum between 2000 and 2012. When South Africa is excluded from the

Africa excluding North Africa region, the growth rate was over 6 percent per year. In fact, from 2012 to 2013, more than 33 percent of African countries grew at an annual average of over 6 percent. This achievement is only second to the performance of East Asia. The pattern of growth in Africa is considerably diverse. The strong growth spans beyond resource-rich countries to include coastal economies (e.g. Mozambique, Senegal and Tanzania); landlocked countries (e.g. Burkina Faso and Uganda), commodity exporters (e.g. the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Zambia) and middle-income countries (MICs) such as Botswana. The phenomenal growth in Ethiopia and Rwanda has been fuelled by agriculture, while service sectors drive progress in Burkina Faso, Tanzania and Uganda.

In Africa excluding North Africa, the average per capita income has been rising between 3 and 4 percent per year, which is around one third higher than in 2000. The rapid growth is pushing more countries towards middle-income status.* The number of MICs rose from ten in 2000, to 16 in 2006, to 21 in 2013. Projections from the World Bank suggest this could rise to 31 by 2025 based on the current growth trend.

What has driven growth in the past decade? Key drivers include strong domestic demand and investment, steady increase in foreign capital flows, strong commodity prices, deepening interdependence with China and other emerging economies, and improved economic governance. The rising African conglomerates (especially from South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria) also played important roles. However, some of the risks to growth include: rising public debt to GDP ratio (from 29 percent in 2008 to 34 percent in 2013); a long-term decline in commodity prices, which could be a source of vulnerability; reversal of monetary easing in the West, especially the United States of America, which could pose some threats; and China’s change of strategy from foreign investment to domestic demand expansion, which could also portend some dangers. African governments must design national policies to address these threats.

The prospect for further growth is bright. For instance, three powerful forces could create opportunities for growth, such as Africa’s demographic power, which could unleash market expansion; urbanization, which provide substantial opportunities; and there is a rising wave of technology that is driven from the grassroots. To sustain high growth and deepen its inclusiveness, African governments must structurally transform their economies byl promoting strong economic diversification; expanding new technologies; continuously raising agricultural productivity; enlarging the manufacturing sector; building a critical mass of skilled and virile workforce; developing infrastructure; and deepening economic governance.

Source: APP, 2014; World Bank, 2013a.

* As at July 2011, The World Bank Atlas method classifies countries into income groups based on GHI per capita as follows: low income ($1,005 or less), low middle income ($1,005 - $3,975), upper middle income ($3,976-$12,275) and high income ($12,275 or more).

the newly released 2011 purchasing power parity

(PPP) is applied to national poverty levels, there is a high likelihood that these figures might change.

Macro-economic stability, the pattern of economic growth and well-targeted, sectorspecific policies play an important role in accelerating poverty reduction. Macro-economic policies are accelerating economic growth and rapid poverty reduction in a number of countries: (i) fiscal policy is strategically focused on mobilizing revenue, scaling-up public investment and distributing benefits growth to the people (Ethiopia and Rwanda); (ii) monetary policies are effectively used to strengthen the financial sector, prevent inflationary pressures and stimulate private sector investment (Ghana); and

(iii) exchange rate policies are tailored towards gradual depreciation of overvalued currencies and maintaining international competitiveness

(Mauritius and South Africa).

12

Fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies should be aligned with sectoral poverty-reduction objectives. For instance, countries driven by capital-intensive industries tend to generate limited benefits to the poor. Export-led growth in Angola, Mozambique and Nigeria, and Tanzania’s mining sector-

12 See, for instance, Hailu and Weeks (2011) on how macro-economic policy could be used to rekindle growth and reduce poverty in post-conflict countries.

16

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger dependence are good examples of growth drivers that are not sufficiently labour absorbing.

13

 Sectorspecific policies and programmes that improve agricultural productivity and create employment opportunities in more productive and employment-intensive activities are crucial to enhance welfare and living conditions in the continent.

social safety nets – averaging approximately 94,

85, and 62 percent of total spending, respectively.

The flagship Productive Safety Net Programme

(PSNP) in Ethiopia is almost entirely externally financed. On a positive note, however, many LICs are increasingly including these programmes in their budgets. For a social protection programme to work very well, these structural weaknesses must be addressed. Box 1.2 illustrates the scope and features of social protection in Africa.

Countries that have been able to address inequality have also succeeded in accelerating growth and reducing poverty. When inequality is very high, the impact of high growth in reducing poverty is weakened. Addressing inequality through social protection makes growth more inclusive, builds a more cohesive society, and promotes a harmonious citizen-state relationship. This lays the foundation for growth sustainability, reinforces social stability, and deepens political legitimacy.

Rapid improvement in rural poverty in Ethiopia,

Rwanda and Ghana has been linked to stronger investment in agriculture and social protection.

Tackling poverty in Africa also requires increasing productivity and incomes in the informal sector.

The implementation of social protection in Africa only covers 20 percent of the poorest quintile compared to 50 percent in Eastern Europe and

Central Asia, and around 55 percent in Latin

America and the Caribbean.

14

Poverty in Africa is characterized by three important features: (i) predominance of rural poverty;

(ii) feminization of poverty; and (iii) intensity of informality. For instance, poverty is at least three times higher in rural areas than in urban areas

(e.g. Morocco, Egypt, Ghana, Zambia, Cameroon,

Cape Verde and Rwanda). The deplorable state of rural infrastructure, rural livelihoods and youth employment, limited access to quality education and high child labour are all key drivers of rural poverty.

16

Formulating and implementing integrated rural development, creating growth poles or clusters in rural communities, and improving agricultural yields are crucial in addressing the imbalance. On the other hand, countries such as

South Africa and Nigeria experience urban poverty. For countries in this situation, it is essential to address the imbalance between rural and urban development, enhance municipal service delivery, improve infrastructure provision, upgrade slums, and facilitate access to microfinance in order to reduce the incidence and severity of urban poverty in Africa.

It is difficult to uniformly apply social protection measures that have worked well elsewhere in the country due to certain factors: differences in average incomes,

15

which are lower in most

African countries; the limited scope for fiscal redistribution; and the relatively weak institutional capacity to design and deliver effective systems.

In addition to the problem of funding, targeting, capacity, and fragmentation, external financing represents the main source of social safety net funding in Africa, especially in LICs. As revealed by

World Bank (2014c), among a sample of 25 African countries, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Burkina Faso are the most dependent on external finance for

13 See Martins (2013) for more illuminating examples, especially for Mozambique and Tanzania.

14 See World Bank (2014c) for more information.

15 For instance, evidence from the World Bank (2014c) shows that richer countries spend more on social protection – 1.9 percent of

GDP on average – than LICs, who spend around 1.1 percent of GDP.

The feminization of poverty is prevalent in Egypt,

Cameroon, Morocco, Kenya, Cape Verde, South

Africa, Guinea and Madagascar, among others

(see ECA et al., 2013). Several factors account for this. Women’s work in the home and the workplace tends to be undervalued. Also, women’s jobs usually garner low wages and have poor working conditions. In addition, there is limited access to productive assets such as land due to traditional restrictions on women’s property rights. Fourth, a low level of education reduces access to decent, high-wage jobs. Finally, the prevalence of vio-

16 See NISR (2011); and CPRC (2011).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

17

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.5: Progress in combating poverty in Africa (%)

Tunisia (1990-2010)

Egypt, Arab Rep. (1991-2008)

Cameroon (1996-2007)

Senegal (1991-2011)

Gambia, The (1998-2003)

Guinea (1991-2007)

Ethiopia (1995-2011)

Swaziland (1995-2010)

Uganda (1992-2009)

Mauritania (1993-2008)

Ghana (1991-2006)

South Africa (1994-2009)

Mali (1994-2010)

Niger (1992-2008)

Burkina Faso (1994-2009)

Namibia (1993-2004)

Togo (2006-2011)

Mozambique (1996-2008)

Lesotho (1993-2003)

Rwanda (2000-2011)

Sierra Leone (1990-2003)

Botswana (1986-1994)

Malawi (1998-2004)

Algeria (1988-95)

Tanzania (1992-2007)

Burundi (1992-2006)

Morocco (1991-2007)

Central African Republic (2003-2008)

Nigeria (1992-2010)

Madagascar (1993-2010)

Zambia (1991-2006)

Kenya (1992-2005)

Guinea-Bissau (1991-2002)

Cote d'Ivoire (1993-2008)

Seychelles (2000-2007)

-100 -80 -60 -40

Start Year

Source: World Bank, 2014f. PovcalNet: An Online Poverty Analysis Tool http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm.

-20 0

End Year

20 40

Percentage change

60 80 100 lent civil conflicts discriminates against women and weakens their ability to be fully engaged in productive activities. Policy and actions should be targeted at factors propagating the unequal distribution of economic opportunities and assets between men and women in the continent.

18

Informality still characterizing the

African labour market

Most African workers are engaged in the informal sector. Generally, they are self-employed in precarious conditions (lower, more volatile pay) or are employed on a casual basis without a contract and access to social security. Informal sector employment is sometimes born out of necessity for those who are not able to find formal jobs, while others use it as a tactic to avoid taxation and regulation.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Box 1.2: Social safety nets: important poverty reduction instruments in African countries

Social protection is emerging as a powerful tool for fast-tracking poverty reduction in Africa. Addressing inequality through social protection makes growth more inclusive and sustainable, builds a more cohesive society, promotes a harmonious citizen-state relationship, and deepens political legitimacy. Realizing the importance of this initiative, several countries have adopted legislation that provides a framework for comprehensive social safety net programmes and at least one third of African countries have developed a social protection strategy. These programmes include cash transfers, public works programmes, and a range of safety nets for the poor and vulnerable, including 123 cash transfer programmes in

34 countries (Garcia and Moore, 2012) and over 500 work programmes (World Bank, 2012b). The number of countries implementing social protection programmes almost doubled from 21 in 2010 to 37 by 2013. Almost every country has one form of safety net. For instance, evidence from the World Bank (2014c) shows that out of 48 countries sampled in Africa,

45 countries had conditional in-kind transfers, 13 had conditional cash transfers, 39 had unconditional in-kind transfers, 37 had unconditional cash transfers, and 39 had public works.

There have been some successes in the implementation of social protection in Africa. The implementation of universal social pension in Mauritius is contributing to the low poverty rate in the country. South Africa has the most extensive social protection in the continent: old age pension, which reduces the poverty gap by 2.5 percent; disability grants, which reduce the total rand poverty gap by 5.1 percent; and the child support grant that extends to 18 years, which contributes to a 21.4 percent reduction in the poverty gap. The Namibian multi-dimensional social protection programme has had a high impact on poverty reduction of vulnerable groups. Malawi’s social protection programme has also significantly reduced hunger. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) reaches 8 million beneficiaries in around 1.5 million households, providing cash and food support through public works in areas affected by drought. Rwanda’s system of multiple social mechanisms – the Vision 2020 Umurenge Program (VUP), including universal health insurance (covering 91 percent of the population), free education and social transfers such as a pension scheme – have been linked to the overall decrease in extreme income poverty from 39 percent in 2006 to 34.5 percent in 2009 (ECA et al., 2011). Ghana, Nigeria,

Senegal, Kenya, Mozambique and the United Republic of Tanzania set up a variety of safety nets such as emergency food distribution to support vulnerable groups, for instance, orphans, widows and the elderly. Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and

Niger have provided emergency food distribution through cereal banks that sell food staples at subsidized prices, while

Kenya has developed an extensive set of hunger safety net programmes targeting arid and semi-arid areas (APP, 2014).

Social protection programmes in Africa still suffer from several weaknesses, ranging from chronic underfinancing (e.g.

Kenya and Tanzania still spend less than 0.3 percent of GDP) to low spending, which is often reflected in low coverage.

For example, in Madagascar, 75 percent of the population is deemed poor, but only 1 percent is currently covered, and in

Burundi, 67 percent are below the national poverty line, and only 5 percent are reached by social safety nets. Coverage is disproportionate to intensity. Fragmentation is another concern – small, donor-funded pilots or projects operate in isolation of other similar projects. Most of these interventions remain at the pilot stage with a very limited number scaled up. Other challenges include addressing targeting the wrong beneficiaries and weak programme coordination. In order to maximize the effects of social protection on poverty and inequality reduction, Africa must address these structural weaknesses.

Source: APP, 2014; World Bank, 2012b and 2014b; and ECA et al., 2011.

Evidence from the International Labour Organization (ILO, 2014) reveals that the share of workers in informal employment for 2011 is widespread in Africa, and range between 20 to 65 percent in selected countries. Enticing more workers out of informality should be a cardinal and strategic policy in Africa. This is crucial to reducing working poverty, improving working conditions and generating tax revenues that governments need to strengthen social welfare systems, which to a large extent, contribute to a rapid reduction in poverty and inequality.

Vulnerability: an emerging policy issue for governments

Between 1990 and 2010, the number of people living on less than $1.00 per day in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa as a group fell by $32.0 million, as opposed to those living on less than

$1.25 per day (124.1 million) and $2.00 per day (3.2

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

19

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.6: Regional comparison of income inequality (Gini coefficient), 1990–2009

Latin America & the Caribbean

Africa

Asia

Europe

0

10 20

1980-89

Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2013 Word Development Indicators.

30

1990-99

40

2000-09

50 60 million) poverty lines. The incidence of a series of economic shocks arising from the fuel, food and financial crises fell more heavily on the middle class, a group considered an important pillar of economic transformation. Addressing vulnerability among this group remains a serious policy challenge.

17

Inequality: Falling but still a serious concern

Africa is the second most unequal region in the world, after Latin America, where the rich capture the largest part of national resources. The Gini index for 2000-2009 for Africa is 43.9 compared to

52.2 for Latin America and the Caribbean. Asia and

Europe have the lowest Gini index, of 37.5 and

32.5, respectively. However, in terms of improvement between 1990-1999 and 2000-2009, Africa

17 Vulnerability refers to the probability or risk of being in poverty or falling into deeper poverty in the future. The risk of a significant dropin income may compel households to lower investments in productive assets or defer children’s education or household access to health services. Vulnerability may influence household behaviour and coping strategies, and is thus an important consideration for poverty reduction policies. See World Bank, http://web.worldbank.

org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/EXTPA/0,,contentMDK:20238993~menuPK:492141~pagePK:148956~piP-

K:216618~theSitePK:430367,00.html

20

showed the highest improvement (4.3 percent), followed by Asia (3.1 percent). Inequality worsened in Latin America and the Caribbean and

Europe (figure 1.6). UNDP (2013) also shows that

Africa achieved the largest decline in inequality between the 1990s and 2000s, a drop of approximately 7.0 percent.

The continent is permeated with horizontal inequalities, characterized by the exclusion of certain groups from actively participating in the social, economic, and political processes in society. This inequality has rendered the economic growth impact on social outcomes weak. For instance, in

2010, when inequality was excluded from Africa’s

(excluding North Africa) Human Development

Index (HDI), it lost 32.8 percentage points, in contrast to 30.2 percent in South Asia and 25.1 percent in Latin America and Caribbean regions. A similar trend was recorded in life expectancy, education and income indices (UNDP, 2010). In addition, the drivers of economic growth in Africa rest primarily on moderately capital-intensive sectors, with few spillover effects on employment creation and the rest of the economy. The result has been rising income inequality.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Geographical distribution of inequality in Africa between 2000 and 2009 shows that Southern

Africa (Gini index, 48.5) and Central Africa (45.0

Gini index) are the most unequal, and North

Africa (37.4) and East Africa (41.0 Gini index) are the least unequal.

18

Trend analysis of inequality over the past three decades reveals that East

Africa has continued to experience a widening gap between the rich and poor. The Gini index rose from 32.4 in 1980-89 to 38.4 in 1990-99, and

41.0 in 2000-09 (AfDB, 2012). Inequality also worsened over the past two decades in North Africa.

The best improvement was observed in Southern

Africa and West Africa.

19

(50.1%) (UNDP, 2010).

21

Yet there are still some outlier countries, i.e. those with high inequality.

For instance, based on availability of comparable data, 12 countries recorded a Gini coefficient

20 ing a serious development challenge.

of

50.00 percent and above between 2000 and 2010.

Most of these countries are in the Southern Africa subregion: Namibia (74.3%), Comoros (64.3%),

Botswana (61.0%), Angola (58.6%), South Africa

(57.8%), Lesotho (52.3%), Liberia (52.6%), Zambia and Swaziland (50.7%), Sao Tome and Principe (50.6%), Cape Verde(50.4%) and Zimbabwe

Moreover, in 2010, six out of the ten most unequal countries in the world were in Africa, with the largest concentration in

Southern Africa. Addressing inequality is becom-

Inequality takes the form of unequal access to income, economic opportunities, assets such as land, and use of public services such as education and healthcare, which to a large extent explains why poverty only marginally responds to economic growth in a positive way. The inequality elasticity of poverty in Africa is the lowest of any region;

22

the continent needs to reduce its high levels of inequality to ensure that the benefits of growth accrue to the broad segment of society.

Several factors explain the level of inequality in

Africa, including low elasticity of poverty relative to growth, low agricultural productivity, weak governance, prevalence of ethnicity and the commodity-dependence trap.

23

Africa must address these structural impediments.

Although the current level of inequality in East

Africa is one of the lowest in the continent, the continuous rising trend is a cause for concern.

Burundi is the least unequal country in East Africa, while inequality is quite high in Tanzania, Uganda,

Kenya and Rwanda. Although in the last two decades, inequality has started to fall in Rwanda and

Burundi, in Rwanda, the level still remains high. It is rising in Kenya and Tanzania, but has remained stable in Uganda over the past two decades. The rapid change in the structure of the East African economy is an important factor explaining the region’s economic performance and the uneven distribution of income and other benefits of growth. In just one decade, most East African economies reduced the share of agriculture in the economy and substantially increased that of the service sector. While there is no problem with this, the ability of the service sector to provide decent employment opportunities for rural migrants is weak. For instance, less than 10 percent of the working population in most of the East African countries are formally employed; specifically, 1.6 percent in Uganda, 4 percent in Burundi, 5 percent in Tanzania and 6 percent in Kenya.

24

In addition, unequal access to infrastructure and quality service delivery between urban and rural areas is an important social driver of inequality in the region. Other factors include overdependence on primary commodities, which renders most households vulnerable to price and natural disaster shocks such as droughts and floods.

18 For more information regarding the regional classification of inequality, see AfDB Briefing Note 5: Income inequality in Africa, 7

March 2012 for more information regarding the regional classification of inequality.

19 Between 1990-99 and 2000-09, the Gini index fell in Southern

Africa from 53.3 to 48.5 and in West Africa from 44.1 to 42.2 (UNDP,

2013).

20 The Gini index measures inequality, which ranges from 0 to 1. If its value is closer to 1, the distribution of income is highly unequal; if it is closer to 0, income distribution is almost equal.

21 The Gini index here may be different from national statistics due to the disparity between national and international statistics, an issue that the United Nations Statistical Commission is currently investigating.

22 See ECA et al. (2013) for more information on inequality elasticity of poverty and related issues.

23 Bigsten (2014) explores the dimensions of African inequality in great detail.

24 See SID (2013).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

21

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.7: Correlations between growth and inequality in Africa

12

Angola

Chad

Nigeria

10

Ethiopia

8

6

4

2

Sierra Leone

Tanzania

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Uganda

Mozambique

Mali

Burundi

Liberia

Mauritania

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Niger

Sudan

Guinea-Bissau

Benin

Senegal

Togo Gabon

Cameroon

Guinea

Cote d’Ivoire

Madagascar

Malawi

Rwanda

Cape Verde

Kenya

Sao Tome and Principe

Congo, Rep Lesotho

The Gambia

Swaziland

0

32 37 42 47 52

Zambia

Central African Rep.

57

Botswana

South Africa

62

Namibia

Comoros

Seychelles

67

-2

Zimbabwe

-4

GINI COEFFICIENT

Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank, 2014e.

Countries with low inequality (low Gini index) tend to achieve high economic growth. As evident in figure 1.7, most countries with a Gini index higher than 0.5 tend to have low growth (e.g.

Comoros, Seychelles, South Africa, and Swaziland) and sometimes negative growth (e.g.  Zimbabwe). The reverse holds for countries with a Gini index lower than 0.45 (e.g. Ethiopia, Sierra Leone,

Tanzania, Chad, Burkina Faso and Ghana). Lower inequality makes growth more inclusive, thereby boosting the capacity of growth to accelerate poverty reduction.

reveal that, on average, 39 percent of women own land individually, and 12 percent of women own land jointly, as opposed to 48 percent and 31 percent of men, respectively. In spite of the variation in methodology adopted in measuring land ownership in Africa, women still own a smaller share of land in the continent.

25

Addressing inequality in Africa therefore requires addressing women’s access to land ownership and control.

Women’s unequal access to land ownership and control is a major factor propelling the level of inequality in most African countries. Although the definition of land ownership varies widely, the consensus is that land ownership is disproportionately skewed against women in Africa. FAO’s land use database reveals that women account for an average of 24 percent of agricultural landholders.

But at the country level, this ranges from 3.1 percent in Mali to 50.5 percent in Cape Verde. Data from ten Demographic Household Surveys (DHSs)

22

Most drivers of inequality are linked to endogenous factors. However, exogenous drivers of income inequality are equally important, including the effects of trade and trade openness, and financial globalization, particularly since it affects demand for skills and the associated wage differentials (UNDP, 2013). The domestic impact of exogenous factors, however, depends on how national macro-economic and labour market policies counteract or intensify their effects. African policymakers should explore how to use their macro-economic and labour market policies to

25 See, for instance, Doss et al. (2013) for detailed information on women land ownership in Africa.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

72

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger address the income inequality effects associated with globalization.

Employment not expanding sufficiently to keep up with the growing labour force

In Africa, an increasing number of youth are entering the labour market, but the available job opportunities are fewer. In 2013, Africa contributed to the bulk of the increase in global unemployment, followed by East Asia and the South Asia regions.

26

In fact, since 2007, unemployment has been rising in North Africa. It rose from 11.1 percent in 2007 to

12.2 percent in 2013 in North Africa, and declined from 7.7 percent in 2008 to 7.6 percent in 2013 in Africa (excluding North of Africa). South Africa is one of the countries in the continent with the highest rate of unemployment, which has been consistently higher than 20 percent over the past decade; rising from 22.3 percent in 2007 to 25.3 percent in 2013 (ILO, 2014). The global macro-economic developments have had a serious impact on labour markets through negative feedback loops from households, firms and public budgets. Against weak aggregate demand and fiscal austerity programmes in a number of countries, labour markets have been weakened by direct cuts in employment and wages. The reversal from the counter-cyclical response to the initial crisis in 2009 and 2010, to pro-cyclical measures afterwards contributed to a shrinking of labour markets between 2011 and 2013 (ILO, 2013 and

2014). Many African countries have not been able to develop their private sector to generate substantial decent jobs that could have an impact on unemployment and reduce underemployment.

There is therefore an urgent need for the economy to create more and better employment opportunities. Productive employment has proven to be a powerful instrument for achieving economic and social transformation and development. Jobs and livelihoods are vital to many broader societal objectives such as poverty reduction, economy-wide productivity growth, social cohesion and political stability. The definition of employment masks the true extent of the unemployment chal-

26 These two regions together represent more than 45 percent of additional jobseekers in 2013 (ILO, 2014).

lenge in Africa. Most national official statistics do not show unemployment as a serious challenge in

Africa because the large informal sector has given rise to underemployment and vulnerable jobs that count as employment. In the absence of data on underemployment, the unemployment rate in

Africa (particularly in Southern, East, Central and

West Africa) is understated. Policymakers should see the creation of decent jobs as an important solution to tackling poverty and inequality.

Unemployment disproportionately affecting youth

Africa has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world, with 27.2 percent of young people without work in 2013, versus 26.6 percent in 2012. Indeed, between 2007 and 2012, on average, this indicator was rising by about one percentage point each year, but rose by merely around 0.25 percentage points in 2013. The largest increase came from North Africa. In 2013, unemployment among youth reached around 19 percent in Morocco, over 22 percent in Algeria, 25 percent in Egypt, and over 42 percent in Tunisia

(ILO, 2014). North Africa, relative to other developing world regions, saw a substantial increase in youth unemployment rates (figure 1.8)

Of Africa’s unemployed, 60 percent are young people, and youth unemployment rates doubled those of adult unemployment in most African countries. The problem is particularly acute in MICs.

In 2009, youth unemployment in North Africa was

23.4 percent, and the youth-to-adult unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8. In South Africa, youth unemployment was 48 percent and the ratio of youth-to-adult unemployment rate was estimated at 2.5. Among the employed young, the proportion who work in the informal sector is significantly higher than that of adults. This is one of the reasons for which rapid economic growth in Africa has not been able to substantially reduce poverty. Youth, who should be the powerhouse of productivity, are mostly left out of the growth process. This not only increases the dependency ratio, but also weakens the capacity of the middle class to transform economic growth. For instance, on average, 72 percent of the youth population in

Africa live on less than $2 per day. The incidence

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

23

25

20

15

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.8: Regional comparison of youth unemployment, 2007-13

30

10

5

2007 2008 2009 2010

Africa (excluding North Africa)

Note: * indicates preliminary estimates for 2013.

Source: Author’s calculation based on from ILO, 2014.

North Africa

2011 2012 2013*

South Asia East Asia World of poverty among young people in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Uganda, Zambia and Burundi is over 80 percent (World Bank, 2009). The highest rates of poverty can be observed among young women and youth living in rural areas. But the impacts go much deeper. Box 1.3 explains some of youth employment opportunities, risks and lessons in

Africa.

Africa could learn from the experience of Latin

America, which succeeded in reducing youth unemployment between 2007 and 2013. The region became a job powerhouse, largely because of its solid economic performance, and a better educated and competent labour force (World

Bank, 2012a). With strong investment in young people’s capabilities, including in education, training and skills acquisition, Africa could create substantial jobs for its army of unemployed. Africa must pay particular attention to job-friendly macro-economic policies (including fiscal and monetary policies) and greater attention to labour market and social policies.

Need to step up efforts in increasing labour productivity

Labour productivity provides the opportunity to assess the extent to which an economy can generate and sustain decent employment opportunities, and also reflects the connection between the broader economy and the labour market. Further, it is an important element of economic and social transformation. It is central to sustaining economic growth, reducing poverty, narrowing inequality and improving livelihoods. It is important to understand the driving forces behind it, particularly the accumulation of machinery and equipment, and improvements in organization, as well as physical and institutional infrastructures, improved health and skills of workers and generation of new technology in order to formulate policies to support higher productivity that could impact on poverty and inequality in Africa.

Productivity growth in Africa is one of the lowest in the world. In Southern, East, Central and West

Africa as a group, labour productivity during the crisis and post-crisis eras has been lower than in

2007; it fell from 1.9 percent in 2012 to 1.6 percent in 2013. Productivity in Africa (excluding

North Africa) ranged between 3.7 and 1.6 percent between 2007 and 2013, and between 2.0 and -4.6 percent for North Africa, compared to between 11.2 and 5.8 percent in East Asia (figure

1.9). In sum, productivity has been lower in the post-crisis than the pre-crisis era. Weak recovery

24

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Box 1.3: African youth employment issues and challenges

With almost 200 million people aged between 15 and 24, Africa has the youngest population in the world. And it keeps growing rapidly. The number of young people in Africa will double by 2045. Between 2000 and 2008, Africa’s working age population (15-64 years) grew from 443 to 550 million, an increase of 25 percent. In annual terms, this is a growth of 13 million, or 2.7 percent per year (World Bank, 2011a). If this trend continues, the continent’s labour force will be 1 billion by

2040, making it the largest in the world, surpassing both China and India (McKinsey Global Institute, 2010).

This offers substantial opportunities for Africa, but has its associated risks. Based on current trends, 59 percent of 20-24 year olds will have had secondary education in 2030, compared to 42 percent today. This will translate into 137 million

20-24 year olds with secondary education and 12 million with tertiary education in 2030. Although significant quality gaps remain, these tends to offer an unrivalled opportunity for economic and social development if the talents of this swiftly increasing reservoir of human capital are harnessed and channelled towards the productive sectors of the economy.

However, they could also present a significant risk and threat to social cohesion and political stability if Africa fails to create sufficient economic and employment opportunities to support decent living conditions for this group.

Although many jobs have been created, they have not been enough to accommodate the number of young people in search of work. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that between 2000 and 2008, Africa created 73 million jobs, but only 16 million for young people aged between 15 and 24. As a result, many young Africans find themselves unemployed or, more frequently, underemployed in informal jobs with low productivity and pay, and poor working conditions.

The costs of inadequate employment are high. Long-term unemployment or underemployment in the informal market leads to de-skilling youths. The first years in the labour market, the skills developed and the experience then accumulated considerably affect young people’s future professional development. Long spells of unemployment or underemployment in informal work can “permanently impair future productive potential and therefore employment opportunities” (Guarcello et al., 2007).

African countries risk wasting the tremendous potential offered by their youth if heavy investment is not directed at developing their private sectors. The failure of the Arab countries to develop a private sector that is independent, competitive and integrated into global markets has been linked to the cause of the Arab Spring (Malik and Awadallah, 2011). Given

Africa’s strong population growth and the necessary downsizing of the public sector in many countries, a vigorous private sector is the most important source of jobs for the youth. Yet, lack of sufficient job creation is by far the biggest hurdle that young Africans face today. Maximizing the impact of a stronger private sector and economic growth on youth employment requires policies based on a sound understanding of the issues that youth face in finding and sustaining decent employment opportunities.

Source: 2014 African Economic Outlook; www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/in-depth/youth_employment.

in global investment and low agricultural productivity growth have contributed to this trend. Africa needs to invest heavily in human capital development, particularly in the quality of secondary education, and research and development, as in

East Asia.

27

In conclusion, African governments must prioritize employment generation as a national strategic action. Job creation should be mainstreamed into national development plans and strategies.

Concrete effort must be initiated to create a

27 See Mahmood and Afza (2008) on key drivers of labour productivity in East Asia.

conducive environment for rapid growth, which must be rich in jobs. Establishing sound labour policies and strategies is a necessary condition for growth by removing market distortions without obstructing efficiency. Governments must put in place measures to improve the productivity of the informal sector, create enabling environments for small-scale enterprises to blossom as well as measures to build the relevant skill sets among the population, especially youth and women.

In addition, governments must set the priority for public actions on jobs that have the greatest returns on development given each country’s

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

25

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.9: Labour productivity: a comparison of East Asia, North Africa and Africa

(excluding North Africa), 2001-13

4

2

8

6

12

10

-4

-6

0

-2

2001-06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Africa (excluding North Africa)

Note: Figures for 2013 are a preliminary estimate.

Source: Author’s calculation based on ILO, 2014.

North Africa East Asia development context. Finally, Africa needs pragmatic and proactive policies and programmes that continually bridge the infrastructure gap in the continent, including electricity, road, rail, waterways, irrigation, telecommunications and water supply. Also, there is an urgent need to remove bottlenecks to entrepreneurial transformation and private sector development.

Africa still far from reaching the hunger target

Between 1990 and 2013, Africa (excluding North

Africa) reduced hunger by around 23 percent, compared to Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern Europe and CIS, both of which were but one percentage point away from reaching the target (figure 1.10). Nevertheless, the task of reducing the number of people suffering from hunger has been challenging globally.

The performance of African countries in achieving the target of hunger varies markedly.

28

Four countries (Ghana, Angola, Malawi and Rwanda) achieved the target in 2013, while six countries are less than 10.0 percentage points away from reaching the target. Marginal or moderate progress was made in 29 countries to reach the target, whereas three had setbacks (Burundi, Comoros and Swaziland). Most of the North African countries (Algeria,

Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya) recorded less than 5 percent in the Global Hunger Index (GHI)

(Table 1.1). Climate change (drought, especially in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, and erosion in Swaziland) and conflicts (e.g. in the Central

African Republic and Côte d’Ivoire) are among the factors contributing to setbacks. Generally, low agricultural productivity is an important factor constraining progress towards this target. To this end, strengthening community capacity to be resilient to economic and climate related shocks

(including prices hikes, droughts and flood) and investing in agricultural productivity enhancement are pivotal.

28 Data are available for 47 countries and cover the 1990-2013 period.

26

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.10: Regional performance on the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2013

South Asia

Africa (excluding North Africa)

East and South East Asia

Near East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Eastern Europe and CSI

All developing regions

-60 -50 -40 -30

1990

-20

2013

-10 0 10

Percentage change

20 30 40

Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFPRI et al., 2013.

Table 1.1: Progress in reducing hunger (Global Hunger Index), 1990–2013

Achieved or close to achieving the target

Countries Global Hunger

Index (%)

Ghana -67.84

Marginal to moderate progress

Countries

Ethiopia

Global Hunger

Index (%)

-39.24

Countries

Burundi

Experienced setback

Global Hunger

Index (%)

14.79

Swaziland

Comoros

38.46

40.00

Angola

Malawi

Rwanda

Niger

Mauritania

Djibouti

Benin

Nigeria

Mozambique

Algeria

Egypt

Morocco

Tunisia

Libya

-51.65

-50.65

-50.32

-44.23

-41.85

-41.79

-40.89

-40.71

-40.28

GHI <5

GHI <5

GHI <5

GHI <5

GHI<5

Mauritius

Cameroon

Togo

Guinea- Bissau

Chad

Sudan

Sierra Leone

Gambia

Gabon

South Africa

Central African

Republic

Senegal

Liberia

Guinea

Zimbabwe

Burkina Faso

Botswana

-23.76

-23.50

-21.03

-17.50

-17.47

-17.26

-38.82

-38.82

-36.09

-34.10

-30.67

-30.04

-27.16

-26.70

-25.77

-25.00

-24.10

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

27

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Achieved or close to achieving the target

Countries Global Hunger

Index (%)

Marginal to moderate progress

Countries

Namibia

Kenya

Mali

Eritrea

Congo

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Lesotho

Côte  d’Ivoire

Global Hunger

Index (%)

-16.74

-15.89

-14.94

-13.79

-13.50

-11.97

-10.28

-3.21

-2.27

-1.23

Experienced setback

Countries Global Hunger

Index (%)

Madagascar -1.18

Note: For the GHI, – indicates an improvement in hunger while + shows that it has worsened relative to the situation in 1990.GHI<5 means that the

Global Hunger Index is less than 5 percent.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFPRI et al., 2013.

Progress in halving the proportion of undernourished people has been slow, with not a single developing region having reached the target in

2013. In 1990–2013, the progress from all developing regions was approximately 36.5 percent compared to 22.3 percent in Africa.

The performance of African countries is mixed.

Over 1990 - 2013, five countries reduced undernutrition by more than 50 percent (Tunisia,

Morocco, Mauritania, Angola and Rwanda); while six countries experienced setbacks (Madagascar,

Lesotho, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Comoros and Djibouti) (figure 1.11). Social inequality and the low educational and social status of women are major causes of child undernutrition. As mentioned above, climate change

(drought and flood) and conflicts are among the factors contributing to setbacks. Recurrent crises in the Sahel in recent years, arising from a combination of sporadic rainfall, locust infestation, crop shortages, and high and volatile food prices are bottlenecks to food and nutrition security.

29

The crisis affected the coping capacity of the already vulnerable groups and weakened their resilience to shocks. Also, livestock have become vulnerable to diseases because of inadequate feeding. Investment in agriculture and in accelerating vulnerable groups’ access to nutrient is crucial for moving forward on this target.

Halving the prevalence of underweight children under five years of age: still a daunting challenge

Achieving a rapid reduction in prevalence of underweight children is a serious challenge globally. Africa still lags behind most other developing regions in achieving this target. Africa (excluding

North Africa) only managed to reduce the prevalence of underweight children under five years by

14.3 percent between 1990 and 2012. In developing countries, however, the proportion of children under age five who are underweight declined by an average of about 24 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean (44.4 percent), Southeast Asia (43.8 percent) and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (40.0 percent) contributed substantially to global progress. In Africa, performance at the country level shows wide disparities. In 2013, five countries (Tunisia, Morocco,

Mauritania, Angola and Rwanda) achieved the target, whereas Mozambique was approximately

3.0 percentage points below the target. Fourteen countries were able to reduce the prevalence of underweight children by 25.0 to 45.0 percent,

29 IFPRI et al. (2013) for more information.

28

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.11: Progress in reducing undernutrition, 1990-2013 (%)

Egypt

Nigeria

Burkina Faso

Uganda

Sudan

Liberia

Ethiopia

Senegal

Cote d'Ivoire

Togo

Benin

Zambia

Namibia

Gambia

Guinea- Bissau

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Cameroon

Swaziland

Burundi

Eritrea

Congo

Niger

Chad

Kenya

Gabon

Guinea

CAR

Madagascar

Lesotho

DRC

Zimbabwe

Comoros

Djibouti

Tunisia

Morocco

Mauritania

Angola

Rwanda

Mozambique

Ghana

Malawi

Mauritus

Mali

Algeria

Botswana

Tanzania

-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10

Percentage change (1990-2013)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Note: A blank indicates less than a 5 percent progress.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFPRI et al., 2013.

and 29 progressed marginally (between 5.0 and

25 percent). Madagascar, Lesotho, Democratic

Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, Comoros and

Djibouti had setbacks. holds and urban centres.

30

Social protections can be used to accelerate access to nutrition among vulnerable children, especially in rural and urban areas.

Underweight prevalence in children could result from several factors, such as socio-economic conditions, and the fact that children in the poorest households and in rural areas are twice as likely to be underweight as those in the richest house-

30 See AUC, ECA, AfDB and UNDP (2013).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

29

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Conclusion

Africa must close the data gap

An important instrument for measuring poverty is household surveys. Poverty measured from either income surveys or consumption surveys cannot be computed accurately unless these surveys are effectively conducted. Out the 49 countries in

Africa (excluding North Africa), only 43 report data from these surveys; only 28 countries have conducted these surveys over the past eight years; and only 14 of them have conducted surveys after

2008.

31

Due to non-availability of these surveys, most of the poverty lines were derived through extrapolation, which might not be as accurate as expected. African governments and policymakers must invest heavily in the ‘data revolution’, particularly to improve the quality of statistics and information available to citizens. This also entails data disaggregation by gender, geography, income, disability and other categories in order to ensure that no group is ignored, which is needed for enhanced accountability and decision-making.

Stakeholders (governments, private sector, CSOs and development partners) should support this endeavour. Any country that fails to control its development statistics has indirectly lost control of its analytics. Africa must invest in measurement and monitoring of its development indicators.

Africa must revisit how poverty is measured for the continent to ensure the global indicators are not at variance with its expectations.

– an annual average increase of $0.002 per year.

Based on the current trend of an annual increase of 2.89 percent, by 2030, the average per capita income of the poor will be $1.27 – a narrow escape from poverty.

However, the recently released 2011 PPP of the

World Bank’s International Comparison Project has established the 2011 equivalent of the 2005 constant prices at $1.55 per day. Figure 1.12 shows the trajectory needed for the eradication of poverty in the continent by 2030. For every African to live above the poverty line by 2030, the current per capita income of the poor must increase at an annual rate of at least 6.0 percent. This could be challenging for Africa to achieve, but not impossible. This assumption should consider some important facts. First, an average growth rate of per capita income of the poor of at least 6.0 percent must take into consideration the chronic poor that are often hidden by such averages. Second, if the per capita income of the poor grows by that amount, there is no guarantee that their consumption will actually grow by a minimum of

6 percent over the period. And finally, the policy of the government should be consistently targeted at reducing inequality in each country.

The prospects of eradicating poverty in Africa by 2030

The CAP on the post-2015 Development Agenda identifies eradication of poverty by 2030 as the overarching goal. How realistic is this ambition?

Reaching this goal is challenging due to the continent’s poverty profile. In 2010, an average poor person in Africa (excluding North Africa) lived on

$0.71 per day, while only 20 percent of them lived on $1.00 a day; half of the extremely poor in China and India lived on between $1.00 and $1.25 per day. The African poor, around 200 million people, are below the poverty line. The average per capita income of the poor in Africa (excluding North

Africa) rose from $0.69 in 1990 to $0.71 in 2010

The projections from the Africa Progress Panel

(APP, 2014) also show that eradicating poverty in

Africa by 2030 could be ambitious. The prospect will be determined by policies adopted by governments, not past trends. For instance, a high growth (at least a 2 percentage point increase in per capita income per year) and the share of consumption allocated to the poorest 40 percent of the population to rise by 0.25 percent of

GDP per year is a favourable scenario that could lift more than half of the poor out of poverty by

2030 (about 163 million out of poverty). To reduce poverty to 3.0 percent by 2030, based on the current scenario with an unchanged distribution of income (as described above), the per capita income will have to grow at a rate of 7.5 percent.

Were the distribution to be steadily worsened

(i.e. 0.2 percent of GDP is reallocated in favour of the richest 10.0 percent), the economy would be required to grow at 11.0 percent per capita annually. An overarching strategy is commitment

31 See APP (2014).

30

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Figure 1.12: Past and future trends in eradicating poverty in Africa

2.0

$1.55

1.5

Gap to fill is $0.84

1.0

$0.69

$0.71

0.5

1990 2010

Note: *indicates poverty line equivalence in 2010 based on 2011 PPP equivalent of 2005 constant prices of $1.55.

Source: Author’s calculations using the baselines from Olito et al., 2013.

2030* to inclusive growth – where people serve as the means and end of the growth process. Promoting economic diversification in the context of structural economic transformation is key to ensuring that growth will have a substantial impact on human development. This shows how African governments handle accelerated, inclusive and diversified growth, and matters on distribution policies in achieving this ambitious target.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

31

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education

Africa’s initial conditions on educational attainment were one of the worst in the 1990s. The educational system in Africa during this period was not comparable in structure and quality with other regions of the developing world. It was only in

Africa (excluding North Africa) that net enrolment in primary education was less than 60 percent while other regions were more than 80 percent, with Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and South Eastern Asia above 90 percent. In spite of this, however, in 2011, the global MDG report rated Africa (excluding North Africa) as the region with highest improvement between 1999 and

2009. South Asia, North Africa and Africa (excluding North Africa) had a youth literacy rate of less than 70 percent in 1990 while Latin America and the Caribbean, South East Asia and East Asia had over 90 percent. Yet, the regions not performing well on youth literacy in 1990s including South

Asia, North Africa, Africa (excluding North Africa) made the most appreciable progress between

1990 and 2012. The analysis of this Goal should therefore be seen within the context of Africa’s initial conditions.

Compared to the rest of the world,

Africa has achieved spectacular leaps in primary education enrolment

Africa has achieved spectacular leaps in primary education enrolment between 1990 and 2011.

Over this period, Southern, East, Central and West

Africa together recorded a 24 percentage point increase in its net enrolment rate at the time when this progress was estimated at 17 points for

North Africa, 10 points for the developing countries and 1 for the developed world (figure 2.2).

The most significant progress under MDG 2 has been in the net primary enrolment. On the other hand, Africa continues to register the lowest completion rates in the world. Nonetheless, they are also they are also improving; 50 percent of the 46 countries with data recorded at least a 15 percent

32

increase in completion rates between 2000 and

2011, while 26 percent doubled their initial completion rate over the same period. The number of out-of-school children has been reduced from 40 million in 1999 to almost 22 million, which is contributing significantly to improving the primary school enrolment rates in Africa. Finally, gender parity has also significantly improved in primary level enrolment in Africa, although the inequities continue to prevail, e.g. only 23 percent of poor girls in rural areas completed primary education in 2010/2011.

32

Regardless of these dramatic achievements in access to education and gender parity at the primary level, the issues of education quality and relevance require focused attention. Additional investment is needed to enable the poorest and most vulnerable countries to catch up by improving classroom pedagogy and teacher professional development, and by removing the barriers to effective learning and strengthening institutional development. For this purpose, the promotion of

Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) combined with a greater involvement of the private sector are some of the most effective interventions that can allow Africa to make great progress in quality education outcomes.

Most African countries likely to meet the primary enrolment target

Primary education is central to inclusive growth, equity, social transformation and sustainable development. By improving literacy rates, human capital will be enhanced, which will lead to increased employability of the labour force. As a result of the massive investment in basic education, most countries have achieved universal primary enrolment; hence, the continent as a whole is expected to achieve MDG 2. Although slow, the

32 UNESCO, 2013.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education

Figure 2.1: Gap to net enrolment target in primary education, 2011

Tunisia

Rwanda**

Sao Tome and Principe**

Tanzania****

Egypt

Algeria

Malawi***

Zambia

Morocco*

Togo****

Uganda

Cape Verde

Cameroon**

Congo

Benin****

South Africa***

Mozambique*

Ethiopia

Botswana***

Namibia**

Angola**

Ghana*

Kenya***

Guinea*

Senegal

Mauritania

Guinea-Bissau**

Lesotho

Gambia

CAR

Mali

Burkina Faso*

Niger*

Cote d'Ivoire***

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria**

Djibouti*

Liberia

Eritrea

0 20 40

2011 Gap

60 80 100

Source: UNSD,July 2013.

Note: *2012, **2012, ***2009, ****2008.

net intake rate is slightly increasing, and the children enrolled at the right age in the first grade are likely to reach the last grade of primary school.

Globally, the level of educational participation and attainment is significantly improving. Twenty-five of the 39 African countries (i.e. 64 percent) with data have achieved net enrolment ratios of

80 percent or above, and are on track to achieve the MDG targets. These achievements have been made possible through sustainable public investment to increase participation while implementing retention-oriented actions (school feeding programmes, cash transfers, etc.) for girls and disadvantaged children. Morocco, for example, made huge progress, doubling its enrolment rate for primary school in a decade by focusing on attendance, quality of education and governance of education sector. The Government invested massively in school infrastructure together with

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

33

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education

Figure 2.2: Net Primary school enrolment rates by region

100

80

60

40

20

0

Africa, excluding North Africa North Africa

1990

Source: Author’s calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

2000

Developing regions

2011

Developed regions a dedicated support package to the most disadvantaged students. Also, Rwanda increased its net enrolment ratio in primary education from

86.6 percent in 2005/6 to 95.9 percent in 2010/11.

This was a result of the fee-free education for the first nine years of basic schooling, which was later extended to the first 12 years. The country’s commitment to continuous and increased investment in education infrastructure and the number of qualified teachers have also been instrumental.

According to the Ministry of Education (2013),

Ghana also improved its net enrolment rate by

81.7 percent in 2012 through a productive focus on pre-primary education, mandatory primary school expansion, improvement in the school feeding programme, and strengthening the capitation grant initiative.

Furthermore, only 11 countries – Burkina Faso,

Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti,

Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gambia, Liberia, Mali,

Nigeria and Niger – have net enrolment rates below 75 percent. Among these countries, remarkable performance in terms of effort and progress achieved was noted. For instance, enrolment rates during the 1991-2012 period increased by about 40 percentage points (from 25.3 to 64.5 percent) in Burkina Faso and in Niger (from 24.3 to

65.7 percent). Yet, the gap between the current achievement and the target by 2015 still remains very high in most of these countries (figure 2.1).

Africa falls significantly below all other regions in the developing world in equitable access to education (figure 2.2). In spite of progress on this target, several countries, such as Eritrea, Liberia,

Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria, are not likely to meet MDG 2 in 2015. This slow progress toward the achievement of the universal access to primary education in these countries in some cases could be linked to the decline of investments in basic schooling that has been receiving less attention from donors, governments and the media. With a 63.1 percent gap in net enrolment target in primary education in 2011 and a 13.1 percent primary school-aged population in the same year, Eritrea is still far from achieving the goal of universal primary education and needs tremendous resources to accelerate progress on this target. Post-conflict Liberia faces several challenges in improving its primary education system due to immense schooling needs and a budget shortage. Although primary education is free and compulsory, the cost of learning materials makes schooling unaffordable for some communities, and yet the Government cannot fund it alone.

Innovative funding and management mechanisms are therefore required to remove the challenges in access, low quality and poor education delivery.

Although unequal in terms of distribution of net enrolment in primary education, some emerging African countries continue to dominate the

34

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education

Figure 2.3: Primary school completion rate, male and female (%)

Chad

Eritrea**

CAR

Angola**

Niger*

Equatorial Guinea

Mozambique*

Uganda

Mali

Burkina Faso*

Djibouti*

Ethiopia

Cote d'Ivoire

DRC

Burundi

Senegal

Liberia

Gambia

Guinea-Bissau**

Guinea*

Lesotho

Rwanda**

Mauritania***

Congo**

Malawi

Madagascar

Nigeria**

Sierra Leone

Comoros****

Benin

Togo

Swaziland

Cameroon

Tanzania*

South Africa

Tunisia***

Algeria

Namibia

Cape Verde

Botswana***

Egypt

Ghana*

Morocco*

Zambia**

Sao Tome and Principe

Seychelles

0

30

60

1999 2011

90 120 150

Note: *2012-**2010-***2009-****2008

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

regional average and even reach the achievement level of the developed regions in 2011. As a reward for their long–term, consistent investment in primary education, Rwanda, Tunisia, Tanzania,

Sao Tome and Principe, Egypt, Algeria, Malawi and Zambia have raised their primary education attainment. These countries have made available qualitative and affordable primary education for all by adequately staffing and equipping schools both in urban and rural settings. The strong policy on early childhood development and cash transfers programmes to support the poorest families to send and keep their children in school are key drivers of progress in Egypt. The implementation of the National Charter on Education and Training, which started in 2000, is an important driver of progress in Morocco. This integrated framework of public action on education covers pre-primary to higher education, vocational education, training and non-formal education.

33

The enrolment policies adopted by African governments need to be accompanied by a consistent and sustainable allocation of resources to ensure optimum quality of the basic conditions for learning and teaching. To this end, the following drivers of change need to be enhanced: (i)  improving teachers’ professional

33 See UNESCO (2008) for the specific programmatic interventions in the education system in Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

35

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education development; (ii) upgrading curricula with a strong component on in-school assessment and systematic evaluation of learning achievements; and (iii)  providing adequate textbooks and other

Information and Communications Technology-

(ICT) based pedagogic materials while moving from a centralized decision-making process to a more decentralized and accountable schoolbased management system.

Dramatic improvements in primary education completion rate, but dropping out remains a challenge

Twelve countries – Algeria, Botswana, Cape Verde,

Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, Sao Tome and

Principe, Seychelles, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Zambia – have a completion rate above 80 percent.

Setbacks were experienced in Cape Verde, Central

African Republic, Egypt, Ghana and Mozambique

(figure 2.3). In expanding access, many countries have massively recruited unqualified teachers.

This had a negative impact on students’ learning achievement through a deterioration in education quality, therefore contributing to the rising trend of dropouts. Despite great progress in access to primary education, Africa (excluding North Africa) continues to register the lowest completion rate;

28 percent of countries for which data are available have a completion rate below 60 percent. Progress in completion continues to be extremely slow for some countries.

Chad, Eritrea, Central African Republic and

Angola are still recording a completion rate below 50 percent in primary school. These countries are either recovering from long conflicts or are facing the negative effects of the recent global financial crisis. Hence, they are facing the challenge of maintaining the current levels of expenditure while covering the additional costs of improving the quality of education. This undermines their possibility of catching up and jeopardizes their efforts in preparing their children to compete in a globalized world. To a large extent, the education system in most African countries is not equipping students with the adequate and relevant skills to meet present and future social and economic demands. Low primary education seriously affects youth employment in the continent because there are limited alternatives for young people who fail at school. In dropping out of school, youth are not equipped with the minimum skills in reading, mathematics or in entrepreneurship, which limits their chances to get a decent and rewarding job. This tends to perpetuate intergenerational poverty. Addressing this risk calls for special programmes to meet the needs of drop-out children.

Lack of capacity and weak gender policy frameworks: a constraint to girls completing primary education in most African countries

Many African governments have succeeded in drastically reducing the educational disparities between boys and girls at entrance and retention, but are still facing schooling gaps between the poorest and the richest households. Strategies implemented to reduce the gender gap include community mobilization, conditional cash transfer, curricula reforms, gender-sensitive teaching methods, measures against school gender-based violence, and affirmative action to enable girls’ full participation in school. Although this has contributed substantially to recent progress on equality, girls continue, while enrolled, to manage both educational and domestic tasks, often resulting in poor learning outcomes and early drop-out from the educational system. In 60 percent of the

45 countries for which data were available, boys surpassed girls in terms of the completion rate in primary education (UNSD, 2013).

Based on United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) data in 2013, only eight out of the 53 African countries plan

36

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education

Figure 2.4:  Literacy rates of 15-24 years old, male and female, 2011 (%)

Guinea**

Mali

Chad

Sierra Leone

Madagascar***

Senegal***

CAR

Nigeria****

Mozambique***

Cote d'Ivoire

Gambia

Mauritania

Malawi**

Angola

Guinea-Bissau

Tanzania**

Rwanda**

Togo

Sao Tome and Principe****

Cameroon**

Morocco

Lesotho***

Ghana**

Comoros

Uganda**

Burundi****

Egypt*

Eritrea

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Botswana

Mauritius

Tunisia**

Gabon

Equatorial Guinea

Cape Verde

South Africa

Seychelles

Libya

0 20

Men

40

Women

60

Both

80 100

Note: *2012 **2010 ***2009 ****2008.

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

to monitor inequality in learning. The evidence has shown that due to various constraints, girls perform worse than boys in many subjects. For instance, in Tanzania, “[T]he proportion of children

in grade 6 who achieved a minimum standard in reading in 2007 ranged from 80 percent of the poorest rural girls to 97 percent of the richest urban

boys.” To reverse this trend, policymakers have to initiate immediate and specific actions in favour of girls, especially those living in deprived settings. As stated in the 2013 Global EFA report, “[In]

Africa, excluding North Africa, only 23 percent of

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

37

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education poor girls in rural areas were completing primary education by the end of the decade”. If recent trends in the region continue, the richest boys will achieve universal primary completion in 2021, but the poorest girls will not catch up until 2086.”

Therefore, additional innovations and strategies are required to better understand the weaker performance of girls and to enable equitable access by all children to basic skills in reading, mathematics and science.

Progress in primary school enrolment underpins rising literacy rates

The high rate of primary school enrolment seems to have enhanced literacy in many African countries. This is especially true in countries where completion rates were high. Specifically, a group of 12 countries that had completion rates between 80 and 90 percent in 2011 achieved youth literacy rates above 90 percent. Almost 23 percent of countries (nine out of the 39 countries with data) are likely to achieve universal adult literacy by 2015, while 31 percent (12 out of 39) will be closer to the target. Almost 33 percent of African countries (i.e. Tunisia, Libya, Swaziland, Lesotho,

Botswana, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Seychelles,

Mauritius, Rwanda, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Cape Verde) were on good track to achieving the literacy rate target for15-24 year-olds and recorded a higher female than male literacy rate.

Although the average literacy rate for Africa

(excluding North Africa) was around 50 percent, the achievements in literacy were subject to regional variations (UNSD, 2013). In 2011, literacy rates were below 70 percent in 12 countries, seven of which were from West Africa region (Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, The Gambia, Guinea, Nigeria, Senegal and

Sierra Leone), two from Central Africa (Chad and

Central African Republic), one from East Africa

(Madagascar), one from North Africa (Mauritania) and one from Southern Africa (Mozambique) (figure 2.4). Three countries (Guinea, Mali and Chad) recorded one of the continent’s lowest literacy rates, below 50 percent. The female literacy rate is extremely low in these three countries and trends are not likely to improve in the short term.

Additionally, as part of the high demographic growth, 182 million adults were illiterate in

Southern, East, Central and West Africa in 2011

(UNESCO, 2013). This number is likely to rise in the coming decade and will hamper the potential of the workforce to constantly upgrade the skills required to place Africa among the most competitive and knowledge-generating continents. A paradigm shift is needed to increasingly improve the literacy rate in order to ensure that education and skills training match the needs of the national economies and prepare young Africans for the social and economic challenges of adulthood.

This requires stronger resources mobilization both at the international and country levels, and a substantial investments in data collection, analysis and evaluation to monitor educational progress.

Emerging lessons for accelerating progress on the education targets

An unprecedented national and international mobilization is needed to assure equitable access to basic education in countries that are not likely to achieve universal primary education (UPE) while improving the quality of instruction and training for vulnerable youth. Children who do not complete basic education have less of a possibility to obtain a rewarding job or income-generating prospects, and are more likely to become a societal risk by being recruited into illegal activities. The lessons learned from the various countries and previous investments highlight the need to: (i) support governments that have not yet achieved UPE to better reach the most deprived children, including those living in fragile states; (ii) invest in quality instruction and output improvement programmes that provide students with critical thinking, and life skills (early initiation to entrepreneurship, ability to communicate and live in a more connected and complex world);

(iii) support language and numeracy skills in early grades of primary education to enable learning and a solid foundation for acquisition in science and technology; (iv) provide out-of-school and drop-out adolescents with an opportunity to engage in training and work experience to improve their employability; and (v) promote evidence based-programmes through evaluation

38

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 2:  Achieve universal primary education and support to developing and harmonizing tools in assessing learning outcomes.

In light of the foregoing, the following priorities need to be considered:

i. Speeding up private sector investment in

education: Africa must build a vibrant private sector that supports the development of a dynamic primary education system and the acquisition of new skills and capacities by the labour force. The private sector can potentially provide additional resources for the expansion and improvement of the quality of education, especially at the secondary and tertiary levels. The potential areas of government intervention include: (i) providing incentives, access to credit, land and facilities as well as an appropriate supply of infrastructure to support investments in education;

(ii) formulating sound private investment policy aimed at developing school management skills, particularly in countries with a vibrant private sector; and (iii) in weaker performing countries, establishing a liberal and attractive regulatory framework that is conducive to profitable returns on investment while setting in place quality control mechanisms to monitor primary education outcomes. through innovative use of ICT and pedagogical research; and (iv) promoting sustainable and adequate investment in innovation to improve the quality of mathematics, science, and technology education at the primary level while supporting national policies that aim at providing universal access to affordable

ICT devices, content and connectivity, as well as a greater involvement of community in the daily management of schools.

iii. Increasing access to quality early childhood

care and development (ECCD): Through a holistic approach, special support should be provided to countries committed to design and implement comprehensive policies focused on child development, socialization and learning from birth to entry into primary school. Indeed, it has been demonstrated that early childhood is a critical time of remarkable brain development that lays the foundation for later acquisition and learning. Providing the child with the appropriate ECCD services improves performance in the first years of primary school and contributes to reduce the risk of repetition and school drop-out.

ii. Enhancing science, technology and innovation (STI) to extend access and improve quality

education: Rapid technological progress offers cost-effective alternatives to traditional forms of delivering education including through distance learning, virtual classes, teacher training and communities of practice. To harness the talents and ingenuity of African people, quality science and technology education at the primary level is necessary. The major areas of focus will include: (i) providing technical assistance to countries to develop national strategies and build capacity for using technology and science within the overall education system; (ii) speeding up and expanding efforts to improve science and technology education by improving learning and pedagogical methods; (iii) enhancing mobility in education delivery, learning and training

iv. Upgrading educational management and

planning capacities: Relevant, accurate and timely data are critical to an effective management of primary education. All the areas for which reform is advocated require strong and professional management teams and reliable information systems. Key priority areas include strengthening the capacities of the

Ministry of Education (MOE) in policy analysis, formulation and implementation. Areas of priority interventions include: (i) improving the collection and analysis of basic education statistics to inform future policies; (ii) strengthening systematic regional assessments to gauge the progress in schooling and in learning outcomes across the most vulnerable and fragile states; and (iii) supporting regional networks and communities of practice for education managers and planners to share knowledge and skills in order to improve and increase access and retention in primary schools.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

39

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

The initial conditions in Africa with respect to gender equality and women’s empowerment were relatively lower than the rest of the developing regions. For instance, in Africa, gender parity in primary school enrolment was around 80 percent compared to 96.0 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 95.0 percent South East

Asia. A similar trend is observed in the share of women in paid non-agricultural sector employment, which was 23.0 percent in Africa (excluding

North Africa) compared to 37.0 percent in Latin

America and the Caribbean, and 36.0 percent in

East Asia. With respect to the share of seats held by women in national parliaments, the initial conditions were poor in North Africa compared to other regions. Women held only 3.0 percent of seats in national parliaments in 1990, whereas the percentage was three to four times higher in Latin

America and the Caribbean, and South East Asia.

In terms of policies, regulatory environment and legislative frameworks, Africa lagged behind in

1990 relative to the rest of the world. Most of the laws and policies supporting gender equality and women’s empowerment were already in place in

Latin America and the Caribbean, whereas many

African countries started building the requisite institutions much later. Gender-based violence, early marriage, and female genital mutilation, which had been reduced in most parts of the developing regions, were endemic in Africa in the 1990s and still remain serious concerns in the continent. Policies for creating equal opportunities for girls and women are relatively new in most African countries. All of these issues, which are taken for granted in many other developing regions, take substantial time of most African governments and stakeholders, thereby reducing time and resources devoted to other substantive gender issues in the continent.

40

Africa’s performance in narrowing gender disparity in primary school education

With respect to primary school education, although Africa has yet to reach the parity level

(figure 3.1), for the 1990–2011 period, North Africa’s improvement rates were second to South Asia, while Africa excluding North Africa was fourth after South Asia, North Africa and East Asia. The two groups in Africa were among the four developing groups that were able to increase the parity level in primary school by more than 10 percentage points over the past three decades.

34

  North

Africa raised its parity level from 0.82 to 0.94, and the rest of Africa, from 0.83 to 0.93 between 1990 and 2011. But improvement in parity level in

Africa as a group is better than those in Southeast

Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and West

Asian average. However, over the past two decades, both Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean have achieved parity in primary education. The rapid progress in South Asia has been linked to several factors such as incentive structures and partnerships between communities, NGOs and the private sector. For instance, the use of cash transfers for poor families to help educate their children in Bangladesh and payment of stipends to girls for school attendance in Pakistan have been very helpful.

35

The ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary school continues to improve in many African countries

(figure 3.2). Of the 49 African countries with data,

18 have achieved gender parity,

36,37

two countries had a gender parity index of less than 0.8 (Chad

34 South Asia (32.43%), North Africa (14.63%), East Asia (14.29%) and Africa (excluding Africa) (12.05%).

35 See World Bank 2013 for more examples of drivers of progress in South Asia.

36 According to UNESCO (2012), gender parity is achieved when the Gender Parity Index is between 0.97 and 1.03.

37 Out of these 18 countries, the following have sustained parity since the 1990s (Botswana, Gabon, Kenya, Lesotho, Namibia,

Seychelles and Tanzania).

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.1: Gender parity in primary education across regions, 1990 and 2011

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

World Developing

Regions

North

Africa

Africa

(excluding

North Africa)

Latin

America and the Caribbean

East Asia

1990 2011

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

South

Asia

South East

Asia

Western

Asia

Developed

Regions and Central African Republic), and 28 countries had an index between 0.8 and 0.97 (figure 3.3).

According to UNESCO (2012), an index of more than 1.03 reflects an imbalance against boys. To this end, Senegal, Mauritania and Malawi must step up efforts to address the ensuing imbalance against boys’ enrolment in primary school.

The level of improvement on this indicator varies markedly across countries. Four countries made an astonishing improvement between 1990 and

2011( 70.00 to 86.9%) – Guinea, Benin, Guinea

Bissau and Chad. Although Chad is yet to reach the target, its accelerated progress is commendable and should be encouraged. Ten countries improved gender parity in primary schools by 30.0 to 50.0 percent; 14 countries by between 10.0 and

30.0 percent; and 11 countries by between 0.0 to

10.0 percent. Ten countries from Southern African countries (e.g. Lesotho, Botswana, Swaziland, and

Namibia) are making efforts to correct the educational imbalance against boys, which stems from historical trends in these countries. Countries that actually regressed are Angola, Eritrea, Cape Verde,

Libya, South Africa and Gabon. These countries, in addition to countries that are still struggling to reach the target, must design and implement policies and programmes to bridge the gender gap in primary school enrolment.

Several policy and institutional innovations are driving progress, but challenges abound in tackling repetition rate and early marriage. Eliminating school fees has had a similar effect in increasing overall enrolments and reducing gender differences. For instance, student enrolment rose by

68 percent in the first year of implementing the policy in Malawi and Uganda and by 22 percent in

Kenya. In Malawi, the abolition of education levies contributed to bringing more girls than boys to school and reducing the gender gap in primary education. The implementation of a similar policy in Lesotho facilitated a significant influx of overage boys into the educational system, which had been difficult to achieve in the past decades.

African governments have also mandated and enforced participation in schooling through compulsory education laws. Universal education laws can now be found in most African states. Such laws, usually combined with large infrastructure and human resource investments to enhance service delivery, have brought more children into school, not only in Africa, but across the world

(World Bank, 2012b; UNESCO, 2014).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

41

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.2: Progress on gender parity in primary school enrolment

Equatorial Guinea***

Rwanda

Sao Tome and Principe

Zambia

Tunisia

Algeria

Nigeria++

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Malawi

Mozambique

Liberia

Comoros

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Djibouti

Burundi

Uganda

Morocco

Ethiopia

Niger

Sierra Leone

Togo

Mauritania

Mali

Senegal

Burkina Faso

Gambia

Chad

Guinea-Bissau++

Benin

Guinea

Lesotho

Angola++

Eritrea

Botswana+

Swaziland

Namibia++

Cape Verde

Libya

South Africa+

Gabon

Egypt

Kenya+

Congo

Cameroon

Seychelles

Madagascar

Tanzania++

0.0

0.3

0.6

1990 2011

0.9

Note: Start and end years are different for some countries: for instance end years + 2009 and ++ 2010.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

1.2

1.5

The focus of Guinea on eliminating the parity gap between towns, strong advocacy in Uganda, and strong policy actions on girls’ education in Tanzania, Zambia and Sudan are all important drivers of progress towards gender parity. Locating schools closer to children is an important driver in Burkina

Faso, while promoting girl-friendly schools and establishing scholarships for girls have produced positive results in many countries, including

Sudan. Bottlenecks to progress are found at the

42

family level (e.g. prevailing patrimonial attitudes), at the school level (e.g. sexual harassment and inadequate sanitation facilities for girls) and at the national level (e.g. weak commitment of political leadership). The Gender Parity Index is higher among high-income groups than among low-income groups. Other challenges include high grade repetition, early marriage, sexual harassment and violence both in and outside the edu-

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.3: Summary of gender parity performance in primary school

2 countries had less than 0.8, 4%

18 countries achieved parity, 37 %

29 countries had parity index of 0.8-0.97, 59%

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, 2013.

cation setting.

38

In addition to addressing these challenges, increasing the proportion of national budgets devoted to education (especially primary schools), encouraging policies that keep schoolage children in schools longer, and enhancing the quality of education call for urgent policy actions in the continent.

Variation in gender parity in secondary education across countries and reforms

The 2011 data available on gender parity in secondary education enrolment for 43 countries shows that 12 countries achieved parity as of

2013.

39

Nine countries – Lesotho, Cape Verde, Sao

Tome and Principe, Rwanda, Algeria, South Africa,

Seychelles, Botswana and Namibia – have surpassed the target parity level of 1.03 (figure 3.4).

Although most of the above countries have struggled over the past decade to achieve gender parity, they have yet to address the bias against boys’ secondary education. To this end, countries with a disparity against boys in enrolment need to scale up action to reverse the bias. Egypt and The

38 For more information on the drivers of, and bottlenecks to, progress in primary school parity, see UNESCO (2012), WEF (2012) and ECA et al. (2012).

39 These countries are Lesotho, Cape Verde, São Tomé and Príncipe, Tunisia, South Africa, Seychelles, Mauritius, Botswana, Algeria,

Swaziland, Rwanda and Mauritius.

Gambia are very close to achieving gender parity in secondary school. Twelve countries have also achieved appreciable progress during this period with a parity index that ranges between 0.80 and

0.94, including Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi,

Uganda and Mauritania. However, in eight countries, the Gender Parity Index is still lower than 0.7

(i.e. less than seven girls to ten boys in secondary school) – Democratic Republic of the Congo,

Chad, Togo, Central African Republic, Benin,

Guinea, Niger and Angola. Concerted efforts should be made to identify the main bottlenecks to achieving gender parity in secondary schools in these countries and to mobilizing the needed political commitment to address them.

Most countries that have achieved gender parity are from Southern Africa, while most with the greatest improvement in gender parity are from

West Africa, i.e. seven out of the ten – The Gambia,

Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal, Niger, Togo and Mali.

Fourteen countries improved in terms of gender parity by 20-50 percent, while eight improved by 1.0–19.9 percent; another eight countries had setbacks (figure 3.5). Most of the countries with worsening parity scaled up efforts to reverse the bias against boys, including Botswana, Lesotho,

São Tomé and Príncipe, South Africa and Namibia.

Serious setbacks were experienced in Angola,

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

43

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Table 3.1: Level of improvement on primary school parity, 1990-2011

More than 70%

Countries % change

Between 30.0 and

50.0%

Countries % change

Between 10.0 and

30.0%

Countries % change

From 0. to 10.0%

Countries % change

Experienced setbacks

Countries % change

70.45

Morocco 39.71

Tunisia 10.34

Egypt 0.00

Lesotho -20.49

Chad

Guinea-Bissau

Benin

Guinea

70.91

74.00

Ethiopia

Niger

85.11

Sierra Leone 40.91

Togo

40.00

40.00

42.19

Algeria

Nigeria++

Central African

Republic

Cote d’Ivoire

11.90

15.19

15.87

16.90

Kenya+

Congo

Cameroon

Seychelles

1.03

1.06

Angola++

Eritrea

-11.96

-11.70

1.16

Botswana+ -10.28

2.04

Swaziland -10.00

Mauritania 43.24

Mali 44.26

Ghana

Malawi

17.65

46.58

Mozambique 19.74

Madagascar

19.54

Tanzania++

Equatorial

Guinea***

2.08

3.03

4.26

Namibia++

Cape Verde

-9.17

-5.15

-3.03

Senegal

Burkina

Faso 47.62

Liberia 21.33

Libya

South

Africa+ -3.03

Gambia 49.28

21.43

Rwanda

Sao Tome

5.10

and Principe 5.43

Gabon -2.02

Comoros

Democratic

Republic of the Congo 22.54

Zambia 7.61

Djibouti

Burundi

Uganda

23.29

25.00

27.50

Note: Start and end years are different for some countries: Start years * 1991, **1992, ***1993, ****1994 and *****1999; and end years + 2009, ++ 2010

Source: Authors’ based on UNSD 2013, July 2013.

Comoros, Eritrea, Kenya and Madagascar. The high cost of secondary education, early marriages, inadequate female teachers, and poor quality of education are impediments to progress.

Gender disparity is also manifested through the variation in school life expectancy between boys and girls. School life expectancy (from primary to secondary schools) in Africa is higher for boys than girls. Between 1998 and 2009, it improved from 5.7 to 8.0 years for girls and from 6.3 to 8.5 years for boys. The high dropout rate – mostly of girls – in many countries also accounts for disparity in schools.

40

Performance in gender parity targets at the tertiary education level has not changed from The

40 See World Bank (2010), UNESCO (2012) and WEF (2012) for details on information challenges facing secondary education and gender parity in secondary schools.

44

MDG Report 2013: Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals. Of the 36 countries with data for 2010, eight (Tunisia,

Algeria, Namibia, Cape Verde, Lesotho, Mauritania,

Botswana and Swaziland) achieved gender parity in tertiary education, while nine (Chad, Democratic

Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic,

Congo, Eritrea, Guinea, Ethiopia, Niger and Benin) had very low parity (Gender Parity Index of less than 0.40). In Chad, the Gender Parity Index was less than 0.20, and in 19 countries, it was between

0.40 and 0.97 (ECA et al., 2013). Guinea, Tanzania,

Benin and Mali showed the most improvement.

But seven countries regressed – Djibouti, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Comoros, Namibia and Lesotho.

Tunisia and Algeria should emulate Lesotho and

Namibia to address bias against boys, while Chad,

Democratic Republic of the Congo and Central

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.4: Progress on gender parity in secondary enrolment, 1990-2011

Chad

Togo (1990-07)

Central African Republic

DRC (1992-10)

Benin (1999-11)

Guinea

Niger

Angola (1998-09)

Mali

Burundi

Comoros (1999-05)

Burkina Faso (1994-11)

Eritrea (1993-11)

Djibouti (1992-11)

Liberia (1999-11)

Uganda (1990-09)

Cameroon

Mauritania

Congo (1990-04)

Morocco

Ethiopia (1991-11)

Mozambique

Tanzania (1990-12)

Nigeria (1990-09)

Kenya (1999-09)

Ghana

Malawi

Senegal

Madagascar (1990-09)

Gambia (1990-10)

Egypt (1990-10)

Swaziland

Mauritius (1990-05)

Tunisia

Algeria

Rwanda

South Africa (1990-07)

Botswana

Seychelles (1991-11)

Sao Tome and Principe (2003-11)

Cape Verde

Namibia (1990-07)

Lesotho

0.0

0.3

0.6

1990 2011

0.9

1.2

1.5

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

African Republic must scale up efforts to eliminate bias against girls.

Across most developing regions, the rate of improvement corresponds to level of education – the highest was in tertiary, followed by secondary and primary levels. As indicated in figure 3.6, this is not always the case for Africa (excluding North

Africa). Achieving gender parity at the primary and secondary levels provides a good opportunity for women to attend tertiary institutions.

Gender parity in tertiary enrolment is higher than in secondary school enrolment in Algeria, Cape

Verde, Lesotho, Namibia and Mauritius. The historical migration of male youth to the South African mining industry helps in explaining Lesotho’s situation.

Resounding success will be achieved when these policies are implemented simultaneously. Policymakers should design strategies that promote overall income growth, eliminate institutional

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

45

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.5: Gender parity improvement in secondary schools, various years

Angola (1998-09)

South Africa (1990-07)

Eritrea (1993-11)

Kenya (1999-09)

Comoros (1999-05)

Namibia (1990-07)

Lesotho

Botswana

Swaziland

Mauritius (1990-05)

Sao Tome and Principe (2003-11)

Madagascar (1990-09)

Cape Verde

Congo (1990-04)

Nigeria (1990-09)

Seychelles (1991-11)

Ethiopia (1991-11)

Tanzania (1990-12)

Burundi

Djibouti (1992-11)

Morocco

DRC (1992-10)

Cameroon

Liberia (1999-11)

Egypt (1990-10)

Rwanda

Algeria

Tunisia

Benin (1999-11)

Central African Republic

Ghana

Burkina Faso (1994-11)

Uganda (1990-09)

Mali

Mozambique

Togo (1990-07)

Malawi

Niger

Senegal

Mauritania

Guinea

Chad

Gambia (1990-10)

-20 0 20

Note: Countries without brackets have consistent data for 1990-2011.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

40 60

Percentage change (1990-2011)

80 100 120 bottlenecks (both supply and demand sides) and establish relevant laws that make education compulsory. Incorporating skill acquisition into the formal schooling system further enhances returns to education, which enhances patronage.

46

Increasing women’s share in wage employment in the nonagricultural and formal sectors

The African leaders’ call for structural economic transformation in the continent is more relevant than ever, especially given the challenges associated with overdependence on primary commodities for revenues, exports and livelihoods. In addition to diversifying its economy away from agricultural informal sectors, Africa must enhance

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.6: Percentage change in the Gender Parity Index at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels, 1990-2011

150

120

90

60

30

0

-30

World Developing

Regions

Northern

Africa

Africa

(excluding

North Africa)

Latin

America and the Caribbean

Primary

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, July 2013.

Eastern

Asia

Secondary

Southern

Asia

South-Eastern

Asia

Western

Asia

Tertiary

Developed

Regions its productivity

41

to promote quality growth.

42

Achieving this requires a significant increase of women employed in the formal sector, especially in the secondary (industrial) and tertiary (services) production system. The increase in real labour income for women will have multiplier effects on aggregate demand through enhanced household purchasing power, as has recently been the case in Latin America.

43

The main challenge of monitoring progress on this target is the very limited data. Despite the increase in women’s share of paid employment outside of the agricultural sector, from 35.3 to 39.6 percent over the

1990–2011period (United Nations, 2013a), African women’s employment in the non-agriculture sector is lower than in other regions.

44

Performance of North Africa lags behind other developing regions; for instance, it is around 20.0 percentage

41 These sectors are characterized by low productivity, low incomes and poor working conditions.

42 Quality growth promotes rapid reduction poverty and inequality and is rich in jobs.

43 See ECLAC and ILO (2012).

44 Since 2000, countries with consistent data on the percentage of women in non-agriculture wage employment, are few – but the number is slowly increasing.

points below East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (ECA et al., 2013). The rest of Africa lags behind Latin America and the Caribbean, and East Asia (figure 3.8). Of the 32 countries with recent data (from 2000 to 2011), 16 had more than 30 percent of women in non-agriculture wage employment (including South Africa, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Namibia, Botswana and Cape Verde), and five had less than 20 percent

(Senegal, Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Guinea; figure

3.7). This indicator is vital for policy decisions and planning. To this end, national statistical authorities should build requisite capacity to be able to generate, manage and analyse data on the gender breakdown of employment activities at the national and sub-national levels.

Men and women have equal talent, but society imposes several restrictions on women’s opportunities and pay in the labour market in most parts of the world, including Africa. These restrictions limit the number of women who can work as employees, be self-employed and be employers as well as lower their wages. There is evidence that this has a serious negative impact on labour pro-

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

47

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women ductivity, income per capita and aggregate production. The impact of gender gaps in the labour market varies considerably across geographical regions and countries. The total income loss varies from 27.0 percent in Middle East and North

Africa, and 19.2 percent in South Asia, to 10.4 percent in the European Union, and 8.5 percent in Africa (excluding North Africa) (Teingnier and

Cuberes 2013).The significant negative impact of the gender gap in effective labour

45

on economic output and output per worker is further substantiated by Bandara (2012).For instance, a 1 percent increase in the gender gap in effective labour reduces output per worker by 0.43-0.49 percent in African countries and by 0.29-0.50 percent in

Africa (excluding North Africa). This translates into an annual economic loss exceeding $60.00 billion for Africa excluding North Africa.

Structural and cultural impediments are key to understanding the high gender gap in the labour market

The MDG Report 2013: Assessing Progress in

Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals explains the prevalence of the high gender gap, which also explains why there are more women in vulnerable employment: (i) women’s work may be undervalued because their economic lives follow different patterns from men; (ii)  women tend to have a lower reservation wage than men; (iii) gender bias in wage-setting institutions weakens their pay prospects; and (iv) women are often disadvantaged by individual workplace practices. As in many African countries, Mozambican women’s labour market participation and access to particular jobs are constrained and shaped by patriarchal power and by the bargaining of women in existing patriarchal systems.

46

Any policy that tackles these structural impediments will substantially reduce economic losses associated with gender gaps in the labour market.

Most African countries are yet to benefit from robust structural transformation, i.e. from agriculture to industry and services. But for Algeria,

Tunisia, Libya and South Africa, the fairly low and declining contribution of agricultural employment coincided with the rising share of industrial employment. Nevertheless, overall, women in

Africa have lower employment opportunities in the industrial sector than men. The proportion of women employed in services is higher than that of men, whereas the opposite holds for industry

(table 3.2). The varying female–male employment ratio in industry and services could indicate lower entry barriers in services (e.g. limited skill requirements or lower discrimination against women) than in other sectors.

Wage disparity

47

is extremely high in many African countries

Only in Egypt, Uganda, The Gambia, Ghana, Malawi,

Zambia Burundi, Botswana and Benin do women earn wages of 75 percent or more of men’s wages for doing similar jobs. In Mauritania, Algeria and

Côte d’Ivoire, women earn less than 60 percent of what men earn (figure 3.9). Countries need a combination of minimum wage policies and policies designed to address female wage discrimination.

As evident in Anyanwu and Augustine (2012), promoting more secondary education for girls translates into greater opportunities for women in the labour markets.

Promoting access to decent jobs among women requires a combination of actions, ranging from macro-economic policies and regulatory frameworks for promoting a higher rate of employment growth to labour market policies and targeted interventions directed at disadvantaged groups of young people and women. This also includes: generating productive and decent jobs; improving the functioning of the labour market; enhancing more access to secondary education and above for women; facilitating their access to higher skilled jobs; subsidizing social services to enable more women to have more time to participate in remunerative economic activities; and addressing cultural practices that discriminate against girls’ education and women’s equal access

45 Effective labour refers to labour with requisite education, as defined by Bandara (2012).

46 See Oya and Sender (2009) for more information on Mozambique.

48

47 Wage rates for men and women for similar work.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

40

30

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.7 Share of women in paid non-agriculture sector, 1990-2011

50

20

10

20

10

0

0

Developing Regions Northern Africa

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UN, 2013a.

Africa

(excluding North Africa)

1990 2000

Latin America and the Caribbean

2005 2011

Eastern Asia Southern Asia

Figure 3.8 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

50

40

30

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD data, July 2013.

to inheritance and factors of production, such as land and finance.

Africa is making steadier progress in increasing the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament than other regions. Almost all regions of the developing world (except East Asia) made steady progress on the number of seats held by women in national parliaments between 1990 and 2012. North Africa and Southern Asia made the most remarkable improvement during the period, followed by Africa (excluding North Africa) and Latin America and the Caribbean, while there were setbacks in Eastern Asia (figure 3.10).But there is an urgent need to increase the quality of women’s participation in the legislative functions and policy formulation. In 2012, only Latin

America and developed regions surpassed Africa’s

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

49

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Table 3.2: Employment shares by sector and gender, selected years, 2000-12

Agriculture Industry Services

2000 2007 2011 2012 2000 2007 2011 2012 2000 2007 2011 2012

Both genders

East Asia 47.7

Latin

America

20.3

North Africa 32.4

66.4

Southern,

East, Central and West

Africa

Men

East Asia 41.4

Latin

America

25.1

North Africa 30.3

65.3

Southern,

East, Central and West

Africa

Women

East Asia 55.2

Latin 12.4

America

North Africa 39.9

67.8

Southern,

East, Central and West

Africa

38.9

17.0

30.9

63.1

34.3

21.5

28.3

62.4

44.5

10.2

39.6

63.9

33.4

15.8

27.2

61.8

30.1

20.8

25.5

61.1

37.5

8.6

32.9

62.6

33.7

15.7

29.8

62.0

31.3

20.7

29.0

61.8

36.7

8.4

32.3

62.2

23.4

21.6

19.5

7.9

26.3

26.3

21.8

9.6

19.9

13.8

11.1

5.7

27.2

22.5

21.1

8.5

30.1

28.2

24.0

10.6

23.7

13.9

11.6

6.1

29.8

21.7

24.0

8.7

32.6

27.6

26.8

10.7

26.4

13.2

14.6

6.4

29.2

21.7

22.4

8.7

31.2

27.6

24.6

10.6

26.8

13.2

14.9

6.5

28.9

58.0

48.1

25.7

32.2

48.6

47.9

25.1

24.9

73.8

49.0

26.5

33.9

60.4

48.0

28.4

35.6

50.3

47.7

27.0

31.8

75.9

48.9

30.0

36.8

62.4

48.9

29.5

37.3

51.6

47.8

28.2

36.1

78.2

52.5

31.0

37.1

62.6

47.8

29.3

37.5

51.7

46.3

27.6

36.5

78.3

52.8

31.3

Note: Data for 2012 are preliminary projections.

Source: ILO, 2013.

achievement. Between 2005 and 2012, Southern

Asia and Africa (excluding North Africa) made the fastest progress (figure 3.10).

Progress on this target looks promising at the country level. The number of countries that experienced setbacks fell from 18 in 2012 to seven in

2013. Since the 2003 parliamentary election in

Rwanda, which resulted in the Lower House of

Parliament recording 48.8 percent female members of Parliament, the country has continued to be one of the global trail blazers on this target.

Rwanda now ranks first in the world in percentage of women in the national parliament. Ten coun-

50

tries have reached the target of at least 30 percent women in the national parliament – Rwanda,

Seychelles, Senegal, South Africa, Mozambique,

Tanzania, Uganda, Angola, Algeria and Burundi

(figure 3.11). Senegal and Algeria reached the target in 2013. Tunisia, Ethiopia and Lesotho are very close, with less than four percentage points from reaching the target. Countries with the fastest growth since 1990 are Rwanda, South Africa,

Senegal, Seychelles, Algeria, Ethiopia, Burundi,

Mozambique, Tunisia, Lesotho and Mauritania.

The number of women in national parliaments dropped in Guinea Bissau, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, The Gambia and Cameroon.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.9: Female to male wage ratio in Africa

Mauritania

Cote d' Ivoire

Algeria

Chad

Mauritius

Morocco

Namibia

South Africa

Ethiopia

Madagascar

Mozambique

Kenya

Mali

Cape Verde

Burkina Faso

Senegal

Tanzania

Cameroon

Lesotho

Nigeria

Benin

Botswana

Zambia

Burundi

Malawi

Ghana

Gambia

Uganda

Egypt

0.0

0.2

0.4

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the World Economic Forum, 2012.

0.6

0.8

1.0

Drivers of and impediments to progress in women’s representation in national parliaments

Explicit adoption of quota systems or legal

frameworks: The explicit adoption of legal frameworks for a fixed minimum number of women representatives in parliament, i.e. the quota system (e.g. in Uganda, Mauritania and Egypt), plays a crucial role. As at 2007, more than 20 African countries have adopted mandatory or voluntary quotas. For instance, Rwanda and Tanzania have adopted constitutionally mandated quotas, while

South Africa and Mozambique have voluntary political party quotas (UNDESA et al., 2007). In some of these countries, such as in Rwanda and

South Africa, progress in women’s representation was achieved through strong political commitment and the adoption of affirmative action.

However, although some countries have set quotas within their electoral laws, they were not effectively implemented (e.g. Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad and South Sudan).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

51

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.10: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments across regions of the world, various years

25

20

15

10

5

0

Developed Regions Developing Regions North

Africa

1990

Africa, excluding

North Africa

2000

Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Economic Forum, 2012.

2005

Latin America and the Caribbean

2012

Eastern Asia Southern Asia

The major role of political parties in facilitating the pace and depth of gender inclusiveness in party politics at the local, regional and

national levels: An important strategy in creating a climate for enhanced political participation of women is involving them in non-elective posts, such as ministers and top-level managers of both public and private organizations. For instance, there has also been substantial improvement in the number of women ministers in the continent.

In 2012, in seven countries (Benin, Cape Verde,

Lesotho, Nigeria, South Africa, The Gambia and

Uganda), at least 40 percent of ministers were women. Political parties and political leaders in Algeria, Morocco, Ethiopia, Mauritania and

Zambia must create an enabling environment for more women to be given the opportunity to be ministers and to hold strategic positions in society. An important strategy that could further strengthen and empower women politically is the creation of a ‘women’s wing’ at the political level.

This approach, as in South Africa, has boosted women’s numerical strength and contributions at the political level. electoral systems are in place across Africa – each with its strengths and weaknesses. For instance, the South African proportional representation

(PR) system provides that communities be represented based on the number of people in the areas, whereas the Tanzanian constituency-based system only allows equal representation per constituency. Nigeria and Seychelles have adopted a hybrid system. For instance, in Nigeria, the Lower

House is based on proportional representation per state, while the Upper House is based on equal representation per state. Concerted effort must be made to ensure that the electoral system is favourable to women. Establishing a separate ballot system in Rwanda is a commendable innovation that other countries could emulate.

Mobilizing women voters: Mobilizing women voters and the provision of civic education programmes to women at the grassroots level receives adequate attention in few Africa countries. Mass mobilization of women for elections not only provides a basis for more women to be elected, but also for their candidate to have maximum political support.

Strengthening the electoral systems to support

quality participation of women: A variety of

52

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 3.11: Percentage of seats held by women in national parliaments, various years, 1990 and 2013

Egypt

Comoros

Nigeria (2001-2013)

Congo

Gambia

Botswana

Benin

DRC

Kenya

Equatorial Guinea

Mali (1997-2013)

Ghana (1998-2013)

Cote d'Ivoire

Liberia (1997-2013)

Togo

Zambia

Sierra Leone (1997-2013)

CAR

Niger

Swaziland

Djibouti

Somalia

Cameroon

Guinea-Bissau

Chad (1997)

Zimbabwe

Burkina Faso (1997-2013)

Gabon

Libya (2006-2013)

Morocco

Madagascar

Sao Tome and Principe

Mauritius

Cape Verde

Eritrea (1997-2013)

Mauritania (1997-2013)

Malawi

Namibia

Sudan (former) (1997-2013)

Lesotho (1997-2013)

Tunisia

Ethiopia (1997-2013)

Burundi (1999-2013)

Algeria

Angola

Uganda

Tanzania (1997-2013)

Mozambique

South Africa

Senegal

Seychelles

Rwanda

0 10 20 30

1990

Note: Reference points are in parentheses for countries whose reference point is not 1990.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD data, July 2013.

2013

40 50 60

Expanding the participation of women in politics has not led to enhanced development

outcomes in the continent. Contrary to popular belief, increasing the number women in politics does not correlate with lower levels of corruption or better development results. Democratically transparent politics, which correlates with low levels of corruption, could create an enabling environment for more women to participate in politics (UNIFEM and UNDP, 2008). Efforts must be geared towards enhancing women’s contribution to development effectiveness and results, particularly in promoting development-oriented policies and programmes that address the needs of the vulnerable groups in society. It is critical to build the capacities of elected women, increase the quality of their participation, and strengthen

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

53

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Box 3.1: Numbers matter, but it is the quality of women’s representation in

Parliament that is critical

Women’s political participation and representation is central to achieving full dividends of democracy. When women are marginalized in politics, issues that concern them, children and youth tend to be compromised at the political decision- making level. When women are equal partners in decision-making, and their experiences considered and their voices heard, national and development policies are more inclusive and have a broader influence and impact. This makes a difference in people’s lives, which supports the need to have more women in local and national parliaments.

Most countries that have crossed the 30 percent threshold of women in national parliaments have benefitted from the introduction of electoral gender quota systems and political representation in order to increase the number of women in their national parliaments. Empirical evidence tends to show that in these countries, women are accorded a political voice and have succeeded in influencing development policy. The enhanced voice of women in parliament in Rwanda (64% of seats held by women), South Africa (42%), Mozambique (39%), Angola (34%), Senegal (43%), Uganda (35%), Seychelles

(44%), Tanzania (36%), Burundi (31%) and in Cameroon (31%) has led to the adoption of new laws pertaining to issues relating to women and girls, such as Acts on gender-based violence, family law and land rights, reproductive health and education. On the other hand, the low percentage of seats held by women in the Kenyan Parliament hindered the passing of the Kenyan Sexual Offences Bill (2005), a law that came into force as the Sexual Offences Act (2006), and which sought to protect women and girls from sexual offences including child marriage. Similarly, the passage of the Polygamy Law in

Kenya in 2014, a law that allows men to take more than one wife without consulting or getting consent from the spouse/s, highlights the importance of having a critical mass of women’s representation in national parliaments to pass laws that are beneficial to block laws that are harmful to women and children.

But having more women in parliament does not necessarily lead to substantive development. While having a critical mass in terms of the numbers is vital, the challenge for countries that have reached the required threshold is to move beyond the numbers and consolidate this gain to ensure substantive representation. This can be achieved when the female members of parliament are more organized through women’s caucuses and training to express women’s, girls’ and children’s issues better in order to influence decision making and development policies in Africa. Efforts to build the capacity of women parliamentarians to contribute cognitively to parliamentary debates influence the executive arm of government and assist in building institutional capacity is vital to improving quality of women participation in parliament and in politics.

Source: African Woman and Child Feature Services, 2010. “Beyond Numbers: Narrating the Impact of Women’s Leadership in Africa”.

their voice to influence development policies and actions in favour of women, children and youth.

Weak implementation of national gender pol-

icies and strategies: African countries are signatory to many global and continental declarations on gender including the Solemn Declaration on

Gender Equality in Africa. Most countries do not implement the key elements of these declarations as well as their national gender policies (e.g.

Zambia and Democratic Republic of the Congo)

(UNDESA et al., 2007). Most countries see gender policies and strategies as mere principles that do not require national action plans or coercive and corrective measures to implement them.

Countering violence and discrimination against women require stronger political com-

mitment: Africa needs to particularly focus on addressing discrimination against women’s reproductive rights. Reproductive and sexual health remains one of the weakest areas of human rights in Africa. The continent’s unmet contraceptive needs, high levels of unsafe abortion, high incidence of early or coerced marriages, deteriorating access to healthcare services, prevalence of sexual violence and sexual exploitation, pandemic levels of HIV/AIDS, and laws and customs that discriminate on the grounds of sex and sexual orientation all testify to a failure to realize reproductive and sexual health of women.

48

African women face social and cultural barri-

ers: The obstacles that African women face extend to their participation in public life, economic and legal limitations, traditional gender roles, family

48 See Odusola (2013) for a detailed analysis of challenges facing maternal health in Africa.

54

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women responsibilities that exert high demands on their time, cultural and religious taboos, and lack of education and access to resources.

Conclusion

Africa is making considerable progress on this goal, with many countries achieving outstanding performance, especially on gender parity in primary school education and number of seats held by women in national parliaments. Promoting better access for women to paid non-agriculture jobs remains a challenge, but progress is being made. Cultural practices (including inequitable inheritance practices in a few countries, early marriages and household power dynamics), low women’s education (especially from secondary education), low economic opportunities for women and limited political participation continue to impede progress in meeting this goal.

For sustained progress, it is imperative that cultural transformation be aimed at reversing the negative attitudes in societies towards gender equality and women’s empowerment. Policy changes should be directed towards: addressing discrimination against girls and women in education systems; strengthening the economic rights and opportunities for women; encouraging their increased participation in productive and remunerative economic activities: and strengthening women’s voice in decision-making at all levels of society. Economic and social policies that respond better to the needs of men and women, such as adopting affirmative action policies and strategies, reforming customary laws that discriminate against women and girls, and devoting more human and financial resources to enforcing and implementing such laws are crucial to meeting this goal. Similarly, countries with disparity between girls’ and boys’ education should tackle this issue as a policy priority. Violence and discrimination against women require stronger political commitment, and strong implementation of national gender policies and strategies, as well as electoral provisions that favour women’s participation in politics are pivotal.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

55

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality

Child mortality has been falling in Africa since

1990. The average annual rate of decline in child deaths reached 4.1 percent for 2005-12, up from

0.8 percent in 1990-1995 (UNICEF, 2013b). Accelerated efforts in reducing U5MR in Africa have enabled the continent to achieve good progress in reaching this target. Continent-wide, U5MR reduced from 177 deaths per 1,000 live births in

1990 to 98 deaths in 2012. This translates into a

45 percent reduction against the target of the two-thirds reduction. Yet, the continent is still the region with the highest U5MR globally (figure 4.1), accounting for almost half of the total child deaths before the age of five. This is related to the educational attainment of mothers, their level of access to health systems, income, nutrition and the prevalence of HIV.

A recently published article in The Lancet journal indicated that only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4 (The Lancet 2014a).

The annualized rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from 6.8 to 0.1 percent. Ninety-nine of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in Africa

(excluding North Africa), had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-2013 than during

1990-2000. This analytic report also disclosed that, compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in Southern, East, Central and

West Africa, led to 1.4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0.9 million and 2.2 million fewer deaths, respectively.

In 2012, Egypt, Ethiopia, Liberia, Malawi, Tanzania and Tunisia met this U5MR target (figure 4.2).

Algeria, Cape Verde, Eritrea, Libya, Madagascar,

Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, South

Sudan and Uganda reduced their U5MR and are very close to the target (60 percent or more). The increase in the U5MR during this period in Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana, however, is largely attributed to HIV/AIDS-related deaths.

In spite of some progress on child survival in the continent, 3.2 million of Africa’s children did not

Figure 4.1: Under-five mortality rates by region

200

150

100

50

0

Africa, excluding

North Africa

South Asia Western Asia Eastern Asia Developed Regions Developing Regions

1990 2012 2015 Target

Source: United Nations, 2013a.

56

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

World

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality

Figure 4.2: African countries’ progress in reducing the under-five mortality rate

Seychelles

Mauritius

Libya

Botswana

Algeria

Tunisia

South Africa

Cape Verde

Swaziland

Namibia

Zimbabwe

Morocco

Lesotho

Egypt

Gabon

Kenya

Congo

Sao Tome and Principe

CAR

Somalia

Uganda

Benin

Equatorial Guinea

Zambia

Burkina Faso

Ethiopia

Guinea-Bissau

Chad

Nigeria

Angola

Mozambique

Guinea

Malawi

Liberia

Mali

Sierra Leone

Niger

Djibouti

Comoros

Mauritania

Ghana

Sudan

Cameroon

Senegal

Togo

Eritrea

Rwanda

Cote d'Ivoire

Madagascar

Burundi

Tanzania

Gambia

DRC

0 50 100

1990

150

2012

200

Target

250 300 350

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, November 2013.

reach their fifth birthday in 2012. As a result, Africa accounts for almost half of all child deaths globally

– up from 29 percent two decades ago (UNICEF,

2013a). Most children died as a result of easily preventable infectious diseases. Concerted effort should be placed in scaling up investment in child health and providing effective social protection to children in poor households especially in terms of free health services, as in Benin, Ghana, Nigeria,

Malawi and South Africa (Odusola, 2013b).

Africa’s infant mortality rate fell from 90 deaths per

1,000 live births in 1990 to 54 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2014, a 39 percent decline on average for the whole continent. Eighteen countries reduced their infant mortality rates (IMRs) by more than half (65%) between 1990 and 2012, including

Egypt, Malawi, Liberia and Tunisia. Twenty-six countries registered reductions of between 20 and 49.9 percent. Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, which registered increases in

U5MR between 1990 and 2012, also registered

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

57

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality

Table 4.1: Status of progress in under-five-mortality rates in African countries, 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Achieved (6 countries)

Egypt

Ethiopia

Liberia

Malawi

Tanzania

Tunisia

On track (11 countries)

Algeria

Cape Verde

Eritrea

Libya

Madagascar

Morocco

Mozambique

Niger

Rwanda

South Sudan

Uganda

 

 

Remarkable progress (8 countries)

Benin

Burkina Faso

Gambia

Guinea

Insufficient progress (25 countries)

Angola

Burundi

Cameroon

Central African

Republic

Chad

Comoros

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mali

Sao Tome and

Principe

Senegal

Zambia

 

 

 

 

 

Congo

Côte d’Ivoire

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Ghana

Namibia

Nigeria

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Africa

Sudan

Togo

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setback (4 countries)

Botswana

Lesotho

Swaziland

Zimbabwe

 

 

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD 2013.

increases in their IMRs during the same period.

In 2012, Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of the

Congo, Somalia and Central African Republic had the highest infant mortality rates, all registering rates above 100 deaths per 1,000 live births.

Much slower progress in reducing neonatal mortality: Africa still accounts for one third of neonatal deaths

The Lancet report (The Lancet, 2014a) indicated that globally, although the number of children under five who die has almost been halved since

1990, the progress in the reduction of neonatal deaths has been much slower than that of children over four weeks of age (average annual reduction of 2.1% vs. 3.4%). The proportion of neonatal deaths among children under five is now 44 percent, compared to 38 percent in 2005.

For instance, in 2012, 2.9 million newborn babies died within 28 days after birth – 1 million on the first and only day of life – and there were an additional 1·2 million stillbirths shortly before or during labour. The report also mentions that some coun-

58

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014 tries made substantial progress, most notably

China and Egypt (both 60% reduction in newborn deaths) and Cambodia (51%). The highest neonatal mortality rate (32 deaths per 1,000 live births in

2012) occurred in Africa (excluding North Africa), which also accounts for approximately one third of under-five deaths that occurred during the neonatal period and for 38 percent of global neonatal deaths (UNICEF, 2013a).

The preventable and treatable most common causes of neonatal mortality

The most common reasons for neonatal deaths include: complications of prematurity (34%); intrapartum-related complications (24%); sepsis, meningitis, or pneumonia (22%); and congenital abnormalities (9%). A detailed progress report for Africa cannot be presented here due to lack of data. Improving quality and access to primary health care throughout pregnancy and birth greatly enhances neonatal survival. Such improvements entail proper antenatal care during pregnancy in order to detect and treat anaemia,

80

60

40

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality

Figure 4.3: Expected vs. actual under-five mortality rate (U5MR)

Expected Actual

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, 2013.

Figure 4.4: Expected vs. actual infant mortality rates (IMRs) in Africa

100

20

0

Actual

Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNSD, November 2013.

Expected Linear (Actual) malaria, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia and folic acid supplementation for pregnant mothers.

Main drivers of neonatal mortality

– inequalities

In most LICs and MICs, a substantial survival disadvantage remains for babies born into poorer households with a lower educational level. Data over a decade (Lancet, 2014b) indicates that in five countries (Cameroon, Nigeria, Malawi, Mozambique, and Uganda), the difference in the NMR between the top and bottom of the wealth distribution was reduced by more than two neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births per year. By contrast, wealth-related inequality increased by more than

1.5 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births per year in Ethiopia and Cambodia.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

59

MDG 4: Reduce child mortality

Table 4.2: Neonatal mortality rate and neonatal deaths as a share of under-five deaths, 1990 and 2012

 

Regions

Developed region

Developing regions

North Africa

Africa, excluding North Africa

East Asia

Southern Asia

Western Asia

World

Neonatal Mortality Rate

1990

8

36

30

45

24

50

27

33

2012

4

23

13

32

8

31

13

21

Neonatal deaths as a share of under-five deaths

1990 2012

52 56

36

41

26

46

43

58

34

60

40

41

37

53

53

44

Relative percentage increase

 

8

19

41

31

30

33

29

19

Source: Calculations from UNSD, November 2013.

Mixed progress on immunization rates

Immunization remains one of the most successful public health initiatives, averting between two and three million child deaths from diseases such as measles, tetanus and diptheria worldwide (UNICEF, 2013a). The average immunization coverage in Africa increased modestly from 62 percent in 1990 to 68 percent in 2011. However, with the exception of four countries (Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia and Somalia), in 2011, immunization coverage in African countries was more than

50 percent, and almost half of them had an immunization coverage of 90 percent or more.

Conclusion

Overall, African countries have made substantial progress towards achieving MDG 4. In particular,

Africa (excluding North Africa) has seen a faster decline in its U5MR, with the annual reduction rate doubling between 1990-2000 and 2000-11.

Curbing neonatal mortality is critical for improving child survival. Some of the proven, cost effective and high-impact interventions are: skilled care at birth and emergency obstetric care; management of preterm births, including antenatal corticosteroids for lung maturation; basic neonatal care; neonatal resuscitation; early identification and antibiotic treatment of serious infections; inpatient care for small and sick new-borns; and prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Prioritization and integration of these interventions in the service delivery modalities are crucial for children living in the poorest households; social protection mechanisms including health insurance are needed to improve access to high-impact interventions.

60

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Maternal health is a useful indicator in assessing not only women’s health status, but also the accessibility, sufficiency and effectiveness of a country’s health service system. However, assessing progress toward this target continues to present a major challenge due to the paucity of data.

The world falls short of reducing the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by three quarters, but the rate of decline was faster in 2005-2013 than in 1990-2005. Globally, a substantial reduction in maternal deaths has been registered – from

523,000 deaths in 1990 to an estimated 289,000 deaths in 2013. The global MMR declined by 45 percent from 380 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births in 1990, to 210 in 2013, yielding an average annual decline of 2.6 percent. The annual decline in global MMR between 2005 and 2013 (3.3 percent) was faster than the decline between 1990 and

2005 (2.2 percent). All regions except North America experienced a decline in MMR between 1990 and 2013 (table  5.1). The highest reduction was registered in Europe (66%) followed by Asia (59%),

Oceania (48%), Africa (47%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (39%).

Africa still has the highest burden of maternal deaths despite a 47 percent decline between 1990 and

2013

Major progress has been achieved in reducing the MMR in Africa. In 2013, the number of women dying from pregnancy and child birth-related complications dropped by almost half since 1990.

Africa has reduced its MMR from 870 deaths per

100,000 live births in 1990 to 460 in 2013, a 47 percent reduction, and a 2.7 percent average annual percentage change between 1990 and 2013.

All regions of Africa have made progress in reducing the MMR (figure 5.1). North Africa has made the most progress by reducing MMR by 57 percent between 1990 and 2013, followed by East

Africa (56 percent), West Africa (46%), Central

Africa (38%) and Southern Africa (20%). However,

Central Africa and West Africa still have the highest

MMR, at above 500 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013.

However, Africa accounts for the largest share of global maternal deaths, at 63 percent. The

Table 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across regions, selected years, 1990-2013

Region

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

North America

Oceania

World

1990 1995 2000 2005

870

320

35

140

11

160

380

840

290

26

120

11

140

360

750

240

21

110

13

130

330

620

190

16

93

16

110

270

510

140

15

88

26

92

230

2010

460

130

12

85

26

84

210

2013 Percentage change in the

MMR between

1990 and 2013

-47

-59

-66

-39

136

-48

-45

Note: MMR estimates show maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.

Source: WHO, 2014.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

61

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Figure 5.1: Trends in estimates of the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) across African regions, various years

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

North Africa East Africa Central Africa West Africa Southern Africa

1990

Notes: MMR estimates show maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.

Source: WHO, 2014.

2000 2005 2013 continent has the most number of countries with the highest MMRs globally. In 2013, of the

18 countries with the highest MMR (above 500) globally, 16 are in Africa. Sierra Leone is estimated to have the highest MMR at 1,100, followed by

Chad (980), Central African Republic (880), Somalia (850), Burundi (740), Democratic Republic of the Congo (730), South Sudan (730), Côte d’Ivoire (720), Guinea (650), Liberia (640), Niger (630),

Cameroon (590), Guinea-Bissau (560), Nigeria

(560), Mali (550) and Malawi (510). Associated with socio-economic and spatial inequality, lack of access to skilled birth attendants, lack of access to contraceptives and high adolescent birth rates, this figure is higher among poor and uneducated women with little income and/or living in remote rural areas death in Africa is 1 in 45, which is the highest in the world (WHO, 2014).

The most common causes of maternal mortality are severe bleeding after child birth, infections, high blood pressure during pregnancy and unsafe abortions. In Africa, most of these deaths are preventable. The Campaign on Accelerated

Reduction of Maternal, Newborn, and Child

Mortality in Africa (CARMMA), initiated by African leaders, serves as a critical advocacy platform for the improvement of maternal, newborn and child health. CARMMA has been launched by 40 of the

54 African Union Member States and has motivated national ownership of significant maternal, newborn, and child health initiatives.

On average, there are more pregnancies among women in developing countries than women in developed countries, and their lifetime risk of death due to pregnancy is higher. The probability that a 15- year old woman will eventually die from a maternal cause is 1 in 3,700 women in developed countries compared with 1 in 160 in developing countries. The adult lifetime risk of maternal

Ethiopia is one of the countries that have recently reported progress in reducing maternal mortality using low-cost impact interventions. The use of the community health extension programme that provides health care services in rural areas makes progress possible (AUC, 2013). The programme has succeeded in bringing services closer to the people, particularly rural dwellers who historically have had challenges in accessing health services

62

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

and who have contributed more to the MMR than urban dwellers.

The rapid expansion of health and related infrastructure is also contributing to progress in several

African countries. For instance, the implementation of the Conditional Grant Scheme (CGS) in

Nigeria is leveraging huge financial and human capital resources from the federal, state and local governments to provide over 100,000 pro-poor high impact projects. This includes: provision of

19,422 water facilities, 6,005 health facilities and

152,164 health equipment supplies; rehabilitation of 89 health institutions; and recruitment of 75,103 health workers (Box 5.1). This has contributed to the recent progress recorded in maternal health. For instance, in 2012, the number of women who died during child birth reduced dramatically to 350 (per

100,000 births) against 545 and 800 recorded in

2008 and 2004 (FGN and NBS, 2013; OSSAP, 2013).

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

The presence of skilled health personnel at birth is critical to reduce maternal mortality. Of 52

African countries for which data are available, eight reported the proportion of births attended by a skilled professional at 90 percent or above, and 16 recorded fewer than 50 percent of births attended by skilled health personnel (table 5.2).

Ethiopia, Niger and Sudan have the least access to skilled health attendants in the continent. The

South Sudan response to the critical bottleneck to accelerating maternal health is commendable.

Having recognized that only around 10 percent of births are attended by trained personnel, the

Government decided to increase the number of midwives and nurses. This has resulted in rehabilitation and expansion of four national health training institutes with increased capacity to manage midwifery and nursing education programmes; over 200 midwifery students and 70 nursing students are pursuing studies at these institutes (Box 5.2).

Table 5.2: Births attended by skilled health personnel in Africa (%)

 

 

 

 

Births attended by skilled health personnel (below 50 percent)

Ethiopia (2011)

Niger

10.0

Births attended by skilled health personnel (50-75 percent)

Central African Republic

(2010)

17.7

Mozambique (2008)

53.8

55.3

Sudan (former) (2010)

Chad (2010)

Eritrea (2002)

Somalia (2006)

Nigeria (2008)

Guinea-Bissau (2010)

Kenya (2009)

Madagascar (2009)

Guinea (2007)

Liberia (2007)

Zambia (2007)

Angola (2007)

Tanzania (2010)

Mali (2006)

 

 

 

 

21.0

Gambia (2010)

22.7

Uganda (2011)

28.3

Togo (2010)

33.0

Côte d’Ivoire (2012)

38.9

Burundi (2010)

43.0

Mauritania (2007)

43.8

Lesotho (2009)

43.9

Comoros (2000)

46.1

Sierra Leone(2010)

46.3

Cameroon (2011)

56.6

57.4

59.0

59.4

60.3

60.9

61.5

61.8

62.5

63.6

46.5

Equatorial Guinea (2000) 64.6

47.3

Senegal (2011) 65.1

48.9

Burkina Faso (2010)

49.0

Zimbabwe (2011)

65.9

66.2

Ghana (2011)

Rwanda (2010)

Malawi (2010)

Morocco (2011)

68.4

69.0

71.4

73.6

Births attended by skilled health personnel

(above 75 percent)

 

 

 

 

Cape Verde (2005)

Egypt (2008)

Democratic Republic of the Congo

(2010)

Sao Tome and Principe (2009)

Namibia (2007)

Swaziland (2010)

Benin (2012)

Gabon (2000)

South Africa (2003)

Djibouti (2006)

Congo (2012)

Botswana (2007)

Tunisia (2006)

Algeria (2006)

Mauritius (2003)

Libya (2008)

77.5

78.9

91.0

92.9

94.1

94.6

94.6

95.2

98.5

99.8

80.4

81.0

81.4

82.0

84.1

85.5

 

 

 

 

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

63

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Box 5.1: Accelerating progress towards the achievement of the health and related

MDGs in Nigeria through the community-based Conditional Grants Scheme

The Conditional Grants Scheme (CGS) under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is a flagship programme introduced in 2007 to accelerate progress towards achieving the MDGs in Nigeria. The scheme, jointly implemented by the federal and state governments, is guided by an implementation manual prepared by all stakeholders, including development partners, which allows for transparency, accountability and effective monitoring. The scheme leverages high financial and human capital resources from the federal, state and local governments. It has funded over 100,000 pro-poor high impact projects, including 19,422 water facilities, 6,005 health facilities, and 152,164 health equipment supplies. Through the CGS,

89 health institutions have been rehabilitated; 5,103 health workers recruited; 1,714 classrooms blocks constructed; and

79,067 school desks and benches supplied. The Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Scheme, deployed through the vehicle of the CGS, provided grants to 106,857 households as well as 5,302 agriculture-base cooperatives. Beneficiaries of the

CCT Scheme, managed by community-based facilitators, are from underserved rural communities and their attendance to four antenatal clinic visits is mandatory; those with children must ensure their immunization. The implementation of the

CCT Scheme is supported by the MDGs Village Health Workers initiative, which establishes a sustainable link between the community and available health services.

The implementation of the CGS is facilitating the acceleration of many MDG targets. The proportion of the population who are undernourished has been reduced to 8.5 percent in 2011 against the target of 9.7 percent target for 2015; gender parity in primary and secondary school enrolments was achieved in 2012; and the HIV/AIDs prevalence has been halted and is being reversed. Appreciable progress has also been made in other areas: the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) fell from 201 per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 94 in 2012; the infant mortality rate (IMR) also declined from 100 to 61 in the same period, and the maternal mortality rate (MMR) decreased from 1,000 per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 350 in 2012.

The CGS has strengthened ownership of the MDG Acceleration Framework and strengthened partnership across stakeholders. However, their implementation is confronted with inadequate budgetary allocation, slow implementation rates, limited coordination and lack of political will in some states at the sub-national level. More effort is required to effectively implement the MDGs across the three tiers of government.

Source: OSSAP, 2013; FGN and NBS, 2013.

Poor access to contraceptives contributing to high adolescence births

Expanding access to family planning is an effective strategy for saving women’s and children’s lives and improving their health. Family planning empowers women and households to make decisions about whether and when to have children as well as the desired family size. In 2010, globally, 63 percent of women aged 15-49 years who were married or in a consensual union were using some form of contraception. However, it is evident that most African countries are unlikely to achieve contraceptive prevalence rates – i.e. in over 75 percent of African countries, these rates are below 50 percent.

Compared to other regions of the world, Africa has the lowest proportion of women using modern contraceptive methods. Southern African countries recorded the highest use of modern

64

contraceptives followed by North Africa, while

Central Africa and West Africa recorded the lowest use in 2012 (table 5.3). The very low contraceptive use in Central and West Africa is an issue of policy concern. Between 2008 and 2012, the proportion of married women using modern contraceptives rose in East and Southern Africa, stagnated in

Central and Western Africa, and declined in North

Africa (table 5.3).

The low rate of contraceptive use in Africa is a factor in explaining high adolescent birth rates. The adolescent birth rate is considered high if more than 100 out of every 1,000 women of ages 15 to

19 give birth. Available data for African countries through various years show that more than half of African countries have an adolescent birth rate higher than 100. Since early marriages remain high among African communities, this practice is one of the major contributing factors to the high adolescent birth rates in Africa.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Box 5.2: Transforming lives: Expanding midwifery capacity in South Sudan and deployment of communication technology in health service delivery in Ondo State

(Nigeria)

A shortage of skilled health personnel is an issue of serious concern in South Sudan. The South Sudan Household Survey

(2010) reveals that skilled birth attendants (SBA) attend to only 10 percent of births in the country, antenatal coverage stands at 16 percent, and contraceptive prevalence rate is less than 3.5 percent. In order to increase the numbers of professional midwives and to strengthen midwifery services, midwifery education programmes needs to be scaled up through technical and financial support to four national health training institutes. For example, the College of Health recently received technical assistance in revising and upgrading the midwifery curricula to international standards in order to provide diploma education for nurses and midwives. They provided scholarships to 37 South Sudanese nationals to pursue midwifery education in three colleges in Uganda and in one privately managed health training institute in South Sudan.

Through this initiative, over 200 midwifery students and 70 nursing students are pursuing studies at national health training institutes (AU, 2013b).

The Safe Motherhood Programme (also called, the Abiye Programme) was introduced to address maternal health challenges in Ondo State, Nigeria. Prior to its establishment in 2009, Ondo State was rated as one of the most burdened states by maternal mortality in Nigeria. Before the pilot project launched in the Ifedore Local Government, only 16 percent of pregnant women who registered with government facilities eventually delivered in them. The Abiye Programme aims at reducing child mortality by 50 percent and increasing facility use by 60 percent in 2011. At the point of registration on this programme, the pregnant woman is assigned a physician, a specially trained community health worker called the

Health Ranger, to effectively monitor her. Twenty-five pregnant women are assigned to one health ranger who visits them regularly, detects high risks, carries out birth plan, embarks on complications readiness, and educates and advises on family planning.

The registered pregnant woman receives a mobile phone linked to a toll-free user group to ease communication with the physician. Any registered pregnant woman is treated and looked after throughout the duration of her pregnancy and until about two months after delivery, with all costs borne by the State Government. With the toll-free phone, the pregnant women have access to their physician 24 hours a day. Ambulances-on-tricycles are distributed and stationed in villages and communities to provide first aid treatment to expectant mothers before they can access the Abiye Centre. Before the programme commenced in 2009, less than 100 pregnant women registered for antenatal clinics in public clinics. In 2009, the number of women who registered increased to 346; in 2010, 2,791; and in 2012, 2,427 – all of which were 100percent successful. Due to its success of the programme, all the local governments in the State replicated it in January 2013.

Its success was due to the involvement of community leaders in mobilizing and raising awareness among their people, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in providing materials to hospitals and awareness raising, and the community health volunteers (Odusola, 2013).

Three North African countries – Algeria, Libya and

Tunisia – registered the lowest adolescent birth rate (less than 10) on the continent, whereas Chad,

Niger and Central African Republic recorded the highest adolescent birth rate (more than 200).

This can be partly explained by the disparity in use of contraceptives.

Antenatal care coverage requires improvement

Regular contact with doctors, nurses or midwives allows health personnel to manage pregnancies and provide a variety of services, such as: treatment of hypertension; tetanus immunization; intermittent preventive treatment for malaria and distribution of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (in malaria-endemic settings); prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV; micronutrient supplementation; and birth preparedness, including information about danger signs during pregnancy and childbirth (UNICEF, 2013a).

Although the percentage of women receiving antenatal care at least once during pregnancy was about 81 percent over the 2005-2012 period, the figure dropped to around 55 percent for the recommended minimum of four visits or more globally (WHO, 2013). In Africa, less than

50 percent of women receive the recommended minimum four visits.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

65

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Table 5.3: Percentage of married women aged 15-49 using modern methods and annual percentage change by region, 2008 and 2012

 

Developing world

Africa

East Africa

Central Africa

Southern Africa

West Africa

North Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

2008

56

23

20

7

54

9

55

62

64

2012

57

24

27

7

58

9

45

6.2

67

Source: Singh, 2012.

Table 5.4: Women whose need for modern methods of contraceptives is not met, by region, 2008 and 2012 (%)

 

Developing world

Africa

East Africa

Central Africa

Southern Africa

West Africa

North Africa

Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

2008

27

54

63

82

25

74

25

23

25

2012

26

53

54

81

17

74

32

21

22

Source: Singh, 2012.

Africa still faces the highest unmet need for family planning

Unmet need for family planning is high in Africa compared to other developing regions. In 2012,

Central African countries recorded the highest unmet need for family planning, followed by West

Africa, while Southern Africa and North Africa recorded the lowest (table 5.4). Box 5.3 shows how proactive involvement of men in advocacy for and awareness raising on reproductive health services is generating remarkable success in

Niger. The coherence of the ‘School for Husbands’ with socio-cultural and religious values and needs

66

of a community makes it easy to replicate in many other settings. The initiative is promoting a better understanding between husbands and wives on reproductive health matters and helping to put an end to certain taboos and misconceptions.

Conclusion

Based on Africa’s MMR in 1990, the continent has made remarkable progress in reducing maternal mortality over the past decade; however, most countries will not be able to achieve the 75 percent reduction in maternal mortality relative to their 1990 levels despite the various initiatives

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 5: Improve maternal health

Box 5.3: Accelerating progress on maternal health in Niger through ‘School for

Husbands’ on reproductive health

In Niger, 74 percent of women are illiterate and about 60 percent of girls are married before the age of 15. The use of family planning is low, with a contraceptive prevalence rate of only 5 percent, and the rate of maternal death is high. Patriarchy and men’s dominance and attitudes are major obstacles to women taking advantage of reproductive health care. In 2007, the Government of Niger in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) established the ‘School for

Husbands’ initiative (Ecole des Maris) with the aim of transforming men into allies for promoting women’s reproductive health, family planning and behavioral change towards gender equality.

The project is anchored on a spirit of volunteerism and community participation involving health authorities, health agents, national non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and married men from local communities (25 years or older). Each school meets twice a month to discuss and analyse specific challenges related to reproductive health in the community, to propose solutions and raise awareness on the issues. Initially, 11 pilot schools were set up in two districts in the Zinder region.

In 2010, the strategy was expanded to all six districts of this region, and as of 2011, a total of 131 schools were operational in Zinder. In another region, Maradi, 46 schools were established in 2011.

Results obtained in three years are impressive. The coherence of the Ecole des Maris with socio-cultural and religious values and needs of a community makes it easy to replicate in many other settings. It led to enhanced political and financial commitment and country ownership, using the national budget line to procure reproductive health commodities, and in the first year, more than $1 million was mobilized from in-country partners for reproductive health commodities. Behavioral change among men has proved extremely transformative: men are provided with a better understanding, thus contributing to ending certain taboos and misconceptions. According to the figures from the Bandé Integrated Health Centre, use of family planning services has tripled and childbirths attended by skilled health personnel have doubled. The rate of antenatal visits rose from 28.62 percent in 2006 to 87.30 percent in 2010. Post-natal consultations in the Bandé community in Zinder increased from 13 percent in the first trimester of 2009 to 40 percent in 2011. The success recorded has led to the construction of public lavatories for health centres, building of houses for midwives, and men’s participation in awareness raising during vaccination campaigns and other health activities. The Governments of Burkina Faso and Guinea have expressed interest in replicating the programme as a way to build demand for family planning services. To sustain progress, governments should address how to ensure a continuous motivation of the husbands and to transfer to the next generation of husbands.

Source: UNFPA, 2012.

at the national, regional and global levels. Most maternal deaths are caused by conditions that could be treated successfully with access to adequate emergency obstetric care services and with concerted efforts in addressing socio-cultural challenges such as early marriages. Several countries have initiated innovative practices that are accelerating progammes. Increased coverage of skilled birth attendance and delivery in facilities adequately resourced for emergency obstetric care are essential for prevention of maternal deaths. Continued promotion of policies to reduce anaemia and malnutrition, prevent malaria in pregnancy, provide calcium and micronutrient supplementation, discourage early marriage and reduce unsafe abortion will also reduce the risk of life-threatening complications of pregnancy.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

67

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

In spite of the challenging initial conditions, Africa has made appreciable progress since 1990. In

1990, Africa had the highest burden of HIV and malaria of all regions of the world, accounting for more than half of global incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with these diseases.

The HIV prevalence rate in Africa excluding North

Africa alone, for example, was 2.7 percent in 1990, while other regions of the world had prevalence rates of less than 0.3 percent (UNSD, 2005). Today, although Africa still has the highest burden of these diseases in part because of the high initial burden, it has achieved impressive progress towards achieving two of the three targets under

MDG 6. Good gains have been made in reversing the spread of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (TB), evidenced by the downward trends in incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with these diseases. Between 2000 and 2012, Africa (excluding North Africa) averted 67 percent of malaria cases (337 million) and 93 percent malaria deaths

(3.08 million), compared to other regions that registered progress of no more than 13 percent

(WHO, 2013).

A reversal of the HIV/AIDS spread, but access to treatment falling short of universal levels

In West, Central, East and Southern Africa, the upward trend in the incidence and prevalence of

HIV/AIDs among adults has been reversed. The incidence, which measures the number of new

HIV infections per year per 100 people aged 15-49, had been rising before 1995; it then reached the turning point of 0.85 percent in that year and decreased sharply to 0.32 in 2012. With lower rates of new infections, the prevalence followed suit with a downward trend starting from 2000 as the indicator decreased slightly from 5.8 percent in that year to 4.7 percent in 2012 (figure 6.1). As a result, the number of AIDS-related deaths among adults and children has been on the decline since 2005, dropping from 1,800,000 in 2005 to

1,200,000 deaths in 2012.

However, sustaining the gains is proving to be a challenge since treatment, especially for HIV, although improved still falls short of universal levels. Additionally, risky sexual behaviour in some

African countries threatens to reverse the gains in combating HIV, and in turn on TB, as the link between HIV and TB becomes increasingly evident. Thus, protecting the gains in reducing the spread of HIV is important for protecting those made in reducing TB.

Malaria control efforts have yielded good results among African countries, especially through the use of insecticide-treated bednets and artemisinin-based combination therapies. However, as

Africa still shoulders the largest part of the global malaria burden, a move towards and focus on elimination is key for combating malaria.

68

The drop in the incidence rates was observed in all four subregions mentioned above, albeit at different paces, ranging from 0.09 percentage points in

West Africa to the remarkable performance of 0.89 percentage points in Southern Africa. As regards

North Africa, where the presence of the pandemic has always been low, both the incidence and the prevalence remained unchanged between 1990 and 2012, stagnating at around 0.01 percent and

0.1 percent, respectively.

The appreciable results on HIV/AIDS in Africa as a whole were possible as a result of a strong political will, focused interventions and increased access to antiretroviral therapy. For instance, the proportion of the population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs (indicator 6.5) has experienced a substantial improvement in the recent years, rising from 48 to 56 percent in Southern, Central, East and West Africa between 2010 and 2011, and from 31 to 36 percent in North

Africa over the same period.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Figure 6.1: HIV incidence, prevalence and deaths in West, Central, East and Southern

Africa, 1990-2012

Adult (15-49) incidence rate (%) Adult (15-49) prevalence (%) AIDS-related deaths in adults and children (in millions)

1.0

6 2

0.8

5 1.5

0.6

4 1.0

0.4

0.2

3

2

0.5

0

Source: Compiled from UNAIDS database and Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, 2013.

Progress remains fragile and needs to be strengthened, but HIV prevention is to a large extent a behavioural issue. Recent surveys show that there is an increase in risky sexual behaviour (multiple sexual partners, limited condom use) in some

African countries. An increase in number of sexual partners was noted in Burkina Faso, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Gabon, Rwanda, South Africa,

Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zimbabwe, while condom use declined in Côte d’Ivoire, Niger, Senegal and Uganda (UNAIDS, 2013).

Uganda, for instance, has recently experienced setbacks on HIV, which can be mostly explained by a reversal of behavioural attitudes and non-use of medication as prescribed (Herskovitz, 2013).

Notwithstanding the progress made to date,

Africa (excluding North Africa) still accounts for the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence and death rates globally, and prevalence remains higher for women than men (WHO and UNAIDS,

2013).

Success in reversing HIV prevalence, yet the number of

Africans living with HIV in 2012 is four times higher than in 1990

In 2012, globally, 25 out of 35.3 million people living with HIV were concentrated in Southern, East,

Central and West Africa; Africa quadrupled its 1990 level of 5.7 million. In the same year, this same region accounted for 1.6 million HIV deaths out of a total of 2.3 million living with HIV. Additionally, more than two thirds of HIV/AIDS deaths among children and adults occurred in the same regions of Africa. These facts warrant continuous efforts in the battle against HIV/AIDS. African governments need to go beyond reversing the prevalence rate by also drastically reducing the number of people living with HIV. Policies and institutional mechanisms to keep people on antiretroviral therapy should be strengthened.

Expansion of effective interventions is critical in reducing malaria incidence

Interventions to reduce malaria in Africa have expanded in recent years as a result of enhanced leadership and political commitment, and an increased funding for malaria control. Consequently, in Africa, the estimated number of cases and death rates associated with malaria have dropped (figure 6.2). Between 2000 and 2012,

Africa (excluding North Africa) reduced its malaria incidence rate by an average of 31 percent and death rate by 49 percent (WHO, 2013). Malaria incidence reduced in eight countries (Botswana,

Cape Verde, Eritrea, Namibia, Rwanda, Sao Tome

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

69

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Table 6.1: Malaria prevalence and death rates across regions, 2000-2012

Region

World

Africa (excluding North

Africa)

Americas

Eastern Mediterranean

South-East Asia

Western Pacific

NoC

226,000

174,000

2000

DR

881,000

802,000

2,000

16,000

31,000

3,000

2,100

22,000

49,000

6,900

NoC

244,000

192,000

2005

DR

854,000

779,000

2,000

13,000

34,000

2,000

1,700

20,000

49,000

4,700

NoC

214,000

170,000

2010

DR

676,000

608,000

1,000

12,000

28,000

2,000

1,200

18,000

46,000

3,900

NoC

207,000

165,000

2012

DR

627,000

562,000

1,000

13,000

27,000

1,000

800

18,000

42,000

3,500

Source: WHO, 2013.

Note: NoC – estimated number of malaria cases: DR – malaria death rate.

NoC Figures in thousands (000s)

Figure 6.2: Estimated malaria cases and death rate in Africa excluding North Africa,

2000-2012

900000

800000

700000

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

2000 2005

Death rate

2010

Number of Cases

2012

Source: WHO, 2013.

and Principe, South Africa and Swaziland) by 75 percent or more; in Ethiopia and Zambia, malaria incidence reduced by 50 to 75 percent, while it was less than 50 percent in Madagascar (WHO,

2013). Algeria, on the other hand, experienced an increase in malaria incidence, from 35 cases in

2000 to 59 in 2012.

The control and elimination of malaria require a multi-pronged approach, which includes the use

70

of preventive therapies, vector control interventions, diagnostic testing, treatment with effective/ quality assured artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) and strong malaria surveillance.

A significant number of African countries have achieved success in controlling malaria using ACTs and the preventive measure of insecticide-treated bednets. In 2012, Sao Tome and Principe reported a 100 percent coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets among its population. More than half of other

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

195000

190000

185000

180000

175000

170000

165000

160000

155000

150000

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Box 6.1 Malaria control and elimination efforts in Swaziland

The 2013 Global Malaria Report lists Swaziland as one of the countries that has achieved more than a 75 percent reduction in malaria incidence between 2000 and 2012, and has also significantly reduced death rates associated with malaria.

Malaria control and prevention efforts were intensified in Swaziland in 2000 in a bid to achieve the Abuja target of halving malaria mortality and morbidity by 2010; the 2003-2007 Strategic Plan to reduce malaria morbidity and mortality was developed for this purpose. The interventions included: high coverage of indoor residual spraying in most at-risk areas; use of insecticide-treated nets, especially among vulnerable groups; improving health facility surveillance; and information sharing and awareness raising efforts. While these efforts proved effective in reducing malaria, the need to move to elimination of malaria became apparent. Consequently, the Malaria Elimination Strategic Plan (2008-2015) was developed with the aim of reducing local malaria cases to 0 per 1,000 of the population by 2015.

Previously used interventions were scaled up and four key areas of intervention were identified for the elimination strategy, i.e. integrated vector management, surveillance, case management and information, education and communication of malaria-related issues. As a result of these efforts, at least 53 percent of the at-risk population has been protected through spraying and use of treated nets; all malaria cases are now treated with artemisinin-combination therapies (ACTs); confirmed cases decreased by 42 percent between 2011 and 2012 alone; and approximately 33,000 cases were averted between 2000 and 2012. However, to avoid the risk of the populations perceiving malaria as less of a threat, the National Malaria Control

Programme developed a Health Promotion Strategy. This programme significantly contributed to the sustained elimination and prevention of the reintroduction of malaria by encouraging people to remain vigilant in protecting themselves against malaria. This was achieved by: sleeping under treated nets; accepting indoor residual spraying; identifying malaria symptoms and seeking early and effective treatment; and using chemoprophylaxis when visiting malaria affected places. Swaziland’s experience shows the importance of national leadership in the fight against malaria and sustained efforts even with the burden of the disease decreasing. This provides useful lessons for other African countries in malaria control and elimination.

Source: Roll Back Malaria Partnership, 2012.

countries reported that at least 50 percent of their population had access to insecticide-treated bed nets and ACTs in the same year. The scaling up of these interventions is responsible for saving approximately 3.3 million lives between 2000 and

2012, of whom three million were children under five from Southern, Eastern, Central and Western

Africa.

Around nine out of ten malaria deaths are from Africa and are most common among children under five

Despite these efforts, Africa’s malaria burden remains enormous, accounting for more than half of the global malaria cases and more than three quarters of malaria deaths (table 6.1). In

2012 alone, 90 percent of the estimated 627,000 malaria deaths worldwide occurred in Africa

(excluding North Africa), and 77 percent were among children under five (WHO, 2013). Moreover, 40 percent of all deaths in 2012 occurred in

Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Similarly, close to 80 percent of the 207 million cases of malaria worldwide occurred in Africa, and were concentrated in four regions (Southern, East,

Central and West).

Reducing the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate critical for reducing TB prevalence rates

The TB prevalence rate per 100,000 of the population in Africa reduced on average by only

11percent between 1990 and 2011 (figure 6.3).

However, the following countries reduced TB prevalence rate between 1990 and 2011 by more than 50 percent: Botswana (52%), Central African

Republic (50%), Egypt (65%), Eritrea (68%), Ghana

(68%), Guinea (52%), Madagascar (53%), Malawi

(54%), Niger (79%), Rwanda (65%) and Uganda

(59%) (figure 6.4). Nineteen countries had higher

TB prevalence rates, with some doubling their

1990 levels; (figure 6.5) many of these are countries that have historically had a high HIV prevalence and/or conflict-afflicted countries.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

71

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Figure 6.3: Average tuberculosis prevalence, death rate and incidence for Africa, selected years, 1990-2011

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1995

Incidence

Source: Calculations based on UNSD data, July 2013.

2000

Death Rate

2005 2010

Prevalence

2011

The increasing incidence of TB in Africa is affecting reductions in prevalence rates of TB in the continent. Between 1990 and 2011, TB incidence increased by an average of 16 percent in Africa.

The above-listed countries that reduced TB prevalence by more than 50 percent also made relatively good gains in reducing TB incidence during the same period. However, in some countries, the gains are not as good in reducing incidence as in reducing prevalence; for example, Botswana reduced TB prevalence by 52 percent but only reduced incidence by 15 percent, and Guinea reduced prevalence and incidence by 52 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Nine countries

(Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Lesotho, Kenya, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe) doubled their TB incidence rates between 1990 and 2011 (figure 6.5).

Health Organization (WHO) recommends the acceleration of response to TB/HIV by increasing:

(i) ART coverage for HIV positive TB patients; and

(ii) TB preventive treatment among people living with HIV as priority actions for meeting the MDG target on TB.

In terms of the death rate, the African average fell by 23 percent between 1990 and 2011. In countries that progressed well in reducing their

TB prevalence, incidence and death rate, the most gains were made in reducing the TB death rate

(figure 6.4).

High HIV prevalence and incidence in Africa contributes significantly to the high TB incidence in the continent. The WHO Global Tuberculosis

Report 2013 notes that 1.1 out of 8.8 million people who developed TB in 2012 (around 13 percent) were HIV positive, 75 percent of whom were from Africa. Emphasis on addressing TB/HIV is becoming increasingly important in reducing TB incidence, prevalence and death rates. The World

72

Enormous challenges remain in the fight against

TB. In addition to the challenge of HIV, lack of access by many people to appropriate and quality

TB care, especially in Africa, is affecting progress on TB targets. This has in part led to increasing cases of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB), which is primarily caused by incorrect and/or inappropriate use of anti-TB drugs, thus severely hampering efforts at tuberculosis control.

Conclusion

Despite the hard initial conditions, Africa has been able to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS and incidence of malaria and TB, especially since 2000. The

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Figure 6.4: Countries that have progressed in reducing TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between 1990 and 2011 (%) 

Niger

Eritrea

Ghana

Egypt

Rwanda

Uganda

Malawi

Madagascar

Botswana

Guinea

Central African Republic

Benin

United Republic of Tanzania

Ethiopia

Equatorial Guinea

Zambia

Mozambique

Morocco

Nigeria

Sao Tome and Principe

Comoros

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Mali

Cote d'Ivoire

Burkina Faso

Mauritius

Cape Verde

Somalia

Seychelles

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Burundi

Senegal

Djibouti

-100 -80 -60

Prevalence

-40 -20

Incidence

0

Death Rate

20 40

Source: Calculations based on UNSD data, July 2013.

use of effective interventions has played a key role in the progress achieved on all diseases. Although prevalence rates have dropped, the continent still has the highest burden of HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB. It accounts for more than half of global prevalence, incidence and death rates associated with each disease, and risks regressing on some of the targets. In order to achieve continued success,

African countries need to expand the use of multiple but effective interventions. Prevention should not only be focused on biomedical solutions, but also on behavioural issues.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

73

MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Figure 6.5: Countries that have regressed in TB  incidence, prevalence and death rates between 1990 and 2011 (%) 

Tunisia

Namibia

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Angola

Liberia

Togo

Gambia

Algeria

Gabon

Chad

Lesotho

Cameroon

South Africa

Congo

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Mauritania

Sierra Leone

-100 0

Source: Calculations based on UNSD data, July 2013.

100

Prevalence

200

Incidence

300

Death Rate

400 500

74

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Africa is making good progress on the environmental targets of MDG 7. Many African countries are reducing their CO

2

emissions and use of ozone- depleting substances and increasing the protection of territorial and marine areas. The world met the MDG target for drinking water in 2010, but 45 countries (20 of which are from Africa) are still not on track to meet the target by 2015. The combination of a low 1990 baseline with a high population growth exacerbates the challenges of meeting this target. On average, these countries had to increase drinking water coverage by 26 percentage points, which for some meant doubling their

1990 coverage levels (WHO and UNICEF, 2014).

The world is not on track to meet the MDG sanitation target; 69 countries were not on track in

2012, 36 of them from Africa. Despite 1.9 billion people gaining access since 1990, by the end of

2012, there were 2.5 billion people who did not use improved sanitation facilities, only 7 percent fewer than the 2.7 billion without access in 1990.

Forty percent of those who lack access to an improved sanitation facility (one billion people) live in Southern Asia. At current rates, there will be a gap globally in the MDG sanitation target by over half a billion people (WHO and UNICEF,

2014).

High CO

2

emissions from industrialization

Africa accounts for only a small fraction of the world’s total carbon dioxide (CO

2

) emission per year; however, it accounts for 20 percent of the global net CO

2

emission land use.

49

In 2010, Libya,

South Africa, Seychelles, Equatorial Guinea, Algeria and Mauritius emitted the most CO

2

, whereas

Lesotho emitted the lowest. Over the period

49 Net CO

2

emissions land-use measures emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from land use changes. CO

2

emissions are generally estimated based on activity data from industrial processes and land use. Such activities include agriculture, solvent uses, forestry, waste, fugitive fuel emissions and fuel combustion.

2010, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon,

Guinea, Mauritania, Rwanda, and Zambia reduced their CO

2

emissions. However, significant increases in emission were registered in Angola, Nigeria and

Algeria in 2010 (figure 7.1).

Although Africa contributes least to CO

2

emissions and the trend is improving, the carbon footprint still needs to be closely monitored.

There is an indication that countries with higher industrialization emit larger volumes of CO

2 than those with lower industrialization or smaller industrial sectors. Global CO

2 emissions are leading to decomposition of organic soil, soil degradation and erosion. The implication is that Africa will be trading off productivity for degradation, which can be avoided through global reductions in CO

2 emissions. Projections further suggest that, with continued CO

2

emissions, the continent will become drier and warmer. Evidence from Odusola and Abidoye (2012) shows that climate change has serious negative effects on economic growth.

There is need to develop and improve locally adapted systems to allow for proper monitoring of CO

2 emissions. In addition, increased investment in the field of renewable energies and the promotion of resource-efficient and cleaner production practices is also required to bring down the level of CO

2

emissions. However, given the limited contribution of Africa to greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions and the high investment costs associated with renewable energies, developed countries will have to play a key role in supporting the continent in order to achieve a more balanced energy mix. Furthermore, the importance of African industries at both the national and international levels cannot be overstressed, and

African industries and business conglomerates operating in the continent need to comply with environmental standards, rules and regulations within the framework of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR). African governments should invest heavily in promoting the efficient

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

75

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Figure7.1: Carbon dioxide emissions (CO

2

1990 and 2010

) (metric tonnes of CO

2

per capita) (CDIAC),

Niger

Madagascar

Eritrea

Burkina Faso

Uganda

Sierra Leone

Mozambique

Guinea

Tanzania

Guinea-Bissau

Zambia

Comoros

Liberia

Togo

Gambia

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Lesotho

Burundi

Mali

Chad

DRC

Rwanda

CAR

Somalia

Ethiopia

Malawi

Sudan (former)

Ghana

Cameroon

Western Sahara

Nigeria

Congo

Senegal

Benin

Sao Tome and Principe

Djibouti

Mauritania

Cape Verde

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

Namibia

Morocco

Angola

Gabon

Tunisia

Egypt

Botswana

Mauritius

Algeria

Equatorial Guinea

Seychelles

South Africa

Libya

0 2 4

1990 2010

6 8 10

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

production and use of energy sources over which they have a comparative advantage.

Use of ozone-depleting substances

(ODS) on the decline

There was remarkable progress in Africa with respect to the reduction of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) consumption between 2000 and

2011. More than half of African countries achieved substantial reductions (i.e. over 50 percent). Alge-

76

ria, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sao Tome and

Principe, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe achieved a reduction of more than 95 percent between 2000 and 2011; four other nations achieved a reduction of between 90 and 95 percent; and16 achieved between 80 and 90 percent reductions. However, among the high achievers, only Uganda and Zimbabwe have achieved a sizeable reduction in the 2010-11 period. Mauritius successfully achieved zero imports of chlor-

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability ofluorocarbons in 2005, five years ahead of the scheduled date of the Montreal Protocol. Algeria,

Tanzania and Sierra Leone have seen reversals in progress between 2010 and 2011. Despite the achievements made by the majority of African countries in this indicator, six countries experienced an increase in ODS consumption between

2000 and 2011; Gabon and Central African Republic, for instance, recorded an increase of over 150 percent.

Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected is increasing

In the 1990-2012 period, most African countries registered improvements in the proportion of protected terrestrial and marine areas. By 2012, a total of 32 countries had reached the target of having at least 10 percent of their territorial and marine areas protected, compared to 19 countries in 1990 (table 7.1). Five countries registered a remarkable progress over the 1990-2012 period by increasing the proportion of territorial and marine areas protected – Namibia, Republic of the

Congo, Guinea Bissau, Guinea and Morocco.

Access to safe drinking water improving, but sanitation is still a challenge

Access to adequate water supply is not only a fundamental need, a matter of human rights, but also has considerable health and economic benefits to households and individuals.

The 2012 data of 49 African countries showed that more than 80 percent of the population had access to safe drinking water resources in only 19 countries and less than 50 percent in only four countries (Democratic Republic of the

Congo, Mozambique, Madagascar and Mauritania) (table  7.2). However, there has been some progress.

By 2012, 69 percent of the African population used an improved drinking water source. Sixteen of the

116 countries that met the water target in 2012 are from Africa,

50

while another six are on track

(Benin, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Morocco). There is, however, a wide disparity in access to safe drinking water according to area.

Urban populations tend to have better access to improved water supply than rural populations

(table  7.2). In 2012, Africa was approximately 5 percentage points away from the target of people not having access to safe drinking water. The weak initial conditions (low 1990 baseline), combined with high population growth relative to the rest of the world exacerbate the challenge of meeting the target in Africa. For most African countries, achieving the target would require doubling their 1990 coverage level, which no developing region had attained. For instance, although Africa

(excluding North Africa) and Southern Asia were able to increase the proportion of the population having access to improved water sources by 24 percentage points between 2000 and 2012, Africa

(excluding North Africa) still fell short of the target by around 10 percentage points, whereas Southern Asia met the target given their more advantageous initial conditions.

Progress on access to safe drinking water in the continent has been impressive. Since 2000, almost a quarter of the current population (24%) has gained access to an improved drinking water source (WHO and UNICEF, 2014). Africa (excluding

North Africa) registered a remarkable improvement in reducing the proportion of population using surface water and increasing the proportion of population using improved water sources from 33 percent in 1990 to 48 percent in 2012

(figure 7.2). However, the percentage of the population using piped drinking water source on their premises is only 16 percent and is the lowest in the world. This calls for scaled-up actions to accelerate progress on this target.

Between 1990 and 2012, Africa (excluding North

Africa) increased access to improved drinking water sources by 16 percentage points, compared to East Asia at 24 percentage points, Southern

Asia, at 19 percentage points, and South-Eastern

Asia at 18 percentage points (WHO and UNICEF,

2014). Globally, most of the increase in the use of improved drinking water sources was due to

50 These countries are Botswana, Cape Verde, Djibouti, Egypt,

Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, South Africa, Swaziland, Tunisia and Uganda (WHO and UNICEF, 2014).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

77

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Table 7.1: Protected terrestrial and marine areas to total territorial area (%)

3.02

3.69

 

1.48

1.95

1.24

4.17

3.84

2.6

6.24

6.49

6.23

3.32

9.89

5.78

0.45

7.91

11.5

10.12

1990

0.11

0.16

0.05

0.49

0.53

0.41

1.13

0.91

1.44

Country

Libya

Cape Verde

Djibouti

Lesotho

Somalia

Mauritius

Mauritania

Seychelles

Liberia

Swaziland

Eritrea

Comoros

Gambia

Madagascar

Tunisia

Sudan (former)

Burundi

Mali

South Africa

Western Sahara

Algeria

Sierra Leone

Rwanda

Cameroon

Egypt

Uganda

Kenya

Democratic Republic of the Congo

3.02

3.69

0.08

3.67

2.55

1.29

4.18

4.85

2.6

6.83

6.49

6.23

6.81

9.89

7.52

4.45

8.53

11.61

10.17

2000

0.11

0.16

0.05

0.49

0.53

0.72

1.19

0.92

1.44

2012

0.14

0.16

0.16

0.51

0.53

Country

Angola

Nigeria

Ghana

Equatorial Guinea

Burkina Faso

0.73

1.2

1.26

2.44

Mozambique

Chad

Niger

Central African

Republic

Malawi 3.02

3.75

3.99

4.39

4.72

4.82

 

Ethiopia

Gabon

Morocco

Côte d’Ivoire

4.89

6.05

6.56

6.71

Togo

Senegal

Benin

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Zimbabwe

7.38

Republic of the

Congo

10.25

Tanzania

10.55

Botswana

10.91

Zambia

11.34

Namibia

11.45

Angola

11.59

12.04

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

people gaining access to a piped drinking water supply on premises. While North Africa was able to increase the population’s access to a piped drinking water source from 58 percent in 1990 to

83 percent in 2012, the rest of Africa marginally improved by one percentage point. Globally, the largest proportion of people without access to improved water sources are still in Africa, at about

78

two out of five people. Efforts to balance access to safe drinking water between rural and urban areas are critical (table 7.2).

Globally, 1.9 billion people have gained access to improved sanitation since 1990, and currently,

64 percent of the population use improved sanitation facilities. For developing regions, however,

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

15.02

17.72

4.86

0.16

21.84

11.04

24.27

23.27

6.42

6.26

18.05

5.38

26.4

30.3

36.04

11.21

12.06

1990

12.06

11.34

13.92

4.96

13.7

13.77

9.55

7.07

17.51

16.47

17.72

5.87

0.57

21.9

11.32

24.27

24.44

7.06

26.98

18.05

9.37

27.79

37.17

36.05

19.2

12.06

2000

12.06

12.65

14.41

14.05

13.86

13.77

9.55

7.07

17.76

18.25

18.41

19.15

19.92

22.17

24.19

24.2

25.51

26.81

27.12

27.17

30.44

31.66

37.19

37.78

42.58

12.06

2012

12.06

13.82

14.41

15.09

15.19

16.4

16.62

16.72

17.98

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Figure 7.2: Drinking water coverage by developing regions, 1990–2012 (%)

East, West, Central and Southern Africa

1990

2012

Ocenia

1990

2012

Southern Asia

1990

2012

Eastern Asia

1990

2012

North Africa

1990

2012

Western Asia

1990

2012

Latin America and the Caribean

1990

2012

LDCs

1990

2012

Developing regions

1990

2012

Developed regions

1990

2012

World

1990

2012

0 20

Piped on Premises

40

Other Improved

60

Unimproved

80

Surface Water

100

Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

increasing the proportion of the population accessing improved sanitation between 1990 and

2012 still remains a daunting challenge, which is more serious in Africa than in other developing regions (figure 7.3). Only three of the nine developing regions met the target in 2012, namely,

North Africa, Eastern Asia, and Caucasus and

Central Asia. Even developed regions as a group are yet to meet the target. The percentage of the population using improved sanitation facilities in

Africa (excluding North Africa) increased from 24 percent in 1990, to 30 percent in 2012; compared to in North Africa, from 72 to 91 percent, and in developing regions, from 36 to 57 percent during the same period. Since 2000, however, Africa is one of the regions that made appreciable pro-

Table 7.2: Percentage of the population with access to safe drinking water, rural and urban, 1990 and 2012

 

 

Democratic Republic of the

Congo

Mozambique

Madagascar

Mauritania

Chad

Ethiopia

Niger

1990

88.5

Urban

2012

79.1

72.1

72.8

36.4

49.4

80.7

60.7

80.3

78.2

52.3

71.8

96.8

98.7

1990

25.8

Rural

2012

29.0

23.3

15.0

26.2

37.2

3.5

29.5

35.0

35.4

47.7

44.8

42.1

42.1

1990

43.2

Total

2012

46.5

33.6

28.6

30.3

39.8

13.2

34.3

49.2

49.6

49.6

50.7

51.5

52.3

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

79

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

 

 

Swaziland

Liberia

Uganda

Guinea

Burundi

Congo

Benin

Zimbabwe

Côte d’Ivoire

Lesotho

Burkina Faso

Morocco

Algeria

Malawi

Ghana

Tanzania

Angola

Sudan

South Sudan

Togo

Sierra Leone

Kenya

Zambia

Nigeria

Mali

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Guinea-Bissau

Senegal

Cameroon

Cape Verde

Gambia

Namibia

Djibouti

Gabon

South Africa

Seychelles

Tunisia

Botswana

Sao Tome and Principe

Egypt

Mauritius

Comoros

Eritrea

Libya

Urban

92.2

91.5

95.7

84.5

97.3

91.5

93.2

97.5

80.7

96.1

92.5

94.1

93.6

86.8

94.8

2012

77.9

67.6

66.0

63.4

91.4

87.1

82.3

84.8

78.8

90.9

89.6

96.8

99.2

96.3

100.0

99.3

98.9

100.0

98.5

85.5

94.6

92.5

91.2

94.2

98.4

100.0

99.9

 

 

 

86.4

95.9

95.3

72.3

99.7

90.3

93.4

75.0

90.0

44.8

88.6

78.3

86.0

 

77.4

1990

93.7

43.3

85.6

 

78.8

65.9

91.7

89.0

77.9

53.1

80.0

 

97.9

96.3

94.7

99.7

 

96.5

93.6

99.7

91.6

83.7

 

85.7

98.7

81.8

99.7

97.7

62.3

54.2

Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

80

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

39.1

67.0

 

49.1

70.8

66.7

74.9

38.6

58.6

32.2

41.7

33.5

24.9

 

37.2

1990

46.0

41.8

61.3

 

36.2

22.4

32.9

23.1

28.0

20.5

46.4

 

63.3

96.3

63.3

86.2

 

90.2

53.3

87.6

35.7

37.6

 

69.6

55.2

60.3

98.7

82.8

38.9

54.9

Rural

65.0

73.2

38.8

69.1

68.7

67.8

76.7

75.8

68.3

55.5

60.3

51.9

68.9

63.0

71.0

2012

44.0

34.3

50.2

55.0

40.3

42.4

55.1

49.2

49.1

54.2

54.4

63.0

88.3

96.3

90.5

92.8

93.6

98.8

63.6

79.5

83.2

81.3

86.0

84.4

87.4

65.5

99.7

96.7

 

 

52.4

68.8

 

57.1

79.2

76.0

77.5

43.6

60.3

35.8

59.9

51.3

38.9

 

41.6

1990

55.0

42.4

67.5

 

48.4

36.7

42.7

49.1

45.6

28.1

58.8

 

81.3

96.3

81.5

91.9

 

92.9

72.8

93.9

42.1

54.4

 

75.8

67.2

76.6

99.2

87.0

42.6

54.4

Total

74.8

75.3

75.3

76.1

79.9

80.2

81.3

81.7

70.7

73.6

74.1

74.1

74.1

74.6

74.8

2012

53.2

54.3

55.5

56.5

60.0

60.1

61.7

63.3

64.0

67.2

68.2

92.2

95.1

96.3

96.8

96.8

97.0

99.3

83.6

83.9

85.0

87.2

89.3

90.1

91.7

92.1

99.8

 

 

 

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Figure 7.3: Sanitation coverage trends by region, 1990-2012(%)

Southern Asia

1990

2012

East, West, Central and Southern Africa

1990

2012

Ocenia

1990

2012

Latin America and the Caribean

1990

2012

West Asia

1990

2012

North Africa

1990

2012

East Asia

1990

2012

LDCs

1990

2012

Developing Regions

1990

2012

Developed Regions

1990

2012

World

1990

2012

0 20

Improved

40

Shared

60

Unimproved

80

Open Defectation

Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

Figure 7.4: Regions that increased access to improved sanitation (% of the population), 2000-2012

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Develped regions

World Developing

regions

Least developed regions

Western Asia Africa

(excluding

North Africa)

Source: Authors’ calculations, based on WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

Southern

Asia

South

Eastern Asia

North Africa Eastern

Asia

Latin America and Caribbean

Oceania Caucasus and Central Asia

100

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

81

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Table 7.3: Percentage of the population using improved sanitation facilities, urban and rural, 1990 and 2012

 

 

South Sudan

Niger

Malawi

Togo

Chad

Tanzania

Sierra Leone

Madagascar

Benin

Ghana

Republic of the Congo

Liberia

Burkina Faso

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Mozambique

Central African Republic

Côte d’Ivoire

Mali

Sudan

Ethiopia

Mauritania

Nigeria

Kenya

Lesotho

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Namibia

Uganda

Sao Tome and Principe

Zimbabwe

Gabon

Zambia

Cameroon

Burundi

Senegal

Swaziland

Angola

82

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

60.6

32.2

53.7

36.0

26.5

31.6

32.8

52.0

18.7

28.6

 –

33.8

19.9

27.8

60.8

59.9

31.2

57.9

62.6

67.4

 –

44.1

17.6

22.7

14.3

13.8

12.6

1990

22.4

27.3

26.3

20.9

8.6

Urban

56.1

32.8

40.8

51.6

42.9

30.8

31.3

37.0

29.1

35.3

43.9

27.4

51.1

33.5

43.6

43.6

32.7

56.4

61.7

42.7

67.1

63.1

86.8

19.6

28.4

50.4

32.7

22.5

19.2

25.3

19.9

2012

15.7

32.9

22.3

25.5

31.4

24.9

9.5

25.5

35.3

37.4

24.2

11.5

10.0

18.3

0.0

8.4

3.3

1.7

11.6

6.5

28.6

26.7

42.4

20.7

44.3

6.6

 –

3.3

1.9

4.7

5.1

5.9

0.3

3.8

1990

 –

1.6

7.3

7.9

4.4

6.2

Rural

16.9

34.1

23.3

32.4

32.0

24.7

29.1

26.7

32.6

14.5

13.4

22.8

9.2

8.5

10.7

7.2

10.0

33.9

26.8

48.1

40.5

56.0

20.1

5.6

5.9

6.7

11.2

6.8

11.3

5.1

8.4

2012

7.3

3.8

8.0

2.5

6.5

7.5

Total

32.2

33.9

34.4

39.9

41.4

27.8

29.6

29.6

31.4

21.9

23.6

23.6

26.7

19.7

21.0

21.5

21.9

42.8

45.2

47.5

51.9

57.5

60.1

14.6

16.8

18.6

18.9

13.0

13.9

14.3

14.4

2012

8.9

9.0

10.3

11.3

11.9

12.2

23.6

26.2

40.6

36.9

24.6

17.0

15.3

26.9

2.4

16.4

 –

8.5

14.6

14.9

41.3

39.9

41.7

35.1

48.5

29.2

 –

 –

7.7

8.3

10.9

7.9

5.0

7.0

1990

 –

4.8

9.6

13.2

7.8

6.6

 

 

Gambia

Djibouti

Rwanda

Botswana

Cape Verde

South Africa

Morocco

Tunisia

Mauritius

Algeria

Egypt

Libya

Seychelles

Comoros

Eritrea

96.8

97.1

34.4

58.1

94.1

91.1

99.4

91.4

61.2

 –

74.8

80.7

1990

 –

69.2

63.9

Urban

96.8

97.1

 –

 –

97.4

91.7

97.6

97.8

77.9

75.2

81.7

84.5

2012

64.0

73.1

61.0

95.7

97.1

11.3

0.0

42.9

87.2

76.8

56.6

22.2

 –

39.7

25.9

1990

 –

39.2

28.3

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Rural Total

95.7

97.1

 –

3.5

76.6

90.1

88.4

94.4

41.8

47.2

62.4

63.1

2012

55.0

21.6

64.4

96.5

97.1

17.7

9.2

72.6

88.9

88.6

71.7

38.6

 –

58.0

52.4

1990

 –

61.9

30.2

96.6

97.1

 –

 –

90.4

90.8

95.2

95.9

64.3

64.9

74.4

75.4

2012

60.2

61.4

63.8

Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

gress on this target. Africa (excluding North Africa) is among regions with the largest increase (24 percentage points) in access to improved sanitation between 2000 and 2012 (figure 7.4).

Nevertheless, there are disparities across countries. Only four out of the 77 countries that met this target in 2012 were from Africa (Algeria, Cape

Verde, Egypt and Tunisia), whereas six countries are on track.

51

All countries that have met this target, and five of the six countries that are on track to meet this target in Africa are from the middle-income group. This suggests that performance on this indicator depends on the income level. Nevertheless, eight countries were able to double their 1990 level in 2012 – Angola,

Benin, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea,

Mozambique and Rwanda. However, in all these countries except Angola, the proportion of the population using improved sanitation facilities is still very low (below 30 percent). The astronomical progress of LICs such as Rwanda and Ethiopia is commendable. For instance, efforts undertaken in Ethiopia have led to a decrease in the practice

51 Countries on track are Angola, Botswana, Libya, Morocco,

Rwanda and South Africa (WHO and UNICEF, 2014). of open defecation from 82 percent in 1990 to 34 percent in 2012. Benin was also able to reduce open defecation from 80 percent to 54 percent during the same period. Libya, Malawi and Seychelles, however, stagnated over the period, while six countries experienced setbacks –Djibouti,

The Gambia (especially between 2000 and 2012),

Nigeria, Sudan, Togo and Zimbabwe.

Inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation services across and within countries

National and regional averages mask inequalities, especially within countries and between groups.

For instance, progress on access to safe drinking water has been faster in urban areas than in rural areas in areas in Angola, Chad, Niger Djibouti and

Guinea Bissau. Rural coverage increases faster than urban coverage in Malawi, Swaziland, Ghana,

Namibia, Ethiopia, Uganda and Burkina Faso.

These countries are good examples of reducing inequality in urban-rural gaps in access to drinking water and sanitation services.

The regional average performance with respect to open defecation also masks spatial inequalities.

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MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Box 7.1: Progress in Access to Sanitation in Ethiopia

Ethiopia recorded equitable progress on sanitation across all its states and achieved a huge reduction in open defecation over the past decade. Since 2000, Ethiopia has been successful in reducing practices of open defecation by more than half. The national prevalence of open defecation declined from 82 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2012. The Government invested heavily in awareness raising and advocacy by encouraging communities to stop open defecation and by constructing sanitation facilities. Consequently, the country recorded a remarkably steep decline in open defecation and steady progress in sanitation coverage across all 11 states of Ethiopia, despite wide variations in wealth, ethnicity and other socio-economic characteristics.

Source: WHO and UNICEF, 2014.

Against 14 percent global prevalence, it was 3 percent in North Africa and 38 percent in Africa

(excluding North Africa). However, the regional average ranges from 0.0 percent in Mauritius to

13 percent (Kenya), 28 percent (Sierra Leone), 40 percent (Mozambique), 57 percent (Burkina Faso) and 77 percent (South Sudan). Although the national average in Mozambique is 40 percent

(15.0 percent urban and 51.00 percent rural), there are wide disparities: from 0.0 percent in Maputo and 2 percent in Niassa, to 43 percent in Mapula and 75 percent in Zambezia. There is also disparity across the wealth quintiles in Mozambique as in most African countries. For instance, the open defecation prevalence rate is zero among the richest quintile (i.e. the richest 20 percent) in urban areas and 50 percent among the poorest 20 percent. The gap becomes wider among the wealth quintiles in rural areas in Mozambique: 13.0 percent among the 20 percent richest rural dwellers compared to 96.0 percent among the poorest 20 percent (WHO and UNICEF, 2014).

Conclusion

A review of progress made towards the achievement of MDG 7 shows that Africa has made strides towards ensuring environmental sustainability, but challenges remain, especially in ensuring access to improved sanitation facilities. Promoting equity in access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is another challenge. African governments must focus attention on equality in access across rural and urban communities.

Where rural communities are lagging behind in access, efforts should be accelerated in expanding coverage in rural areas. Both in urban and rural areas, discriminatory coverage should be prevented. Differentiated but sustainable solutions for providing the rich and poor with access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation should be initiated.

Intra-urban disparities in access also abound.

Residents in low-income, informal or illegal settlements tend to have lower levels of access to an improved water supply. Improving coverage in informal urban settlements may require innovative approaches, such as public water points, as an intermediate step towards a higher level of servicing disadvantaged groups.

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MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Limited integration into global markets of African economies partly as a result of rising protectionism

International trade and economic arrangements have little benefitted African countries. Policies prescribed by the International Monetary Fund

(IMF) and the World Bank (particularly Structural

Adjustment Programs), resulted in excessive economic liberalization with disastrous effects, including the requirements to cut back on health, education and public services, and to rely on commodities for export. And yet, developed countries continue to control the terms of technology transfer, private capital and foreign aid flows, while maintaining trade barriers to protect their domestic suppliers from cheaper imports from

Africa. Consequently, African economies’ integration into global markets remains limited and the continent’s share of global exports represented only 3.4 percent of the total in 2012, up from 2.3 percent in 2000, but still around half the level of the early 1980s (ECA and OECD, 2013).

tional 0.15 to 0.2 percent to support the LDCs

(ECA, 2013c). Similarly, the Paris Declaration on

Aid Effectiveness (2005) made a series of commitments to increase ODA by 2010, and in the case of the EU, to further increases by 2015. In 2011,

G8 countries reaffirmed commitments on ODA, enhancing aid effectiveness. However, a year later, DAC ODA to Africa dropped from approximately $30.77 billion in 2011 to $29.15 billion in

2012. As at 2013, only five countries reached the

United Nations target of allocating 0.7 percent of

GNI to ODA. The total quantity of ODA to Africa remains lower than half of the increase implied by the 2005 commitments. More specifically, the combined DAC donors’ ODA was equivalent to 0.30 percent of their combined GNI, leaving a delivery gap of 0.40 percent of GNI. The continued global economic uncertainty has raised legitimate concerns over the ability of donor countries to maintain their commitments on aid.

Supporting African countries’ efforts to promote trade and development has been a major commitment from development partners in various multilateral trade negotiations. Development partners have reiterated commitments at the

World Trade Organization (WTO) and in the G20 and G8 to, inter alia: (i) maintain trade finance, roll back new protectionist measures and refrain from imposing new export restrictions; and (ii) support enhanced trade capacity. However, these commitments are far from being met, as evidenced by rising protectionism, with 124 new trade restrictive measures introduced between October 2011 and April 2012 (ECA and OECD, 2013).

Limited progress in developing an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system

There has not been much progress in negotiations with the European Union (EU) in the context of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreement

(EPA) designed to replace the Lomé Convention between the EU and ACP countries. Following strong opposition to the original EPA by African countries, the EU introduced an interim EPA in

2007. Only four out of the 47 eligible African countries have ratified the interim EPA (including Ghana and Côte  d’Ivoire).

52

On this basis, the European

Commission set a time line of 1 October 2014 for ACP countries to switch to the new EPA. ACP countries that do not sign up to the new interim economic partnerships by the October deadline will fall back into a less advantageous trade regime Fulfilling the 0.7 GNI commitment is still a concern. Under the Monterrey Consensus (2000), development partners committed to increase

ODA to 0.7 percent of their GNI, with an addi-

52 See Actionaid (2013) for more information.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

85

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development and lose the trade preferences offered under the

Cotonou Agreement.

53

In addition, the failure to conclude the Doha

Round of world trade negotiations has been a major constraint on Africa’s ability to harness trade for development. A window of hope was opened during the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference held in Bali, from 5 to 7 December 2013, which reached an agreement on a package of issues designed to streamline trade, allow developing countries more options for providing food security, and boost LDCs’ trade (WTO, 2013). In reaching this agreement, 13 years after the Doha Ministerial

Declaration, WTO members sealed the first multilateral trade deal and revitalized the multilateral process whose relevance had been threatened by the prolonged stalemate of the Doha Development Agenda, the proliferation of bilateral agreements, and the move to plurilateral negotiations. was reached on the long-standing issue of developed countries’ export subsidies. Of particular concern are that the commitments for duty-free, quota-free market access for exports from LDCs, for preferential rules of origin for LDCs and for preferential market access for trade in services are not binding.

Moreover, there are serious production capacity and supply-side constraints facing African countries that severely limit their ability to benefit from the current trading system. Specifically, African countries lack technical capacity, notably in formulating, negotiating and implementing trade policy and related agreements. The Aid for Trade

(AfT) Initiative seeks to help them build trade-related capacity so they can more effectively participate in multilateral trade negotiations. AfT is also needed to build productive capacity in key sectors and improve trade-related infrastructure in Africa where countries lack the basic infrastructure that facilitates trade (e.g. modern transport corridors, ports, and rail and telecommunications networks to connect exporters to world markets).

Of significance for global commerce is trade facilitation, which entails simplifying customs procedures by reducing costs and speeding up port clearances. African countries stand to gain considerably from the reduction in trade-related costs, but this will require that governments undertake deeper reforms to align with the commitments in the agreement. The agreement thus provides an opportunity for African countries (in particular landlocked ones) to lock in and implement critical reforms to facilitate international trade.

Beyond trade facilitation, the Bali package includes some contentious issues contained in the Doha

Development Agenda. In agriculture, member countries have agreed to refrain from challenging

– through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism – support provided by developing countries for staple food crops through public stockholding programmes. However, no binding agreement

53 The Cotonou Agreement is the most comprehensive partnership agreement between developing countries and the EU.

Since 2000, it has been the framework for the EU’s relations with 79 countries from Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP). In March

2010, the European Commission and the ACP group concluded the second revision of the Cotonou Partnership Agreement following a first revision in 2001. ACP-EU cooperation has been adapted to new challenges, such as climate change, food security, regional integration, state fragility and aid effectiveness.

86

During the 2009-2011 period, total AfT commitments to Africa were $16.3 billion, and disbursements were only $11.9 billion. Furthermore, only

1 percent of the disbursed amount was devoted to trade facilitation (ECA, 2013c). Moreover, during

2006–2011 period, the disbursements to commitments ratio for AfT to Africa were the lowest of any world region. There is further scope to review the

Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) for LDCs when the programme comes up for renewal in

2015 in order to align it more closely with the trade-related priorities of LDCs in Africa, which includes the implementation of the CFTA initiative and the Action Plan for Boosting Intra-African

Trade (BIAT).

Greater effort required to address supply-side constraints and ensure that multilateral trade agreements deliver for Africa

Among the key factors constraining Africa’s trade on the supply side are its narrow production and export base, which is dominated by primary commodities and very high trade costs. In 2012,

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

60 percent of African exports were oil and mining products, a figure that has increased since 2000

(53%) due to the boom in commodity prices

(UNECA and OECD, 2013). The same year, the continent’s merchandise exports reached $626 billion, stemming from the wider recovery in world trade and strengthening commodity prices. But this figure accounted for just 3.4 percent of world merchandise exports against 4.9 percent in 1970-

1979, although a little better than the 2.8 percent in 2000–2010 (UNECA and AUC, 2014). Africa’s share of world imports has experienced a modest increase, from 2 percent in 2000 to 3.3 percent in

2012.

For Africa to realize the full potential of trade agreements, there is need to pursue economic diversification to improve productive capacities and competitiveness. AfT has emerged as an important channel for mobilizing additional resources towards strengthened productive capacity in essential sectors such as trade-related infrastructure.

intercontinental cooperation. The summit therefore adopted a roadmap to frame EU-Africa relations for 2014-17 with five key priorities and areas for joint action – peace and security; democracy, good governance and human rights; human development; sustainable and inclusive development and growth, and continental integration; and global and emerging issues.

The Summit Declaration failed to provide political momentum to reinvigorate the trade partnership through EPAs. The Declaration states: “EPAs should be structured to ensure that trade expands and that it supports growth of intra-regional trade in

Africa.” In addition, the EU has recently concluded the fourth round of negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States. This is an ambitious trade deal designed to reinforce ties between the two largest economies. Given its preferential access to

EU markets, Africa should take into consideration the long-term implications of TTIP, since it would then have to compete with the world’s largest free trade zone in a marketplace of 800 million of the world’s richest consumers.

Within the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreement, African LDCs will continue to enjoy complete access to the European market without reciprocity for all of their products, except arms.

However, this will not be the case for more advanced African countries, which are expected to open up their domestic markets to the EU because the favourable trade regime is incompatible with the WTO’s international trade rules. The

EU offers to open up 100 percent of its market to

African countries, and African countries are asked to gradually open up their markets to European imports by up to 80 percent within 15-20 years after the ratification of the agreements. This could result in the abolition of customs duties and an influx of European products into the African market, translating into heavy financial losses and displacement of locally sourced products. Careful attention will be required to ensure that a new trade regime with the EU does not undermine

African efforts to implement the CFTA initiative.

Furthermore, the Africa Growth and Opportunity

Act (AGOA), which offers preferential market access to 39 African countries, will come up for renewal in 2015. Although the US administration has pledged a ‘seamless renewal’ of the initiative, there is scope to expand the number of product lines that are covered and to align trade-related capacity-building support provided by the United

States more closely with the CFTA initiative.

Indeed, the CFTA is expected to help address many of the constraints of intra-African trade by removing remaining trade barriers within the continent, combined with easing customs procedures, cross-border and port handling.

African countries must also develop greater capacity to coordinate, negotiate and lobby to ensure that key issues from the Doha Development Agenda (agricultural market access, cotton, etc.), unresolved at Bali, can now be addressed.

The 4th EU-Africa Summit, held in 2-3 April 2014 in

Brussels, culminated in a Declaration that emphasized the need for a results-oriented approach to

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

87

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.0

0.8

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.1: Net ODA by DAC donors as a percentage of their GNI

1.2

Source: UNSD, 2013.

ODA flows from OECD nations to developing nations deteriorating for another successive year

If the trends in ODA in the post-Eurozone crisis are an indication, developing nations need to explore alternative avenues for mobilizing resources to finance social and economic development. Since the initial 3 percent deterioration between 2010 and 2011, ODA has not recovered. The latest available data show that ODA from OECD nations decreased by approximately 4 percent between

2011 and 2012 (OECD, 2013). This was the first successive fall in ODA since 1997. The fall in overall ODA in 2012 was particularly driven by the decrease in bilateral ODA (OECD, 2013). More than

60 percent of the OECD nations reduced their

ODA as a percentage of their GNI in 2012 (figure 8.1). Furthermore, the ODA from most OECD nations to developing nations still falls short of the target of 0.7 percent of GNI that the OECD nations committed to achieve by 2015. In fact, most OECD nations are off-track in meeting this target. Denmark, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Norway and

Sweden are the only exceptions that have already surpassed the 0.7 percent target.

88

2003 2011 2012

The effect of the Eurozone crisis is affecting many low-income countries in Africa. For instance, in

2013, Chad, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan reached the HIPC eligibility point, but are yet to receive debt relief. In order to move forward, it is vital to accelerate the completion of unfinished external debt issues for the LDCs including granting full and irrevocable debt reduction to countries that have reached the eligibility point.

Decline in DAC ODA to Africa

Although Africa in general and the Southern, East,

West and Central regions in particular continue to be the largest recipient of ODA, the level of net

ODA falls short of commitments (OECD, 2014).

While real ODA from multilateral organizations to

Africa increased during the 2011-2012 period, real

ODA flows from DAC countries to Africa fell during this period. North Africa experienced a much larger fall in DAC ODA inflow of approximately 20 percent, while the rest of Africa experienced a 4.7 percent decrease during the same period (figures

8.2 and 8.3), resulting in a reduction of 5 percent for Africa as a whole. A close examination of the average growth patterns in ODA to Africa shows a worrying picture (figures 8.4 and 8.5). In North

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

4000

3000

2000

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.2: ODA to North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million)

5000

1000

0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

DAC

2007

Multilateral

2008

Total

2009 2010 2011

Source: OECD, accessed 23 September 2014.

Figure 8.3: ODA to Africa excluding North Africa, (constant 2012 $ million)

50000

2012

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

DAC

2007

Multilateral

2008

Total

2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: OECD, accessed 23 September 2014.

Africa and the rest of Africa, the number of times when the growth rate in ODA inflows has fallen outweigh the number of times that its growth has increased. At the country level, between 2011 and

2012, five countries, Republic of the Congo, Côte  d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea and Togo experienced the most significant fall in

ODA (of more than 50 percent) (OECD, 2014). bridge the gap between the ODA commitments and actual disbursements. This is unlikely to occur in the near future given the slow recovery of the

United States and most EU economies from the sub-prime financial and sovereign debt crises.

Furthermore, the huge amount of funds allocated towards bail-outs implies that these nations have limited fiscal space to finance ODA.

In the medium term, ODA to Africa excluding

North Africa is expected to continue deteriorating, unless OECD nations take drastic actions to

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89

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.4: Average disbursements of ODA to Africa (constant 2012 US$ million)

1000

800

600

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

North Africa

2007 2008 2009

Africa, excl North Africa

2010 2011 2012

Source: OECD, accessed 23 September 2014.

Figure 8.5: Percentage growth in real disbursements of ODA to Africa

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

2003 2004 2005 2006

North Africa

2007 2008 2009

Africa, excl North Africa

2010 2011 2012

Source: OECD, accessed 23 September 2014.

Declining ODA to social services threatening human capital development and reproductive health

Although the social infrastructure and services sector remains the dominant recipient of ODA from OECD nations, it has experienced regressions in recent years. Between 2011 and 2012, this sector experienced a fall in ODA of over 6 percent

(figure 8.6). When breaking down the social services sector into sub-sectors, it emerges that the

90

regressions in ODA were mostly concentrated in the education and the reproductive health sectors. The deterioration in ODA to reproductive health will negatively affect Africa’s ability to reduce maternal deaths, which is currently 63 percent of the global share. Regression in ODA to education has implications for skills and human capital development. Lack of skills will in turn have negative knock-on effects on achieving other

MDG goals and on speeding up the industrialization and economic transformation of Africa.

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.6: ODA by sector (Current prices $ million)

15000

12000

9000

6000

3000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Education

Water Supply & Sanitation

Health Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

Other Social Infrastructure & Services

Population Pol./Progr. & Reproductive Health

Source: OECD, 2014.

Figure 8.7: ODA received in landlocked developing countries (as a percentage of GNI)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

Burundi Rwanda Malawi Mali

2000

CAR Ethiopia

2005

Niger

2010

Burkina

Faso

Uganda Lesotho Zimbabwe Zambia

2011 % change 2010 -2011

Chad Swaziland Botswana

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

OECD countries still fail to meet their commitments on aid to landlocked developing nations

Landlocked developing nations have been earmarked for special attention of the United Nations because: (i) they lack access to cheap sea transport;

(ii) they are isolated from world markets; and (iii) they face high transportation costs. Accordingly, the United Nations adopted the Almaty Declaration and the Almaty Programme of Action in 2003 to address some of these challenges (UNECA et al.,

2012). Developed nations undertook to provide assistance to the United Nations towards achiev-

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91

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.8: ODA received in Small Island Developing States (as a percentage of GNI)

20

10

40

30

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-80

Sao Tome and Principe Mauritius Cape Verde

2000 2005

Guinea-Bissau

2010 2011

Comoros Seychelles

% change 2010 -2011

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

ing this global agenda in the form of funding and technical support.

Despite the funding promises, DAC nations have not fulfilled their commitments. The available data show that although many landlocked developing nations experienced an improvement in ODA as a percentage of GNI between 2008 and 2011, almost all of these nations faced setbacks between 2010 and 2011 (figure 8.7). Botswana, Burkina Faso,

Mali, Rwanda and Uganda were some of the most affected, experiencing a decrease of more than 20 percent between 2010 and 2011.

Shrinking ODA to African Small

Island Developing States

SIDS in Africa have not been spared from the drop in ODA to developing countries experienced between 2010 and 2011. Four of the six SIDS experienced reductions in ODA as a percentage of their GNI of over 25 percent (figure 8.8). The worst affected was Seychelles, which experienced a reduction of over 65 percent. Furthermore, ODA as a proportion of GNI remains lower than 20 percent for most of the SIDS, except for Sao Tome and

Principe. In addition, for most of these SIDS, this

92

indicator is significantly lower than the 1990 level

(figure 8.9).

Africa and other developing regions: benefitting from preferential tariffs, but could improve

While the proportion of developed country imports from Africa (admitted duty-free) has remained high, there have been some notable setbacks since the Eurozone debt crisis. Some African nations including Angola, Burundi, Chad, Lesotho,

Malawi and Uganda experienced stagnation in the growth of duty-free imports by developed nations between 2010 and 2011, while 13 other

African countries experienced slight reductions.

However, Central African Republic, Guinea Bissau,

Madagascar and Somalia saw some significant improvements (figure 8.9).

Tariffs imposed by most developed nations on primary products from developing nations have significantly decreased since 2000. However, slight increases in tariffs on primary products occurred in the United States and Norway between 2010 and 2011. Overall, the average tariffs charged by developed nations on primary production are

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Box 8.1: Attracting alternative sources of funds: lessons learned from Rwanda

Given the continued deterioration of official development assistance (ODA), African countries need to attract other forms of funds to successfully finance industrialization. One way to attract investments is institutional reforms. The experience of

Rwanda provides useful lessons in this regard.

Rwanda has undertaken a number of reforms to stimulate investment and enhance the climate for doing business. The reforms include shortening the time and reducing the procedures for registering a business, expanding the range of assets that can be used as collateral when borrowing, improving the online tax systems, resolving insolvency and improving the strategies for protecting investors, among others.

These reforms have significantly improved Rwanda’s image as an investment destination. For example, the 2013 World

Bank’s “Doing Business Report” ranked Rwanda 1st in the list of top 50 global reformers since 2005. Rwanda also ranks 32nd among the top 40 global economies on the Ease of Doing Business Rankings of the World Bank, second among the African economies after Mauritius.

Source: IFC, 2013.

now significantly lower than their early 2000s levels. Nevertheless, developing countries would benefit more if tariffs were completely eliminated.

Agricultural support declining in

OECD countries

Available data show that agricultural support has significantly decreased for most OECD nations since 2000 (figure 8.10). Most notable reductions between 2000 and 2011 were experienced in

Turkey and Mexico, whose percentage reductions were over 50 percent, followed by Switzerland,

Iceland, and the EU, whose reductions were above

40 percent. The United States and New Zealand increased their support for agriculture within the same period. In aggregate terms, however,

Republic of Korea and Turkey are still the highest supporters of their agriculture, averaging above 2 percent of their GDP, followed by Japan, Switzerland, Iceland and the United States, whose support still averages above 1 percent of their GDP.

Support for agriculture results in distortions in the global agricultural markets. This has a negative impact on export earnings and in the economic development of developing nations given that they heavily depend on primary exports. Therefore, OECD nations need to adhere to fair competition rules in the global agricultural market. The recent breakthrough in the Doha negotiations may bring a long- term solution to this issue.

Leveraging trade facilitation through the Doha-lite Bali package

The implementation of multilateral free trade agreements was stalled because of differences between rich and poor countries, and between agricultural exporters and those that protect their farmers. The recent agreement on the Doha-lite

Bali package is deemed WTO’s first comprehensive arrangement that involves an effort to simplify the procedures for doing business across borders. The

‘trade facilitation’ component of the Bali package was taken from the stalled Doha Round of world trade talks and will also improve duty-free access for goods sold by the world’s poorest countries.

It allows for standardization of the costs and time taken to clear goods over borders. In general, the poorer and less organized countries take longer to clear their goods, which makes it more costly to process exports and imports of goods. The new initiative aims at reducing this, and it is estimated to add around $1 trillion to world trade. African governments must step up efforts in accelerating trade facilitation to further improve their competitiveness.

Debt initiatives helpful for

Africa, but debt sustainability is weakening

As of September 2012, 26 African countries currently eligible under the Highly Indebted Poor

Countries (HIPC) Initiative have reached the post-completion decision point (table 8.1). Total

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.9: Developed country imports from developing countries, admitted duty free, 2011 (%)

Lesotho

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea

Gambia

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Equatorial Guinea

Djibouti

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Comoros

Chad

Central African Republic

Burundi

Burkina Faso

Benin

Angola

Zambia

Uganda

Togo

Tanzania

Sudan (former)

Somalia

Sierra Leone

Senegal

Sao Tome and Principe

Rwanda

Niger

Mozambique

Mauritania

Mali

Malawi

Madagascar

Liberia

0 20

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

debt relief for all eligible African HIPCs amounted to $105 billion in nominal terms by end-2012; $67 billion under HIPC and $38 billion under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MRDI) (UNECA and

OECD, 2013). Recent estimates also indicate that over $5.5 billion of external commercial debt has been written off in 15 African HIPCs supported by the World Bank’s Debt Reduction Facility (DRF).

40

Duty free

60

Non duty free

80 100

After reaching $193 billion in 2006 at the height of the HIPC Initiative and MRDI, Africa’s total external debt stock (excluding North Africa) has risen by an annual average of 11 percent during the

2006-11 period. However, as a percentage of GNI and exports of goods and services, both the stock of debt and debt service have declined by over two thirds as a combined result of HIPC and MRDI

(UNECA and OECD, 2013). Moreover, debt service

94

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

4

3

5

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.10: Agriculture support estimate for OECD countries and the European

Union (as a percentage of their GDP)

2

1

0

Korea,

Republic of

Turkey

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

Japan Switzerland Iceland United States Norway European

Union

Mexico

2000 2005 2010 2011

Canada Israel New Zealand Australia

Table 8.1: Status of highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) Initiative in Africa, as of

September 2013

Post-completion point

Benin

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Comoros

Côte d’Ivoire

Congo, Rep.

Congo, Dem. Republic

Ethiopia

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Mozambique

Niger

The Gambia Rwanda

Between the HIPC decision and completion points

Chad

Pre-decision point

Eritrea Somalia

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Sudan

Source: IMF, 2013.

payments expressed as a share of exports fell from

11.5 percent in 2000 to less that 3.4 percent in 2011.

debt sustainability. It is estimated that 14 of the

33 African HIPCs are facing moderate risk of debt distress, and seven are in high risk of debt distress.

While many African countries have benefitted from HIPC, MRDI and other debt relief initiatives, recent debt build-up has led to worsening of

Further commitments were made in 2009 to increase the resources provided by international

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Table 8.2: Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income)

Country

Average, North Africa

Algeria

2000

17.376

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Morocco

8.498

23.075

Tunisia 20.554

Average, Africa (excl. North) 14.332

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Cape Verde

20.617

13.750

2.002

19.181

38.073

12.446

10.711

Central African Republic

Chad

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Congo, Rep.

Côte d’Ivoire

Ethiopia

Gambia, The

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

14.277

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sao Tome and Principe

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Sudan

Swaziland

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Source: World Bank, 2013d.

0.560

15.848

14.515

10.977

23.796

15.391

19.135

17.302

7.464

7.075

25.321

12.731

16.211

16.378

2.452

7.908

8.206

24.929

21.761

12.529

3.327

45.857

5.597

13.179

2.097

11.809

5.465

15.684

15.725

13.000

4.216

9.442

5.702

0.186

5.087

18.454

20.050

1.783

15.447

12.044

1.367

2.144

11.931

11.231

10.521

6.985

0.913

8.293

34.349

10.001

9.576

2005

10.842

11.375

6.671

13.805

11.514

9.394

7.164

7.114

8.881

5.525

7.699

1.541

6.270

0.361

7.792

6.494

4.269

4.864

5.282

3.189

5.580

15.411

4.420

61.181

8.866

0.653

4.000

2.017

0.867

1.977

1.626

4.134

2.309

1.453

1.151

1.206

4.536

8.236

3.170

4.176

4.234

0.935

2.374

2.291

1.076

4.947

2011

6.124

0.586

7.050

6.753

10.105

3.253

13.225

1.818

4.342

2.505

5.014

1.647

3.068

2.006

2.600

0.443

4.861

2.759

1.422

1.942

4.076

0.352

3.780

8.022

8.832

1.332

4.788

2.309

0.929

1.802

2.349

9.721

3.318

1.824

1.238

1.885

6.601

9.300

3.290

5.834

6.026

0.745

3.661

8.942

1.684

4.560

2012

5.869

0.849

6.029

7.271

9.326

4.033

7.244

2.819

2.659

4.221

8.739

2.096

2.554

2.801

2.441

2.829

3.551

3.316

1.102

3.059

3.134

0.255

9.359

8.166

Percentage point change (2011-2012)

-0.255

0.263

-1.021

0.517

-0.779

0.780

1.658

1.792

-0.190

1.287

6.651

0.608

-0.387

-0.035

0.679

0.788

0.292

0.061

-0.175

0.724

5.588

1.009

0.371

0.087

0.680

2.065

1.064

0.120

-5.981

1.002

-1.683

1.716

3.725

0.449

-0.515

0.795

-0.158

2.386

-1.310

0.557

-0.320

1.117

-0.942

-0.097

5.580

0.144

96

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

120

90

60

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.11: IMF bailout during the sub-prime and Eurozone crises

150

30

0

Greece: IMF Bailout Package

(2010 and 2011)

Ireland: IMF Bailout Package

(2010)

Source: World Development Indicators, 2013.

Portugal: IMF Bailout Package

(2011)

Total Bailout to the

3 EU Countries

LICs (2008) financial institutions (IFIs) to cushion the effects of the sub-prime and the Eurozone crises. In this context, IMF was called upon to issue new

SDRs, of which about $19 billion were allocated in August 2009 to LICs and around two thirds available to countries most affected by the crisis

(ECA, 2010). IMF also overhauled its concessional lending framework, improving terms and access, and scaling up its concessional lending.

As of late July 2009, IMF had approved 18 new loans amounting to Special Drawing Rights (SDR)

48,811.4 billion; approximately 68 percent of the loans have been granted to three countries,

Romania, Ukraine and Hungary, and over 82 percent of the new loans have been granted to countries in the European area (even though they were not the first or worst hit). By contrast, just 1.6 percent of new lending has been to countries in the African region (Woods, 2009), including the

Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire and

Ghana.

However, LICs have not been provided with a fair share of IMF bailout. Although African LICs were cushioned from these crises to some extent due to sound macro-economic policies, limited integration of financial markets with global financial markets, minimal exposure to complex financial instruments, relatively high bank liquidity, limited reliance on foreign funding, and low leverage in financial institutions (IMF, 2009), they still experienced some adverse spillovers of the crises, e.g. dwindling aid inflows, fall in commodity prices, reduction in global trade, precipitous drop in remittances, and stifled capital flows, especially foreign direct investment.

The share that was allocated to all LICs ($19 billion) was well below the $78.35 billion; $31.5 billion and $38.7 billion allocated to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, respectively during the Eurozone crisis (figure 8.11). Furthermore, the pro-cyclical conditions that IMF imposed for accessing these bailout funds disadvantaged African countries.

The financial crises and the inadequacy of bailout resources no doubt affected Africa’s progress towards achieving the MDGs, and therefore assessment of Africa’s progress should analysed in the context of these factors. The continued failure of development partners to honour their commitments and provide adequate support to Africa in the aftermath of the crisis calls into question their accountability in the global partnership compact.

Availability, affordability and quality of medicines affecting access to essential drugs

One key component of MDG 8 concerns global collaboration for access to essential medicines.

Lack of access to medicines is rarely due to a single isolated factor. It includes rational selection and use of medicines, affordable prices, sustainable financing, and reliable health and supply

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

97

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.12: Mobile phone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants

Eritrea

Somalia

Djibouti

Central African Republic

Ethiopia

Burundi

Malawi

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Comoros

Niger

Mozambique

Chad

Sierra Leone

Madagascar

Guinea

Uganda

Angola

Rwanda

Togo

Liberia

Burkina Faso

United Republic of Tanzania

Lesotho

Cameroon

Swaziland

Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria

Guinea-Bissau

Sao Tome and Principe

Kenya

Zambia

Gambia

Cape Verde

Senegal

Mali

Benin

Cote d'Ivoire

Zimbabwe

Ghana

Congo

Namibia

Algeria

Mauritania

Mauritius

Egypt

Morocco

Tunisia

South Africa

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Botswana

Seychelles

Gabon

-50 0

2000 2011

50

2012

100

% Change 2011 - 2012s

150

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

98

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

200

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.13: Mobile phone subscriptions and fixed telephone lines per 100 inhabitants: average for all African nations, 1990–2012

Telephone Lines per 100 inhabitants Average Mobile Subsctipition per 100 inhabitants

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

systems (WTO, WIPO and WHO, 2013). However, availability and affordability of essential medicines remain a challenge, particularly as the response to outbreaks of contagious diseases and the development of resistant strains of infection create new difficulties (United Nations, 2012b).

Yet, funding pledged for the Global Fund to fight

AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and the GAVI

Alliance has proven to be effective. These challenges notwithstanding, the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property

Rights (TRIPS) clauses facilitating local manufacturing and importation of essential medicines appears to be more broadly incorporated in national laws. These provisions provide flexibilities for developing countries to work out policy measures to promote access to cheap medicines.

However, US bilateral Free Trade Agreements

(FTAs) with several countries or groupings are limiting these flexibilities, because FTAs require that developing countries join international Intellectual property-related treaties that make it more difficult or impossible to undertake measures such as compulsory licensing or government use to provide cheaper generic drugs. Moreover, quality of medicines is threatened by counterfeit and substandard products, a problem compounded by the limited capacity of national regulatory agencies.

Growth in fixed telephone lines remaining flat and/or negative

There has not been any notable change in landlines in Africa countries. An average of all African countries shows that the number of fixed telephone lines has stagnated below 5 lines per 100 inhabitants since 2000 (UNSD, 2014). At a disaggregated level, only 15 countries experienced slight increases in this measure between 2011 and 2012. However, these increases did not have a significant impact given the very low starting points. Twenty-five other African countries experienced reductions in this measure between 2011 and 2012, while the remaining countries did not experience any change. As outlined in the next section, the poor growth in fixed telephone lines can be attributed to the emergence and rapid expansion of mobile telephones. Mobile phones are more desirable and accessible than fixed telephone lines, both in terms of cost and convenience.

Africa: world’s fastest growing mobile phone subscription

Africa has had impressive growth in mobile phone subscription since 2000. The growth in mobile subscriptions between 2000 and 2012 was over

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

99

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Figure 8.14: Internet users per 100 inhabitants

Eritrea

Burundi

Sierra Leone

Somalia

Niger

Ethiopia

Guinea

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Chad

Mali

Cote d'Ivoire

Guinea-Bissau

Central African Republic

Burkina Faso

Liberia

Benin

Togo

Malawi

Lesotho

Mozambique

Mauritania

Cameroon

Comoros

Congo

Rwanda

Djibouti

Gabon

Botswana

Gambia

Namibia

United Republic of Tanzania

Zambia

Equatorial Guinea

Uganda

Algeria

Angola

Zimbabwe

Ghana

Senegal

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Swaziland

Sao Tome and Principe

Kenya

Nigeria

Cape Verde

South Africa

Mauritius

Tunisia

Egypt

Seychelles

Morocco

0 10

2000

20

2011

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

2012

30

40

% Change 2011 - 2012s

50

100

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

60

2,500 percent. Although the sharp growth in average subscriptions experienced across all African nations is now starting to cool off, it remains steady above 10 percent. As of 2012, 74 out of every 100 inhabitants in the continent have a mobile phone (figure 8.13).

At the country level, Algeria, Botswana, Congo,

Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Libya, Mauritania, Mauritius,

Morocco, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Seychelles and Tunisia achieved a penetration rate of more than 100 percent as at 2012; Gabon has been the most exceptional performer, with a 187 percent penetration rate as at 2012 (figure 8.12).

However, there is still poor mobile subscription in Eritrea and Somalia, where subscription was less than 20 per 100 inhabitants. The continued political fragility in Somalia might have been the reason for poor performance in this measure, and with no political stability in sight, the low mobile penetration is expected to continue.

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Low, but fast growing Internet penetration

Average Internet penetration remains relatively low in Africa. As at 2012, Africa’s average penetration was approximately 14 per 100 inhabitants.

High cost remains the main barrier to improved

Internet use. Africa (excluding North Africa) has the highest Internet prices in the world (AfDB et

al., 2013b). The price for 100 kilobytes per second in Africa (excluding North Africa) is more than 14 times that in the Latin America and Caribbean, five times that in Europe, and more than three times that in the Middle East and North Africa (AfDB et

al., 2013b). However, the growth in average Internet use between 2000 and 2012 has been impressive, approximately 16 times higher than in 2000.

Between 2011 and 2012, Africa’s average number of Internet users per 100 people increased by more than 13 percent.

The rapid growth of mobile phones subscription has been behind the poor growth in landlines. In addition to the cost and convenience advantages that mobile phones have over landlines, people have also been attracted to various social networking and other technological innovations that have been integrated into mobile phones. Through these technologies, mobile phones have the potential to promote social and economic development. For example, social networking through mobile phones has reduced the cost of sharing information, thereby improving governance and democratic rights in many African nations. Mobile money transfers, mobile agricultural insurance and mobile agricultural extension services are also examples of the economic benefits of mobile phones. These services are enhancing agricultural productivity and improving financial inclusion in many African nations. Notable success stories, among others, include M-Pesa in Kenya, EcoCash in Zimbabwe, and TigoPesa in Tanzania. Undoubtedly, mobile telephony will play an important role in Africa’s transformation agenda.

At the country level, in 2012, over 50 out of every

100 inhabitants used Internet in Morocco and

Seychelles; above 40 in Egypt, Mauritius, South

Africa and Tunisia; and above 30 in Cape Verde,

Kenya and Nigeria. On the other extreme, there were less than 2 Internet users per 100 inhabitants in Burundi, Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia,

Eritrea, Guinea, Niger, Sierra Leone and Somalia

(figure 8.14). However, all the African nations experienced impressive growth in Internet use between 2011 and 2012. The best performers were Botswana, Democratic Republic of the

Congo, Libya and Sierra Leone, whose Internet use per 100 people grew by more than 40 percent. Central African Republic, Ethiopia and

Malawi also performed well, averaging above 30 percent growth in Internet use.

The high cost of Internet is explained by Africa’s historical reliance on satellites and very small aperture terminal (VSAT) earth stations for most of its connectivity (AfDB et al., 2013b). However, this is set to change because many African nations are heavily investing in information and telecommunications infrastructure. Efforts have also been made to connect Africa to the cheaper international bandwidth through underwater cables, which have been jointly funded by governments, development institutions, e.g. the

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

101

MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development

World Bank, AfDB, IFC, the European Investment

Bank (EIB), and most importantly, private African and international telecommunication companies.

Currently, there are at least six underwater cables, including: the East Africa Submarine Cable System

(EASSy), which runs from South Africa to Sudan and connects more than ten landlocked African nations; the West Africa Cable System (WACS), which connects South Africa to the UK, and passes through 11 West African nations; SEACOM, which connects both East and West African nations to

Europe, India and Asia; the Africa Coast to Europe

(ACE), which connects South Africa to France through more than eight West African nations; the East African Marine System (TEAMS), which is spearheaded by the Kenyan Government, Kenyan private sector telecommunication companies and Etisalaat of the United Arab Emirates, which aims to connect Kenya to the rest of the world; and Main One Cable, which stretches from Portugal to South Africa with landings in various West

African nations (Song, 2014). All of these underwater cable networks have set ambitious plans to improve their infrastructure in Africa, and African governments and development institutions are also making collaborative efforts to this end.

Accordingly, African Internet penetration and use are expected to significantly improve in the near future.

In Bali, WTO members agreed on a package of proposals designed to streamline trade in general, allow developing countries more options for providing food security and boost LDC’s trade. At the regional level, there have been Decisions and

Declarations to boost intra-African trade and fasttrack the establishment of the Continental Free

Trade Area (CFTA). Africa has also made remarkable progress in improving access to modern communication technology, particularly mobile phones and Internet.

Nevertheless, African countries continue to face supply-side constraints, which must be addressed for the continent to improve competitiveness.

Countries have also been facing challenges in financing developmental initiatives, mainly because OECD countries have failed to fulfill their

ODA commitments to developing countries. In light of this, African countries need to improve the mobilization of resources from domestic resources. This indeed has been recognized by

African leaders and is addressed in Pillar VI of the

Common African Position (CAP) of the post-2015

Development Agenda.

Conclusion

The attainment of the MDGs is underpinned by international cooperation and partnership. Development partners have reiterated commitments to maintain trade finance and keep markets open.

102

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

SECTION III

Analysing the Common African

Position on the post-2015

Development Agenda

The process of articulating the Common African

Position (CAP) on the post-2015 Development

Agenda began in July 2010 by decision of the

Executive Council of the AU (Decision EX.CL/

Dec.561 (XVII)) in which the Council requested the AUC, in collaboration with partners ECA, AfDB and UNDP-RBA, to commence reflections on the

MDGs for the period beyond 2015. Initial consultations began in November 2011 in Accra, Ghana, where stakeholders agreed that the successor framework should build on the MDGs by taking into account emerging issues such as climate change, structural economic transformation, as well as science, technology and innovation. Subsequent consultations reaffirmed the importance of these broad priorities for Africa.

54

African Heads of State and Government during the 21 st

Ordinary Session of the Assembly of

African Union Heads of State and Government.

A landmark decision of the summit was the establishment of a High Level Committee (HLC) comprising ten Heads of State and Government from each of the five subregions.

55

Chaired by H.E.

Mrs. Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson, the HLC was tasked to further refine the draft common position and build intercontinental alliances on the priorities identified. Following a series of consultations facilitated by the HLC Secretariat, the revised document was adopted at the 22 nd

Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Heads of State and

Government in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in January

2014. Anchored by six pillars,

56

the document underscores Africa’s commitment to completing the unfinished business of the MDGs, prioritizing outcomes that elevate the continent from a developing region into a global growth pole.

The key objective of the consultations was to articulate a CAP based on multi-stakeholder engagement, consensus and ownership. To this end, the consultations brought together representatives from governments, Regional Economic

Communities (RECs), the private sector, academia, think tanks and civil society organizations including those representing youth and women. It also featured an online survey to assess priority areas for a post-2015 Development Agenda.

The immediate objective of the CAP, however, is to influence the ongoing global processes, notably, the report of the Open Working Group (OWG) on Sustainable Development Goals, which will be a key input into the Secretary General’s Report on the post-2015 Development Agenda. An important bridge between the CAP and the work of the

OWG is the African Group of Negotiators, which is tasked with mediating Africa’s priorities via the

An important outcome of these consultations was the identification of “development outcomes” as the priority areas for the post-2015 Development

Agenda and “development enablers” that would facilitate the implementation and achievement of the Agenda. The findings were presented to

54 Mombasa in October 2012 for stakeholders from Eastern and

Southern Africa; Dakar in December 2012 for stakeholders from

Northern, Central and Western Africa and a final regional consultation in Hammamet, Tunis in March 2013.

55 Members of the HLC are Liberia (Chair of HLC) and Guinea

(West Africa), Algeria and Mauritania (North Africa), Congo and

Chad (Central Africa), Ethiopia and Mauritius (East Africa), and

Namibia and South Africa (Southern Africa).

56 These pillars are Structural Economic Transformation and

Inclusive Growth; Science, Innovation and Technology; People-centred Development; Environmental Sustainability, Natural Resources

Management and Natural Disaster Management; Peace and

Security; and Financing and Partnerships.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

103

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Table 9.1: Growth elasticity of poverty and inequality elasticity of poverty for selected regions

 

North Africa

Africa excluding North Africa

Africa

East Asia and Pacific

Eastern Europe and Western Asia

Latin America and Caribbean

Source: Armah, 2013.

Growth elasticity of poverty

-2.93

-1.51

-1.82

-2.48

-4.22

-3.08

Inequality elasticity of poverty

4.34

1.56

2.16

3.49

6.85

5.00 intergovernmental processes scheduled to begin in September 2014. While some of the priorities identified in the CAP are reflected in the preliminary reports of the OWG, much more needs to be done in order to comprehensively influence this process; thus, this section of the report will be devoted to explaining the underlying rationale for each of the CAP pillars.

Pillar One: Structural economic transformation and inclusive growth

Rationale for transformation and inclusiveness

The AU’s vision for the continent by 2063 is an

Africa characterized by unity, peace and prosperity, the latter understood in terms of all African countries graduating from low- to middle-income status. This process will require, among other variables, high and sustained levels of participatory and inclusive growth. In addition, growth will have to be sustainable for the benefit of successive generations.

predicted by the theory of Kuznets (1955). The

Brazilian and the Mexican experiences testify that effectively targeted policies such as Conditional

Cash Transfers (CCTs) can be highly successful in reducing inequality. In these countries, CCTs were responsible for around 21 percent of the drop in the Gini index between the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s (Soares et al., 2007).

Structural transformation can increase decent job opportunities through the development of value chains based on countries’ main primary commodities and through the promotion of linkages between agriculture, industry and the service sectors. Through the process of beneficiation and product upgrading, structural transformation increases the value of locally produced goods and the level of incomes of producing countries.

Furthermore, by facilitating export diversification, structural transformation improves resilience to external shocks, accelerates growth and reduces growth volatility (Mobarak, 2005; Moore and Walkes, 2010; Elhiraika et al., 2014).

As economic literature shows, there is a strong link between the level of industrialization, economic growth and development. Indeed, experiences of newly industrialized and emerging economies have shown that sustainable development cannot be achieved on a weak industrial base

(Alfaro, 2003; Barrios et al., 2004; Lall, 2003). Some of these experiences in these economies further suggest that industrial development can promote inclusiveness and take place without necessarily sparking the rising inequality and marginalization

104

Many African countries that export raw materials and/or primary commodities remain at the very low end of global value chains because the benefits they derive from their exports are commensurately small. For instance, it is well known that 90 percent of the retail price of roasted and ground coffee accrues to the consuming country; similarly, the retail value of a polished diamond is three times higher than the rough stone value, bolstering the need to foster structural transformation (Armah, 2013).

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Figure 9.1: Shares of value added for the agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors (averages for Africa excluding South Africa and North Africa countries)

100

80

60

40

20

0

Agriculture

Source: World Development Indicator database, accessed April 2014.

Manufacturing Services

High economic growth without concurrent industrial development and structural transformation faces a perpetual risk, stemming from price fluctuations and other external shocks to which primary commodities are exposed. This is highlighted in the work of Roemer (1979) and

Reinhardt (2000), who estimate price fluctuations for ore, minerals and metals at 23 percent versus

13 percent for processed commodities. Moreover, inclusiveness may be jeopardized when economic growth is exclusively generated by primary commodities; indeed, the extraction of oil and mineral commodities for instance is subject to high capital intensity, with very limited contribution to employment creation (Armah, 2014).

Africa can increase the benefits it derives from its large natural resource endowments by embarking on a strategy of commodity-based industrialization. There is no doubt that, since the beginning of the last decade, the continent has achieved unprecedented growth at an average real growth rate of 5 percent or more, with some countries experiencing average growth rates of over 7 percent during this period. However, the growth performance has not translated into stable wage- paying jobs and thus far, the economic growth has been accompanied by high levels of inequalities and insufficient access to quality social services in many cases. Poverty and underemployment remain widespread and of great concern for African economies, affecting almost half of the population in Africa excluding North Africa, and the scourge is particularly skewed towards the youth population, with 72 percent of youth living on less than $2 a day. Income inequality in Africa excluding North Africa is high, with a Gini coefficient of 44.2 in 2008, ranking it second to Latin

America and the Caribbean (Oritz and Cummins,

2011). For example, of 20 African countries for which data are available, the poorest 20 percent of the population often account for far less than

10 percent of total income, while the richest 10 percent control from quarter to half of it or more.

57

In addition, there are substantial gender and geographical disparities, showing very unequal

57 For the list of 20 countries, see ECA et al. (2014).

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

105

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Figure 9.2: Employment share by sector, Africa (excluding North Africa)

100

80

60

40

20

0

2000 2007

Agriculture Industry

2011

Services

2012*

Source: ILO, 2013.

opportunities as well as welfare outcomes for different segments of the societies, undermining the future of current and future generations.

Although Africa’s recent growth performance is remarkable, its impact on poverty reduction, livelihoods and access to economic and social opportunities and services fall short of the aspirations of the decision makers and their constituents. The weak impact of growth on poverty is revealed in table 9.1, where a 1 percent increase in the growth rate reduces poverty in Africa by only 1.82 percent against levels as high as 3.1 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 2.5 percent in East Asia and Pacific. In Eastern Europe and Western Asia, the growth elasticity of poverty is even higher, at

4.2 percent, illustrating the huge potential of a quality growth to induce social development and inclusiveness.

Africa’s recent growth has shown limited capacity to create an adequate number of decent jobs, especially for youth. According to ILO data, Africa has the highest percentage of working poor worldwide (i.e. the workers earning less than $1.25 a day) at 46.5 percent in 2012, ranking it above

Latin America, where the indicator stands at 24.4 percent (ILO, 2013). Furthermore, this growth remains highly vulnerable to external shocks

106

including weather vagaries and global commodity price volatilities due to the continent’s reliance on agriculture and primary commodities for its performance. Between 2002 and 2012, oil, metals and other minerals accounted for more than 67 percent of growth in African exports. In fact, in

2012, oil alone accounted for more than 50 percent of Africa’s merchandise exports. The strong growth that Africa experienced over the past decade has mostly been driven by high prices of these primary commodity exports (AfDB, 2013).

Industry, especially manufacturing, has traditionally been a source of substantial employment generation in developed and developing countries. However, as can be seen in figure 9.1, the contribution of manufacturing to GDP in African has been confined to below 11 to 12 percent since their independence around 1960, with no particular improvement during the recent decade-long high growth performance of the continent. The same indicator stood at more than 31 percent in East Asia, where labour-intensive industries induced high and sustained growth, and helped lift hundreds of millions of citizens out of poverty.

Structural transformation is typically associated with the migration of labour from the agricultural sector to the industrial and modern services sec-

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda tors, leading to higher economy wide productivity levels and progressively raising incomes. This structural shift should not be at the expense of enhanced agricultural productivity. In Africa, agriculture continues to account for more than half the total jobs provided in the economy; the share of total employment generated by industry has remained below 10 percent over the past decade, while services are absorbing most of the jobs that are slowly moving out of the agricultural sector

(figure 9.2). This is likely to hinder economic and employment prospects, since most of the jobs in agriculture and services remain informal with low productivity and wages, and poor working conditions.

The preceding analysis underscores the potential for structural transformation and industrialization to improve the level, quality and impact of growth in general. It suggests that Africa can overcome its challenges relating to decent jobs, diversification, resilience and sustainability through a strategy of commodity-based industrialization. generates decent jobs, provides opportunities for all segments of society, especially socially excluded groups, and distributes the income and non-income gains from prosperity more equally across society. Structural transformation creates employment opportunities for broad segments of society through value addition. Reducing inequality is extremely important because inequality generally undermines the productive potential of marginalized groups and deprives society of their full contribution; it threatens national cohesion, nurtures social unrest and creates insecurity.

Inequality is self-perpetuating because children from the poorest families are most likely to present the worst outcomes in terms of education and health, including dropout and malnutrition.

Inequality also undermines poverty reduction efforts: it is estimated that a one percent increase in inequality increases poverty by 2.16 percent in

Africa (ECA, 2014 and table 9.1). Through job creation and the production of higher value products, structural transformation reduces inequality and expands the fiscal space for investments in social protection programmes.

It is for all of these reasons that structural economic transformation and inclusive growth have been identified as top priorities of Africa for the post-2015 Development Agenda and is the first pillar of the CAP for this Agenda. In contrast to the MDGs, which were highly effective in creating momentum and generating tangible results in a number of social development areas, but quite limited in enhancing the productive capacities and promoting an internally driven development, the upcoming global Development Agenda provides a unique opportunity to give traction to Africa’s structural transformation and industrialization agenda.

(b) Sustainable agriculture, food self-sufficiency and nutrition

Improved agricultural productivity is vital for a successful transformation agenda. A modernized and diversified agricultural sector increases agricultural productivity and sustains the agro-processing value chain by ensuring a predictable supply of raw materials. Sustainable agriculture reduces food loss shortages and leads to food self-sufficiency and adequate nutrition. In turn, adequate nutrition improves the health and productivity of labour thus reinforcing structural transformation, inclusiveness and people-centred development.

Key priority areas

The pursuit of structural economic transformation for inclusive and people-centred development implies addressing a number of challenges, which have been captured as sub-priorities under the first pillar of the CAP, as shown below.

(a) Inclusive growth that reduces inequality

A successful structural transformation agenda will likely promote inclusive growth, i.e. one that

(c) Diversification, industrialization and value addition

Structural transformation promotes diversification, industrialization and value addition. Africa’s growth performance thus far rests on a few enclave sectors and is limited to narrow segments of society, thus exacerbating poverty, inequality and fragility. For more resilient economies and decent employment, there is a need to promote an integrated economy that nurtures intersectoral

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

107

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda synergies and linkages through diversification, industrialization and value addition. These measures will also expand the fiscal space for development financing, including social protection programmes, and the elimination of poverty.

Trade (BIAT). In addition, well-crafted infrastructure programmes can generate jobs, strengthen domestic skills and enterprise development, as well as enhance technological capability.

(d) Developing the services sector

A successful and effective structural transformation programme depends on a stable supply of raw materials, as well as a services sector that is supportive and responsive to the needs of the agricultural and industrial sectors. The service sector leverages manufacturing output through the provision of financial, logistical, transport, communication and marketing support. Hence, developing the service sector is vital for generating decent employment, and optimizing and upgrading industrial and agriculture sectors. In effect, improving the quality and efficiency of public services, modern logistics, high-tech services, culture, telecommunications, transport, banking and financial activities, e-commerce, tourism and health-related services is critical for an African transformation.

In conclusion, the stylized facts documented for structural economic transformation indicate that the process is accompanied by rapid economic growth that has the potential to raise income levels and improve living standards. However, it may also trigger rapidly rising inequalities, hence the need to adopt specific measures for inclusive growth, such as conditional cash transfers (CCTs) linked to improvements in the productivity and employability of the most vulnerable. Experiences in Asia and Latin America show that inequality may worsen with episodes of slowed growth, hence the need for policymakers to ensure that economic growth is sustained (IFPRI, 2008). An inclusive and sustainable transformation agenda must therefore be anchored by a productive agriculture sector that seamlessly provides the needed inputs to the manufacturing sector. This is in line with the recommendation of the Economic Report on

Africa 2013 (ECA and AUC, 2013), which calls for transformation through commodity-based industrialization. African countries can leverage their participation in the global value chain through local content measures that strengthen linkages with local suppliers.

(e) Infrastructure development

Infrastructure development is vital for structural transformation. The significant deficit in

Africa’s infrastructure is resulting in increased transactions and production costs, and reduced competitiveness of businesses. By heightening risks perceptions, infrastructure bottlenecks also impact negatively on foreign direct investment flows to the continent. The need to address this issue informed the formulation of Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), which has a particular focus on improved access to integrated regional and continental infrastructure networks and services. Accelerating Africa’s infrastructural development is pivotal to connect

African people, countries and economies as well as to help drive social, cultural and economic development. There is further scope to review the

Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) for LDCs when the programme comes up for renewal in

2015 in order to align it more closely with the trade-related priorities of LDCs in Africa, which includes the implementation of the CFTA initiative and the Action Plan for Boosting Intra-African

Pillar Two: Science, technology, and innovation (STI)

The rationale for science, technology and innovation

In 2005, the report prepared for the United

Nations ICT Task Force in Support of the Science,

Technology & Innovation component of the

United Nations Millennium Project highlighted the critical importance of knowledge and innovation for development in every country. Specifically, it recognized the importance of increased use of scientific and technological knowledge in addressing challenges in areas such as economic productivity, agriculture, education, gender inequity, health, water, sanitation, environment and participation in the global economy. The report further noted the importance of STI in facilitating the implementation of the MDGs and its potential

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda in reducing the gap between industrialized and developing countries (United Nations, 2005).

Experience from emerging countries such as India and China shows that STI was central to their economic revolutions and facilitated the extraordinary growth performance achieved by East Asian

Tigers in general. Asia’s experience shows that STI has and continues to play a very important role in economic transformation. As Africa pursues a structural transformation agenda, emerging

Asia provides valuable lessons in the design and implementation of STI policies that might be relevant for African countries. For example, while improving Africa’s competitiveness and enhancing its productive assets, STI has the potential to support the development of a more competitive manufacturing sector, stimulate agricultural production and productivity, and contribute to other sectors such as health. Information and community technology (ICT), for example, has the potential to add at least 2 percent to Africa’s annual GDP growth (AOSTI, 2013). Moreover, investments in research and development (R&D), innovation and technology remain a key factor in eradicating poverty, promoting inclusive growth and sustainable development, as well as adapting to climate change.

years. This has revolutionized and expanded financial service delivery in Africa through the innovative use of mobile phones for financial service delivery. For instance, Kenya’s mobile money transfer service M-Pesa, launched in 2007, fully evolved into a mobile banking service by

2012, used by over 50 percent of the population.

Subscribers can use their telephone numbers as accounts from which they can make money transfers, deposit or withdrawals (ECA et al., 2013).

This has grown and been replicated across various parts of Africa.

While Africa’s scientific output continues to be relatively small, it has experienced rapid growth, at a rate similar to that of Brazil, India and China between 2005 and 2010. Between 1996 and 2012, the number of research papers published in scientific journals with at least one African author more than quadrupled (from about 12,500 to over

52,000). During the same time, the share of the world’s articles authored or co-authored by African authors almost doubled from 1.2 to around 2.3 percent. Improved research infrastructure, both human and physical, ICT resources, open, free and low cost access to peer-reviewed literature are all contributing factors (AOSTI, 2013a).

Additionally, the full inclusion of STI and R&D in education and training systems could allow

African countries to provide their labour force with skills and knowledge that are relevant for economic transformation. Although education has received increased attention and recorded important progress on the continent, the educational quality and scope (i.e. emphasis on primary schooling) do not provide the continent with an adequate basis for a knowledge-driven economy.

Furthermore, the promotion of an innovation environment is also another key condition to address crucial continental needs in terms of industrialization, job and wealth creation (ECA and AU, 2012).

Several studies have documented remarkable performance in the scientific production at the subregional level between 2005 and 2010: in

Northern Africa, the indexed production grew by

60 percent, and in Southern and Western Africa, it increased by 47 percent. However, progress was concentrated in a limited group of countries. For instance, during the same period, production in

Algeria grew the fastest, at 74 percent (AOSTI,

2013). South Africa and Egypt published the most scientific papers over the above-mentioned period, followed by Nigeria, Tunisia and Algeria.

South Africa hosted the largest number of leading scientists, followed by Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Algeria, and Cameroon. These leading seven countries are believed to host 90 percent of the most active scientists in Africa (AOSTI, 2013a).

Africa has made important strides in some areas of STI. The continent has emerged as the world’s fastest growing mobile market with impressive growth in mobile phone subscribers in the past

A wide set of regional, continental and international initiatives for STI policy development has been launched in Africa during the past few years

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Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda in order to facilitate progress in the field. In 2007, the African Union (AU) and its New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Programme launched the African Science, Technology and

Innovation Indicators (ASTII) Initiative to support countries in generating statistical evidence for

STI policy development. The Regional Economic

Communities (RECs) have integrated STI issues or considerations into their treaties and protocols.

Moreover, the United Nations Educational, Cultural and Scientific Organization (UNESCO) has renewed its support for STI policy programmes in

Africa. These initiatives are part of a growing body of guidance on the role of science and innovation in Africa’s economic transformation. African leaders are also working together in the areas of ICT, pharmaceuticals and agriculture by sponsoring regional initiatives and projects. In the context of the above-mentioned regional frameworks, several African countries have recently created departments and ministries for STI policy activities. Some countries such as Kenya and Uganda have established councils or commissions for science and technology in addition to the ministries. tering less than 100 patents annually. In 2012, only five African countries

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registered more than 100 patents, while most of the remaining

African countries did not register any (World Bank,

2013d). This lack of innovation impedes development and has prevented African economies from successfully pursuing and accelerating structural transformation. Structural economic transformation and modern industrial development require extensive know-how and capacity to adopt, disseminate, popularize, and implement science and technology for practical uses. In 2001, the Technology Achievement Index, which focuses on four dimensions of technological capacity – creation of technology, diffusion of recent innovations, diffusion of old innovations and human skills, ranked several African countries in the group of ‘marginalized countries’. As opposed to countries ranked as ‘dynamic adopters’, ‘potential leaders’ and ‘leaders’ – the latter comprising those at the cutting edge of technological innovation, marginalized countries are marked by low levels of technology diffusion and skills, and poor access to old technology by large parts of the population. Among

African countries, only Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia,

South Africa and Zimbabwe were ranked in the group of ‘dynamic adopters’, which are characterized by a vibrant use of new technology as well as development of high-technology industries and technologies hubs (UNDP, 2001).

However, Africa currently faces numerous challenges in the area of STI, which has impacted on the continent’s ability to achieve the MDGs and its structural transformation agenda, among others.

One such challenge is Africa’s limited investment in and funding for STI. With the exception of Tunisia, all other African countries have consistently spent less than 1 percent per annum of their GDP on R&D since 2000 (World Bank, 2013d). A recent

AOSTI survey (2013) on R&D expenditure indicated that African countries generally lack budgets for

STI policy activities, particularly for research or data collection. It further found that R&D activities were largely financed by international donors and other sources. Among the countries surveyed,

Mozambique was the most dependent on foreign donors, with over 50 percent of its R&D financed externally, followed by Mali (49 percent), Tanzania and Senegal (38%) and Malawi (31%).

African ministries and departments responsible for STI policy still tend to operate in isolation from other policy agencies and have very poor links with academic institutions, regional and international think-tanks operating in the field of policy research, and the private sector. It is also acknowledged that African countries have weak capacities and limited experience in managing STI policy development. They also lack human and institutional capacities for STI policy formulation, implementation and evaluation.

Low levels of innovation and access to technology in Africa has presented serious challenges to development. Historically, Africa has the lowest number of patents for new innovations, regis-

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Empirical findings show that the staff of most ministries and departments that are responsible for STI policymaking lack the relevant research and analytical skills. Many of the officials in charge

58 Egypt (683 patents), South Africa (608 patents), Morocco (197 patents), Kenya (123 patents) and Algeria (119 patents).

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda of preparing policy documents are not trained in STI policy, have generally poor experience in evidence-based policymaking (AOSTI, 2013) and do not have concrete indicators for measuring

STI. Therefore, African countries need to build their own capacities in: collecting and analysing

STI data; designing STI indicators that are crucial in monitoring technological developments; supporting the implementation of STI policies; and facilitating continental efforts aimed at reaching the target of 1 percent of GDP to be invested in

R&D (AOSTI, 2013).

Other key challenges that need to be addressed include the low level of technology development, transfer and utilization, weak technological capacities and limited focus of education and curricula on technical subjects such as engineering and mathematics. Specific challenges persist in promoting the establishment of critical learning institutions. Institutions of higher learning in

Africa consistently rank lower than other regions: the highest ranked African university ranks 400 worldwide, while the best East Asian University ranks 86th worldwide. Furthermore, in African institutions of higher education, 60 percent of students are enrolled in the arts and humanities, and

40 percent in science and engineering. African citizens’ enrolment in technical subjects lags behind other regions. In 2005, only 0.04 percent of the African population was enrolled in technical subjects such as engineering and mathematics. In contrast, the figure for the four Asian Tigers was

1.34 percent (ECA and AU, 2011).

that the three best performing African countries were Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda, which ranked 53 group.

rd

, 58 th

, and 89 th

, respectively (INSEAD-

WIPO, 2012); Uganda and Kenya (99 th and think tanks engaged in STI.

) were the best performing countries in the low-income

While building on the progress achieved by

African countries in STI as well as reviewing gaps, capacity needs and challenges, the continent needs to improve overall conditions and contexts for STI policy development. National public institutions – including the executive and legislative branches – should strengthen their engagement in STI policy activities. Adequate understanding of

STI policy issues should be promoted at all levels, and synergies should be encouraged between the public sector, the private sector, nascent CSOs

The High Level Policy Dialogue on “Science, Technologies and Innovation and the African Transformation Agenda: Making New Technologies and

Innovation work for Africa’s Transformation”, which took place in Abuja, Nigeria on 24-25 March 2014, provided the continent with an extraordinary opportunity to further reflect on how to increase the use of STI and the impact of STI policies in order to facilitate structural transformation of

African economies and promote inclusive growth.

Africa continues to lag behind on the adoption and use of technology for farming and fertilizers.

In 2008, there were 15 tractors per 100 km

2

of land in Africa excluding North Africa compared to 183 in South Asia (ECA et al., 2013). Improvements in agriculture as a result of increased STI initiatives and policies can be instrumental in fostering job creation and inclusive growth.

It should be also noted that Africa does not appear among the first innovators in the world: the Global Innovation Index of the European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD), which ranks more than 130 countries in 2010, revealed

Key priority areas

The analysis conducted in this section clearly explains the reasons for which the promotion of STI features as an important pillar of the CAP.

The following were identified as priority areas on which this pillar rests:

(a) Enhancing technological capacities for

Africa’s transformative agenda

African countries have weak capacities and poor experience in managing STI policy development. Enhancing the development, transfer and diffusion of technology and innovation is crucial in order to support the implementation of

Africa’s transformative agenda. Increased access to funding for Africa-grown technological innovations and environment-friendly technologies enhanced utilization of and access to ICTs, as well

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda as the strengthening of the science and technology components of education curricula are critical ingredients for promoting the structural transformation of African economies. Enhancing utilization of ICTs in key social and economic sectors is also crucial to accompany and support national and continental strategies for structural transformation.

(b) Building an enabling environment for innovation

A culture of innovation should be promoted at the national, regional and subregional levels with adequate funding devoted to science, technology, research and innovation. The establishment of effective African property rights institutions and the promotion of increased collaboration among African countries on STI issues are crucial for creating an enabling environment for STI development.

Pillar Three: People-Centred

Development

Rationale for people-centred development

Over the last decade, Africa has experienced robust economic growth that placed the region among the fastest growing regions in the world.

Despite this economic performance, more needs to be done to improve the social conditions of the people. As indicated in the 2013 UN Global MDG

Report, while extreme poverty rates have fallen in every developing region in the world (60 percent in 1990 to 12 percent in 2010), Africa excluding

North Africa is the region where poverty remains most widespread, with only an 8 percentage point decline in the poverty rate between 1990 and 2010. As a result, almost half of the population in the East, West, Central and Southern regions of

Africa still live on less than $1.25 a day, making it the only region with the number of people living in extreme poverty steadily rising, from 290 million in 1990 to 414 million in 2010. This represents more than a third of the total number of extremely poor people worldwide.

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(c) Increasing support for research and development

Synergies and cooperation in the field of R&D, including commercialization of R&D, among academia, the private sector, government and CSOs should be encouraged. Full inclusion of R&D in education and training systems can allow African countries to provide their labour force with skills and knowledge that are relevant for economic transformation. Increased allocation of resources to scientific research and technology development, economic and legal incentives for private firms to adopt and use new technologies, regulations on procurement of new technologies, and regulations for research and innovation are also crucial to support the implementation of Africa’s transformative agenda.

The gain in per capita GDP recorded over the 15 years has not substantially reduced poverty in the region, indicating that the benefits of economic growth have been shared unequally among

Africans. Several studies confirm the persistently high levels of inequality in the East, West, Central and Southern regions of Africa relative to other developing regions of the world. For instance, these regions of Africa combined are second to

Latin America in income inequality; it has one of the lowest life expectancy ratios; very high child mortality rate and hunger levels. In addition, more than half of the children that dropped out of primary school are from Africa (excluding North

Africa). Nevertheless, the region made the greatest gains in the ratio of female to male education, especially in primary enrolment.

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(d) Optimal utilization of space and geospatial technologies

Additional investments and renewed political commitment are needed in order to develop the potential of space and geospatial technologies in promoting economic development, including through the promotion of human resources development in the management and deployment of the above-mentioned technologies.

In total, with less than a year remaining to the 2015 deadline for reaching the MDGs, Africa’s progress toward the various MDG targets continues to be

59 See “State of the World Poor” by the World Bank and Poverty

Reduction and Equity (PREM) (2013).

60 See United Nations (2013a), Inequality Matters: Report on the

World Social Situation 2013.

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda uneven. Remarkable advances have been made in some indicators, such as net primary enrolment, gender parity in primary education, representation of women in decision making, immunization coverage and stemming the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Notwithstanding this progress, more needs to be done. Indeed, despite rising enrolment rates in primary schools, the quality of education and school retention rates remain a concern. Also, while progress on health-related MDGs such as child and maternal mortality and access to water and improved sanitation has accelerated, it is insufficient to achieve the targets. Reducing inequity in access to – and quality of – basic social services also remains a critical challenge for Africa; these inequities explain in large measure the continent’s slow progress in attaining the MDGs.

Achieving successful economic transformation requires a healthy workforce provided with the knowledge and skills that will facilitate high productivity and spur innovations in technologies, processes, products and services. African leaders recognize that focusing only on economic growth is insufficient to address the human development challenges the region is currently facing. They are cognizant that sustainable, resilient and equitable development can only be guaranteed when people are the means and end of the economic growth process, particularly when the potential contribution of women and youth is fully realized.

They are aware that investment in children, youth, women and other vulnerable groups always generates substantial development multipliers, with positive effects on all sectors of the economy and society. They have acknowledged the necessity of addressing the unfinished business of the MDGs and agreed that Africa must commit to transformative, inclusive, sustainable development that reduces income poverty, creates decent jobs, enhances the quality of and access to social services, reduces inequality, responsibly utilizes the global commons, and promotes resilience to climate-related hazards.

These are reasons for which Africa’s leaders have retained the objective of people-centred development as one of the pillars of the CAP on the post-2015 Development Agenda. The key priority areas of intervention to reach this objective are: (i)  eradication of poverty; (ii) education and human capital development; (iii)  universal and equitable access to quality healthcare; (iv) gender equality and women’s empowerment; (v) population dynamics and development; (vi) taking into account Africa’s demographic realities and harnessing of its youthful population; and (vii) access to sustainable human settlements.

Key priority areas of people-centred development

(a) Eradication of poverty

The CAP commits to promote the empowerment of all people, including those living in vulnerable situations (including women, children, the elderly, youth, people with disabilities, rural populations, displaced persons and migrants), through inclusive growth that creates decent jobs, improves access to social protection and ensures that no individual remains below the poverty line. In this regard, Africa leaders are committed to ensuring that no person – regardless of ethnicity, gender, geography, disability, race or other status – is denied universal human rights and basic economic opportunities.

(b) Education and human capital development

African leaders propose to achieve excellence in human resources capacity development through improvements in the quality of education and training by: investing in learning infrastructures; increasing the use of ICT; ensuring higher completion rates; increasing technical and vocational programmes; promoting pre-schooling, integrated adult education and tertiary education; and improving the quality and conditions of service of educators and trainers. At the same time, equity will be enhanced by: improving and sustaining progress on gender parity at all levels of education, with special emphasis on secondary and tertiary education; creating a positive environment for girls and boys at school; increasing the representation of female teachers especially in science and technology; and eliminating human trafficking and child labour, thus allowing children to benefit from facilities for their full development.

School curricula will be strengthen by: including basic rights and responsibilities of citizens;

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Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda strengthening the quality of education beyond primary schooling; developing entrepreneurship skills, life skills and vocational and technical training to respond to labour market demands; providing information and technology skills; and introducing age-appropriate and comprehensive sexual and reproductive health education for all.

(c) Universal and equitable access to quality healthcare

The CAP commits to improve the health status of mothers, newborns, children and people in vulnerable situations such as youth, the unemployed, the elderly and people with disabilities by: reducing the incidence of communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases (including mental health) and emerging diseases; ending the epidemics of HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria; reducing malnutrition; and improving hygiene and sanitation. In this regard, needed actions will be taken for ensuring universal and equitable access to quality healthcare, including universal access to comprehensive sexual reproductive health and reproductive rights, including family planning.

(e) Leveraging population dynamics for development

Rural and urban space planning and policies will be put in place to provide adequate, equitable and quality services for all age groups. Key priorities will be addressing rural urban disparities, the needs of the elderly and youth, as well as eliminating human trafficking. The implementation of such a plan should take into account the needs for all citizens facilitated by the availability of timely, quality, disaggregated data and visual statistics.

(f) Harnessing Africa’s youthful population

Africa’s youth bulge needs to be turned into demographic dividends by putting in place policies and strategies that: strengthen entrepreneurial skills and capacity; increase youth’s access to financial services; promote decent jobs; increase access to business advisory services and credit facilities; promote participation in decision-making processes; and support the AU’s initiative to create a continental framework on demographic dividends.

(d) Gender equality and women’s empowerment

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are key enabler for human development. To this end, actions will be taken to: enhance women’s occupational mobility and eliminate gender-based wage inequality; ensure their access to and ownership of land and other productive assets, credit and extension services and training; eradicate all forms of violence against women and children, and harmful practices such as female genital mutilation (FGM) and early marriage; and eliminate gender-based discrimination in political, economic and public decision-making processes. Furthermore, African women’s capacities including leadership and mediation skills will be reinforced to assist them in the crucial role they can play in mentoring, entrepreneurship, conflict prevention and resolution, mediation and peace-building efforts, as well as in the rebuilding of post-conflict societies, among others.

(g) Improving access to sustainable human settlements

The rapid urbanization rate in Africa underscores the need for reliable infrastructure and amenities for an improved quality of life. This requires expansion of urban infrastructures and the development of a planned approach to rapid urbanization and the emergence of new cities, as well as the promotion of urban and rural planning.

This includes: increasing decent and affordable housing; improving sanitation and hygiene services; promoting access to social and economic amenities in human settlements; and increasing the efficiency of delivery and use of physical facilities and amenities, including waste management, transport and energy. It also involves increasing support for loss and damage incurred through climate disasters.

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Pillar Four: Environmental

Sustainability, Natural Resources

Management, and Disaster Risk

Management

Rationale for environmental sustainability

Ensuring environmental sustainability is invaluable, not only because it helps address problems associated with climate change, but also because it has the potential to address issues related to economic and social development (e.g. poverty, health and gender equity). Environmental sustainability ensures that non-renewable resources are preserved and managed in a manner that ensures intergenerational equity (AUC, 2014).

Given that the exploitation of natural resources has historically not translated into value addition, employment creation and economic development in Africa, efficient management of natural resources are essential (ECA, 2012b). Furthermore, some environmental sustainability methods such as recycling have been proven to save energy

(Netlog, 2014). As such, these methods can help to address the social and economic development issues associated with energy deficits in many

Africa countries. Environmental sustainability can also create business opportunities in areas such as biodiversity and recycling, thereby contributing to the eradication of unemployment and poverty in Africa. Conversely, poor environmental sustainability can be an impediment to structural transformation and inclusive growth. This is especially true in cases where some population groups, for example, the poor, youth and women, have poor access to environmental resources and information, and are excluded from decision-making processes relating to environment issues (ECA,

2012b).

African countries, particularly LDCs, are vulnerable to climate change and other environmental issues, for example, to warm weather, low rainfall, poor soils and flood plains (Atta-Krah, 2012).

Evidence suggests that Africa nations, particularly those in the Sahel region, have been warming at the estimated rate of approximately 0.05°C per decade in the 20th century (Lunduka, 2013). As a continent, Africa has experienced a 2.8 times decrease in water availability between 1970 and

1995 (Shiklomanov, 1996). A number of African nations, particularly SIDS, have been especially vulnerable to floods (Atta-Krah, 2012).

The multifaceted effects of climate change have been observed in many African nations. For example, the 2000 Mozambican floods resulted in displacement of over two million people, and the loss of about 350,000 jobs (Nkomo et al., 2006).

Rwanda also experienced serious flood events in

1997, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009, which resulted in infrastructure damage, fatalities, injuries, landslides, loss and damage of agricultural crops, and environmental degradation such as soil erosion

(Lunduka, 2013).

Episodes of dry weather and droughts have also been increasingly reported in many African countries. For example, in Malawi, temperatures of above 40°C have become more frequent in the past decade, and research has shown that these high temperatures are strongly correlated with incidences of drought and dry weather during the rainy season (Matiya et al., 2011). Similarly, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe are countries that have suffered from drought within the last three years.

Climate change has damaging effects on the overall economy. Odusola and Abidoye (2012) also find that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces

GDP growth by a 0.27 percentage point in Africa.

The evidence of climate change on economic growth is largely negative across African countries. According to predictions, climate change will negatively impact on availability of water as well as land suitable for agriculture. This would then initiate social and political disruptions, including forced migration and conflict (Lunduka, 2013).

Further predictions suggest that climate change will further threaten food security in Africa. For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) predicts that yields from rainfed agriculture in Africa could be reduced by as much as 50 percent by 2020 (IPCC, 2007). Along the same line of analysis, Kurukulasuliya and Mendelsohn (2007) provide predictive evidence that a 10 percent increase in temperature will lead to a loss in net farming revenues per hectare on average of 8.2 percent. These authors also show that a 5°C

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Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda increase in warming would reduce the revenue from farming by $38 billion in Africa, while a 14 percent reduction in precipitation would result in a revenue fall of $9 billion. Thus, climate change has a direct bearing on Africa’s food security. FAO

(2010) estimates show that 240 million people on the continent are food-insecure. well as the introduction of invasive alien species

(IAS). Acidification and overexploitation, including depletion of living and non-living resources in the five Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), threaten the equilibrium of oceans and marine ecosystems that are important for climate regulation (AUC,

AfDB and ECA, 2010).

The effects of climate change, particularly drought, also pose challenges to the availability of safe drinking water in Africa. Currently, Africa has the highest number of people lacking access to safe drinking water; its distribution of rain is mixed. Some parts of Africa receive adequate rainfall, while others experience severe drought conditions that last for more than five years

(AfriHealthnet, 2014).The western part of the continent near the Equator receives as much as

4,000  mm annually (AfriHealthnet, 2014). There are even some areas that barely receive any rainfall, for example, the Horn of Africa and the

Namibian Desert. Furthermore, due to exposure to global warming, Africa has been experiencing rising temperatures, which bring dryer weather and in turn in more severe droughts, especially in Northern and Southern Africa (AfriHealthnet,

2014). These droughts reduce the amount of available drinking water.

In order to create a balance between the need to address the challenges related to climate change and ensure growth and development, the global community embarked on a number of initiatives.

One such initiative, the ‘Green Economy’, advocates that environmental sustainability should be an integral part of the goals of ensuring sustained economic growth social inclusion. Specifically, the concept of the ‘green economy’ targets the following six main sectors:

• Renewable energy

• Green buildings

• Sustainable transport

• Water management

• Waste management

Climate change also poses a challenge to biodiversity, and is predicted to become the biggest single driver of biodiversity loss over the next

50–100 years, more than the loss of habitat, over-exploitation, and introduction of invasive species (AUC, AfDB and ECA, 2010). To date, Africa has one of the richest biodiversity in the world.

Specifically, Africa is home to approximately one quarter of the world’s 4,700 mammal species, one fifth of the world’s total and more than 2,000 species of birds, one fifth of the world’s total, and at least 2,000 species of fish (AUC, AfDB and ECA,

2010). The African mainland contains up to 60,000 plant species. Furthermore, eight of the world’s

34 biodiversity hotspots are in Africa. The continent also contains over 3,000 protected areas, including 198 marine protected areas, 50 biosphere reserves and 80 Wetlands of International

Importance. Protected areas, however, remain under threat by civil unrest and encroachment, as

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• Land management.

The Green Economy initiative was a step in the right direction. However, at the Rio+20 United

Nations Conference on Sustainable Development,

Coastal and Island countries questioned its applicability to their circumstances and needs. To this end, “institutional efforts were made to expand the Blue aspect of the Green Economy as embodied in the ‘Green Economy in a Blue World’” (UNEP

et al., 2012). SIDS, especially those in Africa, have a narrow resource base. They could improve their domestic resource mobilization if they would appropriately take advantage of their remarkable per capita marine resources. As such, the Blue

Economy approach offers the prospect of sustained, environmentally sound, socially inclusive economic growth for these countries. Of course, these benefits are also applicable to coastal countries and “ultimately the Blue Economy approach

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda offers the means for the sound utilization of resources beyond national jurisdiction – the sustainable development of the common heritage of humanity; the resources of the High Seas” (ECA,

2013a). Therefore, the economic transformation in the SIDS and coastal countries is intrinsically connected with the sustainability of ocean resources.

The Blue Economy offers opportunities for sustainable, clean, equitable blue growth in both traditional and emerging sectors, such as shipping and port facilities, fisheries, tourism, aquaculture, energy and submarine mining.

ment of water resources to safeguard water quality, and assurance of access to these resources for all uses; ensuring effective conservation and management of catchments areas; minimizing wastewater discharges; improving wastewater and water quality management systems; and improving sanitation and hygiene services in rural and urban areas.

African countries have recognized the opportunities and challenges presented by the environment. Therefore, issues regarding ensuring environmental sustainability, managing mineral and natural resources, and managing natural disasters have been set as key priorities for the post-2015

Development Agenda. These priorities are highlighted in detail below.

(c) Responding effectively to climate change

The African leaders fully endorse the outcomes of Rio+20 and have committed to: minimizing deforestation, desertification and pollution; promote reforestation and reducing soil erosion; improve land management; promote renewable energies; promoting efficiency of energy production, consumption and recycling; and effectively implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The CAP also urges “developed country parties to the UNFCCC to fully implement their commitments under the

Kyoto Protocol […].”

Key priority areas for environmental sustainability

Pillar 5 of the CAP recognizes the above-mentioned economic and social challenges created by the environmental issues and climate change, and sets out the following priorities as key to addressing them.

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(d) Addressing desertification, land degradation, soil erosion, flooding and drought

The CAP recognizes that desertification, land degradation, soil erosion, flooding and drought continue to be challenges of a global dimension to the sustainable development of all countries, in particular in Africa, as also recognized in the

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

(a) Improving natural resources and biodiversity management

The CAP proposes that African mineral and other natural resources, biodiversities, land and water should be exploited sustainably, in a way that fosters the structural transformation agenda and that ensures that the benefits from these resources are equitably shared across age, gender and generations. It also advocates for R&D, technological innovation and private-public partnerships to ensure value-addition to Africa’s natural resources.

This calls for urgency in reversing land degradation, soil erosion and desertification as well as for adequate support, including by mobilizing predictable, appropriate and timely financial resources in order to enable developing countries, especially in Africa, to face these challenges.

(b) Enhancing access to safe water for all

The CAP advocates for universal and reliable access in a sustainable manner, especially access to safe drinking water in urban and rural areas by: enhancing the protection and judicious manage-

(e) Natural disaster risk reduction and management

The CAP commits to building capacities for: anticipating and effectively responding to disasters and reducing their impact on people living in vulnerable situations; implementing the African

Solidarity Initiative, which targets countries in difficult situations; developing and supporting early warning systems; and increasing support for loss and damage incurred through climate disasters.

61 This section draws from the AU (2014) CAP.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

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Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

Pillar Five: Peace and Security

Rationale for peace and security

Peace and security are important determinants of growth and development. The absence of specific goals and targets on peace and security has been mentioned as one of the major drawbacks of the current MDGs. Conflict and insecurity create transboundary challenges with regional and global dimensions. Conflict in one country not only destabilizes neighbouring countries, but also creates environments where illicit activities blossom. Peace and security is the most important public good, and it is widely accepted that development cannot occur without peace. Freedom from conflict and violence is an important development outcome, but peace also underpins the achievement of other global development goals such as poverty eradication, socio-economic development and gender equality.

As a result of the wave of intense migration within and across borders and flows of refugees, conflicts in one place often spill over into other countries or regions. In addition, most countries in the region suffer from weak state systems and porous borders, which makes it easier for conflicts to spread across several countries at once and has given rise to an expanding, multi-country type of insecurity and instability. Almost all the regions in Africa are affected by one form of conflict or the other, but with different intensity and magnitude.

To address these challenges, the African Union

(AU) and the Regional Economic Communities

(RECs) have put enormous efforts in the facilitation of negotiations for the peaceful resolution of conflicts and the effective implementation of peace agreements. State failure or fragility is recognized as one of the biggest challenges to sustainable development and rapid poverty and inequality reduction.

It was in this context that the AU saw the need to ensure that peace agreements be effectively complemented by sustained post-conflict reconstruction and peace-building efforts, with a view to addressing the root causes underlying their outbreak. Accordingly, the Executive Council urged the Commission to develop an AU Policy on Post-Conflict Reconstruction based on the relevant provisions of the Peace and Security Council Protocol and the experience gained to date in the years of managing peace processes in Africa.

The AU policy on Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) aims to serve as a guide for the development of comprehensive policies and strategies that elaborate measures that seek to consolidate peace and prevent relapse to violence, promote sustainable development and pave the way for growth and regeneration in countries and regions emerging from conflict.

Given the peculiarities of each conflict situation, this policy is conceived as a flexible template that can be adapted to, and assist affected regions and countries, in their efforts towards reconstruction, security and development.

The effects of instability are devastating when it deteriorates into conflict, often spilling across borders and disrupting production, trade, and livelihoods. The impact translates into long-term losses when people, especially women and girls, are forced to sacrifice adequate nutrition, education and healthcare. Even after societies recuperate, the potential for development remains impaired long after the crises are over, as human capital is depleted and institutions are weakened.

The Great Lakes Region, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel remain particularly vulnerable due to a complex interplay of demographic, ecological, security and political factors. These regions have faced recurrent crises that intermittently trigger temporary responses, but have not yet fully addressed the underlying drivers of instability.

Ensuring personal security, ending conflict, and consolidating peace are all essential components of good governance for sustainable development. To achieve development objectives, there is a need to promote peace and security, and to take measures that promote, strengthen and sustain peace and security.

Key priority areas of peace and security

(a) Addressing root causes of conflict

Poverty and inequality are important causes of conflict. Addressing poverty, economic and social inequality will help to minimize conflicts. Measures should be taken prevent the outbreak of

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda armed conflicts by: strengthening institutions for economic governance (including strong political will to fight corruption); efficient management of natural and public resources; and deepening cross-border cooperation for the resolution of disputes and for promoting cross-border security.

218). Before the Millennium Declaration, ODA was at 0.22 percent of DAC countries’ GNI, whereas by

2006, it had increased to $104.4 billion, or 0.31 percent of DAC countries’ GNI (Bourguignon et al.,

2008: 18).

(b) Preventing the outbreak of armed conflicts

This will require various strategies, including: strengthening cross-border cooperation for the resolution of disputes and the promotion of cross-border security; implementing comprehensive, post-conflict reconstruction programmes, including the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), in countries emerging from conflict through effective partnership at regional and continental levels; supporting domestic financing for conflict resolution and stabilization; and promoting the use of mediators for conflict resolution, including traditional conflict resolution mechanisms.

As a result, spectacular progress was recorded towards reaching the MDGs; however, most of

Africa lags behind on all the goals (AfDB, 2014).

Great strides have been made in access to education, gender parity in primary and secondary education, number of seats held by women in national parliament, AIDS incidence and malaria.

But Africa is the second most unequal region in the world. It remains the poorest continent with the highest fertility rates, lowest labour productivity, lowest education learning achievements, poorest access to essential medicines and lowest technological connectivity. None of the fragile/ conflict-affected states will achieve any of the goals, with the exception of Liberia which is on track to meet MDG 4.

African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) accounts for different elements implemented by the AU and other regional agencies to consolidate peace keeping and security efforts in the continent. The structure includes: a policymaking body (Peace and Security Council, PCS); a centre for analysis and data collection (Continental Early

Warning System, CEWS); military structures; an advisory body of outside mediation; and a special fund to finance the operations.

Pillar Six: Financing and

Partnership for Implementation of the post-2015 Development

Agenda

MDGs were successful in mobilizing resources.

While a causal relationship has not been definitively established, there is growing consensus that

MDGs have improved and increased the targeting and flow of aid and other investments in development. Between 1992 and 1997, total aid plummeted by more than 20 percent. At the time of the

September 2000 United Nations Summit when the MDGs were adopted, total aid was around $60 billion per year. However, by 2005, aid had doubled to approximately $120 billion per year, and has remained at this level ever since (Moss, 2010:

Financing the MDGs was discussed and formulated long after the ratification of the MDGs.

This has negatively impacted on the availability of adequate resources to finance the MDGs in many of the resource-poor countries. Hence, one of the lessons learned from the MDGs is that the discussions and negotiations around the post-

2015 Development Agenda should not be separated from financing and partnership. This is the reason for which Africa has taken “financing and

partnership” as one of the key priorities of the CAP on post-2015 Development Agenda. This part of this report, therefore, provides some background, issues and key considerations for improving financing and partnership post-2015 so as to favour African priorities and their implementation.

What are the issues concerning partnership and financing of future development in Africa?

Since the resources are insufficient to have a significant impact, many countries will have to reform their policies and improve service delivery for more effective additional spending. In some countries, the problem is not the amount of money available to the government, but the way it is managed to ensure value for money. A

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

119

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda supporting policy and institutional environment also enhances effectiveness of ODA and catalyses additional resources. Strengthening parliamentarians’ and civil society’s ability to monitor and challenge the effectiveness of use of money is a key dimension that needs to be strengthened.

The post-2015 landscape will be substantially different from the time the MDG compact was drawn up, at the turn of the Millennium in 2000.

The structure of the global economy has changed.

Millions of people in emerging markets and Africa have been lifted out of poverty. The global financial crisis has metamorphosed into a global recession.

Today, ODA budgets are under greater pressure from a tepid global economic environment and heavy fiscal burdens on several major donors.

Even if the 0.7 ODA to GNI United Nations target and the 2008 G8 Gleneagles pledges were met and resources available from increasingly prominent non-DAC donors were added, ODA alone would be inadequate to achieve the next set of development goals.

What should be the key considerations for improving the effectiveness of post-2015 financing?

African countries need additional resources for the implementation of the post-2015 Development Agenda. Significant resources need to be mobilized from a variety of sources and the effective use of financing should also be ensured.

These resources mainly include: inclusive and innovative private sector resources that are emerging; and better and smarter aid. A feasible approach to financing post-2015 MDGs must rely on a two-pronged strategy, first to ensure that the maximum impact of available resources, and then, to increase these resources. Progress on the first part of the strategy is a necessary condition for progress on the second prong; by enhancing the impact on development of existing resources, including through good policies and credible institutions, additional resources are more likely to become available from both donors and the private sector.

Domestic sources will form the basis for sustainable financing in Africa. Tax revenues are already ten times larger than aid in the African continent. Over the past decade, tax revenues have been rising across the developing world. This is a potential source for financing the post-2015

Development Agenda. Africa needs to improve domestic resource mobilization by ensuring financial deepening and inclusion (e.g. domestic savings and microfinance), and strengthening the tax structure, coverage and administration.

There is also a huge potential for applying innovative mechanisms and harnessing the private sector. These innovative mechanisms, inter alia, are for: securitizing and investing remittances; reducing remittance transfer costs and enhancing their effective management; developing and strengthening long-term, non-traditional financing mechanisms (e.g. Diaspora bonds); and securing development financing for states emerging from conflict and post-conflict situations (AfDB,

2013). Indeed, the range of potential sources of financing, particularly from the private sector, and new forms of public-private partnerships, are greater today than they were when the original

MDGs were adopted.

But this is not true for each country individually; aid will still be a key source for some categories of countries. Each country has its own challenges and endowments, policy and institutional development priorities and range of available financing sources. Some countries have no hope of raising enough tax revenue, thus aid is crucial. But this aid should be complemented by urgent efforts to strengthen their ability to raise revenue and to counter illicit capital flight. Furthermore, many fragile or conflict-affected states will continue to rely on concessional donor resources, but in a fiscally constrained world, the availability of even these limited resources will depend on the quality of domestic policies and institutions.

Another major factor to take into consideration is the loss of revenues due to illicit capital flight. This includes all cross-border capital flows of illegal origin: drug trafficking, smuggling, fraud, corruption, bribery, embezzlement and tax evasion. Only

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Analysing the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda recently, Global Financial Integrity provided an updated estimate of illicit capital flows in 2009, of

$600 billion from the developing world. A recent report by the World Bank (2013) indicates that illicit financial flows from developing countries in

2010 ranged from $859 to $1,138 billion.

This results from reducing both the domestic resources and tax revenues available for productive purposes as well as domestic investment.

More coordinated international action is needed to ensure that funds illicitly leaving developing countries can no longer be stored in tax havens, which are mostly located in donor countries.

A new spirit of solidarity, cooperation and mutual accountability should underpin partnerships in the post-2015 agenda. The new global framework should support a stable global financial architecture that promotes global systemic economic risk management, emphasizes financial and investment flows as opposed to aid, and promotes a fair and inclusive multilateral trading system.

This requires a conducive, global environment that: promotes mutually beneficial partnerships consistent with ownership, coherence and alignment of international support with national and regional priorities; facilitates technology and skills transfer, taking into account Africa’s specific characteristics; promotes public-private partnerships; boosts intra-African trade; promotes

Africa’s access to global markets and a fair trade system; and ensures that the global governance architecture is inclusive, responsive, equitable and accountable.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

121

SECTION IV

Conclusions and policy perspectives

Africa’s progress on all the MDG indicators has gathered momentum in recent years. Although the continent is on target to achieve only two of the goals, MDGs 2 and 3, the rate of progress attests to the remarkable effort made by policy-makers. Poverty rates are declining in the context of rapid growth. Although there are not enough jobs being created in Africa, job growth exceeds the global average. Working poverty in

Africa is on the decline as is the incidence of vulnerable employment. However, despite this trend, the quality of jobs still remains a challenge as evidenced by the high prevalence of vulnerable jobs and poor workers.

Access to improved sanitation and water sources is relatively low in Africa, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases.

Environmental threats in Africa stem largely from the loss of forest cover. In addition, rising CO

2 emissions in a number of countries is cause for concern, particularly given the continent’s structural transformation aspirations.

The level of income inequality in Africa is also high but declining. The high levels of inequality, however, undermine that pace of poverty reduction in Africa; thus focused policy interventions is required.

ODA flows to Africa have declined in recent years ostensibly due to the global economic crisis.

At the same time, donors continue to fall short of their aid commitments. Increasing revenues through trade and domestic resource mobilization will therefore become increasingly important to offset shortfalls in ODA. The evidence suggests that agricultural subsidies in OECD countries have declined, however; concerted efforts are therefore required to ensure a more fair global trade architecture that addresses non-tariff barriers and facilitates access of processed good to developed country markets.

Efforts to reduce hunger and malnutrition are yielding mixed results. The proportion of underweight children has declined appreciably; however, most countries are performing poorly on the

Global Hunger Index and little progress has been achieved in reducing the prevalence of undernourished children.

Progress on health indicators has been robust, but this is an area where the likelihood of achieving the MDGs is the least likely. Maternal and child mortality rates on the continent remain unacceptably high. Further, although it appears that the rising prevalence of HIV/ AIDS has been reversed in Africa, the level remains high; Africa accounts for the bulk of HIV/AIDS cases and related deaths, which further complicates efforts to address TB prevalence

122

Based on these observations, the following recommendations are suggested:

Addressing poverty, unemployment and underemployment

Interventions to reduce unemployment and underemployment include the following:

• Macro-economic policy must target employment creation together with price stability.

• African countries endowed with natural resources should pursue a commodity-based industrialization strategy to create decent jobs through value addition. In parallel, revenues

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Conclusions and policy perspectives from primary commodity exports should be channelled into developing fiscally sustainable social protection programmes that enhance human capital development and labour productivity.

• National policies and strategies designed to improve productivity, income and working conditions of the informal sector (especially in women-dominated sectors) are critical to substantially reduce vulnerable employment, particularly for women.

• Governments must set the priority for public actions on jobs that have the greatest returns on development given each country’s development context.

• It is essential to pursue pragmatic and proactive policies and programmes that continually bridge infrastructure gaps, particularly energy, transport, irrigation, telecommunications and water supply.

• Social protection programmes should be implemented in order to address the needs of the vulnerable and improve the productive capacities of the labour force.

• The gender gap in inequality should be closed by instituting: conditional cash transfers that prioritize women and girls; curricula reforms and gender-sensitive teaching methods; measures against gender-based violence in schools; and affirmative action programmes to ensure the full participation of girls in school.

Improving productivity and human capital

Primary school enrolment rates in Africa are on the rise; however, completion rates and educational quality remain low. Interventions to improve will therefore include the following:

• Teachers’ professional development should be improved.

• Recurrent crises in the Horn of Africa and the

Sahel should be addressed by promoting investments in agricultural productivity and building community resilience to deal with natural disasters.

Addressing inequality in all its dimensions

Inequality in Africa is multidimensional. The report has demonstrated that spatial (i.e. rural urban), horizontal (i.e. gender), economic (e.g. income and asset) and social inequalities appear to be the most prevalent manifestations of inequality on the continent. The following interventions will therefore be pertinent to address inequalities:

• Integrated rural development programmes should be integrated, creating growth poles or clusters in rural communities.

• The educational curricula should be upgraded with a strong component on in-school assessment and systematic evaluation of learning achievements.

• The provision of adequate text books and other ICT-based pedagogic materials should be ensured.

• Access to quality early childhood care and development should be enhanced.

• Educational management and planning capacities should be upgraded.

Improving health conditions

High rates of child and maternal mortality, HIV and AIDS, TB and malaria are among the key MDG health-related challenges in Africa. Addressing these challenges will require:

• Agricultural productivity should be improved to enhance rural livelihoods and ensure a predictable supply of raw materials for manufacturing.

• access to antenatal care and skilled birth attendants;

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

123

Conclusions and policy perspectives

• improved availability of contraceptives to stem the high incidence of adolescent birth rates;

• expanded access to Insecticide Treated bed

Nets (ITNs) and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to reduce malaria prevalence and incidence rates;

• improved ART coverage for HIV positive TB patients; utilization of affordable technologies in the delivery of financial services;

• closing loopholes that facilitate licit and illicit financial outflows. The illicit outflow of resources greatly exceeds ODA received in

Africa.

Managing external financing

Managing external financing will therefore require the following:

• censure and effective TB preventive treatment for people living with HIV/AIDS.

Mobilizing resources for development

The dampening effect of the global economic on

ODA materialized in Africa in the 2011-2012 period when bilateral ODA to Africa declined 9 percent in real terms, and total aid to Southern, East, Central and West Africa declined by 5 percent. These trends call for more effective use of ODA and increased domestic resource mobilization to fill funding gaps. To this end, the following recommendations are suggested to improve domestic resource mobilization, strengthen management of external resources and finance infrastructure development:

Improving domestic resource mobilization

Improving domestic resource mobilization will therefore require the following interventions :

• improved coordination in the management of external inflows;

• closer alignment of external inflows with national priorities;

• reduced cost of remittances;

• continued advocacy for donors to meet their commitments and use external resources to leverage domestic resource mobilization capacities.

Financing regional infrastructure and industrial development

Interventions on financing regional infrastructure and industrial development include the following:

• exploring untapped and new financing sources and instruments such as the International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) global infrastructure fund, sovereign wealth funds, local and diaspora bonds, and finance;

• strengthening tax enforcement capabilities and the quality of information on existing and potential taxpayers;

• overcoming the constraints of short term commercial lending by developing partial risk guarantees and other risk-sharing mechanisms to extend the maturity of loans. . • developing progressive tax regimes to avoid exacerbating inequalities;

• ensuring value for money by strengthening audit institutions and instituting and/ or implementing reforms in public financial management, transparency and governance;

• adopting mixed or blended financing measures, including PPPs.

• reducing country and political risk perceptions by creating an enabling legal and regulatory framework to ensure sustainability of long-term projects. • strengthening financial intermediation and inclusion by encouraging innovation and the

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

• building in-country capacity to structure viable, bankable projects that can attract private sector investment;

• developing country-level industrial and infrastructure plans, which need to build on major regional and continental platforms such as

NEPAD’s Programme for Infrastructural Development in Africa (PIDA) to leverage funds.

Conclusions and policy perspectives

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

125

ANNEX 1: Selected Official

Development Assistance Flows

Table 10.1 Net ODA disbursements to developing nations

  2003 2010 2011

Country

Australia

Austria

Net

Disbursement

2,696

718

% of

GNI

0.25

0.2

Net

Disbursement

4,479

1,295

% of

GNI

0.32

0.32

Net

Disbursement

4,983

1,111

612

3,458

11,594

467

322

5 467

286

3,914

455

2,927

3,412

2,152

7,482

2,689

3,514

2,593

779

10,253

8,980

542

19

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea, Rep.

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

United

Kingdom

United

States

19,652

941

3,185

11,921

1,246

444

6,757

387

5,011

3,217

5,606

3,030

1,443

13,741

13,743

539

31

686

6,305

5,080

2,710

13,913

0.86

0.8

0.23

0.92

0.39

0.17

0.2

0.06

0.22

0.23

0.79

0.36

0.34

0.4

0.28

0.21

0.17

0.6

0.24

0.84

0.35

0.15

31,000 0.21

30,920

1.05

0.81

0.26

1.05

0.52

0.15

0.2

0.12

0.29

0.43

0.97

0.39

0.57

0.5

0.39

0.17

0.29

0.64

0.34

0.91

0.55

914

4,326

10,831

1,325

409

6,344

424

4,756

2,807

5,459

2,931

1,406

12,997

14,093

425

26

708

4,173

5,603

3,051

13,832

0.2

30,130

0.51

0.2

0.18

0.12

0.46

0.39

0.15

0.21

% of

GNI

0.34

0.27

0.54

0.32

0.85

0.53

0.31

0.29

1.02

0.45

0.56

0.97

0.75

0.28

0.96

2012

Net

Disbursement

5,399

1,173

2,454

5,654

2,852

1,400

12,815

13,811

356

27

859

2,928

10,713

1,604

415

5,927

431

4,772

85

2,197

5,408

3,212

13,762

0.48

0.13

0.17

0.14

0.46

0.38

0.13

0.22

% of

GNI

0.36 

0.28

0.47

0.32

0.84

0.53

0.27

0.15

0.99

0.45

0.56

1

0.71

0.28

0.93

0.19

Source: UNSD, July 2013.

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Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Annex 1: Selected Official Development Assistance Flows

Table 10.2 Net Disbursements of ODA to Africa, by subregion, selected years

  2003 2010 2011 2012 Percent change 2011–12

Chad

Comoros

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Congo, Rep.

Côte  d’Ivoire

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Gabon

Gambia

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Africa total

North Africa total

Algeria

Egypt

Libya

Morocco

Tunisia

Rest of Africa, total

Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Cape Verde

Central African Rep.

Madagascar

Malawi

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mozambique

1,330.92

-54.51

25.57

624.63

176.71

130.20

411.41

41.39

95.47

126.94

14.83

6,518.54

44.36

367.43

48.46

23.84

251.10

490.46

257.12

35.76

361.53

164.68

976.55

120.41

42.84

25,201.06

2,011.27

229.02

992.40

.

448.26

276.64

22,644.91

296.87

413.91

369.33

177.89

-23.09

951.94

2,015.39

85.46

34.96

935.08

93.69

55.15

1,201.27

97.33

724.36

295.14

22.41

2,432.30

1,223.91

448.91

102.04

78.18

38.76

161.83

347.05

110.49

473.13

293.93

270.76

246.54

117.63

30,370.99

1,610.01

144.98

374.84

17.75

607.09

352.95

27,650.04

220.76

550.42

708.65

106.22

58.34

1,407.83

1,965.15

58.55

35.96

894.42

79.18

49.57

1,547.45

151.81

511.06

243.79

26.75

4,138.53

164.88

686.29

86.26

20.24

32.98

119.95

432.98

91.13

446.40

264.45

310.74

206.65

105.39

32,001.29

2,358.34

111.63

206.86

464.45

830.35

462.19

28,418.50

220.70

447.81

776.49

123.89

107.45

1,666.68

1,839.18

60.88

30.51

853.54

146.56

37.18

1,669.70

160.17

339.08

251.86

31.60

1,666.83

48.27

2,102.01

86.16

13.44

15.36

133.92

262.24

63.37

538.30

226.16

257.52

218.96

73.26

30,494.05

1,893.07

98.95

305.25

103.61

899.21

375.54

27,257.35

188.06

645.68

739.83

167.97

86.34

1,488.53

-6.41

3.98

-15.16

-4.57

85.10

-24.99

7.90

5.51

-33.65

3.31

18.13

-59.72

-70.72

206.29

-0.12

-33.60

-53.43

-14.79

44.19

-4.72

35.58

-19.65

-10.69

11.65

-39.43

-30.46

20.59

-14.48

-17.13

5.96

-30.49

-4.71

-19.73

-11.36

47.56

-77.69

8.29

-18.75

-4.09

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

127

Annex 1: Selected Official Development Assistance Flows

 

Namibia

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sao Tome &Principe

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Somalia

South Africa

St. Helena

Sudan

Swaziland

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

6.72

267.29

170.68

627.61

21.21

439.69

17.22

1,292.37

2003

146.59

328.24

253.73

282.95

32.98

420.47

60.90

768.87

780.21

209.83

29.95

210.22

325.80

851.95

57.28

1,615.94

32.66

1,735.24

2010

221.13

394.37

889.18

571.05

32.48

546.98

255.19

1,081.59

621.50

556.00

6.33

173.66

742.90

1,022.30

79.65

658.35

67.44

1,643.98

2011

239.34

293.36

860.35

581.89

35.35

577.10

310.30

984.16

696.05

533.31

Source: OECD, 2013.

6.03

191.10

667.88

684.48

168.23

471.24

54.67

1,772.02

2012

200.98

425.78

898.85

424.64

28.47

712.36

114.57

936.51

653.68

673.01

Percent change 2011–12

-16.03

45.14

4.47

-27.02

-19.46

23.44

-4.74

10.04

-10.10

-33.05

111.21

-28.42

-18.94

7.79

-63.08

-4.84

-6.09

26.19

Table 10.3 ODA by sector as a percentage of total allocation

Sector 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Social Infrastructure & Services 36.01

Economic Infrastructure &

Services

Production Sectors

Multi-Sector /Cross-Cutting

Commodity Aid / General

Prog. Ass.

Action Relating to Debt

Humanitarian Aid

12.22

6.25

6.72

3.81

17.92

6.59

Unallocated / unspecified

Total

10.49

100

Source: OECD, 2013.

40.69

14.6

6.73

7.88

4.56

10.29

6.7

8.55

100

39.08

42.25

17.32

16.6

7.12

7.51

6.59

8.23

8.95

6.52

7.12

6.94

8.31

100

1.77

7.3

8.36

100

38.63

39.96

18.26

17.8

37.4

20.99

7.72

9.15

9.88

12.61

10.54

10.57

4.13

3.77

3.92

2.92

8.02

7.71

100

2.62

7.39

8.77

100

1.64

7.34

8.25

100

Percentage change 2011–12

-2.56

3.19

0.73

0.03

0.15

-0.98

-0.05

-0.52

 

128

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

ANNEX 2: Official List of MDG

Indicators

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Goals and Targets (from the Millennium Declaration) Indicators for monitoring progress

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality 

 

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

1.1 Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day

*

1.2 Poverty gap ratio

1.3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

1.4 Growth rate of GDP per person employed

1.5 Employment-to-population ratio

1.6 Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) per day

1.7 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment

1.8 Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age

1.9 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

2.1 Net enrolment ratio in primary education

2.2 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary

2.3 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

3.1 Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education

3.2 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

3.3 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

4.1 Under-five mortality rate

4.2 Infant mortality rate

4.3 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles

Goal 5: Improve maternal health 

Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and

2015, the maternal mortality ratio

Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

5.1 Maternal mortality ratio

5.2 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

5.3 Contraceptive prevalence rate

5.4 Adolescent birth rate

5.5 Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits)

5.6 Unmet need for family planning

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

129

Annex 2: Official List of MDG Indicators

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Goals and Targets (from the Millennium Declaration)

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Indicators for monitoring progress

 

 

 

 

Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

Target 6.B:Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it

Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

6.1 HIV prevalence among the population aged 15-24 years

6.2 Condom use at last high-risk sex

6.3 Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS

6.4 Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years

6.5 Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs

6.6 Incidence and death rates associated with malaria

6.7 Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide-treated bednets

6.8 Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malarial drugs

6.9 Incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis

6.10 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse

  the loss of environmental resources

  

Target 7.B:Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss

Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

7.1 Proportion of land area covered by forest

7.2 CO

2

emissions, total, per capita and per $1 GDP (PPP)

7.3 Consumption of ozone-depleting substances

7.4 Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological limits

7.5 Proportion of total water resources used

7.6 Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected

7.7 Proportion of species threatened with extinction

7.8 Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source

7.9 Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility

7.10 Proportion of urban population living in slums

**

130

Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Goals, 2014

Annex 2: Official List of MDG Indicators

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Goals and Targets (from the Millennium Declaration)

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Indicators for monitoring progress

Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system

Some of the indicators listed below are monitored separately for the least developed countries (LDCs), Africa, landlocked developing countries and small island developing States.

Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both nationally and internationally

Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries

Includes: tariff and quota free access for the least developed countries’ exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous

ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction

Official development assistance (ODA)

8.1 Net ODA, total and to the least developed countries, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors’ gross national income

8.2 Proportion of total bilateral, sector-allocable ODA of OECD/DAC donors to basic social services (basic education, primary health care, nutrition, safe water and sanitation)

8.3 Proportion of bilateral official development assistance of OECD/DAC donors that is untied

8.4 ODA received in landlocked developing countries as a proportion of their gross national incomes

8.5 ODA received in small island developing States as a proportion of their gross national incomes

Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States

(through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable

Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the

General Assembly)

Market access

8.6 Proportion of total developed country imports (by value and excluding arms) from developing countries and least developed countries, admitted free of duty

8.7 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products and textiles and clothing from developing countries

8.8 Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as a percentage of their gross domestic product

8.9 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity

Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term

Debt sustainability

8.10 Total number of countries that have reached their

HIPC decision points and number that have reached their

HIPC completion points (cumulative)

8.11 Debt relief committed under HIPC and multilateral debt relief initiatives (MDRI) Initiatives

8.12 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services

8.13 Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis

Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries

Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

8.14 Fixed-telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants

8.15 Mobile-cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants

8.16 Internet users per 100 inhabitants

* For monitoring country poverty trends, indicators based on national poverty lines should be used, where available.

** The actual proportion of people living in slums is measured by a proxy, represented by the urban population living in households with at least one of the four characteristics: (a) lack of access to improved water supply; (b) lack of access to improved sanitation; (c) overcrowding (3 or more persons per room); and (d) dwellings made of non-durable material.

The actual proportion of people living in slums is measured by a proxy, represented by the urban population living in households with at least one of the four characteristics: (i) lack of access to improved water supply; (ii) lack of access to improved sanitation; (iii) overcrowding (3 or more persons per room); and (iv) dwellings made of non-durable material.

Analysis of the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda

131

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